Some global consensus shows some potential for some coastal
convection, but there remains a good feed of low-level Theta E
across central to southwest Mississippi & northeast Louisiana to
serve as an impetus for severe weather development along the
Mississippi River around noon & to spread east-northeast through
the afternoon to evening. Some hi-res guidance indicates even more
concerning juxtaposition of parameters, with some experimental
HRRR runs showing significant tornado parameter (STP) approaching
6+, bullseye over southwest Mississippi & northeast Louisiana &
central portions of ArkLaMiss on the northern gradient & strong
updraft helicity swaths. This environment will be very anomalously
destabilized (i.e. 1000-1500+ MLCAPE) & sheared. Strong clockwise
curving hodographs will lead to supercell & tornado potential,
with some increasing potential for even more significant severe
weather & upgrade in future outlooks possible. For now, in
conjunction with SPC, expanded the "Slight" risk area for severe
weather further northwest across the Delta, with "Marginal" risk
area across the far northwest Delta. All modes of severe weather
are possible, including damaging winds of 60-70mph, large hail of
quarter to golf ball size & tornadoes. Keep a close eye on future
outlooks for any increase in severe weather potential & upgrades
in the HWO/graphics.
Interesting AFD from NWS Jackson, MS
(edited)