Stormtrack - 01-10-2020-tx_ar_la

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Jan-20 10:07 PM

Let's see how this goes. %15 is up Day 6.

01-11 00z 120hrs 500mb W. There's it is! (edited)

Morphtato 06-Jan-20 04:01 AM

Upped to 30%

Doppler 06-Jan-20 08:58 AM

Noir 06-Jan-20 09:39 AM

Am I really going to drag myself to

land in the middle of January...

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-Jan-20 11:01 AM

man 2020 hype train leaving the damn station even before i can get a 2020 severe season forecast assembled lol

GrayGhost 06-Jan-20 11:04 AM

LMAO I wondered what y'all were thinking John. I hadn't had a chance to ask Heather yet. As of right now, unless I get held up at a shipper on Thursday, I expect to be out chasing Friday.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-Jan-20 11:06 AM

im gonna guess theres a pretty low chance we chase friday. usually a pretty hard pass on texas treefest

GrayGhost 06-Jan-20 11:08 AM

I've been rearranging my setup in my rig (again) and so I can't pass up a shakedown run to test it out

It does appear that the Euro is way more aggressive with this than the GFS is right now

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 06-Jan-20 11:16 AM

Reeds getting hyped, watch out

9

AverageBreh 06-Jan-20 01:38 PM

Shakedown runs are probably among my favorite chases of any year.

6

Morphtato 06-Jan-20 01:41 PM

https://twitter.com/evan_bentley/status/1214270311337725956

Evan Bentley (@evan_bentley)

Fri/Sat is concerning. Still a lot of uncertainty related to storm mode/pre-frontal development/timing, etc, but it looks increasingly likely the best conditions will be present late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Nocturnal severe weather is never a good thing.

Krietz 06-Jan-20 01:57 PM

Night time Dixie

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-Jan-20 04:17 PM

nocturnal events and dixie name a better duo

10

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 06-Jan-20 05:34 PM

Currently debating on chasing or not , off work that day and the 30% is about an hour and a half from my location

AverageBreh 06-Jan-20 07:28 PM

Shake off the cobwebs and make sure everything works.

Chris Jackson 06-Jan-20 08:28 PM

I’ll be there. Wanna get some time flying the drone on some quality storms.

4

GrayGhost 07-Jan-20 08:23 AM

Shreveport CWA freqs are input. Just need to load the new codeplug into the radio when I'm home Wednesday (edited)

AverageBreh 07-Jan-20 03:38 PM

SHV's zone was hard as hell to find out, too.

GrayGhost 07-Jan-20 03:54 PM

Actually it wasn't that hard. They have a spotters guide PDF that includes the freqs and where those repeaters are located.

AverageBreh 07-Jan-20 06:12 PM

Damn, do you have a link? (edited)

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 08-Jan-20 12:07 AM

Sig Tor parameter for 21z friday (nam run)

Morphtato 08-Jan-20 02:35 AM

CanadianStormChaser 08-Jan-20 06:17 AM

Day 3 ENH

Brad Arnold (Huntsville, AL) 08-Jan-20 08:20 AM

I like the last paragraph in the discussion!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 09:02 AM

That usually means people are going to die.

AverageBreh 08-Jan-20 09:06 AM

Yeah, I agree. Bad portent.

I've got a friend that lives in ArkLaTex, and have been keeping him updated. Dude's solid, Marine Corps, and isn't obtuse, and he's paying attention. Although, saying it's God's will.

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 10:07 AM

Guy I know in Louisiana actually went out and bought a weather radio after me suggesting it due to the timing of this event. It's a refreshing change to have someone hear about the risk and actually take steps to be prepared

12

AverageBreh 08-Jan-20 12:01 PM

Absolutely.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 04:39 PM

That system is lagging further west than yesterday. That's a trend I can get behind. (edited)

If the 12Z NAM is to be believed, I have to go to Yellow alert starting tomorrow.

DFW might end up just getting the linear crap along the front, but if the pre-frontal stuff can initiate just east of here, that's something. There's a bit of space east of DFW that is workable for decent chasing before the jungles start.

Any potential setup with seasonably-insane shear coupled with CAPE over 1500 j/kg has my attention. (edited)

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 04:42 PM

Yeah I called the westward trend on my post on the ST forum. I fully expected to shift my target to the west some. I'll be out as long as I can get back to OKC and out of the big rig at a decent time.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 04:44 PM

I have to watch this now. Might just drive an hour east of DFW and hope something can form southwest or west of us. The 20 corridor is decent for about an hour past Dallas, up along 30 not as much. (edited)

But you know this , LOL

I sometimes forget what you do for a living when we're discussing weather.

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 04:52 PM

LMAO yeah I'm very familiar with both corridors. Usually it I'm coming into DFW though it's on 20. There are actually some ok areas north of 30 up to about US-70 as you run past farmland and across the Red River as well, but that's much closer to Texarkana.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 04:52 PM

Just checked out the NAM nest (I forget that's out to 48hrs). It has initiation west of FWD.

Strapped for cash but the fact we'd only be going an hour east of here max almost justifies the attempt LOL.

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 04:54 PM

I understand that. I just hope we don't get dicked by some shipper tomorrow. But this westward trend means I don't have as long a drive to the TA either so that's very helpful on my end

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 04:55 PM

Indeed.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 08-Jan-20 05:16 PM

This is making me wish I was still working 3 day 12 hour shifts.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 05:24 PM

I wouldn't bother if it wasn't on my doorstep, but I'm picky. Plus I have always been burned by stuff east of DFW when I pass.

I guess I spent one too many afternoons in Greenville, sitting in Starbucks drinking Pumpkin Spice lattes, seeing nothing.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 08-Jan-20 05:26 PM

My roommate has plans on going out Friday. I would join him but I'm not burning a sick day on a January setup.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 05:27 PM

Promise me you won't come on here complaining if he brings home wedges on his camera LOL

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 08-Jan-20 05:28 PM

He's one of the few I want to see score on Friday.

1

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 05:29 PM

I'm just happy it falls into one of my days home. There were far too few of those last year.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 08-Jan-20 05:29 PM

And he'd probably bring home wedges on my old camcorder.

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 05:33 PM

I need to pull the trigger on a new camcorder but the wallet isn't ready. And of course my dumb ass has been procrastinating on ordering a Gripper mount as well.

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 06:24 PM

Ok I posted some more thoughts on the ST forum thread for those interested.

jordand71 08-Jan-20 06:28 PM

Ok I posted some more thoughts on the ST forum thread for those interested.

@GrayGhost post a link in equipment so were not gummying up target area

GrayGhost 08-Jan-20 06:29 PM

It's not for equipment. I posted in the target area thread on the forum.

https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/2020-01-10-event-tx-la.31288/#post-364213

2020-01-10 EVENT: TX/LA

The first major event of 2020 looks to be shaping up for Friday and Saturday. An intense mid/ upper level trough will be ejecting over the Southern plains, and ample moisture flow north appears to be in play. As the trough ejects, a surface low will likely develop over north ...

1

That's what I was referring to. Not anything equipment related @jordand71

benr1001 08-Jan-20 10:00 PM

Glad I have Friday off

Probably just gonna hang out at home, hopefully things will fire to the west and I can just hop into my car and go east

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 08-Jan-20 10:10 PM

Yeah you're primed

I might have to jog east a bit, unless it becomes apparent the WS will remained capped throughout the diurnal cycle. (edited)

benr1001 08-Jan-20 10:19 PM

FWD says triple point should be right on top of me

Never a bad time for an IMBY chase

Morphtato 09-Jan-20 01:05 AM

TORNADO: 10% SIG - ENHANCED WIND: 30% SIG - ENHANCED HAIL: 30% SIG - ENHANCED

benr1001 09-Jan-20 02:31 AM

Yep, trended west a bit

Perfect

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 04:28 AM

https://tenor.com/view/cat-paw-power-purrfect-kitty-kitten-gif-11601813

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 09-Jan-20 06:14 AM

Seeing the trends and the moisture at play for this event I keep forgetting we’re in the first 10 days of January

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jan-20 06:22 AM

Yeah kinda screwy.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jan-20 06:29 AM

GFS is bending the knee to NAM and Euro. For timing of this system now. Since I haven't seen any models since Sunday night.

GrayGhost 09-Jan-20 06:47 AM

Lol @Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) did you mean for that to go into #01-11-2020-la_ms_al_fl_tn_ga?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jan-20 06:48 AM

Fixed it. (edited)

@GrayGhost Thank you for correcting me. Nothing to see here. Move along. hehehe

GrayGhost 09-Jan-20 06:59 AM

Now that I'm stopped, I have a chance to look over things again. Didn't have that chance when I woke up

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 09-Jan-20 07:16 AM

Still pulled it west a bit, and they actually mentioned the potential of any storm upon initiation like can remain discrete.....pretty much what I was blabbing in here about last night. I'm surprised they had that much confidence in the possibility of the scenario to mention it.

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 09-Jan-20 11:34 AM

Moderate for wind, enh tornado tomorrow

Trey (Tulsa OK) 09-Jan-20 03:29 PM

This is a potent system.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 09-Jan-20 04:55 PM

I managed to get tomorrow off so I'll be heading out.

1

JasonWX 09-Jan-20 07:04 PM

I’m 90% sure I’m not heading out tomorrow. Not wanting to play with 50+ kt storm motions in the jungle. I’ll watch from my couch

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jan-20 07:07 PM

@Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) You have the lead!

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 07:08 PM

still questioning my target area and if i should switch it or not

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 09-Jan-20 07:10 PM

Where are you heading?

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 09-Jan-20 07:18 PM

IDK yet, I've been too busy to look at the models and pick a target. I'm wanting to be south of the Red River. Problem is my roommate who I'll likely be chasing with wants to stay north of the river. 5/20 rattled his nerves on chasing around the Red River.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 09-Jan-20 07:38 PM

good luck to everyone chasing tmrw

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 09-Jan-20 07:40 PM

He's right.

With 50mph speeds you don't need to get stuck at a river.

Srm should be NE-NNE. That will take anything south of the river across it in a hurry. If you're not sitting at a crossing, you're gonna lose it.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 09-Jan-20 07:44 PM

My target yesterday was somewhere between Hugo and Paris, but with the westward trend IDK if I should stick with that target. I haven't had time to look at the models today and I'm at the laundromat attm.

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 09-Jan-20 07:50 PM

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX)

You will get a fast moving violent wedge type tornado tomorrow just west or southwest of where you live

Ouguy2017 09-Jan-20 07:58 PM

60+ dews already in DFW

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 09-Jan-20 08:00 PM

I see the 36hr HRRR that's coming out fires some "stuff" near LA/TX border a few hours after it fires that line.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 09-Jan-20 08:05 PM

That's the plan

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 08:10 PM

@Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) had the same plan to stay north of the river Was thinking around Hugo but now looking towards McAlester / slightly south east

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jan-20 08:10 PM

Even Deep 'SE' KS might even have a chance at TORing? LOL, I said SW instead of SE

Oh gaud, I'm tired. Going to bed. See yeah guys. GL on picking your target areas. (edited)

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 08:10 PM

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 09-Jan-20 09:02 PM

Probably would be smart to stay north of the river after looking at the models.

Chris Jackson 09-Jan-20 09:06 PM

00Z in Corpus Christi....

AverageBreh 09-Jan-20 09:30 PM

McCurtain County OK?

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 09:43 PM

Close to that area , maybe a little bit south @AverageBreh

benr1001 09-Jan-20 09:48 PM

I'm not planning on crossing the river

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 09-Jan-20 09:48 PM

Man, that's a tough area terrain-wise. I went once when I was a newb, haven't been back since.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 09:52 PM

That’s what I’m worried about, If I need to drop south I’ll crossover into McAlester and take 69 down to a good stopping point. Terrain is tough in that area, especially near Sardis lake

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 09-Jan-20 09:54 PM

I saw a tornado near Wilburton back in 2001, it just happened to show itself as we were in a 2-3 mile stretch of flat nestled within the miles and miles of hills and trees.

Saw a tornado near Fate once too. Other than those two, I've seen zilch in eastern OK.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 09-Jan-20 09:57 PM

Gotta love those ouchita mountains Growing up in the area I know the routes and stuff and what ways not to take , thinking about setting up in McAlester and playing off that

So I can do something like this, drop south or East

benr1001 10-Jan-20 12:39 AM

SPC seems less confident about prefrontal supercells

Still confident enough for a 10% though

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 10-Jan-20 01:01 AM

HRRR has been pretty consistent with these cells on the 20z run, watching this closely

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 01:08 AM

Same here

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:31 AM

Beautiful

Just keep May '19 high risk in mind

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:44 AM

(SW OK loser here)

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 05:45 AM

Here is a MD regarding an upgrade to moderate for an expanded area https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0008.html

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 8

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 06:36 AM

MCD out -- `Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail may develop across western OK and far south-central KS during the next few hours.`

E l e v a t e d storms.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 06:58 AM

New MCD out. Woah, SPC changed that.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 06:58 AM

Looks like 15%tor got put back in day 1

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 06:58 AM

`Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 101053Z - 101300Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Moderate Risk will occur across central/eastern AR, far northeast LA, northwest/west-central MS, and far southwest TN with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...Based on recent guidance, the probability for significant wind gusts (i.e. gusts at or above 75 mph) to occur late tonight into early Saturday across northeast LA, central/eastern AR, far southwest TN, and northwest/west-central MS has increased. This increase in probability merits an increase to Moderate Risk, which will occur with the upcoming 13Z Convective Outlook. This expanded Moderate Risk will include Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN. ` (edited)

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 06:59 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 07:01 AM

Tornado Risk 15% (edited)

Chris Jackson 10-Jan-20 07:02 AM

Loaded Gun FTW

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 07:03 AM

Here we go.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 07:21 AM

Just came here to post that same sounding

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 07:46 AM

Watch issued for northern OK southern KS (edited)

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 07:59 AM

That DFW sounding though, at 12z, for January. Sheesh

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 08:07 AM

Yeah Jan that's more then enough. Cells be moving at or around 40mph-ish. 300+ SHR, 2000 cape, CINH just right -19 to -22, Lapse rates more then enough and shear knots 52 to 77. The 77knts shear is the LCL, that's screaming along. lol, yeah it's chasing time.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 08:15 AM

We're not exactly socked in cloud wise either. There are clouds, but it's very broken

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 08:20 AM

yeah kinda like it is here in the Upstate of SC.

Trey (Tulsa OK) 10-Jan-20 08:35 AM

Glen you think storm motions will be that slow? I was thinking more like 40-45kts (not trying to split hairs here) which means closer to 50mph.

Chris Strunk 10-Jan-20 08:59 AM

Mixed clouds/sun in Longview, TX

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 09:10 AM

@Trey (Tulsa OK) I split the difference. Seeing 31 to 47knts I think it was?

really anything over 40 is moving fast.

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 09:17 AM

Newest meso

https://i.imgur.com/xIhk9og.jpg

New watch seems likely

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 09:18 AM

Right now I am trying to get to Sulphur Springs Texas. Might move a little bit further north based on that mezzo. Looks to be interesting this afternoon.

Meso

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 09:22 AM

ugh dammit am i gonna get baited out at lunchtime today into eastern oklahoma

Trey (Tulsa OK) 10-Jan-20 09:23 AM

Yeah Glen I agree with that. (sorry for delay in and out of meetings till 3pm grrrrr)

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 09:24 AM

@John Choquette (Edmond, OK)

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 09:25 AM

dammit lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 09:26 AM

@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) baited - lol. Naw man, nothing like chasing in Jan. No leaves on trees.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 09:27 AM

derik did already ask if we should chase today like first thing this morning

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 09:28 AM

I'm off today, but I just don't like going to SE OK. Trees be damned

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 09:29 AM

yeah the terrian.

Doppler 10-Jan-20 09:51 AM

Okay HRRR

20z

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 09:53 AM

Has anyone else gotten a kick out of the fact that some places are in a winter storm watch and also a severe thunderstorm watch?

JPC101 10-Jan-20 09:55 AM

Yeah. It’s entertaining.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 10:07 AM

Mucho spotter network dots in Dallas lol wonder why

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 10:09 AM

Probably still at home.

We're waking up in the target. I see no reason to go anywhere else attm.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 10:10 AM

They’re streaming in haha. I shouldn’t talk. I’m one of them

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 10:11 AM

In a way, these backyard chases are almost more difficult than normal, over-the-road type chases. You sit and sit and sit and eventually you're like "why drive 40 miles in any direction over just staying here?" And then the storms go up and you just kind of react. Goes against my instincts, really.

I was prepared to drive as far as an hour east of Dallas, but there's no reason to do that I can see currently. (edited)

Maybe that changes in the next few hours, I dunno.

I prefer the normal chases where you make a forecast and drive to some place LOL.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 10:15 AM

last time we chased in dallas we rear ended some lady LOL

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 10:22 AM

I’m just sitting in the lab watching the GOES floater

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:23 AM

That's a great place to be! Can't wait to be back in there next week

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 10:26 AM

storm in eastern OK looks to have some rotation to it

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 10:26 AM

I’m just coming into Texarkana, and it is clearing off pretty nicely over here.

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 10:26 AM

It's not tight or anything, but definitely shows what the atmosphere is working with today

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:27 AM

I'm sitting in Rockwall at a friend's debating if I even want to go back home

I watched the 12/26/15 Rowlett tornado from this same house

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 10:28 AM

Tornado possible tag added to it

https://i.imgur.com/p89Wc8P.jpg

Sorry, don't want to post to many radar images here, since this needs to be more discussion based.

And it went tornado warning

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:30 AM

@Trey (Tulsa OK) Oh hey, thanks and this would be great to talk about over in #chaserchat. how you keep up and manuever around storms. Everyone has there own way.

wow now?!

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 10:30 AM

Yep

Whoops

not that one

one to the south of it

Near Holdenville

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:33 AM

Yeah got 2 circulations in that Thunderstorm warning. One way north one way south. (edited)

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:34 AM

Definitely a sign of things to come

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 10:34 AM

Exactly Ben

It's amazing, it's 10:30, these storms aren't really well defined, and they are already rotating

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:35 AM

Sorry for the confussion, I was talking about Prague, OK storm cells.

I meant Thunderstorm warning.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:38 AM

I thing I'll just hang out in Rockwall for now. Not much point in going further west

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:38 AM

There goes Prague (edited)

JasonWX 10-Jan-20 10:38 AM

Well, I’m chasing.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:38 AM

View is great out here too

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:38 AM

Alright Jason!

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 10:41 AM

First Tors are up in Oklahoma

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:42 AM

Puts OK in the lead for that area for 2020. lol

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 10:43 AM

Ummmmmm

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1215674937383370752?s=19

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Missouri and Oklahoma until 6 PM CST

Is that only 5 counties?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:43 AM

oh reed, ya gotta say it.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 10:46 AM

Off the big rig. Need fuel then I'll be rolling

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 10:46 AM

Good luck drew. Safe travels.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:49 AM

@GrayGhost NICE!

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:49 AM

This is awesome. Couldn't be any more IMBY than the October Dallas Tornado that I was away at school for

Probably glad I was though, that one was a little too close for comfort

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 10:53 AM

Oh man envy you guys out there. Enjoy and stay safe.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 10:57 AM

Ben might be in a better location than we are, but for now I can't commit to leaving. I still think the initial stuff will be west/southwest of here.

I'm fully-committed to playing the initial line area. I gave up on WS stuff yesterday LOL.

I wasn't convinced it would happen before dark. So while we're getting rain and thunder in FWD, Ben will be watching a wedge cross the lake LOL.

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 10:58 AM

Tornado watch is from OKC East.

Probs on that watch are a little crazy. 70% of 2 or more tornadoes, 50% of an EF2+

benr1001 10-Jan-20 11:07 AM

Wow

We'll see

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 11:08 AM

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) I agree. I’m still deciding which direction to head from here, if I even decide before initiation

benr1001 10-Jan-20 11:08 AM

Shane I'm expecting initiation closer to you, maybe further WSW, I'm banking on catching a tail end cell before it crosses the river

@Chris Maupin Did you get to see our little EF-2 last April?

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 11:14 AM

No I missed a lot of the season because I was abroad

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 11:17 AM

That's my plan too. Or maybe hope lol.

3

benr1001 10-Jan-20 11:20 AM

Nice!

I'm going on the research trip with Dr Nowotarski in May, can't wait for that

Satellite trends don't look great for getting clearing here

benr1001 10-Jan-20 11:36 AM

Well. Guess I just sit and wait. Cheaper than gas though

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 11:39 AM

Hi Ben! In that case, nice to "meet" you!

benr1001 10-Jan-20 11:40 AM

You too! I'll see you around the wx center i'm sure

1

I actually switched from meteorology to geography but I got my met minor and like to stay as involved as I can

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 11:45 AM

No worries!

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 11:48 AM

Tornado watch coming for Texas

95% chance

https://i.imgur.com/a3Dilc5.jpg

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 11:49 AM

This WAA is really killing the target right now.

I'd love for it not to be raining constantly until real initiation. But that might be the case.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 11:54 AM

I'm debating whether I want to cross the River or not. But I still have till Ardmore to make that call

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 11:56 AM

Cap currently holding in central OK

benr1001 10-Jan-20 11:59 AM

Yeah WAA is gross

Danger Boy 10-Jan-20 12:00 PM

is there a field to check cap strength on spc mesoanalysis? or do you just eyeball it based on storms not firing?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:01 PM

I think it's gonna be this way all damn day. Just early stuf, with a SLOOOOOW intensification throughout the day, and then suddenly one of 5 popcorn cells goes nuts.

I'm still biding my time for a few hours from now, SW of here.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 12:01 PM

Shan that's kinda where I'm holding

watching w of College Station,

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:01 PM

LOL, I really don't enjoy these type days. It's just reacting. Goes against my instincts. (edited)

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 12:02 PM

Yeah where ever the chaos gods make an offering

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 12:02 PM

12z showed the cap. NWS sent out a message in the chat that it was still in place

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 12:02 PM

praying to Lorenz

smok 10-Jan-20 12:02 PM

Proactive vs. reactive targeting.

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 12:02 PM

I'm hoping there's some special soundings that's been launched that will get posted

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:02 PM

Yup.

I mean, it's a proactive target, but it'll be a reactive response LOL.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 12:03 PM

@Ouguy2017 we are doing one here at some point this afternoon

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:03 PM

In other words, I'm not leaving this seat until a sup is obvious.

1

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 12:05 PM

Days like today, they usually launch several

nloeb 10-Jan-20 12:07 PM

most of these cells are still elevated above the cap. they probably won't become sfc based for a couple hours

benr1001 10-Jan-20 12:19 PM

I'm not expecting much 'til the 18z sounding

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 12:20 PM

waiting, waiting, Bueler, Bueler for TX.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 12:20 PM

For those chasing near the river, crossings are west to east as follows; I-35, US-377, US-69/75, US-271, US-259

4

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 12:21 PM

Drew thank you very much

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:23 PM

That's invaluable information, especially on a day with fast storm speeds.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 12:24 PM

There might be a minor river crossing somewhere in there, but those are the major ones that I know by memory. Off the top of my head, there's about 20 miles separating I-35 and US-377, 20-25 more between 377 and 69/75, then the gap widens significantly to 271 and then 259..

Shane, how's it looking your way? looks like that WAA precip is starting to clear out on radar

Screw it; I'll cross and get to Gainesville, If I need back across the river, I'm close to a crossing, and 82 can get me east in a hurry if need be

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Jan-20 12:31 PM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1215702153702100998

Adam Lucio (@Aerostorms)

DFW Watching special 18z sounding data come in: We're looking at the sounding data coming in live, still a strong cap between 700-800mb (as expected) although it will rapidly erode as dynamic ascent arrives. The cap won't be preventing storm development today.....

benr1001 10-Jan-20 12:33 PM

Dang

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:33 PM

Where's he seeing data coming in live?

benr1001 10-Jan-20 12:33 PM

Might have a rare day where the cap erodes but is still strong enough to suppress weaker UDs

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:33 PM

Oh, he means the NWS

LOL, nm me

benr1001 10-Jan-20 12:40 PM

That's spooky

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 12:49 PM

Here we go. Storm NE of Lawton starting to get strong

benr1001 10-Jan-20 12:55 PM

Is that surface based? Hard to tell

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 12:56 PM

Had 35k tops

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 12:57 PM

Looks like it's right on or just north of the boundary.

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 12:58 PM

Yeah, the boundary is definitely right there

It's getting sucked that way as well. Motion is more NNW

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:00 PM

Oh yep

I'm a little less confident in discrete convection before this band of storms

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:03 PM

Agreed Ben, that plus not wanting to fight flooding and DFW traffic back home after dark.

I made my target based on several factors, some of which were not meterological.

Hopefully I don't get burned in the fashion I always do, by a great supercell east of Dallas

I was toying with the idea of just driving to the Bucee's in Terrell and waiting a few days ago, but then the thought of traversing the entire Metroplex east/west in the dark with traffic and flooding didn't sit well. (edited)

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:06 PM

We'll see, it's still pretty early

The band isn't really moving east either, so the WS is wide open for a while

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 01:10 PM

Man, 18z soundings are posted

somewhat

They're out there, but page has an error

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:22 PM

Hmm clear slot on the Balcones escarpment just to my west on latest HRRR. Staying put might have been the best choice.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:26 PM

Latest HRRR has an isolated sup going up ahead of the main line around 5pm near Terrell LOL.

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 01:28 PM

Thunderstorm warning for storm west of OKC

smok 10-Jan-20 01:29 PM

RS is slow to update on the warning. Looks like a nice cell tho

Jim Martin 10-Jan-20 01:32 PM

new tornado warning east of Tulsa

Cherokee Delaware and Mayes County

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:33 PM

Not needing to be on the road already is making me stir crazy

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:35 PM

I'm just chillin' lol.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 01:37 PM

I'm at the Love's on the north side of Denton now

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:37 PM

This must still be WAA driven, all of it. Due north bordering on NNW movement.

HurricaneHarry 10-Jan-20 01:41 PM

FWD 18z

JasonWX 10-Jan-20 01:41 PM

That’s definitely WAA. We are chilling in Van Alstyne

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:43 PM

Wow 2400 SCAPE?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:44 PM

That would be helpful.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:45 PM

I'm going stir crazy

Just fire already!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:45 PM

LOL.

I just hope my gamble pays off.

Morphtato 10-Jan-20 01:45 PM

3

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 01:45 PM

SUMMARY...Upscale growing and organizing convection will pose

increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and a few embedded

tornadoes through 4-6 PM CST. Potential for more discrete

supercells, which could pose a risk for a strong tornado or two, may

become maximized near Paris TX, and surrounding areas of southeast

Oklahoma/northeast Texas.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:46 PM

Bold of them to name a town

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 01:46 PM

Same Shane. I'm debating with myself what I want to do.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:46 PM

Well, my "gamble" is just me staying home LOL.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:47 PM

Yeah I know where I am staying FAR away from now.

3

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:47 PM

They might as well just say "everyone drive to Paris lol"

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 01:47 PM

I'm just trying to figure out if I want to go ahead and blast east now or wait here on something else. I may go east as it'll be easier to get back west than it would to get east on something that went up that way

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:47 PM

I'd rather miss something to the east and be home than leave home, miss something to the west, then have to drive home in this mess. If I was certain of a particular area I'd go there, but this metro is basically like a small area in BFE on a normal chase that I'd hang out in. Storm pops, drive to it.

The gamble in DFW is of course, if you're in the wrong position at initiation, you may never get to the storm because of traffic. (edited)

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 01:48 PM

OK Paris it is

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:48 PM

And I'm not going to waste gas driving around in circles all day. I've been there done that

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:48 PM

@Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) Let us know how the traffic treats ya

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 01:48 PM

Well I’m sure it’ll be just great

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:49 PM

I'm chilling in Rockwall hoping for something to just drift over that I can follow NE

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:49 PM

Yep, that was my original plan.

But here I can drink my own coffee instead of paying $5/pop at Starbucks LOL.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:50 PM

Ugh. Bucees has better coffee

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 01:50 PM

Pfft, Starbucks? Pilot/Flying J.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:50 PM

That too

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:50 PM

I'm at a friend's, he made me some excellent coffee

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 01:50 PM

$5 is like a gallon of coffee there.

WildishSlambino 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

Pilot/Flying J is my goto

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

If you gave $5 worth of Flying J coffee to a child,

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

This small cell just developed near us, and in three scans it's halfway to Denton. Ugh, these storm speeds.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

they would die.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

Only truck stop coffee I care for is TA, unless you count QT or Speedway

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

I'm excited. Haven't gotten a real tornado in ages

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 01:51 PM

Love's is downright rotten

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

Love's is the coffee I get when I'm driving home and need to stay awake. It's so horrid it keeps me awake because I'm trying not to throw up.

WildishSlambino 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

When you find a pilot with dunkin coffee in it... oh boy

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

There's one of those in Irving Justin

benr1001 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

Storm speeds are wild

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

I love the rewards points there, but the coffee is ugh. And nah, I'm not enamored by Dunkin

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) Ugh. the burned bitterness of Starbucks makes me want to yak way more

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:52 PM

I love DD coffee, because something about an attractive female handing it to me through a drive-thru window makes it taste magical.

1

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 01:53 PM

These

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:53 PM

Ew, I can;t do anything coffee cold. Not even beer.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:53 PM

I married into a New England proletariat family. I had to sign something in blood about DD

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:54 PM

LOL

DUNKIES

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 01:54 PM

Nah, those are pretty good, but my actual road fuel is this.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:55 PM

Highball caffeinated sparkling water if you can find it.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 01:55 PM

I had to give those up. From 2005-2007 I lived on those during chases.

Not that particular brand, just energy drinks in general.

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 01:55 PM

It's like if Gatorade made an energy drink.

Caffeinated sparkling water is delicious.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 01:57 PM

those highball drinks are the bomb

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 01:57 PM

YES

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 02:02 PM

Late on the 20Z

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:05 PM

I wonder if the first real storm is gonna come out of that cluster north of Stephenville.

Darthteej 10-Jan-20 02:06 PM

Why TF we talking about drinks when Warner OK is wedging

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:07 PM

Someone just tweeted a pic of the sun poking through in Plano. Yikes

Darthteej 10-Jan-20 02:07 PM

Vortex hole right in that mothafucka

WildishSlambino 10-Jan-20 02:09 PM

Warner seems to be losing it. (edited)

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:10 PM

WAA is decreasing

Gonna be showtime soon

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 02:10 PM

Sitting in Sherman. Still. This is exciting......

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:11 PM

Sunny here

Or sun poking through, I should say.

4

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:12 PM

Oh shit

A lot more bare ground visible on the satellite than a few minutes ago

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:13 PM

Yep. Eroding fast

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:13 PM

oooowwwweeee

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:13 PM

Almost time

Oh hey good probs on the watch

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:15 PM

HRRR now has a PDS sounding in Bryan

with minimal veering

Sorry, just west of Bryan

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:16 PM

It also lights up over DFW in the next few hours

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:16 PM

Wow. I might go just north of campus and watch.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:17 PM

I try not to HRRRcast but it can be tough

It shows exactly what I want to see

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:17 PM

I hand plot after I see something attractive on HRRR

Krietz 10-Jan-20 02:17 PM

Good luck men!

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:18 PM

Thanks! Got a good feeling

AndrewMacklin (Toronto,ON) 10-Jan-20 02:20 PM

Good luck everyone

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:23 PM

Rolls showing up on satellite between ATX and SATX

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 02:24 PM

Get them Tors!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:27 PM

Starting to focus in on SW of us now. That area has the look like it's trying to organize.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:29 PM

Just biding my time now

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:29 PM

Are you still in Rockwall?

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:30 PM

Yep

Worried now that it might get dark before the real show starts

But hopefully I'll get to see some nice storms anyway

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:31 PM

Great, now I have a tornado-warned storm moving towards family. Double duty now.

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 02:32 PM

You'd get a good light show I'm sure

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:39 PM

I don't expect anything to fire for another hour

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 02:39 PM

Debating if I want to go south from Dallas or stay put. Not confident in Gainesville tornado warning

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:42 PM

Not one I'd chase

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:42 PM

I have to be, it's heading towards my Mom. It never fails, I'm trying to track storms for chasing and then there's ALWAYS a tornado threat aimed at family. So now it's double duty, double stress lol.

Darthteej 10-Jan-20 02:42 PM

Yeah don't go Gainesville

Warm sector ain't ready yet

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:44 PM

Not quite

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:45 PM

That storm near Decatur will go next with the t-warning.

There seems to be a southward trend over time.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 02:46 PM

Agree

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:46 PM

And there you go

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 02:46 PM

Yep lol

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:48 PM

Pretty messy

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:49 PM

Yeah, this is going to suck. The one SW of Weatherford will be next, in about 15 minutes or so.

I'm hoping that tail end stays clear. That will be our target storm.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:50 PM

Almost definitely

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:50 PM

Yup

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:50 PM

I'm holding out east, if nothing happens who cares. Got friends and some whiskey here

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:50 PM

I’m actually wondering about tracking south broadly towards SATX

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:50 PM

Then I can enjoy the QLCS

Warm sector needs about another 30min-hr

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:53 PM

Something at the tail end of that cluster W/SW of FW is gonna go eventually. I'll wait it out

WildishSlambino 10-Jan-20 02:53 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1215738392077467650

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

2:53pm CST #SPC_MD 0016 , #txwx, https://t.co/QcxDBA1YOE

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:54 PM

Chris that may be your spot

Yeah Shane you're all set for now (edited)

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 02:54 PM

time for some windshields to get destroyed

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 02:55 PM

I decided I was going to gamble on the warm sector, and the HRRR wanting to fire something along US-75. I may get burned by this, but wasn't going to wait for the QLCS. I'll catch it coming across 82 if nothing happens out this way anyway.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:55 PM

Good luck man

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:56 PM

I'm with you Drew

That's the chance I'm taking

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 02:56 PM

I'm trying to will this rotation just north of the river east of my Mom, and watching the stuff to our SW.

Sweaty palms here lol.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:56 PM

Fuck it. Headed ssw

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:57 PM

Debating whether to stay here or go back home to Plano and wait there

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 02:57 PM

Caldwell stop 1

benr1001 10-Jan-20 02:57 PM

Not a big deal either way

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 02:58 PM

I just topped off in McKinney. Probably will head north just enough to get out of town and wait there

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 02:58 PM

Home internet connection went down for a bit there. Running off the Sprint Cradlepoint now.

3G at it's finest. I see things have continued to get more interesting.

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) - Palo Pinto/Parker border? LOL.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:00 PM

Think I'll head home just so I can be further north

But it'll also make 75 my only real option

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 10-Jan-20 03:03 PM

I'm currently on US-82 in Bonham, I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the warm sector just yet.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:05 PM

Patience!

From the guy who's never had a successful warm sector chase

WarmSector 10-Jan-20 03:07 PM

Storms near Groesbeck TX

I am heading near Greenville to maybe wait for them to arrive.. I just hope they organize lol

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:16 PM

I think you've got a shot

Plenty of SRH down there

Mesoanalysis doesn't show any cap here but obviously it's still here

All we need is a little shove

Things are starting to fire up by Waxahachie but looks like they'll go linear pretty fast

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 03:28 PM

That cell coming into gatesville?

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:34 PM

Maybe

I've got my eye on the two near waxahachie

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 03:34 PM

Any one of these little poppers south of DFW could be the one.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:35 PM

My thoughts exactly

Should have matured by the time they get near us

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 03:36 PM

As long as one of those little poppers do what they should, I'm in good position

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 03:37 PM

I'm still in Fort Worth. Just tempting fate again lol. Plus I have a new tornado warnig I have to keep my eye on, once again heading towards family.

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 03:38 PM

Yeah I saw that. I can also pick up Denton from here, and the NWS just asked them to keep an eye on it

Might end up with a warning west of Sanger too

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 03:39 PM

I've got one due south, west of that main cluster trying to organize by Wax, that I'm watching.

Man I hate these type setups lol.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:44 PM

Me too but I think it'll work out

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 03:45 PM

So many choices

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:55 PM

Keeping an eye on tail end Charlie near waxahachie

WarmSector 10-Jan-20 03:58 PM

They are not organizing fast enough lol

benr1001 10-Jan-20 03:58 PM

Nope it'll be a bit

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 03:59 PM

One by Hamilton...maybe but I won’t make it

benr1001 10-Jan-20 04:03 PM

Hah it's actually disorganizing

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 04:04 PM

One near Corsicana might do something if it can organize itself. I may meander towards Greenville if it starts getting its act together

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 10-Jan-20 04:07 PM

I'm currently in Greenville now to top off the tank.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 04:08 PM

Guess I’ll head to greenfield too

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 04:09 PM

I'm still just north of McKinney myself

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 04:12 PM

I guess Hamilton cell is slopping up some. Glad I didn’t go

benr1001 10-Jan-20 04:17 PM

Hey, rain!

WarmSector 10-Jan-20 04:19 PM

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 10-Jan-20 04:21 PM

At Whataburger currently grabbing dinner then we're heading south. Neither of us have to work tomorrow so fuck it. (edited)

3

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 04:22 PM

Yep, we're gonna go get dinner instead of a late lunch. It feels later than it is.

WarmSector 10-Jan-20 04:24 PM

Omg!!! Finally!

GrayGhost 10-Jan-20 04:24 PM

I'm debating how long I want to stay out. I haven't been home yet since getting off the road

WarmSector 10-Jan-20 04:24 PM

Tornado warn! Corsicana

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 10-Jan-20 04:27 PM

Yee haw

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 04:47 PM

Oh Damn

Burning off in Caldwelll

benr1001 10-Jan-20 04:55 PM

Great!

I think it's too late here, oh well

I'll enjoy the show later

WildishSlambino 10-Jan-20 04:56 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1215769347651563520

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

4:56pm CST #SPC_MD 0018 , #arwx #mowx #lawx #txwx #okwx, https://t.co/DXC8q4e4PY

benr1001 10-Jan-20 04:59 PM

Huh maybe not

then

Freshgeek 10-Jan-20 05:00 PM

lol calling this a bust before storms had even touched the main threat areas

4

AverageBreh 10-Jan-20 05:01 PM

Yeah, this was all just pre-show.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Jan-20 05:01 PM

managing to actually see a daytime january tornado yeah probably bust but for the event in general cant call that right now lol

benr1001 10-Jan-20 05:11 PM

That's more what I meant

Ouguy2017 10-Jan-20 05:13 PM

Yeah, not sure how this would be a bust. This is exactly how it was expected to play out so far. Line of storms forms around 3pm in OK, pushes east. Storms that form out in front become the main tornadic producing storms. Meanwhile, 80mph winds could happen as the line continues to mature

Jim Martin 10-Jan-20 05:18 PM

Tornado Warning Burnet County TX

KFC Chicken 10-Jan-20 05:18 PM

Models have done pretty well so far

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 05:22 PM

Heading north out of giddings

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 10-Jan-20 05:30 PM

5

For me anyway.

WildishSlambino 10-Jan-20 05:37 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1215778871699632128

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

5:34pm CST #SPC_Watch WW 5 TORNADO AR LA MO OK TX 102330Z - 110800Z, #arwx #lawx #mowx #okwx #txwx, https://t.co/h5bkUDlJ26

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 10-Jan-20 05:41 PM

The first band of storms in eastern Oklahoma was a mess

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 05:42 PM

We're gonna make it through this whole deal without being boxed for anything. Hell the line looks it might even split before it gets to us.

benr1001 10-Jan-20 05:42 PM

Check out that bow near Burleson!

Jim Martin 10-Jan-20 05:43 PM

Tornado Warning Fort Worth

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 05:44 PM

That will miss Fort Worth entirely

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 05:45 PM

Boy that looks really good

CC drops on it as well

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 05:45 PM

Comfort TX

benr1001 10-Jan-20 05:46 PM

That's the one!

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 10-Jan-20 05:46 PM

Heading right for the radar too

benr1001 10-Jan-20 05:46 PM

What a beast

Niels van K [NL] 10-Jan-20 05:47 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1215782176043569153

NWS Fort Worth (@NWSFortWorth)

5:46pm - We have a report of a funnel cloud with this storm now. Even if the storm doesn't produce a tornado, it could produce strong damaging straight-line winds. https://t.co/Yjuqnta90Z

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 05:47 PM

Wow in ft wth

Jim Martin 10-Jan-20 05:49 PM

possible tornado on radar too just east of Springfield MO

TORR

Johnson and Tarrant

benr1001 10-Jan-20 05:53 PM

Can't wait for this to get closer

That one might just keep going as it gets into better shear

Niels van K [NL] 10-Jan-20 05:57 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSpringfield/status/1215784458726457344

NWS Springfield (@NWSSpringfield)

Report of tornado on the ground at Highway OO and 125, north of Strafford. Take cover now! #mowx

benr1001 10-Jan-20 05:58 PM

Environment ahead has 250-300 m/s^2 1km SRH

Pulled near Collin County

benr1001 10-Jan-20 06:15 PM

Sirens going off!

How I've missed that sound

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 06:17 PM

Waited all day for something and now that I'm just trying to get on with my evening it just won't stop.

At least we didn't get completely missed.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 06:27 PM

I think this third of the state is in for a rough night

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-Jan-20 06:28 PM

Yeah I don't even think the main show has started.

The pre-show was absolute garbage, but that's why I never left the apartment.

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 06:30 PM

Houston is home so right now I’m sitting at the whoop stop watching kinks in the main line

Staying East and ahead

I am*

benr1001 10-Jan-20 06:34 PM

I'm driving towards farmers branch

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 06:40 PM

Tower going up in Buda. In front of the MCS

Time to inch towards home

benr1001 10-Jan-20 06:41 PM

Warning got canceled but I'm still watching that kink

May be another circulation forming

HurricaneHarry 10-Jan-20 06:46 PM

Fun watching various boundaries out ahead of the main line over CenTex on nighttime microphysics imagery

1

benr1001 10-Jan-20 06:47 PM

Ah I was right

Now warned

Jim Martin 10-Jan-20 06:51 PM

getting a few cells popping in northeast Louisiana

benr1001 10-Jan-20 07:00 PM

I saw a BIG power flash

Morphtato 10-Jan-20 08:53 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/445308649808855048/665386812323266563/EN99G_OU8AE4KCt.png

Morphtato 10-Jan-20 09:08 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1215832751493894144

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Texas until 4 AM CST

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 10:23 PM

benr1001 10-Jan-20 10:24 PM

Wow!

Looks like the mesonet site has been recording ~22kt winds

Chris Maupin 10-Jan-20 10:58 PM

Oh no not my Waller bucees!

7

Steve Copertino (New York, NY) 11-Jan-20 04:31 PM

Oof.