Stormtrack - 5-13-2020_tx_ok_ks

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-May-20 12:56 PM

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 09-May-20 01:04 PM

Keeping an eye on this one and will likely make a play from Austin.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-May-20 01:04 PM

if that dry persist into TX yeah I would also.

The moisture will sure be there further south you are. WOnder about shear?

btw, KS and OK are open no restraints other then SD.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 09-May-20 01:07 PM

Been watching this setup for a week, mainly because of a forecasting challenge that I am apart of for Meteorology class... Dews around 70 degrees, with a precise dryline in Western Oklahoma. Instability reaching into the mid to high 3000s ranging from Southern Oklahoma to Southern Nebraska. 18k above the earths surface, shear doesn't look that impressive. Mid 30's to mid 40's. However, Lapse Rates are there. Continue to watch this setup as the NAM/NAM 3km comes into range. Hoping for consistency. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-May-20 01:08 PM

NAM12k tonight.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 09-May-20 01:13 PM

Forgot to mention: Cloud cover looks to be over Oklahoma most of the day, this Could inhibit radiation from being able to reach the ground. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-May-20 02:55 PM

I will be driving down from IN with my chase partner. First time out on the plains. We are going to chase everything from Wed - Sat, then head home for the weekend and reload for end of May madness

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Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 09-May-20 03:04 PM

i've never been out to the plains either, and i'm considering heading out as well. i just need to get out lol. i wonder how hard it is to find a spot on the plains to set up a tent for a night

i'm not wanting to go to a hotel in this pandemic, and sleeping in the back seat of my car isn't super pleasant

Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) 09-May-20 04:55 PM

@Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) it’s not hard I’ll be sleeping in a roof top tent on my truck. State parks are usually pretty cheap. They usually have bathrooms and sometimes showers. Be prepared to have to give them your social # ( @Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) ) knows all about that. I guess just so they know your not like a wanted felon or something haha. Back in 2018 I spent 3 nights in the back of my Honda Civic haha. Not the best but it’s better than the price of hotels! (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-May-20 05:53 PM

I will be tent camping with my buddy

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 09-May-20 05:54 PM

Thanks for the info!! That's cool you can sleep elevated on your truck. I've camped at state parks a handful of times during road trips but those were always in forested areas. Are there many places to camp out on the plains?

I've never had to give an SS number to camp though, that's weird

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-May-20 08:14 PM

@Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) plenty of places to camp out in. Just be ready for anything. All I need is water, bed, soap, towel and firepit. I can get by on the rest.

Be ready for BATHROOMS NOT AVAILABLE TO PUBLIC. While on the road or chasing. A lot of places here. That used to have bathrooms open aren't any more. I have no idea on Rest Areas? Maybe @Drew Terril (OKC, OK) can give us a some help or anyone else who knows? (edited)

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 09-May-20 08:49 PM

If the bathrooms are closed to the public, then I am pissing in the parking lot!!

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 09-May-20 08:50 PM

The 18z GFS has shown consistency with the 12z (as expected) The newest 00z run will come out shortly. The 18z shows dews consisting of 67-70 in almost all areas in Oklahoma. Moisture looks about the same as the 12z run, except the 18z run has backed off of Southern Nebraska a little bit pushing more moisture South of the line, however, there is an area in Southern Nebraska with low 60 dews. The GFS has backed off slightly on the instabilty for Northern Kansas into Southern Nebraska. The greatest instability still looks to be in Western Oklahoma, Northern Texas, and Southern Kansas, maxing out at around 3900 J kg in some areas. The 18z GFS still has horrible wind speeds 18k above the earths surface, however, it has stayed consistent with an area in NW OK between the 12z and 18z, even though the speeds max out at around 45kts. Not to amazing. Steep lapse rates are still visible on the 18z. With all of this being said, Supercells could still go up on the dryline as there is some evidence that supports it.

Even though I just wrote all of that ^ I am still not set on Wed until the NAM and NAM 3km come into range.

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Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 09-May-20 08:53 PM

I have deliveries arriving here sometime on Tuesday. So if I head down for this event, I wouldn't be leaving here until at least late afternoon/early evening on Tuesday.

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Red Eye Road Trip!

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 09-May-20 08:53 PM

I mean, Wed looks good, but I never get interested in severe weather days until the NAM 3km begins to come into range, because models can easily change, but when I see consistency that is always good and the GFS has been consistent since Wed the 6th. (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-May-20 08:54 PM

haha, capping machine goes brrrrrrr

However definitely been seeing numerous soundings with steep dry-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates for if storms go up along the dryline. With the instability in place and such, could definitely get some big hailers but GFS is rather lackluster with wind profiles, however it is consistent in definitely plenty of instability on the surface and elevated regardless if storms break the cap or not, at least with quick looks at the GFS, surface seems to be capped for the most part (edited)

However I haven't looked much into this event as I'm going on vacation, but quick glances show some potential there, but waiting for CAM's to get a better idea on what to generally expect

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 09-May-20 09:03 PM

Thanks for restating everything I said. @Cameron (Fortson, GA)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-May-20 09:03 PM

pretty much what has already been said, but 0Z GFS caps much of the surface based instability along the dryline

Ngl unless something changes, I'll move on to the next "chasing" event at home (edited)

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 09-May-20 11:17 PM

Even if convection is able to sneak through that strong cap...most stronger upper lev support is up in Nebraska. Pretty abysmal down near the Oklahoma /KS border where you'd want something to pop. Thus making speed sheer pretty bleh. Slow moving hailer if something could go.

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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-May-20 04:31 AM

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 10-May-20 10:27 AM

Yeah....not real impressed upon my first glance of Wednesday. I tend to agree with Jake's assessment.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:31 AM

Happy Mothers Day to all of the mothers out there. The newest NAM model run is finally out and we are finally able to see what the NAM is thinking for chance of severe weather Wed. The 12z NAM and 06z GFS are extremely different at this time. The GFS is still holding high instability reaching into the mid to uper 3,000 J kg, with West Centeral Oklahoma seeing around 4,000 J kg. The newest GFS has also backed off on the amount of instability that will be present in Southern Nebraska and Northern Kansas. The 06z GFS run has brought moisture back into Southern Nebraska with dews maxing out around 61 degrees. The 06z GFS still has a precise dryline in the Texas Panhandle as expected. The highest dews at this time appear to be in Central and Northern Oklahoma maxing out at around 71 degrees. The 06z GFS is still being consistent on horrible winds 18k above the surface. At this time the GFS still has storms that go up only achieving winds of up to 47kts in some areas. The 06z GFS still has pretty good lapse rates however. Onto the 12z NAM and the differences between the GFS and NAM. The 12z NAM has confined the Instabilty from Southern Texas to Northern Oklahoma, maxing out at around 4,000 J kg ranging from NW TX to Central OK. The NAM has also backed off on where the moisture will be, rather than having the moisture all the way in Nebraska as the GFS is suggesting, it looks like the best moisture will only go as far as Northern OK maxing out at around 70 degrees in Central OK (Both the GFS and NAM agree on this at this time) When it comes to the winds 18k above the surface, the NAM shows winds maxing out at around 36kts. These are absolutely horrible winds if you are looking for tornadoes. Both the GFS and NAM agree that cloud cover could be an issue throughout the day. This could limit radiation from being able to reach the ground more efficently. What this means is that the instability might not be as high on chase day. Still, we have to watch it regardless. (edited)

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Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 10-May-20 10:53 AM

Thanks for the solid write up!

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 11:03 AM

Thanks! I love forecasting, so I thought that I'd share what I see and look at when I am thinking about chasing! (edited)

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 01:38 PM

Come tomorrow I will be submitting my forecasting analysis for the forecasting challenge that is being put on by my Meteorology classes that I am in. So I have paid extremely close attention to the trends and such, more than I have in the past. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-May-20 01:44 PM

From SPC : `Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong moisture return is anticipated into the central Plains on D4/Wednesday, modifying the dry continental air mass previously in place. Moderate to strong instability will develop across OK and KS ahead of a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough expected to move into the central Plains Wednesday evening. Supercell wind profiles will be in place and the potential for all severe hazards will exist from the far eastern TX Panhandle/western OK into central KS from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.`

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 03:00 PM

Good to see that the SPC was thinking the same with supercells still being able to go up as I stated last night.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 10-May-20 09:57 PM

Hey Mike, how do you like the 0z NAM run? It moved it up north where GFS has been wanting to put it. Also, some decent 1km helicity along the frontal boundary there.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 10-May-20 09:58 PM

I need to look at some of the 0z NAM. Itching to chase

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:06 PM

I was actually just looking at it. Without getting into a long deep analysis like this morning as most of the data hasn't changed drastically, I will say this. Wed could be a nice chase day. Most likely wind/hail will be the primary threat with a lower tornado risk. Regardless, all modes are possible Wed, BUT the NAM is still extremely consistent with wind speeds 18k being in the 30s, while the GFS has pushed winds 18k above the surface into the lower 50kts in some areas. Still not that impressive in my opinion for tornadoes, but we do have the instability/dews. If those winds can peak just a little bit higher I believe that the tornado threat will go up. I still think storms that pop off the dryline could have tornado potential early on in it's life, but that window is limited. (edited)

I will have a waaayyy more detailed analysis tomorrow morning when the NAM 3km comes into play.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:08 PM

Agreed Mike, been looking at Wed, not really seeing much of a tornado threat except for initial convection

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:08 PM

That's what I was thinking Sasha.

The shear is absolutely horrible. (edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:09 PM

Honestly haven't been too interested in forecasting Wed, i've had several chances and just haven't done it lol

Idk, something about wednesday just bores me from a fcst perspective, but regardless could get a couple tubes from it

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:10 PM

I've been forced to look at Wed because of a forecasting challenge I am apart of for my Met class. lol. Most likely I wouldn't be focused on it much if it wasn't for that.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:10 PM

Understandable, good to look into events, even the more boring ones, just to get experience

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:12 PM

Bingggoooo. I've been forecasting since Feb 2017, and for the first time in a while because of this forecasting challenge, I have started to become more confident in my abilities to do long range forecasting. (I've been watching this setup for like 2 weeks now.) (edited)

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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:12 PM

Good to hear

Plus looking at events for a long period of time can give you an idea of model biases more than just looking every now and then

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:14 PM

Yeah, it is. lol. I used to start my forecasting for severe weather days like 6/7 days prior to the event, but now I've started to do it like 2/3 weeks out. lmao. At that point I'm just looking for trends, but with the 10+ people who now rely on me for severe weather updates, I might as well start getting used to long term forecasting rather than short term forecasting.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:15 PM

For some reason I usually do worse in the day 1-3 range than 4-8

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:15 PM

When I say long term, I don't mean like years lol. Cause I know that is generally what that term is meant by. I more so mean weeks.

When I get the event tackled down to 3 days, that's when I'm at my best I've noticed.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:16 PM

My best forecasting is usually day 3-6

Then day 1 is decent, because I base it entirely off obs

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:16 PM

As you should ^

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:16 PM

I'd say day 1 usually ends up being pretty good too

It's always nice to be right 5 days out though

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:17 PM

On the day of severe weather, the only weather model I look at is composite reflectivity, besides that, obs are the way to go.

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Yeah, it's pretty fun to nail a forecast down like 5 days out lol

People look at you like your superman or something and I'm just like... Nah, I'm just Mike

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:17 PM

Funny enough I expended the 15% severe risk on day 4 for 3/28 into iowa and illinois when the spc had a small contour in western MS

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 10:18 PM

Aye haha.

I love when my forecast matches up with what the SPC is thinking.

It's such a cool feeling.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 10:22 PM

Yesss

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 11:44 PM

Looked at the 00z suite, and I have to agree with most of the things Mike said, one thing to note is the NAM has been pretty inconsistent with dryline/warm front locations over the 3 runs it's been in range, however the GFS has been much more consistent, and resembles the 12z euro/ukmet, and the 00z GDPS much more than the NAM, so at this point I would consider the GFS solution most likely, which would mean KS is definitely in play here

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 10-May-20 11:48 PM

Unlike my earlier detailed analysis in the morning, I really didn't look at any other models at 0z besides The NAM. I'll give a more in-depth analysis tomorrow when the 3km is in range. Actually be able to use a Convection model. The types I like. (edited)

I'm also submitting my forecast for the forecast challenge on Wednesday. So I'm going to be like extremely glued to the monitor all day.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-May-20 11:53 PM

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 11-May-20 12:33 AM

Be sure to include a high risk in your predicted risk map

@Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 11-May-20 12:35 AM

@Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) I imagine if I do that my teacher will look at me like I'm an idiot. He'd probably be like. "You aced all your tests, and quizzes just to say that?? I'm disappointed in you." Lol But I would do the same if I was in that position. Lol. (edited)

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 11-May-20 12:35 AM

tell him you used Broyle’s equation to generate a high risk outlook

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 11-May-20 12:36 AM

Jeeze lol.

well if I do all of that, I can kiss any future television storm chasing deal goodbye. Because he works for a local news station.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 11-May-20 12:36 AM

Jk don’t do that, ace the forecast challenge. I’ve enjoyed reading your analysis lately

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 11-May-20 12:37 AM

@Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) thank you. I'm pretty confident. Not too overconfident, but this isn't anything new to me and I'm taking it extremely serious because I've waited alll my life to be able to show a legit meteorologist what I can do.

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 11-May-20 12:37 AM

@Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 11-May-20 01:14 AM

When the NAM has a may third analog thrown in

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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 11-May-20 01:34 AM

are we chasing in CO? LCL is high.

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More like Mtns. lol I just pulled a sounding kinda like this. But it was worse and I jumped at first then I got sad it was junk.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 11-May-20 11:14 AM

Good Monday morning ladies and gentleman... It's time to discuss Wed severe weather potential. For Day 3, the SPC has put a slight risk over a pretty large part of the United States. This risk ranges from NW TX into SW IA. For the most part, I will be focusing in on SW OK/NW TX as that looks to have the best chance for severe weather. The NAM 3km has finally come into range, allowing us to now compare the GFS/NAM/and NAM 3km, plus we now can get an idea for where storms have a chance of initiating thanks to the 3km. The NAM 3km 12z run shows the highest instability being in SW OK/NW TX. CAPE in this region looks to peak around 4,400 J kg in Collingsworth county in the Texas Panhandle. The 12z NAM still suggests that the highest amount of CAPE will be in Central Oklahoma maxing out at around 4,400 J kg in Logan county, Oklahoma. The GFS on the otherhand, completely disagrees with both the 3km and NAM. The GFS has now backed off a bunch on the available CAPE and still has CAPE extending as far as Northern Kansas, where values max out at around 3,660 J kg. Unlike the NAM where the dryline is a fine line going down the Texas Panhandle, the NAM 3km has a more messy dryline that extends Westward into Armstrong county, Texas. The 12z NAM still shows a well defined dryline extending as far Westward as Wheeler and Humphill counties, Texas. The NAM 3km is showing dews in the upper 60s that extends into Western Oklahoma, while the NAM shows dewpoints reaching into the lower 60s, with the highest amount being in Eastern Oklahoma. At this time I am confident that the best moisture will be in Western Oklahoma as models have trended that way for the most part. When we look at Bulk Shear, the 12z GFS has 3 areas in Oklahoma where winds will be around 50kts. The 12z NAM does agree with the GFS when it comes to Bulk Shear in NW OK, but besides that the NAM is in disagreeance with the GFS when it comes to available shear. The NAM 3km on the other hand, has a pretty good area of

Shear that actually extends Westward into the TX PNH. Finally, thanks to the NAM 3km, we are finally able to get a better idea as to where storms might initiate. Right now the NAM 3km wants storms to initiate in both Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, along with storms in NW TX. SW OK/TX PNH look to have very good ingredients overall. We also have to worry about capping, as models have shown a capped environment for most of Western Oklahoma./NW TX/TX PNH. I do believe that Wed is still mainly a hail threat, with a wind threat as well, BUT I still think storms that go up on the dryline when they first initiate could potentially have a tornado risk, but the window is still small.

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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 11-May-20 02:11 PM

Thanks Mike for your input. I like to add that gfs is still consistent in showing the SW flow with a low forming and meso. Plus a robust Dryline. If this is true and does set up. This will break the cap and come off the dryline into the warm sector. Coming off that dryline will give any Discrete Supercells what they need to be Tornadic cells. I do see the soundings and they paint a not so bright picture a cap in place. With just storms and hailers. You might have a chance at getting some ropes/tubes. Now if this happens on Wednesday. Look out Thursday, Friday and possible Saturday. You'll have boundaries sitting around from the stuff on Wednesday. Heating in place and boom it happens again. If blob fest or less happens on Wednesday will get nothing for severe on Thursday or any day that week. Something in the back off my head is telling me we are just on that edge (hint gfs). When I'm going over the models. I do think Panhandle of TX and OK on the border is the place to be as of right now.Will I go and give it a a chance. OH hell drive 1100 miles, I dunno?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 11-May-20 02:13 PM

Looks rather active, regardless Wednesday is gonna be bringing definitely some hailers for sure, but I mean since it's plains season, if you can take the chance, afford it, and spend the time chasing the active setup, I would, I wish I could but I'm still too young to go out that far nor am experienced enough. I'd do it depending on your circumstances, but since nothing much is even happening here mine as well if you play the cards right

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 11-May-20 02:18 PM

bout to make quite a bit of money chasing for KOCO this week lmao

also hailers for hail trace lol dont really need tubes to keep me happy anymore lol

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Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 11-May-20 06:05 PM

18z HRRRV4 is not showing the psuedo front/wind shift line across northern OK like the NAM had been showing. Shows unimpeded moisture return into central KS. Very capped still through 18z, but it will be interesting to see how the 0z falls in line with this. Even shows a dryline bulge near Med Lodge.

Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) 11-May-20 09:58 PM

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) Honestly chasing out there is way safer than our southern storms. the hardest part is driving the massive distance and then waiting. And then more driving when your out of position lol, would reccomend it through when you feel the slightest confident and are ready. The flatness of the great plains will take your breath away!

Also im looking to potentially head out later this coming weekend to setup for next weeks storms

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 11-May-20 09:59 PM

With time, problem was, I had a surgery on my chest as my chest cavity was collapsed and such

I have a bar in my chest, which will be in for 3 years, driving long distances causes the incisions to really bother me and causes a lot of pain, which is why I can't go super long distances

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 11-May-20 11:22 PM

I think I will go chase this storm since I am in Kansas City. It’s not too bad of a drive. I am not expecting too much, but it will be good practice for next weeks storms.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 12-May-20 12:12 AM

I’m debating chasing tomorrow

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 12-May-20 01:06 AM

Wind driven D2 upgrade to Enhanced. (edited)

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 12-May-20 01:21 AM

Not chasing tomorrow

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 01:25 AM

Why not?

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 12-May-20 09:24 AM

Doesn't look like we'll get any convection where'd you'd want it for tors in central KS near the progged dryline kink. Sfc winds will seemingly be much more backed there along the dryline along with better-ish upper level support. It looks to me like you'd want to stage somewhere from Canadian down to Childress. Maybe a brief tor or two around the border along the TX pan if the right mesoscale features permit.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 09:26 AM

Of course you won't in Central Kansas.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 10:17 AM

Forecasting challenge submitted for Wed for my class. Here's to hoping I win!

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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-May-20 10:40 AM

Good luck! @Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 10:40 AM

Good morning folks! 24 hours from now most of us will be getting ready for what should overall a good chase day. So let's talk about it. These past few days I have been comparing a bunch of models, but today we will mainly stick to the HRRR as we are just 24 hours or so from the event. First, we will start with the HRRR as the 12z run has allowed us to finally see what will be possible at 7pm. A Dryline is currently setup in New Mexico. Why does this matter? It matters because as the day progesses this dryline will slowly move into the Western Texas Panhandle where around 11pm tonight moisture looks to race NW into the Texas Panhandle. This moisture is what storms will feed off of tomorrow afternoon. We have a chance of seeing dew points in the lower to mid 60s with instability as high as 3,900 J kg in the Eastern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. This will be enough for storms to go up and produce very large hail. Tomorrow we could see localized hail sizes up to the size of a baseball. Unlike the NAM/NAM 3km, the HRRR believes that storms that go up on the dryline tomorrow will have pretty good shear, maxing out at around 52/53kts in Motley county, TX. This is pretty good wind shear if you are looking for tornadoes. With all of this being said, it looks like cloud cover for the most part will not be an issue in NW TX where storms look to form, this will allow the sun to bring radiation more effectively into the earths atmosphere creating a more unstable environment. Around 4/5pm storms will begin to initiate along the Dryline. However, soon after these storms will become linear and the tornado risk will preceed to go down as the event becomes more of a wind threat. With all of this being said, I do believe that we could have tornado potential with storms that go up early on the dryline, BUT I still believe that the main risk is large hail/wind. - 10:40am

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Thanks @Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 !

With all of that being said ^ I'm definitely chasing tomorrow.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 12-May-20 10:52 AM

Im on the fence. Waiting another long range hrrr run this afternoon before deciding. Long drive for me. May wait it out until late next week/last week of may.

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 12-May-20 11:03 AM

I'm trying to get my gear in order, and get packed so I can maybe head south at some point today. But work stuff keeps coming up hahahahaha!! Tomorrow is questionable, and not much going on Thursday down there, so I am debating on whether to drive down overnight tonight or not.

damn customers hahaha

It would suck to drive all the way down there for just Wednesdays setup. If it was a clear multi-day tornado event, absolutely!

If I don't leave today, I will head down later in the week regardless, and stay down there for a week or 2, or less if the pattern completely dies.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-May-20 11:25 AM

tomorrow is definitely a "glad i live in central oklahoma" chase day lol

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 12-May-20 11:35 AM

Since the deeper moisture will ironically be up into KS and CTs are sky high in the tx pan and western okla, it's another pitfall for any kind of nader production as LCLs will be sky high for a few hours after initiation. That's not to say some decent structure should still be out there to be had tomorrow.

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Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 12-May-20 03:06 PM

See the latest 36hr HRRR? Seems to show a bit more discreteness (if that's a word) in the TX panhandle tomorrow looking at simu. ref.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 12-May-20 03:51 PM

I do see a bit of that. Not sure if it's actually due to better shear vectors (as those don't look too much better from the previous run), or if it's just an artifact of the capping. Hard to take storm mode on reflectivity too seriously, but it may indicate something.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 12-May-20 03:55 PM

Yep. Makes me watch it a bit more at least

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 12-May-20 04:42 PM

Just finally got off of a work call that I've been stuck on for a good part of the day, and I have not finished packing or getting the gear ready. So at this point, I'm delaying the trip until later this week.

Kinda looking like early next week might be northern plains though???

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 04:45 PM

Yeah, Northern plains look to be active potentially next week. I'm not at all excited about it. It's too far out and weather models can easily change. Just have to watch for trends at this point.

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Willard (Madrid, IA) 12-May-20 05:18 PM

Next week is definitely looking like a pretty decent week in the central and northern plains. I pulled the trigger today and decided to take most of next week off. If the storms don’t cooperate I’ll just go back to work. But I think the storms will cooperate.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-May-20 06:22 PM

Saw on my newsfeed looks like mike Morgan is going balls to the wall for tmrw

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-May-20 06:24 PM

IT'S MAY THIRD ALL OVER AGAIN!

Attachment: mike-morgan-made-at-us.webp (26.53 KB)

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-May-20 06:24 PM

He has a moderate tornado threat for western oklahoma and I’m like “whoa”

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-May-20 06:24 PM

Wasn't there that other SLGT risk last may that he also hyped but it ended up just being a hailer day, or am I mistaken

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 12-May-20 06:26 PM

Huuuuuuuge Wedges!!!

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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-May-20 06:26 PM

Idk probably lol I don’t really actively pay attention unless it’s something really going out on a limb

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-May-20 06:27 PM

I swear I faintly remember a day 4 SLGT that stayed a SLGT until day 1, and Mike on day 3 had a pretty high tornado risk, I wonder if I can find the day lol

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-May-20 06:27 PM

I stopped looking for tornado potential yesterday since I do hail forecasts anyway and the tornado threat was pretty consistently “meh” at best

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-May-20 06:28 PM

I agree on the tornado threat, seemed pretty meh this entire time

Tristan White (North AL) 12-May-20 09:15 PM

Decided not to chase tomorrow. If I lived in Oklahoma and Texas, I would of easily chased but along with other things is making me miss tomorrows event. Next week looks like some High Plains insanity. Hopefully models stay consistent and trend upward so I get back out to the field.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 12-May-20 09:16 PM

pass as well on tomorrow

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 12-May-20 09:25 PM

Too far for me with a lower tornado threat than I’d like to chase, so I’m out, too.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-May-20 09:33 PM

Game On!

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 12-May-20 09:52 PM

@Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) You're on a winning streak! Can't quit now!

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You killed it with a lower risk today!

Austin Perroux (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 09:56 PM

Oh god just looked at tomorrows soundings

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 12-May-20 09:56 PM

@Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) lol don’t think I haven’t considered that already! I’ll scope the models one more time in the AM, but I think I’m out. I’m 100% driven by tornado chances

Austin Perroux (Norman, OK) 12-May-20 09:56 PM

yea im big out on that

only hope is to chase the smallest dewpoint depression and hope initiation happens there

Jonathan G (Canton, OH) 12-May-20 10:35 PM

Spending the night in Woodward. Chasecation begins

Not expecting much tomorrow

William Frogge (Dixie Madman) 13-May-20 07:20 AM

Chasing today. Have to burn a PTO day due to COVID so why not? Pretty chase country

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 13-May-20 08:12 AM

figuring out if im chasing today or not lol

not totally my choice on which one of us at hail trace is the one driving for koco

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 13-May-20 08:24 AM

yup got word that our target area is Hollis OK

Mitch Watts (Yukon, OK) 13-May-20 08:25 AM

The wind profiles for AMA 12z sounding look somewhat promising. Although that 55kt at the 850mb needs to calm down a bit. I'm not sure how much I want to rely on convective products today. All the various products of HRRR and NAM scream Dodge City area, yet only the latest run of the HRRR has a single isolated cell up there. (edited)

Jonathan G (Canton, OH) 13-May-20 08:32 AM

I’m just gonna hang tight in Woodward until the dryline starts setting up

Wanna be flexible between panhandle or KS

Mitch Watts (Yukon, OK) 13-May-20 08:33 AM

Yeah I'd stage in Woodward, good access to everywhere else.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 09:27 AM

Good morning folks, it's chase day! Even though we have some cloud cover right now in the eastern part of the Texas Panhandle, cloud coverage should move out soon and heating should begin. Currently in Childress we have 58/57 according to the West Texas Mesonet. These dew points should continue to rise into the 60s as the day goes on and clearing begins. Storms will initiate near childress and move Eastward soon after. (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 09:28 AM

Just not real confident we are going to get anything at all surface-based in Kansas today. The HRRR and NAM both show a nearly unbreakable cap in southwest and south-central Kansas and the low cloud deck is going to be very slow to erode up here. Think that, if anything, the better chances for severe weather up here may come from the elevated stuff that develops after midnight.

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Jonathan G (Canton, OH) 13-May-20 09:33 AM

Yeah I think I'm gonna commit to TX and start heading SW from Woodward.

Watch obs, see how the dryline sets up and find the best dews. Then wait for dem towers (edited)

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 13-May-20 09:35 AM

I would chill in the panhandles for the dryline. I don't like the KS target due to that cap and all the low clouds.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 09:37 AM

I agree with you Ed. I honestly don't even understand why people are still thinking about Kansas. I have been watching this system for about a week now and Kansas has not really caught my interest at all. (edited)

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 13-May-20 09:41 AM

I-40 corridor seems like a good initial E/W option, maybe even I-27 depending on where the dryline sets up

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 09:44 AM

Depending on surface observations the next few hours and the HRRR, I MAY actually had towards Canadian. I kind of like this discrete cell that the HRRR has been consistent with since yesterday. However, current surface observations do not look the best for that area at this point. So I might still head Southwest. Knowing me though I won't be able to make up my mind until I am ready to leave. (edited)

With that being said, there's a 95% chance I will be headed Southwest lol.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 09:58 AM

KS will have the better wind fields and pooling, deeper, moisture....lower LCLs. But can't utilize those if you don't get a storm unfortunately. The lesser area is going to be where we actually get convection today. But hopefully, we still get some storm-scale accidents today down there for everybody chasing.

1

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:12 AM

Moisture is slowly starting to rise in NW TX. The environment is completely saturated right now.

Winds coming from the North. Hollis, OK currently at 63/63. Really liking the moisture today, however we just need those clouds to move out and allow heating to occur more efficiently. Some areas in the Southern part of the Texas Panhandle already have 3,000 J kg of instability, while back North towards Childress we only have around 400 J kg. Once those clouds move out and heating is able to happen, we will see those CAPE values begin to rise.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 13-May-20 10:27 AM

https://twitter.com/cameronjnixon/status/1260592097314340864?s=21

Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon)

Decided to try another way to interact with this convective season from my humble abode so I can #neverstoplearning Chasers, this one's for ya'll

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:37 AM

I'm having trouble trying to find a reason to go lol.

My main issue, and this has been since the day I started looking at this setup, is the lack of vent winds.

You can work with meager h5 flow if it's properly vented, but a complete lack of support from 18k on up, that's troubling.

And I never seem to be the guy who just lucks into a freak tornado owing solely to mesoscale dumbness.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:40 AM

Yeah, the winds around 18k look pretty bad and have looked bad since last week. I agree with you on that.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:41 AM

Unfortunately not deep enough into the season to have a rogue OFB to work with either, that would justify the lack of upper level support.

Clouds breaking up in the pan and west okla finally. Temps about to sky rocket.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:42 AM

Just what I want to see Jake.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:42 AM

I want to chase so badly, man. I hunger for the open road and great storms....but I just can't lie to myself and go just 'to get out there." This was so much easier when I was a noob. Just go, fail, and repeat LOL.

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:42 AM

Like I have said all week long, todays risk doesn't really look that good for tornadoes, yes, there is a limited window for them, however it doesn't look the best.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:43 AM

That was 09 for Kevin and I.....driving 400 miles for a chance to see a wall cloud. ha

2

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:43 AM

No thank you lol

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:44 AM

I will risk it every time if the storm mode is solid. Cap bust, no worries. High lcls.....not a problem. But just tryibng to get a sustained supercell, that's a tough road for good tornadoes.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:44 AM

I'm mainly chasing today because I like to chase and I have jack crap to do. lol. I grew up in Wisconsin where we seldomly ever saw Tornadoes, so I've never really been into chasing just for tornadoes.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:44 AM

Earlier in the week I thought there would be a thermonuclear cap all down the dryline, but once it started initiating multiple storms I was concerned.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:45 AM

But, I understand peoples interest in wanting to chase just them.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:45 AM

Oh I get anyone who goes out.

I'm just dealing with my own weird personal biases LOL

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:45 AM

lmao. I definitely feel you on that.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:46 AM

I was 100% green until about an hour ago. (edited)

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:46 AM

I know the long term looks bleak, but I just can't imagine going through the climatological peak here in a week or two without there being a least a handful of setups that will end up looking much better than this one today.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:46 AM

^

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:46 AM

I mean, if we look at current obs for wind shear around 18k, it looks horrible, so I know that most likely I wont get a tornado today. Next week looks nice, but I don't get excited over model data a week out.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:47 AM

Another aspect I'm always willing to risk. I never want to chase because I feel desperate. I'd rather wait it out on decent setups, even if they never come.

4

But that's just me.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:47 AM

I agree with you on that Shane.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:48 AM

Now, if just 1-2 storms go up on the dryline and sustain for an hour or two, that would be how I totally blow this day.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:48 AM

Doubtful though.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:48 AM

Yeah man, I just don'y see how they could with the horrid mid-upper levels

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

I'm with Jake and Shane...with the wet spring we've had...it's hard not to think that we'll go past climo with a couple of crashing front setups and a handful of upscale growth/junk chases. The more I've looked at setups in recent years, the more I've become a setup snob. It's gotta be a good one for me to derail the day and get on the road.

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Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

@Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) ....do you know what KS's record is for latest nader in a year? I think Bogner said it the other day but I forget.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

I swear this seemed easier when I was still new.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

@Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) it's May 28.

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Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

Still no KS tornado?

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

Nope

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

WOW

I ndid not know that

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:49 AM

Lol. Because you just looked at the SPC if I remember correctly Shane.

I think that's what you said in one of your podcasts lol

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:50 AM

That and I never really had anything happening life-wise. Younger and single and 100% chase-ready nonstop.

I miss that so bad.

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:50 AM

Literally me right now, except I get pissy over crappy chase days/

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:50 AM

But.....I have savd myself a ton of miles, wear-n-tear, $$$ and time by learning how to pick my battles better.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:50 AM

Wouldn't be shocked if we flirt with that date, Matt. ha

Maybe tomorrow there will be a fluke frontal nader up in the KC area.

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 10:51 AM

Yeah! If it wasn't for work calls keeping me tied up most of the day yesterday, I would have been on the road heading south early yesterday. Now it looks like I won't be able to hit the road until end of the week.

maybe that saved me!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:51 AM

April 22, man that was a gift and I blew it LOL. I hope that wasn't my one great chance of the Spring.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:52 AM

I wanted to chase that day, but a Meteorology lecture and some other things kept me from being able to chase the way I wanted to.

And dumbasses who think they know everything asked why I was filming structure and not chasing, like really? lol.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:52 AM

The crazy thing is, we are better-prepared resources-wise to chase this year than we have been in the past several. Gas is cheaper than it's been during a chase season in damn near 20 years. We just don't have any systems. (edited)

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Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:53 AM

I didn't even think about gas. lol I'm super jealous now of everybody getting to go out this spring. lol

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 10:53 AM

Wouldn't be shocked if we flirt with that date, Matt. ha

@Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) me either.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:53 AM

Yeah, most I've spent this year is $50 and that was chasing in the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:53 AM

I spent like $8 topping off today from a little more than half a tank.

Just need great storms

My camera is sitting right next to me charging. Just no real reason to go.

But from a forecast standpoint, great practice. I just hope the lessons I learn today don't come in the form of a tornado I missed in my target area.

If there was just 40-50kts at h25 I'd bite.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:55 AM

Doubtful that you will miss a tornado today. Some ingredients are there, but it doesn't look amazing. The window for tornadoes will be extremely limited to when storms first go up as they will soon after become linear

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 10:56 AM

I bought 2 new video cameras for this season! Hope I get to use them hahahaha!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:56 AM

That's the other thing, the limited window that seems to overlap the window of higher based storms before they move into richer moisture further east. (edited)

Unless I'm not understanding that scenario.

But I bet we see multiple chaser videos shot through busted windshields

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:57 AM

Yeah... Not happening today.

For me at least. Screw that nonesene

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:57 AM

That seems to be the thing now. If the tornado potential is garbage, get your windshield smashed (edited)

2

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:58 AM

I accidentally destroyed my windshield a few weeks ago and I was more than pissed than "excited". Sick of destroying me vehicle with hail stones. Crap isn't worth it.

I chase for 4 reasons. Structure, lightning, tornadoes, and being able to experience mother nature.

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Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 10:58 AM

In 28 years of chasing, and ~135 tornadoes (including being in 5 of them), I have never had hail damage to a vehicle! I spend way too much hard earned money on vehicles to purpose destroy them. I've never understood that.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:59 AM

If I could chase everything and always had a place to get it repaired the next day, I'd be more aggressive.

But, opposite of Matt, I've always owned beaters.

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 10:59 AM

Lol. I wish I could repair my windshield and not worry about having to keep a busted windshield for months......

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 10:59 AM

They're cheap, great on gas, last, and I don't cry when they get beat up.

Plus it makes it easy to blend in.

You have all these SWAT SUVs out there and I'm more like Baretta.

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 11:00 AM

hahaha

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:00 AM

I call it the "Kojak" rig.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:01 AM

Charging up my camcorder but I'm struggling to find a good reason to go west after my dentist appointment.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:01 AM

I feel you.

Doing the exact same thing except it's northwest lol.

I LOVE the drive, 287 between SPS and CDS is one of my favorite chase routes.

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 11:02 AM

You mean you don't chase with one of these Shane???

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:02 AM

I wouldn't even know how to get in the damn thing lol. (edited)

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Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:02 AM

I'd probably head northwest if I could towards Woodward.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:03 AM

Doesn't 287 go through Electra?...by vernon? That was one our most memorable structure chases on May 7, 2008. Perfect flatness out there.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:03 AM

Yes it does....and while you guys were enjoying that storm, we were busting in WC OK lol.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:04 AM

That was the only damn one to go up that day wasn't it? ha

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:04 AM

Yeah, and we sat there from the time it blipped on the radar, and I stubbornly held my ground and waited.....for nothing. Mickey was like "we could've been down there by now" after about 90 minutes lol.

But the lesson I learned that day has served me well ever since.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:06 AM

Oh i've been in that situation many-a-time.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:06 AM

Picking poison, I'd rather do that than drive the 70 miles or whatever, then have the place I was at go nuts.

LOL, there's so many ways to feel pain in this game

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:09 AM

That's actually the worst one we've dealt with....waiting to long to commit to an on-going cell, and then committing too late, and then the area you were already in goes up.

We were always way to damn indecisive.

It was our undoing multiple times.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:10 AM

I did that on May 22, 2004 in Nebraska

We literally sat in one spot for 3 hours waiting, after initiation

Finally bailed, and then the Hallum storm blew up 20 miles from where we'd been all day.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:11 AM

OH NO. Hell. that hurts man.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:11 AM

It very much did lol.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:11 AM

It's one thing if it just goes up and does whatever, but if it becomes a Hallum type event......friggin ouch.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:12 AM

Yeah, we sat there watching tornado-warned storm in two different directions like 70 miles away. I started thinking we were going to miss an outbreak while just sitting in the middle of it, so we bolted west to the dryline storm.

arrhh

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:12 AM

Such a fickle hobby. I'm jealous of the people who have more confidence and are more decisive.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:12 AM

I try to be, I find it much easier to do that one days where you know the setup is solid.

I tend to waffle more on "do I even go or not" type marginal setups

Like today lol

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:13 AM

Ya, because you're already second guessing yourself.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:15 AM

I hate that I use UD tracks in my decision-making (because they put them there for you automatically), but I've noticed that no one storm keeps a UD track longer than one hour if you go through the runs. That makes sense considering the difficulty storms will have maintaining sup structures with the lack of upper support.

Or, I'm just trying to make myself feel better about my decision to (most likely) stay home.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:19 AM

If by some small chance a mesoscale accident takes place at least I'll have enough drugs from the dentist to not give a damn.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:25 AM

UD Tracks are fun to watch though. I think there's probably a threshold to how dialed in you should look at the "where" I should go when looking at them, but their length, and strength, and density probably helps give a decent indication of what areas are more favorable in that particular model. I've undoubtedly put too much weight into them when i've used them in the past couple years, but i continue doing it. ha

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:28 AM

It's too easy not to, although I always look at the HRRR runs last after looking at actual multi-level data. Even within the NAM itself, I often times see a "supercell index" parameter display that doesn't agree with my own opinion based on my individual levels analysis, so there's bias/imperfections there obviously. (edited)

(with the parameter AND me lol)

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 13-May-20 11:30 AM

5% went bye bye

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:30 AM

YES. I love it when the experts reflect what I was thinking. Makes me feel like I sorta know this stuff some of the time. (edited)

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:31 AM

Oh well. I'm still chasing. That doesn't bother me at all.

I figured they would get rid of the 5%.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:31 AM

It doesn't bother me either LOL. This is the most excited I've been all day, despite the fact it changes nothing LOL.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:31 AM

Lol

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:32 AM

I've seen some pretty cool tornadoes in 2%s.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:32 AM

Ya, that just settled it that today is going to go bonkers in Childress.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:33 AM

I mean straight up I don't know how many times I've had to say it this week but today is not going to be a tornado risk day. There's still a limited chance of tornadoes today but nothing has ever looked good for today with tornadoes. Primarily a hail and wind threat.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:34 AM

One of my best OK tornadoes came on a 2%.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:35 AM

Regardless, my ass is still chasing. Lol.

One of my best Chase days happened on a marginal risk day.

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 11:36 AM

Most of my tornadoes have been on 2% days!

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:37 AM

People seriously down play 2% days.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:37 AM

Nah, I love them. I just don't feel confident in a sustained, inflow-dominant supercell today.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:38 AM

I mean straight up, the biggest tornado outbreak in Wisconsin record on a 2% tornado day. That was also the day that my town got hit by an F3 tornado. But I do agree that today really doesn't look good for tornadoes. I don't think today will be one of those 2% tornado days. If I'm wrong hopefully I'm on that storm then.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 11:39 AM

I'm really surprised that SPC maintained a SLGT risk in SC/SW KS...we still have a very low cloud deck and fog in that area. RAP, HRRR, HRRRv4, and 3km NAM do not initiate in that area.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 11:41 AM

Still chasing today. I plan on heading west on 40 after my last meeting today and then head south if necessary based on surface obs.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:41 AM

The wording of the outlook is what cements it for me; I was slightly concerned they might have downgraded to 2% tor owing to new data that suggested a stouter cap, with few/1-2 storms expected. But the mentions of downdraft potnetial and clustering because of weak upper support continues the trend.

Gimme a 2% in a death cap with that one storm that bombs up 1 out of 8-10 times, and I'm there.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 11:43 AM

I'm staying home, after my dentist appointment I'm going to spend the rest of the day making my Rozel video for my YouTube channel.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:44 AM

Did the Dimmit day a few years ago have weak upper support LOL?

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 13-May-20 11:57 AM

Lol Shane that was 5/17 last year as far as the death cap. Only one storm made it up through the cap. But I was on that one and had 4 tornadoes from it. I don't remember Dimmit having a ton of upper level support though.

1

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 11:58 AM

Looking at the satellite loop, it looks opposite of "typical"; you see the low level clouds racing north twice as fast as the upper levels which are slowly drifting east. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 13-May-20 12:00 PM

+We are inbound from IN by way of KC KS. First time out to the plains for a chase. We are planning to drive west on I40 basically until we see rain or head sw into TX.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 12:03 PM

I was going to chase Dimmit, but College prevented me from doing that.

I was very pissed lol

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 12:07 PM

"I'm not going to be able to make it to Kansas." That was Drew on 5/17 last year. You know the old saying if there is a will there's a way.

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 13-May-20 12:11 PM

It held off long enough for me to make it. There was no way in hell I was making Nebraska though (edited)

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 12:11 PM

Wow...dewpoint in Childress just shot up to 67. They're about to see some serious insolation now that the sun is out.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 12:11 PM

Yep

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 12:12 PM

Yeah I was surprised Dakota and I made it in time.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 12:13 PM

Some ob on the NM/TX border has had serious mixing happen in the last 2 hours...dropping from 56 to 32.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 12:20 PM

That's because of the magical thing called clearing.

Talkin about the Childress part.

Dryline should be moving East now.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 12:52 PM

Love, love, love seeing that clearing. Dew points should begin going up just a little bit more as well as we will see an increase in instability as now that radiation is able to actually hit the ground and heat the Earth more easily.

3

James Judson (Macon, Ga) 13-May-20 01:05 PM

I have 68 dew point near childress

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 01:09 PM

Here comes instability.

Based on new data I'm probably going to position somewhere in between Wellington and Childress.

Starting to see some clearing in Southwestern Oklahoma now. It'll be nice to see blue skies again.

I just had a gigantic hawk come out in front of my vehicle I almost hit it.

That would've sucked

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-May-20 02:17 PM

Blue Box incoming

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 13-May-20 02:19 PM

Gonna be armchasing around Childress

Hopefully the 2% does some magic

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 02:32 PM

Heading west now from Yukon.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 13-May-20 02:36 PM

Bubbling CU in Shamrock

Tristan White (North AL) 13-May-20 02:46 PM

Severe thunderstorm watch is being issued now

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-May-20 02:47 PM

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 02:49 PM

Nothing like the TX PNH. My favorite place to chase.

Tristan White (North AL) 13-May-20 02:50 PM

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 02:50 PM

Nice. Headed that direction myself Mike.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 13-May-20 03:08 PM

Potential there for some sweet Wichita Mountain pics at sunset this evening.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-May-20 03:26 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/status/1260667590793261059

NWS Severe Tstorm (@NWSSevereTstorm)

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Texas until 10 PM CDT

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 13-May-20 03:28 PM

#Fortstocktoning

James Judson (Macon, Ga) 13-May-20 03:28 PM

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 03:31 PM

@Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) I'm near Shamrock. Watching cumulus go up.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 03:32 PM

I'm near Weatherford heading that way.

Storm motions should be nice and slow today.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 03:35 PM

Yessir.

Had to park in the southern part of Shamrock because everybody is in Northern Shamrock and taking up all the data.

And initiation.

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 04:08 PM

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 13-May-20 04:12 PM

Looks like you're about to have two storms

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 04:54 PM

And the storm near Shamrock has pretty much died out.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 05:32 PM

Storm trying to go up to the SE of me.

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 06:12 PM

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James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 13-May-20 06:16 PM

Nice tower Mike

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 06:20 PM

It's absolutely beautiful. I'm currently chasing another thunderstorm but since it's moving so slowly and so visible from where I am I'm also focusing on that tower.

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 06:25 PM

There is no doubt that this is God's country when it comes to chasing.

I have clear, unobstructed views of every storm within 50 miles and the TX DOT has 75 mph speed limits for these types of roads

Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 13-May-20 06:34 PM

Really glad I didn't end up driving all night to get down there for this hahaha! I guess it worked out.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 06:50 PM

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Attachment: IMG_20200513_182456.dng (7.89 MB)

Some action shots.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-May-20 07:26 PM

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 07:29 PM

Awesome sauce Glen

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 07:39 PM

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 07:45 PM

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Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 07:59 PM

Getting hit by some pretty good winds here outside Elk City.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 08:14 PM

Joshua Yurkiewicz (Bastrop, TX) 13-May-20 08:17 PM

!!!!!!!!! Amazing storm structure on the Willow OK Storm!

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 13-May-20 08:26 PM

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 08:31 PM

Mammatus is beginning to form.

It's extremely hard to see in the photo but there's a lot of it.

Switching over to trying to capture lightning on the backside of that line near Canute

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 13-May-20 08:35 PM

very nice

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 08:49 PM

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Storm near Strong City

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 13-May-20 09:01 PM

Tor possible tag on it

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 09:04 PM

It's very hard to tell but I do believe at one point it did have a wall cloud on it. Lots of intracloud lightning with this storm I wish the low-level clouds were not a factor because there's a bunch of anvil crawlers.

However, the wall cloud was extremely high based. .

My Chase day is done. Caught some lightning bolts, lots of storm structure, stayed out of the hail like I wanted to. I knew that there wouldn't be a tornado risk so I wasn't even thinking about it. I was just chasing and enjoying it like it's meant to be enjoyed. (edited)

Austin Perroux (Norman, OK) 13-May-20 09:12 PM

too low of shear makes a multicell mess