Stormtrack - td-omar-2020

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 02-Sep-20 02:48 PM

Interesting we get an Omar channel. Things almost dead lol

50 knots of shear not being good to it

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 03:07 PM

Neat swirl tho

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 02-Sep-20 03:08 PM

I just caught up with everything.

I mean, it's a total fish storm.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 03:11 PM

The frontal low developing to its NE looks better than Omar does this afternoon

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 02-Sep-20 04:41 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1301258107696287744

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Depression #Omar Advisory 9: Omar Weakens to a Tropical Depression. Expected to Become a Remnant Low Thursday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Martin M (Broken Arrow, OK) 02-Sep-20 04:46 PM

RIP Omar channel, we hardley knew you (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 04:57 PM

Probably will qualify for post tropical in a matter of hours

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 02-Sep-20 05:00 PM

For it to survive previously as a tropical storm in the existance of 50-60kt VWS, that's impressive

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 05:01 PM

It's an extremely vigorous LLC; really ominous that this season is spitting them out left n right in even the most marginal of conditions

6

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:15 PM

But you know, if it doesn't produce 4 majors by Sept 1st it's 2013 2.0 (edited)

This season is reminding me of 2017 so far, a start with some robust TSs, then a couple of minor canes, then an RIing gulf Cat 4 monster, and then "haha wave train go brrrrrrrrrr"

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:21 PM

Heh pretty much... uncanny resemblance if the medium range modeling is close

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:22 PM

Climate models support a decent subtropical ridge over the Atlantic throughout the month.

I would not rule out an Irma-like track.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:24 PM

I think some of the guidance even showed a big wave taking a similar big SW dip like Irma a few runs ago

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:26 PM

I think 2005 and 2013 put some unrealistic expectations in people's heads. 2013 busting hard and 2005 massively overperforming were humongous anomalies, to people it's either 2005 or 2013, no middle ground. (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:27 PM

Yeah, exactly; to anyone who started tracking in 2005 everything is going to look weak

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:28 PM

It's like trying to use 4/27/11 as a measuring stick for a normal TOR risk day. (edited)

3

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:30 PM

Lol yup. Less than 15 violent tornadoes? BUST

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 06:31 PM

For hurricanes it's if it's not 2005 it must be 2013, for tornadoes it is if it is not 2011 it is 2018

But IIRC the reason 2013 flopped so hard was because of a gulf stream disruption.

That the climate models didn't predict.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 06:34 PM

Yeah something was way off with the thermohaline circulation, just happened suddenly; looking at indicators probably woulda been very above average if that hadn't suddenly happened

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 02-Sep-20 06:45 PM

SO, if I am reading this correctly, you are predicting a 2013 like bust for this season?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 02-Sep-20 07:01 PM

Well, we've already had a cat 4 so 2013 is out of the question

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 07:02 PM

Uh I am not, I am making fun of those screeching about 2020 being a bust season.

3

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 02-Sep-20 07:02 PM

People are already calling bust?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 07:03 PM

Mostly TSs and only one major by Sept 1 so therefore bust.

Nevermind there were 3 other hurricanes

And most TSs are robust, unlike the sheared 2013 messes

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 02-Sep-20 07:03 PM

Even though we've shattered records for earliest storms but nah, it's bust

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 02-Sep-20 07:03 PM

Even most of our TSs this year have been well-structured

2013 everything was a sheared mess, including it's strongest hurricane.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 02-Sep-20 07:38 PM

Humberto and Ingrid were both horribly struggling messes, Humberto looked good for like 12 hours, what a year

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Sep-20 12:10 AM

Omar's just about done.

Ryan M. (Cincinnati, OH) 03-Sep-20 07:51 AM

F

3

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 03-Sep-20 11:54 PM

Surprisingly, Omar is still a Depression. Still in the game.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 12:04 AM

Who knew that one would last longer lol

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Sep-20 12:05 AM

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 04-Sep-20 12:05 AM

It clearly just will not die

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Sep-20 12:15 AM

Threaten THE HELL out of some fish.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 01:27 AM

It earned its name at this point tbh, screamed at it for stealing a name but it's a lot more robust than Kyle or Edouard

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 04-Sep-20 11:07 AM

Omar still chugging along. A new convective burst this morning maintained its tropical status

Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 04-Sep-20 11:13 AM

omar wont die lmao

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 11:27 AM

Convection looks almost better this morning than it did yesterday somehow

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 04-Sep-20 12:16 PM

Building up that ACE value, one little peck at a time...

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 04:35 PM

And he's STILL hanging on lmao

Still producing enough convection to hang on as a TD for at least another cycle

4

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 04-Sep-20 04:40 PM

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 04-Sep-20 04:41 PM

Omar is trying to be the biggest inspiration of 2020.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 04-Sep-20 05:27 PM

Head on out, chugging and puffing as best it can, and slam into the UK.

2

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 04-Sep-20 10:48 PM

Lol

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 12:34 AM

Might have to take matters into my own hands... currently swimming over to Omar to kill him myself

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Sep-20 02:53 AM

...it just had another burst (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 05-Sep-20 05:14 AM

500 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 ...OMAR STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 10:06 AM

https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1302078613676789765

Jake Carstens (@JakeCarstens)

"The year is 2029. Tropical Depression #Omar has just completed its 6th circumnavigation of the globe." https://t.co/DtS7s2XLJZ

Likes

283

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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 05-Sep-20 02:57 PM

ATCF declares Omar remnants

The end is near

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 02:59 PM

Good

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Sep-20 02:59 PM

regenerates

4

Max (Saint John, NB) 05-Sep-20 03:58 PM

Ow.

That looks BAD

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 05-Sep-20 04:02 PM

Obviously a cat 5

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 05-Sep-20 04:24 PM

Cat 7

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 05-Sep-20 04:35 PM

...OMAR IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.4N 56.9W ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

8

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 05-Sep-20 04:40 PM

https://tenor.com/view/sad-crying-spiderman-cryface-uglyface-gif-5701170

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 05-Sep-20 05:12 PM

Aww

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