THERE IS   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF WIND DAMAGE BASED   ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. THE EC HAS SHOWN   THE GREATEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE   BUT A GENERAL REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE.   THE INSTABILITY CONCERNS/UNCERTAINTY SUGGEST A LOWERING OF SEVERE   PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS MAY BE WARRANTED.

The cold front is expected to enter northwest Georgia on Wednesday night, with PoPs quickly increasing to categorical in the area ahead of the front during the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday morning. A low instability/high shear environment is anticipated as this front enters the area. With CAPE values of 400-600 J/kg, low- level shear of 30-40 kts, and deep layer shear of 70-80 kts, a QLCS line is expected to be the main convective mode associated with this system. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard associated with this line as it enters the area, and brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out. With precipitable water values remaining high, locally heavy rainfall will also be likely.

The air mass ahead of the front and low will initially be cool/stable, but gradual destabilization will occur by late afternoon and evening. In addition, midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing instability. That said, shear profiles will be strong, and conditionally favorable for a supercell and/or QLCS.