23 is dead average. Wonder what the plus or minus would be.
Freshgeek03-Apr-19 06:23 PM
Yeah, thats based on climo
Troy432103-Apr-19 06:26 PM
But thatโs not a good way of doing it the distribution of tornadoes on a small temporal scale like a week is completely useless IMO just like precip you canโt take climo and statistics on a week or less time period
you're not missing much, even if it produces a tornado. You think there won't be 10+ more of these types of marginal supercell days (even if it does overperform?)
bo_sox4803-Apr-19 06:29 PM
I want all of them though
And this stupid pos has nice inflow
It's gonna do it
And probably not just wrap up immediately either
Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK)03-Apr-19 06:29 PM
Eh I still have my doubts about tornadoes
bo_sox4803-Apr-19 06:29 PM
Imagine one coming from that though
Is it not worth a shot?
I'm gonna go cry
BJC953303-Apr-19 06:30 PM
14 hour drive? nah fam lol
bo_sox4803-Apr-19 06:30 PM
I miss 14 hour drives lol
BJC953303-Apr-19 06:30 PM
5 and I was annoyed lol
Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK)03-Apr-19 06:30 PM
I also am not regretting passing on today(edited)
BJC953303-Apr-19 06:31 PM
that passive voice bruh
Garrod03-Apr-19 06:31 PM
I would have been all over that if I lived in OKC lol
3
BJC953303-Apr-19 06:31 PM
Passive voice AF lol
Yeah if I was still an undergrad student i woulda been out there. just because
Shit even if I was off here I'd probably have gone. Marginal AF but still
Getting itโs act together somewhat. Looking West #txwx
Forgot Discord doesn't do multiple pics in a tweet.
BJC953303-Apr-19 06:35 PM
Even though I wish I was out there I'm cheering hard for this system.
A year that doesn't bust bad at every corner would be a big welcomed change of pace for the 2010s.. I'm feeling overly positive right now. Supercell season is legit back.
312will03-Apr-19 06:37 PM
Is it the forcing or the EML (or both) allowing low 50s Td to go like this? Something else? I wouldn't normally have expected this without mid 60F+ Td off the Caprock.
you could almost see it spinning even tho that is a still image
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-Apr-19 07:11 PM
at about 330 today my boss was like "shit we shouldve chased"
BJC953303-Apr-19 07:12 PM
Yes
Lol stephen I just said the literal same thing
"when you can see the rotation in a still image >>>>"
that is oofly
Stebo03-Apr-19 07:12 PM
just getting me pumped for may
Garrod03-Apr-19 07:12 PM
just seeing how green the panhandle is gets the noggin jogging for some late May shenanigans
Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK)03-Apr-19 07:13 PM
And yeah this speaks to good potential later on
Everything is so moist
312will03-Apr-19 07:14 PM
I walked out of a meeting to leave, but got pulled aside for 30 minutes to discuss our Sunday crawfish boil, so after that was nahhh what could possibly happen that I won't mind missing?
3
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)03-Apr-19 07:14 PM
KFDR down?
wxmeddler03-Apr-19 07:14 PM
No
Was earlier
Stebo03-Apr-19 07:15 PM
"Everything is so moist" that is too easy to make a joke
@Freshgeek should be upset he didnt drive over there
Freshgeek03-Apr-19 07:18 PM
I am
Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK)03-Apr-19 07:18 PM
fuck
seanbarg03-Apr-19 07:18 PM
we have been saying barber poles n structure for 2 days now
Freshgeek03-Apr-19 07:18 PM
Thankfully I'll get many more chances this year
I wouldn't be able to convince my manager to let head out for this anyway
312will03-Apr-19 07:19 PM
Best part for those out there today: It's a low end slight risk on a Tuesday in April, which means you don't have to fight the OKC Horde that will show up in May.
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)03-Apr-19 07:19 PM
Nice very nice.
Epic to see that there.
Freshgeek03-Apr-19 07:19 PM
I'll use this PTO for may/june
Jdbeesonwx03-Apr-19 07:20 PM
@Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK) Don't skip the structure with friends LP days. I learned that back in 2017
Let's have the best year we can have.. there or not
Garrod03-Apr-19 07:37 PM
Chapman day hopefully will remain my worst bust, I don't know if I could take another one of those
BJC953303-Apr-19 07:37 PM
lol
Man.. 2016.. what could've been had I had a car and money
Jon03-Apr-19 07:38 PM
hm. that statement of brandon's might convince me to become team tornado.. hm
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-Apr-19 07:38 PM
yup feeling stupid for not getting out there today
shouldve pushed my boss harder to actually consider going
Nkrietz23 (Portage MI)03-Apr-19 07:41 PM
Itโs hurts looking at that
Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM)03-Apr-19 07:46 PM
Don't let that pent up SDS get to you. There were plenty of smart reasons not to go out today. We knew beautiful structure was quite possible. But a Wednesday for structure is pretty expensive if your vacation/coworker limited.
That said if this thing drops a photogenic tor then I will eat my hat. or my cat. or whatever else is in forking distance.
Andrew Berrington (Norman, OK)03-Apr-19 07:48 PM
I think there's too much low level CINH for it to produce a tor
Timmer is just a sideshow act anymore. He doesn't do research; he is just a celebrity, and that is the only cred he has anymore. I bet he hasn't done one useful thing with his PhD. https://t.co/cmnznXgiKc
Whatโs his net worth? Whatever it is he is self made. Mad props.
readyletsgo03-Apr-19 09:04 PM
I donโt think timmer really advertises himself as a scientific researcher so w/e
People are allowed to be popular
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:05 PM
He really just trolls these days. Thatโs the life
seanbarg03-Apr-19 09:05 PM
but the rockets for science data
and the sensors
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:05 PM
Estimated net worth of 250 K. Man if I could achieve that by chasing
readyletsgo03-Apr-19 09:05 PM
Yeah he kinda is the exception though
Thatโs not realistic. Kinda a right place right time thing for him
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:06 PM
Thatโs what Iโm saying
Jon03-Apr-19 09:11 PM
duda's twitter looks more political than it did the last time i remember looking at it like a year ago
Troy432103-Apr-19 09:12 PM
Yeah Iโm not a huge fan of politics really ruins twitter for me
seanbarg03-Apr-19 09:13 PM
i just followed him again.. and then unfollowed after scrolling down
sorry Duda
Jon03-Apr-19 09:14 PM
i dont understand everyones giant aversion to politics. you gotta be in the mood to handle the amount of bullshit spewed from both sides, but thats it imo
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:15 PM
lol yeah the aversion to politics is exactly what is wrong
But I'm not finna get banned
Jon03-Apr-19 09:16 PM
yo does anyone have any idea why the velocity data has been such crap on this storm? theres no storms b/w it and the radar and the hail is downstream of the beam
i remember a thing where sometimes the beam thought it was reading data at lets say.. 2,000 feet but the beam like.. refracted or something? further up in elevation and returned something from 4,000 feet(edited)
bo_sox4803-Apr-19 09:17 PM
I was assuming it's because it's not a tornadic storm lol
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:18 PM
That's sidelobe contamination
And due to the presence of tons of hailstones aloft
Jon03-Apr-19 09:20 PM
so the TLDR version would be that velocity scans can get FUBAR due to storm w. a lot of hail?(edited)
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:21 PM
a lobe in the vertical may hit hail or other dense particles aloft (but thinks it is in the low levels) and it will read those higher level winds as low level winds
But yeah it shits all over the velocity data
Jon03-Apr-19 09:21 PM
this is def one of the worst velocity scans in terms of FUBARness
BJC953303-Apr-19 09:21 PM
megawedge
bo_sox4803-Apr-19 09:22 PM
Pilger and el reno right there
Jon03-Apr-19 09:22 PM
so.. operationally when this happens.. you would have to rely on other products to infer a potential tornado?
i kept looking at zdr to see if it did that size sorting thing along the inflow and ofc looking at reflectivity
312will03-Apr-19 09:27 PM
Elmer 2.0 Light
Jdbeesonwx03-Apr-19 09:34 PM
Real talk does he ever do anything except complain?
Jon03-Apr-19 09:34 PM
who
Jdbeesonwx03-Apr-19 09:35 PM
Duda
Jon03-Apr-19 09:35 PM
might be accurate
seanbarg03-Apr-19 09:35 PM
yea prolly not
Ryan Darr (McKinney, TX)03-Apr-19 09:35 PM
seanbarg03-Apr-19 09:36 PM
Ryan you got pics of that windshield yet?
Jdbeesonwx03-Apr-19 09:36 PM
yes back on topic of
seanbarg03-Apr-19 09:37 PM
like insane off topic lol
can imagine why since it was just one cell lol
Jdbeesonwx03-Apr-19 09:37 PM
It's so off topic we're getting off topic talking about how off topic it is
I wore out my camera tonight. Wow. #supercell #okwx #koco5 #StormHour
Adam Reagan (Norman, OK)03-Apr-19 10:53 PM
Thanks guys
12
12
Mike Maโz (Minneapolis, MN)03-Apr-19 10:53 PM
today's supercell was definitely well documented
Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM)03-Apr-19 10:53 PM
needs some sup lapse!
Stephen Henry (ABQ, NM)03-Apr-19 11:57 PM
For posterity on this day: the HRRR's UH model trend performance vs radar. We can all watch this later this year when the HRRR is out to lunch and reminisce about the good ol days.