Stormtrack - hurricane-delta-2020

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Oct-20 09:12 PM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start#contents

850mb and 500mb gfs 114 hrs 18z

GFS 114hrs showing 56knts/64mph 10m Winds Tropical Storm. (edited)

Really wondering if this gets just sheared?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Oct-20 09:39 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/762488231560216596/image0.jpg

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Oct-20 09:48 PM

That microwave is angry

It wi get sheared but I think GFS is missing the RI over the next 3 days

Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 35.7% 19.9% 12.8% 10.0% 13.2% 37.7% 61.3%

SHIPS is up to 96kts by 84 hours

once we hit the 24 hour mark, it's predicting 2 straight days of 25kts/24hrs

rapid weakening is forecast once it hits peak, likely due to shear and dry air as it gets near the N gulf coast

but i feel like we coudl sneak in a major before it tops off and head out

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Oct-20 10:09 PM

As TTB states the water temps near coastline is down in temp. That CCCF kinda helped out with that.

From: Pat Kepka https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/DL8BFwbb0BE5R-oa6rCxp4I6zokFUdGjaVl4y6gjECQ/https/media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/762490539131928646/image0.jpg (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Oct-20 10:13 PM

An interaction of some sort is probably inevitable now with Gamma’s trend in track

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Oct-20 10:13 PM

Also wondering how this interacts with Possible Delta?

Interestingt o watch the next 24 hrs

Will gamma pull it further West or not much at all?

https://twitter.com/ecreightonwx/status/1312934526881009664

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Oct-20 10:21 PM

so based on normal fujiwhara patterns, i would expect 26 to more more west than expected, and for gamma to push south, once they get vertically aligned, they will detach and both go north

gamma will probably be pretty tilted or have a pretty bare center, so alot of its convectino will be beign fed into 26

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Oct-20 10:23 PM

Galta

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Oct-20 10:38 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1312944106583199750?s=20

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Depression #Twenty-Six Advisory 2: Disturbance Becomes a Tropical Depression. Forecast to Strengthen Over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Oct-20 10:39 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 04-Oct-20 11:19 PM

I am seriously considering chasing/intercepting this. If it shifts a bit east. Hurricane track had a good video discussing why to not write off the possibility it does not weaken prior to landfall.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Oct-20 11:27 PM

It will by enhanced by the jet as it goes

whats the term... baroclinic instability?

could help maintain convection well into water that is cold AF near hte N gulf

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 04-Oct-20 11:37 PM

Also it will be moving relatively quickly, so it will not have too much time to be affected by the cooler water. If there is little wind shear, it could stay strong.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:15 AM

conveciton starting to cover the center. CDO may be forming. thats a huge burst going on right now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:23 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/diagplot/2020al26_diagplot_202010050000.png

borderline cat 4 for HWRF and HMON. lock it in boys

there is a strong SW to NE gradient for OHC cuz of previous storms. 100 OHC ont he SW side of the path, <25 OHC on the NE side

sst's dont drop below 28 until the north turn, then it races north over 26C which isn't horrible if its going fast

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 12:35 AM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) I hope I can if it ramps up. Got to find someone to watch my kids. This is going to be short notice. Hey Joey you come here watch my kids and I'll go, deal?... lol (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:36 AM

this def. has some flashbacks to Opal in my head

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 12:37 AM

Lots of similarities, but the MPI in the north gulf simply isn't there

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:38 AM

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/michael/ohc_aQG3_2018_283_1200.michael.gif

doesn't take much. michael wasn't above 70/80 in the north gulf. clearly we'll be below that

but if delta make cat 4 in the mid-gulf, its only got 24 hours to weaken as it moves north

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 12:40 AM

Much higher SSTs for Michael, believe MPI was about 150kt?

Here we will undoubtedly see some weakening as 26L pulls north, maybe cat 1-2

We're talking SSTs under 25C on the shelf, which normally would hardly support a TS, but with the forward speed and some baroclinicity it should fare a little better

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:44 AM

not sure what MPI on michael was, i dont have an archive at hand

atm, 150k extends up to the mid-gulf, then drops to 100 near the shelf

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:00 AM

rammb doesn't have MPi data archived, lame. but their OHC had michael over <50 OHC, but its not very detailed data

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:32 AM

satcon says we have a 996mb 40kt storm already

ADT is not as impressed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 03:47 AM

We will know for sure once HH goes in.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Oct-20 03:49 AM

Looking more and more like a tropical storm

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 03:49 AM

Probably is a 35-40 knot TS currently. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Oct-20 03:55 AM

Considering it's smaller stature (main CDO pattern), increasing structured banding features, and increasingly open outflow channel(s), I wouldn't doubt 40-45kts (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 05:03 AM

Still a TD as of 5 AM??

The NHC is not screwing around with their newest discussion.

They are going with 105 mph in 72 hours

And they mention "robust intensification" over the next day.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 05-Oct-20 07:32 AM

Doom

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 07:38 AM

Did that storm just

me?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 05-Oct-20 07:44 AM

It just

'd all of us

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 08:15 AM

Aight, now lets see what it will do with two days of bathwater and low shear and Gamma's moisture.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:52 AM

A lot of last night's global models had a hard fujiwhara with merger. Helped keep the storm offshore longer to weaken

But there were plenty of 960-970 landfals too

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 09:09 AM

notice there is now a curved line of clouds from gamma to delta. a surface trough / convergence zone will form between them in a line. this is the start of fujiwhara. how long it lasts and how close they get is quite hard to predict

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 09:17 AM

It's very possible it could help Delta stay in the bathwater more/miss Cuba as well. Also if it starts now it could plow Gamma into the Yucatan and kill it faster leaving Delta with less compeitition

Depending on how it goes the Fujiwhara could help it

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 09:18 AM

looks like we've got rotating hot towers around the center now...eta 24 hours until it's a cane?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 09:38 AM

RIPA has MPI of 130kts up until the turn at 72 hours at least. storms of course normally dont hit MPI but dont count out an over-performer

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 09:47 AM

Impressive, this thing is probably going to really start ramping up soon

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 09:50 AM

Notice the large area of storms stretched along the old wave axis. There is just tons of pwet with this storm. And tons left over from gamma. Shear is under 10 kts for 24-48. Once the high aloft realigns this storm will be under literally perfect conditions.

Crazy hot tower just N of the center. Last gasp of Nmax before Dmin creeps in? Or is this the start of RI?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 09:56 AM

It already is sporting an eye-like feature. Not a true eye yet but might be the start of one later on

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 10:12 AM

ay yes, the old false-eye between the towers....or is it?

there was a VERY clear IR response in that false eye for warming when that tower shot up

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 10:16 AM

Possibly, but it would be weird for a true eye to appear only like 12 hours after development. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:17 AM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) I hope I can if it ramps up. Got to find someone to watch my kids. This is going to be short notice. Hey Joey you come here watch my kids and I'll go, deal?... lol

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) I want to chase it too Glen, thats the problem. I have one commitment on Friday, but I think I can swing it. The only problem is convincing my chasing partner @Jonathan DeGraw (IN) that it is a good idea.

Couple of questions: MPI? pwet?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 10:21 AM

At landfall MPI is around cat 1, but with fast motion could be around c2

MPI = max potential intensity

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:21 AM

ah

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 10:22 AM

Out in the Caribbean and SE Gulf, MPI is cat 5, though who knows if it has time to get up there

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 10:25 AM

NHC seems to be expecting a Cat 2 landfall.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:26 AM

Mark Suddeths words: " While the official forecast does not yet call for Delta to become a major hurricane (category three or higher), I fully expect that we will see this happen and it would not shock me in the least to see it become at least as strong as Laura back in August." Damn!!!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 10:27 AM

PWET = precipitable water

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 10:28 AM

That HT is sustaining, it threw up another overshooting top

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 10:28 AM

PWET is pretty new to the hurricane world, but its becoming very important. i expect to see more places using it

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

PWET >2.0 is basically required for intensification, and PWET of 3.0 is often a sign of imminent RI

12z ships: Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 60.0% 41.7% 21.1% 17.7% 37.7% 43.2% 61.9% Logistic: 14.5% 56.1% 37.9% 10.3% 7.2% 30.8% 51.9% 67.2% Bayesian: 3.5% 50.5% 19.8% 3.8% 1.6% 23.9% 52.4% 42.6% Consensus: 12.1% 55.5% 33.2% 11.7% 8.8% 30.8% 49.2% 57.2%

FYI, that is the highest concensus for 65/72 ive seen, well, ever

MPI will clearly limit this storm, so it won't be some dorian, but the odds of it being a major hurricane are very very high at this point

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:38 AM

what goes in to determining MPI?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 10:42 AM

It's based on sea surface temps and oceanic heat content

A weakening storm moving into lower MPI can technically exceed it

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:42 AM

over the course of its projected path I assume?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 10:43 AM

These charts are a little unreliable near the shallow shelf but you get the idea

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:44 AM

Looking at the NHC track, they seem to want it to slow down just before it makes its northern turn. But that will still be over warm water. Then it accelerates again as it goes north. Its time over the cool water will be short.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 10:50 AM

this may be one of the few times that a fast-moving storm is bad for the coast

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 10:52 AM

ADT hates this storm, it has it weak and puts the center north of where it actually is.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:52 AM

ADT?

NVM Advanced Dovorak right?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 10:56 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:04 AM

HT still sustaining

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:05 AM

Adt doesn't like storms with broken convection. Its prefers blobs

Satcon is the better algorithm for this type of storm

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:06 AM

It appears to be currently mixing out some dry air that has been entrained for the past few hours, could see some serious RI once it's done with that.

It has rapidly organized regardless of it though.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:07 AM

There was a trough to the north west last few days. Some higher level dry air up there. But surface air is WAP

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:07 AM

WAP?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:07 AM

Wet a$& p$$ (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:09 AM

ML is more important though for water vapor, right?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:10 AM

Mid level is the standard for dry air yes. But low level moisture will work upward over time, not just advect

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 05-Oct-20 11:11 AM

No.....please no WAP reference. Literally the worst song of all time, fuck Cardi B

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:12 AM

The false-eye is still present on sat, has lasted pretty long, longer than false eyes on low-mid TSs usually last.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:29 AM

center appears to be under the main tower now. i expect a CDO to form soon

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:29 AM

Latest advisory 1002/45 mph, but that could be underestimating it. NHC is calling for RI and expect it to reach hurricane status sooner, cone shifted a tad west due to center reformation.

Should be noted the center reformation threw a lot of the intensity models this cycle off, since many came in weaker while SHIPS and the environment still support high RI.

A lot of the intensity aids are assuming the storm isn't stacked still when it is

Which is what it is throwing them off

We should have a much better idea when HH enters the storm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:35 AM

its a T 3.5 to 4.0 at this time. so winds could be anywhere from 45mph to 65mph, i'm guessing lower since it will take a 6-12 hours for them to ramp up under new convection

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 11:35 AM

That warm spot was just a gap between bands, but this dimple looks seriously like an eye now.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:37 AM

Ah, there's the real eye

Serious HT with lightning right next to it too

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:43 AM

from CIMSS: Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 890.0 hPa MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 115.0 hPa

again, that's the top end. doubt it will happen, but this area is bathwater

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:43 AM

890? Probably not, sub 940? Definitely possible.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:44 AM

ain't nobody got time to get down to 890mb

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:52 AM

this being said. i present a reminder from the past

an old forecast that sounds very similar

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:55 AM

That was Wilma, right?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 11:57 AM

it was yes. and this storm will cross wilma's path tonight 13 days before on the calendar

notice the 90kt wind speed error at 48 hours

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:59 AM

What does 90kt error mean?

Is it a margin of error or a literal error?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:01 PM

the forecast was for 70kts overnight on the 19th. it was 160 IRL

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:09 PM

looks like a gravity wave just blew through the western quadrant. clouds picking up

CI numbers spiking now. it's happening*

AMSU down to 992mb / 51kts. it could be taking off

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 12:21 PM

Not comparing peak strength but this is nearly identical to wilma's developing stage, tiny core with thick bands to the S and E, south of Jamaica

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 12:22 PM

ADT still lagging but is putting the center in the proper place now.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 12:22 PM

I'd be wary in Cozumel and the Caymans for sure

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:25 PM

So where are yall saying the center is on those radar loops?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:27 PM

the center is due SW of kingston

just E of the giant blob

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:28 PM

The northern blob with the purple hot tower?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:28 PM

bingo

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:28 PM

well, time to buckle up and watch the bomb explode today

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 12:28 PM

Pretty easy to see on visible as a warm dimple on the eastern edge of the CDO

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:28 PM

i'm def having wilma flashbacks right now, as well.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:28 PM

But without the big hook to the east

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 05-Oct-20 12:29 PM

Anyone know when there's suppose to be a recon mission in Delta?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:29 PM

Delta is not going to have the ACE wilma had

right?

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 05-Oct-20 12:29 PM

Will Delta fly into Delta?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:30 PM

How much delta Knot will the storm have during its RI phase? Will it hit the MS delta? it may be hard to delta

Anyone know when there's suppose to be a recon mission in Delta?

@Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) This afternoon per NHC

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 12:36 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:36 PM

CDO with no lightning. coverage filling in. classic RI appearance

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 12:37 PM

Thought lightning was indicative of RI?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 12:37 PM

Usually in systems of this intensity it's indicative of dry air

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:37 PM

Man if that eye can close off in the next couple hours, this thing will literally explode

Also, this channel needs to be renamed, although at this rate we may just wait till it becomes a 'Cane

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:45 PM

yup. lightning is usually in 1 of 2 stages of a hurricane - early on when it's fightning dry air, or very late in the RI period, when it's cat4+ and hail begins to form in the eyewall

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:50 PM

Is that why hurricanes rarely get hail? No dry air?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:51 PM

tropical storms don't use normal convection processes like temperate thunderstorms

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:52 PM

Please enlighten me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:52 PM

there is no ice in the low levesl, it's all super cooled water

bergeron process

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 12:53 PM

I have a strong academic background in fluid mechanics. Let me see

"begins reading wikipedia article"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:54 PM

wikipedia is a great source for intro to many concepts

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 12:55 PM

The outer parts of a TC behave more like "normal" (low topped) convection/thunderstorms, but the further into the core you go you get more of a "warm" convection where the only way is up (rather than updraft/downdraft pairs like in normal convection) and it is warm on nearly all levels.

TC core convection blows it's outflow into the upper levels rather than using the typical updraft/downdraft method a (lets say) typical plains supercell does.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 12:56 PM

https://weather.cod.edu/sirvatka/bergeron.html

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:00 PM

If a TC core is starting to behave more like a plains thunderstorm complex that usually means it is struggling.

Usually with dry air and shear.

This usually causes the cells to switch to the traditional "updraft/downdraft pair" setup, which dumps the outflow right into the core preventing it from strengthening

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:01 PM

So then where does the rain in the core come from?

For the typical TC core

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:02 PM

It just falls

Much like it would in an HP updraft

The downdrafts of a healthy TC are in two places: The eye and outside the storm.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:03 PM

I thought the eye was rising air?

(I am a total noob at this stuff btw, thanks for the help) (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:04 PM

The eye contains a sinking air column, outflow air blown into the upper levels mostly spreads out and sinks outside of the storm though. The area just outside the storm and eye are calm and clear because of this. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:06 PM

So if the eye is sinking air wouldn' that cause an increase in pressure? Also, is the low eye pressure related to the Bernoulli effect from the eye wall windspeed?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:07 PM

The sinking air column in the eye is a mere drop in the bucket when it comes to the insane updrafts of the core

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:07 PM

Are there any good youtube videos explaining these mechanics? Or good articles?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:07 PM

Net pressure trend is still low

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:08 PM

So does the eye have rising and sinking air, or is the rising air located in the eyewall Thunderstorms?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:08 PM

The eye has some sinking air, the eyewall has much more powerful updrafts though.

The eyewall updrafts are the drivers of the entire cyclone.

Also, with the exception of the eyewall a TC is generally a low-CAPE environment, so even in the outer bands where cells behave more traditionally and thunderstormy they tend to be low-topped and updrafts not very powerful. (edited)

The powerful shit is in the eyewall when it comes to updrafts

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:10 PM

The storm essentially creates its own CAPE near the core right? Through whipping up the waves and spiking the moisture

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:13 PM

Pretty much, yes. The inner bands and eyewall tend to be self-sustaining in a way that the traditional notions of enviromental CAPE can be thrown out.

As soon as the eyewall is disrupted the entire storm weakens because the vast majority of convective energy is concentrated there, and in a mature hurricane is nearly the sole driver of the storm.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:18 PM

you have to think of a plains supercell as a fire that consumes fuel (cape). where as a tropical system is more like an engine that consumes heat and moisture, only to feed back into itself like a super-charger

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:18 PM

So circling back a bit, the lack of hail is in part attriubuted to the powerful updrafts chucking the moist air far away from the center at high altitude?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:18 PM

hail requires 2 things in order to form - a downdraft, and ice particles

neither are present in a mature storm

small hail does tend to form in a high end hurricane because the updrafts become cold enough to form ice (below -40C)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:20 PM

Well, it needs a very strong updraft too, to keep the ice particles in the upper part of the troposphere where its freezing. But in a tropical storm, is it just too warm at all levels, until the wind becomes too strong and it blows all the water vapor out and away from the center?

Thanks btw, I am learning a ton

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:21 PM

-39 C is too warm for ice in supercooled air

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:22 PM

The closest land analogue to a TC would be a derecho, but even then it is an apples to oranges comparison because a derecho's self sustaining feedback loop is by sustaining itself with it's own downdraft + forward speed.

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:22 PM

Is that higher temperature due to the ambient condition (the tropics are warm) or is it due to the larger amount of latent heat (Due to the huge amount of energy involved in a TC)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:23 PM

its because the physical process for precip in the tropics doesnt' involve accretion onto a piece of dust like in temperate storms. it involves super-cooled particles pumping into eachother until they get to big to updraft and then they fall, and the falling rain won't freeze because of adiabatic processes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:26 PM

Tropical oceans anyways, tropical land thunderstorms are a typical super high-CAPE but really low-shear environment.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:27 PM

yup, has to do with the lapse rate beign muuch higher in tropical areas. parcels just 'go up' until they hit the tropopause

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:28 PM

Though land thunderstorms in the tropics still have downdrafts. The oceanic based ones are the ones that behave more like that.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:30 PM

So is that why hurricanes (to me anyways) never seem to be as impressive on radar, than say a plains thunderstorm. They just have far fewer ice particles of any reasonable size. Its all smaller supercooled water droplets. But even though its only yellows and orange, its still torrential rain.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:30 PM

Should be noted that the tropics don't receive much in the way of severe weather like tornadoes and damaging winds (outside of TCs) like the mid-latitudes do, mostly due to the fact most severe events need shear to organize.

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) Less hail plus most of the convec is low-topped outside of the core (edited)

Plains cores tend to be filled with hail, even if it doesn't reach the ground.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:31 PM

I was going to say, I thought u just explained that the core storms rise till they hit the tropopause. Thanks for clarifying

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:34 PM

Also should be noted severe convection typically results from clashing of air masses, doesn't happen much in the tropics, however the uniform airmass is what allows TCs to form.

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:34 PM

let me see if i can find a good cross-section of cloud heights

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:34 PM

So is there a better product to use on the radar to tell how much rain is happening than reflectivity? Or do I just need to adjust what I think of for heavy rain.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:34 PM

https://www.whoi.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/coi_hurricanes_primer_en1_213033.jpeg

the overshooting tops cause the impressive high clouds, but underneath the storms are actually quite short in the bands

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:35 PM

Yea, this makes sense to me for sure.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:35 PM

those low, short clouds are very similar to low-topped mini-supercells in the midwest, and that's why they often form tornadoes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:36 PM

Cause their downdrafts interact with the ground and create shear

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:36 PM

Depends, they can be low-topped squall line equivlents too

Depending on shear enviroment

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:36 PM

there is a tiny zone between the updraft and the eye, in the eyewall, where meso-vorticies happen. they are like mini-HP supercells in the eyewall. that's where the really intense winds come from

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:36 PM

I'd say treat the outer bands on radar like a low-topped heavy cell, assume the rainrate is much higher than you'd assume on the plains.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:37 PM

rain rates in plains storms often beat tropical, no problem, its about consistency

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:38 PM

So do the meso vorts form from the vertical shear of the rising updrafts and the sinking eye downdraft. Plus the rapid circular motion of the eyewall storms

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:38 PM

you can get rain rates of 1" per minute in a supercell, but it wont' sustain for an hour. where as a tropical system can do 3" per hour for 24 hours

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:38 PM

Mesovorticies usually are not considered for sustained windspeeds in the updates, though, mesovorticy winds are usually chalked up as "gusts"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:38 PM

there has been some pretty interesting obs coming out of laura's landfall, and that the meso-vorts might actually be a much bigger part of the eyewall than previously thought

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:39 PM

Most of the eyewall winds are driven by the updraft convection alone, the mesovorts result in the peak gusts though.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:40 PM

previously we had thought that yes, but it's looking like meso-vorts are more ever-present in high end storms than expected. they aren't transient 1 or 2 at at time, but rather a continuous process

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:41 PM

The issue with that theory is that eyewall winds are sustained, not gusty.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:42 PM

but what if they are sustained through a series of overlapping gusts? a signal through a noise?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:43 PM

the storms r really wipping around, so it wouldnt take too many meso vorts to make it seem like sustained

Were we able to get lots of good data from Laura? Is it going to maybe become the el Reno of hurricane research?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:45 PM

there was a decent amount, i expect alot of papers about it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:46 PM

Most of the winds though are updraft and pressure-driven. Mesovorts really count for absolute peak/highest gusts. Pressure gradient is also very tightly packed in the core, so it's like a pressure/inflow hybrid wind.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 01:48 PM

Up to 60 mph/998 mb.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:49 PM

Where do you see that?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:49 PM

the question is, does a strong hurricane create strong meso-vorts, or do strong-meso vorts make the strong hurricane? a chicken/egg argument clearly. we previously had stuck to the prior but perhaps we need to look at the later?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:49 PM

Honestly?

In my opinion, it's both

Simultaneously

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:50 PM

i agree, but that means our concept of estimating hurricanes only with sustained 1 minutes / 10 minute winds are then outdated

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:51 PM

The strong updrafts and tight pressure create the winds and the environment for mesovorts, mesovorts create more winds and if they stack it could become a tight inner band of winds helping lower pressure more.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:51 PM

2pm public is out, there's your 60mph

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:52 PM

If 1 min/10 min sustained is outdated for windspeeds, then what do we use?

Frequent Gusts like we use for ETCs and severe thunderstorms? (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:53 PM

So, does the low pressure in a hurricane come from the Bernoulli effect from the eyewall winds?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:53 PM

Updraft + winds

Updraft + winds = lower pressure = stronger updraft + winds.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:53 PM

yup

So, would the highest pressure be located in the eyewall and not the eye? Due to the sinking air in the eye itself?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:55 PM

i like the frequent gust suggestion, but i'm a fan of integrated kinetic energy

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 01:55 PM

I mean for windspeed forecast

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:55 PM

the sinking air isnt' enough to re-pressureize the eye or the eyewall. its very slow

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 01:55 PM

There's a video of them flying into Hurricane Isaias that shows off structure really well

Lemme see if I can find it

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 01:57 PM

the majority of conservation of pressure going on in the storm is made by the outward/upward winds within the eyewall and then into the CDO

we're ahead of the RI forecast, guys. not a great sign

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 01:59 PM

This is almost like new ground right, having conditions that are this prime for this length of time

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:00 PM

not really, this is pretty much 2017/2018/2005 all over again

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:01 PM

I mean as far as models having a small sample size to validate accuracy under this type of RI conditions

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:02 PM

My main problem with the 1 minute sustained wind thing is that the rest of NWS/NOAA uses 2 minute sustained for anything else. 50 mph in a TC are measured in shorter duration than 50 mph from an extratropical cyclone event, so it's not going to be consistent to everyone.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:02 PM

Eye trying to show up a bit on the visible

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:02 PM

well, if we consider 100 to be a standard sample size, yes, we are low on the number of 'confirms' for samples, but if we count all the waves that failed to grow under these conditions? hard to say

we've got maybe, what, 20 major hurricanes in the month of october in the carib. to compare to?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:03 PM

New towers going up on the N NNE side of the low

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:03 PM

but we probably have seen 400+ waves in the satelite era to analyze

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:04 PM

Convec subsiding a little bit, still robust, I'd watch for another flare though.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:04 PM

The flare is ongoing

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:04 PM

its Dmin. expect a pause. wait for Nmax. gonna be nuts

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:05 PM

Just over the past 10 minutes, new towers have fired

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 02:05 PM

It's clearly still firing eyewall convection

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:05 PM

It is, but not as intensely as earlier

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:06 PM

right now shear is from the east, yes the east. wait until we seee up-shear towers. then it's go-time

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:06 PM

So more on the east side?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:06 PM

the big towers right now are all on the down-shear side

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:06 PM

It's definitely strengthening, but it is showing the effects of DMIN

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:06 PM

upshear towers are a dead-giveaway for RI.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 02:07 PM

I've noticed CDO convection weakens a little as an eye clears. Doesn't indicate a pause in strengthening

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:07 PM

upshear would be on the east side? (edited)

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:07 PM

lunch time. lets see waht the models do now

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:07 PM

Anyways, I never understood why we use 1 minute sustained for TC windspeeds but 2 minute for non TC windspeeds.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 02:09 PM

1-min has been standardized for estimations and reduction

Just easier to estimate

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 05-Oct-20 02:10 PM

Looks like both the HWRF and the HMON did not initialize very well

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:10 PM

Looks like some eastern eye storms firing to me

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:11 PM

@Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) Intensity models were thrown off by the center relocation, 06z runs lowballed it as a result.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:16 PM

What if I told you we are now ahead of the ships forecast for RI.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:17 PM

Really?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:17 PM

Once the RIPA updates I'll post it. Were ahead of schedule

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:19 PM

That popped up quick

That new HT is going crazy

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:25 PM

I told you. Its getting towards the upshear side too

Mark Suddeth saying " At least Cat 4..." in the Caribbean.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:26 PM

I don't know much about Mark, how reliable is he?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:27 PM

Mark knows hurricanes pretty well

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:29 PM

Delta has a mean visible presentation

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:30 PM

sorry wrong link: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/TD_24_16_oct_2005_1605Z.jpg

^that's wilma over the same spot, btw

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:30 PM

Delta actually looks better than that right now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:31 PM

there is a little bit of dry air ahead on the NW side, like levi said, and a little more shear than ideal in 24 hours, but otherwise i dont see any reason why we can't cat 4 this

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:32 PM

Delta wont recurve over water though. So not the ACE machine. Are we saying Delta may reach similar max intensity though?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:32 PM

By 24 hours it will probably be well-structured enough to hold out dry air and have an upper level anticyclone to hold off shear.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:33 PM

wilma by comparison in about 12 hours: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/history/Wilma/TRCwilma291_G12.jpg

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:33 PM

Looks similar to Delta

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 02:34 PM

The dates line up eerily well, same area off by ~2 weeks

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:34 PM

This was Delta 12 hours ago

This loop is terrifying

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL262020#navLink

This shows Delta going from a slightly-swirling cloud mass to a 60+ mph TS

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:44 PM

Royce do you have those SHIPS values?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:47 PM

waiting for ripa and ships 18z runs

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:47 PM

ah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:47 PM

after the 2pm advisory came out they might have started them late

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 02:48 PM

The other big event is the HH plane

I see convective towers firing on the east rn

Just starting to poke through on visible

Right at the end, new towers to the east.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 02:56 PM

this looks like a WPAC typhoon getting ready to drop 60mb in 24 hours

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 02:58 PM

Who's to say it isn't near hurricane already?

4

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Oct-20 03:02 PM

18z SHIPS

Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.9% 95.1% 68.7% 58.2% 56.0% 87.3% 51.4% 62.8% Logistic: 39.1% 77.2% 64.7% 39.0% 30.3% 54.7% 60.1% 60.6% Bayesian: 23.3% 92.2% 70.3% 38.5% 34.2% 70.7% 15.3% 26.6% Consensus: 37.8% 88.2% 67.9% 45.2% 40.2% 70.9% 42.3% 50.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 70.0% 40.0% 45.0% 2.0% 23.0% 42.0% 1.0%

(edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 03:02 PM

NHC pretty conservative on their forecast I see

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:02 PM

That will change very quickly (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 03:02 PM

Yikes, those values are no joke

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Oct-20 03:02 PM

87% for 45/36h (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:04 PM

https://tenor.com/view/twister-nature-philip-seymour-hoffman-gif-7754384

I know its a plains meme, but I think the basic principle also applies to the tropics

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 03:05 PM

The 63% chance for a 65 kt increase in 72 hrs is no slouch either. (edited)

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:06 PM

That would put it at 135 mph (117 kt)

8

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:07 PM

the 95% of 25/24 is insane. ive never seen anything that high on ships

6

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:07 PM

You can see the towers rotating around the western side of the "eye"

Will it beat out Laura as the most intense 'Cane of the 2020 season. That is the question up for debate over the next few days.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 03:09 PM

Laura was near Cat 5, possibly was Cat 5, hard to beat, but who's to say it won't go crazy in the bathwater before heading to the cooler waters in the gulf? (edited)

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:10 PM

ships now has 107-114kts max intensity forecast

SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 22.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:10 PM

So it must not know about the current 60 mph sustained winds

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:11 PM

it had 50kts as the run winds. so its going for +57-64kts on average

22x climatology....is unheard of

4

3

2

lock it in boys

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:12 PM

More like buckle up and enjoy the spectacle of natures fury

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:15 PM

Run at 50 kts. 115 kts over 50%

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:20 PM

almost a coin flip for 70kt/48 hr

7

Now we wait for recon

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:25 PM

I think they will find winds aren't that impressive. It might take longer to spin up than currently we guessed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 03:26 PM

Winds typically are slower to respond in these weaker systems, but I won't doubt 65-70 mph

Here we go

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Oct-20 03:41 PM

985.6 mb extrap

54 knot peak in the NW quad

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 03:42 PM

Something tells me we're witnessing the birth of a beast

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:42 PM

towers going up like hotcakes. in all quads.

its pumping so hard they might enter the storm as a storm, and leave it as a cane

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:45 PM

lol. I've been saying, we need to rename this channel to Hurricane Delta. Its inevitable anyways.

And just to clarify, this is happening around DMIN?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:46 PM

diurnal minimum

vs nocturnal maximum

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:46 PM

"faints"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:47 PM

cloud tops tend to be coldest and most centralized in the early AM hours

and they are the most spread out and warmest by afternoon

this causes the appearance, or often actual difference, that storms are stronger at night than during the day (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:48 PM

"faints again"

JoshuaClark 05-Oct-20 03:48 PM

Damn , Delta is just turnin and burnin. It has really came together bigtime today.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:49 PM

i'm locked in at cat 4. anyone buying cat 5?

4

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Oct-20 03:50 PM

I’ll buy 145kts Royce?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:50 PM

i'll buy you dinner if this hits 145kts

JoshuaClark 05-Oct-20 03:50 PM

I just cannot wait until the tropical cyclone cannibalism that we are going to see. Whose game to watch Delta gobble up Gamma.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:51 PM

What a season. I feel we need a Cat 5 though to truly say 2020 is "comparable to" 2005. Not saying its equal, but at least then it would be on a similar level.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:52 PM

wow look at that SE quad flight winds. that' isn't even the impressive side

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 03:54 PM

where do you go to see the racon data?

JoshuaClark 05-Oct-20 03:55 PM

Check out the SE quad!

Jonathan DeGraw (IN) 05-Oct-20 03:55 PM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Aircraft Reconnaissance - Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 03:57 PM

Tiny eye

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:57 PM

ring of fire towers forming around the center now

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 03:57 PM

What will the NE quad pass reveal?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 03:57 PM

tiny eye = good for RI

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 03:59 PM

Convectively it looks like we really are seeing the diurnal effects now. Small systems like this seem especially prone to diurnal pulsing

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 04:01 PM

we'll have to wait for tonight before teh monster CDO forms and the eye pokes out finally

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 04:01 PM

I would bet we start getting hints at a clear eye as the sun rises

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 04:02 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 04:07 PM

The circle at the end of the IR loop is just a collapsing thunderstorm right? Its not an eye? right?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 04:09 PM

correct

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 04:10 PM

Its close to where the "eye" would be. There are more towers going up in a perfect arc along the NE side. Those Recons boys and gals are in for a fun time there.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 04:25 PM

Man I'm tired. What happened?! 181 messages.. gee wizzy.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 04:29 PM

983 extrap

This goin fast so far

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 04:29 PM

Sorry glen, My curiosity and bottomless well of questions caused about half of those...

The other half are just gawking at the ridiculous RI probabilities

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 05-Oct-20 04:31 PM

getting to watch something similar to what happened to Wilma in real time is very exciting

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 04:33 PM

New hot tower

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 04:33 PM

Well time to go biking for 2 hours. I am expecting Delta to be a hurricane by that point. I will be sorely disappointed if it isn't...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 04:34 PM

They will probably find hurricane-force winds in that area where the HTs keep spawning

If not this pass then within the next couple

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 04:34 PM

18 nm eye, about 20 miles

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 04:35 PM

Open WNW with 55 knot winds in that area.

Oh boy...

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 04:35 PM

whats that mean?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 04:36 PM

Strong winds in the part of the eyewall without convection is indicative of a strengthening system

1

The eye isn't closed yet and we are already seeing 65 mph winds on the "weaker" side

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 05-Oct-20 04:40 PM

I'm done with this season. I'm supposed to be getting married on the MS Gulf Coast on Sunday. We already had to push our big wedding back to May cause of COVID.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 05-Oct-20 04:41 PM

Wow, that's rough, 2020 just does a number on everyone

beard (fort worth) 05-Oct-20 04:41 PM

I heard vegas is hurricane free this weekend

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 05-Oct-20 04:44 PM

yeah nah, I'm not missing this one.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 04:50 PM

well, a stronger storm will likely error to the west into laura-area. so hopefully you'll dodge this one but far too early to say. track error is still ~150 miles right now (edited)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 05-Oct-20 04:55 PM

Borderline hurricane strength

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 04:56 PM

yeah nah, I'm not missing this one.

@Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) yikes man, that’s rough. Hopefully Delta goes west or east of G’Port and you get your big day off without a hitch.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 04:56 PM

Advisory out

60kt/983, peak 105kt now

6

Expected to be major right off NE Yucatan

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:00 PM

I heard vegas is hurricane free this weekend

@beard (fort worth) The year is 2030, Vegas is not hurricane free, again, this weekend.

1

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 05:01 PM

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 05-Oct-20 05:01 PM

Well latest track is just to my west, seems pretty locked in so I may not have a choice but to evac

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:05 PM

best case scenario: this thing trucks cancun (like wilma) then weakens drastically as it goes north

worst case scenario: it threads the strait, then as it turns north benefits from the jet and gets baroclinic intensification

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 05:10 PM

October is a month with wild possibilities; it's honestly the month I am more nervous about than any other

Ironically October is the month with the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the North Indian, West Pacific, East Pacific, and Atlantic basins; every NHem basin but the CPac. Also the deadliest month for at least the Atlantic with 1780 and Mitch

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:12 PM

steeper than the RIPA forecasts: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/ripafcst/2020al26_ripafcst_000000000000.gif

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 05-Oct-20 05:19 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:24 PM

me: these RIPA numbers are off the charts! 2020: hold my beer

more towers on the east wall now. she's close

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 05:31 PM

978

This is bombing

Dropped like 5mb from last flight

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Oct-20 05:34 PM

5mb drop in ~1 hour

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:34 PM

i told you they'd enter it a storm, and leave it a cane

you know who else did 5mb/hr? wilma.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/mpswtcke/2020al26_mpswtcke_202010052100.gif

IKE has spoken.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 05:38 PM

Usually it's far out of the question but honestly can't say cat 5 is entirely impossible if it keeps this rate going all the way across the Caribbean without a hiccup

977 extrap on next pass

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:45 PM

looks like recon 2 is on the way

pressures are very low compared to obs winds. that's more like a WPAC storm than an ATL. this could get interesting (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 05:54 PM

Is that a real eye or a fake eye?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Oct-20 06:00 PM

Large CB in the eastern periphery of Delta's eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 06:01 PM

Mimic says it's real

beard (fort worth) 05-Oct-20 06:01 PM

I'm wondering which voodoo chick put a curse on LA.

7

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Oct-20 06:01 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/762411014142296104/762795621492195338/unknown.png

eyewall appears to be closed

5

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 06:03 PM

>64 kt

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 06:05 PM

Likely hurricane at 8 pm.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 06:10 PM

Tower of doom on the upshear side. RI cycle about to kick it up a notch

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 06:19 PM

Who's ready for Nmax?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Oct-20 07:00 PM

976

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 07:10 PM

Well hell. If this keeps the same general path my vacation will be interrupted by the remnants.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 07:19 PM

The monster CDO is here.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 07:23 PM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 07:24 PM

Here. We. Go.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 07:39 PM

So, cat 2 by morning or 3?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 05-Oct-20 07:42 PM

oh goodness, waking up to that would be nuts

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 07:43 PM

Who's ready for a cat 4 landfall in cancun just like wilma

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 07:44 PM

I am rooting for a 2020 Cat 5. So miss Cancun pls... (edited)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 05-Oct-20 07:48 PM

..

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 07:49 PM

That's a high end cat 4 or low 5 sat sig

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 07:49 PM

is that with a cancun impact?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 07:49 PM

Yes...

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 07:49 PM

I sincerely hope this misses the area heavily impacted by Laura.

4

Officially a hurricane now. 75/980 at 8 pm.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 07:52 PM

good lord, save us

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 07:56 PM

based on the latest HWRF run and the most recent euro, the laura area is probably the most likely landfall

possible major landfall double tap

landfall as high end cat 4 in cancun, then rebound to higher end cat 4 in mid-gulf, landfall at 952mb with a HUGE surge profile

keep in mind, HWRF does not do well with baroclinic intensification, so it could be stronger at landfall than suggested

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 05-Oct-20 08:01 PM

We now have Hurricane Delta.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:02 PM

HMON, which has actually been better than HWRF this year for hurricanes, says 948 at landfall, not weakening, just a beast with a huge wind profile

HMON is notably further east, into the delta, not laura-areas

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 05-Oct-20 08:04 PM

delta into the delta

7

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 08:05 PM

I heard some talk on how Gamma may affect Delta...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:05 PM

it's going to feed it. gamma left over a ton of surface moisture and vorticity

vorticity can advect just like anything else

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 08:05 PM

I would say Delta is a Force to be reckoned with

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 08:09 PM

some talk about a sharp trough in Texas that may turn Delta to the right some before landfall

sorry for the stupid question

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:09 PM

yeah, some

if delta is a cat 4, it will take a lot to slow it down, that's why the turn is now more west than east

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 08:10 PM

either way, it is not good

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 08:23 PM

Have we ever had 2 majors landfall in roughly the same area in one season before?

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 05-Oct-20 08:25 PM

Idk

Not in a while I don't think>

*?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 08:29 PM

Did Delta just donut?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 08:30 PM

@Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) Oh man I'm sorry Justin (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:32 PM

she's gonna poop out an eye soon (edited)

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 05-Oct-20 08:33 PM

do they retire greek names?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 08:34 PM

I don't believe they can

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 08:34 PM

That is about to change

2

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 08:34 PM

Which is pretty bad considering we have a potential cat 3/4 landfall

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 05-Oct-20 08:34 PM

yeah, I mean this storm will probably set the precedent

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 08:35 PM

Loading Rapid refresh Infrared

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 05-Oct-20 08:37 PM

It's a hurricane now (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 08:37 PM

Baroclinic intensification is going to benefit it as well as it moves into the gulf, correct?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 08:40 PM

could someone tell me what exactly that is and how it works?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 08:41 PM

Is that when the bottom drops out?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 05-Oct-20 08:41 PM

rapid deepening?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 08:41 PM

ya it's a atomosphere bomb going off.

Laura did that, Correction SALLY did this.... (edited)

It might be happening? I see something on Sat IFR

What I circled is that it? The start? seems to be spinning out and around on rapid refresh.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 08:46 PM

I don't know the exact definition but I know baroclinic intensification has to do with transitioning to an extratropical cyclone

Michael did it; it's what allowed him to go Cat 5 while remaining over the seasonably cooler temps of the Gulf

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:48 PM

baroclinic intensification is an extra-tropical thing

its when the jet stream lines up just right, so tath when its pulling a storm north, it actually helps with difluence aloft

historic storms that had it : michael and sandy

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Oct-20 08:49 PM

Oh yeah, windfield also becomes larger

The severe destruction left in sandy's wake can probably be attributed to the already enormous windfield being made larger through baroclinic processes (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:52 PM

all sorts of other math involved, conservation of angular momentum, vorticity, ENTROPY?

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 05-Oct-20 08:53 PM

Entropy probably doesn't go into that one lmao.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 08:54 PM

actualy it does! there are some really interesting studies about conservation of entropy and hurricanes!

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 08:55 PM

good ol entropy

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 08:56 PM

Weather itself is a process driven by entropy vs. negentropy

Weather is basically the atmosphere trying to find order through chaos

It is a constantly decaying system that never truly decays due to constant influx of new energy (from sunlight)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 08:59 PM

oh ok

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 09:04 PM

microwave shows a complete and very solid eyewall

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 09:05 PM

the 11 PM discussion from NHC will be very interesting

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 09:06 PM

where do u view microwave again?

1

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-Oct-20 09:19 PM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1313286166486151168

Jesse Ferrell (@WeatherMatrix)

Hurricane #Opal was 25 years ago this week. See these, and other photos in hi-res on my blog: https://t.co/AvPloDmaSB

someone said Opal

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 09:53 PM

70 knot SFMR

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 10:07 PM

noticing another burst of convection just south of Delta...

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Oct-20 10:12 PM

Recon VDM showing an elliptical eye open to the NW

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 10:16 PM

What I am referring to.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:20 PM

Where is the microwave sat data to be found?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 05-Oct-20 10:20 PM

getting lightning around the center of Delta too

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 10:22 PM

70 knots at the surface in the SW quadrant with 83 knots aloft

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:23 PM

where can you find the microwave satilite viewer?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-Oct-20 10:27 PM

where can you find the microwave satilite viewer?

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) bookmark it: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/tc.shtml

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:27 PM

it is done

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Oct-20 10:52 PM

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=26L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

microwave loop

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al262020

RAMMB: TC Real-Time: AL262020 - Hurricane DELTA

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 10:59 PM

At this point we are just waiting for the eye to pop out right?

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 05-Oct-20 11:03 PM

https://twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1313308601419812868?s=09

Peter Mullinax (@wxmvpete)

The latest SHIPS forecast may have to go into the "SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities" hall of fame.

Big boy ships numbers. Better than 50% chance at a strong cat4 almost cat5 in 3 days

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Oct-20 11:06 PM

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 05-Oct-20 11:21 PM

This is gonna be a big ACE maker

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 05-Oct-20 11:24 PM

I hope we don't have to retire Delta... Hoping we see an eastward trend, vs going further to the west before hooking. More time over cooler water would be good to weaken it. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 05-Oct-20 11:36 PM

The farther west it goes it has much warmer water to work with.

Well, wake me up when its Cat 3. Im going to bed.

I should be able to sleep for at least 5 hours right?

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 05-Oct-20 11:41 PM

I'd be good with if it did this .LOL. (it can skip the 'M' thing .. just bring me rain!)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 12:22 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/762891084069732362/image0.png

That VDM note on the bottom

A hurricane relocating its center?

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 12:29 AM

I'm really not liking this at all. Honestly, unless it does something weird, there is no good trend based on current projected path. The Lake Charles area can't take another hit. New Orleans/Biloxi area would be bad. Sally did a number on the panhandle and it's not ready for another major. I doubt it would swing so far east it gets Tampa, but even then, that's not a good thing.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:50 AM

ships max vel is now at 119 kts. so cat 4 expected

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 06-Oct-20 01:45 AM

damn

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 01:48 AM

973 mb extrap

81 knots flight level

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 02:00 AM

8 nm wide eye open to NW per recon (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 04:43 AM

Dropped to 970 while everyone was asleep

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:31 AM

100 mph.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:11 AM

NHC officially calling for a Cat 4 peak and a possible Cat 3 US landfall.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:04 AM

I've never seen so much lightning clustered in a hot tower before.

Also is that a pinhole eye?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 07:20 AM

Nope, just a spot of no convection. It looks to be developing one in the near future however

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 07:36 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/662369814085632020/763000541357670410/image0.gif

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:40 AM

Pinhole!

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 07:58 AM

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 06-Oct-20 08:07 AM

NAM and GFS this morning showing slight west wobble. More Lake Charles than Mobile

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 08:09 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 08:09 AM

2

Holy crap

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 08:33 AM

Baby storm with a pinhole eye. Nothing like waking up to a pink donut

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 08:37 AM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313457105005948928

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

#Delta's eye is tiny, about 6 miles wide according to recon. Visible and microwave imagery don't suggest any wrapping band that could lead to a secondary eyewall yet. This means explosive intensification is likely today, bad news for NE Mexico. Landfall is tonight. Please pre...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 08:47 AM

This was from 75kts. So expect 130kts?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 08:48 AM

Eye

Also another intense lightning HT band

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 08:48 AM

HMON hits cat 5 just before landfall

Storm is still ahead of the RI curve

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 09:06 AM

Yikes

959.4MB looks like

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 06-Oct-20 09:07 AM

holy crap

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 09:09 AM

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 06-Oct-20 09:09 AM

Has its eye fully closed off?

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 09:09 AM

CTC2 and seems like DFCI models signalling C5, though most shoot for ME C3/ C4

north eyewall hasn't closed off completely yet

But when it does...oh boy

eye is 6 nauitcal miles wide though

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:11 AM

Still closed eye

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 09:11 AM

oh, its closed?

Oops, bad on my part

Still catching up from yesterday

whew

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 09:21 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:22 AM

957 EXTRP

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:23 AM

There's a small area on it's NW side that can't quite get fully closed. But it's cloose enough to call it closed.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 09:24 AM

959 mb dropsonde in the NE eyewall

Center drop might be considerably lower

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 06-Oct-20 09:32 AM

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313470272956059648?s=21

Sam Lillo (@splillo)

Dropsonde near the center of Delta splashing at 959mb with 62kt winds. Pressure continuing to rapidly tumble, now into the 950s.

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:33 AM

Buh bye cancun

1

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 09:39 AM

https://twitter.com/CBS12/status/1313437151363837957?s=20

WPEC CBS12 News (@CBS12)

Hurricane Delta could be Katrina all over again in New Orleans. https://t.co/5bbCCWde2o

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:46 AM

They screamed that during laura and sally

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:50 AM

Laura and Sally would have been if they tracked that way

They were still devastating majors

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 09:50 AM

baby buzzsaw /w a nice little eye

thats the smallest pink donut ive ever seen

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:50 AM

Still intensifying too

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:52 AM

Hurricane hunters have been told to fly thru delta instead of gamma this morning.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 09:52 AM

did drop 16 not hit the surface? 113kts at 970?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 09:52 AM

Well 1 mb off the surface

So about 10 meters up (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:53 AM

Well, Gamma is dead (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 09:54 AM

10m wind would verify. 957mb center now

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:55 AM

6 dead in mexico from Gamma. Delta won't leave much behind.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 09:56 AM

It looks like Gamma remnants are producing some flooding in the Yucatan before Delta

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 06-Oct-20 09:57 AM

really not looking good for the Yucatan

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:59 AM

Gamma continues to drown the area. Delta will come in and level it.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:00 AM

the 3 ships models now peak the storm between 121kts and 128kts

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 10:02 AM

https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1313479217712111617

NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (@NOAA_HurrHunter)

OVER THE CARIBBEAN - Flight directors on @NOAA WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunters use the lower fuselage radar to collect data to aid forecasters, conduct research, and help direct the pilots on a safe course. Images from Oct. 6 passes through Hurricane #Delta credit Paul Chang, N...

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 06-Oct-20 10:08 AM

Well we're gonna see a Greek letter get retired

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:09 AM

There is a first for everything

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 10:09 AM

https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1313481072534056966?s=20

Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci)

We're now seeing the emergence of Hurricane #Delta's eye on infrared satellite imagery. That's a bad sign as it runs towards Category 4 or greater strength. Sinking in the eye brings a column of warm air, and a bright point on satellite imagery in "warm core" storms.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 10:11 AM

If they did retire a Greek letter, what would even happen?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:12 AM

Going into the Greek list is a rare enough occurrence that we should just be able to drop one and not worry too much

2

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 10:12 AM

True, true

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/763039504930963496/Ejprj6tWoAMdJd0.png

She's closed, if nobody's posted it here yet

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 10:15 AM

Watch it open up next pass just to spite you

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:17 AM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:17 AM

98kt (~100kt) max SFMR

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:18 AM

The pressure gradient is very steep

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:19 AM

from 95kts: RIPA - 45kt / 36h 82.5% 38.5% 60.5%

140 kts? locked in?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:19 AM

That is Cat 5, right?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:19 AM

It also doesn’t factor in land interaction right?

Should be over the Yucatán by h24

Or very near

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:20 AM

136kts+ is CAT5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:20 AM

gonna be a close call.

if landfall is short, due to the fast movement, then it might peak on the gulf side

will depend on EWRC, time over land, etc

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:21 AM

Delta will probably start to grow out in size over the gulf putting a cap on windspeed intensity

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:22 AM

right now the best tracks have landfall only lasting 2-4 hours max.

and due to gamma, the area is a brown-ocean

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 10:25 AM

Oh my lord the sat presentation

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:26 AM

Starting to fully wrap its most intense convection in association with its eyewall

Continuous lightning activity in the SSE quadrant

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:28 AM

Looks like the eye is about to clear on visible

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:30 AM

Max SFMR of 102kts now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:32 AM

if laura was big chungus. this is baby chungus

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:34 AM

baby chungus showing it's colors in the form of lightning

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:35 AM

That is a lot of lightning

Exclusively in the eyewall too

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:36 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:37 AM

it's gonna be a close one. 24 more hours of total bathwater. she can do it. is it a she? is delta a female?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:37 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:37 AM

yeah i saw that too. never hit surface so they'll discount, but ouch

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:38 AM

Still shows what lurks above

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:38 AM

yup, that SE quad right now is insane. wait till it works around to the NE

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:42 AM

EWRC is going to be saving grace at some point.

If it misses Cancun, could end up with a Camile like storm

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:43 AM

Less saving grace and more of trading one doom for another

Bigger storm = lesser winds but more surge

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:45 AM

But you still have "small" storm= total enhancement of the max wind but a substantial decrease in the probable surge heights

It'll be spinning like a top out of hell

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:46 AM

Is the eastern turn in the day before landfall going to really pile up the surge in the NE quadrant?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:47 AM

Andrew was a small Cat 5, it flattened towns with it's massive winds but didn't have much surge to it

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:47 AM

Delta is likely to be an extreme wind event for Cancun

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:47 AM

Meanwhile Sandy was a huge Cat 1, wind damage was more akin to widespread severe thunderstorm damage but surge was tsunami-like and decimated the coast.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:48 AM

Good lord have mercy, this core is going sicko mode

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:48 AM

Camile was a small hurricane, but it had (unofficial) surge of 28 feet (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 10:49 AM

Might identify as male?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:49 AM

Delta Force is male

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:49 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/763048984611913729/image0.png?width=483&height=676

5

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:49 AM

5 nm wide eye now

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:49 AM

If you ask me the "perfect" hurricane is a medium-sized Cat 3, a terrifying enough balance of winds and surge. AKA a "Katrina"-type landfall.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:50 AM

I would say Hayan is the perfect hurricane, although I guess it was a super typhoon

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:51 AM

IIRC Haiyan didn't produce super high surge due to the geography of the region. Typhoons have always been primarily rain events and wind events at the coast.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:51 AM

No it did. It crushed Tacloban with a tsunami of 24 foot surge

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:52 AM

Surge is a huge problem on the gulf coast due to the shape of the ocean floor.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 10:52 AM

Almost all of Haiyan's deaths were from surge

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:52 AM

Thats why Tacloban was crushed. It was right in a bay, Hayan came in at just the right angle

Same with Camile in to gulfport

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:52 AM

storms /w insane winds tends to have very focused storm surges that can be silly high

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 10:52 AM

Now a cat 3

6

955mb

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:53 AM

Delta Force will be Mexicos Camile

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:53 AM

and local shelfs are super important. shelfs = more surge, depths = less surge

that's why miami didn't get 20 feet of surge from andrew, there is a very deep chasm just off the coast

deep waters just off the coast pushes surge down and to the sides, vs shelfs (or bays) that funnel

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 10:55 AM

INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Who asked for RI, None of us did

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:55 AM

Also land geography, Mountainous areas tend to have less winds (with the exception of the windward faces on the most windward range) and impacts are primarily mudslides and flash floods. Florida is flat as hell so it is less of a flash flood issue as it is a wind issue. Though it still does inland flood. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:55 AM

Forecasted 20kt increase in <12 hours

Yeah, that's totally comforting.....

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:56 AM

once the pinhole eye finally drops out it should hit cat 4 easily

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 10:56 AM

Another reason Camellia was deadly.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:56 AM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1313492482580242439

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

UPDATE: Heading to CANCUN to intercept powerful Hurricane #Delta and record infrasound and microbarometer data with the Subsonic probe developed by @ChasinSpin. Stay tuned for updates @MikeTheiss @RadarOmega_WX

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:57 AM

Didn't Camille's surge go a far ways inland?

Like a really far ways?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 10:57 AM

Yes it did

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:57 AM

Camile was one of the strongest (by wind and peak surge if not area) to impact the US.

28 foot unofficial (cause it destroyed the Richelieu apartments) surge, 200 mph gusts, 170 + peak wind sustained.

Keep in mind there were few to no recon flights, they were all attempting storm fury on dennis out in the gulf. Biggest oops in history there.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 06-Oct-20 10:59 AM

Is there a decent chance that this storm could reach Cat 5 intensity?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:59 AM

Stormfury was a laughable waste of resources and time

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 10:59 AM

Yeah that hard right turn

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 06-Oct-20 11:00 AM

Certainly Cat 5 isnt off the table but seeing anything close to that on lndfall is unlikely

I dont know how much weakening is expected before landfall atm

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 11:01 AM

which landfall?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 11:01 AM

Well a Cat 5 Mexico landfall is possible

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:01 AM

Going to be fast coming ashore and gone for hurricanes?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 06-Oct-20 11:01 AM

I mean US

which landfall?

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) youre not the first to ask me that, I am really bad with this storm

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 11:02 AM

I think you meant to say this storm is really bad. (edited)

period

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:03 AM

Seems that front and jet going to give it a kick to the NE.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:03 AM

Lightning-filled HTs on both sides of the eye

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:04 AM

113kt SFMR

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:04 AM

Anyone see the WV there in the gulf area?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:04 AM

132kt FL

Cat 4?

Actually supports about 120kt

4

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:05 AM

Those eyewall cells are whipping around the eye like crazy, it seems with each update they are halfway rotated around the storm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:05 AM

What’s the quickest time for a special advisory after a full advisory lol

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:06 AM

I remember one coming out within 10-20 minutes for Maria

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 11:06 AM

@Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) that's the quickest one I can remember, too.

1

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 11:06 AM

Yeah that’s a cat 4 wow

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:06 AM

If this thing actually managed to go up an entire category within a single pass that is terrifyingly impressive.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 11:07 AM

Cat 6?

6

8

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 11:08 AM

They'll probably wait for another pass so I wouldn't expect a special for a bit

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 11:10 AM

954.4mb

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 11:11 AM

Is that 140 kt FL winds I see there? Hard to tell. (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 11:14 AM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313496984930709504

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Still higher surface wind estimates reported by the most recent recon pass through #Delta's center are in the vicinity of ~130 mph.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:14 AM

This is total WTF RI

Up an entire category via SFMR in a single pass?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:15 AM

WV

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 11:15 AM

Man, I regret making a bet

If this actually becomes a Cat 5 I'm stuck with a furry PFP for 24 hours

Oh Jesus the regret

1

2

1

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:17 AM

Lots of dry air out there. Once it gets into middle of gulf. It’s going to be squeezed also.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 11:18 AM

Oh God

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... 11:20 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 Location: 18.2°N 82.7°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 954 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

10

3

1

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:22 AM

Is that an official statement?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 06-Oct-20 11:22 AM

Yep

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:22 AM

That took 22 minutes.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:22 AM

....HOW??

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Oct-20 11:23 AM

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:23 AM

It strengthened 15 MPH in 22 minutes.

2

4

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 06-Oct-20 11:23 AM

This is normal

5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:23 AM

How did it go up an entire category in a single pass?

4

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 11:23 AM

https://tenor.com/view/this-is-fine-gif-12307212

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:24 AM

It’s called a pinhole eye @Alex V (Wausau, WI)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:24 AM

Most pinholes don't skip categories in one pass though.

RI, sure, but this is ridiculous

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:24 AM

What more likely happened was undersampling on the previous pass

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Oct-20 11:24 AM

https://tenor.com/view/elmo-fire-flame-gif-4591965

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

This is some unprecedented RI right here, I mean, literally unheard of

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

C4

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

You don't go up an entire category in 22 minutes

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

And perhaps recon had not gone back to sample the Northeast eyewall. One other thing to think about is perhaps the degree of strengthening was lowballed by the forecaster.

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

I don’t think it’s touched Wilma territory yet

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

you're late johnson, we know

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

This is Wilma/Patricia-style RI. (edited)

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

I don't think it actually strengthened that fast, they just didn't have the data they do now.

5

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

That's what I thought.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:25 AM

True, still absurd nonetheless

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 06-Oct-20 11:26 AM

Let's be realistic here... and smart.

5

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:26 AM

The pass lined up with a huge convective burst in the eyewall, probably rotating/mixing winds around.

4

Dropsonde a couple hours ago had a section of cat 4 winds aloft so we're probably just seeing that mix better now

3

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:28 AM

Cat 4

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:28 AM

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1313500498251612161?s=20

Jim Cantore (@JimCantore)

This is Wilma type rapid intensification!! https://t.co/4SO5RZcpji

4

Welp, he said it

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:28 AM

Why am I not surprised^

It was going to be said eventually

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:28 AM

Skipping a whole category in 22 minutes LMAO

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:28 AM

Not exactly- they just found more data supporting a high intensity

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:29 AM

This is Wilma/Patricia style RI though, he's not wrong.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:29 AM

Eye is still contracting

4 nm wide now

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:29 AM

Jesus

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:29 AM

If the eye clears, yeah Yucatan is in for a bad time

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 06-Oct-20 11:30 AM

Yucatan's in for a bad time either way

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:30 AM

Category 5 is not out of the question

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:30 AM

A 4nm wide eye is WTF territory, this is god-tier RI.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:31 AM

Well a worse time at least

Doesn't have a ton of time tho

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:32 AM

At this RI rate that doesn't matter. This will hit C5 by tonight

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:32 AM

We were at 45 mph this time yesterday

That's 85 mph in 24 hours. Safe to say it's EI

7

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 11:32 AM

@Hunter Hollman (York, PA) I was just putting it all together

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:32 AM

This is a micro-monster

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 11:33 AM

You know you're in trouble when it's Cat 4 and eye isn't even visible

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:34 AM

lol, yes. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:34 AM

Oh, I see it. It is just super tiny and you need a larger screen.

This storm is gonna be a subject of papers for years to come.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:35 AM

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1313502097804079104 Here's Hurricane Delta summarized

MJVentrice (@MJVentrice)

Major Hurricane #Delta live view. https://t.co/phYIqdBmeb

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Oct-20 11:39 AM

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313503140868575232

Sam Lillo (@splillo)

Delta just went from 35mph tropical depression to 130mph category 4 hurricane in 30 hours! I can't find any other storm on record in the Atlantic that has achieved this feat. The next largest 30-hour intensification from tropical depression is Celia 1970: 35mph to 115mph....

8

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:41 AM

I mean, Wilma (edited)

how fast did wilma intensify? (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:46 AM

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:50 AM

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1313502552705699842?s=20

Stormchasernick (@stormchasernick)

https://t.co/jprkhQm0o8

7

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 11:51 AM

It is a cat 4 now.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:52 AM

how fast did wilma intensify?

@Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 100mb in 24 hours.

this storm has broken dvorak: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/dgtldvor/2020al26_dgtldvor_202010061500.gif

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 11:58 AM

https://twitter.com/jkpweather/status/1313507749884461057?s=21

JKP Weather (@JkpWeather)

Is now a good time to point out that Delta is entering an area of even higher OHC?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:58 AM

if this hits 165mph i lose my bet, slow down, delta!

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 11:59 AM

Imagine it beats that bet and goes for 150kts+

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:00 PM

i think we're going to hit a wall soon. a storm that small can only pull a certain velocity. think charley.

small storms just generate wind much more efficiently

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-Oct-20 12:01 PM

my only argument is #2020 lol

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:01 PM

but the downside. small storms are less likely to EWRC

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 12:03 PM

Wilma did though

And pretty quickly too

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:03 PM

wilma had a small eye, but overall was a much larger storm

if baby chungus here can fill out a little bit, i'll be more worried

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 12:11 PM

@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ @Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) can the title of the room be changed to "major hurricane delta"?

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 06-Oct-20 12:12 PM

That was pretty fast

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 12:13 PM

GFS trended west on the 12z run, with a deeper storm making landfall near Lafayette/Morgan City, LA.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 12:25 PM

Wilma had a slow start for about a day before it really got going

At which point its RI was bonkers

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:33 PM

keep in mind, wilmas 100mb drop was form 988 to 888, so it was already a hurricane when it began teh drop. when did we hit hurricane for delta?

2020-10-06 00:00 16.6 -79.7 65kts

so, lets see how far down she can get by 00z

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 12:34 PM

yeah but there's no way it's an 175 mph hurricane by tonight, right?

or down into the 800s

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:35 PM

wilma did exactly that. not likely but, its has happened

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 12:35 PM

Recon is about to pass again

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:37 PM

cloud mass is startign to fill in. CDO is getting bigger. not good. she's gonna make a run at cat 5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 12:40 PM

Let er rip boys!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:41 PM

the extreme deep purples on the south eyewall, near -90C. this is some epic RI going on

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 12:42 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1313519442043850753?s=20

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

The RI of #Hurricane #Delta has been stunning to watch this morning. However, worth zooming out & witnessing one of the more unusual vortex interactions playing out today. While PTC #Gamma is much weaker, its similar in size to #Delta. Their combined circulation is large! ht...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 12:44 PM

Could Gamma's leftover circulation cause Delta to miss Cancun? Cat 5 lock if it does. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:45 PM

fujiwahra is a mix of counter-clockwise turn + pull in. so it could actually pull it toward cancun, instead of away

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 12:45 PM

My bet is on the NE tip region.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:45 PM

delta has a much higher total angular momentum, so it will dominate, and only move a little

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 12:46 PM

I think it will make landfall pretty much smack dab in the center of that cone at this current trend.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 12:46 PM

121 knot SFMR

Actually it’s contaminated

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 12:49 PM

the 953mb came in at 45 kt winds. away from the 'calm' eye that was higher pressure

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 12:51 PM

24C in the eye on this pass

Was 19C last pass

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 12:52 PM

1mb?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 12:52 PM

Maybe we'll see the eye soon.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 12:54 PM

It's been on IR for the past few hours but not clearing out on vis

Ring of lightning

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 12:57 PM

CDO canopy has expanded in the last few frames

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 01:00 PM

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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 01:20 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313527528485781505

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Recon data suggests there might be a little pause in #Delta's intensification rate, probably due to a still asymmetric inner core and an eye that remains cloud-filled due to light mid-level shear. This could change later today, but regardless, Delta is already extremely dange...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 01:22 PM

shear is up to about 15 kts. not horrible, not great for the storm. pushing it west around the S side of the high.

the storm has not been large enough to 'build' the high over it's top, like many really monster storms can

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 01:23 PM

Expanding CDO implies that is gonna change.

It is trying to expand in size more.

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 01:23 PM

Glen pin those please.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 01:25 PM

windfield expected to grow by 50% by the mid-gulf, it will be a much larger storm for landfall 2

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/hwrfdiag/2020al26_hwrfdiag_202010061200.png

latest HWRF rebounds to cat 4 just before landfall 2

6

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 06-Oct-20 01:28 PM

Not good

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 01:38 PM

Pinned a message.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 01:44 PM

This is well on its way to be the storm of the season. Step aside Laura

3

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 01:45 PM

Yes there's a touch of shear to its west, that's not its own outflow. CIMSS U Wisc actually shows recent uptrend in that shear, but that's observed not a future forecast. Either way iCyclone is gonna have an epic Cancun party. (edited)

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 01:50 PM

It's going to be a crazy night for him. Hope he gets the eyewall of this one.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 01:50 PM

Hopefully it will be left quadrants. Hopefully it just clips cancun, for cancun's sake. Probably won't make much of a difference in its intensity at US landfall, short of stalling over cancun for half a day.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 01:51 PM

Shear should go down as Gamma dies.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 01:52 PM

140 now

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 01:52 PM

It’s still putting up doughnuts and HTs with lightning so it’s still intensifying.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 01:52 PM

Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

JoshuaClark 06-Oct-20 01:53 PM

My bet is on the NE tip region.

@Alex V (Wausau, WI) Just the Tip! (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 01:53 PM

No why

But why

JoshuaClark 06-Oct-20 01:55 PM

Grand Cayman, 250km radar.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 01:57 PM

Pinhole gonna pinhole.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 01:58 PM

Wow, it's detecting pretty high DBZ values for being so far away from radar

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 06-Oct-20 02:01 PM

https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1313539637923721219

Scot Pilié (@ScotPilie_Wx)

Mandatory Evacuations for Grand Isle, LA Mayor David Camardelle called a mandatory evacuation asking campers, recreation vehicles and boat to evacuate at 11 a.m. on Tuesday due to coastal flooding. #HurricaneDelta @WGNOtv

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 02:02 PM

There’s no radar down in that LA area or good radar. Radar gone.

JoshuaClark 06-Oct-20 02:04 PM

Been watching the satellite all day, for I have Naval assets in the Carib at this time curious flaring or reflaring convection associated with PTC Gamma has got my attention. Is that storm, somehow regenerating due to its proximity to Delta or is it something else?

Or is Delta beginning to ingest its remnant energy?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 02:31 PM

More -90C convection going up in the SE Quad.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 02:37 PM

gamma went post-tropical, so it's now basically a low-level meso-cycloen that is tapping into the huge remant moisture it left behind. like a constant-overland MCS. basically a monsoon

monsoons are often the fuel for the largest typhoons in the pacific

and, for delta's sake, gamma is ingesting a TON of dry air, and keep it out of delta for now. that might change as they get closer, and gamma would contaminate delta's air flow

4

anyone else notice HWRF was all-in for a mid-gulf cat 5 only 18 hours before landfall? and a big one too.

HMON with a high end cat 4 only 9 hours before landfall...

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 02:42 PM

Jeez. Surge all the way to I-10 again with that.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 02:44 PM

dvorak numbers finally spiking. went up a whole category in the last hour. it's growing the CDO. cat 5 looks very real now

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 02:46 PM

~(-90)C band attempting to close up

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 02:48 PM

yup. -90 to -93 clouds just all over now. every tower

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 02:50 PM

" Hail to the King" by Avenged Sevenfold anyone?

Or do we wait until Cat 5? (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 02:50 PM

i was in school for my met degree during wilma. we were all in shock. but we didn't have all the tech we do now. the amazing sats, the microwave, the models

it's far scarier seeing it play out in real time /w all the data infront of us

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 03:01 PM

Someone please explain to me whats happening right now. It looks like some of the core storms are collapsing on IR. Thats not the eye correct? What could this be a sign of?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:03 PM

Perhaps the round of shear is relaxing.

But that CDO is ominous.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 03:06 PM

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 03:08 PM

Lmao that one model making it go 225 mph

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 03:10 PM

Seems legit, lock it in

6

10

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 03:11 PM

Cat 6!!!

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 03:14 PM

Looks like Delta has been going through cycles of big CBs. Is this normal behavior for TCs?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:15 PM

Yes

A TC constantly going through cycles where it throws up big CBs is a healthy/intensifying system

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 03:17 PM

Impressive to see it in something so strong tho perhaps

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:17 PM

Usually by this point there is a clear eye, and convection transitions from bursting to continuously firing and wrapping

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:18 PM

You see the wrapping in the latest frames. The eye is there but it is just tiny AF

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:18 PM

Small eye + very intense convection means that will take longer than normal

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:19 PM

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:19 PM

By wrapping I mean reaching a point where subsidence has all convection firing around the eye instead of over it.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:19 PM

Looks like it is wrapping/wrapped now with a pinhole still

The eye is just so tiny it has a hard time clearing on vis, but it is clearly there on IR

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:20 PM

Also, the pinhole is a little NW of there https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1313556626209566720

Sam Lillo (@splillo)

Many "false eye" tricks on IR today from warm pixels near the center of Delta that are actually the result of extremely strong updrafts punching into the stratosphere.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:20 PM

Nah it's there, you can tell by the circular banding pattern around it

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:21 PM

Same thing happened an hour ago, it was transient

The eye really clearing will take time especially at this size

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:21 PM

Pinholes usually are transient

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 03:21 PM

SO where it shows red there thats not subsidence, but actually extremely strong updrafts? WOW!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 03:21 PM

looks like she finally chilled out a bit.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 03:21 PM

You can tell where the eye is when it goes through a big CB, not so much when it isn't

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:24 PM

https://imgur.com/kSuwjD1

Can see the current warm spot is from an intense updraft in the eastern eyewall ^

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:26 PM

Okay

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:27 PM

I wonder if less convective activity as we near Dmin could actually help the eye to clear out

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:27 PM

I would guess DMIN is why it isn't as crazy right now as it was earlier.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:28 PM

Dmin would be right before sunset in about four hours

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:28 PM

We're close enough

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 03:28 PM

‍♂️

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:28 PM

At this point we start feeling effects of DMIN

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 03:29 PM

Anyone know when next low-level recon is

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 03:30 PM

22Z I believe

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 03:31 PM

Soon I'd guess

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 03:31 PM

Don't quote me on that

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 03:32 PM

Alright. I think that's what i read but the plan for the rest of today isn't up anymore. There's a plane out doing upper level stuff but it isn't going in the storm

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 04:06 PM

We should nuke it.

4

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:08 PM

Might clean out the eye, lol. This is awful ragged for a Cat 4. (edited)

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 04:11 PM

https://tenor.com/view/explosion-explode-clouds-of-smoke-gif-17216934

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:12 PM

Warming cloud tops.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:12 PM

We might see the eye clear out soon now. (edited)

6

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:14 PM

Pretty sure that has been the tag line of this channel for the past 6 hours... (edited)

3

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 04:14 PM

It's about damn time

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:26 PM

It might actually be starting an EWRC, the CDO is expanding and the crazy compact hot towers have laxed a bit, also there is a strengthening inner band that appears to be forming an outer eyewall on MIMIC.

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 06-Oct-20 04:27 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313568104249729027?s=20

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Starting to see a more pronounced wrapping band around ~50% of #Delta's core, perhaps the first signs of a secondary eyewall beginning to form. This could help slow or halt the increase in max winds, though such things are hard to predict confidently. Still though, it's a Cat...

Likes

190

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:27 PM

EWRC is good news for Cancun, bad news for Louisiana

Either way someone is fucked

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:28 PM

Delta still has ~20 hours to rebound and landfall at a similar intensity

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:28 PM

Botched EWRC would be ideal for Cancun. Regarding a real eye, it is like snow in the South. Always the next try, lol!

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:31 PM

Can we even consider it an EWRC, given that the first "eye" was practically a point, not a circle?

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:34 PM

It's just another failure like snow in the South.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 04:36 PM

I think a major landfall is entirely plausible in LA. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it reflected in future NHC updates.

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:37 PM

If it can EWRC successfully, and miss Cancun...

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:38 PM

125kt at 5pm

Forecast peak 135kt, landfall, then back to cat 4 in Gulf

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:40 PM

There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.

So I guess they don't think the MIMIC band is an outer eyewall either?

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 04:42 PM

155 at landfall

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:42 PM

Guess recon tonight will find that out more clearly

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 04:42 PM

"12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH"

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:43 PM

Really interested in seeing what's going on in there

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:43 PM

Well this thing is doing stuff very quickly, maybe it sprung up since then?

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 04:44 PM

145mph, jesus christ

Major landfall is expected from the nhc into LA (edited)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 06-Oct-20 04:45 PM

Houston is right on the edge of that cone of uncertainity...

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 04:45 PM

Has LA ever gotten multiple major landfalls in a single season?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:46 PM

2005 at least

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:46 PM

When do we start looking at the potential deep south tornado threat @Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) ? My chase partner and I likely won't be able to make it for the landfall, but we are always down to chase some tors.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:46 PM

Tho just on both edges

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 04:46 PM

Def 2005. But where did Rita make landfall, Texas or LA?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:46 PM

Texas

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:46 PM

Rita's massive track shift was weird

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 04:47 PM

Well, then idk if it has ever occured before

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 04:47 PM

2005, just barely

Rita appears to have made landfall on the LA/TX border

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 04:47 PM

2005 had Katrina and Rita, but Rita didn't make landfall on LA

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:48 PM

Regarding inland action @Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) probably over the weekend, Friday at the earliest.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 04:48 PM

So just west of state line? Was never clear on that

Makes sense

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:48 PM

Thanks Jeff.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 04:48 PM

Rita made landfall in extreme SW LA @Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 04:48 PM

ok sources say that it was on the extreme SW LA

wikipedia yes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:48 PM

Do you just play it like a normal low, try to go the the eastern side for the tors?

Best shear? Or do you have to go hunting for CAPE?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 06-Oct-20 04:49 PM

I guess if there is one sliver of good news, at least Delta will not stall in the Gulf

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:49 PM

Joey. Depends on if it's hybrid. Still early to discern.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:49 PM

TC environments are low CAPE, you can safely ignore CAPE when tropical tor chasing

It's low topped stuff

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:50 PM

What do you mean by Hybrid? Hybrid as in extratropical/tropical?

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:50 PM

Yes that's right

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 06-Oct-20 04:51 PM

Delta stalling in the gulf would probably mean its eventual weakening, however if it stalls near the golf COAST then that's not good.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 04:51 PM

I have never chased tropical weather before. Sorry for the noob questions

How would the state of the system affect the tor chase? If it was extra would that mean we now have to worry about CAPE more?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:53 PM

The best tor setups for mature northbound hurricanes (not TSs or weak sheared C1s) on the gulf coast would be in the NE sector in the outer bands under the area most affected by the stronger parts of the trough bringing the hurricane inland.

2

You could chase more into the inner bands but that is all HPness in there.

Outermost bands are the most discrete, mid-bands are QLCS-like

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 04:55 PM

I go outer next day. I'm going into Long Range for Dixie Alley.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 04:55 PM

Go for NE outer-mid

If your idea of a TC tor chase is to make it as plains-ish as possible the outer bands would be best since you won't be dealing with the sustained TS windfield (assuming the cane isn't a big chungus), and it is the most discrete. (edited)

That is for landfallers or if it is still fully tropical

If it is weakening and becoming a baroclinic low then you can treat it more like a regular low.

2

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 05:02 PM

I had success chasing the very outermost bands of Cindy in 2017 on the AL coast as it was heading for Louisiana, those outermost bands can be pretty nice

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 05:03 PM

The tor discussion is now in chaser-discussion (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 05:07 PM

48 hours head of highest RI prediction

Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 59.0% 13.8% 36.4% 25kt / 24h 38.8% 24.1% 31.5% 30kt / 24h 32.3% 16.3% 24.3% 35kt / 24h 22.2% 16.3% 19.2%

and 145mph

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:20 PM

Ah shucks, here we go again

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 05:21 PM

I think we should call this storm Delta Knot for how much it likes to ramp up its windspeed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:21 PM

All hot towers no visible eye

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 05:28 PM

I was just looking at that. There's really no obvious center of rotation. Just a giant blob of destruction.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 05:33 PM

There's an eye under all the crap but all the hot towers all day make it impossible to see

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 05:34 PM

Well it's decent sized again at least

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:35 PM

"Looks like Delta may have chilled finally" Delta: WRONG! throws up more huge lightning-filled HTs

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 06-Oct-20 05:38 PM

Love watching Donald and his hurricane briefings. (Lake Charles NWS) https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=366286851218639

1

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 05:40 PM

https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1313583891802918912?s=20

George Delanjian (@weather_chest)

18Z SHIPS feeling good about #Delta reaching Category 5 intensity within 12 hours, and if not within 12 hours, 24 hours.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 05:42 PM

Waiting for the eye is like waiting for your Delta Connection ASA Always Stuck in Atlanta. Smh

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:48 PM

Throwing up intense HTs just when the CDO from earlier is starting to warm! Visible eye?

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 06-Oct-20 05:50 PM

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1313590884483686412

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

Hard to tell 100% for sure based on visible, but it does look like #Delta has completed some sort of ERC, with a slightly larger eye trying to show up on visible imagery. There is also still some asymmetry due to shear, with stronger convection downshear left (south).

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:52 PM

"Completed" That fast?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 05:52 PM

So it completed an EWRC as it deepened? Seems counter-intuitive. @Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) any insight on this?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:53 PM

It did have a pause in deepening earlier, but it seems weird to me it would complete an EWRC this quickly

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 06-Oct-20 05:55 PM

i imagine that since it had a pinhole eye, it wouldn't take that long to complete an EWRC

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:56 PM

Looking at the latest IR frame the super cold cloudtops with the typical sharp edge are pushing northward

Rapidly too (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 05:58 PM

Yeah, pinhole eyes probably don't take all too long to replace

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 05:59 PM

if there was no secondary eye, then there was no EWRC. they never saw one on in-flight radar. whatever the storm did, it's back

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 05:59 PM

There was one on MIMIC

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 06:00 PM

mimic has been wierd today. it looks more like a nautilus than an eye.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 06:01 PM

Why can't Delta just be normal and have a visible eye

that'd be great

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:02 PM

I don't know

But it seems to be entering yet another intensification phase.

HTs, lightning (on both sides), sharp rapidly expanding fresh CDO, etc

Looks like DMIN is doing little if anything to it (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 06:05 PM

There's probably not going to be a visible eye for a while

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 06:05 PM

The dark spot on visible is the shadow of a tower, not an eye. IR and other channels still no eye. However better banding is on visible. Shruggie.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 06:05 PM

It is strengthening at a rate where the hot towers are just gonna keep obscuring it

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 06-Oct-20 06:06 PM

No eye on any satellite channel

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:06 PM

Imagine if this thing hits Cat 5 without popping out an eye on visible. That would be a first.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 06:06 PM

It's certainly a possibility

I see SHIPS agrees with that

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:07 PM

Here is our potential answer, it seems to be exiting an area of greater mid-shear currently

The leveling off stuff earlier may have been due to the shear, it's leaving it now. (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 06:09 PM

Maybe that's why those hot towers are going up

Hasn't had towers that cold in a while

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:10 PM

And all the freaking lightning all of a sudden too. (edited)

And I thought Laura loved lightning.

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 06-Oct-20 06:14 PM

https://youtu.be/00E2Qey4CGQ

Tropical Tidbits

Delta Becomes a Category 4 Hurricane as it Barrels Toward Mexico; M...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Follow my Twitter for more frequent updates: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the offi...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:20 PM

This is the graphic with the supposedly outer eyewall which the NHC disagrees with

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:33 PM

SSHWS way ahead of the IKE scale

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 06:39 PM

We should know the true windspeeds here in about 30 minutes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:42 PM

Recon on it's way?

That HT is so cold that it actually peaked out the IR color range (at least on this site)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 06:51 PM

Honestly the inner core looks way less organized than it was earlier this afternoon, will be surprised if they find 125kt

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 06:51 PM

Yup, recon now SW of Cuba

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 06:51 PM

Gotta get rid of that easterly shear

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:52 PM

The CDO is a mess, it probably is structured much better underneath

All that HT activity is the reason for the weird sat presentation

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 06:53 PM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1313613343555489792

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

LIVE update from center of Cancun with Hurricane #Delta approaching with at least category 4 intensity. Mandatory evacuations along the immediate coastline @RadarOmega_WX https://t.co/y9CmasbNtT

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 06:57 PM

Still has ~12 hours over bathwater

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 06:57 PM

Another insane burst of lightning

Recon in storm now

CDO just got colder over a more widespread area, especially on the north side.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 07:15 PM

Shear is picking up from the east. The storm is out racing the high

Its in the transition zone between the old trough and the huge high

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 07:16 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:23 PM

Just where the hell is the eye under all this?

The entire core is HTs at this point

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 07:33 PM

This is a different type of storm. Some new beast. The Nautilus shape is stable for a period in thermodynamics. It appears that it doesn't need an eye

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:35 PM

Peculiar, Nautilus-type TCs usually don't get this strong

If I had to guess the center is in there somewhere

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 07:38 PM

People will be making their doctoral thesis on this storm for years. 145mph and no eye is just amazing

4

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 06-Oct-20 07:40 PM

lol

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:41 PM

I am used to the nautilus shape on 50-60 mph TSs, or a weak Cat 1 from time to time, this is insanity.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 07:44 PM

We'll see if recon finds an eye

There's a possibility there's one hiding under everything

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:44 PM

Looks like they are having a hard time finding the center (edited)

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 06-Oct-20 07:45 PM

Can't imagine why

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 06-Oct-20 07:46 PM

Winds looking much much weaker

Only 85 kts SMFR

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 07:47 PM

What'd truly be crazy is if we got a C5 with no visible eye

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 07:48 PM

Likely they missed the maximum wind band, or the eyewall is open there.

Under that mess I can see how it would happen

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 07:51 PM

If this is a Nautilus, then the max wind band will not be stationary. It will rotate around the center

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 08:01 PM

Might not be a major at landfall unless it can really recover in a hurry

Wouldn't doubt it ramps back up though

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 08:03 PM

Latest update keeps it at 145 btw

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 08:09 PM

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1313631846824112130?s=20

HRD/AOML/NOAA (@HRD_AOML_NOAA)

The last pass through Hurricane #Delta from this afternoon’s @NOAA_HurrHunter flight. Video shows a small eye and a turbulent ride as the aircraft enters the eyewall. 3 onboard radars are used to to help navigate and measure the storm. Credit: @NOAA_AOML scientist J. Zawislak...

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1313632112873009158?s=20

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

The mid-level shear impacting #Delta right now is actually being picked up nicely in the G-IV synoptic flight from @NOAA_HurrHunter. A dropsonde SE of the TC shows SW winds at low-levels, part of the TC circulation, with mid-level inflow around 300-400 hPa and restricted outf...

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 08:14 PM

Maintaining 145 seems extremely high even for consistency purposes

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 08:14 PM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1313633223747002374?s=20

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

UPDATE from Cancun with preparation for powerful Hurricane #Delta continuing as night falls. Cloud tops are incredibly cold on satellite. Occasional rain bands passing through Cancun but is remarkably quiet. Mexico does a great job prepping for hurricanes @RadarOmega_WX https...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 08:22 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 08:30 PM

Rather small and potenet this one is. Actually I think most of our tropical systems have been like this all year. What do you guys think?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 08:32 PM

Except for Chungus Laura

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 08:33 PM

Wondering if there is some super cycle than encourages larger vs smaller storms. Something global dynamic going on

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 06-Oct-20 08:34 PM

What was the immortal fish storm? Otto?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 06-Oct-20 08:36 PM

Omar

Paulette was much more immortal though

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 08:37 PM

Intense CDO forming on upshear side.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 09:01 PM

Sun is down. Time for Nmax. Y'all done for

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:02 PM

What?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 09:06 PM

The upstream towers man. Insane.

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:06 PM

So latest Euro says houston (we know how that will end) and gfs says lake charles. I think it'll split the difference and nail the state border.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 09:07 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313637745802215424

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] Mid-level shear impacting #Delta diagnosed from the GFS is currently ~30 kt in the 850-400 hPa layer, which is near double what the model predicted yesterday. This is responsible for Delta's currently discombobulated core structure. Last 7 runs valid 8:00pm EDT: ...

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:07 PM

Ofcourse reed went to cancun lol he won't be able to get out for days though

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 09:07 PM

Shear is about 30 knots actually. It was very poorly modeled

Recon completed their passes. Peak SFMR was 94 knot in the SE quad (edited)

With recon, best estimate is probably right around 115mph now.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 09:16 PM

so it did considerably weaken. It may not be as powerful as we think?

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 09:20 PM

It's still strong. It'll gain strength when the sun comes back up.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:28 PM

Look at that fanning action on the CDO, that is a telltale sign it is fighting off the shear and is starting to re-organize. That huge hot tower is the start of a new eyewall. It will probably form a new and larger eye in the near future. If anything it's significant weakening now means it will be big chungus in the gulf

This is going to be a big storm in the gulf.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 09:50 PM

https://youtu.be/sOY5TfmfO5Q

HELLO THERE

BIG CHUNGUS Vs. THANOS | Phase 1: Episode 1

You read the name.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 06-Oct-20 09:58 PM

Yeah outflow def improving

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 09:59 PM

Yeah CDO is rounding up again in the W quad

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:01 PM

nothing is rotating though. It has been that way for a long time now. Nothing seems to be broadly rotating.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:02 PM

Looks like another CCC that Sally had

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 10:04 PM

Recon is making another pass

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:23 PM

966 mb extrap this pass

90 knots SFMR

Weakening continues

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 06-Oct-20 10:30 PM

What in the fuck

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:35 PM

Rip

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 06-Oct-20 10:38 PM

250mph cat 5 confirmed

5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:48 PM

when the IR bugs out and goes to unknown values for C

wind values are down, but this storm is not weakening. adt/satcom values going up

its' moving from nautilus storm into trad. hurricane

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:50 PM

Official update brings it down to 130 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 10:51 PM

the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 10:55 PM

an eye is coming. infact the models say it has an eye right now....crazy computers

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/eyepfcst/2020al26_eyepfcst_202010070000.gif

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 10:57 PM

I don't see an eye?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Oct-20 10:59 PM

700mb RH is being maintained in the mid to higher 20s%

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-Oct-20 11:03 PM

Yikes. Bone dry in that layer.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:04 PM

Recon has reported an eye feature again

20 nm wide eye and open to the north

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:09 PM

Here is some food for thought

On the IKE scale Delta has been a Cat 2 this whole time, is it truly "weakening" or just revealing it's true current intensity?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:12 PM

That's ADT based which never really caught onto the pinhole.

Pinholes allow for both very rapid intensification and weakening. Over today we've seen both.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:12 PM

Recon shows this weakening. 10 mb rise between passes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:13 PM

It would have been Cat 2 all day if it was more traditionally structured

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-Oct-20 11:13 PM

They did botch that 973 mb dropsonde though. Probably closer to 970

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:14 PM

be careful what you wish for. IR/WV differentials are like -4C. off the charts

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:14 PM

What is your take, Royce? On the current situation with Delta, NHC update, recon readings, etc in general.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:15 PM

the storm is transitioning over to a normal storm, once shear lets off

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:15 PM

This convection continues to amaze

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:15 PM

this is the nautlius version of an EWRC, i guess

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:15 PM

I agree Royce, shear appears to be relaxing right now. Convec is firing on the western side again.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:16 PM

the models say it will form an eye by morning. and it's going to be very ugly when it does form. and if it forms before landfall, i expect ot see cat 4 again

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 06-Oct-20 11:18 PM

I believe Sam Lillo said this may be the coldest Atlantic CDO on record (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:18 PM

yeah, the cloud tops are off the charts. literally. colder than 94c. this is WPAC-like

models are now showing the shear. neutral for the next 48 hours. huge difference

neutral vs very favorable is like cat 3/4 vs cat 5+

but this feels alot like when katrina went form cat 5 down to cat 3 and everyoen was like. oh well no biggy only cat 3

this storm WILL BE HUGE when it gets into the GOM. HUGE.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 11:25 PM

If today was the opening act, buckle up. If today was the main show...

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:25 PM

yo I'm bak reading and catching up

Anyone check out the rapid refresh I had up? on WV sat.

Like it's just barely moving. Not goood for making a run at cat5

Also the shape of it is an egg shape.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 11:27 PM

If I don't wake up to an eye of some kind tomorrow...

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:28 PM

This is slowing down isn't it?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:29 PM

not officiially

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:29 PM

Joey I got a message back from my mother in law. She can't watch them on Friday. Like crap!

My chances of going down there are Slim now.

Not unless it slows the hell down and hits Saturday evening or late afternoon.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 06-Oct-20 11:30 PM

Thats the same boat I am in Glen. Rooting for slow.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:32 PM

yeah then i can make a run for it on Friday late afternoon.

Haul butt down there drive overnight take a nap and get hit by a hurricane.

or we just chase Saturday? Hell I might just wait for it to come to my neighbor hood.

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 11:41 PM

I'm not going anywhere near this if land fall stays in LA.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 06-Oct-20 11:44 PM

So you'll drive to MS, AL or Fla?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 06-Oct-20 11:48 PM

beard (fort worth) 06-Oct-20 11:52 PM

Nope lol i'm not going west of the state border. If it shifts towards houston i'll drive down. But i'm not playing in the swamps especially after they've been hit 3 times already this year.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-Oct-20 11:58 PM

AMSU - 948 111kts

the clouds are now catching up to the winds. give it till mornign

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/4kmsrbdc/2020al26_4kmsrbdc_202010070230.jpg

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 12:01 AM

975 mb center drop. It’s still rising

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:01 AM

grey ring of doom

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:02 AM

grey ring of continued pressure rise

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:04 AM

we're shifting from a dynamically driven system to a syntopically driven system

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:05 AM

Yes, pressure will rise a bit before it falls again as the core becomes better-structured.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:08 AM

we're gona go from a mutant baby cat 4, into a big f-ing cat 3/4 in the gulf. with a huge field and huge surge

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:10 AM

The pressure is also suspect

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:13 AM

CI is climbing again. it's getting back to 'normal' for a cat 3/4. give it a few hours

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:18 AM

Some of the weenie servers are calling this recent CDO development an "attempt"

Implying that it "failed"

to develop a core

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:19 AM

weenies, pictured

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:19 AM

Some of the weenie servers are saying its gonna die over the Yucatan now

And that it is "falling apart"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:20 AM

you cannot defeat baby chungus with a mere landfall

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:20 AM

Look at that windfield on the north side now

Really growing

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:20 AM

That's what I tried telling the weenies

They still drone on about it dying

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:21 AM

Weenies are hyperreactionary, and that goes both ways

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:22 AM

A truly dying storm wouldn't keep throwing up intense cold tops

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 12:22 AM

Here’s the center drop from 2 passes ago. Might be tilted some.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:23 AM

Ah yes, the sonde the weenies posted to make it look like pressure rose to 975 not taking into account the windspeed at the surface

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 12:24 AM

Well the last center sonde was 975mb at 11 knots though

It’s definitely around lower 970s currently. (edited)

The one I just posted is a couple hours old

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:24 AM

okay

The weenies claiming that the restructuring we are seeing is just an "attempt" at that the storm is "falling apart" are still full of crap though

And overreactionary

The intense band is starting to curve a bit in the past couple frames

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:26 AM

wait... a storm with -94C towers....is falling apart?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:26 AM

According to weenies in other servers, yes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:27 AM

do they even understand how rare -94C is?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:27 AM

Nope

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:27 AM

this storm is the GOLDEN GOD of hot towers

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 12:27 AM

Yeah, that's not falling apart

I'd like to have a talk with these weenies @Alex V (Wausau, WI)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:27 AM

I have also seen the weenies post a bunch of conspiracy theories as to the NHC keeping it at Cat 4 and chewing them out for it in the weenie servers

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:28 AM

its LITERALLY BREAKING the color-codes on my IR sat

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:28 AM

@Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) Oh I think I know which weenie-infested server I am talking about

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 12:28 AM

82 mph sustained at buoy 42056

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 07-Oct-20 12:28 AM

Weenies are good for the lulz.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 12:28 AM

Gusting to 93 mph

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:29 AM

Cuban radar snapshot, fwiw

Can see the larger core developing

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:30 AM

^

Lemme post this in the weenie server...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:31 AM

that is a much bigger core than before

it's gonna spin down a ton while it expands

the CDO was only 1.5 degrees wide before. now its 3 degrees top to bottom. thats 4x the area covered

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:32 AM

Yep

I have noted the expanding windfield at FL

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:51 AM

Lightning on the upshear side indicating a developing HT there.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:52 AM

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:13 AM

To be fair it definitely isn't still quite as strong as NHC has it indicated as per recon, but may jump back up to it if that big new core sustains. This would be off the charts except for that sudden burst of shear

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:14 AM

Back down to 968

It’s in the reintensification phase. (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 01:15 AM

That was the last pass too

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:15 AM

Hope that NW jog is a trend

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 01:15 AM

When is the next recon?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:16 AM

Might just barely clip Yucatan if it trends north

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 01:16 AM

Here’s the 975 mb center drop from pass before

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:19 AM

Eye would definitely be trying to pop if not for the shear

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:19 AM

You can expect the eye to pop in due time.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 01:23 AM

goodnight. let's try not to wake up to patricia or something

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 07-Oct-20 01:24 AM

Yeah, agreed Royce

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 01:25 AM

That sonde still implies a tilted vortex

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 01:25 AM

Anyone know next recon time?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 01:28 AM

Don’t think we will get one until it re-emerges into the gulf

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:30 AM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:30 AM

In the last hour it's a lot more symmetrical with banding and outflow increasing

Probably still going to be intensifying at landfall imo

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:31 AM

DVORAK is starting to like it better now too

ADT pressure readings is more akin to recon data now

This is now becoming a more traditional cane

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 01:32 AM

Honestly very similar to Sally and its first then second peak

RI and a tiny core, transient peak followed by rapid weakening

Then a slow buildup to a more traditional structure

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:33 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.7 / 969.6mb/ 82.2kt

Recon pressure: 968 Dvorak is now useful

This has been a truly fascinating hurricane to watch these past 24 hours

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 02:17 AM

Layfette was my target area for this Cane. I heard others going to Morgan City.

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 02:46 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.8 / 967.6mb/ 84.8kt

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 05:56 AM

Looks like an eye is just starting to pop

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 07:20 AM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313785297012842497

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

5:15 am. In it. Getting slammed. Stronger than I expected. Near Punta Cancun. Chasing #Hurricane #DELTA in #Mexico https://t.co/nf0oqih5x0

Retweets

239

Likes

739

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 08:10 AM

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 07-Oct-20 08:12 AM

Category 2 Landfall on the Yucatan peninsula (edited)

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 07-Oct-20 08:24 AM

So apparently this is a thing (IK its NAM and its not made for hurricanes)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 08:47 AM

First rule of fight club is you don't talk about NAM, or the time it crushed the forecast for Dorian.

Impressive cloud tops for a storm that is over land. Took a major bite out of yucatan

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:01 AM

How long until it’s back over water?

beard (fort worth) 07-Oct-20 09:09 AM

This afternoon

GFS still thinks Lafayette. Euro thinks state border.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 09:14 AM

ADT is now equal to the warning intensity, dvorak is well above it

that means if it forms an eye, expect it to intensify, possibly quickly

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:15 AM

How much do you wanna bet it forms an eye as soon as it pops over the gulf?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 09:17 AM

HWRF says it will take 3-6 hours then an eye might pop out

then a high end cat 4 /w landfall E of lake charles

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:19 AM

The fact a tropical system is throwing up those cloud tops over land tells me it’s gonna rapidly organize and strengthen when it re-emerges. There has been some evidence it’s actually been building its core structure over the Yucatan.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 09:23 AM

You can actually see part of the eyewall on IR.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 09:28 AM

hurricanes eyes are like bullet wounds. they go out bigger than they come in

2

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 09:31 AM

well... usually. Sometimes you get some frictional convergence that helps tighten the eye over land like with Florence or Michael.

Obviously not the case here though

Great MW pass (edited)

2

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 07-Oct-20 09:45 AM

Wow

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:48 AM

It has been successfully restructuring since a couple hours before landfall and continued to do so over land. And it’s not gonna be long over the Yucatan. Strap in boys, she’s gonna blow (again, but not as dramatically this time).

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 09:50 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 09:51 AM

take a moment and recognize how big the black ring of death, white ring of death, and pink blob are now

the pink blob is now bigger than many entire hurricane CDOS. and the black ring of death is 4degrees by 4 degrees. or about 6.25* larger than yesterday

SST's have rebounded the last 2 days. they are up to 29C over most of the south 2/3 of the gulf. and they are pushing north fast form the induced flow from delta

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 09:55 AM

I sense a Gulf peak stronger than the Caribbean peak

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 09:55 AM

ohc should have no problem sustaining a cat 4 until just before landfall.

145 was pretty strong. i dont think it will top that, might get close. only becuase the storm will be MUCH bigger in size. she might beat pressure, not wind speed

beard (fort worth) 07-Oct-20 10:04 AM

There's an air show in houston this weekend with a bunch of vintage jets. I've been telling people it would get cancelled lol maybe now they'll listen when delta explodes in size.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 07-Oct-20 10:55 AM

Hurricane/TS and Storm Surge watches posted: WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from High Island, Texas, eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Texas coast from west of High Island to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the northern Gulf coast from east of Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, including the city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Opening bid on surge...7-11 feet in Vermillion Bay (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 11:02 AM

New HT over water with lightning

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 07-Oct-20 11:28 AM

NHC take is reasonable to solid. No shear today. Greem bubble on CIMSS U Wisc satellite derived shear. Should follow Delta for 24 hours. Then wind speed dropping after Cat 3, with a bigger storm, won't matter much. Pattern recognition Southern Gulf add 15-20 kts in 12-24 hours before level off and or EWRC. (edited)

5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:14 PM

Doughnut

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 12:16 PM

more eyewall convection smacking the tropopause

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 12:18 PM

pink ring around the center now. is that an eye formign?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 12:21 PM

eye see you!

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 12:22 PM

Uh... well that was immediate

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 12:23 PM

Yeah that says something (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 12:24 PM

There is a lot of energy in that system. Watch it reload quick

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 12:31 PM

Bigger center probably easier to manage now

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 07-Oct-20 12:37 PM

There's an Air Force plane in route right now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 12:40 PM

I think we got a peek at the eye on IR, but now the new CDO is covering it up again.

It does appear the towers are orbiting something now, which is a change from yesterday.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 07-Oct-20 12:53 PM

Wow, Delta wasting no time

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 07-Oct-20 01:13 PM

https://tenor.com/view/ah-shit-here-we-go-again-ah-shit-cj-gta-gta-san-andreas-gif-13933485

^ Lake Charles rn

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:19 PM

Now get tornado watches and warnings at landfall and you got a christmas tree map

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:20 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 01:24 PM

@beard (fort worth) more pretty colors...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:28 PM

I just post the IR every few frames, interpret it as you will

But if you ask me that looks like a solid core right there.

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 01:30 PM

I am just poking fun at you from earlier. I know more than I let on, but not as much as people may think.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:33 PM

I think the most notable features are as follows: -Cold AF CDO, indicative of intense convection so any organization short term will happen quickly. -Upper level outflow cirrus "fanning out" indicating healthy ventilation and the storm forming a protective shield against shear. -Doughnut ring in center indicating a legit eyewall structure. -Banding forming on it's forward side which is a signal of a maturing 'cane. -Lightning in hot towers being a consequence of the really cold intense core convection.

2

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:33 PM

The consistent extremely cold CDO temperature is quite impressive

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 01:34 PM

Is Delta giving 2020 the cold shoulder?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:34 PM

It is impressive, the consistently cold CDO is the main reason why I said it would explode in the gulf.

Not like yesterday's insanity, but more like a traditional RI short term

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 07-Oct-20 01:35 PM

I didnt think bc of the relatively low OHC

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 01:35 PM

Oh dang, just "normal" RI. LAME!!!

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:36 PM

It will RI back to a mid Cat 3 then intensification will slow roll after that before leveling off when it hits the low OHC and shear over the northern gulf.

And then possibly weaken a little before landfall.

Short term lower OHC won't matter as much since it is over the continental shelf, it will become more of an issue over deeper gulf waters.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:36 PM

Might briefly hit low cat 4 and threaten the pressure minimum in the Caribbean before starting to wekaen

Upper 940s not impossible

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:37 PM

Gotta remember it is also going to expand in size, so while it might make a Cat 4 run I won't guarantee it even if it makes a similar pressure run. (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 01:39 PM

Yeah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 01:42 PM

how big is this storm? the PWET swirl now takes up the ENTIRE gulf of mexico

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:42 PM

Basically I think the NHC’s forecast is mostly on point, though I’d bump it up to 125 mph

Has a lot of PWET to work with after eating Gamma.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 01:43 PM

anywhere between 115 and 130mph peak is in play. easy. landfall will be the great question. does it weaken, or does it laura?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:44 PM

The limiting factor is that the northern gulf has been cooled down a lot by polar fronts. (edited)

And it is still rebounding from Laura and Sally. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 01:47 PM

Recon in storm

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 01:50 PM

75 knots sfmr

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 01:51 PM

Didn't look like a clean pass

Yeah it's a trash pass

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 01:52 PM

I think they missed. They are trying to find it.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 07-Oct-20 01:52 PM

Well at least its a low end cat 2 in the advisory

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 01:55 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 01:56 PM

that wind field is big, quite big

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 01:56 PM

NE side is definitely expanded max winds look well displaced from the center unlike the NW quad which are much closer.

Probably have very gradual strengthening until it can get the max winds closer

NW quad looks quite large also purples extend out a good ways there (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 02:06 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 02:08 PM

Big

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 02:08 PM

choncc

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 02:08 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313902081598795780

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Recon observations indicate that #Delta was knocked down a bit by passing over land, as expected. Pressure is in ballpark of ~975 mb & max winds ~75-80 mph TCs need time after land passage to "reset" thermodynamically. Only a slow restrengthening rate rest of today seems li...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 02:08 PM

I'd like to know what happened with the recon pass, SFMR data this pass was pretty much useless.

Those SFMRs were all flagged, I wouldn't make conclusions off of it

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 02:23 PM

Going off FL reductions is just as low, 60-70kt

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 02:28 PM

Going off of sonde, I have to agree. But this system still has a crapload of energy

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 02:28 PM

Recon reports maximum Surface winds of 85 mph

looks pretty cute ngl (edited)

beard (fort worth) 07-Oct-20 02:30 PM

(24 hours later) OH MY GOD last pass showed 125mph winds!!!

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 02:30 PM

‍♂️ prolly

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 02:30 PM

As I said, it is still in restructuring mode

But it is coring up nicely

And that windfield is big chonk

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 07-Oct-20 02:49 PM

Trouble continues northwest side. Though most of the Gulf is high theta E, my guess is a patch of lingering dry air. Can we all say it? Maybe tonight. Bands north are a bullish sign though. Also no shear for 24 hours. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 03:17 PM

Around 10 AM

Core was still intact when it moved offshore

Got plenty of supportive OHC

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 07-Oct-20 03:31 PM

Keep in mind, too, that Delta is currently crossing the shadow left behind from Gamma, which was just in that area a few days ago. That may play a small, but important, role in the decrease in intensity. (edited)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 03:42 PM

I am watching infrared satellite of Delta, and I see the eye may be developing

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 03:43 PM

There has probably been an eye under the CDO since earlier

New HTs near the core

It will be some time (yet) for it to pop out on IR

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 03:44 PM

Last two VDMs had no eye character

So any core is wrapped less than halfway round the center

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 03:46 PM

The biggest improvement I have been seeing, however, is that the CDO lost that egg shape and the storm's circulation actually seems to extend up to the upper levels now with banding features. That wasn't present yesterday.

There are still hot towers where the eye should be on IR, but I expect that to improve over the next 12 hours

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 03:53 PM

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 03:55 PM

This is the most normal it has looked

Also WV gray ring

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 03:56 PM

it's still got the weird 'i'm going to convect in a straight line toward the fujiwhara centroid' thing going on

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 03:57 PM

It's CDO actually looks banded and not like an egg anymore at least.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 03:57 PM

yeah, the banding is a good sign for being normal. it's starting to finally emerge from the weird whatever the hell phase it was doing yesterday

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 04:16 PM

CTTs off the charts again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 04:26 PM

Pretty decent WV image this frame. Big white spot + gray ring + dry notch in NW quad continuing to fill in

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 04:29 PM

977

Deepening a little

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 04:29 PM

Yep

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 04:29 PM

think it's picking up some speed and going NW now.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 04:29 PM

ADT has weakening flag on, but that clearly isn't the case

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 04:31 PM

Soon as its inflow isn't choked off by the Yucatan it's time to go

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 04:31 PM

ADT prefers the banded cloud type. if it's going back into nautilus mode ADT will hate it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 04:33 PM

It looks like it is transitioning to banded tho

Is this a legit eye this time or another false eye?

3

It is showing up on vis a little, so IDK

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 04:36 PM

Its not showing up on COD site

It may be another false eye due to super high cloud tops

I am still not seeing any rotation of those towers

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 04:38 PM

1

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 04:43 PM

I feel like we do this every time with a cyclone lol. Don’t think it’s organized enough to have an eye yet

1

Well a visible eye

And recon now has an eye feature on the VDM

30 nm wide eye open to the east

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 04:45 PM

big pink blob is back in action.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 04:46 PM

Probably have to get it back to major tomorrow before it really shows up

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 04:58 PM

new towers forming in the band to the north? interesting

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 05:17 PM

Really starting to get going again

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 05:23 PM

5 PM advisory has top winds of Delta at 85 MPH

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 05:30 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 05:31 PM

not as well organized there on Microwave Satellite

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 05:32 PM

I think the NHC may have been too hasty on the reduction of their intensity forecast. It is on an organizing trend and is gaining steam again.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 05:33 PM

Delta sure lost quite a punch though Alex when compared to 18-24 hours ago

to go from 140 down to 85 in a short time...

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 05:35 PM

Honestly I would’ve kept the peak of 115kts (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 05:45 PM

Royce, what is your take?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 05:45 PM

new towers on the north side of the storm show that the nautilus is finally breaking down. it's going into two-tower mode

the two-tower setup, if they begin to rotation and not be stationary, is usually a precursor to eye development

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 05:46 PM

I think that is what the MW image showed as well

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 05:47 PM

i think we'll see an eye tomorrow morning. and it will be a major. not sure how much longer it will intensify past that. as after tomorrow afternoon shear becomes an issue

one thing we do know, is that hte wind field is HUGE. and the moisture field is literally the entire gulf. this storm will be massive when it makes landfall. and surge will be very wide. i dont think it makes it past 130mph again, but stranger things have happened

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 05:52 PM

Death to the Nautilus!!!

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 07-Oct-20 05:54 PM

https://youtu.be/h6yjOzEidBc

Tropical Tidbits

Delta Enters Gulf of Mexico; Expected to be a Powerful, Dangerous H...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Follow my Twitter for more frequent updates: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the offi...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 05:55 PM

for what its worth, many of the models take this down into the 940's, but winds never get above 100kts. why? size. big storm, slower winds. the exact opposite of yesterday (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 05:56 PM

Ah that explains the NHC’s wind estimates.

I wonder how big the windfield will be by tomorrow.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Oct-20 05:57 PM

https://tenor.com/view/yuge-huge-donald-trump-trump-donald-gif-7357158

Yuge

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 06:04 PM

HTs rotating down shear to the southern periphery

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 06:06 PM

If this thing is shaping out to be a bigger chungus than expected then I take back my doubts of the NHC, same intensification (pressure-wise) as expected plus the larger than expected core growth earlier today (ahead of schedule) would translate to lower winds, but an overall larger storm later on. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 06:08 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 06:11 PM

I expect what will happen tomorrow night is that shear will trigger an EWRC and the windfield will grow even bigger before landfall despite losing a few knots of windspeed before landfall. (edited)

We might end up with a Sally, perhaps not a major but a big Cat 2, however be faster-moving than Sally. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 06:15 PM

Honestly, Sally was likely a 100kt storm at landfall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 06:15 PM

What makes you say that?

Think it will be revised in post?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 06:25 PM

There’s a chance, it’s non-zero

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 07-Oct-20 06:40 PM

The storm's this year have done some weird things and models haven't been great, but we'll see

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 06:42 PM

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1313971163077455873/photo/1

Michael Fischer (@MikeFischerWx)

The inner core of Hurricane #Delta has become much better organized over the last few hours, with deep convection becoming increasingly symmetric throughout the eyewall.

5

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 07-Oct-20 06:53 PM

There is no doubt this storm at 85 mph looks a helluva lot better than it did when it was a cat 4 at 145 mph.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 06:54 PM

convective burst on the northwest quadrant

well below -90°C

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:02 PM

That burst is wrapping too

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 07:03 PM

Looking classic

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:05 PM

I am curious as to what the next recon will find

Probably a pressure drop but winds slower to catch up I'd guess

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 07:17 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1313975230340182017?s=21

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

Certainly concerning to see the inner core become re-established so quickly after landfall, this time as a more typical size core. Increasing odds we see another period of rapid intensification with #Delta in the Gulf of Mexico. https://t.co/XgmgL1U2Yt

Wakey Wakey eggs and bakey

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:24 PM

I am surprised to see it happen so quick, but also not surprised

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 07:26 PM

Delta rn: https://youtu.be/PirVtiJuvDs

Allan Carrington

Hello Boys I'm Back

This classic quote clip is from the 1996 Blockbuster Movie "Independence Day" I'm using it as an example in a lesson

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:26 PM

On one end, it has a larger core now and reorganization would take longer to occur, but on the other end it is a very high energy system

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 07:33 PM

it's pretty typical sized atm

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:34 PM

Looks like this recon flight is less prone to issue so far

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 07-Oct-20 07:34 PM

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/la5ruJAL9jdXUR-S6OsmR8R6XxxZKxxPIJKfruJIk3Y/https/media.discordapp.net/attachments/550108162020212776/763541790221140008/unknown.png

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:35 PM

That's my meme lol

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 07-Oct-20 07:35 PM

Good meme

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:37 PM

Thanks!

There are two recons heading into the storm?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:46 PM

Anyways, the insanity yesterday wasn't sustainable. Like I said before, the weakening was due to Delta entering a core building phase. That is now finished. So now it's go-time for Delta to become a real hurricane.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 07:50 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 07:52 PM

968, and we're back to cat 2/3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:52 PM

95 KT FL

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 07:53 PM

That was fast

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 07:53 PM

Lmao ikr

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 07:53 PM

winds haven't mixed down yet. this will take time. maybe morning

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:54 PM

Given this presentation? Yeah I can believe the flight data

That is a very intense wrapping CDO

Also a sonde recording 37 knot winds was dropped 120 miles from the center.

Yeah, that's big

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Oct-20 07:58 PM

What an ominous appearance

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 07:58 PM

will this storm have a bigger wind field than....katrina?

will it have a higher IKE rating than katrina? than laura? (which had a bigger ike than katrina)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 07:59 PM

Will it have a bigger IKE than Ike? Sorry, bad joke

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 08:00 PM

...DELTA STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 90.2W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico to a Tropical Storm Warning, and discontinued all warnings for the remainder of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 08:01 PM

Well that’s concerning

Approaching CAT2 already

JoshuaClark 07-Oct-20 08:21 PM

Impressive is all I can say.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 08:37 PM

Great Dvorak presentation

ADT likes it, though it will probably be some time before recon finds the winds catching up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.1 / 961.6mb/ 92.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.1 5.1 5.1

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 07-Oct-20 08:39 PM

HWRF stop please

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 08:44 PM

https://tenor.com/view/no-please-stop-stop-dont-will-ferrell-gif-10893312

HWRF with a tropical storm windfield from houston to NOLA

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 08:45 PM

Given recon and ADT, it's not unbelievable

ADT showing chungus windfield

As is recon

And it's only gonna get bigger

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 07-Oct-20 08:47 PM

https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1313915504579489796?s=20

Jesse Ferrell (@WeatherMatrix)

The NWS in Lake Charles is using a lot of the same strong language with Hurricane #Delta that they did with #Laura. And, unfortunately, once again in west/central Louisiana: "Widespread power & comm. outages. / Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks/months."

2

How wonderful

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 08:50 PM

GFS is also showing that windfield, Royce. As is HMON

So is CMC

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 07-Oct-20 08:50 PM

Wonder if KPLC might have to evacuate back to Baton Rouge again.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 08:51 PM

I would have them do it.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 08:59 PM

all I can say is that Delta will be moving much faster, relatively speaking, that Laura when it makes landfall right you all are mentioning

I am sorry if that is out of line...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:03 PM

This WV presentation tho

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 09:04 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:11 PM

Warming in the middle of the convec near the notch on the latest frame.

Is this an eye for real this time?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 07-Oct-20 09:18 PM

seems like to me that Delta is still a bit lopsided, especially in the northeast quadrant

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 07-Oct-20 09:25 PM

https://twitter.com/doceotors/status/1313945130240442370?s=19

Lora Perkins (@doceotors)

Just to give everyone an idea of the damage we haven't recovered from yet. This is an aerial shot of Lake Charles. Look at the blue tarps on all those roofs!

Retweets

504

Likes

879

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:25 PM

Eye is closed according to recon

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 07-Oct-20 09:28 PM

Eye is closed . .. . maybe its just sleeping... What happens if/when it wakes up... (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:28 PM

That notch is the eye popping out

https://tenor.com/view/i-finally-did-it-i-did-it-accomplished-finally-clash-royale-gif-14487933

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 07-Oct-20 09:31 PM

partial convective ring w/ the eyewall

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 09:32 PM

Not yet

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 09:35 PM

Winds are pretty close to mixing down

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:35 PM

It only recently closed, so it will take longer for IR to catch up

But the storm is getting it's act together and is popping an eye

Earlier than I expected too

I expected it to begin around midnight to 1 AM CDT, seems to have started early (edited)

What is going on with this recon flight data? It's been glitched for nearly an hour (edited)

beard (fort worth) 07-Oct-20 09:46 PM

It's blinking

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:51 PM

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

NOAA43 Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Flight status, tracking, and historical data for NOAA43 including scheduled, estimated, and actual departure and arrival times.

There is NOAA3 (edited)

They seem to have ditched and are going back to base

Probably mid-flight issues

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 09:52 PM

Omg

Every single time this year

Eye is poking out on visible IR

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 09:54 PM

Still got the AF recon at least

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Oct-20 09:54 PM

Just barely visible

beard (fort worth) 07-Oct-20 10:00 PM

I see nada

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 10:01 PM

It's there, it's just winking right now.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 10:02 PM

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

NOAA43 Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Flight status, tracking, and historical data for NOAA43 including scheduled, estimated, and actual departure and arrival times.

So stream cuts out, it looks like they are going back to base, it updates, and is revealed they are going around in circles

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 10:03 PM

it can also be delayed, couldn't it be?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 10:07 PM

They are heading in for another pass

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 10:32 PM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Oct-20 10:35 PM

There's hints of a formative eye

Though it's not this small.......

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-Oct-20 10:39 PM

thats def an eye trying to from, you can see it on WV. but the tower is actually pushing the warmer air around it

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 10:45 PM

Eye opened back up in the SW

32 nm wide

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-Oct-20 10:51 PM

this system is just compact really.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 07-Oct-20 10:59 PM

that escalated quickly

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 11:23 PM

CDO obscuring eye again

But can we appreciate that epic outflow structure?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 11:43 PM

It should be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

Hmmm

1

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 11:46 PM

102 knots flight level

77 knots SFMR

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 07-Oct-20 11:47 PM

Well then

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 11:47 PM

A blend of the two would support ~100 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Oct-20 11:59 PM

Purples are expanding NE

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 12:00 AM

I am curious as to why the winds and size are increasing despite the pressure rise

Unless the pressure rise is a fluke

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 12:03 AM

Pressure is about steady I’d say. Drops aren’t quite centered

Probably in the 974mb range yet

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Oct-20 12:34 AM

That outflow to the east is just amazing, compared to yesterday especially

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 12:50 AM

microwave shows a freaky lopsided eye thats about 70 miles wide

that's not odd at all. nope not one bit.

beard (fort worth) 08-Oct-20 01:09 AM

It's such an unorganized blob of destruction. Reminds me of my drunk uncle trying to fight at the pool hall.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:13 AM

A sonde shows 103 knot winds 621 feet off the surface

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) A 70 mile wide eye covered completely by CDO?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:45 AM

1 AM advisory brings it back up to Cat 2

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 08-Oct-20 01:46 AM

Indeed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:49 AM

That upgrade was coming.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 07:20 AM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 08:03 AM

So close yet so far

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 08:50 AM

No eye, but this is one big chungus

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 09:15 AM

90 knot SFMR

Creeping closer to major status

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 09:34 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 09:49 AM

Here we go, dual HTs again.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 09:58 AM

Is it doing it

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Oct-20 10:08 AM

It's teased us so many times I don't know what to believe

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 10:10 AM

It's there on vis

So that's different?

Max (Saint John, NB) 08-Oct-20 10:10 AM

I'm just going with yes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 10:11 AM

Should ne noted pressure is declining again too

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 10:23 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/mpswtcke/2020al26_mpswtcke_202010081200.gif

shifting from a wind storm to an IKE storm

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 10:52 AM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/761981433606438913/763775506419023962/COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.04.20201008.145025-overmap-bars.gif

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 10:52 AM

962. eye starting to peak out

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 10:54 AM

Up to 105

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 10:55 AM

ships and ripa still giving 20-30% odds of a rebound to cat 4

hwrf and hmon like a high end cat 3 of 940-950mb

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 10:56 AM

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength. Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity guidance.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:00 AM

yup. 12 hours of good conditions then neutral for another 12. we might get the last burst overnight

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 11:06 AM

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 08-Oct-20 11:11 AM

️ see you

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 11:11 AM

Its clouding over again...

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-Oct-20 11:15 AM

Popping out pretty clearly on IR.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:33 AM

Looks to be currently going over peak OHC

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:35 AM

mind i remind everyoen the eye is nearly 70 miles wide at this point. it's a big lumbering dumbell

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:36 AM

70 miles? You sure? 70 miles is huge for an eye, you mean eye + eyewall?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:37 AM

the eyewall is well deep into the cloud tops on the sides of the eye

eyewall to eyewall its just massive. i expect it to stabilize now that an 'eye' is finally forming

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:38 AM

For reference Lake Michigan is 50 miles wide. Eye doesn't appear to be as wide on Sat

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:39 AM

the 'eye' is just a hole in the clouds at this point

the actual eyewall diamater is near 70 miles. from the center of the 'eye' to the actual eyewall convection going up (not just the cirrus blowoff) is about 30-35 miles

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:41 AM

Yeah, the apparent size of the eyewall ring is close to the size of Lake Michigan on that image, likely larger taking into account latitudal map distortion. But I would say the clear calm parts of the eye are 40 miles across. (edited)

With 15 mile across eyewall rings

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:41 AM

its hard to say w/o radar confirm. the blow-off from the tops are obscuring where the exact wall location is. and micro isn't very accurate (edited)

normally the winds aloft blow the cirrus tops outward from the towers radially, but the winds instead are just allowing the tops to get recycled back in toward the eyewall and eye

not sure if this is due to lack of divergence aloft or what?

new lightnign in the N eyewall. screw the Dmin, delta says

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:47 AM

Delta is still in an organization phase while also intensifying.

That northern band isn't screwing around

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 11:47 AM

Wrong photo lmao

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:48 AM

name another storm that had -94C tops that far north in the ATL?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:49 AM

Andrew maybe?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:52 AM

i was gonna say dorian, was about the same lat

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 11:52 AM

Dorian's cloud tops were very mild

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:52 AM

michael, katrina were same lat or further north, but pretty warm tops

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 11:52 AM

Michael had the coolest tops of those 3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:53 AM

since this storm is later in the season, and the enviornment is a little cooler, do you think the lapse rates (that are higher during the late fall) are causing the higher tops and sky-high EL?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:53 AM

That northern band developed quite a bit since last frame. The origin of the lightning seems to have rotated too.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 11:53 AM

Think so Royce

Usually October systems especially in the west basin have colder cloud tops

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:54 AM

The clouds probably are at the same height as Katrina's or any other storm, just colder environment, which would make sense. (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 11:54 AM

Also for future reference

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:55 AM

i wonder if climate change will have some sort of story with this. warm waters late in the season, cool outbreaks further south leading to high lapse rates, higher PWET content? is this will future late-season storms will be like?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 11:55 AM

Michael VDM was 966mb and like 90kt SW for a while, this won't be a michael but the ceiling for a higher end Cat-3 makes sense if it keeps up this trend

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:55 AM

Yeah I don't think the cloud tops are actually taller, just with colder air at lower levels

The cooler air at lower levels would lead to the development of ice crystals which would explain the lightning as well.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:56 AM

good point. this storm was never directly UNDER the high pressure, so the EL would be lower. lower EL means colder tops even at a lower elevation

the closer delta gets to the trough, the lower the environmental EL will be. this actually will encourage even steeper lapse rates. interesting...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 11:58 AM

Dvorak going crazy, raw T at 7.5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 11:58 AM

i figured that would happen when an eye popped. this storm (if not for the cold water to the north and shear) would be 24 hours from a cat-5 buzzsaw

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 12:07 PM

Windfield according to ADT

For what it's worth. LA has been experiencing the storm's outer bands since last night

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 12:12 PM

when the storm is 48 hours out and you're already getting bands? its a chungus

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 12:13 PM

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 08-Oct-20 12:15 PM

I think they meant Arkansas

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 12:16 PM

towers 'fing up the eye again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 12:23 PM

Maybe peak DMIN will finally clear it? (edited)

lol ADT thinks it's "weakening"

Another tower forming to the south BTW

Going dual mode again

If it doesn't pop a long-lasting visible eye after this round, then I don't know if it will.

Location of the HTs line up nicely with this

Now since the southern one is popping out will it wrap and close that off?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 12:44 PM

seems like when the Eye of Delta appears, it gets obscured on satellite by these convective bursts

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 01:00 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.1 / 961.8mb/ 92.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.1 6.3 7.2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 01:02 PM

What do these numbers mean?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:04 PM

It means ADT thinks it is becoming more solid

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 01:05 PM

It looks more solid, despite the lack of fully clear eye, although its been mostly visible on Sat for a while now.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:05 PM

ADT thinks the eye is actually halfway exposed

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 01:12 PM

It looks better on Visible than IR tbh

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 08-Oct-20 01:12 PM

The storm doesn't have very long to go, so it might be the case that it will never develop an actual visible eye.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 01:14 PM

so the raw T is the pure dvorak estimate, then they run it thorugh an alorgitm to get the adjusted T. finally it does 1 more alg that factors in the eye, and that's teh Final T, aka CI

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 01:14 PM

And its up to 8 correct?

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 08-Oct-20 01:16 PM

On the other hand, the endlessly repeating "oh...this is it, the eye is definitely clearing out! Oh...wait, guess not..." is entertaining to say the least.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 01:16 PM

the raw T spiked up to 7.2 which is big. but the adjusted and finals are much lower. about 6.3 and 5.2

if it was to reach a 7 across teh board, that would be a high end cat 4 / cat 5

technicall the scale goes to 8 (Haiyan). but haiyan unofficially was like an 8.5 (edited)

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:22 PM

Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.1 5.0 5.0

ADT likely had a stroke earlier

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 01:23 PM

it saw an eye and went nuts

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:24 PM

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 08-Oct-20 01:25 PM

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1314254995429130245?s=19

National Weather Service (@NWS)

Mobile radar on the way – U of Oklahoma’s Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (@oucimms) and @NOAA @NEXRADROC are deploying a mobile radar unit to Lake Charles, LA to provide additional radar coverage during Hurricane Delta.

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 01:26 PM

Still has a white ring, had to tell that to the weenies assuming the eye is "disrupted"

If you ask me the eye should clear out by peak DMIN in a few hours

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 01:31 PM

Will they hook that radar data into the system, or will only the mets at Lake Charles be able to see the data feeds?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 01:38 PM

hurricane force flight winds....150+ miles NE of the eye (edited)

lightning keeps up near the center. shear is starting to pick up a bit. but now is the time where we wonder about baroclinic intensification

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 02:02 PM

Dvorak back up again

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.3 / 957.9mb/ 97.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.3 6.2 6.6

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 02:09 PM

Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday

"Possible", not "Expected"

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 02:23 PM

It is hard to see here, but there is lightning on both sides of the developing eye

Dual mode partially cleared eye

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 02:24 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 02:26 PM

It is currently going into dual mode partially cleared eye. I expect this to be a major by the 4 PM update.

It is starting to resemble a classic medium-large Cat 3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 02:41 PM

Dvorak spiking again, Raw T of 7.0 It is a Category 3 according to ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.5 / 954.0mb/102.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.5 6.2 7.0

ADT also advertising a massive windfield

Also the eyewall is already appearing on long-range radar, eyewall cells are 60,000 ft +

That far out and already showing up on radar Yep, it's a tall chungus on top of being a big chungus

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 03:03 PM

But is it a strong chungus? That is the question

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:03 PM

ADT says yes

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.7 / 949.8mb/107.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.7 6.2 7.0

CI# up since last time

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 03:04 PM

Its cranking up some huge towers to the north, you can see them rapidly rotate around

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 03:09 PM

Triangle

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:11 PM

That looks like a 115 mph intensifying Cat 3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:22 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.9 / 947.1mb/112.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.9 6.2 6.5

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 03:22 PM

Eye really starting to show again.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:22 PM

she's still going up folks. towers are now on the UPSHEAR side. (shear is from the SSW)

idont think we'll see RI, but slow to moderate intensification is happening

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:23 PM

Recon is arriving soon, so we will see what unfolds

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:24 PM

the towers are no longer stationary, they are rotating rapidly aroudn the eye. this is where an eye should drop out finally, and we get a solid eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:24 PM

That only took how long?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:25 PM

the overshooting tops should look like fuse-wire lighting atop the CDO in a circle

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:25 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:26 PM

IR has been shwoing the typical 'fan' pattern that usually preceeds eye formation. its been hinting all day

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:26 PM

Yet the weenies were claiming it's falling apart earlier

like lol

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 03:29 PM

Eye is really taking shape now'

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:39 PM

based on current ADT estimates: Storm Total IKE TS-50 (TJ) 51.708 Storm Total IKE 50-H (TJ) 30.416 Storm Total IKE H (TJ) 23.369 IKETS(TJ) 105.494 SDP 4.966 (edited)

that puts the IKE at about 80% of Katrina. and the surge about .2 categories below katrina

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 03:41 PM

Thats just current, not projected correct?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:41 PM

With in-situ data IKE can be estimated much more accurately, and it looks to be lower than ADT's figs

Looks like they're overdoing the windfield a little

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:41 PM

yup, ADT is likely high right now. but if the storm does intensify it will get closer to being accurate

think of ADT as the 'top end' of what this storm could do overnight.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:46 PM

It is unlikely it will hit Cat 4 again, but we should remember it broke ADT in the WCarib, and it could do it again.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:47 PM

well... it broke ADT by not having a cleared out eye

and a core capable of ERI

neither apply here

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:48 PM

I said it was unlikely, Ian, but point was what we've seen this storm do means we should consider any possibility even the really unlikely ones. I do not think it will get to Cat 4 again, I find a 120-125 mph peak more likely, but from what we have seen weirder things have happened

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:49 PM

the sat-based wind radii are slightly bigger than the recon based radii. however the recon based are still very impressive and large

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:49 PM

I'm saying ADT doesn't really have much relevance here. The HWRF and HMON have both hinted at a cat 4 over the Gulf so it's certainly possible, Alex.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:50 PM

ADT windfield should be considered more as how large it might get in a few hours

When more mixing down occurs

Recon always lags behind ADT

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:51 PM

With all those hurricane force winds aloft an expansion seems inevitable

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:52 PM

If the Dvorak presentation persists for the next few hours I can see that windfield happening

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:52 PM

Been consistently spitting out eyewall lightning

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 03:52 PM

Nmax starts in 3-4 hours. right as the sun sets. who's ready?

5

wow, that eye is looking sexy on IR finally

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:54 PM

Yep

My money is on 115 mph next advisory

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:56 PM

Based on VDMs that's still only a small portion of the eye - should be interesting once it fully clears

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:57 PM

Having a big greek-named major in the gulf feels really weird to me

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:58 PM

Welcome to unprecedented

None of the greek named storms in 2005 made it into the Gulf

So far this year, 3 have.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 03:58 PM

Or became majors

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 03:59 PM

Beta was a cat 3 in the Caribbean (and deserved retirement)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 03:59 PM

OG Beta

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 04:00 PM

How many hurricane strikes has the US got this year?

Hannah, Isais, Laura, what else

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 04:01 PM

sally

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 04:01 PM

Ah right

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 04:03 PM

healthy ring

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 04:04 PM

sat, pressure, Ci rating all indicate borderline cat2/3 (edited)

how can wind indicate wind? i can't type, too much going on at work + this

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 04:20 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 04:29 PM

~93kt, on the SW eyewall...

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-Oct-20 04:33 PM

ADT says it’s a cat 4

3

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 04:35 PM

954 mb extrapolated

It's bombs away again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 04:38 PM

119 knots flight level

Only 87 SFMR in the NE

Haven’t quite mixed down yet

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Oct-20 04:47 PM

If the eyewall stays closed off don't see why this can't make a run for high cat 3 and 940s at this rate

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 04:47 PM

959 mb eye drop

SW eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 04:50 PM

Look how far that extends

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 04:50 PM

If it can find a way to bundle it a bit...

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 04:53 PM

eyewall now closed per VDM

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 08-Oct-20 04:55 PM

aaand its a major again

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 05:01 PM

They have peak at 125

But I could see 130 (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 05:03 PM

cat 4 flight level winds, should mix down by morning. i think 130 is realistic. that's what HWRF and HMON were close to all day

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 05:10 PM

They are really finding strong winds quite a ways out on their recon right now. wow

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Oct-20 05:11 PM

That big wind field very bad news for surge reasons

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 05:12 PM

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 05:14 PM

Not saying they are comparable, but how does this thing size, strength, and surge compare with...Katrina...?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 08-Oct-20 05:16 PM

Does this answer the size question?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 05:16 PM

Yup. Thanks

Delta is getting there, but it will have a ways to go.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-Oct-20 05:19 PM

Delta is getting there, but it will have a ways to go.

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) Delta will never make that wind field.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 05:20 PM

I know, it will have a ways to go. I phrased that poorly

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 08-Oct-20 05:24 PM

Data from the Mobile radar that is going to Lake Charles will be publicly available here once the Radar is in place https://twitter.com/NEXRADROC/status/1314273739257901059

NEXRAD ROC (@NEXRADROC)

@SarahDillingham @NWS @OUCIMMS @NOAA Available via this link: https://t.co/dkca6d90l8

2

http://smartr.metr.ou.edu/smartr2/latest/

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 05:25 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) can we pin this link?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 05:26 PM

The whole mobile radar thing is good for data but also makes me think they're already planning on the still slightly battered radar to die again

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 05:27 PM

Is it even up? Its not on 'Scope

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 05:35 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al26/mpswtcke/2020al26_mpswtcke_202010082100.gif

moving on up. to the IKE side

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 05:35 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.2 / 940.6mb/119.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.2 6.2 6.9

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 08-Oct-20 05:36 PM

The radar at the NWS Lake Charles office never got back online

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 05:38 PM

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/202026L_wind_ssmis.gif

satcon beginning to follow the ADT. satcon is usually a better fit to recon obs than ADT.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 08-Oct-20 05:43 PM

Pinned a message.

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) pinned

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 05:49 PM

Incredible

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 05:50 PM

The mimic data. Look at the size of the moisture envelope

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 08-Oct-20 05:59 PM

https://youtu.be/8Qdtz7F6dNY

Tropical Tidbits

Delta Strengthening; Landfall in Western Louisiana Expected Friday ...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Follow my Twitter for more frequent updates: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the offi...

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 08-Oct-20 06:16 PM

949.2 mb

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 06:23 PM

Winds still not mixing down but the pressure fall shows it's probably close

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 06:25 PM

And when they do they are probably going to spread out more than get stronger. (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 08-Oct-20 07:26 PM

https://twitter.com/MargaretOrr/status/1314346300905852929?s=19 (edited)

Margaret Orr (@MargaretOrr)

30 foot seas near Delta Center. @wdsu #nola #lawx #Delta

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 07:35 PM

SFMRs higher this pass

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 07:40 PM

Hot towers just obscured the eye they're exploding so much again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 07:57 PM

Pressure down to 956 this advisory

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 08:18 PM

I still say for a major hurricane, Delta still looks lopsided on infrared satellite

all the cold cloud tops are on the southwest side

those are not completely wrapping around the center

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 08-Oct-20 08:20 PM

Deja Vu

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 08:23 PM

Comments that aged quickly ^

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 08:24 PM

are you referring to my comments Alex?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 08:25 PM

yeah, because 2 minutes later the frame is posted with an HT ring firing on the eastern half. Nothing against you lol just thought it was kinda funny

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 08:25 PM

ah

hope you understood where I was coming from

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 08:26 PM

It looked like it at first but Delta has had a history today of warming and then throwing up HTs on the eastern side

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 08:26 PM

true

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 08-Oct-20 08:28 PM

Some fairly heavy rain right now, and for the last two or three hours. These are still "just" outer bands, but some training thunderstorms have set up over Alexandria.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 08:28 PM

For this sort of situation I have taken the approach of look for lightning in the warmer regions, because if there is an uptick or burst of lightning, especially a moving one, an HT band is likely to pop out soon after.

There was a lightning spike after it warmed out

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 08-Oct-20 08:29 PM

Nhc is calling for major landfall now, that changed quick.

Wait what I'm really late F.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 08:35 PM

105 knots per ATCF

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 08:54 PM

The lopsided blob is upshear. This is not a weakening signal. Give it time

2

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 08:57 PM

Thank you for that tidbit there Royce

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 08:58 PM

This storm is half a buzzsaw. 12 hours of good conditions left

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-Oct-20 08:59 PM

ah

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 09:00 PM

https://twitter.com/andclimatology/status/1314367387714674688?s=21

Modeling and Climatology (@AndClimatology)

The mass exodus of people from the #Louisiana coast ahead of #HurricaneDelta has begun. #Delta

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 09:02 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.2 / 937.4mb/119.8kt

Ci is now higher than the raw T scores.

Once winds mix down or if, I expect this to be a cat 4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-Oct-20 09:13 PM

Is recon in the storm right now?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 09:14 PM

yes

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-Oct-20 09:15 PM

Ok. I wasn’t sure if they were.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-Oct-20 09:19 PM

Ships has a 105-110 kt peak and landfall shortly after. Strong forward speed will make the NE quad quite a bit worse

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 09:25 PM

28.5 foot wave at 42002

Max (Saint John, NB) 08-Oct-20 09:35 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/763935342164181053/09f0a055-e7c3-48cc-9cfc-79fb82ac2137.gif

helloeye

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-Oct-20 09:36 PM

You can see the eye wall storms from the brownsville radar

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 08-Oct-20 09:36 PM

Cold tops wrapping all around the center

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 08-Oct-20 10:28 PM

Intense upshear convection now

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 10:57 PM

11pm/120 mph/955mb

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Oct-20 10:57 PM

Nhc thinks it has 6ish hours left until unfavorable conditions hit it

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 08-Oct-20 10:58 PM

They only have peak at 120 but stress there's literally a category of uncertainty so

Hold onto our butts over the next 24 hours

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 12:09 AM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 09-Oct-20 12:21 AM

A very very robust hurricane still

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 12:31 AM

953 mb eye drop

Lowest pressure I believe it has recorded even per-Yucatán landfall

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Oct-20 12:35 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1314423511990128642

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

If anyone is following along at home, get a bag of popcorn and pull up the NOAA Buoy Data. Station 42002 is about to take the eyewall of #HurricaneDelta

1

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 12:35 AM

eyewall already passed

72kt was the max sustained, about to enter the eye

J. Mike Sheard (KY) 09-Oct-20 12:42 AM

https://twitter.com/CF3_Weather/status/1314397395300483072?s=20

Trey Fulbright (@CF3_Weather)

Evacuation gridlock on I-10 headed west out of Lake Charles, LA, this evening... #lawx #Delta https://t.co/4mVGrnwNNW

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Oct-20 01:00 AM

Cat 4 winds just 100 feet off the surface? Wow.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 09-Oct-20 01:03 AM

Don't know

It's presentation hasn't appeared as great in the past hour or so, eye has disappeared, the cold tops surrounding the center have kinda let up a bit

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 01:05 AM

Buoy now at 955.0 mb with 25 kt winds

Actually at 953.4 mb now at 7 knots (edited)

The buoy actually hit the eye and the center of it

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 09-Oct-20 01:17 AM

What a perfectly placed buoy

Would not be shocked if pressure keeps falling a bit as this gets bigger even if surface winds dont catch up

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 01:29 AM

What an absolute unit. Delta really is holding on steady. Probably until morning

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 03:23 AM

FL winds of 125 knots

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 03:34 AM

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 09-Oct-20 03:39 AM

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1314445417426251776

NWS Lake Charles (@NWSLakeCharles)

With Hurricane Delta expected to make landfall in less than 24 hours, OU has partnered with NWS to offer their "doppler on wheels" mobile radar for use during the storm. The radar data is publicly available and can be viewed at this address...https://t.co/MQ69J9MExi

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 08:33 AM

Shear is finally doing it's thing. Satcon says it likely peaked a around midnight. (edited)

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 08:35 AM

Lowest pressure on a VDM was at 4z, so right about then

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 09:01 AM

satcon had it a full category higher than obs. likely the winds never got a chance to mix down. and cimss had it going cat 5, again, never got a chance to mature

towers makign another pass at going upshear? maybe delta's not dead yet?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 10:13 AM

the bayou between lake charles and morgan city is going to just about disspear when this thign passes

6-12 feet of surge likely across most of the bayou. layfeyette and morgan city under the gun big-time

there are alot of small towns around morgan city that could see surge well inland., and morgan city has a levee but that's always a threat to fail

1

places like delcambre are still recovering from RITA, which left the entire city underwater

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 09-Oct-20 10:44 AM

Is it me or does it seem like the storm is moving quicker?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 10:49 AM

it should be. 30 kts of shear from teh south

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 11:06 AM

TS force winds likely from houston to NOLA. that's a big wind field

bouys reportings 20 foot waves so far

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 11:13 AM

42002 recorded a 35 foot wave last night as the eye went directly over it

Probably some higher than that around the eye

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 11:20 AM

if we get landfall at 100kts. we'll have double major landfalls 15 miles apart

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 09-Oct-20 11:59 AM

NAM 3km and HRRR have some decent instability (approaching 1000 J/Kg ML and 1000-1500 SBCAPE) especially across central and south Alabama tomorrow, low level velocity and shear look very favorable as well,

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 12:00 PM

yup. high lapse rates+ good upper level winds mean great support for tors

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 09-Oct-20 12:04 PM

Alabama is worth a try if local, or already down there. I'm not sure if it's worth a long trip.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 09-Oct-20 12:07 PM

Yeah looks like a good tropical setup. Think maybe clouds will be an issue, soundings showing some pretty meh lapse rates at best due to cloud cover, but if some clearing can occur the wind field is already there, should be conducive for tornadoes tomorrow

beard (fort worth) 09-Oct-20 12:47 PM

Sooooooo delta is suppose to begin it's turn when?

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 09-Oct-20 12:49 PM

we just lost power, yay outer bands

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 12:56 PM

its barely moving east of north right now

predicted to hit just 15 miles east of laura's landfall. moving at about 010 degrees atm, landfall within 3-4 hours

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 01:55 PM

East turn well on its way per recon

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 09-Oct-20 01:57 PM

...DELTA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE LANDFALL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 93.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:30 PM

SO, when is the landfall expected now?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:34 PM

I’d say 5 hours away from official landfall, eyewall will come ashore an hour or two before that

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:38 PM

And surge well before that

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 02:39 PM

Surge's already started to come in

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:42 PM

FRWL1 already has some serious surge

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:43 PM

Has 2 hurricanes making landfall less than 20 miles apart in the same season ever happened before?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:43 PM

2004 in Florida might fit that

Same location about 3 weeks apart (edited)

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 02:44 PM

Frances and Jeanne both made landfall on Hutchinson Island, yep

Cat 2 and 3 respectively

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:46 PM

If Delta can maintain its Cat 3, it would be first time for both majors though correct?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:46 PM

Well it’s a cat 2 now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:46 PM

Oh. I thought it was still major. My bad

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:46 PM

Very unlikely it will strengthen before landfall

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:46 PM

Yep

Not gonna matter as far as impacts to land though

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:47 PM

Yeah it just got lowered about 45 minutes ago

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:47 PM

They are still showing it as Cat 3 on NHC website (edited)

115 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:49 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:49 PM

Guess thats the 10am update. I see they have updated the Public advisory to show 110mph. Kinda confusing that way

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:49 PM

Yeah the 1pm changed it

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:49 PM

I am still very new to this

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:51 PM

FWCL1 is going up fast.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:52 PM

its going to keep coming up till the low passes right? As long as the winds are onshore?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 02:54 PM

Yep

With a weakening system, you usually see surge extend where there's offshore flow as well

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 02:55 PM

Just from momentum?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 02:56 PM

Well when a storm weakens the surge doesn't really decrease

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 02:56 PM

Down to 105 mph at the 2pm update.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 09-Oct-20 03:12 PM

my video from Texas City/Galveston Bay: https://youtu.be/OdY21woUQ74

TJ Kleckner

Wind, Waves, Fishermen: Hurricane Delta Texas City Dike

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Oct-20 03:47 PM

60 knot gusts at Texas Point, 44 at Cameron, 41 at Freshwater Canal Locks, 39 knot gusts at Lake Charles (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 04:02 PM

Its getting close (edited)

I am guessing landfall around 5pm CDT, unless it stalls out a bit.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 09-Oct-20 04:06 PM

eyewall edge moving onshore now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 09-Oct-20 04:17 PM

Yep. Here. We. Go.

Ken McWatters (Tulsa, OK) 09-Oct-20 04:17 PM

On Radarscope I see 3 chasers at the LA coastline for the intercept.. hope they make it out ok!

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Oct-20 04:34 PM

RIP Freshwater Canal Locks station

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Oct-20 04:48 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Oct-20 04:52 PM

front right quad lines up almost perfectly /w the bay. gonna be a lot of water up into the bayous

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 09-Oct-20 05:47 PM

https://www.facebook.com/HailTrace/videos/3929523080394680 Hail Trace is live if any one is interested

Log into Facebook | Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 05:54 PM

Over 7 feet of surge at FWCL1 currently, still climbing

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 09-Oct-20 06:41 PM

evening

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Oct-20 06:50 PM

evening Glen

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 09-Oct-20 07:04 PM

Delta has officially made landfall

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Oct-20 07:40 PM

Texas point, Sabine Pass, TX with a gust to 100 mph. Sustained at 77 mph

Now sustained at 80 mph.

Jennings, Louisiana with an 80 mph gust

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 09-Oct-20 07:54 PM

5

4

3

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Oct-20 07:58 PM

On point with forecast so far. Landfell as a mid Cat 2 but weakened to Cat 1 quickly after landfall. Inland at 90 mph

It's completely reasonable for it to rapidly weaken even if landfalling at 100 mph or more, without the back half of the eyewall to have over water to sustain it's core it's gonna weaken pretty quick

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 09-Oct-20 08:00 PM

at least it's not like Isaias, always good I suppose

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 09-Oct-20 08:01 PM

It's strongest part still affected land when it was still 100-110 mph

With a storm of this structure what it was at or right after landfall is a moot point.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 09-Oct-20 08:30 PM

https://twitter.com/SibleyDerek/status/1314723238560268290

Derek Sibley (@SibleyDerek)

Standing in the wind from the back half of #Delta from earlier.

https://t.co/d07mKFg2iV

https://twitter.com/WXgage/status/1314724903313199104

Gage Shaw (@WXgage)

@operation_chase trying to chill #Delta out a little bit. I think it’s working as our winds are slowly dying down. https://t.co/JJET9fdWtI

3

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 09-Oct-20 08:37 PM

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 10-Oct-20 02:48 AM

This server during a non major landfall: i sleep

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 10-Oct-20 03:05 AM

It's Friday night, people are out hangin with friends and gaming and stuff.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 10-Oct-20 03:07 AM

Ye I know, just a joke

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 10-Oct-20 03:09 AM

Delta is a TS as of 1 AM btw

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 10-Oct-20 03:12 AM

Well

At least we had a Greek hurricane landfall in the Us for the first time

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 10-Oct-20 03:13 AM

It's rapid weakening from Cat 2 then 1 then to TS can probably be attributed to the loss of the southern eyewall, without keeping a southern eyewall over water to sustain it's core it'd weaken quickly. Mid-Cat 2 winds likely affected the coast before landfall

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 10-Oct-20 03:13 AM

That's one for the record books

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 10-Oct-20 03:16 AM

Also 2 storms in the same spot in one season is a rarity (edited)

And record total US hurricane landfalls

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 10-Oct-20 04:58 AM

yep it is

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 10-Oct-20 08:56 AM

Season ain't over yet

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 10-Oct-20 09:47 AM

Funny how there was far more chatter on this channel before it made landfall than during the actual landfall event

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 10-Oct-20 09:56 AM

I suppose we have to wait till later today to find out what the max surge was.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 10-Oct-20 10:14 AM

Landfall was during the work day, for me at least.

beard (fort worth) 10-Oct-20 11:38 AM

During landfall we can watch lives streams and stop guessing on what it will do and see what it is actually doing.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Oct-20 11:39 AM

https://twitter.com/nhc_surge/status/1314937126715297796?s=21

NHC Storm Surge (@NHC_Surge)

(2/2) Based on a model simulated hindcast and our preliminary analysis of #Delta's surge, slightly higher inundation is likely to have occurred just west of the @noaaocean tide station at Freshwater Canals Locks.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Oct-20 04:42 PM

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1315029347854479360?s=21

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Delta Advisory 25: Delta Becomes a Non-Tropical Low. Heavy Rain Threat Continues. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 10-Oct-20 05:16 PM

Delta gave me 2 tornado warnings, pretty epic

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Oct-20 07:22 PM

I had a reservation at six flags today, good thing I rescheduled that I guess lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 11-Oct-20 08:32 PM

https://twitter.com/WeatherGoinWILD/status/1315448257359876097

WeatherGoingWILD (@WeatherGoinWILD)

- #HurricaneDelta from #LakeArthur #Louisiana https://t.co/aEDS63DGkA

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 11-Oct-20 08:38 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/765001204484407317/Ej-ALNMX0AEedLx.png

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 12-Oct-20 04:03 AM

WPC issued last advisory

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 12-Oct-20 10:40 AM

Where is a good place to find out hoe much surge Delta actually generated?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 12-Oct-20 04:29 PM

https://twitter.com/nhc_surge/status/1314935164158586880?s=21

NHC Storm Surge (@NHC_Surge)

(1/2) @noaaocean has recovered water level data from the tide station at Freshwater Canal Locks, LA, measured during Hurricane #Delta, and a preliminary analysis indicates a peak near 9 ft Mean Higher High Water (inundation) at that station.

So about 9-10ft of surge with Delta

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 12-Oct-20 05:37 PM

https://twitter.com/225MPH_EF4/status/1315768575286796288?s=20

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 12-Oct-20 06:29 PM

Finally got electricity back.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Oct-20 10:07 PM

Good to hear

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Oct-20 10:18 PM

I love when I draw random lines with my gut feeling and it somehow verifies

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 13-Oct-20 10:21 PM

Damn, you got the landfall point spot on

beard (fort worth) 13-Oct-20 10:22 PM

So it's your fault @Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Oct-20 10:23 PM

If it makes it any worse I also jokingly said Dorian would be a category 5 hurricane before it even passed Puerto Rico (edited)

I say a lot of things either half serious or not serious at all that somehow are accurate, not sure why

I am a curse

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Oct-20 10:26 PM

or a muse.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Oct-20 10:26 PM

Hmmm

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Oct-20 10:27 PM

Rubs Sasha's belly as we got out and chase next year.

4

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Oct-20 10:28 PM

Lmao

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Oct-20 10:34 PM

beard (fort worth) 13-Oct-20 10:39 PM

You should start tweeting out about pan handle wedges.

1

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Oct-20 10:40 PM

I might

May have actually jokingly said May (21st) 2019 would be a high risk in November 2018

(edited)

6

Of course I had to be one day off

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 13-Oct-20 11:52 PM

@Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 I made similar about comments about michael. I was stationed at Tyndall when it hit and for years said that a big one would hit soon and no one would expect it. Said it would destroy the area. Wasn’t wrong.

Was at Whiteman AFB when it got clipped by a tornado, was at Tyndall for Michael, a week after I left Offutt, it flooded. Now I’m at McConnell which has been hit, or clipped by 3 or 4 tornadoes in its history.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Oct-20 11:58 PM

Damn.

Sorry to hear about what happened with Michael