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EVENT ARCHIVE / td-omar-2020
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 02-Sep-20 02:48 PM
Interesting we get an Omar channel. Things almost dead lol
50 knots of shear not being good to it
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 03:07 PM
Neat swirl tho
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 02-Sep-20 03:08 PM
I just caught up with everything.
I mean, it's a total fish storm.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 03:11 PM
The frontal low developing to its NE looks better than Omar does this afternoon
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 02-Sep-20 04:41 PM
Tropical Depression #Omar Advisory 9: Omar Weakens to a Tropical Depression. Expected to Become a Remnant Low Thursday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
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Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 02-Sep-20 04:46 PM
RIP Omar channel, we hardley knew you (edited)
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 04:57 PM
Probably will qualify for post tropical in a matter of hours
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Sep-20 05:00 PM
For it to survive previously as a tropical storm in the existance of 50-60kt VWS, that's impressive
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 05:01 PM
It's an extremely vigorous LLC; really ominous that this season is spitting them out left n right in even the most marginal of conditions
this 6
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:15 PM
But you know, if it doesn't produce 4 majors by Sept 1st it's 2013 2.0 (edited)
This season is reminding me of 2017 so far, a start with some robust TSs, then a couple of minor canes, then an RIing gulf Cat 4 monster, and then "haha wave train go brrrrrrrrrr"
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:21 PM
Heh pretty much... uncanny resemblance if the medium range modeling is close
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:22 PM
Climate models support a decent subtropical ridge over the Atlantic throughout the month.
I would not rule out an Irma-like track.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:24 PM
I think some of the guidance even showed a big wave taking a similar big SW dip like Irma a few runs ago
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:26 PM
I think 2005 and 2013 put some unrealistic expectations in people's heads. 2013 busting hard and 2005 massively overperforming were humongous anomalies, to people it's either 2005 or 2013, no middle ground. (edited)
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:27 PM
Yeah, exactly; to anyone who started tracking in 2005 everything is going to look weak
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:28 PM
It's like trying to use 4/27/11 as a measuring stick for a normal TOR risk day. (edited)
this 3
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:30 PM
Lol yup. Less than 15 violent tornadoes? BUST
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:31 PM
For hurricanes it's if it's not 2005 it must be 2013, for tornadoes it is if it is not 2011 it is 2018
But IIRC the reason 2013 flopped so hard was because of a gulf stream disruption.
That the climate models didn't predict.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:34 PM
Yeah something was way off with the thermohaline circulation, just happened suddenly; looking at indicators probably woulda been very above average if that hadn't suddenly happened
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 02-Sep-20 06:45 PM
SO, if I am reading this correctly, you are predicting a 2013 like bust for this season? Yao
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 02-Sep-20 07:01 PM
Well, we've already had a cat 4 so 2013 is out of the question
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 07:02 PM
Uh I am not, I am making fun of those screeching about 2020 being a bust season.
troll 3
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 02-Sep-20 07:02 PM
People are already calling bust?
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 07:03 PM
Mostly TSs and only one major by Sept 1 so therefore bust.
Nevermind there were 3 other hurricanes
And most TSs are robust, unlike the sheared 2013 messes
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 02-Sep-20 07:03 PM
Even though we've shattered records for earliest storms but nah, it's bust
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 07:03 PM
Even most of our TSs this year have been well-structured
2013 everything was a sheared mess, including it's strongest hurricane.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 07:38 PM
Humberto and Ingrid were both horribly struggling messes, Humberto looked good for like 12 hours, what a year
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Sep-20 12:10 AM
Omar's just about done.
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Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 03-Sep-20 07:51 AM
F
🇫 3
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Sep-20 11:54 PM
Surprisingly, Omar is still a Depression. Still in the game.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 12:04 AM
Who knew that one would last longer lol
Yao 3
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Sep-20 12:05 AM
troll
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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 04-Sep-20 12:05 AM
It clearly just will not die
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Sep-20 12:15 AM
Threaten THE HELL out of some fish.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 01:27 AM
It earned its name at this point tbh, screamed at it for stealing a name but it's a lot more robust than Kyle or Edouard
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Sep-20 11:07 AM
Omar still chugging along. A new convective burst this morning maintained its tropical status
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Sep-20 11:13 AM
omar wont die lmao
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 11:27 AM
Convection looks almost better this morning than it did yesterday somehow
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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 04-Sep-20 12:16 PM
Building up that ACE value, one little peck at a time...
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 04:35 PM
And he's STILL hanging on lmao
Still producing enough convection to hang on as a TD for at least another cycle
troll 4
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Sep-20 04:40 PM
troll
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Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 04-Sep-20 04:41 PM
Omar is trying to be the biggest inspiration of 2020.
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B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Sep-20 05:27 PM
Head on out, chugging and puffing as best it can, and slam into the UK.
East 2
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 10:48 PM
Lol
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 12:34 AM
Might have to take matters into my own hands... currently swimming over to Omar to kill him myself
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Sep-20 02:53 AM
...it just had another burst (edited)
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Sep-20 05:14 AM
500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 10:06 AM
"The year is 2029. Tropical Depression #Omar has just completed its 6th circumnavigation of the globe." https://t.co/DtS7s2XLJZ
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this 4
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Sep-20 02:57 PM
ATCF declares Omar remnants
The end is near
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 02:59 PM
Good
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Sep-20 02:59 PM
regenerates
troll 4
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Max (Saint John, NB) 05-Sep-20 03:58 PM
Ow.
That looks BAD
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 04:02 PM
Obviously a cat 5
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 05-Sep-20 04:24 PM
Cat 7
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 05-Sep-20 04:35 PM
...OMAR IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 56.9W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
🇫 8
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Sep-20 05:12 PM
Aww
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ModBot BOT 05-Sep-20 05:30 PM
Archived.
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