Stormtrack - 06-09-2020_ks

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Jun-20 05:49 PM

Surface Low FTW

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-Jun-20 07:15 PM

tomorrow gonna be huge

take that to the bank

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-Jun-20 11:13 PM

Will be interesting to see what effect Cristobal will have on the system over here(if any)

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 01:21 AM

Y’all will see today’s event outplay every other event this week

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 01:30 AM

Lies we tell ourselves

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 01:56 AM

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 19-20Z THEN SPREAD EAST ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER REGION AS STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS TOWARD THE MO VALLEY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO INCREASING TORNADO PROBS ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER WHERE FAVORABLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHEAR. OTHERWISE, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS.

5

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 02:08 AM

LOCK IT IN

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 02:24 AM

UGH WHAT DO I DO

frat party or chase

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 02:26 AM

Well, in my experience, frat parties are late, so chase, then party

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 02:27 AM

Ya but it’s in manhattan

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 02:31 AM

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 06:38 AM

I’m actually legit excited about today

Mark Jack (Westmoreland, KS) 09-Jun-20 07:21 AM

Came into work early so I can get off early and head north. Haha

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 07:54 AM

Same, except west

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 08:56 AM

I think I might target Beatrice. Not sure if it's too far south though

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 09:04 AM

I’m thinking Belleville KS

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 09:04 AM

For initiation?

I was looking at later hours so I should proably look closer to there

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 09-Jun-20 09:05 AM

ENH added to KS/NE with a 10% unhatched tor

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 09:37 AM

How is cell service up in this area? I've got Verizon.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 09:39 AM

Should be fine

Couple holes in extreme northeast ks

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 09:41 AM

When I was up near the Marysville and Seneca area, I had issues. Those must be the holes then

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 09-Jun-20 09:46 AM

I guess today is a day to go chasing. Looks like it will be one of the better setups this year.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 10:04 AM

@Jacob Punch (Kansas City) you chase.

I think I'll start out near Washington, KS and see what happens from there

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 09-Jun-20 10:06 AM

That’s what I was thinking, between Washington and Marysville, KS.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 10:20 AM

Marysville to Belleville to start for me (edited)

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 09-Jun-20 10:52 AM

Belleville would be a good start.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 11:02 AM

Just hope I make it in time. Waiting for a buddy to meet me here. Hopefully be outta here and jetting west on 36 by noon-12:30

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 11:03 AM

Same. I got my dad to come along but he's trying to finish stuff at home right now.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 11:10 AM

a separate channel just for my triple point I'm so jelly

maryville is good, btu i'd prefer to stay on the nebraska side between beatrice and deshler

HRRR has multiple high UH cells in the 0-3KM range from SC NEB early around 3pm into the lincoln area by 6pm

SRH maximizes as we get towards 6-7pm, best change for tornadoes IMO, could be very messy as PWET is very high, expect HP monsters just like yesterday

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 11:19 AM

Isn't initiation farther SW than beatrice? I think that's why I like the KS side to start with

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 09-Jun-20 11:33 AM

HRRR showing a couple earlier cells firing closer to I80....then the rest of the show fires back SW on the KS side likely.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 11:33 AM

If u believe HRRR, initiation will occur about 75mi west of Beatrice

In this triple point setup I expect some early pops near the TP. Then a ripcord working ESE

Cell motion rapid to the NNE with right Turner's bring the target cells once they deviate

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 12:11 PM

https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2020060915_009_40.16--96.41.png

1

7pm beatrice, ne

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 12:23 PM

going

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 12:35 PM

I’m heading out within the hour

Mark Jack (Westmoreland, KS) 09-Jun-20 12:39 PM

I'll be up in Marysville around 4 ish.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 09-Jun-20 12:55 PM

The post frontal winds will be insane on the backside of this system.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 12:57 PM

should I chase?

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 01:00 PM

If you have to ask...

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 01:01 PM

It's 10% tor

What do you think

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 01:01 PM

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 01:34 PM

Looks like clouds are starting to come in. Hopefully that won't be an issue

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 09-Jun-20 01:35 PM

Where at? I see fair weather cumulus on the warm side and overcast on the cool side. Nothing upper level to cause any issues yet.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 01:35 PM

The fair weather cumulus, just wanting there.to be as much heating as it can get

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 09-Jun-20 01:37 PM

Gotcha. Ya, i doubt that hinders too much of the insolation.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 01:42 PM

TD gaps are near 20F as highs get near 90/70

we need some clouds to keep from blowing our gaps

i'd like to see 85/70 ideally, keep LCL's around 1000

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 02:07 PM

it's 93/71 here in papillion, well NE of the area of interest, so it's juicy out there for sure

trust the climatology: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/climographics/all_torn/162.png

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 02:10 PM

I’m westbound on hwy 36 near Hiawatha

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 02:12 PM

maryville, belleville, hebron, beatrice would be my target area, i'm going for the N side

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 02:13 PM

En route to Belleville, still an hour and a half out.. may change from there

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 02:28 PM

Haven’t left my house yet

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 02:37 PM

Not gonna go out?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 02:40 PM

quite the frenetic forecast, feels like either a big day, or a bust, not sure of what failure modes are right now

we could get too much crapvection early, taht would hurt our prime time 6-8pm zone. or we could get an early bow-echo that just crushes the warm sector

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 02:41 PM

I’ll probably be leaving later. No point in leaving yet. No point in going all the way to ‘Maryville

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 02:42 PM

there will be good tor potential all the way to KC, depending on how this triple point zippers

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 02:55 PM

lightnign just S of i-80 west of lincoln

cells forming are fairly tall, skinny, but appear to not be multi-cellular, could be a mini-supercell storm mode in that region

they appear to be elevated, but as they zipper south i expect surface based storms will form

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 03:00 PM

I’m just gonna wait. No point in going anywhere yet. I believe that the 10% will actually get moved further into NW MO and NE KS.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 03:01 PM

current storms still firign behidn the front. we got a long way to go

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 03:02 PM

exactly

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Jun-20 03:06 PM

Tor watch by 2:30 pm likely (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 03:17 PM

new HRRRRv4 https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRRV4/2020060918/CGP/HRRRV4CGP_con_uphlysw_008.png

1

that's some blue, boys. wedges

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 09-Jun-20 03:35 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSTopeka/status/1270439140362874880

NWS Topeka (@NWSTopeka)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska until 10 PM CDT

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 03:42 PM

80/20 bois

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 03:43 PM

what a disgrace to a watch

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 03:53 PM

You’re only mad you’re not out here

3

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 03:54 PM

Oh i will be out soon!

Storms fear me so much, whenever I go out they hide

1

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 04:31 PM

Brad's storm looks nice

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 04:35 PM

Where's he at?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 04:41 PM

Just north of Hebron

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 04:57 PM

Looks like cell is now splitting

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 05:04 PM

Just as I got on it

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 05:09 PM

Well I mean it is a right split, I'm gonna give it a chance and see if it can deviate storm motion and ingest some more SRH and get going

also wondering if it's trying to ride that boundary (edited)

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 05:17 PM

I'm not seeing anything promising yet

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 05:35 PM

Some promising cells in KS, watching Eric Kelly on one, looks to have a good inflow tail going for it

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 05:39 PM

Nebraska storms are a trap right now. KS cells are the hope

The stuff west of Lincoln is all behind the front

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 05:41 PM

Everything is west of Lincoln

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 06:06 PM

KS line is going,. Slowly. Finally

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 06:07 PM

Can they stop going north

That would be nice

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 06:15 PM

Where is Duda? I'm calling a bust

It's not official until he is summoned and trolls us

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 06:30 PM

The cell i'm watching went SVR, nice

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 06:35 PM

Moving towards Maryville now

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 06:38 PM

Is this cell splitting already

https://twitter.com/wx_chip/status/1270486363641655297

Chip Redmond (@wx_chip)

Splitting supercell in northern Pottawattamie county. Right split looks soft. #kswx

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 07:08 PM

Tor warm near fairbury

Tor behind the front, what the shit

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 07:09 PM

And I'm stuck going east to Marysville

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 09-Jun-20 07:09 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 07:10 PM

Jefferson county, always. Most tors per square mile in the country

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 07:10 PM

I love how the ass cell

TOR'd

#2020ing

2

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 07:12 PM

I think im solo chasing from here on out

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 07:12 PM

And the right split is now gonna merge with another cell

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 07:12 PM

Or driving

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Jun-20 07:18 PM

Bryce Kintigh: Eating Hardee's 400 people: Interesting

https://twitter.com/spotternetwork/status/1270496883597873152 ok

Spotter Network Inc (@spotternetwork)

Evnt 2 miles NNW of VERMILLION, KS @ 23:23 UTC Funnel>-Large funnel now need tornado warning.

https://twitter.com/DelCrossV/status/1270497771980800001

Adam Springer (@DelCrossV)

Just caught this funnel cloud just N of Vermilion, KS. @NWSTopeka #KSwx

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 09-Jun-20 07:36 PM

5

I got it!

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 07:37 PM

Nice!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 07:37 PM

Confirmed tor cell in Jefferson county about to merge with cell. Could get interesting

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-Jun-20 08:27 PM

that was the storm I’ve been watching

I directed my friend to that storm

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jun-20 08:38 PM

https://twitter.com/HonkBonerfart/status/1270510843667443712

French Storm Hunt Hank (@HonkBonerfart)

#tornado #funnel north Vermillion Kansas USA! @weatherchannel #frenchstormhunt #tornante https://t.co/F0Yb5BdEJE

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 09-Jun-20 08:41 PM

Love the Twitter handle.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jun-20 08:44 PM

me too...lol.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 09:44 PM

Just got home in Omaha. We just got curbstomped with 60mph winds for like 45 mins all while it's pouring blinding rain. Way to core punch ourselves.

I was outside my car for maybe 10 seconds and I'm soaked

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Jun-20 09:50 PM

dang, sounds like a tropical system.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Jun-20 10:01 PM

Just lost power for a sec. Winds forecast to be up to 65 mph overnight. With rain. It's like a fucking hurricane

cricketkepler 09-Jun-20 10:14 PM

@Payton (Lawrence, KS) y?

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 10:38 PM

I prefer being the one making the decisions and Everytime I've been with someone, they've wanted to head back when we still had chances. Things like that

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 10:39 PM

I get what you mean

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 10:50 PM

I personally would love someone else with me actually knowledgeable about storms. (edited)

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 09-Jun-20 10:59 PM

My dad is knowledgeable but with aviation related weather, not so much spotting

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 09-Jun-20 11:01 PM

@Payton (Lawrence, KS) also, a partner that doesn't bail lol

I'm definitely of the "you gotta stick around if there's an opportunity" mind (edited)

And even if not, you can post up and watch it ride into the distance for a sweet timelapse (edited)