stormtrack discord - 03-12-19_nm

Freshgeek 08-Mar-19 11:31 AM

Ayyyy, Wake up southern plains

CptProtato 08-Mar-19 11:32 AM

Freshgeek 08-Mar-19 11:32 AM

seanbarg 08-Mar-19 11:32 AM

B. Dean Berry 08-Mar-19 11:32 AM

Angelo 08-Mar-19 11:43 AM

Ruh roh Raggy

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 08-Mar-19 11:43 AM

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 08-Mar-19 12:24 PM

Wednesday's got my attention further E

BJC9533 08-Mar-19 01:12 PM

Don’t burn a PTO day for Tuesday. I beg you.

Freshgeek 08-Mar-19 01:13 PM

burn 2 PTO for tuesday -Bigly

wxandnews 08-Mar-19 01:17 PM

monsoonman1 08-Mar-19 01:18 PM

Don’t do it man

wxandnews 08-Mar-19 01:18 PM

I’m not lol

Troy4321 08-Mar-19 01:19 PM

I’ll be out no matter what hoping to snag something good north of del rio

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BJC9533 08-Mar-19 01:36 PM

Massive upscale growth inbound

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312will 08-Mar-19 01:38 PM

If it soaks the areas in the Panhandles that are under slight drought, that's good for us all.

BJC9533 08-Mar-19 01:46 PM

Yes!

yt-ScienceOutThere 08-Mar-19 03:13 PM

Make EML average again.

BJC9533 08-Mar-19 03:21 PM

EML isn’t the problem per se

A stronger EML would help but with the forcing anticipated that would just enhance instability and wind potential

Forcing + upslope = quick upscale

yt-ScienceOutThere 08-Mar-19 03:51 PM

Seems like that's more ideal early in the season though or with Dixie.

seanbarg 08-Mar-19 04:58 PM

has been pretty damn consistent with this strong line coming through - hasnt really switched the timing in a few runs either

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BJC9533 08-Mar-19 05:17 PM

Just look at the amplitude of the trough and the ejection/position

Mega force

Of the 100+ sig severe cases we looked at a few year ago at SPC during my time doing research there our composites for upscale growth events feature a deep trough, really, placed where this one is progged to go with development farther west in the high plains.

This fits very well with our cases in which sig severe occurred in our domain (mostly along and east of I-35)

And was already grown upscale

seanbarg 08-Mar-19 05:19 PM

yea looks pretty textbook

I fully expect it to wake me up in the middle of the night

or not be able to sleep knowing its coming

BJC9533 08-Mar-19 05:20 PM

If ya take PTO off hoping for supercells just don’t. Save that for a sweet day in May

Will 08-Mar-19 10:33 PM

E-M-L

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seanbarg 09-Mar-19 11:49 AM

BJC9533 09-Mar-19 11:52 AM

Yeah things will kick off out west

312will 09-Mar-19 11:54 AM

If there's any chance of pre squall discrete, I'll be up for a drive. Mostly as an excuse to get a road trip in on my birthday, tbh.

This could be a nice little sideshow for @Troy4321 down in Big Bend.

Troy4321 09-Mar-19 11:58 AM

Yeah I’m excited for sure seems like it’s trending a little slower so there should be a good light show at night

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312will 09-Mar-19 11:59 AM

Post up on the west side looking east, get lightning on backside of Chisos Mountains

Troy4321 09-Mar-19 01:12 PM

Thanks!

312will 09-Mar-19 02:50 PM

Near Junction, Texas around midnight.

Will 09-Mar-19 03:40 PM

very aggressive

BJC9533 09-Mar-19 03:43 PM

The timing on these early season troughs always seems to be too late or early lol

Trough swings through like 12z Weds, inducing a damn sub 980 low yikesly

Although I don't like these super bombing lows in the Plains. Always kicks the surface front or dry line way the fuck east and separates instability from shear. Nonetheless could be an active day Tuesday, just not sure it's worth chasing (although, that is always in the eyes of the beholder). Better days wait.

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yt-ScienceOutThere 09-Mar-19 04:25 PM

Don't worry, in a few months we will be complaining that all 10 consecutive short waves were late or early, and May ONLY had 400 tornadoes because of it.

BJC9533 09-Mar-19 04:25 PM

Fine with me

Margin for error in May is pretty big

BJC9533 09-Mar-19 07:15 PM

Didn’t realize NAM was in range

Looks kinda bigly but probably also gonna be nasty forcing

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 09-Mar-19 07:22 PM

This day would be the day to go nuts considering the lack of hype for it lol

BJC9533 09-Mar-19 07:24 PM

Yeah

Idk man my research composites match this well and it screams MCS

Some amazing profiles on the NAM tho

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 09-Mar-19 07:24 PM

Oh I don’t disagree given the forcing

BJC9533 09-Mar-19 07:24 PM

Classic high plains tornado stuff

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 09-Mar-19 07:25 PM

But I’m also wondering if this amplified flow might work out there

Since it has before

Syryquil 09-Mar-19 07:34 PM

How can you tell the amount of forcing? I've always been unclear on that

bo_sox48 09-Mar-19 07:37 PM

That was today's conversation in #st-academy-advanced

I'll copy and paste Brandon's answer because he said it better than I would

Frontogenesis plots, omega at various levels, vertical velocities if you want explicit values What is more helpful is 1) gauging degree of height falls. Heights falling -> thermo profile below that height is cooling. So if heights fall X amount over 6 hours at 500 mb, that means the thermo profile below 500 mb is cooling as a whole. In most cases, this is from increasing CVA with height. Which means that air is rising, and as air rises, it cools. The stronger the height falls, the stronger the ascent. 2) Vorticity advection should be considered as well. Pull a 500 mb vorticity chart for this weekend. Huge vorticity max swinging thru the plains = big ascent. When vorticity is adverted on a pressure level, air rises (if positive). Sinks if negative. Sorry I got that wrong. Heights fall due to vorticity advection on a single level. Heights fall due to differential thermal advection (increasing warm air advection with height = falling heights) 3) always have to consider other sources of lift. Surface convergence, dryline circulation, jet dynamics, etc all play a factor with varying levels of lift associated with it

Syryquil 09-Mar-19 07:41 PM

Gotta save this

Lemme move to #st-academy-advanced

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 11:32 AM

Sorry just putting my thoughts about Tuesdays setup

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 11:53 AM

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PARCELS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND PRONOUNCED FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS REGION. STRONG SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WITH THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.

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Troy4321 10-Mar-19 12:04 PM

I’m hoping my hotel near big bend has a over hang just in case of hail because there would be some base balls with most intense convection.

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 01:34 PM

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Trying to increase hype

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 01:36 PM

are you thinking about chasing some of it?

timing seems really off for a good chase

453Braxton 10-Mar-19 01:39 PM

"Isolated supercells"

312will 10-Mar-19 02:16 PM

I may do it knowing it's going to be a poor chase. I want to try out a couple of mounts and lenses, plus get my Sony stuff dialed in (I'm switching from Canon).

Not interested in the QLCS component, just the 'isolated supercell' portion.

Hexzie 10-Mar-19 02:50 PM

@312will welcome to the Sony gang!

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 02:58 PM

I'm thinking about going, even if it's a sqaull chase at least it will not be in the jungle. Can enjoy some good lightning

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312will 10-Mar-19 03:02 PM

@hexzie Can't wait to try out the A9 and Laowa 15mm combo

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 04:56 PM

NAM bringing the goods at 00z for you Troy

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Troy4321 10-Mar-19 05:05 PM

I know I’m actually pretty excited the LCLs should be pretty high which is my favorite for lightning and structure shots

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 05:09 PM

are you going to arrive early enough to get all set up?

Troy4321 10-Mar-19 05:19 PM

Yeah I’m leaving my place at 7am I’ll be there by 3ish

Angelo 10-Mar-19 05:22 PM

Jesus Texas is so big. I forget that sometimes.

Troy4321 10-Mar-19 05:23 PM

Yeah and it’s not like I’m on the opposite side or anything either I’m sure you can be 13+ hours away from places in Texas

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:23 PM

yeah that state is humongous

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:25 PM

Nine hour drive from my apt

to Tuesday's target area

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 05:25 PM

The halfway point from Beaumont, Tx to Los Angeles is still in Texas

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453Braxton 10-Mar-19 05:25 PM

Damn

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 05:25 PM

the drive to Big Bend is also uber boring after you hit i10

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:26 PM

no drive is boring when it's for tornadoes!

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Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 05:26 PM

strong disagree

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:26 PM

Drive from Norman to South Dakota in 2017 was lit

12+ hours

was fun... Tiring, but fun

Then turned around and saw 5-7 tornadoes on 6/12/7

17*

312will 10-Mar-19 05:27 PM

7.5 hours from here in Austin to Big Bend. 8. 5 to El Paso. Eight to Dalhart north of Amarillo. Six to South Padre. Six to Louisiana. Six to Arkansas.

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:29 PM

Shreveport to Norman shouldn't be a 6 hour drive at all

And yet it is

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 05:29 PM

Big Bend is so huge it takes nearly an hour to drive across it

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:30 PM

Cedar Rapids to KC is 4.5 hours

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 05:30 PM

and upon entering the park you have to drive like 30 minutes to see anything

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:30 PM

it seems super far away but it really isnt

I'll have to be keeping that in mind

And I can get to Nebraska in 3 hours

well 3.5

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:31 PM

What if I told you......

That 3/3/19 wouldn't even crack the top 5 of 2019 tornado events? :oof:

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 10-Mar-19 05:32 PM

That’s 14 hours

Looks way smaller

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:32 PM

and I can get to central nebraska in 5 hours. Wooooooow, I way overestimated the trip to the plains

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 10-Mar-19 05:32 PM

Lol

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:33 PM

Hell northeast KS is 5 hours too

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 05:34 PM

whatchu jabbering about this Texas talk section

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:34 PM

no this is how close I found out the plains are section

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:35 PM

yeah I'm like 5.5 hours from KC

Troy4321 10-Mar-19 05:35 PM

I’m only 5 hours from OKC that’s pretty surprising actually

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:35 PM

OKC is 10 hours from here

RIP

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:36 PM

same for me

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:37 PM

That's still out of range. but NE KS and E NE are in range

I'm willing to drive 6 hours for a setup. Once you get to 7-8, you're really pushing it

for now at least

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 05:37 PM

10 hours is in range for you

You’re in collehe

312will 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

I'll fly for the right setup, but that's probably in May or June.

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

Nothing stopping you

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

But also poor and I do not have the stamina to drive 10 hours on my own

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

10 hours is nothing

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

6? Probably, 10? No.

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

I really don't understand the "don't have the stamina" to drive stuff lol

312will 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

16 hours is my range.

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:38 PM

I've heard that from people.. it ain't a 5k or something. You sit in a seat lol

Yes, it's tiring as shit and rough

After my journey on 6/12/17 I was sick of driving

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:39 PM

I think 12 hours is my hard limit

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:39 PM

My hard limit depends on the setup

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 05:39 PM

I’ve gone 16 hours before I legitimately felt unsafe continuing

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:39 PM

My hard limit this season is likely to be 7 hours or so.

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

Would not recommend 16 hour drives

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

I'll do whatever to catch a big event.

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

that gets me SE SD, E NE, NE KS, all of S MN and N/C IL.

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

If I have to drive overnight Mike Marz style I might

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

If the season is in colorado and wyoming again I’ll do it

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

I'm more reluctant to go east though as storm motions take me further away and that is a minor thing to account for

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

luckily I can make it to just about any target outside of ND in under 12 hours

312will 10-Mar-19 05:40 PM

I drove from Kansas City to El Paso only for it to cap bust

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:41 PM

oh and far western TX and NM too I guess

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:41 PM

Though its gonna have to be a very attractive setup to get me to drive 6 hours for it.

Garrod 10-Mar-19 05:41 PM

(they don't count outside of chasecation for me though

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 05:41 PM

West TX, west Dakotas, and the high plains take effort for me

The rest is in range

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:41 PM

Not like extreme caliber, but reasonably confident

6 hours: https://i.gyazo.com/6e33e40a5a2af54a89a45ae50f54dd1f.png

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 05:46 PM

ooo, how did you make that?

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 05:46 PM

though I'd probably never go to IN for a setup unless its a 15% or something, the bar has to be high for me to go that far east

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 05:46 PM

#chaserchat

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 06:19 PM

Nest is showing iso sups! Its a 100% guarentee now

Angelo 10-Mar-19 06:31 PM

TV met just said “This low pressure system in the south may be the lowest...ever...”

B. Dean Berry 10-Mar-19 06:34 PM

Seems to me, Harrison, that there were people making a much further drive to the Plains, who were offering you the nav seat, no driving involved.

ThunderRolls 10-Mar-19 06:37 PM

That may have been the case

I dont like to commit to things

especially this far out. I dont ever see myself taking a chasecation, I like the case by case basis. it's really nice

I get to pick and choose my setups

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 06:44 PM

Enjoy it while you can because reality is gonna get ya someday

B. Dean Berry 10-Mar-19 06:45 PM

Speaking of, my travel time to OKC is 17 hours straight.

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 10-Mar-19 06:46 PM

About 12

Angelo 10-Mar-19 06:47 PM

16 from here

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:48 PM

0

B. Dean Berry 10-Mar-19 06:48 PM

Location privilege. (edited)

CptProtato 10-Mar-19 06:49 PM

Mine would be about 16-18 hours

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:49 PM

@B. Dean Berry I don't take it for granted either

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:50 PM

nobody wants to go to OKC though?

how did this thread get derailed again

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:50 PM

Dean did it

Blame him

bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 06:50 PM

If the event were good it might not get derailed

B. Dean Berry 10-Mar-19 06:50 PM

Abeline is even further.

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:51 PM

https://tenor.com/view/texas-flag-gif-9957363

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Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 10-Mar-19 06:53 PM

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:53 PM

I will only allow it because it is in the title of this channel

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:54 PM

This channel needs more

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:54 PM

lol is that ur real flag

what is that

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:54 PM

It is

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:54 PM

looks like an arrow through a pickle

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Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:54 PM

It's a native american peace pipe

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:54 PM

oh okay

Garrod 10-Mar-19 06:55 PM

https://tenor.com/view/illinois-flag-waving-windy-gif-11375063

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:55 PM

nayyy

Garrod 10-Mar-19 06:55 PM

damn the illinois flag is a lot more MURRICA than I thought it'd be

Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:55 PM

We love to pretend the horrific treatment of native Americans in this state didn't happen

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 06:55 PM

Guys focus on our 45 mph wind reports we will be sending in on Tuesday alright.

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 06:56 PM

*70mph becuase it will be

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Freshgeek 10-Mar-19 06:56 PM

PDS WIND

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Hank emotes are reserved for texas nonsense and I will ban those who use it elsewhere

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 06:56 PM

No hype=tors

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312will 10-Mar-19 06:57 PM

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Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 10-Mar-19 06:57 PM

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 10-Mar-19 07:00 PM

Make sure you have your passport ready on Tuesday

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bo_sox48 10-Mar-19 07:01 PM

Gonna need to bring your HAARP stopwatch too, I hear the border down there is a little slow

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312will 10-Mar-19 07:09 PM

And practice your 248nm Classic Reflectivity. WSR 88D ain't growing on cactus, and they don't make em in Chihuahua.

BJC9533 10-Mar-19 07:10 PM

cfs is poop

seanbarg 10-Mar-19 07:11 PM

well good thing we are in nam range

Troy4321 10-Mar-19 11:02 PM

Yeah I’m going to say Tuesday will be linear

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 10-Mar-19 11:02 PM

Go to the border

readyletsgo 10-Mar-19 11:13 PM

Darren Lo 10-Mar-19 11:14 PM

model runs for the border

Troy4321 10-Mar-19 11:25 PM

I mean I’ll be right on the border I’m hoping there is at least one pre line supercell (edited)

Stebo 11-Mar-19 12:07 AM

never know with a tail end charlie

also maybe a brief chance initially as well

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 12:08 AM

Yeah that’s true it should be a least fun to watch get some good shots from chiso mountain I hope

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 12:18 AM

Might be some damaging winds here even without storms. That is an absolute monster of a low level jet going with this thing

Stebo 11-Mar-19 12:20 AM

yeah they are already talking up the winds up this way for thursday

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 08:04 AM

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Pick the model with the brightest colors and go with it!

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wxandnews 11-Mar-19 08:49 AM

Just go wherever the highest STP values are

Guaranteed wedge

That’s how all the professional chasers do it I heard

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 09:52 AM

36 hour hrrr kinda hyping Eastern New Mexico

wxandnews 11-Mar-19 10:01 AM

Walter White Wedges

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:03 AM

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 10:03 AM

Not surprised that’s a pretty good environment in NM

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:06 AM

Since everyone will be chasing the blizzard, this will produce

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:31 AM

Hrrr is obviously over doing cape, but I love da hype

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 10:33 AM

yea that HRRR run is pretty spicy

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:33 AM

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5

Lol!

I need to make a phone call

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453Braxton 11-Mar-19 10:41 AM

Wedges for everyone!

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:50 AM

I don't see how the hrrr is even getting 3k Cape

312will 11-Mar-19 10:52 AM

Legendary eastern New Mexico magic?

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Troy4321 11-Mar-19 10:54 AM

I’m loving the hrrr it has the other supercell going right through the big bend

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:54 AM

That sup in big bend will drop melons

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 10:54 AM

I know I’m glad I’m not camping out

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:55 AM

Legendary forecasting by you to already be in position

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 10:55 AM

Hahah just incredible luck

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:56 AM

Gotta be good to be lucky

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 10:57 AM

Don’t worry I used accuweathers 70 day forecast when I was planning my trip s/

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Too bad the radar coverage down there is horrible

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:59 AM

Hrrr will take away a storm with every run now (edited)

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 11:09 AM

The storms are separate for like an hour on WRF-ARW, but

(edited)

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 11:13 AM

Everyone committed to the blizzard so the hrrr took action

Angelo 11-Mar-19 11:29 AM

If someone scores a NM wedge they’ll be a legend

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 11:31 AM

It's not 2018 anymore so I cant go call a rain shaft a wedge

readyletsgo 11-Mar-19 11:34 AM

well we have had one wedge already

Angelo 11-Mar-19 11:39 AM

A poopy tree wedge

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Weathernerd645 11-Mar-19 11:39 AM

#onewedgealready

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 12:17 PM

When doesn’t the 36hr HRRR look like the end of the world

3000 SBCAPE

Weathernerd645 11-Mar-19 12:18 PM

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 12:19 PM

The HRRR often has far too much CAPE at 36hrs and almost always corrects down at least somewhat leading up to the event

The last event did this

So did 2/23

Not sure about 3/3

Think we saw it there too

Weathernerd645 11-Mar-19 12:19 PM

also look at the dewpoint about 300 mb or so

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 12:20 PM

Yea, I’ve seen models do that

Not sure why, but it doesn’t seem to matter

One thing I don’t like, why does Gleason have tomorrow as a 2%. I think even with a linear mode, there’s enough low level shear to warrant a 5%

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 11-Mar-19 12:21 PM

Weathernerd645 11-Mar-19 12:22 PM

inb4 major outbreak cuz why not

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 12:30 PM

Cancellation of season coming at 18z

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 01:55 PM

https://skylifewx.com/2019/03/11/20190311-day-2-outlook/

bjc

20190311 Day 2 Outlook

1240 CDT Monday, March 11th 2019 For entertainment/educational use only. Discussion: Widespread cloud cover and convection is anticipated across eastern NM into western TX under strong ups…

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 02:04 PM

Solid

But not good enough. Need more

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BJC9533 11-Mar-19 02:15 PM

Not trying to bust again lol

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312will 11-Mar-19 02:19 PM

Can't wait for the 18z to

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Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 02:21 PM

Itll wait until we all drive out there then

312will 11-Mar-19 02:27 PM

I really do want to find an excuse to head west.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 02:28 PM

Yea it won't take much to convince me, sadly

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 02:58 PM

I can just feel the disappointment loading in

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 03:27 PM

The way I think about it is even if there aren’t any tornadoes the landscape is so much nicer and there are higher LCL’s so at least you’ll see some structure so a bust in this part of Texas is way better than in Dixie alley

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453Braxton 11-Mar-19 03:41 PM

https://twitter.com/StasIsChasing/status/1105179059615555589?s=19

Stas Speransky (@StasIsChasing)

Conceptually and historically, this 500mb setup should produce tornadoes tomorrow in New Mexico. Probably today as well, in NW NM. I’m guessing just east of Albuquerque tomorrow as the storms come off the mountains. May give it a shot as the WRF members start to show som...

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 03:46 PM

He’s been wrong pretty much every time he posted. So.. looks like 0 tornadoes tomorrow

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ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 03:46 PM

yea stas has had a rough start to say the least

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 03:58 PM

Lol naders today huh

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 03:59 PM

though I wouldnt be opposed if someone extended him an invite to this place

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 03:59 PM

I’m sure there will be a tornado or two in NM whether it’s worth it idk all I’m hoping for is some nice structure

Jon 11-Mar-19 03:59 PM

the only thing im looking forward to is how low the low will get

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 04:06 PM

Boo that isn’t even interesting

The deeper the low the more blasted the gulf gets

Need a :blast: emoji which is just a dewpoint map of the gulf after it gets obliterated

Jon 11-Mar-19 04:08 PM

so i either have to cheer for a record or cheer for the.. keeping the gulf in a nice and tornado healthy state?

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 04:10 PM

Yes

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 04:11 PM

18z HRRR still looks nice in NM

312will 11-Mar-19 04:11 PM

Currently considering driving out to Carlsbad tomorrow.

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 04:11 PM

@BJC9533 That could be better represented with like a square representing a dewpoint in the 20s or something like that

Jon 11-Mar-19 04:11 PM

hm. hard choice tbh, its still early in the year for tors. how long lived could the gulf destruction be from a mega low?

Garrod 11-Mar-19 04:12 PM

it would kill the rest of March and the first bit of April too.

Jon 11-Mar-19 04:12 PM

oh my. alright im ok with march dying but not april

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 04:12 PM

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 04:12 PM

Like this https://i.gyazo.com/28f20b59d4fd885f9d468f37c0070cc2.png

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 04:13 PM

New Mexico will produce due to lack of hype

312will 11-Mar-19 04:13 PM

Yee gonna yee.

10

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 04:14 PM

At least ill bust out west instead of east tomorrow

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 04:14 PM

still going at it with that 2500-3000 SBCAPE I see

312will 11-Mar-19 04:14 PM

Though I dont know where the cape comes from

Yeah

312will 11-Mar-19 04:23 PM

There's a Linear Air Taxi nonstop exec flight from Austin to Midland for $6800.

I mean, I am down for treating me to a birthday gift but ehhh.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 04:24 PM

I think tomorrow has potential to be good, just a very short window

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 04:25 PM

6800 for a flight from Austin to midland lol

Garrod 11-Mar-19 04:25 PM

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 04:25 PM

What plane is it? Some sort of business jet I’m sure

312will 11-Mar-19 04:25 PM

It's a seven hour drive to the SE NM area for me. Then chase, then sleep, then head back right in for a late arrival at work on Wednesday. Doable.

I guess if we ever hit $100 barrels of oil and you're an oil magnate it may make sense. For me, the 2017 Ford F250 will be more than adequate.

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 04:29 PM

Yea I don’t know what those planes are, any of them

bo_sox48 11-Mar-19 04:33 PM

Nothing special until you get up to the jet

And also apparently they charge a premium for IFR which means you should not count on them flying on a day where there’s gonna be storms lol

1

312will 11-Mar-19 04:36 PM

I think I could get out to SE NM, catch some early initiation, follow the storms back east for lightning.

Beats being in an office.

5

readyletsgo 11-Mar-19 06:08 PM

you really telling me after his passes we get 2+ weeks of no recovery?

that's reaaaaaaly long

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:42 PM

@readyletsgo check ensemble plots if you don’t believe me. Multiple shots to the gulf. No recovery.

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:47 PM

which ensembles?

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:54 PM

Pretty much any... it’s pretty clear we have at least 2, maybe 3 strong fronts coming through the Gulf over the next two weeks

Euro, GFS, etc

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:54 PM

I'd say closer to 10 days

readyletsgo 11-Mar-19 06:55 PM

Oh well happens every year

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:55 PM

It’s still gonna be a while for full recovery lol

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:55 PM

and that thing around day 10 is a low that forms in the gulf, I will believe that when it happens

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:55 PM

Eh

We will see

The gulf won’t truly open until laaaaate in the week 3ish period

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:56 PM

im not denying a shit pattern for about 10 days, but after that looks good

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:56 PM

At least judging by euro weeklies and what is at the end of the euro ensemble

The pattern does look nice after day 10, but the moisture will be sketchy at best

What we need is a strong southeast ridge

It serves two good purposes, both help Plains chases and Midwest chases materialize

readyletsgo 11-Mar-19 06:57 PM

We need a squiggly line to point to the number 1 or 2

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:57 PM

1) obviously, it helps pump gulf moisture deep into the Plains and Midwest

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:58 PM

lol are you explaining a southeast ridge lol

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:58 PM

2) less obvious, it helps guide waves to the north and east, these typically have better shear and instability (negative tilt waves especially), and aren’t as harsh with cold fronts

Keep in mind the varying level of experience that reads these posts

Yes, might be obvious to you, not so much to others

You can get a deep trough out west with shit for ridging out east, and yet you’ll only get upper 50s dews to wonder what could have been

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:59 PM

I think most understand the favorability of severe weather in the plains needs a ridge out west with moisture pumped northward over time

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:59 PM

Well you’re wrong

Stebo 11-Mar-19 06:59 PM

lol

ok

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 06:59 PM

Because for severe we need a ridge out east

Read your post

readyletsgo 11-Mar-19 07:00 PM

Lol

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:00 PM

i obviously meant east

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:00 PM

lighten up, y r u so sensitive

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:00 PM

y u always try to explain things when i post?

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:01 PM

I’m trying to lay shit out for the people here who might not intuitively know just how important having the ridging is. Downstream ridging is an afterthought to a lot of people.

‍♂️ I’m not teaching you shit. I’m explaining for other readers. Relax dude lol

Garrod 11-Mar-19 07:01 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DmYLrxR0Y8

Anon Omyst

WAR - WHY CAN'T WE BE FRIENDS

The legendary band WAR (NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED)

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:02 PM

just saying you like to 'explain' stuff right after i make a comment on it, this is like the 4th time in a week

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:04 PM

It’s not directed at you (or really, anyone). Just thinking out loud 90% of the time. Teaching is who I am.. I have been tasked with teaching synoptic meteorology at our hub here and devising a supercell/tornado forecast “flow chart” for the airmen and non-met Lts who got thrown in weather. I like explaining shit because 1) it’s cool to see the light go on for others and 2) it reminds me and keeps me aware of the fundamentals. It’s not meant to insult anyone’s schooling here.. just how I communicate. Don’t take it any sort of way mans

Jon 11-Mar-19 07:04 PM

maybe @BJC9533 is like morgan freeman in south park (he earns a freckle each time he explains things), maybe he also gets freckles

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:05 PM

So when I talk about things, half of the time I’m “explaining” something I’m just thinking out loud.

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:06 PM

its okay to have inner thoughts too

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:06 PM

Man, I didn’t know something so minor could irritate someone so much. Whatevs man. You can always just block me lol

Freshgeek 11-Mar-19 07:06 PM

So this set up is a thing

Let's get back on track pls

2

3

2

1

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:07 PM

yes I agree we can talk about the current system

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:08 PM

Did you.. did you just react to your own post

Freshgeek 11-Mar-19 07:08 PM

Of course

3

Weathernerd645 11-Mar-19 07:08 PM

i mean who wouldnt do that you know

Freshgeek 11-Mar-19 07:08 PM

Josh gets it

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:09 PM

Nerd

Freshgeek 11-Mar-19 07:09 PM

wants to know his weather this week

BJC9533 11-Mar-19 07:10 PM

Oof... don’t get the reference. Never watched KOTH

Garrod 11-Mar-19 07:10 PM

heresy

Weathernerd645 11-Mar-19 07:10 PM

koth sounds like some wierd indie band form austin

Garrod 11-Mar-19 07:10 PM

https://tenor.com/view/pocket-escape-sand-kingofthehill-gif-5129108

2

3

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:11 PM

2nd time in 2 days and still hilarious

Freshgeek 11-Mar-19 07:12 PM

Hank is reserved for texas discussions

Stebo 11-Mar-19 07:12 PM

https://tenor.com/view/king-of-the-hill-tornado-dale-gribble-hurricane-twister-gif-3722800

tornado tornado

B. Dean Berry 11-Mar-19 08:16 PM

Just saw that episode yesterday.

312will 11-Mar-19 08:22 PM

From NWS Midland: Progged wind fields through the column indicate the potential for a high end damaging wind event with wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph in the plains and over 90 mph in the mountains.

That's a dusty ass day out there Wednesday.

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 08:58 PM

oh god I imagine it will be

@453Braxton wrf was onto something last night based on that current severe warn

maybe a bit too far north tho

A for effort

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 09:02 PM

It feels good to charge the camera batteries and get the GoPro ready

I miss that

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 09:23 PM

https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2019031118_030_31.93--103.94.png