Stormtrack - 4-11-20_ar_la_ok

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 09-Apr-20 01:03 PM

Cricket noises

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Apr-20 01:12 PM

Shhhhh Cameron I'm napping

6

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 09-Apr-20 10:07 PM

I found a PDS TOR sounding for Saturday.

https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index-mobile.php?type=2020041000|NAM|SGP|con|1kmehi|48|34.03,-99.4|ml|severe

sheislisamarie 10-Apr-20 12:43 PM

There are a lot of storms rolling through the San Antonio Austin area tomorrow, but nothing terribly impressive. I may just wake up at like 5am on Sunday and head SE to catch the initial blow up of this system before it heads into Louisiana.

ChasingTheMeso.com 10-Apr-20 12:55 PM

Honestly, as crazy as it sounds, I might just stay back in Oklahoma and chase in Western Oklahoma. Storms out in that part of the State have been pretty consistent and look good imo. Dew points are around 55 degrees, so not amazing, and the shear really isn't there, but as of right now, I haven't seen anything showing convection in SW TX, where the main risk is, and the storms in Eastern, TX just do not interest me.

sheislisamarie 10-Apr-20 02:02 PM

Hmm, SPC did expand the Enhanced area further east in TX. I'm going to be watching models like a hawk to see if anything good comes available in my area.

@ChasingTheMeso.com I don't blame you. Tomorrow looks kind of messy across TX.

ChasingTheMeso.com 10-Apr-20 02:47 PM

@sheislisamarie newest HRRR shows nothing to interesting in TX now until after 7pm. Storms don't look as impressive in Oklahoma either, but the 18z wants a rotating storm to go through Central Oklahoma now. Pretty much all of the other parameters are the same though.

Yeah, going off of the 12z run those storms in TX look to be really messy and I don't want to have to deal with messy storms and trees lol

453Braxton 10-Apr-20 02:57 PM

Ok HRRR, calm the heck down

ChasingTheMeso.com 10-Apr-20 04:10 PM

@453Braxton looks like a good day for us.

If it stays true.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 10-Apr-20 04:10 PM

wouldnt be mad

ChasingTheMeso.com 10-Apr-20 04:11 PM

I wouldn't either.

I mean this whole time I have been focusing on Oklahoma way more than where the "Enhanced" risk is.

453Braxton 10-Apr-20 04:14 PM

Oh yeah, I'd love if that run of HRRR verified, or something along those lines. I'd love to have a thunderstorm lol

ChasingTheMeso.com 10-Apr-20 04:18 PM

The past 3 days the NAM 3km has been deadset on storm in NW OK.

When I seen that and the other parameters I knew it was something to watch, espeically given that the SW Texas region has shown absolutely no convection since the NAM 3km came into range.

Storms in Eastern TX have looked trash as well.

sheislisamarie 10-Apr-20 04:51 PM

Dang, maybe I should drive up to Oklahoma lol

ChasingTheMeso.com 10-Apr-20 05:21 PM

https://tenor.com/view/oklahoma-ruprecht-dirty-rotten-scoundrels-gif-3517213

Ruprecht gets excited about Oklahoma.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 11-Apr-20 12:27 AM

Right now, I'm kind of liking what I see for SW OK tomorrow. If I had to make a call right now, I'd say Frederick is my target, but we will see what it looks like in the morning. (edited)

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:31 AM

Yeah, SW OK has definitely had my attention for the past few days or so.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 11-Apr-20 12:32 AM

Some decent looking parameters just north of the Red River.

Morphtato 11-Apr-20 12:57 AM

❤️

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:57 AM

I'm so glad.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 11-Apr-20 12:57 AM

SW OK got a cutie hatched for 15% hail

Get it

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:57 AM

I knew the risk would shift North.

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 11-Apr-20 12:58 AM

5% on OK/TX border lol

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:58 AM

That's good probabilty

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 11-Apr-20 12:58 AM

Extreme SW OK got a 5% tor, good game Mike lol

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:58 AM

My target has been NW TX

I was hoping the risk would move North, however. Everything has been saying NW TX/SW OK for the past 3 or so days. Really like the setup. No, it's not anything crazy, but I can get some structure hopefully.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 11-Apr-20 01:07 AM

I like the storm speeds a lot better than dixie on sunday.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 01:21 AM

Oh definitely!!

Plus we'll actually be able to see!

Hopefully this crap doesn't verify. What a mess.

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 07:43 AM

A couple of cells near Bastrop, TX have my attention for 3pm, so I'll stick to my home turf. Can't wait to see what pans out for you guys in OK

2

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 08:41 AM

NW TX as of 8:35am. Looking good so far!

GrayGhost 11-Apr-20 08:43 AM

Not feeling too bad in DFW right now. Barely got below 60 last night near Gainesville

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 08:44 AM

Lucky! It got down to 55 I think in Norman.

GrayGhost 11-Apr-20 08:45 AM

I think it was 58 when I woke up at 530 at the rest area right across the river from Winstar

Either way, shorts and t-shirt sufficed

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 08:53 AM

And.... The dewpoints are slowly rising. (edited)

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 09:03 AM

Just realized I was looking at 07z data. Just looked at 12z model data and I love that cell coming into Northern Texas from the South around 22-00z. If that cell stays consistent I will probably setup around Seymour or Mabelle

Love seeing less storms, doesn't look like such a big mess now!

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 11-Apr-20 09:08 AM

I will be hitting the road within the hour, as soon as my laundry is done.

I might head south of Vernon towards Seymour.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 09:12 AM

We'll see if the juice makes that big jump between 15-18z

I would expect the HRRR to trend more and more towards few storms, based on NAM output. There's just too much happening for as subtle as the lift is forecast to be across that region IMO.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 09:25 AM

Thanks for posting that WTX mesonet link Mike. I had forgotten about that.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 09:31 AM

No problem Shane!!!

http://rain.ttu.edu/mesonet/obsframe.html For anyone who would like to use the West Texas Mesonet.

CanadianStormChaser 11-Apr-20 10:03 AM

Pinned a message.

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 10:48 AM

Wellllll everything in my area disappeared again on the 14Z HRRR run

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 10:51 AM

Come up to Northwestern Texas!!

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 10:55 AM

I wouldn't make it in time! The 14Z showed that maybe my nearest cell in that area was still 4.5 hours away. YIKES.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 10:56 AM

That sucks. Hopefully the 15z will be nicer to you and show a storm in your area!

You're down near Austin right?

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:05 AM

Hate cloud coverage.

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 11:07 AM

Yes! Very norther tip of Travis county in a suburb of Austin. Looks like the 15z brought something back.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:10 AM

Well heck yeah!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:13 AM

Ugh, that satellite image is gross.

benr1001 11-Apr-20 11:14 AM

Yeah, I'm just gonna stay home and armchair chase this one

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:17 AM

That cell to the NE of Lubbock has been extremely consistent for the past few days, the storm should be in an environment with mid 60 dew points. The 500mb isn't impressive however. Right now the West Texas Mesonet is showing 72/56. The reason why I bring this storm up is because the newest HRRR shows the cell going over WF being a little bit weaker IN MY OPINION... That cell looks to rotate still and will be in a pretty good environment, but I'm just openly thinking.

Agreed, the cloud coverage is horrible.

Also, I mainly wrote that stuff above to get everyone else's opinion on what I wrote.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:18 AM

HRRR is trending more in recent runs towards what I figured it would look like last night when I was commenting about the setup.

Isolating everything down and putting it further west than the several earlier runs this morning.

With as marginal as this setup is, it can ill afford an instability issue due to CC. Shear is not amazing.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:23 AM

I agree with you on that. The shear is pretty marginal, at least from the data I have reviewed. Looks to be trending around 40-45kt.

(That is based off of the 500mb)

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 11-Apr-20 11:28 AM

10% hatch up for tornadoes in 2 separate spots for todays update

Morphtato 11-Apr-20 11:28 AM

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 11-Apr-20 11:28 AM

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:29 AM

Really?

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 11-Apr-20 11:29 AM

op my bad the hatch is only for south central tx

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:29 AM

I didn't expect that northern one based on the forecast shear. It's underwhelming at best IMO.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:30 AM

10% tornado risk? Wow. Didn't expect that.

GrayGhost 11-Apr-20 11:30 AM

That's interesting to see. It was sunny in the part of DFW I'm in up until a few minutes ago. CC finally caught up

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:31 AM

I'm really surprised by the SPC upgrading to a 10%

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:31 AM

I wonder if the NAM is under forecasting shear?

Because nothing I've seen would make me guess they'd upgrade.

GrayGhost 11-Apr-20 11:32 AM

They're about done unloading me so I've already put the laptop away. I'll check it out when I get to the next shipper though

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 11:42 AM

I'm really thinking about targeting that storm that looks to go up NE of Lubbock.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:45 AM

I'm not sure what I'm gonna do.

I just don't see what they're seeing. I'm barely convinced a decent sup will form and sustain itself, let alone a tornadic one.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 11-Apr-20 11:45 AM

i wont be chasing it but hail trace will be heading down toward the red river this afternoon because why not

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 11-Apr-20 11:46 AM

I'm going to head southwest hopefully in the next hour or so and readjust based on surface observations on the fly.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:48 AM

SPC likes my target more than I do lol.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 11-Apr-20 11:55 AM

A lot of the soundings from the RR area of SW OK/NW TX are contaminated

benr1001 11-Apr-20 12:02 PM

@GrayGhost What part of DFW are you in?

I'm over in Richardson and there was some rumbling thunder but it all went around us

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:13 PM

Rolling out.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 11-Apr-20 12:15 PM

I'm going to get a later start than expected, but hope to get on the road by 1. Right now, I would head toward Vernon for the road options.

@ChasingTheMeso.com Hope to meet you out there today.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 12:22 PM

@Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) hopefully I'll see you out there as well!

irox 11-Apr-20 12:42 PM

I can only say be safe. Be careful of rual towns as many are still enforcing the shelter in place and last I heard chasing is frowned upon and may be asked how you're essential. *Oklahoma not Texas (edited)

Morphtato 11-Apr-20 12:48 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1249031524906700801

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

12:48pm CDT #SPC_MD 0334 , #txwx, https://t.co/6BMykbVxds

4

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 11-Apr-20 01:32 PM

Currently in Seymour sitting and waiting.

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 01:37 PM

To the east of Lawton right now.

Heading South.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 11-Apr-20 01:44 PM

I'm running behind. Just leaving.

Heading toward Lawton and points South and West.

James Wilson 11-Apr-20 01:52 PM

South of Lawton heading south

Morphtato 11-Apr-20 02:02 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1249050181108023301

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Oklahoma and Texas until 10 PM CDT

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 02:09 PM

PDS TOR in Rockdale at 6pm. Don't know how much I trust this as every other run of the HRRR has taken away or added cells in the area, but I'll head that way.

benr1001 11-Apr-20 02:13 PM

60/20 is about what I was expecting for a watch

benr1001 11-Apr-20 02:29 PM

I know which dryline storm I'd be heading to right now

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 04:52 PM

I appear to be the only chaser on this Thorndale cell.

10

benr1001 11-Apr-20 05:08 PM

I wouldn't expect to get much out of that but I'm at home so you're already doing better than me!

WarmSector 11-Apr-20 05:37 PM

On the velocity scan, it almost looks like RFD winds with the Rockdale storm... maybe it’s trying lol

I am almost there

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 05:48 PM

I believe in this storm!

WarmSector 11-Apr-20 06:03 PM

I seen rotation with it!

WarmSector 11-Apr-20 06:28 PM

1

sheislisamarie 11-Apr-20 06:57 PM

Hearne, TX currently

3

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 07:34 PM

Awesome!!

WarmSector 11-Apr-20 07:45 PM

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 11-Apr-20 07:57 PM

Great Pics ALL!!

ChasingTheMeso.com 11-Apr-20 08:38 PM

Awesome structure

WarmSector 11-Apr-20 08:41 PM

Thanks

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 11-Apr-20 08:42 PM

Good stuff man.

RidleyTheSpacePirate34 11-Apr-20 08:43 PM

https://twitter.com/lucerotrevi_/status/1249146383602536448 This unfortunate soul got cored. Not a chaser/ spotter btw

Lucero (@lucerotrevi_)

These are giGANTIC https://t.co/VaZUFPOsQZ

5

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 11-Apr-20 08:57 PM

del rio just got fulululuuuuu.....not cursing sorry boys

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 11-Apr-20 10:45 PM

https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1249177858473431040?s=20

Jim Tang (@wxmann)

The more I look at this the more I'm convinced about the AR threat tomorrow. Much steeper lapse rates, closer to the main area of ascent at the nose of the upper-jet, more backed surface flow. Conditional on morning convection, but CAM's are unanimous on destabilization. http...