stormtrack discord - 03-12-19_nm

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 09:51 PM

and SW TX

https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2019031200_024_30.5--103.5.png

SW TX sounding

What in the holy hell

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 09:52 PM

Stebo 11-Mar-19 09:54 PM

wowza

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 09:54 PM

those cells initiating by KHDX are going to move NE rather than straight East like they do 90% of the time in the spring

yt-ScienceOutThere 11-Mar-19 09:54 PM

Buckle in bois seasons just waking up.

bo_sox48 11-Mar-19 09:54 PM

I’m going to clovis yall

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 09:55 PM

shoulda milked my eye infection for another 2 days and started the trek west tonight

Stebo 11-Mar-19 09:56 PM

I think somewhere near Hobbs is the area I would target

bo_sox48 11-Mar-19 09:57 PM

ezpz

Garrod 11-Mar-19 09:58 PM

you got this fam

bo_sox48 11-Mar-19 09:58 PM

Gonna have to get an oil change in tulsa

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 10:00 PM

Ye lol

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:00 PM

Yeah tomorrow's setup looks pretty great for NM, one of the more impressive setups for that region since...2007 I believe

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:00 PM

too bad it's overforced

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:01 PM

March 23rd, 2007

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:01 PM

A supercell in the environment progged tomorrow could be pretty decent. Though things should go linear fairly quickly

what happened that day?

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:01 PM

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/032321.png

Similar setup, produced a tornado event in E NM

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:02 PM

there could maybe be some supercell potential early on, especially since there's a pretty decent EML present

I'd probably go 5% in eastern NM to account for this

Stebo 11-Mar-19 10:02 PM

2007

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:02 PM

"overforcing" in the High Plains can sometimes be just the right amount of forcing tbh

Stebo 11-Mar-19 10:03 PM

that year keeps coming up

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:03 PM

This area basically is the EML source region so you're going to need at least a decent amount of forcing to break the cap

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:04 PM

Yea, healthy EML on many of these soundings

Stebo 11-Mar-19 10:04 PM

interestingly enough, 2 days later a mdt risk bust in WI

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:04 PM

this would probably work, https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2019031200_024_32.46--104.24.png

assuming a discrete cell ofc

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:05 PM

Good lord

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:05 PM

Another thing of note, the 00z HRRR has numerous upslope supercells before the main line takes shape

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:06 PM

Yes it does

Hell you only need 40 degree dewpoints out there

312will 11-Mar-19 10:06 PM

Setting my 530am alarm to go. I can get there in 7-8 hours. It'll be a good birthday road trip if nothing else.

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 10:07 PM

Holy crap NM lmao

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:07 PM

Current obs have mid-upper 60s Tds in the Rio Grande Valley in S-central TX

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:07 PM

I'll set my bar low, but will not be surprised if we get something nice in NM tomorrow

but the 2% we have right now is ridiculous

one may even be able to argue a 10% unhatched if you wanted to be bullish

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:09 PM

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:09 PM

but given uncertainties, I think a 5% is most suiting of this setup

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:10 PM

Wait his account is locked one sec

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1bD4JKWkAAQbOO.jpg

RAP is a big ole yikes near Carlsbad, NM

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:10 PM

almost 4,000 SBCAPE

I'm gonna go with an under on that

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:16 PM

Yeah 72/64 seems like drugs to me

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 10:16 PM

looks like somebody may get a tornado on top of their current snowpack

Stebo 11-Mar-19 10:17 PM

idk with that amount of wind/moisture/warmth blasting in from the southeast. there may not be a snowpack even if it is a foot deep

Garrod 11-Mar-19 10:18 PM

RAP has had a pretty bad habit of overdoing moisture return this year so far

Stebo 11-Mar-19 10:18 PM

oh i agree there 64 dp is high

60 though with that profile still would yield around 2500 j/kg

actually

let me check that

i still have sharppy

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 10:20 PM

And now the NAM special

readyletsgo 11-Mar-19 10:21 PM

Namnest

Throw it away

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:21 PM

Spc outlook almost seems like they are using the namnest

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 11-Mar-19 10:23 PM

That RAP sounding is from SW TX

Nvm

I could see low 60s dews out there given current obs

And strong low level flow

Stebo 11-Mar-19 10:25 PM

agreed

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 11-Mar-19 10:30 PM

Tomorrow is trash

The season is over still

ThunderRolls 11-Mar-19 10:38 PM

Ah, here we go. https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/rdps_2019031118_027_31.88--103.8.png

1

3

1

The best model

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 10:39 PM

FAT CAPE

Jdbeesonwx 11-Mar-19 11:00 PM

that is H O T for early march

bo_sox48 11-Mar-19 11:01 PM

ur hot for early march

1

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 11-Mar-19 11:03 PM

Mmm... someone is gonna bag a tube tomorrow.

Troy4321 11-Mar-19 11:08 PM

60+ degree dew points in New Mexico is a recipe for some amazing structure and tornados I’m jealous of anyone chasing there I just really hope some up sloping will initiate some supercells in Mexico and roll into the big bend if not the line will be fun too

Angelo 11-Mar-19 11:11 PM

Worst case scenario shelf clouds are always awesome and catching a lightning show behind a squall line.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Mar-19 11:12 PM

Shelf clouds are cool standing on your back patio or front porch. 500 miles from home just before sunset, not so much.

2

Angelo 11-Mar-19 11:13 PM

Fair point.

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 11-Mar-19 11:15 PM

UNless

it is a day before the day and you are waiting for a monster setup the next day and it's a shelf cloud show before dinner and you're all excited because the next day is a slam dunk dryline monster setup

1

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 11-Mar-19 11:42 PM

Damn you HRRR I have so much work to do tomorrow. Do not tempt me!

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 11-Mar-19 11:43 PM

get out there and chase!

5

work is overrated

312will 11-Mar-19 11:47 PM

Alarm set for 530am.

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 11-Mar-19 11:49 PM

Why am I even looking at soundings around Roswell/Carlsbad

And why do they seem so workable?!?!?!

2

453Braxton 11-Mar-19 11:51 PM

4

7

seanbarg 11-Mar-19 11:54 PM

def gonna be a 5% tor risk introduced tonight

312will 11-Mar-19 11:55 PM

https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=2019031200|NAMNST|SGP|con|scp|23|29.65,-103.45|ml|severe

That's for @Troy4321 tomorrow in his area

juandeeg 12-Mar-19 12:29 AM

Imagine this turns into that summer event where New Mexico had that big tornado and roger hill got it

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 12:34 AM

I’ve got a couple buds heading out there tomorrow. So if anything happens hopefully they’ll nab it.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 12:37 AM

Probably heading to Roswell, going to leave dfw around 6 am

wxmeddler 12-Mar-19 01:28 AM

SPC ENH, 5 Tor, 15 Hail, 30 Wind.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 01:29 AM

7

Stebo 12-Mar-19 01:46 AM

I agree with that outlook, i could see it go up some if things were to remain discrete for longer.

3

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 12-Mar-19 01:49 AM

A lot of things have to happen just right within a few counties within a couple hour window in early March....

1

Radi K.(Houston TX) 12-Mar-19 01:50 AM

Enhanced risk

6

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 02:01 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-19 02:22 AM

as it should be

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 04:16 AM

Stebo 12-Mar-19 04:17 AM

bigly

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-19 04:17 AM

Well look at those discretes. They don't stay like that to long and then it goes linear.

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 04:18 AM

The 06z HRRR has discrete cells from 20-23z, then it evolves into a squallline (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-19 04:18 AM

yep, couple of hours to play. In that Corner of NM TX border though? (edited)

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 04:19 AM

This obviously meant to be taken with a big bucket full of salt, but it looks

(edited)

Stebo 12-Mar-19 04:21 AM

the strength of the flow upsloping the moisture is pretty stout though, I mean this is a low that is about to bomb out, so these mesoscale projections of dews getting into the low 60s ahead of the dryline, aren't that insane, as the moisture isn't that far away currently

i mean it is going to take a highly anomolous flow to produce the moisture in SE NM today, but this is about as unusual of a potential as i have seen this time of year for that area.

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 04:23 AM

It's only mid march, too. This is definitely a very intriguing setup

Stebo 12-Mar-19 04:23 AM

yeah, i mean the low is expected to bottom out at 970-975 range. that is a historically strong low for that part of the country

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-19 04:24 AM

Dew are in the upper 40's and 50's now. For that area it doesn't take much correct? It is elavated I believe.

312will 12-Mar-19 06:17 AM

Buenos dias. On the road west.

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 06:24 AM

Good luck Will

1

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 06:36 AM

This is me just being hopeful but the hrrr also tends to toss more storms than what's true at initiation, it might be more discrete than what its showing. Especially since it has 3k Cape which wont verify

Or the namnest is right for the very first time and we get 0 discrete

1

Troy4321 12-Mar-19 07:05 AM

Yeah I’m heading out right now as well good luck Will hopefully you get something in NM

Syryquil 12-Mar-19 07:13 AM

Good luck everyone!

312will 12-Mar-19 07:38 AM

Good luck Troy and Ryan and anyone else headed out. I'm just ecstatic being on the road vs another day in the office.

Pretty healthy dews advecting.

Syryquil 12-Mar-19 07:39 AM

Time for some

3

Will 12-Mar-19 07:59 AM

good luck to all those chasing.

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 12-Mar-19 07:59 AM

If you look at Roswell, Carlsbad, and Midland, 12z dews are right where the HRRR says they should be, so trajectory towards 60 is on track

I'm glad I at least got batteries charging last night. This is the most bizarre potential I've ever seen here this time of year

Will 12-Mar-19 08:01 AM

wow! interesting

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 12-Mar-19 08:04 AM

Hate to say that HRRR is the outlier on discreteness though

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 08:31 AM

11z HRRR has a supercell that lasts from SE NM to near Amarillo, TX

(edited)

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 12-Mar-19 08:38 AM

Am I really going to do this?

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 08:44 AM

4 hours of WAA. The moisture is slowly getting there

Angelo 12-Mar-19 08:45 AM

Do it Stephen

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 08:45 AM

2

Uh, HRRRE is going nuts lmao

5

https://gyazo.com/aedac43510c93d3ea462ec8849d69b93

Gyazo

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 08:50 AM

Well, damn

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 08:56 AM

Yeah, that surprised me lol

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 08:56 AM

hmmm.... I’m skeptical but then again, it did well with Sunday March 3rd

It busted on March 10

9*

bo_sox48 12-Mar-19 09:02 AM

Were you the one that said it often goes nuts with linear events?

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 09:03 AM

New outlook. Introduced 15% hatched hail

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 09:05 AM

INITIALLY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISCRETE, YIELDING FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS, SOME LEFTWARD/ ANTICYCLONIC, WITH LARGE HAIL. POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEWLY OUTLINED AREA, GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR, EARLY SUPERCELL MODES, STEEP LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND FAVORABLE INFLOW-LAYER WATER CONTENT. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SEVERE GUSTS. STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYERS, WARMED BOTH BY WARM ADVECTION AND MUTED DIABATIC HEATING, WILL REMOVE MLCINH AND YIELD SURFACE-BASED INFLOW PARCELS WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IN CENTRAL NM, AND 1000-2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM DOWN THE PECOS VALLEY. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT (AS NOTED ABOVE) WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 55-75 KT ACROSS THAT CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE, VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 200-400 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH, LOCALLY HIGHER.

Syryquil 12-Mar-19 09:05 AM

Why do they always write srh as J/KG? Wikipedia does it too sometimes

wxandnews 12-Mar-19 09:08 AM

Isn’t it technically likes Jules/kilogram?

Let me just google

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 09:08 AM

s²/m² is srh I believe

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 09:09 AM

Those 2 are the same iirc, just written differently

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 09:09 AM

The SPC page lists it as m² s^-2. Hm

Can't be bothered to think about the maths right now, if it's the same

Syryquil 12-Mar-19 09:14 AM

Joules is a measure of energy. How would that work for shear

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 09:17 AM

Yeah. J/kg definitely does not make any sense when talking about shear

Will 12-Mar-19 09:17 AM

It's a typo / mind fuzz. (edited)

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 09:18 AM

5% extended a little more into NM

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 09:38 AM

@bo_sox48 UH output is huge with upscale growing segments in model output. And since these are weighted towards UH output, their prob values are skewed in linear events.

Unit conversion. It’s correct. SRH is an energy.

Marc Remillard 12-Mar-19 09:42 AM

Your keyboard is way cleaner than mine

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 10:03 AM

what does the S represent again

Angelo 12-Mar-19 10:08 AM

A wild Marc appeared!

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 10:11 AM

Seconds im pretty sure

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 10:15 AM

i hate math. Why is a joule equal to a kg* meter squared over a second squared?

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 10:18 AM

It is the work done by a force over a unit distance.

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 10:18 AM

Damn Brandon you're right, the math does check out. Learn something new every day, right?

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 10:19 AM

m is mass, a is acceleration, d is distance

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 10:19 AM

TY!

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 10:19 AM

Acceleration is m/s^2

This helps explain why supercells are so strong. The rotation provided by SRH strengthens the supercell updraft.. it is a substantial amount of energy

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 10:22 AM

so J= MAD and A = m/s^2

sorry i know its not caps

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 10:22 AM

Yes

Mass is in kg, distance in m

Syryquil 12-Mar-19 10:23 AM

Dang that's really cool

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 10:24 AM

so that's why one space heater =/= 1 jkg of cape

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 12-Mar-19 10:24 AM

memories of dynamics class hits

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 10:27 AM

207 0-3km CAPE in that profile? That’s the best skewt I’ve pulled for this event so far

He’s pretty hyped https://mobile.twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1105473627707924480

2

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 10:37 AM

That's an interesting index

8

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 10:38 AM

We shall call this the Dusty Model

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 10:38 AM

WEJJES

Lol

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 10:39 AM

It’s interesting. I’m working on him with it n

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 10:41 AM

That parameter Cameron Nixon has been working on Nailed Capitol, Montana, Laramie, Wyoming a the tornado in Smith Center Alabama, and quite a few other events. I’ve been very impressed with it. Cameron about as solid as guy can be when it comes to this stuff. @BJC9533 I didn’t know you were working with him on it, that’s great!

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 10:42 AM

Get him in here!

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 10:43 AM

I’m trying to get away from EF and more into the realm of peak rotational velocity, since EF ratings are entirely dependent on what is hit and Vrot is related to EF rating

Syryquil 12-Mar-19 10:46 AM

Gonna add him to the Twitter people we're gonna invite soon list (edited)

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 10:46 AM

Soon! That makes sense

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 11:12 AM

https://twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1105473627707924480?s=19

Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon)

Tornado forecasting is a probabilistic game; that said, given RAP trajectory and climo, can confidently say today in SE NM may carry the most favorable parameter space for long-lived, powerful tornadoes (given a discrete supercell) that I have personally chased.

He sure seems interested in today

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 11:29 AM

https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2019031214_008_32.64--104.56.png Another one

low level lapse rates of 8.8*C/km

wew lad

thats the new most PDS sounding I've seem from this event

Any discrete supercell in an environment that is anything close to that shouldnt have issues dropping tornadoes

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:31 AM

does new mexico even have a road grid out there for 45knot+ storms?

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 11:31 AM

idk

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 11:32 AM

Doesn't look like the best road network

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:34 AM

quantity of highways probably acceptable to chase with, but you won't have a lot of options to change direction

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 11:34 AM

Yea. A lot of these storms with have a pretty decent north component to them which will make things difficult

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:35 AM

good point, not seeing alot of N/S options

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 11:42 AM

5

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 11:43 AM

60 dews have already almost made it into NM

Jdbeesonwx 12-Mar-19 11:44 AM

I have never seen such an environment this far west before

This is historic for New Mexico

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 11:47 AM

It’s a thing of beauty.

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 11:47 AM

I've got a friend out there chasing today - looking forward to pictures.

2

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:49 AM

nice fake CG picture there

explain the black edges, YOU CAN'T

3

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 11:50 AM

This has the chance to produce the first quality tornado of 2019

in good terrain, that is actually visible

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 11:50 AM

Quality in looks or damage? lol

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 11:50 AM

looks

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 11:50 AM

3

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 11:50 AM

Gotcha cause I was about to say... we already had quality in damage

Jdbeesonwx 12-Mar-19 11:51 AM

@Caitlin Kelly Wanna fly to Roswell?

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:51 AM

that was oofly, we want a bigly tornado

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 11:51 AM

Just climb to the top of the Guadalupe mountains and get a nader

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 11:51 AM

Hell yeah man, fly us out there @Jdbeesonwx

1

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 11:51 AM

Easy Peasy

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 11:51 AM

Gorgeous

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 11:52 AM

It really is a beautiful area

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 11:52 AM

Looks like a mitten

312will 12-Mar-19 11:52 AM

It's my favorite area of Texas (outside of the ranch of course)

2

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 11:53 AM

I went there for a geology field trip. it has an amazing sequence of deep ocean transitioning shallow marine to near shore strata there (edited)

312will 12-Mar-19 11:53 AM

Road network is kinda iffy, yeah. Hopefully there's clearing and long lenses make up for any distances.

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 12-Mar-19 11:53 AM

That’s Michigan

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 11:53 AM

absolutely classic geology

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 11:54 AM

12z HRRRE rolling in, latest image is 21z today (edited)

2

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:54 AM

i bet that rock took hundreds of years to form

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 11:54 AM

a wee bit longer than that

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:55 AM

lol sorry making anti science jokes today

that does look spectacular though where is it?

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 11:55 AM

Already a 15 at 21z is pretty good

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 12-Mar-19 11:56 AM

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 11:56 AM

Yeah, the 00z run had a localized 60% after 00z lol (edited)

312will 12-Mar-19 11:57 AM

In Midland, TX now, I'll head over west of Hobbs, NM next.

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 11:57 AM

http://beta.wxcaster.com/models/eta/central/CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_LSI_09HR.gif?hour=2019212932

hold the hype

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 12:01 PM

Strong forcing for ascent suggests that is not a very strong cap especially in NM

SW TX it could be an issue

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 12-Mar-19 12:03 PM

Roswell and Carlsbad dew points lagging a few degrees behind where the hrrr said by 16z

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 12:03 PM

If you need to take a shelter, I know a good underground place in the area

312will 12-Mar-19 12:06 PM

SSE winds drastically picked up in Midland

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 12:07 PM

60s dews extend from MAF over to Kermit, they're almost to NM

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:09 PM

I wonder if a 10% should be considered

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 12:11 PM

We'll definitely find out soon

monsoonman1 12-Mar-19 12:12 PM

I’d put a 10

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 12:13 PM

What's your reason for doing so? @monsoonman1

monsoonman1 12-Mar-19 12:14 PM

It’s conditional on storm mode but classic high plains tornado setup synoptically

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 12:14 PM

It reminds me of 2017 in a way

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:14 PM

Yeah, the storm mode is gonna be key here

If the storms can somehow stay discrete, watch out

However, if they go immediately linear, TOR chance drops fast (edited)

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 12:16 PM

https://twitter.com/tempestchasing/status/1105502127240241152

Kelton Halbert (@tempestchasing)

Anyone chasing out in W TX into NM? Just as an FYI, @Atmo_TTU has upgraded their WRF and it's new graphics are killer. 3km resolution. Be sure to check it out when making your forecasts. I'll be using it today for AOS 453 mesoscale lab!

2

TTU WRF is on board as well

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 12:18 PM

One thing I've noticed is that the intensity of the discrete cells and their coverage is trending down on the HRRR

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 12:20 PM

Which should happen because that 3k Cape wont verify

Weird how fast those cells die near hobbs

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:22 PM

00z on HRRRE

4

monsoonman1 12-Mar-19 12:23 PM

That’s a very hyped model lol

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:23 PM

Yeah lol

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 12:23 PM

Nailed Alabama

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 12:23 PM

My Guadalupe target looks good there

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 12:23 PM

Hype train

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:23 PM

Still holds that 45% at 03z lmao

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 12:24 PM

lots of UDH in that squall line

2

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 12:27 PM

Watch, a tornado is gonna loft an oil rig 1 mile and it will get rated EF3 because it doesn’t hit anything else.

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:28 PM

10% added

1

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 12:29 PM

reasonable

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:29 PM

1

Woah

45% wind

4

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 12:29 PM

wewlad

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 12:30 PM

Goodbye midland

312will 12-Mar-19 12:30 PM

Feels like a Plains event

Caitlin Kelly 12-Mar-19 12:30 PM

30% hatched hail, too

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:31 PM

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD UP THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS THIS MORNING (60 DEWPOINTS ALREADY TO MIDLAND AND FORT STOCKTON) AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR AS SOUTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING APPEARS PROBABLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE/DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE THICKER CIRRUS PLUME, BUT THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DRIVE MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE BAND OF STRONG ASCENT (AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF EL PASO) REACHES THE WEST SIDE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG (EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 65-75 KT) WITH LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (EFFECTIVE SRH 300-400 M2/S2), WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONG SHEAR/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT, MAINLY IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 12:31 PM

If wind was siggy, this would be a MDT

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 12-Mar-19 12:31 PM

"Isolated very large hail"

Get those softball mitts ready

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:32 PM

NEAR OR AFTER 00Z, STORMS WILL HAVE LIKELY CONGEALED INTO AN EXTENSIVE NORTH-SOUTH SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL TX. WITH THE LINEAR TRANSITION, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE GUSTS/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE ENCOUNTERS WEAKER BUOYANCY AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXTENT, THOUGH A LOW-END THREAT COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 12:44 PM

https://skylifewx.com/2019/03/12/20190312-day-1-outlook/

bjc

20190312 Day 1 Outlook

1145 PM CDT Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 For entertainment/educational use only. Summary.. An enhanced risk for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds is forecast today for the High Plains of New Mexic…

Haven’t yet seen the spc update but here is my outlook for today! Fresh off da presses

When looking at the outlook you can switch between viewing the categorical, wind prob, hail prob, and tornado prob layers

On mobile you just click on the tab in the top left corner to open the layers

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:49 PM

Nice!!

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 12:49 PM

Went with 10% hatched in southeast NM

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 12:49 PM

hatched? spicy

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 12:49 PM

hatchimals

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 12:49 PM

Angelo 12-Mar-19 12:50 PM

Brandon is our new official ST forecaster

I love how you have an actual map integrated into it. You can get an idea of terrain in the risk areas.

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 01:04 PM

dews are rising in NM now

KeevaNeve 12-Mar-19 01:06 PM

Nice little clear slot allowing for some heating

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:09 PM

@CptProtato give it a read

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 01:09 PM

Wait what did I miss, do you mean your outlook?

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:10 PM

Yes

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 01:10 PM

I've already done that, I fucking love them

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:10 PM

Again I say anyone who would like to provide constructive meteorological or technical/grammatical/communications feedback/criticism, feel free regardless of background and education.

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 01:11 PM

brandon's thing is just a big fat SPC ripoff

does that work for feedback?

3

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:11 PM

Thanks chris! We appreciate your feedback and we will take it into consideration for future products and changes.

CptProtato 12-Mar-19 01:11 PM

Brandon>SPC. Maybe he's right about privatization/reducing NOAA

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 01:11 PM

lol

seriously though it is cool

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 01:12 PM

Brandon =

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 01:12 PM

broyle's long lost son

453Braxton 12-Mar-19 01:12 PM

Brandon secretly works at the SPC lol

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:12 PM

Lmao

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 01:13 PM

KMAF looks pretty lively. Brandon Broyles.

and thats on a 64/63

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 01:16 PM

There's an SCP bullseye right to the SW of Midland rn

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 01:17 PM

That's probably 64/61 in reality, seems to be running a little more moist than it's neighboring metars but still, that's solid right there.

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:35 PM

Marked downtrend in discrete cells on the HRRR

312will 12-Mar-19 01:36 PM

Would be nice to get more clearing

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:37 PM

thats exactly it. Less clearing = less warming = more CINH

312will 12-Mar-19 01:37 PM

Earlier HRRR had that clearing further east

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 01:37 PM

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:38 PM

Upper level cloud shield is slowly moving east meanwhile low level stratus has not eroded much yet but should pretty soon as it loses the sheltering from upper clouds

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 01:39 PM

On the plus side, this should limit mixing out of the moisture

Same thing happened 11/16/15 further E

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:39 PM

yea. That cloud cover is hurting

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:40 PM

It is 11:40 MDT

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 01:44 PM

He's right you know.

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 01:45 PM

https://twitter.com/vortexjeff/status/1105501384173125632?s=12

Jeff Frame (@VORTEXJeff)

Trend on HRRR from 12-15Z runs is decidedly toward less intense discrete cells

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 01:45 PM

And a big plus, we have an extra hour of diurnal heating now.

Maybe we will get another bat-munching mega supercell in Terrell County. Nearly Easterly winds there at the surface.

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 01:47 PM

59 dew far SE NM

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 01:47 PM

I have little doubt the moisture will be there given the 63 Td at Midland with a 20 kt SE wind

But will there be enough heating (edited)

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 01:48 PM

I think there will be, still have a couple more hours

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:48 PM

That cloud cover has been very stubborn and doesn't really show signs of eroding yet

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:50 PM

Currently eroding from west to easy

East

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:51 PM

not really, its still entrenched east of the foothills

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 12-Mar-19 01:51 PM

It’s eroding. It’s not eroding. Which is is people

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:51 PM

It's an elevation thing

I dont think it is, at least not yet.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 12-Mar-19 01:52 PM

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 01:52 PM

The low level clouds will begin to erode once the shield moves out. However the hrrr doesn’t actually show that shield completely moving out until 22z, but still forms a supercell. Really don’t need much heating to get today’s setup going.

monsoonman1 12-Mar-19 01:53 PM

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 01:53 PM

It's just low level "fog"... before noon due to excellent spreads..

3

312will 12-Mar-19 01:54 PM

I'm at the NM border and it's been foggy AF since Austin

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:55 PM

It is clearly eroding from satellite. West is eroding because it is exposed. East part has more cloud shielding and is mostly staying put

1

Although looks like the north part was reinforced

Still early enough

Ben Jurkovich (Seattle, Wa) 12-Mar-19 01:56 PM

12z Euro onboard

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:56 PM

This is gonna be a really revolutionary take but I think the fog is due to the moisture advection, therefore I struggle to see it eroding completely, this will keep spreads nice, but limit heating some.

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 01:58 PM

If you use NIR mode on Sat you can easily differentiate between low clouds and the upperlevel jet.

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:58 PM

still very much there on the HRRR at 20z in SE NM https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2019031217_003_32.73--103.99.png

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:58 PM

Profiles later today look lit

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:59 PM

cap is probably going to break anyways

312will 12-Mar-19 01:59 PM

5

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 01:59 PM

-25 MLCINH at 20z should erode to above -10 between 21 and 23z

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 01:59 PM

Fog

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 01:59 PM

NM is a pretty state for sure

312will 12-Mar-19 01:59 PM

New Mexico decided to invest their sign money elsewhere

2

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 02:00 PM

Eroded by 21z https://i1.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2019031217_004_32.01--103.87.png

6

Sounding from Carlsbad

312will 12-Mar-19 02:00 PM

Need to pull over in Eunice to check mesoanalysis

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 02:01 PM

also that 65 dew is probably too optimistic

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 02:05 PM

Well 63 isn't out of the question either and you'd still have a pretty damn good sounding with that. LCL's are 500m or maybe less.

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 02:07 PM

Lift is starting to increase out west

Angelo 12-Mar-19 02:07 PM

Damn those wind profiles have all been straight fire

312will 12-Mar-19 02:09 PM

Posted up at Debbie's Kountry Kitchen in Eunice, NM. I'll give a full report on the lunch options and service.

readyletsgo 12-Mar-19 02:10 PM

im still in winter/ cold season mode as I see 1pm and I think initiation

seanbarg 12-Mar-19 02:13 PM

oh yea Happy Birthday @312will

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 02:14 PM

Get a birthday nader

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 02:14 PM

73/68 in Del Rio! steamy! Calling Terrell county from my armc---passenger seat of my truck lol.

ThunderRolls 12-Mar-19 02:16 PM

Risky gamble down there

could pay off I guess

seanbarg 12-Mar-19 02:17 PM

I see Troy is in Del Rio right now but just passing through to big bend

yt-ScienceOutThere 12-Mar-19 02:17 PM

That area just makes supes whenever it wants to. Lot of orographic features to work from when things are otherwise iffy.

monsoonman1 12-Mar-19 02:24 PM

https://twitter.com/nwsspc/status/1105534736297013249?s=21

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

1:23pm CDT #SPC_MD 0179 , #nmwx, https://t.co/RfBhkUrdO7

Jon 12-Mar-19 02:25 PM

BOOOO blue outline

Give us red

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 02:25 PM

Red will be east of that

3

BJC9533 12-Mar-19 02:27 PM

Yep

Dewpoints and temps have slowly increased in eastern New Mexico so heating/mixing is ongoing.

312will 12-Mar-19 02:32 PM

I feel like I should sneak over to Carlsbad but man the road options are lacking. And thank you @seanbarg it's a great way to spend a birthday

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 02:32 PM

ryan hearne 12-Mar-19 02:34 PM

We’re crossing into New Mexico State line

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 02:35 PM

mid 50 dews in extreme SE NM now

60s on the other side of the border

ryan hearne 12-Mar-19 02:36 PM

I had forgotten just how bad the data situation is out here, running two separate hotspots with AT&T and Verizon and still getting bad spots

Jon 12-Mar-19 02:37 PM

Well it is pretty much the middle of nowhere, yeah?

seanbarg 12-Mar-19 02:41 PM

road options are so sparse in that corner of the state I'm not sure where I would post up if I were there

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 02:42 PM

I'd guess Carlsbad. At least you can go in multiple directions from there

wxandnews 12-Mar-19 02:43 PM

Carlsbad or Hobbs

seanbarg 12-Mar-19 02:45 PM

would prolly be best to camp out in between those two areas so you have options depending on where storms form and what they look like

Freshgeek 12-Mar-19 02:46 PM

cell coverage would be my only concern

seanbarg 12-Mar-19 02:48 PM

inb4 Dean chimes in about Baron

2

312will 12-Mar-19 02:56 PM

Live update from Eunice NM

monsoonman1 12-Mar-19 02:56 PM

https://twitter.com/michaeljkaiser1/status/1105541098745692161?s=21

Michael Kaiser (@michaeljkaiser1)

@IrisABC15 Spotted over hwy87 and Gilbert Road at 11:44AM