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EVENT ARCHIVE / cristobal-discussion-2020
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 05-Jun-20 05:13 PM
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 89.7W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Jun-20 05:14 PM
Royce, how does an IKE of 63 stand against some of the most impactful TCs in the ATL basin?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jun-20 05:15 PM
so one alterantive method of meaasuring storm intensity and damage potential is the integrated kinetic energy
RITA, cat 3 at landfall, IKE of 30, SDP of 2.97
wilma when it finally hit florida, IKE of 17, SDP of 2.1
Katrina, IKE of 127, SDP of 5.2
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Jun-20 05:16 PM
The NHC is only calling for relatively average storm surge rn
They'll probs need to adjust up
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jun-20 05:16 PM
they just uppoed to 3-5 feet in SE LA, put out a surge warning
the IKE / SDP isn't just about surge high or wind speed, it factors in the areal coverage likely
so this storm, would be expected to have a surge more damaging than RITA, but less than katrina
simply due to the massive area hit by the surge
so for instance. a recenty study showed that 16B$ of homes was at risk of surge flooding from a cat 1 storm in Louisiana. not really a great estimate based on what we know about surge and cats (edited)
a typical cat 1 storm has an SDP of 2-3. if we're at SDP 4, that damage will be closer to that of a cat 2/3 storm (edited)
so damage estimates could likely end up in the 10-30B$ range from this small storm, depending on the landfall, rain, etc
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 05-Jun-20 05:25 PM
Excellent new peak storm surge graphics from the National #Hurricane Center this year. Here's the latest one for Tropical Storm #Cristobal.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Jun-20 05:27 PM
posted a link to the IKE and SDP article from ametsoc in #stormtrack-academy
i feel like IKE and SDP give a much better understanding of storm threat than categories. cristobol is forecast to have an SDP of 4 out of 6, which is more than most cat 1/2 hurricanes. so i think if we used SDP we'd have a much better public response to evacauations.
i mean if katrina was a 5.2, and this is a 4.1, and you're in NOLA right now, you should be taking this very seriously
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 05-Jun-20 05:40 PM
U.S. Rainfall QPF (from WPC)
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Jun-20 05:56 PM
Recon is en route
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Jun-20 06:11 PM
Current recon mission found a peak SFMR of 52kt, with multiple 45kt+ SFMRs that ain't suspiciously contaminated or "improper" readings due to spiking rain rates
The most conservatively acceptable reading(s) would suggest an upgrade to 45kt (or 50kt, depending if the reading(s) are to be flagged or taken as true); this suggests an interesting ~42-50hrs ahead for LA
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Ardent(North Georgia) 05-Jun-20 06:17 PM
This system is doing good even with all the dry air on the south and west side of it. Good thing it's there because with out it it would really be intensifying rapidly. (edited)
At the moment it's over 26-27c water. By tomorrow it should be over 27-28C water and for the rest of its journey to the gulf coast.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Jun-20 07:04 PM
Hmmm... not really
Cool in the north gulf except for on the coast
Doesn’t matter much since these waters are warm enough to support anything this system will dish out
The main inhibitor is dry air
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 05-Jun-20 07:08 PM
The air force recon plane is enroute rn, the original one didn't takeoff because it had a problem with it (edited)
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Ardent(North Georgia) 05-Jun-20 07:26 PM
Tropical Tidbits ocean analysis shows SST about a degree warmer in the gulf.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Jun-20 09:30 PM
45kt suspect SFMR
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Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 05-Jun-20 09:30 PM
huh 9
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 05-Jun-20 09:31 PM
HMMI based
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Jun-20 09:31 PM
Seems legit
Those category three Hudson Bay hurricanes are tricky
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 05-Jun-20 10:05 PM
Cristobal just a bit more windy this time around
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Brad D. (Cascade, IA) 05-Jun-20 10:11 PM
Yikes 2 inches of rain from Cristobal
Might cause widespread flooding
Wouldn’t be surprised if they put out a moderate risk for excessive rainfall
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Ardent(North Georgia) 05-Jun-20 10:15 PM
The dropsondes in the western part of the storm still show a pretty moist environment. It starts to dry out around 500-400mb, but for the most part not crazy dry. It will be interesting to see how much dry air it sucks into the circulation and how much it affects it.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Jun-20 10:43 PM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 05-Jun-20 10:49 PM
Wow Euro is showing Cristobal dumping 4-5 inches of rain over the upper mississippi valley
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Jun-20 10:50 PM
NHC has it 45 now
Still have it peaking at 60
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 05-Jun-20 10:52 PM
and producing 70 mph wind gusts near Green Bay WI
and reaching a minimum pressure of 981 mb in the Midwest
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Jun-20 08:04 AM
Getting close to being the strongest storm of the season so far
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Jun-20 08:36 AM
Well this is different
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Jun-20 10:57 AM
yikes
Maintaining tropical status that far inland
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 06-Jun-20 11:02 AM
an inland tropical cyclone would be a very 2020 thing to do
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Ardent(North Georgia) 06-Jun-20 11:17 AM
Cristobal is making an attempt at getting convection around the center on the northwest side. The system in general is beginning to look slightly more organized with some attempts of convection in the southern and eastern side of the storm closer to the center.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Jun-20 11:39 AM
It's early season, so the storm will act like late season, quick N to NE pull, slow merger with extra tropical low. But importantly the baroclinic instability will cause it to potentially hold it's strength or increase as it transition
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Jun-20 02:43 PM
Any chance of christobal being a hurricane?
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 06-Jun-20 02:49 PM
I think its eating too much dry air
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Jun-20 03:46 PM
If they can call Barry a hurricane.. lol
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Jun-20 04:35 PM
It's got that classic coma shape look to it indicative of dry air intrusion
Reminds me a bit of Cindy
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jun-20 04:36 PM
They didn’t upgrade Barry a hurricane because of its structure, they had surface one and recon to support it. Weak convection just didn’t allow most of the winds to translate inland
this 5
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Jun-20 04:38 PM
True
I assume the hurricane force winds were displaced to the southeast
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Jun-20 04:50 PM
There was one land hurricane wind speed observation, in a platform off a coastal marsh
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Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 06-Jun-20 05:48 PM
ignore the captions but these are the first and second rain bands to hit the Biloxi area
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 06-Jun-20 05:50 PM
that looks like a wall cloud
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Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 06-Jun-20 05:53 PM
There wasn’t any rotation and the shelf just passed
But we’ll be getting the right front quadrant so this is the first place I’m coming to if I see anything of that nature
But that was definitely a well defined updraft
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 06-Jun-20 06:47 PM
Cristobal is turning more into a wind machine, very messy TS
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Jun-20 06:55 PM
I wonder how it'll perform once remnants are near the US-Canada border
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 06-Jun-20 06:55 PM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 06-Jun-20 06:58 PM
While eyes are focused on Cristobal, do not lose sight on a potential Predecessor Rainfall Event or PRE across the Northern Plains on Mon-Tues. Warm, moist tropical air pumped up ahead of it along a front will lead to slow moving T'storms and potential for flash flooding.
A PRE and rainfall from Cristobal itself
there is going to be some bad flooding in the Midwest and South
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Jun-20 07:06 PM
What a mess of a storm
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Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 06-Jun-20 07:29 PM
i'm very stoked for this storm locally. all of the models have this thing deepening after landfall when it goes post tropical and interacts with the system to the northwest
i'm hoping we can get at least some tornado threat out of this
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Jun-20 07:39 PM
Current view of the tornado moving into downtown Orlando! THIS TORNADO IS IN THE GROUND AT 733PM. It moved into the Thornton Park area. Transformers are exploding. @NWSMelbourne
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Jun-20 08:02 PM
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 06-Jun-20 10:01 PM
When the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal reach the Great Lakes, it will combine with a middle-latitude storm and really turn into a major June wind-storm. This is Tuesday-Wednesday. 📅 Legit tropical storm-like conditions in Great Lakes. 🌀 ECMWF 12z parallel:
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Jun-20 04:58 AM
Christobal really seems to be struggling to reach it's projected 60 MPH peak for some reason
Though "Legit tropical storm-like conditions in Great Lakes" isn't all that shocking or rare. Extratropical windstorms producing 40-50 mph gusts in my area and 35-55 mph sustained winds + heavy seas on the lakes as well as coastal flooding are common in fall and winter. (edited)
There's also the occasional hurricane-strength storms which damage costal property and cause shipwrecks in a similar fashion to hurricanes (the 1913 storm being the worst and most infamous one).
The lakes are no stranger to hurricane-like conditions
Ensembles dumping a lot of rain in WI
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Jun-20 05:48 AM
Well the NHC bumped the forecast peak down to 45kt, so it doesn’t have to struggle with that anymore ^
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Brad D. (Cascade, IA) 07-Jun-20 10:34 AM
Ew more rain
Some rivers are already flooding around here
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Jun-20 11:13 AM
Woah Christobal is looking like a late season STS off the mid-atlantic coast
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 07-Jun-20 01:35 PM
White caps forming on Lakeshore Drive on the New Orleans Lakefront. @NWSNewOrleans @WGNOtv @HankAllenWX @BrookeLaizer_Wx
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 07-Jun-20 04:10 PM
I'm curious if we'll see any kind of interaction based tornado threat (edited)
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Jun-20 04:27 PM
A little breezy at Orange Beach… photo from Joey Caldwell
Yao 3
Man Cristobal was much stronger than I expected
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 07-Jun-20 04:43 PM
Hoping for a lightning show
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Marty (NW TN) 07-Jun-20 04:49 PM
Small features will determine the extent of the severe weather this week across the Midwest. Trough diving in behind Cristobal could make things interesting for some severe weather. https://t.co/EQEfJ1tmkx
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Jun-20 06:34 PM
Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 510 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC) along the coast of southeast Louisiana between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Grand Isle. Maximum sustained winds were estimated near 50 mph (85 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 992 mb (29.29 inches). A Weatherflow site on Ship Island, Mississippi, has recently observed a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). A Weatherflow site near Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).
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GanondorfMain7606 07-Jun-20 08:15 PM
I can see clouds on leading edge of Cristobal’s circulation
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GanondorfMain7606 07-Jun-20 08:27 PM
A little bit of Kelvin Helmholtz wave
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Cait French (Nashville, TN) 07-Jun-20 08:45 PM
Seeing some outer bands here, too
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 07-Jun-20 09:03 PM
Awesome!
I love watching the convection blow up and circle the center counterclockwise, super cool to see
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 07-Jun-20 10:04 PM
ECWMF is showing 76 mph gusts over Lake Michigan
and 60 mph gusts over much of SE WI
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 07-Jun-20 10:41 PM
ECWMF has been on the high end for winds. Wouldn't shock me but I expect 45-55 gusts to be common
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Jun-20 10:43 PM
ECMWF is also showing 15 footers on Lake Michigan, it's gonna get really rough out there
Probably will be costal flooding on WI lake Michigan shoreline and on the eastern coast of the Door Peninsula if the ECMWF solution pans out.
ECMWF is also dumping 3.5 inches of rain over me over the next 5 days and both GFS and Euro giving me 35-50 mph gusts. (edited)
I mean storms like this in this region are not uncommon, but they are more of an autumn and winter thing, they are much more rare in summer.
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 08-Jun-20 02:29 AM
@Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) how’s it going there?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 08-Jun-20 02:30 AM
Great, we've had thunderstorms worse than this.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Jun-20 03:15 AM
Yeah nola totally got skimped by the storm
Pensacola 100 miles from the center got far more impacts
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Brad D. (Cascade, IA) 08-Jun-20 04:28 AM
Gonna have to get ready tomorrow, expected to hit us in the morn and then end late Wednesday morning. They say we could get the most of it in our state due to the track.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 08-Jun-20 01:52 PM
Now Cristobal is dropping Bowling Ball sized hail. troll (edited)
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 08-Jun-20 03:18 PM
🇨🇦 2
🇼 1
🇮 1
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Mike W [WXØMIK] (Mankato, MN) 08-Jun-20 10:45 PM
I hoped it would go more east. We don't need THAT much rain.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Jun-20 10:48 PM
Well this will be the first time I will get to "chase" a tropical weather setup. 😜 The low is modeled to track right over my part of MN (edited)
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Mike W [WXØMIK] (Mankato, MN) 09-Jun-20 07:46 AM
Enjoy!
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 01:00 PM
I’m under a flash flood watch now, could get up to 2” of rain from this.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 02:37 PM
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 09-Jun-20 02:38 PM
What a path
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 02:48 PM
Can't believe I am actually tracking one of these on my own turf
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Mike W [WXØMIK] (Mankato, MN) 09-Jun-20 05:22 PM
I'm looking at it right now outside my window
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 09-Jun-20 05:42 PM
Meanwhile me sad montreal noises with no tropical activity every year whatsoever
and even storms are sad
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Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 09-Jun-20 05:52 PM
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 06:03 PM
Starting to get rain now
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 09-Jun-20 07:02 PM
It's official! @NWSWPC keeps #Cristobal as a tropical system in Iowa, making it the first time since 1900 Iowa has had a tropical low pass through the state! #IAwx
Latest surface analysis from WPC confirms the low in southeast Iowa at 992mb. We'll have to wait for the official post-storm analysis by NHC to say with 100 percent certainty, but it's looking very likely.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 08:15 PM
Having a heavy rain band move through currently.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 09:21 PM
Accumulated over .70 inches of rain over the past 3 hours, another heavy round in the next hour or two and steady rain to continue overnight. Might reach up to 2 inches at this rate.
Winds are starting to pick up and gust a tiny bit
Imagine if this was all snow.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 10:04 PM
Between bands, had an intense shower form on me to bridge the gap, probably will up my totals.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 10:19 PM
Had a quarter inch over the past hour, brings my total up to .96. Second heavy band currently making it's way in.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 11:16 PM
Up to 1.22, still raining heavy
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 11:27 PM
Cristobal declared extratropical, RIP so close to getting a TC here lmao
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Jun-20 11:37 PM
Winds gusting up to 40 mph around here (edited)
So far my experience with Cristobal feels a lot like a typical November cyclonic wind/rain storm. In it's extratropical state it resembles one too.
Not a system you typically see around here in summer
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 10-Jun-20 02:33 PM
Wisconsin River running high due to rain from Cristobal, the cold front event might produce another quarter inch tonight
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Jun-20 05:49 AM
So Cristobal caused gale-force gusts (38 mph recorded by the nearest NWS station, but probably higher in some surrounding spots, especially down streets which act as wind tunnels) and 2 inches of rain in my area. There was some minor tree damage (saw some small branches broken off and a couple small/young trees uprooted when driving around). WI River ran high for a bit. Overall akin to an lower-to-average autumn storm. (edited)
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Max (Saint John, NB) 21-Jun-20 12:43 AM
thonk
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 21-Jun-20 12:43 AM
thonk
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 21-Jun-20 01:03 AM
thonk
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Jun-20 01:19 AM
thonk
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 21-Jun-20 01:36 AM
thonk
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Jun-20 02:11 AM
thonk
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 21-Jun-20 09:13 AM
Y?
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 21-Jun-20 09:40 AM
we're all wondering why the channel is still here
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 21-Jun-20 12:46 PM
kill it Spann
this 6
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Ardent(North Georgia) 21-Jun-20 01:56 PM
thonk
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 21-Jun-20 10:11 PM
i forgot
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 21-Jun-20 10:11 PM
At last, she can rest in peace
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KIRK F. (LINCOLN, NE) 21-Jun-20 10:46 PM
amen
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 21-Jun-20 10:49 PM
Ashes to ashes?
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KIRK F. (LINCOLN, NE) 21-Jun-20 10:50 PM
etc
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