Stormtrack - td-sally-2020

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 11:07 AM

It's expected to become Tropical storm and Hurricane possible "Sally" (edited)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150347.shtml?tswind120#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150347.shtml?key_messages#contents

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 11:14 AM

Fowey Rock reporting 45 mph winds sustained at 50 meters up

Gusts to above 50 mph

5

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 11:59 AM

Recon en route

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Sep-20 12:11 PM

RI indexes are all pretty low. They don't do well when the storm is over land

They will probably go up when jt pokes out over water next run

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 12:12 PM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 12:12 PM

Looks like the center largely missed the heavily populated centers and went over the marshy areas of south Florida. I’ll take the over on intensity. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 12:16 PM

Fowey Rock now at a 10 meter wind speed of 35 knots

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 12:19 PM

06z HWRF has TD19 skirting the MS and AL Gulf Coast before landfall

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-Sep-20 12:21 PM

She's got the look on satellite

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 12:24 PM

06z HWRF has TD19 skirting the MS and AL Gulf Coast before landfall

@Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) HWRF going with a major at landfall.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-Sep-20 12:26 PM

Looking good on sat, gonna be interesting seeing what it does once it's over the open gulf

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 12:27 PM

Think it’s still tilted but I guess recon will tell us for sure in an hour

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 12:46 PM

Fowey Rock wind graphic at 10 meters

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 12-Sep-20 12:50 PM

Why is it that the first hurricane I’ll experience has to mess up my travel plans, anyways is the surface circulation that far out in the gulf? It’s looking sheared.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 01:01 PM

Given the 11 am position from the hurricane center, it does still appear to be tilted. But, the mid-level center looks like it's trying to become the dominant center on radar (kind of like what Isaias did when it was going over PR). As Pat said, recon is enroute, so we'll see how much of this conjecture is true. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 01:17 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/754047876455465040/754389760075759687/hwrf_mslp_wind_19L_20.png

12z HWRF oh boy

2

951 mb mid cat. 3 hurricane

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 01:21 PM

That's a big surge issue for the MS/E LA coast.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 01:23 PM

https://t.co/YQq5pWzUYg

John Homenuk

John Homenuk on Twitter

“A major concern with #TD19 will be heavy rainfall and flooding. The storm is working through an envelope of very moist air (throughout the atmospheric column) and could slow down as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Ensemble signals for heavy rainfall are already significant.”

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 01:44 PM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1304837604156858368

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] #TD19's landfall intensity has a wide uncertainty range. Shear is forecast to approach 20-25 kt as west winds above 500mb encroach. However, if TD19 forms an inner core soon and the shear isn't enough to disrupt it, 2-3 days of intensification makes the ceiling h...

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 12-Sep-20 01:55 PM

We have Sally

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 01:55 PM

Chaser conversion in New Orleans.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-Sep-20 01:59 PM

Oh my god HWRF

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 12-Sep-20 01:59 PM

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TCPAT4&e=202009121800

IEM :: TCP from NWS AT4

TCP issued by NWS AT4 at 12 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

We have Sally

2

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 02:10 PM

@Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 the easiest way to tell a model is full of shit is when it predicts a cat 3 then 50 miles inland it's a depression.

I should tag @Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS). In that too

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 02:16 PM

If the storm is moving slower, wouldn't it make sense that the wind field would degrade after landfall? Not so sure that premise is "full of shit."

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 12-Sep-20 02:17 PM

Agreed. If the eye can get developed before shear picks up, Sally could be off to the races

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 02:17 PM

There is shear in the upper. But if it's small like the wind field is. Doesn't take much to kill it.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 02:18 PM

I think the main reason that happens this run is because this is going to be a small system

Looks like TS winds only extend 75 miles at the most

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-Sep-20 02:19 PM

it's still a TS at the end of that GIF, note the 982 pressure and TS force winds barely holding on (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 02:21 PM

Tropical Storm now.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 12-Sep-20 02:29 PM

I'm pretty sure if that HWRF run verifies then this will have followed basically the exact same track (not saying intensity) as Katrina sans hiring Florida as a hurricane first

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 02:32 PM

Not exactly, Katrina came into the coast directly from the south, this will be from mostly the east

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 02:40 PM

If sally had been an organized storm BEFORE reaching FL then yea she'd be a dangerous storm. This will be flood issue and "who moved my lawn chair" storm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 02:45 PM

https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1304850206245163016

Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. (@SteveWAFB)

Wrapped a conference call with our colleagues at @NWSNewOrleans a few minutes ago. Early messaging is 8-12 feet of surge possible from mouth of the MS River east along the MS coast with current track of #Sally. Important to note that is very track/intensity dependent.

7

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Sep-20 03:36 PM

https://youtu.be/eFFgbc5Vcbw

OldNick

Little Richard - Long Tall Sally

just enjoy :)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Sep-20 03:56 PM

An east to west track is much worse for surge than south north. It not only has a better wind vector, but it will have an extra 12-24 hours to push water. Surge will over perform whatever the category is

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Sep-20 04:07 PM

If this does infact hwrf hulk out. A cat 3/4 could produce surge equal or worse to Katrina

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 04:08 PM

951mb? I dunno? It's moving at 8knts.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Sep-20 04:10 PM

I think we need to worry less about the exact strength and more about the physics. The angle of attack is worst case scenario. And the damage from Katrina is still there. The barrier islands are a shadow of their self (edited)

I'd like to see an updated version of the slosh model for a due east angle of attack. I never really thought that was possible but here we are (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 12-Sep-20 04:50 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 04:51 PM

6-9 feet of storm surge is the first forecast

85 mph peak expected now

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 05:05 PM

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1304887896919470086

https://twitter.com/LoganGilesWx/status/1304888909940297728

Logan Giles (@LoganGilesWx)

Big time water issue coming for the Central Gulf. Do not pay attention to the category. This is water, water, water.

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 05:09 PM

Sure are stuck on the hwrf model

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 12-Sep-20 05:15 PM

Katrina hype is laughable. If it stalls Harvey.. Well forecasting all time records is wreckless too. Sally will be bad, but the met field needs to retain some credibility. Cat 2 has been my call. And devastating inland flooding. Too early to forecast catastrophic, imo. (edited)

6

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 05:25 PM

Be lucky to see more than entry level cat 1 as of 12z

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 05:31 PM

Wow Cat2? hmmm

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 12-Sep-20 05:44 PM

Not much higher than NHC. Hmmm?

‍♂️

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 12-Sep-20 05:55 PM

https://twitter.com/Brady30951303/status/1304896794925641728

BGWX (@Brady30951303)

@JkpWeather If we look at 8pm forecast from HWRF it indicates the convection further S too. Sally not going to take right away. It actually surprisingly somewhat similar to what it’s doing now. Props to the HWRF so far.

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 12-Sep-20 06:11 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 07:08 PM

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) over 96 ok. I thought NHC expect 85mph. Which I read wrong and it was 85knts, not mph. Oh geez my fault...

1

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 07:18 PM

NAM says cat 2

GFS strong T.S.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 07:19 PM

NAM are you feeling ok Beard? (edited)

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 07:19 PM

Just going threw them all.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Sep-20 07:21 PM

lol, oookkay...

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 07:22 PM

Comparing 18z runs out of shear boredom. It won't be anything but a flood maker.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 07:23 PM

would it be fair to say that Laura took a punch out of the Gulf of Mexico in terms of the amount of fuel available?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 07:24 PM

Maybe a little bit OHC wise, but the temps have recovered and are still above 85 degrees.

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 07:24 PM

It's had plenty of time to rebound. It's the upper level shear that will keep sally from being a beast.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 07:24 PM

ah

ty

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 07:24 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 07:24 PM

Sally will still be bad enough

beard (fort worth) 12-Sep-20 07:25 PM

LA will get lucky compared to MS and AL and FL. they'll get all the flooding.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 12-Sep-20 07:33 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 07:56 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 08:42 PM

https://youtu.be/0M2mOZeiVtA

Tropical Tidbits

Sally a Dangerous Threat to Central Gulf Coast; Paulette Expected t...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Follow my Twitter for more frequent updates: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the offi...

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 08:48 PM

15" of rain will ruin anyone's day

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 09:42 PM

https://twitter.com/BamaWXChase/status/1304956479808700416?s=19

Scott McClellan (@BamaWXChase)

The city of New Orleans is ordering MANDATORY evacuations for residents outside levee protection in Venetian Isles, Lake Catherine, and Irish Bayou. Evacuation should be completed by 6PM Sunday. #lawx #Sally

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 10:37 PM

Sally holds at 40 mph, peak still 85 mph

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Sep-20 01:19 AM

Consider ourselves lucky for now. 15-20 kts of NW shear has been keeping her weak. Sadly this has also slowed her down a bit.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 01:23 AM

LLC is still exposed via recon

Still tilted 50-60 miles

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 01:29 AM

How long is it expected to take for her to stack?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 01:36 AM

That’s what the models disagree on.

HWRF says less than 24 hours. Other globals say just before landfall

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 01:48 AM

Sally now 45 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 02:07 AM

Recon finding some fairly high surface winds. Flight levels quite low

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 02:33 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/754047876455465040/754590082924806234/recon_AF308-0219A-SALLY_zoom.png

Took 2 hours but recon found the flight level winds.

57 knots FL and 52 knots SFMR (edited)

May very well be a 50 kt TS (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 13-Sep-20 03:07 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 03:14 AM

Now a 1000.0 mb extrap

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 03:32 AM

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1305045241272164352?s=20

Philippe Papin (@pppapin)

The beginnings of a nascent inner core may be occurring with #Sally this morning SW of Tampa. Earlier shallow convection wrapped around the llc & is now growing in coverage + intensity. The last @53rdWRS leg had 57kt 925-hPa FL winds, 52kt SFMR, & 1000-hPa extrapolated press...

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 04:02 AM

Sally trying to wrap now.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 05:01 AM

New advisory peaks at 100mph

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 05:01 AM

Not suprised

Her core looks good on radar and her sat presentation looks decent.

Advisory jumped her up to 50 mph initial intensity too.

1001 mb

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 05:04 AM

Yeah recon finding 45kt in essentially clear air before those towers shot up on the NW side is pretty ominous

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 05:08 AM

HWRF might just be right again

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 05:12 AM

Its initialization of simulated IR and intensity has been spot on so far, and it was uncannily good with Laura too, I definitely think it can't be entirely ruled out and even the NHC says they're not discounting it and RI

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 05:14 AM

Sally won't be a Laura or a Michael but it definitely has the potential to become a very dangerous hurricane. (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 05:15 AM

Indeed

Given the essentially stalling Im wondering if freshwater flooding might be the big issue besides the surge

If that core of heaviest rain parks over NOLA, certainly won't be a good situation

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 05:16 AM

It's not a complete stall, the storm will still be moving albeit slowly

But surge + rainfall = backed up swollen rivers.

The river deltas and outlets are going to not be the place to be in all this.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 05:22 AM

Not a great year for Louisiana

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 13-Sep-20 05:30 AM

I live in Biloxi right now I’ll try to take pictures if they don’t force us to evacuate

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 09:16 AM

I live in Biloxi right now I’ll try to take pictures if they don’t force us to evacuate

@Michael Carty (Plano, TX) good luck. When I went to tech school there, not much seemed to be above sea level.

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 13-Sep-20 09:17 AM

What did you go to tech school for, I’m in the same situation

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Sep-20 10:26 AM

Based on analysis, we are about 12 hours from go time. Around midnight tonight she will pass into an area with near zero shear and 100 OHC. She Will have about 36 hours for an RI cycle.

2

20kt / 12h 10.4% 11.5% 10.9% 25kt / 24h 21.2% 42.4% 31.8% 30kt / 24h 15.4% 28.5% 21.9% 35kt / 24h 10.2% 28.5% 19.3% 40kt / 24h 8.2% 28.5% 18.4% 45kt / 36h 18.8% 39.8% 29.3% 55kt / 36h 11.3% 18.7% 15.0%

45kts in 36 hours looks like a decent bet. So 90kts at landfall is well possible

IR/WV differential shows very strong hot towers trying to move around the east side. She may already be starting an intensification phase. I would say cat 2 is likely, and nhc agrees. Cat 3 is less likely but possible still.

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 10:57 AM

What did you go to tech school for, I’m in the same situation

@Michael Carty (Plano, TX) Command Post

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 10:58 AM

Winds up to 60 mph. Hurricane warning extended west to Morgan City, LA

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 11:09 AM

Peak winds in the forecast down to 90 mph, but the discussion says it's possible Sally could be stronger than forecasted between 36h and 48hr points.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Sep-20 11:12 AM

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 12:03 PM

Was just looking at the timing of this storm. Night time flooding is gaurentee'd in this area. That's a dangerous risk to take to "chase" sally.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Sep-20 12:06 PM

Still some shear from the NW. No upstream convection. She isnt ready to RI.

Ships has held RI chances low this whole time. Preferred slow and steady. The dynamic models were really keen on it

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 12:09 PM

The trough that has caused NHC to shift their track west will be what keeps her from being anything more than a very weak cat 1. I'd be more worried about the 24 hour straight dump of rain than the winds.

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 12:45 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) i figured out where people are getting their cat 2 predictions today.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 12:52 PM

oh?

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 12:57 PM

Look at the latest NAM run. Takes pressure down to 954 at land fall

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 12:59 PM

Stop looking at the NAM folks. Never use the nam for intensity. Why are people still doing this?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Sep-20 01:17 PM

HMON and previous Hrwf runs all had sub 970 landfalls. Now hwrf is falling back.

Looking at the RIPA odds, it still gives her a 50/50 shot at RI taking her up to 90kts

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/mpswtcke/2020al19_mpswtcke_202009131500.gif

Based on IKE, she's almost a cat 1 now

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 01:20 PM

People are ignoring the trough to the north. It'll keep her out into the gulf but it will also keep her from gaining much more strength. Local media here is saying cat 2 also.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 01:22 PM

Nhc is 5 knots off a cat. 2 on their forecast. I really think it’s possible. In reality it depends if it can un-tilt in a timely manner

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Sep-20 01:23 PM

Convection building on the N upshear side. A few more hours of this and she will be ready for a strong intensity boost

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Sep-20 01:36 PM

Upshear towers with lightning now. She's really getting alot stronger now that shear is subsiding

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 02:03 PM

Cat 2 is basic pattern recognition. LLC keeps outrunning convection due to stiff synoptic low level flow. Seen it several times MDR south of strong sub-trop high. When this corrects Sally will quickly achieve hurricane strength. Cat 2 remains a reasonable forecast.

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 02:41 PM

Still quite tilted with this dropsonde

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 03:24 PM

AFK, gonna leave up GRearth and Rapid refresh Visible Sat. of Sally. You guys can view it in VnV at 2k and 60fps.

2

there's Bouy Cams?

https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1305224396802535426/photo/1

Jesse Ferrell (@WeatherMatrix)

And then there was the BuoyCam: #Sally https://t.co/rWUNkTv6Dn

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 04:01 PM

I agree that Cat 2 is a reasonable forecast.

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 04:17 PM

I'll take bets on weither it only goes to a weak cat 1 and bets on a cat 2. Who wants in?

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 04:18 PM

I'm 2

What's our wager?

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 04:19 PM

To keep it easy for everybody we can do $1 wagers. I say weak cat 1.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 04:20 PM

Cool. Does this have a payment app? Dollar a Category would be fun.

Gentleman bet is fine too.

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 04:22 PM

We can do paypal after land fall. I'll screen shot all bets.

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 04:22 PM

I got zero money in my account so I can't bet, but I will pick Cat 2 and sit back and watch who wins.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 04:23 PM

Hurricane casino party!

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 13-Sep-20 04:41 PM

(Do not mark me down as officialy betting. I have no way to pay or recieve payment.) Official bet: High end Cat 2. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 13-Sep-20 04:45 PM

CAT2/3 (borderline)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 13-Sep-20 04:45 PM

Uhhhh idk

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 04:49 PM

Jaden are you 1 or TS?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 13-Sep-20 04:50 PM

Id figure 1

This storm really reminds me of Nate but its slower

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 04:53 PM

i'm betting low end 1, it's only got 36 hours in "okay" conditions

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 04:55 PM

Shear is subsiding and 30C water with solid OHC should be pretty good conditions. (edited)

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 04:57 PM

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 05:06 PM

Check actual SSTs.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 05:11 PM

29-30, which is fine and not the inhibiting factor for this storm

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 05:13 PM

Define OK. I see 5-10 knots shear CIMSS U Wisc. Actually satellite derived winds.

OHC is around 100 which is solid.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 05:14 PM

ICON shifts way east, interested if gfs shows this

It actually landfalled on the Florida panhandle lol

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 05:17 PM

The shear vector isn't aligned with the storm's motion so the storm will "feel" its influence a little more, apparent in the sheared cloud pattern/vertical tilt

SHIPS has shear increasing over the next 36 hours, as does most guidance. Maybe it's wrong

‍♂️

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 05:18 PM

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) I was begining to wonder about that today. (edited)

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 05:20 PM

I wrote about that around 1pm Central above. No concerns.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 05:30 PM

It's eventually going to stack and quickly strengthen as you describe, the question is when

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 05:36 PM

If you're betting you need to tag me lol

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 05:46 PM

18z gfs way more bullish

977 mb right into Louisiana./Mississippi (edited)

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 05:56 PM

Gfs is a little excited. Euro never drops below 997

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 06:45 PM

@iCyclone: 18Z GFS continues the rightward trend, now showing #SALLY making a clean #Mississippi landfall Tuesday. The trend i… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1305275549061967872

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

18Z GFS continues the rightward trend, now showing #SALLY making a clean #Mississippi landfall Tuesday. The trend in the models today is E. Let's see if NHC adjusts the forecast track with the nighttime package.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 13-Sep-20 06:59 PM

NHC: ah sh**, here we go again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 07:17 PM

18z model cycle way more bullish.

Mainly due to it being slower and more east which is more time over water

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 13-Sep-20 07:30 PM

I'm betting (Cat 3) with 112 peak somewhere

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 13-Sep-20 07:52 PM

Risky bet

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 13-Sep-20 07:53 PM

https://twitter.com/wxmeddler/status/1305291006519148545

James Hyde (@wxmeddler)

The 18z GFS ingested ~48 dropsondes from the earlier NOAA flight and the early sondes from the G-IV. So the initialization should have a fairly good grasp on the shear/tilt of #Sally. Looks like ~10 kts of NW shear. Thermodynamics as a whole look great.

2

Looks like the 18z model runs got the dropsondes in them (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 13-Sep-20 08:55 PM

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1305306126611812352

Stu Ostro (@StuOstro)

#Sally :-o

Likes

115

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 08:59 PM

All finally centered over nearly stacked circulation.

Sally is under very low shear now.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 09:04 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305304070345949186

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

New data from the evening recon flight into #Sally indicates that the low-level center is getting tugged toward the new convective burst on the NE side, a trend that would likely lead to intensification if it persists overnight.

Yes it looks like it finally stacked

Also note the recon center is way ENE of the nhc position at 8pm

Likely due to this pull

Also 18z euro coming in at 971 mb

beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 09:22 PM

Low shear for now. That won't last long.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 13-Sep-20 09:26 PM

https://twitter.com/HRRRisonCater/status/1305314923216539650?s=20

Harrison Cater (@HRRRisonCater)

Some hail is evident aloft associated with a vortical hot tower over the center of TS #Sally. Uncommon for TC convection to have hail cores and speaks to the intense updraft there, which is also over 55kft tall. Sally may intensify more rapidly if this convection persists/wra...

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beard (fort worth) 13-Sep-20 09:29 PM

Big ass thunderstorm.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 13-Sep-20 09:33 PM

The only tropical system that I can recall having Hail in it was Hugo.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 09:33 PM

Ivan had hail in it when it was RI'ing.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 09:35 PM

Laura also had hail aloft

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Sep-20 09:37 PM

Satellite derived shear is very low over its Gulf Path. Mid South system is stalled so I'm not too concerned about shear through tomorrow. By then it'll have established some of its own outflow.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 13-Sep-20 09:41 PM

Current satellite of Sally.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 10:30 PM

Recon VDM says Sally has an eyewall

31 mile wide eye and open to the SW

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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 10:31 PM

dat big

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 10:35 PM

Probably won't see significant RI with an eyewall that big. It's a freaking truck tire for crying out loud.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 13-Sep-20 10:36 PM

For comparison, Paulette is 40 miles wide

Laura was about 25 miles wide

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 10:37 PM

Yeah but that is and was orginized systems this is still messy.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 10:41 PM

Some major league lightning in the area of the center right now. It's starting to ramp up quickly.

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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 13-Sep-20 10:48 PM

An eyewall that large probably won't last at that size, usually see some contraction as systems intensify (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 13-Sep-20 10:55 PM

Hurricane warnings pulled east to Alabama/Mississippi line. No doubt in response to the shift east by the 18z models. Storm surge warning tugged to the Alabama/Florida line, including Mobile Bay. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 11:43 PM

@NycStormChaser: The latest update from @NHC_Atlantic shifts Sallys landfall location 42 miles east and slows it down by 16 hours. https://twitter.com/NycStormChaser/status/1305350693411319809/photo/1

Nicholas Isabella (@NycStormChaser)

The latest update from @NHC_Atlantic shifts Sallys landfall location 42 miles east and slows it down by 16 hours.

beard (fort worth) 14-Sep-20 01:08 AM

That will be horrible for New Orleans. Means non stop raining in a bowl instead of getting a short break.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:15 AM

cimss estimate just came in at 991mb - 60kts

she's getting much better ornagized under that CDO

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:24 AM

models shifting back toward a cat 2 landfall again. maybe a little more. oh boy.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:27 AM

https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1305371138231595009

Hank Dolce (@hankd_wx)

#Sally has really started boosting in organization. A large convective burst earlier has been able to sustain itself and develop into a CDO, with recon even reporting an eyewall present, albeit still open. This could be a hurricane by morning if this persists. https://t.co/WJ...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:40 AM

Its 36 hours to landfall or more, and reports of slight water rise already on the coast near the river mouth. I wonder how much water piling will occur

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 02:10 AM

Euro trending slower, very rare Day 3 WPC high risk for flooding

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 05:54 AM

ADT is confused

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 08:28 AM

bruh

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 08:44 AM

Adt lost its mind. The center might be retrograde building

A handful of CI readings came through of like 5-6 in between the 2.9s. this thing could crap out an eyewall suddenly and gain 20 kts in a flash

Look at the tropospheric ripples. Almost totally symmetrical. Never seen anything like that. That inner cell is just a lightning storm from hell

beard (fort worth) 14-Sep-20 09:12 AM

The result of being just a strong thunderstorm.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 09:41 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 09:43 AM

Center relocation it seems

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 09:47 AM

I can't read that. So small lol.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 09:57 AM

euro member 3 - stall and RI

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 14-Sep-20 09:58 AM

Looks like it has a half of a eyewall

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 09:58 AM

Bicycle spokes on satellite. Here we go! Low shear Gulf magic.

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 10:06 AM

wow, euro ensembles are all over the place. totally unreliable once the stall occurs. some have it going west to houma then back N. some stall south ramp to a cat 3/4 and then push into FL PH. just all over. never seen euro so scattered for a short period storm

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 10:07 AM

I still think Cat 2 is a reasonable forecast. Feeling better about that finally, lol!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 10:07 AM

i thought cat 2 was locked in 2 days ago, then yesterday i thought i was wrong. and today i'm pretty sure its locked in again

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Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 10:08 AM

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 10:09 AM

based on the OHC under the storm, SHIPS model intensity should average 4-6 KTS too low for every 24 hours over the OHC. so feel free to add 8-12 kts to whatever SHIPS currently says

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Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 10:09 AM

Vapor hints subsidence in progress center. Should be an eye soon.

Oh that's a good method with SHIPs. Many have forgotten how to really forecast.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 10:11 AM

there was a really nice study that showed ships error relative to OHC. <50 ships is too high by 2kts per 24 hours. 50-75 2-4 kts low, 75-100 4-6 kts low, going up linearly to 150 as 8-10 kts low

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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 10:11 AM

Has recon found stronger winds or a lower pressure yet?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 10:11 AM

nope. convection is leading the charge, it will need to complete the eye before we see a big drop, i would bet

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 10:12 AM

Just looking at the recon data on TT, it appears to me that there's some tilt to the vortex. Maybe I'm seeing things.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 14-Sep-20 10:13 AM

Recon had a 2mb drop between the two passes

There was a tilt, with the relocation that's been mostly dealt with

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 10:13 AM

Gotcha. Thanks @Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL)

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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 14-Sep-20 10:13 AM

This is ahead of most modeling so ceiling is prob. higher

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 10:14 AM

Oddly NWP from Saturday is doing better than NWP from Sunday. They can zig zag due to initialization. Why I favor fundamentals over models. (edited)

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 10:28 AM

Also none of the 12z models ingested what we are watching in real time.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 10:48 AM

5 mb pressure fall in the new center. Looks like the new center is at 26.4 N/86.8 W (edited)

Pretty big area of 55-65 kt winds in the SE quadrant, too.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 10:49 AM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/754047876455465040/755077282040643734/Eh4h7VMXYAIffAe.png

This thing is going off

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 10:58 AM

Hurricane warning tugged east to the Alabama/Florida border.

beard (fort worth) 14-Sep-20 11:06 AM

https://tenor.com/view/police-siren-siren-gif-14993722

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:18 AM

radar shows whats looks like could def be the eye finally wrapping around on the N side

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flight level inbounds 70-75 kts. so still probably just under a hurricane at teh surface

60k ft towers. them some big boys

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 11:27 AM

60k ft towers. them some big boys

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) Some of those tops are -90C or colder. Only in the tropics.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:27 AM

i haven't seen pink (on IR) that deep that far north since michael. not even laura's tops were that cold (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 11:30 AM

FL winds 50-60 kts in the northern/northwestern quadrant according to the latest recon ob.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:30 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/dgtldvor/2020al19_dgtldvor_202009141500.gif

see the handful of T-numbers way head of the curve? ADT isnt' processing the center correctly. we could be looking at a T 5 to 6 once the eye forms. winds would take 12-24 hours to pickup by thats one reason why i'm still confident cat 2 is a good forecast

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 11:35 AM

Had a 61 knot SFMR in the NW quad, could be a hurricane already

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 11:35 AM

Agree. Cat 2 is a quite reasonable forecast.

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 14-Sep-20 11:38 AM

NO ONE can tell me this is a dang storm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:40 AM

@Michael Carty (Plano, TX) from a Dvorak point of view, its a cat 1-2. from a kinetic energy POV its a cat 1, wind always lags behind convection

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/mpswtcke/2020al19_mpswtcke_202009141200.gif

IKE, the scale we should be using.

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 14-Sep-20 11:43 AM

I’ll never understand why they really said “look at the wind” and called it a day especially when so much goes into devastation

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:43 AM

thats why IKE and SDP are much better measurements of power. let me find the link

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php

put in laura's numbers and it will show you she was nearly as poweful as katrina. thankfully she hit in a less populated area

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 11:44 AM

Just had a 70 knot SFMR In the north quad

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:45 AM

11am special advis 80mph? here we go?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 11:45 AM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 11:45 AM

Going to jump really fast looks like

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 11:45 AM

It might be a tad suspect

But a ton of lower 60 knot SFMRs

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:45 AM

looks like they lost alt. right as it hit. major turbulence (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 11:48 AM

984 mb extrap

That is a massive drop

998 mb to 984 mb in what? 3 hours?

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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 11:49 AM

Holy crap!

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 11:50 AM

Near 80 knot SFMR

This thing is nearly a cat 2

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 11:52 AM

Uh yikes

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 14-Sep-20 11:54 AM

Insane amount of lightning in the eyewall rn

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:56 AM

i told you dvorak was seeing a cat 2. give it a few hours. EURO still had several ensembles members /w sub-960 landfalls

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 11:58 AM

Would not be shocked to see the eye suddenly jump out if the eyewall can close up

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 11:59 AM

With the radar shooting thru such tall storms, the beam would be attenuated, making it hard to see the other side of the eyewall.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 14-Sep-20 12:00 PM

Don’t be shocked if later today Keesler Air Force Base flys most, if not all of the Hurricanes Hunters aircraft out of the way. (edited)

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Lee S (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 12:02 PM

I doubt they are still there at this point.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 12:04 PM

Officially hurricane Sally

85 mph

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 12:04 PM

There we go. Think a major is definitely on the board with the way it's intensifying.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 12:05 PM

Special advisory will be issued to update the intensity forecast

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 12:05 PM

https://twitter.com/iembot_nhc/status/1305537407903703042

IEMBot NHC (@iembot_nhc)

NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) at Sep 14, 11:00 AM CDT https://t.co/hs8b8vknii

Just the whole thing if you were interested

I'm also right in the cone, may get a TD/Minimal TS out of it

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 12:08 PM

Looks like it officially RI’d

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beard (fort worth) 14-Sep-20 12:08 PM

Y'all hyping the hell out of this storm lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 12:09 PM

impressive and this animation on rapid refresh Sat. is something else. You see this like huge pressure or gravity wave go out from center when it started Ramping up. wow!

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 14-Sep-20 12:10 PM

been loving watching the sat this morning

it's like a bomb went off in the center. nature's a beast

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 12:11 PM

agreed

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 14-Sep-20 12:12 PM

Hail Trace is chasing Sally. the team left this morning so I think our presence super charges canes lol

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 12:12 PM

It's been really cool to watch this explode this morning.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 12:12 PM

@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) oh that's why and figures.

I put up the rapid refresh Sat in Wx D. VC if you want to see it. Wow.

Like watching someone pushes hard down on the center of a waterbed. Then this big symmetrical wave just rolls out...

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 14-Sep-20 12:28 PM

Beard ngl you've been doing the opposite

There's a difference between hype and being shocked at impressive fast intensification

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 12:31 PM

uP TO 90

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 12:31 PM

Up to 90 mph now.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 12:33 PM

Aaand forecast peak 105

With additional adjustments possible according to discussion

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 12:35 PM

Regardless of models, fundamentals always supported this outcome. Kind of like waiting until 22z for the DL to go.

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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 12:40 PM

Highly impressive but not surprising considering the seasonal indicators and forecast

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 12:42 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/4kmsrbdc/2020al19_4kmsrbdc_202009141610.jpg

dvorak looks amazing. those deep greys coming in

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 12:49 PM

24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

12 hrs no landfall? no strengthen?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 12:51 PM

Long Tall Sally

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 12:53 PM

Broken?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 12:54 PM

either they think the shear will murder any chance of intens. during that 12 hours, or they are hoping for land interference (which i dont htink will happen)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 12:56 PM

Gotta keep in mind those are shallow waters and during that slow crawl intensity will cap out at some point due to upwelling.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 12:56 PM

jesus the pink is almost all the way around

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 12:57 PM

Yikes

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 01:02 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/754047876455465040/755110804273234000/155356_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

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I’m not sure if the public can interpret this lol

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 14-Sep-20 01:03 PM

I can't

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 14-Sep-20 01:03 PM

Sat presentation is looking amazing, posting a loop of the last 45 frames from Tropical Tidbits

gonna take a sec to upload lol

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:07 PM

no eye yet? (edited)

15 - 20 " of rain possible. wow!

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 01:10 PM

Also from discussion elsewhere, likely Sally has a CCC which is very rare for a TC

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:11 PM

CCC?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:11 PM

Central Cold Cover

Usually signals an arrest of intensification

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:11 PM

meaning?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:11 PM

But in this case, it's the exact opposite

Sally has continued to respond to moderate pressure falls and increasing organization of it's CoC

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:12 PM

looks like there may be warming near the SE side of the surface center

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=19L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 01:12 PM

Look at typhoon Gloria for an extreme example of a CCC

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:13 PM

what does warming there signify?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:13 PM

Subsidence

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:14 PM

so the storms are weakening?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:14 PM

No, means it could be attempting warm an "eye"

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:15 PM

ah

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:15 PM

Attempting to clear out those thunderstorms that obscure the CoC (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 01:15 PM

There’s an official name for it? I’ve always just called it the ring of death.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:19 PM

The ring of death is visible now on the KPOE radar on Radarscope

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 01:20 PM

Back, what I miss?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:20 PM

eye possibly trying to clear

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 01:20 PM

oh a ccc

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 01:21 PM

Probably one of the first times ever we’ve had recon in a CCC tropical cyclone

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 01:21 PM

data data data.

SO ccc shows me it's leveling out for now? (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:22 PM

Its kinda scary that the last 2 GOM storms eerily resemble WPAC storms in their evolution (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 01:23 PM

It might be, recon showing pressure has held steady since the original 984mb pass

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 01:24 PM

BTW, GL Hailtrace guys! @John Choquette (Edmond, OK)

I should say guys and Gals.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 14-Sep-20 01:24 PM

lol yes

thanks im sitting this one out but frank and derik will be doing live stream stuff once they get down there

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 01:26 PM

I'd love to go. Just this Covid and school with kids being home. Has me tied down.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:39 PM

ir/wv differentials are throwing -4C numbers out. literally never seen that in the atlantic

those cloud tops are just nuts

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:40 PM

whats that mean?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:41 PM

90kt SFMR

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:42 PM

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=19L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

IR temps minus WV temps differential. its a way of showing intense convection

and check out microwave 85hz. its gone black over the entire CCC

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:43 PM

Does that signify forming an eye or weakening?

Or do we not know yet?

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 14-Sep-20 01:44 PM

I really don’t understand this storm what is keeping it from going crazy besides water temps

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 01:46 PM

OHC's are 75-100, enough for slow intes or a little RI. the low-level center is still probably not lined up yet

there is a bi-modal signal, of 1 large storm on the west side, 1 on the east

that's offten a precursor to an eye forming

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 01:48 PM

Satellite trends honestly make it look like it's headed for Mobile

I was gonna be down there this week but canceled last week because I didn't think anything exciting was going to go on lmao

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 01:49 PM

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305562520913170432?s=20

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

[#NerdTweet] Because #Sally's pressure fell rapidly, we now have a wind field that is tight on the north side but broad on the east side of the center. We could see a temporary pause in rapid strengthening while the circulation adjusts to the new pressure field and symmetrize...

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305562522582482944?s=20

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

This is actually shown well on HWRF, which stops deepening for a few hours until the current hook structure wraps up into a more circular core, at which point quick intensification resumes. https://t.co/KKyV7jOfL4

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 01:57 PM

That helps clarify

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:02 PM

https://twitter.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1305554501575737344

CIRA (@CIRA_CSU)

The last 30 hours of Hurricane Sally bubbling and strengthening. https://t.co/0zTvRYrkq3

Likes

157

Just impressive and that little jog North turn there at the end.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:15 PM

so, the waters on the coast there are pretty shallow, so OHC is low....but shallow water means less cool water below for upwelling to occur if it stalls. it will just keep churning the same shallows over and over, maybe feeding off of the higher OHC to the south

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 02:16 PM

Sally is forming an inner eyewall, her inner core is tight, about 10 miles wide.

No wonder she's ramping up so quickly

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:17 PM

there it is

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 02:19 PM

The 90 kt SFMR was from a SE-NW pass, right? If so I can believe it with this.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 02:19 PM

12z euro pushes landfall even further back

Early Thursday morning or late late Wednesday (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:21 PM

Hey if it keeps doing this. I can drive down Saturday? lol

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 14-Sep-20 02:25 PM

I really am feeling this might make a run at low end Cat 3 now

Especially if it gets more time

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 02:26 PM

Upwelling might be an issue

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:26 PM

yea i was just goignt o say that

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 02:26 PM

If it continues to slow down. High end intensity will go down

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:26 PM

969 for euro before it weakens before landfall. cat 3 well within range

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:26 PM

wonder how deep that warm water goes?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:27 PM

that shelf is very very shallow, it will depend on how far north it goes

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:27 PM

ok

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:27 PM

basically everything N of the storm is <200m deep

just SW of the storm it drops to >1600m

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:30 PM

4300ft difference, that's a bit of a drop off in the pool.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 02:31 PM

The only way upwelling becomes a major issue is if it slows to under 2 or 3 mph. Right now, it's not expected to do that. It's warm all the way to the coast and at depth, I could see this strengthening all the way up to landfall.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 02:32 PM

New convective hot towers near the CoC

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:35 PM

Given the shelf topography and stratification presumed here, the depth-averaged temperature Td increases as the bottom depth becomes less than ddo=85 m, the depth of mixing over the deep ocean given this rather stable stratification

from a paper on OHC. so the upwelling won't do much because the average depth temp is actually HIGHER than in deep waters

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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 02:38 PM

not good for coast.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:39 PM

there is an asterix in this case. there is a major drop off just to the south. water will be pushed UP that drop off and into the shelf area, this could rapidly cool the coastal water IF the water advects to the north

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 02:55 PM

Not to wobble watch, but it looks to me that the center is wobbling southwest on Eglin AFB radar.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 02:58 PM

not only a SW wobble, but new hot towers on SW side of eye /w lightning

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 03:01 PM

SST at buoy 42039

It’s on the east side of the storm so moving away but something to watch as it makes its turn in a day or two

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 14-Sep-20 03:03 PM

Air Force recon just took off from Ellington Field in Houston

Maybe about a hour or so until it arrives at the storm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 03:09 PM

KVOA with a gust to 63 knots. 52 knots sustained

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 03:26 PM

69 kt wind gust at KVOA

Slightly elevated station at 160 meters

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 03:29 PM

buoy 42039 is just below the main shelf, it has a south facing escarpment that leads down into the depths. this is exactly we're we would expect upwelling to occur in this case. the question is...how far will the upwelling make it north? the storm is moving into an area /w a much lower depth and wider shelf

but there is of course, de soto valley, which is a really narrow deep trench in the middle of the shelfs. very high OHC but very easy to upwell it would seem

am i seeing this wrong or did official just jump to cat 3 on your model charts?

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 14-Sep-20 03:37 PM

OFCI is official, correct>

If so, you observed correctly

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 03:40 PM

bad news friends: SHIPS for salley 18z Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.9% 40.0% 32.5% 29.5% 12.6% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 28.7% 35.3% 25.7% 25.1% 9.5% 14.7% 4.1% 0.2%

4

those are pretty stiff odds. +35 kts = 115 kts in 24 hours. ouch

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 03:44 PM

Hurricane force sustained winds at KVOA at 65 knots also

80 knot wind gust

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 03:44 PM

so. 50/50 odds of a solid cat 3. 3/10 odds of a borderline cat 4. HWRF and HMON do it again.

1

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 14-Sep-20 03:51 PM

Chart above is mph, but colors are knots.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 03:52 PM

Definite trend on the models of an eastward shift and slower. Euro, EPS, GFS, GEFS, HMON all bring Sally in early to midday Wednesday. HWRF is tomorrow afternoon.

Regardless of wind impacts (which will be bad), this looks like it's going to be one helluva flood event.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 14-Sep-20 03:56 PM

https://twitter.com/Kyle_WPMI/status/1305593864032530435

Kyle Hanson (@Kyle_WPMI)

Boarding up the windows just in case at NBC 15.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 04:00 PM

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 14-Sep-20 04:01 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 04:03 PM

latest RIPA is in. ouch Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 72.8% 39.7% 56.3% 25kt / 24h 70.8% 61.0% 65.9% 30kt / 24h 70.8% 61.0% 65.9% 35kt / 24h 70.8% 61.0% 65.9% 40kt / 24h 32.3% 57.4% 44.8% 45kt / 36h 34.7% 29.0% 31.8% 55kt / 36h 12.1% 14.0% 13.1%

that seems a bit aggressive. those are literally the highest % ive seen RIPA poop out in the last 2 years (edited)

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 14-Sep-20 04:07 PM

Storm is taking a break right now. Pressure hasn't dropped in the last 2 hours or so of passes (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 04:10 PM

we're during the diurnal minimum. storm has formed a rough eyewall. winds catching up to the convection. 6-12 hours of downtime before another attempt at RI

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 14-Sep-20 04:10 PM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 04:11 PM

Whoa

Is that elevated?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 04:11 PM

100@ 174 feet

so 90-95mph at 3m possible. confirms NHC speeds. its also quite far from the eye. so the radius of max wind is WAY out there

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 04:12 PM

100@ 174 feet

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) LOL answered my own question. Derp.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 14-Sep-20 04:12 PM

174 feet is not that far above the ground, it's still below the height of a short highrise building.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 04:14 PM

Haven't seen that in a while

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 04:18 PM

that microwave is straight FIRE

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 14-Sep-20 04:19 PM

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1305596753253720067

Jeremy DeHart (@JeremyDeHart53d)

Rough ride today into now-Hurricane #Sally. "Pulsing" eyewall trying to wrap from E-W. Tough to fix w/the unexpected NE jog, crazy wind shifts & a LOT of clear air turb. All indicative of RI. ~50 kt increase in 4 hrs def qualifies. Keeps upper end intensity in play. Not good....

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 04:22 PM

102kt gust at KVOA...jesus

4

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 14-Sep-20 04:24 PM

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305602966146162688

Jack Sillin (@JackSillin)

Latest Hurricane Hunter plane is now through Sally's SW eyewall. Reporting winds of 65 kts in this part of the storm, which we'd expect to be the weakest. This is up from 45-50kts during the last recon pass through the SW eyewall. The storm is definitely still strengthening...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 04:25 PM

reminder: the only shear right now is from the SW. the storms blowing up in the upshear quad (SW) is a dead giveaway for RI

bimodal towers again, now wrapped to N and S sides. she's trying really hard to carve out an eye

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/amsusr89/2020al19_amsusr89_202009141757.gif

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 14-Sep-20 04:44 PM

7

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 14-Sep-20 04:47 PM

Peak is 110

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 04:52 PM

Its so close to shore. It must really be crawling

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 04:52 PM

NHC is usually conservative so honestly a major doesn't look impossible

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 04:54 PM

am I seeing things, or is the coldest cloud tops around Sally wrapping around the circulation?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 05:16 PM

the north / NW towers are trying to wrap around. it's getting ready to go into that crazy spinny phase were the towers just looop around for 6-12 hours before suddenly an eye drops out and its a cat 4

lets play follow the gray blob: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/4kmsrbdc/2020al19_4kmsrbdc_202009142040.jpg

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 05:33 PM

radar presentation of Sally still not that impressive

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 14-Sep-20 05:39 PM

There’s some mid level dry air on the south and east side. Should fill back in overnight, according to the HWRF.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 05:42 PM

ah

looking like Sally will be over water for the next 12-18 hours

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 05:50 PM

4 nautical mile wide eye per recon

Still open to east

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 14-Sep-20 06:33 PM

https://youtu.be/5daY0lh8XRw

Tropical Tidbits

Sally Intensifying with Max Winds of 100 mph as it Approaches the G...

Website: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ You can support Tropical Tidbits on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=651594 Follow my Twitter for more frequent updates: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the offi...

beard (fort worth) 14-Sep-20 06:38 PM

So nobody is going to go nuts over sally jumping to a cat 2? Surprised

4

3

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 06:41 PM

the convective burst from earlier today seems to have subsided

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 14-Sep-20 06:44 PM

https://twitter.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1305637501189718016

Aaron Rigsby (@AaronRigsbyOSC)

Multiple vehicles stranded, including two folks still attempting to dig theirs out on Dauphin Island, AL. Surge already damaging homes and sand blocking roadways. #ALwx

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 14-Sep-20 06:46 PM

never park on the beach before high tide. Happens here weekly

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 07:05 PM

CCC building over the eye again. repeat the last 6 hours

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 07:06 PM

I have noticed Royce that the convection can not sustain itself more than a several hour period around the center of Sally through the day today

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 07:08 PM

yup, a CCC can't hold together except under rare conditiosn

uusually bands-out pretty soon afterward

its looking more like a mature cat 2, and less like an RI'ing cat 1 that could be a cat 4 at any moment

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 07:25 PM

2 days ago i locked this in at cat 2. yesterday i was like well im wrong it might not even hit cat 1, then this morning i'm like cat 2, no cat 3, cat 4? now feels like cat 2 is good again. this forecast is a nightmare

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 07:33 PM

Never underestimate 2020, its going Major!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 07:36 PM

KVOA has had winds gusting over hurricane str for 4 hours+

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 08:39 PM

Something went wrong with this sonde lol

We are in big trouble if that’s the pressure

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 08:44 PM

Sally has backed off quite a bit since earlier today based on satellite

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 08:47 PM

Recon is finding it slightly weaker

Probably hold this way until it can close off it’s eyewall. Been open to the south all afternoon and evening (edited)

4

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 08:54 PM

to be honest, Sally right now looks like a big comma head

Corbin K. (Columbus OH) 14-Sep-20 09:11 PM

Death comma

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 09:54 PM

She appears to be blowing up again

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 10:00 PM

yes

watching the lightning output too

still somewhat open to the east side for now

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 14-Sep-20 10:07 PM

Nice convective burst in the last hour

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 10:43 PM

KVOA has had hurricane force winds, often sustained, for nearly 10 hours

4

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 14-Sep-20 10:45 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 10:50 PM

Massive flooding, I was in 13" inches of rain in 24 hrs in 2015.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 14-Sep-20 11:16 PM

3mph, jesus

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 11:16 PM

I believe that is defined as a crawl

beard (fort worth) 14-Sep-20 11:17 PM

Repeat of harvey but in LA. models have been saying that all week.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 14-Sep-20 11:17 PM

Looks like the latest burst is collapsing again

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 11:29 PM

We have been updating the info as it comes in and we are available.

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 14-Sep-20 11:37 PM

No eye though? (maybe small & just doesn't show?) Or did I happen to look when its in an eyewall replacement cycle or something?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 11:39 PM

eyewall is open on the south side. Inner core is very small. (edited)

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 14-Sep-20 11:53 PM

Thanks Glen..

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 15-Sep-20 12:06 AM

Out of curiosity I looked at some of the other options on satellite view. I'm guessing that 'channel' that's visible on the NE side is the dry air they mentioned that's being wrapped in..

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Sep-20 12:10 AM

Image on left you see that dry air.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 12:13 AM

the hot towers are now in the spiny phase. it will burn out an eye soon

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Sep-20 12:14 AM

I'm seeing -80°c towers on the NW.

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 15-Sep-20 12:17 AM

So wait, last night that heavy rain storm I walked through to grab a cola was a hurricane?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Sep-20 12:18 AM

on the east coast? huh?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 12:18 AM

Well not a hurricane at the time you walked through it

beard (fort worth) 15-Sep-20 12:20 AM

I need to mute this chat lol i should be down there but i had to adult today.

Maladash (Palm Beach County, FL) 15-Sep-20 12:23 AM

Nah, it’s just crazy to see a TS/Hurricane pass through with little to no fan fare, even on local media. It’s just kinda interesting is all. Also I wasn’t saying like eye wall brunt, but that edge did pass over my town from the 8:58pm yesterday image looks like. IDK, just weird to see it and not realize.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 15-Sep-20 01:26 AM

Because it was a tropical depression when it was over you

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 15-Sep-20 02:03 AM

weakened to 90mph at the intermediate advisory

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 02:58 AM

Weakened but windfield expanded

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 04:16 AM

Core is improving on radar.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 05:07 AM

No longer forecasted to strengthen much

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 07:42 AM

https://twitter.com/BrantlyWx/status/1305828470719680513

Brantly Keiek (@BrantlyWx)

While many residents were preparing for Hurricane #Sally on Monday, a quick check of the Biloxi Lighthouse camera shows someone was taking a little joyride... https://t.co/TM8zBismxX

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 08:20 AM

Lack of media coverage, if true on the Cosst, is appalling. Flooding!

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 15-Sep-20 08:26 AM

so far, ~60 mph winds along the coast

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 09:21 AM

We lost buoy 42040 over night. It went adrift.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 09:23 AM

KVOA near hurricane force winds, with hurricane gusts, since 2pm yesterday

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 09:33 AM

Hell of a hurricane party on those two platforms last night.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 10:09 AM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.3 / 975.4mb/ 72.2kt

She's not dead yet. Still plenty of time for a sudden run at cat 2 again

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 10:11 AM

Probably will. VIS looks healthy again. Radar still, well... Sally.

5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 10:14 AM

24-48 hours of surge and TS wave action along much of the coast. How many of those sand bar islands will be unrecognizable after this?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 10:19 AM

Probably will. VIS looks healthy again. Radar still, well... Sally.

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) The fact that it's moving again (albeit slowly) plus the interaction with land might help tighten it up, right? (edited)

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 10:20 AM

That and pressure fall. (edited)

3

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 10:28 AM

Does look like it's trying to gin up convection on the south side.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 15-Sep-20 10:35 AM

It sort of looks like that maybe it has a failed EWRC

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 10:45 AM

the pinks are back on IR. its trying again really hard. but the eye is pretty ragged

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 10:45 AM

It looks to be intensifying and building it’s structure again. Pressure is dropping and bands seem to be wrapping around the back half now. Probably because it started moving again and took a north turn (negating some shear and stopping upwelling.

Now that it’s moving again and moving more north it should have an easier time now, Royce.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 10:47 AM

Also you actually have stronger convective activity in the SW portion of the eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 10:47 AM

It probably won’t have a solid eyewall ring at landfall but those mid bands are starting to wrap.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 10:47 AM

PWET shows that low level moisture has fully insulated the SW side of the storm. this should allow it to intensify w/o that dry air being an issue

both RIPA and SHIPS refuse to remove RI from their odds tables. still 10-15% chance, which is decent. ADT is now higher than the estimated wind, which means we'll likely see winds come up within the next few hours

10-20 kts of RI is still possible before landfall, so dont count her out

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 10:50 AM

I'll look forward to another 11:30 special Advisory.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 10:51 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/mpswtcke/2020al19_mpswtcke_202009151200.gif

wind like a cat 1, but power like a cat 2. yesterday she was in beast-mode

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 10:54 AM

I don’t think she will do a crazy RI at this point, but can easily see a steady re-intensification to Cat 2 wind speeds.

Lightning appearing more on the slightly more upshear side, we all know what that means.

Anyways I said yesterday Sally will take one of two landfall routes, a smaller more compact Cat 3 eyewall, or a larger Cat 2 eyewall. Sally seems to be taking the latter route and steadily intensifying back to C2, which is arguably the worse case scenario since a larger hurricane (albeit weaker) wind field will increase flooding hazard with higher surge and river backflow. (edited)

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:02 AM

yup, and the models seem to think a large eye /w an pressure near 970. moving N then NNE. mobile bay is going to get smashed.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 11:04 AM

The western eye hot tower has a special marine warning on it.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:04 AM

KMIS, well west of KVOA /w 80kt gusts

the wind field is expanding as the eye expands. expect a pressure drop soon, i would...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 11:05 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:06 AM

Most symmetric it’s looked in its max wind band

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 11:07 AM

Look at those 55 dBZs, that hot tower with the SMW isn’t screwing off.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:07 AM

Used to have a large broad area of max winds

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:07 AM

KMIS is on the NW quad /w hurricane force, KVOA is on the NE quad /w hurricane force. there is a deep water measuring station right in the middle of the eye. water flow is from the south, allowing it to bring in deep warm water from the de soto valley

the underwater geography of this area has really prevented any upwelling, which is amazing and unlucky

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:08 AM

Buoy 42040 would literally be in the eye right now but it got de-anchored from the strong winds so floating adrift now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:09 AM

Station 42874 - Deepwater Asgard water temps actually got UP to 85F overnight

100 feet deep and zero sign of upwelling

bouys just off the mobile coast /w 16 foot wave heights. for almost 24 hours. that erosion is going to be brutal

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 11:19 AM

Yeah Sally is fighting shear not UW.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:35 AM

So that tower slash meso vorticy was pretty amazing. The lightning too. She might have much higher winds in those mesos we just can't see them in real time at the surface. Will be interesting to see if those keep up as she comes ashore

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 11:43 AM

Looks like she’s tightening up in the core again. Eye back under 10 miles.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 15-Sep-20 11:45 AM

https://twitter.com/WeatherLiveTV/status/1305895066670714883

Ben McMillan (@WeatherLiveTV)

The power of storm surge is incredible in Mobile Bay, Alabama. #Sally #ALwx https://t.co/m1RriZQdRm

beard (fort worth) 15-Sep-20 12:04 PM

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN). @Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL). You lose lol (edited)

3

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 12:10 PM

We won yesterday, lol!

I had Cat 2 any time during Sally.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 12:11 PM

Remember, the bet is that it would reach Cat 2 at some point, not landfall as one.

Also it might be reintensifying, so there’s that.

beard (fort worth) 15-Sep-20 12:15 PM

She won't regain strength. Look at the boundary to her north lol

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 12:15 PM

Ehhhhh....still can't close off an eyewall.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 12:15 PM

I won. Don't worry about paying though.

Mets shouldn't collect from noobs.

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 12:20 PM

Is falling pressure from dropsondes a lie, Beard?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 12:20 PM

KVOA back up to hurricane force winds again. now from the SE

983 at 14kts. so maybe 981 estimated?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 12:22 PM

So Royce, how does windspeed play into sonde pressure estimates?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 12:24 PM

there is a scale, based on what the wind is at teh surface that you reduce the pressure based on that scale

rough guess on how close it was to the real center

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 12:29 PM

Ah I see, makes sense given how gasses work.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 12:36 PM

so 983 at 0 = dead center, 983 at 14 kts = whoops, maybe 981? 983 at 50kts = oh jesus we goofed

beard (fort worth) 15-Sep-20 12:37 PM

Noob lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 12:38 PM

the cyclic hot towers would normally tell me she's about to RI. but she's so close to the coast and the eye is so ragged i dont think she can (edited)

shear isn't that bad right now. she's in a neutral 20kts or so. and if she starts to move /w the shear she might get a little boost.

its baaaaack: KVOA O 1620 29.23 -87.78 23 70 120 69.0 82.0

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 12:42 PM

Gas physics are a lie, Beard?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 12:42 PM

i think he was refering to the bet

69kts sustained, 82kt gusts at KVOA again. center is roughly 23nm SW of the platform (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 12:45 PM

I agree RI isn't likely, but steady re-intensification I can see.

Unless it somehow develops another pinhole eyewall in the next few hours, but that is a real off-chance.

beard (fort worth) 15-Sep-20 12:50 PM

She will continue to die.

Meanwhile captian obvious is on scene

5

Jason Harris (Detroit, Mi.) 15-Sep-20 12:57 PM

Lmao I saw that. Like wtf dude no shit

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:09 PM

Sally really likes doughnuts

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 01:10 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/754047876455465040/755475197448028306/recon_NOAA3-1119A-SALLY_dropsonde11_20200915-1638.png

NE eyewall dropsonde.

982 mb dropsonde too

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 01:14 PM

Give Sally credit for effort, lol!

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:16 PM

She's looking to inch her way back up to Cat 2. Definitely not gonna RI at this point, but a steady intensification seems to be in progress.

3

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 01:19 PM

90 kt winds just off the surface in the NE eyewall. Now, just gotta close the damn thing off.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:22 PM

That is still a mile and a half above the surface, gonna take time to work down.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 01:23 PM

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1305917811135516672?s=20

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

STORM SURGE flooding in Gulf Shores, AL with winds ramping up. Possible direct hit ahead from #HurricaneSally @RadarOmega_WX #sally https://t.co/jh5JJA5ITI

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 15-Sep-20 01:24 PM

Mom's apartment is like 15 minutes from Gulf Shores in Foley, going to be a rough go with wind and flooding even that far inland

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:31 PM

This is quite an improvement from the eye, it’s still ragged but it actually looks more symmetrical now. (edited)

Oh yeah, also just noticed that shearward hot tower.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 01:32 PM

Best presentation in 15+ hours.

5

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:35 PM

I'll say. I did mention yesterday Sally making another run for intensification once she began her north movement negating some of the shear and also moving into a less upwelling-prone environment. Her intensification episode yesterday had more to owe to the fact she unexpectedly had a small eyewall for a brief period, what we are seeing now is more on track with the original forecast. (edited)

3

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 15-Sep-20 01:44 PM

Despite the problems it's been having it's looked awesome on satellite for quite a while now. Hopefully it does stay relatively mild because that's an extremely surge prone area

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:44 PM

34-33 kt sustained with 44-47 kt gusts at Fort Morgan/Dauphin island.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 01:45 PM

Winds down to 80

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:47 PM

I don't buy it.

There is probably 85+ in there somewhere.

Likely in those eastern hot towers.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 01:50 PM

you can see the meso-vorts in the wall now on radar. i would be you've got some near cat 2 winds in there

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 01:51 PM

At least near-85kt velocity bins in the NE quadrant

Around 7-8KFT AGL

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:53 PM

I should have specified I meant mph at the surface somewhere.

But yeah those 85 knot winds under 10k feet are concerning.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 01:54 PM

Flights measured what they measured. Radar and satellite are improving though.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 01:55 PM

Those hot towers are easy to miss and flights are on a set path and schedule, not blaming anyone but wouldn't be surprised if there is a greater maxima in there somewhere.

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 02:09 PM

Latest recon pass shows Sally took a big leap to the NNE

See if another pass shows this again or not

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 02:11 PM

Well, it looks like it's getting close to closing

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 02:14 PM

Maybe @Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) can confirm this, but to me, it looks like the mesovorts are trying to tighten up the eyewall? (edited)

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 15-Sep-20 02:16 PM

It did for a while. I'm still wait and see. Sally is definitely trying.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 02:17 PM

Recent couple of scans also show bands starting to form on the southern half. Makes sense, since that is the pattern northbound storms in that region typically follow.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 02:19 PM

F. Eye Character: Spiral Band G. Eye Shape: Not Available

VDM reports eye is a spiral band now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 02:20 PM

so, 3-4 foot surge already from gulfport to the PH. through 2-4?? tide cycles. thats alot of time for water to be on land.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 02:21 PM

52 knot winds sustained right off the coast.

Also latest recon pass declares pressure has fallen yet again to 981 mb.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 02:23 PM

ADT says she's getting stronger: CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 971.8mb/ 77.0kt

large gap between recon and ADT usually means winds haven't caught up to convection

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 02:24 PM

She's got 12 or more hours over water, plenty of time for it to catch up.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 02:25 PM

dont know if she will, she's 'spinning out' and not spinning in

winds continue to blob outward, huge field. static surge now just sitting on land

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 02:37 PM

17 ft waves 66nm from the center. enjoy 20+ hours of 17 ft waves

that bouy is only 15nm from the coast. those barriers are going to just be getting THRASHED

water temps dropped a whole 1 degree F after 24 hours of thrashing at that bouy

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 02:39 PM

The 52 kt sonde just off the coastline speaks for itself.

Also recon is showing nearly constant 35 kt+ SFMRs throughout this entire flight path up the eastern side.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 02:46 PM

a little wabble east? is she aiming toward pensacola instead of mobile?

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 02:50 PM

Sally's radar presentation looks like a stable Cat 1-2, measurements are Cat 1 but Sat is indicative of intensification. I still wouldn't write off a slow crawl but upwards towards Cat 2.

It all depends if she wants to keep getting fat or not.

Arguably a slimmer but stronger eye is preferable, Sally remaining a low-mid Cat 1 and expanding her hurricane windfield is worst case scenario for a system like Sally, it would cause river backup, higher surge, and power outages over a much wider area and much more damage overall. (edited)

It already is, in fact.

It's part of the reason I tell people to not get so hung up on Category, a fast moving pinhole Cat 4 eyewall hitting an uninhabited marsh is not going to fuck shit up nearly as much as a slow moving fat Cat 1 windfield that hits several towns and cities at once with a larger fetch over water. (edited)

4

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 03:09 PM

Looks like she's trying to pop an eye on IR

Latest pass holds at 981, unfortunately the sonde in the eyewall malfunctioned. (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 03:14 PM

Think you meant the NW

Didn't even get close to the surface

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 03:15 PM

77 kt SFMR but it's flagged.

Should be noted the eye sonde data is an hour old, recent MSLP EXTRP pass shows 977 mb

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 03:17 PM

WV looks like an eye is warming out

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 03:18 PM

Yeah looks like it might pop an eye soon

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 15-Sep-20 03:19 PM

Wellp apparently one of my friends is on an oil rig south of Mobile lol. So hes getting pretty whipped by Sally rn

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 03:20 PM

Is he on KVOA?

They’ve been getting hurricane force winds for 30 hours now (edited)

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 15-Sep-20 03:21 PM

Asking rn

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 03:25 PM

Eye see you.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 03:40 PM

Anybody want to pick a landfall point? I'll go with Fort Morgan, AL.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 03:41 PM

I'd say just ESE of Dauphin Island, AL

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 03:42 PM

we're up to 3 hot towers rotating around the center now. it's starting the process to form the eye....

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 15-Sep-20 03:45 PM

I am pretty sure you said that at least once yesterday...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 03:46 PM

Yesterday we had rounds of double hot towers, now it's triple

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 04:07 PM

Attempt #56 of trying to close off an eyewall.

5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 04:09 PM

yeah, in thermodynamics, the more meso-cyclones that are able to stabilize around the center of the vortex, the more likely it is to form an eye

1 then 2 then 3, then around 6 it just pops

usually we dont get to see it happen in such a close environment to a radar site, so this is actually quite interesting

she's basically hugging the coast, and still making pink IR tops is just crazy for a cat 1. this is something that michael should be doing. Laura wasn't even that cold.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 04:17 PM

18:55z eye sonde broke (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 04:18 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/dgtldvor/2020al19_dgtldvor_202009151800.gif

dvoark is really loving this

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 04:19 PM

981 mb at 40 knots

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 04:20 PM

Looks like they missed the center by quite a ways

Honestly it looks like this eye attempt might actually be successful (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 15-Sep-20 04:26 PM

Dropsondes today be like: imma head out

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 04:27 PM

Wonder if that last sonde was in the left eyewall. Kinda looks that way.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 04:29 PM

It was, which means the pressure is probably sub 980 in the center

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 04:30 PM

Another eye drop

980 mb at 17 knots

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 04:30 PM

That would suggest ~978mb

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 04:31 PM

New VDM showing an open eye to the south

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 04:36 PM

mid-level eye feature is becoming more apparent on visible

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 04:36 PM

its happening

2

IF this works out a real eye finally, like the models suggested, (HWRF,HMON), it could make it to sub-970 before landfall

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 04:47 PM

Still at 80 as of 5 pm advisory

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 04:48 PM

KVOA O 2000 29.23 -87.78 23 134 200 67.0 81.0 out favorite platform now has SSW winds at 67kts

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 04:48 PM

Yes, but at 979.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 04:50 PM

recon pressure showed 975 but they can't get a dropsonde to confirm, they are crapping out like 30 of them

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 04:51 PM

What is going on with the sondes today?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 04:51 PM

freaky storm /w no solid eyewall or eye, gotta drop all over

dropsonde difficulty mode: nightmare sally

plus their flights have been getting hammered by turbulence. those are insane hot towers for such a lame cat 1. they will be getting bounced up and down a lot

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 05:00 PM

mmmm those towers are ripping aroudn the north side like paul walker around a corner and into a palm tree

5

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 05:01 PM

Can we don't

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 05:02 PM

i like how the entire panhandle of florida just became a banana there

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 05:03 PM

Pretty much

Hope no truck drivers wanting to go up I-85 lol

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 05:13 PM

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305974474584608775?s=20

Jack Sillin (@JackSillin)

#Sally making yet another attempt at intensification of its inner core this evening. Note the decreased precipitation in the eye which indicates increased subsistence (sinking motion), a sign of a stronger circulation. Regardless, rain & surge still by far biggest threats! ...

Attempt #57 for a closed eyewall

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 05:15 PM

"The Little Eye that Could" (n't)

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 05:17 PM

Though this time it is looking more successful

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 05:18 PM

https://tenor.com/view/south-park-its-gone-gif-4104229

And it's gone

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 15-Sep-20 05:20 PM

When these 2 bands get onshore expect the Tornado threat to go up with them

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 05:25 PM

Dauphin Island with a gust to 72 mph

Fort Morgan with a gust to 75 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 05:54 PM

KVOA with a 93 knot (108mph) wind gust

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 05:58 PM

4

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 05:58 PM

Closed but ragged

But still, closed.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 15-Sep-20 06:08 PM

Chill, Sally

Holly Pajak (London, Ontario) 15-Sep-20 06:29 PM

https://www.emeraldviewresorts.com/beach-cam/

beach cam at a resort in Panama City

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 06:41 PM

she's trying again...

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 06:42 PM

KOVA sustained at 80 knots

Gust 90 knots

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 15-Sep-20 06:45 PM

Has definitely restrengthened a bit then

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 06:45 PM

Not even the strongest part of the eyewall

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 06:46 PM

100-105 mph winds aloft just south of Gulf Shores.

4

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 06:46 PM

How high?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 06:47 PM

Looks like 2-3k ft.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 06:47 PM

That's close enough to the surface to cause concern.

Probably mixing down as gusts already, if it keeps improving it could become sustained.

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 15-Sep-20 06:48 PM

How long until we get a next recon fix?

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 06:49 PM

Those 100-105 mph bins in the velocities are not widespread. Generally 85-100 mph winds at that height. Supports 80 mph storm. Could certainly see gusts 100+.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 06:51 PM

True, but we got an 80 knot/92 mph reading from KOVA

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 06:56 PM

KVOA is elevated IIRC.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 07:06 PM

Not by a dramatic amount.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 07:22 PM

Anyways recon is almost there and we will have a better idea soon

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 07:30 PM

Recon just entered Sally and we already have 35+ kt SFMRs

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 07:37 PM

~70kt SFMR in the SW quadrant of Sally now

FL winds at hurricane force as well

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 07:37 PM

Microwave has completed the eyewall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 07:42 PM

Holy crap, not even close to the center yet.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 07:45 PM

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 15-Sep-20 07:45 PM

definitely not going to hit my peak 112 tonight

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 07:45 PM

SFMR's look 75kt, Recon got 972, 5-6 give or take, definitely strengthening a bit

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 07:46 PM

That is the weaker side too.

Seems hurricane-force winds have completely wrapped. It is Big Chungus Cat 1

Possibly 2

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 07:47 PM

Forecast rain totals here 9-10 inches, dread

Jacob H (North AL Skywarn) 15-Sep-20 07:48 PM

Wow... winds are whipping and this thing isn't going anywhere anytime soon..

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) yea, current rainfall totals already approaching 4-6 in

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 07:54 PM

Gonna be a long night for them

Worst thing this thing can do is try an eyewall contraction and have induced land friction and dinural cycles try to Strengthen it right up to landfall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 07:56 PM

976 dropsonde btw.

This is a strengthening system for sure.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 08:01 PM

okay....

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 08:03 PM

More malfunctions.

Recon having loads of problems today

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 08:09 PM

i see blue on IR. i think we got ourselves a real eye

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.6 / 971.8mb/ 79.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.6 4.6 5.7

some very big chungus raw T

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 08:14 PM

Too bad recon malfunctioned, I'd like to see what the NE maxima is.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 08:16 PM

offshore wave heights up to 18ft

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 15-Sep-20 08:26 PM

KOVA sustained at 76 knots.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 15-Sep-20 08:29 PM

How fast (slow) is Sally moving now?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 15-Sep-20 08:34 PM

Transformers blowing in Golf Shores

Sparks and more transformers

https://twitter.com/bjheels/status/1306027945115422723

Bill Jones (@bjheels)

@susanaronRigsbyOSC: Just witnessed this large boat capsize and sink in front of my very eyes in the Dauphin Island harbor in Alabama. #Sally #ALwx @NHC_Atlantic @NWSMobile

https://twitter.com/joejanecek/status/1306026189564399616

joe janecek (@joejanecek)

Gulf Coast people are weird, m'kay? @CBSNews @SkylerHenry #Sally

Texas storm chasers talking about hoping a Mcdonalds stays open while transformers are going off, and sparks are flying in the air

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 15-Sep-20 08:48 PM

@Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) Last I saw, it was moving at 2mph

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 15-Sep-20 08:54 PM

https://www.emeraldviewresorts.com/beach-cam/

Somebody is swimming in that pool

3 people in the pool during a Hurricane.

@Holly Pajak (London, Ontario)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 15-Sep-20 09:04 PM

I was just wondering about the eye, watching it here on GREarth

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 09:05 PM

Hourly update increases winds to 85 mph

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 15-Sep-20 09:05 PM

not surprised

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 15-Sep-20 09:05 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 15-Sep-20 09:06 PM

I keep saying that New Orleans got away with one here

especially with Sally taking the right hand turn when it did

Holly Pajak (London, Ontario) 15-Sep-20 09:34 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 09:45 PM

Winds ramping up on KVOA again

75 knots sustained with gusts to 90 knots

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 15-Sep-20 10:07 PM

969.7mb extrapolated min. pressure from recon center fix

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 10:13 PM

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/LRKZVlDiRCb0Or22Kbs_96IPbrAYd9lhW9Bb5V0xJUo/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/EiAIBvbXgAIzKbv.png%3Alarge

99 knots above the surface not by much

Note the sonde did not reach the surface

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 10:24 PM

VDM also with eye open to SE

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 15-Sep-20 10:42 PM

https://twitter.com/myescambia/status/1306051023769948161?s=20

My Escambia (@myescambia)

A significant water main break has occurred on Pensacola Beach. Crews are unable to respond due to current storm conditions. ECUA will have to shut off the water system at approx. 11:00 pm tonight. Residents who are still on Pensacola Beach are urged to store water if possib...

5

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 15-Sep-20 10:42 PM

well

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 15-Sep-20 10:43 PM

That sucks. One hours notice to fill your bathtub

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 15-Sep-20 11:02 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:07 PM

Getting another recon pass soon

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 15-Sep-20 11:08 PM

Sally a cat 2?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:08 PM

85 mph cat. 1

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 15-Sep-20 11:08 PM

I just saw at the top, *DOH**

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:08 PM

Only 10 knots more for cat. 2 though

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 15-Sep-20 11:08 PM

new advisory saying 85

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:08 PM

Weather weenies are saying its a cat 2

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 15-Sep-20 11:17 PM

It has cat 2 winds at around 5k feet but it's probably not that at the surface

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 15-Sep-20 11:18 PM

REEEEEEEE, I deserve a CAT 2

lol

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:24 PM

93 knots Flight level

74 knots SFMR

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:41 PM

971 mb dropsonde

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 15-Sep-20 11:41 PM

https://twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1306074898356297733?s=21

NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC)

#WPC_MD 0760 affecting Gulf Coast from Mobile Bay, AL to Apalachee Bay, FL, #flwx #alwx, https://t.co/qMCQUIIy3Y

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:42 PM

https://twitter.com/nwsmobile/status/1306073787134140416?s=21

NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile)

1030pm - Rainfall Totals OVER 16 INCHES so far and it is still absolutely pouring along the coast this evening. Up to 16.27" near NAS Pensacola right now. #flwx #Sally https://t.co/TvUWC4wluz

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:43 PM

Peak 97kt FL, 82kt SFMR in the NW quad (edited)

This might be a cat. 2 again

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:44 PM

idk that would be interesting with the forecast set at 90

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:49 PM

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.5 / 952.5mb/102.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.5 5.9 5.9

ADT CAT3 anyone?

1

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 15-Sep-20 11:50 PM

We'll see at the 12 PM EST advisory

Idk about Cat 3 lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:50 PM

adt is a leading indicator not a trailing, so keep that in mind

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:51 PM

Buoy 42012 is still at a warm 83.1 degrees for SST

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:51 PM

satcon, the more conservative sat estimate, is at 85kts

intense towers still blowing up near the eye, this could easily hit cat 3 by landfall

just waiting for the pressure to match the clouds

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:54 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/754047876455465040/755637478622232586/recon_AF305-1219A-SALLY_dropsonde16_20200916-0336.png

Numerous 100 kt readings not far above the surface

Think it only weakened so much at the end because it rotated to a weaker quad

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:56 PM

That Northwest eyewall is no joke

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:57 PM

that 109 should mix down to about 94kts in a fully matured eyewall

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:57 PM

Every time I go to sleep a hurricane seems to rapidly intensity

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 15-Sep-20 11:57 PM

its noctural max, with infinite OHC

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 15-Sep-20 11:57 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/755638441777168414/image0-21.jpg Eye is closed

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:58 PM

That is not... good

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:58 PM

I thought it was closed for a few hours

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 15-Sep-20 11:58 PM

This thing has been an absolute rollercoaster

1

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:59 PM

It cant make up its mind

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 15-Sep-20 11:59 PM

First it unexpectedly rocketed to cat 2 with that small eye, then it started crapping the bed with a pretty bad center, now it's getting it's crap together just off of land

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:59 PM

The original nhc forecast was on point oddly enough going back a couple days

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 15-Sep-20 11:59 PM

This is the first recon confirmed closed

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 15-Sep-20 11:59 PM

Ohhh ok recon confirmation

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:00 AM

90 MPH

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:00 AM

(Points to frontal boundary)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:00 AM

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TCUAT4&e=202009160400

IEM :: TCU from NWS AT4

TCU issued by NWS AT4 at 16 Sep 2020 04:00 UTC

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 16-Sep-20 12:03 AM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/755639488834699344/unknown.png

Yikes

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Sep-20 12:09 AM

really blowing up at the 11th hour

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:09 AM

12 hours until landfall, no sign of weakening, 972mb....she make it to what...957?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:09 AM

Buoy 42012 with sustained winds of 72 mph

Cranking up near the surface obs

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:10 AM

957? That wont tell the story ill say that much

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:12 AM

several models hwrf, hmon, euro, all had sub-960 landfalls in runs 2 days ago

so its within the realm of posibility, OHC isn't stopping it

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 12:14 AM

The fact this is moving so slow is literally letting it pull a Harvey

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:14 AM

I dont know how much upwelling is impacting it like it is crawling

My goodness

Harvey, Florence, Imelda, (Sally?)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:16 AM

According to buoy 42012 there is minimal upwelling so far

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:16 AM

we did some research yesterday on upwelling in shallow ocean shelfs

basically there is little to NO upwelling, because the integrated shelf temperature is actually higher than in deep water

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:17 AM

Also this is the Gulf we are talking about which is bath water normally

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:17 AM

so while it might lose 1-2 F, it won't lose 5-6F like in deep water stalls

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 12:18 AM

This is coming up in places like every single storm, the southern eyewall isn't substantially weaker because it's not showing higher velocities on Radarscope, it's just because it's further away and people still don't get that

People think the costal radars are magic and can get both sides of the eyewall this far out

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:18 AM

Yeah unfortunately been seeing a lot of things the past couple hours

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 16-Sep-20 12:20 AM

We thinking KMOB is gonna stay online now through the next 24 hours?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:22 AM

jesus that eyewall looks amazing. its nice and round, with a solid meso-vort ont he east side just throwing shade like a MF

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 12:22 AM

I feel bad for the NHC again

They've had to bounce the forecast up and down like 4 times

And now it's probably gonna end up over again

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:24 AM

anyone else notice the black ring of death is starting to fill in?

1

dvorak is going bonnkers with this storm, the black ring of death = cat 3

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.8 / 946.1mb/109.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.8 5.9 5.9

968 last pass

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:28 AM

getting closer

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:28 AM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-1219A-SALLY_dropsonde13_20200916-0150.png

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:29 AM

93 mph gust at buoy 42012. Still sustained at 72 mph

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:29 AM

969 /w 99kts

its a cat 3 boys

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:29 AM

That one didn’t reach the surface

987 mb is the estimated surface for that drop

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:30 AM

jesus, they are still losing drops again today?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:32 AM

102 knot FL winds

5 readings of at least 98 knot FL

SFMR still around 80ish knots (edited)

These are all higher recon readings than we had when she was a cat. 2

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:35 AM

Explain how a storm can go from a cat 1 to a cat 3 with in a few hours.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:35 AM

we measure the storm based on wind velocity, a flawed system (edited)

the storm has been a cat 2 / borderline cat 3 based on IKE for a while now

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:36 AM

It's been a cat 1 according to NWS for awhile.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:37 AM

yup, and they use wind velocity aka the saffir simpson scale. which is old and outdated

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:37 AM

Which is offical.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:37 AM

which is the problem

let me introduce you to IKE, a different way of thinking about hurricanes.

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:38 AM

You see 1 thing that says it's a cat 3 in one area. Doesn't make it a cat 3 in the entire storm.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 12:38 AM

That is where I need to disagree, the SS scale is still good for determining wind impacts.

It can be thought of as an extension of the Beaufort scale.

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:39 AM

That's like saying a 120mph wind gust means the storm is a 120mph storm. Instead of rating it on what it's constantly doing.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:39 AM

beau is like ships navy or military right?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

To be fair if they get a gust on drops they rate it as such.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

And to be fair, the Beaufort scale itself is flawed and old, but going off of it was the general idea when the SS scale was made.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

a different way of thinking about storms, the IKE scale

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

I was in ike.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

not the cane

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:40 AM

Oh lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:41 AM

it was inspired by IKE

because he did way more damage than his category indicated

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:41 AM

I have no idea on IKE. Offically it's cat1 meow.

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:42 AM

Most of ikes damage was flood related. Except on galveston island. I had flash backs of that crap during laura.

Ok the meow threw me off.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:42 AM

of i you are feeling lazy: RAMMB has an automated KE system https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al19/mpswtcke/2020al19_mpswtcke_202009160300.gif

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 12:43 AM

To be fair, the Saffir Simpson scale is now called the Saffir Simpson wind scale and mentions of surge were dropped from it years ago.

1

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:43 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1306090298318049280

NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile)

1135pm - Buoy 42012 is now gusting to 94 mph with #Sally.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:43 AM

thats like 20 miles off the coast, gonna be a rough night

beard (fort worth) 16-Sep-20 12:49 AM

Powers flashing in orange beach and data just went to crap.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:49 AM

The East eyewall is vicious. -123 mph inbound at 4600 ft

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:51 AM

gulf shores to pensaco getting trashed tonight. for like 12 hours.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 12:52 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:53 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306089035551703041

Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits)

Recon continuing to find higher winds, with 117 mph flight-level winds just measured in the eastern eyewall. #Sally is on the cusp of Cat 2 intensity

Likes

184

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:53 AM

Sustained 10 meter winds of 80 mph. 97 mph wind gust at 42012 (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 12:55 AM

go to the mobile radar, and look at ZDR. very intense updrafts along the SE side of the eye in the meso-vortex area. updrafts similar to supercells

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:55 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:55 AM

Sally officially a cat. 2

2

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:56 AM

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TCUAT4&e=202009160500

IEM :: TCU from NWS AT4

TCU issued by NWS AT4 at 16 Sep 2020 05:00 UTC

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:56 AM

11 NM to coastline (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 12:58 AM

I think it’s a little further than that

Unless you mean the eyewall

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:59 AM

Man

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:59 AM

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) nop on gr2 I've got that

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:59 AM

If theres good news, it didnt continue to strengthen from 100 yesterday I guess (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 12:59 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306093404623900672

Noah Brauer (@NOAABrauer)

Latest RHIs of Z and Zdr (azimuth angle of 147°) showing echo tops 9-10 km in some of the deeper convection, with a well-defined bright band located around 4.5 km, with some upward displacement of the melting layer in the convection @OU_SRs @ousom @NWSMobile

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:00 AM

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT. I will have to see what they do at the 1:00 advisory

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 01:01 AM

Recon about to do a NE to SW pass

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:02 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:06 AM

105 mph gust at buoy 42012 (edited)

Sustained 10 meter winds at 84 mph

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:07 AM

https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/1306096522048790528

SevereStudios (@severestudios)

Hurricane #Sally now Cat 2 again 100mph

?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:08 AM

23 ft waves at 42012. those are gonna look great on the beach, who's got a webcam?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:09 AM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1306097130847649794/photo/1

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

#Sally has strengthened into a category 2 hurricane on the Midnight CDT update with 100-mph winds. More: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:10 AM

Cox is working on the internet in my neighborhood. Fine time to do it with a Hurricane making landfall.

4

3

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:10 AM

I thought this storm was gonna weaken up until landfall until this happened

ik what you mean, Cox always seems to go out at the worst of times

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 01:11 AM

Spectrum does that to me too occasionally

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:11 AM

Gulf Shores is just starting to feel eyewall

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:12 AM

reed appears to be in gulf shores taking a solid hit, looks brutal

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:12 AM

https://twitter.com/bclemms/status/1306095490153484290

WXChasing (Brandon Clement) (@bclemms)

#HurricaneSally is bringing it. https://t.co/P4VHVUgAOx

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:13 AM

ik what you mean, Cox always seems to go out at the worst of times

@Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) Cox is overpriced and has brutal service. I wish there was a more reputable internet provider down here.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:14 AM

we have cox in omaha here, best service you can get. a little pricy. kinda sad when everyone complains about the best service by speed / customer satisfaction. just goes to show how terrible all the others are

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:14 AM

Yeah, my internet speeds aren't that great it's sometimes difficult with a 10 Mbps upload

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:15 AM

Chris Jackson is there in GS.. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306098999104081920

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:16 AM

hope he's ready to enjoy 6-12 hours at hurricane force sustained

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:16 AM

Also Cox kinda has a monopoly here so we do not have much of a choice Landfall what, late tomorrow morning, early afternoon , something like that

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:17 AM

7am rough guess

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:18 AM

Live Feeds streaming. https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/jokko.williams.html and https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:18 AM

I saw on the coast in the 12H slot on the Discussion so I kinda figured

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 16-Sep-20 01:18 AM

Jeez I have 100mbps with Cox in OKC, and there are three tiers above me

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 16-Sep-20 01:18 AM

https://www.facebook.com/HailTrace/videos/748495979334756

Here is Hail Trace's livefeed

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:18 AM

thank you

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:22 AM

965.3 mb extrap

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 01:22 AM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:24 AM

Cat 4 winds about 4600 feet up. Pensacola is going to get raked:

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:24 AM

i told yall 957. its gonna happen. sticking with my HWRF from 2 days ago

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:24 AM

Nah cat 2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:27 AM

110 mph gust at buoy 42012

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:27 AM

oh goodness

I wasn't anticipating it taking a shot at RI

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:28 AM

Down 18 mb from earlier this afternoon

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:29 AM

So I would imagine we are now seeing the response of the pressure dropping rapidly

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:32 AM

Yep. Winds finally caught up.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:32 AM

965.3?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:32 AM

Holy moly

These are sondes you see with intense hurricanes

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:34 AM

Was that in the eye or eyewall?

If that’s the eyewall...it’s a 3, almost a 4.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:35 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:36 AM

Eyewall Matthew. Eye wouldn’t be 112 knots wind in it lol

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:36 AM

Eyewall Matthew. Eye wouldn’t be 112 knots wind in it lol

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) lol derp moment for me. I know better.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:36 AM

@TropicalTidbits: The buoy south of Orange Beach, AL is in the eyewall of Hurricane #Sally, measuring a sustained wind of 87 mph with gusts to 109 mph.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:37 AM

Nice one Sally... pulling a fast one on us AGAIN

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:38 AM

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1306103571730124800

Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone)

Beach Boulevard getting pounded. #Hurricane #SALLY in Gulf Shores #Alabama https://t.co/LtG0yvNjYD

Likes

102

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:38 AM

bouy 42012 is about 20 mn west of that dropsonde. it appears that drop did make it to the surface. maybe caught a meso-vort? (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 01:38 AM

Already over a FOOT of rain along the coast according to radar

Looks like the Buoy is just starting to get into it, so we'll see at the next update

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:39 AM

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306104718192766978

Holy cow you guys watching Hailtrace live feed?

lol, little swirlie there.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:43 AM

Fort Morgan at 80 mph sustained. Gusting to 93 mph (edited)

Eyewall moving ashore the barrier islands

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:43 AM

is there a buoy available?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:44 AM

Hailtrace stream if ya missed it. https://www.facebook.com/HailTrace/videos/748495979334756

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:47 AM

Going to find a buoy and get data

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:47 AM

Buoy 42012 is the one of the hour

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:47 AM

Yeah, it's been picking up the gusts

I saw Mobile tweet the 94 then it picked up a 110

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:49 AM

there appear to be little ridges on the inside of the eyewall. this is a sign of meso-vortex formation, based on what ive read. this allows for much higher winds to occur over small areas than should otherwise b epossible

1

they look like little fish-hooks on the inside of the wall

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:49 AM

Fort Morgan just had a 100 mph gust

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:51 AM

That's awful geez.

1

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:52 AM

Gonna see what the NHC does in the next 8 minutes

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 01:53 AM

well, they had terrifying dropsonde that says its a cat 4. they won't do that. my bet. they will keep at 100mph

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:53 AM

which buoy took the eyewall?

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:53 AM

perhaps they just rule that out

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:53 AM

42012

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 01:54 AM

There was just another node btw

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:54 AM

The buoy has had 2 separate gusts to 110 mph

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:54 AM

I just saw it

wow

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 01:54 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:55 AM

Gott he Sally Whistle going https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1306108863142268928

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:55 AM

105 mph in the new advisory

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 01:56 AM

@ChrisJacksonSC: Welp. There she goes. It was nice having power but all of Orange Beach is officially. Dark. (edited)

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:56 AM

...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT SHORTLY...

4

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:57 AM

I wonder if Sally is going to start to move faster once it hits land. Its really moving slow.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 16-Sep-20 01:57 AM

oh boy special advisory

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 01:57 AM

Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

6

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:57 AM

this could be interesting

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:57 AM

I think they are going to put it at a cat 2

5

sorry it's already at cat 2

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:59 AM

its near peak cat 2 already

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 01:59 AM

I wouldn't be surprised they put it at cat 3

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 01:59 AM

that's kinda the scary thought

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 01:59 AM

Y'ALL READY FOR ANOTHER MAJOR LANDFALL

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

our 3rd or 4th major in the atlantic?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

Did Paulette go major?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

105 mph

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

that's what I don't know

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

It would be 2 if no

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

i don't think so?

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

per TWC

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

another blast of convection on the north side, clouds looking good, eye drying to recover on IR

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:00 AM

Laura was our first major. Sally the 2nd

Well potentially 2nd

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 02:02 AM

Teddy looks like a lock for major as well

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:02 AM

I think we're gonna hear all the people complaining about ACE stop after this one

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 02:02 AM

We're already at 70 ACE

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:03 AM

fort morgan sustained at 70kts. for several minutes

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:03 AM

ok, what is ACE again?

Never mind I remember

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:04 AM

FFE

https://twitter.com/nwsmobile/status/1306111510540816385?s=21

NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile)

Flash Flood Emergency including Pensacola FL, Bellview FL, Brent FL until 7:00 AM CDT

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 02:04 AM

Of course this happens on the 16th anniversary of Ivan. https://twitter.com/christianbwx/status/1306101322299604993?s=19

Christian Bridges (@christianbwx)

Today is the EXACT 16 year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan.... which made landfall in.... gulf shores Alabama! #SALLY #alwx

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:04 AM

I remember Ivan.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:05 AM

ivan was a pile of garbage compared to sally.

limped onshore /w 120mph. the eye was nasty and ragged. not a sexy sudden RI storm like sally

anyone got the speed on the inbound base velocities? the bins are off the chart on mine, 115kt+, little black dots invading the blue

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 16-Sep-20 02:12 AM

Went on to destroy western PA and killed one of my brother FP`s.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:13 AM

fresh water flooding is no joke. this storm is about to show that again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:14 AM

965.6 mb extrap this pass. About the same as the last

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:17 AM

probably seeing winds around 100 mph

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:19 AM

Mobile just had a gust to 70 mph

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:20 AM

Humpress having trouble. He's out driving keeps saying I can't see. https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress.html

John Humphress johnhumphress is chasing an impressive storm live on...

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 02:20 AM

2

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 16-Sep-20 02:21 AM

Oh my god, that wording is some of the strongest i've seen in a FFW in a long time

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:21 AM

looks like Humphress is with Brett

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:22 AM

no he's not

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:22 AM

Sorry just looked like they were in the same parking deck

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:23 AM

hey guys, we got 20" of rain. we could easily see 20" more. Pretend its harvey and get to high ground

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:23 AM

Well Humpress just turned into a Parking deck.

He's working on his Modem he said.

Panama City Tornado warning.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 02:24 AM

Yeah this is horrible

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:24 AM

This really is a Harvey situation

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 02:24 AM

Like some sort of weird dream

Wtf is up with the constant RI near the Gulf Coast since 2017

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 02:24 AM

Given how long these barrier islands are getting thrashed we may see a reshaped coastline after this, actually we will see a changed coastline (especially in areas more erosion-prone).

Wtf is up with the constant RI near the Gulf Coast since 2017

@Zachary S (Jasper, AL) The Atlantic has always been able to pull off impressive things like that, it just took a 10 year break and people forgot about what the Atlantic was truly capable of until 2017.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:26 AM

985

RI?

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:26 AM

Still no special advisory yet

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:26 AM

Zachary what do you mean RI?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 02:26 AM

rapid intensification

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:26 AM

ah ok

Some would say its Global Warming

brett reporting 993

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:27 AM

no clue on the special advisory, NHC said like 15 minutes

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 02:27 AM

Everyone got used to Gulf storms weakening near landfall (Frances, Ivan, all 2005 besides Wilma) and these going nuts near landfall is incredible

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:27 AM

Eyewall is now open to the south again

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:28 AM

Think it might be a ERC?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:28 AM

its nearly onshore, and the hot towers are still PINK on IR. just nuts

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:28 AM

Sally did wrap completely correct at one time?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:28 AM

Well a few hours ago yes. Glen

Eyewall degraded some now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:29 AM

i think she' might be tightning up a bit. new smaller ring on S side appearing

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:30 AM

About 3300 ft

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:30 AM

Humphress looks to be in the eye wall

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:31 AM

I think he's on ground level? (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:32 AM

NHC said special advisory in 15 and it's been 30 (edited)

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:32 AM

wow looking at his stream

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:32 AM

Wonder what's up

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 02:33 AM

It's a clusterfuck of a storm, the NHC likely had new data come in during that 15 minutes forcing them to revise parts of it.

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:33 AM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 02:33 AM

Those chasers are about to get smacked.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:33 AM

lol true

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:33 AM

Getting crazy here. Can’t see at all on the roads had to retreat back to the hotel. We went out with Brandon Clemente a second ago

Just for a little bit to get a little video

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:34 AM

NHC prolly dealing with new data every few minutes thats keeping them on the edge of their seats

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:34 AM

So here is the question, how can you tell a tornado on radar within a hurricane

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:34 AM

We are about to get railed hard

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:34 AM

Ryan stay safe

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:34 AM

idk QLCS tornadoes in hurricanes are kind of an interesting thing

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:35 AM

someone there is throwing a fit about the 112kt dropsonde probably, which usually is all they need to up the speed. but they want to probably match /w flight level winds before they push it out. but they were usign dropsonde winds for laura....so there's that

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 16-Sep-20 02:35 AM

Oftentimes storm relative velocity is a good tool with locating embedded supercells in hurricane bands, not a surefire way of detecting all of them though

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:36 AM

brett reporting 969

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:37 AM

@Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) Charge that Battery and stay dry if you can. lol! Hang in there! Keep Safe-ish.

1

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:37 AM

Attachment: video0.mp4 (2.34 MB)

3

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:38 AM

wee bit windy and wet.

4

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:38 AM

969 mb seems suspect for where he’s at

Recon dropsonde just got 970 mb at 6 knots

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:39 AM

You think Glen lol

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:40 AM

I've been in there shoes. IT's impossible.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:40 AM

Just reporting what he said

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:41 AM

110 mph peak (edited)

Special advisory out

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:41 AM

not updating on my end :L

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:42 AM

You get cold and very tired. Once your adrenellain wears off. It drains you completely. But it's worth it, survive it and tell the tale.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:42 AM

is 110 knots about 130 mph

nevermind

I read his thing as 110 knots

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:43 AM

Yeah I edited

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:43 AM

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT

btw what does the 19L mean? I know it means the 19th storm but the L?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:46 AM

atLantic

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:46 AM

aH

Southern part of the eye looks really really open

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 02:48 AM

thats due to radar attenuation. look at IR sat and you'll see it's still there

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:49 AM

I took the attenuation in account. Will check IR sat.

AH ok my bad just checked.

but I still go by that it's open

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:55 AM

Surge coming over the dunes at the hotel

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:55 AM

wow @Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) thank you for the updates. I know how hard it is. (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:57 AM

A good thing to note, even if it doesn't hit 115mph this has the surge of a major for sure

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:57 AM

brett reported 995

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 02:58 AM

Brett Adair just said he thinks we’re gonna get 10 feet here

He’s standing next to us

But I’m not seeing it get that high (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 02:58 AM

I think I saw you guys in his stream cam.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:59 AM

Dauphin island at 76 mph sustained

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 02:59 AM

Ryan what is the pressure there?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 03:00 AM

https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1306125540718456832

Brett Adair (@AlaStormTracker)

Pressure rapidly falling with winds shifting out of the SE here in Orange Beach. #HurricaneSally

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 03:01 AM

so the hunters reporting 970?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 03:01 AM

968

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 03:02 AM

Last few radar shots, really show the eye opening

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 03:04 AM

https://twitter.com/ChrisJacksonSC/status/1306124166035394560

☈ Chris Jackson ☈ (@ChrisJacksonSC)

hur·uh·kein” #Sally https://t.co/dfUtvLejgM

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 03:07 AM

Glen said the media couldn't be played

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 03:07 AM

works for me.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 03:07 AM

27 foot waves at 42012

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 03:08 AM

woah now.

Gulf Shores landfall this hour lol?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 03:22 AM

968 mb dropsonde

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 03:24 AM

Panhandle takes a whack again.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 03:37 AM

https://twitter.com/ChrisRoderickWX/status/1306131723806269440

Chris Roderick WX (@ChrisRoderickWX)

Just recorded a gust to 111 mph on Pensacola beach. #FLwx #Sally #ALwx @IreneSans @TTerryWFTV @BrianWFTV

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 03:37 AM

Interesting "tidbit" from our man GDime https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1306133084102946816

Greg Diamond (@gdimeweather)

Doppler radar out of Mobile, AL is currently measuring winds as high as 140 mph at 3,700 feet This translates to roughly 120 mph surface winds And those winds are heading right for Orange Beach, AL

and man, that is just at bay

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 04:12 AM

Fort Morgan at 94 mph sustained and gust to 108 mph

100 mph sustained gusting to 115 at fort Morgan

Ryan Hearne(Tyler,Tx) 16-Sep-20 04:33 AM

Attachment: video0.mp4 (2.73 MB)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 04:44 AM

110 knots FL

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 06:03 AM

Sally makes landfall at 4:45am (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 07:23 AM

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 07:24 AM

Cantore said this is his 104th tropical system. I’m not saying I’m jealous, but I wish I could say that.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 07:28 AM

Jim Cantore reporting like a boss

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 07:29 AM

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 07:45 AM

A bridge is closed in mobile due to a semi on its side. I hope that they had an emergency to be in a bridge.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 16-Sep-20 07:45 AM

There was a pier that sustained major damage

https://twitter.com/msmichelleplatt/status/1306197835742879744?s=21 holy...

Michelle Platt, REALTOR (@MsMichellePlatt)

Massive damage in Orange Beach, AL after Hurricane Sally! #Sally #oba

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 16-Sep-20 08:26 AM

Live, still going: https://www.emeraldviewresorts.com/beach-cam/

I think my 112 mph verified

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 08:42 AM

So the mobile radar went out? Its missing a bunch of rain data. Panhandle radar says 32+ inches in gulf shores

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 08:52 AM

very impressive, might beat there record?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 09:00 AM

the state record in 24 hours is in gulf shores, and its like 32.5". FL is only 23", and i think they beat it

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:01 AM

Keep in mind, above yellow pixels indicate rain totals exceeding 33 inches (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 09:02 AM

yeah FL likely just crushed thier 24 hour record in the last 18 hours with room to go

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:03 AM

Peak pixel rain total was ~38 inches

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 09:03 AM

when we said this could be harvey overnight, we weren't joking

9-12 inches well inland into AL. that won't be fun either

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:12 AM

Welp. Won my bet again. Landfall puts the exclamation point on it! Love making money overnight while I sleep. Much easier than trading the FOREX.

(edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 09:25 AM

today the shrimps come out to play. gonna be a lot of tornadoes im feeling

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:27 AM

It's heading my way. Will be out in it tomorrow. Not by choice. (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 09:29 AM

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1306223434570100741?s=20

Jim Cantore (@JimCantore)

3rd highest Storm Surge on RECORD here in Pensacola, FL. Still hours from high tide. What a mess! Not out of the woods yet. #Sally https://t.co/gs79u4fp4Z

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:32 AM

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) yes you did

@Cameron (Fortson, GA) Ready for it coming your way? I got everything put up. GOing to be a gully washer.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:33 AM

Thanks Glen. How is SC terrain? (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:33 AM

Up here in Upstate it's hilly.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:33 AM

What about central SC?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:34 AM

a little bit hilly or longer hills.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:34 AM

Thanks. Seems reasonable GMaps. Glen let's goto Public Event after 12z NWP. I'm considering inland chasing. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:34 AM

it starts to flatten out south of columbia (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 09:34 AM

Latest model guidance keeps this a weak TS over me, but winds already gusting to 30, Gonna get like 10 inches

I-85 is going to be a washout

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:35 AM

Yes, everythign south of i85. 4-6" sure bet.

I'm south of i85. yeah I'm expecting 4-5" rain.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 09:36 AM

Already getting some rain, winds definitely picking up even with the outer most band

https://twitter.com/rzweather/status/1306207843851415559?s=20

Spinks Megginson (@rzweather)

Sportsmen Marina at Orange Beach, FL has been decimated by Hurricane #Sally... Video by Rob Phillips. @NWSMobile https://t.co/kUavKJS5is

Retweets

157

Likes

185

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:39 AM

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) gonna be a bit dicey. All this rain and were full of trees. Doens't take big wind to push some trees over. GL on the chase. There fast movers.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:40 AM

Thanks. Yeah I have to go through ATL and Augusta. Might need an Ark.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:40 AM

LOL

Just goign through ATL you take your life in your hands on a dry clear blue day. lol

1

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:41 AM

I'll be in Public Event toward Noon though.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:42 AM

I'll be out at noon. I have an appointment already with local Vet to get our animals there shots. Have to do it on Lunch time with the kids.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 09:42 AM

Yeah I'm not driving anywhere, if my power goes out, oh well.

Already got my Chick Fil A fix yesterday lmao

2

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:43 AM

Well I'll be out in it with dog and cat with kids. lol (edited)

2

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 09:43 AM

Yeah, I think wind gusts are gonna be a bit higher than forecasted here, these outer bands already got 30+ mph wind gusts

Butler, AL already having power outages and power lines/trees down

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:44 AM

it's dead calm right now here.

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) I'll be checking up on that channel.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:47 AM

Cool. Pls pet your animals for me. Nobody likes shots. They'll probably sleep through the chase tomorrow. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:48 AM

lol, yeah sure. I think the kids are more worried about it.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 16-Sep-20 09:48 AM

Lol mine the same. Also like storms, but prefer porch chase over going out. (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 09:50 AM

hehehehe

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 09:51 AM

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1306229053930827776

Brad Panovich (@wxbrad)

48 HR Rainfall totals so far from 10"-27" #flwx #alwx

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 16-Sep-20 09:55 AM

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1306229235867156486?s=21

Stu Ostro (@StuOstro)

#Sally #Ivan https://t.co/msBNIxNfU4

16 years to the date of the landfall of Ivan

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:01 AM

So, do we think she went Cat 3?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:02 AM

unless someone has some non-dropsonde wind data to confirm, probably not

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:03 AM

Just checking. Either way, Sally did some serious damage. Hopefully folks are all right.

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 16-Sep-20 10:16 AM

She made a good attempt at a Cat 3 run but I think 105 is correct

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:17 AM

the ominous 130mph dropsonde was likely a meso-vort that ate the dropsonde. in other hurricanes that would have been enough to up the wind rating, but they were being very careful not to make quick responses

2

at that point its a judgetment call by the NHC. in laura they had flight level winds and inbounds that indicated a cat 4. but it wasn't until they got dropsonde data that they pushed the winds up higher officially. in this case the other data doesnt' support 130mph at surface, so the dropsonde likely was eaten by a sharknado, which doesn't justify upping the sustained winds

this does however, beg the question, why don't we have a better method of estimating storm intensity than just 1min sustained? should we go 10 min sustained like japan? should we use IKE? or SDP?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 10:26 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:27 AM

a reminder that the KE from RAMMB is based on ADT, so it can wildly swing

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 10:27 AM

The time intervals are also pretty coarse (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:27 AM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) I will leave that question in the hands of the more academically profecient people. My 2 cents is that the priority shouldn't be getting somehting "exactly and precicely correct" but should be "what will best and most accuratly convey to the general public the severity of the situation" (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:28 AM

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) I agree totally. I work in government and my masters is in the public admin field. translating science to basic english is hard enough as it is

we could probably transition to the RAMMB KE system, or the IKE system for damage, and peopel wouldn't notice. both systems use either cat 0-5, or 0-6 for IKE

2

for instance, katrina makes landfall as a cat 3. but it's IKE rating was a 5.6 (top end damage maker)

2

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:30 AM

0- 6 would get the public's attention for sure. That could be good, letting them know there is a new system

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:30 AM

laura was a high end cat 4, but well before landfall it's IKE rating was near 5.5, almost a katrina at landfall

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:31 AM

I suspect that this season will see some changes, jsut because of how high profile the severity could be

without gettin too into the weeds, how is IKE determined?

I am an engineer, so I want to know how things work,

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 10:32 AM

Warn pls k thanks

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:34 AM

so, max values for sally based on ADT estimates: IKETS(TJ) 70.931 SDP 4.248

surge damage potential of 4.2. roughly a category less than laura

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php\

mind you ADT rated sally as a high end cat 3. not a high end cat 2. so keep that in mind.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:36 AM

ADT?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:37 AM

advanced dvorak technique

using convection size, shape, intensity to predict pressure and wind

a storm that has very high ADT but low reported winds is likely a - in the process of RI, or b - a big chungus that has much larger wind field than normal

wind * radius = constant, where the constant is the rough kinetic energy of the storm

3

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 16-Sep-20 10:39 AM

ADT estimates for Sally were actually just below cat 4

Winds lagged behind structure

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:40 AM

yup. she had a lot of room to grow if she didn't landfall. and her wind field was fairly large

Michael F. (Eisenstadt, Austria) 16-Sep-20 10:40 AM

back in hurricane laura every single shrimp that didn't even show rotation got warned, today storms with obvious signs of rotation are not warned

oh well, differences between NWS offices i guess

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 10:40 AM

depends on the local office's policy. florida gonna florida?

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 10:41 AM

https://twitter.com/GulfBreezeCity/status/1306237188762472449

City of Gulf Breeze (@GulfBreezeCity)

Please be advised Pensacola three mile bridge is closed. Do not venture out. STAY OFF THE STREETS to allow emergency personnel access. Stay tuned for further updates. Report your issues to https://t.co/07GZ8MaGui Call 911 for life threatening issues.

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 16-Sep-20 11:33 AM

https://twitter.com/nwsmobile/status/1306248843839717376?s=21

NWS Mobile (@NWSMobile)

Part of the brand new 3 mile bridge in Pensacola is missing (confirmed by multiple sources). #Sally https://t.co/jNI7gTmo4z

5

Part of the bridge is gone

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 12:03 PM

"Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 69. Windy, with an east wind 20-25 mph. With gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of rain 100%. In excess of 4 inches of rain possible"

Fun...

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 12:11 PM

https://twitter.com/GreggPachPNJ/status/1306261693681500166

Gregg Pachkowski (@GreggPachPNJ)

According to reports, a loose barge with crane is heading toward the I-10 bridge as #HurricaneSally moves through #Pensacola on Wednesday ⁦@pnj⁩

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 12:20 PM

Hurricanes like running things into bridges this year, don't they?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 12:20 PM

I guess they have the right of way

Bridges need to ceade the river to them, but they never seem to understand that.

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 12:34 PM

Guess EM’s should start writing plans for barges.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 01:03 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1306276873295585284

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

12 PM CDT: This will be the last hourly position update for Hurricane #Sally. Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 01:07 PM

Mom's apartment in Foley

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 01:29 PM

https://twitter.com/FOX10News/status/1306282457302544384

FOX10News | WALA (@FOX10News)

Curfew issued for City of Mobile https://t.co/4dmv9eXcgE

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 01:55 PM

Sally now a TS https://twitter.com/iembot_nhc/status/1306290260825923584

IEMBot NHC (@iembot_nhc)

Tropical Storm #Sally Intermediate ADVISORY 22A issued. https://t.co/S1Hwevnoro

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 02:03 PM

Any bets on if Sally is retired?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 16-Sep-20 02:14 PM

Widespread 20+ inches of rain sounds like retirement to me

Sort of like Imelda's situation

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 16-Sep-20 02:26 PM

I really hope fatalities are small

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 02:30 PM

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1306284295028441091?s=20

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack)

Our camera system monitoring Perdido River yesterday versus right now. Absolutely incredible! @NWSMobile @spann

Likes

203

6

The camera is almost underwater now

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 02:31 PM

Do we know what some of the rainfall totals are?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 16-Sep-20 02:45 PM

I'd say widespread totals of 20+ inches from Pensacola and areas east

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 03:07 PM

For reference, how high up was that camera mounted?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 03:08 PM

Pressure falls definitely evident now here

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 03:28 PM

@Alex V (Wausau, WI) 12 feet I think

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 03:36 PM

Is that surge or freshwater flooding?

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 03:38 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/1306313369574690816/photo/1

NWS Atlanta (@NWSAtlanta)

Here are the updated estimated wind gusts as the remnants of Sally approach our area. A wind advisory has been issued for areas south of I-20. Stay safe! #gawx

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 16-Sep-20 03:46 PM

so.... odds Sally ramps up again after moving back in the Atlantic?

5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 03:49 PM

several models have her influenced by the trough to her north and teddy. could cause her to pull south. some runs even had her make a full circle and end up as a TS in miami

7

someone in here yesterday was opining about how sally was such a weak TD when it came through miami he didn't even notice. round 2 would be fitting

5

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 03:51 PM

Is that surge or freshwater flooding?

@Alex V (Wausau, WI) freshwater flooding

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 03:52 PM

Damn

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 03:52 PM

radar estimates were likely too high due to brightbanding (hail in the signature) so 36" didn't fall. there were surface reports of up to 26" as of this morning

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 03:52 PM

Hail in a tropical updraft?

That is rare.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 16-Sep-20 03:53 PM

rare but it happens in very intense storms. you could see very high ZDR in the forward flank last night

the combo of strong hot towers + dry air infiltration = good mix for hail

and by hail, we're talking graupel probably, small stuff, but large enough to mess with radar cals

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 16-Sep-20 05:02 PM

Checking to see how it did in the storm: USS Alabama Battleship docked at Memorial Park in Mobile, AL

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 05:04 PM

I am pretty sure a ship designed to take and has taken shellfire, torpedoes, mines, and explosions is able to survive a Cat 2 while docked. (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 05:15 PM

It listed pretty heavily in Katrina but I think surge was rather mild that far west

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 16-Sep-20 05:16 PM

I would be less concerned of the state of the battleship itself (battlehips are tough as hell) and more of the possibility of it breaking it's moorings and plowing into a structure. (edited)

But there doesn't seem to be any reports of that happening.

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 16-Sep-20 05:48 PM

Sally is a TS now, guess no one updated the info yet

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 07:03 PM

nop been busy

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 07:39 PM

getting some 40 mph wind gusts

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 16-Sep-20 07:42 PM

Just starting to rain here

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 07:51 PM

I got overcast, breezy, and cool, doubt rain gets this far up with the S/E shifts

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 08:14 PM

Yep, Gust of 37-38 recorded

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 16-Sep-20 09:01 PM

Peak gust of 41

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:02 PM

I'm likely getting gusts in the 40-50 mph range

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 09:25 PM

https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1306393994906292226

Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci)

Just got to the hotel and was able to look at some of the photos from today. Check out this forest, with about 30 to 40 percent of all trees downed, in Summerdale, Alabama. https://t.co/hrwDj9JKzn

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:42 PM

Very Ivan-esque

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 16-Sep-20 09:42 PM

if a tree falls in a forest (and nobody takes a picture of it).....

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:42 PM

Hundreds of miles of shredded pines

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 16-Sep-20 09:42 PM

bet it smells amazing

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 16-Sep-20 09:42 PM

That's one way of thinning a woodlot I guess

Lol yeah

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 10:15 PM

That’s got to be devastating to the logging industry since michael is still so recent.

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 16-Sep-20 10:52 PM

if they pick up the recently fallen, they can still salvage a little lumber

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 16-Sep-20 10:59 PM

Yeah. It’ll help. The good thing is they likely won’t have the access and power issues like after michael.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 16-Sep-20 11:00 PM

Sally now a depression

Howard Robinson(Vancouver,BC) 17-Sep-20 01:37 AM

Guess she got depressed she is on land now * ducks*

So how much rain has falling?

Max (Saint John, NB) 17-Sep-20 08:29 AM

26-30 inches im pr sure

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 10:41 AM

Mom's workplace in Fort Morgan (120+ gusts) and a rental unit, most of the company's units have major damage

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 17-Sep-20 11:25 AM

https://twitter.com/iembot_nhc/status/1306609053087531008

IEMBot NHC (@iembot_nhc)

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Sally ADVISORY 26 issued. https://t.co/S1Hwev5NzQ

3

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 17-Sep-20 03:59 PM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/484924724258799647/756233150597693490/1920px-Sally_2020_track.png

What a track

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 17-Sep-20 04:00 PM

https://twitter.com/BrantlyWx/status/1306660682788732935?s=20

Brantly Keiek (@BrantlyWx)

PENSACOLA BAY BRIDGE: Damage to the newly built span of the 3 Mile Bridge that connects Pensacola and Gulf Breeze. 8 construction barges became loose during #Sally, with 2 of them hitting the bridge. This is a $400 million infrastructure project.

Photos from Kathryn Hendr...

6

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 17-Sep-20 04:15 PM

charge the barge company for not securing the craft

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 17-Sep-20 04:15 PM

Is Bridge x Barge 2020 Atlantic's OTP? (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 17-Sep-20 05:03 PM

Half a billion in damage in one little area

Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 17-Sep-20 09:22 PM

RIP Sally. Post-Tropical

ModBot BOT 17-Sep-20 09:22 PM

Archived.