Stormtrack - 02-04-2020_tx_ar_la

Morphtato 31-Jan-20 01:25 PM

Krietz 31-Jan-20 05:13 PM

Linear

michael beard (fort worth) 31-Jan-20 10:18 PM

No

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 01-Feb-20 07:29 AM

Chris Maupin 01-Feb-20 08:34 AM

Lemme see these models... hold on

Chris Maupin 01-Feb-20 09:06 AM

This will be an interesting one. Sure, the easy answer is linear, but right now the hodographs show they could become more favorable over a broad swath with a minor southerly shift in low level winds. Also, timing of some much steeper lapse rates and strength of the cap during Tues heating... So I think the day-of dynamic environment will play biggest role with this moisture return. Watching what happens overnight Feb 3-4 will be critical.

Krietz 01-Feb-20 10:44 AM

Bread shut up @michael beard (fort worth)

Chris Maupin 01-Feb-20 04:49 PM

I see that the rocket child has decided to hype it on social media

GrayGhost 02-Feb-20 02:24 AM

Day 3 is out now.

Chris Maupin 02-Feb-20 12:04 PM

time to start some hand analysis

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Feb-20 09:46 AM

Forecast soundings ahead of the front in the late afternoon show 0-6 km shear of 55 to 65 kt which would be sufficient for a severe threat. Damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger parts of the line. However, the threat will be conditional upon how much instability develops. Confidence in this scenario has decreased. For this reason, have reduced the slight-risk size and placed the highest probabilities where the models agree that the strongest combination of destabilization and deep-layer shear will occur...Broyles.. 02/03/2020

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Getting smaller area now