stormtrack discord - 04-03-19_ok

yt-ScienceOutThere 31-Mar-19 10:25 AM

453Braxton 31-Mar-19 10:25 AM

Severe risk on my birthday

13

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 31-Mar-19 10:26 AM

Lmao and I leave here Monday

yt-ScienceOutThere 31-Mar-19 10:27 AM

Nick gets the

next time he posts the bust emoji in a target area.

2

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310757 SPC AC 310757 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Very active southerly flow regime is expected to continue across the CONUS through the medium-range period. Moisture plume that has been shunted well south of the Gulf Coast is expected to begin advancing north into TX late day3, then into the southern plains across western OK Wednesday. Medium-range models are in fairly good agreement that a pronounced short-wave trough will induce lee cyclogenesis that should sharpen a dryline day4. Robust deep convection appears possible across this region during the late afternoon into evening hours. Day5, a more significant surge in low-level moisture is expected to advance across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States. Strong, progressive short-wave trough is expected to aid organized, potentially severe thunderstorms from the Arklatex into MS. Beyond day5, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the potential for organized convection downstream. ..Darrow.. 03/31/2019 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

Trend overnight was west and north.

yt-ScienceOutThere 31-Mar-19 10:50 AM

Well I had hoped NAM would bring the

in time but nope. It's late there as well. This thing likely stays capped or storms stay weak if what is progged remains.

@Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) is now free to use his favorite emoji.

3

6

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 31-Mar-19 10:58 AM

dews look gross anyways

Trey (Tulsa OK) 31-Mar-19 11:24 AM

Several days away but yes, need better DPs. Still though setups are starting to appear in early April. Far from ideal but we'll take it.

5

Ouguy2017 31-Mar-19 11:59 AM

Maybe the reverse will happen here, where dews get better as we get closer to the event

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 31-Mar-19 12:05 PM

That would be nice

Shear profiles are legit

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 12:14 PM

I’m down for both days if dews trend up big time but they are seriously lacking

This pattern though? Fuck yeah

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 31-Mar-19 12:14 PM

My criteria that need to trend up before I even consider pulling the trigger on this one: 1) Instability axis needs to fatten up to at least 2 counties wide, 2) consistent >60 dews, 3) Less capping (no worse that -25 ML CINH or Earl Barker LSI < 1)

312will 31-Mar-19 12:18 PM

As much as I want to hype this, that's some magical moisture return. But, maybe I'm just fussy that it's a dismal 45F with a strong north wind here today.

Trey (Tulsa OK) 31-Mar-19 02:16 PM

Will, not much to hype yet, moisture return is a big question mark, we have a stout NE wind at my place today as well.

Also agree with Stephen, moisture axis that's 35-40 miles wide? No thx

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 31-Mar-19 06:27 PM

13

Jon 31-Mar-19 06:29 PM

having entire states shaded in is making me uncomfortable

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 06:38 PM

Illinois and Iowa in the crap section seems like a good troll opportunity

7

Garrod 31-Mar-19 06:42 PM

it's getting close to "If there's a warm front in IL, you chase it" season

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 06:42 PM

3

Almost

That has a nice subtle secondary front too

Up that 10 degrees and I'd be out there all day

Garrod 31-Mar-19 06:44 PM

lol I looked at the hodo

if there were corn dews under that

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 06:45 PM

NAM at FH84 likes to underdo the dews

1

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 06:54 PM

I wouldn’t get your hopes up with that tho

Bad dews

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 31-Mar-19 06:54 PM

Easy corn

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 06:54 PM

They're not lol

Just fun to see it consistently there

Garrod 31-Mar-19 06:54 PM

I just like to see moisture starting to make its way up here

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 06:55 PM

Veering in the open sector but it's on its way

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 31-Mar-19 06:55 PM

Juicy

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 06:55 PM

Also not entirely sure any appreciable NAM moisture bias exists

1

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 06:56 PM

Not appreciable enough to make up low 50s dews

Syryquil 31-Mar-19 06:57 PM

Come on man, you know the physics are broken @ThunderRolls

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 06:58 PM

Lmao

They are

I’ve done my calculations over here and I see no reason why we shouldn’t be seeing mid 70s dews

There’s cornfields down there

I just need to make my pass and the corn will grow to full height in 12 hours

Syryquil 31-Mar-19 06:59 PM

Change my mind, the next gen of models need to account for corn growth time

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 07:01 PM

Not possible. Can’t account for the corn king

I’m an unpredictable variable

Syryquil 31-Mar-19 07:02 PM

We just need to put half of the computing power into predicting corn growth

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 07:03 PM

Still nope

The corn king can giveth and he can taketh away. All with the snap of a finger

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 31-Mar-19 07:05 PM

God can we just get a nice trough ejection with >60 dewpoints

That'd be nice

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 07:05 PM

I’ll think about it

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 31-Mar-19 07:05 PM

Or hell, have it slow down and get mid-upper 50s dews in the Panhandle, that will work just fine.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 31-Mar-19 09:06 PM

I mean, it's chaseable (edited)

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 09:06 PM

Thats trending towards a breakable cap

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 31-Mar-19 09:07 PM

the area averaged soundings are good too

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 09:07 PM

slightly better moisture

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 31-Mar-19 09:07 PM

I mean if you're remotely close to that area you gotta chase that

Garrod 31-Mar-19 09:07 PM

that sure is a hodograph

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 31-Mar-19 09:07 PM

you're going to get beautiful LP structure if the cap breaks

ThunderRolls 31-Mar-19 09:08 PM

but man, the parameter space is TINY

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 31-Mar-19 09:08 PM

it's so small

the GFS has a solid, tiny warm sector though

really clears out too

Freshgeek 31-Mar-19 09:18 PM

HMMMM..... if only I was close to that

Oh wait

yt-ScienceOutThere 31-Mar-19 10:49 PM

Man this would be a dope day if we could get like 3* higher dewpoints.

2

There are some lapse rates in the 8's in there.

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 10:51 PM

It has trended slightly better in the capping department

yt-ScienceOutThere 31-Mar-19 10:51 PM

NAM attempts to convect the triple point, and puts down a precip blob down the dryline. LI's are quite high further south.

2

3

bo_sox48 31-Mar-19 10:52 PM

Gonna be some wicked structure if the dryline goes

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 31-Mar-19 10:52 PM

NAM trended a slightly fatter instability axis today, but just slightly. Still don't see any uptrend in dews or downtrend in cap

Maybe my new hope is the current parameter set trends west into the caprock

yt-ScienceOutThere 31-Mar-19 10:53 PM

We are definitely slipping west.

I wanna see GFS trend it a little more and splash in some extra moisture. GFS has been a touch more hype on all params.

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 31-Mar-19 11:01 PM

haha I'll definitely be 00z GFSing in a bit

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 31-Mar-19 11:52 PM

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 01-Apr-19 12:00 AM

00z not helping along any boosted moisture trend

yt-ScienceOutThere 01-Apr-19 12:14 AM

Nope still bad. that's what 30 hours of recovery time will get you. I don't think that's going to improve.

312will 01-Apr-19 12:15 AM

Not impossible but definitely no bueno.

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 12:16 AM

Shallow moisture. Gonna make some beautiful LP's

yt-ScienceOutThere 01-Apr-19 03:16 AM

Day 3 MDT

1

NAM forecast soundings along the corridor of instability during the late afternoon show a supercell profile with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1200 J/kg and 0-6 km shear values of 60 to 70 kt. In addition, the forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km suggesting that very large hail will be possible if supercells can form. The relatively dry airmass to the east of the dryline could also contribute to downdraft acceleration making a few damaging wind gusts possible as well. A couple tornadoes are possible, the dry airmass may however confine this threat to the strongest couple of storms. Forecast soundings also suggest that convective inhibition will increase across the southern Plains during the evening. For this reason, severe storms that develop during the late afternoon or early evening may become elevated after maturation. This may prioritize a large hail threat a couple hours after initiation. A marginal severe threat could extend south southwestward into northern sections of the Texas Hill country but convective initiation will likely be conditional that far south due to less lift with southward extent.

yt-ScienceOutThere 01-Apr-19 03:33 AM

I’m so chasing this one.

3

2

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 01-Apr-19 04:58 AM

Will 01-Apr-19 05:36 AM

Nice. Go for it.

Syryquil 01-Apr-19 06:30 AM

I'm surprised they went mdt, i really thought the cap could be a problem

Angelo 01-Apr-19 06:43 AM

Jeez yeah breaking that cap means violent tors

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 07:01 AM

Omgggg

Yeah I’m calling out on Wed

Will 01-Apr-19 07:02 AM

You chasing the moderate David?

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 07:02 AM

Yup

I’ve waited so long for a big set up like this I’m like overwhelmed

Will 01-Apr-19 07:04 AM

Wait for initiation at WinStar world casino and hit the slots then bag tubes later (edited)

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 07:07 AM

That’s a great idea I love winstar

Angelo 01-Apr-19 07:29 AM

Guess I’m having a second spring break this week

Trey (Tulsa OK) 01-Apr-19 07:45 AM

looooool

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 01-Apr-19 07:45 AM

Big troll

Syryquil 01-Apr-19 07:46 AM

Yeah, this event was a huge troll, uptrending so hard

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 01-Apr-19 07:47 AM

Lol

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 08:00 AM

Surely SPC wouldn’t mess with people like that

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 01-Apr-19 08:06 AM

Nah I think they have this one down

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 01-Apr-19 08:09 AM

Lmfao

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 08:17 AM

I just quit my job and left my wife to go chase this set up

6

4

7

9

Syryquil 01-Apr-19 08:18 AM

You dont need them

7

Last year was the year of the 19s, this is the year of the 3

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 08:26 AM

Yeah I’m going AWOL for this. Probs end up in jail but worth it

Could almost say... LeavanWORTH it

monsoonman1 01-Apr-19 08:28 AM

Leavenworth is pretty nice

Good fishing on the Missouri around there

But this setup ain’t worth it

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 01-Apr-19 10:13 AM

Oh man GFS is backing the SPC showing nice moisture surge on the latest run.

6

yt-ScienceOutThere 01-Apr-19 10:14 AM

itshappening.gif

Syryquil 01-Apr-19 10:24 AM

Nice file name

Trey (Tulsa OK) 01-Apr-19 10:43 AM

lol

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 10:43 AM

Lmao

KeevaNeve 01-Apr-19 10:45 AM

Anybody else notice the channel name? Mainly the last state. (If it’s been pointed out, sorry, I’m lame)

Jdbeesonwx 01-Apr-19 10:46 AM

it's on purpose

cause this threat

is L I T A F

Trey (Tulsa OK) 01-Apr-19 10:46 AM

KeevaNeve 01-Apr-19 10:46 AM

#YAAAS

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 01-Apr-19 11:07 AM

NAM LSI (Earl's Calc) trend for 00z

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:10 AM

That should easily verify the moderate

Freshgeek 01-Apr-19 11:10 AM

I talked to my bosses and we're already planning on what to do when our office is destroyed on Wednesday

monsoonman1 01-Apr-19 11:11 AM

Some great lapse rates if nothing else

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 11:16 AM

@Freshgeek find your nearest underpass and hide under it

5

7

2

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:16 AM

3km NAM has a nice look at the end there

Jon 01-Apr-19 11:18 AM

Guys. How has no one mentioned

for this?! It’s his outlook ffs

Freshgeek 01-Apr-19 11:18 AM

Chris Broyles: Go north or you will certainly die

6

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 12:40 PM

Looks like a good structure day to me. Maybe a triple point play?

Should be pretty - not sure about any sustained tornadoes

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-Apr-19 01:28 PM

I’m chasing

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 01:29 PM

Better start driving then

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-Apr-19 01:29 PM

Yep calling wife.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:44 PM

That sounding says “you should probably be out there”

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 01:46 PM

Is moisture trending better

312will 01-Apr-19 01:48 PM

There's a nose of 60 Td near Wichita Falls at 0z

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:48 PM

Channeling my inner Broyles with the NAM soundings.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:48 PM

Slightly but I think there’s a ceiling to that. It’s not going to be a huge tornado day but I think there’s potential for some beauties on the DL

LP type structure

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:48 PM

Wichita Falls area doesn't look awful, probably 4/25/09 type day

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:48 PM

If I was even remotely close i’d be out there for sure

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:48 PM

Bunch of hailers and maybe a tor warned corkscrew.

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 01:49 PM

If it were a little slower I’d bite without hesitation

wxandnews 01-Apr-19 01:53 PM

Maybe we need to make April Fools jokes more often

5

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:53 PM

Wow just went back to that 09 day and saw it was a 15 XX TOR lol definitely not going to happen with regards to the synoptic pattern, but the end result may still be a bunch of hailers

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:53 PM

Yeah that was a MDT day IIRC

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:53 PM

It was.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

Tiny one

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

I chased that day and remember all the motherships you can handle

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

More dialed up than this for sure

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

and baseballs, plentiful baseballs

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

But I think this one still holds potential...especially if you’re looking for legit structure

It’s gonna be nice once things go off

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

For sure.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 01:54 PM

I just don’t think there will be much tornado activity

Danny Neal [Plainfield IL] 01-Apr-19 01:55 PM

Maybe an hour or two window

Nothing widespread.

ThunderRolls 01-Apr-19 02:10 PM

I’m still not 100% sure we see storms

Cap bust is definitely on the table

Freshgeek 01-Apr-19 02:11 PM

Then why go with a MDT?

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 02:11 PM

Broyles

4

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 02:14 PM

I’m in

Would like some nice structure to kick things off

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 02:14 PM

Euro looks giood

backing up the moisture axis

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 02:15 PM

Ooof

Slowed down A LOT

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 02:15 PM

We take

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 02:15 PM

Tornado potential rises dramatically if this backs into the Panhandle

4

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 02:16 PM

Thats a nice signal

55-58F dews back into the TX panhandle on this run

We also take

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 02:17 PM

3

Syryquil 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

Life imitates art

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

lolwut

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

The moisture is meager tbh

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

High plains don’t care

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

that'll get the job done for LP structure and a few tor's

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

If it keeps edging west today this could get legit

yt-ScienceOutThere 01-Apr-19 02:18 PM

anyone have insight into the calc difference between Skip and COD on LSI?

Earl's is +2 to +3, COD is -3

ThunderRolls 01-Apr-19 02:25 PM

55 is workable in the panhandle

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 02:27 PM

Be nice to see the thermo profiles out there on the euro

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 02:27 PM

no clue

re lI's

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 01-Apr-19 02:34 PM

I would love like 3 more hours of return flow

But the nam3k is tantalizing

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 02:39 PM

No reason not to chase it if you're nearby IMO

ThunderRolls 01-Apr-19 03:17 PM

Take a chance

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 03:22 PM

Now that the season is canceled we should all chase

yt-ScienceOutThere 01-Apr-19 03:23 PM

It's all we have left.

There's this moderate risk and then nothing.

1

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 03:57 PM

During the late afternoon and into the evening, thunderstorms are expected to develop across western and central Oklahoma along a dryline. This activity will move eastward through the evening and overnight, with additional evening and overnight development possible this far east in response to an increase in the low level jet. Instability values are forecast to be large enough to support some threat of elevated severe thunderstorms overnight, although the greater severe threat should be focused farther west during the evening. All activity should transition east of the area by Thursday afternoon and evening.

- NWS Tulsa AFD

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 05:16 PM

NAM looks pretty good again for some good up's

lp's

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 01-Apr-19 05:20 PM

8

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 05:21 PM

Another storm system will move east across the southern Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will be accompanied by moderate instability and, for a little while in the afternoon/early evening in western Oklahoma, enough shear for severe storms. Elevated hail storms will also be possible through the night, mainly over the southern half of Oklahoma and into north Texas.

That's what OUN is saying about Wednesday rn

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 01-Apr-19 05:22 PM

It’s slight now

312will 01-Apr-19 06:18 PM

I might have to pull the trigger on Wednesday morning. I'm down for structure.

8

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 07:15 PM

not sure if trend is good or bad

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 01-Apr-19 07:35 PM

Maybe a nice sunset

2

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 07:50 PM

cirrus clouds and a nice sunset

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 07:50 PM

and a retreating dryline

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 07:50 PM

60kts of bulk shear and an updraft blown to shit

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 07:50 PM

lmao

You can see with that trend analysis

Garrod 01-Apr-19 07:50 PM

looks like a good chance to work on your tan

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 07:50 PM

Ridging is extending more into the gulf.. Delayed onset return flow

Can probably kiss any real tor potential Weds goodbye, but I'd bet you get LP sups with hail

Don't worry

Will 01-Apr-19 07:51 PM

euro thermos.. hold up

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 07:52 PM

the Big Boy Stuff ™ is just around the corner. Think we have a slim shot at a good Plains tornado setup next week, somewhere between Thurs - Sun.. High ceiling but a damn low floor too

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 07:52 PM

i mean i don’t think the trends are awful

euro was good at 12z

Will 01-Apr-19 07:54 PM

wxmeddler 01-Apr-19 07:54 PM

@Will What site/service is this?

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 07:55 PM

it's something he has access to due to work stuff

Not for us low peasants

Will 01-Apr-19 07:55 PM

weatherzone aus

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 07:56 PM

any options for us to subscribe?

Will 01-Apr-19 07:58 PM

not for thermos

if they track IP addresses might look dodgy if they see US IPs logging into it

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 07:59 PM

2

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 08:00 PM

sig hail

Someone core punch for me Weds

Will 01-Apr-19 08:13 PM

850s look warmish hmm

2

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 09:01 PM

@Will Im not sure I really have a feel on this set up. By chance i’m gonna be out in the area so i’m probably going to chase it

But i’m not really sure what to expect right now

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 09:04 PM

you bought tix??

Jim Martin 01-Apr-19 09:15 PM

so essentially on that sounding @John Homenuk (New York, NY) posted, the lines on the sounding in the lower left indicated a potential of a contaminated sounding?

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 09:16 PM

yes

@BJC9533 have to be there for business

okc

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 09:17 PM

Well lucky you lol

Will 01-Apr-19 09:29 PM

that sounding isn't that contaminated imo (edited)

isolated supercells from 7pm in NW Oklahoma before it fires up after 03Z into west, then central OK with stronger linear cells (mainly elevated) (edited)

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 09:34 PM

what he said

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 09:51 PM

Keep backing the dryline into the Panhandle with mid 50s dews please

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 10:25 PM

00z NAM -> bust

Capping way too strong

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:06 PM

ill take this. backed up further west again by a decent amount

But yeah the main convection it develops is wayyyyy north

far far northeast tx panhandle

monsoonman1 01-Apr-19 11:08 PM

That dryline bulge would be fun in May

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:08 PM

These systems in May are probably producing big shit

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:08 PM

this is probably going to produce something

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:09 PM

It looks good if the cap breaks

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:09 PM

In May that is insane

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 01-Apr-19 11:09 PM

need more MOIST

2

monsoonman1 01-Apr-19 11:09 PM

Going to need our DFW folks to turn on their humidifiers full blast

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:10 PM

point and click so take with a grain of salt but

we're spinning if we can fire up the engines on one of these things

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:10 PM

I would love if that warm nose above 850 would die

Then I'd be pretty confident in getting something decent out of this

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:11 PM

Yep

monsoonman1 01-Apr-19 11:11 PM

Oog

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:11 PM

WRF-ARW in weenie mode, to the shock of absolutely nobody

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:12 PM

hahaha

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:13 PM

lmao

If that verifies I swear lol

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:13 PM

hahaha

NMMB also

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:14 PM

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:14 PM

Are those modeled LP supercells lmao

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:14 PM

#2019ing

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:14 PM

NSSL too! #lockitin

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:15 PM

Its on every CAM hahaha

Serious question: Anyone else planning to be out there?

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

If there’s tornadic LP sups maybe lmao

ThunderRolls 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

well anything on this day isnt gonna be HP, that can be assumed with relative certainty

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

if i lived in norman still for sure.

ThunderRolls 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

high CINH, marginal surface moisture, solid shear and low PWATs

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

oh

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

it's a minimum 7 hour drive and you know, work all week, so that's just not happening

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

There's a supercell for ya

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

I'll wait for next week's high risk bonanza

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:16 PM

I mean, if it looks that good tomorrow evening, I probably will head out for this

Low risk chase really

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:17 PM

I’ve done dumber things

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:17 PM

lol

If Weds goes nuts, take it as a sign of things to come.

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:17 PM

ARW

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

I'm serious.. When I have the time I'm going to throw up some plots and compare recent year mean elevated mixed layer plume potential temps to this year... My gut is that this year's EML temps are running "cold."

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

What time is sundown in W OK

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

Around 8 PM

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

So 01z

Cool

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

Yep

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

Can't tell you the last Plains April event we had with fucking mid-50s dewpoints. The last however many years we had events capped at mid-upper 60s in April.

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:18 PM

If this event goes off in sub 60 dews on the OK side I’ll agree with you

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:19 PM

Those storms would have great structure against the setting sun

I like the thought of that

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:19 PM

Just need to take the time to actually compute things and plot

But I'm telling you... Pretty sure this is a sign the EML source region is ready to go lol

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 01-Apr-19 11:19 PM

I will not be chasing tomorrow

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:19 PM

And I will say, GIVE THIS TO ME IN MAY

With mid 60s dews

There will be big tornadoes

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:20 PM

So long as drought conditions don't worsen (super unlikely), EML source region is going to be straight

In the good way, not the 2018 toasty way

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:20 PM

Drought is not worsening lol

Zero chance

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:20 PM

Yeah

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:20 PM

Not with wave after wave

Good wave or not, still doesn’t matter

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:21 PM

I'm actually super stoked about this. I've yet to demonstrate any numbers but pretty sure that it'll show that recent season EML plumes have been running hot compared to the "average"

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:21 PM

1

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:21 PM

And it just means that when we get Real Moisture ™ we're gonna be rocking like the 2000s

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:21 PM

I'll be out there since I'll be so close in OKC. Absolutely zero reason for me not to go

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:21 PM

I might consider it in a bout of stupidity tomorrow evening

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

Its going to be really close but if the disturbance gives the dryline a kick and something goes off, we could get some really beautiful stuff

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

14 hours? that's crazy lol

There will be plenty of setups bro lol

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

Brandon I'm doing my stats final project on that

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

fuck u

lol

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

To see if EML temps have been increasing with climate change

453Braxton 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

This on my birthday, so it will happen

bo_sox48 01-Apr-19 11:22 PM

Nah bro I have literally nothing going on here and I’m not motivated to do things that I should be doing anyway

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:23 PM

There was a very brief study done on the EML and its total absence from the Northeast in the last decade. Ant Masiello discussed some sort of global pattern change

Have to dive back into that at some point

Basically the Northeast would frequently get EML events in the 90's and 2000's and it just....shut off

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:23 PM

(which is weird if the EML is getting stronger)

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:23 PM

I know

Something changed....I spoke with Ant about it for quite some time a year or tow back

two*

BJC9533 01-Apr-19 11:24 PM

All I know is anecdotally speaking... It's been tough to not cap bust in April these last few years.. Gotta be related to drought conditions and perhaps the overall baroclinicity (stronger ascent -> weaker capping )

Should never cap bust with mid-upper 60s dews in April, and yet I watched it happen a good number of times from home

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 01-Apr-19 11:24 PM

Agreed. I'm a. little more confident this year and this setup in particular. Good lift, well timed, no bigly drought

It's gonnaa be close

But I'll gladly sit out on the DL and get a tan

mcbeewx 01-Apr-19 11:27 PM

I'll probably be chasing but I'll bring along my SPF 50.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 01-Apr-19 11:35 PM

I'll be out getting a sunburn on Wednesday.

1

Will 01-Apr-19 11:51 PM

Does anyone know where there's a map online like this but with the total anomaly departure as a figure? 850 and or 700 temps/heights (edited)

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 02-Apr-19 12:00 AM

@Will Alicia Bentley has some of that stuff here: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/anom.php?domain=northamer&variable=850t_anom

@Will and Kyle griffin has some here: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/700hght_stdanom/700hght_stdanom_namer_loop.html

One more: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/loop.php?model=gfs&prod=850temp_std&proj=us&archive=0&run=2019040200

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 12:07 AM

https://media.giphy.com/media/9Vq290E1UDzJKF5Hjn/giphy.gif

2

1

(SPC Outlooks circa 2119)

Will 02-Apr-19 12:09 AM

Nice maps and thanks @Alex Goldstein (NJ) but I was meaning if they had like a merged temp figure of the grid - like this

(damn it's hot globally) (edited)

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 02-Apr-19 12:15 AM

You mean you want a global view?

Will 02-Apr-19 12:15 AM

yeah or NH

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 02-Apr-19 12:16 AM

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/analysis/loop.php?model=gfs&prod=850temp_std&proj=nh&archive=0&run=2019040200

Here’s NH

Not sure if that’s what’s you’re looking for?

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 12:19 AM

"these aren't the droids you are looking for" (edited)

Will 02-Apr-19 12:27 AM

Not quite bit it's okay - just looking for an averaged figure of the grid (like the bottom of the global chart posted above)

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 02-Apr-19 12:30 AM

Ooooooh I see. Hmmm I’m sure that exists. I’ll dig around

Will 02-Apr-19 12:41 AM

Awesome! Thanks

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 08:23 AM

Euro looks decent based on this very high level look at it

Trey (Tulsa OK) 02-Apr-19 08:33 AM

By this time tomorrow the slight risk outta be down to one county

453Braxton 02-Apr-19 08:37 AM

Pretty much lol

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 08:54 AM

And i’ll be in it.

Exciting times

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 09:39 AM

NAM'ed

lol

Trey (Tulsa OK) 02-Apr-19 09:43 AM

PDS light rain

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 09:43 AM

hahaha

nothing like mid 30's dews to start the day

forget the sunscreen. ill sit outside with my jacket and some moisturizer

gonna have chapped lips

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 09:58 AM

I'll be watching Ft. Stockton down to Langtry TX dews today as return flow starts up. If obs there can stay ahead of pace of the model dewpoint increases, I'll be somewhat interested. Right now looks like most models had a good handle on where the dews would be at the start of return flow. Let the race begin.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 09:58 AM

It's certainly interesting how much this has backed up now toward the caprock area. Mid 50's dews into that region on a DL has my interest for some isolated action

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 09:59 AM

I'd love to see that location on one or two more models, but yea that was definitely a nice trend

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:02 AM

Agreed

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:09 AM

NAM is a tick west again

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 10:10 AM

This also interests me for later in the week if that southern stream wave can slow down like this

312will 02-Apr-19 10:11 AM

Yeah I have a hard time thinking decent temps and Td can advect that far north when it's freezing in Austin and Del Rio this morning

Trey (Tulsa OK) 02-Apr-19 10:49 AM

Was it freezing that far S again this morning? Sheesh

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:58 AM

CAM's all have convection again

453Braxton 02-Apr-19 11:22 AM

HRRR I see you lol