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EVENT ARCHIVE / hurricane-laura-2020
25 Aug 7:00 AM - 23.4N 86.4W, 70 MPH, WNW/290 @ 17 MPH, 991 MB
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 21-Aug-20 01:55 PM
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 02:02 PM
Quite an outlook
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Aug-20 02:15 PM
VWS ahead of Laura- nearly nonexistant
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 02:18 PM
This thing could be a monster
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 02:27 PM
Got a range from GFS to HWRF, "briefly strengthening to TS on the coast", vs "Cat 5 monster running buck wild through the gulf" (edited)
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 21-Aug-20 02:30 PM
What are the chances Laura gets beat up by Cubas mountains?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 21-Aug-20 02:52 PM
@MikeFischerWx @AndyHazelton Yeah and I’d argue we don’t want another reformation back east at 16.5N/60W like visible is suggesting, as that would help to vertically align the low & mid level vortex. Have to say the trends on visible today are concerning.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 21-Aug-20 02:56 PM
Could this become a major?
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:00 PM
Peak wind intensity on this run 167 kts
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Aug-20 03:03 PM
Think you mean ~167 mph, which is 145kts (edited)
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Max (Saint John, NB) 21-Aug-20 03:07 PM
Murdercane
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:10 PM
@Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) nah, I think I mean knots
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 21-Aug-20 03:22 PM
@Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) That looks like it's at 850mb, which is above the ground- Maximum 10m wind on this run is 133kt
Still very concerning
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:23 PM
Oh am I completely stupid and didn't realize max sustained windspeed was 10 AGL, and not the storm in general?
I may be
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 21-Aug-20 03:24 PM
Maximum sustained windspeed is usually at 10m iirc, because it's near the surface
this 1
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Aug-20 03:25 PM
Nearly 170kts at ~850mb
Yeesh......
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 21-Aug-20 03:26 PM
Hank
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:29 PM
133kts puts it at a high end Cat 4
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beard (fort worth) 21-Aug-20 05:07 PM
I see y'all found the hype models.
👍 4
@Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) if laura can survive cuba it can reform into a hurricane pretty quick. But it needs to be at least a hurricane first for that to happen. If it's still a cluster f of storms it won't make it.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 05:15 PM
Conditions ahead are really good
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beard (fort worth) 21-Aug-20 05:20 PM
For now. Still 4 days out.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 21-Aug-20 05:22 PM
#Laura’s center relocated to the south this morning. If it relocates again, we could get the LLC and MLC coupled, and a track that keeps it to the north of the Greater Antilles. This will help the storm strengthen. https://t.co/AUOmWkV6PD
Not good
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 21-Aug-20 08:41 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 09:08 AM
The "center" of #Laura appears to be near the NE tip of Puerto Rico, with the pronounced mid-level center SW of St. Croix to its south. However, west winds are being observed near the latitude of this MLC, suggesting it may be trying to form a surface circulation of its own. ...
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 09:46 AM
Is recon in there now? Would be nice to see if the blob S of PR is the dominant LLC. If it is, that could mean big changes to the forecast. (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 09:49 AM
I’m not sure what happened to the recon mission this morning for Laura
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 09:49 AM
Gotcha. I thought they'd be in there.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 09:49 AM
Yeah I did too
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 10:15 AM
Theres quite a bit of lightning near that southern circulation.
Could mean things.
Also north side gusted out.
Appears that the northern area is weakening while the southern one is intensifying.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 10:45 AM
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:48 AM
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 11:03 AM
Could see TS Watches for the Florida Keys later today. Of course, that's dependant on where they find the true center to be.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 11:05 AM
here's the 11am cone
85 peak expected currently
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-Aug-20 11:13 AM
Appears its going to roll over the land mostly, good thing for the gulf coast.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 11:15 AM
Looks like that's not going to affect it much.
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 11:37 AM
(Flips coin)
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 11:38 AM
LOL Just a bit of a difference there.
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 11:38 AM
Meh what's a few hundred miles to a cat 1 storm lol
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 12:00 PM
Straight up nightmare scenario.
Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME... Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds in Tropical Storm Laura have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly in a band to the south of Vieques and eastern Puerto Rico. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 67.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 12:11 PM
Definitely does look like the swirl south of PR is going to be the dominant center, looking off velocities.
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 12:13 PM
As long as part of her main circulation stays over water while she moves over Cuba she'll be able to survive.
👍 1
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 12:16 PM
Sure would be nice to have a recon flight down in that area to get some definitive answer.
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 12:17 PM
They'll most likely launch one later today.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Aug-20 12:21 PM
Looking at radar, it seems like the circulation (whether it's a mid level circulation or the llc) to the south of Puerto Rico is moving to the NW.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 12:21 PM
I believe it is the southern one becoming dominant considering the hot towers there and also the fact the north side gusted out.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Aug-20 12:23 PM
If Laura keeps moving at the on heading based on radar, it should make landfall on Puerto Rico today.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 12:29 PM
Rapidly expanding CDO coming from a group of hot towers lit full of lightning near the new center, the new center isn't only becoming dominant but also seems to be RI-ing
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 01:18 PM
Good eye @Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx)...the MLC or whatever it is is clearly moving WNW, which would bring it across PR this afternoon and could potentially miss Hispaniola to the north.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 01:32 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 01:38 PM
Looks to be a temporary thing
Well Levi just posted about that image
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 01:40 PM
Radar suggests that #Laura's mid-level center is drilling down to the surface just off the southern Puerto Rico coastline. Very strong vortical updraft is evident. The new circulation is small and may be disrupted passing over PR's mountains. Strong winds indicated by radar.
this 5
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 01:52 PM
#Laura Recent wind observations | Observaciones recientes de vientos: 💨Guayama: 58 mph (sustained|sostenidos)/67 mph (gust|ráfaga) (1:27 PM AST) #prwx #usviwx
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:06 PM
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:12 PM
Sickening. Right over my house as a 150 mph cat 4.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:13 PM
Justin, consider your evac plan now.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:14 PM
We have our plan made thank god. Most people down here do. We prep at the beginning of each season. Just need to stock up on more water and canned goods. We won't evac unless it's Cat 3 or higher at landfall.
If we do evacuate we're going to Poplarville, MS. depending on track.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:15 PM
Seems like a good time to vacation in Missoula.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:15 PM
I wish, it's so nice up there.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:16 PM
Then again, it would be a great chance to get great footage, and get that cash.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:16 PM
From experience, hurricane footage at night is boring as hell.
unless you're literally on the coast and lit up to see surge coming in.
Where I live, we're 3ft below sea level, my lot is at sea level.
They're closing floodgates today and tomorrow.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:18 PM
I take it the engineering has been improved in the last 15 years.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:18 PM
Down here in Terrebonne parish, absolutely
In new orleans, it's still a clusterfuck
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:19 PM
Go to NOLA with a Handicam. Wait for clusterfuck. Film rowboats full of nursing home patients. $$$$$$$$$
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:19 PM
I had enough of that during Katrina...
This was construction of out newest flood control structure. It's fully functional now.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:20 PM
I was on a deployment team for that mall that used to be down there, was going to go, until we saw it was both underwater and on fire, and we didn't go.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:20 PM
Yeah that was the oakwood mall on the west bank. Its pretty nice now.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:22 PM
So, this is going to be interesting, what with the twin hurricanes.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:23 PM
How the floodgate works
This is our whole flood gate and levee system, I live where the red dot is. (edited)
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:24 PM
The Morganza System. I remember that thing. Massive wall leading into the Achafalaya basin?
Big doors, has train tracks on top?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:25 PM
The Morganza is north of the image, this project is called "Morganza to the Gulf".
It's a coastal thing
Basically from the bottom of the morganza spillway
The way that works is when they open the morganza, it floods all the land south of it, where the Mississippi historically wants to go.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:25 PM
Where the diversion of the MS River happens?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:25 PM
Yep
without the Old River Control Structure, the River would re-route west through Morgan City.
It's artificially kept through New Orleans.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:26 PM
Weird.
Figure it would just be easier and better to let it do what it's going to do.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:27 PM
See, without the ORCS it would follow the atchafalaya
If that happened it would kill the economy
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:28 PM
So odd.
I just wonder if the total economic loss, which would eventually recover, is worth more than the cost of keeping all that infrastructure going.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:28 PM
Now, if they open the Morganza, it floods the Morganza Spillway. People who live there int he immediate area have to sign wavers that they can't sue the govt. for losing their property.
But it saves "more valuable" big cities.
You can thank the ORCS and routing of the mississippi for the land loss along the coast too.
But New Orleans economy and the shipping docks are more valuable apparently.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:30 PM
Al Gore told me that was Exxon's fault.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:30 PM
Yeahhhh ok.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:31 PM
Man, why did I move to a place that doesn't see hurricanes?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:32 PM
They're exciting til they hit, then it's just a shit ton of rain and wind
The lead up is exciting i should say. The preparation.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM
I've done coastals before in VA Beach. It's all exciting. I enjoy the fact that it's gone, and I'm still alive, when it's over.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM
I can appreciate that.
It floods too much down here for it to continue to be exciting
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM
Wouldn't be 2020 without another New Orleans flood
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM
Shit, my street floods everytime there's a bad thunderstorm
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM
The extended poverty-camping afterward and cooking cans of Chef Boyardee with a road flare? That's icing on the cake.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:34 PM
Haha, I have gas stove and water heater, most of the time I'm still good to cook and shower,
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:35 PM
We'll have to see how the improved system does if Laura landfills west and NO gets the brunt of the eastern side
Surprised redtwc hasn't started calling this the double Covidcane dilemma
Cause you know, clicks and ratings
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:36 PM
They're showing long form programming.
I've given up on them
even when they're live they're just saying bullshit, nothing like it used to be.
It feels like they're not even interested in the weather.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:36 PM
What a waste of what once was a great platform
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:36 PM
Agreed
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:37 PM
I do miss them, indeed.
Even in 2015/2016, they were still alright-ish.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:37 PM
Storm Stories started their downfall. It opened the door to all the bullshit
Eventually they fired or retired all the good ones
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM
Storm Stories revealed the seething sexual tension between Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams, which I found hilarious.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM
Lmao.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM
At least it was still about storms.
Now it's what? Canadians towing things? Panning for gold?
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM
That's pretty much the majority of the downfall. All the great TV scientists and mets they had all went away
Its now a discount discovery channel
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:39 PM
In the old days, they would be wall to wall with every hurricane expert in house.
this 2
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:39 PM
Ahhh the good old days when they would actually cover every severe weather day
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:39 PM
I can't blame them. At a certain point, Dr. Forbes has to enjoy retirement and stop working.
Weathernation has been better lately anyway.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 02:41 PM
#Laura Recent wind observations | Observaciones recientes de vientos: 💨SALINAS: 75 mph (sustained|sostenidos)/75 mph (gust|ráfaga) (2:09 PM AST) #prwx #usviwx
Yao
#Laura Recent wind observations | Observaciones recientes de vientos: 💨SALINAS: 75 mph (75 mph (gust|ráfaga)) (2:09 PM AST) #prwx #usviwx
But still
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:46 PM
CRANK IT, let's GO
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 02:47 PM
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:48 PM
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 02:51 PM
Storm Stories revealed the seething sexual tension between Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams, which I found hilarious.
@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ it’s still seething on AMHQ, too.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:52 PM
Bro HWRF stop
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:53 PM
I'm serious, the rest of cable TV is a cesspool, and I watch WN as it is, but if there was a way to just pay for and get TWC, I would.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Aug-20 02:54 PM
HWRF pretty much nailed Laura's position and structure in the 12z run today...
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:55 PM
MARCO's path completely shifted to LA this run
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 02:55 PM
I'm serious, the rest of cable TV is a cesspool, and I watch WN as it is, but if there was a way to just pay for and get TWC, I would.
@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ I watch old TWC blocks on YouTube and it makes me miss the way it was. It was informative, relatable and didn’t have the extra stuff that it has today. I’ll watch it this week, sadly.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 02:56 PM
You think Marcos path forecast gonna suck. Laura is gonna be brutal. Steering currents won't be known in the gulf until Marco leaves. 24 hours from landfall we could still have a huge cone
It's trying to make a forecast, off of another forecast
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:57 PM
I can see how this will present a challenge, at the very least.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:02 PM
Can't wait to see how New Orleans handles evacuations. Their mayor is an idiot.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:02 PM
18z ships RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 45.9% 30.2% 19.5% 13.1% 23.8% 27.9% 42.3%
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:03 PM
When has their mayor not been an idiot?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:03 PM
Looks like a two phase RI. One before the Dominican. A second possible after it gets back over water
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:03 PM
Mayor Marc Morial in the 90s was the GOAT
He was one of the best, him and his dad.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM
Wasnt he corrupt AF, but the people loved him? (edited)
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM
No, not him
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM
Which one was Mayor Chocolate City? Was that, what was his name? Negan?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM
That was Ray Nagin
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM
Oh yeah ray nagin, that guy
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:06 PM
Definitely. That guy was a moron. Blame GWB and FEMA for not knowing about a parking lot full of local school buses that could have been used for evac.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:11 PM
The levee system in New Orleans is a whole lot better, their pumping stations are another story. Most of them end up failing or losing power.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:11 PM
I would guess that the levees had to be updated by the ACE/Military/FedGov, and the pumping stations are probably NOLA DPW?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:12 PM
Yeah, they're operated by the sewage and water board, which is a corrupt joke as well
There are 148 pumps powered by 5 turbines. They pump 1 inch of rain for the first hour, and .5 inch each hour after that
Last time we had a bad rain storm, 3 of the 5 turbines failed, 16 of the pumps failed. It was horrible.
Hank 2
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:22 PM
Just got a call from Entergy that the power will be out longer than usual due to the pandemic.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:36 PM
We're sorry for crappy service, in advance. We have an excuse this time!
Your power bill for August is still $197.34, and is due before or on September 1st, to avoid shutoff.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:37 PM
My light bill is usually around $400-$500 a month, they can kiss my ass.
*In the summertime
Hank 2
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:37 PM
WHY?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:37 PM
That's just how entergy is
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM
Halfgrand for electricity is brutal.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM
Well if you want air conditioning, that's what you get lol
And they know it
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM
Brrreeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhh
What's the efficiency rating on what you're running?!
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Aug-20 03:39 PM
I run an older window AC unit in my apartment, and my electric bill is still only ~$125 a month.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:39 PM
Jacob, as a former Virginian, you cannot fathom the humidity and heat of the southeast in the summer. LA has to be even worse.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:39 PM
I believe 17 or 18
I also have window units in addition to the central air
It doesn't have enough power to cool down 100+ degree, 100% humidity days
Learn to live with it
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM
I have supplanted my central air (which doesn't work at all) with a window unit and two of those rollaway AC units that has the window hose. I think my power bill is around $200/month in the summer.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM
The coolest I can get my house in the summer without window units is 74 during the day.
Hank 1
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM
That is GROACE.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM
With blackout curtains and insulation
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:41 PM
You in a house or an apartment?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:41 PM
House
Brick ranch style, well kept
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:41 PM
You own?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:42 PM
Hell no. We're building on land up north. (By north I mean north of Lake Pontchartrain, in Louisiana)
I would never buy anything down here.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:44 PM
In your next place, look into these. They can probably save you a bunch on the electric bill. Mitsubishi Mr. Slim zoned climate systems. https://www.mitsubishicomfort.com/products
Explore our variety of zoned comfort ducted, ductless or hybrid mini-split systems for individual control over one room or your entire home.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:45 PM
Now that is cool.
Pun intended
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:46 PM
Those Mitsubishi systems are what's keeping them in business (it sure isn't the cars). Those things are ridiculously efficient, and have massive cooling capacities.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 03:47 PM
Laura is taking on the buzzsaw look today
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:47 PM
I mean, it's 73 upstairs in my place right now, and I consider that unlivable.
Dude, if you wanted that old-school TWC hurricane coverage feel, turn on WeatherNation right now.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:51 PM
I got it at 69 right now, like I said, thank god for window units.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 03:55 PM
69 is a fine temperature
😂 3
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:56 PM
I like cold-boxing the bedroom at night, and getting it down to 62 or so.
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 03:56 PM
If I have full control, I agree Dean, I enjoy sleeping with a cold room and a heavy cover
Taking it down to 62 gives more excuse to cuddle too lol
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 04:04 PM
Laura is going bonkers right now. That burst is huge
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 04:05 PM
I would think this is the best visible presentation of Laura I've seen yet
this 3
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 04:05 PM
Satcon has this at 50 kts already. Could be more
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 04:06 PM
SATCON could align with previous sfc. station obvs.- which indicates 50-55kt
Highest gust recorded was 65kt
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 04:06 PM
There's no eye on vissat, or on the Baron composite presentation yet, though?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 04:18 PM
There is a clear vortex center, but no eye clearance
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 05:54 PM
Lets lift @Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) up in prayer as LA is about to get fuuuuuuucked up.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 05:54 PM
Lol, let's see
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 05:54 PM
Marco will be a hurrican tomorrow. NHC just posted both are coming for you.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 05:56 PM
while that may be true, there are still a lot of variables still in play
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beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 06:19 PM
Not really. Marco is going around mexico instead of over it. Which gives it the ability to gain enough strength that laura can't effect it. Laura will be a little over a day behind marco. By the time she reaches the gulf coast marco will be dying in texas.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 06:39 PM
Apparently, WN thinks that the dual hurricanes are a reason to buy the entire FlexSeal family.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 06:39 PM
I can't blame them, that shit is legit.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 06:41 PM
I once painted an entire mini-pickup with black FlexSeal spray. It did great.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 22-Aug-20 06:44 PM
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Max (Saint John, NB) 22-Aug-20 06:50 PM
flex seal is a meme but its legit a really really good product
this 3
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:46 PM
Yikes
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:55 PM
Laura currently still has split-center-disorder.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 08:57 PM
one of the many variables that has to play out
to what Alex just posted
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:11 PM
This is some intense convection.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 09:12 PM
I see we've all made the switch to weathernerds.org lol
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:13 PM
Tropical Tidbits' horrible site performance kinda made it essential lol
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 09:13 PM
Is there a way to turn off smoothing with ir imagery on there?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:24 PM
If that southern center becomes more dominant then it's major trouble, that would put it smack dab in the middle of that uber intense convective flareup.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:28 PM
It looks like the center is staying south, and on a western direction. This will throw all the models off that had land weakened it
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:29 PM
another curveball then
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:29 PM
I am just amazed how much that convection flared up and how quickly, that looks like a WPAC TS
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:32 PM
The water just south of PR is crazy high OHC
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:33 PM
Thats going to result in some cataclysmic flooding and mudslides for Dominica (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:35 PM
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 48.4% 31.3% 15.4% 12.6% 21.3% 33.9% 47.8
Those are big numbers
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:36 PM
yes indeed
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 09:43 PM
I would think, with these explosive CBs, that the LLC recon found recently would be amplified and become dominant
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:44 PM
Laura microwave is just going nuts
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:45 PM
With how far south the LLC is, wouldn't be a surprise to see Laura dip shortly south of Cuba
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:46 PM
If it takes a more southernly route wouldn't that put the Texas coast at risk?
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:47 PM
I don't think the Texas coast was ever in the clear, especially considering how close some models cut it
A weaker Marco means a track possibly further west, so it's pretty dynamic
this 1
this 1
18z EPS highlights this huge spread pretty well
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:50 PM
all of this has probably given the fine people at NHC white hairs
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:50 PM
Something tells me the cone is gonna get a fair bit wider next year, lol
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:50 PM
Next year?
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:51 PM
so now Laura could make landfall anywhere from Texas to Mississippi
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:51 PM
The cone is a five year rolling average of 2/3rds track error @Alex V (Wausau, WI)
Anomalously high track error this year -> skewing that rolling average
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:54 PM
For that reason this year will probably be counted as an outlier
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:55 PM
I guess we'll see if model performance rebounds next year
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:17 PM
18z GFS of Laura.
wxtwitter 5
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 10:30 PM
Is...Laura forming an eye?
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:31 PM
what I am wondering too Royce
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 10:36 PM
That has to be a false transient mid-level eye feature
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 10:36 PM
That's what I was thinking Ethan
The way it formed just didn't seem like it was an eye
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 10:37 PM
Just a dry spot between hot towers
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 10:43 PM
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 993.4mb/ 53.0kt
Those are a big jump from dvorak
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:45 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 10:45 PM
If this continues south of the islands, ukmet really the only one that’s been showing it lol
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 10:51 PM
Mesoanalysis shows the low level center way SW of the track. Near the false eye (edited)
Strong convection will tend to pull the mid level center toward the surface center of convergence
So the path could deviate southward again
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:44 PM
posted in wrong chanell first lol
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 11:45 PM
Don't have a good feeling about Laura
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM
Bad feeling as in falling apart, or bad feeling as in running buck wild in the gulf?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM
The 2nd one
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM
its a prime candidate to pull a katrina in the gulf
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM
Going RI to EI crazy in the GoM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:47 PM
it will be a fairly well aged storm by the time it passes cuba, the wind field will be large, and it will have lots of time to rebound /w that large wind field
if it does ramp up to cat4/5, it wont be a small monster, like michael, it will be a huge beast with high kinetic energy
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:48 PM
This is the most amount of lightning strikes I've seen associated with a TC in a while
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:48 PM
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.5 / 992.2mb/ 55.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.5 3.6 4.5
based on raw t its already a hurricane
the convection just hasn't made the conversion to wind and pressure
its already huge. what's why we called it big chungus
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:51 PM
Isn't that ADT center fix too far NNW?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:54 PM
that's where the official center is, roughly, but i think its off yes, it looks to be closer to the false eye
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 12:03 AM
Oh lawd she comin
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 23-Aug-20 12:11 AM
00z GFS to Texas
Ukmet as well
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James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 23-Aug-20 12:15 AM
I guess I haven't watched the earlier stages (ie: pre-hurricane) of one on satellite loop before .. because the way that grows looks a bit weird .lol. Plus the 'eye' to me just looks like a open space rather than a true eye (basically what you guys were saying)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 12:49 AM
CDO looking really solid for a TS, question is where the center is.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 12:55 AM
Laura about to go full Hulk Hogan in the Gulf.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:07 AM
It should be noted that where Laura landfalls will depend a lot on how much Marco strengthens which the models have a poor handling of, at this point Laura could landfall anywhere between Florida and Mexico. (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 03:07 AM
ADT puts eye over land, finally. so i would guess its on the southern tip of DR right now. near the middle of the hot-towers
eye/center, whatever it is at this point. its a freak
those upper level outflow bands venting to the N and S despite it being half over freaking hispanola is nuts
its getting stronger...DESPITE LANDFALL
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:33 AM
Besides the (almost) guaranteed enormous heat input from the ocean, #Laura would likely receive another privilege of being endowed with some double outflow jets as it moves into the Gulf, almost "borrowing the whole steering high as its own outflow anticyclone"... 3/n
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:35 AM
All the flooding from this in Dominica can not be pretty.
With CBs that high there are probably some insane rain rates, all those CGs also indicate more intense cells with higher rain rates.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:47 AM
TS Laura is STILL maintaining that cold CDO constructed from those intense CBs
Extreme amount of lightning still present
Even with land interaction, Hispaniola initially won't disrupt it
Summary: We cannot take out eyes off this TC, even with it's trek through the GoM
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 04:35 AM
First time I've seen 60 with UL Divergence
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 05:01 AM
High end Cat 2 peak now
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 05:04 AM
id where you're getting those numbers
I see mid-grade Cat 2
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 05:06 AM
I saw 85-90kt
Yup, 85kt forecasted peak near landfall
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beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 05:22 AM
@Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) have you checked 00z GFS?
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beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 05:59 AM
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Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 23-Aug-20 07:44 AM
I have a genuine question, do ERCs affect the track of the hurricane at all or solely the intensity?
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Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Aug-20 07:48 AM
uhh... I'm not too sure actually pretty sure just the intensity but I could be wrong as I'm not well versed in tropical weather
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 08:17 AM
I have a genuine question, do ERCs affect the track of the hurricane at all or solely the intensity?
@Michael Carty (Plano, TX) generally just intensity.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 10:48 AM
UPDATE: With Tropical Storm #Laura moving farther south, the Florida Keys has rescinded its partial evacuation. @wsvn
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:31 AM
ADT: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.6 / 989.4mb/ 57.0kt
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:38 AM
How far that 100 mph marker is inland is... concerning
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:50 AM
Yeah I was looking at their forecast track last night. Seemed like there was a peak in between 12 hour windows
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:56 AM
I'll have to watch the next few updates for it
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 12:00 PM
Euro has a Cat 4 on approach to the TX/LA border: https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1297492720630603776?s=21
Yikes: Overnight weather model data for Laura is foreboding. Our best guidance shows a "massive hurricane" intensifying over the open Gulf of Mexico heading west to TX/LA coastline by mid-week. Only thing we can do is hope Laura does not reach its full potential.
Retweets
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 12:42 PM
Borderline cat 4 is par for the course at this point. We should just be hoping it's a Rita and not a Katrina
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beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 01:43 PM
The position of laura will all depend in Marco. The longer he stays spinning in LA the farther west he'll push Laura. Pay attention to that as she enters the gulf.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:45 PM
Wouldn't it push Laura east since the Fujiwhara effect in the Northern hemisphere is CCW?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:00 PM
Laura back over water and seems to be attempting to solidify it's core a bit more before hitting Cuba.
If this takes the southernly route and avoids the bulk of Cuba it could be off to the races.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:08 PM
If you want to view the radar that’s at Guantanamo Bay
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:09 PM
Looks to be moving nearly due west.
Oh boy...
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 23-Aug-20 02:10 PM
That really does look like due west
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:12 PM
If the center stays just overwater and skirts the southern Cuba coast it could be very bad for Cuba, especially flooding-wise (considering the monster convection Laura had last DMIN).
this 1
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:13 PM
Southeastern Cuba is really the only part that is pretty mountainous (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:17 PM
The core has got the "look" on Vissat. (No, that's not an eye, but convection is wrapping around the center).
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:17 PM
Do you mean SE Cuba @Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) (edited)
If you meant the SW portion of the SE mainland then yeah
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:19 PM
Yeah I meant SE (edited)
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beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 02:19 PM
Marco will be far enough inland that it will keep laura out in the gulf but will not kill her. It will actually make her stronger. Once marco moves inland enough Laura will go north. Like i said marco will determine when and where laura lands. (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:20 PM
Kind of hard to describe geography of Cuba with its curved shape
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:33 PM
Center clearly visible with due westward movement.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:35 PM
Recon will be in it very soon
They are starting there descent into the storm
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:46 PM
FL winds of 60 knots NE of Cuba
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:47 PM
Lots of orange, 1 purple
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:48 PM
60kts flight level winds, not even near the core yet.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 23-Aug-20 02:48 PM
...I feel like more these models are creeping closer and closer to me 😐
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:50 PM
I had a dream last night that Laura recurved Into the Atlantic and missed the US. My dreams never come true so we are screwed
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 23-Aug-20 02:51 PM
Meanwhile I had a horrible dream that both of them ended up dumping a ton of rain on eastern Oklahoma and we had the flooding disaster from last year all over again.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:53 PM
I think tx, ark, Nola are most at risk
Models have a lot of rain I to ark
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 23-Aug-20 02:54 PM
Yeah, I just feel like every time I see a new model it creeps closer to home. Probably just in my head.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:54 PM
We might get some rain from it here, it’ll mostly depend on where it makes landfall at (edited)
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:01 PM
Pretty much the only hope for Laura not getting its act together fast enough to deepen a lot was if the core was disrupted pretty heavily by land interaction and had to reorganize and at this rate that isn't looking super likely honestly
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:01 PM
Well, it is what it is.
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Dave Arnold (Brandon, MS) 23-Aug-20 03:02 PM
I had a dream I was finally going to see a legit hurricane come near me outside Jackson, MS before I move out of state in a week. I wake up to find Laura now missing me by a whole state!
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:02 PM
Not a great time to be a forecaster, local government official, or local EMA
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM
Well 47 knots SFMR so far with a 1004.3 mb extrap
Not even to the center
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM
extrap pressure transmission also looks pretty spotty
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM
ATCF puts it at 50 mph and 1004 mb
Yeah hopefully we get some drops
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:09 PM
ADT puts it at 57 kts
We will see which one is more correct
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 03:10 PM
ATCF puts it at 50 mph and 1004 mb
@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) Kts or MPH?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:10 PM
45 kts 50 mph so yes mph
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 03:11 PM
Gotcha. Wasn't sure.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:17 PM
998.3mb extrap
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:18 PM
48 kt SFMR
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 03:18 PM
The 403rd Wing relocated its aircraft today as Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura make their way toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.The #AFRC Hurricane Hunters will operate out of Atlantic Aviation Charleston International Airport S.C. to fly both storms. https://t.co/WGgRLaBz2...
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 03:55 PM
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 04:05 PM
Watch the HWRF and HMON models. Both of those bring Laura close to Houston and have support from the 00z EPS suite.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 04:11 PM
latest recon pass over Laura
kek
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 04:20 PM
That would put it at 64 mph removing the contaminated readings.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 04:20 PM
Yep around 65 mph
72 knot FL is pretty significant too
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 04:36 PM
What's the ground speed so far?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 04:40 PM
At least 50kts, if recon is to be accepted (edited)
1000mb sfc pressure w/ 32kt wind- equates to ~997mb
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 04:47 PM
Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be interpreted as such. Wh...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 05:05 PM
marco looks like it has peaked. laura is gonna pump it up
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 05:10 PM
this 7
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 23-Aug-20 06:05 PM
Sorry guys, I cursed us all troll
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 06:07 PM
AngryTom
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 23-Aug-20 06:26 PM
it's going to do the 100 mile wobble on each run
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 06:57 PM
Looks like recon bailed on their mission into Laura about. Last VDM was an hour ago. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:00 PM
Laura living up to the Big Chungus name and going all massive convector again.
Hank 5
ohshit 3
this 3
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 07:02 PM
-90°C on those cloud tops
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:05 PM
Just wait for closer to DMIN for it to go all out insane like it did last night.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 07:06 PM
I'm concerned Laura could pull some RI tonight
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:06 PM
I don't know what to make of this thing, Laura has (so far) acted much more like a WPAC Tropical Storm than an Atlantic one.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 07:07 PM
Looks like the center of Laura is onshore or very near Guantanamo Bay.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 07:08 PM
It moved onshore about an hour ago now
current radar view
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:09 PM
Watch the uber convection pull the center back over the water again
this 4
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 07:10 PM
plenty of lightning in that convection too
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 07:16 PM
It moved onshore about an hour ago now
@Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) thanks. It’s hard to tell from radar.
👍 2
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 07:37 PM
[#NerdTweet] #Laura could be tilted slightly southward, with the radar-indicated surface center now over eastern Cuba, and the mid-level center possibly still offshore. Whether the MLC nudges the LLC back southward is important for how much interaction with Cuba occurs tomorr...
this 4
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 08:03 PM
An automated observing system at Guantanamo Bay recently reported sustained southeast winds of 60 mph, with a gust to 72 mph. Follow along with these observations at https://t.co/6pVYoyT0wj! #flwx #FLKeys #KeyWest #Laura https://t.co/yxoc1J4o6s
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 23-Aug-20 08:05 PM
That loop really shows that she's moving due west
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 08:15 PM
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 08:49 PM
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 08:50 PM
I'm rooting for CEM2 troll
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 08:50 PM
Both Laura, one is from Laura's HWRF run and the other is from Marco's (edited)
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 08:54 PM
Reminder - If you are going to be in the strike zone for this storm, let an Orange know, and you will get the red Ground Zero role, and posting access on #laura-ground-zero-2020 .
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 10:46 PM
...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 23-Aug-20 10:48 PM
getting close
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:50 PM
is her center back over water already?
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 10:50 PM
Still over Cuba
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:50 PM
So she's intensifying. Over land.
This thing is going to explode once it gets to the gulf.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 10:51 PM
I think it's more of an intensity update, since the recon flight also support 55kt
They just had surface obs to corroborate it
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:53 PM
What also concerns me is that the MLC to the south looks like it is becoming stronger/more dominant, a southward shift/relocation is pretty possible.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Aug-20 11:00 PM
If it relocates again there's a pretty decent chance it could become a hurricane tomorrow, environment is pretty favorable if it has less land interaction.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Aug-20 11:02 PM
Ok
Yao 6
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 11:09 PM
Yes, classic NAM3km and the CAT5's
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 11:11 PM
Cat 5s with massive windfields
lol
This is why we don't use the NAM outside of early season frontal spawned weak TSs
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 11:25 PM
NAM: I made a mistake ECMWF: Par for the course mate lol what happened? NAM: Someone said hurricane and I… GFS: Oh my god
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beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 11:44 PM
Watch the high pressure system to the east. It's going to move west and push her back againts the tx/la line if not farther west.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:56 PM
Might I remind everyone that nam3km nailed Dorian's path and intensity for several days once it got into range
So cat 5 fantasy cast might become reality if it gets into the right setup. 3km handles strong convection really well. Something the hurricane models dont
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J. Mike Sheard (KY) 24-Aug-20 12:11 AM
HWRF did as well
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 24-Aug-20 12:15 AM
Very deep convection with plentiful lightning continuing to fire off overnight, starting to look like it ends up mostly going south of Cuba and allowing for more intensification tomorrow. (edited)
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 12:20 AM
The issue here is none of the models are agreeing. So right now all we do know is LA will be effected. But will it make land fall along the texas coast, the tx/la line, la line? Every run it jumps back and forth.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 12:48 AM
Recent (~1.5 hours old) ASCAT pass over #Laura shows an LLC south of Cuba's southern coast. If it manages to become dominant which seems plausible given the convection further south, it means little further land interaction, & earlier organization, though NE shear will contin...
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:47 AM
Laura's structure definitely took a hit from SE Cuba, though since it's back over water again it may begin to recover a bit.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 04:54 AM
It's so elongated rn
But better than earlier
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY....
A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.
NHC saying in discussion it may become a major
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 06:04 AM
Certainly couldnt rule it out
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 06:13 AM
Looking less long now
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:49 AM
The core convection is shallow and scraggly looking but it’s getting there.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 07:43 AM
Good morning Laurw
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 08:57 AM
The move south of Cuba could be interesting
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 09:56 AM
00z run of the hwrf had laura down to a borderline cat 3 at landfall. 06z brings it up to a max cat 4. let's see what 12z brings...
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:02 AM
If it rises the west aide of the cone then that would be more possible
The farther west just means more time for it to strengthen
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:26 AM
At least some pretty good consensus that itll be a pretty strong system its just the track that could change these numbers a bit
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:30 AM
look at the visible. laura is going bonkers
every reliable model has this at close to cat 3 or cat 3 landfall. HWRF and HMON both set on cat 4+
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:32 AM
look at the visible. laura is going bonkers
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Can you explain how Laura is "going bonkers"? Recon is finding 999-1002 mb pressures.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:34 AM
the hot towers are wrapping around the upshear side. (shear is from the NE right now, weird right?)
upshear towers are always a sign of intensification. recon won't find a pressure drop for 6-12 hours after convection begins to recover
at this stage, it's all about proximity of convection relative to the center, cloud top temps. etc
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 10:36 AM
North or NE is the shear.
But yeah she’s looking better (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:37 AM
there is still a little dry air near the center on the NW side, based on mid-level WV. this could limit her going really good today. but she will likely be a hurricane by tonight
even the slow-rolling EURO has her leaving cuba has a hurricane. so the odds of her dying off or shearing apart like marco are pretty low
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:41 AM
Thanks @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) and @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS). Pretty sizable shift west on the 06z Euro. Perhaps it’s finally caught on to where the center is? Either way, Houston/Galveston in the right side of the Euro’s track = not good. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1297885976056995840?s=21 (edited)
Bad news from the final batch of morning weather model data especially if you are in Texas. The spaghetti solutions from the ECMWF 06z update (ensembles) shows the most-likely: Track: including Houston metro. Intensity: Category 2-3+ likely.
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 10:43 AM
If Laura goes west, I will have a window view
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:44 AM
unlike harvey, this will likely have a MASSIVE storm surge infront of it. wind will be a problem, but the surge will be ike-worthy, or worse
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:45 AM
If this makes landfall in SW LA, the surge could be worse than Rita.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:46 AM
yeah the angle of attack coming into say, lake charles, is much worse than rita. the bayou would be topped all the way to lafayette
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:15 AM
As others have mentioned, looks like recon is finding another, robust & closed level center ~1 degree due west of #Laura's previous low-level center fix. If this center becomes dominant, it would have major track & intensity implications going forward.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:23 AM
Looks like the dominant center has moved to the hot tower near 21N/80.9W.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:25 AM
This storm likes to relocate
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 11:26 AM
It will likely wobble about 5 more times before landfall (gulf)
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 24-Aug-20 11:35 AM
looks at models HEAVY BREATHING
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 11:41 AM
locals
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 11:57 AM
euro model spread is still brownsville all the way to NOLA
pretty nuts for the 'best model' as many claim
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 24-Aug-20 12:09 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 12:14 PM
HWRF is back calling for a near-cat 5
with an absolute horrible landfall near lake charles.
those bayous are already in horrible shape. if they get destroyed we'll lose a ton of nature reserves, and the protection they provide
there's also the risk as massive oil leaks. so many platforms in that area. so many refineries
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 24-Aug-20 12:35 PM
refineries are a bigger risk than platforms
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 24-Aug-20 12:43 PM
and the refineries will release a lot of waste in addition to their fuel if they're hit (edited)
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 01:01 PM
The refinaries are fine. They've survived worse.
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 01:18 PM
We have alot of refineries along Galveston Bay. (Texas City, north)
I'm two miles from the big one
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 01:40 PM
Sure does look like the center shifted west another degree. https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-1013A-LAURA.png
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:40 PM
I dont think you need to worry so much about the refineries.
Yep a small shift westwards.
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:05 PM
The ones that haven't exploded already will be ok lol. They'll be evacuated except for necessary personal which is usually 1 single manager, hand full of techs/enginners to watch the pressures etc and a few security gaurds that get double time (i was one of them during ike lol $$$$)
this 3
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:06 PM
Have the local authorities said anything about what evacuations may look like given the pandemic?
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:06 PM
@TJ (Houston/Galveston TX). Are your staying put or are you going to go east and play?
@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN). Evacuations for the coast is "go north as far as you can afford" most people find a hotel around waco or huntsville or go to a family members house. Some find an rv park (if they have an rv) and wait. They are use to this type of thing.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:08 PM
Yea, I guess I was wondering if there were any special concerns/efforts in place to contain the spread of COVID.
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:08 PM
Just the normal "wear a mask stay 6 feet apart"
@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱. Tj needs to be red
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM
Kleckner?
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM
Never mind you just did it lol
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM
Well I will be praying all the same. Hopefully that will be enough. Thanks @beard (fort worth)
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM
Someone did. Wasn't me?
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM
I'm staying put as long as I can, but it depends on what the rest of the family does
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM
Owell
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM
I might have to pack the kids and the dogs in the vehicles, and run north
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM
@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) TXDOT is monitoring the situation currently for Houston
👍 1
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM
Floridaman knows how to deal with this.
Board shorts, American flag, Slayer.
this 3
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM
lol
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM
yee
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM
RAINING BLOOD!!!
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM
TXDOT is worthless during a hurricane.
Their worthless in sunny weather too
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM
Atleast they have posted something about it lol. Either way for Houston is basically take 59N or i10W
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM
For Galveston and bay areas, https://saltwater-recon.com www.texas-city-tx.org/page/city.camera https://www.galveston.com/webcams/
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM
45N you know will be backed up
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM
I just order a 36 pack of water, 24 pack of dr pepper, some chips, lunchables and my mom made spaghetti i need to go pick up. Going to be a long week lol
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM
yeah, I was going to run west, say Columbus
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM
Pretty much should be good.
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:14 PM
West of 45 should be fine unless laura decides she wants to check up on the harvey rebuilding
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:14 PM
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:14 PM
In the Houston area contraflow would only be implemented as a last resort on IH 45 North Frwy, IH 69 Eastex, IH 10 Katy, and US 290 and only after local authorities mandate evacuations. We stand ready if asked by local authorities to help in this type of effort.
Yeah getting to Columbus should be fine for you @TJ (Houston/Galveston TX)
Missing some of the big highways were you know youll be backed up.
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:16 PM
my route takes me under 45, and away from Houston
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:17 PM
Most of the people who will evacuate have already or will in the morning depending on the updates tonight.
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:17 PM
45 is a nightmare on a sunny day
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:17 PM
Turner just needs to be smart about it. I think he learned his lesson the hard way with Rita. Harvey he stood ground @beard (fort worth)
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:18 PM
Turners a dumbass in every aspect of life.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:18 PM
Houston is PACKED. They'd have like 20 lanes outbound on contraflow, and they'd need every bit of it for an evac.
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:18 PM
He's why half of HFD is gone
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:19 PM
Im not gonna get into politics but he atleast was smart about evacuation. Yes our house flooded but he could have got alot of more people killed telling them to leave during Harvey. Rita was a mess. Idk how we didnt get into any of the traffic since we evacuated to Laredo.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:20 PM
What is that one road I drove on when I picked up that ambulance down there? The Sam Houston Expressway? 10 LANES each direction, bumper to bumper traffic, but it's all moving at 70mph.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:20 PM
Good Ol Beltway 8 @B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ ?
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:20 PM
45
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:21 PM
It was named after a dude
But I think a lot of stuff there is
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:21 PM
Probably was sam houston/45 sections of it are called that.
Did you go towards dallas or LA
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:23 PM
East to I-10.
The Tim Ball connector to the Sam Houston? Then some roads, which appear to be major roads, are just named Farm Road (number).
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:23 PM
Yup
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:25 PM
Well, west to Advance to replace a radiator hose that had immediately blown, then Harris County Smokehouse, then east to I-10.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:27 PM
Love how you remember this all so vividly (edited)
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:29 PM
When you spend 7 grand on a strange ambulance, fix it on the roadside while looking at scorpions (those don't exist here), and then drive it sight unseen across the country, you remember it.
👍🏻 1
Took 3 days to get home. I thought it would be faster.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:32 PM
Yeah it can get bad. Im still surprised we missed the Rita mess when that happened. Forgot how we did it. Didnt evac for Ike though since Rita was no big deal.
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 24-Aug-20 02:36 PM
@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ I took care of TJ on the red. Probably did that an hour ago. Another reminder for anyone who needs the red tag for ground zero, contact an orange and we'll get you fixed up
I'll be in Fredericksburg when it makes landfall, probably will be too far west to get any rain out of it
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beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:50 PM
A rolling brick being fast..... Come on dean lol
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 24-Aug-20 02:54 PM
Well, I don't think I have to worry about the dam. Would take a lot of rain very fast for it to be a problem for us in Tulsa metro.
still keeping an eye on it. any time something like that comes through here its client site outages left and right for a few days, and road flooding makes a mess of dispatch.
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:58 PM
The city said residents along the west end may begin voluntary evacuation today at 1 p.m. as Tropical Storm Laura moves closer to the coast.
I'm safe from the water, not from the winds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA607f-SUa8
The Texas City Pump station is a critical piece in the @Texas City Emergency Management plans for the Hurricane Protection Systems in the City of Texas City There are two pump stations in the city that take runoff rainwater from the ditches and pump them into Moses Lake. The...
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 03:56 PM
for laura in about 12-18 hours, it'll be game on for it (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:01 PM
models have a pretty slow start for her once she's away from cuba. but then they go nuts mid-gulf
still intensifying until just before landfall when it might do a replacement cycle
euro shifts further toward houston again, even S of it. but only 1 cat 3 ensemble
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:28 PM
Honestly this thing looks like it’s primed to RI once it’s in better conditions. It’s been slowly building its core throughout the day, question is how strong will it get. The only real future inhibitor of how fast it will strengthen is its size, which might make it slower to roll at first before the RI. (edited)
She's having a wild convective burst again
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:34 PM
those new towers on the west side! and that lightning! baby
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:35 PM
Keep in mind: That convec fired up in just 4 frames
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:35 PM
the surface lows appears to be fairly spread and unorganized still, but mesoanalysis shows there is still very good convergence at low levels, something macro didn't have
it definately has the look of a WPAC storm (that are often sheared from the NE when they start) that's about to pop
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:37 PM
It's going over some very hot water right now, which should help it better organize before going over Cuba again and then head out to more favorable conditions in the Gulf
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:38 PM
yeah the bay of pigs is bathwater. it will have very little resistance over W cuba, it's very flat (edited)
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 24-Aug-20 04:41 PM
Cuba in general doesn't put on the resistance that Hispañola does, but especially western Cuba.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:42 PM
And to think this thing strengthened over Hispanola. What kind of WPAC sh*t is this storm?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:44 PM
higher SST's, higher ambient humidity, storms will be less reliant on synoptic situations and more dynamically forming
climate change is real, and its impacts may be unpredictable
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:45 PM
I read somewhere that the N Atlantic would warm faster than other oceans due to it's geography
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:46 PM
yes, it will warm faster than anywhere but the arctic
largely because it's main cooling / venting mechanism is the arctic side of the gulf stream. as the gulf stream slows due to salinity changes, more will heat will stay south, and less cold will funnel south
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:47 PM
Ironically arctic warming has been responsible for the monster winter storms with record-breaking snowfalls and 60+ mph high winds and also cold snaps we've gotten these past few winters.
Here in the upper midwest at least.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:48 PM
15 years ago when i was doing my climatology degree, cooling in the midwest was forecast in a full on climate change scenario. due to increased humidity in the summers, and the breakdown of the arctic low in the spring/fall
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:48 PM
I've also noticed winter has shifted an entire month, it starts in January and ends in late April early May now.
this 1
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:48 PM
an increase in the intensity of hurricanes was not forecast, but we did think the season could be longer / more active due to waves that normally would die, hanging on until they could pop
higher SST's impact on the intensity of major hurricanes is non-zero, but not major. it simply increases the odds of RI slightly. however, in some storms, slight odds changes are all it needs
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:51 PM
Also we here seem to have less of a spring each year, how I can sum up these past few years is a winter with intense blizzards and cold spells straight into hot boiling temperatures in the span of a couple weeks, possibly some severe wx in there as well but I've noticed a particular increase of severe wx in August-November too. Also I've noticed there's been in uptick of derechos, the one in Iowa+IL the other week this year and the twin derechos we had last year being two examples.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:53 PM
derechos i would say are much more likely to increase in number than tornadoes. derechos are largely reliant on instability alone, with less depending on shear. vs tornadoes which are largely shear dependent. with the increase in humidity and therefore instability, wind events will become more common. tornado events may actually go down eventually due to the mis-timing of maximum shear with best instability that will occur once jet streams start moving north. perhaps winter outbreaks may become as common as spring ones
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM
Radar image
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM
I don't think tornado numbers will change much, but there may be an increase of EF3+s
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM
3/4 of an eye formed
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:55 PM
Oh boy
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:55 PM
it's still open on the north, showing that it's struggling against teh shear and dry air form the land interaction
but if it can complete the circle. oh boy
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:55 PM
As I said, it's primed to go once it's in the gulf
It seems to be mixing out the multiple LLCs
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 05:07 PM
new mission about to set out
✈️ 6
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Aug-20 05:38 PM
There's a little mountain and hill range north of Pinar del Río, but it's only about ten miles wide and Laura has shrugged off much bigger mountains thus far
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:04 PM
Monadnocks don't affect TCs as much as ranges do.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:08 PM
quite the convective towers going up near the western tip of Cuba
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:13 PM
This is a solid T3.5 Probably 60-65 mph/996-998 right now.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 06:18 PM
See how it deals with its last passing of higher elevation
About 1000-1500 feet “mountains” on the west end of Cuba
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:24 PM
If it strengthened over Hispanola I doubt those few low mountains will do much to it. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:31 PM
UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 24 AUG 2020 Time : 215021 UTC Lat : 21:47:13 N Lon : 82:25:12 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.3 / 990.0mb/ 51.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.3 3.4 4.1
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 06:32 PM
Steady pressure fall so far and not even to Cuba
1000.3 mb extrap still north of the Cuba coastline
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:38 PM
[#NerdTweet] Recon observations suggest that #Laura has a slight north-to-south tilt with height, consistent with the northerly shear. The MSLP minimum was located north of the 700mb wind shift, and the center dropsonde has west wind at the surface, but east wind at 700mb.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:41 PM
That was from a few hours ago
It's likely stronger now
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:43 PM
ah
ty Alex
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 06:44 PM
995.1 mb extrap still falling
⬇️ 3
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 06:47 PM
Locations May be uninhabitable for weeks.”NWS Lake Charles is using some rather strong wording in their latest statement regarding impacts from #Laura.Much of the southern #Louisiana coast is forecast to see surge as high as 7-11 feet,and winds higher then 100 MPH.#Weather
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:49 PM
well
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:50 PM
To be fair, 996 earlier was my conservative estimate.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:58 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:00 PM
downtown lake charles is 15 ft above sea level. an 11 foot surge will drown much of the area and isolate it. the wave action will likely put much of the town underwater
anything stronger than a cat 2 will do incredible damage and reach up to 50 miles inland. potentially
uninhabitable is the correct word to use
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:01 PM
50 miles
Typo?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:01 PM
not a typo.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:01 PM
How could surge go 50 miles inland?
this 1
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:02 PM
there is very little rise in the bayous in some areas. it will infiltrate much in the way a river can backup during a storm
the bayous are essentially, a big flat river
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:08 PM
To be fair those bayous are barely habitable as they are, it's incredibly unstable ground to build (literally building on sand and mud)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:08 PM
lake charles is nearly 30 miles inland. the lake itself is an elevation of only 9 feet. much of the city is in the floodway
and numerous other small towns are built on much less stable areas than that. depending on angle of attack and wind you could see rivers reverse flow, like beaumont during harvey
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:16 PM
Can someone explain this wind profile to me? Weak winds being found at flight level yet there are SFMRs (unflagged) approaching 60kts.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:17 PM
That happened a couple days ago with Marco too
Its really weird
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:17 PM
SFMR and Flight Level seem to be flipped around
Dynamics causing upper level winds on one side of the center to mix down onto the opposite side?
I don't know.
Can that happen?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM
Oh people are saying they're flying a little higher up than normal rn
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM
they are doing high recon that swhy
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM
So it's probably actually stronger than we're already seeing, we'll see in the drop
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM
Right, winds are weaker higher up.
Makes sense.
Should have noticed the increase in altitude on that graph.
ADT puts it at 989 mb and 53 kts, T3.4
Sat presentation is really good, the pressure just found by recon just seems to still be catching up.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:23 PM
Honestly nervous about how this is gonna go
A major hurricane landfall is the last thing anyone needs rn
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:23 PM
When you see an ADT presentation ahead of recon findings you should be nervous.
That means it's strengthening
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:23 PM
And I think it's gonna go bombs away tonight
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 24-Aug-20 07:24 PM
officially leaving in the AM to chase Laura. Surge maps in Lake Charles may make this one tough
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:24 PM
Two recon planes in Laura right now
The second one seems to be upper air/environment sonde
Actually
They are decreasing in alt
They are flying at the same alt as the recon currently in the storm.
When you see two low level recons in one storm you know serious shit is about to go down (edited)
From Af309 (new recon)
Compare to NOAA3
Indicating a rapidly strengthening (and possibly expanding) upper windfield
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 24-Aug-20 07:37 PM
AF came in on the NE side, NOAA came in on the NNW side
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:38 PM
Also question about HH over Cuba. Doesn't AF HH need to get approval from the Cuban government or something since it's technically a US military craft flying over an unfriendly country? I know Cuba can be weird about airspace, especially towards the US. (edited)
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:42 PM
Iirc they let the hurricane hunters fly over and that's it
Having that data helps them too
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:45 PM
Just figured there'd be more geopolitical baggage with the AF HH since they are military.
NOAA I figured less so.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 07:55 PM
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:03 PM
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 08:03 PM
Of course Cuba doesn't mind using our data, our aircraft, and our weather service, to help them with Hurricanes. They're still making brand new 1964 Mercury Montegos there.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 24-Aug-20 08:07 PM
Yikes! 938 mb right off the Houston coast. +54 hours
Hank 2
From the 18z Euro run
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:08 PM
😬
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 08:11 PM
well
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 08:13 PM
And the Euro was previously the bearish model.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:14 PM
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:23 PM
Looks like they're letting Recon fly over Cuba
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 24-Aug-20 08:28 PM
Looks like Marco took the brunt of that shear
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:29 PM
Literally died so that Laura could strengthen
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 08:34 PM
convection on the upshear side on the N, you knwo what that means boys. she's getting ready to pump it up
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:37 PM
Should only be over land for a couple hours too
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 08:37 PM
its already emerging
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:38 PM
It's crossing over the mountains rn and the fact they're doing nothing to do it isn't a good sign
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 08:38 PM
Still too much uncertainty Between the NAM and Euro oldman
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 24-Aug-20 08:39 PM
18z HWRF shows it making landfall as a mid-end Cat 4.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 08:39 PM
It's organizing better over those mountains if anything
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:41 PM
CoC is close to emerging over the GoM
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 08:43 PM
And it has that serious look already
How did the COC track over Cuba so quickly? It was in the bay just an hour ago
Also this sonde
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:45 PM
~60kt sfc wind, so take away 6 mb
You'd get 997mb
But that's not related to the eye
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 08:57 PM
She's got the look.
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Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 24-Aug-20 08:59 PM
thank you for getting that song stuck in my head
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 08:59 PM
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) good song.
Music video by Roxette performing The Look.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 24-Aug-20 09:36 PM
Primitive eye is here
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 24-Aug-20 09:36 PM
Already?
Damn, she wasted no time
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:38 PM
watching the recon data come in on GREarth
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Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 24-Aug-20 09:39 PM
So why is Laura projected to go as far west as it is?
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:40 PM
one reason is the high pressure area nosing in from the east
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Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 24-Aug-20 09:41 PM
What about the really high amounts of shear in the Western gulf?
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:41 PM
from what I have seen not as much shear as the amount that basically had Marco for dinner
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 09:42 PM
Marco literally sacrificed itself
It dying lessened the shear
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:50 PM
I wonder about that convection south of the center of Laura as the center emerges into the Gulf
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 09:51 PM
That convection will die off as the convection around the core ramps up
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:51 PM
ah
ty Alex
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 24-Aug-20 09:55 PM
Not sure if #Laura has already moved into the Gulf of Mexico yet. While it appears so on radar/satellite, the last @NOAA_HurrHunter fix over land was further S, suggesting the mid-level vortex has precessed cyclonically around the low-level center but is not quite aligned yet...
this 3
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Aug-20 10:04 PM
Wow 9 feet surge 50+ mi inland for Cat 3 for this part of Louisiana. Man that's pretty legit.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:06 PM
@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) yikes. IIRC, I think the surge may have gotten to I-10 in Rita. (edited)
Wow 9 feet surge 50+ mi inland for Cat 3 for this part of Louisiana. Man that's pretty legit.
Hank 2
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:19 PM
00z SHIPS Rapid Intensification table. 54% chance of a 25+ knot increase in 24 hours:
this 6
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GanondorfMain7606 24-Aug-20 10:26 PM
That’s pretty concerning. I hope my research mentors get to see this.
They work so much on TCs so they would definitely be interested in Laura.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 24-Aug-20 10:36 PM
Those higher values are pretty alarming too, 7 to 8 times climatological mean
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 24-Aug-20 10:39 PM
Is it still generally going further west the stronger it gets, or is that not accurate?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 10:45 PM
Forecast peak now 110 mph
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 10:46 PM
one more step up would be a Cat 3
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 10:52 PM
Looks like #Laura is just emerging offshore. The convection trying to wrap has high winds, suggesting beginnings of an inner core. New convection is forming where recon found the wind shift, & most vortex tilt is gone. Laura is organizing, & will intensify w/ favorable condit...
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 10:57 PM
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:01 PM
Really surprised they didn’t pull the watches West. If the overall track shifts west overnight, then the window for Houston to evacuate is very limited. Could be a scenario that Houston is in a watch one advisory, warning six hours later.
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 24-Aug-20 11:49 PM
That's a great point, considering how bad the Houston area evac was with Rita, (not the same circumstances of course) they need all the time they can get
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:17 AM
LOL WHUT
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:19 AM
NAM Im guessing?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 12:20 AM
Yeah that's NAM3km
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:21 AM
The NAM is normally 50 millibars below the actual possibility and comes up with ridiculous scenarios, which is why we don't use it for TCs outside of early season cold front spawns.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:34 AM
If ATCF is correct then Laura will still have a TS windfield extending well southeast even when well inland continuously pulling in surge, that plus tropical rains equals swollen backed up rivers.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:44 AM
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
Yeah, ADT, I don't think so.
New pink hot tower in core.
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Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 25-Aug-20 01:18 AM
newest IR sim
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:22 AM
Anyone know if the Euro still impacting Houston directly? Last model showed it.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:25 AM
@Sean H(Houghton,MI) we're still on this morning's euro run. it should be done soon. that run had 90% of it's landfalls near houston, cat 2-3
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 01:26 AM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 01:26 AM
That hot tower is right over the center to based on the last recon pass
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:26 AM
master euro this morning had landfall near beaumont at 959mb we'll see how tonight goes
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:29 AM
Keep me updated @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:29 AM
200+ OHC, highest in the atlantic basin + near zero shear for the next 12-24 hours. if ever a storm was gonna bomb out, this is it
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 01:29 AM
Took a WSW jog
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 01:30 AM
Not surprised, that is where the convection is
She's about to blow.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:30 AM
the eye is repositioning again toward the convergence
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:32 AM
Where are you viewing the euro model @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:33 AM
weather.us
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:34 AM
Thanks.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:35 AM
i expect a CDO to form tonight within this next pulse. then we'll probably get an eye to pop out in about 12 hours
ships and other RI's have 25kts/24hours well near 60% odds. basically a lock.
so 80kts by tomorrow night, likely cat 2 seems to be the forecast
10% friends. 10%... RIPA 70kt / 48h 9.5% 10.0% 9.7%
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 25-Aug-20 01:55 AM
Hold your horses on RI everyone (edited)
Its moving into dry air
😔 2
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:16 AM
It's going to ingest Marco's moisture
But can we talk about that massive wave of moisture coming off of Africa?
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Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 25-Aug-20 02:19 AM
heres the Euro https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/746813794415542303/747697547740446730/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png?width=699&height=475 south of Galveston per usual but honestly those models are pretty much sling shotting the Texana coastline (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:20 AM
948
Euro being more bullish than the GFS at this point.
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Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 25-Aug-20 02:20 AM
sorry if i mess up. tropics arent usually my strong point
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:22 AM
HWRF really hates Louisiana
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:49 AM
COTC and Euro still liking the Texas Landfall
And I guess CMC and AEMN
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 03:47 AM
I have a suspicion that we're gonna see another SW shift in the models w/ #Laura later today. The last recon center fix placed #Laura's center on the SW edge of today's 12z Euro ensemble. This is likely bad news for folks on the TX coast, esp from Galveston to Port O'Connor #...
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109
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:52 AM
Multiple hot towers surrounding the CoC
Hank
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 03:53 AM
0_0
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:00 AM
Looks like a solid CDO forming
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 05:01 AM
category3 6
redtwc 4
Now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:22 AM
Morning... and it’s now late August at its finest. Possibly a landfall from a major hurricane should Laura recovers.
Also, I should say that sometimes models underestimate rapid intensification.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:24 AM
Rapid intensification is always a struggle with models
So this should be interesting in the next 24-30 hours
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 25-Aug-20 07:26 AM
Pressure down to 993, near Hurricane strength
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:27 AM
Yep... Patricia was the big one, but I saw that with Irma and Harvey. Models suck with RI, but I can contact research mentors to see if they can find anything interesting about Laura.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:29 AM
Cant wait for the sun to rise on Laura and watch the satellite
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:32 AM
Yep that would be interesting with hot towers
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 25-Aug-20 07:36 AM
NEW | @CityofGalveston Mayor Pro Tem Craig Brown signed a mandatory evacuation Tuesday instructing all Galveston residents to begin leaving the island for safety. #KHOU11 #HTownRush
Oh lawd
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:53 AM
70 mph storm now
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 25-Aug-20 08:16 AM
The NHC has Laura making across the US and re-entering the Atlantic as a TS
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 08:18 AM
Post tropical cyclone with TS winds
Hurricane Laura now official
Special@update statement
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT LAURA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:25 AM
Here we go... oh and I’m curious to see what Laura has to offer as remnant if it’s going to pass by the town
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:26 AM
All overnight ensemble members from EPS 00z were in Texas for Hurricane Laura with average location right thru Houston. Other guidance has belatedly shifted westward as well reflecting the current location of Laura. 🌀
No change with 06z ECMWF update that arrived just now. Houston under significant threat of strike from likely major Hurricane Laura lin less than 48-hours. 🌀
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 08:27 AM
Half the models still trying to hit Houston?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:44 AM
Double hot towers circling the center. Like an ouroborus
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 08:47 AM
1-min satellite imagery shows twin vortical hot towers (-80C) currently rotating cyclonically around #Laura's center. This is a sign that the storm is continuing to intensify, and is likely to close off an eyewall soon. By this afternoon, we are likely to see an eye pop out...
Jack sillin seeing what Royce is seeing
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:48 AM
Gee bad news for Houston on the 3rd year anniversary of Harvey
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:50 AM
Houston well within the danger zone. The stronger this storm is the more left it will turn. In the absence of strong NW sheer the storm will try and go due west around the high
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 08:53 AM
77 knot Flight level winds found now
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:54 AM
Rapid Intensification ladies and gentleman
it begins..
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 08:59 AM
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:03 AM
Rapid Intensification here we go
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:03 AM
i had predicted an eye by noon. let's see if that microwave will confirm
notice there is no lightning near the center anymore. the dry air is gone
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:04 AM
Money says 10 am CDT
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 09:04 AM
Once she gets that eyewall closed off, it's off to the races
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:06 AM
she's going to eat macro by tonight. he still has a lot of vorticity around him, so the absorb might 'supercharge' her
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:06 AM
Oooh, I’ll look at the hollow former shell of Marco
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:21 AM
microwave shows eye is complete. waitign for cloud response
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 09:23 AM
HWRF wants this storm to have a large eye for some reason.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:24 AM
recon just found a 989, she's going fast
i only had her at 979 by tonight. might have been too high
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:33 AM
Two recon flights are in #Laura currently & confirm its a #hurricane. However, rapid intensification does not appear imminent (yet). Earlier 85GHz microwave pass showed structure remains tilted w/ height to S. Until tilt is reduced, slow intensification more likely in short ...
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:04 AM
SST in Gulf of Mexico near TX Coast are 80-90F this morning based off buoy data. (edited)
Same goes for eastern portion.
Saw one that is 91 F near FL at 12 UTC.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 10:12 AM
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
OOF 6
SFMRs in the flight didn’t even approach that. Must be a mistype or a visual measurement
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:14 AM
6z HWRF has her at low Cat 4 during landfall, but I’m looking at others.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 10:15 AM
HWRF has always been going towards the high end.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:17 AM
Yep. It does usually.
That’s why I’m looking at other models. However, the SST is pretty warm
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 11:00 AM
New warnings: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 11:02 AM
Fresh 10am cones
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 25-Aug-20 11:05 AM
Didn't really shift west, did it?
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:14 AM
9-13 ft storm surge Hank
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 11:15 AM
it wobbles back and forth both sides of the TX/LA border. 6z NAM had it on the TX side, 12z back on the LA side
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 11:23 AM
We could see the first extreme wind warnings since Michael at landfall
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 11:25 AM
I bet
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:33 AM
Which livestream to follow, Hurricane Track, or Reed Timmer...
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 25-Aug-20 11:36 AM
I mean landfall is gonna be in the middle of the night so none of the livestreams are going to be that appealing to me
this 5
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:40 AM
Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr VF VF VF VF
VF is not good
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
looks like the stage is set for RI. now we wait
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 25-Aug-20 11:50 AM
Is the center vertically lined up, or is still tilted?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:51 AM
getting hard to tell under the current convection scheme. but microwave shows a giant blob at the center, which means it's likely still tilted
EURO. OOF
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:52 AM
GOOOD MORNING SPORTS FANS
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:53 AM
that feeling when even the euro wants to drop high end cat 4's on houston
when the worst case scenario is the master member...
that's not the ensemble folks, that's the official euro forecast. high end cat 4 into houston. WHERE IS YOUR GOLDEN GOD NOW?
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 11:58 AM
Someone tell Houston to make amends with weather gods
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 12:00 PM
cat 4 into houston? i've seen this one before..
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:03 PM
this is what they get for cheating at baseball
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 12:05 PM
They didn’t deserve this for cheating at baseball
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 25-Aug-20 12:06 PM
they deserved worse for cheating at baseball.
they deserved to be banned for a season.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 12:07 PM
Let's not put baseball into this. No one deserves a Cat 3+ hurricane hit them.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:08 PM
let us have mercy on the people of houston. except for joel osteen and the astros.
For those of you saying a surge can't go 50 miles inland. I present the surge watches
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 25-Aug-20 12:10 PM
if you consider southern Louisiana "land" sure it can go 50 miles inland
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 12:11 PM
For reference, Rita's surge made it on to I-10 in SW LA.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:12 PM
the issue is, nearly 300000 people live in that quasi-land area from beaumont to lafayette
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 25-Aug-20 12:12 PM
not epic
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:12 PM
and when the bayou's fill up, they don't drain right away, they wiill be flooded, or cut off for potentially weeks
this is the sort of storm that moves or destroys entire bayous for decades, like katrina did
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 12:14 PM
That’s what you get for very flat yet swampy lands at or below sea level for miles inland.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:16 PM
the lakefront at lake charles is 9 feet above sea level. it will be topped. the downtown area is only 15 feet up and could face serious issues
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:27 PM
this is of coures assuming the HWRF is right, and euro is wrong. if euro is right, move it all over to houston
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 12:38 PM
Well if Euro is right, it’s game over for Houston. I doubt Houston can handle Laura well three years after Harvey
Harvey did quite a number on Houston.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 12:42 PM
Looks to me off the last few images of visible and water vapor that there is some dry air interacting with the core of the storm. And that the LLC may be to the NW of the latest hot tower. (edited)
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 12:50 PM
Doesn't seem to be struggling
Gradual intensification is expected until tonight
Since it's currently under a cold wake/eddy
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 12:52 PM
Harvey is another type of storm though @GanondorfMain7606 were it just giving us so much rain. Ike was fine for West Houston besides wind.
Downtown also suffered with a decent amount of wind damage. But that is all it was. Ike was a High End Cat2 at landfall though.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 12:59 PM
BREAKING: Calcasieu Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for the parish ahead of Hurricane #Laura. It begins immediately. This includes Lake Charles. Heed evacuation orders.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:00 PM
HWRF comes in a little weaker. cat 3. but moved west. into beaumont
looks to be a very large storm at landfall. so the surge will impact the entire LA coast
i dont see any dry air infiltration on WV. i do see some REALLY cold cloud tops just E of the center. the rotation has been lost in the convection. we'll have to wati for the CDO to spread out for a few hours to find the center
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:08 PM
Lot of deep convection there in Laura... @Sean H(Houghton,MI) Yeah, you’re right. Harvey poured tons of rain there. Still, doesn’t change the fact that Laura can cause issues for Houston
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:15 PM
she's gone to pink! those cloud tops are the coldest yet. and teh southern outflow channel is online. once the north channel sets up she'll be in business
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:16 PM
Beautiful outflow on the east and south side. Still restricted to the north and west. Need that Nrly shear to relax.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:16 PM
zero lightning. the dry air is gone. she's gonna really start going now
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:22 PM
I am learning a lot reading all of these posts. However, in order to get the bigger picture, do any of you have any good resources for me to learn tropical weather? Say on youtube? Thanks
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:25 PM
i would watch levi's posts on tropicaltidbits
sadly, tropical meteorology isn't even taught in most meteo programs. it's pretty rare. i had zero tropical met in my bachelors of met.
i do however, READ A TON of lit and white papers. those are the best for learning about tropical habits, however they are very dry and aimed at post-graduates
also, read every single forecast discussion. learn the terms, learn what things mean in the long term
👍 2
also, the weather / science part is important, but knowing local geography and trends are key. like knowing that the sabine river won't be able to drain if there is onshore winds. or that lake charles, despite being 30 miles from the coast, is very likely to get storm surge. or that the i-10 will dissapear if anything stronger than cat2 happens
gonna have a bad time.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:34 PM
Let me preface this... This sounds bad This looks bad This is really bad
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:34 PM
red is 9+ feet of storm surge above ground level. aka RED MEANS DEAD
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:35 PM
Calling it now. Laura would be retired after this year
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:35 PM
How would this stack up to previous major hurricanes
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:35 PM
Apparently Dorian was not retired
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
They are going to retire it, they just haven't yet
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
ah
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
I seriously doubt they keep a storm that landfell at 185
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
comparing to other storms, this will have more surge damage than IKE over a larger area than IKE, but not as high as katrina
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
I would hope that is the case, hard to get more devestating than that B**** was
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
They will reconsider Dorian next year...
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM
hmm alright interesting
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM
Pretty sure it drove a species to extinction due to the excessive deforestation
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM
Dorian? (edited)
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM
Yeah
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM
i dont expect more than 15" of rain in E TX, however the rivers and dams are already full. so they could easily top. in addition, on-shore winds will prevent several major rivers from draining
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:38 PM
Considering that Dorian got caught in logjam as Cat 5 and ended up sitting in one spot for few days...
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:38 PM
The main impact will be the surge. The winds/rain are lesser I would think with this system. Definitly not Harvey rain. Or Camile wind. But widespread surge far inland will blow people away I think
Hopefully not literaly
🙏 1
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:39 PM
surge warning up to 13 feet now. that will be in downtown lake charles.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:40 PM
Dorian (and other 2019 TCs) wasn’t voted for retirement this year because lot of WMO meetings and voting were cancelled this spring, but WMO will make decisions for both 2019 and 2020 (including Dorian and Laura) next spring. @Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)
👍 3
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:41 PM
I am new to this. This is the first Hurricane season that I have closely followed. I did follow Dorian last year though
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:41 PM
I remember my first hurricane that I closely followed was Oscar back in '18
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:42 PM
Katrina was first one I’ve followed
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:42 PM
first hurricane i followed was andrew. and i'm not even that old lol
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:43 PM
I was a kid then... I also followed Sandy, Irene, Matthew, Patricia, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, and Dorian
A little bit on Issac and Earl
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM
My first memory I can put an accurate date to was hiding in the basement while Opal thrashed the pines outside so I got an early start lol
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM
I am from MN, so tropical weather is pretty far removed. Also, Meteorology is a side interest for me
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM
i remember the 1995 hurricane season. now that was when things got really exciting
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM
NCAR has research lab devoted to TC
My mentors are TC mets.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 01:45 PM
Wish I had been more than 4 years old in 1995
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:45 PM
before 1995, there wasn't much coverage. TWC covered andrew but it was all remote. 1995 was the first in-person shots
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:45 PM
before 1995, there wasn't much coverage. TWC covered andrew but it was all remote. 1995 was the first in-person shots
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Wrong. Dennis Smith was in Coral Gables, FL for Andrew's landfall. Only TWC met to be in a cat 5. They started liveshots from storms with Gilbert in 1988.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:46 PM
My dad got some of Hugo when he was in Marines.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:47 PM
ah thats right, if forgot about dennis smith. wow that was a long time ago
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:47 PM
Yeah. Andrew was my first hurricane. I watched it all night on TWC.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 01:49 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:49 PM
Laura’s definitely getting the show on the road.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:50 PM
I am planning to buckle down and watch Laura. Not sure the best ways to do it though. I am considering buying patreon on HurricaneTrack. Not sure what sources people use. Will there be a live stream here on Discord?
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:50 PM
We should probably bring hurricane talk to the atlantic basin channel
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:50 PM
We should ask mods or admins
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:54 PM
there is a channel for people who will be riding out the storm
speaknig of andrew, his impact on southern louisiana i think is a good proxy for this hurricane
storm surge deep into he bayous, 115mph landfall. significnat, but not incredible wind damage
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:57 PM
Is it possible to get Ground Zero role here? Since I have my parents in the area and friends. But Im located in MI currently.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:57 PM
Depends on RI in Laura.
Models don’t usually handle RI well.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:58 PM
I'm just waiting to see an eye peak out
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:58 PM
ships is calling for 25kts / 24 hours to happen. good odds. the RIPA agrees
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:59 PM
Euro goes from 990 mb to 963 mb in 24 hours.
Hank 4
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 01:59 PM
im from NB, so tropical weather isnt tooo far fetched for me, first hurricane i can remember is sandy dropping like 10 inches of snow (lol) (edited)
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 02:00 PM
Euro has 940 mb at hr 38. Landfall very near Galveston.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:01 PM
Euro has been consistently going for that Galveston landfall lol.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:02 PM
937 mb storm at landfall for euro, damn
Hank 3
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:03 PM
euro doesn't even process RI properly. so that's a slow and steady intensification forecast
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 02:03 PM
Is it just me or does it appear that outflow to the NE has really improved over the past hour
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:04 PM
yup, the NE outflow channel is beginning
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:04 PM
Here we go ladies and gentlemen.... here we see her getting the show on the road.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:05 PM
Won’t be getting recon for another 5-6 hours
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:06 PM
Atleast you get Satellite imagery updates youll just have to wait for the numbers.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:07 PM
flight 18 just left for laura
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:07 PM
Believe it’s upper level recon
So will be flying around it
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 02:07 PM
Could see see an 👁️ poke out before sunset
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:08 PM
(Updates Every 5 Minutes)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:09 PM
levi's comments on the eye being large and ragged, agrees with the models. big eye at first. slow strengthening. then it will tightening and really juice up, and be largely immune to share for some time
cloud tops making the classic "S" shape on satelite when things start to get going. outflow bands above new towers on N and S sides
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:14 PM
I can see more deep convection to the S of center from infrared satellite.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:15 PM
Well got access to the webcams at my parents house. Got eyes on the ground for West Houston
The 12z European model's operational run has come in slightly further to the East, but more intense. On track, it is now in pretty good agreement with the GFS and HWRF models. Some models still a bit further west. New @NHC_Atlantic track forecast at 4pm CT.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:22 PM
12z euro
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:23 PM
937 mb... Hank
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:41 PM
visible shows a nice comma hook now. towers on all sides forming. the big dry slot from earlier wasnt a dry slot after all, the beginning of an eye
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:45 PM
This thing might RI sooner than expected if that is the case.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:47 PM
^
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:50 PM
It's def got the look on IR of an intensifying cane
Also outflow channel looking more healthy by the frame.
Also the lack of lightning by the core now tells me this thing finally stabilized and pulled together the dynamics in it's core region.
It's all uphill from here
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:52 PM
70kts official
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:53 PM
NHC?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM
1pm advisory said 65, but the automated update said 70
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM
ATCF said 70 knots yes
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM
Also I don't know why ADT has been having so much trouble with Laura
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.3 / 989.3mb/ 51.0kt
It's way off.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM
Nhc will be at least 80 mph at 5pm
My guess is it's a nascent eye forced by subsidence from that last huge burst, but there is definitely still a weak SW eyewall. https://t.co/LKJCxcJrtr
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:56 PM
ADT doesnt' like mature low-level cyclones /w poor cloud presentation
dvorak is totally cloud based, so weak IR signature makes it less accurate. it also doesn't work great for hurricanes w/o an eye
18 Z Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 42.0% 29.4% 24.4% 15.3% 17.9% 12.6% 14.8% Logistic: 14.0% 35.5% 24.9% 26.4% 15.5% 26.5% 15.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 21.7% 37.4% 14.7% 1.8% 0.3% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.2% 38.3% 23.0% 17.5% 10.4% 16.2% 9.4% 5.6% DTOPS: 32.0% 73.0% 41.0% 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:59 PM
So which row should I be looking at?
Also new tower in SW quadrant per IR
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 03:00 PM
the most important is the top row, SHIPS
10-20% = concerned, 20-40% = likely, 40%+ = lock it in
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 03:01 PM
Given the last frame it does seem to be doing a good job of having the deep convection wrap all the way around
Once SW quadrant is secured it's off to the races.
Also according to WV dry air isn't entraining much.
SW Quad being walled-off should seal it.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:22 PM
Interesting appearance
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:22 PM
Ah I was just about to share that.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:22 PM
If the eyewall closes off and that dry slot decides to become the eye, we're making good time on heading for major intensity
Figured more of a CDO appearance today but hey Laura has her own ideas
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:23 PM
Yeah she always been on her own with ideas
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 03:28 PM
We're a mosquito's fart away from a bad time here.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:30 PM
Very much so Chris
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:34 PM
convective burst on the SW side
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:34 PM
It is getting close for that eye
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 03:41 PM
IR shows nice towers on either side of the slot
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:44 PM
Yeah you can see them pretty well on the one i sent also
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 25-Aug-20 03:47 PM
The CB had some lightning in it, at least according to the lightning detection device on GOES-16
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 03:51 PM
that's a lot of pink towers
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:53 PM
Central pressure has to be in the low 980s
CAT2 by 12am tomorrow isn't out of the question at this point- RI is possible after sundown @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 04:00 PM
last dvorak estimate came in at 75 kts
this 3
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:11 PM
That's some serious convection in the SW quad now, she looks like she's setting up to go buzzsaw.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 04:11 PM
See if it wraps around or not
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:12 PM
At the very least it's locking out the dry air.
It will get really serious once she begins to eat Marco's remnants.
Probably in about 12 hours.
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Jack | (Findlay, OH) 25-Aug-20 04:14 PM
Don't see how it eating Marco will do much
There's not exactly much left
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Laura quite a bit NE of forecast in the short term
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:23 PM
@Jack | (Findlay, OH) Marco left remnant moisture for Laura to feed on while approaching landfall.
The remnant moisture is currently eastward but will move westward.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 04:48 PM
Looks like all the models are agreeing for the most part. Just the exact location is unknown.
this 2
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 04:50 PM
cudos to NHC for not shifting the track just yet
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 04:54 PM
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:56 PM
When is next recon?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 04:56 PM
It should have taken off
Interesting it hasn’t yet. Was scheduled to depart at 4:30 pm Eastern
Flight Two - Teal 74 Plane: WC-130J Take Off: 4:30 PM EDT From: KCHS Fix Time: 7:30 PM EDT, 1:30 AM EDT Time on Station: 7:00 PM EDT - 1:30 AM EDT Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet Flight Three - NOAA 43 Plane: WP-3D Orion Take Off: 5:00 PM EDT From: KLAL Fix Time: 8:00 PM EDT Time on Station: 6:00 PM EDT - 12:00 AM EDT Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 04:59 PM
We at least have the 5PM flight to look forward to, which is out of FL so a much shorter flight
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 05:00 PM
It looks like it just took off @Alex V (Wausau, WI)
NOAA49 already there
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 05:28 PM
Laura starting to take on the buzzsaw look too
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 05:31 PM
Define "Buzzsaw look"
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:32 PM
Outflow channels in all quadrants, banded structure, clear/clearing eye
👌 2
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 05:33 PM
apologize for not making myself clear
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:33 PM
Yup
Seeing it now on infrared
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:34 PM
Holy crap.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 05:35 PM
It’s trying to wrap. This has been quick
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:36 PM
Lot of deep convection too.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 05:37 PM
Those towers are really flying around that center
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:38 PM
No eye yet but almost there... and there’s poor Marco sitting off LA shore
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:47 PM
Lock it in... we got likely RI in progress
East 4
backup 2
category4 2
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 05:59 PM
That hot tower made it to the NE quad so far and is going strong
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:59 PM
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:00 PM
If that hot tower in the SE quad had made it further around I would be very confident that the eyewall is about to close
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:01 PM
And you can literally see hot towers on visible satellites too.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 25-Aug-20 06:03 PM
Looks like recon's first pass is gonna be from the NE quadrant to the SW quadrant (edited)
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 06:08 PM
"Buckle up, its going to be a bumpy ride"
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:11 PM
Looks like they are possibly going from the NW. Currently directly north of the core.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 06:15 PM
Lightning in eyewall hot tower.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 06:18 PM
dry air???
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 06:19 PM
No, RI in progress
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 06:20 PM
ah
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:20 PM
RI isn’t necessarily in progress.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:20 PM
I’d say starting likely
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 06:22 PM
The system is actually doing a good job of locking dry air out.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:22 PM
It really depends on how far this hot tower makes it around the core. RI can’t really happen until the eyewall is closed. The Tropical storms that RI into major hurricanes super fast typically manage to close an eyewall before winds catch up.
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 06:23 PM
Tell that to Michael with its open eyewall until the day of landfall
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:23 PM
Michael: am I a joke to you?
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:25 PM
That’s true. There are exceptions but even that had 2-3 hot towers (iirc) that were flying around for a while before it closed off.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:26 PM
Well yeah there’s always an exception to rule... except for laws of physics.
😆 2
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 06:29 PM
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42001 (25.942N 89.657W) - MID GULF - 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42395 (26.404N 90.792W) - Shell Alcyone Buoy - C16522 - Walker Ridge 552.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:32 PM
Eye wall lightning boys 👀🚨 (edited)
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:34 PM
Euro showing some uhh... pretty interesting hodographs near the central TX/LA border after landfall (edited)
Tornado potential is definitely there.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 06:36 PM
the 1km and 3km helicity ...
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:36 PM
there's literal off the chart hodographs at the time of landfall as well
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:37 PM
I’ve seen insane helicities in Irma while doing environmental analysis for research
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:37 PM
just uhhh.. ignore the fact the dew point is several degrees higher than the temp for a decent portion of the lower atmosphere troll
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 06:37 PM
those helicities would suggest potential for strong tornadoes...
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:38 PM
Should if minisups or supes sustain themselves in powerful shear
this 2
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:38 PM
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:39 PM
There’s a hodo floating around from Harvey that was launched by OU right before landfall. The balloon went almost all the way around the eyewall
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:40 PM
This hodograph (in the outer bands when Laura is positioned over the Central TX/LA border) looks pretty favorable for a few tornadoes
hodograph porn
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:42 PM
It can be difficult for minisupes to sustain themselves with small CAPE and powerful shear sometimes
Lol
Hodo porn 18+ only!
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Zach C. (Kelowna, BC) 25-Aug-20 06:43 PM
What I was thinking as well. Pretty lack luster CAPE with high shear like that makes me think they'd just get sheared away
With those specific soundings anyways
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:44 PM
embedded tropical spinups are much more likely with this environment than any traditional supercell setups with the same environment, some pockets of higher instability will probably exist as well (edited)
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:45 PM
The hot tower that’s on the north side of the core has weakened a bit. May flare up again but we will have to see if it can make it through the drier environment that’s on that side of the core
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 06:46 PM
Man the CTCI Model sure does hate Galveston bay
and I think it thinks it will be a Cat4
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:50 PM
Hello RI
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 06:51 PM
Any readings from recon yet?
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:51 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:53 PM
Eye peaking. Towers around the NW side. This is what RI looks like
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 06:53 PM
Laura's structure continues to improve this evening, with two vortical hot towers rotating around the center. Although the broad nature of the inner core may slow intensification, we may not be far off from seeing a closed eyewall & clearing eye. Recon will be telling shortly...
this 1
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:54 PM
The tower that’s made it almost all the way around is restrengthening.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:54 PM
There are new hot tower off to NW
Maybe?^
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:55 PM
With lightning
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:55 PM
See that too
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:55 PM
The southern tower has kinda fizzled out a bit. Not super strong now
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 06:56 PM
This might affect recon actually, they have a VERY hard time making passes with hot towers popping up around the center like this (edited)
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:56 PM
There’s a new one in the SE quad that formed in the wake of the big tower
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:56 PM
Saw that too.
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:57 PM
Eye structure on shortwave IR
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 06:58 PM
Convective burst in the northern eyewall, rotating quickly around to the NW and W sides. Complete with some lightning too. This is a good indication that the real eye is about to pop soon.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:58 PM
Getting there...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM
The new eye is probably 30-50 miles NE of the forecast path. This could majorly pull models
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM
983.9 extrp
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM
Dvorak had been hinting at borderline cat2 for hours
If we hit cat 2 tonight, cat 4 is well within reach before landfall
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:01 PM
Models often underestimate RI
Just saying
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:01 PM
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 42.0% 29.4% 24.4% 15.3% 17.9% 12.6% 14.8%
65 more kts still at 15%. That's high
Cat 5 is still in reach, and still with decent odds
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:03 PM
That’s basically a jump from Cat 1 to 5 within three days
That’s how much 65kt/72 h RI basically is
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:05 PM
Hold on to your hats boys. New RIPA is In
Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 64.7% 38.4% 51.6% 25kt / 24h 60.3% 69.4% 64.9% 30kt / 24h 58.7% 69.4% 64.1% 35kt / 24h 57.2% 69.4% 63.3% 40kt / 24h 54.2% 69.4% 61.8% 45kt / 36h 39.3% 41.8% 40.6% 55kt / 36h 24.0% 23.4% 23.7%
40 kts over 50%>. 55 kts 1 in 4
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:07 PM
So Laura has a strong chance to make a run for Cat 4
At least ^
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:07 PM
More than 50% of cat 4 or greater
RIPA tends to fluctuate less than ships does. It's pretty nice
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:09 PM
Can see the volume of those hot towers pretty nicely from the edge of GOES-W
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:09 PM
Deep convection nearly wrapped, lightning under the average convection in the gap shows something is ready to burst out of there.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 07:11 PM
The SE quad has really weak winds. Kind of surprising
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:12 PM
Hmm? Interesting
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:12 PM
The deep convection is still wrapping around to that region, once the eyewall is closed that should change.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 07:13 PM
984 mb dropsonde
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:13 PM
That’s a clean eye hit.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:14 PM
Almost there.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:14 PM
Definitely seems on or ahead of schedule
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:15 PM
The coldness of the towers concern me. Those temps are reserve for lower latitude storms and cat 5 beasts. This girl has some serious horsepower under her (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:16 PM
I wouldn't rule out a 120-130 kt peak at this point.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:16 PM
Gulf of Mexico had been so damn warm. It’s basically a giant hot cup of tea.
No wonder why this girl got some serious horsepower given decreasing shear on top of sultry warm GoM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:18 PM
But it's only gonna be a cat 3
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Aaron (Bethany, OK) 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM
LOL
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM
BuT iT’s OnLy GoNnA bE a CaT 3
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Aaron (Bethany, OK) 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM
Oh
I thought that said Hurricane Laura for a sec lmao
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM
Michael...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM
Contrast, compare.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:20 PM
And Michael had more shear to deal with than Laura probably will (edited)
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:20 PM
"only"
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM
If a storm is showing serious possibility of being a major you should treat it like it has the potential to hit at least 130 kts. Because that is what every other major in the basin has done these past few years.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM
I'd be afraid to go to sleep now and be waking up to a much stronger storm
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM
Only gonna be a cat 3
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM
RI is a pain in the butt to forecast accurately too.
B4 It’S oNlY gOnNa Be CaT 3
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:23 PM
We all knew this was going to be a big storm when it was still a wave labeled "Big Chungus" Laura is living up to the Big Chungus name, her big windfield is to be reckoned with as well.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:23 PM
A data buoy 208 NM west of Naples FL- basically way into GoM measured 85 degrees water
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:24 PM
Outflow and convection in all quads looks to have expanded massively in the last 2-3 hours
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 07:24 PM
Wtf
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:26 PM
We have contact, a ring of -75 cloudtops now surrounds the eye.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 07:26 PM
VDM shows no evidence of an eyewall yet
So likely significant strengthening is off the table in the short term
this 2
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:27 PM
Watch it develop quickly.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:27 PM
Buoy data for temperature of GoM.
Station 42002 (Buoy) showing 87.1 F as most recent temperature. (edited)
Just giving you some sense how warm the water is.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:31 PM
So if this makes landfall Thursday night that's Harvey anniversary. Hard OOF
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:32 PM
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 07:33 PM
lightning around the center one more time
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:33 PM
Laura is still cranking out hot towers.
There's huge thinning out at center from infrared.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:35 PM
So if this makes landfall Thursday night that's Harvey anniversary. Hard OOF
@Sean H(Houghton,MI) Hm? Harvey's landfall was today 3 years ago
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:36 PM
Landfall was on the 26th but My parents started flooding on the 27th @Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:36 PM
this 3
Microwave. It's almost there
That was a couple hours ago. Waiting for next scan
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:37 PM
I had a connecting flight through Houston during Harvey and got stuck in Canada for a couple days til a rescheduled flight was available... watching landfall thru crappy hotel internet without international mobile data was certainly not very easy
The speed of those hot towers racing around the center is getting more and more rapid looks like
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:39 PM
Oh wow I kinda feel dumb, I didn't know Harvey had a number of landfalls
I was thinking of the one from 10:00 on 8/25
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:44 PM
Small dot. Not sure if its the eye. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:45 PM
Looks like a cloud shadow
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:45 PM
Yeah. Hard to tell with the grid lines.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 07:48 PM
That's to small to be the eye. It's a shadow.
On IR there is some warming where the eye would be. Could start to try to pop out a bit soon
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 07:50 PM
That's def shadow
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 07:53 PM
👍 4
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:53 PM
Don't rely on visible for eyes. Use Dvorak or infrared
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 07:54 PM
Often you get an eye pop out on vis before IR
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 25-Aug-20 07:54 PM
983mb Jesus
Considerable drop from 990 earlier today
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:57 PM
Massive storms on west side with lightning. And there is definitely an eye in That shadow. IR has a warm spot (edited)
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 07:58 PM
looking at IR those storms Royce are rotating around the center
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:00 PM
Sandwich does not lie
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Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 25-Aug-20 08:01 PM
...and CoD doesn't have zoom 😦 (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:01 PM
But my phone does! Your bummed
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 08:01 PM
Try this one. Higher resolution more zoom
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:03 PM
Doesn't work on my mobile. Lame
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:03 PM
My laptop can zoom in
I’m not on my laptop rn, though.
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Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 25-Aug-20 08:04 PM
rammb slider is awesome with zoom, but it doesn't have sandwich
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 08:07 PM
Outer bands are hitting one of the buoys now
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 08:30 PM
Looks like 982.3mb extrapolate
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 08:31 PM
recon had 981 mb pressure at 718 PM CDT
watching the recon data here on GREarth
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 08:33 PM
Oh yeah. Missed those. Slightly offset from the wind minimum
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:33 PM
One thing I am noticing in the latest recon data is that although the peak winds have only come up a bit compared to the pressure falls, the wind field is much more symmetric than earlier, with 60-70 kt FL winds in each quadrant. This will allow for symmetric intensification....
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 08:34 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:34 PM
Get the fuck out of Beaumont.
This is not a warning, this is a threat. Get the fuck out of Beaumont and lake Charles
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:35 PM
Storm surge ain’t something ya wanna mess with.
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 08:36 PM
Texas City levee and dike. The live webcam will broadcast during the storm and runs on battery power and 4G cellular. http://www.texas-city-tx.org/page/city.camera
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:50 PM
B4 we wake up in morning to see Laura's eye in all of its glory.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 25-Aug-20 08:56 PM
Laura is making a any% speedrun trying to RI
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:57 PM
It had been posted already.
I think it was dropped in eye, and Laura had started on RI
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 25-Aug-20 09:00 PM
geez she is big
looks like she still needs to wrap that convection around then all systems are a go for more intensification
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 09:05 PM
still a tiny bit lopsided I would think
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:05 PM
Same... it would take some time
I believe RI is in progress though.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:31 PM
S-N pass, entering S eyewall (edited)
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 09:32 PM
Looks like 75 kt SMFR?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:33 PM
The 75 kt one is flagged, more likely 65, but this is the "clean" side of the core.
👍 3
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 09:35 PM
I wonder if the track is going to bump a little further west based on surface obs+tonight’s upper air profile.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:36 PM
It’s been moving north/east of forecast the past 12 hours
If they shift it, probably be minor
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:38 PM
From the look of it, the hot towers are still going at it
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Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 25-Aug-20 09:38 PM
models also shifting slightly east
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 09:40 PM
Amazing microwave pass
troll
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:42 PM
F
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:42 PM
Of course it is going to break when we need it.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 09:42 PM
I love how it cuts off directly where Laura is
BUST
BUST 2
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 09:43 PM
I dont understand why this is so unbelievably funny to me
Just, a black hole hurricane
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 09:44 PM
No. The 7 PM landfall is virtually identical to 10 AM.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:45 PM
Looks like they ran into some turbulence
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:46 PM
A little bumpy ride. Nothing to see here. Move on. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:47 PM
980
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 09:48 PM
[#NerdTweet] #Laura's eye was there for a moment, but is now hidden. This isn't a sign of weakening here, but of intensification. Buoyant convective bursts (gray/pink) are spreading clouds over the eye while releasing heat inside the radius of maximum wind, causing pressure f...
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:50 PM
Who would think this is a weakening storm?
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Aug-20 09:51 PM
Holly Beach, Louisiana Cam 1. There will be another that goes up at some point. #LAwx #LSMwx
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:51 PM
Sat presentation points towards strengthening and recon keeps finding a millibar or two lost each pass.
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:52 PM
Like I said I believe that this girl is undergoing RI (edited)
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 09:53 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:58 PM
Buoy 42001 has sustained 40 mph winds with gusts to near 55 mph
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 09:59 PM
I wonder what the sea looks like out there
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:59 PM
It’ll be a close call if it gets hit by the strongest winds in the north quad
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Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 10:06 PM
WTAF
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 10:11 PM
It's got The Look
this 4
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 10:15 PM
I know this feels like I’m stating the obvious, but something tells me this will be strengthening all the way to shore, like Hanna did. (edited)
this 5
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 10:38 PM
The last dropsonde splash into #Laura's eye found a minimum central pressure of ~978mb, which is ~ 5 millibars lower than what was reported about 2.5 hrs ago. #Laura is undoubtedly intensifying
Hank 6
this 4
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 10:51 PM
Advisory out. 978 mb and 90 mph
5 knots off a category 2
120 mph peak now
14 foot surge forecast
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GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:56 PM
Beaumont has so many warnings/alerts at once
Lake Charles...
Hey I’m signing off for the night but I’ll check back in the morning. (edited)
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:09 PM
82kt flight level eastern side of the core. I think that’s one of the highest so far
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 25-Aug-20 11:11 PM
5 mb in 2.5 hours, impressive
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 11:12 PM
77 knots SFMR too
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:14 PM
DVORAK just came in at 90kts
storm surge will be into downtown lake charles
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:15 PM
I think this calls for...the music... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbxdyg5IvV0
This amazing song, "Storm Alert" by Stephen Arnold, was featured on The Weather Channel. From 2005 - 2008. It was heard whenever a Hurricane Watch and or Warning is issued to any part of the country. The song is typically heard during the Local on The 8s. There is no voice ov...
redtwc 4
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:18 PM
Center drop was 981 at 16kt. So ~978-979. Pretty much same as last fix
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:20 PM
Things are getting real in Port Arthur, Texas, where a mandatory evacuations is in effect. Businesses are shuttered and even gas stations are closed down. A true testament to how serious the situation is? The ever-illuminated Waffle House sign went dark. @capitalweather htt...
Likes
182
🧇 3
Hank
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:21 PM
Outflow to the NW looks like trash right now. Looks fine everywhere else
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:24 PM
i think we have a little dry air comgin in from the NW> there is lightning in the SE quad wrapping around. that's probably from dry air being sucked in
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:26 PM
Going to be a long day tomorrow...
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:26 PM
IR getting there right now.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:26 PM
Good thing I'm stocked up on coffee...
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:27 PM
Get your sleep while you can...
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Aug-20 11:27 PM
sleep now. GOing to be a long night Wednesday.
this 5
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 11:29 PM
That dry air band that tried to disrupt #Laura has been blocked by strong convection, which means the TC can strengthen likely a little faster https://t.co/TPElg0MUhz
Hank 5
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 25-Aug-20 11:30 PM
Laura said gtfo of here dry air
Ain't havin it
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 11:34 PM
Looks like this buoy might have recorded a rogue wave
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 25-Aug-20 11:35 PM
Was going to do a live forecast discussion on hail trace from our hotel but decided we’re hitting the hay early. Tomorrow is going to be a long one
this 4
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:38 PM
I’m not sure what that dude was tweeting about cuz the dry air isn’t cut off. Center of circulation is at the X. It’s very open to the dry air band.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:39 PM
I am pretty sure the center is where that red dot is
But I am a noob at this, so I am probably wrong
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 11:49 PM
It's not that far west
Plot out the 11PM position, it's near the middle of the CDO
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM
It’s not the red dot. It’s that far west per ADT. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt13L.html
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM
ADT just uses center interpolation which is outdated and in this case off
We have much more recent recon fixes
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM
ADT has been useless for this storm so far.
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Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM
uh, no, this thing does not have an exposed center
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:53 PM
It’s definitely not that far west
You can watch it donut in the last 20 or so frames on the slider site.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:55 PM
Using the last center fix ~89.5W, 25N, that blue x is where the center is. The IR image is from 0247, about the time of the center pass
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:57 PM
she's close to cat 2
RIPA has 50/50 odds of 115 kts at max vel
expect the forecast creep to continue
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 12:14 AM
80 kt SFMR
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 12:23 AM
Absolutely rapid!!!
Ok I'm really glad the border is closed because it definitely saved my life
I was gonna be going to Lake Charles at some point 😬 😬
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:27 AM
Actually I changed my mind after looking at SRM. @Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) is right.
👍 3
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 12:35 AM
Sustained winds of 49 knots at buoy 42001. Gusts up to 58 knots
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:36 AM
The reason ADT was doing bad early on with this was because the circulation wasn’t stacked. Circulation on satellite tends to be mid level, not low level. Now that the storm is vertically stacked ADT should do a much better job.
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:54 AM
Aye, you can now see it colocated on low, mid and high WV channels
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:31 AM
68 knot wind gust at buoy 42001
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:32 AM
dualing towers with lightnign on E and W sides. it's on folks
levi clocks this in at 1.7 mb / hour. which is bomb worthy. 40mb / day. 940 landfall at this MODERATE rate
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:33 AM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:50 AM
VDM that got lost somewhere
24 n miles wide eye with it open to the east
93 knot flight level winds
Hurricane #Laura Advisory 25A: Laura Rapidly Intensifying. Expected to Produce a Life-Threatening Storm Surge, Extreme Winds, and Flash Flooding Over Eastern Texas and Louisiana Later Today. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
category2 5
105 mph category 2 hurricane
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 02:00 AM
It's at 90kts already??
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:00 AM
Hank
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:01 AM
Apparently there’s an AF plane out there but it’s not being transmitted publicly
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 02:01 AM
Upper air or low level?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:03 AM
Low level
That’s how they came to the 105 mph conclusion
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 02:05 AM
Why's it not being transmitted?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:06 AM
No idea
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:18 AM
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020 A. 26/05:08:50Z B. 25.38 DEG N 089.98 DEG W C. 700 MB 2922 M D. 979 MB E. 120 DEG 4 KT F. OPEN E G. C20 H. 85 KT I. 078 DEG 26 NM 05:01:00Z J. 157 DEG 91 KT K. 079 DEG 30 NM 05:00:00Z L. 86 KT M. 046 DEG 28 NM 05:20:00Z N. 140 DEG 104 KT O. 046 DEG 33 NM 05:21:30Z P. 12 C / 3049 M Q. 15 C / 3054 M R. 10 C / NA S. 1234 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 NM U. AF309 1913A LAURA OB 31 MAX FL WIND 104 KT 046 / 33 NM 05:21:30Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 047 / 7 NM FROM FL C
104 knot Flight level wind
Hank 8
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:22 AM
Well I thought it might pass Hanna a little before I went to bed but not by so much. Didn't see that coming so quickly
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:31 AM
At long last, looks to be an actual eye forming
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:40 AM
105mph has already invalidated half of the current intensity models
basically we're down to euro, hwrf, hmon, gfs, ctx, all of which are thinking upper cat 3 / cat 4
ships still gives cat 5 a shot, with cat 4 being better odds than not
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:09 AM
I'm not going to be surprised if I wake up to a 100kt+ major hurricane
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 03:52 AM
Is that the eye finally?
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:45 AM
I went to bed when it was at 80 mph and woke up to a 105 category 2 hurricane
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:49 AM
Won't be surprised if it is a Category 3 since the cloud tops are wrapping around the eye so quickly.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:03 AM
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:16 AM
...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.72 INCHES
Also that windfield is massive
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 05:36 AM
category4 Hank (edited)
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:02 AM
It doesnt appear as a cat 4 landfall at least
Itll be affected by shear shortly before landfall so theres that
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:21 AM
Morning y’all. Just catching up on this girl.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:22 AM
She exploded overnight, on the verge of being a major.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:26 AM
Damn
I saw it coming though.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:36 AM
I’m getting a quick shower then I’ll set up my laptop so I can see visible satellite
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:37 AM
969
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:38 AM
“69”
Still dropping though
So what was the last measurement before that and when?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:45 AM
SFMR ~97 kt, plus the structure of deep spiraling bands wrapping all around the eye. We've got our first major. Probably will be bumped to 115 next update.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:49 AM
Here we go.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:49 AM
Apparently Larua expected to be Cat4?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:50 AM
Other recon also gets SFMR of at least 97 kts, flight level near 100 knots.
This thing went from a TS to a Cat 3 in 24 hours.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:52 AM
That’s what we call RI
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:53 AM
Sounds like a Harvey. Harvey went from Cat1 to Cat4 in 24 hours
Good ol GoM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:54 AM
Another reason to hate GoM other than Dixie screamers in winter.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:54 AM
Yep lol. Why my parents are thinking of moving lol.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:56 AM
Some weakening just before landfall could be good news, but its still gonna have extreme impacts
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:56 AM
Decent looking also with Satellite
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:57 AM
Really waiting for the sun to rise on it
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:57 AM
At this point it doesn't even matter, we are going to have a landfalling major at this point, any weakening before landfall will be minor since it is going to only hit the shear shortly before landfall.
this 3
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM
Yeah, there isn't much difference between 130 and 120
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM
There kinda is.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM
o?
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM
Well with wind yes that's pretty huge lol.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:59 AM
Wind load differences between windspeeds drastically increases once you get past 100 mph
It's on an exponential curve
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:59 AM
hmm didn't think of that as much
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:03 AM
What intrigues me is the amount of lightning in her overnight, both in her core and outer bands. Laura throughout her entire lifespan so far has had more lightning than any other TC I've ever tracked, truly been incredible amounts.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:04 AM
Really? I’ve been sleeping through that!
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 07:05 AM
Lets get into the 950's
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:05 AM
This was from an earlier frame: There were multiple big clusters of lightning like this overnight.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:05 AM
And yeah wind load is exponential. Thus, Hackleburg EF-5 is multiple times more powerful than Cookeville EF-4. Just wind load...
Wow lot of lightning for a TC. Matthew was one of lightning producers too.
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 07:15 AM
A buoy in the northeast eyewall of #Laura measured a wind gust of 107 mph at 4:40am central time.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:22 AM
I have visible up so we wait.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:42 AM
Lightnings are still ongoing in both inner and outer bands
I have both visible and infrared up.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 07:52 AM
**..POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... 7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 26.4°N 91.4°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 963 mb Max sustained: 115 mph
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:53 AM
Wow. Went from a TS to a 3 in 24 hours. The GOMEX never ceases to amaze me.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 07:55 AM
Is it not a 4 yet?
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 07:58 AM
Cat 3. It dropped 5mb in an 1:05 between recon passes so it’s deepening. Really needs it’s eye cleared out before running at 4
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:59 AM
https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1298580219218079744?s=21 Regardless of the eye clearing out, this thing will be a 4 by the end of the day. It’s a mid-grade 3 already.
Latest recon data shows #Laura's central pressure is falling at a tremendous rate this morning, down 5-7 hPa in ~1 hour, indicating rapid intensification.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:03 AM
Eye is still clouded over, but I can see the hint of it.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 08:04 AM
I'd say the eye will probably be pretty clear by noon
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:24 AM
Still cloudy, but I can see subtle hint of it.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 08:24 AM
Laura is still rapidly intensifying. Recent data suggests pressures may be as low as 952 millibars, with winds measured at 125 mph by recent reconnaissance.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:31 AM
Pet peeve: when public facing people tweet out the flight level wind like it’s at the surface and used extrapolated pressures when there’s a perfectly good dropsonde. Wait a couple minutes for the VDM and use the real data. Very few in the public will understand what they are looking at in that chart anyway, and probably will assume it’s surface winds. /end rant
The surface estimate never exceeded 100kt on that pass. This storm is not 125mph
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:33 AM
Hmmm... I see your point
TC isn't my strongest area, but I can see what you're saying now. I'm not as familiar with TC data and measurements as I am with severe weather. @Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) (edited)
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 08:36 AM
Eyewall coming into view of the radar out of lake Charles
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:36 AM
I’m not super strong at TCs but have done some stuff with them. I know enough to know who on Twitter not to trust.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:37 AM
Lmao. I quit Twitter a few months ago, not just because of WxTwitter.
However, I know a few people who are really great with TCs.
Dr. Jonathan Vigh is one of researchers who maintains archive of FLIGHT+ data at NCAR if you know some people at NCAR. @Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:40 AM
Waiting for an update and this will go up even more
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:41 AM
Buoy 42395 is incredible. Waves as high as 38 feet being recorded.
Sustained winds of near 80 mph and gusts to near 110 mph
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:42 AM
She's forecast now to max at 115kts. But RIPA says she can make 130kts today.
She doesn't even have a solid max cold band yet
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:43 AM
Last recon pass showed maybe an early sign of an EWRC
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:43 AM
I don’t know too many people at NCAR. I mainly know grad students and post docs. Some good TC follows on twitter: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits https://twitter.com/JackSillin
Meteorologist @UMiamiRSMAS and CIMAS supporting @HRD_AOML_NOAA. Opinions are mine alone.
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Weather Forecasting | Blogging + Tweeting for @WeatherdotUS | Studying the atmosphere @CornellWeather (‘22) | Admiring nature, especially in the mountains
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An occasionally esoteric UNC-Charlotte Graduate Student w/ a preference for climate dynamics, tropical phenomena, & winter storms. NC State Alum (BS).
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:44 AM
24 hours is an eternity to complete an ERC. If she starts now she'll be done before landfall
Could end up with a speed max right at landfall like Michael
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:45 AM
Perhaps... honestly it have been behaving like Michael (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:45 AM
Can see a double wind maxima in the NE quad. Not showing up in the other quads yet
Also could be something unrelated, I guess we will see (edited)
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 08:47 AM
I think most of the buoy cameras are damaged
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:48 AM
I’m not sure if it’s actually an ERC yet. It may be a function of the storm still organizing. SW quad looks like a bit of a double max but I think the eyewall hasn’t gotten super organized
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:48 AM
Not yet... give it some time. I’m on mobile now so forgive me for typos.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:06 AM
Great news...landfall expected during high tide...
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:08 AM
Add /s
That’s perfect timing/s
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:09 AM
122 knots flight level in the north eyewall
99 knots SFMR
FL winds continue to increase quite rapidly
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:19 AM
103 knots SFMR found now
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:20 AM
hmmm, that's the old graphic. seems discord isn't loading the new one. might have to click link
last nights euro operational model. near cat 5 at landfall after an EWRC
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:26 AM
I’m amazed we don’t have an eye clearing yet
And it’s nearly cat 4
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM
Hank
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM
WISC tropical site is down. bummer
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM
RIP WISC
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM
As a few others have mentioned, recon just found 122 knot flight level winds in the northern semicircle of #Laura's eyewall, which would support an intensity of 110 KTS, meaning that #Laura is almost a category 4 hurricane already. Wut 😱 😰
Hank 4
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:29 AM
HMON still calling for borderline cat 5 landfall. HWRF as mid-cat-4
euro is in between as a high 4
i...really dont have anything to compare this storm to
it's bigger than michael in size, and will likely be a much more impactful with it's surge
so it's a katrina/michael hybrid. which should scare the shit out of anyone in SW LA
this 1
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:36 AM
Ooh yeah that would scare the crap out of SW LA... hopefully enough to get them to evacuate
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:41 AM
surge damange potential rating (based on NHC's forecast, which is low) has laura as 3.6 out of 6. katrina was a 5.2
rita, for reference was a 2.9
so more surge than rita, but less than katrina. more wind damgae than katrina.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:05 AM
959mb from hunters
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:13 AM
952.9 mb extrap. See what the dropsonde gets
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:22 AM
whoops
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 10:23 AM
Oops! I went through Hannas eye last month, but for various reasons have no interest attempting to chase this beast.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:25 AM
OOF
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:25 AM
thonk
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:26 AM
Wow.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:27 AM
I saw hurricane man is hanging well outside the eye zone right now. He might have to re think intercepting this one
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:27 AM
I haven't been following along here lately, but is recon finding the winds catching up with the pressure falls at all? (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:27 AM
That is a very solid band of pain
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:28 AM
There has been some large pressure drops, but the winds haven't responded much
Pressure went down, what... 10 mb, winds went up 5 mph to make it a Cat 3
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:28 AM
Winds aloft are not mixing down to the surface yet. 122kts max so far, so that's about 105-110 surface, but not found by drops yet
So the storm still isn't matured. The eye isn't even clear yet. 6-12 hours before a fully mature storm. Might get interrupted by an ewrc. Cycling during landfall is best case scenario
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:33 AM
Well this escalated
this 3
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:39 AM
Gov. Edwards just announced on TWC talking about storm surge could get to 20 feet.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:40 AM
i told yall 50 miles inland. look at the surge charts. getting close to 50 miles
lake charles about to become a saltwater bay
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:41 AM
hats approaching Ike surge there
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:41 AM
This is bad! This storm is huge too.
🙏 1
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 10:41 AM
On the left, the HWRF model from three days ago. (when Hurricane #Laura was still a tropical storm off the coast of Haiti) On the right, the satellite image from 23 minutes ago. Science works.
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ohshit 5
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:43 AM
Roads are blocked from coastal flooding/storm surge by Madison Canal in Montegut, below the flood wall. Third picture is water in Grand Isle. 📸Nicole Marie & Joseph Woll @HankAllenWX @WGNOtv @NWSNewOrleans
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:49 AM
@Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) based on kinetic energy models, this storm is significantly more poweful than IKE for surge. but not as strong as katrina
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 10:52 AM
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY... 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 27.0°N 92.0°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 125 mph
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:52 AM
145 mph peak now
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:52 AM
Unreal
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:53 AM
Good lord
Ain't ideal
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:55 AM
high tide + nocturnal maximum + finishing RI cycle
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:56 AM
15-20 foot surge
Hank 6
🙏 2
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:57 AM
btw, if you are a local, its pronouced kal-ka-shoo
im sure they will screw it up on the news
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:58 AM
oh god
this is off the chain for a 145 peak
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:59 AM
she did a 27mb/12hr RI.
RIPA says she's got another 20mb left in her
55/48 was in the forecast, so borderline cat 5 is still in the ballpark
"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline."
Hank 6
🙏 2
hurricane man better find high ground in lake chalres, that's his only shot of getting eye and not being dead
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:14 AM
Reed's plan is to head...East
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Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 11:15 AM
how is the fact that this part of TX/LA is swampland going to affect the cane?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:18 AM
Swampland= more area for surge to cover
Since they’re pretty low lying barely 10-20 feet above sea level
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:20 AM
Very very potent drop
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:22 AM
Is it just me or did the hurricane just jog west rather sharply the last several frames of the GOES image? You can see it on IR (edited)
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:22 AM
kind of appears that way
perhaps just a wobble
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Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 11:23 AM
Yeah ive seen some people discussing the westward jog
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:24 AM
we're now into wobble mode. the storm is strong enough to make it's own path. shear will only impact it a little at a time
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Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 11:24 AM
Yep she's just going to do what she wants now
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:25 AM
as the storm gets closer, lake charles will become part of the gulf. landfall won't occur for an extra 1-2 hours, because there will be no long to fall on
so landfall will cross the coast around 1am, but there will be no coast there, so it will hit dry land around 3am
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:25 AM
Going to be a long day boys...
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 11:26 AM
Air Force recon now en route
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 11:26 AM
So with the surge inundating 20-30 miles inland, will that let her strengthen or maintain itself better? Or no because it'll be shallow water?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:26 AM
she should maintain or strengthen all the way until lake charles
unless she is mid-EWRC i dont expect her to drop until at she's above 20ft elevation
brown ocean will turn into actual ocean
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:27 AM
Perhaps, power naps are just about a must
or maybe a 5 hour energy for those hardcore folks
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:33 AM
It's official. I can see the eye.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:34 AM
did i see a 115kt SFMR? 132mph? ugh
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:34 AM
Looks like COD is getting heavy traffic right now
Awesome.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 11:35 AM
From an hour ago. Just came in
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:35 AM
111 knot SFMR
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:36 AM
Dvorak CI at 6.0 RAW T store of 6.7
it's a cat 4 already. and it's moving quickly toward a mid-high cat 4
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:37 AM
Close up view.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:37 AM
dvorak puts it near 120kts
that ike calc is from 12z. it's likely much higher now. we could be looking at a cat 5 on the IKE scale.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:40 AM
Jesus that is some rapid intensification
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:41 AM
Talk about "some" intensification (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:42 AM
visible has the buzzsaw look in full effect
WV shows very strong towers on teh west side. towers /w lightning on the SE side
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:44 AM
One of cells in outer band got Special Marine on it for potential waterspout.
RIP Marco. It looks like Laura had eaten up what was left of Marco too. F for poor Marco.
🇫 1
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:46 AM
Chilling #Laura forecast for the Calcasieu River N of downtown Lake Charles, LA. Crest forecast to top the 1913 #flood of record by over 2 feet, during which "over half of the city" flooded, per NWS. And over 6 feet higher than Rita 2005 crest.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:46 AM
this is crazy
75 to 125 in under 24 hours
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 AM
That's 50 mph intensification.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:49 AM
there are dozens of oil refineries and chemical plants in that area. they will all be underwater. DEEP underwater
just like after harvey, some areas could be forced out for weeks due to chemical spills
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:50 AM
This is really bad.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:51 AM
port arthur up to lake charles is about to become a gianty watery superfund site
houston got really lucky in harvey. there was a benzene plant that was on fire and they managed to put the fire out before it went beirut
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:53 AM
Eye continues clear out, along with several hot towers in the eyewall
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:58 AM
There are a lot of thunderstorms in outer bands too
Interesting that Laura’s circulation had been kicking up thunderstorms in SE TX too
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:00 PM
Getting ridiculous out there, really scary situation boutta be unfolding
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:02 PM
115kts dropsonde. 951 mb
also, TORNADOES gonna be a big deal
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 12:07 PM
Here's some real talk. If a 145-mph Laura were to make landfall in Freeport or San Luis pass, Houston as we know it would be pretty much gone. Surge inundating Galveston Bay, energy assets. Wind damage across the entire city. Power outages for weeks to months. We are unprepar...
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:27 PM
At the rate it's organizing we will only be a little short of keeping the dubious category five landfall streak going, not fun
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:28 PM
dvorak peak at 6.7 earlier isnt' far from 7.0 the typical cat 5 handoff. winds obviously will take time to catch up to the convection, but its possible
coldest cloud tops nearly all the way arouhd now. with intense towers in the east quad /w lightning
it's still doing RI (edited)
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:29 PM
I obviously don't wanna explicitly call for it since it's pretty unprecedented but hell so was Michael
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:30 PM
it might actually be head of michael in maturity at this point. so we'll probably get an EWRC before landfall. and that might save it from cat 5
this 1
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:31 PM
this 1
Here's hoping, looking for anything to temper the beast at this point
this 1
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:32 PM
the eyewall forecast says odds of replacement start going up around 9pm. odds of an eye remaining go down to 75%
50% odds of replacement by 12am
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:36 PM
A double wind maxima might make the extent of wind and surge a little higher while tempering the maximum of course
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 12:37 PM
Wait....we can predict EWRC's now?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:42 PM
there is a forecast run off the GFS that simulates odds of an eye based on current obs + climatology. has a decent skill.
👍 1
previously trying to figure out EWRC's was done based on visual examination of microwave and IR sate images. which you can still do
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 12:50 PM
Not sure if it was stated earlier, but this is the largest intensification in such a short period of time since Katia in 2017 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298643697156816901?s=20
#Laura's winds have intensified by 35 mph in the past 12 hr - the fastest 12-hr intensification rate for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico since Katia in September 2017 - which also intensified 35 mph in 12 hr. #hurricane #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/6ESZEt9o46
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:53 PM
Crazy hot tower swung around the east side of the eye. Had plenty of lighting
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:53 PM
if the eye can tighten up a bit. we'll get a big boost in winds and pressure
looks like it might be trying
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 12:54 PM
How frequently are recon planes flying into it today?
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 12:57 PM
Another one is on the way in now.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:01 PM
Could Laura's outflow disrupt any wind shear
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:02 PM
Laura is big enough to ignore most wind shear at this point. She will induce her own high pressure aloft
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:03 PM
Saw some tweet about it not being impacted by wind shear in the near term, just not sure considering I haven't heard a lot of talk on it
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:03 PM
She ain’t got flying frick to give about the shear anymore (edited)
this 2
🇫 1
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:03 PM
Very intense storms tend to burn themselves out due to cold water or land. Not shear
Laura is going fast enough it ignore upwelling. Which did in Dorian. So only land will stop her
this 2
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM
Patricia experiences very rapid intensification, but quickly snuffed out by Mexico’s terrains right after landfall. Patricia was small though.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM
Or EWRC
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM
wow
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM
EWRC only temporarily weaken the TC
So best hope is EWRC during landfall. (edited)
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM
Yea, but if it hits right at landfall...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM
Ewrc remember, doesn't weaken the energy, just the speed. It spreads the energy out further.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM
The unknown is when the eyewall replacement cycle occurs
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM
Yes, EWRC at landfall is best hope at this point
What are things to look for that will show it is potentially starting?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM
This storm is already large and has an IKE rating a full category higher than saffir simpson
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:07 PM
How long EWRC would last? Usually
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:07 PM
6-24 hours. Most likely to begin after 9pm
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:08 PM
Hopefully... when she’s forecast to make landfall?
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:09 PM
The eye is fully visible on radarscope now
What are the signs to look for, when a hurricane starts an EWRC?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:10 PM
microwave will show a second layer of wall begin to form. you'll get secondary peaks of wind on recon passes
you wont notice on satellite until the eye starts to cloud over
there were soem secondary peaks this morning, but the microwave wall remained intact
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:11 PM
is there any way to tell how long it might take?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:11 PM
not really but at thsi point, if it starts an EWRC this evening, it will landfall before it finishes
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:12 PM
So here is hoping we see it some time at or after 9pm
🙏 3
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:13 PM
New recon is already finding hurricane force winds 100 miles from the center
Hank 5
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 01:14 PM
Brownsville NWS has taken over all forecast operations from LCH — Lake Charles NWS has left the building.
backup 2
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:16 PM
Laura: grows to Cat 4 and starts menacing the S LA/E TX NWS Lake Charles mets: ight imma head out (edited)
East 6
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:17 PM
To quote Monty Python: "Run Away"
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM
I can imagine flooding could literally reach their office unless it's especially high ground
this 1
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM
Lake Charles is pretty low af which makes sense for the mets to evacuate ahead of surge.
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM
So when is the NHC going to have its next update
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM
40 minutes
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM
Can you check microwave on COD? I don't see it
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM
Probably more like 30
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:21 PM
They might post it early if recon finds something ridiculous but might just wait til the usual time since it's close
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:24 PM
131 knots Flight level
116 knots SFMR
Hank 8
Definitely will have at least a 130 mph category 4 at the top of the hour
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:24 PM
Definitely c4 upgrade incoming
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:24 PM
What are the odds that Lake Charles radar gets taken out, its not far from the coastline
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 01:25 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:25 PM
And it might be higher, 116 was the last one reported so far
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:25 PM
For reference, 133 mph (116 knots) is 0.18 Mach...
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:32 PM
Um... I think eye is shrinking a little from satellite
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:33 PM
sure looks like it
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:33 PM
Yep. Saw that in both visible and infrared. Still intensifying.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:33 PM
121 knots SFMR
That would put it at 140 mph
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 01:35 PM
Damn wasn't that the peak intensity forecast in the last official update?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:35 PM
welcome to cat 4 boys
145 was the max forecast. let's pump it up
Hank 6
Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory movie clips: http://j.mp/2ihVyyo BUY THE MOVIE: http://bit.ly/2hAlh58 Don't miss the HOTTEST NEW TRAILERS: http://bit.ly/1u2y6pr CLIP DESCRIPTION: Willy Wonka (Gene Wilder) guides the group into a dark tunnel full of strange kaleidoscopic i...
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:37 PM
Lake Charles right now
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:39 PM
Going to bed to a cat 1, waking up to a solid cat 4, definitely a reason to evacuate early
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:40 PM
Lake Charles when Laura hits Cat 4 after going to bed with Cat 1
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 01:41 PM
the meme game in here right now is solid rn
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:41 PM
i think we're near peak right now. good thunder activity yes, but there is warming in the SE eyewall
replacemetn might be a bit early, but this could complete before landfall, now
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:42 PM
And there is no way to get a hint at how long that might take?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:42 PM
So you're saying we're probably seeing EWRC? I also saw eye shrinking a little too.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM
Recon saw no double wind maxima so not yet
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LAURA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
`
category4 1
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM
Solid Cat 4
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM
Sorry I'm late to the party but yeah Laura is a biggirl
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:44 PM
her original name was big chungus when she was a wave
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:44 PM
I think her full name is Laura Big Chungus
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 01:45 PM
Oh so Luara was the big wave that came off last week? Man she grew up into a monster but had a feeling.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:45 PM
Laura B.C.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:45 PM
extra thicc cane
thonk 5
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM
oh my god
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM
How do you view the microwave?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM
Some peeps are saying it already might've done a merging EWRC earlier today
So if that happened it's unlikely we'll get another
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM
Welcome to the weird world, Jaden
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM
there is a microwave availble from RAMMB, and another from WISC, but wisc is down
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:48 PM
Final T rn is 6.5
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:49 PM
Lightning is still there on the east side of eye
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 01:51 PM
It would be interesting to see satellite of Big Chungus wave -> C4 Laura
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:51 PM
The full loop
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:51 PM
Hope my TX buds are safe I might give a phone call to my Pearland bud
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 01:52 PM
I think Houston area may just be missing it but have some strong winds.
And man my poor old undergrad town. Nacogdoches gonna get hit by atleast a cat 1.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:55 PM
Is there livestreaming
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:56 PM
You can pay $10 a month and get HurricaneTrack cameras and sensors
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:56 PM
new towers on the N and S eyewalls, /w lightning. i don't see any signs of an EWRC yet. just a momentary breathe before it CHUNGAS again
Yao 5
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
CHUNGAS lmao
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
Laura Big Chungas, full name
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
I can see that on satellite too (edited)
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
Seems like the pressure declines have slowed down?
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
I'm dumb EWRC?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
Eye wall replacement cycle
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM
Oh right yeah duh
DuRr
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM
Once I'm done with this PD I'm gonna pop over to Weather and watch a stream
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM
Laura B. Chungas
this 4
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM
yup
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM
That perfectly describes her vs wind shear
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:00 PM
THIS IS YOUR LAST CHANCE. . .
this 7
🙏 5
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM
Christ that is foreboding
God hurricanes made me so worried for folks that are stuck
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM
The is the strongest wording I've seen in awhile from the NHC.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM
Godspeed those who cant leave. Yeah holy shit NHC
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:04 PM
Wait is that ironic that Laura is the only TC sitting out of both GoM and Atlantic?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:04 PM
@Zach E (Lakeville, MN) is that in the advisory?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:04 PM
Like nothing else in the basin
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 02:05 PM
Oh.
backup 8
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 02:06 PM
I'd say 50/50 odds of that thing remaining usable after this.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:06 PM
@Zach E (Lakeville, MN) Where did you find this? I'm looking at NHC page
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:07 PM
Yeah I’m looking for it too
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:10 PM
I'm looking for it
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:11 PM
65 mph increase in 24 hours is just insane
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 02:11 PM
It looks like something that wasn't actually posted by the NHC, honestly.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:12 PM
Is it from a local weather office?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:12 PM
I looked at NHC and I don't think I can find it... so maybe not^
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM
it wasn't apparently someone was passing down false information though still this is very dangerous situation.
this 1
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM
Apparently the "this is your last chance" thing isn't legit
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM
What Laura did^
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM
as in not from a weather office
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM
Not from local weather office either so try be careful next time. Make sure it's legit.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM
I'll chill here, DiW is a mess right now, a lot of overhype in there..
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM
DiW?
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM
Direct Wx
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM
Ah... I see
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM
There's SO MUCH traffic that WN is down
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM
F for WN
🇫 7
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM
I hope COD stays up
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM
Goodness
I hope the NHC website can handle all this traffic
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM
I am sure it is designed to handle the traffic
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 02:16 PM
TT might be having trouble right now, no recon data in the past 25 minutes, can't load new sat images (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:16 PM
Even if it was misinformation, I hope it still encourage people to evacuate regardless. I'm not a fan of misinformation myself.
Laura is no joke.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM
AWIPS went down earlier too, i'd assume from increased traffic
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM
Tropical-storm-force winds have reached the coast of Louisiana and an observing site at Eugene Island recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). and its 12-14 hours from landfall
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM
Still no signs of an EWRC
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:18 PM
We are hoping for no signs of EWRC until at or after 9pm
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:18 PM
@Zach E (Lakeville, MN) I think "This is your last chance" is probably misinformation, but I hope that would encourage people to evacuate anyway sooo... I'm not as mad with that one as I would be for most of misinformation situations.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:18 PM
we will see coastal erosion unlike anything we've seen before in the US. 12 hours of bashing over a very vulnerable area. katrina was bad for erosion. we're gonna have a new coastline.
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:19 PM
Yeah I found out and deleted my post
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:20 PM
I removed my comments myself (edited)
Thanks Satan though. (If that encouraged anyone to evacuate still) (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:22 PM
eye is cleaned up. towers are cooling again, and the black circle of death is filling in.
dvorak will likely spike again. presentation would indicate another 5-10mph of strengething
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM
oh lord twitter.....
wxtwitter 5
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM
That's jumping the gun.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM
Aw shut up Twitter
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM
wxtwitter
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM
This will continue into the afternoon
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:25 PM
"what are those?"
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:28 PM
Man I doubt Laura is gonna be a honker C5
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM
we all doubted michael too. if you recall
SHIPS gives is a 10-12% chance still
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM
Watch this be another 155 mph cat 4 that gets upgraded post analysis
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM
Everyone always takes notice when there's a shot of 🐈 🐈 🐈 🐈 🐈
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM
Honestly, wouldn't surprise me if Laura does get to 140kts just before landfall
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM
Still got 20 knots to go
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM
With how Laura is intensifying, 20kts isn't a problem
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM
Is the pressure still dropping?
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM
I can tie like, two knots a minute and I'm way weaker than a hurricane
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM
Did we have like a C4 hit C5 for like two mins and dropped once it hit landfall thought that was the norm?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM
Pressure is at 953 mb as of a dropsonde 50 minutes ago
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM
ships this morning, starting at 100kts: 45kt / 36h 34.3% 9.9% 22.1%. 145kts had a 34.3% chance
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:31 PM
That eye continues to clear out
Is it just me, or did the eye expand slightly?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:31 PM
the ONLY negative factors this morning for RI, where that it was already a cat 3, and that it was too big for quick RI
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM
If it she chonks out C5 she won’t sustain it
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM
Due to landfall
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM
yeah, it would have to be a quick burst, like michael, and yes, landfall.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM
Yeah glad we’re on the same page
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM
this
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:33 PM
Why wouldn't she sustain it, aside from land
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:33 PM
Laura would sustain CAT5 intensity for at least 30 minutes+
If it's able to attain it more than 25-50 miles from the coast
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:35 PM
I will be interested in the next NHC update, the European model sure looks interesting
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:36 PM
Minimum pressure in the center of Laura was 990mb at 18z yesterday. "Rapid Deepening" is defined as pressure falling at least 42mb in 24 hours. There are only 25 Atlantic hurricanes on record that have met this criteria. Laura just needs to reach 948mb to qualify.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:36 PM
Laura still has another 12 hours before landfall, this could be interesting
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:37 PM
Looks like Laura fell just shy of that
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:38 PM
She is just to big
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:38 PM
yup she's been going at about 1.7 mb/ hr. which isn't even RI. it's just moderate I. but she's been doing it non-stop
RI often looks like a sawblade, pulse, pause, pulse, etc
but she's just a line straight up (and right i guess?) (edited)
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:40 PM
Which is scary to think about
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:40 PM
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:40 PM
Off topic but I would love to be in a Hurricane Hunter t b h
this 2
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM
On my bucket list for life
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM
18z was the first time she had lost kinetic energy since about 60 hours before
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM
Would she get it back
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM
well, its now about 20z, and i would say she has, quickly, and then some
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
944.7 mb extrap
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
That’s 5 mb lower than the last extrap an hour ago
Hank 7
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
930s seems pretty likely at this point good lord
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
bad news old chaps. she's going annular
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
meaning?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM
look at the infrared. the black is going full-circle and spreading out
annular storms dont have discrete rainbands, they are just a wall of wind in a perfect cylinder
"storms attaining annular characteristics are less prone to weakening as a result of negative environmental factors. Annular cyclones can maintain their respective peak intensities for extended periods of time unlike their asymmetric counterparts."
OOF 4
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:46 PM
Laura is almost like a WPAC storm, not a typical compact gulf storm
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:46 PM
According to Jeff Piotrowski there have been 911 calls from the Louisiana coast from chasers that are TRAPPED IN THEIR VEHICLES
🤦‍♂️ 4
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:47 PM
" the North Atlantic basin only exhibited conducive conditions for annular development 0.8 percent of the time"
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:48 PM
Fuck 2020
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:48 PM
Well the chasers definitely need to run to Rockport and grab Blue Shed to stay safe at this point
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:48 PM
The latest GOES image shows a perfectly round eye, just beautiful!
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:49 PM
annular storms are less susceptive to EWRCs, correct?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:49 PM
"Tropical cyclones can become annular as a result of eyewall mesovortices mixing the strong winds found in the eyewalls of storms with the weak winds of the eye, which helps to expand the eye. In addition, this process helps to make the equivalent potential temperature (often referred to as theta-e or {\displaystyle \theta {e}}\theta {e}) within the eye relatively uniform. This transition takes roughly 24 hours to complete and can be considered a type of eyewall replacement cycle"
if it truly is annular, it wont EWRC anymore, because it is just a giant eyewall
Hank 4
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:50 PM
It looks beautiful on Sat
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 02:50 PM
Sensor pack at the house has gone from 1022.2 to 1010.9 mb in an hour.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:50 PM
I wish I could upload a picture, but Discord doesn't let me upload. Someone should upload a true color image of it right now, emerging perfectly round eyewall. Just Beautiful! (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:51 PM
annual also means the storm will be very close to the Maximum potential intensity, or MPI. you'll see it on many products
MPI is usally some fantasy number that never gets reached. but it can in annulars
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 02:51 PM
Another 5mb drop since the last center pass ~80 minutes ago. #Laura still intensifying at a rapid pace.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:53 PM
I wish I could upload a picture, but Discord doesn't let me upload. Someone should upload a true color image of it right now, emerging perfectly round eyewall. Just Beautiful!
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 02:54 PM
👍 2
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:54 PM
all the weather sites are slowing down. wisc is crashed. rammb is slow AF
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:54 PM
Im really concerned that this is gonna continue RI until landfall
this 2
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:55 PM
Potential impact to Southwest Louisiana. Via NWS Brownsville, TX, covering for NWS Lake Charles (they abandoned their station earlier today due to safety concerns)
Spann 8
this 3
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:56 PM
Hopefully its not bad where it takes their office out of service for an extended period of time
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:56 PM
Bets on if the radar site survives?
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM
I hope the dome doesn’t divorce the tower like from Maria
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM
Ongoing pandemic could exacerbate rescue and recovery after the storm passes
this 3
🙏 3
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM
we lost our NWS server site for 2 months due to the great bomb cyclone of 2019. was underwater
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM
Wow DP up to 84 from 73 at noon.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:58 PM
Meanwhile looks like Baton Rouge area is going nuts atm.
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 02:58 PM
Just a few chasera showing up on SN on the beach, but looking at Google Street view there are no structures around that will survive this surge, so hopefully these idiots are bailing out soon
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:59 PM
The eye is really clearing out now, just amazing
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 03:00 PM
RIP those red dots
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Gary Kogoy (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 26-Aug-20 03:01 PM
4 separate tornado warnings at once in the BR area, didn't see that one coming
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:02 PM
Apparently the chasers trapped are on 82
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 03:02 PM
2 PM CDT #Laura Update: Water levels beginning to rise along the coast of Louisiana. Aircraft reports pressure has fallen to 948 mb https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 03:03 PM
Rapid Deepening?
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 03:03 PM
@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) gotta be those few dots. Idiots. When Josh Morgerman is taking big cautions, that's a huge hint to stay the hell away
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 03:04 PM
Where morgerman at?
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:04 PM
Here's hoping they don't become the big media story of the storm, like the Bounty Rescue...
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 03:05 PM
Welp, there it is. Laura officially rapidly deepened
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 03:06 PM
Well it’s an hour too late
It’s 19z
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:06 PM
@Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) I think you are right
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM
Confirmed tornado about 20 miles south of baton rouge
At 202 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near White Castle, or 7 miles south of Plaquemine, moving northwest at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado near Napleonville with this storm.
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM
@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) last he updated he said he's considering staying on the TX side.
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM
Oh wow
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.5 / 929.4mb/127.0kt
dvorak say its a borderline cat 5
Hank 2
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Jack | (Findlay, OH) 26-Aug-20 03:08 PM
Latest dropsonde indicates a minimum MSLP of 948 hPa, continuing Laura's rapid deepening. We're now up to a ~21 hPa decrease in 8:30 hours since this morning's first center pass. These plots are now updating on my site by demand: https://t.co/T3LMwEkg2r
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Anthony R. (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 03:08 PM
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Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 03:09 PM
Welp I am on call for tonight for any damage that may occur near me.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 03:09 PM
KPLC-TV Lake Charles is evacuating.
Hank 2
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 03:10 PM
holy cow
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:10 PM
DVORAK IKE estimates: IKETS(TJ) 118.545 SDP 5.119
Hank 5
according to dvorak, laura is now as powerful for surge as katrina
katrina was a 5.2. this is not good
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Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 03:11 PM
Didn't Katrina have like 24 foot?
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM
I believe so
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM
camile was 24 feet. but it isn't about height. its about amount of water pushed over a huge area
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Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM
surge flooding of 25-28 feet
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM
let me translate IKE for you: this storm has enough energy to push the same amount of water as katrina.
the surge damage potential goes up to 6. it's a 5.119. that's bad. very bad
no chaser in their right mind would have been south of i-10
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 03:14 PM
KPLC-TV Lake Charles is evacuating.
@Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) That's weird. KPLC is still streaming with people in their Lake Charles studio.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 03:14 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:15 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:16 PM
Every frame is a little more yikes
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 03:19 PM
Tornado Watch forthcoming
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:21 PM
This is what was left at Holly Beach when the 15-foot surge came through. Evacuation is the only thing to do with a storm like this.
This is what Holly Beach looked like after Rita in 2005
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:22 PM
Damn... I came back after 1 hour class to see all of this and what’s happening? Too much to read
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:23 PM
gl
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:23 PM
Just gonna completely fill phone memory with satellite pics at this point
this 1
Just visually spectacular, in a bit of a horrifying way
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:26 PM
rita had a surge dmage potential of 2.9 out of 6. DVORAK estimate says laura is a 5.1 katrina was 5.2
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:26 PM
Can anyone fill me in what happened in past 1 hr?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:26 PM
this will make rita look like a walk in the park
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:27 PM
Super shallow broad continental shelf in that area = big ol surge even with a lesser storm
Will be unimaginable sadly
Laura went even more beast mode happened
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 03:27 PM
Laura is giving me some Ike vibes
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:28 PM
@GanondorfMain7606 The eye emerged. The storm may be going annular, which means no EWRC, just continued strengthening. ask @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:29 PM
Thanks! I was in class and it blew up with 100+ messages lol
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:30 PM
The eye of Hurricane #Laura warmed ~4°C between passes per recon. Such increased subsidence noted on IR and dropsonde could indicate that we may see a sharper drop in pressure soon. Given FL wind and dropsonde data, these pressure falls would allow a run at Category 5 intensi...
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:31 PM
Hard to believe we went 2008-2015 with no category fives honestly at this point with every major trying to make a run at it these days
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 03:31 PM
Tyler knows his stuff. I’m thinking he get high end Cat 4 but 5 definitely isn’t out of the question
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:32 PM
Any word on those trapped chasers?
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:34 PM
I would have been skeptical of category five midday yesterday but today, yeah not even sure anymore, after Michael I probably wouldn't even be surprised
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cricketkepler 26-Aug-20 03:36 PM
Waiting for all of the gas shortages and hysteria to start.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:36 PM
waiting for the housing crisis to begin. i work the in housing industry, and katrina is largely credited for being the straw that broke the camel's back by making 300000+ toxic mortgages
there are about 780,000 people that live in the impacted area. could be without power/water/house for weeks/months. small population than katrina, but they will be far more stranded
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cricketkepler 26-Aug-20 03:39 PM
Sigh. So awful.
this 7
🙏 6
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 03:39 PM
Keep in mind it’s going to go inland as a hurricane and cause damage from winds and freshwater flooding all the way to the east coast, albeit spread over a wider area. (edited)
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:40 PM
I may have to drop down to southern IN/Northern KY to take a look
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:40 PM
look at the coldness of the fanning cloudtops on the SE quad. it's still getting stronger.
Hank 4
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Jack | (Findlay, OH) 26-Aug-20 03:42 PM
Eye is warming...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:43 PM
so for annular storms, you might recall the 'ring of death' as i like to call it. the cold cloudtops that circle the storm on IR sat (edited)
3 levels, black ring of death, white ring of death, pink ring of death
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 03:43 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:43 PM
we're at black ring. IRMA was able to form a white ring. and patricia / haiyan had the pink ring
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:44 PM
https://www.wafb.com/live/ If you want to watch coverage out of Baton Rouge of the tornado warnings
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:44 PM
I remember Haiyan ring of death... :/
I’m on mobile so forgive my typo (edited)
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:45 PM
A HIGH risk is in effect in our Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. More details: https://t.co/FQU5sb4jjg
High risk for rainfall
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 03:45 PM
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Louisiana and Texas until 9 PM CDT
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:47 PM
I really wish that there was a radar site near Baton Rouge
Recon's gonna make a pass from the SW to the NE
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:49 PM
Its going to get worse during the Piney Woods stage of Laura
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:49 PM
Piney Woods Stage?
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:50 PM
The thick pine forests of eastern Texas and western Louisana
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:50 PM
tree damage will be sigfnicant.
like ef3 tornado damage, but across 100's of miles. like iowa's derecho but worse
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:51 PM
Hail size up to no hail size...
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:51 PM
What parker said @GanondorfMain7606
Radar is very bad in that area.
My undergraduate was in Nacogdoches lmao.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:52 PM
The radar in Shreveport is down right now
this 1
Hopefully they can get it back online soon
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:53 PM
Great haha. Probably preparing for the storm tbh.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:55 PM
Gotcha
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:57 PM
I did a big project for the Caddo Mounds Tornado aka the Alto EF 3 where it was near impossible to see the Tornado in West Nacogdoches County.
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James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 26-Aug-20 03:57 PM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO - Inside the eye of CAT3 Hurricane #Laura during Aug. 26, 2020 morning mission aboard @NOAA WP-3D Orion #NOAA42 "Kermit." Credit: Nick Underwood, NOAA. Follow @NHC_Atlantic for latest forecast and advisories. #FlyNOAA https://t.co/IsgDcegmAQ
😲 4
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:00 PM
“140”
Error?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:01 PM
It’s 140
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:01 PM
Yeah it's in the latest update text too
I think a run at Cat 5 isn't just a pipe dream now
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:03 PM
Yeah its 140 sustained atm
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM
I don't like curve on that as it is landfalling
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM
@Alex V (Wausau, WI) Nope... it’s officially 140 mph sustained
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM
no more swinging around please
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM
Last recon pass through the eyewall saw winds that high
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM
What? I know it went from 70-115 in 24 hours but how did it go from 115-140 in under 12 hours??
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM
Yep
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM
bathtub of mexico
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM
Can’t make this crap up
That’s the RI
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM
GoM is super toasty
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM
Also it’s down to 950 mb since last pass.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM
Steamy and toasty GoM
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:06 PM
Recon heading in for a SW to NE pass
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:06 PM
I should have known this would happen last night when I saw a little bit of dry air entrainment that was doing literally absolutely nothing to it.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:07 PM
Few days ago, if someone says Laura will be cat 4, we’d think he’s smoking some rock
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM
No way.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM
HWRF said it. and i told ya'll not to mess with HWRF
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM
I've seen it enough times
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM
Well at the very beginning when it was massive blob off of Africa I knew it was gonna be something big
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM
cloud tops warming on the W flank of the storm. looks like shear is finally doing SOMETHING
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:09 PM
TT having problems rn, still haven’t seen recon in for about 30 mins now
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:09 PM
Laura can still fight the shear though
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 04:10 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:10 PM
ships is in: don't count cat 5 out yet: RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 21.0% 17.2% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ships officialy takes it to 145mph at 6pm
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 04:11 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:11 PM
12.8% chance for 35 kT/24 hr Hank
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 04:11 PM
945 damn
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM
And still likely keep going.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM
945 at 60kts
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM
Without a rapid EWRC onset 930s is absolutely happening
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM
When is expected landfall?
Tonight?
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM
That’s still not to the center yet, might be down into 930s extrap by next update
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM
Maybe high 920s by landfall, I was thinking 950s yesterday lol
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
Are those thunderstorms around the eye even going to collapse
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
I can't remember the extrapolation rate for sonde pressure
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
she's 10 kts higher or 6 hours earlier than every RI forecast that was made
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
EWRC at this point would begin too late to weaken it considerably by landfall.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
RI is very difficult to forecast
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM
^^^^^^^
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:14 PM
radius of maximum wind down to 16miles. it was 25 miles this morning
she's 'spinning in'
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:14 PM
Smaller eye^
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:14 PM
have noticed it shrinking on satellite
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Saw it too
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Fuck small eyes aren't good right?
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Seems to be rotating significantly faster with every frame too
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Not a good sign
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Curious on what they find from the NE eyewall on this pass through
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Something something ice skater
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
Angular momentum
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
I don't know exactly, Dorian was the most impressive eye I ever saw
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM
conservation of angular momentum
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM
More narrow, faster spin
Broader, slower spin
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM
G2K
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM
Like a ballerina who tucks their arms in
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM
What can often happen too is that the eye expands again after intensifying (after shrinking) and brings those winds out further. It’s what happened with Irma.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:18 PM
FL winds higher by 5 knots than the last pass through there, but SFMR stayed the same
Down to 943 extrap
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:19 PM
Really no good scenario here, weaker broader wind field would still increase the area of surge
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:19 PM
It really is a lose/lose situation
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:20 PM
Hate to say but I don't think there's much of a Good Scenario here lmao.
Yao 4
Unless the storm just poofs and we all know that isn't happening.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:21 PM
best case scenario: GTFO of SW LA.
beaumont isnt in good shape either
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:22 PM
what this
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:22 PM
Were fucked
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Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 04:22 PM
idk if my house being on stilts is a good thing right now XD
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 04:25 PM
Eye is on radarscope, base velocity peaks around 157mph, I know it's not 100% accurate but damn
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:25 PM
Worse thing also I dont think either Lake Charles or Beaumont get the Eye break. I think both are on consistently in the eyewall
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:27 PM
flight level 157 minus 15mph = 142mph = sounds about right
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:29 PM
Watching Force 13 live stream on YT
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:29 PM
Yeah, they might go 145 next advisory, we’ll see
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:31 PM
Anyone interested in pop into WxDiscuss to talk about stuff with Laura, maybe later night
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:34 PM
947 sonde
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:35 PM
123 kts on this sonde at the surface, Cat 5 winds at 937 (edited)
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 04:36 PM
Cat 5 winds just 264 meters above the surface
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 04:36 PM
Eye of Laura showing on KLCH radar.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:38 PM
With those winds being that close it might have time, we'll see if this plane goes in again
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:39 PM
CAT5 winds aren't that high up
Could eventually mix down below 50m
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:39 PM
Pressure has been going down about 3mb every pass
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:40 PM
Cloudtops on western flank cooling again, I don't think shear is doing much to it.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:40 PM
I’m anxious, Hurricane Hunters are designed for these massive storms? How in danger are they in these kind of storms?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:41 PM
IIRC they need to angle themselves into the crosswind a bit to stay straight when winds get this high.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:42 PM
they can handle winds up to 200mph
above 200mph the g-forces will destroy the plane
if i recall, during hugo, a hunter got into a meso-vortex that was 200mph, and they ended up with like 6-7g's, when the planes are designed for 3-4
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:44 PM
The issue with the G's is the gust factor more than anything. If it was 200mph sustained with no gusts (like the jet stream) it would be no issue. It's sudden changes of wind direction that cause the problems. In this case they are well within safety limits
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM
Hurricane Laura's eye is the clearest I've seen today (edited)
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM
Okay good to know
Do we know anything about the storm surges rn?
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM
And holy wow that eye
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM
Yeah, lowest 500m mean wind is at 140-145kts
Eventually, those will mix down to the surface
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM
AW SHIT
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM
eye likely to stay instead until at least noon. possiby 6pm tomorrow
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM
Thats a long lived eye damn
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:47 PM
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:47 PM
eye could remain intact all the way to shreveport
combo of really good conditions and high forward speed
Hank 2
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:48 PM
Shreveport? Man
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:48 PM
Even more lightning in the core now these past few frames.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 04:50 PM
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:50 PM
@Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) Yeah those Cat 5 winds are getting close, probably between 250m and 150m to the surface. (edited)
Next recon plane leaves at 21z
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:51 PM
160 is C5 right?
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:51 PM
140 knots/160 mph is C5, yes.
Last eye pass was down to 947, it still has some time
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 04:52 PM
5pm advisory from NHC increases max sustained winds to 145mph. #Laura
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 04:52 PM
...WIND AND WATER LEVELS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 145 mph
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:53 PM
These data support an initial intensity of 125 kt, which is an increase of 55 kt over the past 24 hours. The minimum pressure has fallen to around 947 mb. The well-defined eye is now within range of the NWS Lake Charles WSR-88D radar, and hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates began at 1900 UTC (2 PM CDT) and will continue through landfall and beyond overnight.
55/24 wow
Hank 5
this 4
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 04:53 PM
Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. Although rapid weakening is expected on Thursday as Laura moves inland, the hurricane is expected to bring a swath of damaging winds well inland over western Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas. The cyclone or its remnants are forecast to move off Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend and there remains some possibility that Laura will re-intensify as a tropical cyclone offshore of the United States east before it merges with a frontal boundary later in the forecast period.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:53 PM
150 mph peak expected
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 04:54 PM
And there's the line about it re-intesifying over the Atlantic.
Been wondering about that for days. (edited)
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:54 PM
I just heard about it on the live stream
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:56 PM
i cringe every time the IR loads and its a bunch of black ring of death /w a fan of white and pink flecks. not the pink
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:06 PM
Yes, the pink
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 05:07 PM
confirmed waterspout with this mini supercell
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:08 PM
NOAA plane left from Orlando
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:11 PM
I’ve been seeing SST of 85-90 F in general area of GoM neat Laura
From data buoys
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:12 PM
we live just west of the loop and I've still spent the day bringing in porch missiles
NW rather
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:14 PM
yeah, hurricane force winds could reach texas city. great...
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:14 PM
Lightning on both sides of eyewall.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:14 PM
How fucked is Houston/Pearland I got close friends there
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:15 PM
Houston will get off easy it looks like.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:15 PM
depends on the landfall now. eye over beaumont and houston is in serious trouble for wind damage. but it looks like its going east, into lake charles. so houston will be better off
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:15 PM
I appreciate the reassurance
Shit like this is why I’m grateful to be in OH tbh
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:16 PM
but rest assured, the i-10 from houston to well east of lake charles will be closed / cease to exist for some time
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:16 PM
aye, I'm not too worried about anything crazy right now.
but stranger things have happened.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:19 PM
Okay, this will be night where I brew another cup of coffee and buckle in for the show. (edited)
No morning classes tomorrow.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM
o7
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM
I envy you
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM
What a storm Still looking like it's strengthening right now
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM
Those black tops is uncomf
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:21 PM
oh...thats alot of white cloud tops too
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 05:21 PM
I think Houston currently is just gonna get alot of wind
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
What level of circle of death she's on? Black? White?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
let me slowly load up tropical tibits, he's got the best view
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
Shear has at least some effect on it at the moment on the west side, but its still strengthening
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
I'm using CoD for a reason lol
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
Banded white
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM
Yikes fam
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM
cod uses a different band color scheme that isn't as good
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM
That's why I'm asking.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM
Yeah, but TT is loading so slowly rn
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM
Yup.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:24 PM
ugh, thats alot of white band. she's getting close to cat 5. DVORAK has her still at CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.5 / 929.1mb/127.0kt
OHC over 100 for the rest of the trip unti landfall. no reason to stop growing. no EWRC signs. big chungus gonna chungus
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:25 PM
We’ll see what the next recon said
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 05:25 PM
The intensification of this reminds me of the storms in the Western Pacific that go from being 75mph Typhoon to a Super Typhoon in like 24 hours
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:25 PM
yeah, the similarities to a WPAC storm are striking
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:26 PM
Recent frame, white ring starting to complete
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:26 PM
Its reaaaaallly unnerving personally
this is as scary ass storm
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:28 PM
The very first signs of shear adversely affecting #Laura's core are apparent. This flare-out of cold cloud tops (black/gray) in the SW quad is a tell-tale sign. However, that doesn't mean Laura has stopped strengthening. We'll find out when the next plane arrives in ~2 hours....
Likes
102
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 05:30 PM
Is the trough lifting north or is CIMSS being inaccurate?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:30 PM
Laura: "What shear?"
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:31 PM
shear is still <10 kts. it only gets up to 20 around landfall
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:32 PM
Wouldn't do much to her
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:33 PM
She RIed with some dry air entrainment yesterday.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:33 PM
a storm that has true guts
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:34 PM
She basically gave dry air and shear a giant middle finger then went into beast mode.
this 1
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:34 PM
cat 4 in the streets, cat 5 in the sheets
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:35 PM
Lot of energy... damn
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:36 PM
she would give landfalling katrina or sandy a run for their money
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:36 PM
Goodness
I think this tops out Michael in being the worst hurricane we've seen in a long time
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:37 PM
TT showing that black ring continuing to fill in, very cold from N to S especially
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:37 PM
Don't forget Dorian, Jaden
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:37 PM
Oh yeah... I forgot Dorian
Just missed the U.S. at least so we dodged a bullet
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM
Dorian was the worst in a long time, it just didn't hit the US as a Cat 5 so it'll be probably be more overlooked by the general public than the likes of Katrina, Sandy, Michael, etc.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM
You can blame a pair of high pressure for pinning a Cat 5 grinder to few tiny ass islands for a few days, though. (edited)
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM
Hurricane Michael’s pressure at landfall was 919. Laura would have a long way to beat Michael
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM
michael was nuts RI< but it was fairly small. high surge over a small area. this surge is going to be massive. 10-20 feet for 100-200 miles
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM
Surge of the likes we wouldn't have seen in a while
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM
What Irma did to the Leewards was also on that level
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:39 PM
like i said. this storm is RITA on steroids
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:40 PM
I’m interested to see what recon is going to find
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:40 PM
Dorian was awful largely because of atmospheric traffic jam in really unfortunate time and place, but Katrina was nasty with huge surge.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:42 PM
Dorian was also bad with surge, a large chunk of land was underwater
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:43 PM
Katrina’s surge was horrific and it as made worse with the infrastructure failings
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:44 PM
Ah yeah... I remember a clip from Dorian showing the surge (edited)
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:45 PM
You know wonder with all this Doomsday talk with Laura, I wonder if this is the result of the absolute terror with Katrina
She is now the measuring stick
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 05:47 PM
WDSU Chief Meteorologist Margaret Orr chokes back tears reading a dire warning from the National Hurricane Center, saying the message reminds her of Hurricane Katrina. Please take this storm seriously. https://t.co/HKZlNH1inO
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:47 PM
Some smart ass on the force 13 asked if was safe to surf l m a o
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:48 PM
Katrina is the measuring stick for the northern gulf coast, Andrew for south Florida, Harvey for western gulf coast, Sandy for the Northeast, etc.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:50 PM
It it is interesting
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Anthony R. (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 05:53 PM
Sending prayers for Devin Black. Ain’t looking good for him. Let this be a lesson to other chasers: Know your limits and don’t get too confident, because Mother Nature will sit your ass right down. #Laura #wx
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:54 PM
Can he move?
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 05:54 PM
I believe his dot tried going north earlier, but he went back to the beach. There is a decent chance some of his escape roads have been washed out (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:55 PM
Damn...
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:55 PM
Yeah everything may already be washed out. Can't really do anything now if he's stuck (edited)
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 05:56 PM
Potentially could try going west and then north, but we don't know if thats washed out as well
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:56 PM
Last thing we need is a chaser death, chasers got a crapload of bad press after what happened at El Reno, and that was before Twitter freakout culture became big.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:56 PM
^
El Reno was enough already
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM
I'll never understand the chaser intercepting hurricane holy grail mentality I've seen.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM
When #HurricaneLaura makes landfall, it will be the 3rd #hurricane to hit the continental US this year (Hanna and Isaias made landfall earlier). Only two years on record have had three continental US hurricane landfalls by August 27: 1886 (5 hurricanes) and 1916 (3 hurricane...
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM
Some are into hurricanes. I saw images of Michael eyewall from ground.
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM
I can understand a TS or Cat 1/2, but never really got the urge for big canes (edited)
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:59 PM
I took an image of Wilma's eyewall on the ground.
After the stress and uncertainty of the storm itself, then comes the boredom.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 06:01 PM
Large hurricanes especially in that areas is not something anyone should ever wish for
This is a situation where if people didn't evacuate they could get very hurt
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:02 PM
the heat, the mosquitos, the backbreaking work
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:02 PM
Moot point. Most don't wish for them but the reality is they happen.
But personally I wouldn't chase a major because I don't like the idea of being trapped in the deep south without AC for weeks on end wasting all my vacation days.
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:03 PM
No fuel to drive anywehre
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:03 PM
I’ve dealt with days with no AC here in TN and I hated it. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:03 PM
Vacation days spent trapped in hurricane aftermath would better be spent on the plains.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 06:04 PM
Yeah ‘cane chasing sounds like a shit ton of waiting and roasting
But there has to be one hell of a high though for folks to do it
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:05 PM
Yeah large respect for the ones who can pull it off and do it well. But that aint me bruh.
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:05 PM
Luck and the gambler's ruin
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:06 PM
If I wanted to witness a very high wind I'd intercept a bow echo.
Which i would do
lol
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:06 PM
Good luck forecasting a bow echo five days out
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:07 PM
Still beats getting trapped wasting all my vacation days in the southern heat
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:07 PM
They're huge pain in ass to forecast.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 06:07 PM
Or getting fucked in 40ft surges
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM
Hurricane chasing isn't for me, I am more of a severe/MCS/Supercell/Single cell/Winter Storm dude
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM
Oh hey any updates on our girl?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM
But that is me as a midwesterner
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM
Hourly update
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Lee S (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM
I almost got to ride out Michael on Tyndall, but wasn’t my set of shifts. As an EM guy it intrigues me. Would never do it in a car.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM
Here we go again with the convective hot towers in the eyewall
This is definitely not giving up on the intensification trend
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:09 PM
Yes...
Still black/white circle of death
Anything from flight or dropsonde?
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:13 PM
still en rout
e
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:13 PM
Hopefully that dude isn’t stuck because that’s all flat land and right at sea level, if he’s stuck, he’s fucked and I hope that’s not the case
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 06:14 PM
If he doesn't have a plan, and isn't just spoofin his location, if he doesn't figure out a way out, he won't make it
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:15 PM
Gotcha... you have link to flight or dropsonde data?
Oh I found it on TT. Never mind
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:16 PM
Watching the eye azimuth I have still not quite unpuckered
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:17 PM
Oh no, he went back down south
I hope that doesn’t mean he can’t find a way out
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:17 PM
The donut of death
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:18 PM
Should I say buzzsaw
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:18 PM
Devin moved a bit up north
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 06:19 PM
Hopefully he found an escape route.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:19 PM
Nerve-wracking
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:21 PM
Supposedly 5 or 6 miles off the beach
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:21 PM
Still ways to go to get away from surge.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 06:22 PM
Still too close, he's gotta get further inland.
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:22 PM
unfortunately. Not very smart choices from several chasers
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:23 PM
Like always have escape plan, and scout out parking garage or something as a last resort.
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:24 PM
Looks like he’s going back north to try again
Hopefully he succeeds
this 4
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 06:24 PM
I'm prepping to load the 'oh crap' gear in with my work stuff in the car tonight. If this thing tracks closer I'm gonna have a few hairy work shifts over the next few days.
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:24 PM
Rootin for you, Devin
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:26 PM
Last resort if I were in that situation and if the flood waters were calm, I’d swim across, and ditch the car, can’t do anything else if he’s stranded except that
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM
Low tide is occurring now, if he’s really got a chance to leave with roads blocked, it’s now or never (edited)
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM
Pretty much comes down to lose the car or your life
If he doesn’t have anything else
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM
even then, pretty far distance to run to get out of range
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM
What else do you got
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:28 PM
exactly
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:28 PM
Pretty much fighting for your life at that point
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:28 PM
better your life than car keys
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:29 PM
Water tower's about all that survived past storms in that area, though this one is vastly stronger
Not sure if Cameron will return from it; the Rita-Ike punch drove most of the residents away (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:31 PM
If he can't go north because of blocked road, walking/running for something substantial as far inland as possible is better than nothing.
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:31 PM
Looks like he got out
💯 5
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 26-Aug-20 06:31 PM
thank god
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:32 PM
Yay.... he still has more to go since Lake Charles is screwed.
(so are other chasers)
yee 4
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:32 PM
Brian Emfinger is also on the waterline
Storm Chaser, Nature photographer, Aerial Videographer, and Freelance Photojournalist. Video licensing thru @LiveStormsMedia.
Tweets
4645
Followers
10573
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:33 PM
NOAA flight is getting into the business now.
I remember him from Cookeville tor
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:34 PM
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 26-Aug-20 06:35 PM
still seems almost stationary, slow NW travel
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 06:35 PM
I honestly don't know what these guys are thinking. Are they not taking the storm surge threat seriously?
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 06:35 PM
Looks like it's turning to go north, albeit slowly
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:36 PM
Yeah this thing is slowing down pretty good
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:37 PM
Many 160mph+ bins at 15kft from LCH, hope the radar site stays up for a while cuz it'll be very interesting to see come in
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:44 PM
So landfall will be Cameron tonight or is that still in the air
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 06:46 PM
Jesus, those cold white tops are just stationary. Not good
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:48 PM
Just saw a peak of 169mph velocity from KLCH
category5 5
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:49 PM
Now white circle of death?
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 06:52 PM
It's close. You can see the meso vorts spinny around the center
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 06:53 PM
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 06:56 PM
Looks like the Air Force recon flight is going to take off very soon and the NOAA plane is about to make it's first pass through
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 06:56 PM
I wonder if we could see some eyewall tornadoes upon landfall with all of these mesovortices
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 06:57 PM
Water vapor is solid maxed out over 2/3 of the hurricane. What a beast
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:59 PM
Pinks are back
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:03 PM
pizza time stops You’re telling me there’s pink now? Damn man
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:04 PM
On radar, the NE portion of the eyewall is REALLY strong looking, I would not be shocked if they found Cat 5 winds in it
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:04 PM
UHHHHH
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:05 PM
133 knot SFMR it was
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:06 PM
And now time to wait on the Dropsonde
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:06 PM
It’s nearly there
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:06 PM
Still got hours before land, without an EWRC Laura could make it...
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:07 PM
wow a strengthening eye wall Hank
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:07 PM
Before Michael the rule of thumb most people had was northern Gulf hurricanes usually weakened quickly before landfall, not the case anymore clearly
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM
Well that was a wild eyewall penetration
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM
Ooh?
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM
Oh?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM
Playing some smash rn. What happened?
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM
this may have a run at Category 5 if this keeps that eyewall going big yikes
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM
133 kts max wind is that correct?
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Anthony R. (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM
133kt (153mph) SMFR on this latest recon pass through the NE quadrant of #Laura. Holy cow.
category5 1
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM
Definitely at or above 130kt at the very least
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM
The southern eye wall looks very strong
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM
i mean its already approaching cat 5
as in just a few mph off of it
i can't imagine at least one of these updates not having cat 5 winds
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:12 PM
This was like 40 miles from the center
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 07:12 PM
high tides for the coastal area for impacting. [7:11 PM] Today 26 Aug. 4:30 pm. -0.18ft. Thu 27 Aug. 12:47 am. 2.39ft. 5:33 pm. -0.23ft.
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:12 PM
Peep the area around that too, 170-175
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:13 PM
937.4 mb extrap
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:13 PM
Ooo... hey it’s way above the sea level though.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:13 PM
Now we wait for the dropsonde, probably around 940 mb
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:14 PM
It’s churning up there
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:15 PM
Greg, the tilt is above sea level so winds are usually lower towards the surface so I’ll take 183 mph with a grain of salt
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:15 PM
~15kft I think
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:17 PM
The cold bands aloft are now consolidating into a circle that doesn't move. 155mph wouldn't surprise me
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:17 PM
I figured that much, Just interesting
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:19 PM
The Shreveport Radar is currently not feeling well. Parts are on the way and it should be back online around Midnight. We apologize for the down time and thank you for your patience.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:19 PM
At least it's not a major part failure
this 3
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:20 PM
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has evacuated their office and the graphic below, shows why A storm surge of 9 ft or more could inundate their office. We'll see how long the radar (white dome) will hold out @NWSBrownsville is backing up their operations
Hank 4
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:21 PM
937 MSLP (edited)
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:23 PM
Extrapolated pressure of 937mb with some significant winds. Curious to see what the dropsonde measured in the eye. https://t.co/lBHOb4hQ0L
thonk 5
thonk
937mb w/ a 84kt sfc-wind
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:23 PM
probably between bands
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:24 PM
Yeah, if that was true and not band-related, then you'd have 929mb
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:25 PM
Airforce recon mission just took off from Charleston
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 07:25 PM
Is that gonna be the last flight till landfall?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:25 PM
Laura is feeding, with a linear band of convective towers wrapping towards the S quadrant
ohshit
ohshit 3
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:27 PM
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae0111 If you want to track the AF recon in real time
ADS-B Exchange - tracking aircraft using tar1090
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:27 PM
she's got the pinwheel effect inside the eye going on. another classic annular cat-5 indicator. she's really close
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:28 PM
She's still got too many outer banding features to be considered annular. Annular is like no bands all eyewall with huge eye, usually Cat 3 intensity since eyewall is so spread out.
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 07:30 PM
Probably closest images from the beach we will see
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 07:31 PM
That Gulf looks mad
Yeah Royce "L" has the spokes.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:32 PM
Hurricane hunters just flew through the eye of #Laura and found the pressure to be ~937 milibars...10 mb lower than the advisory just 3 hours ago It's still strengthening, ugh
category5 5
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:33 PM
So the question is...will @Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) be throwing TWC’s coverage up on YouTube so we can watch it in the off-season? Lol
Yao 4
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 07:33 PM
winds measured were just below cat 5 as well
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:34 PM
I know some people that are in the works of that
yee 3
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:34 PM
Kickass. That may or may not be an off-season guilty pleasure of mine. (edited)
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:37 PM
Phone rings. A call from the hotel's front desk. A cool & official-sounding woman: "Due to the severity of the storm, we're asking you to ride it out in your bathtub, or with the rest of us in the stairwells." Serious shit. #Hurricane #LAURA #Texas #Louisiana
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:37 PM
So... anyone wants a ride in the bathtub?
thonk
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM
rimshot
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM
God, I spend hours just watching old cane coverage; I've gotta get my old tapes from Dean, Felix, Dolly, Gustav and Ike up eventually. Katrina/Rita/Wilma too, so much to convert from VHS so little time (edited)
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Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM
I will be honest, I never expected it to be high end Cat 4. I thought most likely it would be Cat 3 but this is a really unpleasant surprise.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:39 PM
Dropsonde got 942 mb with 18 knot winds
Supports around 940
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:40 PM
who's ready for the nocturnal maximum?
Hank 8
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:41 PM
Yep
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:42 PM
I'm already gonna be up working on upgrading an EMR system, so I am 😆
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:42 PM
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 92.9W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:43 PM
look at all the troposphereic gravity waves
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:43 PM
Time for sunset visible shots
What an eye. Wow
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:45 PM
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 07:46 PM
We lost power for like 3 hours here in IN, cause of the heat. Back now, strapping in for a long night
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 07:47 PM
Incredible wind velocities of 180 - 205 mph just above the ground were observed by a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall of #Laura, helping to confirm the winds the plane observed. The surface winds would be lower due to friction, but still extreme.
East 5
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:48 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:51 PM
All that lightning still
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 07:53 PM
At this rate it's almost definitely a cat 5
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:54 PM
Looking for the Heinz (1)57
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:04 PM
strong towers on teh north side. very strong.
do i see pink?
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:16 PM
Extrap 935-936 possibly
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 08:17 PM
Got my hurricane Track subscription, so I am all set for the long haul.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 08:19 PM
Also in for the long haul tonight
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:21 PM
No sleep tonight
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:23 PM
I’m brewing a cup of coffee
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
Eye is contracting.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
Shit!
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
Not again
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
That's a large convective blowup
Hank 5
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
Something something ice skater
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
O_O
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM
More hot towers
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 08:25 PM
Shit!
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 08:25 PM
...i should probably fire up the HF rig. my antenna situation is best defined as garbage when operating from home but what i do have is positioned well to listen to landfall area.
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:26 PM
TWC seems to want there to be up to 90mph gusts here in my area when the center passes closest tomorrow morning. I think some TS-force winds and maybe 60mph gusts is more realistic.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:27 PM
Another 133 knot SFMR. Had a 137 knot SFMR that was flagged
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 08:31 PM
The recon plane's pass just now through #Laura's northern eyewall once again measured winds of ~155 mph, right on the cusp of Category 5 intensity. Central pressure is down ~1 mb since the previous pass, indicating no reversal of the intensification trend yet.
Likes
115
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:31 PM
@JakeK (Alexandria, LA) the GFS says the eye will stay intact all the way to shreveport
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM
Oh wait 158
TWC saying
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM
I believe that, but the forecast track is well west of Alexandria.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM
I don’t trust TWC as much...
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM
The 137kt SFMR was flagged as bad data
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM
We're within the TS-force wind-field for sure, but I don't think we're in the hurricane-strength field.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:33 PM
TS force winds + 20% for gusts. could get up there
so whatever your sustained predicted is, add 20%
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:34 PM
Always possible I guess, this storm is a monster.
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 08:34 PM
Yeah but they get live feedback from the NHC (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:35 PM
the max wind gust i see in alexandria is 68mph forecast
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:36 PM
That's closer to my uneducated guess
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 08:39 PM
Man its gonna get C5 tonight
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:39 PM
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) I just got back on Laura... yes I saw some hints of pink
Still more hot towers and lot of white mostly wrapping the eye.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:41 PM
940mb extrapolated pressure w/ a 30kt wind
So this equates to 937mb
From the previous center fix of 942mb, this is a 5mb drop since that timeframe
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Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:42 PM
oh lordy
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:43 PM
AF on the way for another reconnaissance mission
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Ken McWatters (Tulsa, OK) 26-Aug-20 08:43 PM
Great satellite pic.. Beautiful but deadly
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 08:45 PM
From the SPC 01z outlook
🌪️ 3
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:45 PM
nexrad is having a great time rn
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:46 PM
delias that
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 08:46 PM
Didn't realize Michael Beard was chasing
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:46 PM
yep
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:47 PM
Minisups galore!
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 08:48 PM
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:48 PM
@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) thats with delias on
its even worse with delias off
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:49 PM
lol really?
let me look
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:51 PM
its actually crazy
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 08:51 PM
Try unchecking "Use Wind Profile" in Dealiasing settings.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:52 PM
yes I'm having that issue to.
I think it might be the color table?
What color table you using?
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM
thank you jacob!
that actually solved the problem
👍 2
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM
i did what Jacob suggested and it fixed it for me
yes
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM
glen if you're asking me i can dm you mine
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM
crap mines not working
sure
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 08:54 PM
Yeah, the algorithm can get messed up due to the outrageous wind profiles being pulled from events like this. I had the same problem during the Midwest derecho a couple weeks ago.
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:54 PM
sent
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:55 PM
when my meme 1000 mph colortable actually comes in handy troll
troll 2
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:55 PM
ive really seen that problem only during strong tornadoes
or other strong hurricanes sometimes
@Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 whats that overlay you have? are you using GR or another product?
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:55 PM
GR2A, the overlay is torprob
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM
the pink outline?
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM
or probtor, i forget the order- and yes
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM
can you sent a link for that one? I don't think I've ever heard of it
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM
hold on
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM
Final light before things go nuts
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:57 PM
sent in dm
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:57 PM
8pm advisory, pressure falls to 937 mb
category5 7
category4 1
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 09:02 PM
3rd pass through NW eyewall about to commence
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 09:05 PM
Godspeed
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:07 PM
@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) not exactly sure what i'm looking at here
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM
NHC wind on the bottom. integrated kinetic energy on the side
AKA IKE
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM
That's 00z though
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM
IKE; is it bad I haven't heard of that metric before?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM
its a way to compare wind focused storms vs surge based storms. 00Z was the last run only runs every 6 hours
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM
And another 133 knots SFMR. That’s the 3rd one on 3 separate passes
This time in the SE quad
This could be a cat 5 if they sample the NE quad again here soon
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM
I'm not sure how much I trust this one since flight level was lower than SFMR.
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM
so a storm with a higher IKE vs actual wind speeds is going to have a stronger than expected storm surge?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM
bingo!
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM
That’s true. See if we get a NE pass
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM
thank yoU!
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM
Lets just say they dropped surge off the Saffair Simpson scale long ago for a good reason.
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM
well yeah that one made sense to me
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM
for instance, even though katrina had weaked to a cat 3, it's landfall was the same surge as a cat 5. this storm is roughly the same power (IKE) as katrina
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM
Isaac... Cat 1 with huge surge (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM
sandy was a cat 1 at landfall with the highest ever recorded IKE for a landfalling storm.
sandy was like double katrina. it was nuts
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM
Sandy was HUGE though
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM
Yeah sandy was massive
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM
Largest Atlantic TC on record, and possibly largest TC behind Tip as best as my memory serves
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:12 PM
there is 1 storm in teh atlantic that was bigger than sandy, but it was a fish storm.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:12 PM
Olga '01
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM
Lol fish storm. Thanks for reminding me.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM
Chonkin subtropical storm covering half the basin
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM
I'm not familiar with Olga '01.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM
Didn't do much but look neat lol
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:14 PM
I was like knee high way back then, and it was hard to find anything good about Olga '01 anyway.
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 09:14 PM
This is just getting insane. 133 kt (153 mph) SFMR (surface winds) in the NW, "weak quadrant" eyewall #Laura
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 09:14 PM
Categorical strength is both academic and meaningless at this point. #HurricaneLaura is a BEAST. Prayers for anyone in its path. #lawx #txwx https://t.co/S2y3KbESOY
this 3
Some perspective
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:15 PM
Hot towers still generating around her eye wall.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:16 PM
Cat 5 is probably inevitable if they're in the right place at the right time to measure it, but impact wise yeah it doesnt matter
Does for the historical record but pretty sure Cameron and Lake Charles residents don't care much abotu that
this 3
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:17 PM
She still have ways to go for landfall, and categories don't matter anymore impact-wise.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:17 PM
Costliest storm ever was a 3 at landfall by wind after all
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Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM
What are hot towers?
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM
Laura might be sub-940 mb if these derided MSLPs are accurate. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2413A-LAURA_timeseries.png
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM
She is sub 940. NHC advisory is 937mb
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM
Oh yeah.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:19 PM
Hot towers are fresh convections/thunderstorms in eyewall.
this 2
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Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:19 PM
Thanks!
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:20 PM
Particularly strong updrafts as well.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:22 PM
VDM has 137 knots SFMR
That is cat 5
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM
This thing is going to create a monster surge
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM
Costliest storm ever was a 3 at landfall by wind after all
@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) Though the cost was mostly due to the terrible circumstances, with the levees failing and the such
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM
Yeah true
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM
Leevees sucked ass (edited)
New Orleans infrastructures sucked ass.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:26 PM
Catastrophic hurricane in Mississippi, marginal hurricane sideswipe plus cataclysmic engineering disaster in New Orleans
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:28 PM
Winds in NOLA were pretty unimpressive too if I recall correctly
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:28 PM
NOAA 2 still in Laura, AF300 is almost to outer rainband
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:30 PM
I think gusts to category one in NOLA, without levees failing it'd have been just a MIssissippi event pretty much
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:31 PM
That vividly worded bulletin would have busted completely, but it verified for the reason people didn't expect
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:32 PM
Only if someone got head out of ass and have levees fixed in the first place, Katrina wouldn't be #1 most expensive US natural diasater
Harvey would be instead though (to date) (edited)
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:32 PM
Was it storm surge or rainfall that did Houston in?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:32 PM
Rainfall....
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM
Ah, that's right
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM
50"+ of rainfall.
IIRC.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM
Mostly because Harvey dumped FEET of rain
60" record I think.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM
We should probably move this to wx lobby, just so we can keep this chat relevant
this 2
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM
Yeah...
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 09:34 PM
The vividly-worded forecast would not have "busted" if the levees didn't fail. New Orleans WFO covers the portion of Mississippi that was impacted by Katrina.
It was completely accurate for that area, and the NOLA levees weren't involved.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:40 PM
NOAA is still in Laura
Straight from eye
AF is in Laura's outer rainbands atm.
From infrared loop, my estimate for ETA for landfall is 3-5 hours from now. (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:44 PM
That's a wide TOR.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:44 PM
direction i think that is
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:44 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:45 PM
So... ETA for landfall is between 11 pm and 1 am CDT.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:45 PM
yeah couple hours and it should happen.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:46 PM
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:46 PM
50NM to shoreline
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:46 PM
Yeah, I estimated from how far the eye traveled in past 2 hours using infrared.
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Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:47 PM
So there is some time to go before it makes and fall.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:47 PM
Well, I hope they're gone already
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:48 PM
Circle area, shows signs of a eyewall mesovortices.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:48 PM
There has gotta be Cat 5 winds in there.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:48 PM
Both NOAA and AF in storm.
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:49 PM
At its current vector, Laura is only 71 miles offshore.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:49 PM
Oh thats Neat Project Loon is head towards Lakes Charles I think. To provide internet.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:50 PM
I think NOAA may have a run-in with a thunderstorm... not sure
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:50 PM
Those Loon balloons are at 60kft.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:50 PM
Laura's aft eye wall might be collapsing a bit.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:51 PM
What that means?
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:51 PM
Experience live storm chasing & watch top storm chasers stream dashboard video of tornados and extreme weather as it happens. Compatible with Android & iOS.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:51 PM
Mark Sudduth, Greg Nordstrum, Mike Farrow, and Brent Lynn spent last night in Winnie, TX for the night. They are going to set up more cameras and weather stations to monitor the impact from Laura as it approaches the Gulf coast. Follow along with them and see where they go o...
this 2
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:52 PM
there is also his app
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:52 PM
It /could/ be a sign of weakening, but I'm gauging this based on radar presentation.
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
Hopefully it means the intensification is at an end....
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
yeah. If his Cameron cam floods thats surge up to 9feet. (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
Let's see...
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
Recon and sat presentation do not suggest weakening.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
Yeah.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
Hot towers are still going up on N side
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
I said could, not is.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM
It might mean it's going steady, though it might be at the bare minimum of Cat 5 as we speak. (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM
I'll say that mesovortices in the eye is a sign of strengthening.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM
Sudduth has been crushing it. A side note, I don’t see how Lake Charles doesn’t get the eye/eyewall from this. This is almost moving due north now.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM
AF recon is about to hit the NE eyewall, moment of truth in the next 10-20 minutes (edited)
this 4
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM
Sat presentation remains impressive, no warming of the eyewall cloud tops.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM
Here we go... I'm all charged up on coffee. I hope I can stay awake since my usual bedtime is 10 CDT
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:55 PM
I'll stay up for this next advisory then I'll probably go to bed
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:55 PM
Still black/white circle of death on infrared. I don't have morning class so I should be ok.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:55 PM
Is it just me or does the south part of the storm look much weaker part. Normally it would all be pretty bad all around or am I just crazy.
this 1
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:56 PM
Velocity has Cat 5 strength winds at approx 8kft
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Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:56 PM
I wasn't sure if it was the radar. Does the south part seem weaker?
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:56 PM
I've seen plenty of major hurricanes with asymmetric eye wall strengths on radar.
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
@Sean H(Houghton,MI) Yes, the southern parts are weaker. Its the right/front quadrant that is the strongest.
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
Convection is. The “hole” is showing on both KHGX also so it’s not attenuation. The eyewall is still closed but convection is weaker in the south area
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
Landfalling hurricanes typically have the radar-facing side look stronger than the southern side, usually the back eyewall builds right when it is making landfall
👍 1
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
Yeah thats what I was trying to remember if all Hurricanes are like this or Laura is just a special case. Thanks everyone
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
How is our cane doing?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
Near Cat 5
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
She's on steriods
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM
Last radar I saw, the eye was open
was it doing a ERC?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:58 PM
Our girl should make landfall in 3-5 hours. No ERC
We didn't see any ERC today
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:58 PM
Not an ERC, just the typical landfaller look. (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:58 PM
ERC doesn't look likely at this point.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM
Harvey's eye looked like this too, the backside built up on landfall on radar.
I am not sure why that happens but it is a thing.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM
There's a very healthy inflow band on the north side that's been there much of the day.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM
Pretty sure that's radar attenuation mostly
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM
pressure really came down
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM
Imo I think will go CAT 5, just basing how much of a beast this is and the fact of when this hits land, it’s going to strengthen within 20 miles of it being on shore
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM
when in the next update?
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM
Next Hour
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM
when is the next update I mean
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM
I should also mention that our girl RI’ed last night and today.
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM
If anyone here is chasing and will let us pick up their stream on WeatherTV let me know.
this 2
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM
Don't know if anyone is chasing
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:01 PM
0200 Z update still has Laura at 150 mph and at 937 mb.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:01 PM
Got classes so I can’t chase
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:01 PM
Beard
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
Remember updates are like an hour or so behind the latest NHC messages (edited)
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
So is anyone streaming?
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Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
I have a ton of chasers in the area, they just stopped streaming in the past couple hours.
Hopefully they will come back when things pick up
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
Maybe leaving?
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
@Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) scroll up we posted links to streams
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
Like evacuate
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
Glen that takes too much work lol, kidding, I am doing that now
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM
lol
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:03 PM
Recon will penetrate the ne eyewall in the next 10 minutes. Didn’t quite reach it in the recent update (edited)
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:03 PM
Man I this goign to happen on high tide, landfall.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:04 PM
The 0200 Z update was just a position update. They may have used the 0100Z pressure and wind estimates.
Hopefully, they get pressure and wind updates for the 0300 Z update.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM
High tide yikes
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM
This is one hell of a highly anticipated recon pass
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM
The you know what is about to hit the fan
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM
150 people in Cameron Parish refused to leave, planned to weather #Laura in everything from elevated homes to recreational vehicles. “It’s a very sad situation. We did everything we could to encourage them to leave.” #lagov #lawx (from ⁦@AP⁩) https://t.co/4fxKlZPoYQ
Hank 4
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM
Reminds me of the last Michael pass for recon (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM
sigh
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM
I hope they make it
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM
Heard from my mother that the average income for a home in lake charles is 22k yearly
So that could play a role on how bad this gets
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM
To me, sometimes people are unable to evacuate because they have sick/disable family members, dirt poor (edited)
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Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES??
facepalm 2
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM
🤦‍♂️
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Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM
Bruh
Yeah...not looking good for ya
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM
Bruh that RV can move.
Move it!
wesmart 2
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM
Some people are so poor that RV is all they can afford
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM
Still those people are in deep trouble
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM
Gosh haven’t those people thought about not being poor?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM
Hold up, Corbin.
I was born poor
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM
I was being sarcastic Ivy
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM
I have some friends who live in RVs. Honestly sometimes its all you can get.
this 5
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM
That was sarcasm
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM
Maybe add /s next time lol
Agreed with Sean
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:09 PM
Seriously my concern for hurricanes has always been about the impovished communities
they’re ones that get hurt the most
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:09 PM
My family once lived in trailer for few years so tornadoes and derechos are main issues
So... usually the dirt poor are worst hit populations
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:09 PM
got em Ivy... 😉
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM
Yeah they are
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM
Plus you remember these are peoples homes you are talking about. Sometimes it just impossible to let go and leave.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM
Frankly some folks can’t leave for a host of reasons (edited)
Usually its poverty and medical
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM
But where will they go Corbin? Sometimes you dont have family someplace else.
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM
Sorry can’
Its typo chill people
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM
colder convection has finally closed up
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM
ok, this cane is a beast
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM
I just don't think anyone wants jokes when there a dangerous situation gloomy at peoples fronts door. Its people choice it may not be the best but sometimes its all they got.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM
Maybe they don't have the funds to get away
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM
AF data is coming up soon for the eye/NE part
No $ = hard to find places to stay
this 2
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
My point is there is a host of reason why they CAN’T usually its poverty or medical, Grandma’s on oxygen or Dad is in a wheelchair.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
The Hurricane hunters are flying?
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
Hotels are depressingly expensive
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
Yep
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
145 knot Flight level
116 knot SFMR
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
Ya’ll know we’re on the same page right?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
yes.
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM
Yeah, I know the issue of being stuck home because someone who is medically unable to evacuate.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:14 PM
I can see black closing up around the eye now
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:14 PM
Lets move on folks, or take it somewhere else. Thanks
this 3
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Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:14 PM
Keep On Topic..
this 3
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Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
We’re still getting hot towers
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
Wx-Lobby is good place for discussions
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
What’s the ETA on landfall?
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
Watches going up
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
Yes, still
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
Or is it starting?
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
Eye is on Lake Charles Radar right now
where is landfall going to be?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
NOAA plane with 144 knot flight level and 127 knot SFMR
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
I saw 1am? Not sure if that still correct or not
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM
Money says SW LA coast
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:16 PM
1am CDT*
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:16 PM
AF300's in the eye and showing an extrapolated MSLP of 937.8 mb. (edited)
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Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:16 PM
Note: Things will quickly get busy in here as we get closer to landfall. To ensure a smooth experience, please refrain from wishcasting, fearmongering, and off-topic posts. In addition, please refrain from low-quality posts, memes, and one-word/emoji posts. Due to the fast moving pace of this thread, these posts may be removed without warning, don't take it personally. We know people come here for information and discussion, so we would like to keep it clean and easy to find said information. And, as always, read #policies_and_tips for our general rules.
👍 9
this 11
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:17 PM
1AM CDT is around 2AM EST correct? And yeah I’d suggest rate limiting if it’s gonna get flooded soon.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:17 PM
Yes. It is.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM
934.3 extrap by the NOAA plane
category5 1
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J. Mike Sheard (KY) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM
What are the Laura-related tornado watch probs?
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM
60/20
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM
Heres a helpful link I found Recon not sure how quickly it updates or if it has been linked before http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=NOAA2&product_page=hdob
Latest HDOB from NOAA aircraft NOAA2, a Lockheed WP-3D Orion.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM
Recon update 9:15pm CDT: New Air Force plane is just now arriving, finding that #Laura's eastern eyewall remains as strong as it has ever been. No sign of weakening yet. Eye is now ~60 miles from Cameron, LA.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:19 PM
I also have recon data on TT.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:19 PM
so it's 2:19 z right now?
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM
It's 2:19 UTC
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM
Just saw a little bit of pink on N side on infrared (from a hot tower)
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM
yes
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM
2:20 now
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM
Which radar site are you looking at Ivy?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:21 PM
Not radar... satellite.
I'm using infrared on both TT and COD.
Hot towers on N side.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 10:22 PM
UTC equals Greenwich Mean Time which is the time in London England, where the Greenwich Observatory is, in which the Prime Meridian passes through
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:22 PM
Just few pink dots, but mostly white. Also, black/white almost surrounds the eye.
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:22 PM
Latest recon passage supports Cat 5 intensity. 165 mph on eastern eyewall. #laura
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:23 PM
Umm... I'm not familiar with Austin B. sooo... I am not trusting on that one. (edited)
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J. Mike Sheard (KY) 26-Aug-20 10:23 PM
Flight level
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:23 PM
Look at extrapolated surface level...
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:24 PM
Ugh, Laura, you really could've not.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:24 PM
Let me see if there's extrapolated surface wind
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:24 PM
Recon did find 165.7
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:25 PM
I'm looking for surface, not flight level.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:25 PM
Recon did find 165.7
@Sean H(Houghton,MI) flight level or surface? KTS or MPH? (edited)
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:25 PM
Flight level was ~ 11,926 feet
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM
Flight level, it does NOT support cat 5. He’s misinterpreting the data
And the guy deleted the tweet (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM
Flight level winds are usually higher than surface
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM
TORR issued associated with Laura. (edited)
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM
That is encouraging.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM
Latest HDOB from NOAA aircraft NOAA2, a Lockheed WP-3D Orion.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM
Still. This is NOT encouraging. The winds are still high anyway.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM
Warning or watch?
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J. Mike Sheard (KY) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM
CC drop
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM
Also, both NOAA and AF are showing ~935mb in the eye now. (edited)
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM
Went TORR for that cc drop
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
Yeah. TORR says radar-confirmed tornado.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
I wonder if they'll even be able to survey it
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Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
wonder if NWS will issue that hurricane winds imminent statement like they have in the past
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
considering storm surge and wind from the eye itself
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Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
if anyone knows what im referring to
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
You mean an Extreme Wind Warning?
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM
like how they issued tor warnings for the eyewall in the past?
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Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 10:29 PM
yes i think extreme wind warning
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:29 PM
An EWW is certain when Laura's eyewall gets close enough.
this 5
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM
Yeah, last one was Michael and Laura is within 10 mph of Michael
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM
We're tracking Hurricane Laura - get the latest info here: https://abc13.com/forecast/?ex_cid=YouTube And watch live as Laura makes landfall on ABC13's streaming TV and mobile apps. Follow us for more great content! Facebook: https://abc13.co/2HbTdO3 Twitter: https://abc13.c...
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM
EWW are for Cat 3 winds and above, and this is a borderline 5, so Brownsville is just waiting at this point.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM
The N hot tower is close to shore now.
Here are the pink dots again on N hot towers. Latest image.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:32 PM
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:32 PM
The northern eyewall has been producing very strong convection for the past few hours.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:33 PM
Oh yeah... been watching that since that's where the pink dots have been appearing multiple times.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:33 PM
Eye Wall appears to be holding strong, I don't see an EWRC occurring in the short term
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:34 PM
Here is a rain band, embedded tornadic supercell right here.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:34 PM
it's gonna hit land soon
could see a cc drop next few scans
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:35 PM
There are a couple more likely supercells lined up to SE from the image.
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:35 PM
I was watching the loop and that pendant shape was the dead ringer.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:37 PM
you all feel the Lake Charles radar dish will last through the night?
cored 4
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:37 PM
Yes
But that’s w/ a non confident yes
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 10:38 PM
Hopefully the dish itself survives, although I feel communication loss may happen at some point tonight.
this 6
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:38 PM
Not very confident
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:38 PM
Joshua what site are you looking at? I can't see that cell
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:39 PM
I don't know how strong of winds these radars can handle. Hoping the radar survives and doesn't end up like Puerto Rico's after Maria
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM
They might go 160 at 11 pm
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM
winds are at 150?
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM
T number is approx 6.5
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM
Think so.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM
That puts it at cat 4
150 mph confirmed from NHC
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:42 PM
T really doesn't matter when there's recon in it
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:42 PM
@Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC), Radarscope for Windows 10
@Garrett (Hillsdale MI) I am a Dvorak aficionado.
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Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:43 PM
Are there instances other than maria of extreme wind taking out a radar dish? I would imagine the imminent situation with the lake charles dish would be comparible to what happened in maria
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:44 PM
NHC reports 150mph pressure at 940
wow
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Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:44 PM
It's likely going to take a direct hit from the eyewall
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:44 PM
A tornado did that, Drake. So, I doubt that it can survive the eyewall.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:46 PM
the eye is almost totally on lake charles
KLCH
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:46 PM
The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Southeastern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Central Vermilion Parish in southwestern Louisiana... * Until 1015 PM CDT. * At 941 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles south of Forked Island, moving northwest at 80 mph. HAZARD...Tornado.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:46 PM
Andrew took out Miami's radar back in '92, but that was not a WSR-88D I don't think.
The new TORR has a "Damaging tornado" hazard.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:49 PM
AF Dropsonde straight from eye
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:49 PM
~939mb in account for 15kt wind
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:49 PM
NOAA is making another run for eye too.
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Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:51 PM
Thought this was interesting within 20 miles of shore..
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:51 PM
ETA to landfall- 1 to 3 hrs (11-1 am CDT) (edited)
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM
tons of tvs markers showin
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM
that Jared would be higher up, and not necessarily at ground level
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Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM
Hence why i said 20 miles of plus elevation
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM
ok
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM
Thats at about 4000 ft
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James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM
Grabbed this earlier (a bit before 6pm mountain time). That eye... So well defined, and looks sorta hexagon-ish shaped
this 3
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:53 PM
Still high winds at 4kft.
Infrared still showing well defined eye.
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:53 PM
Cursed range folding!
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Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 26-Aug-20 10:53 PM
first signs of weakening
finally seeing some rising central pressure
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:54 PM
Central pressure has only leveled off
Yup, NHC stayed with 130kts/939mb
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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM
Cameron, LA is about to get smacked
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM
Likely will remain the same at landfall
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM
934 extrapolated on the new passs
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM
Even so, this is the strongest storm to impact this area since Rita
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:56 PM
It’s been 934 extrap for a few hours now
Really no sign of more deepening
See what the dropsonde gets
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:56 PM
Again, likely levelling off in intensity
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
Not going to affect much, as winds strengthen during landfall, even if the storm itself is weakening winds will be steady and still hit the area at full force.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
extrap means it's higher up in the cane right?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
And you'll still have extreme storm surge
this 2
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
It's not even really weakening
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
Yeah, looks like the storm is plateauing. Too close to landfall to really matter, but not worse is not worse.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
RI has just stopped
It's holding steady
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM
extrapolated essentially means estimated
usually it's investigated with dropsonde(s) to reach a conclusion
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
So we do have a cat 4 storm?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
Then imply a center fix
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
high up but omf
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
Yes
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
Yes Laura did not make Cat 5.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
We'll continue to have a CAT4 storm till landfall
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
I don't think it will be cat 5
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM
Ehhh, it got close, but 130kts is close enough to CAT5
literally ~6-7kts off
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
It could squeeze in a few more knots as the winds pile up at the coast to get to Cat 5, unlikely but possible.
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Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
where are yall seeing 130?
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
Not much difference between a HE Cat4/LE Cat5...
this 6
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Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
latest public advisory still keeps it at 150mph max sustained winds
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
Yea I agree
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
frictional convergence could aid the higher-level sustained winds mixing down closer to the surface
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM
Doesn't really matter
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM
130 knots Austin
Which is 150 mph
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM
So you could see those winds of 140-145kt (150-160kt gusts) make it below 100-200m
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM
@Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) Yea, totally. Same applies to a HE EF4/LE EF5.
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM
Well....it's subjective, but one difference between HE Cat4 and LE Cat5 is no parents suddenly calling me in a panic because they heard the storm has "gotten worse"
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM
NHC saying those people who stayed behind are gonna die
Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.
Hank 8
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:01 PM
Yikes
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM
Wait, what? I just took 5 minutes to jump into comfy bed with my laptop in my lap to watch this, and I got 30+ message? Let me catch up what's happening. Give me a sec.
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM
They've been using that language since this afternoon; I'll never understand the mindset that makes people stay in the face of that. Only a few of them are people with medical issues who physically can't travel.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM
Does look like Laura may have reached maximum intensity for where it’s at
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM
Wow, that map checked out
That map allows for HE C4 and 930-40 mb
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JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 11:03 PM
Are there still chasers south of Lake Charles? There were some earlier this evening.
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JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 11:04 PM
It is highly likely that nothing will remain in Cameron.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:04 PM
@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) Laura will likely just maintain 130kts till landfall and undoubtedly weaken soon thereafter
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:05 PM
I agree with that assessment, nhc agrees to. Say they don’t expect additional strengthening
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:06 PM
Cameron was wiped out in Rita and Ike, I dunno if anyone will want to return a third time
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:06 PM
I just lost KPLC
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James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 26-Aug-20 11:07 PM
@JakeK (Alexandria, LA) I think some people stay to 'protect their house from looters/etc' ... ofcourse the issue being, there may not be a house to protect (or have protect them from the storm)
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:07 PM
We just broke 1000 mb
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:09 PM
Got a watch box just to the edge of Cameron
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:09 PM
Lake Charles reporting a 45 mph gust. (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:12 PM
NOAA just finished another run through the eye.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:12 PM
IVY you see that on Tropicaltidbits?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:13 PM
You mean the recon?
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:13 PM
yea
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:13 PM
Yes... I do.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:14 PM
Think they will do another run? its really close to landfall
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:14 PM
AF and NOAA are in storm atm.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:15 PM
They’ll be going until landfall
They made a final pass through Michael when part of the eye was on land
So they can do it
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:16 PM
AF made another pass through the eye.
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:19 PM
How long until the eyewall makes landfall?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:20 PM
1-3 hours ETA
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 11:20 PM
2-3 hours most likely
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:20 PM
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from station CAPL1 (29.768N 93.343W) - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA.
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:23 PM
Some places along the LA coast are already recording 4 ft surges.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:24 PM
Newest NW eyewall pass is way higher in that portion than it was before (edited)
933 mb extrap
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM
Um... higher? It was lower than the NHC update.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM
So do you think Laura is at MPI?
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM
Probably.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM
dvorak said she was at MPI, maybe alittle above it
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:28 PM
Wow already 6 ft surges at that one station
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:28 PM
Does anyone know what the largest wave recorded is yet? (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:28 PM
It’s near 100 feet
Wait for Laura? Or ever?
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM
For Laura
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM
Oh, a buoy earlier this morning got a 38 foot wave
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM
That's insane
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM
Not close to the largest
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM
Sure but either way it's impressive
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM
I dunno aboutt hat Zach if it's not coming from a source it not legit.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM
Sounds dubious
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM
I'll go with 38 from a bouy.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM
I think the euro was forecasting 50 foot
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM
Anyone have live camera feeds?
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:31 PM
LSM
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:32 PM
Is there any online source for live satellite-sourced sea surface height?
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:32 PM
Experience live storm chasing & watch top storm chasers stream dashboard video of tornados and extreme weather as it happens. Compatible with Android & iOS.
I-10 is shut down
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:33 PM
they did shut it down oh? (edited)
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:35 PM
I am showing chasers there
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Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 11:35 PM
@Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) thanks!
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:38 PM
Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:38 PM
NOAA is finished. AF is still in storm.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:38 PM
category5 6
❓ 5
Very insane drop just now
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:39 PM
Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:40 PM
152 kt on E eye wall? @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS)
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:40 PM
Okay last one for this #Laura radar thread since I don’t see how it can be topped. There were 6 surrounding bins that were >200mph so I don’t think this outbound velocity was an error despite the value, 223mph! Basically KLCH may have sampled an intense NW eyewall mesovort...
Hank 5
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:40 PM
is that real?
the dropsonde?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:41 PM
@GanondorfMain7606 the drop got destroyed about a few hundred feet above the surface.
But the 951 mb level kept the wind
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:41 PM
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:42 PM
Yep it's a real drop
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:42 PM
MmmHmm... That's intense.
That’s basically 175 mph from dropsonde (edited)
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:43 PM
Cameron LA
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:43 PM
Let see if they go cat 5 in the hourly update (edited)
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:44 PM
completely black
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:44 PM
Could be valid evidence for C5 if we got more like it but doubt they'll go with it
Hope so just for the statistics since the impact really won't change
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:44 PM
about 25NM from shoreline now. (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:45 PM
Brownsville's opting to put much of the LA coast under a tornado warning.
Pretty sure an EWW is not far behind.
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:45 PM
Hot towers on N side hitting the shore now.
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Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 26-Aug-20 11:45 PM
yeah, beastmode drop just now
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:46 PM
Pressure drop?
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 11:46 PM
Storm surge 5.94ft at Calcasieu Pass with winds gusting to 69mph #lawx #txwx
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:47 PM
Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.
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Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 26-Aug-20 11:47 PM
dropsonde
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
Got an image?
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
the drop was destroyed a few hundred feet above the surface
the 951 mb level kept the wind
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
I see now.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
If I’m seeing this correctly a recent #dropsonde in the southwest eyewall of #hurricane #Laura just found #winds of 152kt at the surface, this would be #crazy if true but it’s honestly a little hard for me to believe. Can anyone confirm this? #wx #tropics #GOM
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Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
getting an error on bretts stream
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
Sorry getting a little sleepy. I’m trying to focus. Coffee wasn’t helpful. (edited)
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM
Tornado watch for Cameron
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:49 PM
You mean warning?
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
TOR
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
Evnt 3 miles SSW of LAKE ARTHUR, LA @ 03:00 UTC TOR>-Confirmed Tornado on the ground near Bell City. This tornado is rain wrapped and very
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
Not watch
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
Well shit
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
my bad warning
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
yeah, warning. almost the entire state of LA is in tornado watch at this point.
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:51 PM
Getting pink dot again on N hot towers.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:53 PM
Gust of 61 mph reported in Lake Charles.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:54 PM
EWW
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:55 PM
932.6 mb extrap. 147 knots FL
The lowest extrap and highest flight level yet
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 11:55 PM
I'm back, wtf happened sounds like it got to borderline Cat 5
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 11:55 PM
LCH issues Extreme Wind Warning for Acadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion [LA] and Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange [TX] till Aug 27, 1:00 AM CDT https://t.co/fwt6KvMiMa
category4 7
yee 3
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:56 PM
still cat4
or 4 cats
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:56 PM
There's the EWW.
And some parts of that warning area are also under a tornado warning. >.<
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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:57 PM
Aaannnd my internet disconnected so I’m not getting anything on laptop other than dinosaur game
🇫 7
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:57 PM
@GanondorfMain7606 lmao my kids luv that game.
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:00 AM
Lmao. I turned off the laptop and switched to LTE on my phone so I’ll just be here on Discord for now
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:02 AM
lightning associated with those new convective towers isn't abating
Guess Laura is deciding to NOT stop intensification
troll 4
Hank 3
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:04 AM
144 knots flight level, 118 knots SFMR in the NE quad.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:04 AM
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:04 AM
Guess the E quadrant is the strongest part of the hurricane currently
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:05 AM
Haven’t approached those 133 knot readings in awhile
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:06 AM
Definitely not as strong a case as Michael but it certainly might have been 140kt with several more hours over water
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM
Using a storm motion of 140/60 and putting this into the LCH VWP-derived hodograph yields extreme 0-1 SRH of over 1100 m2/s2.
Hank 4
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM
hard to see, but there's at least 4 evident mesovortices in the eye
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Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM
from SPC MD
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM
More eyewall mesovortex-induced clown numbers
Those mesovortices are no joke
That's ~215 mph
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:08 AM
I’m back. I’ve been having issues Internet so I’m on LTE for now. Damn those mesovortices
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:08 AM
They will significantly enhance ground winds and maybe even produce tornadoes upon landfall
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 12:08 AM
The aforementioned VWP the SPC MD that Jim mentioned is referring to.
this 2
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:09 AM
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:09 AM
No question there’s very powerful shear
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:10 AM
"From the sheriff's office in Vermillion Parish listen to this and I quote, 'For those who didn't evacuate, write your name, address, social security number and next of kin and put it in a ziplock bag in your pocket.'" - @JimCantore https://t.co/yxRBeEoHbD
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:10 AM
0400Z/11:00AM CDT update has Laura still at 150 mph and 938 mb min. central pressure.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:10 AM
Mark Sudduth, Greg Nordstrum, Mike Farrow, and Brent Lynn are facing landfall of Major Hurricane Laura in Southwestern Lousiana. Follow along with them and see what happens. Mark and Mike are riding it out in Shreveport, LA. Brent and Greg will be riding it out near Orang...
all cams up at once
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:12 AM
I don't even blame them. I understand there are select few that can't physically get out but staying in when you are being warned there will be "unsurvivable storm surge" and "catastrophic winds" would make me want to evacuate if I could
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:13 AM
23 miles out and moving at 16mph. The surge will be immediate. #HurricaneLaura
#Cam8 in Cameron Louisiana GIF animation of earlier vs short time ago when we caught lightning to show the water level. https://t.co/Fa5c7pKI7m
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:14 AM
I'm honestly
Very very worried about chasers rn
This isn't a storm to screw around with in that terrain
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:15 AM
there hunkering down in parking garages. The ones I know.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:15 AM
126 knot SFMR. Highest one in awhile
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM
category5 4
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM
Apparently this is where Reed found himself
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM
Wow even more impressive than the last
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM
mean wind profile is consistently 140kts+
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM
151 knot mean lowest 150 meters
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM
Same with the E eyewall dropsonde
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:17 AM
Wait, that one made it all the way?
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:17 AM
142 kT at surface
E eye wall dropsonde got destroyed before hitting the surface
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM
Emergency update?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM
Remember these are instantaneous winds
Not sustained
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM
Unwarned\
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM
Can’t atm. Internet disconnected
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM
Likely gusts getting picked up
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM
Interestingly though, those are uniform and could represent a mean wind sustained
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM
Let’s review some parameters from the most recent SPC mesoscale discussion near the landfall of #Laura: “Putting a storm motion of 140/60 into LCH VWP-derived hodograph yields 0-1km SRH over 1100 m2/s2.” It was at this moment that I immediately CC’ed @CameronJNixon.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM
That’s the counter argument so yeah
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM
Yeah, I hope that's a gust, SFMRs aren't getting that high so
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM
Not saying it's that strong, but it's something to watch (edited)
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Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM
Join Alex and Jason as they ride out Major Hurricane Laura from a well-built parking garage in Lake Charles, LA. They scoped out this location before the storm started and have several days of supplies to self-support themselves if needed. The stream may buffer at times due to...
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:24 AM
Anything on our girl ?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:25 AM
Just some crazy dropsondes
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:25 AM
As others have alluded to this dropsonde in the northern eyewall of #Laura is nuts. After adjusting the winds for gusting, bringing them down to the sfc, & considering undersampling, this supports sustained winds of ~135 kts (155 mph). #Laura is nearly a category 5 hurricane
category5 8
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:28 AM
I get the feeling that post-analysis is likely to put this hurricane at a Cat 4.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:28 AM
Well that's setting up to be a massive constant argument in the post season on whether it deserves an upgrade or not lol
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:29 AM
It'll be a difference of 5 mph, which isn't going to mean much for the impacts.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:29 AM
^
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:29 AM
It won't but people will argue anyway
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:30 AM
87mph gust rn in Calcasiu Pass
Expect stuff to hit the fan bad in about 20 mins
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:30 AM
Eyewall is just about to make landfall.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:30 AM
It's really important for statistics but not at all important for the cataclysmic impact ongoing at the moment and the countless thousands of people who will be impacted
Massively unprecedented either way
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:31 AM
The storm surge will really start to kick in soon
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Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 27-Aug-20 12:31 AM
i see the eyewall roughly 16 miles out, no? so another hour or so?
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM
I see the eyewall touching the shore on KLCH.
Cameron's about to get nailed.
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Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM
Adventurer, Storm Chaser, Foodie, Goofball. paypal.me/nickolasdcook
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM
148 knot Flight level wind. Highest yet
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Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM
ahh yea, i see now
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Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM
more streams
Storm Chaser/Multi-Media Journalist with SVLMediaLLC (StormViewLive) #TwitchStormChasers
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:35 AM
Might have just barely managed to reach cat 5
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 12:36 AM
Latest dropsonde data reveals 142 kt (~163 mph) surface winds w/ 146 kt (~168 mph) winds just—and I mean just—above the surface. Provided that this is a correct measurement, #Laura is likely a Category 5 hurricane.
category5 2
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 12:36 AM
GREAT NEWS! Our radar is back up and running at normal operations! We thank you all for our patience and understanding! Stay Safe!
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 12:37 AM
Oh good, glad they got that radar back online! I don't think the Lake Charles radar stands much of a chance with it dealing with the worst side of the storm
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:39 AM
New FFW.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:40 AM
Looks like we lost the data from the tide station near Cameron, LA when the northern eye hit.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:46 AM
Measured Gusts in excess of 90 mph at Calcasieu pass, LA (edited)
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 12:47 AM
inner eyewall making its way inland
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:47 AM
just about there
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:49 AM
89 MPH gust reported 2 W of Cameron.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:50 AM
I’m hoping the anemometers don’t fail
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:50 AM
Some might.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:50 AM
https://twitter.com/Or20182/status/1298785676842774529 5 tweets posted seconds before disaster
This Hurricane Laura will probably blow over. I refuse to leave my home on the beach in Holly Beach, LA
Facepalm 5
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM
UPDATE: Conditions deteriorating rapidly in Lake Charles with winds gusting over 70 mph. DEPLOYED infrasound sensor of @ChasinSpin to measure the heartbeat of #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/6DnxJqa86B
Likes
130
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM
Most anemometers sold to the public are not meant to stand anything past 90 mph, 110+ many will break.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM
This was from a buoy.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM
mine does
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM
Significant velocities approaching the shore
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM
Well, nice expensive ones can take a beating.
The common PWS ones will break 100+
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:52 AM
Yeah, but even those can fail in 150mph+ winds.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:52 AM
yes they will
lol just gett hte infared ones
my kestrel is rated at 131mph rated.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:54 AM
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:54 AM
Winds in Cameron are probably going up very fast.
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Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 27-Aug-20 12:56 AM
some bigger gusts here now (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:57 AM
Stay safe.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:57 AM
Still 150 mph at the 12am update
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:58 AM
At this point any upgrade to Cat 5 will be in post, right now shit's going downhill really quickly.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:58 AM
In post or we get a coastline surface measurement from Cameron or Calcasieu pass
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:59 AM
There are not many weather stations in that area.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM
Cameron gusting to 110 mph now
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM
Really don't like people like this. https://twitter.com/ravi4bharat/status/1298843086076829696 (edited)
Another view at Lake Charles. #HurricaneLaura @WeatherGoinWILD https://t.co/JhXZnjUTXi
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM
where are you getting that data @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS)
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM
hate people likes this.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM
A met posted it in another server
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:01 AM
Comment removed for posting factually?
The eyewall did contract a little in the last radar pass.
Not saying it is going to intensify, but it will increase the amount of time Cameron will be in this.
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Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY) 27-Aug-20 01:02 AM
Heres what im seeing for mesowest, maybe the data is averaged or delayed
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:03 AM
939 mb dropsonde with 15 knot winds, first 930s drop in a few hours
Sustained winds of 85 mph at Calcasieu pass
Gusts to 105 mph
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:04 AM
Alex I delete ur comment?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:04 AM
I don't know, it just vanished. (edited)
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 01:04 AM
Fwiw, #KLCH radar inbound velocities in the eastern eyewall of #Laura are up to 175 mph ~900m above the sfc. Reduction of those winds to the sfc would result in a max sfc wind of ~160 mph, making #Laura a category 5 hurricane. Impacts wont change regardless of semantics tho #...
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM
they are gonna have to ret-con this into a cat 5
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM
Sorry i was trying to delete mine, lol. My appolgies. Was tryignt o figure out your comment. lol
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM
Oh I see, it's all good lol
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM
dropsones, inbounds all showing 160-165mph when reducted toe surface
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM
I am concerned for Holly Beach, they won't get an eye break, also all those small towns in the E eyewall that also won't get a break.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:06 AM
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM
where are yall getting that data for the meso site?
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM
Holly Beach has a off shore wind tho, that may help with surge
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from station CAPL1 (29.768N 93.343W) - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA.
Spann 1
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM
Surge will pick up for them when it moves inland, and after a long wind beating as well.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:08 AM
It’s at this buoy station but this is about 10 minutes more delayed
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:08 AM
A lot of that farmland in the Eastern eyewall without an eye break will probably not be arable for a long time.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:08 AM
If Laura's deemed a cat 5, that would make it only two years between two consecutive cat 5 landfalls in the US. (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM
US Landfalls you mean? (edited)
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM
Yeah.
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Zach C. (Kelowna, BC) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM
Am I going crazy, or are all these mesovortices? Not 100% sure
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM
Those are mesovorticies
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM
At 11:52 PM CDT, 2 W Cameron [Cameron Co, LA] MESONET reports HURRICANE. 110 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED VIA WEATHERFLOW STATION IN CAMERON. https://t.co/9kmidGBUOu
Here’s the 110 mph gust at Cameron
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 01:10 AM
3 years in a row, Michael 2018, Dorian 2019, Laura??? 2020
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:10 AM
Hope that station doesn't go out, but it seems more likely than not
Dorian didn't make official U.S. landfall as a Category 5 keep in mind
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM
Camera 8 is literally underwater yet it still manages to broadcast. Cam 8 has the resolve to make it through 2020. #cam8 #camera8 #laura #laurahurricane
Yao 4
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Jack | (Findlay, OH) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM
If you're talking whole Atlantic, 4 years in a row counting Laura. Irma and Maria
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM
Wasn’t Matthew the year before that
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM
Just before midnight in Sulphur #Louisiana. Starting to rip. #Hurricane #LAURA https://t.co/vi9b0hCdXX
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM
Don't remember
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Jack | (Findlay, OH) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM
Assuming this is referring to landfall
Matthew was the year before yes
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:12 AM
I thought maybe Cat 4, but I don't exactly remember
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:12 AM
Calcasieu pass now gusting to 110 mph
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:13 AM
Imagine the readings once those mesovorticies get there.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:13 AM
Anyone know what the status of the Lake Charles Sasol plant is? Was it shut down well in advance?
Just kinda thinking about what they make there and the implications if there's a spill 😐
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:13 AM
And Laura's making landfall.
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 27-Aug-20 01:14 AM
Cameron is almost in the eye
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 01:15 AM
I bet the Cameron station is already down
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Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 01:17 AM
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Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY) 27-Aug-20 01:18 AM
Heres the best data i can get from cameron, feel free to post your links too: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CAPL1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:19 AM
115 mph gust at Calcasieu pass
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 01:21 AM
In minutes, #Laura’s eye will be reaching Cameron Parish, where I met 87 year old Henry McCall this morning. I told him the storm surge was being labeled “unsurvivable.” He told me he’d probably ride it out in his home, sitting atop steel pylons, 20’ up. I sure hope he lef...
😬
cameron underwater, camera died (edited)
Hank 5
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:23 AM
Meanwhile the small town of Grand Chenier is in the eastern eyewall, probably going to be in it for a while, and possibly might not get a break (and if it does a very short one).
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 01:23 AM
I believe that Hurricane Track has their cameras mounted 9 feet up, for reference
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM
Cameron probably getting the mesovorticies right now
Almost in the eye
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM
So what is the status of the cane?
cat 4 ?
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM
yep
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM
High end Cat 4
150 mph making landfall
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM
4 cats
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM
talk of retrograde cat 5 as well
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Craig Millard (Starkville, MS) 27-Aug-20 01:26 AM
Those western eyewall mesovortices will likely pass through/near Holly Beach
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 01:26 AM
eye wall looks open
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:26 AM
A little dry air entrainment, but at this point it matters not
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:27 AM
Lake Charles METAR reporting 62 KT gust.
Sustained winds 45 KT.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:27 AM
Calcasieu pass up to 103 knot gusts (118 mph)
Sustained 70 knots
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:28 AM
Hackberry in eyewall, Lake Charles radar reading 110mph winds aloft overhead
Eyewall closing up
Landfall back-bands building.
She's gonna pound these areas for a while.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 01:29 AM
Forward movement?
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:30 AM
Last moments before massive and sudden surge hit our camera in Cameron Louisiana #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/r2dDM8904v
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Zach C. (Kelowna, BC) 27-Aug-20 01:34 AM
Had to have counted at least half a dozen mesovortices. Cameron and areas west are getting battered by them
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:35 AM
12:25 am. Just outside the eyewall. Last drive before I hunker down. #Hurricane #LAURA in Sulphur #Louisiana https://t.co/gcQT2ucmzi
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:36 AM
125 mph gust at Calcasieu pass
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:36 AM
...I think I just saw a car drive over the I-10 bridge on the camera feed
yeah, confirmed, it showed up on the i-10 at ryan street camera right after. looked like an SUV or pickup truck.
thonk 3
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 01:37 AM
Things are getting really hairy on Reed's stream
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:37 AM
Do you have a link @Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK)
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:37 AM
Provides up to the minute traffic and transit information for Louisiana. View the real time traffic map with travel times, traffic accident details, traffic cameras and other road conditions. Plan your trip and get the fastest route taking into account current traffic conditions.
Spann 1
using that to jump between the cameras fast. hit cameras over on the map legend and you can click from camera to camera.
both i-10 bridge cameras just went offline though
I think all the DOTD cameras in lake charles are down now
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM
Pressure just bottomed out at 936mb's at Cameron. Now we see how calm it will be in the eye. #HurricaneLaura
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM
Well I saw one car lol
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM
The eye shots are gonna be beautiful.
The really muddied up rusty silver lining, at least.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM
KLCH radar now on generator power
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:40 AM
At least the Waffle House is open
🧇 3
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:41 AM
Might lose KLCH soon.
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Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 01:41 AM
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 01:43 AM
3D view of the eyewall on GR2 (edited)
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 01:43 AM
Land has entered the eye
Its the endgame boys
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:45 AM
Just turned off WeatherNation to go sleep. Something oddly familiar and comforting about hurricane coverage.
yee 3
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:45 AM
Beats hearing about COVID and elections every second of the day to be honest.
this 10
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 01:46 AM
Calcasieu pass 127 mph gust
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Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM
Does, doesn't it?
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM
Who ordered a Large TOR
Hank 2
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM
Pronounced boot-heel, or booth-eel?
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM
So we got Landfall?
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM
Looks that way.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM
Since Laura is making landfall her backside is starting to build, southern eyewall closed and thickening and bands on her back half are building like what happens on most landfalling canes. She's only halfway done. (edited)
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:49 AM
Recon is actually entering the eye one last time now
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:49 AM
Would that be USAF or NOAA? Because I thought NOAA called it a day.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:49 AM
USAF
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:50 AM
@NWSLakeCharles conditions deteriorating rapidly in Sulphur, LA with major and frequent power flashes. #wxtwitter #StormHour #HurricaneLaura #lawx https://t.co/tlzx1r23U7
Hank 3
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:51 AM
Lake Charles Nuclear Plant has reportedly started to flood
Hank 2
exwtf 3
CONTAMINATED 4
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:51 AM
If that is the case, power outages inbound
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:52 AM
source is 'snapchat streams' so take it with a grain of salt
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 01:53 AM
Surprised we haven't been seeing higher sustained
But that's probably because the instruments died
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:54 AM
WFO Tampa bay (for st charles) declares landfall
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:54 AM
Maximum winds that came onshore will be determined by analyzing the damage.
Which is how Michael got upgraded
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:55 AM
Jeff P. says that Lake Charles airport reported a wind gust of 105 mph. I think the METAR feed from KLCH is down since it hasn't updated in about an hour, though.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:55 AM
(Screen grab) seeing a bunch of power flashes around downtown Beaumont right now @NWSHouston
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:55 AM
An extreme wind warning is in effect for Lake Charles LA, Sulphur LA, Orange TX until 3:00 AM CDT for extremely dangerous hurricane winds. Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to an interior room or shelter NOW!.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:56 AM
Landfall probably going to be declared with the advisory realase.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:56 AM
Okay, did some digging - the thing that people were reporting as 'nuclear power plant' is actually fueled by rice hulls (Agrielectric Plant), but there is apparently a Westinghouse facility in Lake Charles that assembles reactor components. That might have been where the story came from.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:57 AM
Confirmed 104 mph gust at Lake Charles airport.
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:58 AM
Because of those speeds, the Delta flights from Las Vegas to Seattle have been canceled.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:58 AM
About to be more. Eyewall very close.
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 01:59 AM
Yeah, just check the high density obs on mesowest for the 5 minute intervals until the KLCH ASOS goes down
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:59 AM
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
category4 9
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:59 AM
Lake Charles Nuclear Plant has reportedly started to flood
@Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK)
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:00 AM
Debunked, did some digging and there is no nuclear plant.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 02:00 AM
3.6. Not great, not horrifying.
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 02:02 AM
Alright, I'm gonna head to bed now, goodnight. Hopefully no fatalities occurred/will occur, but given the immense power of it, it would not shock me if some do happen (edited)
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:02 AM
I think we just lost KLCH radar.
🇫 7
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:02 AM
There were 2 fatalities via rip currents from Laura in Florida earlier today (edited)
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 02:04 AM
Damn, that sucks.
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Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 27-Aug-20 02:04 AM
@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ I understood that reference.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:05 AM
KLCH not updating
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:05 AM
Both KLCH and KPOE are not updating now, which would suggest communication failure.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:06 AM
KPOE might still be online
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:06 AM
nop
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:06 AM
KLCH is gone for sure.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM
Lost it as soon as the eyewall hit it
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM
I wouldn't say that
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM
All of the streams down where it initially came ashore are offline
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM
It probally shut down
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM
Hopefully it's just a case of all those people losing service and nothing worse
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:08 AM
KHGX is the only one
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 27-Aug-20 02:08 AM
Tweets
125
Followers
15
this reads like trolling
and i really hope it is trolling
even though if it is its absolutely disgusting
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:09 AM
It most likely is trolling, Last tweet 48 mins ago I don't see how comms would even be up by that point.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:09 AM
Stephanie Abrams just narrowly missed a large piece of debris on TWC while live. (edited)
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Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 27-Aug-20 02:10 AM
is there a clip of that?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 02:10 AM
Spotr 3 miles S of WESTLAKE, LA @ 06:07 UTC Wind (80mph) [M]>-Measured 143.7 mph
thonk 2
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:10 AM
I saw it live, I’ll see if I can find a clip
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 02:11 AM
KLCH METAR updated.
Reporting 57 kt sustained with a gust of 85 kt.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:12 AM
I don't know what to make of that twitter account, it's a really.... strange.... account for sure.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:12 AM
Scroll a bit back on that stream
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM
I think it might be a troll account, they claim to have been present at literally every newsworthy even this year.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM
looks like the folks who were on top the parking garage in lake charles are relocating down to not be on the roof
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM
Lake Charles just lost power finally on Reed's
Those power lines fought a good fight
this 6
🇫 4
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM
lots of transformers failing visible on the stream too
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 02:14 AM
TWC almost had a reporter hit by a bit of debris
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:14 AM
KLCH is actually a top trend on Twitter lol
Yao 5
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:16 AM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:17 AM
Here’s the best clip I found
Did anyone just catch this on the weather channel? Whoaa. #HurricaneLaura #HurricanLaura #laura https://t.co/iKGmp4C72Q
You can see it more clearly there. It was glass shattering
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:20 AM
Yeah looks like it
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:20 AM
So far thankfully no reports of water rescues but I imagine people near the coast can't get in to 911
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Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:21 AM
There will be no water rescues for hours sadly.... Even the Sherriff already stated if you did not evacuate, Take a paper write down your info and next of kin and put it in a ziplock bag
and stick it in your pocket (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:24 AM
Back half of eyewall approaching Cameron
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:25 AM
128 mph gust at lake Charles
Hank 6
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:27 AM
Getting raked. #Hurricane #LAURA in Sulphur #Louisiana https://t.co/tmbHEHB9FG
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174
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:30 AM
128 mph wind gusts in Lake Charles Regional Airport. #HurricaneLaura #laura #lawx
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:30 AM
A/C units just got ripped off the building next to the parking garage.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:31 AM
Jeff P had to move his car
Almost got hit by flying windows
And a car behind him flipped
He's behind a concrete wall now
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:33 AM
any idea what he's using to get signal out?
nevermind just got my answer, he's using cell phone. call comes in, data drops.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:34 AM
Among the many things I'm worried about with Hurricane Laura is the I-10 bridge in Lake Charles. It has a sufficiency rating of 7.6 out of 100. To put that in context, the Interstate 35 West bridge in Minneapolis that collapsed in 2007 had a sufficiency rating of 50.
Retweets
953
Likes
2019
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:34 AM
jeffp streaming?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:34 AM
Wonder how this bridge is holding up in lake Charles (edited)
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM
yep, he's still online
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM
got a link?
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Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM
Already dropped it
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM
That youtube link right there
He's about halfway through the eye wall right now
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM
Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.
I see your link and raise you Brett Adair 😛
So it made landfall as a cat 4?
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:36 AM
O___o where in the world is Brett holed up?
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Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:37 AM
Yep
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:37 AM
He is in Lake Charles
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:38 AM
More of the view he's got. Is he looking out the entrance to a parking garage?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:38 AM
Yeah he didn't wanna risk death by surge going anything closer
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:38 AM
is that water on Jeff P's feed?
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:39 AM
In the air? Yeah. They're talking about how it 'smells like oil' now though.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:39 AM
All hell is breaking loose. Inner eyewall of #HurricaneLaura . Lake Charles, Louisiana. https://t.co/IeZY70ZOG2
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:41 AM
Jeff getting the full force of the winds now
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:41 AM
Cantore getting wrecked by leaves.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:41 AM
WATCHING THE LAKE CHARLES CIVIC CENTER FALL APART IN FRONT OF US. EVERY SINGLE GLASS WINDOW US BREAKING OFF AND SHATTERING IN MID AIR. HURRICANE FORCE NOW #LakeCharles #HurricaneLaura
Hank 8
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:42 AM
Lake Charles may get one a bit of the eye. Not all of it.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:45 AM
is it just me or is the eye wall thickening as it passes overtop of lake charles?
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:46 AM
Lost jeff P
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:46 AM
It's cause journalists keep calling him
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:48 AM
Cameron entering back eyewall
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:49 AM
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:50 AM
did recon release any data on their most recent flight through?
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:51 AM
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:51 AM
Calcasieu pass with a 102 mph gust in the south eyewall
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:52 AM
And 11 feet surge
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 02:52 AM
jeffs number apparently got leaked on 4chan
🤦‍♂️ 5
that's why he's getting spam called.. 😬
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 02:52 AM
sigh
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:53 AM
I second that sigh
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:57 AM
BREAkING! Buildings gutted in Lake Charles LA in powerful eye wall of #HurricaneLaura @RadarOmega_WX @ChasinSpin https://t.co/wP3fPyREIZ
CENTER EYEWALL CAT 4! This is what I’ve wanted for 5 years!
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 03:00 AM
This could arguably be the worst Gulf coast storm since Katrina in 2005
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:00 AM
Jeff P's stream is dead 😦 just as the eye was about to come over
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:01 AM
LAKE CHARLES MUNI,LA (LCH) ASOS reports gust of 116 knots (133.5 mph) from E @ 0642Z -- KLCH 270653Z AUTO 11085G115KT 1/4SM FG VV006 25/ A2831 RMK AO2 PK WND 100116/0642 RAEMM PRESFR SLP594 P0013 T0250 PWINO $
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 03:02 AM
YIKES
Reed's trying to drive rn
Almost got hit by a tree branch
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:07 AM
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:08 AM
Lake Charles is in the eye
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:09 AM
Hard to believe there is like 0 wind in Houston.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:09 AM
Laura took it all. She's selfish like that. (edited)
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:10 AM
Lol yeah. Nothing at my parents house.
And glad my twin sister name is Lara not Laura lmao
Lake Charles will barely be in the eye. Yikes
this 4
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:16 AM
Looks like the eye is about to break open on radar
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:16 AM
Reed hasn't said a word for nearly 5 minutes on his livestream when the gusts picked up quite a lot
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 03:17 AM
Did he leave the car? (edited)
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:17 AM
I think so, and a huge piece of metal just flew into his car
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:18 AM
That metal, uh wow
Intense stuff
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:18 AM
I don't know where he went to, I assume a Twitter video. looks like he's driving now though possibly
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 03:19 AM
someone in reeds stream chat is watching their office building get destroyed
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:20 AM
Sounds like a personal weather station (Davis) measured a 137 MPH gust in Lake Charles before it was destroyed. Absolutely horrific situation with tornado-like damage over the entire city. Probably will look like Panama City did after Michael.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:20 AM
what is the link to reed stream?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:21 AM
Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist, Golden, Colorado. 1,332,560 likes · 174,272 talking about this. Extreme meteorologist who chases tornadoes hurricanes & blizzards! PhD in meteorology from OU
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:22 AM
snapmap is insane. There's a video of some guy with his hand cut open covered in blood from debris
getting hit by debris
seems like reed is ok
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 03:27 AM
Reed appears to have abandoned dom fore
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:30 AM
Alright I'm calling it a night. First day of grad school today. Oof always some kind of weather event when something important happens lmao.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 03:30 AM
yep, reed 100% abandoned dom 4
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:32 AM
Think he tag teamed to go take video in the actual eye
since it wobbled westward
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:32 AM
Clearly I need to go back and watch some footage
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:33 AM
left his stream up of near eyewall conditions
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:33 AM
Believe I missed out on the actual meat of the eyewall footage
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Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:34 AM
there were a few good peak action shots from the guy on YT on the rooftop, from Reed, and TWC as far as I know. Justin/iCyclone or w/e his tag is also had some good footage, of course
checking snapmap for any more notable footage
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:35 AM
I got some marathoning to do this weekend clearly
From the looks of it, every bit as violent as feared
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 03:36 AM
THEY'RE BACK
Or just drove by
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:39 AM
More damage occurring, big problems here in Lake Charles #HurricaneLaura
We absolutely have to be in the mesovorticies of the eastern Eyewall. We have partially clear skies overhead, no rain, but brutal winds 100+ mph continue.
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:43 AM
Refinery about to go boom according to Reed'
reed's feed
sorry brett's feed
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:51 AM
I can 100% assure you guys this place has been shredded. We’re venturing around the casino. For a lack of better words, It looks like every single tree has been hit with a giant weed eater.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 03:55 AM
Gotta love Reed getting back in the car
Sitting for 30 seconds without saying a word
Then leaving again
If they need to switch cars you think he'd grab the camera
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:59 AM
2:50 am. The sounds of the eye. One of the nicest I've penetrated. Wanna be in it forever. #Hurricane #LAURA in Sulphur #Louisiana https://t.co/8lfYE79YtU
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🔊🔊🔊 SOUND UP Listen to the wind inside this casino in Lake Charles as Hurricane Laura rips across the region with reports of winds over 120 mph! We're live with team coverage as the storm continues to impact the coastline and move inland. #HurricaneLaura #LAwx https://t.c...
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 04:37 AM
Southern Eyewall of #HurricaneLaura storm surge beginning around the Golden Nugget Casino. #lawx — Lake Charles, LA, United States
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 05:09 AM
Fell asleep then woke back up with Internet restored. Her eye is well inland.
She may keep producing tors well inland...
Rainfall also well inland.
NHS states that she’s still 120 mph Cat 3 with eye way inland.
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-Aug-20 05:30 AM
Well this has been insane lol so much so the adrenaline crash is happening and the winds are still ripping
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 27-Aug-20 06:13 AM
Laura now a cat 2 as of 6 am est
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 06:39 AM
All the attention is on Lake Charles but I am really concerned with what we are going to see from Holly Beach and Cameron
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 07:12 AM
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 07:21 AM
Communication towers are completely collapsed in downtown Lake Charles, LA #lawx #HurricaneLaura
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 27-Aug-20 08:22 AM
Hurricane Laura hit Sulphur, Louisiana overnight, leaving significant damage in its wake all across town. Video was shot during the early morning hours of August 27th, 2020. #Hurricane Laura #Sulphur #Louisiana #LAWX
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 08:26 AM
Morning.., looks like she’s Cat 1 by now.
Hey eye is already clouded over from satellite.
Also, it’s pretty cloudy here from Laura’s circulation.
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Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 27-Aug-20 08:43 AM
What major events did I miss last night?
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 08:58 AM
Breaking news: I found a man in the middle of the bay in storm surge water south side of I-10 house clasped. He was trapped under walls.He is hyperthermia have another local taken him to mother house. Finding people in the water. #lawx
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 08:59 AM
Many quick to jump on the "surge wasn't that bad" bandwagon. The risk shifted east - to mostly uninhabited, low-lying marsh areas that lack places to get high water mark observations that are so critical in determining heights. Looks like the USGS has one temporary gauge ther...
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 27-Aug-20 09:14 AM
Why was Jeff in the middle of the bay?
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 09:14 AM
Breaking news: I found a man in the middle of the bay in storm surge water south side of I-10 house clasped. He was trapped under walls.He is hyperthermia have another local taken him to mother house. Finding people in the water. #lawx
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Probably why @Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:17 AM
someone yesterday i told to watch out for hurricane force winds in alexandria. they said i was crazy. then alexandria got evac'ed overnight
a little turn goes a long way, and this wind field is still nasty
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:20 AM
lol are people seriously saying the "surge wasn't bad"?
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:21 AM
it coudl hve been much worse. the storm landfalled about 30 miles east of where it was forecast
right front quad was over a nature reserve, instead of the calcasieu river
the river surged, but didn't back-up 20 feet high
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:22 AM
10 feet is still bad in that area.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:22 AM
yeah, areas on the coast likely are destroyed and many dead, but lake charles was largely spared
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:22 AM
I am really concerned for Cameron and Holly Beach
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:23 AM
they had some locals on tv saying that cameron has 150 people. mostly old farts that refused to leave
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:23 AM
It does give off that vibe.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:23 AM
water was up to windows on the cameras chasers had placed before the camera was destroyed. it was 9 feet high
well, it wasn't destroyed, it was underwater
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 09:24 AM
The 2 communities of Creole and Grand Chenier are likely destroyed by surge. They’re to the east of Cameron along LA-82
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:24 AM
yeah, they got michael'ed
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:25 AM
Also Lake Charles still got hit by massive winds.
Power is out for half of LA's population right now probably speaking.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:25 AM
surge was pretty low until about 20 minutes before the eye, that was waht the camera showed
then a huge surge at the last minute. just like michael
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 09:26 AM
Yeah lake Charles was pretty much the only place with weather obs that got hit by the east eyewall that’s close to the coast.
Probably why we didn’t get any even higher obs
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:27 AM
yeah its a no-mans-land between lake charles and lafayette. small towns /w no media / cameras
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:28 AM
I just really hope people really don't start saying shit like "Laura wasn't as bad as they said it would be, I am not leaving next time, etc." That sort of mentality is bad enough when people don't treat Cat 1-2s with respect, but if people start to say that with a Cat 4 (possibly a 5 in post) then I don't know what to think of people.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 09:29 AM
Brunt of the surge looked like it hit mostly marshes. I would of been curious if instruments were out there to measure it
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:29 AM
Damage analysis should give us a better idea.
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:31 AM
very few tidal gauges in that area. not sure we'll have much info
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 09:32 AM
Wonder if after this they'll potentially put a few out there just in case for the next one
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:33 AM
"strongest storm to hit louisiana in 150 years"
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 09:34 AM
I saw a tweet that the USGS had a temporary gauge installed near Grand Chenier
Last radar image from LCH before data feed went down. Area along Highway 82 just off the coast between Grand Chenier and Pecan Island took the brunt of the eastern eyewall and probably the maximum surge. May take awhile to learn more. We’ll see if we get any NOAA aerial photo...
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 27-Aug-20 09:43 AM
Probably why @Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO)
@Sean H(Houghton,MI) no, that tweet is why I asked the question lol
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 27-Aug-20 09:45 AM
NOT FOR BROADCAST Contact Brett Adair with Live Storms Media to license. [email protected] Various Clips of Damage including: Gas Station, Downtown Businesses, Trees and Power Lines, Surge
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 10:10 AM
Chemical leak south side of I-10 west Lake area west of Lake Charles. 911 is aware they are overwhelmed. @NWSLakeCharles #lawx
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 10:17 AM
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 10:18 AM
Aaaand that's what I was afraid of.
We got any idea which specific facility? Had a look through the stuff made in that area and its a laundry list of "this leaking would be bad."
If that pic w/lake charles sign is where I think it is (facing west on I-10 near where it goes over LA-378), leak would be on the south side of I-10. Could be BioLap/KIKCorp. Brake fluid, pool treatments, antifreeze, bleach, household cleaners.
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Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-Aug-20 10:36 AM
LCH radar is going to be down a minute.... #Laura -
🇫 14
Hank 1
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 10:51 AM
Reminds me of Maria. Pretty much the same
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Kirk Giglio (E CT) 27-Aug-20 10:58 AM
Chemical leak is numbing to watch, gotta hope there’s no one sheltering in place still in the area and got away from the cloud
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 10:58 AM
Damn, was hoping the radar could somehow survive
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 10:59 AM
F for radar
🇫 1
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:00 AM
Yeesh
That'll buff out
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Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 27-Aug-20 11:10 AM
Well theres your problem
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:27 AM
Any updates about the chemical leak/fire? At work, can't pull up streams.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 11:30 AM
Still burning looks like
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:36 AM
Did they figure out which plant it was?
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 11:37 AM
Saw a posting about it being a chlorine one
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Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 27-Aug-20 11:37 AM
A very bad chemical... (edited)
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:39 AM
Yeah, that was kinda my fear.
If that's truly Biolab/Kikcorp south of I-10 then chlorine is a very real possibility.
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 11:45 AM
Oh goodness that radar ended up like Puerto Ricos after Maria
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 11:54 AM
Better view of the radome up close at @NWSLakeCharles
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Hank 6
This is from KPLC (Lake Charles TV station). They have confirmed that the tower did fall into the studio, so thank goodness they evacuated to Alexandria and Baton Rouge.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 12:00 PM
Oh wow. Glad they left.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 12:01 PM
5 mile evac zone on the chemical fire.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:05 PM
Impressive
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 12:14 PM
Oof. Do we know what chemicals are the cause?
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:20 PM
Probably some kind of chemicals.
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 12:20 PM
Mustmoji
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:21 PM
That radar dome is going to be in a rough state for a while though. Yeesh.
Looks like the Tootsie Roll Pop owl made a stop by that thing.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 12:22 PM
Pieces of @NWSLakeCharles radome blown well down stream from the pedestal ESE to WNW. #Hurricane #Laura
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 12:23 PM
Best guess from me is chlorine, but it could be a horrible cocktail of chlorine and a ton of other stuff. That company makes a wide range of products - bleach, brake fluid, pool treatments, antifreeze. Unsure of exactly what at that specific location, but a 5 mile evac zone to me sounds like chlorine.
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 12:24 PM
Hopefully no farmland or agricultural land nearby cause that’s a RIP Topsoil
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:25 PM
If I remember correctly 88Ds it can withstand up to 130mph winds. You can correct me.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 12:30 PM
BREAKING: Louisiana's first fatality from Hurricane Laura has been reported as a 14-year-old girl https://t.co/h8bVt4gum0
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😢 6
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:38 PM
I'd honestly wager the Lake Charles area probably saw a couple of Michael-esque gusts
That eyewall convection was incredible and probably helped yank some of those nasty FLs to the sfc
Or one of those nutso mesovortices. That too
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:43 PM
Western side of the eyewall was getting some pretty interesting structure forming on radar images. Likely to do with those mesovorticies scooping into the eyewall itself.
Eastern side surprisingly wasn't showing that much higher winds (at 2-4Kft mind you) before the radar went out.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 12:45 PM
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 12:45 PM
Any idea how KPOE radar site faired? It went down 2 minutes after klch
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Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 27-Aug-20 12:46 PM
Woah on that hangar damage on what appears to be 80 year old planes.
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 12:46 PM
I believe that it’s fine, I think it just lost power, but I’m just guessing though
It likely lost the ability to transit the data out
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:56 PM
KPOE is handled out of the same building as KLCH I think
So when the dish crashed into the NWS building at KLCH it might have knocked out comms with KPOE. They went down at almost the exact same time. Within 2 minutes of each other from what I remember last night.
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:57 PM
Yeah.
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 01:00 PM
I'm surprised they can't/don't route the data to a different service building on the fly.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:01 PM
Laura now a 70 mph tropical storm
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 01:03 PM
I'm surprised the wind field is staying as confined as it is. I remember Irma had its wind field open up to pretty much encompass all of Florida and Georgia in TS force winds when it made landfall.
Then again, Irma was dummy thicc of a storm to begin with. Isaias was reasonably compact.
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 01:23 PM
A category 4 storm has knocked a riverboat casino into a poorly rated bridge while a chemical fire burns in the background. That's the kind of morning it is in SW Louisiana right now.
Initiate boat watch?
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:28 PM
Almost feel like we need a 2020 emote now to react to that tweet properly...
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:30 PM
Don't forget about the picture
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:30 PM
That's a 2020 picture if I've ever seen one
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:30 PM
Haha yeah
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:34 PM
Pretty much
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 01:35 PM
Looks like that the river casino crashed into the I-10 bridge over the Calcasieu River (edited)
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:35 PM
Never ideal to have bridges being crashed into
Had that in Mobile during Katrina iirc
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:38 PM
Well this bridge already at a 6.0/100 rating.
Sorry 9.9/100
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GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM
Late to party but that's 2020 at its finest
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM
i'm honestly surprised to see the bridge still standing today
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM
Same man. Same.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM
We had a bridge over Lake Champlain when I was in NY that rated at like a 40/100, they demolished it a few weeks later and waited like a year to rebuild it 😐
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:42 PM
Still better than this bridge haha. But it just cost to much to fix and repair this one.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:42 PM
2 hour detour without the ferry, that was not a fun time
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:46 PM
I mean the Brooklyn Bridge is a sufficiency zero
Lot of factors going into that rating
A large casino crashing into even a new bridge will probably cause issues lol
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:48 PM
My house is a total loss in Hurricane Laura. These pictures were taken less than 24 hours apart as we were evacuating Lake Charles.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:50 PM
Did a tornado do that? Or eyewall winds?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:51 PM
Lake Charles would definitely be eyewall
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:52 PM
Any pictures out of Cameron or Holly Beach yet?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:52 PM
Is that a collapsed brick building immediately to the right of that house?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:52 PM
That damage is from the eyewall
Or a mesovortex eddy
2 homes down, only superficial damage
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM
@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) that’s wood framed with brick veneer
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM
Center and left home have no roofs and collapsed exterior walls
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Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM
Building next to it might have wooden walls.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM
I see
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM
Man, those mesovortices were no joke
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:55 PM
I can’t find anything out from the area right by the coast, I don’t think what we are going to get from Holly Beach/Cameron is gonna look pretty.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:58 PM
No chasers stay behind there for good reason. So will be awhile as I’m sure tons of tree debris on the roads to get there
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:58 PM
Also, let’s be honest, in many areas there might not even be roads.
Survivors will probably have to be airlifted out.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:59 PM
#Breaking: IOTA, La. (AP) -- Sheriff: Hurricane #Laura claims 2nd US victim, a 68-year-old man killed when a tree fell on his home in Acadia Parish. #lawx
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Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 27-Aug-20 02:00 PM
Anyone know about the surge?
How far inland is it?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:01 PM
We don’t know.
Though what is surprising is how the surge behaved, there was almost none, then suddenly up 10+ feet.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:09 PM
I saw some reports it was 9feet. It wasn't as bad as they said but of course still bad.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:17 PM
highest number i saw on a tide gauge was 9.08 feet at Calcasieu Pass before it went offline.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 02:20 PM
The shift east seemed to somewhat avert a much bigger catastrophe for Holly Beach, Cameron, etc in the way of surge and wind
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:24 PM
Louisiana State Police said they were responding to a chlorine leak at the plant operated by Biolab, which manufactures pool chlorine and cleaning products, The Associated Press reported.
yep, confirms which plant I thought it was
OOF 2
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:25 PM
Cameron was still a bullseye though.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 02:27 PM
Do we even have reports out of there yet
Even if surge wasn't as high as expected no doubt had violent winds in the northern eyewall
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:29 PM
Well looking at a buoy major gap between 11:24pm- 2:36am
That has a reading at 109mph gusts though
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:16 PM
So how is our Hurricane doing?
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:18 PM
Shes a TS now
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:22 PM
https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1299046699462262785 Got a bad feeling about Cameron, Creole, and Grand Chenier
The effects of #Laura’s storm surge in SW Louisiana is visible on satellite. The top image is Tuesday and the bottom image is now. Note the temporary regression of the coastline. This water will gradually retreat into the Gulf, but this shows how big of an impact surge can ha...
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Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:22 PM
What about that plant that is on fire?
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 03:23 PM
Haven't heard anything lately, but also been sidetracked with work. Last I saw was evac was still in effect.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 03:26 PM
There is not a lot of new news. Its a waiting game. I think that it is very easy to understate the damage from Hurricanes initially. The most hard hit areas are the hardest to get to. I know with Camile it took a few days until the full extent of the devestation was known. So don't count ourselves lucky yet. (edited)
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:32 PM
Looks like he used Landsat 8 for that image. Need to wait until a high resolution satellite one flies over to get a better picture
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 04:12 PM
Hurricane Laura made landfall at Cameron, La. First look at Cameron from a helicopter shows extensive damage with many homes completely missing or damaged.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 04:23 PM
Positive look to Cameron. Lot of structures appear to be intact
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 04:30 PM
I mean. A few look intact but not where somebody left them is the problem >.>
Sheriff office has quite a bit of water in it but that should buff out. Structure looks fine.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 04:33 PM
I guess I was mostly looking at the beginning of the footage. Those houses looked newer and build on metal stilts. They are probably anchored very well. There did appear to be a lot of empty plots in the later shots. Plus all the devestated oil stations.
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 04:36 PM
Any footage in there from Holly Beach. Couldn't quite tell. (edited)
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 04:49 PM
KPLC’s tower fell right into our studio exactly where we would have been at going live covering Hurricane Laura. I am without words. SO THANKFUL we evacuated and no one was in that building. 😢
Hank 8
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 04:53 PM
Crunchy. I heard the studio was damaged but yeah that's pretty bad. Glad they chose the smart move.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 05:00 PM
We probably won't here about a lot of damage for a few days like with Michael
HEAR
Damage from Hackberry
Cameron is completely underwater
Also lake Charles radar is declared totaled
So it will be down until they can fully replace it
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 05:43 PM
Eyewall basically a big mean EF2-3 tornado
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 05:43 PM
How long does it take to replace a radar? It's in an area that typically has quite a few tornados in late winter into early spring. Hopefully they replace it in 6 months or less
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 05:46 PM
I'd wager a good bit faster than Puerto Rico was able to
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 06:04 PM
Video of how devasting #Lauara's storm surge & wind were in Holly Beach, LA (west of Cameron). Some homes were obliterated and wiped clean from their foundations. Video Courtesy Brandon Clement with Live Storms Media. #Laura https://t.co/3TKfZznSq1
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 06:13 PM
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 06:32 PM
@eniels13 @rqhart @OUwx13 Initial inspection of KPOE #wsr88d indicates no damage. The communications outage is being worked.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 06:47 PM
Well I found some Satellite images of Cameron taken today.
Not exactly in Cameron but right next to it but 8.5% cloud cover and 12.3% cloud cover
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 07:26 PM
I know it's early but any word on how long KLCH will be down for? I'm no radar expert but on a few views the damage to the equipment itself seems fixable within a reasonable timeframe considering first and foremost the tower appear damaged other than the dome at the top. (edited)
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 27-Aug-20 07:34 PM
Well considering the radar dish itself is pretty much totaled I think it'll be quite some time before it's back
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 07:44 PM
Do they have WSR-88D parts readily available other than the dome (edited)
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Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 07:49 PM
I'd hope so
But we're talking "Government Agency 2020" and that's a big friggen maybe all over.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 08:22 PM
Puerto Rico took 9 months to replace there’s after Maria. Expect it to be quicker than that with less transportation and less of a jungle to get to it.
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-Aug-20 09:05 PM
Anybody know the status on that big chemical fire? We had to take 210 west to get out of lake Charles cuz of it and last I heard there was a shelter in place because the smoke was because of chlorine
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-Aug-20 09:39 PM
Thanks. Was wondering and I have been driving all day so I didn’t get a chance to follow up and make sure everything was ok
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:57 PM
I remember the humorous statement by NWS San Juan regarding their radar loss. (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 10:39 PM
Tropical depression Laura
Last advisory by the nhc. WPC taking over
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:23 PM
for now
i really hate to have to put it like that, but I could see the NHC taking over again once it gets to the atlantic
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 11:24 PM
Once it gets to the Atlantic it is going OTS anyways.
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:24 PM
true
and the NHC will be busy with whatever's brewing down in the tropics by then anyway
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:25 PM
It'll be such a 2020 thing for Laura to attain subtropical characteristics and last until British Columbia
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:25 PM
wrong side of Canada
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM
LOL
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM
And then become a major windstorm in Northern Europe troll
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM
BC is west coast. Nova Scotia/Newfoundland is east coast.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM
This just tells you I'm not good with Canadian provinces/states
Yao
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:27 PM
I spent long enough near the border I had to learn them 😆
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:27 PM
I think I meant to say Nova Scotia
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:27 PM
beyond just "ontario is where I can drink at 19"
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 11:37 PM
@Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) From that video I estimate Holly Beach got Cat 3 winds (roof material peeling off, not much "roof clean off") and most destroyed homes were the result of surge. This was the "clean" side, the "dirty" side of the landfall (Cameron and townships east of) likely looks even uglier. (edited)
@Garrett (Hillsdale MI) Looks like mainly surge damage, that green roof looks like it was "slid off" rather than blown off by winds.
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Christine Veerkamp (GER) 28-Aug-20 12:20 AM
bring they employes in useless danger ... TWC https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1298957408061001728
WATCH: Jaw-dropping footage from our live crews last night as #Laura made landfall. https://t.co/psxgyM18tl
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i was thinking the whole time watching this ... i wonder when stuff will go fly
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 28-Aug-20 12:27 AM
A broadcast tower over 300 feet tall was toppled by the winds from Hurricane Laura as the Category 4 storm made landfall in southwest Louisiana during the early morning hours of Thursday, Aug. 26.
Includes some photos from where they would've been covering this had they not left.
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Christine Veerkamp (GER) 28-Aug-20 12:39 AM
Harvey, Michael, Laura. The Gulf of Mexico has seen three jaw-dropping eyes over the last four years. All peaking at landfall. https://t.co/OnNaGmO55z
thats so storm candy
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 12:59 AM
Laura before nightfall, if only it was a day landfall
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:36 AM
~14 foot surge found here
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 28-Aug-20 10:43 AM
That's a lot closer to the forecast peak surge, nearly perfect forecast
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Aug-20 01:58 PM
The NHC did about as good a job as you could with this, all things considered. Laura was very tough to forecast. (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 02:27 PM
The models did them no favors
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 28-Aug-20 03:10 PM
Gotta give the NHC props for only being 1km off tho. She was messy but they did well
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Max (Saint John, NB) 28-Aug-20 03:27 PM
https://twitter.com/nwslakecharles/status/1299427338241757184?s=21 semi related, people are misusing generators and dying from carbon monoxide poisoning in the area
IMPORTANT SAFETY TIP Unfortunately, there have already been 9 reported fatalities related to Carbon Monoxide poisoning, most likely related to people using generators indoors. If you choose to use a generator, make sure to keep it outside!
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 28-Aug-20 05:04 PM
Nine?? Yeesh
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 28-Aug-20 05:18 PM
I just assumed it was better known not to use indoors...
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 06:25 PM
I mean that happens every hurricane season in FL. People aren’t too bright
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Max (Saint John, NB) 28-Aug-20 06:37 PM
@StephanieAbrams The CBS local station in Lake Charles was totally destroyed. Damage shows it was hit by at least an EF3 Tornado. Steel beams twisted. and across the street homes left untouched!
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Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 06:57 PM
I want some
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 28-Aug-20 07:16 PM
Craziest pic out of it
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beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 07:21 PM
None of the photo's from lake charles are crazy or surprising except the NWS radar being destroyed. Metal bends after it's forced into a certain direction long enough.
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 28-Aug-20 07:22 PM
True. Nothing has caught my eye
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beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 07:25 PM
The broadcast tower i'm a little surprised at but not really. You sit that close to salt water shits going to rot away and weaken. Plus that big of an object becomes a kite with that much surface area.
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Max (Saint John, NB) 28-Aug-20 07:27 PM
Prob one of the scariest advisories ive seen in a long time
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Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 28-Aug-20 08:27 PM
Holy shit look at her go lmao (edited)
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 28-Aug-20 08:41 PM
New aerial imagery reveals flooding from Hurricane Laura. This just east of Cameron, LA. https://t.co/AzXaEC4q1w
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 28-Aug-20 08:42 PM
It's very lucky that the worst of the surge hit only fairly unpopulated areas
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beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 08:53 PM
There was very little surge actually.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 09:14 PM
14 foot surge was the highest observed that has been found
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 09:46 PM
The surge was ~10ft near Cameron and ~14ft near Grand Chenier
We'll get high water mark surveys soon to determine values inbetween and around there
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:09 PM
New aerial imagery reveals flooding from Hurricane Laura. This just east of Cameron, LA. https://t.co/AzXaEC4q1w
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Another from Grand Chenier where some homes look completely destroyed. https://t.co/wJ0zq3C3zq
Houses are just... gone.
In those two tweets
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 28-Aug-20 10:11 PM
https://twitter.com/ulmwxr/status/1299153532734431234?s=19 17.1 ft surge in Grand Chenier as well, but it may have been 2 feet less than that based on where the x axis starts?
Thanks to my colleague Phil for pointing this out to me & @backinblack_wx for looking at surge info all day, we did come across the Corp gage on the Mermentau River at Grand Chenieer. #Laura @NHC_Atlantic @NWSLakeCharles https://t.co/T9vOK5E0ag
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Also, that surge was slowly rising and then BOOM! Here's about 12 extra feet of water
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:13 PM
That’s the 14 foot surge I was talking about above.
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 28-Aug-20 10:13 PM
Why does it look like 17.1 or 15.1 surge?
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:14 PM
17.1 is just the height of the water. If the normal height is let’s say 2.1 feet, then surge is classified as water that is above normal levels
Looks to me the “normal” level at the time of the increase is around ~ 3 feet although the normal level fluctuates with tides. (edited)
So 17 - 3 = 14
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 28-Aug-20 10:18 PM
Got it, thanks for the explanation!
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 10:21 PM
I believe Eric Blake himself cited that as evidence for 14 foot surge so it's well confirmed
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beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 11:03 PM
@William Spencer (Richmond, VA) how did you know i was down there?
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William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 28-Aug-20 11:04 PM
SN dot. Randomly clicked on it in Port Arthur
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beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 11:09 PM
Ah. Somebody said one of my videos was seen somewhere and i was checking lol i only turned it on so a local met could see where i was.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 29-Aug-20 03:48 AM
Laura managing to regenerate into a weak TS over water would be peak 2020
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Max (Saint John, NB) 29-Aug-20 11:35 AM
Dorian did some fun things. Strengthened to category 2 over ice cold waters (just off nova scotia coast) so it probably could happen
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Aug-20 11:38 AM
Wasn't that due to mostly baroclinic intensification?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Aug-20 11:46 AM
It will be with a baroclinic system when it exits the coast, so I can see a subtropical system possibly forming from it.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 29-Aug-20 01:51 PM
US death toll stands at 11
Not counting the generator related deaths
We're very lucky it made landfall in a sparsely populated area
Just 20 miles west it would've been where Rita made landfall and that had 10 times the amount of US deaths
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Aug-20 02:35 PM
Hurricane Laura's death toll is now at 16 in the U.S., plus over 30 in the Caribbean. https://t.co/6S4JUHpt21
Looks to be 16 now in the US. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Aug-20 05:08 PM
This’ll be retired for sure, for all the massive wind and surge related damage in the US as well as all the deaths from flooding in Hispaniola.
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Aug-20 01:06 PM
Total fatalities at 53 now (US and Caribbean). Still numerous missing people reported along the Louisiana coast (edited)
Grand Chenier also looks like a complete loss. Satellite pictures from their look apocalyptic
I don’t see how anyone survived if they stayed there
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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 30-Aug-20 01:27 PM
Even though Laura made landfall specifically in a “sparsely populated area” the lack of any weakening until she passed Lake Charles really highlights a solid sized city getting utterly trashed. I was very surprised at the amount of damage we saw driving around the city before we left. I hope people don’t just kind of dismiss this as not a big deal cuz it didn’t hit Houston.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 30-Aug-20 02:36 PM
Unfortunately, there already has been a lot of that.
"It didn't hit NOLA or Houston so it's not a big deal"
"The surge wasn't THAT bad"
"It wasn't as bad as they said it would be"
"blahblahblah"
I say if you were actually listening to the mets and NHC and not sensationalist media and Twitter doomer tabloids then yes, it was every bit as impactful as they said it would be. (edited)
When someone goes "It landfalled in a sparsely populated area" I go "what part of 'impacts will extend far from the center' do you not understand?"
When I saw where Grand Chenier was and where the dirty side of the eyewall was, I knew deep down it would not look good in the slightest.
Sorry if I am rambling, I can't stand it when someone goes "lol it wasn't that bad" just because the dirty side of the eyewall didn't come over their house.
It gets even better when they follow it up with "I won't be evacuating or taking action next time".
And it’s like okay, see you on the next Darwin Awards.
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-Aug-20 03:00 PM
We had this weather station set up on the bridge over Choupique Bayou along 27 N of Hackberry. It was not there yesterday evening when we went back to get it. No, it did not fall in or get knocked off. Someone took it. This is unfortunate & does nothing but hurt the science....
AngryTom
AngryTom 10
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-Aug-20 03:00 PM
cringywhenedouardformed
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Aug-20 03:03 PM
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 30-Aug-20 03:46 PM
Being on the West side of Galveston bay, we had everything packed for a last minute storm turn. I can't blame the people who evacuated, but for those who didn't, especially the ones in the direct cone, they got lucky this time. For instance, if Galveston got hit by a 15 ft wave, say goodbye to everything on the island.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 12:21 PM
So apparently the shirtless Florida guy who goes to hurricanes with the big American flag and blasts Slayer was back for Laura
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 12:30 PM
Wait, thats an actual person, not just some dude who did it once? wow
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 31-Aug-20 12:31 PM
He is dedicated
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 12:44 PM
o7
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 12:44 PM
Apparently lol
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 12:46 PM
Its probably a very good workout, holding that flag. I admire his spirit. No shame, not there for science, or to help with warnings. Just there to be out in and appreciate the power of nature.
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 12:46 PM
If nobody actually saw him during the storm, did he really go down there?
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 31-Aug-20 12:52 PM
If the tree fell in a forest and nobody was around, did it make noise?
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 12:54 PM
If the tree fell in a forest and nobody was around, did it make noise?
@Davis (Charlotte, NC) My point exactly
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Davis (Charlotte, NC) 31-Aug-20 12:57 PM
depends on how much we trust him/whoever said he went, if he did go thats cool, sad we didnt get any video, if he didnt so what? plenty more storms coming unfortunatley
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 12:58 PM
He traveled to Louisiana to confront Hurricane Laura.
East 4
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Aug-20 01:41 PM
SLAYERR
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 31-Aug-20 01:45 PM
i gotta appreciate his dedication
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 31-Aug-20 02:26 PM
The Cameron, LA cam box has been recovered! #cam8 I’ll have the full story soon. Thanks to all who shared the info about it. 👍🏼 I’ll have the data from the pressure sensor ASAP. Stay tuned, it could be historic!
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 02:27 PM
Long live #Cam8
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 31-Aug-20 03:03 PM
#WindyPalmsProject results: Wind sensor deployment height 15 feet near Holly Beach, Louisiana. MAX wind gust of 154 mph at 12:33. Lowest barometric pressure of 945mb at 12:36am. Watch the intense deployment during #HurricaneLaura on the new @NatGeoChannel TV series #Category6...
ohshit 6
OOF 4
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 31-Aug-20 03:11 PM
Considering it was in the western eyewall, a gust of 154 is pretty impressive
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 04:11 PM
west obs + 2*storm motion = east obs estimate. so if Laura was going N at 10mph, east gust estimate would be ~174mph (edited)
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 31-Aug-20 04:11 PM
found out in the Gulf current Yao
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 04:13 PM
174mph gust-15% = estimated 1 minute winds, or 147mph, which is close to what hunters found
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 31-Aug-20 04:28 PM
So confident this holds as a cat4 in off season review?
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 04:31 PM
Landfall movement was N @ 15 mph
Going off Royce's estimate, a derived gust maximum of 154 mph indicates a sustained wind of ~131 mph
IF true, this suggests wind gusts approaching 184 mph in the eastern eyewall (edited)
Then the sustained wind in that quadrant would be ~156 mph, which is slightly above the NHC advisory at landfall, which was 150mph/938mb (edited)
Feel free to correct on this Yao
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 04:44 PM
Considering cat 5 now starts at 157 on the SSHS, watch them go with that and finalize it at 156 troll
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 04:46 PM
Could go with 135kts with post-analysis
Or surprise us all with 140kts troll
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:38 PM
@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) If I recall correctly, the last 30 minutes towards landfall was filled with suspect SFMRs and missing data (edited)
The max FL wind 30-70 minutes before landfall was 148-150kts
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 31-Aug-20 06:39 PM
Don't forget all the dropsondes that failed before surface level.
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:40 PM
Yeah, there was one dropsonde that fail just before reaching 950mb
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Aug-20 06:41 PM
Max FL wind was 148 knots. Probably would like to see that closer to 155 knots if they’ll upgrade this to a cat. 5 post-season
I just don’t see the case for this being upgraded to 160mph. I can totally see 155 but not 160
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:43 PM
Fair case for 135kts, but I agree, CAT5 is a little far-fetched, considering FL-SFMR data
Even so, this is still the strongest hurricane to strike that area since 1856
this 5
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Aug-20 06:46 PM
Upgrade or no upgrade, this storm caused loss of life and changed some coastal towns forever
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:48 PM
Especially Creole and Grand Chenier
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Lee S (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 06:48 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:48 PM
I kinda wonder how many come back, many areas wiped out 3 times in 15 years (Rita and Ike)
Can imagine insurance rates won't be fun
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:49 PM
@Lee S (Wichita, KS) Seems like the radar did fail just before entering the inner eyewall
Gusts continued to accelerate after it's failure
Max gust found next to or within city limits was ~144 mph (excluding the 154 mph measurement at Holly Beach)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 08:48 PM
insurance rates are heavily subsidized by taxpayer money, the rich people move back only to be destroyed again, and collect again. and the poor are gone forever. its gentrification in fast-forward
there was a house in S alabama that had been damage by storms somethign on the order of 15 times in the last 20 years, and collected every time. was a near million dollar home, and the federal govenrment had paid out somethign like 7x its total value over the course of the last 20 years
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 31-Aug-20 09:00 PM
!!!
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 09:05 PM
flood / hurricane insurance actually encourages people to have their homes destroyed and to build in high risk areas.
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Lee S (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 09:30 PM
The worst part is if you tell people they can’t rebuild on a specific area they throw a hissy fit about the government taking away their property.
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 10:05 PM
@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) This guy is MY MAN!!! Bro, this guy knows was up!!! 🤟 🤟 🤟
He traveled to Louisiana to confront Hurricane Laura.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 10:11 PM
Lol yeah he's awesome, very glad to see he's still at it
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 10:11 PM
@Jonathan DeGraw (IN) What do you say to doing this next time...
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 12:49 AM
My philosophy on people building on the coast and/or at/below sea level is there's a reason the Native Americans (including my Cherokee ancestors) stayed inland and mainly went to the coast to hunt/fish/etc. They just might have known a thing or two
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:07 AM
They also didn’t have the building techniques to withstand even a strong squall line.
Nor did they have the economic drive to build coastal (need to establish ports, persistent industry, etc).
Point is, they were from a different time.
My philosophy is that if you live somewhere you accept the risks of living there. You live on the coasts you accept the risks of hurricanes or coastal storms, live in the Midwest you accept the risks of derechos, live in the plains you accept the risks of tornadoes and hail.
Live in California you accept the risk of wildfires.
So don’t act surprised if something happens. In other words read the fine print before signing.
Though that said insurance companies are notoriously scummy.
They are official scams for the most part.
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:19 AM
My point was building at or below sea level isn't exactly the smartest thing. Besides, we're well past the time where ports absolutely have to be on the coast. My hometown has a port 1,000 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi. And it's not even the most inland (or oldest inland) port in the US.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:21 AM
Yes. I know, I live close to the Great Lakes. But you’ll have a hard time squeezing a massive oil tanker or container ship up the Mississippi or St. Lawrence, the Mississippi has a lot of low bridges and the St. Lawrence can only support up to medium sized ocean going vessels.
Doing it would require the locks and canals to be completely redone.
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:23 AM
Much of that switchover is on the Mississippi is done in Baton Rouge anymore. Again, not near the actual coast, but ocean-going vessels can easily make it there. (edited)
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:25 AM
Ocean vessels up to 700 ft can get into the Great Lakes but with the current lock system not anything larger than that. If we want to get in modern oil tankers or larger container ships the locks and canals would have to be expanded, a project that has been proposed but keeps getting thrown out. (edited)
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:27 AM
I forget how far they go up the Atchafalaya River but there are no port facilities near the coast on that river. The I-10 bridge across there is as tall as the one in Baton Rouge.
I believe our submarine bases for the Atlantic fleet are actually a decent distance inland as well. Although from a fleet standpoint, they do have flexibility in moving ships around as needed to avoid storms
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:29 AM
Though that said there has been a push for <740 foot container ship access on the St. Lawrence/Great Lakes system recently, with Chicago, Duluth, Milwaukee, and Cleveland being proposed container ports. Maybe it will go somewhere. (edited)
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:31 AM
Chicago and Duluth make a ton of sense in particular. Both already have a huge intermodal presence and Chicago in particular would be best positioned to ramp up more intermodal capacity.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:34 AM
Though the biggest obstacle for expanded inland waterways is that you’re gonna have to get it past the people who complain about Asian Carp (they are still salty over the St. Lawrence seaway being built). (edited)
And also convince firms that it’s worth it.
And get money to build infrastructure.
Lots of things really.
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 01-Sep-20 03:11 AM
Louisiana officials now say 15 people have died in connection to #Hurricane #Laura. The latest case reported was a 49-year-old man who died from blunt force trauma while trying to cut down a tree in Rapides Parish. The ages of the victims range from 14-84. #lawx
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 01-Sep-20 11:27 AM
My point was building at or below sea level isn't exactly the smartest thing. Besides, we're well past the time where ports absolutely have to be on the coast. My hometown has a port 1,000 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi. And it's not even the most inland (or oldest inland) port in the US.
@Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) That would be Duluth MN, 3 hours from where I grew up.
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-Sep-20 11:39 AM
I like Duluth. Not in the winter time. And we are going OT.
Good bye Laura room.
🇫 5
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 01-Sep-20 05:42 PM
Another before and after of #HurricaneLaura #HurricaneLaura2020 using Landsat-8 false color imagery. Better view of the flooding.
Landsat 8 Images of the flooding.
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