Stormtrack - 03-18-20_ok

AverageBreh 17-Mar-20 12:01 PM

ChasingTheMeso.com 17-Mar-20 12:05 PM

Only took forever for this channel to be made.

Smh lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 17-Mar-20 12:10 PM

Oh Mike so thoughtful.

Now what mode is this going to be in?

AverageBreh 17-Mar-20 01:24 PM

Hey, I was dealing with pandemic stuff. But, it still got made, eventually.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 17-Mar-20 07:28 PM

Only good thing about this Covid-19 is that I'm out of school and coaching until at least April 6th, which will give me opportunity to chase more than a few weeks in May.

I plan on getting out to chase this tomorrow.

ChasingTheMeso.com 17-Mar-20 11:13 PM

Tomorrow looks boring. Everything looks to go up after dark. #unpopularopinion https://media.tenor.com/images/a24555107a10ab461201475e6ca61e51/tenor.gif

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 17-Mar-20 11:58 PM

I agree about the timing but it will be good to actually get out of the house. Even for a nighttime chase.

RTC 18-Mar-20 01:07 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1240156531930382336?s=20

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

1:00am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: for parts of central and western north-central tx into southwest and central oklahoma https://t.co/GtEvHPMjG6

RTC 18-Mar-20 01:18 AM

Brad Arnold (Huntsville, AL) 18-Mar-20 03:04 AM

GrayGhost 18-Mar-20 09:46 AM

Where's that sounding from?

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 09:52 AM

Looks like near Stephenville, TX

CanadianStormChaser 18-Mar-20 09:56 AM

30% wind now

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 18-Mar-20 10:13 AM

I'll go 10% tor near triple point. Punt models. Track the point on surface chart and vis satellite. My triple point is boundary along US-287, not any synoptic WF farther north.

CAMs can't agree on placement but most have sups there. Track point manually

Concentus 18-Mar-20 10:28 AM

please, please no major wind, don't need internet to go down, clients at work are already calling enough

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 18-Mar-20 10:31 AM

Agree. Lots of Fiber shares poles with electricity Transmission and Distribution systems.

Concentus 18-Mar-20 10:48 AM

Yeah, I've already got my hands full right now 80+ clients worth of users transitioning to work from home.

1

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 11:27 AM

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1240306588084305920 Some really strong model agreement on supercell potential W of DFW this evening

John Homenuk (@jhomenuk)

Latest HREF also suggests multi-model support for discrete supercells in the vicinity of I-20 near (and eventually east of) Abilene. Complicated mesoscale evolution with outflow boundaries hanging around, but think a locally higher tornado potential exists in this area. #txwx...

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 11:38 AM

10% hatched!

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:40 AM

Thank you mesocale with your outflow boundaries ❤️ (edited)

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:41 AM

Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan

There's one cell that looks so fricken nice on the HRRR

Extremely long tracked to

However, I'm not chasing today because I just don't feel like it. lol

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 11:42 AM

I'm leaving OKC now heading toward WF and points south

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:42 AM

Go get some! (edited)

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:45 AM

If I hadn't chased yesterday, I'd be chasing today. But I just want to relax today, so good luck to anyone chasing. If this was May I'd for sure be chasing. The cell to the NW of Dallas looks very nice. Looks to stay active into the night hours when it will then cross into SE OK. With dewpoints in the high 60's and practically no clouds, it won't take much for the earth to heat from the suns radiation. Could be one hell of a day.

3

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:47 AM

Deep-layer shear is already favorable, once that LLJ kicks in as well in that warm sector that's what will get these producing

Also don't forget the carry-over hail risk too, these things can drop some big hail too while they're at it

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 11:47 AM

Hope it stays isolated long enough and doesn't line out before that

RTC 18-Mar-20 11:48 AM

Watch the HRRR just be trolling us and it's really a linear mess today

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:48 AM

That's what I was thinking to Todd, if it stays isolated such as what the models are predicting then you're in for a treat.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:48 AM

Quirky combo as well with the retreating dryline to the west and down south so those will also be severe

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:49 AM

I'm starting to have 2nd thoughts. lmao

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 11:49 AM

Yeah, I am amazed not only how well HRRR has been holding that cell over multiple runs, but other CAMs basically agree with HRRR pretty well lol

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:49 AM

A lot of places it seems where you can get the severe weather today, but that warm sector as long as it remains relatively untapped, combined with those mesocale parameters in favor of it and what the CAM'S are saying really would put some red flags on for me (edited)

I've had relationship problems with the HRRR but with CAM'S agreeing I may give it one more chance

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:50 AM

It's been very consistent since the 10z model run so that gives some confidence as well.

Love seeing consistency on weather models..

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:51 AM

You're telling me that doesn't always happen?

(This is a joke)

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:51 AM

Sadly.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:52 AM

2% in Tuscon, got an older brother who lives there, wonder how he feels about that lol

Wish he followed through with his met degree, but I mean I'm sure he knows enough if something pops up he'll go out for it hopefully

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:52 AM

Tuscon, Arizona?

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:53 AM

Mhmm

Oh yeah, did they just add that 2% tor and marginal to AZ?

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 11:54 AM

Lol, oh wow, didn't see that 2% down there till now

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:54 AM

I wouldn't be to worried, looks like a mess and dews are only peaking into 54 degrees in one area, besides that dews are mainly in the 40s well below what is needed for severe weather. I've seen stranger things, but highly doubt anything will happen.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:57 AM

Haven't looked at all, but anything is better than nothing for him, I wonder if he's been bored over there

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:57 AM

I mean, it is Arizona. lol

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 11:59 AM

I wouldn't want to live there anyway, I'm hoping once I get my bachelor's in Atmospheric Science since I'm planning to stay locally to move out somewhere else and go for a masters at a better university, just hoping about 5 years or so down the road that they're job openings out in the mid-west because I would prefer to be there near the uni of Oklahoma etc

sheislisamarie 18-Mar-20 01:06 PM

I think I'm going for this one. May be the last one I can swing for a while, so I'm likely heading out in an hour fo west of Dallas

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:08 PM

@sheislisamarie good luck to ya. Looks like a good Chase day.

sheislisamarie 18-Mar-20 01:08 PM

I didn't think I was going for it so I'm pretty unprepared, but I can throw some things together and hit the road. Hope it works out!

3

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:24 PM

Good luck. Keep an eye on those weather models.

As for me, since I'm not chasing today because of my right leg I might try to stay up and wait for storms to come over Norman and try to get some lightning. I haven't really gotten much good lightning bolts since 2018 and it's annoying because I love lightning.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 18-Mar-20 01:30 PM

Get Some Mike and Lisa! Envy you guys.

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:31 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) move out to Oklahoma and you won't have to envy.

Chris Maupin 18-Mar-20 01:34 PM

If you are thinking about getting on the highways for recreational storm chasing, just don't. It's an unethical risk to take given how slammed the health care system is about to be, overwhelmed by eight-fold capacity. Unless you want to be stuck convalescing from a motor vehicle accident when you catch COVID-19.

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:42 PM

Better tell Tim Marshall and everyone else who is chasing today that.

(edited)

Chris Maupin 18-Mar-20 01:44 PM

I'm happy to tell it to the face of any recreational storm chaser.

monsoonman1 18-Mar-20 01:45 PM

what is a "recreational storm chaser"

benr1001 18-Mar-20 01:46 PM

Everyone here lol

3

Morphtato 18-Mar-20 01:47 PM

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:48 PM

Well, if the 17z run stays true, Cleveland county could get a few rotating cells late at night tonight. Only way I'm going to chase at night is if it's in my county because I hate night chasing. kind of hoping for this to happen because that means lightning will be associated with it and I can get a few lightning strikes hopefully.

Dews will be in the 60s with some marginal cape. Doubt it stays consistent

Chris Maupin 18-Mar-20 01:53 PM

Most dictionaries have the definition of recreation in them

monsoonman1 18-Mar-20 01:54 PM

is someone going out and sending reports to the NWS a "recreational storm chaser"

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:54 PM

You don't have to say recreational storm chasing man. Because storm-chasing is a hobby. Only 1% actually make money off of it. Hell I've only made $50 off of storm chasing.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 01:55 PM

How am i, driving in my car alone, at any more risk of spreading Covid-19 than if I was driving around okc?

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:56 PM

^ especially if you're like me and don't like being around other people

#Introvert

benr1001 18-Mar-20 01:56 PM

That's not what he's saying

He means don't risk a vehicle accident because you'll be taking a hospital bed away from somebody who may need it more

And in the process putting yourself at risk of infection

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:58 PM

anytime you drive and get into an accident serious enough to go to the hospital you're taking a bed from somebody else who might need it.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 01:59 PM

I see that. But I still have to drive at home too. My risk of getting in a wreck are higher in OKC rush hour than in Cisco tx

Chris Maupin 18-Mar-20 01:59 PM

Ben gets it. I’ll let that hot take simmer.

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 01:59 PM

Lol. I don't think anybody is upset here.

After all this is a weather forecasting discussion Channel just saying

Chris Maupin 18-Mar-20 01:59 PM

Oh I don’t think there is anyone mad. I hope not.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 02:00 PM

I'm not upset at all.

Chris Maupin 18-Mar-20 02:00 PM

But I know why I’m not already on the road today

benr1001 18-Mar-20 02:01 PM

It's easier to do for me because we already have big plans for May haha

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 02:10 PM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1240352487409954819

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

LIVE severe weather update from ROSCOE, TEXAS with intense solar heating and temperatures rising through the 70s along outflow boundary. Strong tornado threat could develop across parts of Northwest to north-central TX. Stay tuned to the @RadarOmega_WX app for updates, warni...

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 02:11 PM

Like I stated earlier. It won't take much for heating to occur because of the clear skies and the dew points and everything else (edited)

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 02:11 PM

The warmsector looks spicy, especially with this outflow boundary mixing itself up in the equation

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 02:12 PM

He's got something going on there with his shirt

Here's me regretting not chasing now

https://media.tenor.com/images/3ebe74f1bf1ee5932da0845500c08378/tenor.gif

Damn leg

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 02:41 PM

Man, I am really liking how consistent HRRR has been with the track of this supercell on the last few runs

5

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 02:58 PM

Yeah, it's been pretty consistent since 10z. That alone would raise my confidence. Looks like a great chase day!

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 03:04 PM

I'm debating going to around Breckenridge/Cisco area and wait and adjust from there.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 03:35 PM

Quick update this afternoon: Things are starting to get bubbly with storm development possible by 5 PM. Most likely area for first storms will be between San Angelo & Abilene, Very large hail (bigger than golf balls), damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible #sjtwx #txwx

From NWS San Angelo

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 03:38 PM

7 hours later and that one long track cell is still showing up. Talk about consistency. The Seymour Mesonet is currently sitting at 78/65. More than enough to support severe weather development today. Clear skies in NW Texas right now. The atmosphere is having an easy day with heating. Wouldn't be surprised to see this cell go up and actually do as the models suggest, either way I'd keep an eye on it for sure. If I was chasing today I'd probably setup somewhere near outside of Abilene on US 351.

I wouldn't be surprised if a tornado forms today.

Good luck @Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) Bring home a tor.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 03:44 PM

Gonna do my best! @ChasingTheMeso.com

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:23 PM

Blackwell cell looks good and has the look to it on radar, looks like it may become a sup (edited)

Ballinger popped up just to the south

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:26 PM

Waaayyy to earlier for either of those cells to be called a supercell.

For a storm to be called a supercell it has to have a rotating updraft.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 04:28 PM

Almost to Breckenridge. Going to continue S to Cisco

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:29 PM

Pileus cap on Blackwell

These are definitely far from sups, but with the environment and how favorable it's going to get It's not going to be very surprising to see them eventually mature, especially as the LLJ comes into the pic later this evening

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:31 PM

Man, I'd love to be down there getting to see a beautiful cell go up with flat land. Great timelapse material.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:34 PM

No trees like dixie alley, sucks It's pretty much like a Jungle here, I never can get really good views like that

*Accidental typo above, meant may *become not *may be, that causes confusion

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:36 PM

I like how SPC still feels the need to post this even though they said that there is a 5% chance of a watch being issued. Not hating on them though, love the Storm Prediction Center. ❤️

Yeah, I grew up in Wisconsin, and unless you live in Southern Wisconsin you're not going to see anything when severe weather comes

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:37 PM

I think it's just a precautionary measure to reinstate there is a marginal threat, low threat regardless but a non-zero/low risk is there

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:37 PM

Yeah, most likely the reason lol. Just never seen them put out an MD for a 5% chance of issuance.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:38 PM

Either way you go, they sometimes are damned because somebody will complain if something happens in that low risk and they didn't make a MCD, or there was a high risk of something happening and nothing did

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:40 PM

Surprised nobody has jumped on that Southern cell yet.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 04:42 PM

Headed that direction. In Breckenridge now and heading S toward Cisco.

Morphtato 18-Mar-20 04:43 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1240393152537690115

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Texas until 12 AM CDT

3

70/40 TOR

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:45 PM

Tennis ball size hail, sounds like a great time to me!!!!!!!!!!

Tristan White (North AL) 18-Mar-20 04:45 PM

70/40

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:46 PM

Tennis ball sized hail with your car, hope you have Insurance

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:47 PM

I mean, I've been hit by it before. lol

And in that case you wouldn't use insurance.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 18-Mar-20 04:48 PM

My car sucks so oh well

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:48 PM

Unless you want them to drop you, cause most likely they know you chase lol

Tristan White (North AL) 18-Mar-20 04:51 PM

Currently north this maturing cell south of Abilene TX

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:52 PM

TAKE A TIMELAPSE!

You won't regret it. Watching a Thunderstorm go up is absolutely beautiful

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:53 PM

That already looks good, Man I'm glad It's spring

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 04:53 PM

I am to. lol.

The nice thing is that the environment isn't completely saturated yet and there aren't other storms in the area so you can probably see this storm from far away.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 04:56 PM

these are some pretty hot LLLR

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 05:07 PM

Still not sure why nobody besides Marshall has jumped on this cell. Lol. Would've been on it almost immediately seeing how fast it exploded. (edited)

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 05:19 PM

Looks like some more people are coming lol

2

453Braxton 18-Mar-20 05:39 PM

SUMMARY...Discrete supercell development being monitored. Large to very large hail is the initial risk. Tornado potential will likely increase during the 23-01z (7pm-9pm CDT) period. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the initial development stages of supercells beginning to form near the I-20 corridor near Abilene. Surface analysis indicates temperatures are in the upper 70s F with dewpoints in the mid 60s. RAP forecast soundings show around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector downstream of the developing storms. The RAP hodographs show veering and strengthening flow with height with little weakness. The low-level portion of the hodographs are forecast to enlarge further during the next 1-3 hours (0-1km SRH increasing from 100 to 250 m2/s2) which will likely translate to low-level mesocyclone intensification and a subsequent increase in tornado potential during this timeframe.

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 05:41 PM

https://tenor.com/view/yes-sweet-hellyes-pumpit-gif-3532253

sweet

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 06:14 PM

@Tristan White (North AL) Catch me a 'nader

1

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 18-Mar-20 06:52 PM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0196.html

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 08:15 PM

Norman 18-Mar-20 08:35 PM

This storm is taking in some big time inflow; and it’s continuing to head in a untapped, potent environment, wouldn’t be surprised if it props a tornado warning within the next 20-50 minutes as it continues to cycle and restrengthen (edited)

benr1001 18-Mar-20 08:37 PM

Nice hook

Norman 18-Mar-20 08:50 PM

Hmmmmmmm Now what did I just say

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 18-Mar-20 09:26 PM

benr1001 18-Mar-20 09:29 PM

Check out the CC

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 18-Mar-20 09:29 PM

Yeah Chico is in trouble.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 09:33 PM

https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1240465780459872256

Aaron Jayjack (@aaronjayjack)

LARGE TOrNADo headed CHIcO TEXAS #txwx @MyRadarWX https://t.co/yo45oIdNip

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 09:43 PM

Michael Beard getting the goods right now

John getting hit by big hail

Like You can hear the giant thds

*thuds

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 18-Mar-20 10:51 PM

https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1240485563775533056

Aaron Jayjack (@aaronjayjack)

Screen grab from 4K video of the LARGE tornado that passed just south of Chico, Texas. I had to back it out there; very loud. close call. #tornado #txwx @MyRadarWX

and this is what you get with a LLJ

ChasingTheMeso.com 18-Mar-20 11:38 PM

If I hadn't chased yesterday, I'd be chasing today. But I just want to relax today, so good luck to anyone chasing. If this was May I'd for sure be chasing. The cell to the NW of Dallas looks very nice. Looks to stay active into the night hours when it will then cross into SE OK. With dewpoints in the high 60's and practically no clouds, it won't take much for the earth to heat from the suns radiation. Could be one hell of a day.

@ChasingTheMeso.com

Man I never have a bad forecast ^^

That's only because I can forecast severe weather, have me forecast a winter event and you're screwed buddy. lmao

453Braxton 19-Mar-20 12:00 AM

Yeah, forecasting severe weather is easier than forecasting winter weather for sure lol

ChasingTheMeso.com 19-Mar-20 12:03 AM

Damn right, why I don't even attempt it lmao.

Plus it's more fun to forecast severe weather.

Let's be honest.

RTC 19-Mar-20 12:09 AM