Stormtrack - 4-7-20_great-lakes_atlantic-ave

GrayGhost 05-Apr-20 03:33 AM

@JT Ask and you shall receive

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Apr-20 03:36 AM

poof

JT 05-Apr-20 03:41 AM

Heck yeahhh

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Apr-20 03:44 AM

shouldn't you guys be filling this images and stuff? I'm just saying, cause I don't see anything? You guys are slipping.

GrayGhost 05-Apr-20 03:47 AM

I'm surprised I haven't already seen an Outlook

JT 05-Apr-20 03:50 AM

I mean it’s 5 am so I was gonna save it for tomorrow

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 05-Apr-20 08:22 AM

ChasingTheMeso.com 05-Apr-20 08:54 AM

https://tenor.com/view/bored-tired-boring-sleepy-bedtime-gif-13658021

RTC 05-Apr-20 09:00 AM

https://media.tenor.com/images/6dd81a07967d385d19486e82da52c282/tenor.gif

ChasingTheMeso.com 05-Apr-20 09:07 AM

My logic > If the risk isn't in KS/OK/TX the setup is boring. Sounds like a healthy way to look at it. lol.

RTC 05-Apr-20 09:14 AM

What if it's a superoutbreak in the middle of North Dakota

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 05-Apr-20 10:59 AM

Hey, with COVID, I will absolutely take what I can get! Yall just jealous u can't chase.

benr1001 05-Apr-20 10:59 AM

Dixie setups before plains setups make for good armchair chasing

That'll be after this one but this should do nicely too

JT 05-Apr-20 11:52 AM

ChasingTheMeso.com 05-Apr-20 11:57 AM

@prombomb (Lafayette, IN) I'm just jealous that Oklahoma Texas and Kansas haven't had a good setup yet. Everything has been crap so far. Still nice to get out of the house and chase though.

6

But, it is April.

JT 05-Apr-20 12:00 PM

Something that I’m not amused with is the shear with this event.

Very low tor probs if that keeps up but I don’t need tors to satisfy me

They did mention supercells in the discussion though and if one can make its way near me I’ll be more that happy

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 05-Apr-20 12:17 PM

@ChasingTheMeso.com This will be my 4th time chasing this year so far, lol. What a weird year

Morphtato 05-Apr-20 12:20 PM

NWS Grand Rapids seems to want a severe risk as well.

DTX not liking it as much

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 05-Apr-20 12:27 PM

NWS Indianapolis has very little on the subject, despite making up a large chunk of the slight risk area... I am honestly still not sure about the setup. NAM and GFS are still at odds a bit. Shear is definitely the biggest limiter.

Morphtato 05-Apr-20 12:36 PM

Agreed, I'm definitely gonna want to see some more agreement before I'm sold. Even then I don't see this as being a large tornado event by any means. Maybe something to get me out the house though, staying local of course.

RTC 05-Apr-20 12:37 PM

yeah, don't want chaser tattletale on your case

@Morphtato

2

Morphtato 05-Apr-20 12:43 PM

FWIW here's the 12z GFS over SW Lower MI.

^ I have a feeling that must be what GRR is referencing here.

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 05-Apr-20 12:49 PM

I honestly would be perfectly happy with driving an hour, then spending an hour watching a huge shelf cloud crawl its way across the flat landscape.

ChasingTheMeso.com 05-Apr-20 12:51 PM

@prombomb (Lafayette, IN) this early in the year? You're lucky as hell right now.

3

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 05-Apr-20 12:55 PM

Well, I have only been on 1 successful chase so far, but it was one heck of a year to move to IN, I'l tell ya

Anyways, time to stop moonlighting as a storm chaser and go back to my day job, doing homework...

JT 05-Apr-20 01:22 PM

NAM3k doesn’t convect during they day which brings to my attention the storm that it put over me during the morning

Is cloud cover going to screw it up like always?

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 05-Apr-20 01:23 PM

I haven't looked, but If that's a trend it'll be a issue

JT 05-Apr-20 01:51 PM

A speed max might break the cap they're mentioning in the late day hours leading to possible initiation (edited)

JT 05-Apr-20 04:08 PM

I feel like hail could be a big thing here

ChasingTheMeso.com 05-Apr-20 05:56 PM

RIP Tuesday according to the NAM 3km.

10

JT 05-Apr-20 07:22 PM

There’s still a chance of a jetmax breaking the cap

Angelo 05-Apr-20 11:09 PM

May chase just for the local fun. Haven’t gotten out at all so far this year and doesn’t seem like we can be too picky these days.

JT 06-Apr-20 10:19 AM

Lmao 12z hrrr

3

4

Over my county

Morphtato 06-Apr-20 10:21 AM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1247176336189218817?s=19

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

Watching an isolated #TORNADO threat that could come together tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon/evening across Lower MICHIGAN! HRRR model is showing a decent LLJ pop ahead of surface low. Lake Michigan sure is cold, but storms could fire off lake front @RadarOmega_WX @PivotalWeath...

JT 06-Apr-20 10:26 AM

Funnn

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 11:44 AM

I honestly don't buy the HRRR or the NAM. There doesn't seem to be enough low level helicity for a large tor event (nor enough low level CAPE that far north) and there will be far too much sun poking through the clouds to not break the cap. I am also unsure about crossing the border into MI and then getting back in to IN, given COVID. IDK how the state patrols of both states are currently behaving with regards to pulling outofstaters over.

JT 06-Apr-20 01:04 PM

But the lake breeze can enhance that probability

CanadianStormChaser 06-Apr-20 01:21 PM

big boi slight

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 01:26 PM

I think the spc just hoisted the white flag... They have no clue either. lol

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 06-Apr-20 02:21 PM

Jesus

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 02:32 PM

@prombomb (Lafayette, IN) I can confirm that they really aren't pulling people over

I am considering going to the tri-state area (OH, IN, MI) and evaluating from there

But it still isn't enough to get me out of the door. 12z HRRR is trash

AverageBreh 06-Apr-20 02:47 PM

Thread title changed to reflect.

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 02:48 PM

yeah how tf do you even name this haha

AverageBreh 06-Apr-20 02:48 PM

One of the very few times we've named by region on this server. (edited)

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 02:57 PM

that slight is huge

overall my main concern for tomorrow is capping and a source of lift

I want to see a nice surface trough dig in, otherwise it's a nocturnal lightning event and nothing else

Angelo 06-Apr-20 03:53 PM

You coming to the blue sky bust party Dean?

4

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 03:54 PM

latest CAM runs are in general agreement with some scattered discrete cells in Ohio

But I think CAMs are generally overdoing thermos

AverageBreh 06-Apr-20 03:57 PM

Not highly likely, but maybe? Depends on how far it is away from my home. Don't want to get reported, after all.

Morphtato 06-Apr-20 03:57 PM

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:03 PM

Dean this could be Shelby 2.0 if warm sector gets some solid lift

JT 06-Apr-20 04:35 PM

Please shortwave do something

Or surface heating

Everything is in place except a lifting mechanism

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:40 PM

NAM is super sensitive to 500 mb relative humidity being low, and it it very low. Remember, NAM is used primarily for tropical weather, not necessarily convective weather. All of the models are showing ~ 0 for Lid Strength Index, so I don't really feel like capping is a problem. Please correct me if I am wrong tho, I really do want to learn.

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:41 PM

Models generally agree on the cap not being an issue. My issue is having a source of lift more specifically

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:41 PM

And its going to be nice and sunny tomorrow through IN

^

Thermal heating

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:42 PM

whether that will be enough or not is the question

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:44 PM

HRRR 18z run shows essentially zero cloud cover.

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:44 PM

If thermal heating is enough to erode the cap, I wonder if we just get a mess

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:44 PM

the other models show anywhere from scattered to broken cloud cover

well the lapse rates are through the roof

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:44 PM

just a little extra forcing and it could go off

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:45 PM

so whatever does break teh cap is going to be a beefy mutha

and moving nice and slow

(for a chanbe)

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:46 PM

yeah the afternoon round definitely has a chance of doing something but it is probably more likely that it holds off then the big QLCS plows through overnight

I still think models may be overdoing thermos

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:48 PM

Well, I can't deploy until 20z, so I sure hope we get something that isn't too far to drive.

u think mid 60's dews are too high?

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:48 PM

mid 60s? absolutely

I mean I hope I get proved wrong

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:49 PM

actually, low 60's

The temperature is going to be mid 70's, so pretty warm for this time of year

with sun

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:49 PM

I think 58-62 is most likely

surface temps probably around 70 in the TA

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:50 PM

whats your TA?

I am still holding out on being able to stay instate (IN)

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:51 PM

FIndlay, OH for now but that's still TBD

Don't want to commit too far away with the risk of a cap bust

that'll give me plenty of time to reposition if needed

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:52 PM

I think the NAM is blowing the cap thing way out of proportion

(imo)

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:52 PM

not in Ohio

NAM has up to 2500 uncapped SBCAPE

you know, if we get an OFB from the morning junk...

3

2

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:54 PM

I am not sold on the thermos that far east, but I defs think they will be good across IN

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:54 PM

that's what I've been saying

I think thermos are being overdone

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 04:55 PM

For once I really want an outflow boundary, common convection overnight, do your thing!!! Marginal risk we all rootin for ya!

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 04:56 PM

haha yeah this is just overall quite a conditional setup

if afternoon busts, then I'm positioning for QLCS lightning show at night

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 09:08 PM

Can anyone explain to me why the HRRR is showing a large blob of mid 50's dews, surrounded by low to mid 60's dews? If it is most likely wrong, why is it showing it? if it is not wrong, what could be driving that? If this isn't the right channel for this discussion, please lets take it to the appropriate channel.

Jonny Glessner 06-Apr-20 09:10 PM

HRRR and dewpoints

Not a great pair

I wouldn’t look into it much

monsoonman1 06-Apr-20 09:11 PM

It could be moisture mixing out

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 09:11 PM

mixing out meaning eroding the cap?

like vertical mixing?

monsoonman1 06-Apr-20 09:11 PM

Haven’t looked but if you see a big area of lower dews then that could be a reason

Yeah, vertical mixing

If the moisture isn’t deep enough that can happen

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 09:12 PM

well, thats good then right?

or is it bad because its suggesting that there isn't enough advection bringing in new moisture?

monsoonman1 06-Apr-20 09:13 PM

Yes, it is not good

RTC 06-Apr-20 09:13 PM

prombomb (Lafayette, IN) 06-Apr-20 09:15 PM

well, fortunately I am pretty much right in the middle of the original slight risk area, so I can just sit tight and wait for something to initiate.

RTC 06-Apr-20 09:16 PM

Kinda expecting a QLCS fest tomorrow tbh

4

JT 06-Apr-20 09:19 PM

^

JT 06-Apr-20 11:49 PM

Morphtato 07-Apr-20 12:52 AM

GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, WITH AT LEAST SOME UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH THROUGH THE EVENING CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE UNCLEAR, DUE TO THE FORECAST VEERED NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS, AND RESULTANT LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED CLOCKWISE TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

JT 07-Apr-20 01:02 AM

Yeet (edited)

5

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 07-Apr-20 07:58 AM

Small 5% added in southern MI

Sig Hail was also shifted slightly west to now include parts of Chicagoland and northwestern IN

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 07-Apr-20 08:26 AM

come on baby lets get some big hail today

JT 07-Apr-20 08:34 AM

Nice

JT 07-Apr-20 08:52 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 09:01 AM

@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) He needs it...Verify.

JT 07-Apr-20 10:38 AM

Heading to Mansfield soon for a wf play

AverageBreh 07-Apr-20 10:46 AM

Best of luck, breh. This thing's looking so snoozer out this way that I'm not even leaving the house.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 07-Apr-20 10:47 AM

i smell disappointment today....some squall action

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 10:56 AM

Squally, get some shelf pictures James. Wind biggest threat, straight-line. Some hailers, the wind should be the biggest threat. Spinny bois, I dunno?

Morphtato 07-Apr-20 11:24 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_dtx/status/1247560840477171713?s=19

IEMBot DTX (@iembot_dtx)

SPC issues Day 1 Enhanced Convective Risk at Apr 7, 16:22z for DTX https://t.co/EHzH4GoxMs

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 11:25 AM

Page error, lol.

Morphtato 07-Apr-20 11:26 AM

2

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 07-Apr-20 11:26 AM

30% sig hail

Morphtato 07-Apr-20 11:27 AM

30% wind too

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 07-Apr-20 11:27 AM

Woo

JT 07-Apr-20 11:27 AM

Oh boy

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 07-Apr-20 11:29 AM

all day

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 11:30 AM

@JT well, we will see won't you?

JT 07-Apr-20 11:30 AM

Yes sir

AverageBreh 07-Apr-20 11:30 AM

Well, this opens up Hailtrace sales opportunities in Detroit, Toledo, and Cleveland.

JT 07-Apr-20 11:30 AM

Convoying with 3 people

5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 11:31 AM

@JT stay safe and smart.

JT 07-Apr-20 11:32 AM

Always

#1 priority

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 07-Apr-20 11:33 AM

lol yes the roofing industry is rapidly learning you can contact people thru means other than door to door

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 07-Apr-20 11:35 AM

@Norman Stay safe as well, good luck, don't get cored

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 07-Apr-20 11:38 AM

Especially with these expected hailers

Zicroh 07-Apr-20 11:45 AM

Still wondering if I should just stay home or if I should go a bit more east into southern MI right now

JT 07-Apr-20 11:59 AM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) Target area changed to Findlay cause of daytime heating

We don’t feel confident about the afternoon round

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 12:00 PM

ok stay safe again. Can't say it enough.

JT 07-Apr-20 12:01 PM

Always the plan

Stonewolf (ᏅᏳ ᏀᏯ) 07-Apr-20 12:01 PM

Go get them @JT

JT 07-Apr-20 12:01 PM

Thanks Josh

You too

Stonewolf (ᏅᏳ ᏀᏯ) 07-Apr-20 12:02 PM

Np, nah I will be chasing from “home” I am near Huntington WV with my GF’s parents

JT 07-Apr-20 12:04 PM

Oof

Hopefully you can see some lightning tonight

Stonewolf (ᏅᏳ ᏀᏯ) 07-Apr-20 12:04 PM

Ya I hope

I mean I will be watching radar heavily

Wishing I could go out, hopefully I can see some structure or something depending on time

Morphtato 07-Apr-20 01:58 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1247599591563726848

NWS SPC (@NWSSPC)

1:58pm CDT #SPC_MD 0294 , #mdwx #vawx #dcwx #wvwx, https://t.co/jX29EBUrPR

JT 07-Apr-20 03:28 PM

Michigan time

AverageBreh 07-Apr-20 03:36 PM

You chasing with Jonny?

Morphtato 07-Apr-20 03:55 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSGaylord/status/1247628592252473344

NWS Gaylord (@NWSGaylord)

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin until 10 PM EDT

Missed it by one county

Hexzie 07-Apr-20 03:58 PM

Wisconsin with the troll nado?

JT 07-Apr-20 04:07 PM

Yes sir @AverageBreh

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Apr-20 04:18 PM

never warned.

TJ 07-Apr-20 05:57 PM

AverageBreh 07-Apr-20 06:11 PM

I recognize that interior. All around you is my handiwork.

Hexzie 07-Apr-20 06:46 PM

Orangeville, IL

2

Jim Martin 07-Apr-20 07:25 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSCLE/status/1247676077473849344

NWS Cleveland (@NWSCLE)

A little #GeeWiz #weather #science stuff here. Forecast model upper air sounding near NW #Ohio shows huge CAPE (potential storm energy) in the hail growth zone of a storm updraft, 1000 Jules and up to 800 Jules of downdraft CAPE = VERY BIG HAIL and WIND threat! #OHwx #NWS

smok 07-Apr-20 10:49 PM

Getting a little windy west of Akron

AverageBreh 07-Apr-20 10:49 PM

Going hunting, boiis

AverageBreh 08-Apr-20 12:09 AM

Well, that was grungy

Holly Pajak 08-Apr-20 12:27 AM

I think I stole all the lightning from the storms while they were up here

WeathermanEd (Chicago) 08-Apr-20 07:52 AM

7

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 08-Apr-20 10:47 AM

yesterday was a good time

JT 08-Apr-20 12:18 PM

I enjoyed it

Morphtato 08-Apr-20 12:21 PM

Glad y'all got a good show. It all went around me

Morphtato 08-Apr-20 12:37 PM

https://twitter.com/weathermankeith/status/1247941436542255104

Keith Thompson (@weathermankeith)

STORM DAMAGE! In addition to large hail, last night's storms also packed quite a punch from strong winds. Check out these scenes of wind damage in Tekonsha (Calhoun County). Thanks to Jennifer for sharing. Glad all were safe! @NWSGrandRapids @NWSIWX

CanadianStormChaser 08-Apr-20 12:38 PM

oh my...

Morphtato 08-Apr-20 01:52 PM

https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/1247894487348563971/photo/1

Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx)

Some pretty impressive hail swaths evolving from multiple long-tracked thunderstorm cells on April 7/8. Several of these swaths impacted areas with ample exposure. This will be an expensive event.

3

<<𝕭𝖔𝖇>> ボブ 08-Apr-20 01:54 PM

https://tenor.com/view/crab-safe-dance-gif-13211112 NOBODY: HAIL COMPANIES: (edited)

14

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 08-Apr-20 02:00 PM

truth

ArkansasCowboy 08-Apr-20 02:37 PM

My old boss does Hail repair on the side. He'd be doing that exact dance right now. lol

Morphtato 08-Apr-20 02:53 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSCLE/status/1247975436199571456

NWS Cleveland (@NWSCLE)

An NWS Survey has confirmed damage consistent of an EF-1 tornado with maximum winds of 100 mph. The tornado began in Lorain County and tracked southeast into Medina County last night. The tornado lifted just south of the city of Medina. #OHwx