Stormtrack
12-16-2019_ar_la_ms_al_tn
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:39 PM
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:48 PM
Morphtato 13-Dec-19 11:49 PM
^ S of the Jackson, MS area.
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:49 PM
yeah kinda cherry picked it.
So it's decent to get it done, but messy with veer.
Morphtato 13-Dec-19 11:52 PM
Just to the east of Columbus, MS near the MS/AL border. (edited)
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:52 PM
yeah that's better
50knot storm motion. Suckers moving.
Morphtato 13-Dec-19 11:53 PM
Fast moving, messy storm mode.
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Dec-19 11:54 PM
You can't chase that. You just have to be in the way. (edited)
GrayGhost 13-Dec-19 11:54 PM
Pretty much. Typical of most of my chasing when I still lived in that part of the country
Noir 14-Dec-19 12:13 AM
Interested to see how this develops, but as of now I have better things to do than get run over by 50kts storms in the jungle.
Morphtato 14-Dec-19 02:52 AM
Morphtato 15-Dec-19 12:23 AM
Experimental HRRR certainly going aggressive with this one. https://gyazo.com/44a4f4b1dd3be6f1986f3d594bb09872
Morphtato 15-Dec-19 01:02 AM
D2 Enhanced upgrade for wind (30%)
TORNADO: 5% - SLIGHT WIND: 30% - ENHANCED HAIL: 15% - SLIGHT
KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 01:27 AM
Experimental HRRR just a little bit bullish there.
Angelo 15-Dec-19 03:46 PM
Can’t wait to see all the disappointed chasers on twitter tomorrow
Yao 9
jordand71 15-Dec-19 04:36 PM
if i do choose to chase tomorrow afternoon the furthest im going is 3hrs out. aka under $50 in gas. South TN/ North AL
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 06:48 PM
interesting to see what SPC does tonight the the update....
Probabilistic Outlook
Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 15-Dec-19 06:50 PM
What the SPC does with the update will likely be far more interesting than what actually happens. I think Dixie is #1 for the most potential hype that ends up being garbage. So they can still brag about that.
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:02 PM
Well Shane this is a Postive Tilted Trough. Not expecting a outbreak of severe wx. Some of the storms getting severe, yes. Flooding will be the big issue. Ussually you get that with negative titled trough or at least I thought that's how it is? Negative gives you the outbreaks. Correct me if I'm wrong. Course I wouldn't mind being surprised and Jordan gets something!
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 07:08 PM
no, tomorrow is legit
there's a lot to like about tomorrow and there could be multipe significant tornadoes
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:10 PM
ok, i see a bit of veer. but that's a legit sounding.
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 07:23 PM
I don't understand how the hype isn't even higher for tomorrow
tomorrow is dangerous
KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 07:33 PM
Yeah, I'm actually very concerned if supercells form.
Especially when I can click anywhere pretty much any spot ahead of the front in south MS and LA and get a sounding like this
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:39 PM
Well then SPC will be interesting for sure gonna stay up for this.
Morphtato 15-Dec-19 07:41 PM
I'm getting the 🍿 ready, because this will be interesting. (edited)
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 07:52 PM
Wow, few days ago I had to cherry pick a sharpy to get it decent. Now it's looking very interesting. Now I wish I could go, almost.
Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 15-Dec-19 08:03 PM
OT Ranch when the new update comes out ?
yee 3
Morphtato 15-Dec-19 08:06 PM
yee
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 08:07 PM
L33T
SPC party
Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 15-Dec-19 08:08 PM
Spann
Morphtato 15-Dec-19 08:11 PM
Of course the NAM continues to go derecho
derecho 6
Noir 15-Dec-19 08:36 PM
Cloud cover could be a problem; but either way tomorrow is a computer chase day. No desire to run in the jungle.
KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 09:13 PM
Small 75 contour there at 21z in LA, surrounded by a fairly large 60 contour. 03z SREF will run later. (edited)
Hank 10
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 09:30 PM
NAM3k luv of Squal is showing in 00z
@KFC Chicken I'm doubting that.
KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 09:33 PM
It's hard for me to really believe that the probs are that high, but the HRRR has been consistent. We'll see what happens, I doubt it'll be complete squall like NAM3k (which it always is anyway).
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 09:35 PM
I know NAM is in luv with squal or QLCS.
KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 09:51 PM
#⚡wx-lobby⚡ giving us another treat for this event
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 09:57 PM
Steve Copertino (New York, NY) 15-Dec-19 10:01 PM
00z HREF
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 10:04 PM
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN)Today at 7:23 PM I don't understand how the hype isn't even higher for tomorrow tomorrow is dangerous
people are starting to catch on
yee
Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 15-Dec-19 10:04 PM
Spann
Spann 2
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 15-Dec-19 10:04 PM
Spann 2
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Dec-19 10:05 PM
Vicksburg, MS, may not be bad place for a hypothetical lunch tomorrow. https://t.co/hesGCUVVPM
Yao 9
KFC Chicken 15-Dec-19 10:05 PM
I've been kinda watching it thinking the HRRR was being 36hr HRRR but now that we're close I have to pay attention (edited)
Morphtato 15-Dec-19 11:57 PM
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 12:04 AM
10%
Brad Arnold (Huntsville, AL) 16-Dec-19 01:30 AM
What a weak ass discussion. Vague means they don’t have the slightest damn idea what’s going to happen.
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 01:40 AM
Yeah they don't mention Strong long lived tornadoes or brief ones at all.
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 16-Dec-19 10:18 AM
Hi 👋🏼 smile 😃
CanadianStormChaser 16-Dec-19 10:25 AM
MDT Upgrade
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 16-Dec-19 10:26 AM
Hi 👋🏼
CanadianStormChaser 16-Dec-19 10:26 AM
Hello there Mike!
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 16-Dec-19 10:27 AM
15 hatch yay
I was correct
John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 10:39 AM
been a minute Discord lol looks like we got the spc kiss of death this update lol
WeathermanEd (Chicago) 16-Dec-19 10:40 AM
Good old Broyles MDT upgrade
But so far, have a couple good looking storms
Ben Jurkovich (Lake Stevens, WA) 16-Dec-19 11:23 AM
Nice looking storm
John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 11:36 AM
yo dawg i heard you like MDs so i put an md within your md within your md
T Beam (KCMO) 16-Dec-19 11:38 AM
John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 11:50 AM
seriously though what a tornado I take back my kiss of death comment from earlier lol
CanadianStormChaser 16-Dec-19 11:53 AM
Lol
Morphtato 16-Dec-19 12:42 PM
...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ALEXANDRIA...
Good god this is ugly.
T Beam (KCMO) 16-Dec-19 12:46 PM
Yep. Tornado Emergency
😭 9
T Beam (KCMO) 16-Dec-19 12:54 PM
Looks like it might have hit the water department
AverageBreh 16-Dec-19 12:55 PM
Hooki boii
Voldigar 16-Dec-19 01:00 PM
Confirmed tornado on Edgewood Drive heading north east 25 kn
Law-enforcement officials and firefighters have reported a quarter mile wide wedge tornado
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 01:31 PM
@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) lol thanx John
John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 01:32 PM
this went from bad to worse pretty quick this morning
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Dec-19 01:32 PM
oh yeah. Well there HP wrapped suckers.
This seems to be lining up. Still it's segemented and frontals out there.
John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Dec-19 01:36 PM
i was hoping the storm would chill out before alexandria but alas the conditions were way too good for that bad boy to not be cyclical
Morphtato 16-Dec-19 01:41 PM
Morphtato 16-Dec-19 02:22 PM
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Mississippi and Tennessee until 9 PM CST
50/30 TOR (edited)
Morphtato 16-Dec-19 07:18 PM
Progression of @NWSSPC outlooks valid 12.16.19. Super proud to be a part of this amazing team! @mattmosier got us started at Day 5, with a tag team effort by myself, Steve Goss, @supercellsigtor, @SkyPixWeather and @jwxman. Excellent forecasting! 🙌🏼 #teamworkmakesthe...
KFC Chicken 16-Dec-19 09:09 PM
JT 16-Dec-19 09:46 PM
@Angelo you’ve got some explaining to do Yao
WeathermanEd (Chicago) 16-Dec-19 10:09 PM
That didn't age well lol
Angelo 17-Dec-19 10:53 AM
I never said the event would underperform
What, 5 chasers saw a tornado yesterday?
Morphtato 17-Dec-19 01:57 PM
It sure didn't underperform...
(subject to change)
Morphtato 17-Dec-19 03:15 PM
Tornado Survey Update: Prelim damage survey information suggests a high end EF2 tornado went through Lamar County around Sumrall and into far southern Covington County. Winds estimated around 132mph.
Morphtato 17-Dec-19 08:45 PM
A NWS Storm Survey team investigated yesterday's tornado between DeRidder and Alexandria and determined winds to be between 140-160 MPH making it an EF-3 on the enhanced Fujita scale. The path length was 62 miles long and tornado was 400 yards wide at its largest.
Morphtato 19-Dec-19 08:50 PM
Can say the 15% hatched was absolutely appropriate for this one.
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) 19-Dec-19 08:57 PM
yes, I am glad I called for a 15% hatched the night before the event
Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN)Last Sunday at 7:08 PM no, tomorrow is legit there's a lot to like about tomorrow and there could be multipe significant tornadoes Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)Last Sunday at 7:10 PM ok, i see a bit of veer. but that's a legit sounding. Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN)Last Sunday at 7:23 PM I don't understand how the hype isn't even higher for tomorrow tomorrow is dangerous
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 20-Dec-19 12:01 AM
He called it! Bow before Mike "Zod" Marz! (edited)