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5-23-20_nd_ne_sd
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) āœ± 22-May-20 06:18 PM
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-May-20 07:10 PM
Tomorrow looks like a sleeper in IL/IN IMO
I honestly don't know what its failure mode is, why its only a marginal. It can't be initiation, all 3 CAMS on COD show it occurring.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-May-20 07:18 PM
Thinking they'll go 5% tor
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-May-20 07:26 PM
The cams are putting initiation really early too. Its definitly higher than 2%. I may go enhanced tor risk, 10%, just due to the, IMO, lack of failure modes. Its just been such a weird year.
Its going to be cloud free, but with a nasty low just in the right spot. Classic surging IL warm front.
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Josh S. (Crest Hill, IL) 22-May-20 07:51 PM
Iā€™m so low key hyped for tomorrow
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-May-20 08:37 PM
IL looks like a better chase than NE/SD for sure. the Target zone in NE is in the freaking sandhill no mans land
you won't find me NW of ogalalla unless it's for work. aint no fun out there
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-May-20 09:14 PM
HRRR is back to lets destroy Chicago. Reminiscent of March 28...
Even NAM 3k is showing discrete
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Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 22-May-20 09:33 PM
The IL warm front is always a target that I'd at least consider going for. They don't call it IL WF magic for nothing. I'll usually take that over an Iowa/Nebraska TP under normal circumstances.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 22-May-20 09:35 PM
sneaky again
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Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 22-May-20 10:53 PM
I might get up early in the morning and take another look at northern IL. It's like 6 hours to Rochelle for me. Very tempting.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-May-20 11:02 PM
I like IL's look
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Payton (Lawrence, KS) 22-May-20 11:05 PM
W KS tomorrow. I don't know what to think
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-May-20 12:28 AM
IL is sneaky tomorrow
If storms can wait until after 3:30pm, I'm game and going.
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Matt Salo (Minneapolis, MN) 23-May-20 12:45 AM
I was hoping each HRRR run would slow it down a bit, but it seams to be speeding up. šŸ˜¦ I have to make a decision early the morning, as it is 6 hours to Rochelle for me, and then whatever time to adjust position east/west from there.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-May-20 08:18 AM
ENH upgrade for Illinois, 10% tor added
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 08:38 AM
For Kansas today....it's the razors edge between a bust and a really good day. Initially looking at south of Dodge, where several runs of the HRRR, NAM suite, and the RAP have shown isolated convection in that area in the 22-01z timeframe, but cap issues exist. If a storm can break the cap, there is decent bulk shear to support a hail threat. Tornado threat much lower, but I guess you can't rule out an accident.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-May-20 09:45 AM
WHO CALLED IT? This guy called it! I knew it was enhanced for Tor! (edited)
CONTAMINATED 3
We really need a Skip Talbot emoji for these IL days
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-May-20 09:54 AM
For N. IL
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Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 10:15 AM
That isolated cell in southwest NE is going to be a dandy today.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 10:25 AM
That isolated cell in southwest NE is going to be a dandy today.
@Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) Lol probably but work tomorrow keeps me from getting after that.
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Payton (Lawrence, KS) 23-May-20 10:29 AM
How about that outbreak the GFS keeps giving us?
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 11:05 AM
How about that outbreak the GFS keeps giving us?
@Payton (Lawrence, KS) today?
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-May-20 11:07 AM
NWS Chi update
All severe weather hazards will be possible today, including a noteworthy threat for a few tornados given the favorable low level shear with backed surface flow in the vicinity of the warm front over far northern IL this afternoon. The ongoing arc of warm air advection induced elevated thunderstorms over eastern IA will likely become surface based over the next few hours as it approaches north central IL. Once this occurs, northeastward moving supercell structures within broken arcs will be probable across northern IL through the mid to late afternoon hours. While much of the area is under a risk of severe weather today, the highest threat could end up being along and northwest of the I-55 corridor.
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Payton (Lawrence, KS) 23-May-20 11:10 AM
@Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) I don't know if it still is showing it. It was yesterday
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Ryan McGinnis (Kearney, NE) 23-May-20 01:15 PM
Ok HRRR ya sold me on SW NE
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-May-20 02:47 PM
Sterling IL tor as it dropped just SW of town
šŸ‘ 4
Via John Humphress
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Ryan McGinnis (Kearney, NE) 23-May-20 05:10 PM
Looks like the Goodland target is starting to pop
Cap is fighting it pretty hard though
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Ryan McGinnis (Kearney, NE) 23-May-20 06:36 PM
Looking due west from just north of Goodland. North storm looks kaput
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Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 07:28 PM
Wow...i really thought that thing was going to take off and be the storm of the day.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 07:28 PM
Storms in the Oklahoma Panhandle are struggling, as well. But Clarendon, TX seems to be the spot.
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Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 07:28 PM
Cap is just really suppressing it, it seems.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-May-20 07:43 PM
Some decent LP structure on a storm near Liberal
šŸ‘ 3
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-May-20 08:26 PM
5 states not listed here had more tornado reports combined than the 3 listed here
this 1
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Palmer | CO 23-May-20 08:29 PM
Screenshot (May 23, 2020 7:29:34 PM)
Look at that PAIR
Amazed there's no tornado watch
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-May-20 11:00 AM
I may have seen my first tornado(s) yesterday, near Beloit WI! I need to check my dashcam video to make sure i was actually looksing the the right areas. There was so much going on and nothing seemed to be fully condensed and there were too many trees/buildings to see ground circulations. But man, what a day. Then driving home I got the Chicago skyline silouetted by orange/gold storms to my east. Got it on timelapse. It was a heck of a day, my best chase yet.
šŸ‘ 2
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