Stormtrack - hurricane-isaias-2020

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 28-Jul-20 12:02 PM

Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 16.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 30/0000Z 17.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 20.1N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.1N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 26.8N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:03 PM

Yeah I've been waatching this off and on.

That bermuda High will have a big play in this.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 28-Jul-20 12:10 PM

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM

https://tenor.com/view/hype-train-go-fuck-yourself-hype-train-fuck-yourself-gif-12896241

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM

@Nick (Wilmington, NC) hi

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM

local FB pages here are already losing their minds

Hello Mr Glen

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:11 PM

really lol

Hello

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 28-Jul-20 12:12 PM

Yeah people are sick in the head

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 28-Jul-20 12:12 PM

agreed

Cat 1-2 would be interesting.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 28-Jul-20 12:17 PM

Euro?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 12:18 PM

Recon finding some impressive flight level winds so far

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 01:05 PM

Sign me up for the hype train

This is like a 6000 cape day in the plains. High potential. Lots of mesoscale variables

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 01:05 PM

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1288156405518798853?s=20

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

@webberweather Uncanny that you mention Matthew. I just finished recording my video discussion for this early afternoon and mentioned Matthew as well. Yikes.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288154297939775488?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

It's certainly a little troubling to see borderline hurricane-force flight level winds already in a system that hasn't fully developed yet. Certainly reminds me a bit of pre-#Matthew (2016)... https://t.co/EQqwiZPTGX

Matthew comparisons

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 01:13 PM

Matthew at 09/30/16 00 UTC SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities (NO MICROWAVE) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 SHIPS-RII 20.5% 38.0% 26.5% 20.4% 16.3% Logistic 16.2% 27.4% 16.7% 12.0% 0.0% Bayesian 5.3% 12.7% 4.2% 1.8% 1.1% Consensus 14.0% 26.0% 15.8% 11.4% 5.8% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

compare to this morning: Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 25.0% 15.3% 10.9% 9.7% 13.0% 34.3% 54.8%

its' no matthew (yet) but it's worth being a little nervous over

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 01:29 PM

compare: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016al14/16kmtpwp/2016al14_16kmtpwp_201609281332.gif matthew

9 - https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/16kmtpwp/2020al09_16kmtpwp_202007281316.gif

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 28-Jul-20 01:59 PM

Looks like the western part of it took over today

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 02:00 PM

Recon is investigating the eastern part and no wind shift at all, might just have one area of vorticity left

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 28-Jul-20 02:02 PM

That can't be good

I remember hearing here that the western part could strengthen more if it became dominant than the eastern part

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 02:05 PM

And Levi mentions it too

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1288173145443258368?s=21

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Gradually rising pressures as recon plane flies through the northeast side of #PTC9 suggests that there is not much of a dominant vort max there. Most of the focus is southwest. NE lobe will likely rotate around to more due north of the SW lobe tonight. Maybe get less elongat...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 02:53 PM

latest ripa forecast from co. state - https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al92/ripafcst/2020al92_ripafcst_000000000000.gif

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 03:05 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288184780798992385?s=20

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] Strong southerly east-side winds in #PTC9 are a contrast to the more WSW monsoon winds up to this point. This indicates the whole wave is about to rotate counterclockwise & become more oriented south-north tonight/tomorrow. Better chance for consolidation after t...

Likes

159

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 03:43 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 03:43 PM

They have yet to find a wind shift. Maybe one where they turned east at but need more data

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 03:45 PM

new ships data favoring longer time table for intensification: SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 03:54 PM

to me it looks like the center should be out near 57.5 W, not where they are at. they are at the center of the two nodes of the wave. but it is favoring the west node.

they could be doing atmosphere sampling just to see how moist that incoming Southern air is

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 04:00 PM

I can side with Royce

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 04:45 PM

this thing is going to have an eye before they find out where the center is

(pretty much what happened with matthew)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 28-Jul-20 04:46 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 04:56 PM

their location is still middle point between the two cloud masses. the western area looks like it has a decent thing going, maybe not closed but close. it's also got the most PWT around it

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 28-Jul-20 05:01 PM

Only at 40 mph and that wind field is a beast

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 05:08 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/737679166773788722/737778236637052998/image0.gif

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 05:22 PM

https://twitter.com/TheWeatherMastr/status/1288215468864569344?s=19

Frank's Weather (@TheWeatherMastr)

Recon seems to have encountered a slight shift in the winds, which could signal a possibly developing LLC. Minor for now, but something to watch as the mission continues. #PTC9

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 05:27 PM

they are done. heading out /w out much to show for a center. they missed by what appears to be a whole 2 degrees

HWRF went nuts this last run. near cat 3 near end run.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 05:31 PM

Near 40kt SFMRs during their exit

Yeah, they completely missed the probable developing LLC

Fractured data at the end, but extrapolated min pressure found is ~1006mb

Main SW vortmax may sport a ~3-5mb lower minimum pressure (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 05:36 PM

GFS 18z run guesses the LLC will for around 57W, due east of barbados @ 00 Z. that's about 1-1.5 degrees S and W of where they were looking

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 05:37 PM

Another recon scheduled for this evening so won’t be long until they are in again

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 05:38 PM

those rainfall totals for PR are no good, the last thing they need is a mini-maria

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 05:40 PM

I think the 1006 mb extrap is from there altitude change as they were finishing

It lines up exactly with it

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 06:11 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 06:43 PM

Levi posted in his video he thought that circulation is a mid level center that will move southwest and dissipate

He thinks a circulation will form ENE of their along with a secondary vorticity in the convection to the northeast and then start stacking (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 08:28 PM

https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1288268322052755457

Michael Watkins (@watkinstrack)

Woah, that is a big reformation to the WSW of the 5PM estimated center for #PTC9 . At 5PM the center was estimated near 14.4N 55.9W - now it's almost 3 degrees west and .2 degrees south of the previous estimate

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 09:43 PM

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1288284565723844608

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

That's not ideal, until this thing consolidates a center guidance is not going to be really good. #PTC9 #Isaias

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 09:51 PM

Called it

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 09:56 PM

https://tenor.com/view/mexican-laugh-laugh-laughing-laughing-hysterically-laughing-crying-gif-14871471

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 09:56 PM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/AL092020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Awkward

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 09:57 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/737679166773788722/737848905173172234/LATEST.png

Most recent ASCAT

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 09:59 PM

Good old asscat. Wonderful and often misleading

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 10:00 PM

It’s about all we got for analysis until recon in 3 ish hours

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 10:00 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 10:00 PM

Microwave has been useless so far

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 28-Jul-20 10:03 PM

Royce, would you say this is the more dominant vortmax currently?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 28-Jul-20 10:23 PM

based on mesoanalysis, the 850 fort max is right where you have it

buttt.. surfance convergence is way out west of barbados, and upper level divergence is back near the low

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 28-Jul-20 11:04 PM

Got the 5% chance of TS winds now

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 28-Jul-20 11:12 PM

They now have Nine peaking at 65mph prior to FL landfall

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Jul-20 11:51 PM

Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.

Interesting tidbit on SHIPS noted by the NHC

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Jul-20 12:18 AM

So the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS could be lowballing it?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 12:30 AM

Potentially if it survives Hispaniola

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 12:48 AM

the weaker and smaller this is, the further south it should stay

teh further south it stays, the better chance it has to do stupid stuff once it comes out into the florida straights

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:03 AM

00z HWRF has this considerably south of Puerto Rico now (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:15 AM

if this goes south of hispanola we're boned

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 01:15 AM

Please elaborate

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:16 AM

hispanola has 13000 ft mountains and just trashes most tropical systems. a bath on the south side even narrowly will bring it into cuba, which is mostly low and doesnt' impact circulation much

could pop out potentially just SE of miami ready to buff up, or worse, on the W side of florida

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:18 AM

HWRF takes it directly over Hispaniola this run so wouldn’t consider that much of a possibility yet

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:18 AM

DR gonna take one for the team

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 01:18 AM

Wouldn't give the models much weight UNTIL there's a prominent low level circulation

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:20 AM

Recon is out there right now looking around

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:21 AM

RIPA and SHIPS both are trashing odds of RI, let's hope they are right

odds cut in half this last run

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 01:50 AM

Winds up to 45mph

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 02:11 AM

^40kt/1006mb, chances of formation at 90/90

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 05:42 AM

DMAX is closing in on PTC9

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 07:46 AM

Has that fanned out “look” to it. Surprised it’s not closed yet.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 08:02 AM

Well then

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:11 AM

SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)

RIPA over 40% now as well for 25/24. we could have a hurricane by tonight

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:12 AM

Hurricane by tonight? Seems like a stretch considering it is still open to the south.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:12 AM

matthew was the same way, there was no solid center for ages and then POOF it was nearly a hurricane when they found it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:12 AM

Recon is having a hard time finding a center.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:13 AM

gotta treat is like a WPAC storm where they usually dont have HH obs, they gotta go off sat obs only

Co.ST models show the radius of max wind is finally contracting, still expecting formation today

looking at CI, it's nearly a 5. once a circulation forms it's ready to be a cat 1 or cat 2 almost right away

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:17 AM

We will see what kind of winds recon finds in the NE quadrant.

50-60 kt would be my guess.

Considering 45 kt was already found in the NW quadrant.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:45 AM

Recon going NW now? Thought they'd continue NE.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 29-Jul-20 09:46 AM

With the southerlies it’s clear there’s not much of note further NE

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 09:57 AM

First signs of a distinct wind shift (edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 29-Jul-20 10:02 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:15 AM

Still really no sign of west winds with this yet

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 29-Jul-20 10:16 AM

So uh how far west is this supposed to be getting

This looks like it’s been angling west a bit

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 10:48 AM

center near 16N 63.5 W it appears

winds shift from due S to NE

still no 'zero' center wind area, so it's still very wave-live

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 10:53 AM

The more west the potential center gets the greater cause for concern.

A more westward formation is a more southern travelling storm in more favorable conditions and also more likely to miss the large islands and potentially end up in the gulf.

Anyone in the US along the the coast from Key West to NOLA should be watching this.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:02 PM

so this system is definately on the list of weirdest waves ive seen

a 40kt healthy wave /w 60kt gusts taht can't find a center for 3 days

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 29-Jul-20 01:07 PM

you can thank its forward speed for that

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 29-Jul-20 01:26 PM

Certainly don't envy forecasters, what a weird situation

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 01:30 PM

some ensembles takign this thign all the way to NOLA. that's crazyness

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 01:49 PM

Only 275 miles worth of TS winds from the center guys, no biggie (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 01:49 PM

https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/1288512863414493185?s=21

NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan)

10:53 AM AST A wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) has been reported at Cyril E. King Airport in Saint Thomas. | Una ráfaga de viento de 52 mph (84 km/h) ha sido reportada en el Aeropuerto Cyril E. King en San Thomas. #usviwx

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:04 PM

insert monty python flesh wound meme ITS JUST A WAVE

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 02:07 PM

I don’t understand how this doesn’t have a center yet. It’s got everything going for it but no center at all.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:09 PM

the vorticity maximum is displaced from the surface convergence

the high speed of the system has prevented vertical stacking

a slower system, like hanna, eventually meanders itself together

systems with multiple vorticity maxes typically join together quickly, due to v(rot) > v(x)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 02:12 PM

12z euro gets this to near hurricane strength over the Bahamas. Quite a north shift.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:12 PM

but v(x) is so freaking fast, that the other vortex can't catch up, and because its north it just hangs back into the shear

this storm is a master class in fluid dynamics, and we're all failing

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 02:22 PM

Lol , euro ended up with a coastal scraper

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:30 PM

HWRF has a landfall has a cat2 on NC cape., then it INTENSFIES TO CAT 4 off the coast of VA/MD. ??? LOL WHUT?

2

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 29-Jul-20 02:32 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:33 PM

hey, its 2020, weirder stuff has happened

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 02:34 PM

Actually a ton of agreement on track in the 12z model suite

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:39 PM

on a side note, WV imagery show almost no dry air at any level. uppers, mids are just juicy AF> and even low levels have very little dry air ahead

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Jul-20 02:40 PM

HWRF has a landfall has a cat2 on NC cape., then it INTENSFIES TO CAT 4 off the coast of VA/MD. ??? LOL WHUT?

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Sounds like Bob 1991 but stronger

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 02:52 PM

Time to Google Bob. Before my day

yeah those model runs predicting a bob/carol type storm today would be an issue for new england. cat2/cat3 landfalls have been very rare there the last 30 years

seems like something 'stronger than sandy' even a quick mover, would cause serious issues

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 03:02 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288549517726539783?s=20

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that #PTC9 is getting very close to having a closed circulation, even if it's still a broad one. Genesis of TS Isaias is likely not far off. Regardless of when this happens, tropical storm conditions likely in PR, USVI, and ...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 03:02 PM

GASPS A NW Wind!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 03:12 PM

Hwrf is doing it again...https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

4

If hwrf is right and we get a worse than hurricane Bob in long Island. It think it's time to call it a year a just close the planet

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 04:08 PM

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1288565930855927817

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

Curious about the accuracy of this ship observation near #PTC9. If verified, would indicate that the system is probably very close to being a TC with a closed circulation. We'll see if we get some other obs.

Potentially a west wind if the ship is verifiable

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:16 PM

https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/1288566013978607616

Simon Brewer (@SimonStormRider)

#PTC9 is HUGE! Circulation will face some shear & potential mountainous islands (path dependant) next several days - if core reaches warm eastern Gulf SSTs it might have a 250 mb jet right entrance region to supercharge intensity: #Isaias

No, we're not doing this

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 04:18 PM

steering winds are almost due W or even WSW for the next 24 hours, this thing could totally bypass hispanola

well, the center could, at least

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:19 PM

Depending on timing if it gets into the GOM and uses the right entrance jet streak with its temporary advantage before shearing apart can allow it to try to RI

This LLC needs to form so we get a better idea how far south/north this thing really is and models can calibrate to that, splits between ensemble mean and all this junk is stressful because it's a shot in the dark

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 04:23 PM

opal was teh first really big hurricane of the satellite era i remebmer watching as a kid ont he weather channel. was too young for andrew

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:23 PM

However evidence of OBS showing a potentially close circulation may just be enough for us to get it named at 5PM

Opal was a potent system even up into places like Columbus/Fortson, where it provided 80 mph or so wind gusts

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 04:37 PM

barolinicly enhanced systems are no joke. opal, sandy are great examples.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 29-Jul-20 04:45 PM

Latest advisory holds it at a PTC still

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:47 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288575869968146433

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

@antmasiello @JackSillin Yeah I'd actually argue that interaction w/ the terrain of Hispaniola is actually going to have the opposite effect on #PTC9 here given its size & intensity & will probably tighten the southern end of the wave envelope that's still open or nearly so a...

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 29-Jul-20 04:49 PM

My earliest memory I can put an accurate date to was hiding in the basement half the night while the tall pines around the house bent in Opal's inland gusts (edited)

Now that I'm older i would probably go meet it at mom's apartment 15 mins from the beach instead

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 29-Jul-20 04:50 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 04:52 PM

TFW in cone

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288579289772888071

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

@antmasiello @TropicalTidbits @JackSillin #PTC9 could probably more than easily afford to lose some weight & cutoff basically half of its wave envelope, the interaction may be very favorable if anything in its current state.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 05:03 PM

hey look, alabama is in the cone. didnt even need a sharpie

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 05:03 PM

Of course, now I'm in the cone

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 05:17 PM

hurricane man is complaining about 9 not forming a center so he's gonna wait it out. if he keeps waiting, it might just put him in the cone at his house in pass christian, MS

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 29-Jul-20 05:20 PM

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1288581574192173056

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

@TropicalTidbits @antmasiello @webberweather @JackSillin

7

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 05:24 PM

big brain^

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 06:09 PM

center near 16N 66W? maybe? geeze

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 09:04 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) What's your thoughts on models shifting

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 09:09 PM

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) i dont trust anythign ta this point

it looks half dead at this point. it was getting better earlier, now its falling part. hell it looks like it might split in half

RI tables and other intensity probs have dropped to near zero

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:26 PM

That’s just dmin taking its effect, wait for next dmax and see if it’s a TS by then.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Jul-20 09:26 PM

Jesus this system has been a clusterf*ck to forecast

I wouldn't be surprised if it just defies all models and barrels into the west Caribbean

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Jul-20 09:29 PM

That’s what I’m thinking

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 09:33 PM

Looks like we continue the wait and see game for another 24 hours

1

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:26 PM

Actually ATCF may have designated this as Isaias

If so, expect the 11pm to be Isaias also

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 10:38 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 10:48 PM

mesoanalysis shows a clear vortex on the S side, should be named soon...you'd think

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:49 PM

NHC names Tropical Storm Isaias

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 29-Jul-20 10:49 PM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

there we go

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:50 PM

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED ees-ah-EE-ahs)...

2

7

Lmao

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 29-Jul-20 10:50 PM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 29-Jul-20 10:50 PM

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM

WUT

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM

65mph peak

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 29-Jul-20 10:53 PM

Pretty big cone shift back east

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 29-Jul-20 10:56 PM

the shear is red herring in bahamas. it should become a hurricane once it passes hispanola

the models aren't handling this well at all

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 29-Jul-20 10:59 PM

We pulling another Dorian, just TS-style?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 11:02 PM

The scatterometer data show that the center of the system is south of the previously estimated track, so there is a lot of uncertainty in the initial motion estimate of 285/17 kt.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Jul-20 11:04 PM

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) mainly to the northeast of the center.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 29-Jul-20 11:07 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 29-Jul-20 11:14 PM

HWRF nailed the position guys

6

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Jul-20 11:33 PM

Got a question

I dont follow up on Tropics a lot but Im going to intercept a Hurricane this fall, should I go down to NC for Isaias?

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 29-Jul-20 11:34 PM

too early to tell

i think by the end of the weekend youll have a better outlook on whether its worth the drive or not

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 12:07 AM

NHC put the pronunciation in their first tweet lol

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1288668150746116096

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Storm #Isaias Advisory 7: Disturbance Becomes Tropical Storm Isaias (Pronounced Ees-Ah-Ee-Ahs). https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Retweets

616

Likes

843

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 12:44 AM

max forecast is up to 65mph. intensity creep happening already

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 01:18 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.1 / 988.6mb/ 47.0kt

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-Jul-20 02:14 AM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Jul-20 03:55 AM

Per latest ATCF/TT update, TS Isaias is up to 50kt

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Jul-20 04:02 AM

several hot towers next to the circulation

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 04:56 AM

They now have it riding up the US coast as a near Cat 1 Trop Storm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 08:42 AM

The center moved north like 2 degrees overnight to under the cdo

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=09L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Its already to the DR coast

It's just gonna brust the DR and come out into the Bahamas in no time. On the north side. This favors an east coast curve pattern

Official forecast up to 70mph max. Forecast creep here we go

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 30-Jul-20 08:51 AM

Intensity forecasts always are a burden

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 30-Jul-20 09:03 AM

Center will likely reform to the north of Hispaniola after interacting with the island

Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 09:20 AM

2020ing

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 09:56 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/737679166773788722/738390158105247854/recon_AF309-0409A-ISAIAS.png

Looks like it’s in the process of reforming now

Apparently weather station MDPC seen on the NE tip of DR is recording lower pressures than the fix

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288824678065352705?s=19

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

The pressure at MDBC at the tip of the Dominican Republic has sunk to a value lower than the first recon VDM, indicating the possible reformation northward near that location that may be in progress. We may be in a brief period of a poorly-defined center while this happens.

Likes

140

Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 10:19 AM

Hurricane Isaias incoming

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/738398689244217344/recon_AF309-0409A-ISAIAS_timeseries.png

Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 30-Jul-20 10:20 AM

Those winds are in the gap.

the Mona Passage

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 10:22 AM

For a better picture

Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 30-Jul-20 10:27 AM

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 30-Jul-20 10:31 AM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/738401126096830504/recon_AF309-0409A-ISAIAS_timeseries.png

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 10:32 AM

I believe what whoosh is referring to is that the Mona may locally enhance winds (edited)

Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 30-Jul-20 10:39 AM

could be a coincidence

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 11:01 AM

From the NHC Discussion: 3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida later today. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 11:36 AM

there isn't even a closed circulation anymore it appears, it's a 50kt wave again. GJ 2020

but as i say that, the kinetic intensity scale says its a cat-1 https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/mpswtcke/2020al09_mpswtcke_202007301500.gif (edited)

Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 11:39 AM

wtf

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 11:42 AM

dvorak agrees. he's baaack https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/dgtldvor/2020al09_dgtldvor_202007301500.gif

forecast models pretty much all agree, its a gonna be a typical cape hatteras / nantucket blaster

again, its 2020 don't trust anything in the models, but its the first sign of something normal

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 12:25 PM

cloud presentation is improving despite the islands. great outflow today. i expect him to intensify overnight and finally find a single center (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 01:37 PM

models favoring a large eyed storm, with huge wind area, doign a typical coastal landfall in NC somewhere. and jetting north. lots of erosion and some heavy rains. a great primer for a secondary storm (later in say, october) to do significantly more damage

the cloud outflow at this point looks like it's ready to jump to cat 1/2, not sitting over a hurricane kiling island. it's impressive how much moisture it's drawing in. looks like goku sucking in energy for a spirit bomb

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-20 01:45 PM

I was thinking about heading to Wilmington a day before landfall but idk

Max (Saint John, NB) 30-Jul-20 02:32 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/738461424518430851/GANIMefEzTx50.png

That is 100% an eye

Wtf

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 30-Jul-20 02:35 PM

12z Euro

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 30-Jul-20 03:00 PM

That's a Florence.

@Nick (Wilmington, NC)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 03:17 PM

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 03:19 PM

Ugh no

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 03:30 PM

Looks like it's trying to form an eye

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 30-Jul-20 03:31 PM

Gonna be bad news for Haiti when those bands start raking over the mountains there

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 03:56 PM

Might be a mid level clearing, don’t think we have a surface center quite yet

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288926881304252416?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

Substantial pressure falls are occurring at many sfc stations over Hispaniola thanks to #Isaias. Santiago de los Caballeros & El Batey are reporting MSLP of 29.44" (997mb) & 29.5" (999mb) respectively. Current @NHC_Atlantic advisory pegs #Isaias at 1003mb; #Isaias is intensif...

997 mb report (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 04:11 PM

the vort max is finally stacked top to bottom, it shoudl find a central circulation again soon

we might have ourselves a very lopsided storm due to all the shear from the SW

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 04:21 PM

How would the storm be lopsided if the vort Max is stacked from top to bottom? If it were sheared...the vort would be tilted, yes?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 04:30 PM

not necessarily. the convection will be lopsided as its blown away from the center. douglas, for example. is still rotation at teh surface and aloft roughly at this same location, but the cloud pattern is quit well away

tilted, yes, but in the case of this storm, when it was, 9, the surface rotation was not remotely close to the mid level vort, and wasn't tilted or anything, it was just disconnected

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 04:32 PM

Gotcha. Thanks.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 04:34 PM

waves during their phase change into a cyclone have a lot of vorticity fluid dynamics crap going on, stuff that's way crazier than we did back in dynamic meteorology. stuff we don't even fully understand yet. it's far more complex than tornado-genesis, and that is still a mystery in itself

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 05:35 PM

forecast up to 75, the creep continues

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 30-Jul-20 06:50 PM

Explosive convection rn

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 06:53 PM

A n00b question here, but would a deeper storm tend to feel the ridge easier or the incoming trof?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 06:59 PM

I believe the trof.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 07:00 PM

That’s what I thought but I wanted to ask

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 07:00 PM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PO150o2pNw0

Tropical Tidbits

Isaias Strengthening on Approach to the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be interpreted as such. Wh...

Levi explains it better than I could ever lol

2

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 07:08 PM

Lol he and Mark Sudduth are really good.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 07:44 PM

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas.

Got our first hurricane warnings issued

6

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 07:49 PM

Wonder if we’ll see hurricane watches for the East coast of Florida at 11 pm.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 30-Jul-20 07:54 PM

Depends on how the wind field forms as it approaches Florida

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 08:10 PM

After a delay, recon taking off momentarily

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 09:56 PM

After even a further delay, they are in the air

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 30-Jul-20 11:11 PM

Coastal FL under trop storm watch, no hurricane watches yet

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:12 PM

Recon about to the supposed center. Already have 50 knot SFMRs

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 30-Jul-20 11:25 PM

88 kt flight-level, 65 kt unflagged SFMR,

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:27 PM

Yeah this may be a hurricane (edited)

Very good evidence for an update statement

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 30-Jul-20 11:28 PM

That's a hurricane, son

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Jul-20 11:30 PM

Yeah, when you have ~90kt FL winds, you just about have hurricane force sustained winds at the surface

2

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 30-Jul-20 11:32 PM

Well... that escalated quickly.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:41 PM

We have a hurricane per NHC

80 mph

Special update statement

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 11:42 PM

No shit

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS ISAIAS IS A HURRICANE.

4

5

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM

Who could've guessed?

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM

Special advisory will be issued shortly by the NHC

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM

Well that was unexpected

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 11:44 PM

Damn this boy is popping off

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 30-Jul-20 11:45 PM

Here's the full update

NHC website officially updated; Isaias is a hurricane

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-Jul-20 11:46 PM

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 11:47 PM

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 30-Jul-20 11:48 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289043784337108992

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

@webberweather @AndyHazelton @Wxmanms1 Yeah now that we are seeing the true intensity of #Isaias for the first time (the mesovortex was never sampled this morning), it seems likely the mesovortex made it down to the sfc a while ago & we've been underestimating the intensity o...

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 30-Jul-20 11:52 PM

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 30-Jul-20 11:57 PM

We need a channel name update in here

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-Jul-20 11:58 PM

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1289047764647776262

Craig Ceecee (@CC_StormWatch)

#Isaias strengthened into a hurricane despite sitting not far from 40 knots of wind shear AND land interaction from Hispaniola. Only in 2020, you may ask?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:00 AM

How much of that shear shown is just from the outflow of Isaias though (edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Jul-20 12:02 AM

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 31-Jul-20 12:02 AM

May as well throw any recent model runs out for intensity at this point

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:06 AM

Behold hwrf, the one true prophet.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:06 AM

Look at this wind field

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:08 AM

It's 15 degrees from top to bottom. The wind field is the size of something in the north Atlantic or wpac.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/irtcsize/2020al09_irtcsize_000000000000.gif

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 31-Jul-20 12:16 AM

The IKE on this thing is going to be incredible

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:17 AM

A purple barb wayyyy out there

6

That’s probably almost 200 miles from the center (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:27 AM

Recon turned south before reaching the edge it seems. Probably likely due to the land they were approaching

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 31-Jul-20 12:40 AM

https://twitter.com/1chordwonder/status/1289050276666773504?s=21

JS™ (@1ChordWonder)

@NHC_Atlantic Here we go again w/ the hyped up reports. Remember when hurricanes looked like hurricanes? Been a minute. They've been hyping for years. #Hurricanes4Profit #HurricaneIsaias #Isaias #NHC #ClimateChange #Globalwarming #SCAMS! #Trump #KAG #MAGA #WalkAway @realDon...

3

Sad

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 31-Jul-20 12:42 AM

Wow.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 12:50 AM

Shoo, keep it to #bad-stuff-man

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 31-Jul-20 12:59 AM

I will update the rest when I finish driving in 4 hours (on break now) but the title is updated

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 31-Jul-20 01:32 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289068172486868992?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

In just one single recon, #Isaias's minimum central pressure has fallen several millibars w/ extrapolated SLP now approaching 990mb >>> #Isaias is beginning to quickly intensify. The hot tower in #Isaias's upshear-left quadrant is apparently already having a big impact. Yikes...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 03:13 AM

HWRF is putting it into Florida now, but it is underdoing intensity so I'd take it with a grain of salt.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 05:26 AM

100mph peak now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 08:37 AM

Hot towers in upshear quad is a dead giveaway of RI. Which ships had less than 20% odds of yesterday

This guy is breaking all the rules even for 2020

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 08:47 AM

He's under some heavy shear right now. Appears to be hurt him a bit. But that should relax in 12-24 hours

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Jul-20 08:55 AM

cat 1 isaias

yes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 09:31 AM

looking ugly this morning. dry air and shear likely hurting the storm alot. ug-ly

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 09:53 AM

Yeah not looking healthy at all

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 31-Jul-20 10:00 AM

Not looking too hot, although that new CB is packing some solid SFC winds

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Jul-20 10:57 AM

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the Volusia-Brevard County Line. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. (edited)

Looks like the track of the storm for this advisory package shifted west...closer to the EURO and HMON models.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 11:06 AM

radar data from the aircraft and the Bahamas radar indicate about a 60-percent eyewall has formed in the northeastern semicircle, which is an indication that the cyclone is trying to reorganize. As a result, strengthening is still expected during the next day or so,

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 11:36 AM

KE vs intensity map shows its weakened to a TS

BUT, its clearly going to have some time to grow tonight as shear weakens

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 31-Jul-20 12:38 PM

possible to undergo RI again

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:43 PM

very intense storms near the eyewall, rotating around rapidly. shear and dry air holding back what would have been a clear RI phase. shear will abate in about 12 hours. we could see RI right before nears florida. however RI models are not favorable rigth now

if he can get those hot towers to rotation around to NW then W side, i would expect RI to be possible again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 12:49 PM

We have about a half eyewall currently looking at Bahamas radar

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 12:53 PM

the wind field is shrinkign rapidly and the convection as well, storm is about 1/2 the width it was 48 hours ago. this will help it survive the shear and organize despite the shear

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 01:24 PM

TPW imagery looks really good still. high water values still surround the south side of the eye for some dinstance. shear is only at the upper levels and there is plenty of room to grow and dry air infiltration is limited

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 31-Jul-20 01:41 PM

https://twitter.com/edwinjoel91/status/1288987540993847296

Torres (@edwinjoel91)

Family and friends have been sharing with me this pictures of the southwest area of the island. Electric poles are down and places than never experience flooding are flooded now. #Isaias #puertorico @adamonzon @iCyclone @JimCantore @weatherchannel @NickMerianos

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Jul-20 02:45 PM

ATCF back to 70 kts

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Jul-20 02:49 PM

large convective burst accompanied by lightning in Isaias' developing eyewall

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 31-Jul-20 02:58 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSCaribou/status/1289261263789289472

NWS Caribou (@NWSCaribou)

Our first of several Special Balloon Soundings is in the air. We along with all the other Upper Air Eastern Region offices are launching Special 6 hour Weather Balloons to support forecasting Hurricane #Isaias. Balloons will be launched for 06z/12z/18z/00z. #MEwx

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 31-Jul-20 02:59 PM

Not a good trend

2

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Jul-20 03:02 PM

Interesting

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Jul-20 03:02 PM

I’m seeing 65 knots from ATCF yet at 18z

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Jul-20 03:02 PM

I could feel some impacts here

This could be my third "right place, right time" tropical system intercept of this year

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 31-Jul-20 03:03 PM

According to MLive, so will I apparently

https://www.mlive.com/weather/2020/07/hurricane-isaias-will-bring-rain-to-michigan-but-in-a-way-you-may-not-expect.html

Hurricane Isaias will bring rain to Michigan, but in a way you may ...

Hurricanes influence weather systems hundreds of miles from their center.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Jul-20 03:38 PM

The wind radius is... interesting to say the least

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 03:39 PM

Aw, I love you too Isaias

It's a cardiod. That's neat.

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 31-Jul-20 03:42 PM

It's a cardiod. That's neat.

@Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) glad I’m not the only one that noticed that

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 04:02 PM

Had to dig into my memory of polar equations lol

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 05:07 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1289305792366157824?s=19

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for portions of the Florida east coast. Here are the 5 PM EDT Key Messages for #Isaias https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Jul-20 05:54 PM

985 last pass?

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 31-Jul-20 05:57 PM

yup

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Jul-20 06:34 PM

Looks like Isaias' eyewall is about to close completely

If not already

hot tower yet again in Isaias' eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 06:39 PM

This thing is getting ready to explode.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 07:06 PM

Two recons approaching the NW eye

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 07:20 PM

Two? Why two?

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 07:23 PM

https://tenor.com/view/two-heads-are-better-than-one-more-effective-stronger-useful-efficient-gif-13380203

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 31-Jul-20 07:28 PM

Still 985

70kts unflagged

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 07:39 PM

Are the different recons flying at different levels? NOAA3 picked up much lower winds than AF305 in the SE quadrant. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 09:44 PM

Geez that is a wiiiiiiiiiiiiide radius.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 31-Jul-20 09:52 PM

Some strong convection and lightning

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 09:54 PM

The lightning is far removed from the center, however.

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Jul-20 10:28 PM

Any recon in the storm now?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 31-Jul-20 10:44 PM

Still one plane bouncing around in there

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 31-Jul-20 10:45 PM

yep and this is gonna hit Fla

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 31-Jul-20 10:49 PM

At least Florida just gets the weak side

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 31-Jul-20 11:00 PM

We'll see if that holds true.

Nearly due west jog

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 01:35 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 973.6mb/ 77.0kt

Satcon agrees with Dvorak. This is a cat 2 on paper

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 02:58 AM

77 kt is not Cat 2 though?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 04:10 AM

That northern eyewall is strong just that it needs to close up.

For some reason it's going half-a-cane at an abnormally low latitude.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 01-Aug-20 10:41 AM

It's going to have the persistent shear to deal with all the way up most of Florida

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 10:58 AM

This shear is crushing our boy today. That eye is nearly exposed

2

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 01-Aug-20 11:07 AM

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1289573615357190146?s=21

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Hurricane #Isaias Advisory 18: Isaias Making Landfall On Northern Andros Island. Expected to Approach the Southeast Coast of Florida Later Today And Sunday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 01-Aug-20 11:12 AM

Down to 80mph

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 12:31 PM

Looks like

https://gyazo.com/e67a1a2727bf8a5a95bdedb8af6589c3

Gyazo

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 01-Aug-20 12:43 PM

Pretty distinct low level, but yeah, not great looking

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-Aug-20 12:58 PM

Hasn't been great looking since PR.

2

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 01-Aug-20 01:13 PM

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1289565613887836161/photo/1

Stormchasernick (@stormchasernick)

https://t.co/1JDP9To6ca

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 01-Aug-20 01:41 PM

75 MPH at 2 PM Advisory

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 78.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 03:31 PM

Center is at that black dot

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 05:46 PM

Isaias downgraded to a TS, brief reintensification back into a hurricane is expected

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:01 PM

Sudden convective burst

Shear is clearly weakening. And OHC here is huge

Water vapor looks amazing still. He's got potential

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:03 PM

Shear is clearly weakening. And OHC here is huge

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) True, since you have a creeping strong anticyclone inching forward towards the NNW (or mostly due N) towards Isaias; it'll become also influenced by it's trek over the Gulf Steam and it's 29-30C+ SSTs

Convective burst won't let up either

LOTS of lightning associated with it as well

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:09 PM

Do not let gaurd down. Climatology says this guy could still RI to a cat 4 before landfall if shear agrees. And it looks like it could

6

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:10 PM

To a CAT4?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 01-Aug-20 06:11 PM

That would truly be 2020ing

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 01-Aug-20 06:12 PM

If this thing goes to CAT 4 I'm gonna need a drink...

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:13 PM

If I see 115kt on a NHC advisory, then I'll have to take a shot.... of milk

But you get my drift

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:15 PM

Two words: hurricane bob

Borderline cat 1 to cat 4 in 36 hours thanks to boost from the jet stream

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 06:16 PM

What was VWS like with Hurricane Bob during it's RI episode?

Also, I thought Bob only peaked at 100kt

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 06:17 PM

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bob. Winds only rated at cat 3. But pressure was cat 4 worthy. Same with dvorak

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 01-Aug-20 06:46 PM

I think it's already a Cane again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 06:51 PM

Inner ring closed up on radar.

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 01-Aug-20 06:57 PM

No way it goes to Cat 4

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 07:01 PM

convection via convective burst has completely obscured the low level circulation

large amount of lightning is still present near the aforementioned center

Reminder: This is before

This is after/current

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 07:03 PM

lmao this is not becoming cat 4, maybe cat 2, yes, 3 by a long shot, but not 4.

It’s rapid reorganization is impressive though.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 07:04 PM

May hit Bimini

Isaias may be a hurricane again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 07:06 PM

Probably is.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Aug-20 07:14 PM

Northern eyewall looking better developed on radar now, if it can just wrap around again it might have a shot at RI

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 07:56 PM

lightning is still going strong

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1289699483689705474?s=21 Again, this is just impressive!

Sam Lillo (@splillo)

145 minutes for this <-70C central overcast to expand ~40,000km^2

6

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 01-Aug-20 08:29 PM

Still going strong with the lightning

LLC and MLC may be attempting to align at this time*

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 08:57 PM

Convective burst now fanning out. Great divergence aloft and high pressure

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 01-Aug-20 08:57 PM

isaias is a ts now

it died (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 08:57 PM

Best case scenario is it hits Florida with a glace to keep it weak

Satcon and adt lagging a couple hours behind. They will say it's a hurricane soon. We'll see what the next mission brings

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 01-Aug-20 09:01 PM

994 mb

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 01-Aug-20 09:03 PM

Pressure and winds will lag convection by 3-6 hours. We likely have hurricane again by 06z

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 01-Aug-20 09:04 PM

@Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) still a lot of dry air thru the profile

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 01-Aug-20 09:13 PM

Yup

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 01:41 AM

Towers continue. He's not dead yet

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 01:54 AM

What are the chances of a CAT1-2+ hurricane past east central FL?

If Isaias can take advantage of the general decrease in VWS via anticyclonic influence, gulf stream interactions, and with the jet streak up past GA?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 05:31 AM

NHC is no longer calling for it to rereach hurricane strength

It actually weakened again

All that convection did nothing for it because of all the shear

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 07:36 AM

Well, this is the most intense convective burst that ive seen associated with Isaias in a while

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 02-Aug-20 07:47 AM

The way this storm has been acting, I dont know if I should expect any surprises from it

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 08:50 AM

Looks like she’s still vertically tilted

Lowest pressure is 979 tho

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 02-Aug-20 09:19 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289902444780982273?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

This morning's recon mission into #Isaias finds that this storm is undergoing major structural reorganization, with #Isaias's low-level center attempting to reform downshear (NE) just east of Grand Bahama Island underneath the deep convective burst offshore SE Florida.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 02-Aug-20 09:32 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289911800851390464?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

While the environment for #Isaias remains pretty unfavorable atm, conditions are a bit more conducive for intensification today vs yesterday. While the shear will remain strong, #Isaias will be moving more // to the shear vector (SW-NE) & the air SW of #Isaias is less dry. ht...

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 02-Aug-20 11:31 AM

A buoy 34 nm from the center of the storm is recording sustained winds of 40 kt and gusts up to 48 kt.

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 11:36 AM

https://twitter.com/noaa_aoml/status/1289939309307375616?s=21

NOAA AOML (@NOAA_AOML)

NOAA reconnaissance continues into Tropical Storm Isaias. Measurements suggest that mid-level vertical wind shear has forced Isaias’ vortex to tilt with height, limiting potential intensification of the hurricane and exposing its core to dry air. https://t.co/6EsnPFhUAN

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 12:59 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 01:19 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1289973718165250050

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

A combo of @53rdWRS & radar observations critical in observing #Isaias this afternoon. Recon 850-hPa fix shows center still SW of mid-level vortex. However, separation has decreased & recon also found 63kt SFMR winds in the NW quad, suggesting intensification despite shear. ...

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 01:26 PM

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1289975304203595776

Mike Adcock (@MikeAdcockWx)

Recon measured a 62 kt wind at the surface with a dropsonde. #Isaías is making a push toward hurricane status again.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 02-Aug-20 02:29 PM

Holly Pajak (London, Ontario) 02-Aug-20 02:41 PM

Stumbled upon this gem

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 02-Aug-20 03:10 PM

No Cantore for this one?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 04:00 PM

https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1290014225960558592?s=19

Mike Adcock (@MikeAdcockWx)

TEAL 75 went through the center of Tropical Storm #Isaías. No significant changes. Extrapolated pressure was 994.5 hPa with SFMR surface winds of 57 kt. Peak flight level winds were 67 kt, which would approximately reduce to 54 kt. Waiting from dropsondes and vortex message...

Yeah it's not gonna rereach hurricane

It's gonna just move into a less and less favorable environment

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 02-Aug-20 04:10 PM

Pretty much every model has some restrengthening as it turns towards the Carolinas

Not too much of a stretch

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 04:18 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290008535477055488

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

@NCWeatherhound The Gulf Stream is obviously warm but the jet streak to the north of #Isaias will be ventilating it pretty efficiently in the last 12-18 hrs before it reaches NC & the shear will decrease, perhaps leading to a period of significant intensification right as it ...

@Garrett (Hillsdale MI) In the last day or so before landfall, it should become more favorable

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 02-Aug-20 04:57 PM

I don't know

I see the storm progress but it falls on itself everytime it tries to do something

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 02-Aug-20 05:23 PM

Hurricane watches up here now

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 05:32 PM

Isaias seems to be holding it's know quite well

Deep convection is attempting to obscure the LLC

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 05:54 PM

Down to 991

It's trying

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 02-Aug-20 05:54 PM

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 06:21 PM

Lookin healthier

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 06:27 PM

Close to a hurricane again. Do not be surprised if the eye gets wrapped again once shear lines up with motion

The OHC is sti very warm all the way to NC. Cat 2 is possible even as a lopsided freak

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 06:29 PM

May become less lopsided as it treks more NNE towards SC/NC border

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 06:30 PM

Recon is about to see if there's a full eye in a second

987! (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 06:46 PM

Nevermind lol

Recon is messed up

It just got a 979 reading

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 06:49 PM

Probably between 985-991mb

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 07:16 PM

dropsonde would support 993mb

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 07:37 PM

2 new hot towers closer to the center (edited)

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 08:19 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxkLe_86-rU

Tropical Tidbits

Isaias Changing Little in Strength as it Tracks Along the Florida C...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be interpreted as such. Wh...

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 08:56 PM

Recon finding hurricane force winds

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 09:26 PM

https://twitter.com/mikeremaley1/status/1290092304796008448

Mike (@mikeremaley1)

#nerdtweet Recent microwave imagery passes over TS #isaias Show a more well-defined banding structure this evening with hints Of what could be a mid level eye like structure. This is pretty coherent With radar and aircraft reconnaissance observations.

several hot towers rotating upshear with 2 attempts at banding

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Aug-20 09:38 PM

Isaias: the storm that just won’t quit.

And won’t give up.

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 02-Aug-20 09:47 PM

8

Oh shit Jim is here folks

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:07 PM

CIMSS shear forecast favorable (but not very favorable for the next 24 hours)

meaning - based on shear alone it should drop 4-12 mb int he next 24 hours

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 02-Aug-20 11:11 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:11 PM

the kinetic energy models actually have its at its strongest yet, 1/2 way to a cat 2 (based only on KE)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Aug-20 11:14 PM

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) Would you favor that center relocation has occurred or the LLC and MLC have finally aligned?

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 02-Aug-20 11:15 PM

new microwave

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:16 PM

under high velocity shear and dry air intrusion, much more likely it relocated than aligned

if you look at the PWET maps, the low level circulation is over vero beach right now

storms finaly making it to the NW quad. looks like an eye is trying to reform, finally

if we're all biting our nails and watching the storm this closely when its a strong ts / cat 1, what is the hype going to be like when we have a legit monster on our hands? not just some freak storm that wont' die? cough hanna

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 02-Aug-20 11:28 PM

Recon had a 63 kt surface reading

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 02-Aug-20 11:37 PM

dry air turns isaias into a newt isaias: IT GOT BETTER

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 02-Aug-20 11:41 PM

Center relocation in real time

John Day (IA) 03-Aug-20 02:08 AM

models are showing favorable shear profiles for supercells / tors as the storm makes landfall

North central NC Monday night

hwrf develops an intense rain band and what looks to be embedded sups in that area

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:06 AM

...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA...

8

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 03-Aug-20 07:44 AM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1290156982595465216

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

This is not just a mid-level radar feature. In their last fix at 0430 UTC before flying home @53rdWRS also confirmed an eyewall was developing with #Isaias (albeit open to the southeast).

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:50 AM

strong KE with this guy still: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/mpswtcke/2020al09_mpswtcke_202008031200.gif

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 09:07 AM

but geeze. so much dry air infiltration into the eye its gross. all the moisture is 50+miles outside the core

Max (Saint John, NB) 03-Aug-20 09:21 AM

isaias is a fucking trooper

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:46 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290261891105697794

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

This morning's recon mission into #Isaias finds it has weakened considerably overnight, the estimated central pressure is up to ~1001mb. #Isaias also looks very ragged on IR, likely ingested some dry air into its core. Certainly good news for the Carolinas. #ncwx #scwx

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 11:46 AM

Whut?

"Weakened considerably?"

Looks worse for sure but doubt it weakened that much. Pressure was dropping a millibar a pass down to 994 earlier. (edited)

Not sure if this is trustworthy.

NHC put it at 998 with winds still at 60 kts which seems correct to me, probably that the system's structure is so scattered recon has a hard time finding the "true" maximums

The fact the storm is this strong while being constantly ripped apart and scattered around should be considered such a feat that it is worthy of intense study. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 12:09 PM

NHC calling for it to go Cat 1 right before landfall, and did say they expect another convective burst to happen soon to push it back up there. There is this string of hot towers popping up and if they hold they could be the start of it

Bud [whoosh] (Chicagoland, IL) 03-Aug-20 12:31 PM

indeed

the system is due for another re-organization phase shortly if it holds true to form. That may already be underway based on recent radar and recon data showing a slight eastward shift in the center position.

90 minutes ago

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 12:58 PM

It's holding well.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 01:13 PM

Seems like another ongoing CB is occuring now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 01:25 PM

yeah radar looked like the center hopped a couple hours ago.

it's slowly hopping toward the convection every few hours

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 01:52 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290343903976140800?s=19

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

#Isaias’s presentation on radar is improving dramatically with a mid level eye feature starting to become evident on the Charleston, SC radar, corroborating recent recon measurements of intensification (yet again). I swear, this storm is so bi-polar #ncwx #scwx https://t.c...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 01:53 PM

its the big storm that couldn't

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 02:22 PM

hunters just had a (bad) wind reading of 120 kts. very bad i guess

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 02:48 PM

i think one thing we're forgetting is that due to the speed of this guy, along with the constructive shear vector, it will likely maintain strong TS force winds all the way to canada, through all the major east coast metros. DC, philly, NYC, boston could all get major wind damage and flash floods

8-12" of rain and then some 60mph gusts will knock out alot of power and down trees

this is gonna be like a 2 day derecho from hell

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:18 PM

Wasn't Nate also kinda the same? Where it was disorganized but hurricane-strength due to it's forward speed and it's effects were more akin to a derecho?

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:29 PM

Got a random sounding out of Long Island when Isaias is coming through, and WOW.

2

All I can say there is WOW

HWRF sim reflectivity around the same time

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:30 PM

Is that a tropical system or a freaking high CAPE supercell-in-front-of-derecho setup?

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:30 PM

leaning towards the last one

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:32 PM

Tornadoes are going to be a huge impact with this one, might end up being the biggest tornado outbreak the NE region has seen if it's entire outer squall ends up being supes

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 03:36 PM

And also, it might not.

Models havent exactly 100% agreed so far

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:37 PM

Hence why I said "might"

The 12z HWRF isn't as supercell happy, that one image is from 06z (edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:41 PM

Both the 12z and 18z HRRR show a line of supercells on that band, but to be fair it's also the HRRR

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 03:41 PM

as this transitions from a tropical system to extratropical, HRRR and NAM are now our friends

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:41 PM

Here's a few frames later

NAM3KM shows a similar situation, but looks much weaker on the outer bands, and more messy

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 03:42 PM

the first 120 degrees of the storm (north to ESE of the center) are the most dangerous for tornado setups. this one will likely be one of those. the jet will couple /w the storms and help create numerous mini-supers within the bands

https://m2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2020080312/033/stp.us_ne.png

3

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 03:49 PM

Yeesh

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:49 PM

Seems to be reorganizing and is also getting that "east coaster" look

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:50 PM

HRW ARW seems on board with the HRRR

ARW sounding over long island an hour before the band hits

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 03:51 PM

Wow

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 03-Aug-20 03:51 PM

NSSL sounding from almost the same location

HRRR sounding, slightly east, on the eastern tip of long island at the same time as the rest

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 03:54 PM

The whole storm acting with the jet and the mountainous terrain in the NE is really gonna spin up some tors. That jet is roaring today, Mt Washington is recording 70-75 mph gusts.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 03:55 PM

https://twitter.com/medwick/status/1290363074906652674

Gannon Medwick WECT (@medwick)

The locally infamous KLTX-Wilmington Doppler Radar blockage is about to gain even more notoriety as the core of #Isaias moves right into it. A stand of tall trees make it tough for KLTX to fully scan storms near the Grand Strand. Ongoing problem...

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 04:00 PM

Gannon is the man

And he is spot on about LTX

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1385.html

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1385

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 04:08 PM

En route to KLTX with a chainsaw, ready to down some trees

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 04:10 PM

Right off highway 17 near Shallotte

Let's hope they keep coms with the radar, that also is a common issue.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 04:10 PM

iirc that was an issue with Florence

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 04:42 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1290387457339305984

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina and South Carolina until 2 AM EDT

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:39 PM

No pictures with Jim due to Covid

Super lame

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

LOL! Whatever....

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

They had a cop stopping people e

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

whut?

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

Thanks China

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

No kidding!

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

Yeah fuckin retarded

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

Yeah thanks

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:40 PM

But makes sense

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:41 PM

waves are certainly picking up.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

Gonna be a long night.

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

Got the gen gassed up

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

That's good.

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

I purchased a house literally two weeks ago lol

1

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

Your guys' take on the tornado risk with Iasias?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:42 PM

All the towers ready to go?

LOL omg

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:43 PM

Yes sir gassed up and ready at all transmitters. All stations should stay on the air

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:43 PM

Just like what's his name who bought a house ont he beach or condo was it and Florence hit?

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 05:44 PM

Yeah my buddy Johnny just got a boat lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 05:44 PM

lol lol

oh man you knew doing this at this time just paints a target on you.

lol

Really, I'm so sorry.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 05:56 PM

Your guys' take on the tornado risk with Iasias?

@Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) I'm liking it. 5% across the entire eastern seaboard tonight into tomorrow. Good moisture, good shear, jet stream is gonna be helping a lot. CAMS produce a lot of potential tors over new england

3

if conditions set up right, it could be worth a 10% today from NJ coast up to mass. will depend alot on how the bands setup over the ocean and roll onshore

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 05:59 PM

it would not be surprising then to see multiple tornado watches come in the next day or so along the East Coast

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:00 PM

we already got one in NC. they will be up all night long i bet. there is no stable layer during a hurricane, so tors can occur overnight

1

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 06:00 PM

easier to detect too with the Dual-Pol aspect

I would think

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:01 PM

the meso-vorticies are much smaller than normal super cells, so even with dual pol they can be hard to spot, but spotting has improved

1

when cristobol came onshore, there was a short period were like 20 tornado warnigns had to go up, because it timed with daytime heating so perfectly. however only a few tornadoes came otu of him

strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20%* -NHC

1

gusts well above hurricane force will be possible well into the northeast coast

new convection close to the eye is firing, if eye reconstruction is done, we could see a final burst of intensification right before landfall, as NHC suggsted

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 06:20 PM

How does it look for me here in York

I haven't had the chance to look at models yet

Shrimpfest imminent

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 06:26 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290413368025784320?s=19

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

As others have noted, the center of #Isaias is passing directly over a buoy just offshore the SC coast. Surface pressure at this buoy (~991mb) is already lower than the most recent NHC advisory & it's still rapidly falling; #Isaias is likely a hurricane. #ncwx #scwx https://...

3

I agree with Webb 100%

Pressure at buoy #41004 is still falling

getting ready to drip below 990mb

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 06:30 PM

Gonna have to change the axis soon

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 06:44 PM

Impressive band moving north towards Wilmington NC

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 06:54 PM

41004 now at 988.8

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:54 PM

How does it look for me here in York

@Hunter Hollman (York, PA) York is very vulnerable to flash flooding. 8-12" in 24 hours is a bad deal

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 06:55 PM

8-12" is what we'll be seeing?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:56 PM

Models call for 6-10 but based on climatology I'm well aware of how those mountains can boost rainfall

Don't be shocked if some little mountain town in eastern PA gets wrecked by 12"

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 06:56 PM

Yikes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 06:57 PM

Total water levels are very high for this storm. And since it's still August ambient moisture is very high

If this was an October storm you'd have a lot of cold air over Western PA

Carol, Agnes come to mind. So definitely be careful in the mountains

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 07:00 PM

I'll be sure to keep a close eye on any flooding

Thanks for the info

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:14 PM

The show isn't over yet guys. Ships model sti gave this a 16% chance of cat 2 landfall last run

So at the least we'll have something comparable to Hanna

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 07:16 PM

min. pressure measured from buoy 41004 has a ~989mb pressure w/ a ~30kt wind

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 07:19 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1290426651298291712

NWS Wilmington NC (@NWSWilmingtonNC)

Wind gust to 67 mph reported recently at the Weatherflow station in Winyah Bay just east of Georgetown, SC #scwx

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 07:23 PM

70kt SFMR, ~986mb extrapolated

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:23 PM

As nhc said. Expect gusts to be a full category higher than normal due to coupling with jet stream. Will happen in squalls due to best down mix

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 07:26 PM

It's a cane again definitely

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 07:26 PM

The current structure on IR is already indicative of baroclinic forcing

Giving that pre-landfall boost the NHC's been talking up

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:30 PM

Baroclinic forcing is not a new idea, but with Hanna and isi both having it, it's totally the new 2020 catchphrase

It's so nice for severe weather meteorology to overlap with tropical met.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 07:31 PM

2019 Humberto was baroclinic forcing to the max

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:32 PM

It's been pretty uncommon until recent. I wonder if it was just better forecasting or climate change

For example, would major storms like hurricane bob be a baroclinic nightmare if we forecasted him today?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 07:42 PM

Per recon vortex, eye is open from the SE to the E. Also 37 miles in diameter

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 07:45 PM

H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 69kts (79.4mph

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:48 PM

We have got a cane

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM

Yup, 65kt/988mb

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM

It's had 80+ kts at 10000 feet for some time now. Not surprised to see it mix down

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:49 PM

The update while this met was on the air, he was like "woah what happened"

lol

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1290434713103020034

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

Tornado Warning including Oak Island NC, Boiling Spring Lakes NC, Saint James NC until 8:15 PM EDT

First nader up as well

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 07:50 PM

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 07:57 PM

Tornado on the ground

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:02 PM

Whats the record for tropical storm based tors? 136? Could be a busy two days

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 08:04 PM

Looks like Ivan with 120?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:04 PM

I see Ivan at 117 so sure

This is a spot on setup for hurricane based tors. Ivan's tors killed 7 people. No joke

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 08:07 PM

The line of shrimp HRRR consistently shows has me a little scared

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:09 PM

new tornado watch forthcoming

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 08:09 PM

ugh

Holy warning batman

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 08:13 PM

https://tenor.com/view/shang-tsung-it-has-begun-windy-gif-12038108

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:38 PM

Current radar of Isaias.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 03-Aug-20 08:41 PM

https://twitter.com/medwick/status/1290363074906652674

Gannon Medwick WECT (@medwick)

The locally infamous KLTX-Wilmington Doppler Radar blockage is about to gain even more notoriety as the core of #Isaias moves right into it. A stand of tall trees make it tough for KLTX to fully scan storms near the Grand Strand. Ongoing problem...

^ worth noting

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:42 PM

yes

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 08:42 PM

Thank god for the environmentalists that won't let NWS cut the trees

IDK how I would live without a fuckin tree

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 08:47 PM

ilmchat 2020/08/03 8:13 PM iembot Bald Head Island [Brunswick Co, NC] 911 CALL CENTER reports TORNADO at 3 Aug, 7:55 PM EDT -- REPORT RELAYED BY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER. NO OTHER DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 08:48 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1290449552311492608

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina until 6 AM EDT

60/20 TOA

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Aug-20 08:49 PM

I like how that word looks in all caps.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 08:52 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/740008481561509948/recon_AF305-2509A-ISAIAS_zoom.png

3

Woah

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 08:53 PM

Just below 120kt FL wind

~75kt peak SFMR

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 08:54 PM

It was 117

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1290451941995225088

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

Here's the latest on #Isaias #cltwx #ncwx #scwx #obx

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290451040714850304

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

Recon finding flight level winds of nearly 120 knots with SFMR of 75 knots (85 mph) in #Isaias Boy this is escalating quickly.... #ncwx #scwx

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias. SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

4

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 08:59 PM

Jesus 140 MPH flight level, thats nuts

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM

wow

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM

How you holding up Nick?

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM

Chillin

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM

Pretty sure there was a CC drop with that TOR warning in your city though

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:00 PM

Yes sir

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeiS1iCVoAA6Z57?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Got my battlestation up and running

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 09:01 PM

Same here, except replace that stream of WWAY with WECT

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:01 PM

I have ECT on in the livingroom

We carry WWAY on the radio station I work for so I must watch......

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:01 PM

Isaias is gonna be a rough ride for the Eastcoast

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:02 PM

85MPH winds according to NHC

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:02 PM

We are almost done with it.

Here that is

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 03-Aug-20 09:02 PM

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1290450477516312577

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

What's the record for furthest south a sting jet has ever been observed? #AskingForAnIsaias

Perhaps there's a Sting jet that's the cause behind the super strong winds

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:03 PM

At 7:55 PM EDT, 1 ESE Bald Head Island [Brunswick Co, NC] SOCIAL MEDIA reports TORNADO. APPARENT TORNADO DAMAGE REPORT FROM A SKYWARN SPOTTER OF A ROOF TORN OFF OF A HOUSE OFF OF DOGWOOD RIDGE ROAD IN BALD HEAD ISLAND, NC.

2

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 03-Aug-20 09:04 PM

Sounds like a siggy

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:05 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290453378221432836?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

The Wilmington, NC radar is picking up on winds of 120 mph ~4000ft off the surface in the NE quad of #Isaias. Standard reduction would put this somewhere in the ballpark of 75-80 knots (85-90 mph), an upper end category 1 hurricane. #Isaias is intensifying in a hurry. #ncwx

5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:09 PM

Yes you can see it on radar and sat. It's getting ti's act together.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 09:13 PM

i fuckin told yall

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:14 PM

87 MPH at Frying pan

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:15 PM

Literally played with us for 4 days then at the last few hours before landfall he hit the button

3

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:15 PM

I knew this was gonna happen

I just felt it lmao (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 09:17 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:18 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/485127058863685633/740014788830298187/recon_AF305-2509A-ISAIAS_dropsonde4_20200804-0041.png

East eyewall dropsonde

Those winds are very close to the surface.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:19 PM

Garden City SC going underwater. Nothing new to that. Same thing happened in Dorian. I was there for that.

https://twitter.com/AnjaliPatelTV/status/1290444999100964866

Anjali Patel WPDE (@AnjaliPatelTV)

Garden City Beach is engulfed. @wpdeabc15

I bet it's high tide or coming up to it.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:25 PM

Buoy 41013 at 42 knots sustained gusting to 54 kts

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:26 PM

93 gust at frying pan

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:26 PM

woah getting up there.

https://twitter.com/CharlesPeekWX/status/1290445235831607298?s=20

Charles Peek (@CharlesPeekWX)

Storm surge from #hurricaneIsaias coming up to houses and into parking lots in Garden City, SC. @weatherchannel @NWSWilmingtonNC #scwx https://t.co/GrnImTsJE3

What there was a tornado in GC SC? https://twitter.com/JessicaDobsonWX/status/1290459296417939456

Jessica Dobson (@JessicaDobsonWX)

Possible tornado damage in Garden City Beach from Shawn Maltba. #scwx #isaias @jamiearnoldWMBF

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:30 PM

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1290459724849324033?s=21

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

A swath of ferocious winds possibly gusting over 100 mph (purple colors) is nearing Wilmington, NC and the coastline surrounding Cape Fear very quickly. Do not be outside. https://t.co/88bbJhMHMg

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:30 PM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1290459747125166081

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

9:20 pm. We seem to be near center of #Hurricane #ISAIAS's broad center in North #MyrtleBeach. Wind not too bad, but storm surge covering beach & piers, & inundating S Ocean Blvd. https://t.co/mtgLA5jt07

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 09:33 PM

https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1290457587264217088/photo/1

Alan Gerard (@Wxmanms1)

Springmaid Pier tidal gauge near Myrtle Beach now up to 4.58 feet MHHW with more than 4 foot of surge above expected astronomical tide. NWS ILM notes it is at 3rd highest level observed on record. #Isaias

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:41 PM

Raliegh never had one as far as I know today.

3

I'd say bad report.

Besides that it's nightime there now.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:44 PM

https://twitter.com/JasonMHouck/status/1290459329401937923?s=20

Jason Houck (@JasonMHouck)

@wxbrad flooding on South Ocean Boulevard in Myrtle Beach near Family Kingdom @myhorrynews

some cool convection is building up in the eastern quadrant of Isaias

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 09:44 PM

what I am noticing too

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:45 PM

Honestly, that may help those 100kt+ velocity bins reach closer to the surface

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:45 PM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1290462931394732034/photo/1

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

9:40 pm. My location in North #MyrtleBeach in relation to #Hurricane #ISAIAS. Leading edge was tame; radar & buoy data suggest SW eyewall (on backside) is vigorous, so I’m staying here. Don’t want to go further E when the action’s on W side. P.S. Significant storm surge here....

Storm surge really coming in

https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1290463459654742022

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

Major storm surge occurring in Cherry Grove currently!!!!!!

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM

latest dropsonde found a ~100kt wind at the lowest 500m

and ~90kt at the lowest 150m

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM

I think a run at cat 2 is definitely happening

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM

I agree

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:46 PM

Very thankful this doesn't have more time over the water then it does

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 09:47 PM

could be the most lopsided category 2 hurricane we have seen in some time

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:47 PM

Sudden RI into a major cane before landfall would be catastrophic but is thankfully super unlikely

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:48 PM

https://twitter.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1290460993995378689/photo/1

Ethan Clark wx (@EthanClarkWX)

Surge is up to 4ft now in the backyard. #ncwx #Isaias

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 09:51 PM

Eye becoming more apparent on radar.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:51 PM

yesssss oh yess.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Recon is hitting some super intense winds rn

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 09:54 PM

95kt+ FL winds

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 09:56 PM

@spotternetwork: Spotr 2 miles ENE of NORTH MYRTLE BEACH, SC @ 01:49 UTC FFlood>-Rapidly rising storm surge across a number of streets in Cherry Grove. 22n

Tornado warning in Wilmington NC (edited)

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 09:56 PM

Tornado warning for me

here we go

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 09:57 PM

https://twitter.com/RobMarciano/status/1290464944928980993

Rob Marciano (@RobMarciano)

Not quite usable audio but I tried

‍♂️ #Isaias

https://t.co/M1nUBjN2Hf

It's on the ground @Nick (Wilmington, NC)

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:02 PM

Gonna stay south of me

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:03 PM

yeah I see it

https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1290468102472425473/photo/1

Jesse Ferrell (@WeatherMatrix)

Springmaid Pier, SC had a storm surge of 4.26' earlier this evening from #Isaias

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 10:04 PM

983!

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:05 PM

LM continues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 0.00 IN] for Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender [NC] till 10:30 PM ED

On the ground

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:05 PM

https://twitter.com/RobMarciano/status/1290458575521939457

Rob Marciano (@RobMarciano)

Eyewall of #HurricaneIsaias ripping into #CarolinaBeach https://t.co/GjkaJ3BTzf

Likes

178

Chris Jackson is safe.

https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1290469475075198977

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

@theG57 Yeah on dry ground... elevated. About 50’ in the sky. The only garage in Cherry Grove

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1290470218918178818

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

Something has happened to the wind readings from our weather station but the barometer is kicking. The eye is almost right over the location - will be interesting to see how low it goes here. It’s an RM Young barometer - top of the line.

3

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 10:11 PM

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1290469001907384322?s=20

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

Current camera on the Oak Island, NC Pier. #ncwx #Isaias https://t.co/JczbdR1tya

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:11 PM

seems something got hit.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 03-Aug-20 10:12 PM

Isaias seems to be making landfall right now just east of Myrtle Beach

based on radar

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:13 PM

Looks like Carolina shores NC

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 03-Aug-20 10:13 PM

yep

Chris said it did intensify

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:20 PM

https://twitter.com/WeatherReMarks/status/1290471193309597697

WeatherReMarks (@WeatherReMarks)

Buoy 41013 located 10mi WSW of Frying Pan Shoals, NC reporting 18.7 foot waves! @spann @JimCantore #NCwx #HurricaneIsaias

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 10:24 PM

https://twitter.com/brandonwxal/status/1290472503102648328

Brandon Payne (@brandonwxal)

Brunswick County dispatch reporting a neighborhood struck by a tornado in Leland NC #ncwx

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 10:24 PM

F. Eye Character: Not Available G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles)

Latest vortex message from recon. (edited)

Also pegs it at 988 mb

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:28 PM

97 MPH at fryingpan

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 10:43 PM

https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/1290477696670040064

Simon Brewer (@SimonStormRider)

A few stars or planets are visible in cloud breaks in eye of #Isaias

3

https://twitter.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1290476480837763074?s=19

Ethan Clark wx (@EthanClarkWX)

Moon the eye is here can also see star 987MB! #ncwx #Isaias @WRALAimee @medwick @JimCantore @katcampbellwx @MarkBoyleTV

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 03-Aug-20 10:52 PM

Surprised they didnt change the winds considering the reports

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 03-Aug-20 10:52 PM

Honestly thought Isaias would squeeze out 80-85kt

Considering recon and radar data

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 10:52 PM

At this point it's not really gonna change anything

4

Power flashes being reported at Carolina Beach

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 10:59 PM

https://twitter.com/112MPH_EF1/status/1290480988607242240?s=19

Marios_WX (@112MPH_EF1)

Public safety scanner for Brunswick just reported buildings destroyed in Belville and Waterford

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 11:01 PM

Building literally got submerged in water

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 03-Aug-20 11:02 PM

If we had a random 1,000 ft tower or hill out there somewhere would be incredible to see the gusts just above the surface

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 11:09 PM

https://twitter.com/jeff_piotrowski/status/1290484829822148612?s=21

Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski)

FD reports 4’ storm surge Oak Island NC. A number of calls for rescue in homes people are moving to second floors. #ncwx #HurricaneIsaias

5

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:13 PM

Winds gusting to 20 here north of ILM

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 11:14 PM

another hurricane is coming, warnings are issued well in advance People:"We'll be fine" Hurricane: Hits People:

2

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:14 PM

literally everyone here

Marty (NW TN) 03-Aug-20 11:15 PM

is landfall now a better thing for the mid atlantic and NE tomorrow or is it probably not going to matter at this point

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 11:16 PM

"I can stay in my house on the shore" 4 foot storm surge (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 03-Aug-20 11:17 PM

We have landfall https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TCUAT4&e=202008040315

IEM :: TCU from NWS AT4

TCU issued by NWS AT4 at 04 Aug 2020 03:15 UTC

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 03-Aug-20 11:29 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290489618412888065?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

For the first time in my life, I can say I’m in the eye of a hurricane. It’s pretty awe inspiring and definitely not what I expected. Eerily still and calm here, encountered some dense fog on the edge of the eye. #lifegoals #HurricaneIsaias #ISAIAS #ncwx #scwx

https://twitter.com/EthanClarkWX/status/1290490105245741063

Ethan Clark wx (@EthanClarkWX)

Update massive fire on Ocean Isle https://t.co/nXhboNoyUU

6

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 03-Aug-20 11:31 PM

I don't really care for chasing hurricanes but for 2 things, chasing minisups/sups in the bands, and I would really like to experience a major eye with stadium effect once in my life.

The rest just seems like annoying massive amounts of rain, and non tornadic severe storms. Not even much lightning often (edited)

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:34 PM

Damn power flickering on and off here big time

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 03-Aug-20 11:38 PM

67 mph gusts being recorded at a weather station in Wilmington.

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:38 PM

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNCWILMI332

Personal Weather Station Dashboard | Weather Underground

Weather Underground provides local & long-range weather forecasts, weather reports, maps & tropical weather conditions for locations worldwide.

Here is my station

Just clocked a 23 MPH gust

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 11:39 PM

Recon going in for another pass

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 11:42 PM

wow thats a lot of 105k flight level winds

solid 75kt+ all throught he onshore quad (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 03-Aug-20 11:47 PM

https://twitter.com/ethanclarkwx/status/1290493152785129474?s=21

Ethan Clark wx (@EthanClarkWX)

Developing Flames are shooting 20 to 30 feet into the air now! Likely many houses involved. Hopefully everyone got out safely! #ncwx #Isaias

2

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 11:48 PM

Surge in Ocean Isle is bad

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:49 PM

911 service suspended in New Hanover

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 03-Aug-20 11:50 PM

Sounds like Elizabeth City got hit by a tornado

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 03-Aug-20 11:52 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/mpswtcke/2020al09_mpswtcke_202008040300.gif

impressive peaking of KE

its basically a cat 2 (minus a few mph)

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 03-Aug-20 11:54 PM

I live at the yellow box and still have power

I guess you can say I have been lucky so far

?

Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK) 04-Aug-20 12:02 AM

https://m.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/10120 Scanner reporting structure fires

Brunswick County Fire and Rescue Live Audio Feed

Brunswick County Fire and Rescue Live Audio Feed on Broadcastify.com

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:02 AM

5

Oak island

Multiple house fires crews cant get over the road

4

Jesus christ that's the fire from across the beach

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 12:06 AM

https://twitter.com/DarrenGMiller/status/1290495302256869382

Darren Miller (@DarrenGMiller)

Large fire at W 4th St & Driftwood Dr. Ocean Isle Beach. According to Brunswick County Commisioner & Fire Dept. Facebook pages, multiple homes fully involved, building collapse. Requesting multiple unit assistance from Horry County and elsewhere. #Isaias

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 12:12 AM

Buoy 41038 reporting a 134 mph gust

But only 46 mph sustained so may not be accurate

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 12:13 AM

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1290497952926953473

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

Guessing this is an error or the Wrightsville buoy got hit by a waterspout. #Isaias #ncwx

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 12:28 AM

Apparently that buoy 41038 did the same exact thing with the same exact wind gust speed in Florence. Likely some complicated technical glitch

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:29 AM

and power is out

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 12:29 AM

F

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 12:30 AM

https://twitter.com/PatrickPowell/status/1040408046810357760?s=20

Patrick Powell (@PatrickPowell)

1 hour ago, Wrightsville Beach Nearshore Buoy (Station 41038) had a wind gust to 134 mph (116.6 knots). This Buoy is just ahead of Hurricane Florence. Data here... https://t.co/Il3I6sPLnq

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:30 AM

But the gen is up

and ATT is still up

HYPE

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:35 AM

eyewall looks better now than it did offshore

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 12:38 AM

https://twitter.com/SVNewsAlerts/status/1290499628765450240

SV News 🚨 (@SVNewsAlerts)

#BREAKING - #Video of a large fire in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina as #HurricaneIsaias makes landfall. Reports that it is a house on fire in cherry grove on 46th street. https://t.co/eufRKYFCdX

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 12:44 AM

https://twitter.com/hcfirerescue/status/1290507775966154754?s=21

Horry SC Fire Rescue (@hcfirerescue)

At approximately 11:40 p.m., there were reports of multiple structure fires in the area of Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina. Horry County Fire Rescue is providing multiple units to help in response. #HCFR

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 12:46 AM

Jesus

That's terrible

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:49 AM

looks like max rainfall so far is 5-6 inches in wilmington areas. if it stays at or below that going north it will help stop too much flooding. anything more than 6 and we'll have issues

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 12:51 AM

Without fireboats, they're done for. Insurance, rebuild, construction companies will do well.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:55 AM

AIG lost 600M$ last quarter

a big insurance year for storms could lead to mass backruptcies from insurance companies

AIG and several others had to be bailed out after katrina, and again in 2008 from the housing fallout

AIG is too big to fail, i'm sure they would just bail them out again

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 12:57 AM

They've got to be able to just charge these rich guys that build houses on sticks, on the ocean, a major premium to cover.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:58 AM

that would be cost prohibitive to the seaside communities, they would become ghost-towns. the feds would rather pay the insurance for the rich poeple

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 12:58 AM

Or is it like everything else, where it would cost you or me a few grand to insure a car, but rich guys can insure a beach house for like 15 bucks? That happens, too.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:59 AM

oh yeah, flood insurance isn't cheap, but its like 28x cheaper than it should be for coastal homes

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:01 AM

Then the insurance companies get to argue over if the loss is because of a flood, or a fire. The US Government is the only provider of flood insurance, though, aren't they?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:01 AM

for homes, yes. but it's usually through a secondary vendor like AIG

the feds rarely do anything themselves anymore. 'small government' and all that jazz

they don't even do emergency management in house anymore at the federal level after the fact. once you're like 1 month post-disaster, it's all outsourced to for-profits

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:04 AM

Well, it seems that it used to be that the Government couldn't run any sort of business without messing it up, and the private companies were better at it. Now days, it seems like both the Government and the businesses are both incompetent.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:06 AM

the govenrment used to be pretty good at big jobs. the hoover dam, defense production act. interstate system. then it got stripped down and de-funded. working on shoe-strings they had to start cutting corners and things went to hell. then they privatized it, increased teh budgets, and lets for-profits get away with huge profits while doing a job that was just as shit as the under-funded feds, or worse

don't get me started on NWS underfunding in the 2000's

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:09 AM

I remember for years, the biggest examples were Amtrak, the USPS, and Medicare. The Federal Government managed, over the course of a decade, to bankrupt the only nationwide passenger train system, a major parcel delivery service, and a health insurance provider. 3 Things that shouldn't be capable of being bankrupted, two of them defacto monopolies.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:11 AM

they were intentionally mis-managed in order to privatize them. its a pretty common tactic. defund, deregulate, privatize.

same thing they did to british railroads. defunded, went to shit. privatized. got WORSE. had to be bought by the goverment. is good again

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:12 AM

holly crap! https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1290515352699494402

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

Not good in Wilmington NC!!!! https://t.co/6CDrQWOMyA

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 01:13 AM

https://twitter.com/MetalMastodon/status/1290515992918085632?s=20

MetalMastodon (@MetalMastodon)

@hurricanetrack I always said Wilmington would make a great Venice.

Man, that is not good

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:14 AM

does that river ever NOT flood from a cat 1/2?

same deal with matthew and florence

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:14 AM

nope the lower streets always flood.

Specially on that boardwalk

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM

100%. It's pretty dependable that way.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM

Round 2 of eyewall https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1290496929554546689

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

11:50 pm. Going back in... Ocean Isle Beach #NorthCarolina #Hurricane #ISAIAS https://t.co/6cIP4tsWpu

Retweets

106

Likes

439

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM

gonna be a long night. gonna wake up /w the storm north of norfolk probably, tors up the del-mar-va

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM

Mark Sudduth is one of my heroes. Dude is so cool.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM

very

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:15 AM

Umm it’s called water street for a reason

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM

How's the southern eyewall treating you Nick?

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM

He's the reason I've always wanted to build a hurricane truck.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM

lol

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM

Getting slammed son

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:16 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM

Twice in 2 yrs Nick. Doing pretty good.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM

Wind gusts near 70 mph there once again, can't catch a break, just get through this and congratulations, you've survived yet another hurricane (edited)

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM

I have lived in Wilmington 3 years. We have had three hurricanes

#winning

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM

lol

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:17 AM

Hurricanes make for great medium-duration emergencies.

Truly electric.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 01:18 AM

That's one way to look at it haha

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:18 AM

Worst impacts i got here were from Irma in my lifetime with 60 or so mph wind gusts, although Opal gave 75 mph wind gusts near here in '95

Can't imagine sustained 80-85 mph winds and wind gusts of over 100

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM

My weather station lost power for a few minutes during the generator switch but I believe I hit tropical storm gusts

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM

Dude, it's wicked and scary, but then life-affirming.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM

oh it's fun-ish like going threw a carwash with winds, for hours.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:19 AM

Mother nature don't sleep

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM

It's putting yourself not only in conditions that are trying to kill you, but for extended periods of time.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM

Shouldn't expect less when you got like 400-500 0-1km SRH sitting there, practically anything in this environment is gonna spin

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM

Station reported a gust of 22.8 as high. Obviously way low

I guess that’s what cheap equipment gets you

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:20 AM

yeah don't trust that

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM

Oh that's a big CC drop now

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM

Wasn't there a 130ish gust earlier?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM

Wouldn't wanna be near Windsor rn

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM

it's doens't save the highest gust over a 15 or 33 second. Just what the wind does at that very time. Sucks.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 04-Aug-20 01:21 AM

Hell no

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Aug-20 01:22 AM

Yeah, if you want continual readouts, that's RM Young territory. At least it used to be.

Is that AKQs turf, or MHXs?

Looks like AKQ.

This is going to be a long night, for sure.

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:27 AM

https://twitter.com/jpetramala/status/1290512455588880384

Jonathan Petramala (@jpetramala)

One of many cars flooded in downtown #WilmingtonNC by storm surge and #HurricaneIsaias @accuweather #ncwx https://t.co/41WuG8PazS

Like come on folks. What did you expect

That hotel is literally on the river.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 04-Aug-20 01:29 AM

oh it's that one. That's the one hailtrace stayed at I think?

back in Florence

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:30 AM

No they were up a few blocks

This is the Ballast

They were at river view I believe

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 01:30 AM

Debris lofted as high as 14kft on that TORR btw

2

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 01:40 AM

Damn also 250k without power across the state

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 01:42 AM

https://twitter.com/shamnadoes/status/1290520551300177921

Sam Shamburger (@shamnadoes)

Holy crap - likely a very strong #tornado south of Windsor, NC around 120am EDT with radar showing a large TDS and debris up to 20,000 feet

#HurricaneIsaias #ncwx

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 01:56 AM

Seems like this couplet strengthened over the past couple minutes. Something to look out for in my opinion. Can’t make out a CC sig on any close by radars, but I still wish the best for those in its path.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:03 AM

That's a lot of substantial tornado activity especially for an overnight landfall, rough night out there

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 02:07 AM

Was five simultaneous TORs up at the same time around the same area. It’s just a bad place to be right now. Hope everyone is safe. I know there was one TORR outside of Windsor and that looked like a very serious situation.

This couplet is still my focus. Looks like its maintaining strength but barely any CC activity out of it. I wonder what’s going on?

TOR expired. Oh well.

Looks like a dangerous situation is forming South of Murfreesboro

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:37 AM

Is that debris fallout occurring now? PDS warning 'large and extremely dangerous' on that

I gotta sleep but it's hard to with all this going on

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 04-Aug-20 02:37 AM

Yeah that’s all debris

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:37 AM

10 minutes ago

Since then, it's debris field on CC has grown exponentially

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:41 AM

That's a biggun, yeesh

Looks like perhaps another TDS with fallout near Como, but hard to tell

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 02:56 AM

Well the big one near Elizabeth City is down now

PDS tornado warning with that now

Includes Suffolk VA

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 03:00 AM

Gosh darnit I missed it the second I took my eyes away

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 03:01 AM

And a confirmed tornado approaching Courtland VA. Goodness

CC spiked a lil, very close to downtown

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 03:23 AM

Suffolk has been hit extraordinarily hard. Dangerous since it’s 3:30AM. Hope nothing too bad.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 03:26 AM

Big debris spike and debris ball leaving town, ya hate to see it (edited)

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 03:32 AM

Its still lofting debris into the air

Carving a warpath north of Suffolk

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 04-Aug-20 03:33 AM

A debris ball on a tropical tornado? Not something you see every day.

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 04:33 AM

Alright what did I miss (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 04:35 AM

tornado hell

multiple intense tornadoes, to be more precise

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 04:36 AM

Damn that sucks

These tropical tornados man they are hell

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 04-Aug-20 04:37 AM

Here's one example

This was after it's peak intensity*

Here's a second one

This was possibly one the stronger tornadoes of this likely outbreak thus far; series debris fallout occurred with this

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 07:40 AM

Did I miss a couple of tropical tornadoes?

Max (Saint John, NB) 04-Aug-20 07:43 AM

you missed many

Max (Saint John, NB) 04-Aug-20 07:58 AM

New jersey

2

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 08:00 AM

https://twitter.com/amyelu94/status/1290609288528957440?s=21

Amy Lu (@amyelu94)

Debris leftover after a suspected tornado lifted a home off its foundation. One is hurt according to deputy fire chief in Mardela Springs @wboc https://t.co/IJqyXeHdKy

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 08:23 AM

Only broad rotation, but I’ve been staring at it for a while now and suddenly a TOR appareared

Might be because I live just outside the area lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:40 AM

I done told y'all this would be a major tornado maker

Got me that 10% tor risk.

And like predicted, it's been over land for 12 hours and only lost 10kts of wind speed. Baroclinic monster.

Also I had no idea people in the northeastern states freak out horribly to tornado warnings

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 08:50 AM

TOR in MA lol

3

2

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 08:51 AM

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 08:52 AM

https://twitter.com/nws_mountholly/status/1290630765181534208?s=21

NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly)

We literally can not stress this enough! Please take shelter if you are under a warning! #DEwx #MDwx https://t.co/890jLCZ0Lk

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:57 AM

These tors are no joke. Was some night of the twisters action going on in VA last night

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 08:59 AM

https://twitter.com/wxryanrogers/status/1290632775930978304

Ryan ☈ogers (@wxryanrogers)

Just finished one of the craziest shifts I’ve ever had at the NWS. Was not expecting the caliber of tors we had for those 2-3 hours...followed by 5 hours of more typical quick hitting TC couplets. Gonna be unpacking last night for a long time. Now to bed after 8 mids

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:01 AM

NJ, NYC, LI sound, all the way to Mass up for a rough dad, very rough

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 09:02 AM

West side of Dover appears to have taken a hit from a likely tornado based on radar.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:02 AM

whats amazing is that it's still trying to reform the eye wall on the N side.. never givign up

yup, and many areas won't be able to do damage surveys until the storm is totally gone

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:03 AM

It scares me what might happen once the storm gets to NJ/NY/CT/MA.

2

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:04 AM

onshore humid flow, giant hodos. LI sound all the way into the mass mountains

isaias is baby ivan

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 04-Aug-20 09:11 AM

How many tornado warnings has isaias produced now, at least 80 right

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 04-Aug-20 09:12 AM

A friend of mine on another Discord (for a site I occasionally write for) and I were discussing this storm as a whole, and it really has been fascinating in how it has defied norms. My friend was USAF and spent part of his time in working with the AF mets and has some experience with forecasting. Been very interesting to watch all this unfold

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:15 AM

While isolated cells, including mini-supercells, will be possible, the greatest threat for supercells and a few tornadoes is expected to remain with the primary, long-lived arcing band of storms, just ahead of the cyclone and where pressure falls are strongest. - SPC (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 09:16 AM

ABC TV station in Salisbury, MD taken off the air due to a loss of power. https://twitter.com/DanielJohnsonWx/status/1290630451183353857

Daniel Johnson (@DanielJohnsonWx)

Power is out at the station and we’re unable to get on TV right now.

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:16 AM

500+ 0-1 KM SRH. NOICE

strong theta-e advection ahead of the storm in the 'warm sector' east of the rain shield

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 09:22 AM

How does a major market TV station not have backup power

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 09:23 AM

Cheap owners @Nick (Wilmington, NC)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:23 AM

supercell compostites up to 11 in delmarva

with 6's already in Long island. its gonna be a day

70's TD, low t-td gaps. i can't even explain how amazing this setup is for tors

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:25 AM

What environment is required for violent tropical tornadoes?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:26 AM

tbh, they don't exist. violent means EF4+, the highest rating for a tropical tornado is EF3 from ivan, if i recall

significant tornadoes of EF2 are pretty rare, but these would be the conditions

most tropical tornadoes are swift moving couplets taht can't do more than an EF1. mini-supercells head of the storm might be able to make en ef2/3. but getting it to produce real to life supercells /w an EF4 might not be possible

this being said. we already had 1 fatailty overnight from a tornado in NC> and with the 14k+ debris heights. that sounds like EF2+ damage

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:28 AM

There have been 3 violent tropical tornadoes in recorded history

The shear environment in Upper NJ

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:35 AM

i see carla and hilda as tropical F4 makers. hilda's was due to interaction /w a cold front, so ill give that to the front. and carla was a monster cat 4 coming onshore at just the right time. i dont think we can duplicate those parameters with an already landfallen storm this far north, but i could be wrong.

cape inside a hurricane usually is below 2k. so mini-supercells are the favored setup. hard to get an EF4 w/o more than 2k cape.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:36 AM

Ah

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 04-Aug-20 09:38 AM

It’s hard to get tropical cyclone spawned tornadoes to be stronger than F2/Ef2, likely because most tornadoes spawned by hurricanes are short lived (edited)

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 09:38 AM

Also TORs are starting to pop up in PA, NY and MA.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:39 AM

there is a good area of 2k+ cape over the ocean. taht will be getting drawn onshore and boosted by some daytime heating. we coudl see a major outbreak today.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 09:39 AM

TOR near Baltimore, moving southwest

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:40 AM

SRH numbers are huge. shear is good, low level winds are perfect. it's got all the ingredients

3

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 04-Aug-20 09:40 AM

Pretty severe damage, said it was a mobile home park

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 09:40 AM

https://twitter.com/JoeFisherTV/status/1290642579281907716?s=20

WRALJoe Fisher (@JoeFisherTV)

1 dead, at least 3 unaccounted for after a #tornado destroyed 10 mobile homes in Windsor, Bertie County. Sky5 shows the damage including numerous downed trees and overturned cars. >> https://t.co/U7kesbIVU3 #wral #Isaias

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 09:42 AM

appears to be a tor ont he ground in NE PA

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 04-Aug-20 09:44 AM

Decent couplet moving on shore in New Jersey

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1290642763952906243?s=21

Stu Ostro (@StuOstro)

Structure of #Isaias this morning: Green: Zone of heavy #rain extending N of center Red: Band of downpours signaling arrival of stronger winds, and w/occasional #tornado spin-ups Purple: An area of strong #wind continues S of that band as the LLJ continues sweeping N

https://twitter.com/matthewcappucci/status/1290634944201580545?s=21

Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci)

#Isaias has been spawning tornadoes up and down the Mid-Atlantic coast. Here's a rotating wall cloud I intercepted an hour ago west of Ocean City, Maryland. Impossible to see what's going on at ground, but this storm was strongly spinning. @capitalweather https://t.co/7phNIGn...

Likes

112

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 04-Aug-20 09:51 AM

Certainly some major damage

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 09:52 AM

Large waterspout moving inland

Violent rotation with an offshore supercell as well

CC drop

TORR

https://twitter.com/sudbri/status/1290647474416300032

Brian Sudol (@sudbri)

Just recorded this from Strathmere NJ cam as there was rotation warning moving on shore from ocean!! @StephanieAbrams @JenCarfagno @weatherchannel @DaveCurren @JamesGWeather @myWeatherNJ @ABC7NYNewsDesk @NBCNewYork @CBSNewYork https://t.co/qU1h5xRMJO

3

2

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 10:01 AM

This signature offshore really concerns me.

If it keeps up strength as it moves ashore it could be very bad

Nick (Wilmington, NC) 04-Aug-20 10:05 AM

wow that tornado damage is bad

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 10:43 AM

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1290658857958735881

Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather)

#Isaias have proven to be a prolific tornado producer the past 24 hours .@NWS offices have already issued nearly 100 tornado warnings across 10 states

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 04-Aug-20 10:58 AM

https://twitter.com/justinqberry/status/1290662693133856776?s=21

Justin Quesinberry (@JustinQberry)

Jonathan confirms now that a second person is dead and was found in the damage left behind by the tornado. https://t.co/8ficJh0dI2

2 dead, 20 injured

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 11:17 AM

tor sig heading into NYC near coney island

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 11:22 AM

200ft beam height from TJFK, will get a good look at that

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 11:25 AM

no CC response on radar, if it was a waterspot its gone

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 11:27 AM

Certainly good timing on lifting

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 11:34 AM

Looks like there is a lull in tornadic activity right now

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 11:35 AM

Still some big bois well offshore but could be a while before those rotate in

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 11:44 AM

https://twitter.com/ABC11_WTVD/status/1290673857054093313?s=20

ABC11 EyewitnessNews (@ABC11_WTVD)

CHURCH SPARED: This picture shows the destructive path of the Bertie County tornado. The tornado snapped trees and leveled nearby buildings, but the church only lost a few shingles. https://t.co/tsJb6GnRPY

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 11:46 AM

God fearing tornado

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 11:48 AM

rain totals in SE PA 7-8 inches in spots. NE PA and N NJ could see more than that

flash floooding very likely

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 11:48 AM

https://twitter.com/alertpage/status/1290675323265265664?s=20

Alertpage Inc. (@alertpage)

DOYLESTOWN,PA BLDG COLLAPSE UNITS OPERATING AT THE DOYLESTOWN HOSPITAL FOR A PARTIAL BLDG COLLAPSE - SEARCHES UNDERWAY #BREAKING

Meso-analysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE in MA, RI and CT. If the strong shear reaches the area and the instability keeps up, the environment will become very ripe for tornadoes.

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 12:01 PM

Yeah I’m gonna guess I’m getting close to 7in

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 12:01 PM

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1290675021673791491?s=20

The Hill (@thehill)

#BREAKING: Mayor Bill de Blasio issues tornado warning for NYC: "That tornado warning is in effect now through 4pm today." https://t.co/Nzsp2bl1vL

Ben K. (Southeast PA) 04-Aug-20 12:04 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 04-Aug-20 12:07 PM

Had to double check to see if that was from the Onion

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 04-Aug-20 12:07 PM

Uh...

Does he mean watch?

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 12:17 PM

He does, but he's clearly very misinformed.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 12:25 PM

so off topic, but go look at beirut on twitter, jesus

thermobaric fireworks detonation at the port. looks like somethign from anime

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 12:26 PM

#bad-stuff-man

Anyways it looks like the band of supercells is approaching Long Island now.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 12:37 PM

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1290686296114036737?s=20

Stormchasernick (@stormchasernick)

https://t.co/iSrYmHArdp

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT MASSACHUSETTS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EASTERN NEW YORK NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND SOUTHERN VERMONT COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 01:03 PM

shrimps about to come on land in long island. this is a now a tornado thread

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 01:21 PM

The environment in the Long Island area according to Meso-analysis. It is probably underestimating the shear though as the KOKX VWP shows 772 m2/s2 of 0-3 SRH.

Strong rotation offshore of Long Island

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Aug-20 01:43 PM

Those offshore cells are awfully cellular and look to be more robust

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 01:44 PM

TOR in eastern NY

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 04-Aug-20 01:48 PM

These storms have decent rotation and are approaching Long Island right now.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 01:54 PM

Look at all these prefrontal shrimps

TOR for Northcentral MA

Possible TDS

Got deeper right near the couplet a scan ago, now it's gone

TOR for eastern Long Island

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 02:43 PM

74 knot gust at JFK airport

3

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Aug-20 02:51 PM

2 TORs in VT/NH

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Aug-20 02:54 PM

https://twitter.com/ChrisWragge/status/1290718148157747204

Chris Wragge (@ChrisWragge)

He’s ok!!! Barely. @USPS @CBSNewYork @NJGov https://t.co/6GdAEwKz2J

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 03:08 PM

seen a few photos on twitter of lots of trees down in long island

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 04-Aug-20 05:03 PM

new tornado warning south of Manchester NH

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 08:39 PM

So now that we've had time for the data to fill out, here's Buoy 41038 from last night (edited)

3

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 04-Aug-20 08:45 PM

Whoa. So here’s a question...how valid do we think the two gusts near 120 kts are?

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 08:48 PM

That was what we were thinking last night

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:48 PM

Yeah not valid.

Didn’t realize it did it a second time lol

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 04-Aug-20 08:48 PM

Yeah, that's why I was kinda waiting for dust to settle lol, I had this up last night when I saw it spike again, figured I'd let it go

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:49 PM

Both are exactly 116.6 knots then it did the same thing for Florence..... at exactly 116.6 knots with a much lower sustained wind

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:52 PM

Whenever u have jet stream baroclinic hybridization the gusts will far exceed normal

So expect gusts to be up to a category higher than normal

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:53 PM

Well that gust was 3 categories higher lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 04-Aug-20 08:53 PM

Yup, so the storm was likely a cat 2 at the moment

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 08:55 PM

I still doubt the validity, having this happen 3 separate times with the same exact gust reading (and not differentiate by a few knots) screams malfunction

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 04-Aug-20 10:21 PM

Waterspout?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Aug-20 10:49 PM

2 waterspouts going over the same location in 1 hour having the same exact gust speed seems very unlikely (edited)

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1290841468332945409

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Isaias Advisory 32: Isaias Becomes a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it Moves Into Southeastern Canada. Tropical Storm Conditions Expected For a Few More Hours Along Portions of the New England Coast. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Not the last advisory though, they will continue them until the TS warnings are cancelled for Maine

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 05-Aug-20 02:36 AM

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Aug-20 05:24 AM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1290930050720657410?s=19

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Isaias Advisory 33: Rain and Gusty Winds Continue to Spread Over Eastern Quebec. This is the Last Nhc Advisory. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Aug-20 08:53 AM

Mount Washington reported a peak wind gust of 146 MPH. This is the highest wind gust reported there in the month of August. #NHwx. Not bad for a little cat 1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 05-Aug-20 10:25 AM

To be fair that's on Mt. Washington, the highest peak in the region and the one most exposed to high altitude winds. It gets insane gusts from winter systems as well. Down on base level the winds were what you'd expect from a tropical storm. (edited)

The high gusts on Mt. Washington though were a good indicator that the jet carrying Isaias was trucking along, contributing to the tornado outbreak.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-Aug-20 10:36 AM

the notable fact was that no august tropical system in new england was over 146, showing how sneaky strong this storm became after the jet linkage

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 05-Aug-20 01:09 PM

Haha jet go brrrrrrrrrrr

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 06-Aug-20 02:38 AM

Is Isaias dead yet?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 06-Aug-20 02:41 AM

Yes

It's been extratropical for a while now

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 06-Aug-20 09:11 AM

Heading for the storm graveyard

ModBot BOT 06-Aug-20 11:17 AM

Archived