Stormtrack - 5-24-2020_ne_tx_ia_co_mo_ks

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 23-May-20 10:00 PM

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 23-May-20 10:01 PM

https://media.tenor.com/images/7d775a755c0a37bb02b3778b647ccc2c/tenor.gif

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 23-May-20 10:02 PM

Think I might hang out here for a bit and wait to see what happens

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 24-May-20 07:52 AM

Have fun chasing today!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 07:53 AM

The only thing I'm chasing today is coffee now, and beer tonight.

1

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 24-May-20 09:41 AM

I can't leave Kansas at the moment, and I'm just not convinced its' worth the gas to go very far. I'll probably stay home, watch NASCAR and let it come to me for lighting shots.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 09:43 AM

I plan on doing the same. My friends did head out though. I just didn't see a good reason to go

Drew Terril (OKC, OK) 24-May-20 10:38 AM

I actually got some sleep last night, but I wouldn't be able to leave till 1230 and that's not enough time to get to Amarillo before everything congeals into a line

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 10:40 AM

Had some hurricane force winds in Omaha last night. Now the line has cleared but crapvection is going to ruin the warm sector

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 10:40 AM

Yeah, it looks like the S Plains are finishing up for the year unfortunately, but there's still a shot in June I suppose. But even as hungry for more as I am, I still can't justify the time/wear-n-tear for such marginal setups. I'm sure there will be another tornado somewhere but I probably couldn't find it.

Just keep model gazing looking for one last hope.

That sounds like a Star Wars movie

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 10:43 AM

Models have stp over 1 across like 6-8 states today. There are no bullseye's but we could get random tors anywhere. It's like starving at the buffet

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-May-20 10:48 AM

Today looks like a blobfest due to weak upper level winds. I suppose you could make a case for an "accident" in NE KS, NW MO, SE NE, and SW IA where there's an OFB moving south and an MCV coming north from SC Kansas. Upper low is going to cut off somewhere in the southern plains this week and will open up a flood threat ala what they had in NC/SC this week.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 10:51 AM

As much as I want to go out today I've seen enough garbage for the year. Today I'll be grocery shopping and drinking a lot of beers. (edited)

2

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:10 AM

Yep, me too. Although it will be interesting to see if the HRRR keps wanting to pop a random storm just west/northwest of here around 5-6pm.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:17 AM

This month has been trash, I'm hoping next month will be better.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:17 AM

I'm sure there will be opportunities in June, even if you have to go north for them.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:19 AM

The question is will those opportunities work with my schedule. I have no problems going north if I need to. I have a bed waiting on me in Lincoln if I have to chase Nebraska or the Dakotas.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 11:19 AM

I feel like I'm still waiting for the season to start.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:19 AM

I've only chased 3 times all year.

Which would be an all-time low if it should stand.

Which is sad because I've had two 4-chase years. You'd think that record would be safe.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 11:21 AM

I think I'm also at 3. I just want something to look forwards to that isn't next year

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:23 AM

I've been on 4 and there were tornado warnings on half of those chases but nothing worth a damn.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:23 AM

There's gonna be great years, so so years, and bad years.

And I can tell you, I've been highly-experienced the past decade with bad years.

2014, 2016, 2019 - goose eggs.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:24 AM

Yeah, I just wish my bad chase year didn't coincide with my bad personal year.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:25 AM

You just have to keep looking ahead. That is literally all you can do. We should move this to OT, we're kinda off the tracks lol.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:26 AM

I got errands to run, I'll be back later with some cold beer and food.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:26 AM

Sounds good.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:27 AM

I'd like to do an afternoon video chat session if enough people will join.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:27 AM

On here?

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:27 AM

Yep

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 11:27 AM

Thinking about making the drive up to the KS/NE/MO border but not really sure

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:27 AM

I can probably swing it, but I don't know about anyone else

If you're hedging at this point, you've already made your decision.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 11:28 AM

Yeah, I wanna go but nothing to really target so I'm hesitant

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 24-May-20 11:33 AM

I don't mind an afternoon video chat today

@Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) @Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX)

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 24-May-20 11:45 AM

Cool. I'm not sure when I'll be available because I have to take Bridge out later and her timeline is, well......random. But if I'm around when you guys do it I'll be in.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 11:48 AM

Even though the tornado threat doesn't look good, I'm still chasing today in the Texas Panhandle. Going back to the way I used to chase today and that's chase for fun. I've come to the conclusion that this year has been crap for tornadoes and if I want to see anything I got to chase like I used to and I'm okay with that. Looking at visible satellite we have a pretty good amount of clearing in the Texas Panhandle which is allowed instability to rise around 2,000 to 3000 joules. According to the Panhandle, TX/West Texas Mesonet, Panhandle is currently sitting around 79/54. Those dews should rise before 7pm as moisture looks to return around that time. With that being said, storm mode looks to go linear soon after initiation. I think that it would be pretty cool if I could get a beautiful shelf cloud along the Texas prairie.

5

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-May-20 01:41 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 01:52 PM

MCV are like hurricanes in the sense that the added vorticity and helicity will occur in the 0 to 120 degrees range. Basically where the watch is

Cloud cover has overtaken the northern side of the watch. Gonna need advection to get any more cape

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 24-May-20 01:54 PM

Yup....this year seems to be about queue MadTV bit "lowered expectaaaaations".

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 01:55 PM

The vort max and max convergence are still well back in N KS. With the scattered nature as long as no major outflows form this could go for many hours before sfc cape exhausts

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-May-20 02:01 PM

#FortStocktoning time

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 02:25 PM

Area of strong moisture convergence moving across KS/NE border. This is the area to watch for now. Any storms moving right wi have very high helicity and best chance of tors (edited)

The cell in NW MO best example

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 02:35 PM

Status in Papillion. 81/67. Angry cumulus under a cirrus blowoff deck. East wind now. Hodograph on VAD looks like a day for left movers. Stationary front is almost over town but moving N. 2500 cape on RAP and zero cin. What's going to happen?

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 24-May-20 02:47 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) I’m in Overland Park right now. Should I head after that one in NW MO?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 03:00 PM

That puppy is heading into nasty hill country with zero radar range. Bad chase. I'd rather be on the line in S NE. Also a shot just E of KC in that warm sector. Baseball size hail from that cell in N MO. Tons of cape. Or you could wait for another wave in NE KS

KS not looking great on RAP mesoanalysis. MCV moving out means sinking air

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 03:04 PM

Sitting in St. Joe not sure if I should try to stay on that NW MO one or not

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 03:06 PM

I'd go for itz or just south of it. The air is ripe and the outflows should activate more. Tail end Charley always wins

Meanwhile in Nebraska we have a half dozen pulse cells on the line with weak rotation. Nothing dominant so no tors

If anything gets alone up here watch out

Time to mow the lawn...

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 03:42 PM

Towers attempting to go up in the Texas Panhandle.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 24-May-20 03:57 PM

Should I go NE or NW? I’m either gonna take that supercell in NW MO or go for the developing storms in NE KS

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 04:01 PM

That storm in MO has potential. Not sure about the KS new stuff. Maybe?

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 24-May-20 04:01 PM

I figure the MO one is a much better oppurtunity

Mark Jack (Westmoreland, KS) 24-May-20 04:03 PM

I would push for that one but I'd be chasing it for a while as its moving northeast.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 04:03 PM

Weak mammatus here about 50 miles from any storms. The air is juicy af

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 04:11 PM

Thunder in Papillion. In the mammatus. Again...50 miles out

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 04:24 PM

Cell in central otoe county Nebraska. Emdedded meso. Good circ.

The Omaha area has about 2500 cape and lcls are like 100m. Anything that gets up here could have a rain wrapped tor and no one would know.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 04:25 PM

Sitting east of St Joe right now. They don't look like they aren't doing much

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 04:34 PM

Storms in the arc in NE IA mo all of growing concern. They are moving into good cape, low lcls, better shear. It's not even 5pm yet. Long afternoon

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 05:07 PM

Where is this area?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 05:09 PM

There are some embedded mesos along the arc,. One S of Omaha, one on the IA side. Not much velocity. Waiting for things to isolate.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-May-20 05:34 PM

And nothing going... The band never got isolated enough and straight sheer killed everything

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 05:41 PM

Apparently there was a wall cloud rotating slowly on one up in NW MO according to someone on Twitter

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 05:43 PM

2

So peaceful our here.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 24-May-20 05:46 PM

Where was the better environment? If these still have a chance, I'll stay on it but im almost ready to head back

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 05:47 PM

I'm getting so much lightning right now. This is the most peaceful storm I think I've ever chased. The cattle are running it's amazing.

Mark Jack (Westmoreland, KS) 24-May-20 05:49 PM

Looking southeast from Frankfort, Kansas.

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 06:28 PM

She is PO'd

7

Todd Brown (Piedmont, OK) 24-May-20 10:29 PM

Great pictures @Mike Thornton (Norman, OK)

Mike Thornton (Norman, OK) 24-May-20 10:36 PM

Thanks! I have a bunch of lightning photos and video footage to at it tomorrow.