Stormtrack - 05-30-2020_wa_or

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 10:27 AM

Here we are! This would be an interesting event

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 10:27 AM

First ever Enhanced issued for this area

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 10:28 AM

Bit unique and historic for the area

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 10:28 AM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1266738980189433856?s=21

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

After some investigation, I think today is the 1st Enhanced Risk convective outlook ever issued for Washington or Oregon by @NWSSPC! #WAwx #ORwx Found via this very helpful IEM tool: https://t.co/f4RDCGoDnr https://t.co/KTOq1dM8sJ

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 10:40 AM

First ever Enhanced issued for this area

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) do you have any actual data to back that up or is that something that you're saying cuz you've never seen it before?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 10:41 AM

@Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) Look 2 posts above you

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 10:42 AM

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) my apologies, I just woke up like 5 minutes ago. Lol.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 10:42 AM

You good, no worries!

There was a enhanced level risk in 2006 with 30% hail/wind, however it wasn't labelled as enhanced then

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 10:43 AM

Oh how I remember those days.

The Storm Prediction Center didn't shade in the risk areas back then.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 10:50 AM

METAR data in Washington. 70s with 60 dews at 7am.

Not anything unheard of, but yeah, the environment is ready for severe weather.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 10:51 AM

Along with forecasted 60-75kt of bulk eff, 2,500 SBCAPE and 1,500-2,000 MLCAPE with 7-8 C/KM lapse rates across the board with initially veering winds with height

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 10:52 AM

Yeah there is already 1,000 cape in a small area out in Eastern Washington and Oregon. (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 10:52 AM

Surprisingly with this event, CAM'S have stayed very consistent on the evolution of this system as a whole

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 11:34 AM

PRIMARY CHANGE IS TO INCREASE TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OR. CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN FOR AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. CONCERNS OVER THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WIND COVERAGE PRECLUDE FURTHER UPGRADING AT THIS TIME.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 12:52 PM

Okay OR

#2020ing moment 100%

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 01:10 PM

r/2020ing

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 01:13 PM

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1266791812276027394

Craig Ceecee (@CC_StormWatch)

At least since 2002 (possibly ever?), there has NEVER been a Moderate Risk issued by the SPC west of the Continental Divide. The farthest west is central Montana. If they pull the trigger, it would be historic. #ORwx #WAwx #severe

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 01:24 PM

https://twitter.com/nwsspc/status/1266796844517953536?s=21

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

1:21pm CDT #SPC_MD 0765 , #orwx #wawx, https://t.co/QN2p2LnGlj

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 01:36 PM

Def gonna be a high-end Wind driven watch

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 01:36 PM

I just find it hilarious that people are freaking out over risks being issued in new areas. All that means is that there is a better threat for somebody to be killed or a better threat for damage to be done. But I don't know, that's just how I look at it after I have chased for multiple years seen tornadoes and also currently studying in Emergency Management. (edited)

I'm not surprised that they upgraded the tornado risk in that area as storms look to go super cellular when they first go up and will be discreet. Looking at current mesoscale data, Eastern Oregon does have 50 to 60 knots of sheer. CAPE building into the 2,000s. I'm not going to be watching the storms when they go up, as I get bored watching storms on radar that I'm not chasing. But I love doing mesoscale analysis's. (edited)

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 01:49 PM

Excuse my errors. That's what happens when you use talk-to-text.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 01:51 PM

Speaking of supercelluar convection

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-May-20 01:51 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 01:52 PM

Jesus 85 mph

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 02:03 PM

Man... and hail

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 02:34 PM

Already golfballs reported, damaging cars

23 SSE Chemult [Klamath Co, OR] PUBLIC reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 11:55 AM PDT -- HAIL DAMAGED VEHICLES. REPORT WAS FROM MILEPOST 8 ON SILVER LAKE HIGHWAY.

1

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 30-May-20 03:37 PM

Oregon is a radar hole... who knew till now...

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 04:12 PM

https://twitter.com/HartungWx/status/1266833571974541312

Garret Hartung (@HartungWx)

@NWSPendleton Absolute beast going on right now looking west between Sister and Bend along highway 20. #orwx

https://twitter.com/HartungWx/status/1266838836438372352

Garret Hartung (@HartungWx)

Didn’t lose the windshield but I might have a few dents in my car. Probably was closer to ping pong before slightly melting. Found at the three sisters viewpoint along highway 20 #orwx @NWSPendleton

https://twitter.com/tehamacospotter/status/1266838236199968769

Tehama Co. Spotter (@tehamacospotter)

Photos of the ‘green sky’ phenomena indicating large hail moving through the Bend, Or. area this afternoon. Amazing! Photo credit: @cmir9. @NWSPendleton #ORwx

https://twitter.com/HartungWx/status/1266835424011419648

Garret Hartung (@HartungWx)

You sure this ain’t Kansas? @NWSPendleton #orwx

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 30-May-20 04:21 PM

Oregon is a radar hole... who knew till now...

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) that's what happens when you live in an area that is not prone to severe weather. However, it's a little ridiculous that there is one exact spot in Oregon that has no radar coverage what so ever. (edited)

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 04:36 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 05:04 PM

https://twitter.com/WaWxChasers/status/1266847892737675269

Washington Weather Chasers (@WaWxChasers)

#orwx Impressive wall cloud. Had something on the ground for about 3 minutes earlier.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 30-May-20 05:09 PM

Meanwhile on the coast of SC. https://twitter.com/bradley1824/status/1266853376312164352/photo/1

Steven Bouknight (@bradley1824)

Here you go @ChrisJacksonSC

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 05:10 PM

Dafaq

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 05:10 PM

https://twitter.com/BenjaminJurkovi/status/1266853530062577664

Benjamin Jurkovich (@BenjaminJurkovi)

Slowly rotating wallcloud just north of monument, Oregon. #orwx @NWSPendleton

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 30-May-20 05:10 PM

5000 j/kg CAPE in NE OR

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 05:13 PM

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM PDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WASCO COUNTIES... At 304 PM PDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Warm Springs Reservation to near South Junction to Willowdale, moving north at 45 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Storm spotters and weather stations have measured winds of 60 to 80 mph with these storms.

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1266855484557938688?s=19

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

5:14pm CDT #SPC_MD 0768 , #idwx #orwx #wawx, https://t.co/wyGDZhUBbu

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 05:44 PM

https://twitter.com/MTsevereweather/status/1266862278848049152

Chris Streeks (@MTsevereweather)

Structure starting to come into view S of Echo, OR. Although the storm has taken a step back on radar it looks pretty good... #orwx

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-May-20 06:04 PM

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status/1266867361514057728

Michael Snyder (@SeattleWXGuy)

#orwx #wawx mothership incoming

https://twitter.com/NWSPendleton/status/1266868098595864577

NWS Pendleton (@NWSPendleton)

4pm - A look at the severe storm approaching @NWSPendleton this afternoon. Again, not the kind of storm structure we typically see around here. #orwx #wawx