Stormtrack - hurricane-laura-2020

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 21-Aug-20 01:55 PM

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 02:02 PM

Quite an outlook

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 21-Aug-20 02:12 PM

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1296868815448559621?s=20

Stormchasernick (@stormchasernick)

https://t.co/elqUrKaAkp

5

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Aug-20 02:15 PM

VWS ahead of Laura- nearly nonexistant

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 02:18 PM

This thing could be a monster

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 02:27 PM

Got a range from GFS to HWRF, "briefly strengthening to TS on the coast", vs "Cat 5 monster running buck wild through the gulf" (edited)

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 21-Aug-20 02:30 PM

What are the chances Laura gets beat up by Cubas mountains?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 21-Aug-20 02:52 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1296876210056761349

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

@MikeFischerWx @AndyHazelton Yeah and I’d argue we don’t want another reformation back east at 16.5N/60W like visible is suggesting, as that would help to vertically align the low & mid level vortex. Have to say the trends on visible today are concerning.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 21-Aug-20 02:56 PM

Could this become a major?

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:00 PM

Peak wind intensity on this run 167 kts

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Aug-20 03:03 PM

Think you mean ~167 mph, which is 145kts (edited)

Max (Saint John, NB) 21-Aug-20 03:07 PM

Murdercane

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:10 PM

@Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) nah, I think I mean knots

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 21-Aug-20 03:22 PM

@Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) That looks like it's at 850mb, which is above the ground- Maximum 10m wind on this run is 133kt

Still very concerning

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:23 PM

Oh am I completely stupid and didn't realize max sustained windspeed was 10 AGL, and not the storm in general?

I may be

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 21-Aug-20 03:24 PM

Maximum sustained windspeed is usually at 10m iirc, because it's near the surface

1

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 21-Aug-20 03:25 PM

Nearly 170kts at ~850mb

Yeesh......

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 21-Aug-20 03:26 PM

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 03:29 PM

133kts puts it at a high end Cat 4

beard (fort worth) 21-Aug-20 05:07 PM

I see y'all found the hype models.

4

@Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) if laura can survive cuba it can reform into a hurricane pretty quick. But it needs to be at least a hurricane first for that to happen. If it's still a cluster f of storms it won't make it.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 21-Aug-20 05:15 PM

Conditions ahead are really good

beard (fort worth) 21-Aug-20 05:20 PM

For now. Still 4 days out.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 21-Aug-20 05:22 PM

https://twitter.com/KalTellefsenWX/status/1296919164570009601

Kal Tellefsen (@KalTellefsenWX)

#Laura’s center relocated to the south this morning. If it relocates again, we could get the LLC and MLC coupled, and a track that keeps it to the north of the Greater Antilles. This will help the storm strengthen. https://t.co/AUOmWkV6PD

Not good

beard (fort worth) 21-Aug-20 05:40 PM

https://tenor.com/view/facepalm-really-stressed-mad-angry-gif-16109475

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 21-Aug-20 08:41 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 09:08 AM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297157625419898881

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

The "center" of #Laura appears to be near the NE tip of Puerto Rico, with the pronounced mid-level center SW of St. Croix to its south. However, west winds are being observed near the latitude of this MLC, suggesting it may be trying to form a surface circulation of its own. ...

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 09:46 AM

Is recon in there now? Would be nice to see if the blob S of PR is the dominant LLC. If it is, that could mean big changes to the forecast. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 09:49 AM

I’m not sure what happened to the recon mission this morning for Laura

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 09:49 AM

Gotcha. I thought they'd be in there.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 09:49 AM

Yeah I did too

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 10:15 AM

Theres quite a bit of lightning near that southern circulation.

Could mean things.

Also north side gusted out.

Appears that the northern area is weakening while the southern one is intensifying.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 10:45 AM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:48 AM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 11:03 AM

Could see TS Watches for the Florida Keys later today. Of course, that's dependant on where they find the true center to be.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 11:05 AM

here's the 11am cone

85 peak expected currently

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-Aug-20 11:13 AM

Appears its going to roll over the land mostly, good thing for the gulf coast.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 11:15 AM

Looks like that's not going to affect it much.

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 11:37 AM

(Flips coin)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 11:38 AM

LOL Just a bit of a difference there.

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 11:38 AM

Meh what's a few hundred miles to a cat 1 storm lol

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 12:00 PM

Straight up nightmare scenario.

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME... Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds in Tropical Storm Laura have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly in a band to the south of Vieques and eastern Puerto Rico. SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 67.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 12:11 PM

Definitely does look like the swirl south of PR is going to be the dominant center, looking off velocities.

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 12:13 PM

As long as part of her main circulation stays over water while she moves over Cuba she'll be able to survive.

1

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 12:16 PM

Sure would be nice to have a recon flight down in that area to get some definitive answer.

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 12:17 PM

They'll most likely launch one later today.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Aug-20 12:21 PM

Looking at radar, it seems like the circulation (whether it's a mid level circulation or the llc) to the south of Puerto Rico is moving to the NW.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 12:21 PM

I believe it is the southern one becoming dominant considering the hot towers there and also the fact the north side gusted out.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Aug-20 12:23 PM

If Laura keeps moving at the on heading based on radar, it should make landfall on Puerto Rico today.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 12:29 PM

Rapidly expanding CDO coming from a group of hot towers lit full of lightning near the new center, the new center isn't only becoming dominant but also seems to be RI-ing

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 01:18 PM

Good eye @Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx)...the MLC or whatever it is is clearly moving WNW, which would bring it across PR this afternoon and could potentially miss Hispaniola to the north.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 01:32 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 01:38 PM

Looks to be a temporary thing

Well Levi just posted about that image

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 01:40 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297225552995201025

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Radar suggests that #Laura's mid-level center is drilling down to the surface just off the southern Puerto Rico coastline. Very strong vortical updraft is evident. The new circulation is small and may be disrupted passing over PR's mountains. Strong winds indicated by radar.

5

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 01:52 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1297229090882232320?s=20

NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan)

#Laura Recent wind observations | Observaciones recientes de vientos:

Guayama: 58 mph (sustained|sostenidos)/67 mph (gust|ráfaga) (1:27 PM AST) #prwx #usviwx

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:06 PM

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:12 PM

Sickening. Right over my house as a 150 mph cat 4.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:13 PM

Justin, consider your evac plan now.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:14 PM

We have our plan made thank god. Most people down here do. We prep at the beginning of each season. Just need to stock up on more water and canned goods. We won't evac unless it's Cat 3 or higher at landfall.

If we do evacuate we're going to Poplarville, MS. depending on track.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:15 PM

Seems like a good time to vacation in Missoula.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:15 PM

I wish, it's so nice up there.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:16 PM

Then again, it would be a great chance to get great footage, and get that cash.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:16 PM

From experience, hurricane footage at night is boring as hell.

unless you're literally on the coast and lit up to see surge coming in.

Where I live, we're 3ft below sea level, my lot is at sea level.

They're closing floodgates today and tomorrow.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:18 PM

I take it the engineering has been improved in the last 15 years.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:18 PM

Down here in Terrebonne parish, absolutely

In new orleans, it's still a clusterfuck

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:19 PM

Go to NOLA with a Handicam. Wait for clusterfuck. Film rowboats full of nursing home patients. $$$$$$$$$

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:19 PM

I had enough of that during Katrina...

This was construction of out newest flood control structure. It's fully functional now.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:20 PM

I was on a deployment team for that mall that used to be down there, was going to go, until we saw it was both underwater and on fire, and we didn't go.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:20 PM

Yeah that was the oakwood mall on the west bank. Its pretty nice now.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:22 PM

So, this is going to be interesting, what with the twin hurricanes.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:23 PM

How the floodgate works

This is our whole flood gate and levee system, I live where the red dot is. (edited)

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:24 PM

The Morganza System. I remember that thing. Massive wall leading into the Achafalaya basin?

Big doors, has train tracks on top?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:25 PM

The Morganza is north of the image, this project is called "Morganza to the Gulf".

It's a coastal thing

Basically from the bottom of the morganza spillway

The way that works is when they open the morganza, it floods all the land south of it, where the Mississippi historically wants to go.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:25 PM

Where the diversion of the MS River happens?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:25 PM

Yep

without the Old River Control Structure, the River would re-route west through Morgan City.

It's artificially kept through New Orleans.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:26 PM

Weird.

Figure it would just be easier and better to let it do what it's going to do.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:27 PM

See, without the ORCS it would follow the atchafalaya

If that happened it would kill the economy

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:28 PM

So odd.

I just wonder if the total economic loss, which would eventually recover, is worth more than the cost of keeping all that infrastructure going.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:28 PM

Now, if they open the Morganza, it floods the Morganza Spillway. People who live there int he immediate area have to sign wavers that they can't sue the govt. for losing their property.

But it saves "more valuable" big cities.

You can thank the ORCS and routing of the mississippi for the land loss along the coast too.

But New Orleans economy and the shipping docks are more valuable apparently.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:30 PM

Al Gore told me that was Exxon's fault.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:30 PM

Yeahhhh ok.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:31 PM

Man, why did I move to a place that doesn't see hurricanes?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:32 PM

They're exciting til they hit, then it's just a shit ton of rain and wind

The lead up is exciting i should say. The preparation.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM

I've done coastals before in VA Beach. It's all exciting. I enjoy the fact that it's gone, and I'm still alive, when it's over.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM

I can appreciate that.

It floods too much down here for it to continue to be exciting

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM

Wouldn't be 2020 without another New Orleans flood

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM

Shit, my street floods everytime there's a bad thunderstorm

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:33 PM

The extended poverty-camping afterward and cooking cans of Chef Boyardee with a road flare? That's icing on the cake.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:34 PM

Haha, I have gas stove and water heater, most of the time I'm still good to cook and shower,

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:35 PM

We'll have to see how the improved system does if Laura landfills west and NO gets the brunt of the eastern side

Surprised

hasn't started calling this the double Covidcane dilemma

Cause you know, clicks and ratings

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:36 PM

They're showing long form programming.

I've given up on them

even when they're live they're just saying bullshit, nothing like it used to be.

It feels like they're not even interested in the weather.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:36 PM

What a waste of what once was a great platform

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:36 PM

Agreed

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:37 PM

I do miss them, indeed.

Even in 2015/2016, they were still alright-ish.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:37 PM

Storm Stories started their downfall. It opened the door to all the bullshit

Eventually they fired or retired all the good ones

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM

Storm Stories revealed the seething sexual tension between Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams, which I found hilarious.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM

Lmao.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM

At least it was still about storms.

Now it's what? Canadians towing things? Panning for gold?

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:38 PM

That's pretty much the majority of the downfall. All the great TV scientists and mets they had all went away

Its now a discount discovery channel

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:39 PM

In the old days, they would be wall to wall with every hurricane expert in house.

2

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Aug-20 02:39 PM

Ahhh the good old days when they would actually cover every severe weather day

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:39 PM

I can't blame them. At a certain point, Dr. Forbes has to enjoy retirement and stop working.

Weathernation has been better lately anyway.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 02:41 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1297237974518837249?s=19

NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan)

#Laura Recent wind observations | Observaciones recientes de vientos:

SALINAS: 75 mph (sustained|sostenidos)/75 mph (gust|ráfaga) (2:09 PM AST) #prwx #usviwx

https://twitter.com/nwssanjuan/status/1297241063623503872?s=21 Then they changed it

NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan)

#Laura Recent wind observations | Observaciones recientes de vientos:

SALINAS: 75 mph (75 mph (gust|ráfaga)) (2:09 PM AST) #prwx #usviwx

But still

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:46 PM

CRANK IT, let's GO

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 02:47 PM

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 02:48 PM

https://tenor.com/view/sarah-g-got-the-look-woman-pretty-gif-17576974

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 02:51 PM

Storm Stories revealed the seething sexual tension between Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams, which I found hilarious.

@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ it’s still seething on AMHQ, too.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:52 PM

Bro HWRF stop

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:53 PM

I'm serious, the rest of cable TV is a cesspool, and I watch WN as it is, but if there was a way to just pay for and get TWC, I would.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Aug-20 02:54 PM

HWRF pretty much nailed Laura's position and structure in the 12z run today...

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:55 PM

MARCO's path completely shifted to LA this run

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 02:55 PM

I'm serious, the rest of cable TV is a cesspool, and I watch WN as it is, but if there was a way to just pay for and get TWC, I would.

@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ I watch old TWC blocks on YouTube and it makes me miss the way it was. It was informative, relatable and didn’t have the extra stuff that it has today. I’ll watch it this week, sadly.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 02:56 PM

You think Marcos path forecast gonna suck. Laura is gonna be brutal. Steering currents won't be known in the gulf until Marco leaves. 24 hours from landfall we could still have a huge cone

It's trying to make a forecast, off of another forecast

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 02:57 PM

I can see how this will present a challenge, at the very least.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:02 PM

Can't wait to see how New Orleans handles evacuations. Their mayor is an idiot.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:02 PM

18z ships RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 45.9% 30.2% 19.5% 13.1% 23.8% 27.9% 42.3%

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:03 PM

When has their mayor not been an idiot?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:03 PM

Looks like a two phase RI. One before the Dominican. A second possible after it gets back over water

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:03 PM

Mayor Marc Morial in the 90s was the GOAT

He was one of the best, him and his dad.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM

Wasnt he corrupt AF, but the people loved him? (edited)

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM

No, not him

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM

Which one was Mayor Chocolate City? Was that, what was his name? Negan?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM

That was Ray Nagin

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:04 PM

Oh yeah ray nagin, that guy

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:06 PM

Definitely. That guy was a moron. Blame GWB and FEMA for not knowing about a parking lot full of local school buses that could have been used for evac.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:11 PM

The levee system in New Orleans is a whole lot better, their pumping stations are another story. Most of them end up failing or losing power.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:11 PM

I would guess that the levees had to be updated by the ACE/Military/FedGov, and the pumping stations are probably NOLA DPW?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:12 PM

Yeah, they're operated by the sewage and water board, which is a corrupt joke as well

There are 148 pumps powered by 5 turbines. They pump 1 inch of rain for the first hour, and .5 inch each hour after that

Last time we had a bad rain storm, 3 of the 5 turbines failed, 16 of the pumps failed. It was horrible.

2

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:22 PM

Just got a call from Entergy that the power will be out longer than usual due to the pandemic.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:36 PM

We're sorry for crappy service, in advance. We have an excuse this time!

Your power bill for August is still $197.34, and is due before or on September 1st, to avoid shutoff.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:37 PM

My light bill is usually around $400-$500 a month, they can kiss my ass.

*In the summertime

2

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:37 PM

WHY?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:37 PM

That's just how entergy is

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM

Halfgrand for electricity is brutal.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM

Well if you want air conditioning, that's what you get lol

And they know it

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM

Brrreeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhhh

What's the efficiency rating on what you're running?!

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Aug-20 03:39 PM

I run an older window AC unit in my apartment, and my electric bill is still only ~$125 a month.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:39 PM

Jacob, as a former Virginian, you cannot fathom the humidity and heat of the southeast in the summer. LA has to be even worse.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:39 PM

I believe 17 or 18

I also have window units in addition to the central air

It doesn't have enough power to cool down 100+ degree, 100% humidity days

Learn to live with it

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM

I have supplanted my central air (which doesn't work at all) with a window unit and two of those rollaway AC units that has the window hose. I think my power bill is around $200/month in the summer.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM

The coolest I can get my house in the summer without window units is 74 during the day.

1

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM

That is GROACE.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:40 PM

With blackout curtains and insulation

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:41 PM

You in a house or an apartment?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:41 PM

House

Brick ranch style, well kept

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:41 PM

You own?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:42 PM

Hell no. We're building on land up north. (By north I mean north of Lake Pontchartrain, in Louisiana)

I would never buy anything down here.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:44 PM

In your next place, look into these. They can probably save you a bunch on the electric bill. Mitsubishi Mr. Slim zoned climate systems. https://www.mitsubishicomfort.com/products

Ducted, Ductless and Hybrid Mini-Split Systems | Mitsubishi Electric

Explore our variety of zoned comfort ducted, ductless or hybrid mini-split systems for individual control over one room or your entire home.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:45 PM

Now that is cool.

Pun intended

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:46 PM

Those Mitsubishi systems are what's keeping them in business (it sure isn't the cars). Those things are ridiculously efficient, and have massive cooling capacities.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 03:47 PM

Laura is taking on the buzzsaw look today

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:47 PM

I mean, it's 73 upstairs in my place right now, and I consider that unlivable.

Dude, if you wanted that old-school TWC hurricane coverage feel, turn on WeatherNation right now.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 03:51 PM

I got it at 69 right now, like I said, thank god for window units.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 03:55 PM

69 is a fine temperature

3

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 03:56 PM

I like cold-boxing the bedroom at night, and getting it down to 62 or so.

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 03:56 PM

If I have full control, I agree Dean, I enjoy sleeping with a cold room and a heavy cover

Taking it down to 62 gives more excuse to cuddle too lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 04:04 PM

Laura is going bonkers right now. That burst is huge

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 04:05 PM

I would think this is the best visible presentation of Laura I've seen yet

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 04:05 PM

Satcon has this at 50 kts already. Could be more

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 04:06 PM

SATCON could align with previous sfc. station obvs.- which indicates 50-55kt

Highest gust recorded was 65kt

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 04:06 PM

There's no eye on vissat, or on the Baron composite presentation yet, though?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 04:18 PM

There is a clear vortex center, but no eye clearance

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 05:54 PM

Lets lift @Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) up in prayer as LA is about to get fuuuuuuucked up.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 05:54 PM

Lol, let's see

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 05:54 PM

Marco will be a hurrican tomorrow. NHC just posted both are coming for you.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 05:56 PM

while that may be true, there are still a lot of variables still in play

beard (fort worth) 22-Aug-20 06:19 PM

Not really. Marco is going around mexico instead of over it. Which gives it the ability to gain enough strength that laura can't effect it. Laura will be a little over a day behind marco. By the time she reaches the gulf coast marco will be dying in texas.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 06:39 PM

Apparently, WN thinks that the dual hurricanes are a reason to buy the entire FlexSeal family.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 06:39 PM

I can't blame them, that shit is legit.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 06:41 PM

I once painted an entire mini-pickup with black FlexSeal spray. It did great.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 22-Aug-20 06:44 PM

https://tenor.com/view/flex-tape-gif-10921536

Max (Saint John, NB) 22-Aug-20 06:50 PM

flex seal is a meme but its legit a really really good product

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:46 PM

Yikes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:55 PM

Laura currently still has split-center-disorder.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 08:57 PM

one of the many variables that has to play out

to what Alex just posted

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:11 PM

This is some intense convection.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 09:12 PM

I see we've all made the switch to weathernerds.org lol

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:13 PM

Tropical Tidbits' horrible site performance kinda made it essential lol

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 09:13 PM

Is there a way to turn off smoothing with ir imagery on there?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:24 PM

If that southern center becomes more dominant then it's major trouble, that would put it smack dab in the middle of that uber intense convective flareup.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:28 PM

It looks like the center is staying south, and on a western direction. This will throw all the models off that had land weakened it

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:29 PM

another curveball then

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:29 PM

I am just amazed how much that convection flared up and how quickly, that looks like a WPAC TS

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:32 PM

The water just south of PR is crazy high OHC

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:33 PM

Thats going to result in some cataclysmic flooding and mudslides for Dominica (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:35 PM

RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 48.4% 31.3% 15.4% 12.6% 21.3% 33.9% 47.8

Those are big numbers

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:36 PM

yes indeed

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 09:43 PM

I would think, with these explosive CBs, that the LLC recon found recently would be amplified and become dominant

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:44 PM

Laura microwave is just going nuts

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2020_13L/web/gifsBy12hr_03.gif

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:45 PM

With how far south the LLC is, wouldn't be a surprise to see Laura dip shortly south of Cuba

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:46 PM

If it takes a more southernly route wouldn't that put the Texas coast at risk?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:47 PM

I don't think the Texas coast was ever in the clear, especially considering how close some models cut it

A weaker Marco means a track possibly further west, so it's pretty dynamic

1

18z EPS highlights this huge spread pretty well

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:50 PM

all of this has probably given the fine people at NHC white hairs

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:50 PM

Something tells me the cone is gonna get a fair bit wider next year, lol

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:50 PM

Next year?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:51 PM

so now Laura could make landfall anywhere from Texas to Mississippi

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:51 PM

The cone is a five year rolling average of 2/3rds track error @Alex V (Wausau, WI)

Anomalously high track error this year -> skewing that rolling average

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:54 PM

For that reason this year will probably be counted as an outlier

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 09:55 PM

I guess we'll see if model performance rebounds next year

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:17 PM

18z GFS of Laura.

5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 10:30 PM

Is...Laura forming an eye?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:31 PM

what I am wondering too Royce

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 10:36 PM

That has to be a false transient mid-level eye feature

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 10:36 PM

That's what I was thinking Ethan

The way it formed just didn't seem like it was an eye

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 10:37 PM

Just a dry spot between hot towers

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 10:43 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 993.4mb/ 53.0kt

Those are a big jump from dvorak

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:45 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 10:45 PM

If this continues south of the islands, ukmet really the only one that’s been showing it lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 10:51 PM

Mesoanalysis shows the low level center way SW of the track. Near the false eye (edited)

Strong convection will tend to pull the mid level center toward the surface center of convergence

So the path could deviate southward again

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:44 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/diagplot/2020al13_diagplot_202008230000.png

posted in wrong chanell first lol

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 11:45 PM

Don't have a good feeling about Laura

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM

Bad feeling as in falling apart, or bad feeling as in running buck wild in the gulf?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM

The 2nd one

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM

its a prime candidate to pull a katrina in the gulf

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:46 PM

Going RI to EI crazy in the GoM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:47 PM

it will be a fairly well aged storm by the time it passes cuba, the wind field will be large, and it will have lots of time to rebound /w that large wind field

if it does ramp up to cat4/5, it wont be a small monster, like michael, it will be a huge beast with high kinetic energy

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:48 PM

This is the most amount of lightning strikes I've seen associated with a TC in a while

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:48 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.5 / 992.2mb/ 55.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.5 3.6 4.5

based on raw t its already a hurricane

the convection just hasn't made the conversion to wind and pressure

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/13L-2DWIND.GIF

its already huge. what's why we called it big chungus

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 11:51 PM

Isn't that ADT center fix too far NNW?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:54 PM

that's where the official center is, roughly, but i think its off yes, it looks to be closer to the false eye

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 12:03 AM

Oh lawd she comin

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 23-Aug-20 12:11 AM

00z GFS to Texas

Ukmet as well

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 23-Aug-20 12:15 AM

I guess I haven't watched the earlier stages (ie: pre-hurricane) of one on satellite loop before .. because the way that grows looks a bit weird .lol. Plus the 'eye' to me just looks like a open space rather than a true eye (basically what you guys were saying)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 12:49 AM

CDO looking really solid for a TS, question is where the center is.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 12:55 AM

Laura about to go full Hulk Hogan in the Gulf.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:07 AM

It should be noted that where Laura landfalls will depend a lot on how much Marco strengthens which the models have a poor handling of, at this point Laura could landfall anywhere between Florida and Mexico. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 03:07 AM

ADT puts eye over land, finally. so i would guess its on the southern tip of DR right now. near the middle of the hot-towers

eye/center, whatever it is at this point. its a freak

those upper level outflow bands venting to the N and S despite it being half over freaking hispanola is nuts

its getting stronger...DESPITE LANDFALL

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:33 AM

https://twitter.com/Minghao_Zhou/status/1297430310003638272

Minghao Zhou (@Minghao_Zhou)

Besides the (almost) guaranteed enormous heat input from the ocean, #Laura would likely receive another privilege of being endowed with some double outflow jets as it moves into the Gulf, almost "borrowing the whole steering high as its own outflow anticyclone"... 3/n

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:35 AM

All the flooding from this in Dominica can not be pretty.

With CBs that high there are probably some insane rain rates, all those CGs also indicate more intense cells with higher rain rates.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:47 AM

TS Laura is STILL maintaining that cold CDO constructed from those intense CBs

Extreme amount of lightning still present

Even with land interaction, Hispaniola initially won't disrupt it

Summary: We cannot take out eyes off this TC, even with it's trek through the GoM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 04:35 AM

First time I've seen 60 with UL Divergence

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 05:01 AM

High end Cat 2 peak now

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 05:04 AM

id where you're getting those numbers

I see mid-grade Cat 2

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 05:06 AM

I saw 85-90kt

Yup, 85kt forecasted peak near landfall

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/230242.shtml?

beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 05:22 AM

@Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) have you checked 00z GFS?

beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 05:59 AM

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 23-Aug-20 07:44 AM

I have a genuine question, do ERCs affect the track of the hurricane at all or solely the intensity?

Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Aug-20 07:48 AM

uhh... I'm not too sure actually pretty sure just the intensity but I could be wrong as I'm not well versed in tropical weather

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 08:17 AM

I have a genuine question, do ERCs affect the track of the hurricane at all or solely the intensity?

@Michael Carty (Plano, TX) generally just intensity.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 10:48 AM

https://twitter.com/AScheinthalWSVN/status/1297545614398562305

Andrew Scheinthal (@AScheinthalWSVN)

UPDATE: With Tropical Storm #Laura moving farther south, the Florida Keys has rescinded its partial evacuation. @wsvn

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:31 AM

ADT: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.6 / 989.4mb/ 57.0kt

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:38 AM

How far that 100 mph marker is inland is... concerning

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:50 AM

Yeah I was looking at their forecast track last night. Seemed like there was a peak in between 12 hour windows

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:56 AM

I'll have to watch the next few updates for it

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 12:00 PM

Euro has a Cat 4 on approach to the TX/LA border: https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1297492720630603776?s=21

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

Yikes: Overnight weather model data for Laura is foreboding. Our best guidance shows a "massive hurricane" intensifying over the open Gulf of Mexico heading west to TX/LA coastline by mid-week. Only thing we can do is hope Laura does not reach its full potential.

Retweets

204

Likes

358

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 12:42 PM

Borderline cat 4 is par for the course at this point. We should just be hoping it's a Rita and not a Katrina

beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 01:43 PM

The position of laura will all depend in Marco. The longer he stays spinning in LA the farther west he'll push Laura. Pay attention to that as she enters the gulf.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:45 PM

Wouldn't it push Laura east since the Fujiwhara effect in the Northern hemisphere is CCW?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:00 PM

Laura back over water and seems to be attempting to solidify it's core a bit more before hitting Cuba.

If this takes the southernly route and avoids the bulk of Cuba it could be off to the races.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:08 PM

If you want to view the radar that’s at Guantanamo Bay

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/fwcn.html#!/swr.html

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:09 PM

Looks to be moving nearly due west.

Oh boy...

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 23-Aug-20 02:10 PM

That really does look like due west

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:12 PM

If the center stays just overwater and skirts the southern Cuba coast it could be very bad for Cuba, especially flooding-wise (considering the monster convection Laura had last DMIN).

1

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:13 PM

Southeastern Cuba is really the only part that is pretty mountainous (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:17 PM

The core has got the "look" on Vissat. (No, that's not an eye, but convection is wrapping around the center).

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Do you mean SE Cuba @Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) (edited)

If you meant the SW portion of the SE mainland then yeah

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:19 PM

Yeah I meant SE (edited)

beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 02:19 PM

Marco will be far enough inland that it will keep laura out in the gulf but will not kill her. It will actually make her stronger. Once marco moves inland enough Laura will go north. Like i said marco will determine when and where laura lands. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:20 PM

Kind of hard to describe geography of Cuba with its curved shape

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:33 PM

Center clearly visible with due westward movement.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:35 PM

Recon will be in it very soon

They are starting there descent into the storm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:46 PM

FL winds of 60 knots NE of Cuba

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:47 PM

Lots of orange, 1 purple

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:48 PM

60kts flight level winds, not even near the core yet.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 23-Aug-20 02:48 PM

...I feel like more these models are creeping closer and closer to me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:50 PM

I had a dream last night that Laura recurved Into the Atlantic and missed the US. My dreams never come true so we are screwed

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 23-Aug-20 02:51 PM

Meanwhile I had a horrible dream that both of them ended up dumping a ton of rain on eastern Oklahoma and we had the flooding disaster from last year all over again.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:53 PM

I think tx, ark, Nola are most at risk

Models have a lot of rain I to ark

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 23-Aug-20 02:54 PM

Yeah, I just feel like every time I see a new model it creeps closer to home. Probably just in my head.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 02:54 PM

We might get some rain from it here, it’ll mostly depend on where it makes landfall at (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:01 PM

Pretty much the only hope for Laura not getting its act together fast enough to deepen a lot was if the core was disrupted pretty heavily by land interaction and had to reorganize and at this rate that isn't looking super likely honestly

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:01 PM

Well, it is what it is.

Dave Arnold (Brandon, MS) 23-Aug-20 03:02 PM

I had a dream I was finally going to see a legit hurricane come near me outside Jackson, MS before I move out of state in a week. I wake up to find Laura now missing me by a whole state!

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Aug-20 03:02 PM

Not a great time to be a forecaster, local government official, or local EMA

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM

Well 47 knots SFMR so far with a 1004.3 mb extrap

Not even to the center

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM

extrap pressure transmission also looks pretty spotty

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM

ATCF puts it at 50 mph and 1004 mb

Yeah hopefully we get some drops

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:09 PM

ADT puts it at 57 kts

We will see which one is more correct

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 03:10 PM

ATCF puts it at 50 mph and 1004 mb

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) Kts or MPH?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:10 PM

45 kts 50 mph so yes mph

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 03:11 PM

Gotcha. Wasn't sure.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:17 PM

998.3mb extrap

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:18 PM

48 kt SFMR

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 23-Aug-20 03:18 PM

https://twitter.com/53rdwrs/status/1297612260257550337?s=21

Hurricane Hunters (@53rdWRS)

The 403rd Wing relocated its aircraft today as Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura make their way toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.The #AFRC Hurricane Hunters will operate out of Atlantic Aviation Charleston International Airport S.C. to fly both storms. https://t.co/WGgRLaBz2...

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 03:55 PM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 04:05 PM

Watch the HWRF and HMON models. Both of those bring Laura close to Houston and have support from the 00z EPS suite.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 04:11 PM

latest recon pass over Laura

kek

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 04:20 PM

That would put it at 64 mph removing the contaminated readings.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 04:20 PM

Yep around 65 mph

72 knot FL is pretty significant too

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 04:36 PM

What's the ground speed so far?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 04:40 PM

At least 50kts, if recon is to be accepted (edited)

1000mb sfc pressure w/ 32kt wind- equates to ~997mb

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 04:47 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxmTQMyEQXg

Tropical Tidbits

Marco to Make Landfall Monday; Laura a Dangerous Threat to Greater ...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be interpreted as such. Wh...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 05:05 PM

marco looks like it has peaked. laura is gonna pump it up

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 05:10 PM

7

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 23-Aug-20 06:05 PM

Sorry guys, I cursed us all

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 06:07 PM

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 23-Aug-20 06:26 PM

it's going to do the 100 mile wobble on each run

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 06:57 PM

Looks like recon bailed on their mission into Laura about. Last VDM was an hour ago. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:00 PM

Laura living up to the Big Chungus name and going all massive convector again.

5

3

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 07:02 PM

-90°C on those cloud tops

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:05 PM

Just wait for closer to DMIN for it to go all out insane like it did last night.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 07:06 PM

I'm concerned Laura could pull some RI tonight

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:06 PM

I don't know what to make of this thing, Laura has (so far) acted much more like a WPAC Tropical Storm than an Atlantic one.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 07:07 PM

Looks like the center of Laura is onshore or very near Guantanamo Bay.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 07:08 PM

It moved onshore about an hour ago now

current radar view

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:09 PM

Watch the uber convection pull the center back over the water again

4

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 07:10 PM

plenty of lightning in that convection too

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 07:16 PM

It moved onshore about an hour ago now

@Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) thanks. It’s hard to tell from radar.

2

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 07:37 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297678290250010629

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] #Laura could be tilted slightly southward, with the radar-indicated surface center now over eastern Cuba, and the mid-level center possibly still offshore. Whether the MLC nudges the LLC back southward is important for how much interaction with Cuba occurs tomorr...

4

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 08:03 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1297684388721750018?s=19

NWS Key West (@NWSKeyWest)

An automated observing system at Guantanamo Bay recently reported sustained southeast winds of 60 mph, with a gust to 72 mph. Follow along with these observations at https://t.co/6pVYoyT0wj! #flwx #FLKeys #KeyWest #Laura https://t.co/yxoc1J4o6s

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 23-Aug-20 08:05 PM

That loop really shows that she's moving due west

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 08:15 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 08:49 PM

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Aug-20 08:50 PM

I'm rooting for CEM2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 08:50 PM

Both Laura, one is from Laura's HWRF run and the other is from Marco's (edited)

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 08:54 PM

Reminder - If you are going to be in the strike zone for this storm, let an Orange know, and you will get the red Ground Zero role, and posting access on #laura-ground-zero-2020 .

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 10:46 PM

...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 23-Aug-20 10:48 PM

getting close

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 10:49 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/747286230907224103/024654_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

105 mph peak still

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:50 PM

is her center back over water already?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 10:50 PM

Still over Cuba

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:50 PM

So she's intensifying. Over land.

This thing is going to explode once it gets to the gulf.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 10:51 PM

I think it's more of an intensity update, since the recon flight also support 55kt

They just had surface obs to corroborate it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:53 PM

What also concerns me is that the MLC to the south looks like it is becoming stronger/more dominant, a southward shift/relocation is pretty possible.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Aug-20 11:00 PM

If it relocates again there's a pretty decent chance it could become a hurricane tomorrow, environment is pretty favorable if it has less land interaction.

Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Aug-20 11:02 PM

Ok

6

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 11:09 PM

Yes, classic NAM3km and the CAT5's

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 11:11 PM

Cat 5s with massive windfields

lol

This is why we don't use the NAM outside of early season frontal spawned weak TSs

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 11:25 PM

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1297731225713549312

John Homenuk (@jhomenuk)

NAM: I made a mistake ECMWF: Par for the course mate lol what happened? NAM: Someone said hurricane and I… GFS: Oh my god

beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 11:44 PM

Watch the high pressure system to the east. It's going to move west and push her back againts the tx/la line if not farther west.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:56 PM

Might I remind everyone that nam3km nailed Dorian's path and intensity for several days once it got into range

So cat 5 fantasy cast might become reality if it gets into the right setup. 3km handles strong convection really well. Something the hurricane models dont

J. Mike Sheard (KY) 24-Aug-20 12:11 AM

HWRF did as well

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 24-Aug-20 12:15 AM

Very deep convection with plentiful lightning continuing to fire off overnight, starting to look like it ends up mostly going south of Cuba and allowing for more intensification tomorrow. (edited)

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 12:20 AM

The issue here is none of the models are agreeing. So right now all we do know is LA will be effected. But will it make land fall along the texas coast, the tx/la line, la line? Every run it jumps back and forth.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 12:48 AM

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1297755657056202752 here we go again (edited)

Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx)

Recent (~1.5 hours old) ASCAT pass over #Laura shows an LLC south of Cuba's southern coast. If it manages to become dominant which seems plausible given the convection further south, it means little further land interaction, & earlier organization, though NE shear will contin...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:47 AM

Laura's structure definitely took a hit from SE Cuba, though since it's back over water again it may begin to recover a bit.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 04:54 AM

It's so elongated rn

But better than earlier

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY....

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening.

NHC saying in discussion it may become a major

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 06:04 AM

Certainly couldnt rule it out

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 06:13 AM

Looking less long now

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:49 AM

The core convection is shallow and scraggly looking but it’s getting there.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 07:43 AM

Good morning Laurw

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 08:57 AM

The move south of Cuba could be interesting

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 09:01 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008241200.gif

she's close

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 09:56 AM

00z run of the hwrf had laura down to a borderline cat 3 at landfall. 06z brings it up to a max cat 4. let's see what 12z brings...

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:02 AM

If it rises the west aide of the cone then that would be more possible

The farther west just means more time for it to strengthen

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:26 AM

At least some pretty good consensus that itll be a pretty strong system its just the track that could change these numbers a bit

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:30 AM

look at the visible. laura is going bonkers

every reliable model has this at close to cat 3 or cat 3 landfall. HWRF and HMON both set on cat 4+

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:32 AM

look at the visible. laura is going bonkers

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Can you explain how Laura is "going bonkers"? Recon is finding 999-1002 mb pressures.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:34 AM

the hot towers are wrapping around the upshear side. (shear is from the NE right now, weird right?)

upshear towers are always a sign of intensification. recon won't find a pressure drop for 6-12 hours after convection begins to recover

at this stage, it's all about proximity of convection relative to the center, cloud top temps. etc

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 10:36 AM

North or NE is the shear.

But yeah she’s looking better (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:37 AM

there is still a little dry air near the center on the NW side, based on mid-level WV. this could limit her going really good today. but she will likely be a hurricane by tonight

even the slow-rolling EURO has her leaving cuba has a hurricane. so the odds of her dying off or shearing apart like marco are pretty low

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:41 AM

Thanks @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) and @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS). Pretty sizable shift west on the 06z Euro. Perhaps it’s finally caught on to where the center is? Either way, Houston/Galveston in the right side of the Euro’s track = not good. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1297885976056995840?s=21 (edited)

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

Bad news from the final batch of morning weather model data especially if you are in Texas. The spaghetti solutions from the ECMWF 06z update (ensembles) shows the most-likely: Track: including Houston metro. Intensity: Category 2-3+ likely.

Retweets

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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 10:43 AM

If Laura goes west, I will have a window view

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:44 AM

unlike harvey, this will likely have a MASSIVE storm surge infront of it. wind will be a problem, but the surge will be ike-worthy, or worse

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:45 AM

If this makes landfall in SW LA, the surge could be worse than Rita.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 10:46 AM

yeah the angle of attack coming into say, lake charles, is much worse than rita. the bayou would be topped all the way to lafayette

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:15 AM

Hmmmmm....https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297908096925302784?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

As others have mentioned, looks like recon is finding another, robust & closed level center ~1 degree due west of #Laura's previous low-level center fix. If this center becomes dominant, it would have major track & intensity implications going forward.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:23 AM

Looks like the dominant center has moved to the hot tower near 21N/80.9W.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:25 AM

This storm likes to relocate

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 11:26 AM

It will likely wobble about 5 more times before landfall (gulf)

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 24-Aug-20 11:35 AM

looks at models HEAVY BREATHING

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 11:41 AM

locals

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 11:57 AM

euro model spread is still brownsville all the way to NOLA

pretty nuts for the 'best model' as many claim

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 24-Aug-20 12:09 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 12:14 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/hwrfdiag/2020al13_hwrfdiag_202008241200.png

HWRF is back calling for a near-cat 5

with an absolute horrible landfall near lake charles.

those bayous are already in horrible shape. if they get destroyed we'll lose a ton of nature reserves, and the protection they provide

there's also the risk as massive oil leaks. so many platforms in that area. so many refineries

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 24-Aug-20 12:35 PM

refineries are a bigger risk than platforms

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 24-Aug-20 12:43 PM

and the refineries will release a lot of waste in addition to their fuel if they're hit (edited)

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 01:01 PM

The refinaries are fine. They've survived worse.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 01:09 PM

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/tIzTuw78mOgturD7elNR8-fTuD1RQIGvP3rSUJA--ho/https/www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-1013A-LAURA_dropsonde10_20200824-1640.png

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 01:18 PM

We have alot of refineries along Galveston Bay. (Texas City, north)

I'm two miles from the big one

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 01:40 PM

Sure does look like the center shifted west another degree. https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-1013A-LAURA.png

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:40 PM

I dont think you need to worry so much about the refineries.

Yep a small shift westwards.

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:05 PM

The ones that haven't exploded already will be ok lol. They'll be evacuated except for necessary personal which is usually 1 single manager, hand full of techs/enginners to watch the pressures etc and a few security gaurds that get double time (i was one of them during ike lol $$$$)

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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:06 PM

Have the local authorities said anything about what evacuations may look like given the pandemic?

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:06 PM

@TJ (Houston/Galveston TX). Are your staying put or are you going to go east and play?

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN). Evacuations for the coast is "go north as far as you can afford" most people find a hotel around waco or huntsville or go to a family members house. Some find an rv park (if they have an rv) and wait. They are use to this type of thing.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:08 PM

Yea, I guess I was wondering if there were any special concerns/efforts in place to contain the spread of COVID.

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:08 PM

Just the normal "wear a mask stay 6 feet apart"

@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱. Tj needs to be red

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM

Kleckner?

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM

Never mind you just did it lol

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM

Well I will be praying all the same. Hopefully that will be enough. Thanks @beard (fort worth)

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM

Someone did. Wasn't me?

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:09 PM

I'm staying put as long as I can, but it depends on what the rest of the family does

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM

Owell

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM

I might have to pack the kids and the dogs in the vehicles, and run north

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) TXDOT is monitoring the situation currently for Houston

1

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:10 PM

Floridaman knows how to deal with this.

Board shorts, American flag, Slayer.

3

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM

https://tenor.com/view/epic-flag-hurricane-america-american-gif-9184215

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM

lol

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM

RAINING BLOOD!!!

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:11 PM

TXDOT is worthless during a hurricane.

Their worthless in sunny weather too

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM

Atleast they have posted something about it lol. Either way for Houston is basically take 59N or i10W

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM

For Galveston and bay areas, https://saltwater-recon.com www.texas-city-tx.org/page/city.camera https://www.galveston.com/webcams/

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM

45N you know will be backed up

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM

I just order a 36 pack of water, 24 pack of dr pepper, some chips, lunchables and my mom made spaghetti i need to go pick up. Going to be a long week lol

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM

yeah, I was going to run west, say Columbus

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:13 PM

Pretty much should be good.

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:14 PM

West of 45 should be fine unless laura decides she wants to check up on the harvey rebuilding

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:14 PM

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:14 PM

https://twitter.com/TxDOTHouston/status/1297944599613313024

TxDOT- HOU District (@TxDOTHouston)

In the Houston area contraflow would only be implemented as a last resort on IH 45 North Frwy, IH 69 Eastex, IH 10 Katy, and US 290 and only after local authorities mandate evacuations. We stand ready if asked by local authorities to help in this type of effort.

Yeah getting to Columbus should be fine for you @TJ (Houston/Galveston TX)

Missing some of the big highways were you know youll be backed up.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:16 PM

my route takes me under 45, and away from Houston

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Most of the people who will evacuate have already or will in the morning depending on the updates tonight.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:17 PM

45 is a nightmare on a sunny day

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Turner just needs to be smart about it. I think he learned his lesson the hard way with Rita. Harvey he stood ground @beard (fort worth)

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:18 PM

Turners a dumbass in every aspect of life.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:18 PM

Houston is PACKED. They'd have like 20 lanes outbound on contraflow, and they'd need every bit of it for an evac.

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:18 PM

He's why half of HFD is gone

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:19 PM

Im not gonna get into politics but he atleast was smart about evacuation. Yes our house flooded but he could have got alot of more people killed telling them to leave during Harvey. Rita was a mess. Idk how we didnt get into any of the traffic since we evacuated to Laredo.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:20 PM

What is that one road I drove on when I picked up that ambulance down there? The Sam Houston Expressway? 10 LANES each direction, bumper to bumper traffic, but it's all moving at 70mph.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:20 PM

Good Ol Beltway 8 @B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ ?

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:20 PM

45

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:21 PM

It was named after a dude

But I think a lot of stuff there is

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:21 PM

Probably was sam houston/45 sections of it are called that.

Did you go towards dallas or LA

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:23 PM

East to I-10.

The Tim Ball connector to the Sam Houston? Then some roads, which appear to be major roads, are just named Farm Road (number).

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:23 PM

Yup

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:25 PM

Well, west to Advance to replace a radiator hose that had immediately blown, then Harris County Smokehouse, then east to I-10.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:27 PM

Love how you remember this all so vividly (edited)

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 02:29 PM

When you spend 7 grand on a strange ambulance, fix it on the roadside while looking at scorpions (those don't exist here), and then drive it sight unseen across the country, you remember it.

1

Took 3 days to get home. I thought it would be faster.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 02:32 PM

Yeah it can get bad. Im still surprised we missed the Rita mess when that happened. Forgot how we did it. Didnt evac for Ike though since Rita was no big deal.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 24-Aug-20 02:36 PM

@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ I took care of TJ on the red. Probably did that an hour ago. Another reminder for anyone who needs the red tag for ground zero, contact an orange and we'll get you fixed up

I'll be in Fredericksburg when it makes landfall, probably will be too far west to get any rain out of it

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 02:50 PM

A rolling brick being fast..... Come on dean lol

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 24-Aug-20 02:54 PM

Well, I don't think I have to worry about the dam. Would take a lot of rain very fast for it to be a problem for us in Tulsa metro.

still keeping an eye on it. any time something like that comes through here its client site outages left and right for a few days, and road flooding makes a mess of dispatch.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 02:58 PM

https://abc13.com/weather/voluntary-evacuation-in-effect-for-some-galveston-residents/6386169/

Galveston officials issue voluntary evacuation for residents not pr...

The city said residents along the west end may begin voluntary evacuation today at 1 p.m. as Tropical Storm Laura moves closer to the coast.

I'm safe from the water, not from the winds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UA607f-SUa8

City of Texas City

Texas City Pumps Help During Storms: PSA

The Texas City Pump station is a critical piece in the @Texas City Emergency Management plans for the Hurricane Protection Systems in the City of Texas City There are two pump stations in the city that take runoff rainwater from the ditches and pump them into Moses Lake. The...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 03:46 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008241800.gif

still pretty frisky

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 03:56 PM

for laura in about 12-18 hours, it'll be game on for it (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:01 PM

models have a pretty slow start for her once she's away from cuba. but then they go nuts mid-gulf

still intensifying until just before landfall when it might do a replacement cycle

euro shifts further toward houston again, even S of it. but only 1 cat 3 ensemble

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:28 PM

Honestly this thing looks like it’s primed to RI once it’s in better conditions. It’s been slowly building its core throughout the day, question is how strong will it get. The only real future inhibitor of how fast it will strengthen is its size, which might make it slower to roll at first before the RI. (edited)

She's having a wild convective burst again

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:34 PM

those new towers on the west side! and that lightning! baby

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:35 PM

Keep in mind: That convec fired up in just 4 frames

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:35 PM

the surface lows appears to be fairly spread and unorganized still, but mesoanalysis shows there is still very good convergence at low levels, something macro didn't have

it definately has the look of a WPAC storm (that are often sheared from the NE when they start) that's about to pop

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:37 PM

It's going over some very hot water right now, which should help it better organize before going over Cuba again and then head out to more favorable conditions in the Gulf

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:38 PM

yeah the bay of pigs is bathwater. it will have very little resistance over W cuba, it's very flat (edited)

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 24-Aug-20 04:41 PM

Cuba in general doesn't put on the resistance that Hispañola does, but especially western Cuba.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:42 PM

And to think this thing strengthened over Hispanola. What kind of WPAC sh*t is this storm?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:44 PM

higher SST's, higher ambient humidity, storms will be less reliant on synoptic situations and more dynamically forming

climate change is real, and its impacts may be unpredictable

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:45 PM

I read somewhere that the N Atlantic would warm faster than other oceans due to it's geography

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:46 PM

yes, it will warm faster than anywhere but the arctic

largely because it's main cooling / venting mechanism is the arctic side of the gulf stream. as the gulf stream slows due to salinity changes, more will heat will stay south, and less cold will funnel south

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:47 PM

Ironically arctic warming has been responsible for the monster winter storms with record-breaking snowfalls and 60+ mph high winds and also cold snaps we've gotten these past few winters.

Here in the upper midwest at least.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:48 PM

15 years ago when i was doing my climatology degree, cooling in the midwest was forecast in a full on climate change scenario. due to increased humidity in the summers, and the breakdown of the arctic low in the spring/fall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:48 PM

I've also noticed winter has shifted an entire month, it starts in January and ends in late April early May now.

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:48 PM

an increase in the intensity of hurricanes was not forecast, but we did think the season could be longer / more active due to waves that normally would die, hanging on until they could pop

higher SST's impact on the intensity of major hurricanes is non-zero, but not major. it simply increases the odds of RI slightly. however, in some storms, slight odds changes are all it needs

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:51 PM

Also we here seem to have less of a spring each year, how I can sum up these past few years is a winter with intense blizzards and cold spells straight into hot boiling temperatures in the span of a couple weeks, possibly some severe wx in there as well but I've noticed a particular increase of severe wx in August-November too. Also I've noticed there's been in uptick of derechos, the one in Iowa+IL the other week this year and the twin derechos we had last year being two examples.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:53 PM

derechos i would say are much more likely to increase in number than tornadoes. derechos are largely reliant on instability alone, with less depending on shear. vs tornadoes which are largely shear dependent. with the increase in humidity and therefore instability, wind events will become more common. tornado events may actually go down eventually due to the mis-timing of maximum shear with best instability that will occur once jet streams start moving north. perhaps winter outbreaks may become as common as spring ones

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM

Radar image

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM

I don't think tornado numbers will change much, but there may be an increase of EF3+s

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:54 PM

3/4 of an eye formed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:55 PM

Oh boy

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 04:55 PM

it's still open on the north, showing that it's struggling against teh shear and dry air form the land interaction

but if it can complete the circle. oh boy

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 04:55 PM

As I said, it's primed to go once it's in the gulf

It seems to be mixing out the multiple LLCs

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 05:07 PM

new mission about to set out

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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Aug-20 05:38 PM

There's a little mountain and hill range north of Pinar del Río, but it's only about ten miles wide and Laura has shrugged off much bigger mountains thus far

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:04 PM

Monadnocks don't affect TCs as much as ranges do.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:08 PM

quite the convective towers going up near the western tip of Cuba

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:13 PM

This is a solid T3.5 Probably 60-65 mph/996-998 right now.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 06:18 PM

See how it deals with its last passing of higher elevation

About 1000-1500 feet “mountains” on the west end of Cuba

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:24 PM

If it strengthened over Hispanola I doubt those few low mountains will do much to it. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:31 PM

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 24 AUG 2020 Time : 215021 UTC Lat : 21:47:13 N Lon : 82:25:12 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.3 / 990.0mb/ 51.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.3 3.4 4.1

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 06:32 PM

Steady pressure fall so far and not even to Cuba

1000.3 mb extrap still north of the Cuba coastline

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:38 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297944730240798720

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] Recon observations suggest that #Laura has a slight north-to-south tilt with height, consistent with the northerly shear. The MSLP minimum was located north of the 700mb wind shift, and the center dropsonde has west wind at the surface, but east wind at 700mb.

Likes

178

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:41 PM

That was from a few hours ago

It's likely stronger now

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:43 PM

ah

ty Alex

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 06:44 PM

995.1 mb extrap still falling

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 06:47 PM

https://twitter.com/AndClimatology/status/1298022793322336256?s=19

Modeling and Climatology (@AndClimatology)

Locations May be uninhabitable for weeks.”NWS Lake Charles is using some rather strong wording in their latest statement regarding impacts from #Laura.Much of the southern #Louisiana coast is forecast to see surge as high as 7-11 feet,and winds higher then 100 MPH.#Weather

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 06:49 PM

well

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:50 PM

To be fair, 996 earlier was my conservative estimate.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:58 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:00 PM

downtown lake charles is 15 ft above sea level. an 11 foot surge will drown much of the area and isolate it. the wave action will likely put much of the town underwater

anything stronger than a cat 2 will do incredible damage and reach up to 50 miles inland. potentially

uninhabitable is the correct word to use

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:01 PM

50 miles

Typo?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:01 PM

not a typo.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:01 PM

How could surge go 50 miles inland?

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:02 PM

there is very little rise in the bayous in some areas. it will infiltrate much in the way a river can backup during a storm

the bayous are essentially, a big flat river

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:08 PM

To be fair those bayous are barely habitable as they are, it's incredibly unstable ground to build (literally building on sand and mud)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:08 PM

lake charles is nearly 30 miles inland. the lake itself is an elevation of only 9 feet. much of the city is in the floodway

and numerous other small towns are built on much less stable areas than that. depending on angle of attack and wind you could see rivers reverse flow, like beaumont during harvey

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:16 PM

Can someone explain this wind profile to me? Weak winds being found at flight level yet there are SFMRs (unflagged) approaching 60kts.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:17 PM

That happened a couple days ago with Marco too

Its really weird

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:17 PM

SFMR and Flight Level seem to be flipped around

Dynamics causing upper level winds on one side of the center to mix down onto the opposite side?

I don't know.

Can that happen?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM

Oh people are saying they're flying a little higher up than normal rn

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM

they are doing high recon that swhy

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM

So it's probably actually stronger than we're already seeing, we'll see in the drop

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:20 PM

Right, winds are weaker higher up.

Makes sense.

Should have noticed the increase in altitude on that graph.

ADT puts it at 989 mb and 53 kts, T3.4

Sat presentation is really good, the pressure just found by recon just seems to still be catching up.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:23 PM

Honestly nervous about how this is gonna go

A major hurricane landfall is the last thing anyone needs rn

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:23 PM

When you see an ADT presentation ahead of recon findings you should be nervous.

That means it's strengthening

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:23 PM

And I think it's gonna go bombs away tonight

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 24-Aug-20 07:24 PM

officially leaving in the AM to chase Laura. Surge maps in Lake Charles may make this one tough

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:24 PM

Two recon planes in Laura right now

The second one seems to be upper air/environment sonde

Actually

They are decreasing in alt

They are flying at the same alt as the recon currently in the storm.

When you see two low level recons in one storm you know serious shit is about to go down (edited)

From Af309 (new recon)

Compare to NOAA3

Indicating a rapidly strengthening (and possibly expanding) upper windfield

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 24-Aug-20 07:37 PM

AF came in on the NE side, NOAA came in on the NNW side

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:38 PM

Also question about HH over Cuba. Doesn't AF HH need to get approval from the Cuban government or something since it's technically a US military craft flying over an unfriendly country? I know Cuba can be weird about airspace, especially towards the US. (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 07:42 PM

Iirc they let the hurricane hunters fly over and that's it

Having that data helps them too

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:45 PM

Just figured there'd be more geopolitical baggage with the AF HH since they are military.

NOAA I figured less so.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 07:55 PM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:03 PM

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 24-Aug-20 08:03 PM

Of course Cuba doesn't mind using our data, our aircraft, and our weather service, to help them with Hurricanes. They're still making brand new 1964 Mercury Montegos there.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 24-Aug-20 08:07 PM

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298048374004998144

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

Yikes! 938 mb right off the Houston coast. +54 hours

2

From the 18z Euro run

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:08 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 08:11 PM

well

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 08:13 PM

And the Euro was previously the bearish model.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:14 PM

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:23 PM

Looks like they're letting Recon fly over Cuba

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 24-Aug-20 08:28 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/747613082435584131/wg8shr.png

Looks like Marco took the brunt of that shear

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:29 PM

Literally died so that Laura could strengthen

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 08:34 PM

convection on the upshear side on the N, you knwo what that means boys. she's getting ready to pump it up

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:37 PM

Should only be over land for a couple hours too

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 08:37 PM

its already emerging

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 08:38 PM

It's crossing over the mountains rn and the fact they're doing nothing to do it isn't a good sign

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 08:38 PM

Still too much uncertainty Between the NAM and Euro

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 24-Aug-20 08:39 PM

18z HWRF shows it making landfall as a mid-end Cat 4.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 08:39 PM

It's organizing better over those mountains if anything

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:41 PM

CoC is close to emerging over the GoM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 08:43 PM

And it has that serious look already

How did the COC track over Cuba so quickly? It was in the bay just an hour ago

Also this sonde

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 08:45 PM

~60kt sfc wind, so take away 6 mb

You'd get 997mb

But that's not related to the eye

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 08:57 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlVI7ZNiFlI

Roxette

Roxette - The Look

Music video by Roxette performing The Look.

She's got the look.

Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 24-Aug-20 08:59 PM

thank you for getting that song stuck in my head

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 08:59 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlVI7ZNiFlI

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) good song.

Roxette

Roxette - The Look

Music video by Roxette performing The Look.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 24-Aug-20 09:36 PM

Primitive eye is here

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 24-Aug-20 09:36 PM

Already?

Damn, she wasted no time

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:38 PM

watching the recon data come in on GREarth

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 24-Aug-20 09:39 PM

So why is Laura projected to go as far west as it is?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:40 PM

one reason is the high pressure area nosing in from the east

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 24-Aug-20 09:41 PM

What about the really high amounts of shear in the Western gulf?

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:41 PM

from what I have seen not as much shear as the amount that basically had Marco for dinner

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 09:42 PM

Marco literally sacrificed itself

It dying lessened the shear

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:50 PM

I wonder about that convection south of the center of Laura as the center emerges into the Gulf

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 09:51 PM

That convection will die off as the convection around the core ramps up

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 09:51 PM

ah

ty Alex

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 24-Aug-20 09:55 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298073378683789313

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

Not sure if #Laura has already moved into the Gulf of Mexico yet. While it appears so on radar/satellite, the last @NOAA_HurrHunter fix over land was further S, suggesting the mid-level vortex has precessed cyclonically around the low-level center but is not quite aligned yet...

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Aug-20 10:04 PM

https://twitter.com/StasIsChasing/status/1298078337672318976

Stas (@StasIsChasing)

Wow 9 feet surge 50+ mi inland for Cat 3 for this part of Louisiana. Man that's pretty legit.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:06 PM

https://twitter.com/StasIsChasing/status/1298078337672318976

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) yikes. IIRC, I think the surge may have gotten to I-10 in Rita. (edited)

Stas (@StasIsChasing)

Wow 9 feet surge 50+ mi inland for Cat 3 for this part of Louisiana. Man that's pretty legit.

2

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 10:19 PM

00z SHIPS Rapid Intensification table. 54% chance of a 25+ knot increase in 24 hours:

6

GanondorfMain7606 24-Aug-20 10:26 PM

That’s pretty concerning. I hope my research mentors get to see this.

They work so much on TCs so they would definitely be interested in Laura.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 24-Aug-20 10:36 PM

Those higher values are pretty alarming too, 7 to 8 times climatological mean

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 24-Aug-20 10:39 PM

Is it still generally going further west the stronger it gets, or is that not accurate?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 10:45 PM

Forecast peak now 110 mph

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 10:46 PM

one more step up would be a Cat 3

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Aug-20 10:52 PM

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1298087797467774976?s=19

Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx)

Looks like #Laura is just emerging offshore. The convection trying to wrap has high winds, suggesting beginnings of an inner core. New convection is forming where recon found the wind shift, & most vortex tilt is gone. Laura is organizing, & will intensify w/ favorable condit...

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 10:57 PM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 24-Aug-20 11:01 PM

Really surprised they didn’t pull the watches West. If the overall track shifts west overnight, then the window for Houston to evacuate is very limited. Could be a scenario that Houston is in a watch one advisory, warning six hours later.

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 24-Aug-20 11:49 PM

That's a great point, considering how bad the Houston area evac was with Rita, (not the same circumstances of course) they need all the time they can get

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:17 AM

LOL WHUT

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:19 AM

NAM Im guessing?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 12:20 AM

Yeah that's NAM3km

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:21 AM

The NAM is normally 50 millibars below the actual possibility and comes up with ridiculous scenarios, which is why we don't use it for TCs outside of early season cold front spawns.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:34 AM

If ATCF is correct then Laura will still have a TS windfield extending well southeast even when well inland continuously pulling in surge, that plus tropical rains equals swollen backed up rivers.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:44 AM

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

Yeah, ADT, I don't think so.

New pink hot tower in core.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:15 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/diagplot/2020al13_diagplot_202008250000.png

Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 25-Aug-20 01:18 AM

newest IR sim

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:22 AM

Anyone know if the Euro still impacting Houston directly? Last model showed it.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:25 AM

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) we're still on this morning's euro run. it should be done soon. that run had 90% of it's landfalls near houston, cat 2-3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 01:26 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 01:26 AM

That hot tower is right over the center to based on the last recon pass

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:26 AM

master euro this morning had landfall near beaumont at 959mb we'll see how tonight goes

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:29 AM

Keep me updated @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:29 AM

200+ OHC, highest in the atlantic basin + near zero shear for the next 12-24 hours. if ever a storm was gonna bomb out, this is it

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 01:29 AM

Took a WSW jog

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 01:30 AM

Not surprised, that is where the convection is

She's about to blow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:30 AM

the eye is repositioning again toward the convergence

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:32 AM

Where are you viewing the euro model @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:33 AM

weather.us

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:34 AM

Thanks.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:35 AM

i expect a CDO to form tonight within this next pulse. then we'll probably get an eye to pop out in about 12 hours

ships and other RI's have 25kts/24hours well near 60% odds. basically a lock.

so 80kts by tomorrow night, likely cat 2 seems to be the forecast

some of these satelite sims are pretty. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2020082500/nam3km_ir_seus_45.png

IKE says its a hurricane again: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008250300.gif

10% friends. 10%... RIPA 70kt / 48h 9.5% 10.0% 9.7%

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 25-Aug-20 01:55 AM

Hold your horses on RI everyone (edited)

Its moving into dry air

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:16 AM

It's going to ingest Marco's moisture

But can we talk about that massive wave of moisture coming off of Africa?

Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 25-Aug-20 02:19 AM

heres the Euro https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/746813794415542303/747697547740446730/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png?width=699&height=475 south of Galveston per usual but honestly those models are pretty much sling shotting the Texana coastline (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:20 AM

948

Euro being more bullish than the GFS at this point.

Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 25-Aug-20 02:20 AM

sorry if i mess up. tropics arent usually my strong point

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:22 AM

HWRF really hates Louisiana

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:49 AM

COTC and Euro still liking the Texas Landfall

And I guess CMC and AEMN

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 03:47 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298140610923290624?s=20

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

I have a suspicion that we're gonna see another SW shift in the models w/ #Laura later today. The last recon center fix placed #Laura's center on the SW edge of today's 12z Euro ensemble. This is likely bad news for folks on the TX coast, esp from Galveston to Port O'Connor #...

Likes

109

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:52 AM

Multiple hot towers surrounding the CoC

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 03:53 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:00 AM

Looks like a solid CDO forming

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 05:01 AM

6

4

Now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:22 AM

Morning... and it’s now late August at its finest. Possibly a landfall from a major hurricane should Laura recovers.

Also, I should say that sometimes models underestimate rapid intensification.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:24 AM

Rapid intensification is always a struggle with models

So this should be interesting in the next 24-30 hours

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 25-Aug-20 07:26 AM

Pressure down to 993, near Hurricane strength

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:27 AM

Yep... Patricia was the big one, but I saw that with Irma and Harvey. Models suck with RI, but I can contact research mentors to see if they can find anything interesting about Laura.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:29 AM

Cant wait for the sun to rise on Laura and watch the satellite

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:32 AM

Yep that would be interesting with hot towers

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 25-Aug-20 07:36 AM

https://twitter.com/BrandiKHOU/status/1298220986341511168/photo/1

BrandiKHOU (@BrandiKHOU)

NEW | @CityofGalveston Mayor Pro Tem Craig Brown signed a mandatory evacuation Tuesday instructing all Galveston residents to begin leaving the island for safety. #KHOU11 #HTownRush

Oh lawd

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:53 AM

70 mph storm now

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 25-Aug-20 08:16 AM

The NHC has Laura making across the US and re-entering the Atlantic as a TS

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 08:18 AM

Post tropical cyclone with TS winds

Hurricane Laura now official

Special@update statement

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT LAURA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:25 AM

Here we go... oh and I’m curious to see what Laura has to offer as remnant if it’s going to pass by the town

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:26 AM

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1298228497257832448?s=21

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

All overnight ensemble members from EPS 00z were in Texas for Hurricane Laura with average location right thru Houston. Other guidance has belatedly shifted westward as well reflecting the current location of Laura.

No change from the 06z Euro: https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1298229657238675457?s=21

Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue)

No change with 06z ECMWF update that arrived just now. Houston under significant threat of strike from likely major Hurricane Laura lin less than 48-hours.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 08:27 AM

Half the models still trying to hit Houston?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:44 AM

Double hot towers circling the center. Like an ouroborus

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 08:47 AM

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1298239550070886400

Jack Sillin | weather.us (@JackSillin)

1-min satellite imagery shows twin vortical hot towers (-80C) currently rotating cyclonically around #Laura's center. This is a sign that the storm is continuing to intensify, and is likely to close off an eyewall soon. By this afternoon, we are likely to see an eye pop out...

Jack sillin seeing what Royce is seeing

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:48 AM

Gee bad news for Houston on the 3rd year anniversary of Harvey

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:50 AM

Houston well within the danger zone. The stronger this storm is the more left it will turn. In the absence of strong NW sheer the storm will try and go due west around the high

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 08:53 AM

77 knot Flight level winds found now

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:54 AM

Rapid Intensification ladies and gentleman

it begins..

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 08:59 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:00 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/747802030835368056/15983602860998575654223120248637.jpg

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:03 AM

Rapid Intensification here we go

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:03 AM

i had predicted an eye by noon. let's see if that microwave will confirm

notice there is no lightning near the center anymore. the dry air is gone

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:04 AM

Money says 10 am CDT

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 09:04 AM

Once she gets that eyewall closed off, it's off to the races

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:06 AM

she's going to eat macro by tonight. he still has a lot of vorticity around him, so the absorb might 'supercharge' her

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:06 AM

Oooh, I’ll look at the hollow former shell of Marco

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:21 AM

microwave shows eye is complete. waitign for cloud response

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 09:23 AM

HWRF wants this storm to have a large eye for some reason.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 09:24 AM

recon just found a 989, she's going fast

i only had her at 979 by tonight. might have been too high

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:33 AM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298251448673800193?s=21

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

Two recon flights are in #Laura currently & confirm its a #hurricane. However, rapid intensification does not appear imminent (yet). Earlier 85GHz microwave pass showed structure remains tilted w/ height to S. Until tilt is reduced, slow intensification more likely in short ...

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:04 AM

SST in Gulf of Mexico near TX Coast are 80-90F this morning based off buoy data. (edited)

Same goes for eastern portion.

Saw one that is 91 F near FL at 12 UTC.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 10:12 AM

H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (87.5mph)

6

SFMRs in the flight didn’t even approach that. Must be a mistype or a visual measurement

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:14 AM

6z HWRF has her at low Cat 4 during landfall, but I’m looking at others.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 10:15 AM

HWRF has always been going towards the high end.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:17 AM

Yep. It does usually.

That’s why I’m looking at other models. However, the SST is pretty warm

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 11:00 AM

New warnings: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass and from east of Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 11:02 AM

Fresh 10am cones

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 25-Aug-20 11:05 AM

Didn't really shift west, did it?

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:14 AM

9-13 ft storm surge

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 11:15 AM

it wobbles back and forth both sides of the TX/LA border. 6z NAM had it on the TX side, 12z back on the LA side

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 11:23 AM

We could see the first extreme wind warnings since Michael at landfall

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 11:25 AM

I bet

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:33 AM

Which livestream to follow, Hurricane Track, or Reed Timmer...

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 25-Aug-20 11:36 AM

I mean landfall is gonna be in the middle of the night so none of the livestreams are going to be that appealing to me

5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:40 AM

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr VF VF VF VF

VF is not good

VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr

looks like the stage is set for RI. now we wait

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 25-Aug-20 11:50 AM

Is the center vertically lined up, or is still tilted?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:51 AM

getting hard to tell under the current convection scheme. but microwave shows a giant blob at the center, which means it's likely still tilted

EURO. OOF

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:52 AM

GOOOD MORNING SPORTS FANS

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:53 AM

that feeling when even the euro wants to drop high end cat 4's on houston

when the worst case scenario is the master member...

that's not the ensemble folks, that's the official euro forecast. high end cat 4 into houston. WHERE IS YOUR GOLDEN GOD NOW?

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 11:58 AM

Someone tell Houston to make amends with weather gods

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 12:00 PM

cat 4 into houston? i've seen this one before..

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:03 PM

this is what they get for cheating at baseball

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 12:05 PM

They didn’t deserve this for cheating at baseball

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 25-Aug-20 12:06 PM

they deserved worse for cheating at baseball.

they deserved to be banned for a season.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 12:07 PM

Let's not put baseball into this. No one deserves a Cat 3+ hurricane hit them.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:08 PM

let us have mercy on the people of houston. except for joel osteen and the astros.

For those of you saying a surge can't go 50 miles inland. I present the surge watches

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 25-Aug-20 12:10 PM

if you consider southern Louisiana "land" sure it can go 50 miles inland

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 12:11 PM

For reference, Rita's surge made it on to I-10 in SW LA.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:12 PM

the issue is, nearly 300000 people live in that quasi-land area from beaumont to lafayette

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 25-Aug-20 12:12 PM

not epic

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:12 PM

and when the bayou's fill up, they don't drain right away, they wiill be flooded, or cut off for potentially weeks

this is the sort of storm that moves or destroys entire bayous for decades, like katrina did

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 12:14 PM

That’s what you get for very flat yet swampy lands at or below sea level for miles inland.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:16 PM

the lakefront at lake charles is 9 feet above sea level. it will be topped. the downtown area is only 15 feet up and could face serious issues

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 12:27 PM

this is of coures assuming the HWRF is right, and euro is wrong. if euro is right, move it all over to houston

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 12:38 PM

Well if Euro is right, it’s game over for Houston. I doubt Houston can handle Laura well three years after Harvey

Harvey did quite a number on Houston.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 12:42 PM

Looks to me off the last few images of visible and water vapor that there is some dry air interacting with the core of the storm. And that the LLC may be to the NW of the latest hot tower. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 12:50 PM

Doesn't seem to be struggling

Gradual intensification is expected until tonight

Since it's currently under a cold wake/eddy

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 12:52 PM

Harvey is another type of storm though @GanondorfMain7606 were it just giving us so much rain. Ike was fine for West Houston besides wind.

Downtown also suffered with a decent amount of wind damage. But that is all it was. Ike was a High End Cat2 at landfall though.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 12:59 PM

https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1298303838001258496

Scot Pilie' (@ScotPilie_Wx)

BREAKING: Calcasieu Parish officials have issued a mandatory evacuation for the parish ahead of Hurricane #Laura. It begins immediately. This includes Lake Charles. Heed evacuation orders.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:00 PM

HWRF comes in a little weaker. cat 3. but moved west. into beaumont

looks to be a very large storm at landfall. so the surge will impact the entire LA coast

i dont see any dry air infiltration on WV. i do see some REALLY cold cloud tops just E of the center. the rotation has been lost in the convection. we'll have to wati for the CDO to spread out for a few hours to find the center

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:08 PM

Lot of deep convection there in Laura... @Sean H(Houghton,MI) Yeah, you’re right. Harvey poured tons of rain there. Still, doesn’t change the fact that Laura can cause issues for Houston

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:15 PM

she's gone to pink! those cloud tops are the coldest yet. and teh southern outflow channel is online. once the north channel sets up she'll be in business

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:16 PM

Beautiful outflow on the east and south side. Still restricted to the north and west. Need that Nrly shear to relax.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:16 PM

zero lightning. the dry air is gone. she's gonna really start going now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:22 PM

I am learning a lot reading all of these posts. However, in order to get the bigger picture, do any of you have any good resources for me to learn tropical weather? Say on youtube? Thanks

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:25 PM

i would watch levi's posts on tropicaltidbits

sadly, tropical meteorology isn't even taught in most meteo programs. it's pretty rare. i had zero tropical met in my bachelors of met.

i do however, READ A TON of lit and white papers. those are the best for learning about tropical habits, however they are very dry and aimed at post-graduates

also, read every single forecast discussion. learn the terms, learn what things mean in the long term

2

also, the weather / science part is important, but knowing local geography and trends are key. like knowing that the sabine river won't be able to drain if there is onshore winds. or that lake charles, despite being 30 miles from the coast, is very likely to get storm surge. or that the i-10 will dissapear if anything stronger than cat2 happens

gonna have a bad time.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:34 PM

Let me preface this... This sounds bad This looks bad This is really bad

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:34 PM

red is 9+ feet of storm surge above ground level. aka RED MEANS DEAD

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:35 PM

Calling it now. Laura would be retired after this year

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:35 PM

How would this stack up to previous major hurricanes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:35 PM

Apparently Dorian was not retired

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

They are going to retire it, they just haven't yet

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

ah

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

I seriously doubt they keep a storm that landfell at 185

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

comparing to other storms, this will have more surge damage than IKE over a larger area than IKE, but not as high as katrina

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

I would hope that is the case, hard to get more devestating than that B**** was

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

They will reconsider Dorian next year...

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:36 PM

hmm alright interesting

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM

Pretty sure it drove a species to extinction due to the excessive deforestation

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM

Dorian? (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM

Yeah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:37 PM

i dont expect more than 15" of rain in E TX, however the rivers and dams are already full. so they could easily top. in addition, on-shore winds will prevent several major rivers from draining

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:38 PM

Considering that Dorian got caught in logjam as Cat 5 and ended up sitting in one spot for few days...

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:38 PM

The main impact will be the surge. The winds/rain are lesser I would think with this system. Definitly not Harvey rain. Or Camile wind. But widespread surge far inland will blow people away I think

Hopefully not literaly

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:39 PM

surge warning up to 13 feet now. that will be in downtown lake charles.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:40 PM

Dorian (and other 2019 TCs) wasn’t voted for retirement this year because lot of WMO meetings and voting were cancelled this spring, but WMO will make decisions for both 2019 and 2020 (including Dorian and Laura) next spring. @Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:41 PM

I am new to this. This is the first Hurricane season that I have closely followed. I did follow Dorian last year though

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:41 PM

I remember my first hurricane that I closely followed was Oscar back in '18

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:42 PM

Katrina was first one I’ve followed

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:42 PM

first hurricane i followed was andrew. and i'm not even that old lol

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:43 PM

I was a kid then... I also followed Sandy, Irene, Matthew, Patricia, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, and Dorian

A little bit on Issac and Earl

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM

My first memory I can put an accurate date to was hiding in the basement while Opal thrashed the pines outside so I got an early start lol

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM

I am from MN, so tropical weather is pretty far removed. Also, Meteorology is a side interest for me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM

i remember the 1995 hurricane season. now that was when things got really exciting

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:44 PM

NCAR has research lab devoted to TC

My mentors are TC mets.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 01:45 PM

Wish I had been more than 4 years old in 1995

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:45 PM

before 1995, there wasn't much coverage. TWC covered andrew but it was all remote. 1995 was the first in-person shots

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:45 PM

before 1995, there wasn't much coverage. TWC covered andrew but it was all remote. 1995 was the first in-person shots

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Wrong. Dennis Smith was in Coral Gables, FL for Andrew's landfall. Only TWC met to be in a cat 5. They started liveshots from storms with Gilbert in 1988.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:46 PM

My dad got some of Hugo when he was in Marines.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:47 PM

ah thats right, if forgot about dennis smith. wow that was a long time ago

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:47 PM

Yeah. Andrew was my first hurricane. I watched it all night on TWC.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 01:49 PM

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:49 PM

Laura’s definitely getting the show on the road.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 01:50 PM

I am planning to buckle down and watch Laura. Not sure the best ways to do it though. I am considering buying patreon on HurricaneTrack. Not sure what sources people use. Will there be a live stream here on Discord?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 01:50 PM

We should probably bring hurricane talk to the atlantic basin channel

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:50 PM

We should ask mods or admins

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:54 PM

there is a channel for people who will be riding out the storm

speaknig of andrew, his impact on southern louisiana i think is a good proxy for this hurricane

storm surge deep into he bayous, 115mph landfall. significnat, but not incredible wind damage

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 01:57 PM

Is it possible to get Ground Zero role here? Since I have my parents in the area and friends. But Im located in MI currently.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 01:57 PM

Depends on RI in Laura.

Models don’t usually handle RI well.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:58 PM

I'm just waiting to see an eye peak out

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 01:58 PM

ships is calling for 25kts / 24 hours to happen. good odds. the RIPA agrees

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 01:59 PM

Euro goes from 990 mb to 963 mb in 24 hours.

4

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 01:59 PM

im from NB, so tropical weather isnt tooo far fetched for me, first hurricane i can remember is sandy dropping like 10 inches of snow (lol) (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 02:00 PM

Euro has 940 mb at hr 38. Landfall very near Galveston.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:01 PM

Euro has been consistently going for that Galveston landfall lol.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:02 PM

937 mb storm at landfall for euro, damn

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:03 PM

euro doesn't even process RI properly. so that's a slow and steady intensification forecast

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 02:03 PM

Is it just me or does it appear that outflow to the NE has really improved over the past hour

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:04 PM

yup, the NE outflow channel is beginning

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:04 PM

Here we go ladies and gentlemen.... here we see her getting the show on the road.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:05 PM

Won’t be getting recon for another 5-6 hours

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:06 PM

Atleast you get Satellite imagery updates youll just have to wait for the numbers.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:07 PM

flight 18 just left for laura

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:07 PM

Believe it’s upper level recon

So will be flying around it

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 02:07 PM

Could see see an

️ poke out before sunset

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:08 PM

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm Heres Sat for GOES East.

(Updates Every 5 Minutes)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:09 PM

levi's comments on the eye being large and ragged, agrees with the models. big eye at first. slow strengthening. then it will tightening and really juice up, and be largely immune to share for some time

cloud tops making the classic "S" shape on satelite when things start to get going. outflow bands above new towers on N and S sides

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:14 PM

I can see more deep convection to the S of center from infrared satellite.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 02:15 PM

Well got access to the webcams at my parents house. Got eyes on the ground for West Houston

https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1298320561504911360

Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX)

The 12z European model's operational run has come in slightly further to the East, but more intense. On track, it is now in pretty good agreement with the GFS and HWRF models. Some models still a bit further west. New @NHC_Atlantic track forecast at 4pm CT.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:22 PM

12z euro

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:23 PM

937 mb...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:41 PM

visible shows a nice comma hook now. towers on all sides forming. the big dry slot from earlier wasnt a dry slot after all, the beginning of an eye

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:45 PM

This thing might RI sooner than expected if that is the case.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 02:47 PM

^

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:50 PM

It's def got the look on IR of an intensifying cane

Also outflow channel looking more healthy by the frame.

Also the lack of lightning by the core now tells me this thing finally stabilized and pulled together the dynamics in it's core region.

It's all uphill from here

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:52 PM

70kts official

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:53 PM

NHC?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM

1pm advisory said 65, but the automated update said 70

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM

ATCF said 70 knots yes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM

Also I don't know why ADT has been having so much trouble with Laura

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.3 / 989.3mb/ 51.0kt

It's way off.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 02:54 PM

Nhc will be at least 80 mph at 5pm

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1298327467392892929?s=20

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

My guess is it's a nascent eye forced by subsidence from that last huge burst, but there is definitely still a weak SW eyewall. https://t.co/LKJCxcJrtr

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 02:56 PM

ADT doesnt' like mature low-level cyclones /w poor cloud presentation

dvorak is totally cloud based, so weak IR signature makes it less accurate. it also doesn't work great for hurricanes w/o an eye

18 Z Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 42.0% 29.4% 24.4% 15.3% 17.9% 12.6% 14.8% Logistic: 14.0% 35.5% 24.9% 26.4% 15.5% 26.5% 15.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 21.7% 37.4% 14.7% 1.8% 0.3% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.2% 38.3% 23.0% 17.5% 10.4% 16.2% 9.4% 5.6% DTOPS: 32.0% 73.0% 41.0% 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 02:59 PM

So which row should I be looking at?

Also new tower in SW quadrant per IR

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 03:00 PM

the most important is the top row, SHIPS

10-20% = concerned, 20-40% = likely, 40%+ = lock it in

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 03:01 PM

Given the last frame it does seem to be doing a good job of having the deep convection wrap all the way around

Once SW quadrant is secured it's off to the races.

Also according to WV dry air isn't entraining much.

SW Quad being walled-off should seal it.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:22 PM

Interesting appearance

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:22 PM

Ah I was just about to share that.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:22 PM

If the eyewall closes off and that dry slot decides to become the eye, we're making good time on heading for major intensity

Figured more of a CDO appearance today but hey Laura has her own ideas

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:23 PM

Yeah she always been on her own with ideas

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 03:28 PM

We're a mosquito's fart away from a bad time here.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:30 PM

Very much so Chris

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:34 PM

convective burst on the SW side

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:34 PM

It is getting close for that eye

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 03:41 PM

IR shows nice towers on either side of the slot

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 03:44 PM

Yeah you can see them pretty well on the one i sent also

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 25-Aug-20 03:47 PM

The CB had some lightning in it, at least according to the lightning detection device on GOES-16

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 03:51 PM

that's a lot of pink towers

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 03:53 PM

Central pressure has to be in the low 980s

CAT2 by 12am tomorrow isn't out of the question at this point- RI is possible after sundown @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 04:00 PM

last dvorak estimate came in at 75 kts

3

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 04:11 PM

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:11 PM

That's some serious convection in the SW quad now, she looks like she's setting up to go buzzsaw.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 04:11 PM

See if it wraps around or not

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:12 PM

At the very least it's locking out the dry air.

It will get really serious once she begins to eat Marco's remnants.

Probably in about 12 hours.

Jack | (Findlay, OH) 25-Aug-20 04:14 PM

Don't see how it eating Marco will do much

There's not exactly much left

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Laura quite a bit NE of forecast in the short term

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:23 PM

@Jack | (Findlay, OH) Marco left remnant moisture for Laura to feed on while approaching landfall.

The remnant moisture is currently eastward but will move westward.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 04:28 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008251800.gif

well into cat 1 range

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 04:48 PM

Looks like all the models are agreeing for the most part. Just the exact location is unknown.

2

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 04:50 PM

cudos to NHC for not shifting the track just yet

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 04:54 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 04:56 PM

When is next recon?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 04:56 PM

It should have taken off

Interesting it hasn’t yet. Was scheduled to depart at 4:30 pm Eastern

Flight Two - Teal 74 Plane: WC-130J Take Off: 4:30 PM EDT From: KCHS Fix Time: 7:30 PM EDT, 1:30 AM EDT Time on Station: 7:00 PM EDT - 1:30 AM EDT Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet Flight Three - NOAA 43 Plane: WP-3D Orion Take Off: 5:00 PM EDT From: KLAL Fix Time: 8:00 PM EDT Time on Station: 6:00 PM EDT - 12:00 AM EDT Altitudes: SFC - 15,000 Feet

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 04:59 PM

We at least have the 5PM flight to look forward to, which is out of FL so a much shorter flight

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 05:00 PM

It looks like it just took off @Alex V (Wausau, WI)

NOAA49 already there

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 05:28 PM

Laura starting to take on the buzzsaw look too

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 05:31 PM

Define "Buzzsaw look"

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:32 PM

Outflow channels in all quadrants, banded structure, clear/clearing eye

2

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 05:33 PM

apologize for not making myself clear

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:33 PM

Yup

Seeing it now on infrared

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:34 PM

Holy crap.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 05:35 PM

It’s trying to wrap. This has been quick

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:36 PM

Lot of deep convection too.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 05:37 PM

Those towers are really flying around that center

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:38 PM

No eye yet but almost there... and there’s poor Marco sitting off LA shore

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 05:40 PM

https://tenor.com/view/the-office-brian-baumgartner-kevin-malone-it-all-happened-so-fast-so-fast-gif-5151849

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 05:44 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008252100.gif

half way to cat 2

RIPA indicating RI 40 possible: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/ripafcst/2020al13_ripafcst_000000000000.gif

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 05:47 PM

Lock it in... we got likely RI in progress

4

2

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 05:59 PM

That hot tower made it to the NE quad so far and is going strong

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:59 PM

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:00 PM

If that hot tower in the SE quad had made it further around I would be very confident that the eyewall is about to close

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:01 PM

And you can literally see hot towers on visible satellites too.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 25-Aug-20 06:03 PM

Looks like recon's first pass is gonna be from the NE quadrant to the SW quadrant (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 06:08 PM

"Buckle up, its going to be a bumpy ride"

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:11 PM

Looks like they are possibly going from the NW. Currently directly north of the core.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 06:15 PM

Lightning in eyewall hot tower.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 06:18 PM

dry air???

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 06:19 PM

No, RI in progress

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 06:20 PM

ah

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:20 PM

RI isn’t necessarily in progress.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:20 PM

I’d say starting likely

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 06:22 PM

The system is actually doing a good job of locking dry air out.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:22 PM

It really depends on how far this hot tower makes it around the core. RI can’t really happen until the eyewall is closed. The Tropical storms that RI into major hurricanes super fast typically manage to close an eyewall before winds catch up.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 06:23 PM

Tell that to Michael with its open eyewall until the day of landfall

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:23 PM

Michael: am I a joke to you?

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:25 PM

That’s true. There are exceptions but even that had 2-3 hot towers (iirc) that were flying around for a while before it closed off.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:26 PM

Well yeah there’s always an exception to rule... except for laws of physics.

2

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 06:29 PM

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001 https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42395 Laura will pass over these buoys eventually

NDBC - Station 42001 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42001 (25.942N 89.657W) - MID GULF - 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.

NDBC - Station 42395 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42395 (26.404N 90.792W) - Shell Alcyone Buoy - C16522 - Walker Ridge 552.

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:32 PM

Eye wall lightning boys

(edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:34 PM

Euro showing some uhh... pretty interesting hodographs near the central TX/LA border after landfall (edited)

Tornado potential is definitely there.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 06:36 PM

the 1km and 3km helicity ...

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:36 PM

there's literal off the chart hodographs at the time of landfall as well

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:37 PM

I’ve seen insane helicities in Irma while doing environmental analysis for research

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:37 PM

just uhhh.. ignore the fact the dew point is several degrees higher than the temp for a decent portion of the lower atmosphere

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 06:37 PM

those helicities would suggest potential for strong tornadoes...

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:38 PM

Should if minisups or supes sustain themselves in powerful shear

2

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:38 PM

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:39 PM

There’s a hodo floating around from Harvey that was launched by OU right before landfall. The balloon went almost all the way around the eyewall

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:40 PM

This hodograph (in the outer bands when Laura is positioned over the Central TX/LA border) looks pretty favorable for a few tornadoes

hodograph porn

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:42 PM

It can be difficult for minisupes to sustain themselves with small CAPE and powerful shear sometimes

Lol

Hodo porn 18+ only!

Zach C. (Kelowna, BC) 25-Aug-20 06:43 PM

What I was thinking as well. Pretty lack luster CAPE with high shear like that makes me think they'd just get sheared away

With those specific soundings anyways

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 06:44 PM

embedded tropical spinups are much more likely with this environment than any traditional supercell setups with the same environment, some pockets of higher instability will probably exist as well (edited)

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:45 PM

The hot tower that’s on the north side of the core has weakened a bit. May flare up again but we will have to see if it can make it through the drier environment that’s on that side of the core

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 06:46 PM

Man the CTCI Model sure does hate Galveston bay

and I think it thinks it will be a Cat4

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:50 PM

Hello RI

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 06:51 PM

Any readings from recon yet?

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:51 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:53 PM

Eye peaking. Towers around the NW side. This is what RI looks like

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 06:53 PM

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1298389931669291008?s=21

Tomer Burg (@burgwx)

Laura's structure continues to improve this evening, with two vortical hot towers rotating around the center. Although the broad nature of the inner core may slow intensification, we may not be far off from seeing a closed eyewall & clearing eye. Recon will be telling shortly...

1

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:54 PM

The tower that’s made it almost all the way around is restrengthening.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:54 PM

There are new hot tower off to NW

Maybe?^

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:55 PM

With lightning

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:55 PM

See that too

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:55 PM

The southern tower has kinda fizzled out a bit. Not super strong now

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 06:56 PM

This might affect recon actually, they have a VERY hard time making passes with hot towers popping up around the center like this (edited)

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:56 PM

There’s a new one in the SE quad that formed in the wake of the big tower

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:56 PM

Saw that too.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:57 PM

Eye structure on shortwave IR

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 06:58 PM

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1298393915846868993?s=21

Sam Lillo (@splillo)

Convective burst in the northern eyewall, rotating quickly around to the NW and W sides. Complete with some lightning too. This is a good indication that the real eye is about to pop soon.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 06:58 PM

Getting there...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM

The new eye is probably 30-50 miles NE of the forecast path. This could majorly pull models

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM

983.9 extrp

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 06:59 PM

Dvorak had been hinting at borderline cat2 for hours

If we hit cat 2 tonight, cat 4 is well within reach before landfall

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:01 PM

Models often underestimate RI

Just saying

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:01 PM

RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 42.0% 29.4% 24.4% 15.3% 17.9% 12.6% 14.8%

65 more kts still at 15%. That's high

Cat 5 is still in reach, and still with decent odds

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:03 PM

That’s basically a jump from Cat 1 to 5 within three days

That’s how much 65kt/72 h RI basically is

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:05 PM

Hold on to your hats boys. New RIPA is In

Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 64.7% 38.4% 51.6% 25kt / 24h 60.3% 69.4% 64.9% 30kt / 24h 58.7% 69.4% 64.1% 35kt / 24h 57.2% 69.4% 63.3% 40kt / 24h 54.2% 69.4% 61.8% 45kt / 36h 39.3% 41.8% 40.6% 55kt / 36h 24.0% 23.4% 23.7%

40 kts over 50%>. 55 kts 1 in 4

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:07 PM

So Laura has a strong chance to make a run for Cat 4

At least ^

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:07 PM

More than 50% of cat 4 or greater

RIPA tends to fluctuate less than ships does. It's pretty nice

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:09 PM

Can see the volume of those hot towers pretty nicely from the edge of GOES-W

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:09 PM

Deep convection nearly wrapped, lightning under the average convection in the gap shows something is ready to burst out of there.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 07:11 PM

The SE quad has really weak winds. Kind of surprising

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:12 PM

Hmm? Interesting

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:12 PM

The deep convection is still wrapping around to that region, once the eyewall is closed that should change.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 07:13 PM

984 mb dropsonde

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:13 PM

That’s a clean eye hit.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:14 PM

Almost there.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:14 PM

Definitely seems on or ahead of schedule

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:15 PM

The coldness of the towers concern me. Those temps are reserve for lower latitude storms and cat 5 beasts. This girl has some serious horsepower under her (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:16 PM

I wouldn't rule out a 120-130 kt peak at this point.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:16 PM

Gulf of Mexico had been so damn warm. It’s basically a giant hot cup of tea.

No wonder why this girl got some serious horsepower given decreasing shear on top of sultry warm GoM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:18 PM

But it's only gonna be a cat 3

Aaron (Bethany, OK) 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM

LOL

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM

BuT iT’s OnLy GoNnA bE a CaT 3

Aaron (Bethany, OK) 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM

Oh

I thought that said Hurricane Laura for a sec lmao

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM

Michael...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:19 PM

Contrast, compare.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:20 PM

And Michael had more shear to deal with than Laura probably will (edited)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:20 PM

"only"

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM

If a storm is showing serious possibility of being a major you should treat it like it has the potential to hit at least 130 kts. Because that is what every other major in the basin has done these past few years.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM

I'd be afraid to go to sleep now and be waking up to a much stronger storm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM

Only gonna be a cat 3

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:21 PM

RI is a pain in the butt to forecast accurately too.

B4 It’S oNlY gOnNa Be CaT 3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:23 PM

We all knew this was going to be a big storm when it was still a wave labeled "Big Chungus" Laura is living up to the Big Chungus name, her big windfield is to be reckoned with as well.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:23 PM

A data buoy 208 NM west of Naples FL- basically way into GoM measured 85 degrees water

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:24 PM

Outflow and convection in all quads looks to have expanded massively in the last 2-3 hours

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 07:24 PM

Wtf

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:26 PM

We have contact, a ring of -75 cloudtops now surrounds the eye.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 07:26 PM

VDM shows no evidence of an eyewall yet

So likely significant strengthening is off the table in the short term

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:27 PM

Watch it develop quickly.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:27 PM

Buoy data for temperature of GoM.

Station 42002 (Buoy) showing 87.1 F as most recent temperature. (edited)

Just giving you some sense how warm the water is.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:31 PM

So if this makes landfall Thursday night that's Harvey anniversary. Hard OOF

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:32 PM

https://tenor.com/view/off-size-off-wacky-face-pouty-lips-gif-16675463

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:32 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 07:33 PM

lightning around the center one more time

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:33 PM

Laura is still cranking out hot towers.

There's huge thinning out at center from infrared.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:35 PM

So if this makes landfall Thursday night that's Harvey anniversary. Hard OOF

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) Hm? Harvey's landfall was today 3 years ago

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:36 PM

Landfall was on the 26th but My parents started flooding on the 27th @Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:36 PM

3

Microwave. It's almost there

That was a couple hours ago. Waiting for next scan

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 07:37 PM

I had a connecting flight through Houston during Harvey and got stuck in Canada for a couple days til a rescheduled flight was available... watching landfall thru crappy hotel internet without international mobile data was certainly not very easy

The speed of those hot towers racing around the center is getting more and more rapid looks like

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 07:39 PM

Oh wow I kinda feel dumb, I didn't know Harvey had a number of landfalls

I was thinking of the one from 10:00 on 8/25

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:44 PM

Small dot. Not sure if its the eye. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 07:45 PM

Looks like a cloud shadow

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 07:45 PM

Yeah. Hard to tell with the grid lines.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 07:48 PM

That's to small to be the eye. It's a shadow.

On IR there is some warming where the eye would be. Could start to try to pop out a bit soon

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 07:50 PM

That's def shadow

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 07:53 PM

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:53 PM

Don't rely on visible for eyes. Use Dvorak or infrared

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 07:54 PM

Often you get an eye pop out on vis before IR

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 25-Aug-20 07:54 PM

983mb Jesus

Considerable drop from 990 earlier today

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 07:57 PM

Massive storms on west side with lightning. And there is definitely an eye in That shadow. IR has a warm spot (edited)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 07:58 PM

looking at IR those storms Royce are rotating around the center

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:00 PM

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-sandwich-24-1-100-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

Sandwich does not lie

Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 25-Aug-20 08:01 PM

...and CoD doesn't have zoom

(edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:01 PM

But my phone does! Your bummed

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Aug-20 08:01 PM

@Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL132020#homePageLink

Try this one. Higher resolution more zoom

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:03 PM

Doesn't work on my mobile. Lame

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:03 PM

My laptop can zoom in

I’m not on my laptop rn, though.

Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 25-Aug-20 08:04 PM

rammb slider is awesome with zoom, but it doesn't have sandwich

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 08:07 PM

Outer bands are hitting one of the buoys now

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 08:30 PM

Looks like 982.3mb extrapolate

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 08:31 PM

recon had 981 mb pressure at 718 PM CDT

watching the recon data here on GREarth

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 08:33 PM

Oh yeah. Missed those. Slightly offset from the wind minimum

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 08:33 PM

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1298417466234867712?s=21

Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)

One thing I am noticing in the latest recon data is that although the peak winds have only come up a bit compared to the pressure falls, the wind field is much more symmetric than earlier, with 60-70 kt FL winds in each quadrant. This will allow for symmetric intensification....

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 08:34 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 08:34 PM

Get the fuck out of Beaumont.

This is not a warning, this is a threat. Get the fuck out of Beaumont and lake Charles

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:35 PM

Storm surge ain’t something ya wanna mess with.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 25-Aug-20 08:36 PM

Texas City levee and dike. The live webcam will broadcast during the storm and runs on battery power and 4G cellular. http://www.texas-city-tx.org/page/city.camera

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:50 PM

B4 we wake up in morning to see Laura's eye in all of its glory.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 25-Aug-20 08:56 PM

Laura is making a any% speedrun trying to RI

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 08:57 PM

It had been posted already.

I think it was dropped in eye, and Laura had started on RI

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 25-Aug-20 09:00 PM

geez she is big

looks like she still needs to wrap that convection around then all systems are a go for more intensification

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 25-Aug-20 09:05 PM

still a tiny bit lopsided I would think

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:05 PM

Same... it would take some time

I believe RI is in progress though.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:31 PM

S-N pass, entering S eyewall (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 09:32 PM

Looks like 75 kt SMFR?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:33 PM

The 75 kt one is flagged, more likely 65, but this is the "clean" side of the core.

3

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 09:35 PM

I wonder if the track is going to bump a little further west based on surface obs+tonight’s upper air profile.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:36 PM

It’s been moving north/east of forecast the past 12 hours

If they shift it, probably be minor

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:38 PM

From the look of it, the hot towers are still going at it

Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 25-Aug-20 09:38 PM

models also shifting slightly east

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 09:40 PM

Amazing microwave pass

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:42 PM

F

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:42 PM

Of course it is going to break when we need it.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Aug-20 09:42 PM

I love how it cuts off directly where Laura is

2

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 09:43 PM

I dont understand why this is so unbelievably funny to me

Just, a black hole hurricane

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 09:44 PM

No. The 7 PM landfall is virtually identical to 10 AM.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:45 PM

Looks like they ran into some turbulence

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:46 PM

A little bumpy ride. Nothing to see here. Move on. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:47 PM

980

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 25-Aug-20 09:48 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298433218232844293

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] #Laura's eye was there for a moment, but is now hidden. This isn't a sign of weakening here, but of intensification. Buoyant convective bursts (gray/pink) are spreading clouds over the eye while releasing heat inside the radius of maximum wind, causing pressure f...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:50 PM

Who would think this is a weakening storm?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Aug-20 09:51 PM

https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1298436367781945344

Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker)

Holly Beach, Louisiana Cam 1. There will be another that goes up at some point. #LAwx #LSMwx

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 09:51 PM

Sat presentation points towards strengthening and recon keeps finding a millibar or two lost each pass.

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 09:52 PM

Like I said I believe that this girl is undergoing RI (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 09:53 PM

https://twitter.com/xlhunter3/status/1298437949051285508?s=21

Xavier Hunter (@Xlhunter3)

#Laura Dropsonde supports 978 mb

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:58 PM

Buoy 42001 has sustained 40 mph winds with gusts to near 55 mph

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 09:59 PM

I wonder what the sea looks like out there

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 09:59 PM

It’ll be a close call if it gets hit by the strongest winds in the north quad

Max (Saint John, NB) 25-Aug-20 10:06 PM

WTAF

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 10:06 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008260000.gif

It's happening:. https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/ripafcst/2020al13_ripafcst_000000000000.gif

Oof:. 40kt / 24h 32.3% 53.3% 42.8%

2

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 10:11 PM

It's got The Look

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 10:15 PM

I know this feels like I’m stating the obvious, but something tells me this will be strengthening all the way to shore, like Hanna did. (edited)

5

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Aug-20 10:38 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298448949846646787?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

The last dropsonde splash into #Laura's eye found a minimum central pressure of ~978mb, which is ~ 5 millibars lower than what was reported about 2.5 hrs ago. #Laura is undoubtedly intensifying

6

4

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 10:51 PM

Advisory out. 978 mb and 90 mph

5 knots off a category 2

120 mph peak now

14 foot surge forecast

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 10:56 PM

Beaumont has so many warnings/alerts at once

Lake Charles...

Hey I’m signing off for the night but I’ll check back in the morning. (edited)

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:09 PM

82kt flight level eastern side of the core. I think that’s one of the highest so far

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 25-Aug-20 11:11 PM

5 mb in 2.5 hours, impressive

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 11:12 PM

77 knots SFMR too

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:14 PM

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/202013L_wind_ssmis.gif

DVORAK just came in at 90kts

storm surge will be into downtown lake charles

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:15 PM

I think this calls for...the music... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbxdyg5IvV0

Vlad Florestal

The Weather Channel - "Storm Alert" Local Forecast

This amazing song, "Storm Alert" by Stephen Arnold, was featured on The Weather Channel. From 2005 - 2008. It was heard whenever a Hurricane Watch and or Warning is issued to any part of the country. The song is typically heard during the Local on The 8s. There is no voice ov...

4

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:18 PM

Center drop was 981 at 16kt. So ~978-979. Pretty much same as last fix

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:20 PM

https://twitter.com/matthewcappucci/status/1298435170715017219?s=21

Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci)

Things are getting real in Port Arthur, Texas, where a mandatory evacuations is in effect. Businesses are shuttered and even gas stations are closed down. A true testament to how serious the situation is? The ever-illuminated Waffle House sign went dark. @capitalweather htt...

Likes

182

3

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:21 PM

Outflow to the NW looks like trash right now. Looks fine everywhere else

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:24 PM

i think we have a little dry air comgin in from the NW> there is lightning in the SE quad wrapping around. that's probably from dry air being sucked in

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:26 PM

Going to be a long day tomorrow...

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:26 PM

IR getting there right now.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Aug-20 11:26 PM

Good thing I'm stocked up on coffee...

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:27 PM

Get your sleep while you can...

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Aug-20 11:27 PM

sleep now. GOing to be a long night Wednesday.

5

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 11:29 PM

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1298460953764388864

Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx)

That dry air band that tried to disrupt #Laura has been blocked by strong convection, which means the TC can strengthen likely a little faster https://t.co/TPElg0MUhz

5

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 25-Aug-20 11:30 PM

Laura said gtfo of here dry air

Ain't havin it

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 25-Aug-20 11:34 PM

Looks like this buoy might have recorded a rogue wave

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 25-Aug-20 11:35 PM

Was going to do a live forecast discussion on hail trace from our hotel but decided we’re hitting the hay early. Tomorrow is going to be a long one

4

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:38 PM

I’m not sure what that dude was tweeting about cuz the dry air isn’t cut off. Center of circulation is at the X. It’s very open to the dry air band.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Aug-20 11:39 PM

I am pretty sure the center is where that red dot is

But I am a noob at this, so I am probably wrong

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 11:49 PM

It's not that far west

Plot out the 11PM position, it's near the middle of the CDO

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM

It’s not the red dot. It’s that far west per ADT. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt13L.html

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM

ADT just uses center interpolation which is outdated and in this case off

We have much more recent recon fixes

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM

ADT has been useless for this storm so far.

Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 25-Aug-20 11:50 PM

uh, no, this thing does not have an exposed center

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:53 PM

It’s definitely not that far west

You can watch it donut in the last 20 or so frames on the slider site.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 25-Aug-20 11:55 PM

Using the last center fix ~89.5W, 25N, that blue x is where the center is. The IR image is from 0247, about the time of the center pass

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Aug-20 11:57 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008260300.gif

she's close to cat 2

RIPA has 50/50 odds of 115 kts at max vel

expect the forecast creep to continue

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 12:14 AM

80 kt SFMR

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 12:23 AM

Absolutely rapid!!!

Ok I'm really glad the border is closed because it definitely saved my life

I was gonna be going to Lake Charles at some point

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:27 AM

Actually I changed my mind after looking at SRM. @Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) is right.

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 12:35 AM

Sustained winds of 49 knots at buoy 42001. Gusts up to 58 knots

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:36 AM

The reason ADT was doing bad early on with this was because the circulation wasn’t stacked. Circulation on satellite tends to be mid level, not low level. Now that the storm is vertically stacked ADT should do a much better job.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:54 AM

Aye, you can now see it colocated on low, mid and high WV channels

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:31 AM

68 knot wind gust at buoy 42001

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:32 AM

dualing towers with lightnign on E and W sides. it's on folks

levi clocks this in at 1.7 mb / hour. which is bomb worthy. 40mb / day. 940 landfall at this MODERATE rate

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:33 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:50 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/748052828597125162/EE999DF3A7D28A4D0FFBF025FC487A29.png

VDM that got lost somewhere

24 n miles wide eye with it open to the east

93 knot flight level winds

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1298498923821056001?s=21

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Hurricane #Laura Advisory 25A: Laura Rapidly Intensifying. Expected to Produce a Life-Threatening Storm Surge, Extreme Winds, and Flash Flooding Over Eastern Texas and Louisiana Later Today. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

5

105 mph category 2 hurricane

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 02:00 AM

It's at 90kts already??

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:00 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:01 AM

Apparently there’s an AF plane out there but it’s not being transmitted publicly

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 02:01 AM

Upper air or low level?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:03 AM

Low level

That’s how they came to the 105 mph conclusion

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 02:05 AM

Why's it not being transmitted?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:06 AM

No idea

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:18 AM

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020 A. 26/05:08:50Z B. 25.38 DEG N 089.98 DEG W C. 700 MB 2922 M D. 979 MB E. 120 DEG 4 KT F. OPEN E G. C20 H. 85 KT I. 078 DEG 26 NM 05:01:00Z J. 157 DEG 91 KT K. 079 DEG 30 NM 05:00:00Z L. 86 KT M. 046 DEG 28 NM 05:20:00Z N. 140 DEG 104 KT O. 046 DEG 33 NM 05:21:30Z P. 12 C / 3049 M Q. 15 C / 3054 M R. 10 C / NA S. 1234 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 NM U. AF309 1913A LAURA OB 31 MAX FL WIND 104 KT 046 / 33 NM 05:21:30Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 047 / 7 NM FROM FL C

104 knot Flight level wind

8

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:22 AM

Well I thought it might pass Hanna a little before I went to bed but not by so much. Didn't see that coming so quickly

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:31 AM

At long last, looks to be an actual eye forming

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:40 AM

https://tenor.com/view/oh-snap-surprise-shocked-johncena-gif-5026702

oooooh snap

105mph has already invalidated half of the current intensity models

basically we're down to euro, hwrf, hmon, gfs, ctx, all of which are thinking upper cat 3 / cat 4

ships still gives cat 5 a shot, with cat 4 being better odds than not

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:09 AM

I'm not going to be surprised if I wake up to a 100kt+ major hurricane

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 03:52 AM

Is that the eye finally?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:45 AM

I went to bed when it was at 80 mph and woke up to a 105 category 2 hurricane

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:49 AM

Won't be surprised if it is a Category 3 since the cloud tops are wrapping around the eye so quickly.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:03 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:16 AM

...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 90.7W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.72 INCHES

Also that windfield is massive

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 05:36 AM

(edited)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:02 AM

It doesnt appear as a cat 4 landfall at least

Itll be affected by shear shortly before landfall so theres that

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:21 AM

Morning y’all. Just catching up on this girl.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:22 AM

She exploded overnight, on the verge of being a major.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:26 AM

Damn

I saw it coming though.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:36 AM

I’m getting a quick shower then I’ll set up my laptop so I can see visible satellite

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:37 AM

969

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:38 AM

“69”

Still dropping though

So what was the last measurement before that and when?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:45 AM

SFMR ~97 kt, plus the structure of deep spiraling bands wrapping all around the eye. We've got our first major. Probably will be bumped to 115 next update.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:49 AM

Here we go.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:49 AM

Apparently Larua expected to be Cat4?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:50 AM

Other recon also gets SFMR of at least 97 kts, flight level near 100 knots.

This thing went from a TS to a Cat 3 in 24 hours.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:52 AM

That’s what we call RI

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:53 AM

Sounds like a Harvey. Harvey went from Cat1 to Cat4 in 24 hours

Good ol GoM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:54 AM

Another reason to hate GoM other than Dixie screamers in winter.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:54 AM

Yep lol. Why my parents are thinking of moving lol.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:56 AM

Some weakening just before landfall could be good news, but its still gonna have extreme impacts

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:56 AM

Decent looking also with Satellite

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:57 AM

Really waiting for the sun to rise on it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:57 AM

At this point it doesn't even matter, we are going to have a landfalling major at this point, any weakening before landfall will be minor since it is going to only hit the shear shortly before landfall.

3

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM

Yeah, there isn't much difference between 130 and 120

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM

There kinda is.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM

o?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:58 AM

Well with wind yes that's pretty huge lol.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:59 AM

Wind load differences between windspeeds drastically increases once you get past 100 mph

It's on an exponential curve

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:59 AM

hmm didn't think of that as much

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:03 AM

What intrigues me is the amount of lightning in her overnight, both in her core and outer bands. Laura throughout her entire lifespan so far has had more lightning than any other TC I've ever tracked, truly been incredible amounts.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:04 AM

Really? I’ve been sleeping through that!

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 07:05 AM

Lets get into the 950's

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:05 AM

This was from an earlier frame: There were multiple big clusters of lightning like this overnight.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:05 AM

And yeah wind load is exponential. Thus, Hackleburg EF-5 is multiple times more powerful than Cookeville EF-4. Just wind load...

Wow lot of lightning for a TC. Matthew was one of lightning producers too.

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 07:15 AM

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1298577588227538945?s=21

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

A buoy in the northeast eyewall of #Laura measured a wind gust of 107 mph at 4:40am central time.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:22 AM

I have visible up so we wait.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:42 AM

Lightnings are still ongoing in both inner and outer bands

I have both visible and infrared up.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 07:52 AM

**..POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... 7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 26.4°N 91.4°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 963 mb Max sustained: 115 mph

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:53 AM

Wow. Went from a TS to a 3 in 24 hours. The GOMEX never ceases to amaze me.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 07:55 AM

Is it not a 4 yet?

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 07:58 AM

Cat 3. It dropped 5mb in an 1:05 between recon passes so it’s deepening. Really needs it’s eye cleared out before running at 4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:59 AM

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1298580219218079744?s=21 Regardless of the eye clearing out, this thing will be a 4 by the end of the day. It’s a mid-grade 3 already.

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Latest recon data shows #Laura's central pressure is falling at a tremendous rate this morning, down 5-7 hPa in ~1 hour, indicating rapid intensification.

Retweets

123

Likes

264

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:03 AM

Eye is still clouded over, but I can see the hint of it.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 08:04 AM

I'd say the eye will probably be pretty clear by noon

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:24 AM

Still cloudy, but I can see subtle hint of it.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 08:24 AM

https://twitter.com/matthewcappucci/status/1298596791282212864?s=21

Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci)

Laura is still rapidly intensifying. Recent data suggests pressures may be as low as 952 millibars, with winds measured at 125 mph by recent reconnaissance.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:31 AM

Pet peeve: when public facing people tweet out the flight level wind like it’s at the surface and used extrapolated pressures when there’s a perfectly good dropsonde. Wait a couple minutes for the VDM and use the real data. Very few in the public will understand what they are looking at in that chart anyway, and probably will assume it’s surface winds. /end rant

The surface estimate never exceeded 100kt on that pass. This storm is not 125mph

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:33 AM

Hmmm... I see your point

TC isn't my strongest area, but I can see what you're saying now. I'm not as familiar with TC data and measurements as I am with severe weather. @Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) (edited)

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 08:36 AM

Eyewall coming into view of the radar out of lake Charles

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:36 AM

I’m not super strong at TCs but have done some stuff with them. I know enough to know who on Twitter not to trust.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:37 AM

Lmao. I quit Twitter a few months ago, not just because of WxTwitter.

However, I know a few people who are really great with TCs.

Dr. Jonathan Vigh is one of researchers who maintains archive of FLIGHT+ data at NCAR if you know some people at NCAR. @Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:40 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008261200.gif

Waiting for an update and this will go up even more

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:41 AM

Buoy 42395 is incredible. Waves as high as 38 feet being recorded.

Sustained winds of near 80 mph and gusts to near 110 mph

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:42 AM

She's forecast now to max at 115kts. But RIPA says she can make 130kts today.

She doesn't even have a solid max cold band yet

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:43 AM

Last recon pass showed maybe an early sign of an EWRC

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:43 AM

I don’t know too many people at NCAR. I mainly know grad students and post docs. Some good TC follows on twitter: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits https://twitter.com/JackSillin

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Meteorologist @UMiamiRSMAS and CIMAS supporting @HRD_AOML_NOAA. Opinions are mine alone.

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Jake Carstens (@JakeCarstens)

Meteorologist and @floridastate Ph.D. candidate, researching tropical convection and hurricane formation. Illinois native and somewhat okay golfer.

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11027

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Jack Sillin | weather.us (@JackSillin)

Weather Forecasting | Blogging + Tweeting for @WeatherdotUS | Studying the atmosphere @CornellWeather (‘22) | Admiring nature, especially in the mountains

Tweets

32868

Followers

10902

https://twitter.com/webberweather

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

An occasionally esoteric UNC-Charlotte Graduate Student w/ a preference for climate dynamics, tropical phenomena, & winter storms. NC State Alum (BS).

Tweets

31148

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:44 AM

24 hours is an eternity to complete an ERC. If she starts now she'll be done before landfall

Could end up with a speed max right at landfall like Michael

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:45 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748158644163706980/Screenshot_20200826-083359_Chrome.jpg

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:45 AM

Perhaps... honestly it have been behaving like Michael (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:45 AM

Can see a double wind maxima in the NE quad. Not showing up in the other quads yet

Also could be something unrelated, I guess we will see (edited)

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 08:47 AM

I think most of the buoy cameras are damaged

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:48 AM

I’m not sure if it’s actually an ERC yet. It may be a function of the storm still organizing. SW quad looks like a bit of a double max but I think the eyewall hasn’t gotten super organized

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:48 AM

Not yet... give it some time. I’m on mobile now so forgive me for typos.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:06 AM

Great news...landfall expected during high tide...

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:08 AM

Add /s

That’s perfect timing/s

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:09 AM

122 knots flight level in the north eyewall

99 knots SFMR

FL winds continue to increase quite rapidly

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:19 AM

103 knots SFMR found now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:20 AM

green bar, RI20/12 well within reach. RIPA has it on it's forecast now. https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/ripafcst/2020al13_ripafcst_000000000000.gif

hmmm, that's the old graphic. seems discord isn't loading the new one. might have to click link

last nights euro operational model. near cat 5 at landfall after an EWRC

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:26 AM

I’m amazed we don’t have an eye clearing yet

And it’s nearly cat 4

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM

WISC tropical site is down. bummer

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM

RIP WISC

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 09:28 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298609530717298688?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

As a few others have mentioned, recon just found 122 knot flight level winds in the northern semicircle of #Laura's eyewall, which would support an intensity of 110 KTS, meaning that #Laura is almost a category 4 hurricane already. Wut

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:29 AM

HMON still calling for borderline cat 5 landfall. HWRF as mid-cat-4

euro is in between as a high 4

i...really dont have anything to compare this storm to

it's bigger than michael in size, and will likely be a much more impactful with it's surge

so it's a katrina/michael hybrid. which should scare the shit out of anyone in SW LA

1

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:36 AM

Ooh yeah that would scare the crap out of SW LA... hopefully enough to get them to evacuate

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:41 AM

surge damange potential rating (based on NHC's forecast, which is low) has laura as 3.6 out of 6. katrina was a 5.2

rita, for reference was a 2.9

so more surge than rita, but less than katrina. more wind damgae than katrina.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:05 AM

959mb from hunters

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:13 AM

952.9 mb extrap. See what the dropsonde gets

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:22 AM

whoops

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 10:23 AM

Oops! I went through Hannas eye last month, but for various reasons have no interest attempting to chase this beast.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:25 AM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:25 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:26 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748186422271279155/unknown.png

3

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:26 AM

Wow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:27 AM

I saw hurricane man is hanging well outside the eye zone right now. He might have to re think intercepting this one

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:27 AM

I haven't been following along here lately, but is recon finding the winds catching up with the pressure falls at all? (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:27 AM

That is a very solid band of pain

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:28 AM

There has been some large pressure drops, but the winds haven't responded much

Pressure went down, what... 10 mb, winds went up 5 mph to make it a Cat 3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:28 AM

Winds aloft are not mixing down to the surface yet. 122kts max so far, so that's about 105-110 surface, but not found by drops yet

So the storm still isn't matured. The eye isn't even clear yet. 6-12 hours before a fully mature storm. Might get interrupted by an ewrc. Cycling during landfall is best case scenario

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:33 AM

Well this escalated

3

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:39 AM

Gov. Edwards just announced on TWC talking about storm surge could get to 20 feet.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:40 AM

i told yall 50 miles inland. look at the surge charts. getting close to 50 miles

lake charles about to become a saltwater bay

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:41 AM

hats approaching Ike surge there

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:41 AM

This is bad! This storm is huge too.

1

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 10:41 AM

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1298621185903726592?s=21

Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus)

On the left, the HWRF model from three days ago. (when Hurricane #Laura was still a tropical storm off the coast of Haiti) On the right, the satellite image from 23 minutes ago. Science works.

Likes

104

5

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:43 AM

https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1298626818539507713

Scot Pilie' (@ScotPilie_Wx)

Roads are blocked from coastal flooding/storm surge by Madison Canal in Montegut, below the flood wall. Third picture is water in Grand Isle.

Nicole Marie & Joseph Woll @HankAllenWX @WGNOtv @NWSNewOrleans

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:49 AM

@Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) based on kinetic energy models, this storm is significantly more poweful than IKE for surge. but not as strong as katrina

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 10:52 AM

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...ONLY A FEW HOURS REMAIN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY... 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 27.0°N 92.0°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:52 AM

145 mph peak now

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:52 AM

Unreal

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:53 AM

Good lord

Ain't ideal

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:55 AM

high tide + nocturnal maximum + finishing RI cycle

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:56 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748194062322106459/091953_peak_surge.png

15-20 foot surge

6

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:57 AM

btw, if you are a local, its pronouced kal-ka-shoo

im sure they will screw it up on the news

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:58 AM

oh god

this is off the chain for a 145 peak

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 10:59 AM

she did a 27mb/12hr RI.

RIPA says she's got another 20mb left in her

55/48 was in the forecast, so borderline cat 5 is still in the ballpark

"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline."

6

2

hurricane man better find high ground in lake chalres, that's his only shot of getting eye and not being dead

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:14 AM

Reed's plan is to head...

Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 11:15 AM

how is the fact that this part of TX/LA is swampland going to affect the cane?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:18 AM

Swampland= more area for surge to cover

Since they’re pretty low lying barely 10-20 feet above sea level

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:20 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748199579681423391/image0.jpg

Very very potent drop

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:22 AM

Is it just me or did the hurricane just jog west rather sharply the last several frames of the GOES image? You can see it on IR (edited)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:22 AM

kind of appears that way

perhaps just a wobble

Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 11:23 AM

Yeah ive seen some people discussing the westward jog

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:23 AM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/736244968238088282/748198059275583488/image0.jpg

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:24 AM

we're now into wobble mode. the storm is strong enough to make it's own path. shear will only impact it a little at a time

Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 11:24 AM

Yep she's just going to do what she wants now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:25 AM

as the storm gets closer, lake charles will become part of the gulf. landfall won't occur for an extra 1-2 hours, because there will be no long to fall on

so landfall will cross the coast around 1am, but there will be no coast there, so it will hit dry land around 3am

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:25 AM

Going to be a long day boys...

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 11:26 AM

Air Force recon now en route

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 11:26 AM

So with the surge inundating 20-30 miles inland, will that let her strengthen or maintain itself better? Or no because it'll be shallow water?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:26 AM

she should maintain or strengthen all the way until lake charles

unless she is mid-EWRC i dont expect her to drop until at she's above 20ft elevation

brown ocean will turn into actual ocean

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:27 AM

Perhaps, power naps are just about a must

or maybe a 5 hour energy for those hardcore folks

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:33 AM

It's official. I can see the eye.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:34 AM

did i see a 115kt SFMR? 132mph? ugh

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:34 AM

Looks like COD is getting heavy traffic right now

Awesome.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 11:35 AM

From an hour ago. Just came in

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:35 AM

111 knot SFMR

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:36 AM

Dvorak CI at 6.0 RAW T store of 6.7

it's a cat 4 already. and it's moving quickly toward a mid-high cat 4

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/dgtldvor/2020al13_dgtldvor_202008261500.gif

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:37 AM

Close up view.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:37 AM

dvorak puts it near 120kts

IKE says its a cat 4: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008261500.gif

that ike calc is from 12z. it's likely much higher now. we could be looking at a cat 5 on the IKE scale.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:40 AM

Jesus that is some rapid intensification

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:41 AM

Talk about "some" intensification (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:42 AM

visible has the buzzsaw look in full effect

WV shows very strong towers on teh west side. towers /w lightning on the SE side

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:44 AM

One of cells in outer band got Special Marine on it for potential waterspout.

RIP Marco. It looks like Laura had eaten up what was left of Marco too. F for poor Marco.

1

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:46 AM

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1298646949093154816?s=21

Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman)

Chilling #Laura forecast for the Calcasieu River N of downtown Lake Charles, LA. Crest forecast to top the 1913 #flood of record by over 2 feet, during which "over half of the city" flooded, per NWS. And over 6 feet higher than Rita 2005 crest.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 11:46 AM

this is crazy

75 to 125 in under 24 hours

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 AM

That's 50 mph intensification.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:49 AM

there are dozens of oil refineries and chemical plants in that area. they will all be underwater. DEEP underwater

just like after harvey, some areas could be forced out for weeks due to chemical spills

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:50 AM

This is really bad.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:51 AM

port arthur up to lake charles is about to become a gianty watery superfund site

houston got really lucky in harvey. there was a benzene plant that was on fire and they managed to put the fire out before it went beirut

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:53 AM

Eye continues clear out, along with several hot towers in the eyewall

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:58 AM

There are a lot of thunderstorms in outer bands too

Interesting that Laura’s circulation had been kicking up thunderstorms in SE TX too

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:00 PM

Getting ridiculous out there, really scary situation boutta be unfolding

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:02 PM

115kts dropsonde. 951 mb

also, TORNADOES gonna be a big deal

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 12:07 PM

https://twitter.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1298644335274139649

Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX)

Here's some real talk. If a 145-mph Laura were to make landfall in Freeport or San Luis pass, Houston as we know it would be pretty much gone. Surge inundating Galveston Bay, energy assets. Wind damage across the entire city. Power outages for weeks to months. We are unprepar...

Retweets

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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:27 PM

At the rate it's organizing we will only be a little short of keeping the dubious category five landfall streak going, not fun

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:28 PM

dvorak peak at 6.7 earlier isnt' far from 7.0 the typical cat 5 handoff. winds obviously will take time to catch up to the convection, but its possible

coldest cloud tops nearly all the way arouhd now. with intense towers in the east quad /w lightning

it's still doing RI (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:29 PM

I obviously don't wanna explicitly call for it since it's pretty unprecedented but hell so was Michael

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:30 PM

it might actually be head of michael in maturity at this point. so we'll probably get an EWRC before landfall. and that might save it from cat 5

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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:31 PM

1

Here's hoping, looking for anything to temper the beast at this point

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:32 PM

the eyewall forecast says odds of replacement start going up around 9pm. odds of an eye remaining go down to 75%

50% odds of replacement by 12am

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 12:36 PM

A double wind maxima might make the extent of wind and surge a little higher while tempering the maximum of course

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 12:37 PM

Wait....we can predict EWRC's now?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:42 PM

there is a forecast run off the GFS that simulates odds of an eye based on current obs + climatology. has a decent skill.

1

previously trying to figure out EWRC's was done based on visual examination of microwave and IR sate images. which you can still do

microwave looking very solid atm: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/amsusr89/2020al13_amsusr89_202008261241.gif

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 12:50 PM

Not sure if it was stated earlier, but this is the largest intensification in such a short period of time since Katia in 2017 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298643697156816901?s=20

Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach)

#Laura's winds have intensified by 35 mph in the past 12 hr - the fastest 12-hr intensification rate for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico since Katia in September 2017 - which also intensified 35 mph in 12 hr. #hurricane #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/6ESZEt9o46

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Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 12:53 PM

Crazy hot tower swung around the east side of the eye. Had plenty of lighting

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 12:53 PM

if the eye can tighten up a bit. we'll get a big boost in winds and pressure

looks like it might be trying

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 12:54 PM

How frequently are recon planes flying into it today?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 12:57 PM

Another one is on the way in now.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:01 PM

Could Laura's outflow disrupt any wind shear

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:02 PM

Laura is big enough to ignore most wind shear at this point. She will induce her own high pressure aloft

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:03 PM

Saw some tweet about it not being impacted by wind shear in the near term, just not sure considering I haven't heard a lot of talk on it

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:03 PM

She ain’t got flying frick to give about the shear anymore (edited)

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1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:03 PM

Very intense storms tend to burn themselves out due to cold water or land. Not shear

Laura is going fast enough it ignore upwelling. Which did in Dorian. So only land will stop her

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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM

Patricia experiences very rapid intensification, but quickly snuffed out by Mexico’s terrains right after landfall. Patricia was small though.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM

Or EWRC

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM

wow

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:05 PM

EWRC only temporarily weaken the TC

So best hope is EWRC during landfall. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM

Yea, but if it hits right at landfall...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM

Ewrc remember, doesn't weaken the energy, just the speed. It spreads the energy out further.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM

The unknown is when the eyewall replacement cycle occurs

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM

Yes, EWRC at landfall is best hope at this point

What are things to look for that will show it is potentially starting?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:06 PM

This storm is already large and has an IKE rating a full category higher than saffir simpson

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:07 PM

How long EWRC would last? Usually

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:07 PM

6-24 hours. Most likely to begin after 9pm

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:08 PM

Hopefully... when she’s forecast to make landfall?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:09 PM

The eye is fully visible on radarscope now

What are the signs to look for, when a hurricane starts an EWRC?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:10 PM

microwave will show a second layer of wall begin to form. you'll get secondary peaks of wind on recon passes

you wont notice on satellite until the eye starts to cloud over

there were soem secondary peaks this morning, but the microwave wall remained intact

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:11 PM

is there any way to tell how long it might take?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:11 PM

not really but at thsi point, if it starts an EWRC this evening, it will landfall before it finishes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:12 PM

So here is hoping we see it some time at or after 9pm

3

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:13 PM

New recon is already finding hurricane force winds 100 miles from the center

5

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 01:14 PM

https://twitter.com/RobMarciano/status/1298667762693308421

Rob Marciano (@RobMarciano)

Brownsville NWS has taken over all forecast operations from LCH — Lake Charles NWS has left the building.

2

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:16 PM

Laura: grows to Cat 4 and starts menacing the S LA/E TX NWS Lake Charles mets: ight imma head out (edited)

6

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:17 PM

To quote Monty Python: "Run Away"

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM

https://tenor.com/view/forrest-running-gif-5144739

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM

I can imagine flooding could literally reach their office unless it's especially high ground

1

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM

https://tenor.com/view/run-away-run-escape-chase-leave-gif-4927885

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:18 PM

Lake Charles is pretty low af which makes sense for the mets to evacuate ahead of surge.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM

https://tenor.com/view/aight-imma-head-out-im-out-this-bitch-bye-gif-15194343

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM

So when is the NHC going to have its next update

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM

40 minutes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM

Can you check microwave on COD? I don't see it

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:20 PM

Probably more like 30

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:21 PM

They might post it early if recon finds something ridiculous but might just wait til the usual time since it's close

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:24 PM

131 knots Flight level

116 knots SFMR

8

Definitely will have at least a 130 mph category 4 at the top of the hour

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:24 PM

Definitely c4 upgrade incoming

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:24 PM

What are the odds that Lake Charles radar gets taken out, its not far from the coastline

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 01:25 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:25 PM

And it might be higher, 116 was the last one reported so far

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:25 PM

For reference, 133 mph (116 knots) is 0.18 Mach...

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:32 PM

Um... I think eye is shrinking a little from satellite

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:33 PM

sure looks like it

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:33 PM

Yep. Saw that in both visible and infrared. Still intensifying.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 01:33 PM

121 knots SFMR

That would put it at 140 mph

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 01:35 PM

Damn wasn't that the peak intensity forecast in the last official update?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:35 PM

welcome to cat 4 boys

145 was the max forecast. let's pump it up

6

Lake Charles right now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XB401RfGMlM

Movieclips

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GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:37 PM

https://tenor.com/view/filthy-frank-screaming-confused-confused-screaming-gif-15736028

Lake Charles right now

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 01:39 PM

Going to bed to a cat 1, waking up to a solid cat 4, definitely a reason to evacuate early

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:40 PM

Lake Charles when Laura hits Cat 4 after going to bed with Cat 1

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 01:41 PM

the meme game in here right now is solid rn

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:41 PM

i think we're near peak right now. good thunder activity yes, but there is warming in the SE eyewall

replacemetn might be a bit early, but this could complete before landfall, now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:42 PM

And there is no way to get a hint at how long that might take?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:42 PM

So you're saying we're probably seeing EWRC? I also saw eye shrinking a little too.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM

microwave is a little sloppy right now: could be a sign of EWRC https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/amsusr89/2020al13_amsusr89_202008261605.gif

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM

Recon saw no double wind maxima so not yet

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LAURA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... ...LITTLE TIME REMAINS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

`

1

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM

Solid Cat 4

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:43 PM

Sorry I'm late to the party but yeah Laura is a biggirl

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:44 PM

her original name was big chungus when she was a wave

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:44 PM

I think her full name is Laura Big Chungus

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 01:45 PM

Oh so Luara was the big wave that came off last week? Man she grew up into a monster but had a feeling.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:45 PM

Laura B.C.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:45 PM

extra thicc cane

5

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM

oh my god

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM

How do you view the microwave?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM

Some peeps are saying it already might've done a merging EWRC earlier today

So if that happened it's unlikely we'll get another

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM

Welcome to the weird world, Jaden

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:47 PM

there is a microwave availble from RAMMB, and another from WISC, but wisc is down

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 01:48 PM

Final T rn is 6.5

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:49 PM

Lightning is still there on the east side of eye

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 01:51 PM

It would be interesting to see satellite of Big Chungus wave -> C4 Laura

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:51 PM

The full loop

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:51 PM

Hope my TX buds are safe I might give a phone call to my Pearland bud

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 01:52 PM

I think Houston area may just be missing it but have some strong winds.

And man my poor old undergrad town. Nacogdoches gonna get hit by atleast a cat 1.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:55 PM

Is there livestreaming

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:56 PM

You can pay $10 a month and get HurricaneTrack cameras and sensors

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:56 PM

new towers on the N and S eyewalls, /w lightning. i don't see any signs of an EWRC yet. just a momentary breathe before it CHUNGAS again

5

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

CHUNGAS lmao

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

Laura Big Chungas, full name

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

I can see that on satellite too (edited)

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

Seems like the pressure declines have slowed down?

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

I'm dumb EWRC?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

Eye wall replacement cycle

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:57 PM

Oh right yeah duh

DuRr

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 01:58 PM

big chugus vs shear: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOY5TfmfO5Q&list=LLMNOMulcSBDomSNuNbFajHQ&index=6

HELLO THERE

BIG CHUNGUS Vs. THANOS | Phase 1: Episode 1

You read the name.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM

Once I'm done with this PD I'm gonna pop over to Weather and watch a stream

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM

Laura B. Chungas

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM

yup

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 01:59 PM

That perfectly describes her vs wind shear

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:00 PM

THIS IS YOUR LAST CHANCE. . .

7

5

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM

Christ that is foreboding

God hurricanes made me so worried for folks that are stuck

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM

https://tenor.com/view/run-away-run-escape-chase-leave-gif-4927885

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM

The is the strongest wording I've seen in awhile from the NHC.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:01 PM

Godspeed those who cant leave. Yeah holy shit NHC

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:04 PM

Wait is that ironic that Laura is the only TC sitting out of both GoM and Atlantic?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:04 PM

@Zach E (Lakeville, MN) is that in the advisory?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:04 PM

Like nothing else in the basin

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 02:05 PM

Oh.

8

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 02:06 PM

I'd say 50/50 odds of that thing remaining usable after this.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:06 PM

@Zach E (Lakeville, MN) Where did you find this? I'm looking at NHC page

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:07 PM

Yeah I’m looking for it too

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:10 PM

I'm looking for it

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:11 PM

65 mph increase in 24 hours is just insane

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 02:11 PM

It looks like something that wasn't actually posted by the NHC, honestly.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:12 PM

Is it from a local weather office?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:12 PM

I looked at NHC and I don't think I can find it... so maybe not^

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM

https://tenor.com/view/zero-gif-4984820

zero hero

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM

it wasn't apparently someone was passing down false information though still this is very dangerous situation.

1

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM

Apparently the "this is your last chance" thing isn't legit

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM

What Laura did^

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:13 PM

as in not from a weather office

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM

Not from local weather office either so try be careful next time. Make sure it's legit.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM

I'll chill here, DiW is a mess right now, a lot of overhype in there..

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM

DiW?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM

Direct Wx

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:14 PM

Ah... I see

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM

There's SO MUCH traffic that WN is down

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM

F for WN

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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM

I hope COD stays up

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM

Goodness

I hope the NHC website can handle all this traffic

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:15 PM

I am sure it is designed to handle the traffic

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 02:16 PM

TT might be having trouble right now, no recon data in the past 25 minutes, can't load new sat images (edited)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:16 PM

Even if it was misinformation, I hope it still encourage people to evacuate regardless. I'm not a fan of misinformation myself.

Laura is no joke.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM

AWIPS went down earlier too, i'd assume from increased traffic

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Tropical-storm-force winds have reached the coast of Louisiana and an observing site at Eugene Island recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). and its 12-14 hours from landfall

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Still no signs of an EWRC

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:18 PM

We are hoping for no signs of EWRC until at or after 9pm

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:18 PM

@Zach E (Lakeville, MN) I think "This is your last chance" is probably misinformation, but I hope that would encourage people to evacuate anyway sooo... I'm not as mad with that one as I would be for most of misinformation situations.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:18 PM

we will see coastal erosion unlike anything we've seen before in the US. 12 hours of bashing over a very vulnerable area. katrina was bad for erosion. we're gonna have a new coastline.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 02:19 PM

Yeah I found out and deleted my post

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:20 PM

I removed my comments myself (edited)

Thanks Satan though. (If that encouraged anyone to evacuate still) (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:22 PM

eye is cleaned up. towers are cooling again, and the black circle of death is filling in.

dvorak will likely spike again. presentation would indicate another 5-10mph of strengething

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM

oh lord twitter.....

5

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM

That's jumping the gun.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM

Aw shut up Twitter

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:24 PM

This will continue into the afternoon

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:25 PM

"what are those?"

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:28 PM

Man I doubt Laura is gonna be a honker C5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM

we all doubted michael too. if you recall

SHIPS gives is a 10-12% chance still

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM

Watch this be another 155 mph cat 4 that gets upgraded post analysis

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM

Everyone always takes notice when there's a shot of

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM

Honestly, wouldn't surprise me if Laura does get to 140kts just before landfall

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:29 PM

Still got 20 knots to go

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM

With how Laura is intensifying, 20kts isn't a problem

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM

Is the pressure still dropping?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM

I can tie like, two knots a minute and I'm way weaker than a hurricane

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM

Did we have like a C4 hit C5 for like two mins and dropped once it hit landfall thought that was the norm?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM

Pressure is at 953 mb as of a dropsonde 50 minutes ago

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:30 PM

ships this morning, starting at 100kts: 45kt / 36h 34.3% 9.9% 22.1%. 145kts had a 34.3% chance

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:31 PM

That eye continues to clear out

Is it just me, or did the eye expand slightly?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:31 PM

the ONLY negative factors this morning for RI, where that it was already a cat 3, and that it was too big for quick RI

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM

If it she chonks out C5 she won’t sustain it

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM

Due to landfall

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM

yeah, it would have to be a quick burst, like michael, and yes, landfall.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM

Yeah glad we’re on the same page

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:32 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:33 PM

Why wouldn't she sustain it, aside from land

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:33 PM

Laura would sustain CAT5 intensity for at least 30 minutes+

If it's able to attain it more than 25-50 miles from the coast

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:35 PM

I will be interested in the next NHC update, the European model sure looks interesting

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:36 PM

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1298670340235640832?s=21 4mb off.....

Sam Lillo (@splillo)

Minimum pressure in the center of Laura was 990mb at 18z yesterday. "Rapid Deepening" is defined as pressure falling at least 42mb in 24 hours. There are only 25 Atlantic hurricanes on record that have met this criteria. Laura just needs to reach 948mb to qualify.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:36 PM

Laura still has another 12 hours before landfall, this could be interesting

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:37 PM

Looks like Laura fell just shy of that

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:38 PM

She is just to big

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:38 PM

yup she's been going at about 1.7 mb/ hr. which isn't even RI. it's just moderate I. but she's been doing it non-stop

RI often looks like a sawblade, pulse, pause, pulse, etc

but she's just a line straight up (and right i guess?) (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:40 PM

Which is scary to think about

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:40 PM

here we go, she finally took a breather: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008261800.gif

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:40 PM

Off topic but I would love to be in a Hurricane Hunter t b h

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM

On my bucket list for life

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM

18z was the first time she had lost kinetic energy since about 60 hours before

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM

Would she get it back

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:41 PM

well, its now about 20z, and i would say she has, quickly, and then some

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

944.7 mb extrap

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

That’s 5 mb lower than the last extrap an hour ago

7

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

930s seems pretty likely at this point good lord

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

bad news old chaps. she's going annular

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

meaning?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:44 PM

look at the infrared. the black is going full-circle and spreading out

annular storms dont have discrete rainbands, they are just a wall of wind in a perfect cylinder

"storms attaining annular characteristics are less prone to weakening as a result of negative environmental factors. Annular cyclones can maintain their respective peak intensities for extended periods of time unlike their asymmetric counterparts."

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:46 PM

Laura is almost like a WPAC storm, not a typical compact gulf storm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:46 PM

https://twitter.com/Oakhurst_WX/status/1298692170422067201

Oakhurst_Wx RED MODE (@Oakhurst_WX)

According to Jeff Piotrowski there have been 911 calls from the Louisiana coast from chasers that are TRAPPED IN THEIR VEHICLES

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:47 PM

" the North Atlantic basin only exhibited conducive conditions for annular development 0.8 percent of the time"

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 02:48 PM

Fuck 2020

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:48 PM

Well the chasers definitely need to run to Rockport and grab Blue Shed to stay safe at this point

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:48 PM

The latest GOES image shows a perfectly round eye, just beautiful!

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 02:49 PM

annular storms are less susceptive to EWRCs, correct?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:49 PM

"Tropical cyclones can become annular as a result of eyewall mesovortices mixing the strong winds found in the eyewalls of storms with the weak winds of the eye, which helps to expand the eye. In addition, this process helps to make the equivalent potential temperature (often referred to as theta-e or {\displaystyle \theta {e}}\theta {e}) within the eye relatively uniform. This transition takes roughly 24 hours to complete and can be considered a type of eyewall replacement cycle"

if it truly is annular, it wont EWRC anymore, because it is just a giant eyewall

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:50 PM

It looks beautiful on Sat

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 02:50 PM

Sensor pack at the house has gone from 1022.2 to 1010.9 mb in an hour.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:50 PM

I wish I could upload a picture, but Discord doesn't let me upload. Someone should upload a true color image of it right now, emerging perfectly round eyewall. Just Beautiful! (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:51 PM

annual also means the storm will be very close to the Maximum potential intensity, or MPI. you'll see it on many products

MPI is usally some fantasy number that never gets reached. but it can in annulars

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 02:51 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298693663359471617

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Another 5mb drop since the last center pass ~80 minutes ago. #Laura still intensifying at a rapid pace.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:53 PM

I wish I could upload a picture, but Discord doesn't let me upload. Someone should upload a true color image of it right now, emerging perfectly round eyewall. Just Beautiful!

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 02:54 PM

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:54 PM

all the weather sites are slowing down. wisc is crashed. rammb is slow AF

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:54 PM

Im really concerned that this is gonna continue RI until landfall

2

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:55 PM

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1298695309321740290

James Spann (@spann)

Potential impact to Southwest Louisiana. Via NWS Brownsville, TX, covering for NWS Lake Charles (they abandoned their station earlier today due to safety concerns)

8

3

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:56 PM

Hopefully its not bad where it takes their office out of service for an extended period of time

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:56 PM

Bets on if the radar site survives?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM

I hope the dome doesn’t divorce the tower like from Maria

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM

Ongoing pandemic could exacerbate rescue and recovery after the storm passes

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM

we lost our NWS server site for 2 months due to the great bomb cyclone of 2019. was underwater

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 02:57 PM

Wow DP up to 84 from 73 at noon.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 02:58 PM

Meanwhile looks like Baton Rouge area is going nuts atm.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 02:58 PM

Just a few chasera showing up on SN on the beach, but looking at Google Street view there are no structures around that will survive this surge, so hopefully these idiots are bailing out soon

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 02:59 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748255042112454846/recon_AF307-2313A-LAURA_dropsonde6_20200826-1830.png

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 02:59 PM

The eye is really clearing out now, just amazing

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 03:00 PM

RIP those red dots

Gary Kogoy (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 26-Aug-20 03:01 PM

4 separate tornado warnings at once in the BR area, didn't see that one coming

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:02 PM

Apparently the chasers trapped are on 82

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 03:02 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1298696849696501760

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

2 PM CDT #Laura Update: Water levels beginning to rise along the coast of Louisiana. Aircraft reports pressure has fallen to 948 mb https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 03:03 PM

Rapid Deepening?

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 03:03 PM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) gotta be those few dots. Idiots. When Josh Morgerman is taking big cautions, that's a huge hint to stay the hell away

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 03:04 PM

Where morgerman at?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:04 PM

Here's hoping they don't become the big media story of the storm, like the Bounty Rescue...

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 03:05 PM

Welp, there it is. Laura officially rapidly deepened

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 03:06 PM

Well it’s an hour too late

It’s 19z

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:06 PM

@Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) I think you are right

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM

Confirmed tornado about 20 miles south of baton rouge

At 202 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near White Castle, or 7 miles south of Plaquemine, moving northwest at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado near Napleonville with this storm.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM

@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) last he updated he said he's considering staying on the TX side.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM

Oh wow

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:07 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.5 / 929.4mb/127.0kt

dvorak say its a borderline cat 5

2

Jack | (Findlay, OH) 26-Aug-20 03:08 PM

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1298697706932711425?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1298697706932711425%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fstorm2k.org%2Fphpbb2%2FEmbedTweet.html1298697706932711425

Tomer Burg (@burgwx)

Latest dropsonde indicates a minimum MSLP of 948 hPa, continuing Laura's rapid deepening. We're now up to a ~21 hPa decrease in 8:30 hours since this morning's first center pass. These plots are now updating on my site by demand: https://t.co/T3LMwEkg2r

Anthony R. (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 03:08 PM

https://www.wafb.com/live/

Watch Live Newscasts

Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 03:09 PM

Welp I am on call for tonight for any damage that may occur near me.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 03:09 PM

KPLC-TV Lake Charles is evacuating.

2

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 03:10 PM

holy cow

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:10 PM

DVORAK IKE estimates: IKETS(TJ) 118.545 SDP 5.119

5

according to dvorak, laura is now as powerful for surge as katrina

katrina was a 5.2. this is not good

Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 03:11 PM

Didn't Katrina have like 24 foot?

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM

I believe so

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM

camile was 24 feet. but it isn't about height. its about amount of water pushed over a huge area

Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM

surge flooding of 25-28 feet

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:12 PM

let me translate IKE for you: this storm has enough energy to push the same amount of water as katrina.

the surge damage potential goes up to 6. it's a 5.119. that's bad. very bad

no chaser in their right mind would have been south of i-10

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 03:14 PM

KPLC-TV Lake Charles is evacuating.

@Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) That's weird. KPLC is still streaming with people in their Lake Charles studio.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 03:14 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:15 PM

dvorak almost has the white loop complete: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/4kmsrbdc/2020al13_4kmsrbdc_202008261830.jpg

3

5

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:16 PM

Every frame is a little more yikes

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 03:19 PM

Tornado Watch forthcoming

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:21 PM

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1298701642292961280

Eric Fisher (@ericfisher)

This is what was left at Holly Beach when the 15-foot surge came through. Evacuation is the only thing to do with a storm like this.

This is what Holly Beach looked like after Rita in 2005

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:22 PM

Damn... I came back after 1 hour class to see all of this and what’s happening? Too much to read

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:23 PM

gl

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:23 PM

Just gonna completely fill phone memory with satellite pics at this point

1

Just visually spectacular, in a bit of a horrifying way

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:26 PM

rita had a surge dmage potential of 2.9 out of 6. DVORAK estimate says laura is a 5.1 katrina was 5.2

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:26 PM

Can anyone fill me in what happened in past 1 hr?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:26 PM

this will make rita look like a walk in the park

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:27 PM

Super shallow broad continental shelf in that area = big ol surge even with a lesser storm

Will be unimaginable sadly

Laura went even more beast mode happened

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 03:27 PM

Laura is giving me some Ike vibes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:28 PM

@GanondorfMain7606 The eye emerged. The storm may be going annular, which means no EWRC, just continued strengthening. ask @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:29 PM

Thanks! I was in class and it blew up with 100+ messages lol

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:30 PM

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1298702194754097153

Tyler Stanfield (@TylerJStanfield)

The eye of Hurricane #Laura warmed ~4°C between passes per recon. Such increased subsidence noted on IR and dropsonde could indicate that we may see a sharper drop in pressure soon. Given FL wind and dropsonde data, these pressure falls would allow a run at Category 5 intensi...

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:31 PM

Hard to believe we went 2008-2015 with no category fives honestly at this point with every major trying to make a run at it these days

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 03:31 PM

Tyler knows his stuff. I’m thinking he get high end Cat 4 but 5 definitely isn’t out of the question

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:32 PM

Any word on those trapped chasers?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 03:34 PM

I would have been skeptical of category five midday yesterday but today, yeah not even sure anymore, after Michael I probably wouldn't even be surprised

cricketkepler 26-Aug-20 03:36 PM

Waiting for all of the gas shortages and hysteria to start.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:36 PM

waiting for the housing crisis to begin. i work the in housing industry, and katrina is largely credited for being the straw that broke the camel's back by making 300000+ toxic mortgages

there are about 780,000 people that live in the impacted area. could be without power/water/house for weeks/months. small population than katrina, but they will be far more stranded

cricketkepler 26-Aug-20 03:39 PM

Sigh. So awful.

7

6

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 03:39 PM

Keep in mind it’s going to go inland as a hurricane and cause damage from winds and freshwater flooding all the way to the east coast, albeit spread over a wider area. (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:40 PM

I may have to drop down to southern IN/Northern KY to take a look

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:40 PM

look at the coldness of the fanning cloudtops on the SE quad. it's still getting stronger.

4

Jack | (Findlay, OH) 26-Aug-20 03:42 PM

Eye is warming...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:43 PM

so for annular storms, you might recall the 'ring of death' as i like to call it. the cold cloudtops that circle the storm on IR sat (edited)

3 levels, black ring of death, white ring of death, pink ring of death

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 03:43 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:43 PM

we're at black ring. IRMA was able to form a white ring. and patricia / haiyan had the pink ring

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:44 PM

https://www.wafb.com/live/ If you want to watch coverage out of Baton Rouge of the tornado warnings

Watch Live Newscasts

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:44 PM

I remember Haiyan ring of death... :/

I’m on mobile so forgive my typo (edited)

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:45 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1298706990475091968

NWS WPC (@NWSWPC)

A HIGH risk is in effect in our Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. More details: https://t.co/FQU5sb4jjg

High risk for rainfall

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 03:45 PM

https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1298707408772984832

NWS Tornado (@NWStornado)

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Louisiana and Texas until 9 PM CDT

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:47 PM

I really wish that there was a radar site near Baton Rouge

Recon's gonna make a pass from the SW to the NE

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:49 PM

Its going to get worse during the Piney Woods stage of Laura

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:49 PM

Piney Woods Stage?

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:50 PM

The thick pine forests of eastern Texas and western Louisana

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 03:50 PM

tree damage will be sigfnicant.

like ef3 tornado damage, but across 100's of miles. like iowa's derecho but worse

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 03:51 PM

Hail size up to no hail size...

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:51 PM

What parker said @GanondorfMain7606

Radar is very bad in that area.

My undergraduate was in Nacogdoches lmao.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 03:52 PM

The radar in Shreveport is down right now

1

Hopefully they can get it back online soon

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:53 PM

Great haha. Probably preparing for the storm tbh.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 03:55 PM

Gotcha

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 03:57 PM

I did a big project for the Caddo Mounds Tornado aka the Alto EF 3 where it was near impossible to see the Tornado in West Nacogdoches County.

James T. (Columbus Grove, OH) 26-Aug-20 03:57 PM

https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1298706384599552006

NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (@NOAA_HurrHunter)

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO - Inside the eye of CAT3 Hurricane #Laura during Aug. 26, 2020 morning mission aboard @NOAA WP-3D Orion #NOAA42 "Kermit." Credit: Nick Underwood, NOAA. Follow @NHC_Atlantic for latest forecast and advisories. #FlyNOAA https://t.co/IsgDcegmAQ

4

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:00 PM

“140”

Error?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:01 PM

It’s 140

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:01 PM

Yeah it's in the latest update text too

I think a run at Cat 5 isn't just a pipe dream now

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:03 PM

Yeah its 140 sustained atm

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM

I don't like curve on that as it is landfalling

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM

@Alex V (Wausau, WI) Nope... it’s officially 140 mph sustained

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM

no more swinging around please

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM

Last recon pass through the eyewall saw winds that high

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM

What? I know it went from 70-115 in 24 hours but how did it go from 115-140 in under 12 hours??

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:04 PM

Yep

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM

bathtub of mexico

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM

Can’t make this crap up

That’s the RI

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM

GoM is super toasty

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM

Also it’s down to 950 mb since last pass.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:05 PM

Steamy and toasty GoM

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 04:06 PM

Recon heading in for a SW to NE pass

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:06 PM

I should have known this would happen last night when I saw a little bit of dry air entrainment that was doing literally absolutely nothing to it.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:07 PM

Few days ago, if someone says Laura will be cat 4, we’d think he’s smoking some rock

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM

No way.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM

HWRF said it. and i told ya'll not to mess with HWRF

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM

I've seen it enough times

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM

Well at the very beginning when it was massive blob off of Africa I knew it was gonna be something big

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:08 PM

cloud tops warming on the W flank of the storm. looks like shear is finally doing SOMETHING

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:09 PM

TT having problems rn, still haven’t seen recon in for about 30 mins now

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:09 PM

Laura can still fight the shear though

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 04:10 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:10 PM

ships is in: don't count cat 5 out yet: RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 21.0% 17.2% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

ships officialy takes it to 145mph at 6pm

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 04:11 PM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:11 PM

12.8% chance for 35 kT/24 hr

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 04:11 PM

945 damn

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM

And still likely keep going.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM

945 at 60kts

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM

Without a rapid EWRC onset 930s is absolutely happening

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM

When is expected landfall?

Tonight?

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM

That’s still not to the center yet, might be down into 930s extrap by next update

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:12 PM

Maybe high 920s by landfall, I was thinking 950s yesterday lol

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

Are those thunderstorms around the eye even going to collapse

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

laura beat all of the RI forecasts: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/ripafcst/2020al13_ripafcst_000000000000.gif

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

I can't remember the extrapolation rate for sonde pressure

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

she's 10 kts higher or 6 hours earlier than every RI forecast that was made

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

EWRC at this point would begin too late to weaken it considerably by landfall.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

RI is very difficult to forecast

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:13 PM

^^^^^^^

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:14 PM

radius of maximum wind down to 16miles. it was 25 miles this morning

she's 'spinning in'

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:14 PM

Smaller eye^

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:14 PM

have noticed it shrinking on satellite

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Saw it too

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Fuck small eyes aren't good right?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Seems to be rotating significantly faster with every frame too

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Not a good sign

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Curious on what they find from the NE eyewall on this pass through

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Something something ice skater

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

Angular momentum

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

I don't know exactly, Dorian was the most impressive eye I ever saw

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:15 PM

conservation of angular momentum

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM

More narrow, faster spin

Broader, slower spin

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM

G2K

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM

Like a ballerina who tucks their arms in

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:16 PM

What can often happen too is that the eye expands again after intensifying (after shrinking) and brings those winds out further. It’s what happened with Irma.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:18 PM

FL winds higher by 5 knots than the last pass through there, but SFMR stayed the same

Down to 943 extrap

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:19 PM

Really no good scenario here, weaker broader wind field would still increase the area of surge

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:19 PM

It really is a lose/lose situation

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:20 PM

Hate to say but I don't think there's much of a Good Scenario here lmao.

4

Unless the storm just poofs and we all know that isn't happening.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:21 PM

best case scenario: GTFO of SW LA.

beaumont isnt in good shape either

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 04:22 PM

https://twitter.com/TWCParody/status/1298704058103074817

The Weather Channel (Parody) (@TWCParody)

#GetTheFuckOutofLouisiana

what this

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:22 PM

Were fucked

Silverton (Jonesboro, LA) 26-Aug-20 04:22 PM

idk if my house being on stilts is a good thing right now XD

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 04:25 PM

Eye is on radarscope, base velocity peaks around 157mph, I know it's not 100% accurate but damn

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 04:25 PM

Worse thing also I dont think either Lake Charles or Beaumont get the Eye break. I think both are on consistently in the eyewall

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:27 PM

flight level 157 minus 15mph = 142mph = sounds about right

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:29 PM

Watching Force 13 live stream on YT

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:29 PM

Yeah, they might go 145 next advisory, we’ll see

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:31 PM

Anyone interested in pop into WxDiscuss to talk about stuff with Laura, maybe later night

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:34 PM

947 sonde

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:35 PM

123 kts on this sonde at the surface, Cat 5 winds at 937 (edited)

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 04:36 PM

Cat 5 winds just 264 meters above the surface

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 04:36 PM

Eye of Laura showing on KLCH radar.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:38 PM

With those winds being that close it might have time, we'll see if this plane goes in again

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:39 PM

CAT5 winds aren't that high up

Could eventually mix down below 50m

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:39 PM

Pressure has been going down about 3mb every pass

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:40 PM

Cloudtops on western flank cooling again, I don't think shear is doing much to it.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:40 PM

I’m anxious, Hurricane Hunters are designed for these massive storms? How in danger are they in these kind of storms?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:41 PM

IIRC they need to angle themselves into the crosswind a bit to stay straight when winds get this high.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:42 PM

they can handle winds up to 200mph

above 200mph the g-forces will destroy the plane

if i recall, during hugo, a hunter got into a meso-vortex that was 200mph, and they ended up with like 6-7g's, when the planes are designed for 3-4

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 04:44 PM

The issue with the G's is the gust factor more than anything. If it was 200mph sustained with no gusts (like the jet stream) it would be no issue. It's sudden changes of wind direction that cause the problems. In this case they are well within safety limits

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM

Hurricane Laura's eye is the clearest I've seen today (edited)

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM

Okay good to know

Do we know anything about the storm surges rn?

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM

Oof https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/1298721868682166278?s=19

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM

And holy wow that eye

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:45 PM

Yeah, lowest 500m mean wind is at 140-145kts

Eventually, those will mix down to the surface

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM

some bad news about an EWRC happeing: it wont: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/eyepfcst/2020al13_eyepfcst_202008261800.gif

6

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM

AW SHIT

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM

eye likely to stay instead until at least noon. possiby 6pm tomorrow

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:46 PM

Thats a long lived eye damn

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 04:47 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:47 PM

eye could remain intact all the way to shreveport

combo of really good conditions and high forward speed

2

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 04:48 PM

Shreveport? Man

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 04:48 PM

Even more lightning in the core now these past few frames.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 04:50 PM

https://twitter.com/ColtonCwx/status/1298723887048347654

Colton Cichoracki (@ColtonCwx)

Everyone as we near the new advisory for Laura https://t.co/LqUcvswwsZ

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:50 PM

@Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) Yeah those Cat 5 winds are getting close, probably between 250m and 150m to the surface. (edited)

Next recon plane leaves at 21z

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:51 PM

160 is C5 right?

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:51 PM

140 knots/160 mph is C5, yes.

Last eye pass was down to 947, it still has some time

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 04:52 PM

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1298724835288182784

Eric Fisher (@ericfisher)

5pm advisory from NHC increases max sustained winds to 145mph. #Laura

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 04:52 PM

...WIND AND WATER LEVELS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 27.9°N 92.8°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 145 mph

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:53 PM

These data support an initial intensity of 125 kt, which is an increase of 55 kt over the past 24 hours. The minimum pressure has fallen to around 947 mb. The well-defined eye is now within range of the NWS Lake Charles WSR-88D radar, and hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates began at 1900 UTC (2 PM CDT) and will continue through landfall and beyond overnight.

55/24 wow

5

4

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 04:53 PM

Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. Although rapid weakening is expected on Thursday as Laura moves inland, the hurricane is expected to bring a swath of damaging winds well inland over western Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas. The cyclone or its remnants are forecast to move off Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend and there remains some possibility that Laura will re-intensify as a tropical cyclone offshore of the United States east before it merges with a frontal boundary later in the forecast period.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 04:53 PM

150 mph peak expected

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 04:54 PM

And there's the line about it re-intesifying over the Atlantic.

Been wondering about that for days. (edited)

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 04:54 PM

I just heard about it on the live stream

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 04:56 PM

how we got here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/13LP.GIF

i cringe every time the IR loads and its a bunch of black ring of death /w a fan of white and pink flecks. not the pink

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:06 PM

Yes, the pink

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 05:07 PM

confirmed waterspout with this mini supercell

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:08 PM

NOAA plane left from Orlando

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:11 PM

I’ve been seeing SST of 85-90 F in general area of GoM neat Laura

From data buoys

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:12 PM

we live just west of the loop and I've still spent the day bringing in porch missiles

NW rather

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:14 PM

yeah, hurricane force winds could reach texas city. great...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:14 PM

Lightning on both sides of eyewall.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:14 PM

How fucked is Houston/Pearland I got close friends there

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:15 PM

Houston will get off easy it looks like.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:15 PM

depends on the landfall now. eye over beaumont and houston is in serious trouble for wind damage. but it looks like its going east, into lake charles. so houston will be better off

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:15 PM

I appreciate the reassurance

Shit like this is why I’m grateful to be in OH tbh

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:16 PM

but rest assured, the i-10 from houston to well east of lake charles will be closed / cease to exist for some time

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:16 PM

aye, I'm not too worried about anything crazy right now.

but stranger things have happened.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:19 PM

Okay, this will be night where I brew another cup of coffee and buckle in for the show. (edited)

No morning classes tomorrow.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM

o7

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM

I envy you

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM

What a storm Still looking like it's strengthening right now

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:20 PM

Those black tops is uncomf

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:21 PM

oh...thats alot of white cloud tops too

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 05:21 PM

I think Houston currently is just gonna get alot of wind

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

What level of circle of death she's on? Black? White?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

let me slowly load up tropical tibits, he's got the best view

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

Shear has at least some effect on it at the moment on the west side, but its still strengthening

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

I'm using CoD for a reason lol

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

Banded white

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:22 PM

Yikes fam

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM

cod uses a different band color scheme that isn't as good

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM

That's why I'm asking.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM

Yeah, but TT is loading so slowly rn

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:23 PM

Yup.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:24 PM

ugh, thats alot of white band. she's getting close to cat 5. DVORAK has her still at CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.5 / 929.1mb/127.0kt

OHC over 100 for the rest of the trip unti landfall. no reason to stop growing. no EWRC signs. big chungus gonna chungus

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:25 PM

We’ll see what the next recon said

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 05:25 PM

The intensification of this reminds me of the storms in the Western Pacific that go from being 75mph Typhoon to a Super Typhoon in like 24 hours

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:25 PM

yeah, the similarities to a WPAC storm are striking

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:26 PM

Recent frame, white ring starting to complete

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:26 PM

Its reaaaaallly unnerving personally

this is as scary ass storm

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:28 PM

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1298727567302823943?s=21

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

The very first signs of shear adversely affecting #Laura's core are apparent. This flare-out of cold cloud tops (black/gray) in the SW quad is a tell-tale sign. However, that doesn't mean Laura has stopped strengthening. We'll find out when the next plane arrives in ~2 hours....

Likes

102

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 05:30 PM

Is the trough lifting north or is CIMSS being inaccurate?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:30 PM

Laura: "What shear?"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:31 PM

shear is still <10 kts. it only gets up to 20 around landfall

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:32 PM

Wouldn't do much to her

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:33 PM

She RIed with some dry air entrainment yesterday.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:33 PM

a storm that has true guts

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:34 PM

She basically gave dry air and shear a giant middle finger then went into beast mode.

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:34 PM

latest KE run came out: oh boy https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008262100.gif

7

cat 4 in the streets, cat 5 in the sheets

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:35 PM

Lot of energy... damn

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:36 PM

she would give landfalling katrina or sandy a run for their money

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:36 PM

Goodness

I think this tops out Michael in being the worst hurricane we've seen in a long time

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:37 PM

TT showing that black ring continuing to fill in, very cold from N to S especially

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:37 PM

Don't forget Dorian, Jaden

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:37 PM

Oh yeah... I forgot Dorian

Just missed the U.S. at least so we dodged a bullet

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM

Dorian was the worst in a long time, it just didn't hit the US as a Cat 5 so it'll be probably be more overlooked by the general public than the likes of Katrina, Sandy, Michael, etc.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM

You can blame a pair of high pressure for pinning a Cat 5 grinder to few tiny ass islands for a few days, though. (edited)

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM

Hurricane Michael’s pressure at landfall was 919. Laura would have a long way to beat Michael

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM

michael was nuts RI< but it was fairly small. high surge over a small area. this surge is going to be massive. 10-20 feet for 100-200 miles

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM

Surge of the likes we wouldn't have seen in a while

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:38 PM

What Irma did to the Leewards was also on that level

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 05:39 PM

like i said. this storm is RITA on steroids

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 05:40 PM

I’m interested to see what recon is going to find

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:40 PM

Dorian was awful largely because of atmospheric traffic jam in really unfortunate time and place, but Katrina was nasty with huge surge.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:42 PM

Dorian was also bad with surge, a large chunk of land was underwater

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:43 PM

Katrina’s surge was horrific and it as made worse with the infrastructure failings

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:44 PM

Ah yeah... I remember a clip from Dorian showing the surge (edited)

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:45 PM

You know wonder with all this Doomsday talk with Laura, I wonder if this is the result of the absolute terror with Katrina

She is now the measuring stick

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 05:47 PM

https://twitter.com/wdsu/status/1298734018582777856

wdsu (@wdsu)

WDSU Chief Meteorologist Margaret Orr chokes back tears reading a dire warning from the National Hurricane Center, saying the message reminds her of Hurricane Katrina. Please take this storm seriously. https://t.co/HKZlNH1inO

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:47 PM

Some smart ass on the force 13 asked if was safe to surf l m a o

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:48 PM

Katrina is the measuring stick for the northern gulf coast, Andrew for south Florida, Harvey for western gulf coast, Sandy for the Northeast, etc.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 05:50 PM

It it is interesting

Anthony R. (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 05:53 PM

Anyone know anything about this guy? https://twitter.com/AndrewElswickWX/status/1298738257774157833?s=19

Andrew Elswick (@AndrewElswickWX)

Sending prayers for Devin Black. Ain’t looking good for him. Let this be a lesson to other chasers: Know your limits and don’t get too confident, because Mother Nature will sit your ass right down. #Laura #wx

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:54 PM

Can he move?

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 05:54 PM

I believe his dot tried going north earlier, but he went back to the beach. There is a decent chance some of his escape roads have been washed out (edited)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:55 PM

Damn...

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:55 PM

Yeah everything may already be washed out. Can't really do anything now if he's stuck (edited)

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 05:56 PM

Potentially could try going west and then north, but we don't know if thats washed out as well

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 05:56 PM

Last thing we need is a chaser death, chasers got a crapload of bad press after what happened at El Reno, and that was before Twitter freakout culture became big.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:56 PM

^

El Reno was enough already

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM

I'll never understand the chaser intercepting hurricane holy grail mentality I've seen.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298740553530527751

Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach)

When #HurricaneLaura makes landfall, it will be the 3rd #hurricane to hit the continental US this year (Hanna and Isaias made landfall earlier). Only two years on record have had three continental US hurricane landfalls by August 27: 1886 (5 hurricanes) and 1916 (3 hurricane...

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM

Some are into hurricanes. I saw images of Michael eyewall from ground.

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 05:58 PM

I can understand a TS or Cat 1/2, but never really got the urge for big canes (edited)

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 05:59 PM

I took an image of Wilma's eyewall on the ground.

After the stress and uncertainty of the storm itself, then comes the boredom.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 06:01 PM

Large hurricanes especially in that areas is not something anyone should ever wish for

This is a situation where if people didn't evacuate they could get very hurt

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:02 PM

the heat, the mosquitos, the backbreaking work

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:02 PM

Moot point. Most don't wish for them but the reality is they happen.

But personally I wouldn't chase a major because I don't like the idea of being trapped in the deep south without AC for weeks on end wasting all my vacation days.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:03 PM

No fuel to drive anywehre

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:03 PM

I’ve dealt with days with no AC here in TN and I hated it. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:03 PM

Vacation days spent trapped in hurricane aftermath would better be spent on the plains.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 06:04 PM

Yeah ‘cane chasing sounds like a shit ton of waiting and roasting

But there has to be one hell of a high though for folks to do it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:05 PM

Yeah large respect for the ones who can pull it off and do it well. But that aint me bruh.

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:05 PM

Luck and the gambler's ruin

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:06 PM

If I wanted to witness a very high wind I'd intercept a bow echo.

Which i would do

lol

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:06 PM

Good luck forecasting a bow echo five days out

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:07 PM

Still beats getting trapped wasting all my vacation days in the southern heat

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:07 PM

They're huge pain in ass to forecast.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 06:07 PM

Or getting fucked in 40ft surges

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM

Hurricane chasing isn't for me, I am more of a severe/MCS/Supercell/Single cell/Winter Storm dude

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM

Oh hey any updates on our girl?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM

But that is me as a midwesterner

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM

Hourly update

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM

I almost got to ride out Michael on Tyndall, but wasn’t my set of shifts. As an EM guy it intrigues me. Would never do it in a car.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:08 PM

Here we go again with the convective hot towers in the eyewall

This is definitely not giving up on the intensification trend

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:09 PM

Yes...

Still black/white circle of death

Anything from flight or dropsonde?

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:13 PM

still en rout

e

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:13 PM

Hopefully that dude isn’t stuck because that’s all flat land and right at sea level, if he’s stuck, he’s fucked and I hope that’s not the case

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 26-Aug-20 06:14 PM

If he doesn't have a plan, and isn't just spoofin his location, if he doesn't figure out a way out, he won't make it

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:15 PM

Gotcha... you have link to flight or dropsonde data?

Oh I found it on TT. Never mind

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 26-Aug-20 06:16 PM

Watching the eye azimuth I have still not quite unpuckered

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:17 PM

Oh no, he went back down south

I hope that doesn’t mean he can’t find a way out

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:17 PM

The donut of death

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:18 PM

Should I say buzzsaw

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:18 PM

Devin moved a bit up north

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 06:19 PM

Hopefully he found an escape route.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:19 PM

Nerve-wracking

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:21 PM

Supposedly 5 or 6 miles off the beach

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:21 PM

Still ways to go to get away from surge.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 06:22 PM

Still too close, he's gotta get further inland.

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:22 PM

unfortunately. Not very smart choices from several chasers

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:23 PM

Like always have escape plan, and scout out parking garage or something as a last resort.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:24 PM

Looks like he’s going back north to try again

Hopefully he succeeds

4

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 06:24 PM

I'm prepping to load the 'oh crap' gear in with my work stuff in the car tonight. If this thing tracks closer I'm gonna have a few hairy work shifts over the next few days.

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:24 PM

Rootin for you, Devin

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:26 PM

Last resort if I were in that situation and if the flood waters were calm, I’d swim across, and ditch the car, can’t do anything else if he’s stranded except that

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM

Low tide is occurring now, if he’s really got a chance to leave with roads blocked, it’s now or never (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM

Pretty much comes down to lose the car or your life

If he doesn’t have anything else

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM

even then, pretty far distance to run to get out of range

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:27 PM

What else do you got

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:28 PM

exactly

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:28 PM

Pretty much fighting for your life at that point

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:28 PM

better your life than car keys

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:29 PM

Water tower's about all that survived past storms in that area, though this one is vastly stronger

Not sure if Cameron will return from it; the Rita-Ike punch drove most of the residents away (edited)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:31 PM

If he can't go north because of blocked road, walking/running for something substantial as far inland as possible is better than nothing.

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:31 PM

Looks like he got out

5

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 26-Aug-20 06:31 PM

thank god

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:32 PM

Yay.... he still has more to go since Lake Charles is screwed.

(so are other chasers)

4

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:32 PM

Brian Emfinger is also on the waterline

https://twitter.com/brianemfinger?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Brian Emfinger (@brianemfinger)

Storm Chaser, Nature photographer, Aerial Videographer, and Freelance Photojournalist. Video licensing thru @LiveStormsMedia.

Tweets

4645

Followers

10573

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:33 PM

NOAA flight is getting into the business now.

I remember him from Cookeville tor

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 06:34 PM

He has some footage from 30 mins ago https://www.facebook.com/PhotojournalistBrianEmfinger/videos/vb.450677792142730/3318357944880779/?type=2&theater

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 26-Aug-20 06:35 PM

still seems almost stationary, slow NW travel

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 06:35 PM

I honestly don't know what these guys are thinking. Are they not taking the storm surge threat seriously?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 06:35 PM

Looks like it's turning to go north, albeit slowly

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 06:36 PM

Yeah this thing is slowing down pretty good

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 06:37 PM

Many 160mph+ bins at 15kft from LCH, hope the radar site stays up for a while cuz it'll be very interesting to see come in

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 06:44 PM

So landfall will be Cameron tonight or is that still in the air

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 06:46 PM

Jesus, those cold white tops are just stationary. Not good

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 06:48 PM

Just saw a peak of 169mph velocity from KLCH

5

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 06:49 PM

Now white circle of death?

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 06:52 PM

It's close. You can see the meso vorts spinny around the center

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 06:53 PM

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 06:56 PM

Looks like the Air Force recon flight is going to take off very soon and the NOAA plane is about to make it's first pass through

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 06:56 PM

I wonder if we could see some eyewall tornadoes upon landfall with all of these mesovortices

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 06:57 PM

Water vapor is solid maxed out over 2/3 of the hurricane. What a beast

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 06:59 PM

Pinks are back

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:03 PM

pizza time stops You’re telling me there’s pink now? Damn man

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:04 PM

On radar, the NE portion of the eyewall is REALLY strong looking, I would not be shocked if they found Cat 5 winds in it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:04 PM

UHHHHH

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:05 PM

133 knot SFMR it was

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:06 PM

And now time to wait on the Dropsonde

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:06 PM

It’s nearly there

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:06 PM

Still got hours before land, without an EWRC Laura could make it...

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:07 PM

wow a strengthening eye wall

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:07 PM

Before Michael the rule of thumb most people had was northern Gulf hurricanes usually weakened quickly before landfall, not the case anymore clearly

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM

Well that was a wild eyewall penetration

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM

Ooh?

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM

Oh?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:08 PM

Playing some smash rn. What happened?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM

this may have a run at Category 5 if this keeps that eyewall going big yikes

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM

133 kts max wind is that correct?

Anthony R. (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1298759310290423808

John Homenuk (@jhomenuk)

133kt (153mph) SMFR on this latest recon pass through the NE quadrant of #Laura. Holy cow.

1

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM

Definitely at or above 130kt at the very least

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM

The southern eye wall looks very strong

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:09 PM

i mean its already approaching cat 5

as in just a few mph off of it

i can't imagine at least one of these updates not having cat 5 winds

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:12 PM

This was like 40 miles from the center

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 07:12 PM

high tides for the coastal area for impacting. [7:11 PM] Today 26 Aug. 4:30 pm. -0.18ft. Thu 27 Aug. 12:47 am. 2.39ft. 5:33 pm. -0.23ft.

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:12 PM

Peep the area around that too, 170-175

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:13 PM

937.4 mb extrap

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:13 PM

Ooo... hey it’s way above the sea level though.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:13 PM

Now we wait for the dropsonde, probably around 940 mb

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:14 PM

It’s churning up there

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:15 PM

Greg, the tilt is above sea level so winds are usually lower towards the surface so I’ll take 183 mph with a grain of salt

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:15 PM

~15kft I think

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:17 PM

The cold bands aloft are now consolidating into a circle that doesn't move. 155mph wouldn't surprise me

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:17 PM

I figured that much, Just interesting

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:19 PM

Because why not? https://twitter.com/NWSShreveport/status/1298736351513321473

NWS Shreveport (@NWSShreveport)

The Shreveport Radar is currently not feeling well. Parts are on the way and it should be back online around Midnight. We apologize for the down time and thank you for your patience.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:19 PM

At least it's not a major part failure

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:20 PM

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1298757526016716801

Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather)

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has evacuated their office and the graphic below, shows why A storm surge of 9 ft or more could inundate their office. We'll see how long the radar (white dome) will hold out @NWSBrownsville is backing up their operations

4

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:21 PM

937 MSLP (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:23 PM

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1298761114709299206?s=20

Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop)

Extrapolated pressure of 937mb with some significant winds. Curious to see what the dropsonde measured in the eye. https://t.co/lBHOb4hQ0L

5

937mb w/ a 84kt sfc-wind

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:23 PM

probably between bands

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:24 PM

Yeah, if that was true and not band-related, then you'd have 929mb

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:25 PM

Airforce recon mission just took off from Charleston

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 26-Aug-20 07:25 PM

Is that gonna be the last flight till landfall?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:25 PM

Laura is feeding, with a linear band of convective towers wrapping towards the S quadrant

3

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 07:27 PM

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae0111 If you want to track the AF recon in real time

ADS-B Exchange - tracking thousands of aircraft

ADS-B Exchange - tracking aircraft using tar1090

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:27 PM

she's got the pinwheel effect inside the eye going on. another classic annular cat-5 indicator. she's really close

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 07:28 PM

She's still got too many outer banding features to be considered annular. Annular is like no bands all eyewall with huge eye, usually Cat 3 intensity since eyewall is so spread out.

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 07:30 PM

https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1298764341525831680?s=20

Brian Emfinger (@brianemfinger)

Last shot at Rutherford Beach before I split! #HurricaneLaura #lawx https://t.co/AMq5vk80rn

Probably closest images from the beach we will see

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 07:31 PM

That Gulf looks mad

Yeah Royce "L" has the spokes.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:32 PM

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1298761635520294913?s=21

Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather)

Hurricane hunters just flew through the eye of #Laura and found the pressure to be ~937 milibars...10 mb lower than the advisory just 3 hours ago It's still strengthening, ugh

5

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:33 PM

So the question is...will @Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) be throwing TWC’s coverage up on YouTube so we can watch it in the off-season? Lol

4

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 07:33 PM

winds measured were just below cat 5 as well

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:34 PM

I know some people that are in the works of that

3

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 07:34 PM

Kickass. That may or may not be an off-season guilty pleasure of mine. (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:37 PM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298766291189334021

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

Phone rings. A call from the hotel's front desk. A cool & official-sounding woman: "Due to the severity of the storm, we're asking you to ride it out in your bathtub, or with the rest of us in the stairwells." Serious shit. #Hurricane #LAURA #Texas #Louisiana

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:37 PM

So... anyone wants a ride in the bathtub?

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM

rimshot

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM

God, I spend hours just watching old cane coverage; I've gotta get my old tapes from Dean, Felix, Dolly, Gustav and Ike up eventually. Katrina/Rita/Wilma too, so much to convert from VHS so little time (edited)

Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 07:38 PM

I will be honest, I never expected it to be high end Cat 4. I thought most likely it would be Cat 3 but this is a really unpleasant surprise.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 07:39 PM

Dropsonde got 942 mb with 18 knot winds

Supports around 940

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:40 PM

who's ready for the nocturnal maximum?

8

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 07:41 PM

Yep

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:42 PM

I'm already gonna be up working on upgrading an EMR system, so I am

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 07:42 PM

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 92.9W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 07:43 PM

look at all the troposphereic gravity waves

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:43 PM

Time for sunset visible shots

What an eye. Wow

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:45 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 07:46 PM

We lost power for like 3 hours here in IN, cause of the heat. Back now, strapping in for a long night

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 07:47 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298768646165102602

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Incredible wind velocities of 180 - 205 mph just above the ground were observed by a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall of #Laura, helping to confirm the winds the plane observed. The surface winds would be lower due to friction, but still extreme.

5

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 07:48 PM

yeesh even on GOES. look at that eye. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/CONUS/GEOCOLOR/1250x750.jpg

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 07:51 PM

All that lightning still

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 07:53 PM

At this rate it's almost definitely a cat 5

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 07:54 PM

Looking for the Heinz (1)57

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:04 PM

strong towers on teh north side. very strong.

do i see pink?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:16 PM

Extrap 935-936 possibly

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 08:17 PM

Got my hurricane Track subscription, so I am all set for the long haul.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 08:19 PM

Also in for the long haul tonight

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:21 PM

No sleep tonight

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:23 PM

I’m brewing a cup of coffee

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

Eye is contracting.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

Shit!

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

Not again

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

That's a large convective blowup

5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

Something something ice skater

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

O_O

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:24 PM

More hot towers

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 08:25 PM

Shit!

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 08:25 PM

...i should probably fire up the HF rig. my antenna situation is best defined as garbage when operating from home but what i do have is positioned well to listen to landfall area.

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:26 PM

TWC seems to want there to be up to 90mph gusts here in my area when the center passes closest tomorrow morning. I think some TS-force winds and maybe 60mph gusts is more realistic.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:27 PM

Another 133 knot SFMR. Had a 137 knot SFMR that was flagged

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 08:31 PM

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1298779535131934726?s=21 155

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

The recon plane's pass just now through #Laura's northern eyewall once again measured winds of ~155 mph, right on the cusp of Category 5 intensity. Central pressure is down ~1 mb since the previous pass, indicating no reversal of the intensification trend yet.

Likes

115

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:31 PM

@JakeK (Alexandria, LA) the GFS says the eye will stay intact all the way to shreveport

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM

Oh wait 158

TWC saying

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM

I believe that, but the forecast track is well west of Alexandria.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM

I don’t trust TWC as much...

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM

The 137kt SFMR was flagged as bad data

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:32 PM

We're within the TS-force wind-field for sure, but I don't think we're in the hurricane-strength field.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:33 PM

TS force winds + 20% for gusts. could get up there

so whatever your sustained predicted is, add 20%

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:34 PM

Always possible I guess, this storm is a monster.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 08:34 PM

Yeah but they get live feedback from the NHC (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 08:35 PM

the max wind gust i see in alexandria is 68mph forecast

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 08:36 PM

That's closer to my uneducated guess

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 08:39 PM

Man its gonna get C5 tonight

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:39 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) I just got back on Laura... yes I saw some hints of pink

Still more hot towers and lot of white mostly wrapping the eye.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 08:41 PM

940mb extrapolated pressure w/ a 30kt wind

So this equates to 937mb

From the previous center fix of 942mb, this is a 5mb drop since that timeframe

Rashaad Smith (Atascocita, TX) 26-Aug-20 08:42 PM

oh lordy

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:43 PM

AF on the way for another reconnaissance mission

Ken McWatters (Tulsa, OK) 26-Aug-20 08:43 PM

Great satellite pic.. Beautiful but deadly

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 08:45 PM

From the SPC 01z outlook

3

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:45 PM

https://i.gyazo.com/e25c087cc6b55c27a4ec23778a3d1319.jpg

nexrad is having a great time rn

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:46 PM

delias that

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 26-Aug-20 08:46 PM

Didn't realize Michael Beard was chasing

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:46 PM

yep

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 08:47 PM

Minisups galore!

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 08:48 PM

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:48 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) thats with delias on

its even worse with delias off

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:49 PM

lol really?

let me look

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:51 PM

https://gyazo.com/0fcaacb53bf032b45ec9bfeca055898d

Gyazo

its actually crazy

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 08:51 PM

Try unchecking "Use Wind Profile" in Dealiasing settings.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:52 PM

yes I'm having that issue to.

I think it might be the color table?

What color table you using?

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM

thank you jacob!

that actually solved the problem

2

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM

i did what Jacob suggested and it fixed it for me

yes

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM

glen if you're asking me i can dm you mine

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 08:53 PM

crap mines not working

sure

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 08:54 PM

Yeah, the algorithm can get messed up due to the outrageous wind profiles being pulled from events like this. I had the same problem during the Midwest

a couple weeks ago.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:54 PM

sent

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:55 PM

when my meme 1000 mph colortable actually comes in handy

2

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:55 PM

ive really seen that problem only during strong tornadoes

or other strong hurricanes sometimes

@Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 whats that overlay you have? are you using GR or another product?

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:55 PM

GR2A, the overlay is torprob

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM

the pink outline?

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM

or probtor, i forget the order- and yes

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM

can you sent a link for that one? I don't think I've ever heard of it

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM

hold on

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-Aug-20 08:56 PM

Final light before things go nuts

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 26-Aug-20 08:57 PM

sent in dm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 08:57 PM

8pm advisory, pressure falls to 937 mb

7

1

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 09:02 PM

3rd pass through NW eyewall about to commence

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 09:05 PM

Godspeed

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:06 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al13/mpswtcke/2020al13_mpswtcke_202008270000.gif

4

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:07 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) not exactly sure what i'm looking at here

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM

NHC wind on the bottom. integrated kinetic energy on the side

AKA IKE

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM

That's 00z though

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM

IKE; is it bad I haven't heard of that metric before?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM

its a way to compare wind focused storms vs surge based storms. 00Z was the last run only runs every 6 hours

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:08 PM

And another 133 knots SFMR. That’s the 3rd one on 3 separate passes

This time in the SE quad

This could be a cat 5 if they sample the NE quad again here soon

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM

I'm not sure how much I trust this one since flight level was lower than SFMR.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM

so a storm with a higher IKE vs actual wind speeds is going to have a stronger than expected storm surge?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM

bingo!

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM

That’s true. See if we get a NE pass

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:09 PM

thank yoU!

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM

Lets just say they dropped surge off the Saffair Simpson scale long ago for a good reason.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM

well yeah that one made sense to me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM

for instance, even though katrina had weaked to a cat 3, it's landfall was the same surge as a cat 5. this storm is roughly the same power (IKE) as katrina

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:10 PM

Isaac... Cat 1 with huge surge (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM

sandy was a cat 1 at landfall with the highest ever recorded IKE for a landfalling storm.

sandy was like double katrina. it was nuts

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM

Sandy was HUGE though

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM

Yeah sandy was massive

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:11 PM

Largest Atlantic TC on record, and possibly largest TC behind Tip as best as my memory serves

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 09:12 PM

there is 1 storm in teh atlantic that was bigger than sandy, but it was a fish storm.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:12 PM

Olga '01

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM

Lol fish storm. Thanks for reminding me.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM

Chonkin subtropical storm covering half the basin

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM

I'm not familiar with Olga '01.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:13 PM

Didn't do much but look neat lol

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:14 PM

I was like knee high way back then, and it was hard to find anything good about Olga '01 anyway.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 26-Aug-20 09:14 PM

https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/1298790436241375234

Alan Gerard (@Wxmanms1)

This is just getting insane. 133 kt (153 mph) SFMR (surface winds) in the NW, "weak quadrant" eyewall #Laura

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 09:14 PM

https://twitter.com/VelocityChasing/status/1298790030861795329

Velocity Storm Chasing (@VelocityChasing)

Categorical strength is both academic and meaningless at this point. #HurricaneLaura is a BEAST. Prayers for anyone in its path. #lawx #txwx https://t.co/S2y3KbESOY

3

Some perspective

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:15 PM

Hot towers still generating around her eye wall.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:16 PM

Cat 5 is probably inevitable if they're in the right place at the right time to measure it, but impact wise yeah it doesnt matter

Does for the historical record but pretty sure Cameron and Lake Charles residents don't care much abotu that

3

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:17 PM

She still have ways to go for landfall, and categories don't matter anymore impact-wise.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:17 PM

Costliest storm ever was a 3 at landfall by wind after all

Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM

What are hot towers?

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM

Laura might be sub-940 mb if these derided MSLPs are accurate. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2413A-LAURA_timeseries.png

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM

She is sub 940. NHC advisory is 937mb

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:18 PM

Oh yeah.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:19 PM

Hot towers are fresh convections/thunderstorms in eyewall.

2

Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:19 PM

Thanks!

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:20 PM

Particularly strong updrafts as well.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:22 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748351440036036638/unknown.png

VDM has 137 knots SFMR

That is cat 5

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM

This thing is going to create a monster surge

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM

Costliest storm ever was a 3 at landfall by wind after all

@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) Though the cost was mostly due to the terrible circumstances, with the levees failing and the such

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM

Yeah true

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:25 PM

Leevees sucked ass (edited)

New Orleans infrastructures sucked ass.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:26 PM

Catastrophic hurricane in Mississippi, marginal hurricane sideswipe plus cataclysmic engineering disaster in New Orleans

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:28 PM

Winds in NOLA were pretty unimpressive too if I recall correctly

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:28 PM

NOAA 2 still in Laura, AF300 is almost to outer rainband

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:30 PM

I think gusts to category one in NOLA, without levees failing it'd have been just a MIssissippi event pretty much

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:31 PM

That vividly worded bulletin would have busted completely, but it verified for the reason people didn't expect

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:32 PM

Only if someone got head out of ass and have levees fixed in the first place, Katrina wouldn't be #1 most expensive US natural diasater

Harvey would be instead though (to date) (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:32 PM

Was it storm surge or rainfall that did Houston in?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:32 PM

Rainfall....

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM

Ah, that's right

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM

50"+ of rainfall.

IIRC.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM

Mostly because Harvey dumped FEET of rain

60" record I think.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM

We should probably move this to wx lobby, just so we can keep this chat relevant

2

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:33 PM

Yeah...

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 09:34 PM

The vividly-worded forecast would not have "busted" if the levees didn't fail. New Orleans WFO covers the portion of Mississippi that was impacted by Katrina.

It was completely accurate for that area, and the NOLA levees weren't involved.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:40 PM

NOAA is still in Laura

Straight from eye

AF is in Laura's outer rainbands atm.

From infrared loop, my estimate for ETA for landfall is 3-5 hours from now. (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:44 PM

https://imgur.com/j6FOQzd

That's a wide TOR.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:44 PM

direction i think that is

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:44 PM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:45 PM

So... ETA for landfall is between 11 pm and 1 am CDT.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:45 PM

yeah couple hours and it should happen.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:46 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:46 PM

50NM to shoreline

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:46 PM

Yeah, I estimated from how far the eye traveled in past 2 hours using infrared.

Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:47 PM

So there is some time to go before it makes and fall.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:47 PM

Well, I hope they're gone already

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:48 PM

Circle area, shows signs of a eyewall mesovortices.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:48 PM

There has gotta be Cat 5 winds in there.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:48 PM

Both NOAA and AF in storm.

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:49 PM

At its current vector, Laura is only 71 miles offshore.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:49 PM

Oh thats Neat Project Loon is head towards Lakes Charles I think. To provide internet.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:50 PM

I think NOAA may have a run-in with a thunderstorm... not sure

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:50 PM

Those Loon balloons are at 60kft.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:50 PM

Laura's aft eye wall might be collapsing a bit.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:51 PM

What that means?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:51 PM

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/ Live Streams!

Live Storm Chasing, Watch Storm Chasers in Real Time!

Experience live storm chasing & watch top storm chasers stream dashboard video of tornados and extreme weather as it happens. Compatible with Android & iOS.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:51 PM

Theres also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o&feature=youtu.be

hurricanetrack

Hurricane Laura (2020) Part 5 - Texas - Storm Field Work - Vehicle Cam

Mark Sudduth, Greg Nordstrum, Mike Farrow, and Brent Lynn spent last night in Winnie, TX for the night. They are going to set up more cameras and weather stations to monitor the impact from Laura as it approaches the Gulf coast. Follow along with them and see where they go o...

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 09:52 PM

there is also his app

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:52 PM

It /could/ be a sign of weakening, but I'm gauging this based on radar presentation.

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Hopefully it means the intensification is at an end....

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

yeah. If his Cameron cam floods thats surge up to 9feet. (edited)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Let's see...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Recon and sat presentation do not suggest weakening.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Yeah.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Hot towers are still going up on N side

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

I said could, not is.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:53 PM

It might mean it's going steady, though it might be at the bare minimum of Cat 5 as we speak. (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM

I'll say that mesovortices in the eye is a sign of strengthening.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM

Sudduth has been crushing it. A side note, I don’t see how Lake Charles doesn’t get the eye/eyewall from this. This is almost moving due north now.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM

AF recon is about to hit the NE eyewall, moment of truth in the next 10-20 minutes (edited)

4

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM

Sat presentation remains impressive, no warming of the eyewall cloud tops.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:54 PM

Here we go... I'm all charged up on coffee. I hope I can stay awake since my usual bedtime is 10 CDT

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 09:55 PM

I'll stay up for this next advisory then I'll probably go to bed

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:55 PM

Still black/white circle of death on infrared. I don't have morning class so I should be ok.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:55 PM

Is it just me or does the south part of the storm look much weaker part. Normally it would all be pretty bad all around or am I just crazy.

1

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:56 PM

Velocity has Cat 5 strength winds at approx 8kft

Shadow Magic 26-Aug-20 09:56 PM

I wasn't sure if it was the radar. Does the south part seem weaker?

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:56 PM

I've seen plenty of major hurricanes with asymmetric eye wall strengths on radar.

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) Yes, the southern parts are weaker. Its the right/front quadrant that is the strongest.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

Convection is. The “hole” is showing on both KHGX also so it’s not attenuation. The eyewall is still closed but convection is weaker in the south area

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

Landfalling hurricanes typically have the radar-facing side look stronger than the southern side, usually the back eyewall builds right when it is making landfall

1

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

Yeah thats what I was trying to remember if all Hurricanes are like this or Laura is just a special case. Thanks everyone

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

How is our cane doing?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

Near Cat 5

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

She's on steriods

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 09:57 PM

Last radar I saw, the eye was open

was it doing a ERC?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 09:58 PM

Our girl should make landfall in 3-5 hours. No ERC

We didn't see any ERC today

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:58 PM

Not an ERC, just the typical landfaller look. (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:58 PM

ERC doesn't look likely at this point.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM

Harvey's eye looked like this too, the backside built up on landfall on radar.

I am not sure why that happens but it is a thing.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM

There's a very healthy inflow band on the north side that's been there much of the day.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM

Pretty sure that's radar attenuation mostly

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM

pressure really came down

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 09:59 PM

Imo I think will go CAT 5, just basing how much of a beast this is and the fact of when this hits land, it’s going to strengthen within 20 miles of it being on shore

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM

when in the next update?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM

Next Hour

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM

when is the next update I mean

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM

I should also mention that our girl RI’ed last night and today.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM

If anyone here is chasing and will let us pick up their stream on WeatherTV let me know.

2

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:00 PM

Don't know if anyone is chasing

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:01 PM

0200 Z update still has Laura at 150 mph and at 937 mb.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:01 PM

Got classes so I can’t chase

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:01 PM

Beard

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

Remember updates are like an hour or so behind the latest NHC messages (edited)

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

So is anyone streaming?

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

I have a ton of chasers in the area, they just stopped streaming in the past couple hours.

Hopefully they will come back when things pick up

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

Maybe leaving?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

@Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) scroll up we posted links to streams

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

Like evacuate

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

Glen that takes too much work lol, kidding, I am doing that now

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:02 PM

lol

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:03 PM

Recon will penetrate the ne eyewall in the next 10 minutes. Didn’t quite reach it in the recent update (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 10:03 PM

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/mikey.gribble.html

Man I this goign to happen on high tide, landfall.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:04 PM

The 0200 Z update was just a position update. They may have used the 0100Z pressure and wind estimates.

Hopefully, they get pressure and wind updates for the 0300 Z update.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM

High tide yikes

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM

This is one hell of a highly anticipated recon pass

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM

The you know what is about to hit the fan

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

Melinda Deslatte (@MelindaDeslatte)

150 people in Cameron Parish refused to leave, planned to weather #Laura in everything from elevated homes to recreational vehicles. “It’s a very sad situation. We did everything we could to encourage them to leave.” #lagov #lawx (from ⁦@AP⁩) https://t.co/4fxKlZPoYQ

4

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:05 PM

Reminds me of the last Michael pass for recon (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM

sigh

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM

I hope they make it

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM

Heard from my mother that the average income for a home in lake charles is 22k yearly

So that could play a role on how bad this gets

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM

To me, sometimes people are unable to evacuate because they have sick/disable family members, dirt poor (edited)

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM

RECREATIONAL VEHICLES??

2

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 10:06 PM

‍♂️

Johnson_Wx (Plainfield, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM

Bruh

Yeah...not looking good for ya

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM

Bruh that RV can move.

Move it!

2

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM

Some people are so poor that RV is all they can afford

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM

Still those people are in deep trouble

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:07 PM

Gosh haven’t those people thought about not being poor?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM

Hold up, Corbin.

I was born poor

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM

I was being sarcastic Ivy

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM

I have some friends who live in RVs. Honestly sometimes its all you can get.

5

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM

That was sarcasm

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:08 PM

Maybe add /s next time lol

Agreed with Sean

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:09 PM

Seriously my concern for hurricanes has always been about the impovished communities

they’re ones that get hurt the most

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:09 PM

My family once lived in trailer for few years so tornadoes and derechos are main issues

So... usually the dirt poor are worst hit populations

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:09 PM

got em Ivy...

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM

Yeah they are

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM

Plus you remember these are peoples homes you are talking about. Sometimes it just impossible to let go and leave.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM

Frankly some folks can’t leave for a host of reasons (edited)

Usually its poverty and medical

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM

But where will they go Corbin? Sometimes you dont have family someplace else.

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:10 PM

Sorry can’

Its typo chill people

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM

colder convection has finally closed up

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM

ok, this cane is a beast

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM

I just don't think anyone wants jokes when there a dangerous situation gloomy at peoples fronts door. Its people choice it may not be the best but sometimes its all they got.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM

Maybe they don't have the funds to get away

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:12 PM

AF data is coming up soon for the eye/NE part

No $ = hard to find places to stay

2

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

My point is there is a host of reason why they CAN’T usually its poverty or medical, Grandma’s on oxygen or Dad is in a wheelchair.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

The Hurricane hunters are flying?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

Hotels are depressingly expensive

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

Yep

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

145 knot Flight level

116 knot SFMR

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

Ya’ll know we’re on the same page right?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

yes.

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:13 PM

Yeah, I know the issue of being stuck home because someone who is medically unable to evacuate.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:14 PM

I can see black closing up around the eye now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:14 PM

Lets move on folks, or take it somewhere else. Thanks

3

Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:14 PM

Keep On Topic..

3

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

We’re still getting hot towers

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

Wx-Lobby is good place for discussions

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

What’s the ETA on landfall?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

Watches going up

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

Yes, still

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

Or is it starting?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

Eye is on Lake Charles Radar right now

where is landfall going to be?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

NOAA plane with 144 knot flight level and 127 knot SFMR

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

I saw 1am? Not sure if that still correct or not

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:15 PM

Money says SW LA coast

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:16 PM

1am CDT*

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:16 PM

AF300's in the eye and showing an extrapolated MSLP of 937.8 mb. (edited)

Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:16 PM

Note: Things will quickly get busy in here as we get closer to landfall. To ensure a smooth experience, please refrain from wishcasting, fearmongering, and off-topic posts. In addition, please refrain from low-quality posts, memes, and one-word/emoji posts. Due to the fast moving pace of this thread, these posts may be removed without warning, don't take it personally. We know people come here for information and discussion, so we would like to keep it clean and easy to find said information. And, as always, read #policies_and_tips for our general rules.

9

11

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 26-Aug-20 10:17 PM

1AM CDT is around 2AM EST correct? And yeah I’d suggest rate limiting if it’s gonna get flooded soon.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:17 PM

Yes. It is.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM

934.3 extrap by the NOAA plane

1

J. Mike Sheard (KY) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM

What are the Laura-related tornado watch probs?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM

60/20

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM

Heres a helpful link I found Recon not sure how quickly it updates or if it has been linked before http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=NOAA2&product_page=hdob

Latest HDOB from NOAA2 (WP-3D) - Tropical Atlantic

Latest HDOB from NOAA aircraft NOAA2, a Lockheed WP-3D Orion.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:18 PM

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1298806812213473280?s=21

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Recon update 9:15pm CDT: New Air Force plane is just now arriving, finding that #Laura's eastern eyewall remains as strong as it has ever been. No sign of weakening yet. Eye is now ~60 miles from Cameron, LA.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:19 PM

I also have recon data on TT.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:19 PM

so it's 2:19 z right now?

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM

It's 2:19 UTC

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM

Just saw a little bit of pink on N side on infrared (from a hot tower)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM

yes

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM

2:20 now

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:20 PM

Which radar site are you looking at Ivy?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:21 PM

Not radar... satellite.

I'm using infrared on both TT and COD.

Hot towers on N side.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 26-Aug-20 10:22 PM

UTC equals Greenwich Mean Time which is the time in London England, where the Greenwich Observatory is, in which the Prime Meridian passes through

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:22 PM

Just few pink dots, but mostly white. Also, black/white almost surrounds the eye.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:22 PM

https://twitter.com/austinburkeswx/status/1298806467034783747?s=21

Austin Burkes (@AustinBurkeswx)

Latest recon passage supports Cat 5 intensity. 165 mph on eastern eyewall. #laura

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:23 PM

Umm... I'm not familiar with Austin B. sooo... I am not trusting on that one. (edited)

J. Mike Sheard (KY) 26-Aug-20 10:23 PM

Flight level

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:23 PM

Look at extrapolated surface level...

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:24 PM

Ugh, Laura, you really could've not.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:24 PM

Let me see if there's extrapolated surface wind

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:24 PM

Recon did find 165.7

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:25 PM

I'm looking for surface, not flight level.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:25 PM

Recon did find 165.7

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) flight level or surface? KTS or MPH? (edited)

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:25 PM

Flight level was ~ 11,926 feet

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM

Flight level, it does NOT support cat 5. He’s misinterpreting the data

And the guy deleted the tweet (edited)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM

Flight level winds are usually higher than surface

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM

TORR issued associated with Laura. (edited)

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:26 PM

That is encouraging.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=NOAA2&product_page=hdob heres the link I got the info from

Latest HDOB from NOAA2 (WP-3D) - Tropical Atlantic

Latest HDOB from NOAA aircraft NOAA2, a Lockheed WP-3D Orion.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM

Still. This is NOT encouraging. The winds are still high anyway.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM

Warning or watch?

J. Mike Sheard (KY) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM

CC drop

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM

Also, both NOAA and AF are showing ~935mb in the eye now. (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:27 PM

Went TORR for that cc drop

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

Yeah. TORR says radar-confirmed tornado.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

I wonder if they'll even be able to survey it

Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

wonder if NWS will issue that hurricane winds imminent statement like they have in the past

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

considering storm surge and wind from the eye itself

Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

if anyone knows what im referring to

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

You mean an Extreme Wind Warning?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:28 PM

like how they issued tor warnings for the eyewall in the past?

Marty (NW TN) 26-Aug-20 10:29 PM

yes i think extreme wind warning

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:29 PM

An EWW is certain when Laura's eyewall gets close enough.

5

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM

Yeah, last one was Michael and Laura is within 10 mph of Michael

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEZy1rcNQWE

ABC13 Houston

Galveston, Texas | 24/7 Live Beach Camera

We're tracking Hurricane Laura - get the latest info here: https://abc13.com/forecast/?ex_cid=YouTube And watch live as Laura makes landfall on ABC13's streaming TV and mobile apps. Follow us for more great content! Facebook: https://abc13.co/2HbTdO3 Twitter: https://abc13.c...

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM

EWW are for Cat 3 winds and above, and this is a borderline 5, so Brownsville is just waiting at this point.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:30 PM

The N hot tower is close to shore now.

Here are the pink dots again on N hot towers. Latest image.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:32 PM

https://www.kplctv.com/live/

Watch Live Newscasts

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:32 PM

The northern eyewall has been producing very strong convection for the past few hours.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:33 PM

Oh yeah... been watching that since that's where the pink dots have been appearing multiple times.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:33 PM

Eye Wall appears to be holding strong, I don't see an EWRC occurring in the short term

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:34 PM

Here is a rain band, embedded tornadic supercell right here.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 10:34 PM

it's gonna hit land soon

could see a cc drop next few scans

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:35 PM

There are a couple more likely supercells lined up to SE from the image.

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:35 PM

I was watching the loop and that pendant shape was the dead ringer.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:37 PM

you all feel the Lake Charles radar dish will last through the night?

4

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 26-Aug-20 10:37 PM

Yes

But that’s w/ a non confident yes

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 10:38 PM

Hopefully the dish itself survives, although I feel communication loss may happen at some point tonight.

6

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:38 PM

Not very confident

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:38 PM

Joshua what site are you looking at? I can't see that cell

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 26-Aug-20 10:39 PM

I don't know how strong of winds these radars can handle. Hoping the radar survives and doesn't end up like Puerto Rico's after Maria

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM

They might go 160 at 11 pm

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM

winds are at 150?

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM

T number is approx 6.5

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM

Think so.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:41 PM

That puts it at cat 4

150 mph confirmed from NHC

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:42 PM

T really doesn't matter when there's recon in it

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:42 PM

@Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC), Radarscope for Windows 10

@Garrett (Hillsdale MI) I am a Dvorak aficionado.

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:43 PM

Are there instances other than maria of extreme wind taking out a radar dish? I would imagine the imminent situation with the lake charles dish would be comparible to what happened in maria

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:44 PM

NHC reports 150mph pressure at 940

wow

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 26-Aug-20 10:44 PM

It's likely going to take a direct hit from the eyewall

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:44 PM

A tornado did that, Drake. So, I doubt that it can survive the eyewall.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:46 PM

the eye is almost totally on lake charles

KLCH

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:46 PM

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Southeastern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana... Central Vermilion Parish in southwestern Louisiana... * Until 1015 PM CDT. * At 941 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles south of Forked Island, moving northwest at 80 mph. HAZARD...Tornado.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 10:46 PM

Andrew took out Miami's radar back in '92, but that was not a WSR-88D I don't think.

The new TORR has a "Damaging tornado" hazard.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:49 PM

AF Dropsonde straight from eye

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:49 PM

~939mb in account for 15kt wind

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:49 PM

NOAA is making another run for eye too.

Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:51 PM

https://gyazo.com/f38afdb4968b5c2198376ea259ff2db6

Gyazo

Thought this was interesting within 20 miles of shore..

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:51 PM

ETA to landfall- 1 to 3 hrs (11-1 am CDT) (edited)

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM

tons of tvs markers showin

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM

that Jared would be higher up, and not necessarily at ground level

Jared Thompson, DFW TX 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM

Hence why i said 20 miles of plus elevation

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM

ok

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM

Thats at about 4000 ft

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 26-Aug-20 10:52 PM

Grabbed this earlier (a bit before 6pm mountain time). That eye... So well defined, and looks sorta hexagon-ish shaped

3

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 10:53 PM

Still high winds at 4kft.

Infrared still showing well defined eye.

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 10:53 PM

Cursed range folding!

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 26-Aug-20 10:53 PM

first signs of weakening

finally seeing some rising central pressure

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:54 PM

Central pressure has only leveled off

Yup, NHC stayed with 130kts/939mb

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM

Cameron, LA is about to get smacked

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM

Likely will remain the same at landfall

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM

934 extrapolated on the new passs

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:55 PM

Even so, this is the strongest storm to impact this area since Rita

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 10:56 PM

It’s been 934 extrap for a few hours now

Really no sign of more deepening

See what the dropsonde gets

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:56 PM

Again, likely levelling off in intensity

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

Not going to affect much, as winds strengthen during landfall, even if the storm itself is weakening winds will be steady and still hit the area at full force.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

extrap means it's higher up in the cane right?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

And you'll still have extreme storm surge

2

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

It's not even really weakening

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

Yeah, looks like the storm is plateauing. Too close to landfall to really matter, but not worse is not worse.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

RI has just stopped

It's holding steady

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:57 PM

extrapolated essentially means estimated

usually it's investigated with dropsonde(s) to reach a conclusion

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

So we do have a cat 4 storm?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

Then imply a center fix

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

high up but omf

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

Yes

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

Yes Laura did not make Cat 5.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

We'll continue to have a CAT4 storm till landfall

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

I don't think it will be cat 5

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:58 PM

Ehhh, it got close, but 130kts is close enough to CAT5

literally ~6-7kts off

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

It could squeeze in a few more knots as the winds pile up at the coast to get to Cat 5, unlikely but possible.

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

where are yall seeing 130?

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

Not much difference between a HE Cat4/LE Cat5...

6

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

latest public advisory still keeps it at 150mph max sustained winds

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

Yea I agree

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

frictional convergence could aid the higher-level sustained winds mixing down closer to the surface

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 10:59 PM

Doesn't really matter

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM

130 knots Austin

Which is 150 mph

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM

So you could see those winds of 140-145kt (150-160kt gusts) make it below 100-200m

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM

@Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) Yea, totally. Same applies to a HE EF4/LE EF5.

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM

Well....it's subjective, but one difference between HE Cat4 and LE Cat5 is no parents suddenly calling me in a panic because they heard the storm has "gotten worse"

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:00 PM

NHC saying those people who stayed behind are gonna die

Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm.

8

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:01 PM

Yikes

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM

Wait, what? I just took 5 minutes to jump into comfy bed with my laptop in my lap to watch this, and I got 30+ message? Let me catch up what's happening. Give me a sec.

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM

They've been using that language since this afternoon; I'll never understand the mindset that makes people stay in the face of that. Only a few of them are people with medical issues who physically can't travel.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/745830682177306664/748375959123787797/atlpot.png

Does look like Laura may have reached maximum intensity for where it’s at

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:02 PM

Wow, that map checked out

That map allows for HE C4 and 930-40 mb

JakeK (Alexandria, LA) 26-Aug-20 11:03 PM

Are there still chasers south of Lake Charles? There were some earlier this evening.

JoshuaClark 26-Aug-20 11:04 PM

It is highly likely that nothing will remain in Cameron.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:04 PM

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) Laura will likely just maintain 130kts till landfall and undoubtedly weaken soon thereafter

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:05 PM

I agree with that assessment, nhc agrees to. Say they don’t expect additional strengthening

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:06 PM

Cameron was wiped out in Rita and Ike, I dunno if anyone will want to return a third time

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:06 PM

I just lost KPLC

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 26-Aug-20 11:07 PM

@JakeK (Alexandria, LA) I think some people stay to 'protect their house from looters/etc' ... ofcourse the issue being, there may not be a house to protect (or have protect them from the storm)

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:07 PM

We just broke 1000 mb

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:09 PM

Got a watch box just to the edge of Cameron

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:09 PM

Lake Charles reporting a 45 mph gust. (edited)

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:12 PM

NOAA just finished another run through the eye.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:12 PM

IVY you see that on Tropicaltidbits?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:13 PM

You mean the recon?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:13 PM

yea

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:13 PM

Yes... I do.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Aircraft Reconnaissance - Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:14 PM

Think they will do another run? its really close to landfall

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:14 PM

AF and NOAA are in storm atm.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:15 PM

They’ll be going until landfall

They made a final pass through Michael when part of the eye was on land

So they can do it

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:16 PM

AF made another pass through the eye.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:19 PM

How long until the eyewall makes landfall?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:20 PM

1-3 hours ETA

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 26-Aug-20 11:20 PM

2-3 hours most likely

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:20 PM

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=capl1&uom=E&tz=STN

NDBC - Station CAPL1 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from station CAPL1 (29.768N 93.343W) - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:23 PM

Some places along the LA coast are already recording 4 ft surges.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:23 PM

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8768094

Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents

Station home page

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:24 PM

Newest NW eyewall pass is way higher in that portion than it was before (edited)

933 mb extrap

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM

Um... higher? It was lower than the NHC update.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM

So do you think Laura is at MPI?

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM

Probably.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-Aug-20 11:27 PM

dvorak said she was at MPI, maybe alittle above it

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:28 PM

Wow already 6 ft surges at that one station

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:28 PM

Does anyone know what the largest wave recorded is yet? (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:28 PM

It’s near 100 feet

Wait for Laura? Or ever?

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM

For Laura

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM

Oh, a buoy earlier this morning got a 38 foot wave

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM

That's insane

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:29 PM

Not close to the largest

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM

Sure but either way it's impressive

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM

I dunno aboutt hat Zach if it's not coming from a source it not legit.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM

Sounds dubious

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM

I'll go with 38 from a bouy.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM

I think the euro was forecasting 50 foot

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 11:30 PM

Anyone have live camera feeds?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:31 PM

LSM

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:32 PM

Is there any online source for live satellite-sourced sea surface height?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:32 PM

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Live Storm Chasing, Watch Storm Chasers in Real Time!

Experience live storm chasing & watch top storm chasers stream dashboard video of tornados and extreme weather as it happens. Compatible with Android & iOS.

I-10 is shut down

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:33 PM

they did shut it down oh? (edited)

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:35 PM

I am showing chasers there

Greg Chamberlain (Orlando, FL) 26-Aug-20 11:35 PM

@Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) thanks!

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:38 PM

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Live Storm Chasing

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:38 PM

NOAA is finished. AF is still in storm.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:38 PM

6

5

Very insane drop just now

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:39 PM

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brad.arnold

Live Storm Chasing

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:40 PM

152 kt on E eye wall? @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:40 PM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1298824922534424576?s=19

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

Okay last one for this #Laura radar thread since I don’t see how it can be topped. There were 6 surrounding bins that were >200mph so I don’t think this outbound velocity was an error despite the value, 223mph! Basically KLCH may have sampled an intense NW eyewall mesovort...

5

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-Aug-20 11:40 PM

is that real?

the dropsonde?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:41 PM

@GanondorfMain7606 the drop got destroyed about a few hundred feet above the surface.

But the 951 mb level kept the wind

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:41 PM

https://www.twitch.tv/nicholasisabella

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:42 PM

Yep it's a real drop

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:42 PM

MmmHmm... That's intense.

That’s basically 175 mph from dropsonde (edited)

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:43 PM

Cameron LA

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 26-Aug-20 11:43 PM

Let see if they go cat 5 in the hourly update (edited)

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:44 PM

completely black

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 26-Aug-20 11:44 PM

Could be valid evidence for C5 if we got more like it but doubt they'll go with it

Hope so just for the statistics since the impact really won't change

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:44 PM

about 25NM from shoreline now. (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:45 PM

Brownsville's opting to put much of the LA coast under a tornado warning.

Pretty sure an EWW is not far behind.

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:45 PM

Hot towers on N side hitting the shore now.

Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 26-Aug-20 11:45 PM

yeah, beastmode drop just now

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:46 PM

Pressure drop?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 26-Aug-20 11:46 PM

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1298825030332297218?s=19

Jeff Lindner (@JeffLindner1)

Storm surge 5.94ft at Calcasieu Pass with winds gusting to 69mph #lawx #txwx

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:47 PM

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

Live Storm Chasing

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 26-Aug-20 11:47 PM

dropsonde

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

Got an image?

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

the drop was destroyed a few hundred feet above the surface

the 951 mb level kept the wind

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

I see now.

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

https://twitter.com/AnthonyMweather/status/1298829223394791424

Anthony M (@AnthonyMweather)

If I’m seeing this correctly a recent #dropsonde in the southwest eyewall of #hurricane #Laura just found #winds of 152kt at the surface, this would be #crazy if true but it’s honestly a little hard for me to believe. Can anyone confirm this? #wx #tropics #GOM

Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

getting an error on bretts stream

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

Sorry getting a little sleepy. I’m trying to focus. Coffee wasn’t helpful. (edited)

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:48 PM

Tornado watch for Cameron

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:49 PM

You mean warning?

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

TOR

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

https://twitter.com/spotternetwork/status/1298829503544938496?s=21

Spotter Network Inc (@spotternetwork)

Evnt 3 miles SSW of LAKE ARTHUR, LA @ 03:00 UTC TOR>-Confirmed Tornado on the ground near Bell City. This tornado is rain wrapped and very

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

Not watch

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

Well shit

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

my bad warning

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

yeah, warning. almost the entire state of LA is in tornado watch at this point.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 26-Aug-20 11:50 PM

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:51 PM

Getting pink dot again on N hot towers.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:53 PM

Gust of 61 mph reported in Lake Charles.

Max (Saint John, NB) 26-Aug-20 11:54 PM

EWW

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-Aug-20 11:55 PM

932.6 mb extrap. 147 knots FL

The lowest extrap and highest flight level yet

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 26-Aug-20 11:55 PM

I'm back, wtf happened sounds like it got to borderline Cat 5

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-Aug-20 11:55 PM

https://twitter.com/iembot_lch/status/1298831122604818433

IEMBot LCH (@iembot_lch)

LCH issues Extreme Wind Warning for Acadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Vermilion [LA] and Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange [TX] till Aug 27, 1:00 AM CDT https://t.co/fwt6KvMiMa

7

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:56 PM

still cat4

or 4 cats

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 26-Aug-20 11:56 PM

There's the EWW.

And some parts of that warning area are also under a tornado warning. >.<

GanondorfMain7606 26-Aug-20 11:57 PM

Aaannnd my internet disconnected so I’m not getting anything on laptop other than dinosaur game

7

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Aug-20 11:57 PM

@GanondorfMain7606 lmao my kids luv that game.

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:00 AM

Lmao. I turned off the laptop and switched to LTE on my phone so I’ll just be here on Discord for now

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:02 AM

lightning associated with those new convective towers isn't abating

Guess Laura is deciding to NOT stop intensification

4

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:04 AM

144 knots flight level, 118 knots SFMR in the NE quad.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:04 AM

https://twitter.com/ChaserTV/status/1298832960976809984

ChaserTV (@ChaserTV)

The red blob? Yeah, that’s birds. #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/mLOLcD1Ip9

2

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:04 AM

Guess the E quadrant is the strongest part of the hurricane currently

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:05 AM

Haven’t approached those 133 knot readings in awhile

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:06 AM

Definitely not as strong a case as Michael but it certainly might have been 140kt with several more hours over water

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM

Using a storm motion of 140/60 and putting this into the LCH VWP-derived hodograph yields extreme 0-1 SRH of over 1100 m2/s2.

4

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM

hard to see, but there's at least 4 evident mesovortices in the eye

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM

from SPC MD

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:07 AM

https://twitter.com/tlyzawx/status/1298833945547636736 YIKES

Tony Lyza (@tlyzawx)

More eyewall mesovortex-induced clown numbers

Those mesovortices are no joke

That's ~215 mph

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:08 AM

I’m back. I’ve been having issues Internet so I’m on LTE for now. Damn those mesovortices

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:08 AM

They will significantly enhance ground winds and maybe even produce tornadoes upon landfall

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 12:08 AM

The aforementioned VWP the SPC MD that Jim mentioned is referring to.

2

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:09 AM

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:09 AM

No question there’s very powerful shear

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:10 AM

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1298832607925415936?s=19 What. the. hell.?

Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather)

"From the sheriff's office in Vermillion Parish listen to this and I quote, 'For those who didn't evacuate, write your name, address, social security number and next of kin and put it in a ziplock bag in your pocket.'" - @JimCantore https://t.co/yxRBeEoHbD

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:10 AM

0400Z/11:00AM CDT update has Laura still at 150 mph and 938 mb min. central pressure.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:10 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYqR6PtVaOw

hurricanetrack

Hurricane Laura Landfall (2020) Part 6 - Storm Field Work - Vehicle...

Mark Sudduth, Greg Nordstrum, Mike Farrow, and Brent Lynn are facing landfall of Major Hurricane Laura in Southwestern Lousiana. Follow along with them and see what happens. Mark and Mike are riding it out in Shreveport, LA. Brent and Greg will be riding it out near Orang...

all cams up at once

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:12 AM

I don't even blame them. I understand there are select few that can't physically get out but staying in when you are being warned there will be "unsurvivable storm surge" and "catastrophic winds" would make me want to evacuate if I could

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:13 AM

https://twitter.com/ChaserTV/status/1298834479939760129

ChaserTV (@ChaserTV)

23 miles out and moving at 16mph. The surge will be immediate. #HurricaneLaura

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298835210591756288

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

#Cam8 in Cameron Louisiana GIF animation of earlier vs short time ago when we caught lightning to show the water level. https://t.co/Fa5c7pKI7m

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:14 AM

I'm honestly

Very very worried about chasers rn

This isn't a storm to screw around with in that terrain

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:15 AM

there hunkering down in parking garages. The ones I know.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:15 AM

126 knot SFMR. Highest one in awhile

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM

4

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM

Apparently this is where Reed found himself

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM

Wow even more impressive than the last

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM

mean wind profile is consistently 140kts+

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM

151 knot mean lowest 150 meters

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:16 AM

Same with the E eyewall dropsonde

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:17 AM

Wait, that one made it all the way?

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:17 AM

142 kT at surface

E eye wall dropsonde got destroyed before hitting the surface

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM

Emergency update?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM

Remember these are instantaneous winds

Not sustained

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM

Unwarned\

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM

Can’t atm. Internet disconnected

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM

Likely gusts getting picked up

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:18 AM

Interestingly though, those are uniform and could represent a mean wind sustained

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298836166263951361 lmao

John Homenuk (@jhomenuk)

Let’s review some parameters from the most recent SPC mesoscale discussion near the landfall of #Laura: “Putting a storm motion of 140/60 into LCH VWP-derived hodograph yields 0-1km SRH over 1100 m2/s2.” It was at this moment that I immediately CC’ed @CameronJNixon.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM

That’s the counter argument so yeah

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM

Yeah, I hope that's a gust, SFMRs aren't getting that high so

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM

Not saying it's that strong, but it's something to watch (edited)

Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:19 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUMSp4sqrlM&feature=youtu.be

Texas Storm Chasers

Category 4 Hurricane LAURA Impacting Lake Charles, LA - LIVE

Join Alex and Jason as they ride out Major Hurricane Laura from a well-built parking garage in Lake Charles, LA. They scoped out this location before the storm started and have several days of supplies to self-support themselves if needed. The stream may buffer at times due to...

https://www.facebook.com/michael.phelps.5473/videos/10158897879723319/?notif_id=1598501733657668&notif_t=live_video_explicit

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1rmxPYqmYpVKN

Jeff Piotrowski @Jeff_Piotrowski

Tornado warnings now.

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 12:24 AM

Anything on our girl ?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:25 AM

Just some crazy dropsondes

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:25 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298838703985635328

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

As others have alluded to this dropsonde in the northern eyewall of #Laura is nuts. After adjusting the winds for gusting, bringing them down to the sfc, & considering undersampling, this supports sustained winds of ~135 kts (155 mph). #Laura is nearly a category 5 hurricane

8

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:28 AM

I get the feeling that post-analysis is likely to put this hurricane at a Cat 4.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:28 AM

Well that's setting up to be a massive constant argument in the post season on whether it deserves an upgrade or not lol

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:29 AM

It'll be a difference of 5 mph, which isn't going to mean much for the impacts.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:29 AM

^

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 27-Aug-20 12:29 AM

It won't but people will argue anyway

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:30 AM

87mph gust rn in Calcasiu Pass

Expect stuff to hit the fan bad in about 20 mins

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:30 AM

Eyewall is just about to make landfall.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:30 AM

It's really important for statistics but not at all important for the cataclysmic impact ongoing at the moment and the countless thousands of people who will be impacted

Massively unprecedented either way

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:31 AM

https://calcasieu.info/live-traffic-cameras-go-online-in-southwest-louisiana/

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:31 AM

The storm surge will really start to kick in soon

Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 27-Aug-20 12:31 AM

i see the eyewall roughly 16 miles out, no? so another hour or so?

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM

I see the eyewall touching the shore on KLCH.

Cameron's about to get nailed.

Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM

https://www.twitch.tv/txwxman1

txwxman1 - Twitch

Adventurer, Storm Chaser, Foodie, Goofball. paypal.me/nickolasdcook

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM

148 knot Flight level wind. Highest yet

Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM

ahh yea, i see now

Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:32 AM

more streams

https://www.twitch.tv/jennifermcmahan

JenniferMcMahan - Twitch

Storm Chaser/Multi-Media Journalist with SVLMediaLLC (StormViewLive) #TwitchStormChasers

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 12:35 AM

Might have just barely managed to reach cat 5

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 12:36 AM

https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/1298840199590481922 npot sure how accurate this is

Wx Geek (@Wx_Geek)

Latest dropsonde data reveals 142 kt (~163 mph) surface winds w/ 146 kt (~168 mph) winds just—and I mean just—above the surface. Provided that this is a correct measurement, #Laura is likely a Category 5 hurricane.

2

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 12:36 AM

https://twitter.com/nwsshreveport/status/1298839399963201537?s=21

NWS Shreveport (@NWSShreveport)

GREAT NEWS! Our radar is back up and running at normal operations! We thank you all for our patience and understanding! Stay Safe!

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 12:37 AM

Oh good, glad they got that radar back online! I don't think the Lake Charles radar stands much of a chance with it dealing with the worst side of the storm

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:39 AM

New FFW.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:40 AM

https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/1298841784324415488

Bill Karins (@BillKarins)

Looks like we lost the data from the tide station near Cameron, LA when the northern eye hit.

Christine Veerkamp (GER) 27-Aug-20 12:46 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RPkb5uLbpU&feature=push-lbss&attr_tag=st2ml_Ivc_Yxh5xR%3A6

Tornado Alley Video

Hurricane Laura

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:46 AM

Measured Gusts in excess of 90 mph at Calcasieu pass, LA (edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 12:47 AM

inner eyewall making its way inland

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:47 AM

just about there

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:49 AM

89 MPH gust reported 2 W of Cameron.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:50 AM

I’m hoping the anemometers don’t fail

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:50 AM

Some might.

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:50 AM

https://twitter.com/Or20182/status/1298785676842774529 5 tweets posted seconds before disaster

Or2018 (@Or20182)

This Hurricane Laura will probably blow over. I refuse to leave my home on the beach in Holly Beach, LA

5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298845162672619520

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

UPDATE: Conditions deteriorating rapidly in Lake Charles with winds gusting over 70 mph. DEPLOYED infrasound sensor of @ChasinSpin to measure the heartbeat of #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/6DnxJqa86B

Likes

130

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM

Most anemometers sold to the public are not meant to stand anything past 90 mph, 110+ many will break.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM

This was from a buoy.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM

mine does

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM

Significant velocities approaching the shore

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:51 AM

Well, nice expensive ones can take a beating.

The common PWS ones will break 100+

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:52 AM

Yeah, but even those can fail in 150mph+ winds.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:52 AM

yes they will

lol just gett hte infared ones

my kestrel is rated at 131mph rated.

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 12:54 AM

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:54 AM

Winds in Cameron are probably going up very fast.

Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 27-Aug-20 12:56 AM

some bigger gusts here now (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:57 AM

Stay safe.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:57 AM

Still 150 mph at the 12am update

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:58 AM

At this point any upgrade to Cat 5 will be in post, right now shit's going downhill really quickly.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 12:58 AM

In post or we get a coastline surface measurement from Cameron or Calcasieu pass

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 12:59 AM

There are not many weather stations in that area.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM

Cameron gusting to 110 mph now

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM

Really don't like people like this. https://twitter.com/ravi4bharat/status/1298843086076829696 (edited)

Ravi Chaturvedi (@Ravi4Bharat)

Another view at Lake Charles. #HurricaneLaura @WeatherGoinWILD https://t.co/JhXZnjUTXi

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM

where are you getting that data @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM

hate people likes this.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:00 AM

A met posted it in another server

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:01 AM

Comment removed for posting factually?

The eyewall did contract a little in the last radar pass.

Not saying it is going to intensify, but it will increase the amount of time Cameron will be in this.

Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY) 27-Aug-20 01:02 AM

Heres what im seeing for mesowest, maybe the data is averaged or delayed

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:03 AM

939 mb dropsonde with 15 knot winds, first 930s drop in a few hours

Sustained winds of 85 mph at Calcasieu pass

Gusts to 105 mph

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:04 AM

Alex I delete ur comment?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:04 AM

I don't know, it just vanished. (edited)

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 01:04 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298847934780526594?s=21

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

Fwiw, #KLCH radar inbound velocities in the eastern eyewall of #Laura are up to 175 mph ~900m above the sfc. Reduction of those winds to the sfc would result in a max sfc wind of ~160 mph, making #Laura a category 5 hurricane. Impacts wont change regardless of semantics tho #...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM

they are gonna have to ret-con this into a cat 5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM

Sorry i was trying to delete mine, lol. My appolgies. Was tryignt o figure out your comment. lol

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM

Oh I see, it's all good lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM

dropsones, inbounds all showing 160-165mph when reducted toe surface

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:05 AM

I am concerned for Holly Beach, they won't get an eye break, also all those small towns in the E eyewall that also won't get a break.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:06 AM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM

where are yall getting that data for the meso site?

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM

Holly Beach has a off shore wind tho, that may help with surge

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=capl1&uom=E&tz=STN

NDBC - Station CAPL1 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from station CAPL1 (29.768N 93.343W) - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA.

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:07 AM

Surge will pick up for them when it moves inland, and after a long wind beating as well.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:08 AM

It’s at this buoy station but this is about 10 minutes more delayed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:08 AM

A lot of that farmland in the Eastern eyewall without an eye break will probably not be arable for a long time.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:08 AM

If Laura's deemed a cat 5, that would make it only two years between two consecutive cat 5 landfalls in the US. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM

US Landfalls you mean? (edited)

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM

Yeah.

Zach C. (Kelowna, BC) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM

Am I going crazy, or are all these mesovortices? Not 100% sure

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM

Those are mesovorticies

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:09 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_lch/status/1298848146995343361

IEMBot LCH (@iembot_lch)

At 11:52 PM CDT, 2 W Cameron [Cameron Co, LA] MESONET reports HURRICANE. 110 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED VIA WEATHERFLOW STATION IN CAMERON. https://t.co/9kmidGBUOu

Here’s the 110 mph gust at Cameron

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 01:10 AM

3 years in a row, Michael 2018, Dorian 2019, Laura??? 2020

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:10 AM

Hope that station doesn't go out, but it seems more likely than not

Dorian didn't make official U.S. landfall as a Category 5 keep in mind

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM

https://twitter.com/cyriljhicks/status/1298850049770680320

Cyril Hicks (@cyriljhicks)

Camera 8 is literally underwater yet it still manages to broadcast. Cam 8 has the resolve to make it through 2020. #cam8 #camera8 #laura #laurahurricane

4

Jack | (Findlay, OH) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM

If you're talking whole Atlantic, 4 years in a row counting Laura. Irma and Maria

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM

Wasn’t Matthew the year before that

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298847245689856002

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

Just before midnight in Sulphur #Louisiana. Starting to rip. #Hurricane #LAURA https://t.co/vi9b0hCdXX

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM

Don't remember

Jack | (Findlay, OH) 27-Aug-20 01:11 AM

Assuming this is referring to landfall

Matthew was the year before yes

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:12 AM

I thought maybe Cat 4, but I don't exactly remember

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:12 AM

Calcasieu pass now gusting to 110 mph

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:13 AM

Imagine the readings once those mesovorticies get there.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:13 AM

Anyone know what the status of the Lake Charles Sasol plant is? Was it shut down well in advance?

Just kinda thinking about what they make there and the implications if there's a spill

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:13 AM

And Laura's making landfall.

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 27-Aug-20 01:14 AM

Cameron is almost in the eye

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 01:15 AM

I bet the Cameron station is already down

Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 01:17 AM

https://www.12newsnow.com/article/weather/hurricane/hurricane-laura-live-coverage-updates/502-dd0e08d3-f891-4d6c-8705-fe95516b7098

Watch live: Hurricane Laura makes landfall as 'catastrophic' storm

The storm is expected to cause catastrophic damage as it hits the Louisiana and Texas coasts.

Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY) 27-Aug-20 01:18 AM

Heres the best data i can get from cameron, feel free to post your links too: https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CAPL1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:19 AM

115 mph gust at Calcasieu pass

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 01:21 AM

https://twitter.com/BreakingChesky/status/1298850796981948416?s=20

Morgan Chesky (@BreakingChesky)

In minutes, #Laura’s eye will be reaching Cameron Parish, where I met 87 year old Henry McCall this morning. I told him the storm surge was being labeled “unsurvivable.” He told me he’d probably ride it out in his home, sitting atop steel pylons, 20’ up. I sure hope he lef...

cameron underwater, camera died (edited)

5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:23 AM

Meanwhile the small town of Grand Chenier is in the eastern eyewall, probably going to be in it for a while, and possibly might not get a break (and if it does a very short one).

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 01:23 AM

I believe that Hurricane Track has their cameras mounted 9 feet up, for reference

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM

Cameron probably getting the mesovorticies right now

Almost in the eye

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM

So what is the status of the cane?

cat 4 ?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM

yep

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM

High end Cat 4

150 mph making landfall

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM

4 cats

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:24 AM

talk of retrograde cat 5 as well

Craig Millard (Starkville, MS) 27-Aug-20 01:26 AM

Those western eyewall mesovortices will likely pass through/near Holly Beach

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 01:26 AM

eye wall looks open

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:26 AM

A little dry air entrainment, but at this point it matters not

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:27 AM

Lake Charles METAR reporting 62 KT gust.

Sustained winds 45 KT.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:27 AM

Calcasieu pass up to 103 knot gusts (118 mph)

Sustained 70 knots

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:28 AM

Hackberry in eyewall, Lake Charles radar reading 110mph winds aloft overhead

Eyewall closing up

Landfall back-bands building.

She's gonna pound these areas for a while.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 01:29 AM

Forward movement?

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:30 AM

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1298854379974529024

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

Last moments before massive and sudden surge hit our camera in Cameron Louisiana #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/r2dDM8904v

Zach C. (Kelowna, BC) 27-Aug-20 01:34 AM

Had to have counted at least half a dozen mesovortices. Cameron and areas west are getting battered by them

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:35 AM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298855726404833280

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

12:25 am. Just outside the eyewall. Last drive before I hunker down. #Hurricane #LAURA in Sulphur #Louisiana https://t.co/gcQT2ucmzi

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:36 AM

125 mph gust at Calcasieu pass

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:36 AM

...I think I just saw a car drive over the I-10 bridge on the camera feed

yeah, confirmed, it showed up on the i-10 at ryan street camera right after. looked like an SUV or pickup truck.

3

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 01:37 AM

Things are getting really hairy on Reed's stream

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:37 AM

Do you have a link @Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK)

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:37 AM

https://511la.org/

511LA| LA Traffic | Trip Planner | Road Conditions

Provides up to the minute traffic and transit information for Louisiana. View the real time traffic map with travel times, traffic accident details, traffic cameras and other road conditions. Plan your trip and get the fastest route taking into account current traffic conditions.

1

using that to jump between the cameras fast. hit cameras over on the map legend and you can click from camera to camera.

both i-10 bridge cameras just went offline though

I think all the DOTD cameras in lake charles are down now

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM

https://twitter.com/WeatherFlowCHAS/status/1298856754445418496?s=20

Shea Gibson (@WeatherFlowCHAS)

Pressure just bottomed out at 936mb's at Cameron. Now we see how calm it will be in the eye. #HurricaneLaura

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM

Well I saw one car lol

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM

The eye shots are gonna be beautiful.

The really muddied up rusty silver lining, at least.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:39 AM

KLCH radar now on generator power

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:40 AM

At least the Waffle House is open

3

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:41 AM

Might lose KLCH soon.

Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 01:41 AM

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 01:43 AM

3D view of the eyewall on GR2 (edited)

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 01:43 AM

Land has entered the eye

Its the endgame boys

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:45 AM

Just turned off WeatherNation to go sleep. Something oddly familiar and comforting about hurricane coverage.

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:45 AM

Beats hearing about COVID and elections every second of the day to be honest.

10

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 01:46 AM

Calcasieu pass 127 mph gust

Andrew de la Garza(Lafayette,LA) 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM

OOOOOOOOF https://i.imgur.com/mGYVlVr.jpg

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM

Does, doesn't it?

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM

Who ordered a Large TOR

2

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:47 AM

Pronounced boot-heel, or booth-eel?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM

So we got Landfall?

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM

Looks that way.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM

Since Laura is making landfall her backside is starting to build, southern eyewall closed and thickening and bands on her back half are building like what happens on most landfalling canes. She's only halfway done. (edited)

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:48 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:49 AM

Recon is actually entering the eye one last time now

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:49 AM

Would that be USAF or NOAA? Because I thought NOAA called it a day.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:49 AM

USAF

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:50 AM

https://twitter.com/TheTXWXchaser/status/1298859599567740928

Marcus Diaz (@TheTXWXchaser)

@NWSLakeCharles conditions deteriorating rapidly in Sulphur, LA with major and frequent power flashes. #wxtwitter #StormHour #HurricaneLaura #lawx https://t.co/tlzx1r23U7

3

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:51 AM

Lake Charles Nuclear Plant has reportedly started to flood

2

3

4

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:51 AM

If that is the case, power outages inbound

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:52 AM

source is 'snapchat streams' so take it with a grain of salt

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 01:53 AM

Surprised we haven't been seeing higher sustained

But that's probably because the instruments died

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:54 AM

WFO Tampa bay (for st charles) declares landfall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:54 AM

Maximum winds that came onshore will be determined by analyzing the damage.

Which is how Michael got upgraded

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:55 AM

Jeff P. says that Lake Charles airport reported a wind gust of 105 mph. I think the METAR feed from KLCH is down since it hasn't updated in about an hour, though.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 01:55 AM

https://twitter.com/Txstormaddict/status/1298861305550508038

michael beard (@Txstormaddict)

(Screen grab) seeing a bunch of power flashes around downtown Beaumont right now @NWSHouston

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:55 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1298861556470448128

NWS Lake Charles (@NWSLakeCharles)

An extreme wind warning is in effect for Lake Charles LA, Sulphur LA, Orange TX until 3:00 AM CDT for extremely dangerous hurricane winds. Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to an interior room or shelter NOW!.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 01:56 AM

Landfall probably going to be declared with the advisory realase.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:56 AM

Okay, did some digging - the thing that people were reporting as 'nuclear power plant' is actually fueled by rice hulls (Agrielectric Plant), but there is apparently a Westinghouse facility in Lake Charles that assembles reactor components. That might have been where the story came from.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:57 AM

Confirmed 104 mph gust at Lake Charles airport.

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 01:58 AM

Because of those speeds, the Delta flights from Las Vegas to Seattle have been canceled.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:58 AM

About to be more. Eyewall very close.

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 01:59 AM

Yeah, just check the high density obs on mesowest for the 5 minute intervals until the KLCH ASOS goes down

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:59 AM

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

9

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 01:59 AM

Lake Charles Nuclear Plant has reportedly started to flood

@Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK)

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:00 AM

Debunked, did some digging and there is no nuclear plant.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 27-Aug-20 02:00 AM

3.6. Not great, not horrifying.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 02:02 AM

Alright, I'm gonna head to bed now, goodnight. Hopefully no fatalities occurred/will occur, but given the immense power of it, it would not shock me if some do happen (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:02 AM

I think we just lost KLCH radar.

7

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:02 AM

There were 2 fatalities via rip currents from Laura in Florida earlier today (edited)

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 27-Aug-20 02:04 AM

Damn, that sucks.

Terry Lamb (Wilkes-Barre, PA) 27-Aug-20 02:04 AM

@B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ I understood that reference.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:05 AM

KLCH not updating

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:05 AM

Both KLCH and KPOE are not updating now, which would suggest communication failure.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:06 AM

KPOE might still be online

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:06 AM

nop

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:06 AM

KLCH is gone for sure.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM

Lost it as soon as the eyewall hit it

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM

I wouldn't say that

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM

All of the streams down where it initially came ashore are offline

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM

It probally shut down

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:07 AM

Hopefully it's just a case of all those people losing service and nothing worse

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:08 AM

KHGX is the only one

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 27-Aug-20 02:08 AM

https://twitter.com/Or20182

Or2018 (@Or20182)

Tweets

125

Followers

15

this reads like trolling

and i really hope it is trolling

even though if it is its absolutely disgusting

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:09 AM

It most likely is trolling, Last tweet 48 mins ago I don't see how comms would even be up by that point.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:09 AM

Stephanie Abrams just narrowly missed a large piece of debris on TWC while live. (edited)

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 27-Aug-20 02:10 AM

is there a clip of that?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 02:10 AM

https://twitter.com/spotternetwork/status/1298865100560969729?s=21

Spotter Network Inc (@spotternetwork)

Spotr 3 miles S of WESTLAKE, LA @ 06:07 UTC Wind (80mph) [M]>-Measured 143.7 mph

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:10 AM

I saw it live, I’ll see if I can find a clip

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 02:11 AM

KLCH METAR updated.

Reporting 57 kt sustained with a gust of 85 kt.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:12 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6w8ejkY8I7M&feature=youtu.be

Psi Iota

[LIVE] The Weather Channel - Hurricane Laura - CAT4 Almost 5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:12 AM

I don't know what to make of that twitter account, it's a really.... strange.... account for sure.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:12 AM

Scroll a bit back on that stream

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM

I think it might be a troll account, they claim to have been present at literally every newsworthy even this year.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM

looks like the folks who were on top the parking garage in lake charles are relocating down to not be on the roof

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM

Lake Charles just lost power finally on Reed's

Those power lines fought a good fight

6

4

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:13 AM

lots of transformers failing visible on the stream too

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 02:14 AM

TWC almost had a reporter hit by a bit of debris

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:14 AM

KLCH is actually a top trend on Twitter lol

5

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:16 AM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298866477907488769

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

In it. https://t.co/k8GsOQPRLd

Likes

111

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:17 AM

Here’s the best clip I found

https://twitter.com/RevengOfThe4th/status/1298865436604477440?s=20

Robby Chavez Ⓜ️ (@RevengOfThe4th)

Did anyone just catch this on the weather channel? Whoaa. #HurricaneLaura #HurricanLaura #laura https://t.co/iKGmp4C72Q

You can see it more clearly there. It was glass shattering

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:20 AM

Yeah looks like it

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:20 AM

So far thankfully no reports of water rescues but I imagine people near the coast can't get in to 911

Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:21 AM

There will be no water rescues for hours sadly.... Even the Sherriff already stated if you did not evacuate, Take a paper write down your info and next of kin and put it in a ziplock bag

and stick it in your pocket (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:24 AM

Back half of eyewall approaching Cameron

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:25 AM

128 mph gust at lake Charles

6

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:27 AM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1298869360946294784?s=19

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

Getting raked. #Hurricane #LAURA in Sulphur #Louisiana https://t.co/tmbHEHB9FG

Likes

174

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:30 AM

https://twitter.com/CarolinaWxGroup/status/1298869742099484672

Carolina Weather Group (@CarolinaWxGroup)

128 mph wind gusts in Lake Charles Regional Airport. #HurricaneLaura #laura #lawx

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:30 AM

A/C units just got ripped off the building next to the parking garage.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:31 AM

Jeff P had to move his car

Almost got hit by flying windows

And a car behind him flipped

He's behind a concrete wall now

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:33 AM

any idea what he's using to get signal out?

nevermind just got my answer, he's using cell phone. call comes in, data drops.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:34 AM

https://twitter.com/SaraSneath/status/1298665444405108736?s=20

Sara Sneath (@SaraSneath)

Among the many things I'm worried about with Hurricane Laura is the I-10 bridge in Lake Charles. It has a sufficiency rating of 7.6 out of 100. To put that in context, the Interstate 35 West bridge in Minneapolis that collapsed in 2007 had a sufficiency rating of 50.

Retweets

953

Likes

2019

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:34 AM

jeffp streaming?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:34 AM

Wonder how this bridge is holding up in lake Charles (edited)

Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RPkb5uLbpU

Tornado Alley Video

Hurricane Laura

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM

yep, he's still online

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM

got a link?

Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM

Already dropped it

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM

That youtube link right there

He's about halfway through the eye wall right now

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:35 AM

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair

Live Storm Chasing

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

I see your link and raise you Brett Adair

So it made landfall as a cat 4?

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:36 AM

O___o where in the world is Brett holed up?

Lee W (Yazoo City,MS) 27-Aug-20 02:37 AM

Yep

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:37 AM

He is in Lake Charles

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:38 AM

More of the view he's got. Is he looking out the entrance to a parking garage?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:38 AM

Yeah he didn't wanna risk death by surge going anything closer

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:38 AM

is that water on Jeff P's feed?

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:39 AM

In the air? Yeah. They're talking about how it 'smells like oil' now though.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:39 AM

https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1298870981776281600

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

All hell is breaking loose. Inner eyewall of #HurricaneLaura . Lake Charles, Louisiana. https://t.co/IeZY70ZOG2

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:41 AM

Jeff getting the full force of the winds now

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:41 AM

Cantore getting wrecked by leaves.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 02:41 AM

https://twitter.com/NycStormChaser/status/1298872989589663750?s=19

Nicholas Isabella (@NycStormChaser)

WATCHING THE LAKE CHARLES CIVIC CENTER FALL APART IN FRONT OF US. EVERY SINGLE GLASS WINDOW US BREAKING OFF AND SHATTERING IN MID AIR. HURRICANE FORCE NOW #LakeCharles #HurricaneLaura

8

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:42 AM

Lake Charles may get one a bit of the eye. Not all of it.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:45 AM

is it just me or is the eye wall thickening as it passes overtop of lake charles?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:46 AM

Lost jeff P

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:46 AM

It's cause journalists keep calling him

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:48 AM

Cameron entering back eyewall

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:49 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298873383690604544

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:50 AM

did recon release any data on their most recent flight through?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:51 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 02:51 AM

Calcasieu pass with a 102 mph gust in the south eyewall

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 02:52 AM

And 11 feet surge

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 02:52 AM

jeffs number apparently got leaked on 4chan

5

that's why he's getting spam called..

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 02:52 AM

sigh

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 02:53 AM

I second that sigh

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 02:57 AM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1298877061252222977

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

BREAkING! Buildings gutted in Lake Charles LA in powerful eye wall of #HurricaneLaura @RadarOmega_WX @ChasinSpin https://t.co/wP3fPyREIZ

https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1298876982030147584

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

CENTER EYEWALL CAT 4! This is what I’ve wanted for 5 years!

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 03:00 AM

This could arguably be the worst Gulf coast storm since Katrina in 2005

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:00 AM

Jeff P's stream is dead

just as the eye was about to come over

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:01 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_lch/status/1298876952879624194

IEMBot LCH (@iembot_lch)

LAKE CHARLES MUNI,LA (LCH) ASOS reports gust of 116 knots (133.5 mph) from E @ 0642Z -- KLCH 270653Z AUTO 11085G115KT 1/4SM FG VV006 25/ A2831 RMK AO2 PK WND 100116/0642 RAEMM PRESFR SLP594 P0013 T0250 PWINO $

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 03:02 AM

YIKES

Reed's trying to drive rn

Almost got hit by a tree branch

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:07 AM

https://twitter.com/BillBorghoff/status/1298879059435368448

Bill Borghoff (@BillBorghoff)

Wow.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:08 AM

Lake Charles is in the eye

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:09 AM

Hard to believe there is like 0 wind in Houston.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:09 AM

Laura took it all. She's selfish like that. (edited)

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:10 AM

Lol yeah. Nothing at my parents house.

And glad my twin sister name is Lara not Laura lmao

Lake Charles will barely be in the eye. Yikes

4

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:16 AM

Looks like the eye is about to break open on radar

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:16 AM

Reed hasn't said a word for nearly 5 minutes on his livestream when the gusts picked up quite a lot

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 03:17 AM

Did he leave the car? (edited)

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:17 AM

I think so, and a huge piece of metal just flew into his car

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:18 AM

That metal, uh wow

Intense stuff

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:18 AM

I don't know where he went to, I assume a Twitter video. looks like he's driving now though possibly

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 03:19 AM

someone in reeds stream chat is watching their office building get destroyed

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:20 AM

https://twitter.com/txstormchasers/status/1298881910245130241?s=21

Texas Storm Chasers (@TxStormChasers)

Sounds like a personal weather station (Davis) measured a 137 MPH gust in Lake Charles before it was destroyed. Absolutely horrific situation with tornado-like damage over the entire city. Probably will look like Panama City did after Michael.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:20 AM

what is the link to reed stream?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:21 AM

https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmer2.0/live_videos

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist

Reed Timmer Extreme Meteorologist, Golden, Colorado. 1,332,560 likes · 174,272 talking about this. Extreme meteorologist who chases tornadoes hurricanes & blizzards! PhD in meteorology from OU

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:22 AM

snapmap is insane. There's a video of some guy with his hand cut open covered in blood from debris

getting hit by debris

seems like reed is ok

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 03:27 AM

Reed appears to have abandoned dom fore

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:30 AM

Alright I'm calling it a night. First day of grad school today. Oof always some kind of weather event when something important happens lmao.

Max (Saint John, NB) 27-Aug-20 03:30 AM

yep, reed 100% abandoned dom 4

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:32 AM

Think he tag teamed to go take video in the actual eye

since it wobbled westward

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:32 AM

Clearly I need to go back and watch some footage

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:33 AM

left his stream up of near eyewall conditions

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:33 AM

Believe I missed out on the actual meat of the eyewall footage

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 27-Aug-20 03:34 AM

there were a few good peak action shots from the guy on YT on the rooftop, from Reed, and TWC as far as I know. Justin/iCyclone or w/e his tag is also had some good footage, of course

checking snapmap for any more notable footage

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:35 AM

I got some marathoning to do this weekend clearly

From the looks of it, every bit as violent as feared

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 03:36 AM

THEY'RE BACK

Or just drove by

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:39 AM

https://twitter.com/_Radarr/status/1298886841920299008/photo/1

Ryan Darr (@_Radarr)

More damage occurring, big problems here in Lake Charles #HurricaneLaura

https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1298886461132079105

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

We absolutely have to be in the mesovorticies of the eastern Eyewall. We have partially clear skies overhead, no rain, but brutal winds 100+ mph continue.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:43 AM

Refinery about to go boom according to Reed'

reed's feed

sorry brett's feed

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:51 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298890735316602880

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

I can 100% assure you guys this place has been shredded. We’re venturing around the casino. For a lack of better words, It looks like every single tree has been hit with a giant weed eater.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 03:55 AM

Gotta love Reed getting back in the car

Sitting for 30 seconds without saying a word

Then leaving again

If they need to switch cars you think he'd grab the camera

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 03:59 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298891643651854338

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

2:50 am. The sounds of the eye. One of the nicest I've penetrated. Wanna be in it forever. #Hurricane #LAURA in Sulphur #Louisiana https://t.co/8lfYE79YtU

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1298885874713853952

WeatherNation (@WeatherNation)

SOUND UP Listen to the wind inside this casino in Lake Charles as Hurricane Laura rips across the region with reports of winds over 120 mph! We're live with team coverage as the storm continues to impact the coastline and move inland. #HurricaneLaura #LAwx https://t.c...

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https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1298891957142515713

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

MAJOR eye wall winds in Lake Charles #HurricaneLaura https://t.co/wgtDlHxePl

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 04:37 AM

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1mnGelmOMQoKX

Chris Jackson @ChrisJacksonSC

Southern Eyewall of #HurricaneLaura storm surge beginning around the Golden Nugget Casino. #lawx — Lake Charles, LA, United States

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 05:09 AM

Fell asleep then woke back up with Internet restored. Her eye is well inland.

She may keep producing tors well inland...

Rainfall also well inland.

NHS states that she’s still 120 mph Cat 3 with eye way inland.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-Aug-20 05:30 AM

Well this has been insane lol so much so the adrenaline crash is happening and the winds are still ripping

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 27-Aug-20 06:13 AM

Laura now a cat 2 as of 6 am est

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 06:39 AM

All the attention is on Lake Charles but I am really concerned with what we are going to see from Holly Beach and Cameron

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 07:12 AM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 07:21 AM

https://twitter.com/Tornado_Steejo/status/1298936776120303619

Stephen Jones (@Tornado_Steejo)

Communication towers are completely collapsed in downtown Lake Charles, LA #lawx #HurricaneLaura

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 27-Aug-20 08:22 AM

https://youtu.be/VpCDiZY4-qc

Brandon Ivey

Significant Damage - Hurricane Laura - Sulphur, Louisiana

Hurricane Laura hit Sulphur, Louisiana overnight, leaving significant damage in its wake all across town. Video was shot during the early morning hours of August 27th, 2020. #Hurricane Laura #Sulphur #Louisiana #LAWX

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 08:26 AM

Morning.., looks like she’s Cat 1 by now.

Hey eye is already clouded over from satellite.

Also, it’s pretty cloudy here from Laura’s circulation.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 27-Aug-20 08:43 AM

What major events did I miss last night?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 08:58 AM

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298965278106292224

Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski)

Breaking news: I found a man in the middle of the bay in storm surge water south side of I-10 house clasped. He was trapped under walls.He is hyperthermia have another local taken him to mother house. Finding people in the water. #lawx

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 08:59 AM

https://twitter.com/bryanwx/status/1298966584002777089?s=21

Bryan Wood (@bryanwx)

Many quick to jump on the "surge wasn't that bad" bandwagon. The risk shifted east - to mostly uninhabited, low-lying marsh areas that lack places to get high water mark observations that are so critical in determining heights. Looks like the USGS has one temporary gauge ther...

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 27-Aug-20 09:14 AM

Why was Jeff in the middle of the bay?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 09:14 AM

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298965278106292224?s=19

Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski)

Breaking news: I found a man in the middle of the bay in storm surge water south side of I-10 house clasped. He was trapped under walls.He is hyperthermia have another local taken him to mother house. Finding people in the water. #lawx

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Probably why @Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:17 AM

someone yesterday i told to watch out for hurricane force winds in alexandria. they said i was crazy. then alexandria got evac'ed overnight

a little turn goes a long way, and this wind field is still nasty

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:20 AM

lol are people seriously saying the "surge wasn't bad"?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:21 AM

it coudl hve been much worse. the storm landfalled about 30 miles east of where it was forecast

right front quad was over a nature reserve, instead of the calcasieu river

the river surged, but didn't back-up 20 feet high

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:22 AM

10 feet is still bad in that area.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:22 AM

yeah, areas on the coast likely are destroyed and many dead, but lake charles was largely spared

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:22 AM

I am really concerned for Cameron and Holly Beach

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:23 AM

they had some locals on tv saying that cameron has 150 people. mostly old farts that refused to leave

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:23 AM

It does give off that vibe.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:23 AM

water was up to windows on the cameras chasers had placed before the camera was destroyed. it was 9 feet high

well, it wasn't destroyed, it was underwater

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 09:24 AM

The 2 communities of Creole and Grand Chenier are likely destroyed by surge. They’re to the east of Cameron along LA-82

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:24 AM

yeah, they got michael'ed

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:25 AM

Also Lake Charles still got hit by massive winds.

Power is out for half of LA's population right now probably speaking.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:25 AM

surge was pretty low until about 20 minutes before the eye, that was waht the camera showed

then a huge surge at the last minute. just like michael

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 09:26 AM

Yeah lake Charles was pretty much the only place with weather obs that got hit by the east eyewall that’s close to the coast.

Probably why we didn’t get any even higher obs

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:27 AM

yeah its a no-mans-land between lake charles and lafayette. small towns /w no media / cameras

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:28 AM

I just really hope people really don't start saying shit like "Laura wasn't as bad as they said it would be, I am not leaving next time, etc." That sort of mentality is bad enough when people don't treat Cat 1-2s with respect, but if people start to say that with a Cat 4 (possibly a 5 in post) then I don't know what to think of people.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 09:29 AM

Brunt of the surge looked like it hit mostly marshes. I would of been curious if instruments were out there to measure it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:29 AM

Damage analysis should give us a better idea.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:31 AM

very few tidal gauges in that area. not sure we'll have much info

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 09:32 AM

Wonder if after this they'll potentially put a few out there just in case for the next one

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Aug-20 09:33 AM

"strongest storm to hit louisiana in 150 years"

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 09:34 AM

I saw a tweet that the USGS had a temporary gauge installed near Grand Chenier

https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/1298975806312656896?s=21

Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers)

Last radar image from LCH before data feed went down. Area along Highway 82 just off the coast between Grand Chenier and Pecan Island took the brunt of the eastern eyewall and probably the maximum surge. May take awhile to learn more. We’ll see if we get any NOAA aerial photo...

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 27-Aug-20 09:43 AM

Probably why @Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO)

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) no, that tweet is why I asked the question lol

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 27-Aug-20 09:45 AM

https://youtu.be/_VyisF7pmhY

Live Storms Media

08-27-2020 Lake Charles, LA Hurricane Laura Damage

NOT FOR BROADCAST Contact Brett Adair with Live Storms Media to license. [email protected] Various Clips of Damage including: Gas Station, Downtown Businesses, Trees and Power Lines, Surge

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 10:10 AM

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298985006052732929?s=19

Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski)

Chemical leak south side of I-10 west Lake area west of Lake Charles. 911 is aware they are overwhelmed. @NWSLakeCharles #lawx

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 27-Aug-20 10:17 AM

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 10:18 AM

Aaaand that's what I was afraid of.

We got any idea which specific facility? Had a look through the stuff made in that area and its a laundry list of "this leaking would be bad."

If that pic w/lake charles sign is where I think it is (facing west on I-10 near where it goes over LA-378), leak would be on the south side of I-10. Could be BioLap/KIKCorp. Brake fluid, pool treatments, antifreeze, bleach, household cleaners.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 27-Aug-20 10:36 AM

https://twitter.com/alastormtracker/status/1298992015405805570?s=21b DAMN

Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker)

LCH radar is going to be down a minute.... #Laura -

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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 10:51 AM

Reminds me of Maria. Pretty much the same

Kirk Giglio (E CT) 27-Aug-20 10:58 AM

Chemical leak is numbing to watch, gotta hope there’s no one sheltering in place still in the area and got away from the cloud

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 10:58 AM

Damn, was hoping the radar could somehow survive

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 10:59 AM

F for radar

1

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:00 AM

Yeesh

That'll buff out

Chris Maupin (Houston, TX) 27-Aug-20 11:10 AM

Well theres your problem

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:27 AM

Any updates about the chemical leak/fire? At work, can't pull up streams.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 11:30 AM

Still burning looks like

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:36 AM

Did they figure out which plant it was?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 11:37 AM

Saw a posting about it being a chlorine one

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 27-Aug-20 11:37 AM

A very bad chemical... (edited)

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:39 AM

Yeah, that was kinda my fear.

If that's truly Biolab/Kikcorp south of I-10 then chlorine is a very real possibility.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 11:45 AM

Oh goodness that radar ended up like Puerto Ricos after Maria

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 11:54 AM

https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1299003846631600128

Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker)

Better view of the radome up close at @NWSLakeCharles

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This is from KPLC (Lake Charles TV station). They have confirmed that the tower did fall into the studio, so thank goodness they evacuated to Alexandria and Baton Rouge.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 12:00 PM

Oh wow. Glad they left.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 12:01 PM

5 mile evac zone on the chemical fire.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:05 PM

Impressive

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 12:14 PM

Oof. Do we know what chemicals are the cause?

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:20 PM

Probably some kind of chemicals.

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 12:20 PM

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:21 PM

That radar dome is going to be in a rough state for a while though. Yeesh.

Looks like the Tootsie Roll Pop owl made a stop by that thing.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 12:22 PM

https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1298999494617559045

Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker)

Pieces of @NWSLakeCharles radome blown well down stream from the pedestal ESE to WNW. #Hurricane #Laura

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 12:23 PM

Best guess from me is chlorine, but it could be a horrible cocktail of chlorine and a ton of other stuff. That company makes a wide range of products - bleach, brake fluid, pool treatments, antifreeze. Unsure of exactly what at that specific location, but a 5 mile evac zone to me sounds like chlorine.

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 27-Aug-20 12:24 PM

Hopefully no farmland or agricultural land nearby cause that’s a RIP Topsoil

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 27-Aug-20 12:25 PM

If I remember correctly 88Ds it can withstand up to 130mph winds. You can correct me.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 12:30 PM

https://twitter.com/NOLAnews/status/1298976219434713088

NOLA.com (@NOLAnews)

BREAKING: Louisiana's first fatality from Hurricane Laura has been reported as a 14-year-old girl https://t.co/h8bVt4gum0

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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 12:38 PM

I'd honestly wager the Lake Charles area probably saw a couple of Michael-esque gusts

That eyewall convection was incredible and probably helped yank some of those nasty FLs to the sfc

Or one of those nutso mesovortices. That too

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:43 PM

Western side of the eyewall was getting some pretty interesting structure forming on radar images. Likely to do with those mesovorticies scooping into the eyewall itself.

Eastern side surprisingly wasn't showing that much higher winds (at 2-4Kft mind you) before the radar went out.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 12:45 PM

https://twitter.com/alastormtracker/status/1299002232701177858?s=21

Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker)

Destroyed hangars and aircraft at #LCH airport.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 12:45 PM

Any idea how KPOE radar site faired? It went down 2 minutes after klch

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 27-Aug-20 12:46 PM

Woah on that hangar damage on what appears to be 80 year old planes.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 12:46 PM

I believe that it’s fine, I think it just lost power, but I’m just guessing though

It likely lost the ability to transit the data out

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 12:56 PM

KPOE is handled out of the same building as KLCH I think

So when the dish crashed into the NWS building at KLCH it might have knocked out comms with KPOE. They went down at almost the exact same time. Within 2 minutes of each other from what I remember last night.

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 12:57 PM

Yeah.

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 01:00 PM

I'm surprised they can't/don't route the data to a different service building on the fly.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:01 PM

Laura now a 70 mph tropical storm

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 01:03 PM

I'm surprised the wind field is staying as confined as it is. I remember Irma had its wind field open up to pretty much encompass all of Florida and Georgia in TS force winds when it made landfall.

Then again, Irma was dummy thicc of a storm to begin with. Isaias was reasonably compact.

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 27-Aug-20 01:23 PM

https://twitter.com/DanielKATC/status/1299010543085391874?s=19

Daniel Phillips (@DanielKATC)

A category 4 storm has knocked a riverboat casino into a poorly rated bridge while a chemical fire burns in the background. That's the kind of morning it is in SW Louisiana right now.

Initiate boat watch?

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:28 PM

Almost feel like we need a 2020 emote now to react to that tweet properly...

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:30 PM

Don't forget about the picture

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:30 PM

That's a 2020 picture if I've ever seen one

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:30 PM

Haha yeah

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:34 PM

Pretty much

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 01:35 PM

Looks like that the river casino crashed into the I-10 bridge over the Calcasieu River (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:35 PM

Never ideal to have bridges being crashed into

Had that in Mobile during Katrina iirc

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:38 PM

Well this bridge already at a 6.0/100 rating.

Sorry 9.9/100

GanondorfMain7606 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM

Late to party but that's 2020 at its finest

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM

i'm honestly surprised to see the bridge still standing today

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM

Same man. Same.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:41 PM

We had a bridge over Lake Champlain when I was in NY that rated at like a 40/100, they demolished it a few weeks later and waited like a year to rebuild it

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 01:42 PM

Still better than this bridge haha. But it just cost to much to fix and repair this one.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 01:42 PM

Yeah. It was 2 months later, dug it up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Champlain_Bridge_(1929%E2%80%932009)

Lake_ChamplainBridge(1929%E2%80%932009)

2 hour detour without the ferry, that was not a fun time

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:46 PM

I mean the Brooklyn Bridge is a sufficiency zero

Lot of factors going into that rating

A large casino crashing into even a new bridge will probably cause issues lol

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:48 PM

https://twitter.com/BenTerryKPLC/status/1299036401439256582

Ben Terry (@BenTerryKPLC)

My house is a total loss in Hurricane Laura. These pictures were taken less than 24 hours apart as we were evacuating Lake Charles.

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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:50 PM

Did a tornado do that? Or eyewall winds?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:51 PM

Lake Charles would definitely be eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:52 PM

Any pictures out of Cameron or Holly Beach yet?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:52 PM

Is that a collapsed brick building immediately to the right of that house?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:52 PM

That damage is from the eyewall

Or a mesovortex eddy

2 homes down, only superficial damage

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) that’s wood framed with brick veneer

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM

Center and left home have no roofs and collapsed exterior walls

Kyle (Wayzata, MN) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM

Building next to it might have wooden walls.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM

I see

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 01:53 PM

Man, those mesovortices were no joke

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:55 PM

I can’t find anything out from the area right by the coast, I don’t think what we are going to get from Holly Beach/Cameron is gonna look pretty.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 01:58 PM

No chasers stay behind there for good reason. So will be awhile as I’m sure tons of tree debris on the roads to get there

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 01:58 PM

Also, let’s be honest, in many areas there might not even be roads.

Survivors will probably have to be airlifted out.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 01:59 PM

https://twitter.com/jeffcoxwgxa/status/1299039742290546690?s=21

Jeff Cox (@JeffCoxWGXA)

#Breaking: IOTA, La. (AP) -- Sheriff: Hurricane #Laura claims 2nd US victim, a 68-year-old man killed when a tree fell on his home in Acadia Parish. #lawx

Manafested (Wilmington, NC) 27-Aug-20 02:00 PM

Anyone know about the surge?

How far inland is it?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 02:01 PM

We don’t know.

Though what is surprising is how the surge behaved, there was almost none, then suddenly up 10+ feet.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:09 PM

I saw some reports it was 9feet. It wasn't as bad as they said but of course still bad.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:17 PM

highest number i saw on a tide gauge was 9.08 feet at Calcasieu Pass before it went offline.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 02:20 PM

The shift east seemed to somewhat avert a much bigger catastrophe for Holly Beach, Cameron, etc in the way of surge and wind

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 02:24 PM

Louisiana State Police said they were responding to a chlorine leak at the plant operated by Biolab, which manufactures pool chlorine and cleaning products, The Associated Press reported.

yep, confirms which plant I thought it was

2

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:25 PM

Cameron was still a bullseye though.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 02:27 PM

Do we even have reports out of there yet

Even if surge wasn't as high as expected no doubt had violent winds in the northern eyewall

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 02:29 PM

Well looking at a buoy major gap between 11:24pm- 2:36am

That has a reading at 109mph gusts though

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:16 PM

So how is our Hurricane doing?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:18 PM

Shes a TS now

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 03:22 PM

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1299046699462262785 Got a bad feeling about Cameron, Creole, and Grand Chenier

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

The effects of #Laura’s storm surge in SW Louisiana is visible on satellite. The top image is Tuesday and the bottom image is now. Note the temporary regression of the coastline. This water will gradually retreat into the Gulf, but this shows how big of an impact surge can ha...

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 27-Aug-20 03:22 PM

What about that plant that is on fire?

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 03:23 PM

Haven't heard anything lately, but also been sidetracked with work. Last I saw was evac was still in effect.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 03:26 PM

There is not a lot of new news. Its a waiting game. I think that it is very easy to understate the damage from Hurricanes initially. The most hard hit areas are the hardest to get to. I know with Camile it took a few days until the full extent of the devestation was known. So don't count ourselves lucky yet. (edited)

4

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 03:32 PM

Looks like he used Landsat 8 for that image. Need to wait until a high resolution satellite one flies over to get a better picture

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 04:12 PM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Ku6AvbOY2IU

WXChasing

8-27-2020 Hurricane Laura helicopter video of Cameron, La aftermath

Hurricane Laura made landfall at Cameron, La. First look at Cameron from a helicopter shows extensive damage with many homes completely missing or damaged.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 04:23 PM

Positive look to Cameron. Lot of structures appear to be intact

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 04:30 PM

I mean. A few look intact but not where somebody left them is the problem >.>

Sheriff office has quite a bit of water in it but that should buff out. Structure looks fine.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 27-Aug-20 04:33 PM

I guess I was mostly looking at the beginning of the footage. Those houses looked newer and build on metal stilts. They are probably anchored very well. There did appear to be a lot of empty plots in the later shots. Plus all the devestated oil stations.

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 04:36 PM

Any footage in there from Holly Beach. Couldn't quite tell. (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 04:49 PM

https://twitter.com/TaylorVerrico/status/1299056217009123329?s=19

Taylor Verrico (@TaylorVerrico)

KPLC’s tower fell right into our studio exactly where we would have been at going live covering Hurricane Laura. I am without words. SO THANKFUL we evacuated and no one was in that building.

8

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 04:53 PM

Crunchy. I heard the studio was damaged but yeah that's pretty bad. Glad they chose the smart move.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 27-Aug-20 05:00 PM

We probably won't here about a lot of damage for a few days like with Michael

HEAR

Damage from Hackberry

Cameron is completely underwater

Also lake Charles radar is declared totaled

So it will be down until they can fully replace it

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 05:43 PM

Eyewall basically a big mean EF2-3 tornado

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 27-Aug-20 05:43 PM

How long does it take to replace a radar? It's in an area that typically has quite a few tornados in late winter into early spring. Hopefully they replace it in 6 months or less

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 27-Aug-20 05:46 PM

I'd wager a good bit faster than Puerto Rico was able to

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 27-Aug-20 06:04 PM

https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1299089961342230529

Ed Piotrowski (@EdPiotrowski)

Video of how devasting #Lauara's storm surge & wind were in Holly Beach, LA (west of Cameron). Some homes were obliterated and wiped clean from their foundations. Video Courtesy Brandon Clement with Live Storms Media. #Laura https://t.co/3TKfZznSq1

Likes

116

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 06:13 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPkIYzugBzE

KATC

TV tower falls onto Lake Charles buildings during storm

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 27-Aug-20 06:32 PM

Some good news regarding KPOE. https://twitter.com/NEXRADROC/status/1299111918565761024

NEXRAD ROC (@NEXRADROC)

@eniels13 @rqhart @OUwx13 Initial inspection of KPOE #wsr88d indicates no damage. The communications outage is being worked.

4

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 27-Aug-20 06:47 PM

Well I found some Satellite images of Cameron taken today.

Not exactly in Cameron but right next to it but 8.5% cloud cover and 12.3% cloud cover

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 07:26 PM

I know it's early but any word on how long KLCH will be down for? I'm no radar expert but on a few views the damage to the equipment itself seems fixable within a reasonable timeframe considering first and foremost the tower appear damaged other than the dome at the top. (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 27-Aug-20 07:34 PM

Well considering the radar dish itself is pretty much totaled I think it'll be quite some time before it's back

8

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 27-Aug-20 07:44 PM

Do they have WSR-88D parts readily available other than the dome (edited)

Dave Barry (St. Louis, MO) 27-Aug-20 07:49 PM

I'd hope so

But we're talking "Government Agency 2020" and that's a big friggen maybe all over.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 08:22 PM

Puerto Rico took 9 months to replace there’s after Maria. Expect it to be quicker than that with less transportation and less of a jungle to get to it.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-Aug-20 09:05 PM

Anybody know the status on that big chemical fire? We had to take 210 west to get out of lake Charles cuz of it and last I heard there was a shelter in place because the smoke was because of chlorine

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 27-Aug-20 09:34 PM

https://www.kplctv.com/2020/08/27/fire-chemical-plant-westlake/

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 27-Aug-20 09:39 PM

Thanks. Was wondering and I have been driving all day so I didn’t get a chance to follow up and make sure everything was ok

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 09:57 PM

I remember the humorous statement by NWS San Juan regarding their radar loss. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-Aug-20 10:39 PM

Tropical depression Laura

Last advisory by the nhc. WPC taking over

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:23 PM

for now

i really hate to have to put it like that, but I could see the NHC taking over again once it gets to the atlantic

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 11:24 PM

Once it gets to the Atlantic it is going OTS anyways.

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:24 PM

true

and the NHC will be busy with whatever's brewing down in the tropics by then anyway

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:25 PM

It'll be such a 2020 thing for Laura to attain subtropical characteristics and last until British Columbia

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:25 PM

wrong side of Canada

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM

LOL

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM

And then become a major windstorm in Northern Europe

3

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM

BC is west coast. Nova Scotia/Newfoundland is east coast.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:26 PM

This just tells you I'm not good with Canadian provinces/states

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:27 PM

I spent long enough near the border I had to learn them

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 27-Aug-20 11:27 PM

I think I meant to say Nova Scotia

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 27-Aug-20 11:27 PM

beyond just "ontario is where I can drink at 19"

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 27-Aug-20 11:37 PM

@Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) From that video I estimate Holly Beach got Cat 3 winds (roof material peeling off, not much "roof clean off") and most destroyed homes were the result of surge. This was the "clean" side, the "dirty" side of the landfall (Cameron and townships east of) likely looks even uglier. (edited)

@Garrett (Hillsdale MI) Looks like mainly surge damage, that green roof looks like it was "slid off" rather than blown off by winds.

Christine Veerkamp (GER) 28-Aug-20 12:20 AM

bring they employes in useless danger ... TWC https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1298957408061001728

The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel)

WATCH: Jaw-dropping footage from our live crews last night as #Laura made landfall. https://t.co/psxgyM18tl

Retweets

2144

Likes

5221

i was thinking the whole time watching this ... i wonder when stuff will go fly

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 28-Aug-20 12:27 AM

https://www.kplctv.com/2020/08/27/lake-charles-tv-station-tower-toppled-laura/

Lake Charles, La. TV station tower toppled in Hurricane Laura

A broadcast tower over 300 feet tall was toppled by the winds from Hurricane Laura as the Category 4 storm made landfall in southwest Louisiana during the early morning hours of Thursday, Aug. 26.

Includes some photos from where they would've been covering this had they not left.

Christine Veerkamp (GER) 28-Aug-20 12:39 AM

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1299196156057063424

Dakota Smith (@weatherdak)

Harvey, Michael, Laura. The Gulf of Mexico has seen three jaw-dropping eyes over the last four years. All peaking at landfall. https://t.co/OnNaGmO55z

thats so storm candy

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 12:59 AM

Laura before nightfall, if only it was a day landfall

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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:36 AM

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1299325180762873857?s=20

Eric Blake 🌀 (@EricBlake12)

About a 14 foot rise on this gauge #Laura https://t.co/ITFpU9I93O

~14 foot surge found here

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 28-Aug-20 10:43 AM

That's a lot closer to the forecast peak surge, nearly perfect forecast

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 28-Aug-20 01:58 PM

The NHC did about as good a job as you could with this, all things considered. Laura was very tough to forecast. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 02:27 PM

The models did them no favors

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 28-Aug-20 03:10 PM

Gotta give the NHC props for only being 1km off tho. She was messy but they did well

Max (Saint John, NB) 28-Aug-20 03:27 PM

https://twitter.com/nwslakecharles/status/1299427338241757184?s=21 semi related, people are misusing generators and dying from carbon monoxide poisoning in the area

NWS Lake Charles (@NWSLakeCharles)

IMPORTANT SAFETY TIP Unfortunately, there have already been 9 reported fatalities related to Carbon Monoxide poisoning, most likely related to people using generators indoors. If you choose to use a generator, make sure to keep it outside!

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 28-Aug-20 05:04 PM

Nine?? Yeesh

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 28-Aug-20 05:18 PM

I just assumed it was better known not to use indoors...

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 06:25 PM

I mean that happens every hurricane season in FL. People aren’t too bright

Max (Saint John, NB) 28-Aug-20 06:37 PM

https://twitter.com/web61/status/1299453628567166979?s=20 Wtf is this person smoking

Mark Weber (@web61)

@StephanieAbrams The CBS local station in Lake Charles was totally destroyed. Damage shows it was hit by at least an EF3 Tornado. Steel beams twisted. and across the street homes left untouched!

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 06:57 PM

I want some

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 28-Aug-20 07:16 PM

McNeese State University Damage pics https://mcneeseathletics.smugmug.com/Hurricane-Laura-Damage/Hurricane-Laura-damage/

Hurricane Laura damage - McNeese Athletics

Hurricane Laura damage

Craziest pic out of it

beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 07:21 PM

None of the photo's from lake charles are crazy or surprising except the NWS radar being destroyed. Metal bends after it's forced into a certain direction long enough.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 28-Aug-20 07:22 PM

True. Nothing has caught my eye

beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 07:25 PM

The broadcast tower i'm a little surprised at but not really. You sit that close to salt water shits going to rot away and weaken. Plus that big of an object becomes a kite with that much surface area.

Max (Saint John, NB) 28-Aug-20 07:27 PM

Prob one of the scariest advisories ive seen in a long time

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 28-Aug-20 08:27 PM

Holy shit look at her go lmao (edited)

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 28-Aug-20 08:41 PM

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1299499092725305344

Dakota Smith (@weatherdak)

New aerial imagery reveals flooding from Hurricane Laura. This just east of Cameron, LA. https://t.co/AzXaEC4q1w

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 28-Aug-20 08:42 PM

It's very lucky that the worst of the surge hit only fairly unpopulated areas

beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 08:53 PM

There was very little surge actually.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 09:14 PM

14 foot surge was the highest observed that has been found

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 09:46 PM

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/laura/index.html#

Hurricane LAURA Imagery

The surge was ~10ft near Cameron and ~14ft near Grand Chenier

We'll get high water mark surveys soon to determine values inbetween and around there

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:09 PM

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1299499092725305344?s=20

Dakota Smith (@weatherdak)

New aerial imagery reveals flooding from Hurricane Laura. This just east of Cameron, LA. https://t.co/AzXaEC4q1w

Retweets

186

Likes

333

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1299505755851124738?s=20

Dakota Smith (@weatherdak)

Another from Grand Chenier where some homes look completely destroyed. https://t.co/wJ0zq3C3zq

Houses are just... gone.

In those two tweets

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 28-Aug-20 10:11 PM

https://twitter.com/ulmwxr/status/1299153532734431234?s=19 17.1 ft surge in Grand Chenier as well, but it may have been 2 feet less than that based on where the x axis starts?

Christopher Bannan (@ulmwxr)

Thanks to my colleague Phil for pointing this out to me & @backinblack_wx for looking at surge info all day, we did come across the Corp gage on the Mermentau River at Grand Chenieer. #Laura @NHC_Atlantic @NWSLakeCharles https://t.co/T9vOK5E0ag

Likes

189

Also, that surge was slowly rising and then BOOM! Here's about 12 extra feet of water

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:13 PM

That’s the 14 foot surge I was talking about above.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 28-Aug-20 10:13 PM

Why does it look like 17.1 or 15.1 surge?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 28-Aug-20 10:14 PM

17.1 is just the height of the water. If the normal height is let’s say 2.1 feet, then surge is classified as water that is above normal levels

Looks to me the “normal” level at the time of the increase is around ~ 3 feet although the normal level fluctuates with tides. (edited)

So 17 - 3 = 14

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 28-Aug-20 10:18 PM

Got it, thanks for the explanation!

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 28-Aug-20 10:21 PM

I believe Eric Blake himself cited that as evidence for 14 foot surge so it's well confirmed

beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 11:03 PM

@William Spencer (Richmond, VA) how did you know i was down there?

William Spencer (Richmond, VA) 28-Aug-20 11:04 PM

SN dot. Randomly clicked on it in Port Arthur

beard (fort worth) 28-Aug-20 11:09 PM

Ah. Somebody said one of my videos was seen somewhere and i was checking lol i only turned it on so a local met could see where i was.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 29-Aug-20 03:48 AM

Laura managing to regenerate into a weak TS over water would be peak 2020

Max (Saint John, NB) 29-Aug-20 11:35 AM

Dorian did some fun things. Strengthened to category 2 over ice cold waters (just off nova scotia coast) so it probably could happen

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 29-Aug-20 11:38 AM

Wasn't that due to mostly baroclinic intensification?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Aug-20 11:46 AM

It will be with a baroclinic system when it exits the coast, so I can see a subtropical system possibly forming from it.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 29-Aug-20 01:51 PM

US death toll stands at 11

Not counting the generator related deaths

We're very lucky it made landfall in a sparsely populated area

Just 20 miles west it would've been where Rita made landfall and that had 10 times the amount of US deaths

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Aug-20 02:35 PM

https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/1299777088824770560?s=20

AccuWeather (@accuweather)

Hurricane Laura's death toll is now at 16 in the U.S., plus over 30 in the Caribbean. https://t.co/6S4JUHpt21

Looks to be 16 now in the US. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 29-Aug-20 05:08 PM

This’ll be retired for sure, for all the massive wind and surge related damage in the US as well as all the deaths from flooding in Hispaniola.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 30-Aug-20 01:06 PM

Total fatalities at 53 now (US and Caribbean). Still numerous missing people reported along the Louisiana coast (edited)

Grand Chenier also looks like a complete loss. Satellite pictures from their look apocalyptic

I don’t see how anyone survived if they stayed there

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 30-Aug-20 01:27 PM

Even though Laura made landfall specifically in a “sparsely populated area” the lack of any weakening until she passed Lake Charles really highlights a solid sized city getting utterly trashed. I was very surprised at the amount of damage we saw driving around the city before we left. I hope people don’t just kind of dismiss this as not a big deal cuz it didn’t hit Houston.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 30-Aug-20 02:36 PM

Unfortunately, there already has been a lot of that.

"It didn't hit NOLA or Houston so it's not a big deal"

"The surge wasn't THAT bad"

"It wasn't as bad as they said it would be"

"blahblahblah"

I say if you were actually listening to the mets and NHC and not sensationalist media and Twitter doomer tabloids then yes, it was every bit as impactful as they said it would be. (edited)

When someone goes "It landfalled in a sparsely populated area" I go "what part of 'impacts will extend far from the center' do you not understand?"

When I saw where Grand Chenier was and where the dirty side of the eyewall was, I knew deep down it would not look good in the slightest.

Sorry if I am rambling, I can't stand it when someone goes "lol it wasn't that bad" just because the dirty side of the eyewall didn't come over their house.

It gets even better when they follow it up with "I won't be evacuating or taking action next time".

And it’s like okay, see you on the next Darwin Awards.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 30-Aug-20 03:00 PM

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1300144827129102337

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

We had this weather station set up on the bridge over Choupique Bayou along 27 N of Hackberry. It was not there yesterday evening when we went back to get it. No, it did not fall in or get knocked off. Someone took it. This is unfortunate & does nothing but hurt the science....

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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 30-Aug-20 03:00 PM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 30-Aug-20 03:03 PM

https://tenor.com/view/angry-fist-arthur-gif-5794225

arthur fist

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 30-Aug-20 03:46 PM

Being on the West side of Galveston bay, we had everything packed for a last minute storm turn. I can't blame the people who evacuated, but for those who didn't, especially the ones in the direct cone, they got lucky this time. For instance, if Galveston got hit by a 15 ft wave, say goodbye to everything on the island.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 12:21 PM

So apparently the shirtless Florida guy who goes to hurricanes with the big American flag and blasts Slayer was back for Laura

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 12:30 PM

Wait, thats an actual person, not just some dude who did it once? wow

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 31-Aug-20 12:31 PM

He is dedicated

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 31-Aug-20 12:32 PM

https://media.tenor.com/images/e0ccff9a7afffafa71886e3a9995e7c8/tenor.gif

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 12:44 PM

o7

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 12:44 PM

Apparently lol

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 12:46 PM

Its probably a very good workout, holding that flag. I admire his spirit. No shame, not there for science, or to help with warnings. Just there to be out in and appreciate the power of nature.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 12:46 PM

If nobody actually saw him during the storm, did he really go down there?

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 31-Aug-20 12:52 PM

If the tree fell in a forest and nobody was around, did it make noise?

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 12:54 PM

If the tree fell in a forest and nobody was around, did it make noise?

@Davis (Charlotte, NC) My point exactly

Davis (Charlotte, NC) 31-Aug-20 12:57 PM

depends on how much we trust him/whoever said he went, if he did go thats cool, sad we didnt get any video, if he didnt so what? plenty more storms coming ~~unfortunatley~~

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 12:58 PM

https://loudwire.com/floridas-slayer-hurricane-guy-back-for-third-time-hurricane-laura/ Reed Timmer level hurricane enthusiasm apparently

Florida's 'Slayer Hurricane Guy' Is Back for a Third Time

He traveled to Louisiana to confront Hurricane Laura.

4

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Aug-20 01:41 PM

SLAYERR

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 31-Aug-20 01:45 PM

i gotta appreciate his dedication

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 31-Aug-20 02:26 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1300491086377426944

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

The Cameron, LA cam box has been recovered! #cam8 I’ll have the full story soon. Thanks to all who shared the info about it.

I’ll have the data from the pressure sensor ASAP. Stay tuned, it could be historic!

Likes

335

6

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 02:27 PM

Long live #Cam8

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 31-Aug-20 03:03 PM

https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/1300503605527576577?s=19

Mike Theiss (@MikeTheiss)

#WindyPalmsProject results: Wind sensor deployment height 15 feet near Holly Beach, Louisiana. MAX wind gust of 154 mph at 12:33. Lowest barometric pressure of 945mb at 12:36am. Watch the intense deployment during #HurricaneLaura on the new @NatGeoChannel TV series #Category6...

6

4

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 31-Aug-20 03:11 PM

Considering it was in the western eyewall, a gust of 154 is pretty impressive

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 04:11 PM

west obs + 2*storm motion = east obs estimate. so if Laura was going N at 10mph, east gust estimate would be ~174mph (edited)

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 31-Aug-20 04:11 PM

found out in the Gulf current

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 04:13 PM

174mph gust-15% = estimated 1 minute winds, or 147mph, which is close to what hunters found

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 31-Aug-20 04:28 PM

So confident this holds as a cat4 in off season review?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 04:31 PM

Landfall movement was N @ 15 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al13/al132020.public_a.029.shtml?

Going off Royce's estimate, a derived gust maximum of 154 mph indicates a sustained wind of ~131 mph

IF true, this suggests wind gusts approaching 184 mph in the eastern eyewall (edited)

Then the sustained wind in that quadrant would be ~156 mph, which is slightly above the NHC advisory at landfall, which was 150mph/938mb (edited)

Feel free to correct on this

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 04:44 PM

Considering cat 5 now starts at 157 on the SSHS, watch them go with that and finalize it at 156

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 04:46 PM

Could go with 135kts with post-analysis

Or surprise us all with 140kts

beard (fort worth) 31-Aug-20 06:32 PM

https://tenor.com/view/ffs-baby-really-oh-god-just-stop-gif-12739180

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:38 PM

@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) If I recall correctly, the last 30 minutes towards landfall was filled with suspect SFMRs and missing data (edited)

The max FL wind 30-70 minutes before landfall was 148-150kts

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 31-Aug-20 06:39 PM

Don't forget all the dropsondes that failed before surface level.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:40 PM

Yeah, there was one dropsonde that fail just before reaching 950mb

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 31-Aug-20 06:41 PM

Max FL wind was 148 knots. Probably would like to see that closer to 155 knots if they’ll upgrade this to a cat. 5 post-season

I just don’t see the case for this being upgraded to 160mph. I can totally see 155 but not 160

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:43 PM

Fair case for 135kts, but I agree, CAT5 is a little far-fetched, considering FL-SFMR data

Even so, this is still the strongest hurricane to strike that area since 1856

5

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 31-Aug-20 06:46 PM

Upgrade or no upgrade, this storm caused loss of life and changed some coastal towns forever

10

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:48 PM

Especially Creole and Grand Chenier

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 06:48 PM

Looks like the max rated speed for the radar was 124 mph. https://www.facebook.com/731982933501285/posts/3798263883539826/?extid=GCmiAZiUyqZKzmUB&d=n

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:48 PM

I kinda wonder how many come back, many areas wiped out 3 times in 15 years (Rita and Ike)

Can imagine insurance rates won't be fun

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 31-Aug-20 06:49 PM

@Lee S (Wichita, KS) Seems like the radar did fail just before entering the inner eyewall

Gusts continued to accelerate after it's failure

Max gust found next to or within city limits was ~144 mph (excluding the 154 mph measurement at Holly Beach)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 08:48 PM

insurance rates are heavily subsidized by taxpayer money, the rich people move back only to be destroyed again, and collect again. and the poor are gone forever. its gentrification in fast-forward

there was a house in S alabama that had been damage by storms somethign on the order of 15 times in the last 20 years, and collected every time. was a near million dollar home, and the federal govenrment had paid out somethign like 7x its total value over the course of the last 20 years

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 31-Aug-20 09:00 PM

!!!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 31-Aug-20 09:05 PM

flood / hurricane insurance actually encourages people to have their homes destroyed and to build in high risk areas.

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 31-Aug-20 09:30 PM

The worst part is if you tell people they can’t rebuild on a specific area they throw a hissy fit about the government taking away their property.

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 10:05 PM

https://loudwire.com/floridas-slayer-hurricane-guy-back-for-third-time-hurricane-laura/ Reed Timmer level hurricane enthusiasm apparently

@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) This guy is MY MAN!!! Bro, this guy knows was up!!!

Florida's 'Slayer Hurricane Guy' Is Back for a Third Time

He traveled to Louisiana to confront Hurricane Laura.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 31-Aug-20 10:11 PM

Lol yeah he's awesome, very glad to see he's still at it

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 31-Aug-20 10:11 PM

@Jonathan DeGraw (IN) What do you say to doing this next time...

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 12:49 AM

My philosophy on people building on the coast and/or at/below sea level is there's a reason the Native Americans (including my Cherokee ancestors) stayed inland and mainly went to the coast to hunt/fish/etc. They just might have known a thing or two

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:07 AM

They also didn’t have the building techniques to withstand even a strong squall line.

Nor did they have the economic drive to build coastal (need to establish ports, persistent industry, etc).

Point is, they were from a different time.

My philosophy is that if you live somewhere you accept the risks of living there. You live on the coasts you accept the risks of hurricanes or coastal storms, live in the Midwest you accept the risks of derechos, live in the plains you accept the risks of tornadoes and hail.

Live in California you accept the risk of wildfires.

So don’t act surprised if something happens. In other words read the fine print before signing.

Though that said insurance companies are notoriously scummy.

They are official scams for the most part.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:19 AM

My point was building at or below sea level isn't exactly the smartest thing. Besides, we're well past the time where ports absolutely have to be on the coast. My hometown has a port 1,000 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi. And it's not even the most inland (or oldest inland) port in the US.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:21 AM

Yes. I know, I live close to the Great Lakes. But you’ll have a hard time squeezing a massive oil tanker or container ship up the Mississippi or St. Lawrence, the Mississippi has a lot of low bridges and the St. Lawrence can only support up to medium sized ocean going vessels.

Doing it would require the locks and canals to be completely redone.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:23 AM

Much of that switchover is on the Mississippi is done in Baton Rouge anymore. Again, not near the actual coast, but ocean-going vessels can easily make it there. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:25 AM

Ocean vessels up to 700 ft can get into the Great Lakes but with the current lock system not anything larger than that. If we want to get in modern oil tankers or larger container ships the locks and canals would have to be expanded, a project that has been proposed but keeps getting thrown out. (edited)

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:27 AM

I forget how far they go up the Atchafalaya River but there are no port facilities near the coast on that river. The I-10 bridge across there is as tall as the one in Baton Rouge.

I believe our submarine bases for the Atlantic fleet are actually a decent distance inland as well. Although from a fleet standpoint, they do have flexibility in moving ships around as needed to avoid storms

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:29 AM

Though that said there has been a push for <740 foot container ship access on the St. Lawrence/Great Lakes system recently, with Chicago, Duluth, Milwaukee, and Cleveland being proposed container ports. Maybe it will go somewhere. (edited)

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 01-Sep-20 01:31 AM

Chicago and Duluth make a ton of sense in particular. Both already have a huge intermodal presence and Chicago in particular would be best positioned to ramp up more intermodal capacity.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 01-Sep-20 01:34 AM

Though the biggest obstacle for expanded inland waterways is that you’re gonna have to get it past the people who complain about Asian Carp (they are still salty over the St. Lawrence seaway being built). (edited)

And also convince firms that it’s worth it.

And get money to build infrastructure.

Lots of things really.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 01-Sep-20 03:11 AM

https://twitter.com/BillWadell/status/1300566011608006657?s=19

Bill Wadell (@BillWadell)

Louisiana officials now say 15 people have died in connection to #Hurricane #Laura. The latest case reported was a 49-year-old man who died from blunt force trauma while trying to cut down a tree in Rapides Parish. The ages of the victims range from 14-84. #lawx

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 01-Sep-20 11:27 AM

My point was building at or below sea level isn't exactly the smartest thing. Besides, we're well past the time where ports absolutely have to be on the coast. My hometown has a port 1,000 miles upstream from the mouth of the Mississippi. And it's not even the most inland (or oldest inland) port in the US.

@Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) That would be Duluth MN, 3 hours from where I grew up.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 01-Sep-20 11:39 AM

I like Duluth. Not in the winter time. And we are going OT.

Good bye Laura room.

5

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 01-Sep-20 05:42 PM

https://twitter.com/StephenMStrader/status/1300869513186078721?s=19

Stephen M. Strader (@StephenMStrader)

Another before and after of #HurricaneLaura #HurricaneLaura2020 using Landsat-8 false color imagery. Better view of the flooding.

Landsat 8 Images of the flooding.