stormtrack discord - 04-03-19_ok

312will 02-Apr-19 11:24 AM

@Trey (Tulsa OK) It was, yeah. It's going to take some effort to get the 50 Td in Corpus Christi to Elk City. Not unheard of, of course, but I'll want to check observations tomorrow morning

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 12:54 PM

NAM3K still trending west, but at the expense of a couple degrees dews

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 01:15 PM

Trending more marginal by the hour

BJC9533 02-Apr-19 01:24 PM

Shows a point I wanted to make

Trending west alone doesn’t help the event. 58 surface dew in OkC trended west won’t stay 58 surface dewpoint in the model prof

Prof

Prog

Only way the actual mixing ratio increases is if the return flow strengthens or the quality of the gulf is progged to be better. A simple shift to higher elevation will keep mixing ratio the same (on a surface plot dews will decrease a little)

That’s an epic bulge

Jon 02-Apr-19 01:29 PM

https://tenor.com/view/thats-what-she-said-office-comeback-come-back-gif-5515606

4

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 01:29 PM

Hence why I say back the dryline west with mid 50s dews not upper 50s like earlier progs.

312will 02-Apr-19 01:49 PM

Td in Texas... and hat tip to the oil facility that put the sensor in the boiler room for 118F.

If the winds were 30mph out of the SSE (as they can be) I would be more positive for tomorrow. But it ded, Jim.

seanbarg 02-Apr-19 01:52 PM

that 2% was dropped also

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 02-Apr-19 01:53 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 02-Apr-19 02:09 PM

and it's gone.

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 02-Apr-19 02:09 PM

https://tenor.com/view/gone-and-gif-4422663

And it's gone

BJC9533 02-Apr-19 02:13 PM

Yikesly

ryan hearne 02-Apr-19 03:11 PM

To the trees!

10

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 02-Apr-19 03:22 PM

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None

11

8

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 05:49 PM

Gonna suck so bad early tomorrow morning when the models trend much moister all of a sudden and I start to question my decision not to chase

yt-ScienceOutThere 02-Apr-19 06:05 PM

The way this is trending you might not have to go very far

Garrod 02-Apr-19 06:06 PM

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 07:28 PM

So much for chasing tomorrow

lol 2019

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 09:13 PM

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 02-Apr-19 09:14 PM

WeDGe

453Braxton 02-Apr-19 09:22 PM

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 02-Apr-19 09:30 PM

this day is dead

https://tenor.com/view/toast-spongebob-fish-gif-7878826

453Braxton 02-Apr-19 09:33 PM

HRRR = hype

Syryquil 02-Apr-19 09:35 PM

When is it not though?

453Braxton 02-Apr-19 09:35 PM

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 02-Apr-19 09:37 PM

Let's get hrrrd, who's in

bo_sox48 02-Apr-19 09:41 PM

Elevated hailer hype wooo

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 02-Apr-19 09:44 PM

Sunset structure

Tors dont happen in the southern plains anymore so take what you can get

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 02-Apr-19 09:51 PM

Elevated hailers can still make a decent chase for our research but I think we already decided on sitting out tmrw

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 02-Apr-19 09:54 PM

Good thing is, it's close enough to make a last second call tomorrow

wxmeddler 02-Apr-19 09:58 PM

Structure with chance of bust is my forecast

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:38 PM

We decided to sit out too. It ended up being much more of a stretch for me to get there than anticipated. Our overall discussion ended with “If this were mid to late may, would we go out of our way to chase this?”

And the answer was a resounding no

2

The NSSL seems like a weenie WRF - I have no experience with it. Is that a reasonable assessment?

453Braxton 02-Apr-19 10:41 PM

I was about to mention that....

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 10:41 PM

Nah the ARW is more the weenie WRF

I can see why it has such a strong storm there

Getting upper 50s dews to CDS

If it looks like that might happen tomorrow, I'll head out.

ThunderRolls 02-Apr-19 10:43 PM

hows it doing with moisture now?

im checking

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:43 PM

This is what I expected to happen now that we all decided to sit on the sidelines

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 10:43 PM

Not terribly

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:44 PM

HRRR initiated on an axis of 55 F dews

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 10:44 PM

Which I'd probably head out for

ThunderRolls 02-Apr-19 10:44 PM

Yea, its doing alright with moisture right now

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 10:44 PM

I'm pretty certain we'll get initiation if we get those kind of dews.

ThunderRolls 02-Apr-19 10:44 PM

51-52 dews probably arent gonna cut it conversely

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 10:45 PM

If the dews on the NSSL WRF verify, a storm in that position would have tornado potential

BJC9533 02-Apr-19 10:46 PM

@John Homenuk (New York, NY) our of the bunch the NSSL WRF is the preferred CAM of the SPC

not that it’s the best but they have the best handle on how it performs. Definitely don’t think it’s a weenie

Jdbeesonwx 02-Apr-19 10:46 PM

Hell if I was close I'd head out just for some good structure in good terrain if I had unlimited time + money. Not something you often get that far west in early April

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 02-Apr-19 10:48 PM

Nam is bringing it even further west I see

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:49 PM

Got it thank you for feedback on NSSL

I was planning on going tomorrow but it’s gotten very difficult and i’d have to really move mountains to do it. I had to make a decision earlier today and we collectively said we’d sit this out

BJC9533 02-Apr-19 10:49 PM

NAM seems a little west biased this year

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:49 PM

Which of course means everything is now showing supercells

BJC9533 02-Apr-19 10:49 PM

You’re not missing out. You’re just desperate.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 02-Apr-19 10:49 PM

But I still feel confident sitting it out, I wouldn’t chase this in mid or late May

Exactly

BJC9533 02-Apr-19 10:50 PM

Come to terms with it and it’s easy to accept not being there. Why would anyone chase this in peak season, other than absolute boredom and desperation? You wouldn’t.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 02-Apr-19 10:51 PM

Theyll show sups until 3pm tomorrow when everyone arrives and then go quiet

Jdbeesonwx 02-Apr-19 10:52 PM

Conspiracy theory: Chaser convergence has gotten so bad that it's spooking the good storms into hiding when people show up

4

Stebo 02-Apr-19 10:53 PM

https://tenor.com/view/weird-al-crazy-wow-creepy-nuts-gif-5547782

craycray

1

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 11:14 PM

I think I'm gonna pull the trigger tomorrow pending moisture OBS in the morning, initial target would probably be either Childress or Shamrock

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 11:23 PM

Why not Wellington

Stebo 02-Apr-19 11:29 PM

loved that road between shamrock and childress

i believe there is only one town between the two

mcbeewx 02-Apr-19 11:53 PM

My initial target is Childress.

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 11:56 PM

00z Euro backed things west even a bit more, but those dews....

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 02-Apr-19 11:57 PM

The new 00z?

That isn't out yet heh

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 02-Apr-19 11:57 PM

NAM LSI has never shown any strong hint at surface based storms along the DL

haha dang it I forget Weather.US has "most recent" and the same run in "archived"

I did think that seemed a little early, but I lost track of time this evening

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 03-Apr-19 12:02 AM

It's crazy how many marginal days you guys would be chasing in the pre-CAM days.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Apr-19 12:05 AM

Chase everything back then.

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 12:06 AM

I'm always the worst about the first chase of the year. Trying to balance a skeptical forecast and preserve precious days off vs a winter's worth of built up anticipation

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 03-Apr-19 12:07 AM

if anything, CAMs get people to chase more marginal days rather than sit them out

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 12:11 AM

Yea you throw 4-5 HRRR runs with a nice UH track and I'll be second guessing my most confident stay at home days

CAMS are great FOMO generators

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 03-Apr-19 12:12 AM

no doubt

Will 03-Apr-19 12:12 AM

FOMO is increasing tho with instagram and facebook bugging the shit out of everyone

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 03-Apr-19 12:13 AM

i honestly have 0 FOMO about tomorrow, despite any CAM runs, but perhaps ill be shocked. Wouldn't be the first time

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 12:15 AM

I wish I was either 4 hours closer or 4 hours further away from tomorrow, then my choice would be really easy

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 12:17 AM

what is FOMO

More acronyms why

ThunderRolls 03-Apr-19 12:18 AM

fear of missing out

I bought litecoin once so I'm a stock market guru now and I know these acronyms (edited)

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 03-Apr-19 12:19 AM

Fear Of Missing Out was the first acronym to ever be created to be fair

in the history of acronyns

CoD is messing around

so slow

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 12:30 AM

@Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) was trying to figure out what type of oscillation FOMO referred to

1

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 03-Apr-19 12:31 AM

hahaha there's no doubt

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 12:50 AM

I will see you all under the bright blue sky in SAYRE

Enjoy your sleep

I will enjoy these highways

CHASING IS BACK WOOOOOO

6

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 12:56 AM

https://tenor.com/view/myman-rickandmorty-gif-5032364

my man

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 01:11 AM

I lied I’m going to bed night losers

3

2

3

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 01:17 AM

lol. a little late for april fools jokes.

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 01:44 AM

2% BACK ON THE MENU, BOYS.

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 01:51 AM

a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

https://tenor.com/view/sayingtheresachance-chance-yeeeah-jimcarrey-gif-5169610

Last time I created a target area for the panhandle it overperformed. If this happens, I'm in charge of all TA discussions going forward.

312will 03-Apr-19 01:56 AM

Structure ain't a bad Plan B.

To be fair, I'd chase if tomorrow were a Friday. Good luck to you gents tomorrow, hope to see some good stuff.

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 03-Apr-19 02:31 AM

Initiation starting further west is a good sign regarding the disgusting dews lol

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 03-Apr-19 05:49 AM

1

readyletsgo 03-Apr-19 09:09 AM

These Reed Timmer forecasts keep getting better and better

1

Ouguy2017 03-Apr-19 09:12 AM

Sees slight risks looks at current obs map sees current dewpoints Wait, where’s the moisture....?

7

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 03-Apr-19 09:18 AM

Lmao

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 09:56 AM

Well, no last minute cavalry of miracle moisture return this morning. Looks like I'm going to work today

Good luck to anyone chasing. Hope that nice cell on several of the HRRR runs puts on a nice show.

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 10:23 AM

Moisture return is really bad

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 10:28 AM

Yeah I’m out

No sense in wasting my time with this

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 10:30 AM

shot at some high base hail and maybe some photo ops with DPs this low, air will be clear AF

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 10:54 AM

It was always going to be very low in the AM. If you scroll back to the very beginning of this forecast, the moisture return was at best, 18 hours long. Shallow mid-50's are going to be tough to achieve, but they overachieved a tad last time I was in OK. Morning dews started in the low-mid 40's then too.

1

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 10:59 AM

Correct. The moisture return does not begin fully until 18z

If you’re down with getting good structure shots and you live close, you should be out there IMO. Especially near sunset

Aaron (Guymon, OK) 03-Apr-19 11:01 AM

Ergh

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 11:02 AM

Michael moisture return will ramp after lunch but started in the mid/upper 30s in many places along the dryline setup

has a long way to go

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 11:09 AM

I mean I can make a decision after noon if I want to go or not.

I'm leaning no for sure since I have too much work to do

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 03-Apr-19 11:09 AM

Hard to pull the trigger on something like this when we are so close to bigger events

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 11:13 AM

Maybe. That is still iffy.

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 11:26 AM

Andrew - you should go

Also

monsoonman1 03-Apr-19 11:27 AM

https://twitter.com/simonstormrider/status/1113105426608984064?s=21

Simon Brewer (@SimonStormRider)

#weatherpicofday sculpted low precip (LP) supercell rotates over wheat fields, ranches and ancient granite hills of the ancient Wichita Mountains near Roosevelt OK 3 April 2003. This long-lived beautiful storm produced baseball-sized hail over southwest Oklahoma.

Coincidence?

Jon 03-Apr-19 11:28 AM

i cry when i see highlights blown out like that

monsoonman1 03-Apr-19 11:29 AM

Sad

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 11:29 AM

I think not

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 11:29 AM

That photo needs to be inga’d

HRRR looks 2-3 F too high with Td’s in OK based on mesonet

btw

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 12:33 PM

Welp

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 03-Apr-19 12:47 PM

Sig hail added eh

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 12:49 PM

Nice!

Shenanigans are going down in Hollis today.

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 01:06 PM

Altus AFB directly in it

That is where CAMs depict supercell activity

Conveyed that to them today.. they’re not sold (lol)

Oh well. My job is done

benr1001 03-Apr-19 01:10 PM

I enjoyed seeing all the C-17s book it out of Altus last may when the tor watch went out

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 01:12 PM

I've heard there are third world countries more appealing than Altus

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 01:13 PM

there are some pretty neat gypsum caves down there if you are bored and not afraid of a little bit of trespassing

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 01:14 PM

is there anything in SW OK besides illegal caves and the city of Lawton which I've heard is lovely?

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 01:15 PM

The mountains are lovely

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 01:16 PM

Altus I think I would loathe

Vance or McConnell would be amaze balls

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 01:19 PM

If I got offered a job on McConnell I'd dig it

Vance i'm more iffy on

Idk if I'd really want to move to OK sorry @Freshgeek

benr1001 03-Apr-19 01:20 PM

They have storms sometimes, so that's a plus

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 01:20 PM

I haven't heard many good things about OKC or Tulsa and rural OK speaks for itself

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 01:20 PM

Lemme help you

You do not want to move to Oklahoma

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:20 PM

in OKC's defense

its improved

in parts

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 01:21 PM

OKC has been improved but the state as a whole is a poorly run mess that continues to be near the bottom of every quality of life metric other than cost of living

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:22 PM

yes lol

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 01:23 PM

I mean to be fair I'm from the one state that's more poorly run in a lot of areas than OK

Granted it's funky

Huntsville is consistently ranked as one of the top cities in America to live in (edited)

Yet it's convienently located near the northern border of the worst state to live in

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:25 PM

having driven through Alabama...birmingham looks like ass

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 03-Apr-19 01:26 PM

move to IL

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 01:26 PM

let's take this to OT

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 01:27 PM

3

back on subject here

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:29 PM

Hollis is a 2.5 hr drive

Can leave here at like 2:30 and be a-ok

readyletsgo 03-Apr-19 01:42 PM

Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX) 03-Apr-19 01:43 PM

Hollis bout to triple in population

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:45 PM

https://twitter.com/StasIsChasing/status/1113494987415666689

Stas Speransky (@StasIsChasing)

Also HRRR has storms going up at 6. Usually a bad sign when you have to wait that long in marginal environments. Not exactly a capped loaded gun here

Read: everybody chase today

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 01:45 PM

Incoming outbreak

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:46 PM

Also the HRRR has storms initiating at 4 pm so idk what he's talking about

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 01:46 PM

God damnit I knew I should’ve gone

I’d be in OK right now, reading that Stas tweet and celebrating

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 01:47 PM

Seems like what those initial storms do is weaken the cap as they move E enough for new storms to form later on and move into SW OK

ryan hearne 03-Apr-19 01:48 PM

If I leave now I’ll get to target area at 5pm

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 01:58 PM

Stas lol

OKC is awesome

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 03-Apr-19 02:00 PM

Can we add a pic of stas crying to the message reactions?

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 02:01 PM

great idea!

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 02:03 PM

Has anyone invited him on here?

Syryquil 03-Apr-19 02:03 PM

I believe so

Actually no

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 02:17 PM

15-20 kt surface winds with mid-upper 50s dews in S/central TX

C'mon let's go

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 02:25 PM

looking at the models, I kinda like today for a photoshoot/large hail threat

DPs are responding better than I thought they would

shear will be enough to keep some updrafts sustained to create some large hail

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 02:26 PM

Notice there's cloud cover over the moisture source region

May keep it from mixing out a lot

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 02:34 PM

Angelo 03-Apr-19 02:35 PM

Mountain Momma look at that

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 02:35 PM

Inb4 A+++ high-based cone drops on the TX/OK border

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 02:36 PM

I'll cry

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 02:36 PM

@bo_sox48 ur message last night jinxed it

Angelo 03-Apr-19 02:36 PM

I’m all for tubes on my Twitter feed

Remember when everyone missed Dodge City 2018?

Jdbeesonwx 03-Apr-19 02:37 PM

Odds look very low for me to get out to the plains at any point this year so I will have a nice May of sadness and despair

Angelo 03-Apr-19 02:37 PM

Same here

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 02:39 PM

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 02:42 PM

Gosh idk where to target

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 02:42 PM

Tulsa

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 02:43 PM

Your bedroom

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 02:43 PM

Yeah, okay. Let's get weird.

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 02:43 PM

I mean I like the idea of a backlit supercell near the Wichitas

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 02:44 PM

Agree Andrew

not a lot of days of low DP Supercell convection down there, gonna be good photo op

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 02:46 PM

Yeah all of you with "OK" in your location should be going

It's gonna look cool

Aaron (Guymon, OK) 03-Apr-19 02:55 PM

Erm idk

I like it but don’t like it

Worth 70$ in gas?

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 02:58 PM

I can wait until 3 pm if I want (edited)

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:00 PM

What the heck are you driving that costs you $70 in gas to go 150 miles

Jon 03-Apr-19 03:00 PM

i second that question

i even looked up where guymon was

Aaron (Guymon, OK) 03-Apr-19 03:02 PM

Fill up there chase and back

I mean I have a Chevy Malibu with wonderful gas mileage

If I’m highway driving I can punch 400 miles in a tank

And money is a bit tight so

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:11 PM

Epic barber pole tornado outbreak confirmed

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 03:13 PM

he’s driving a Hummer

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:13 PM

I think he's driving a 71 Skylark to get that kind of mileage, even hummers break 10

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 03:14 PM

Man chases severe storm in military grade tank

More at 11

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 03-Apr-19 03:14 PM

I’ve always found it difficult to chase in a semi-truck but that’s just me

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 03:14 PM

You can have a spotter in the back. It has its benefits

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 03-Apr-19 03:15 PM

Save on hotels too

Then again

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:16 PM

Ew

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 03:18 PM

Wtf

Storm Chasing and Basic Hygiene: An instructional guide by John Homenuk

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 03:18 PM

I dont understand the disgust

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:19 PM

Truck stop showers are $14, hotels are $50, pick one

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 03:19 PM

Yeah, if you dont shower, just cover up the smell.

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:19 PM

With more smells? It's not hard to figure out when a guy hasn't showered

Also Stas doesn't have any hair, if you have hair this strategy doesn't work

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 03:20 PM

So if you're on the road for a week, you plan on taking a shower every night?

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 03-Apr-19 03:20 PM

Ideally

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:21 PM

I shower most mornings

If I'm driving overnight I don't

But if I'm sleeping, yeah, I shower

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 03-Apr-19 03:21 PM

At least being some baby wipes or something. Not just deodorant

Bring*

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Apr-19 03:21 PM

Luv to shower on the road.

Wakes me up

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 03:22 PM

You people are crazy. I get it like after a couple of days but I dont smell putrid after one day driving in an air conditioned car

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:23 PM

Do you sleep in your car?

Alex Goldstein (NJ) 03-Apr-19 03:23 PM

^^^^^

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 03:23 PM

I will if I need to

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:23 PM

You won't have the ac on if you're sleeping

Or maybe you will lol

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 03:23 PM

if the temps are in the 60s with a bit of wind, then I dont see the problem

but put something on the windows to not allow bugs in

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:24 PM

4 AM MCS rolls through and you get your shower whether you want it or not

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Apr-19 03:24 PM

Just add soap

I’ve done that

Nkrietz23 (Portage MI) 03-Apr-19 03:24 PM

lolol

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 03:25 PM

If nothing else, walk into a gas station and wash up with their sink

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Apr-19 03:25 PM

Hot 90

day it rains take a natural shower

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 03:26 PM

Strip down and run into a field streaking or you're not XTREME

5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Apr-19 03:26 PM

Did that hiking and camping in the mtns.

Ok OT

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 03:29 PM

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 03:30 PM

Not sure about the just in time moisture next weds

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 03:34 PM

Lol

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 03:35 PM

You've seen it, I know you have

GFS shows mositure returning in time

reality? It's 12 hours late

Maybe the GOM won't get smashed as bad on this next front? If that's the case maybe we get mid 60 DPs?

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 03:39 PM

Wrong thread

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 03:40 PM

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 03:41 PM

Ohh oops

lol

I gotta quit pulling up one thread on my phone and one on the ocmputer, shit gets confusing

wxmeddler 03-Apr-19 04:10 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1113533950226464769

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

3:09pm CDT #SPC_MD 0253 , #okwx #txwx, https://t.co/MmhyCGrnDM

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 04:10 PM

80% watch probs

3

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:10 PM

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 04:12 PM

typical KERR

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 04:12 PM

Glad I'm not going looking at the discussion for SW OK/CDS

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:14 PM

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 04:16 PM

Booms for me later I hope

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:23 PM

Some storms popping up N of Amarillo

1

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 04:23 PM

lolwut

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 04:24 PM

garbage... we know which storm we are waiting on

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:24 PM

Yeah, I know, just mentioning them lol

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 04:25 PM

what if HRRR is wrong

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:25 PM

impossaible

312will 03-Apr-19 04:37 PM

Lmao almost on cue

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201904032009-KOUN-NOUS64-FTMFDR

NOUS64 KOUN 032009 FTMFDR MESSAGE DATE: APR 03 2019 20:32:49 KFDR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. TECHNICIANS ENROUTE. BROWN, WFO OUN

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 04:37 PM

wedges incoming

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 04:38 PM

That. is beautiful.

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:38 PM

Seriously?!

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:38 PM

sabotage

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:38 PM

Lmao

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 04:38 PM

Lmao

What a shock

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 04:39 PM

LOL WTF

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:39 PM

https://twitter.com/ChaserTV/status/1113534699350183936?s=19 ChaserTV predicted it lmao (edited)

ChaserTV (@ChaserTV)

Safe to assume KFDR will go offline in the next hour or so... #murphyslaw https://t.co/rO6I4bxSTN

bo_sox48 03-Apr-19 04:39 PM

Imagine that on a severe day where it actually mattered

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 04:39 PM

Good job NWS with another radar outage when its needed

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:40 PM

i wonder if they need more funding

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 04:40 PM

They might, but I think one earlier this year was planned maintenance...WTF

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 04:41 PM

KFDR was an inside job! Wake up SHEEPLE!

2

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:41 PM

thats what im saying! it was sabotage

for more funding

John Homenuk (New York, NY) 03-Apr-19 04:41 PM

supercells coming

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:42 PM

and ChaserTV is in on it

Trey (Tulsa OK) 03-Apr-19 04:45 PM

chasertv still around?

didn't they get bought by severe studios or something?

seems like they got bought and it went to crap pretty quickly

wxmeddler 03-Apr-19 04:48 PM

Yellow Box

https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/status/1113543383061020679

NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm)

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Texas until 10 PM CDT

3

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:49 PM

Tennis balls wooo

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 04:49 PM

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:49 PM

Lol

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 04:50 PM

You know. this is certainly becoming a chaseable event. I wonder if that Day 3 moderate will verify anyway.

3

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:52 PM

you of all people dont deserve to talk about that

1

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 04:52 PM

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing along the dryline in the central Texas Panhandle should slowly shift east towards western Oklahoma this evening. Large hail is the primary hazard, but severe wind gusts are possible as well. The risk for a tornado should be confined to between 7 to 10 PM CDT across the southeast portion of the watch.

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 04:53 PM

I see at least 5 STDers out there

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 04:53 PM

STDers. I like it

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:53 PM

sounds terrible

just like stds

terrible

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 04:53 PM

Treatable

with medication

Jon 03-Apr-19 04:53 PM

@Freshgeek can rocks get STD's?

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 04:54 PM

We are not treatable

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 04:54 PM

I havent gotten one yet from a rock

wait no

I mean how would I know?

Jon 03-Apr-19 05:12 PM

is there some terrain feature or something thats causing line of dead zone from the radar that slices through everything?

wxmeddler 03-Apr-19 05:21 PM

@Jon Probably a cell tower or something.

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 05:33 PM

SVR N of Amarillo

Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM) 03-Apr-19 05:37 PM

That little slice that missing from AMA is actually the Amarillo Airport tower

monsoonman1 03-Apr-19 05:40 PM

https://twitter.com/mcbeewx/status/1113556815449677827?s=21

Chris McBee (@McBeeWX)

Severe storm near Hedley, TX. #txwx

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 05:57 PM

Rotating wall cloud reported S of Borger, TX (edited)

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 05:57 PM

any streamers?

453Braxton 03-Apr-19 06:05 PM

KFDR is back up!!!

1

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 06:14 PM

So about the people that thought this would cap bust

RIP

Stas fucked up again

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:15 PM

This was never going to cap bust lol

A trough ejecting like that.. oof

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 06:15 PM

He needs to stop playing by rules of thumb and actually look at the setup

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:15 PM

Rules of thumb suck

Every time stas calls bust I'm chasing lol

This is a good omen for the rest of the season. EML is legit this year. Not too cooking. Low-mid 50s a year ago and this is a cloudless sky.

2

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 06:18 PM

But is still there enough to not have a giant mass of junk convection e.g. 2015

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:19 PM

Most likely a function of drought in the EML region, but I can't help but think that we have better ambient baroclinicity (large-scale support) than recent years.. Though I have zero support

Troy4321 03-Apr-19 06:19 PM

Yeah I won’t complain with a warm EML until it becomes a problem

seanbarg 03-Apr-19 06:19 PM

https://twitter.com/seanramseySPP/status/1113566508691664896

Sean Ramsey (@seanramseySPP)

Developing wall cloud near Memphis TX #txwx

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 06:19 PM

Those bases look lower than I thought they would today

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:20 PM

Would honestly expect a tornado this evening. A definite shot of one.

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 06:20 PM

Uh huh. Keep talking. Lol.

Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) 03-Apr-19 06:20 PM

Fuck lol

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 06:20 PM

J/k.

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:20 PM

Tomorrow and Saturday will add several tornadoes each I would think.

ERTAF BUST

jk not sure what we'd need to bust BA

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 06:20 PM

Like 24

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 06:21 PM

32 (edited)

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 06:21 PM

Well maybe more like 20. Don’t know what sigma they use for average

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 06:21 PM

Im trying to translate ertaf, gimme a moment lol

yt-ScienceOutThere 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

Are we in last weeks week 1? I forget.

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

goddamit, wait lol

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

lmao well then yeah we're hitting BA no matter what unless tomorrow and Saturday produce like 12 tornadoes each

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

23

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

23?

Freshgeek 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

I hate the table they use

BJC9533 03-Apr-19 06:22 PM

For average?