Here's my thoughts, RAP/NAM/HRRR are pretty aggressive on moisture return into the mid-upper 50's, with MLCAPE around 1,000-1,500, with an uncapped SBCAPE of about the same values. Also noticed 15-20kt 0-1km shear, with backed surface winds, and definitely steep, dry adiabatic mid-level lapse rates and also LLLR's of about 7 c/km. Sampling 40-50kt of Bulk eff with 60+ kt of speed shear, with plenty of instability and lifting of that barrel trough from the 500mb, along with HRRR's forecasted lack of cloud cover especially in north-central MT (Take with a grain of salt as it is averaged), with the parameters in place, especially with those supercelluar wind profiles, definitely gonna see some discrete/semi-discrete supercells tom. Although I don't expect a high tornado threat, I honestly think there is a narrow opportunity from around 21-03Z for some high-based supercell to maybe pull off a needle or two, but regardless, definitely expecitng some nice supercells with large hail and damaging winds. Definitely an interesting day structure wise
Regardless of low-level moisture return, definitely gonna have a supercell threat. I tihnk there are still a few questions with that aspect, but HRRR/RAP/NAM have trended it, but i expect a blend of low-mid 50's. Capping in most of MT (not too sure about E MT) isn't my concern with the lift and instability in place, but I mean, I've looked at this for 15-30 minutes so It may be rough around the edges
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