Looks like you're classic June severe weather set up in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Discrete cells look to form in Minnesota in the afternoon hours, soon after the storms form they will merge with each other and head Southeast into Wisconsin as a Squall line. Instability looks to be around 4,500 J kg, with dew points in the upper 60s, winds 18k above the surface look to be around 40-50kts. Cloud cover should not be an issue tomorrow. So radiation will easily be able to reach the ground and heat up the Earth's atmosphere in that area. (edited)

Environmental temps in the 90's too, dews soar into the 70's in the afternoon too, EML holds off convection until atmosphere primes, it's gonna feel really muggy and hot out there

You going out Jake?

It looks to be mainly a nighttime deal out here, so will most likely let it come to me.

With that said I'll be out with family tomorrow evening, so depending on timing I may intercept something on the way back here.

I am going to be chasing. Its basically my chasing back yard. The only limiting factor will be the riots/closed roads/curfew. What a crazy year. I hope to get my car back in the same shape it starts in as well. I honestly don't think much of the tornado potential. But, I would like to see some big hail.

Sig wind contour added

Guess I'm gonna have to head west and let the run me over tonight.

WY trollnado

Its target area choice time...

I think I will target Redwood Falls MN. I should be able to get there a little bit after 3pm CDT. Re evaluate based on Surface OBS from there.

I am not liking the trend of the last 2 HRRR runs

i would have said mankato madness this morning but, moisture convergence there is bad after that gust front. much better in SE SD

there is divergene at the surafce in S MN. a killer for tors. you'll end up with a derecho probably. but SE SD near yankton on the NE border looks better and better. main fail mode = HUGE T-TD gap. 93/64. storms wont' fire until very late if they gonna fire. MN has bettter storm chances but high end severe will be limited

latest rap has the convergence target shifting pretty quickly, into sioux falls area now and NW iowa. maybe it will get to SW MN / Mankato tonight. odd thing is, all of the SCP is behind the front....that's weird

A TOR in CO, what do you expect

I see that pivotal weather now added every single state as an option for the HRRR. Love it.

And that TOR produced 3 landspouts, #2020ing

https://twitter.com/MikeNelson247/status/1267909886119038976

Looks like the mankato magic worked

Man, I DO NOT miss chasing in Wisconsin. Here is your typical Wisconsin June Severe Weather setup.

Quite a nice gustnado. May have been a weak tor, not sure. It was called in as a gustnado. Unfortunatly My footage is very dark, I had the exposure set to nightime lighning mode... It was some beautiful structure. And so much dust, it was a MN haboob...

https://www.facebook.com/22017566/posts/10103776956600711/?d=n

Nice Mike.

wait the HRRR now displays state views for every state?

it used to on pivotal but now I don't see it.

They must have made it for paying members

could be. I paid.

so we made a subscription for HRRR for paid members. But don’t worry, you unpayers still get.... Minnesota

The benefits of being a paid subscriber. it's not like they're asking for much either. It's only $7 a month. Definitely worth it in my opinion.

@Jacob Punch (Kansas City) Well its the only state that counts so...

It used to be free though. Adding features for paying users is cool but taking features away isn't

HRRR only had a few states

I'm glad they switched to a paid version. People do not realize how much it costs to keep all of those models running along with the website. (edited)

Besides, almost all of the features that we had before still exist in the free version. Euro clickable soundings was the only thing they took away from the free version, and even those were only added within the last 6 months

I'm not saying the paid content is bad. I'm saying taking stuff away to make it paid is.

Honestly I'm just happy they didn't make the entire site paywalled like many other model sites, they very well could have