Stormtrack - 4-22-2020_tx_la

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 21-Apr-20 01:40 PM

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 01:48 PM

sufficient shear, very high cape in a capped dryline environment indicates discrete supercell development in the mid afternoon

Risk for tomorrow has certainly increased and continues to do so as the models trend towards a higher shear environment. Anticipating a couple or few isolated, very powerful supercells developing in NC Texas up to S OK

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 21-Apr-20 01:50 PM

Cap is strong, depends on how much destablization you get

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 01:50 PM

The stronger cap is offset by steep low level lapse rates

and the instability which is why I'm favoring discrete development

If the CAPE values north of 5000 verify, there's almost zero chance we're looking at a blue sky bust

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 21-Apr-20 01:51 PM

I am disappointed that there is no 4/21/2020. lol. (edited)

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 01:51 PM

Today is a fairly low risk day mike

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 21-Apr-20 01:51 PM

Jk jk. I think we have a good discussion going on in #chaser-discussion about that anyhow

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 01:51 PM

yeah was thinking the same

It remains yet to be seen whether the extreme CAPE verifies or not but if it does, watch out

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 21-Apr-20 01:52 PM

FWIW HRRR does throw a few embedded/semi-discrete supercells, but initiates convection rather relatively early in the day

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 01:53 PM

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) the HRRR is anticipating an MCS developing in the late morning hours ahead of the dryline, with VERY quick moisture return and rapidly sharpening cape on the dryline where the sups are expected to fire

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 21-Apr-20 01:54 PM

Not too confident on this event, this is one of those setups where OBS is going to be the determining factor 100%

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 01:54 PM

Absolutely agreed there. How fast the instability returns is going to be a major driving factor in determining whether we look at a cap bust

As of now, most models want the airmass to recover very quickly

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 21-Apr-20 02:51 PM

Worth noting that the HRRRv4 anticipates development but not as big of an MCS

Looks more like this, but no storms off the dryline afterward

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 21-Apr-20 03:22 PM

it is anticipating dryline storms, but further north in OK

the 18Z HRRR also is predicting a cap bust

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 21-Apr-20 03:26 PM

Yep I see a few in OK, one especially that looks really nice. We'll see if it holds up and what obs look like tomorrow

I think there'll be a couple good sups regardless, just a matter of where

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 21-Apr-20 04:45 PM

I'll be on this one (finally)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 21-Apr-20 04:46 PM

Hope the cards play in favor for you guys and you get some epic tubes

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 21-Apr-20 06:01 PM

It's a tricky forecast to be sure

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 21-Apr-20 06:22 PM

My debate is: go out to the dryline tomorrow, or just sit at my house here in the hatched area and wait?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 21-Apr-20 07:45 PM

I'll take a look at OBS and if the cards play and favor go where it takes you

Michael Beard (Fort Worth, TX) 21-Apr-20 10:24 PM

The dry line will be hours after the main event lol.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 21-Apr-20 10:31 PM

more than likely yeah

synoptic forcing is bigly

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 21-Apr-20 10:55 PM

Everyone should stay home

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:18 AM

Easy for us. We're right in the hatched area so we get to flatten the curve AND get to see some storms

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 22-Apr-20 12:31 AM

Meanwhile all I’m getting is graupel, snow and strong winds

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Apr-20 12:33 AM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Apr-20 12:57 AM

You guys have fun

AND stay safe!

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:07 AM

I think I can do both by just hanging out at home

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 22-Apr-20 02:55 AM

https://twitter.com/WxLiz/status/1252859966530052097/photo/1

Elizabeth Leitman (@WxLiz)

It’s been a craaaazy midnight shift so far for multiple reasons. And it’s only 220am! Sometimes, all you have time for is a quick, imperfect 2-min surface analysis to get your bearings so you can get out a quality product.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:04 AM

Ugh....this setup is so garbaged up. I hate morning severe on a chase day.

It's all mesoscale now, and virtually impossible to forecast with any appreciable lead-time. You gotta nail the target today.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:09 AM

It's tough for sure

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:10 AM

I'm formulating a plan, but it's probably a bad one. (edited)

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:11 AM

Ha what happened to "everyone should stay home"?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:11 AM

That was sarcasm lol.

But I'll admit, when I woke up this morning it started looking like sound advice.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:12 AM

It didn't fit the Shane Adams brand, that much I caught

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:13 AM

Yeah, I "try" to be like the kids on the internet, but I can;t pull it off. Even plain text, it's not genuine.

Not much of a troll/joker.

As for today, I'm just gonna go bust in N TX along the Red I think, if we go at all.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:14 AM

Luckily I've got plenty of time before things fire up to decide, and if they fire early well I'd have busted anyway then

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:14 AM

NAM h5 VV does not support my theory of a nice sup along the US82 corridor near Gainseville.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:15 AM

I saw that too

East of DFW may be ok too

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:15 AM

CAMS have it sporadically run-ro-run, but there's no lift showing up on NAM.

So I'm not putting a ton of stock on the HRRR right now.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:17 AM

I haven't checked obs yet, that'll be my first thing once I make some coffee

Mike Snyder (Seattle, WA) 22-Apr-20 09:25 AM

Loaded gun soundings west of i35 and spc moves 10% east, hmmm

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:30 AM

I'm really hoping that DL/CF/whatever doesn't sweep eastward as fast as progged.

But if it does we're ready.

As for the SPC, they probably jacked the torprobs further east mainly due to coverage.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:32 AM

I was hoping it'd be a dryline day originally, but it may just serve to mess things up

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:32 AM

Yeah. Somehow, clear sky busting on a DL is okay with me. It feels like chasing should be.

I figure we'll go to that new QT in Gainesville, sit for a few hours, then drive home. I'm not gonna drive two hours east to get in front of early-day garbage in the jungles of NE TX/SE OK.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:33 AM

Exactly!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:34 AM

I am perfectly okay missing all those significant tornadoes you get 30 seconds' worth of views of for the rest of my life. The stringers can have 'em all.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:35 AM

Yep

This cloud cover sucks too

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:35 AM

Yeah. Bridget got up a few minutes ago, walked in and drearily said "I guess today is shot."

LOL

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:35 AM

But if it can limit surface heating at least we may not get a complete cap bust

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:36 AM

I'm willing to go sit south of the Red and play on my phone a few hours.

But I am not taking a PTO for this setup LOL. I'll take the hit.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:36 AM

Yeah, I'm thinking maybe Sherman

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:36 AM

That's probably a great place to start.

We might end up just behind initiation in Gainesville......obs will let us know.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:37 AM

I don't feel like crossing the river through, hopefully I won't need to

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:38 AM

Me either.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:38 AM

Visibility actually isn't bad up there

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:38 AM

82 is decent east from 35 for a while, like 70 is in OK......but the crossings are far and few.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:38 AM

It's pretty clear down to I-30

75 is a good crossing but it's a little far west for today most likely

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:39 AM

Sadly

Does TX 78 cross the river??? It shows to on google maps.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:45 AM

Yep it's a big sturdy bridge actually

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:47 AM

Cool. I was unaware of that one.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:47 AM

Good morning sports fans. Needed a break from 13 days of stalemate of family member on a ventilator.

Not chasing but I figured it's an ugly enough setup that I might learn something.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:47 AM

Good to hear from you Chris, hangin in there?

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:47 AM

doing ok sir, how about yourself?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:48 AM

Good morning Chris.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:48 AM

Not bad, just dreaming of our May trip that'll never be

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:48 AM

Strange new world.

Wife and I are the primary contacts so its tense between the time we talk to the nurse then the doc gives us an update.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:50 AM

I bet that's tough, sounds like a no news is good news kind of thing?

Unless there's actual good news of course

Looks like Hank is heading to Gainesville, maybe you'll run into him Shane

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:00 AM

Possibly

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:00 AM

Best LL moisture seems to be south of 20 but it's creeping it's way up

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:02 AM

We get news 3 times a day and lately it more of the same. Right now we're working on getting them on convalescent plasma

huge family so we have to group text all of them.

hmm speed maxes at 500 aren't what I thought they would be this morning

low level shear is bigly

Nathan Hoelting (Amarillo, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:08 AM

Stay positive Chris.....I've had 4 family members hospitalized....3 recovered, and 2 were on vent in ICU for 3+ weeks before they walked out of the hospital, one still on a vent....it's very hard to do when it gets drug out over such a long period of time, I know.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:10 AM

Good to hear Nathan, so so happy they came off the vent.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:33 AM

14Z HRRR says stay home and relax haha

I think the plume of instability between the dryline and WAA area highlighted by SPC has a decent shot

Certainly more appealing than the mess north of the frontal zone

Honestly I may even just stay home til initiation

May go north a bit just to get out of the metro

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 22-Apr-20 10:45 AM

today definitely has a lot more questions than i was anticipating lol

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 10:49 AM

More questions than answers for sure

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 22-Apr-20 10:51 AM

glad i chased yesterday lol

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:25 AM

Many questions, but who was saying the dryline wasn't the main event? Those would be mostly the only chaseable storms anyways

they'd also have the best combo of instability, shear, and moisture to work with if the models were verifying (I need to check obs)

Already as of now there's 4000 SBCAPE back on the dryline with low level lapse rates approaching 7 just behind; later in the afternoon there's every possibility that a couple strong supercells erupt along the dryline. The major question is where and if the cap busts

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:30 AM

Last night that didn't appear to be the case, the system was progged to move through faster and a cap bust seemed more likely

So the main event was considered to be the arklatex stuff

but things have changed!

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:31 AM

I was seeing the potential for dryline storms yesterday into last night, I was under the assumption that was why the SPC upgraded the risk area

am i misunderstanding that?

I'm not trying to be condescending by the way, I'm sorry if it's coming off that way (edited)

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 22-Apr-20 11:31 AM

Doubt I'll see anything, but I'll be parked for the night near Hillsboro. No chasing in the big rig lol

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:31 AM

Nah you're good, the potential was always there

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:32 AM

It always felt that with THAT much instability on the dryline that there was every likelihood that dryline storms would initiate, it was just a question of how clean the warm sector would be

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:32 AM

Exactly

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:33 AM

That's why yesterday in public events we were discussing that it would all determine whether and where the cap would break along the dryline, anywhere from south central oklahoma to south of DFW

mostly were anticipating a couple larger supercells and an otherwise hard to predict initiaion

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:33 AM

Get him not me!

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:34 AM

@Michael Beard (Fort Worth, TX) darn it man!

i don't know, the HRRR instability seems to be verifying and if that's the case the DFW area can see SBCAPE above 5000 j/kg

with decent low level lapse rates and moisture, I think it's very likely the cap breaks somewhere west and possibly north of DFW on the dryline.

storms that initiate may struggle with the cap at first

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:36 AM

That's alright

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:36 AM

It's certainly a very difficult forecast

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:36 AM

Days like today are why I'm grateful for GOES-East

2

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:37 AM

^

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:39 AM

Why do you say that Chris? for seeing where the warm sector is clearing and where it isnt?

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:40 AM

Yup

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:40 AM

yes

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:40 AM

For anyone with an android phone, check out SatSquatch

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:40 AM

it's on ios too

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:40 AM

Oh is it now!

sweet

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:41 AM

College Station Hodo:

https://twitter.com/montana_eb/status/1252996534427320326?s=20

Montana Etten-Bohm (@montana_eb)

@JoshJohnsWx @tamu_atmo @TAMUGeosciences @TAMUMeteorology @TAMUMeteorology put it out about 30 minutes ago! Here ya go!

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:41 AM

I'm looking at the METARs on analyst and it's already giving me a pretty good idea of how cloudy it is further east

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:41 AM

It's one of my favorite tools, especially if you pay a little extra for the mesoanalysis overlay

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:41 AM

oh wow that's actually very impressive

the main thing about today is shear profiles further north aren't that impressive, but with this kind of instability it could very well end up not being a factor

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:42 AM

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=sp&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:42 AM

Above 3000-4000 CAPE all bets are off regarding shear

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:43 AM

I'm moreso looking for any sort of possible boundary interaction

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:43 AM

For tornadoes though it's important where the CAPE is actually located too

vertically I mean

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:43 AM

it could both indicate any point of initiation and the potential for a stronger tornado

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:43 AM

yeah there's a lot going on

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:44 AM

anybody who really nails this forecast is going to feel like a champion

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:46 AM

I'm just hoping to get lucky with mine

That's a lot of what today looks like it's gonna be

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:47 AM

By the way, be prepared for storms to start dying or becoming elevated by sundown, there's a lot of inhibition that develops in NE TX that I'm seeing

I could be wrong about that however

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:48 AM

I like how SPC mentions what is basically a forecast slow-down of the eastward progression of the DL.

They mention to 35 corridor by 22Z. Makes sense with current obs.

OKC to Fort Worth LOL.

Now, just have to pick the right spot

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:50 AM

Yeah, and note that there may very well be a dryline tilt by later in the evening as well

This is one of those days where you shouldn't get antsy and jump the first supercell you see though

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:50 AM

SW/NE?

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:50 AM

yes

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:50 AM

Yeah, you can see it on the HRRR output.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:51 AM

several other CAMs want a similar solution

Not sure what to think about obs supporting that kind of tilt in the dryline

it could end up supporting upscale growth in the evening or it could kill all the supercells by sundown

It's kind of beyond my understanding of obs

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:55 AM

Mine too.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:56 AM

Oof size:

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:56 AM

if anybody understands tilted dryline interaction and why the tornado threat by SPC is predicted to get so far east after sundown please enlighten us!

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:57 AM

CAPE and shear

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:57 AM

I know te CAMs are fairly aggressive with DL develoment, but the NAM and RAP are very bullish with VV

Like cap struggling bullish.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:58 AM

yup, look at the cap in the sounding from A&M

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:58 AM

I try not to LOL

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:58 AM

I think there's a solid chance the first cell or two that go up die pretty quickly

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:58 AM

hahah

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:58 AM

Yeah, need things to clear out a little more

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:59 AM

Temps on the dryline are already approaching 80 though

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 11:59 AM

But I like a stout cap, for obvious reasons.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 11:59 AM

this instability is only getting higher

https://gyazo.com/e23426186cb3653db732100947a70d74 wow 16Z HRRR really wants way more TX supercell development along the dryline

Gyazo

not sure how much i trust the Eastern extent of things as there's not nearly as much instability out there

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:01 PM

Cloud deck is getting thin.

west of austin

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:04 PM

HRRR has been trending to want more N TX supercells, which is fantastic but I will never forget nor forgive 5/20/19

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:06 PM

I mean to be fair, every CAM and obs were screaming a massive tornado outbreak

nobody expected the stout cap to come into play

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:07 PM

It's warm. That cap can still go away real quick.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:08 PM

The cap will probably erode some but I don't see it going away

it's going to play a major role in how discrete cells will be today

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:08 PM

I'm hoping it doesn't go away, but it's definitely a balancing act

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:11 PM

Sam, I don't agree with hodos like that.

we shall see.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:13 PM

what do you mean chris? as in the hodos will keep things discrete regardless of if the cap erodes or not?

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:14 PM

Take a look at the Lake charles sounding from 12 Z

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:17 PM

This is way further east than the instability will be though

and south for that matter

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:18 PM

now look at FWD

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:18 PM

the forecast shear will not be nearly as strong by 20Z

I see what youy mean with the heavy shear profile now but it's unlikely to look like that by 20Z

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:19 PM

storm motion vectors will help keep anvils from interacting regardless of cap.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:20 PM

im not jus ttalking about storm interaction, I'm saying if there was zero cap everything would grow upscale pretty quickly because of the amount of instability

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:21 PM

not without leading supercells.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:30 PM

cell just now at 52 kft

N of college station

What was that about instability near lake charles?

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:40 PM

SBCAPE of around 1700 in that area

plenty for severe tstorms for sure

but i wasn't referring to the lake charles area as out of any instability, i was saying out of the maximized instability on the dryline

actually the severe warned cell is in an area of less than 1000 cape looking at mesoanalysis

note that the current shear tells a very different story especially at 0-1 km

the shear near the dryline is much more impressive than the models were showing as of now, not sure how that could change in the next couple hours

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:45 PM

Looks like the beginnings of an attempted cu field west of DFW/Denton

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:45 PM

yep i was seeing that too. definitely going to be interesting to see where the cap breaks in that

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:46 PM

Going to be a painful decision.

I'm usually pretty patient though

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:47 PM

where are you now shane

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:47 PM

Fort Worth

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:47 PM

so is the ok potential out of play for you then?

Michael Beard (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:47 PM

@Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL). What am i suppose to be damning?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:47 PM

Not really, but I'm not interested in SE OK

And I don't feel OK has any better shot of a chaseable sup than N TX

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:48 PM

LOL beard and no i was referring to you saying last night that the dryline wasn't the main event when it was pretty much the only event

everything else is going to be a blob further east today

I thought that was already anticipated by most

Michael Beard (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:49 PM

The main event was suppose to be this morning. But that s#&t the bed. The 2nd was going to be the dryline.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:49 PM

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) I don't feel one has a better shot than the other but we don't really know yet. If i was chasing I'd be near Gainesville TX or something of the like waiting to see if a particular storm matures

the main event was never supposed to be this morning if you're talking about tornadoes afaik

the reason for the upgrade yesterday to enhanced was because of the sharpening forecast instability on the dryline

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:49 PM

That was the original plan, but since making that plan I've seen indications there could be development further south. It's not too far away to make a move north.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:50 PM

very true shane.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:50 PM

Plus, if I have options other than the river area, I usually opt for those because of inevitable crossing/road issues.

But the SOTD might go right up west of there while I'm still sitting here LOL.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:50 PM

I don't see development much further south than, say, hillsboro though (edited)

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:50 PM

Chasing, man.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:51 PM

and on a day like this it's easier to go south than north imo

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:51 PM

I hate going south

Michael Beard (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:51 PM

Shane check your inbox

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:51 PM

I almost always position to have to go north. I want clear air as much as possible.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:51 PM

Going south sucks

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:52 PM

core punching sucks, but in terms of time to get to a storm, with NE storm motions, yes

that being said the storm motions today have changed

261 means it'll probably be easier going north through clear air

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:53 PM

I'm gonna sit tight for now

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:55 PM

I was going to chase these messy storms NE of College Station but I’m sitting at the intersection for I-45 North thinking I’m gonna shoot up and give NTX a run today

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:55 PM

intrigued by the Milano cell...

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 12:56 PM

which cell is that chris

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:57 PM

just west of college station

tx

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:57 PM

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 12:57 PM

we might find out how capped Brazos really is

still

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:00 PM

Nu cu development southward down that same exisiting line.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:02 PM

Yup

I'm pretty comfy here at my desk, I'll probably leave around 2-2:30

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:07 PM

First echo near Jacksboro?

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:08 PM

Could be

We'll see how it does

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:09 PM

Might be a glitch.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:10 PM

yep, disappeared next scan

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:12 PM

You can see that narrow corridor of instability on the surface map, as advertised by the NAM. Those 80s along the DL and just east are extremely skinny....east of 35 you still have low 70s and even some upper 60s.

Makes me wonder if storms are gonna outrun their instability corridor before/not long after they mature

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 22-Apr-20 01:13 PM

It was mid 70s but cloudy coming up 35 from Temple to FW

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:17 PM

It's certainly a possibility

Michael Beard (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:37 PM

As long as they stay locked to the dryline they'll be fine. If they pull away they'll just be hailers.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:41 PM

Watch should be coming pretty soon

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 22-Apr-20 01:42 PM

Hoping dryline stays further west than models indicate for a longer period. If not, my chase chances are probably screwed.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 01:43 PM

How's that?

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 22-Apr-20 01:44 PM

I have a work meeting at 3:00 so I won't be able to leave until 3:30. And it's 2 hours to Ardmore if I book it.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:01 PM

The anvil level winds are insane. Those tops are getting shredded lol.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 22-Apr-20 02:08 PM

dryline slow down please

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:19 PM

I don't think it's going to.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 02:19 PM

even if the dryline doesn't slow down heat recovery will gradually happen to the east

but that's what i was talking about earlier about storms possibly dying by sundown

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:20 PM

That instability corridor gets smashed the further north you go. It looks to my eye like the OK storms are gonna run into stable air eventually, sooner than later. Down in TX the instability pool is wider

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 02:25 PM

I get the feeling a lot of chasers are going to go after the Oklahoma storms, watch them die and then have to scramble south into texas to try to catch the best cell of the day

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:26 PM

That's why I'm just hanging out at home

Not planning on going any further south than I already am

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:28 PM

This is starting to look like a real squeeze play. Typically the DL bulge is where you want to be, but that's with an open warm sector that's not comprimised.

CC east of the DL is really starting to play into this

It's very early, but this DL just keeps coming, maybe faster than the CC can move

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:31 PM

CC?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:34 PM

Tornado Watch

I was beginning to wonder if they were going to issue one.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:35 PM

Oh gotcha

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 02:35 PM

still wondering what cc means

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 22-Apr-20 02:35 PM

Yup my CB just kicked over to wx band for the watch

Shane means cloud cover by CC

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:37 PM

Sorry Ben, I thought you wer asking about the radar term CC

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:37 PM

Oh nah I'm very familiar with that

Cloud cover makes sense, I'm sure i've referred to it as CC before but my mind was blanking

I'm thinking I may head to Dentonish area

Gets me further west and out of the metro, but not so far north that I end up regretting it

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Apr-20 02:41 PM

Some areas under both a TOA and SVA rn lol

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:41 PM

Denton is not a bad call

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 02:49 PM

Alrighty, off I go

If you guys see anything I may not catch cause I'm driving, you're more than welcome to ping me

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 22-Apr-20 02:50 PM

i got you ben

good luck!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 03:02 PM

I think that new batch of cu flying in from the west may be the show

It's moving into the max cape spike

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 22-Apr-20 03:05 PM

Yes I like north of DFW on I-35. Might take until there for storms to fully root and snag the straight south wind. Then hope it's before the jungle.

Might consider just north of Red River. Stay near I-35 or other river crossing until cell selection is locked in.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 03:21 PM

Oh yeah. Nice and clear.

85F

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 03:49 PM

Ben you got a cooler for our hail?

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 03:54 PM

I wish! Do have a ruler though

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 22-Apr-20 03:58 PM

Oh so you're just gonna tease

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 04:06 PM

Not if I blue sky bust

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 22-Apr-20 04:06 PM

US-75 out of Dallas at 4pm. That's unbelievable! Heck, maybe I can chase Atlanta tomorrow, lol! (edited)

2

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 04:12 PM

PGBT between 75 and 35 but close!

It's easy for sure

2

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 22-Apr-20 06:20 PM

Matthew - 0 Tornadoes - 2 Had two great opportunities near mill creek and wapuncka, but chaser convergence and HP ruined it

Jason Myers (Norman, OK) 22-Apr-20 06:24 PM

Bagged 2 tornadoes today. Got the Springer-Gene Autry tor and then got very close to the Wapanucka tornado as it crossed OK48.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 22-Apr-20 06:28 PM

We got caught up in chaser convergence right as soon as we got into Wapanucka

Jason Myers (Norman, OK) 22-Apr-20 06:41 PM

We worked our way to the front so we only had one car in front of us at the stop sign. We actually went too far north and then had to backtrack once we got visual... then we had to move 200 yards down the road to avoid being hit.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 22-Apr-20 06:43 PM

The one in mill creek had us on edge, rotation took a hard right and passed right over us, we were expecting it to go north a bit

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 22-Apr-20 06:55 PM

Convergence sounds like May 20 Oklahoma. Southeast Texas cell remains intense, but visibility is questionable there. 6:49 pm still a debris ball. (edited)

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 22-Apr-20 07:53 PM

Photo from Val castors stream East of Mill creek. This is the one we were a mile away from but didn’t have a road to take us East to it

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 08:02 PM

Was that on the middle storm?

I stayed south and had fun getting whacked with some RFD and running out of road before heading home

No tornadoes for me but got some decent structure pics and was home before 8

I'd be mad if I'd driven to Kansas for that but no complaints here

Jason Myers (Norman, OK) 22-Apr-20 08:20 PM

That was middle storm. Road network was a huge problem today.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 22-Apr-20 08:36 PM

Agreed @Jason Myers (Norman, OK)

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 08:40 PM

Radar coverage and bad cell service didn't help

I knew the road network wasn't gonna be great going into it, but I was hoping not to have to hug the river

Ah well, I had a good time, learned a few things

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Apr-20 08:44 PM

Congrats to all who managed to bag a tube today.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 08:45 PM

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) Where'd you end up? Saw somebody that looked like it might be you

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:10 PM

The storm where there weren't any tornadoes while we had our very few actual decent views.

Like I said this morning "I'll probably drive to Gainesville and bust."

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:13 PM

What kind of car do you drive?

That makes two of us

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:19 PM

2001 camry, white

But I did find a river crossing I didnlt know existed

Quite by accident

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 22-Apr-20 09:20 PM

US 377?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:20 PM

Carpenter's Bluff bridge

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:20 PM

Haha was this you?

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:20 PM

Yep

Son of a bitch lol

4

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Apr-20 09:21 PM

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:21 PM

I pulled up right as you were packing up

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:22 PM

BTW, did you notice that lowered area well east of us? Some chaser got a tornado NW of Paris from this storm

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:22 PM

I did, kind of in the back?

I thought about going for it but there wasn't enough road

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:23 PM

Yeah, that's why we stopped. I swear this was a repeat of our 5-9-16 chase. Same damn thing. took the southern storm, fought the river and shitty roads, then right after we got cut off, it goes bonkers (edited)

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:24 PM

Yeah it'd be one thing if there just weren't any tors

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:24 PM

I can;t buy any luck the past few years

This shit used to be easy lol

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:24 PM

But this was just a screw up on my part

Well hey, plains season is just getting started

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:24 PM

Not much you could've done differnt other than target a different storm, and that was pretty much impossible

I can;t leave a storm in front of me to chase a warning, not in my DNA.

But it was obvious pretty early on our storm didn;t have "that look" to it in the early half of its life.

Yep, on to the next one.

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:28 PM

I was late to the party which didn't help

Otherwise I MAY have had the foresight to go for the Ardmore cell

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:29 PM

We rolled into Gainesville right as that thing was getting started.....had to stop for a bathroom break for the woman (smdh) (edited)

Chasing with women is (looks around the room) such a pain in the ass sometimes. That cost us 10 minutes.

1

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:29 PM

I was still in Denton as it was going north of Gainesville

Booked it up 35 then across 82

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:30 PM

Once I have a storm in front of me I forget other storms. But when I saw all the others getting t-warned I figured ours was too

They were all so damn close

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:30 PM

Me too

The bad radar spot didn't help either

I gave up on that and just used visual clues but that stopped working once I got hailed on

2

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:32 PM

At one point we had no radar, we couldn't see, and I didnt know where we were or what direction we were going. I was just taking roads that went the way we needed to go. Got into some Deliverance type spots crossing the river....jesus christ. I could hear banjos (edited)

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:33 PM

Yeah that's a weird place

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:34 PM

I should've known to go across the river to start, but I stubbornly stuck to my target

I only typed that once, and it took forever to show up

I should've known to go across the river to start, but I stubbornly stuck to my target

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Apr-20 09:35 PM

I think Discord just had a brain fart

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:35 PM

It did

Ben Riggs (Richardson, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:35 PM

I was hoping for more north texas action, but we still did better than any chasers that got baited by the HRRR

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 22-Apr-20 09:36 PM

Peter is talking about it in VC

I almost decided to stay home and wait for the "DFW" storm later on. Glad I decided not to, but I waited too long.

This server is screwed up

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Apr-20 11:01 PM

LOL

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 23-Apr-20 03:58 PM

Looking back on yesterday, was a little to close for comfort with this one

it decided to take a hard East turn instead of the northeast route

Ivy MacDaniel (Clarksville, TN) 23-Apr-20 05:10 PM

Oops.. Glad you're ok.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 23-Apr-20 05:14 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Apr-20 03:53 AM

Dang guys. Glad you made it out ok.