https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1285921713255927809?s=20

Smol boi

Micro-canes are neat, joins the Beryl and Danny ranks

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1285947722713886721

the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur From the discussion

Looks like NHC went the middle route. Models hate this system and want it to die by H120 while SHIPS and HWRF want rapid intensification

NHC expecting Gonzalo to strengthen into a hurricane by 8am Thu (edited)

Excellent forecast and discussion at 11 imo, clearly quickly on course for hurricane

Might peak AND start declining a little faster than forecast but smol bois are hard to pin down

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/735228120797282395/735542504900001922/goes16_vis_goes16-meso2_20200722165806.png

I’m no expert but sure looks like a possible eye clearing starting to happen

Looks like it

Might honestly make a quick run for cat 2 if it doesn't eat a bunch of dry air

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1285987939584028673?s=21

Ridiculous cloud tops in nascent eastern eyewall

Newer GFS run a lot less insistent on dissipation, CMC giving a pretty nasty look too if environment decided to cooperate

Once those hot towers wrap around the center, might be off to the races for a while

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285991760179716099

I believe that CMC was really the first model to sniff this out

Seems like whatever they did when they upgraded it last year/earlier this year made the CMC a lot better model than it used to be.

Most of the other globals are still scrambling to even catch Gonzalo, maybe getting better now but earlier seemed to initialize poorly; win for the CMC

Yeah, CMC has definitely been doing better lately even outside of tropics

And the 12z run of the CMC has making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/484924724258799647/735583982934032430/07L_intensity_latest_1.png

Lets all bet on which model it'll follow

I'm going to go with ICON.

I'm not betting, could honestly be any of those at this point

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1286046955982987266

Dry air might be becoming a problem to the NW

I think whether or not this storm survives for long depends on how wide it gets, a larger storm will have a better time since it will create it's own surrounding weather system and keep dry air and shear out, a tiny storm will fizzle quickly once it hits less favorable conditions.

A larger storm would also get into the big ol dry air mass to the north tho, not much winning either way

one of the local weather mets was saying Gonz might be weakened by the tall island mountains before entering the Gulf

If it makes it that far

Up to 60 mph and hurricane watch issued for Barbados

Wow. Being pretty proactive. Though better safe than sorry and not too much more than 48h out

Not surprised, it has been organizing pretty rapidly.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/550108162020212776/735686475940888586/07L_intensity_00z.png

Is it just me, or are model trends evolving similar to how Dorian's evolved last year?

Starting off modest, but slowly creeping up into higher windspeeds

Although this one to a much lesser extent

I wonder how the NHC will tweak their next forecast

The fact that the two scenarios are die a quick painful death in dry stable air or grow into a major hurricane - and not much in between - makes me glad I'm not at a forecast desk

Honestly some of the globals are STILL initializing this tiny system very poorly so I am not sure what to trust, I think the more aggressive models are still slightly too optimistic that it can power through that dry stable air to the NW so honestly the NHC middle ground approach seems pretty reasonable

Discouraging that there isn't a ton of land that will stop this thing if it doesn't dissipate. A massive IF it gets into the Gulf will things get interesting, especially Texas where there could be some flash flooding from TD8.

Incredible heat content in WCarib too right now, if it survives could certainly get dicey

For a fast moving, small system like this OHC doesn't matter too much. Though SST anomalies are near record levels in the caribbean

Just curious to see if it survives to take advantage of that

and keep in mind with "small systems" they can weaken and intensify rapidly as well

Looks like garbage right now but if it can mix out dry air today still has about 48 hours, think current intensity is too high but can be fiddled with in post analysis

The mimic data isn't very impressive for this guy. Not alot if moisture to work with. Dry air killing him. But don't put a fork in him yet. Same thing happened to Dorian and we know how he ended

https://twitter.com/schlobohmasa/status/1286336283342704644?s=21

Don’t think it’s dead yet but great tweet lol (edited)

(edited)

Also has weakened to 60mph

Gotta be on up there with some of thr smallest in the basin at that point, at least ones over 50kt

Marco was so smol. (edited)

11.5 mile radius TS force winds for smallest TC on record overall (including all basins). Marco was close to Cat 1 though. 25 mile radius is still small (edited)

gonzalo looks toast on sat. T-2.3. better have a good nocturnal pulse or it's gone by tomorrow

Eh, it's making an alright recovery

Raw T back up to 3.1

Rebuilt a small CDO, with banding starting to redevelop just now

Now even the euro keeps it around for a few more days, so that sudden dissipation path seems unlikely

Gonzalo is looking better, it seems to have mixed out the dry air and is rebuilding the CDO and has hot towers again.

Given this Sat presentation I say a hurricane run still isn't off the table, but I see it dying in the Caribbean given the conditions in that area and it's size.

It's recovered quite well, chance at a hurricane is back on the table with this

Yeah but I don't see it lasting long past the Lesser Antilles

I see a low end hurricane before the Windwards but the conditions currently present in the Caribbean shred small storms like this. (edited)

Keep in mind smaller storms have easier times going through rapid intensification or weakening

Take Patricia for example

Recon about to Gonzalo, get our best look of it yet here

Wut

Trying to find a center

It’s there but it’s not good looking

It have opened back up into a wave

nope, still closed

just very weak

Pressure is about 1008-1009mb, definitely not looking great

Also to note, the center is still below 10N

40/1008 on Gonzalo rip

is that the storm causing my waves out here and ruining my snorkling?

If you're in the gulf #hurricane-hanna-2020

ah hanna

Gonzalo's track is getting incredibly similar to Harvey's past track oh god

harvey old track

Gonzalo now

Some models try to redevelop it in WCarib, let's hope not

Let's hope it dissipates before it gets to the gulf of mexico

because it is 30C water over there

Looks like it’s a TD now

storm

Looks like a center reformation is being attempted

Might be on its last leg

Poor Gonzalo, tried so hard but just couldn't do it

Well recon confirms my suspicions

Also Gonzalo still under 10N

Spot Gonzalo lol

NHC keeps it a TS

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 57.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Still overperformed by simply existing in that local environment

They even admit it's not a Tropical Storm

"The aircraft has not yet found winds to support tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission overnight."

Rip

landfall got pushed back a bit

So landfall has been pushed by ~5 hours

So that gives it MORE time to intensify

Based on that, around 5-6 pm tomorrow

Actually wrong channel lol (edited)

LOL

Gonzalo survives for now, Air Force recon found TS winds

Gonzalo about to make landfall

Gonzalo did a big die

Gonzalo now a depression

Yeah Gonzalo was short lived. Oof

Gonzalo died

it might revive later tho

I wouldn't completely count Gonzalo out, it could take advantage of the warm waters of the west Caribbean/Gulf

https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1287124978626736128?s=21

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1287133740406374401

Eh, probably dissipated before it entered the Caribbean, NHC just extended it a few advisories

️

gonzalo did the die

RIP Gonzalo.

Archived.