Stormtrack - 5-17-2020_in_il

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-May-20 05:02 PM

@James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) here it is

1

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 16-May-20 05:03 PM

Thanks man

@Norman Smith (Racine, OH) @Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)

Here’s our channel

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 05:12 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 05:35 PM

Yahoo!

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 05:37 PM

Tomorrow is all about that Warm Front magic

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 05:37 PM

I am thinking atm target the NE corner of IN. A few of the models are showing potential cloud breaks in the eastern part of the state, so that is where discrete initiation has the best chance of happening. But, I plan to stay close to the warm front, as that is where shear is maximized. It looks to be right on the IN/MI border. (edited)

There will be a squall line likely forming on the cold front, but that is mainly a wind threat. The HRRR has so far been hinting at some discrete cells, again along mainly the eastern part of IN. But storm motion is to the NE, so residence time along the warm front will be very limited. Unless a storm can root at the surface right at the frontal boundary. Then its game on!

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 05:40 PM

^

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 16-May-20 05:40 PM

actually more concerned about the flooding risk than the severe weather risk with this setup

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 05:40 PM

I think if we get a storm just a bit to the south of the warm front it could be pretty damn good as well. Probably go ahead to Van Wert OH, and then go to Fort Wayne in NE IN

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 05:40 PM

I will be chasing with another guy tomorrow, who has much more experience than me, so will likely default to his forcast. (edited)

The directional shear is stupid good. Very backed surface winds.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 16-May-20 05:44 PM

possibly a slight risk to come on the day 1 outlook overnight?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 05:46 PM

I am predicting slight risk. Wind and tor. But the tor 5% area will be very small.

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 16-May-20 06:04 PM

My only worry is if there's morning convection, when is it gonna clear and what's our trigger for storm development in the warm sector?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 06:49 PM

That is why its a marginal/slight

Its one of those good 'ol fashioned conditional risks

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 16-May-20 07:39 PM

High risk for flooding though, boy its gonna be rough for areas by me. Some spots saw almost 5 inches of rain

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 16-May-20 07:41 PM

https://twitter.com/NWOhioWeather/status/1261819065468928001

NW Ohio Wx (@NWOhioWeather)

As we have mentioned, plenty of rain is on the way for the next couple of days. Widespread 1-3" likely. Isolated higher amounts are possible. #NWOhioWx #OHwx #weather

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:05 PM

This is me and James’s prelim target area for tomorrow

Really liking Eastern IN

If a storm gets on or near the warm front, it will be game time

2

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:21 PM

New HRRR run has morning convection leaving around 16z which is really damn good (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:25 PM

HRRRv4 has UH tracks again

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:26 PM

Liking IN tom, assuming that's where the WF lies, definitely seeing some backed SFC winds (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:27 PM

Eastern IN let’s get it

I also like NW Ohio

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:28 PM

Just hope it keeps trending better. I would like it a bit less messy. As it stands its going to be very grungy

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:28 PM

I think we can work with this tbh

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:28 PM

Holy shit

Where was that taken?

Eastern IN?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:28 PM

Yeah

North Eastern/North Central IN

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:28 PM

The directional shear is redonkulous

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:29 PM

Those cells in NE IN & NW OH do be vibin

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:29 PM

RAP showing decent LLLR's too with it, something to watch, mid-level lapse rates as well seems at least marginally conducive for a low-end marginal hail threat (edited)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 16-May-20 08:29 PM

goes back to what I have learned... what we think and what the Storm Prediction Center thinks can be on the opposite ends of the spectrum

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:29 PM

Latest HRRR run seems to favor IL more

The dews at least

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:30 PM

If those cells on HRRRv4 are on the front.......oh boy

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:30 PM

Timing of when precip moves out and how much the environment recovers is going to be my main concern

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:31 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:31 PM

And breaks in cloud cover. We still need something to trigger the storms

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:31 PM

Most models have precip moving out by 16z

Which is good

Surface Obs are gonna be huge

Huge Factor anyway

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:32 PM

Well you can have precip cleared out but if you still got cloud cover that extent of the threat is going to be significantly marginalized

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:32 PM

And the moisture is already here. It was a bit muggy today. I am like 2 hours SW of target area

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:32 PM

Imo I think they’ll go 5%

3

Northern IN into NW Ohio

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:33 PM

Honestly think HRRR is being rather bullish with these Dews, but I can see them getting into the low 60's

HRRR really aggressive with this imo

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:33 PM

I don't like the trend east with this run.

I don't look at sbcape anymore

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:34 PM

Gotta love and hate conditional setups because they're so finnicky and you gotta nitpick it all out

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:34 PM

^

I got a odd feeling about tomorrow though

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

Well, u just have to pull the trigger and most of the time you take your lumps. But, eventually it pays off. You just have to get out there. Especially in slower years like this.

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

Just woke up from a 30 minute nap and I’m already hit with a wave of confusion for tomorrow

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

Lmao

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

HRRRV4's 0Z run I think shows one sup along that IN WF

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

I’m still convinced to go out

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

Otherwise very messy storm mode and grungy

2

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:35 PM

Yeah it does

Those could be on the WF

And if so....boy

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:36 PM

yea, no UH tracks tho

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:37 PM

Still, those could be super cellular eventually.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:37 PM

Also, storm direction matters too. If the storm crosses too quickly, or isn't matured yet, its just races over and goes elevated

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:37 PM

Yep that too

Idk I think is it worth the 3 hours?

Tomorrow could be really good, or it could suck

either way I’m core punching hail cores

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:38 PM

3 hour is nothing

I have driven plenty of 3 hours for busts before.

Heck, I just drove 1k miles for a bust in TX panhandle.

I have to make food. I will check in on it tomorrow morning. Just give me some cloud breaks and a warm front and I will be happy!

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 08:43 PM

^ yep! Anyways I’m gonna get some rest and talk to James before I head to bed but good luck tomorrow Joey! Might see ya out there

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-May-20 08:46 PM

I will be chasng with Zach Walters, but I will have my SN dot up. I think he drives a black Nissan Rogue. (edited)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 16-May-20 09:29 PM

plenty of precipitation to come in the next 48 hours

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 16-May-20 09:55 PM

Thinking Warsaw, IN might be a play tomorrow tbh

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 16-May-20 09:55 PM

Not liking NW IN

To much messy storm modes tbh

You’re best shot at a tornado is going to be north central/Eastern IN

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-May-20 10:24 PM

Looks messy overall @Norman Smith (Racine, OH) But since it's only 3 hours, take the shot, this is the kind of day where you can go with low expectations and snag a solid tor out of it, safe travels, best of luck, catch a tube!

Nick Isabella (New York City) 16-May-20 11:33 PM

Hey all. We are in eastern oh now spending the night heading to the plains. We were actually thinking sw Indiana for storms tomorrow around sunset (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 17-May-20 01:00 AM

Tor Driven Slight!

10

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 01:13 AM

Headed to Fort Wayne tomorrow boys

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 17-May-20 01:19 AM

^

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 01:20 AM

This is getting good

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 17-May-20 08:40 AM

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 17-May-20 09:08 AM

https://twitter.com/norman_wx/status/1262021676172222466?s=21

Norman Smith (@Norman_Wx)

Yay! Can’t storm chase today.....got to love divorce parent court rules!

I’m livid, this is why I can’t wait till im 18 (edited)

Once again getting shorthanded in life!

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 17-May-20 09:18 AM

I was 19 before I even owned a car. I bought my first car with the money I earned from Army basic training and AIT, so at least you don't have to wait that long

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 09:31 AM

Well I can’t go then, since he was my only ride

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 10:47 AM

Update: My dad is taking me chasing so it’s still on for me

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 11:27 AM

Its looking like E IL/W IN now. That is where the cloud break is happeneing. I fear that it may be too close to the qlcs cold front storm though.

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 11:33 AM

I’m sitting in Van Wert, OH right now. Not much morning convection has interfered with the environment out here and we have a warm from not to far away from this position. I feel any storms that fire up along the Eastern IN border have a good shot and spinning and if they do I can follow them NE because of good road networks in this location.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 11:35 AM

I am not sure storms will form there. Also SPC thinks biggest risk is in W IN/E IL. That is where CAPE will be, due to the only cloud breaks in the northern Hemisphere occurring there...

This low on the satilite looks like a hurricane. That is one strong low

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 11:39 AM

Models were fairly consistent at storms firing along the eastern IN border and I feel like we have decent parameters for that to happen. There is just potential, I’m not saying it will happen, I just feel confident about it.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 11:41 AM

Fair. Plus its a lot shorter drive for you.

There is a greater chance near me, BUT, I think it may be too close to the cold front. Storms may get undercut/overtaken by the front

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 11:42 AM

Also there is more isolation for any storms that do fire. It won’t be a messy cluster like to the west.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 17-May-20 11:43 AM

SPC taking their time updating the day 1 outlook

5

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 17-May-20 11:44 AM

slight risk upgrade confirmed for northwest svr risk

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 11:45 AM

Well, time to switch my target from 2 hours away to 2 days away

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 17-May-20 11:45 AM

Took them all that time for not that much of a difference

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 11:45 AM

I don't see it yet

Nick Isabella (New York City) 17-May-20 11:47 AM

It updates on cods spc page first for some reason before the actual spc site

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 11:48 AM

They should have just said IL, would have been easier than saying all its sections seperatly

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 17-May-20 11:50 AM

@Nick Isabella (New York City) it's the same with Twitter. They release the update first but when you click on the link it'll still show the old one for like 5 minutes

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 12:37 PM

I’m heading to Fort Wayne atm

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 12:58 PM

Well, the guy I was planning to go with has not responded to any texts/calls for 3 hours. IDK what happened to him, but I am getting very antsy. I am planning to go solo now, head to Vincennes IN. The only problem is I don't have data, so I will need to do the old phone a friend routine. I also can't make SN reports.

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 01:02 PM

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 01:51 PM

https://twitter.com/nwsspc/status/1262091833942794241?s=21

Going to Logansport

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 17-May-20 01:54 PM

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 02:28 PM

I’m going back to NW Ohio

I don’t feel good about being out of state for this

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 17-May-20 02:56 PM

Why so?

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 02:57 PM

Rotating wall cloud in Van Wert

Also it looks really messy and I don’t wanna be out of state too late

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 03:14 PM

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 03:26 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-May-20 03:41 PM

I am sitting in Terre Haute, using Wendys free wifi from their parking lot, lol

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 04:10 PM

https://twitter.com/skydrama/status/1262127723868295168?s=21

Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama)

TORNADO north of Macon IL on hwy 51 NOW @NWSLincolnIL

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 17-May-20 05:23 PM

https://twitter.com/ryanharriottwx/status/1262145409625067523?s=21

Ryan Harriott (@RyanHarriottWx)

From all 6 people on our chase team today, we are absolutely positive that we saw a brief spin up south of Van Wert near Ohio city. #ohwx

I don’t see it

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 17-May-20 05:27 PM

https://twitter.com/StormChaser220/status/1262135603216482305

Kholby Martin (@StormChaser220)

#Tornado that occurred 1 mile east of Elwin, #Illinois around 4:10 PM. It lofted debris several hundred yards into the air. Video soon! #ilwx @NWSLincolnIL @Thunder12uss

Not too shabby