Stormtrack - 12-16-2019_ar_la_ms_al

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:39 PM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

Storm Prediction Center Dec 13, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:48 PM

Morphtato 13-Dec-19 11:49 PM

^ S of the Jackson, MS area.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:49 PM

yeah kinda cherry picked it.

So it's decent to get it done, but messy with veer.

Morphtato 13-Dec-19 11:52 PM

Just to the east of Columbus, MS near the MS/AL border. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:52 PM

yeah that's better

50knot storm motion. Suckers moving.

Morphtato 13-Dec-19 11:53 PM

Fast moving, messy storm mode.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:54 PM

You can't chase that. You just have to be in the way. (edited)

GrayGhost 13-Dec-19 11:54 PM

Pretty much. Typical of most of my chasing when I still lived in that part of the country

Noir 14-Dec-19 12:13 AM

Interested to see how this develops, but as of now I have better things to do than get run over by 50kts storms in the jungle.

Morphtato 14-Dec-19 02:52 AM

Morphtato 15-Dec-19 12:23 AM

Experimental HRRR certainly going aggressive with this one. https://gyazo.com/44a4f4b1dd3be6f1986f3d594bb09872

Gyazo

Morphtato 15-Dec-19 01:02 AM

D2 Enhanced upgrade for wind (30%)

TORNADO: 5% - SLIGHT WIND: 30% - ENHANCED HAIL: 15% - SLIGHT

KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 01:27 AM

Experimental HRRR just a little bit bullish there.

Angelo 15-Dec-19 03:46 PM

Can’t wait to see all the disappointed chasers on twitter tomorrow

9

jordand71 15-Dec-19 04:36 PM

if i do choose to chase tomorrow afternoon the furthest im going is 3hrs out. aka under $50 in gas. South TN/ North AL

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 06:48 PM

interesting to see what SPC does tonight the the update....

Probabilistic Outlook

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 15-Dec-19 06:50 PM

What the SPC does with the update will likely be far more interesting than what actually happens. I think Dixie is #1 for the most potential hype that ends up being garbage. So they can still brag about that.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:02 PM

Well Shane this is a Postive Tilted Trough. Not expecting a outbreak of severe wx. Some of the storms getting severe, yes. Flooding will be the big issue. Ussually you get that with negative titled trough or at least I thought that's how it is? Negative gives you the outbreaks. Correct me if I'm wrong. Course I wouldn't mind being surprised and Jordan gets something!

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 07:08 PM

no, tomorrow is legit

there's a lot to like about tomorrow and there could be multipe significant tornadoes

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:10 PM

ok, i see a bit of veer. but that's a legit sounding.

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 07:23 PM

I don't understand how the hype isn't even higher for tomorrow

tomorrow is dangerous

KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 07:33 PM

Yeah, I'm actually very concerned if supercells form.

Especially when I can click anywhere pretty much any spot ahead of the front in south MS and LA and get a sounding like this

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:39 PM

Well then SPC will be interesting for sure gonna stay up for this.

Morphtato 15-Dec-19 07:41 PM

I'm getting the

ready, because this will be interesting. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:52 PM

Wow, few days ago I had to cherry pick a sharpy to get it decent. Now it's looking very interesting. Now I wish I could go, almost.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 15-Dec-19 08:03 PM

OT Ranch when the new update comes out ?

3

Morphtato 15-Dec-19 08:06 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 08:07 PM

L33T

SPC party

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 15-Dec-19 08:08 PM

Morphtato 15-Dec-19 08:11 PM

Of course the NAM continues to go

6

Noir 15-Dec-19 08:36 PM

Cloud cover could be a problem; but either way tomorrow is a computer chase day. No desire to run in the jungle.

KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 09:13 PM

Small 75 contour there at 21z in LA, surrounded by a fairly large 60 contour. 03z SREF will run later. (edited)

10

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 09:30 PM

NAM3k luv of Squal is showing in 00z

@KFC Chicken I'm doubting that.

KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 09:33 PM

It's hard for me to really believe that the probs are that high, but the HRRR has been consistent. We'll see what happens, I doubt it'll be complete squall like NAM3k (which it always is anyway).

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 09:35 PM

I know NAM is in luv with squal or QLCS.

KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 09:51 PM

#⚡wx-lobby⚡ giving us another treat for this event

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 09:57 PM

Steve Copertino (New York, NY) 15-Dec-19 10:01 PM

00z HREF

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 10:04 PM

Mike Ma

z (Minneapolis, MN)Today at 7:23 PM I don't understand how the hype isn't even higher for tomorrow tomorrow is dangerous

people are starting to catch on

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 15-Dec-19 10:04 PM

2

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 10:04 PM

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 10:05 PM

https://twitter.com/VORTEXJeff/status/1206424612185214976

Jeff Frame (@VORTEXJeff)

Vicksburg, MS, may not be bad place for a hypothetical lunch tomorrow. https://t.co/hesGCUVVPM

9

KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 10:05 PM

I've been kinda watching it thinking the HRRR was being 36hr HRRR but now that we're close I have to pay attention (edited)

Morphtato 15-Dec-19 11:57 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 12:04 AM

10%

Brad Arnold (Huntsville, AL) 16-Dec-19 01:30 AM

What a weak ass discussion. Vague means they don’t have the slightest damn idea what’s going to happen.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 01:40 AM

Yeah they don't mention Strong long lived tornadoes or brief ones at all.

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 16-Dec-19 10:18 AM

Hi

smile

CanadianStormChaser 16-Dec-19 10:25 AM

MDT Upgrade

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 16-Dec-19 10:26 AM

Hi

CanadianStormChaser 16-Dec-19 10:26 AM

Hello there Mike!

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 16-Dec-19 10:27 AM

15 hatch yay

I was correct

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 10:39 AM

been a minute Discord lol looks like we got the spc kiss of death this update lol

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 16-Dec-19 10:40 AM

Good old Broyles MDT upgrade

But so far, have a couple good looking storms

Ben Jurkovich (Lake Stevens, WA) 16-Dec-19 11:23 AM

Nice looking storm

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 11:36 AM

yo dawg i heard you like MDs so i put an md within your md within your md

T Beam (KCMO) 16-Dec-19 11:38 AM

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 11:50 AM

seriously though what a tornado I take back my kiss of death comment from earlier lol

CanadianStormChaser 16-Dec-19 11:53 AM

Lol

Morphtato 16-Dec-19 12:42 PM

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALEXANDRIA...

Good god this is ugly.

T Beam (KCMO) 16-Dec-19 12:46 PM

Yep. Tornado Emergency

9

T Beam (KCMO) 16-Dec-19 12:54 PM

Looks like it might have hit the water department

AverageBreh 16-Dec-19 12:55 PM

Hooki boii

Voldigar 16-Dec-19 01:00 PM

Confirmed tornado on Edgewood Drive heading north east 25 kn

Attachment: animated.mov (79.38 KB)

Law-enforcement officials and firefighters have reported a quarter mile wide wedge tornado

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 01:31 PM

@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) lol thanx John

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 01:32 PM

this went from bad to worse pretty quick this morning

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 01:32 PM

oh yeah. Well there HP wrapped suckers.

This seems to be lining up. Still it's segemented and frontals out there.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 01:36 PM

i was hoping the storm would chill out before alexandria but alas the conditions were way too good for that bad boy to not be cyclical

Morphtato 16-Dec-19 01:41 PM

https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1206659879898943488

Brian Emfinger (@brianemfinger)

Tornado damage Alexandria, LA @JimCantore

Morphtato 16-Dec-19 02:22 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1206670466892607488

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Mississippi and Tennessee until 9 PM CST

50/30 TOR (edited)

Morphtato 16-Dec-19 03:49 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/656251491224518676/EL8IM1AUcAE8aet.png

40/20 TOR

Morphtato 16-Dec-19 07:18 PM

https://twitter.com/WxLiz/status/1206744607771500544

Elizabeth Leitman (@WxLiz)

Progression of @NWSSPC outlooks valid 12.16.19. Super proud to be a part of this amazing team! @mattmosier got us started at Day 5, with a tag team effort by myself, Steve Goss, @supercellsigtor, @SkyPixWeather and @jwxman. Excellent forecasting!

#teamworkmakesthe...

KFC Chicken 16-Dec-19 09:09 PM

JT 16-Dec-19 09:46 PM

@Angelo you’ve got some explaining to do

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 16-Dec-19 10:09 PM

That didn't age well lol

Angelo 17-Dec-19 10:53 AM

I never said the event would underperform

What, 5 chasers saw a tornado yesterday?

Morphtato 17-Dec-19 01:57 PM

It sure didn't underperform...

(subject to change)

Morphtato 17-Dec-19 03:15 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonMS/status/1207046170242994176

NWS Jackson MS (@NWSJacksonMS)

Tornado Survey Update: Prelim damage survey information suggests a high end EF2 tornado went through Lamar County around Sumrall and into far southern Covington County. Winds estimated around 132mph.

Morphtato 17-Dec-19 08:45 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1207129136969338880

NWS Lake Charles (@NWSLakeCharles)

A NWS Storm Survey team investigated yesterday's tornado between DeRidder and Alexandria and determined winds to be between 140-160 MPH making it an EF-3 on the enhanced Fujita scale. The path length was 62 miles long and tornado was 400 yards wide at its largest.

Morphtato 19-Dec-19 08:50 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/445308649808855048/657404342235561990/191216_tor.png

Can say the 15% hatched was absolutely appropriate for this one.

Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 19-Dec-19 08:57 PM

yes, I am glad I called for a 15% hatched the night before the event

Mike Ma

z (Minneapolis, MN)Last Sunday at 7:08 PM no, tomorrow is legit there's a lot to like about tomorrow and there could be multipe significant tornadoes Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)Last Sunday at 7:10 PM ok, i see a bit of veer. but that's a legit sounding. Mike Ma

z (Minneapolis, MN)Last Sunday at 7:23 PM I don't understand how the hype isn't even higher for tomorrow tomorrow is dangerous

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 20-Dec-19 12:01 AM

He called it! Bow before Mike "Zod" Marz! (edited)