Stormtrack - 05-04-20_ks_mo_ar

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-May-20 02:34 PM

So it begins. Yes we see that Cap.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 01-May-20 03:37 PM

crickets (edited)

Tristan White (North AL) 01-May-20 04:24 PM

Parameters look great but the cap will most likely hold. I could be wrong but I think I might head out there and see what happens

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 01-May-20 05:17 PM

May 4th: May the cap be with you

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 01-May-20 05:27 PM

My face looking at models for the first half of may

8

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-May-20 06:18 PM

If I lived in that area I'd go out. Not far from Home and just find a park nearby. Bring some food. Make it a picnic and trail walk. So if it's BSB, the trip I made was worth it.

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 01-May-20 06:44 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) I'm pretty sure the BSB here doesn't mean Backstreet Boys, so can you clue me into your acronym usage here? Unless it is Backstreet Boys, and then in that case

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-May-20 06:55 PM

Blue Sky Bust. That’s not the first time I’ve been asked about that and Backstreet Boys. Hmmm.

6

7

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 01-May-20 07:28 PM

Perhaps a Backstreet Boys emoji is due for this Discord.

Thanks for the clarification!

4

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-May-20 07:42 PM

lol

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 01-May-20 08:37 PM

We do already have

at least

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 01-May-20 10:31 PM

I'm just curious about this dryline bulge that NAM is showing

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 02-May-20 01:16 AM

Buldge that’s a nose

lol...

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 02-May-20 10:00 AM

I’m heading down monday regardless. Really need some time away from work and the crappy weather

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 02-May-20 12:25 PM

Good news for everyone. I work part of the day, and can’t travel more than an hour from ICT. You’re welcome for the tubes that tend to happen when I work.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 12:32 PM

Hard pass on this chase setup. I'll wait for a good setup in Western Oklahoma/TX PNH/Western Kansas.

7

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 02-May-20 09:43 PM

Wonder if it’s worth chasing

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 09:59 PM

Nope

Wait for a better setup.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 02-May-20 09:59 PM

fair

but ya can’t do that always

or else you’ll just never chase

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 10:01 PM

I'd rather chase a Marginal/Slight risk in Western Kansas/Western Oklahoma/Texas PNH than chase a slight risk in the trees with crappy cell service. Just my opinion.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-May-20 10:06 PM

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 10:08 PM

Trees.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 02-May-20 10:08 PM

I agree. I just am antsy to leave the house and chase and i’m only 2-3 hours away

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-May-20 10:09 PM

Still watching that dryline bulge models are showing

Calvin Thomas (De Soto, MO) 02-May-20 10:09 PM

Yeah I'll take some elevated lightning.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 10:10 PM

@Jacob Punch (Kansas City) I understand you being antsy!! I used to get that way as when I was younger, however, it's not worth it! YOu'll get awesome storms on flat lines later this month!

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-May-20 10:10 PM

NAM doesn't 100% uncap this, however it is the weakest capped you got

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 10:10 PM

It'll be worth the wait, trust me!

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 02-May-20 10:11 PM

Oh I agree @Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) I’ll have numerous times to chase this season. I’ve axtually gone on more legit storm chases than pretty much anyone i’ve ever known or met online at my age. I went to Iowa to chase when I was 12 too and saw a really nice meso

but yea. Better days will inevitably come

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 10:11 PM

Awesome stuff my man, if you don't mind me asking, how old are you?

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 02-May-20 10:35 PM

18 @Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) I’ll just DM you befause I don’t get notifications as well from public chats if that’s cool!

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 02-May-20 10:35 PM

Sounds good man.

Jonathan Jarvis(Springfield, MO) 03-May-20 12:58 PM

Thinking Monday is going to be a good day to couch chase! Being in Springfield is going to be nice.

Joshua Yurkiewicz (Bastrop, TX) 03-May-20 02:46 PM

I am more than likely heading out for the cap bust tomorrow lol... May looks like crap after this.. I don’t think I can wait another 2-3 weeks for better setups..

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 03-May-20 03:13 PM

The good news is, you don't have a choice.

3

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 03-May-20 03:28 PM

I'm stuck at work again, so the cap will break.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 03-May-20 03:57 PM

I’m leaving this evening. Targeting SE KS myself

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 03-May-20 04:10 PM

I'll wait a few weeks

Got a sweet F-14A model kit to hold me over at least that long, probably even longer

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 03-May-20 04:48 PM

I'll survive a wait.

Better to wait and chase a good setup with good visibility, than chase in a forest.

Probably just the experience in me talking, but setups like tomorrow just do not interest me anymore.

Only way I even go out tomorrow is if the HRRR stays consistent with storm initation near Shawnee as that's only a 40 minute drive and somewhat good terrain, but no way am I driving Northeast to chase tomorrow. I'm not that desperate.

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 03-May-20 06:07 PM

I'm still sitting here in MN waiting for real May setups to start

Will I even get a southern plains season this year?

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 03-May-20 06:38 PM

im sure koco isgonna want us in shawnee tmrw lol

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-May-20 06:38 PM

June, lockitin

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-May-20 07:29 PM

Take a look at that analog at the very bottom (edited)

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 03-May-20 07:29 PM

lock it in

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-May-20 07:30 PM

Cap seems to be weaker these last few runs

HRRR was lighting MO up too

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 03-May-20 08:32 PM

Where was that sounding at?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-May-20 08:36 PM

@Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK)

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 03-May-20 08:37 PM

Hmm.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-May-20 08:57 PM

Okay HRRRV4

8

Andy Binghamton (Bangor, ME) 03-May-20 09:17 PM

anyone chasing

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 03-May-20 09:18 PM

I'm on yellow alert but I doubt it.

Tristan White (North AL) 03-May-20 09:24 PM

My target area is gonna be the Miami OK area

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 03-May-20 09:31 PM

Maybe. I have a viewing tomorrow at 2. May get out thereafter if it is close enough.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 03-May-20 09:49 PM

I'd only chase tomorrow if the storms near Shawnee stay consistent. Have no desire to go Northeast of that area. Lower end risk day so chasing the storms that the HRRR is predicting near Shawnee means that I only have to drive 40 minutes. Still not heavily interested in tomorrow however. Just doesn't look that amazing imo. If you want hail, then yes, tomorrow is a great day for you.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 03-May-20 09:50 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if the storm of the day ends up in SW/SC OK

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 03-May-20 09:51 PM

I mean, instability is bonkers for what the HRRR is predicting right now. Dew points are there, but the shear just looks abysmal. (edited)

I do think that there will be a small window of oppurtunity for tornadoes, but it just doesn't look amazing at all.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-May-20 09:59 PM

I've been seeing plenty of soundings with 25-30kt of 0-1km shear

Brandon Osterhout (Yukon, OK) 03-May-20 10:36 PM

Targeting SE Kansas initially! Tomorrow’s set up doesn’t blow me away by any stretch of the imagination, but I’ll chase every opportunity I get before my work schedule normalizes again!

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 04-May-20 01:02 AM

I actually really like the setup now

I’m probably going to chase SE KS and try to get a supercell on the triple point

Jonathan Jarvis(Springfield, MO) 04-May-20 10:58 AM

Setup looks decent. I'll be a bit farther south in NE OK

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-May-20 11:20 AM

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-May-20 11:30 AM

10% SIG TOR, anyone?

Jonathan Jarvis(Springfield, MO) 04-May-20 11:36 AM

In Joplin right now, anyone looking at the cell near Lamar/Sheldon MO?

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 04-May-20 11:40 AM

You mean the one an hour from me with a tor warning? Yep. Not happy. Lol

Looks to be getting sloppy

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-May-20 11:51 AM

5 sig

4

Jonathan Jarvis(Springfield, MO) 04-May-20 12:05 PM

Definitely sloppy. They warned it almost right after I sent that

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 04-May-20 12:19 PM

I love that pivotal weather outlook map.

5

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 04-May-20 12:27 PM

It’s really nice and zoomed to see the counties as well

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-May-20 02:36 PM

https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/1257392924444307458

SevereStudios (@severestudios)

Tornado Watch issued for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas until 10 PM CT.

JoshuaClark 04-May-20 04:55 PM

Two cells, going up quick Norman area. They are going up rotating.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-May-20 04:59 PM

this looks surprisingly like a certain model run last night

HMMMM

just a bit early and to the southwest, but pretty good on the HRRRV4

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-May-20 06:30 PM

Tristan White (North AL) 04-May-20 08:10 PM

well today was a frustrating chase day

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 04-May-20 08:11 PM

Why's that.

Tristan White (North AL) 04-May-20 08:20 PM

just when I say that new storm northwest of Talequah OK. Heading to it now

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 04-May-20 08:40 PM

from someone who knows more than me, what went wrong today? I assume that the warm sector north was hurt by the connection going on all morning and early afternoon, and the capping issues still existed down into Oklahoma

but I could be completely wrong

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 04-May-20 08:42 PM

Just seemed like a classic case of a crashing CF winning out over insane WS parameters.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 04-May-20 08:44 PM

That would make sense too. I figured that would be the case too early yesterday evening, but don’t ever count the HRRR out to give you a tease

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 04-May-20 08:49 PM

Indeed lol

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 04-May-20 10:22 PM

Wonder if the storm S of the red river will wander down this far

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 04-May-20 11:12 PM

Shane nailed it. When the only forcing that's enough to break a cap comes from a CF, this is what happens. Textbook crashing cold front.

4

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 05-May-20 11:08 AM

honestly was surprised how aggressive spc went with the tornado threat yesterday given the cold front gave no f***s and kept chugging along