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EVENT ARCHIVE / hurricane-isaias-2020
<:category1:616342499702865951> 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 | Location: 32.8°N 79.0°W | Moving: NNE at 16 mph | Min pressure: 988 mb | Max sustained: 75 mph
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 28-Jul-20 12:02 PM
Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 16.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 30/0000Z 17.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 20.1N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.1N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 26.8N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:03 PM
Yeah I've been waatching this off and on.
That bermuda High will have a big play in this.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 28-Jul-20 12:10 PM
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM
@Nick (Wilmington, NC) hi
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM
local FB pages here are already losing their minds
Hello Mr Glen
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM
really lol
Hello
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 28-Jul-20 12:12 PM
Yeah people are sick in the head
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:12 PM
agreed
Cat 1-2 would be interesting.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 28-Jul-20 12:17 PM
Euro?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 12:18 PM
Recon finding some impressive flight level winds so far
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 01:05 PM
Sign me up for the hype train
This is like a 6000 cape day in the plains. High potential. Lots of mesoscale variables
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 01:05 PM
@webberweather Uncanny that you mention Matthew. I just finished recording my video discussion for this early afternoon and mentioned Matthew as well. Yikes.
It's certainly a little troubling to see borderline hurricane-force flight level winds already in a system that hasn't fully developed yet. Certainly reminds me a bit of pre-#Matthew (2016)... https://t.co/EQqwiZPTGX
Matthew comparisons
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 01:13 PM
Matthew at 09/30/16 00 UTC SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (NO MICROWAVE) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 SHIPS-RII 20.5% 38.0% 26.5% 20.4% 16.3% Logistic 16.2% 27.4% 16.7% 12.0% 0.0% Bayesian 5.3% 12.7% 4.2% 1.8% 1.1% Consensus 14.0% 26.0% 15.8% 11.4% 5.8% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
compare to this morning: Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 25.0% 15.3% 10.9% 9.7% 13.0% 34.3% 54.8%
its' no matthew (yet) but it's worth being a little nervous over
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 28-Jul-20 01:59 PM
Looks like the western part of it took over today
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 02:00 PM
Recon is investigating the eastern part and no wind shift at all, might just have one area of vorticity left
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 28-Jul-20 02:02 PM
That can't be good
I remember hearing here that the western part could strengthen more if it became dominant than the eastern part
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 02:05 PM
And Levi mentions it too
Gradually rising pressures as recon plane flies through the northeast side of #PTC9 suggests that there is not much of a dominant vort max there. Most of the focus is southwest. NE lobe will likely rotate around to more due north of the SW lobe tonight. Maybe get less elongat...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 02:53 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 03:05 PM
[#NerdTweet] Strong southerly east-side winds in #PTC9 are a contrast to the more WSW monsoon winds up to this point. This indicates the whole wave is about to rotate counterclockwise & become more oriented south-north tonight/tomorrow. Better chance for consolidation after t...
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159
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 03:43 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 03:43 PM
They have yet to find a wind shift. Maybe one where they turned east at but need more data
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 03:45 PM
new ships data favoring longer time table for intensification: SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 03:54 PM
to me it looks like the center should be out near 57.5 W, not where they are at. they are at the center of the two nodes of the wave. but it is favoring the west node.
they could be doing atmosphere sampling just to see how moist that incoming Southern air is
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 04:00 PM
I can side with Royce
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 04:45 PM
this thing is going to have an eye before they find out where the center is
(pretty much what happened with matthew)
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 28-Jul-20 04:46 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 04:56 PM
their location is still middle point between the two cloud masses. the western area looks like it has a decent thing going, maybe not closed but close. it's also got the most PWT around it
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 28-Jul-20 05:01 PM
Only at 40 mph and that wind field is a beast
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 05:22 PM
Recon seems to have encountered a slight shift in the winds, which could signal a possibly developing LLC. Minor for now, but something to watch as the mission continues. #PTC9
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 05:27 PM
they are done. heading out /w out much to show for a center. they missed by what appears to be a whole 2 degrees
HWRF went nuts this last run. near cat 3 near end run.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 05:31 PM
Near 40kt SFMRs during their exit
Yeah, they completely missed the probable developing LLC
Fractured data at the end, but extrapolated min pressure found is ~1006mb
Main SW vortmax may sport a ~3-5mb lower minimum pressure (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 05:36 PM
GFS 18z run guesses the LLC will for around 57W, due east of barbados @ 00 Z. that's about 1-1.5 degrees S and W of where they were looking
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 05:37 PM
Another recon scheduled for this evening so won’t be long until they are in again
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 05:38 PM
those rainfall totals for PR are no good, the last thing they need is a mini-maria
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 05:40 PM
I think the 1006 mb extrap is from there altitude change as they were finishing
It lines up exactly with it
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 06:11 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 06:43 PM
Levi posted in his video he thought that circulation is a mid level center that will move southwest and dissipate
He thinks a circulation will form ENE of their along with a secondary vorticity in the convection to the northeast and then start stacking (edited)
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 08:28 PM
Woah, that is a big reformation to the WSW of the 5PM estimated center for #PTC9 . At 5PM the center was estimated near 14.4N 55.9W - now it's almost 3 degrees west and .2 degrees south of the previous estimate
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 09:43 PM
That's not ideal, until this thing consolidates a center guidance is not going to be really good. #PTC9 #Isaias
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 09:51 PM
Called it
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 09:56 PM
Awkward
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 09:57 PM
Most recent ASCAT
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 09:59 PM
Good old asscat. Wonderful and often misleading
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 10:00 PM
It’s about all we got for analysis until recon in 3 ish hours
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 10:00 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 10:00 PM
Microwave has been useless so far
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 10:03 PM
Royce, would you say this is the more dominant vortmax currently?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 10:23 PM
based on mesoanalysis, the 850 fort max is right where you have it
buttt.. surfance convergence is way out west of barbados, and upper level divergence is back near the low
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 11:04 PM
Got the 5% chance of TS winds now
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 28-Jul-20 11:12 PM
They now have Nine peaking at 65mph prior to FL landfall
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 11:51 PM
Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.
Interesting tidbit on SHIPS noted by the NHC
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Jul-20 12:18 AM
So the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS could be lowballing it?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 12:30 AM
Potentially if it survives Hispaniola
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 12:48 AM
the weaker and smaller this is, the further south it should stay
teh further south it stays, the better chance it has to do stupid stuff once it comes out into the florida straights
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:03 AM
00z HWRF has this considerably south of Puerto Rico now (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:15 AM
if this goes south of hispanola we're boned
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 01:15 AM
Please elaborate
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:16 AM
hispanola has 13000 ft mountains and just trashes most tropical systems. a bath on the south side even narrowly will bring it into cuba, which is mostly low and doesnt' impact circulation much
could pop out potentially just SE of miami ready to buff up, or worse, on the W side of florida
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:18 AM
HWRF takes it directly over Hispaniola this run so wouldn’t consider that much of a possibility yet
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:18 AM
DR gonna take one for the team
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 01:18 AM
Wouldn't give the models much weight UNTIL there's a prominent low level circulation
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:20 AM
Recon is out there right now looking around
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:21 AM
RIPA and SHIPS both are trashing odds of RI, let's hope they are right
odds cut in half this last run
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 01:50 AM
Winds up to 45mph
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 02:11 AM
^40kt/1006mb, chances of formation at 90/90
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 05:42 AM
DMAX is closing in on PTC9
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 07:46 AM
Has that fanned out “look” to it. Surprised it’s not closed yet.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 08:02 AM
Well then
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:11 AM
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
RIPA over 40% now as well for 25/24. we could have a hurricane by tonight
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:12 AM
Hurricane by tonight? Seems like a stretch considering it is still open to the south.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:12 AM
matthew was the same way, there was no solid center for ages and then POOF it was nearly a hurricane when they found it
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:12 AM
Recon is having a hard time finding a center.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:13 AM
gotta treat is like a WPAC storm where they usually dont have HH obs, they gotta go off sat obs only
Co.ST models show the radius of max wind is finally contracting, still expecting formation today
looking at CI, it's nearly a 5. once a circulation forms it's ready to be a cat 1 or cat 2 almost right away
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:17 AM
We will see what kind of winds recon finds in the NE quadrant.
50-60 kt would be my guess.
Considering 45 kt was already found in the NW quadrant.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:45 AM
Recon going NW now? Thought they'd continue NE.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 29-Jul-20 09:46 AM
With the southerlies it’s clear there’s not much of note further NE
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 09:57 AM
First signs of a distinct wind shift (edited)
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 29-Jul-20 10:02 AM
👀
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:15 AM
Still really no sign of west winds with this yet
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 29-Jul-20 10:16 AM
So uh how far west is this supposed to be getting
This looks like it’s been angling west a bit
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 10:48 AM
center near 16N 63.5 W it appears
winds shift from due S to NE
still no 'zero' center wind area, so it's still very wave-live
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 10:53 AM
The more west the potential center gets the greater cause for concern.
A more westward formation is a more southern travelling storm in more favorable conditions and also more likely to miss the large islands and potentially end up in the gulf.
Anyone in the US along the the coast from Key West to NOLA should be watching this.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:02 PM
so this system is definately on the list of weirdest waves ive seen
a 40kt healthy wave /w 60kt gusts taht can't find a center for 3 days
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 29-Jul-20 01:07 PM
you can thank its forward speed for that
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 29-Jul-20 01:26 PM
Certainly don't envy forecasters, what a weird situation
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:30 PM
some ensembles takign this thign all the way to NOLA. that's crazyness
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 01:49 PM
Only 275 miles worth of TS winds from the center guys, no biggie (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:49 PM
10:53 AM AST A wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) has been reported at Cyril E. King Airport in Saint Thomas. | Una ráfaga de viento de 52 mph (84 km/h) ha sido reportada en el Aeropuerto Cyril E. King en San Thomas. #usviwx
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:04 PM
insert monty python flesh wound meme ITS JUST A WAVE
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 02:07 PM
I don’t understand how this doesn’t have a center yet. It’s got everything going for it but no center at all.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:09 PM
the vorticity maximum is displaced from the surface convergence
the high speed of the system has prevented vertical stacking
a slower system, like hanna, eventually meanders itself together
systems with multiple vorticity maxes typically join together quickly, due to v(rot) > v(x)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 02:12 PM
12z euro gets this to near hurricane strength over the Bahamas. Quite a north shift.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:12 PM
but v(x) is so freaking fast, that the other vortex can't catch up, and because its north it just hangs back into the shear
this storm is a master class in fluid dynamics, and we're all failing
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 02:22 PM
Lol , euro ended up with a coastal scraper
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:30 PM
HWRF has a landfall has a cat2 on NC cape., then it INTENSFIES TO CAT 4 off the coast of VA/MD. ??? LOL WHUT?
Yao 2
troll 2
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 29-Jul-20 02:32 PM
Yao troll
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:33 PM
hey, its 2020, weirder stuff has happened
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 02:34 PM
Actually a ton of agreement on track in the 12z model suite
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:39 PM
on a side note, WV imagery show almost no dry air at any level. uppers, mids are just juicy AF> and even low levels have very little dry air ahead
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Jul-20 02:40 PM
HWRF has a landfall has a cat2 on NC cape., then it INTENSFIES TO CAT 4 off the coast of VA/MD. ??? LOL WHUT?
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Sounds like Bob 1991 but stronger
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:52 PM
Time to Google Bob. Before my day
yeah those model runs predicting a bob/carol type storm today would be an issue for new england. cat2/cat3 landfalls have been very rare there the last 30 years
seems like something 'stronger than sandy' even a quick mover, would cause serious issues
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 03:02 PM
Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that #PTC9 is getting very close to having a closed circulation, even if it's still a broad one. Genesis of TS Isaias is likely not far off. Regardless of when this happens, tropical storm conditions likely in PR, USVI, and ...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 03:02 PM
GASPS A NW Wind!
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 03:12 PM
If hwrf is right and we get a worse than hurricane Bob in long Island. It think it's time to call it a year a just close the planet
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 04:08 PM
Curious about the accuracy of this ship observation near #PTC9. If verified, would indicate that the system is probably very close to being a TC with a closed circulation. We'll see if we get some other obs.
Potentially a west wind if the ship is verifiable
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:16 PM
#PTC9 is HUGE! Circulation will face some shear & potential mountainous islands (path dependant) next several days - if core reaches warm eastern Gulf SSTs it might have a 250 mb jet right entrance region to supercharge intensity: #Isaias
No, we're not doing this
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 04:18 PM
steering winds are almost due W or even WSW for the next 24 hours, this thing could totally bypass hispanola
well, the center could, at least
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:19 PM
Depending on timing if it gets into the GOM and uses the right entrance jet streak with its temporary advantage before shearing apart can allow it to try to RI
This LLC needs to form so we get a better idea how far south/north this thing really is and models can calibrate to that, splits between ensemble mean and all this junk is stressful because it's a shot in the dark
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 04:23 PM
opal was teh first really big hurricane of the satellite era i remebmer watching as a kid ont he weather channel. was too young for andrew
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:23 PM
However evidence of OBS showing a potentially close circulation may just be enough for us to get it named at 5PM
Opal was a potent system even up into places like Columbus/Fortson, where it provided 80 mph or so wind gusts
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 04:37 PM
barolinicly enhanced systems are no joke. opal, sandy are great examples.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 29-Jul-20 04:45 PM
Latest advisory holds it at a PTC still
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:47 PM
@antmasiello @JackSillin Yeah I'd actually argue that interaction w/ the terrain of Hispaniola is actually going to have the opposite effect on #PTC9 here given its size & intensity & will probably tighten the southern end of the wave envelope that's still open or nearly so a...
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 29-Jul-20 04:49 PM
My earliest memory I can put an accurate date to was hiding in the basement half the night while the tall pines around the house bent in Opal's inland gusts (edited)
Now that I'm older i would probably go meet it at mom's apartment 15 mins from the beach instead
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Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 29-Jul-20 04:50 PM
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:52 PM
TFW in cone
@antmasiello @TropicalTidbits @JackSillin #PTC9 could probably more than easily afford to lose some weight & cutoff basically half of its wave envelope, the interaction may be very favorable if anything in its current state.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 05:03 PM
hey look, alabama is in the cone. didnt even need a sharpie
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 05:03 PM
Of course, now I'm in the cone
Yao
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 05:17 PM
hurricane man is complaining about 9 not forming a center so he's gonna wait it out. if he keeps waiting, it might just put him in the cone at his house in pass christian, MS
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 29-Jul-20 05:20 PM
@TropicalTidbits @antmasiello @webberweather @JackSillin
wesmart 7
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 05:24 PM
big brain^
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 06:09 PM
center near 16N 66W? maybe? geeze
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 09:04 PM
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) What's your thoughts on models shifting
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:09 PM
@Cameron (Fortson, GA) i dont trust anythign ta this point
it looks half dead at this point. it was getting better earlier, now its falling part. hell it looks like it might split in half
RI tables and other intensity probs have dropped to near zero
BUST 2
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:26 PM
That’s just dmin taking its effect, wait for next dmax and see if it’s a TS by then.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Jul-20 09:26 PM
Jesus this system has been a clusterf*ck to forecast
I wouldn't be surprised if it just defies all models and barrels into the west Caribbean
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:29 PM
That’s what I’m thinking
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 09:33 PM
Looks like we continue the wait and see game for another 24 hours
invest 1
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:26 PM
Actually ATCF may have designated this as Isaias
If so, expect the 11pm to be Isaias also
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 10:38 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 10:48 PM
mesoanalysis shows a clear vortex on the S side, should be named soon...you'd think
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:49 PM
NHC names Tropical Storm Isaias
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 29-Jul-20 10:49 PM
there we go
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:50 PM
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED ees-ah-EE-ahs)...
ts 2
Yao 7
Lmao
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 29-Jul-20 10:50 PM
Yao
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 10:50 PM
Yao
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM
WUT
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM
65mph peak
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM
Pretty big cone shift back east
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 10:56 PM
the shear is red herring in bahamas. it should become a hurricane once it passes hispanola
the models aren't handling this well at all
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 29-Jul-20 10:59 PM
We pulling another Dorian, just TS-style?
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 11:02 PM
The scatterometer data show that the center of the system is south of the previously estimated track, so there is a lot of uncertainty in the initial motion estimate of 285/17 kt.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 11:04 PM
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) mainly to the northeast of the center.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 29-Jul-20 11:07 PM
Fasteyes
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 11:14 PM
HWRF nailed the position guys troll
troll 6
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-20 11:33 PM
Got a question
I dont follow up on Tropics a lot but Im going to intercept a Hurricane this fall, should I go down to NC for Isaias?
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 29-Jul-20 11:34 PM
too early to tell
i think by the end of the weekend youll have a better outlook on whether its worth the drive or not
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 12:07 AM
NHC put the pronunciation in their first tweet lol
Tropical Storm #Isaias Advisory 7: Disturbance Becomes Tropical Storm Isaias (Pronounced Ees-Ah-Ee-Ahs). https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
Retweets
616
Likes
843
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 12:44 AM
max forecast is up to 65mph. intensity creep happening already
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 01:18 AM
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.1 / 988.6mb/ 47.0kt
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-Jul-20 02:14 AM
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Jul-20 03:55 AM
Per latest ATCF/TT update, TS Isaias is up to 50kt
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Jul-20 04:02 AM
several hot towers next to the circulation
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 04:56 AM
They now have it riding up the US coast as a near Cat 1 Trop Storm
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 08:42 AM
The center moved north like 2 degrees overnight to under the cdo
Its already to the DR coast
It's just gonna brust the DR and come out into the Bahamas in no time. On the north side. This favors an east coast curve pattern
Official forecast up to 70mph max. Forecast creep here we go
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 30-Jul-20 08:51 AM
Intensity forecasts always are a burden
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 30-Jul-20 09:03 AM
Center will likely reform to the north of Hispaniola after interacting with the island
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Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 09:20 AM
2020ing
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 09:56 AM
Looks like it’s in the process of reforming now
Apparently weather station MDPC seen on the NE tip of DR is recording lower pressures than the fix
The pressure at MDBC at the tip of the Dominican Republic has sunk to a value lower than the first recon VDM, indicating the possible reformation northward near that location that may be in progress. We may be in a brief period of a poorly-defined center while this happens.
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Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 30-Jul-20 10:20 AM
Those winds are in the gap.
the Mona Passage
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 10:22 AM
For a better picture
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Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 30-Jul-20 10:27 AM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 10:32 AM
I believe what whoosh is referring to is that the Mona may locally enhance winds (edited)
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Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 30-Jul-20 10:39 AM
could be a coincidence
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 11:01 AM
From the NHC Discussion: 3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida later today. (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 11:36 AM
there isn't even a closed circulation anymore it appears, it's a 50kt wave again. GJ 2020
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Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 11:39 AM
wtf
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 11:42 AM
forecast models pretty much all agree, its a gonna be a typical cape hatteras / nantucket blaster
again, its 2020 don't trust anything in the models, but its the first sign of something normal
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 12:25 PM
cloud presentation is improving despite the islands. great outflow today. i expect him to intensify overnight and finally find a single center (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 01:37 PM
models favoring a large eyed storm, with huge wind area, doign a typical coastal landfall in NC somewhere. and jetting north. lots of erosion and some heavy rains. a great primer for a secondary storm (later in say, october) to do significantly more damage
the cloud outflow at this point looks like it's ready to jump to cat 1/2, not sitting over a hurricane kiling island. it's impressive how much moisture it's drawing in. looks like goku sucking in energy for a spirit bomb
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-20 01:45 PM
I was thinking about heading to Wilmington a day before landfall but idk
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Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 02:32 PM
That is 100% an eye
Wtf
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-20 02:35 PM
12z Euro
👀
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 30-Jul-20 03:00 PM
That's a Florence.
@Nick (Wilmington, NC)
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 03:17 PM
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 03:19 PM
Ugh no
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 03:30 PM
Looks like it's trying to form an eye
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 30-Jul-20 03:31 PM
Gonna be bad news for Haiti when those bands start raking over the mountains there
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 03:56 PM
Might be a mid level clearing, don’t think we have a surface center quite yet
Substantial pressure falls are occurring at many sfc stations over Hispaniola thanks to #Isaias. Santiago de los Caballeros & El Batey are reporting MSLP of 29.44" (997mb) & 29.5" (999mb) respectively. Current @NHC_Atlantic advisory pegs #Isaias at 1003mb; #Isaias is intensif...
997 mb report (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 04:11 PM
the vort max is finally stacked top to bottom, it shoudl find a central circulation again soon
we might have ourselves a very lopsided storm due to all the shear from the SW
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 04:21 PM
How would the storm be lopsided if the vort Max is stacked from top to bottom? If it were sheared...the vort would be tilted, yes?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 04:30 PM
not necessarily. the convection will be lopsided as its blown away from the center. douglas, for example. is still rotation at teh surface and aloft roughly at this same location, but the cloud pattern is quit well away
tilted, yes, but in the case of this storm, when it was, 9, the surface rotation was not remotely close to the mid level vort, and wasn't tilted or anything, it was just disconnected
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 04:32 PM
Gotcha. Thanks.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 04:34 PM
waves during their phase change into a cyclone have a lot of vorticity fluid dynamics crap going on, stuff that's way crazier than we did back in dynamic meteorology. stuff we don't even fully understand yet. it's far more complex than tornado-genesis, and that is still a mystery in itself
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 05:35 PM
forecast up to 75, the creep continues
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 06:50 PM
Explosive convection rn
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 06:53 PM
A n00b question here, but would a deeper storm tend to feel the ridge easier or the incoming trof?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 06:59 PM
I believe the trof.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 07:00 PM
That’s what I thought but I wanted to ask
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 07:00 PM
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be interpreted as such. Wh...
Levi explains it better than I could ever lol
this 2
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 07:08 PM
Lol he and Mark Sudduth are really good.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 07:44 PM
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas.
Got our first hurricane warnings issued
this 6
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 07:49 PM
Wonder if we’ll see hurricane watches for the East coast of Florida at 11 pm.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 30-Jul-20 07:54 PM
Depends on how the wind field forms as it approaches Florida
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 08:10 PM
After a delay, recon taking off momentarily
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 09:56 PM
After even a further delay, they are in the air
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 30-Jul-20 11:11 PM
Coastal FL under trop storm watch, no hurricane watches yet
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:12 PM
Recon about to the supposed center. Already have 50 knot SFMRs
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 30-Jul-20 11:25 PM
88 kt flight-level, 65 kt unflagged SFMR,
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:27 PM
Yeah this may be a hurricane (edited)
Very good evidence for an update statement
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 11:28 PM
That's a hurricane, son
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Jul-20 11:30 PM
Yeah, when you have ~90kt FL winds, you just about have hurricane force sustained winds at the surface
Hank
Hank 2
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 11:32 PM
Well... that escalated quickly.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:41 PM
We have a hurricane per NHC
80 mph
Special update statement
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 11:42 PM
No shit
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS ISAIAS IS A HURRICANE.
backup 4
category1 5
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM
Who could've guessed?
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM
Special advisory will be issued shortly by the NHC
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM
Well that was unexpected
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM
Damn this boy is popping off
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 30-Jul-20 11:45 PM
Here's the full update
NHC website officially updated; Isaias is a hurricane
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-Jul-20 11:46 PM
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 11:47 PM
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 30-Jul-20 11:48 PM
@webberweather @AndyHazelton @Wxmanms1 Yeah now that we are seeing the true intensity of #Isaias for the first time (the mesovortex was never sampled this morning), it seems likely the mesovortex made it down to the sfc a while ago & we've been underestimating the intensity o...
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 11:52 PM
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 11:57 PM
We need a channel name update in here
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-Jul-20 11:58 PM
#Isaias strengthened into a hurricane despite sitting not far from 40 knots of wind shear AND land interaction from Hispaniola. Only in 2020, you may ask?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:00 AM
How much of that shear shown is just from the outflow of Isaias though (edited)
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Jul-20 12:02 AM
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 31-Jul-20 12:02 AM
May as well throw any recent model runs out for intensity at this point
this 4
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:06 AM
Behold hwrf, the one true prophet.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:06 AM
Look at this wind field
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:08 AM
It's 15 degrees from top to bottom. The wind field is the size of something in the north Atlantic or wpac.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 31-Jul-20 12:16 AM
The IKE on this thing is going to be incredible
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:17 AM
A purple barb wayyyy out there
Hank 6
That’s probably almost 200 miles from the center (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:27 AM
Recon turned south before reaching the edge it seems. Probably likely due to the land they were approaching
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Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 31-Jul-20 12:40 AM
@NHC_Atlantic Here we go again w/ the hyped up reports. Remember when hurricanes looked like hurricanes? Been a minute. They've been hyping for years. #Hurricanes4Profit #HurricaneIsaias #Isaias #NHC #ClimateChange #Globalwarming #SCAMS! #Trump #KAG #MAGA #WalkAway @realDon...
Weenie 3
Sad
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 31-Jul-20 12:42 AM
Wow.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 12:50 AM
Shoo, keep it to #bad-stuff-man
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 31-Jul-20 12:59 AM
I will update the rest when I finish driving in 4 hours (on break now) but the title is updated
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 31-Jul-20 01:32 AM
In just one single recon, #Isaias's minimum central pressure has fallen several millibars w/ extrapolated SLP now approaching 990mb >>> #Isaias is beginning to quickly intensify. The hot tower in #Isaias's upshear-left quadrant is apparently already having a big impact. Yikes...
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 03:13 AM
HWRF is putting it into Florida now, but it is underdoing intensity so I'd take it with a grain of salt.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 05:26 AM
100mph peak now
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 08:37 AM
Hot towers in upshear quad is a dead giveaway of RI. Which ships had less than 20% odds of yesterday
This guy is breaking all the rules even for 2020
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 08:47 AM
He's under some heavy shear right now. Appears to be hurt him a bit. But that should relax in 12-24 hours
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Jul-20 08:55 AM
cat 1 isaias
yes
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 09:31 AM
looking ugly this morning. dry air and shear likely hurting the storm alot. ug-ly
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 09:53 AM
Yeah not looking healthy at all
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 31-Jul-20 10:00 AM
Not looking too hot, although that new CB is packing some solid SFC winds
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Jul-20 10:57 AM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the Volusia-Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. (edited)
Looks like the track of the storm for this advisory package shifted west...closer to the EURO and HMON models.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 11:06 AM
radar data from the aircraft and the Bahamas radar indicate about a 60-percent eyewall has formed in the northeastern semicircle, which is an indication that the cyclone is trying to reorganize. As a result, strengthening is still expected during the next day or so,
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 11:36 AM
KE vs intensity map shows its weakened to a TS
BUT, its clearly going to have some time to grow tonight as shear weakens
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 31-Jul-20 12:38 PM
possible to undergo RI again
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:43 PM
very intense storms near the eyewall, rotating around rapidly. shear and dry air holding back what would have been a clear RI phase. shear will abate in about 12 hours. we could see RI right before nears florida. however RI models are not favorable rigth now
if he can get those hot towers to rotation around to NW then W side, i would expect RI to be possible again
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:49 PM
We have about a half eyewall currently looking at Bahamas radar
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:53 PM
the wind field is shrinkign rapidly and the convection as well, storm is about 1/2 the width it was 48 hours ago. this will help it survive the shear and organize despite the shear
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 01:24 PM
TPW imagery looks really good still. high water values still surround the south side of the eye for some dinstance. shear is only at the upper levels and there is plenty of room to grow and dry air infiltration is limited
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 31-Jul-20 01:41 PM
Family and friends have been sharing with me this pictures of the southwest area of the island. Electric poles are down and places than never experience flooding are flooded now. #Isaias #puertorico @adamonzon @iCyclone @JimCantore @weatherchannel @NickMerianos
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Jul-20 02:45 PM
ATCF back to 70 kts
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Jul-20 02:49 PM
large convective burst accompanied by lightning in Isaias' developing eyewall
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 31-Jul-20 02:58 PM
Our first of several Special Balloon Soundings is in the air. We along with all the other Upper Air Eastern Region offices are launching Special 6 hour Weather Balloons to support forecasting Hurricane #Isaias. Balloons will be launched for 06z/12z/18z/00z. #MEwx
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 31-Jul-20 02:59 PM
Not a good trend
Hank 2
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Jul-20 03:02 PM
Interesting
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 03:02 PM
I’m seeing 65 knots from ATCF yet at 18z
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Jul-20 03:02 PM
I could feel some impacts here
This could be my third "right place, right time" tropical system intercept of this year
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 31-Jul-20 03:03 PM
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Jul-20 03:38 PM
The wind radius is... interesting to say the least troll
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 03:39 PM
Aw, I love you too Isaias
It's a cardiod. That's neat.
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 31-Jul-20 03:42 PM
It's a cardiod. That's neat.
@Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) glad I’m not the only one that noticed that
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 04:02 PM
Had to dig into my memory of polar equations lol
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 05:07 PM
A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for portions of the Florida east coast. Here are the 5 PM EDT Key Messages for #Isaias https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 05:54 PM
985 last pass?
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 31-Jul-20 05:57 PM
yup
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Jul-20 06:34 PM
Looks like Isaias' eyewall is about to close completely
If not already
hot tower yet again in Isaias' eyewall
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 06:39 PM
This thing is getting ready to explode.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 07:06 PM
Two recons approaching the NW eye
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 07:20 PM
Two? Why two?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 07:28 PM
Still 985
70kts unflagged
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 07:39 PM
Are the different recons flying at different levels? NOAA3 picked up much lower winds than AF305 in the SE quadrant. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 09:44 PM
Geez that is a wiiiiiiiiiiiiide radius.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 09:52 PM
Some strong convection and lightning
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 09:54 PM
The lightning is far removed from the center, however.
this 4
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Jul-20 10:28 PM
Any recon in the storm now?
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 31-Jul-20 10:44 PM
Still one plane bouncing around in there
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 31-Jul-20 10:45 PM
yep and this is gonna hit Fla
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 31-Jul-20 10:49 PM
At least Florida just gets the weak side
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 11:00 PM
We'll see if that holds true.
Nearly due west jog
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 01:35 AM
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 973.6mb/ 77.0kt
Satcon agrees with Dvorak. This is a cat 2 on paper
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 02:58 AM
77 kt is not Cat 2 though?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 04:10 AM
That northern eyewall is strong just that it needs to close up.
For some reason it's going half-a-cane at an abnormally low latitude.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 01-Aug-20 10:41 AM
It's going to have the persistent shear to deal with all the way up most of Florida
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 10:58 AM
This shear is crushing our boy today. That eye is nearly exposed
PressF 2
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 01-Aug-20 11:07 AM
Hurricane #Isaias Advisory 18: Isaias Making Landfall On Northern Andros Island. Expected to Approach the Southeast Coast of Florida Later Today And Sunday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 01-Aug-20 11:12 AM
Down to 80mph
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 12:31 PM
Looks like 💩
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 01-Aug-20 12:43 PM
Pretty distinct low level, but yeah, not great looking
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-Aug-20 12:58 PM
Hasn't been great looking since PR.
this 2
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 01-Aug-20 01:41 PM
75 MPH at 2 PM Advisory
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 78.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 03:31 PM
Center is at that black dot
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 05:46 PM
Isaias downgraded to a TS, brief reintensification back into a hurricane is expected
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:01 PM
Sudden convective burst
Shear is clearly weakening. And OHC here is huge
Water vapor looks amazing still. He's got potential
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:03 PM
Shear is clearly weakening. And OHC here is huge
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) True, since you have a creeping strong anticyclone inching forward towards the NNW (or mostly due N) towards Isaias; it'll become also influenced by it's trek over the Gulf Steam and it's 29-30C+ SSTs
Convective burst won't let up either
LOTS of lightning associated with it as well
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:09 PM
Do not let gaurd down. Climatology says this guy could still RI to a cat 4 before landfall if shear agrees. And it looks like it could
troll 6
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:10 PM
To a CAT4?
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 06:11 PM
That would truly be 2020ing
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 01-Aug-20 06:12 PM
If this thing goes to CAT 4 I'm gonna need a drink...
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:13 PM
If I see 115kt on a NHC advisory, then I'll have to take a shot.... of milk
But you get my drift
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:15 PM
Two words: hurricane bob
Borderline cat 1 to cat 4 in 36 hours thanks to boost from the jet stream
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:16 PM
What was VWS like with Hurricane Bob during it's RI episode?
Also, I thought Bob only peaked at 100kt
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:17 PM
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bob. Winds only rated at cat 3. But pressure was cat 4 worthy. Same with dvorak
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 01-Aug-20 06:46 PM
I think it's already a Cane again
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 06:51 PM
Inner ring closed up on radar.
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 01-Aug-20 06:57 PM
No way it goes to Cat 4
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 07:01 PM
convection via convective burst has completely obscured the low level circulation
large amount of lightning is still present near the aforementioned center
Reminder: This is before
This is after/current
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 07:03 PM
lmao this is not becoming cat 4, maybe cat 2, yes, 3 by a long shot, but not 4.
It’s rapid reorganization is impressive though.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 07:04 PM
May hit Bimini
Isaias may be a hurricane again
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 07:06 PM
Probably is.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 07:14 PM
Northern eyewall looking better developed on radar now, if it can just wrap around again it might have a shot at RI
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 07:56 PM
lightning is still going strong
145 minutes for this <-70C central overcast to expand ~40,000km^2
Hank 6
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 08:29 PM
Still going strong with the lightning
LLC and MLC may be attempting to align at this time*
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 08:57 PM
Convective burst now fanning out. Great divergence aloft and high pressure
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 01-Aug-20 08:57 PM
isaias is a ts now
it died (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 08:57 PM
Best case scenario is it hits Florida with a glace to keep it weak
Satcon and adt lagging a couple hours behind. They will say it's a hurricane soon. We'll see what the next mission brings
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 01-Aug-20 09:01 PM
994 mb
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 09:03 PM
Pressure and winds will lag convection by 3-6 hours. We likely have hurricane again by 06z
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 01-Aug-20 09:04 PM
@Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) still a lot of dry air thru the profile
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 01-Aug-20 09:13 PM
Yup
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 01:41 AM
Towers continue. He's not dead yet
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 01:54 AM
What are the chances of a CAT1-2+ hurricane past east central FL?
If Isaias can take advantage of the general decrease in VWS via anticyclonic influence, gulf stream interactions, and with the jet streak up past GA?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 05:31 AM
NHC is no longer calling for it to rereach hurricane strength
It actually weakened again
All that convection did nothing for it because of all the shear
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 07:36 AM
Well, this is the most intense convective burst that ive seen associated with Isaias in a while
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 02-Aug-20 07:47 AM
The way this storm has been acting, I dont know if I should expect any surprises from it
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 08:50 AM
Looks like she’s still vertically tilted
Lowest pressure is 979 tho
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 02-Aug-20 09:19 AM
This morning's recon mission into #Isaias finds that this storm is undergoing major structural reorganization, with #Isaias's low-level center attempting to reform downshear (NE) just east of Grand Bahama Island underneath the deep convective burst offshore SE Florida.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 02-Aug-20 09:32 AM
While the environment for #Isaias remains pretty unfavorable atm, conditions are a bit more conducive for intensification today vs yesterday. While the shear will remain strong, #Isaias will be moving more // to the shear vector (SW-NE) & the air SW of #Isaias is less dry. ht...
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 02-Aug-20 11:31 AM
A buoy 34 nm from the center of the storm is recording sustained winds of 40 kt and gusts up to 48 kt.
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 11:36 AM
NOAA reconnaissance continues into Tropical Storm Isaias. Measurements suggest that mid-level vertical wind shear has forced Isaias’ vortex to tilt with height, limiting potential intensification of the hurricane and exposing its core to dry air. https://t.co/6EsnPFhUAN
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 12:59 PM
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 01:19 PM
A combo of @53rdWRS & radar observations critical in observing #Isaias this afternoon. Recon 850-hPa fix shows center still SW of mid-level vortex. However, separation has decreased & recon also found 63kt SFMR winds in the NW quad, suggesting intensification despite shear. ...
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 01:26 PM
Recon measured a 62 kt wind at the surface with a dropsonde. #Isaías is making a push toward hurricane status again.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 02-Aug-20 02:29 PM
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Holly Pajak (London, Ontario) 02-Aug-20 02:41 PM
Stumbled upon this gem
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 02-Aug-20 03:10 PM
No Cantore for this one?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 04:00 PM
TEAL 75 went through the center of Tropical Storm #Isaías. No significant changes. Extrapolated pressure was 994.5 hPa with SFMR surface winds of 57 kt. Peak flight level winds were 67 kt, which would approximately reduce to 54 kt. Waiting from dropsondes and vortex message...
Yeah it's not gonna rereach hurricane
It's gonna just move into a less and less favorable environment
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 02-Aug-20 04:10 PM
Pretty much every model has some restrengthening as it turns towards the Carolinas
Not too much of a stretch
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 04:18 PM
@NCWeatherhound The Gulf Stream is obviously warm but the jet streak to the north of #Isaias will be ventilating it pretty efficiently in the last 12-18 hrs before it reaches NC & the shear will decrease, perhaps leading to a period of significant intensification right as it ...
@Garrett (Hillsdale MI) In the last day or so before landfall, it should become more favorable
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 02-Aug-20 04:57 PM
I don't know
I see the storm progress but it falls on itself everytime it tries to do something
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 02-Aug-20 05:23 PM
Hurricane watches up here now
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 05:32 PM
Isaias seems to be holding it's know quite well
Deep convection is attempting to obscure the LLC
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 05:54 PM
Down to 991
It's trying
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 02-Aug-20 05:54 PM
👀
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 06:21 PM
Lookin healthier
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 06:27 PM
Close to a hurricane again. Do not be surprised if the eye gets wrapped again once shear lines up with motion
The OHC is sti very warm all the way to NC. Cat 2 is possible even as a lopsided freak
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 06:29 PM
May become less lopsided as it treks more NNE towards SC/NC border
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 06:30 PM
Recon is about to see if there's a full eye in a second
987! (edited)
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 06:46 PM
Nevermind lol
Recon is messed up
It just got a 979 reading
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 06:49 PM
Probably between 985-991mb
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 07:16 PM
dropsonde would support 993mb
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 07:37 PM
2 new hot towers closer to the center (edited)
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 08:19 PM
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be interpreted as such. Wh...
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 08:56 PM
Recon finding hurricane force winds
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 09:26 PM
#nerdtweet Recent microwave imagery passes over TS #isaias Show a more well-defined banding structure this evening with hints Of what could be a mid level eye like structure. This is pretty coherent With radar and aircraft reconnaissance observations.
several hot towers rotating upshear with 2 attempts at banding
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Aug-20 09:38 PM
Isaias: the storm that just won’t quit.
And won’t give up.
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 02-Aug-20 09:47 PM
cantore2 8
Oh shit Jim is here folks
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:07 PM
CIMSS shear forecast favorable (but not very favorable for the next 24 hours)
meaning - based on shear alone it should drop 4-12 mb int he next 24 hours
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 11:11 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:11 PM
the kinetic energy models actually have its at its strongest yet, 1/2 way to a cat 2 (based only on KE)
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 11:14 PM
@Cameron (Fortson, GA) Would you favor that center relocation has occurred or the LLC and MLC have finally aligned?
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 11:15 PM
new microwave
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:16 PM
under high velocity shear and dry air intrusion, much more likely it relocated than aligned
if you look at the PWET maps, the low level circulation is over vero beach right now
storms finaly making it to the NW quad. looks like an eye is trying to reform, finally
if we're all biting our nails and watching the storm this closely when its a strong ts / cat 1, what is the hype going to be like when we have a legit monster on our hands? not just some freak storm that wont' die? cough hanna
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 11:28 PM
Recon had a 63 kt surface reading
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:37 PM
dry air turns isaias into a newt isaias: IT GOT BETTER
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 02-Aug-20 11:41 PM
Center relocation in real time
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John Day (IA) 03-Aug-20 02:08 AM
models are showing favorable shear profiles for supercells / tors as the storm makes landfall
North central NC Monday night
hwrf develops an intense rain band and what looks to be embedded sups in that area
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:06 AM
...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA...
backup 8
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 03-Aug-20 07:44 AM
This is not just a mid-level radar feature. In their last fix at 0430 UTC before flying home @53rdWRS also confirmed an eyewall was developing with #Isaias (albeit open to the southeast).
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:50 AM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 09:07 AM
but geeze. so much dry air infiltration into the eye its gross. all the moisture is 50+miles outside the core
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Max (Saint John, NB) 03-Aug-20 09:21 AM
isaias is a fucking trooper
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:46 AM
This morning's recon mission into #Isaias finds it has weakened considerably overnight, the estimated central pressure is up to ~1001mb. #Isaias also looks very ragged on IR, likely ingested some dry air into its core. Certainly good news for the Carolinas. #ncwx #scwx
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 11:46 AM
Whut?
"Weakened considerably?"
Looks worse for sure but doubt it weakened that much. Pressure was dropping a millibar a pass down to 994 earlier. (edited)
Not sure if this is trustworthy.
NHC put it at 998 with winds still at 60 kts which seems correct to me, probably that the system's structure is so scattered recon has a hard time finding the "true" maximums
The fact the storm is this strong while being constantly ripped apart and scattered around should be considered such a feat that it is worthy of intense study. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 12:09 PM
NHC calling for it to go Cat 1 right before landfall, and did say they expect another convective burst to happen soon to push it back up there. There is this string of hot towers popping up and if they hold they could be the start of it
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Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 03-Aug-20 12:31 PM
indeed
the system is due for another re-organization phase shortly if it holds true to form. That may already be underway based on recent radar and recon data showing a slight eastward shift in the center position.
90 minutes ago
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 12:58 PM
It's holding well.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 01:13 PM
Seems like another ongoing CB is occuring now
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 01:25 PM
yeah radar looked like the center hopped a couple hours ago.
it's slowly hopping toward the convection every few hours
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 01:52 PM
#Isaias’s presentation on radar is improving dramatically with a mid level eye feature starting to become evident on the Charleston, SC radar, corroborating recent recon measurements of intensification (yet again). I swear, this storm is so bi-polar #ncwx #scwx https://t.c...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 01:53 PM
its the big storm that couldn't
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 02:22 PM
hunters just had a (bad) wind reading of 120 kts. very bad i guess
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 02:48 PM
i think one thing we're forgetting is that due to the speed of this guy, along with the constructive shear vector, it will likely maintain strong TS force winds all the way to canada, through all the major east coast metros. DC, philly, NYC, boston could all get major wind damage and flash floods
8-12" of rain and then some 60mph gusts will knock out alot of power and down trees
this is gonna be like a 2 day derecho from hell
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:18 PM
Wasn't Nate also kinda the same? Where it was disorganized but hurricane-strength due to it's forward speed and it's effects were more akin to a derecho?
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:29 PM
Got a random sounding out of Long Island when Isaias is coming through, and WOW.
pds 2
All I can say there is WOW
HWRF sim reflectivity around the same time
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:30 PM
Is that a tropical system or a freaking high CAPE supercell-in-front-of-derecho setup?
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:30 PM
leaning towards the last one
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:32 PM
Tornadoes are going to be a huge impact with this one, might end up being the biggest tornado outbreak the NE region has seen if it's entire outer squall ends up being supes
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 03:36 PM
And also, it might not.
Models havent exactly 100% agreed so far
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:37 PM
Hence why I said "might"
The 12z HWRF isn't as supercell happy, that one image is from 06z (edited)
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:41 PM
Both the 12z and 18z HRRR show a line of supercells on that band, but to be fair it's also the HRRR
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 03:41 PM
as this transitions from a tropical system to extratropical, HRRR and NAM are now our friends
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:41 PM
Here's a few frames later
NAM3KM shows a similar situation, but looks much weaker on the outer bands, and more messy
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 03:42 PM
the first 120 degrees of the storm (north to ESE of the center) are the most dangerous for tornado setups. this one will likely be one of those. the jet will couple /w the storms and help create numerous mini-supers within the bands
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 03:49 PM
Yeesh
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:49 PM
Seems to be reorganizing and is also getting that "east coaster" look
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:50 PM
HRW ARW seems on board with the HRRR
ARW sounding over long island an hour before the band hits
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 03:51 PM
Wow
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:51 PM
NSSL sounding from almost the same location
HRRR sounding, slightly east, on the eastern tip of long island at the same time as the rest
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:54 PM
The whole storm acting with the jet and the mountainous terrain in the NE is really gonna spin up some tors. That jet is roaring today, Mt Washington is recording 70-75 mph gusts.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 03:55 PM
The locally infamous KLTX-Wilmington Doppler Radar blockage is about to gain even more notoriety as the core of #Isaias moves right into it. A stand of tall trees make it tough for KLTX to fully scan storms near the Grand Strand. Ongoing problem...
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 04:00 PM
Gannon is the man
And he is spot on about LTX
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 04:08 PM
En route to KLTX with a chainsaw, ready to down some trees
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 04:10 PM
Right off highway 17 near Shallotte
Let's hope they keep coms with the radar, that also is a common issue.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 04:10 PM
iirc that was an issue with Florence Yao
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 04:42 PM
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and South Carolina until 2 AM EDT
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:39 PM
No pictures with Jim due to Covid
Super lame
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
LOL! Whatever....
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
They had a cop stopping people e
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
whut?
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
Thanks China
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
No kidding!
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
Yeah fuckin retarded
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
Yeah thanks
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM
But makes sense
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:41 PM
waves are certainly picking up.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
Gonna be a long night.
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
Got the gen gassed up
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
That's good.
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
I purchased a house literally two weeks ago lol
Yao 1
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
Your guys' take on the tornado risk with Iasias?
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM
All the towers ready to go?
LOL omg
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:43 PM
Yes sir gassed up and ready at all transmitters. All stations should stay on the air
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:43 PM
Just like what's his name who bought a house ont he beach or condo was it and Florence hit?
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:44 PM
Yeah my buddy Johnny just got a boat lol
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:44 PM
lol lol
oh man you knew doing this at this time just paints a target on you.
lol
Really, I'm so sorry.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 05:56 PM
Your guys' take on the tornado risk with Iasias?
@Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) I'm liking it. 5% across the entire eastern seaboard tonight into tomorrow. Good moisture, good shear, jet stream is gonna be helping a lot. CAMS produce a lot of potential tors over new england
this 3
if conditions set up right, it could be worth a 10% today from NJ coast up to mass. will depend alot on how the bands setup over the ocean and roll onshore
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 05:59 PM
it would not be surprising then to see multiple tornado watches come in the next day or so along the East Coast
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:00 PM
we already got one in NC. they will be up all night long i bet. there is no stable layer during a hurricane, so tors can occur overnight
this 1
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 06:00 PM
easier to detect too with the Dual-Pol aspect
I would think
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:01 PM
the meso-vorticies are much smaller than normal super cells, so even with dual pol they can be hard to spot, but spotting has improved
this 1
when cristobol came onshore, there was a short period were like 20 tornado warnigns had to go up, because it timed with daytime heating so perfectly. however only a few tornadoes came otu of him
strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20%* -NHC
this 1
gusts well above hurricane force will be possible well into the northeast coast
new convection close to the eye is firing, if eye reconstruction is done, we could see a final burst of intensification right before landfall, as NHC suggsted
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 06:20 PM
How does it look for me here in York
I haven't had the chance to look at models yet
Shrimpfest imminent
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 06:26 PM
As others have noted, the center of #Isaias is passing directly over a buoy just offshore the SC coast. Surface pressure at this buoy (~991mb) is already lower than the most recent NHC advisory & it's still rapidly falling; #Isaias is likely a hurricane. #ncwx #scwx https://...
this 3
I agree with Webb 100%
Pressure at buoy #41004 is still falling
getting ready to drip below 990mb
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 06:30 PM
Gonna have to change the axis soon
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 06:44 PM
Impressive band moving north towards Wilmington NC
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 06:54 PM
41004 now at 988.8
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:54 PM
How does it look for me here in York
@Hunter Hollman (York, PA) York is very vulnerable to flash flooding. 8-12" in 24 hours is a bad deal
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 06:55 PM
8-12" is what we'll be seeing?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:56 PM
Models call for 6-10 but based on climatology I'm well aware of how those mountains can boost rainfall
Don't be shocked if some little mountain town in eastern PA gets wrecked by 12"
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 06:56 PM
Yikes
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:57 PM
Total water levels are very high for this storm. And since it's still August ambient moisture is very high
If this was an October storm you'd have a lot of cold air over Western PA
Carol, Agnes come to mind. So definitely be careful in the mountains
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 07:00 PM
I'll be sure to keep a close eye on any flooding
Thanks for the info
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:14 PM
The show isn't over yet guys. Ships model sti gave this a 16% chance of cat 2 landfall last run
So at the least we'll have something comparable to Hanna
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 07:16 PM
min. pressure measured from buoy 41004 has a ~989mb pressure w/ a ~30kt wind
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 07:19 PM
Wind gust to 67 mph reported recently at the Weatherflow station in Winyah Bay just east of Georgetown, SC #scwx
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 07:23 PM
70kt SFMR, ~986mb extrapolated
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:23 PM
As nhc said. Expect gusts to be a full category higher than normal due to coupling with jet stream. Will happen in squalls due to best down mix
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 07:26 PM
It's a cane again definitely
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 07:26 PM
The current structure on IR is already indicative of baroclinic forcing
Giving that pre-landfall boost the NHC's been talking up
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:30 PM
Baroclinic forcing is not a new idea, but with Hanna and isi both having it, it's totally the new 2020 catchphrase
It's so nice for severe weather meteorology to overlap with tropical met.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 07:31 PM
2019 Humberto was baroclinic forcing to the max
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:32 PM
It's been pretty uncommon until recent. I wonder if it was just better forecasting or climate change
For example, would major storms like hurricane bob be a baroclinic nightmare if we forecasted him today?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 07:42 PM
Per recon vortex, eye is open from the SE to the E. Also 37 miles in diameter
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 07:45 PM
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 69kts (79.4mph
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:48 PM
We have got a cane
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM
Yup, 65kt/988mb
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM
It's had 80+ kts at 10000 feet for some time now. Not surprised to see it mix down
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM
The update while this met was on the air, he was like "woah what happened"
lol
Tornado Warning including Oak Island NC, Boiling Spring Lakes NC, Saint James NC until 8:15 PM EDT
First nader up as well
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:50 PM
category1
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:57 PM
Tornado on the ground
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:02 PM
Whats the record for tropical storm based tors? 136? Could be a busy two days
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 08:04 PM
Looks like Ivan with 120?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:04 PM
I see Ivan at 117 so sure
This is a spot on setup for hurricane based tors. Ivan's tors killed 7 people. No joke
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 08:07 PM
The line of shrimp HRRR consistently shows has me a little scared
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:09 PM
new tornado watch forthcoming
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 08:09 PM
ugh
Holy warning batman
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:13 PM
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:38 PM
Current radar of Isaias.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 08:41 PM
The locally infamous KLTX-Wilmington Doppler Radar blockage is about to gain even more notoriety as the core of #Isaias moves right into it. A stand of tall trees make it tough for KLTX to fully scan storms near the Grand Strand. Ongoing problem...
^ worth noting
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:42 PM
yes
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 08:42 PM
Thank god for the environmentalists that won't let NWS cut the trees
IDK how I would live without a fuckin tree
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:47 PM
ilmchat 2020/08/03 8:13 PM iembot Bald Head Island [Brunswick Co, NC] 911 CALL CENTER reports TORNADO at 3 Aug, 7:55 PM EDT -- REPORT RELAYED BY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER. NO OTHER DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 08:48 PM
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina until 6 AM EDT
60/20 TOA
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Aug-20 08:49 PM
I like how that word looks in all caps.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 08:53 PM
Just below 120kt FL wind
~75kt peak SFMR
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 08:54 PM
It was 117
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM
Here's the latest on #Isaias #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #obx
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM
Recon finding flight level winds of nearly 120 knots with SFMR of 75 knots (85 mph) in #Isaias Boy this is escalating quickly.... #ncwx #scwx
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias. SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Hank 4
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM
Jesus 140 MPH flight level, thats nuts
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM
wow
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM
How you holding up Nick?
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM
Chillin
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM
Pretty sure there was a CC drop with that TOR warning in your city though
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM
Yes sir
Got my battlestation up and running
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 09:01 PM
Same here, except replace that stream of WWAY with WECT Yao
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:01 PM
I have ECT on in the livingroom
We carry WWAY on the radio station I work for so I must watch......
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:01 PM
Isaias is gonna be a rough ride for the Eastcoast
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:02 PM
85MPH winds according to NHC
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:02 PM
We are almost done with it.
Here that is
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 03-Aug-20 09:02 PM
What's the record for furthest south a sting jet has ever been observed? #AskingForAnIsaias
Perhaps there's a Sting jet that's the cause behind the super strong winds
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:03 PM
At 7:55 PM EDT, 1 ESE Bald Head Island [Brunswick Co, NC] SOCIAL MEDIA reports TORNADO. APPARENT TORNADO DAMAGE REPORT FROM A SKYWARN SPOTTER OF A ROOF TORN OFF OF A HOUSE OFF OF DOGWOOD RIDGE ROAD IN BALD HEAD ISLAND, NC.
Hank 2
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 09:04 PM
Sounds like a siggy
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:05 PM
The Wilmington, NC radar is picking up on winds of 120 mph ~4000ft off the surface in the NE quad of #Isaias. Standard reduction would put this somewhere in the ballpark of 75-80 knots (85-90 mph), an upper end category 1 hurricane. #Isaias is intensifying in a hurry. #ncwx
Hank 5
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:09 PM
Yes you can see it on radar and sat. It's getting ti's act together.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 09:13 PM
i fuckin told yall
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:14 PM
87 MPH at Frying pan
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:15 PM
Literally played with us for 4 days then at the last few hours before landfall he hit the button
troll 3
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:15 PM
I knew this was gonna happen
I just felt it lmao (edited)
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 09:17 PM
troll
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:18 PM
East eyewall dropsonde
Those winds are very close to the surface.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:19 PM
Garden City SC going underwater. Nothing new to that. Same thing happened in Dorian. I was there for that.
I bet it's high tide or coming up to it.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:25 PM
Buoy 41013 at 42 knots sustained gusting to 54 kts
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:26 PM
93 gust at frying pan
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:26 PM
woah getting up there.
Storm surge from #hurricaneIsaias coming up to houses and into parking lots in Garden City, SC. @weatherchannel @NWSWilmingtonNC #scwx https://t.co/GrnImTsJE3
Possible tornado damage in Garden City Beach from Shawn Maltba. #scwx #isaias @jamiearnoldWMBF
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:30 PM
A swath of ferocious winds possibly gusting over 100 mph (purple colors) is nearing Wilmington, NC and the coastline surrounding Cape Fear very quickly. Do not be outside. https://t.co/88bbJhMHMg
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:30 PM
9:20 pm. We seem to be near center of #Hurricane #ISAIAS's broad center in North #MyrtleBeach. Wind not too bad, but storm surge covering beach & piers, & inundating S Ocean Blvd. https://t.co/mtgLA5jt07
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:33 PM
Springmaid Pier tidal gauge near Myrtle Beach now up to 4.58 feet MHHW with more than 4 foot of surge above expected astronomical tide. NWS ILM notes it is at 3rd highest level observed on record. #Isaias
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:41 PM
Raliegh never had one as far as I know today.
this 3
I'd say bad report.
Besides that it's nightime there now.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:44 PM
@wxbrad flooding on South Ocean Boulevard in Myrtle Beach near Family Kingdom @myhorrynews
some cool convection is building up in the eastern quadrant of Isaias
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 09:44 PM
what I am noticing too
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:45 PM
Honestly, that may help those 100kt+ velocity bins reach closer to the surface
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:45 PM
9:40 pm. My location in North #MyrtleBeach in relation to #Hurricane #ISAIAS. Leading edge was tame; radar & buoy data suggest SW eyewall (on backside) is vigorous, so I’m staying here. Don’t want to go further E when the action’s on W side. P.S. Significant storm surge here....
Storm surge really coming in
Major storm surge occurring in Cherry Grove currently!!!!!!
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM
latest dropsonde found a ~100kt wind at the lowest 500m
and ~90kt at the lowest 150m
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM
I think a run at cat 2 is definitely happening
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM
I agree
ohshit
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM
Very thankful this doesn't have more time over the water then it does
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 09:47 PM
could be the most lopsided category 2 hurricane we have seen in some time
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:47 PM
Sudden RI into a major cane before landfall would be catastrophic but is thankfully super unlikely
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:48 PM
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 09:51 PM
Eye becoming more apparent on radar.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:51 PM
yesssss oh yess.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:53 PM
Recon is hitting some super intense winds rn
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:54 PM
95kt+ FL winds
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:56 PM
@spotternetwork: Spotr 2 miles ENE of NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC @ 01:49 UTC FFlood>-Rapidly rising storm surge across a number of streets in Cherry Grove. 22n
Tornado warning in Wilmington NC (edited)
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:56 PM
Tornado warning for me
here we go
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:57 PM
It's on the ground @Nick (Wilmington, NC)
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:02 PM
Gonna stay south of me
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:03 PM
yeah I see it
Springmaid Pier, SC had a storm surge of 4.26' earlier this evening from #Isaias
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 10:04 PM
983!
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:05 PM
LM continues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 0.00 IN] for Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender [NC] till 10:30 PM ED
On the ground
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:05 PM
Eyewall of #HurricaneIsaias ripping into #CarolinaBeach https://t.co/GjkaJ3BTzf
Likes
178
Chris Jackson is safe.
@theG57 Yeah on dry ground... elevated. About 50’ in the sky. The only garage in Cherry Grove
Something has happened to the wind readings from our weather station but the barometer is kicking. The eye is almost right over the location - will be interesting to see how low it goes here. It’s an RM Young barometer - top of the line.
😳 3
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 10:11 PM
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:11 PM
seems something got hit.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 10:12 PM
Isaias seems to be making landfall right now just east of Myrtle Beach
based on radar
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:13 PM
Looks like Carolina shores NC
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:13 PM
yep
Chris said it did intensify
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:20 PM
Buoy 41013 located 10mi WSW of Frying Pan Shoals, NC reporting 18.7 foot waves! @spann @JimCantore #NCwx #HurricaneIsaias
Hank 3
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 10:24 PM
Brunswick County dispatch reporting a neighborhood struck by a tornado in Leland NC #ncwx
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 10:24 PM
F. Eye Character: Not Available G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles)
Latest vortex message from recon. (edited)
Also pegs it at 988 mb
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:28 PM
97 MPH at fryingpan
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 10:43 PM
A few stars or planets are visible in cloud breaks in eye of #Isaias
this 3
Moon the eye is here can also see star 987MB! #ncwx #Isaias @WRALAimee @medwick @JimCantore @katcampbellwx @MarkBoyleTV
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 03-Aug-20 10:52 PM
Surprised they didnt change the winds considering the reports
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 10:52 PM
Honestly thought Isaias would squeeze out 80-85kt
Considering recon and radar data
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:52 PM
At this point it's not really gonna change anything
this 4
Power flashes being reported at Carolina Beach
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 10:59 PM
Public safety scanner for Brunswick just reported buildings destroyed in Belville and Waterford
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 11:01 PM
Building literally got submerged in water
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 03-Aug-20 11:02 PM
If we had a random 1,000 ft tower or hill out there somewhere would be incredible to see the gusts just above the surface
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 11:09 PM
FD reports 4’ storm surge Oak Island NC. A number of calls for rescue in homes people are moving to second floors. #ncwx #HurricaneIsaias
Hank 5
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:13 PM
Winds gusting to 20 here north of ILM
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 11:14 PM
another hurricane is coming, warnings are issued well in advance People:"We'll be fine" Hurricane: Hits People:
Yao 2
pokeshock 2
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:14 PM
literally everyone here
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Marty (NW TN) 03-Aug-20 11:15 PM
is landfall now a better thing for the mid atlantic and NE tomorrow or is it probably not going to matter at this point
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 11:16 PM
"I can stay in my house on the shore" 4 foot storm surge (edited)
pika
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 11:17 PM
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 11:29 PM
For the first time in my life, I can say I’m in the eye of a hurricane. It’s pretty awe inspiring and definitely not what I expected. Eerily still and calm here, encountered some dense fog on the edge of the eye. #lifegoals #HurricaneIsaias #ISAIAS #ncwx #scwx
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 11:31 PM
I don't really care for chasing hurricanes but for 2 things, chasing minisups/sups in the bands, and I would really like to experience a major eye with stadium effect once in my life.
The rest just seems like annoying massive amounts of rain, and non tornadic severe storms. Not even much lightning often (edited)
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:34 PM
Damn power flickering on and off here big time
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 03-Aug-20 11:38 PM
67 mph gusts being recorded at a weather station in Wilmington.
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:38 PM
Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide.
Here is my station
Just clocked a 23 MPH gust
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 11:39 PM
Recon going in for another pass
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 11:42 PM
wow thats a lot of 105k flight level winds
solid 75kt+ all throught he onshore quad (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 11:47 PM
Developing Flames are shooting 20 to 30 feet into the air now! Likely many houses involved. Hopefully everyone got out safely! #ncwx #Isaias
Hank 2
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 11:48 PM
Surge in Ocean Isle is bad
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:49 PM
911 service suspended in New Hanover
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 11:50 PM
Sounds like Elizabeth City got hit by a tornado
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 11:52 PM
impressive peaking of KE
its basically a cat 2 (minus a few mph)
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:54 PM
I live at the yellow box and still have power
I guess you can say I have been lucky so far
?
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Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 04-Aug-20 12:02 AM
https://m.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/10120 Scanner reporting structure fires
Brunswick County Fire and Rescue Live Audio Feed on Broadcastify.com
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:02 AM
Hank 5
Oak island
Multiple house fires crews cant get over the road
😔 4
Jesus christ that's the fire from across the beach
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 12:06 AM
Large fire at W 4th St & Driftwood Dr. Ocean Isle Beach. According to Brunswick County Commisioner & Fire Dept. Facebook pages, multiple homes fully involved, building collapse. Requesting multiple unit assistance from Horry County and elsewhere. #Isaias
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 12:12 AM
Buoy 41038 reporting a 134 mph gust
But only 46 mph sustained so may not be accurate
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 12:13 AM
😳😳Guessing this is an error or the Wrightsville buoy got hit by a waterspout. #Isaias #ncwx
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 12:28 AM
Apparently that buoy 41038 did the same exact thing with the same exact wind gust speed in Florence. Likely some complicated technical glitch
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:29 AM
and power is out
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 12:29 AM
F
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 12:30 AM
1 hour ago, Wrightsville Beach Nearshore Buoy (Station 41038) had a wind gust to 134 mph (116.6 knots). This Buoy is just ahead of Hurricane Florence. Data here... https://t.co/Il3I6sPLnq
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:30 AM
But the gen is up
and ATT is still up
HYPE
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:35 AM
eyewall looks better now than it did offshore
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 12:38 AM
#BREAKING - #Video of a large fire in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina as #HurricaneIsaias makes landfall. Reports that it is a house on fire in cherry grove on 46th street. https://t.co/eufRKYFCdX
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 12:44 AM
At approximately 11:40 p.m., there were reports of multiple structure fires in the area of Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina. Horry County Fire Rescue is providing multiple units to help in response. #HCFR
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:46 AM
Jesus
That's terrible
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:49 AM
looks like max rainfall so far is 5-6 inches in wilmington areas. if it stays at or below that going north it will help stop too much flooding. anything more than 6 and we'll have issues
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 12:51 AM
Without fireboats, they're done for. Insurance, rebuild, construction companies will do well.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:55 AM
AIG lost 600M$ last quarter
a big insurance year for storms could lead to mass backruptcies from insurance companies
AIG and several others had to be bailed out after katrina, and again in 2008 from the housing fallout
AIG is too big to fail, i'm sure they would just bail them out again
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 12:57 AM
They've got to be able to just charge these rich guys that build houses on sticks, on the ocean, a major premium to cover.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:58 AM
that would be cost prohibitive to the seaside communities, they would become ghost-towns. the feds would rather pay the insurance for the rich poeple
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 12:58 AM
Or is it like everything else, where it would cost you or me a few grand to insure a car, but rich guys can insure a beach house for like 15 bucks? That happens, too.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:59 AM
oh yeah, flood insurance isn't cheap, but its like 28x cheaper than it should be for coastal homes
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:01 AM
Then the insurance companies get to argue over if the loss is because of a flood, or a fire. The US Government is the only provider of flood insurance, though, aren't they?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:01 AM
for homes, yes. but it's usually through a secondary vendor like AIG
the feds rarely do anything themselves anymore. 'small government' and all that jazz
they don't even do emergency management in house anymore at the federal level after the fact. once you're like 1 month post-disaster, it's all outsourced to for-profits
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:04 AM
Well, it seems that it used to be that the Government couldn't run any sort of business without messing it up, and the private companies were better at it. Now days, it seems like both the Government and the businesses are both incompetent.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:06 AM
the govenrment used to be pretty good at big jobs. the hoover dam, defense production act. interstate system. then it got stripped down and de-funded. working on shoe-strings they had to start cutting corners and things went to hell. then they privatized it, increased teh budgets, and lets for-profits get away with huge profits while doing a job that was just as shit as the under-funded feds, or worse
don't get me started on NWS underfunding in the 2000's
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:09 AM
I remember for years, the biggest examples were Amtrak, the USPS, and Medicare. The Federal Government managed, over the course of a decade, to bankrupt the only nationwide passenger train system, a major parcel delivery service, and a health insurance provider. 3 Things that shouldn't be capable of being bankrupted, two of them defacto monopolies.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:11 AM
they were intentionally mis-managed in order to privatize them. its a pretty common tactic. defund, deregulate, privatize.
same thing they did to british railroads. defunded, went to shit. privatized. got WORSE. had to be bought by the goverment. is good again
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:12 AM
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 01:13 AM
@hurricanetrack I always said Wilmington would make a great Venice.
Man, that is not good
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:14 AM
does that river ever NOT flood from a cat 1/2?
same deal with matthew and florence
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:14 AM
nope the lower streets always flood.
Specially on that boardwalk
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM
100%. It's pretty dependable that way.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM
11:50 pm. Going back in... Ocean Isle Beach #NorthCarolina #Hurricane #ISAIAS https://t.co/6cIP4tsWpu
Retweets
106
Likes
439
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM
gonna be a long night. gonna wake up /w the storm north of norfolk probably, tors up the del-mar-va
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM
Mark Sudduth is one of my heroes. Dude is so cool.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM
very
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM
Umm it’s called water street for a reason
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM
How's the southern eyewall treating you Nick?
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM
He's the reason I've always wanted to build a hurricane truck.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM
lol
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM
Getting slammed son
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM
yee
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM
Twice in 2 yrs Nick. Doing pretty good.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM
Wind gusts near 70 mph there once again, can't catch a break, just get through this and congratulations, you've survived yet another hurricane (edited)
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM
I have lived in Wilmington 3 years. We have had three hurricanes
#winning
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM
lol
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM
Hurricanes make for great medium-duration emergencies.
Truly electric.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 01:18 AM
That's one way to look at it haha
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:18 AM
Worst impacts i got here were from Irma in my lifetime with 60 or so mph wind gusts, although Opal gave 75 mph wind gusts near here in '95
Can't imagine sustained 80-85 mph winds and wind gusts of over 100
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM
My weather station lost power for a few minutes during the generator switch but I believe I hit tropical storm gusts
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM
Dude, it's wicked and scary, but then life-affirming.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM
oh it's fun-ish like going threw a carwash with winds, for hours.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM
Mother nature don't sleep
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM
It's putting yourself not only in conditions that are trying to kill you, but for extended periods of time.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM
Shouldn't expect less when you got like 400-500 0-1km SRH sitting there, practically anything in this environment is gonna spin
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM
Station reported a gust of 22.8 as high. Obviously way low
I guess that’s what cheap equipment gets you
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM
yeah don't trust that
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM
Oh that's a big CC drop now
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM
Wasn't there a 130ish gust earlier?
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM
Wouldn't wanna be near Windsor rn
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM
it's doens't save the highest gust over a 15 or 33 second. Just what the wind does at that very time. Sucks.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM
Hell no
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:22 AM
Yeah, if you want continual readouts, that's RM Young territory. At least it used to be.
Is that AKQs turf, or MHXs?
Looks like AKQ.
This is going to be a long night, for sure.
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:27 AM
One of many cars flooded in downtown #WilmingtonNC by storm surge and #HurricaneIsaias @accuweather #ncwx https://t.co/41WuG8PazS
Like come on folks. What did you expect
That hotel is literally on the river.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:29 AM
oh it's that one. That's the one hailtrace stayed at I think?
back in Florence
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:30 AM
No they were up a few blocks
This is the Ballast
They were at river view I believe
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 01:30 AM
Debris lofted as high as 14kft on that TORR btw
OOF 2
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:40 AM
Damn also 250k without power across the state
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 01:42 AM
Holy crap - likely a very strong #tornado south of Windsor, NC around 120am EDT with radar showing a large TDS and debris up to 20,000 feet 😮 #HurricaneIsaias #ncwx
Hank
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 01:56 AM
Seems like this couplet strengthened over the past couple minutes. Something to look out for in my opinion. Can’t make out a CC sig on any close by radars, but I still wish the best for those in its path.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:03 AM
That's a lot of substantial tornado activity especially for an overnight landfall, rough night out there
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 02:07 AM
Was five simultaneous TORs up at the same time around the same area. It’s just a bad place to be right now. Hope everyone is safe. I know there was one TORR outside of Windsor and that looked like a very serious situation.
This couplet is still my focus. Looks like its maintaining strength but barely any CC activity out of it. I wonder what’s going on?
TOR expired. Oh well.
Looks like a dangerous situation is forming South of Murfreesboro
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:37 AM
Is that debris fallout occurring now? PDS warning 'large and extremely dangerous' on that
I gotta sleep but it's hard to with all this going on
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 04-Aug-20 02:37 AM
Yeah that’s all debris
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:37 AM
10 minutes ago
Since then, it's debris field on CC has grown exponentially
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:41 AM
That's a biggun, yeesh
Looks like perhaps another TDS with fallout near Como, but hard to tell
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:56 AM
Well the big one near Elizabeth City is down now
PDS tornado warning with that now
Includes Suffolk VA
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 03:00 AM
Gosh darnit I missed it the second I took my eyes away
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 03:01 AM
And a confirmed tornado approaching Courtland VA. Goodness
CC spiked a lil, very close to downtown
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 03:23 AM
Suffolk has been hit extraordinarily hard. Dangerous since it’s 3:30AM. Hope nothing too bad.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 03:26 AM
Big debris spike and debris ball leaving town, ya hate to see it (edited)
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 03:32 AM
Its still lofting debris into the air
Carving a warpath north of Suffolk
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 04-Aug-20 03:33 AM
A debris ball on a tropical tornado? Not something you see every day.
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 04:33 AM
Alright what did I miss (edited)
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 04:35 AM
tornado hell
multiple intense tornadoes, to be more precise
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 04:36 AM
Damn that sucks
These tropical tornados man they are hell
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 04:37 AM
Here's one example
This was after it's peak intensity*
Here's a second one
This was possibly one the stronger tornadoes of this likely outbreak thus far; series debris fallout occurred with this
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 07:40 AM
Did I miss a couple of tropical tornadoes?
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Max (Saint John, NB) 04-Aug-20 07:43 AM
you missed many
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Max (Saint John, NB) 04-Aug-20 07:58 AM
New jersey
CONTAMINATED 2
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 08:00 AM
Debris leftover after a suspected tornado lifted a home off its foundation. One is hurt according to deputy fire chief in Mardela Springs @wboc https://t.co/IJqyXeHdKy
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 08:23 AM
Only broad rotation, but I’ve been staring at it for a while now and suddenly a TOR appareared
Might be because I live just outside the area lol
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:40 AM
I done told y'all this would be a major tornado maker
Got me that 10% tor risk.
And like predicted, it's been over land for 12 hours and only lost 10kts of wind speed. Baroclinic monster.
Also I had no idea people in the northeastern states freak out horribly to tornado warnings
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 08:50 AM
TOR in MA lol
Yao 3
Massachusetts 2
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 08:51 AM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 08:52 AM
We literally can not stress this enough! Please take shelter if you are under a warning! #DEwx #MDwx https://t.co/890jLCZ0Lk
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:57 AM
These tors are no joke. Was some night of the twisters action going on in VA last night
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 08:59 AM
Just finished one of the craziest shifts I’ve ever had at the NWS. Was not expecting the caliber of tors we had for those 2-3 hours...followed by 5 hours of more typical quick hitting TC couplets. Gonna be unpacking last night for a long time. Now to bed after 8 mids
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:01 AM
NJ, NYC, LI sound, all the way to Mass up for a rough dad, very rough
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 09:02 AM
West side of Dover appears to have taken a hit from a likely tornado based on radar.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:02 AM
whats amazing is that it's still trying to reform the eye wall on the N side.. never givign up
yup, and many areas won't be able to do damage surveys until the storm is totally gone
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:03 AM
It scares me what might happen once the storm gets to NJ/NY/CT/MA.
this 2
Spann 3
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:04 AM
onshore humid flow, giant hodos. LI sound all the way into the mass mountains
isaias is baby ivan
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 04-Aug-20 09:11 AM
How many tornado warnings has isaias produced now, at least 80 right
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 04-Aug-20 09:12 AM
A friend of mine on another Discord (for a site I occasionally write for) and I were discussing this storm as a whole, and it really has been fascinating in how it has defied norms. My friend was USAF and spent part of his time in working with the AF mets and has some experience with forecasting. Been very interesting to watch all this unfold
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:15 AM
While isolated cells, including mini-supercells, will be possible, the greatest threat for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to remain with the primary, long-lived arcing band of storms, just ahead of the cyclone and where pressure falls are strongest. - SPC (edited)
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 09:16 AM
ABC TV station in Salisbury, MD taken off the air due to a loss of power. https://twitter.com/DanielJohnsonWx/status/1290630451183353857
Power is out at the station and we’re unable to get on TV right now.
Hank 3
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:16 AM
500+ 0-1 KM SRH. NOICE
strong theta-e advection ahead of the storm in the 'warm sector' east of the rain shield
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 09:22 AM
How does a major market TV station not have backup power
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 09:23 AM
Cheap owners @Nick (Wilmington, NC)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:23 AM
supercell compostites up to 11 in delmarva
with 6's already in Long island. its gonna be a day
70's TD, low t-td gaps. i can't even explain how amazing this setup is for tors
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:25 AM
What environment is required for violent tropical tornadoes?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:26 AM
tbh, they don't exist. violent means EF4+, the highest rating for a tropical tornado is EF3 from ivan, if i recall
significant tornadoes of EF2 are pretty rare, but these would be the conditions
most tropical tornadoes are swift moving couplets taht can't do more than an EF1. mini-supercells head of the storm might be able to make en ef2/3. but getting it to produce real to life supercells /w an EF4 might not be possible
this being said. we already had 1 fatailty overnight from a tornado in NC> and with the 14k+ debris heights. that sounds like EF2+ damage
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:28 AM
There have been 3 violent tropical tornadoes in recorded history
The shear environment in Upper NJ
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:35 AM
i see carla and hilda as tropical F4 makers. hilda's was due to interaction /w a cold front, so ill give that to the front. and carla was a monster cat 4 coming onshore at just the right time. i dont think we can duplicate those parameters with an already landfallen storm this far north, but i could be wrong.
cape inside a hurricane usually is below 2k. so mini-supercells are the favored setup. hard to get an EF4 w/o more than 2k cape.
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:36 AM
Ah
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 04-Aug-20 09:38 AM
It’s hard to get tropical cyclone spawned tornadoes to be stronger than F2/Ef2, likely because most tornadoes spawned by hurricanes are short lived (edited)
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:38 AM
Also TORs are starting to pop up in PA, NY and MA.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:39 AM
there is a good area of 2k+ cape over the ocean. taht will be getting drawn onshore and boosted by some daytime heating. we coudl see a major outbreak today.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 09:39 AM
TOR near Baltimore, moving southwest
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:40 AM
SRH numbers are huge. shear is good, low level winds are perfect. it's got all the ingredients
this 3
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 04-Aug-20 09:40 AM
Pretty severe damage, said it was a mobile home park
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 09:40 AM
1 dead, at least 3 unaccounted for after a #tornado destroyed 10 mobile homes in Windsor, Bertie County. Sky5 shows the damage including numerous downed trees and overturned cars. >> https://t.co/U7kesbIVU3 #wral #Isaias
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:42 AM
appears to be a tor ont he ground in NE PA
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 04-Aug-20 09:44 AM
Decent couplet moving on shore in New Jersey
Structure of #Isaias this morning: Green: Zone of heavy #rain extending N of center Red: Band of downpours signaling arrival of stronger winds, and w/occasional #tornado spin-ups Purple: An area of strong #wind continues S of that band as the LLJ continues sweeping N
#Isaias has been spawning tornadoes up and down the Mid-Atlantic coast. Here's a rotating wall cloud I intercepted an hour ago west of Ocean City, Maryland. Impossible to see what's going on at ground, but this storm was strongly spinning. @capitalweather https://t.co/7phNIGn...
Likes
112
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 04-Aug-20 09:51 AM
Certainly some major damage
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 09:52 AM
Large waterspout moving inland
Violent rotation with an offshore supercell as well
CC drop
TORR
Just recorded this from Strathmere NJ cam as there was rotation warning moving on shore from ocean!! @StephanieAbrams @JenCarfagno @weatherchannel @DaveCurren @JamesGWeather @myWeatherNJ @ABC7NYNewsDesk @NBCNewYork @CBSNewYork https://t.co/qU1h5xRMJO
monkaS 3
PotatoWedge 2
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 10:01 AM
This signature offshore really concerns me.
If it keeps up strength as it moves ashore it could be very bad
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Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 10:05 AM
wow that tornado damage is bad
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 10:43 AM
#Isaias have proven to be a prolific tornado producer the past 24 hours .@NWS offices have already issued nearly 100 tornado warnings across 10 states
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 04-Aug-20 10:58 AM
Jonathan confirms now that a second person is dead and was found in the damage left behind by the tornado. https://t.co/8ficJh0dI2
2 dead, 20 injured
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 11:17 AM
tor sig heading into NYC near coney island
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 11:22 AM
200ft beam height from TJFK, will get a good look at that
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 11:25 AM
no CC response on radar, if it was a waterspot its gone
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 11:27 AM
Certainly good timing on lifting
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 11:34 AM
Looks like there is a lull in tornadic activity right now
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 11:35 AM
Still some big bois well offshore but could be a while before those rotate in
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 11:44 AM
CHURCH SPARED: This picture shows the destructive path of the Bertie County tornado. The tornado snapped trees and leveled nearby buildings, but the church only lost a few shingles. https://t.co/tsJb6GnRPY
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 11:46 AM
God fearing tornado troll
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 11:48 AM
rain totals in SE PA 7-8 inches in spots. NE PA and N NJ could see more than that
flash floooding very likely
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 11:48 AM
DOYLESTOWN,PA BLDG COLLAPSE UNITS OPERATING AT THE DOYLESTOWN HOSPITAL FOR A PARTIAL BLDG COLLAPSE - SEARCHES UNDERWAY #BREAKING
Meso-analysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE in MA, RI and CT. If the strong shear reaches the area and the instability keeps up, the environment will become very ripe for tornadoes.
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 12:01 PM
Yeah I’m gonna guess I’m getting close to 7in
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 12:01 PM
#BREAKING: Mayor Bill de Blasio issues tornado warning for NYC: "That tornado warning is in effect now through 4pm today." https://t.co/Nzsp2bl1vL
facepalm
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Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 12:04 PM
pepeFacepalm
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 04-Aug-20 12:07 PM
Had to double check to see if that was from the Onion
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 04-Aug-20 12:07 PM
Uh...
Does he mean watch?
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 12:17 PM
He does, but he's clearly very misinformed.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:25 PM
so off topic, but go look at beirut on twitter, jesus
thermobaric fireworks detonation at the port. looks like somethign from anime
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 12:26 PM
#bad-stuff-man
Anyways it looks like the band of supercells is approaching Long Island now.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 12:37 PM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSETTS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EASTERN NEW YORK NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTHERN VERMONT COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:03 PM
shrimps about to come on land in long island. this is a now a tornado thread
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 01:21 PM
The environment in the Long Island area according to Meso-analysis. It is probably underestimating the shear though as the KOKX VWP shows 772 m2/s2 of 0-3 SRH.
Strong rotation offshore of Long Island
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 01:43 PM
Those offshore cells are awfully cellular and look to be more robust
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 01:44 PM
TOR in eastern NY
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 01:48 PM
These storms have decent rotation and are approaching Long Island right now.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 01:54 PM
Look at all these prefrontal shrimps
TOR for Northcentral MA
Possible TDS
Got deeper right near the couplet a scan ago, now it's gone
TOR for eastern Long Island
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 02:43 PM
74 knot gust at JFK airport
Hank 3
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 02:51 PM
2 TORs in VT/NH
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 02:54 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 03:08 PM
seen a few photos on twitter of lots of trees down in long island
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 04-Aug-20 05:03 PM
new tornado warning south of Manchester NH
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 08:39 PM
So now that we've had time for the data to fill out, here's Buoy 41038 from last night (edited)
this 3
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 04-Aug-20 08:45 PM
Whoa. So here’s a question...how valid do we think the two gusts near 120 kts are?
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 08:48 PM
That was what we were thinking last night
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:48 PM
Yeah not valid.
Didn’t realize it did it a second time lol
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 08:48 PM
Yeah, that's why I was kinda waiting for dust to settle lol, I had this up last night when I saw it spike again, figured I'd let it go
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:49 PM
Both are exactly 116.6 knots then it did the same thing for Florence..... at exactly 116.6 knots with a much lower sustained wind
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:52 PM
Whenever u have jet stream baroclinic hybridization the gusts will far exceed normal
So expect gusts to be up to a category higher than normal
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:53 PM
Well that gust was 3 categories higher lol
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:53 PM
Yup, so the storm was likely a cat 2 at the moment
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:55 PM
I still doubt the validity, having this happen 3 separate times with the same exact gust reading (and not differentiate by a few knots) screams malfunction
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 04-Aug-20 10:21 PM
Waterspout?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 10:49 PM
2 waterspouts going over the same location in 1 hour having the same exact gust speed seems very unlikely (edited)
Post-Tropical Cyclone #Isaias Advisory 32: Isaias Becomes a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it Moves Into Southeastern Canada. Tropical Storm Conditions Expected For a Few More Hours Along Portions of the New England Coast. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
Not the last advisory though, they will continue them until the TS warnings are cancelled for Maine
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 05-Aug-20 02:36 AM
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Aug-20 05:24 AM
Post-Tropical Cyclone #Isaias Advisory 33: Rain and Gusty Winds Continue to Spread Over Eastern Quebec. This is the Last Nhc Advisory. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Aug-20 08:53 AM
Mount Washington reported a peak wind gust of 146 MPH. This is the highest wind gust reported there in the month of August. #NHwx. Not bad for a little cat 1
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Aug-20 10:25 AM
To be fair that's on Mt. Washington, the highest peak in the region and the one most exposed to high altitude winds. It gets insane gusts from winter systems as well. Down on base level the winds were what you'd expect from a tropical storm. (edited)
The high gusts on Mt. Washington though were a good indicator that the jet carrying Isaias was trucking along, contributing to the tornado outbreak.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Aug-20 10:36 AM
the notable fact was that no august tropical system in new england was over 146, showing how sneaky strong this storm became after the jet linkage
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 05-Aug-20 01:09 PM
Haha jet go brrrrrrrrrrr
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 06-Aug-20 02:38 AM
Is Isaias dead yet?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Aug-20 02:41 AM
Yes
It's been extratropical for a while now
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 06-Aug-20 09:11 AM
Heading for the storm graveyard
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ModBot BOT 06-Aug-20 11:17 AM
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