In all honesty, I'm not interested in tomorrows setup for Texas/Oklahoma. Yes, we will have CAPE reaching into the 4,000s, yes we will have dew points in the mid to high 60s, yes we have good lapse rates, BUT wind profiles look trash 18k above the earths surface and most of the day cloud coverage will be in NW TX/SW OK limiting the ability for radiation to reach the ground as it should. Storms look to go up on the dryline in the early afternoon hours, they will be descrete, giving them an extremely limited window to become supercellular and possibly tornadic. However, soon after those descrete cells go up they will merge with other forming cells and at that point the threat will turn into a wind/hail threat . Main risks look to be hail/wind, with a small tornado threat. I personally will not be out unless these storms in Central OK stay consistent on the HRRR.(edited)
Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL)14-May-20 03:13 PM
Have a feeling we'll see something similar to yesterday
Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)14-May-20 03:20 PM
That's what I was thinking.
Drew Terril (OKC, OK)14-May-20 03:24 PM
Considering I've had exactly one chase so far this year, I'd be out if I were home. But it doesn't appear that I'll be home in time for this one and will miss it by a few hours.
Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)14-May-20 03:26 PM
I hope you get a kick-ass storm this year Drew.
Drew Terril (OKC, OK)14-May-20 03:26 PM
I'm not expecting a lot from a tor standpoint, although upper level shear isn't as concerning from that standpoint. Storm mode is the more concerning part for me, and it appears that there won't be enough capping to keep things from going up all at once and, as Matt Sellers has described as an apt analogy, it'll be like getting a dozen drunks into a bathroom and telling them they all have 2 minutes to pee. All they'll really accomplish is peeing all over each other.
There should to be a bunch of boundaries to work with tomorrow. May be a small positive with the weak upper lev support. Go find one and hope the local amplified area of vorticity does some magic for you.
Cameron (Fortson, GA)15-May-20 12:59 AM
Jason Myers (Norman, OK)15-May-20 06:56 AM
The HRRR doesn’t have a good handle on the OFB heading south in NEOK. I shouldn’t be surprised because it rarely does well with elevated morning convection
Jonathan G (Canton, OH)15-May-20 09:12 AM
That’s not just OFB. That’s a stout cold pool that’ll ruin any chance of a storm in OK
I woke up, looked at mesoanalysis and thought “hm central OK might be good”
Then I looked at satellite and radar
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)15-May-20 09:15 AM
will it stall out or will it shove all the way to texas hmmmmm based on my desire to backyard chase id say push all the way into texas
Jonathan G (Canton, OH)15-May-20 09:15 AM
Yeah that thing is crashing all the way to Guatemala lmao
I think today’s play would somewhere further south along the dry line
Why does flow aloft have to be so bad
Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK)15-May-20 12:14 PM
Kind of interesting that unlike the SPC and most of the info I've seen on here that Reed Timmer really seems to like the tornado potential from SW/C Oklahoma today. I honestly haven't had a chance to look at it myself as my son has a baseball game tonight.(edited)
Joshua Yurkiewicz (Bastrop, TX)15-May-20 12:21 PM
Ofb seems to be slowing down a tad.. I am heading to Altus.
I should have went to CO the upper winds seems better lol
Joshua Yurkiewicz (Bastrop, TX)15-May-20 01:29 PM
I take that back... ofb is going warp speed... time to go fishing... lol
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas until 10 PM CDT
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)15-May-20 02:44 PM
You guys see that boundary near Altus, ok and it’s a bulge?(edited)
Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK)15-May-20 02:52 PM
Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK)15-May-20 03:03 PM
OFB is still chugging south. Don't know if it will slow down enough to allow storms to mature in the shrinking warm sector.
Drew Terril (OKC, OK)15-May-20 03:18 PM
I'll have a good view of whatever goes up as I head north from Grand Prairie
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)15-May-20 03:47 PM
Chilling south of Geronimo watching the ofb continue its death march
Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK)15-May-20 03:52 PM
Doesn't KOCO outfit you guys with something to ward those off and keep the warm sector in place?
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)15-May-20 04:02 PM
Ofb incoming
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)15-May-20 04:10 PM
Closer and closer
Adam Reagan (Norman, OK)15-May-20 04:31 PM
That was around Central High.
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)15-May-20 05:35 PM
Janky little roll cloud right now derping around for live shots
Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)15-May-20 11:01 PM
I got that roll cloud
Holly Pajak (London, Ontario)15-May-20 11:03 PM
nice shot!
Drew Terril (OKC, OK)16-May-20 01:04 AM
Welp, I called it. Since I had to sit out today, there was going to be at least one tor.
Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)16-May-20 01:33 AM
Yeah, but I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Today's set up was absolutely a mess and I'm glad I did not chase.
Drew Terril (OKC, OK)16-May-20 01:34 AM
Lol but you haven't been limited to one single chase this year either
Yes, I got what appears to have been a tornado on that day, but I'm greedy and I want more. Especially since that was literally my only chase of the year to this point
Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)16-May-20 01:51 AM
I didn't even know a tornado formed today.
If I'm going to be honest
@Drew Terril (OKC, OK) hopefully your next chase will be bad ass and you get a nice tornado. You deserve it for your hard work my man.
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