...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 89.7W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Royce, how does an IKE of 63 stand against some of the most impactful TCs in the ATL basin?

so one alterantive method of meaasuring storm intensity and damage potential is the integrated kinetic energy

RITA, cat 3 at landfall, IKE of 30, SDP of 2.97

wilma when it finally hit florida, IKE of 17, SDP of 2.1

Katrina, IKE of 127, SDP of 5.2

The NHC is only calling for relatively average storm surge rn

They'll probs need to adjust up

they just uppoed to 3-5 feet in SE LA, put out a surge warning

the IKE / SDP isn't just about surge high or wind speed, it factors in the areal coverage likely

so this storm, would be expected to have a surge more damaging than RITA, but less than katrina

simply due to the massive area hit by the surge

so for instance. a recenty study showed that 16B$ of homes was at risk of surge flooding from a cat 1 storm in Louisiana. not really a great estimate based on what we know about surge and cats (edited)

a typical cat 1 storm has an SDP of 2-3. if we're at SDP 4, that damage will be closer to that of a cat 2/3 storm (edited)

so damage estimates could likely end up in the 10-30B$ range from this small storm, depending on the landfall, rain, etc

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1269013519350902785

posted a link to the IKE and SDP article from ametsoc in #stormtrack-academy

i feel like IKE and SDP give a much better understanding of storm threat than categories. cristobol is forecast to have an SDP of 4 out of 6, which is more than most cat 1/2 hurricanes. so i think if we used SDP we'd have a much better public response to evacauations.

i mean if katrina was a 5.2, and this is a 4.1, and you're in NOLA right now, you should be taking this very seriously

U.S. Rainfall QPF (from WPC)

Recon is en route

Current recon mission found a peak SFMR of 52kt, with multiple 45kt+ SFMRs that ain't suspiciously contaminated or "improper" readings due to spiking rain rates

The most conservatively acceptable reading(s) would suggest an upgrade to 45kt (or 50kt, depending if the reading(s) are to be flagged or taken as true); this suggests an interesting ~42-50hrs ahead for LA

This system is doing good even with all the dry air on the south and west side of it. Good thing it's there because with out it it would really be intensifying rapidly. (edited)

At the moment it's over 26-27c water. By tomorrow it should be over 27-28C water and for the rest of its journey to the gulf coast.

Hmmm... not really

Cool in the north gulf except for on the coast

Doesn’t matter much since these waters are warm enough to support anything this system will dish out

The main inhibitor is dry air

The air force recon plane is enroute rn, the original one didn't takeoff because it had a problem with it (edited)

Tropical Tidbits ocean analysis shows SST about a degree warmer in the gulf.

45kt suspect SFMR

HMMI based

Seems legit

Those category three Hudson Bay hurricanes are tricky

Cristobal just a bit more windy this time around

Yikes 2 inches of rain from Cristobal

Might cause widespread flooding

Wouldn’t be surprised if they put out a moderate risk for excessive rainfall

The dropsondes in the western part of the storm still show a pretty moist environment. It starts to dry out around 500-400mb, but for the most part not crazy dry. It will be interesting to see how much dry air it sucks into the circulation and how much it affects it.

Wow Euro is showing Cristobal dumping 4-5 inches of rain over the upper mississippi valley

NHC has it 45 now

Still have it peaking at 60

and producing 70 mph wind gusts near Green Bay WI

and reaching a minimum pressure of 981 mb in the Midwest

Getting close to being the strongest storm of the season so far

Well this is different

yikes

Maintaining tropical status that far inland

an inland tropical cyclone would be a very 2020 thing to do

Cristobal is making an attempt at getting convection around the center on the northwest side. The system in general is beginning to look slightly more organized with some attempts of convection in the southern and eastern side of the storm closer to the center.

It's early season, so the storm will act like late season, quick N to NE pull, slow merger with extra tropical low. But importantly the baroclinic instability will cause it to potentially hold it's strength or increase as it transition

Any chance of christobal being a hurricane?

I think its eating too much dry air

If they can call Barry a hurricane.. lol

It's got that classic coma shape look to it indicative of dry air intrusion

Reminds me a bit of Cindy

They didn’t upgrade Barry a hurricane because of its structure, they had surface one and recon to support it. Weak convection just didn’t allow most of the winds to translate inland

True

I assume the hurricane force winds were displaced to the southeast

There was one land hurricane wind speed observation, in a platform off a coastal marsh

ignore the captions but these are the first and second rain bands to hit the Biloxi area

that looks like a wall cloud

There wasn’t any rotation and the shelf just passed

But we’ll be getting the right front quadrant so this is the first place I’m coming to if I see anything of that nature

But that was definitely a well defined updraft

Cristobal is turning more into a wind machine, very messy TS

I wonder how it'll perform once remnants are near the US-Canada border

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1269311483122348032

A PRE and rainfall from Cristobal itself

there is going to be some bad flooding in the Midwest and South

What a mess of a storm

i'm very stoked for this storm locally. all of the models have this thing deepening after landfall when it goes post tropical and interacts with the system to the northwest

i'm hoping we can get at least some tornado threat out of this

https://twitter.com/weatherbryan/status/1269412590318485505

https://twitter.com/News6Justin/status/1269415099254673408

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1269440342862020609?s=21

Christobal really seems to be struggling to reach it's projected 60 MPH peak for some reason

Though "Legit tropical storm-like conditions in Great Lakes" isn't all that shocking or rare. Extratropical windstorms producing 40-50 mph gusts in my area and 35-55 mph sustained winds + heavy seas on the lakes as well as coastal flooding are common in fall and winter. (edited)

There's also the occasional hurricane-strength storms which damage costal property and cause shipwrecks in a similar fashion to hurricanes (the 1913 storm being the worst and most infamous one).

The lakes are no stranger to hurricane-like conditions

Ensembles dumping a lot of rain in WI

Well the NHC bumped the forecast peak down to 45kt, so it doesn’t have to struggle with that anymore ^

Ew more rain

Some rivers are already flooding around here

Woah Christobal is looking like a late season STS off the mid-atlantic coast

https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1269684160534323203

I'm curious if we'll see any kind of interaction based tornado threat (edited)

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1269726246008741888

Man Cristobal was much stronger than I expected

Hoping for a lightning show

https://twitter.com/cooperwx00/status/1269672959293247488

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 510 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC) along the coast of southeast Louisiana between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Grand Isle. Maximum sustained winds were estimated near 50 mph (85 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 992 mb (29.29 inches). A Weatherflow site on Ship Island, Mississippi, has recently observed a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). A Weatherflow site near Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

I can see clouds on leading edge of Cristobal’s circulation

A little bit of Kelvin Helmholtz wave

Seeing some outer bands here, too

Awesome!

I love watching the convection blow up and circle the center counterclockwise, super cool to see

ECWMF is showing 76 mph gusts over Lake Michigan

and 60 mph gusts over much of SE WI

ECWMF has been on the high end for winds. Wouldn't shock me but I expect 45-55 gusts to be common

ECMWF is also showing 15 footers on Lake Michigan, it's gonna get really rough out there

Probably will be costal flooding on WI lake Michigan shoreline and on the eastern coast of the Door Peninsula if the ECMWF solution pans out.

ECMWF is also dumping 3.5 inches of rain over me over the next 5 days and both GFS and Euro giving me 35-50 mph gusts. (edited)

I mean storms like this in this region are not uncommon, but they are more of an autumn and winter thing, they are much more rare in summer.

@Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) how’s it going there?

Great, we've had thunderstorms worse than this.

Yeah nola totally got skimped by the storm

Pensacola 100 miles from the center got far more impacts

Gonna have to get ready tomorrow, expected to hit us in the morn and then end late Wednesday morning. They say we could get the most of it in our state due to the track.

Now Cristobal is dropping Bowling Ball sized hail. (edited)

I hoped it would go more east. We don't need THAT much rain.

Well this will be the first time I will get to "chase" a tropical weather setup. The low is modeled to track right over my part of MN (edited)

Enjoy!

I’m under a flash flood watch now, could get up to 2” of rain from this.

What a path

Can't believe I am actually tracking one of these on my own turf

I'm looking at it right now outside my window

Meanwhile me sad montreal noises with no tropical activity every year whatsoever

and even storms are sad

Starting to get rain now

https://twitter.com/NStewCBS2/status/1270461814531338240

https://twitter.com/NStewCBS2/status/1270491689019420674

since 1989 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wettest_tropical_cyclones_in_the_United_States#Iowa

Having a heavy rain band move through currently.

Accumulated over .70 inches of rain over the past 3 hours, another heavy round in the next hour or two and steady rain to continue overnight. Might reach up to 2 inches at this rate.

Winds are starting to pick up and gust a tiny bit

Imagine if this was all snow.

Between bands, had an intense shower form on me to bridge the gap, probably will up my totals.

Had a quarter inch over the past hour, brings my total up to .96. Second heavy band currently making it's way in.

Up to 1.22, still raining heavy

Cristobal declared extratropical, RIP so close to getting a TC here lmao

Winds gusting up to 40 mph around here (edited)

So far my experience with Cristobal feels a lot like a typical November cyclonic wind/rain storm. In it's extratropical state it resembles one too.

Not a system you typically see around here in summer

Wisconsin River running high due to rain from Cristobal, the cold front event might produce another quarter inch tonight

So Cristobal caused gale-force gusts (38 mph recorded by the nearest NWS station, but probably higher in some surrounding spots, especially down streets which act as wind tunnels) and 2 inches of rain in my area. There was some minor tree damage (saw some small branches broken off and a couple small/young trees uprooted when driving around). WI River ran high for a bit. Overall akin to an lower-to-average autumn storm. (edited)

Y?

we're all wondering why the channel is still here

kill it

i forgot

At last, she can rest in peace

amen

Ashes to ashes?

etc