Stormtrack - ptc-teddy-2020

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:46 AM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:47 AM

Bermuda:

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:48 AM

yep

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 16-Sep-20 01:06 AM

Such a tiny island seemingly in the middle of the ocean and about to get hit by 2 hurricanes in 2 weeks. Oof

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 02:11 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_nhc/status/1306113425148227586?s=19

IEMBot NHC (@iembot_nhc)

NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) at Sep 16, 10:10 AM AST ...TEDDY BECOMES A HURRICANE... https://t.co/kL9rY8fp89

85 MPH

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 02:30 AM

That escalated quickly.

Teddy about to become an ACE machine?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 02:37 AM

Three simultaneous canes now

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:48 AM

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1306122157861216256?s=21

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Hurricane #Teddy Advisory 15: Teddy Rapidly Intensifies Into a 90-Mph Hurricane. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Teddy now 90 mph. And has RI’d

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 02:49 AM

ACEmaker on the way

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 03:39 AM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306132964414287872

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, & New England have to keep a weary eye on hurricane #Teddy. Not exactly an ideal trend over the last 3 Euro ensemble suites. https://t.co/shiWR4mE2r

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 04:38 AM

Teddy now a category 2

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 16-Sep-20 05:10 AM

Close to 967mb

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:43 AM

Teddy forcast to become Cat 4 by ~36 hours. Well, there goes our slightly above average ACE total. Time to make a push for that hyperactive season! Go Teddy Go! Just stay over water while youa re doing it!

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 16-Sep-20 10:44 AM

Models showing him curving out to sea.. after hitting Bermuda of course

4

It'd be the perfect fish storm if it wasn't on a collision course with Bermuda

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 16-Sep-20 01:57 PM

NOAA Dropsonde mission around Teddy right now

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:54 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306302654478462976

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

This 3 run trend of the ECMWF for #Teddy at day 5 is bad news bears. https://t.co/RTH6D82X6W

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 16-Sep-20 03:16 PM

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306132964414287872

Eric Webb (@webberweather)

Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, & New England have to keep a weary eye on hurricane #Teddy. Not exactly an ideal trend over the last 3 Euro ensemble suites. https://t.co/shiWR4mE2r

ECMWF ensembles aren't looking great either

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 03:54 PM

Teddy looking big but not so cuddly

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 04:04 PM

Teddy is the name of my storm chasing Civic, lol. His theme song is Little Richards: "Ready Teddy"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 04:22 PM

"the euro nailed sandy" lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 05:20 PM

EURO pulling a 'sandy teddy'

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 05:21 PM

Has it merging with a trough too, likely going for a Sandy/Perfect Storm hybrid cyclone as well.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 16-Sep-20 05:22 PM

Oh my... That one track with a TS strength low passing over me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 05:24 PM

TEDDY SANDY FUJIWHARA BOSTON CREAM PIE

thats euro ens. 1. reforms sally, does a fujiwhara, then teddy pulls a sandy and slams into boston FROM THE NORTHEAST

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 05:25 PM

This run in a nutshell: Teddy: "Sally could you give me a lift?"

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 05:25 PM

prepare for some really really weird models out of this one

you thought sally was bad to forecast? prepare for trying to forecast a potential sandy

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 16-Sep-20 05:26 PM

https://media.tenor.com/images/305bbe983d08ef78ddf2b885e08a15b4/tenor.gif

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 05:26 PM

It could hit anywhere between NC and Newfoundland, or go OTS.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 05:28 PM

jesus, like 75% of the runs reform sally and do a fujiwhara /w teddy

many of them just stall teddy afterward, but lots of these runs have new england / NS landfall

who's ready for a potential cat 4 landfall in maine? meanwhile almost every run ALSO has a cat 1 landfall in S texas

yeah, these runs are nightmare mode. let's hope the next run isn't so scary

GOING DUE WEST? WHAT? NAH

this is only 6-7 days out folks. we start getting accurate runs around day 5. if this keeps up for another 4 runs, no bueno (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 05:36 PM

Question in the short term is, does he makes category three with the impinging shear and dry air intrusions

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 05:38 PM

i think there is only one solution here. we must kill the teddy bear

https://tenor.com/view/wow-ted-teddy-bear-seth-mac-farlane-ted-the-bear-gif-5499654

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 16-Sep-20 05:56 PM

2020, sounds like the year where New England would get a surprise major hurricane

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 16-Sep-20 06:03 PM

2020, where we repeat the 1938 New England Hurricane

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 06:15 PM

What makes hurricanes in NE dangerous is that they tend to be undergoing extratropical transition as they head through there and their windfield gets huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge, Sandy and '38 are only a couple examples.

Irene was feeling the effects of transition as it was going through there, as was Isais. Though Sandy and 38 were particularly devastating because the path they took brought all the surge ashore as they were transitioning. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 06:38 PM

keep in mind, this could be a sub 940 storm, POST merge /w a sally fujiwhara. the wind field will be perfect-storm sized if this occurs

there are 50 euro ensembesl and about 10 had what i'd call 'worst case scenario in a sci-fi movie' occuring

cross those fingers, people. 2020 does not forgive

1

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 07:25 PM

goodness

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 16-Sep-20 07:37 PM

Starting to watch this closer, considering how large the wind fields usually are and how close some of the ensemble members put the systems to me

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 07:38 PM

I wouldn't imagine the environment farther north being as supportive for a stronger storm, well hopefully not like Isaias

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 07:39 PM

Tropical Drama.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:04 PM

This is the deepest convection I've seen from a MDR TC (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 16-Sep-20 09:23 PM

Jeez, that's straight outta WPAC

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 09:24 PM

Best track actually decreases wind speeds to 80 knots

Definitely looked better last night, but this new convection might boost it.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 09:26 PM

Seems like the anvils from that deep convection are just overtopping the eye

Was less convectively active last night

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 09:27 PM

Wonder if the eye has closed back up.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 09:27 PM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:43 PM

That's some cold tops there

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 09:56 PM

Doesn’t look like it’s completely recovered yet. But impressive banding to the north.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 03:09 AM

ADT going nuts, obviously

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 17-Sep-20 03:16 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 974.1mb/ 77.0kt

ADT seems to be lagging.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 17-Sep-20 04:02 AM

NHC is going with ADT

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 17-Sep-20 06:54 AM

Latest ADT is pure insanity.

Max (Saint John, NB) 17-Sep-20 08:31 AM

Okay getting worried

Euro, gfs, and gem all have teddy making landfall near meor just barely missing me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 08:51 AM

Landfall between NB and maine seems most likely at this point. Sti a long way off but watch out

Euro moved a little further east this run toward NS. Good for us bad for them

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 09:04 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.6 / 952.3mb/104.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.6 6.2 6.5

Max (Saint John, NB) 17-Sep-20 09:08 AM

Still very bad for me

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 17-Sep-20 09:09 AM

Eye is 33% covered. Lowest I could find on it. (edited)

Lets do this all 3 of them Vis/InFr/WV

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 09:30 AM

there is a massive trough /w dry air to the west. that's what's goofing teddy up right now (edited)

if not for that he'd already be high end 4/low 5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 11:17 AM

95kts, 965. ouch

nope 105 kts , 957

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 17-Sep-20 11:18 AM

https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1306612381443907585?s=21

Jack Sillin (@JackSillin)

Hurricane Hunters now entering powerful Major Hurricane #Teddy with its well-defined eye and intense eyewall thunderstorms

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 17-Sep-20 11:23 AM

Wow, so he's already Cat 3?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 11:42 AM

and growing

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 17-Sep-20 11:57 AM

Recon finding 120 kt flight level winds in NE eyewall of Teddy

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 12:13 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/755894044886040706/756182435284254841/recon_NOAA2-WC20A-TEDDY_dropsonde3_20200917-1531.png

952 mb eye dropsonde

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-Sep-20 12:14 PM

Where do yall go to get zoomed in GOES images of Teddy? COD does not extend that far out into the atlantic

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 17-Sep-20 12:19 PM

I gets mines from GRearth which is GOES17 i think? lol (edited)

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 17-Sep-20 12:20 PM

Joey you can see Teddy on COD through the meso sectors

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-Sep-20 12:21 PM

Beast of a storm

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-Sep-20 12:28 PM

Looks like he has some dry air entrainment though.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 17-Sep-20 12:32 PM

doesn't look like a problem

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 12:32 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.4 / 934.4mb/124.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.4 6.2 6.2

will take time for the winds to catch up with ADT. but this is likely a cat 4 by tonight

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 12:35 PM

Only the second major of season but quite a vigorous one

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 12:48 PM

Teddy has a 40 n mile (46 miles) wide eye. (edited)

4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 17-Sep-20 12:49 PM

WPAC anyone?

On IR it looks like he is about to fully close off the eye from the dry air. I could be interpreting that wrong, but it looks like its about to be major go time!

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 12:52 PM

Eye is already closed per recon

117 knots Flight level and 97 knot SFMR this pass

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 02:32 PM

110 knots SFMR with Teddy

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 17-Sep-20 02:33 PM

High-end Cat 3.

3

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 02:43 PM

Extrapolated pressure still dropping

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 02:44 PM

946.9 mb extrap at 29 knots (edited)

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 17-Sep-20 04:45 PM

forecasts expect it to reach an high end cat 4

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 17-Sep-20 04:46 PM

Really our best hope is for an EWRC before it hits Bermuda

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 04:48 PM

there is A LOT of shear just NW of it with that trough

that will be the only thing stopping hit form hitting cat 5, imo. the water is fine

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 04:48 PM

Also have Paulette’s wake ahead of it

27C-28C waters hard to support cat. 5s (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 04:49 PM

she's got 50-75 OHC for another 36-48 hours. plenty to sustain cat 4 with slow growth, low end cat 5.

or should i say, he?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 04:50 PM

Yeah, more referring to when it nears Bermuda

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 04:50 PM

yeah there will be 24-48 hours of weakening before berm hopefully

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 04:54 PM

Just got a 114 knot SFMR in recon with 130 knot Flight level

7

In the NW quad.

Advisory in. Teddy now 140 mph category 4.

Forecast to be 150 mph

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 17-Sep-20 04:58 PM

Wow

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 05:01 PM

based on the satellite presentation, the cloud temps, this looks like it should be a top end cat 4 / low cat 5 within 24 hours

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 17-Sep-20 05:02 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1306698957477740544

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Hurricane #Teddy Advisory 22: Teddy Strengthens to a Powerful Category Four Hurricane. Large Swells Forecast to Spread Across Much of the Western Atlantic Into This Weekend Increasing Rip Current Threat. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 05:02 PM

black ring of death is giving way to white ring of death, with lots of pink

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 17-Sep-20 05:02 PM

We could wake up to a Cat 5 tomorrow if ol' Ted keeps this up

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 05:03 PM

Teddy tryna make up for some of the weaker storms this year clearly

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 17-Sep-20 05:37 PM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 05:44 PM

Not ideal for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 17-Sep-20 05:52 PM

140mph, cat 4 (edited)

We could technically wake up to see a 160mph Teddy tmr if it doesn't undergo eyewall replacement

Max (Saint John, NB) 17-Sep-20 06:07 PM

Omg wtf

I'm nervous

In new brunswick can see nova scotia from my window

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 17-Sep-20 06:10 PM

That’s better than seeing Russia from your back yard.

Max (Saint John, NB) 17-Sep-20 06:11 PM

Good point

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 17-Sep-20 06:32 PM

prepare

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 17-Sep-20 07:23 PM

Everyone gets a cane!

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 07:47 PM

I told y'all two more landfall next week. But will it be Canadian instead of just american

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 09:49 PM

https://twitter.com/GBlack22wx/status/1306771465820405761

Garrett Black (@GBlack22wx)

30+ buoys were dropped within the black circle out in front of Teddy. Should be interesting to see what data they bring in tomorrow as the storm passes overhead.

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 17-Sep-20 10:00 PM

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

NDBC - Station 41044 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 41044 (21.582N 58.630W) - NE ST MARTIN - 330 NM NE St Martin Is.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 17-Sep-20 10:36 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.7 / 926.9mb/132.2kt

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 10:36 PM

16 ft wAves as 269nm

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 17-Sep-20 10:36 PM

ADT is going insane

It would be nice if IR didn't keep glitching out though

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 10:38 PM

Recon confirms that it’s over estimated.

Probably still around 120 knots

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 10:41 PM

Looks like it took a breather this afternoon. New convection firing

Westerly jog suddenly. Eye is wobbly (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 17-Sep-20 10:43 PM

EWRC?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 10:44 PM

Probably not based on recon. 2 passes and really no double wind maxima on FL or SFMR except on the outbound of the last pass for FL

But the SFMRs didn’t double peak with it so might be attributable to something else

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 17-Sep-20 10:46 PM

Considering how much the south eyewall has struggled I doubt an ERC any time soon

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 17-Sep-20 10:57 PM

Kinda amusing how ADT was way under yesterday now it's way over today (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 17-Sep-20 11:31 PM

A little to the left. And one double cyclone fujiwhara cuz of a reformed sally

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 18-Sep-20 07:10 AM

130mph

Max (Saint John, NB) 18-Sep-20 09:01 AM

How i get smacked

I'm. At the red dot

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 18-Sep-20 09:29 AM

GFS has you on the left edge. EURO has you dead center. euro is known to perform well with east coast storms, so definately worth a watch

this thing could be so huge that even a near-miss will be bad

Max (Saint John, NB) 18-Sep-20 09:30 AM

Pretty damn nervous watching this

Euro had me getting eyewalled yesterday

GFS had me getting feeder band hell zoned

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 18-Sep-20 09:31 AM

based on wind flow, you might actually get reserve surge, and the water will flow OUT of the bay

but only after its close, the initial surge could be pretty big, along with 20+ foot waves

Max (Saint John, NB) 18-Sep-20 09:34 AM

if water flows out of the bay, then thats going to be BAD

tide already gets super close to flooding everything when it isnt even windy

if that all flies right back in then uptown is prob gonna go underwater

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 18-Sep-20 09:41 AM

i know in the past st johns has had some really wicked storms. like pre-ww2

might be a good time to look up some history

Max (Saint John, NB) 18-Sep-20 10:05 AM

st johns and saint john have both gotten smacked very hard before

st johns can handle it because they have the infastructure, however saint john does not

we get pretty significant damage from every little weak storm that comes thru

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 18-Sep-20 10:06 AM

Euro has you get eyewalled

with 90kph winds jesus

GFS has it missing oyu

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 18-Sep-20 01:29 PM

looking like odds of a US landfall with teddy are <20%. a handfull of the ensembles see it happening but not alot

odds of NS landfall near 100% at this point. even if it hits the US. it will stall and come back in for a double tap

unfortanely we're close enough in the forecast range that the margin of error is smaller than the province of NS.

landfalling pressure between 945-960 is a dangerous range. storm could be huge. lets hope that the anomolously warm waters off the coast don't let it support those pressures

JoshuaClark 18-Sep-20 03:00 PM

GFS has you on the left edge. EURO has you dead center. euro is known to perform well with east coast storms, so definately worth a watch

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) The Euro is the bee's knees when it comes to tropicals.

JoshuaClark 18-Sep-20 03:26 PM

Has anyone looked long term, as in a week from this Sunday. The GFS has a cyclone forming in the Western Caribbean, tracking north, with an eventual landfall in Southeast Florida?

Wrong Thread.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 18-Sep-20 04:39 PM

Water temperature will mean less because it is going to be going extratropical by then.

It may be fully extratropical by then, actually.

Which means the windfield is gonna get big.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 18-Sep-20 10:58 PM

Back to

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 18-Sep-20 11:03 PM

Does it still contribute to ACE when it goes subtropical?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 18-Sep-20 11:04 PM

You mean post-tropical? The answer is no if you mean that.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 18-Sep-20 11:06 PM

Yes, sorry

Thanks

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 19-Sep-20 12:23 AM

New hot tower.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 19-Sep-20 11:08 AM

ERC, massive eye incoming

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 19-Sep-20 11:09 AM

Kinda reminds me of Dorian's ERC

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 19-Sep-20 01:53 PM

120mph winds

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 19-Sep-20 04:35 PM

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/ZxgEYCyT5tQIvHWSsnK3OQLKagNDRlsj2MfbSw8K8DY/%3Fwidth%3D463%26height%3D463/https/media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/756975900607774800/59A01421-3FFF-4FAB-BA0A-0669566DF084.jpeg

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 19-Sep-20 06:12 PM

burst of convection inside the eye...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 19-Sep-20 08:00 PM

No, this isn’t the WPAC, yes, this is Teddy

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 19-Sep-20 09:28 PM

Seems like the structure on Teddy is not as great as earlier.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 19-Sep-20 10:37 PM

I do not think Teddy is a major hurricane anymore

max surface wind from recon of 84 knots at roughly 10 PM

Not the same Teddy as we saw 48-72 hours ago.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 19-Sep-20 10:56 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 19-Sep-20 11:38 PM

Looks like Teddy is hitting Paulette’s wake, NNW side is just collapsing all around

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 20-Sep-20 04:20 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 20-Sep-20 09:41 AM

Teddy really veering off course currently

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 20-Sep-20 10:02 AM

Teddy is no longer a major, 105mph

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 20-Sep-20 10:13 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 20-Sep-20 12:32 PM

Teddy is getting a cold. A case of the cold water blues. But this isn't all good news

A stronger and taller storm would have a larger pull on it due to both shear and coriolis force. Because the storm is shorter and stunted (east to west stretched) it will turn right less

This could help explain the westward wobble and path deviation.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 20-Sep-20 02:17 PM

TS Watches issued for portions of the Nova Scotia coastline

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 20-Sep-20 04:32 PM

How did Teddy do in getting us ACE points?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 20-Sep-20 04:39 PM

It aced it

4

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 20-Sep-20 04:58 PM

In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012, thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds.

Nhc just compared Teddy to sandy

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 20-Sep-20 07:01 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1307809635269705729

NWS OPC (@NWSOPC)

Hurricane #Teddy will build phenomenal seas across portions of the western #Atlantic over the next several days. Seas to 19 meters (62 ft.) expected by Tue will pose extreme danger to mariners. Mariners should take measures to avoid the area!

62 feet waves

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 21-Sep-20 02:40 PM

Transition process looks to be beginning.

JoshuaClark 21-Sep-20 04:43 PM

We have 8-12ft surf on the northeast Florida coast and a coastal flood warning for the St. Johns River. The high winds knocked out our power here on base (Mayport NS) today. Near gale.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 21-Sep-20 05:13 PM

Though it's not Teddy it's the front he's merging with bringing those winds to FL.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 21-Sep-20 08:30 PM

One of the biggest 100 knot FL wind fields I’ve ever seen

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 22-Sep-20 09:29 AM

@Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) Posted this in Lobby and wow it's a dozer. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Sep-20 09:30 AM

the ring of fire from the trough to the SW is pretty amazing

that trough might wash out and make it's own storm potentially

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 09:38 AM

Recon is in Teddy now. Got 945.3 mb extrap in it

70 knot SFMRs on the SW side

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Sep-20 09:56 AM

That's indeed as deep as models were hinting, wow

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-Sep-20 10:40 AM

Its not going extratropical till late. I am guessing that is bad news for Canada

Max (Saint John, NB) 22-Sep-20 11:12 AM

Windy as fuck here

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Sep-20 11:22 AM

definately has some 'perfect storm' qualities to it

Max (Saint John, NB) 22-Sep-20 11:24 AM

Teddy is eating beta and some other extratropical cyclone is trying to eat teddy lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Sep-20 11:29 AM

turtles all the way down

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 02:22 PM

40 foot wave

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-Sep-20 03:13 PM

It would appear that Teddy is transitioning at the worst possible time, right as it comes ashore.

JoshuaClark 22-Sep-20 03:32 PM

@Max (Saint John, NB) Do be safe. Humor my ignorance but what is the probable impacts to NS, NB, and Newfoundland from storm surge?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Sep-20 03:48 PM

Nantucket and Cape Cod are getting TS-force winds.

Winds gusting 30-40 knots across parts of Nova Scotia.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 04:45 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1308482349886128128?s=20

NWS Boston (@NWSBoston)

Seas now up to 40 ft at buoy 44150, just north of #Hurricane #Teddy!

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/449226151316029450/758062972315762748/unknown.png

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Sep-20 04:57 PM

teddy is a freaking beast. on par with some of the largest tropical systems ever. almost as big as olga

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Sep-20 05:30 PM

1700 UTC showed that the system still had a low-level eye feature. For that reason and for simplicity's sake, the system will remain a hurricane on this advisory, although it is obviously a hybrid low with many characteristics of a non-tropical cyclone.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Sep-20 05:34 PM

"GINORMOUS"

JoshuaClark 22-Sep-20 06:11 PM

She's a bonny and a joy for everyone.

"Teddy is a very impressive cyclone on satellite images this afternoon, even from full-disk images. The hurricane's circulation is over 1000 miles wide, with an enormous distinct comma shape and frontal features especially in the eastern semicircle." (edited)

Teddy is an incredible system.

Check this out. Impressive, very impressive. Looking at the last few frames of the loop, it still has convection firing around the core circulation. Very impressive indeed.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-Sep-20 06:23 PM

Steady Teddy

JoshuaClark 22-Sep-20 06:31 PM

Nova Scotia is in for a beating.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Sep-20 06:50 PM

SFMR no higher than 60kt with only weakening expected from here on out - shouldn’t be too bad in terms of sustained winds

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 22-Sep-20 07:43 PM

Teddy now an EXT

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 07:47 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1308550660141412353?s=19

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Teddy Advisory 42A: Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Heading Toward the Nova Scotia Coast. Destructive Waves, Heavy Rain and Strong Winds Are Expected For Portions of Nova Scotia Tonight Through Wednesday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Max (Saint John, NB) 22-Sep-20 08:10 PM

@JoshuaClark pretty severe impacts happening here already

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Sep-20 09:47 PM

Whats it doing so far?

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:37 PM

There's so much wrong here in terms of the warnings and watches in place.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Sep-20 11:38 PM

Don't know why ME isn't under a TS warning if their in the TS-force windfield

Same for New Brunswick

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:39 PM

Same with New Brunswick, northern Nova Scotia, PEI

Not sure why they're only in a goddamn watch

Not to mention the hurricane force swath extends to the southwest Nova Scotia coast

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Sep-20 11:40 PM

Heck, why is Nova Scotia not under a Hurricane watch or warning?

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 22-Sep-20 11:40 PM

Can't remember if storm surge is factored into those watches/warnings

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Sep-20 11:40 PM

Since Teddy is sustaining itself at 70kts

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 22-Sep-20 11:40 PM

The wind field is expected to dissipate I guess, but clearly it's still large enough to where that is questionable

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Sep-20 11:40 PM

Even if it's lower bound, you'll still receive hurricane force wind gusts

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 22-Sep-20 11:41 PM

The last advisory had an H in a white circle

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:41 PM

Honestly, the most questionable part is northern Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 22-Sep-20 11:41 PM

extratropical hurricane

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:42 PM

Portions of New Brunswick and northern Nova Scotia/PEI are in the 90-100% TS force wind gust probabilities, as well as the ongoing current TS force wind radius, i'd assume that's enough for a tropical storm warning but idk lol

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 22-Sep-20 11:43 PM

Essentially, the NHC's main concern here is consistency in their outlook

since they are prioritizing public interaction and digestion of the info

Hence why Sandy was controversial, its hurricane status was "revoked" shortly before landfall

I assume all of this that would be inconsistent to us, who are used to what a forecast for this situation should look like, lines up much better with their previous discussions on impacts and the like (edited)

for the public

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:44 PM

Indeed, it's clearly extratropical by now

It's a hurricane strength extra/post-tropical cyclone

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Sep-20 11:46 PM

Reason why Maine isn't under a TS warning is probably because outside of gusty winds they aren't getting anything else from Teddy

There are wind advisories or high wind warnings that can cover that criteria, with TS warnings for the near shore waters

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:47 PM

Yeah, that makes some sense at least, but northern Nova Scotia is confusing for me

In their own watch text they claim it'll reach sustained winds that meet the criteria for a TS warning, and mention other TS hazards along with it, but no warning

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 11:48 PM

Environment Canada does all the TS warnings, watches, etc. not the nhc

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:48 PM

Indeed

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 11:48 PM

Nhc just relays it

Andy H. (Asheville, NC) 22-Sep-20 11:48 PM

All they can do is be consistent then

Conventional clashing...

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Sep-20 11:50 PM

Probably they are in the process of changing the guard on handling this system. Hence why NHC was PTC on the latest update

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Sep-20 11:52 PM

When coastal and/or coastal winds of 63 to 117 km/h caused by a tropical cyclone are expected to occur.

This is Tropical Storm Warning criteria for ECCC Here's the text from the TS Watch in place where no TS warning has been issued yet

Tropical storm watch in effect for: Pictou County Tropical storm force winds ahead of now Post-Tropical Storm Teddy are expected over the regions, but will remain just below wind warning criteria. Potential wind gusts: 65 to 80 km/h over exposed areas and along parts of the coast. Locations: The Annapolis Valley, northern Nova Scotia, and western Cape Breton.

Maybe it's not sustained enough?

Because they primarily mention wind gusts

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 23-Sep-20 12:13 AM

It's their call, and they're degree mets and they know the area better than I do so eh

Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Sep-20 07:16 AM

Btw weve been getting 70 kmh sustained for atleast 24h now

No ts watch even LOL

Not super gusty here its just sustained wind

Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Sep-20 08:58 AM

My back door got smashed in

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Sep-20 01:10 PM

"TEDDY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ECUM SECUM NOVA SCOTIA" Wow. that's a name.

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Max (Saint John, NB) 23-Sep-20 02:00 PM

Oh my. God I forgot about that place lmao

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Sep-20 02:12 PM

hey guys, what if we replaced the last 3 letters of our names with something silly, like Ecum Secum

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