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EVENT ARCHIVE / ts-gonzalo-2020
5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 25 | Location: 11.0°N 63.0°W | Moving: W at 21 mph | Min pressure: 1011 mb | Max sustained: 35 mph
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 22-Jul-20 09:54 AM
Tropical Storm #Gonzalo has formed over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Update for more info: https://t.co/k5cRXbtKv2
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 10:30 AM
Smol boi
Micro-canes are neat, joins the Beryl and Danny ranks
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Jul-20 10:44 AM
Tropical Storm #Gonzalo Advisory 4: Gonzalo Continuing to Strengthen. Expected to Become a Hurricane By Thursday. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Jul-20 10:48 AM
the cyclone has been strengthening quickly and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid, strengthening should occur From the discussion
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Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 22-Jul-20 10:49 AM
Looks like NHC went the middle route. Models hate this system and want it to die by H120 while SHIPS and HWRF want rapid intensification
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Jul-20 11:03 AM
NHC expecting Gonzalo to strengthen into a hurricane by 8am Thu (edited)
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 11:38 AM
Excellent forecast and discussion at 11 imo, clearly quickly on course for hurricane
Might peak AND start declining a little faster than forecast but smol bois are hard to pin down
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Jul-20 01:08 PM
I’m no expert but sure looks like a possible eye clearing starting to happen
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 01:22 PM
Looks like it
Might honestly make a quick run for cat 2 if it doesn't eat a bunch of dry air
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Jul-20 01:23 PM
Tropical Storm #Gonzalo appears to be developing an eye. A ring of deep convection is forming near the center of the storm.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 01:38 PM
Ridiculous cloud tops in nascent eastern eyewall
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 01:45 PM
Newer GFS run a lot less insistent on dissipation, CMC giving a pretty nasty look too if environment decided to cooperate
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 02:31 PM
Once those hot towers wrap around the center, might be off to the races for a while
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Jul-20 02:56 PM
Just got another AMSR2 pass over #Gonzalo. The dredded closed "cyan ring" is evident on 36GHz color at 10N/44W, w/ a somewhat more ragged appearance on 89GHz bt w/ the formative eyewall open west. Convective axis-symmetrization appears to be occurring & could foreshadow RI.
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I believe that CMC was really the first model to sniff this out
Seems like whatever they did when they upgraded it last year/earlier this year made the CMC a lot better model than it used to be.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 03:10 PM
Most of the other globals are still scrambling to even catch Gonzalo, maybe getting better now but earlier seemed to initialize poorly; win for the CMC
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 22-Jul-20 03:22 PM
Yeah, CMC has definitely been doing better lately even outside of tropics
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Jul-20 03:22 PM
And the 12z run of the CMC has making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Jul-20 04:28 PM
Lets all bet on which model it'll follow
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Ardent(North Georgia) 22-Jul-20 04:59 PM
I'm going to go with ICON.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 22-Jul-20 05:02 PM
I'm not betting, could honestly be any of those at this point
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 22-Jul-20 05:21 PM
Tropical Storm #Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, with a very compact inner core. Nonetheless, a GMI overpass within the past hour shows a closed low-level eyewall and deep convection within the eastern eyewall. Continued intensification seems likely in the short term.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 06:22 PM
Dry air might be becoming a problem to the NW
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Jul-20 06:53 PM
I think whether or not this storm survives for long depends on how wide it gets, a larger storm will have a better time since it will create it's own surrounding weather system and keep dry air and shear out, a tiny storm will fizzle quickly once it hits less favorable conditions.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 07:22 PM
A larger storm would also get into the big ol dry air mass to the north tho, not much winning either way
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TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 22-Jul-20 08:08 PM
one of the local weather mets was saying Gonz might be weakened by the tall island mountains before entering the Gulf
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 08:30 PM
If it makes it that far
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Jul-20 10:39 PM
Up to 60 mph and hurricane watch issued for Barbados
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Jul-20 10:40 PM
Wow. Being pretty proactive. Though better safe than sorry and not too much more than 48h out
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Jul-20 11:12 PM
Not surprised, it has been organizing pretty rapidly.
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 23-Jul-20 01:10 AM
Is it just me, or are model trends evolving similar to how Dorian's evolved last year?
Starting off modest, but slowly creeping up into higher windspeeds
Although this one to a much lesser extent
I wonder how the NHC will tweak their next forecast
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Jul-20 01:38 AM
The fact that the two scenarios are die a quick painful death in dry stable air or grow into a major hurricane - and not much in between - makes me glad I'm not at a forecast desk
Honestly some of the globals are STILL initializing this tiny system very poorly so I am not sure what to trust, I think the more aggressive models are still slightly too optimistic that it can power through that dry stable air to the NW so honestly the NHC middle ground approach seems pretty reasonable
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Jul-20 01:43 AM
Discouraging that there isn't a ton of land that will stop this thing if it doesn't dissipate. A massive IF it gets into the Gulf will things get interesting, especially Texas where there could be some flash flooding from TD8.
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Jul-20 01:47 AM
Incredible heat content in WCarib too right now, if it survives could certainly get dicey
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Jul-20 01:55 AM
For a fast moving, small system like this OHC doesn't matter too much. Though SST anomalies are near record levels in the caribbean
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Jul-20 01:56 AM
Just curious to see if it survives to take advantage of that
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Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Jul-20 02:38 AM
and keep in mind with "small systems" they can weaken and intensify rapidly as well
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Jul-20 11:03 AM
Looks like garbage right now but if it can mix out dry air today still has about 48 hours, think current intensity is too high but can be fiddled with in post analysis
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jul-20 11:54 AM
The mimic data isn't very impressive for this guy. Not alot if moisture to work with. Dry air killing him. But don't put a fork in him yet. Same thing happened to Dorian and we know how he ended
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Jul-20 12:39 PM
Don’t think it’s dead yet but great tweet lol (edited)
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Jul-20 01:44 PM
The satellite wind data indicate that Gonzalo is an even smaller storm than previously thought, and tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
(edited)
Also has weakened to 60mph
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 23-Jul-20 01:55 PM
Gotta be on up there with some of thr smallest in the basin at that point, at least ones over 50kt
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GanondorfMain7606 23-Jul-20 02:55 PM
Marco was so smol. (edited)
11.5 mile radius TS force winds for smallest TC on record overall (including all basins). Marco was close to Cat 1 though. 25 mile radius is still small (edited)
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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Jul-20 03:29 PM
gonzalo looks toast on sat. T-2.3. better have a good nocturnal pulse or it's gone by tomorrow
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Jul-20 03:36 PM
Eh, it's making an alright recovery
Raw T back up to 3.1
Rebuilt a small CDO, with banding starting to redevelop just now
Now even the euro keeps it around for a few more days, so that sudden dissipation path seems unlikely
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Jul-20 07:39 PM
Gonzalo is looking better, it seems to have mixed out the dry air and is rebuilding the CDO and has hot towers again.
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Jul-20 11:20 PM
Given this Sat presentation I say a hurricane run still isn't off the table, but I see it dying in the Caribbean given the conditions in that area and it's size.
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Jul-20 11:21 PM
It's recovered quite well, chance at a hurricane is back on the table with this
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Jul-20 11:21 PM
Yeah but I don't see it lasting long past the Lesser Antilles
I see a low end hurricane before the Windwards but the conditions currently present in the Caribbean shred small storms like this. (edited)
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GanondorfMain7606 24-Jul-20 11:21 AM
Keep in mind smaller storms have easier times going through rapid intensification or weakening
Take Patricia for example
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 12:03 PM
Recon about to Gonzalo, get our best look of it yet here
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Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 24-Jul-20 01:08 PM
Wut
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 01:08 PM
Trying to find a center
It’s there but it’s not good looking
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 24-Jul-20 01:08 PM
It have opened back up into a wave
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Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 24-Jul-20 01:11 PM
nope, still closed
just very weak
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 01:11 PM
Pressure is about 1008-1009mb, definitely not looking great
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 01:47 PM
Also to note, the center is still below 10N
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Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 24-Jul-20 04:40 PM
40/1008 on Gonzalo rip
🇫 4
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Jul-20 04:47 PM
is that the storm causing my waves out here and ruining my snorkling?
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 24-Jul-20 04:48 PM
If you're in the gulf #hurricane-hanna-2020
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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Jul-20 04:48 PM
ah hanna
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Jul-20 08:36 PM
Gonzalo's track is getting incredibly similar to Harvey's past track oh god
harvey old track
Gonzalo now
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Jul-20 08:43 PM
Some models try to redevelop it in WCarib, let's hope not
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Jul-20 08:43 PM
Let's hope it dissipates before it gets to the gulf of mexico
because it is 30C water over there
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Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Jul-20 10:20 PM
Looks like it’s a TD now
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 24-Jul-20 10:21 PM
💩 storm
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 10:28 PM
Looks like a center reformation is being attempted
Might be on its last leg
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Jul-20 10:28 PM
Poor Gonzalo, tried so hard but just couldn't do it
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 10:33 PM
Well recon confirms my suspicions
Also Gonzalo still under 10N
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 10:42 PM
Spot Gonzalo lol
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Jul-20 10:43 PM
NHC keeps it a TS
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 57.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF TRINIDAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 10:44 PM
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Jul-20 10:44 PM
Still overperformed by simply existing in that local environment
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Jul-20 10:44 PM
They even admit it's not a Tropical Storm
"The aircraft has not yet found winds to support tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission overnight."
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Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Jul-20 10:44 PM
Rip
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Cameron (Fortson, GA) 24-Jul-20 10:54 PM
landfall got pushed back a bit
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Jul-20 10:59 PM
So landfall has been pushed by ~5 hours
So that gives it MORE time to intensify ohshit
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Jul-20 11:00 PM
Based on that, around 5-6 pm tomorrow
Actually wrong channel lol (edited)
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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Jul-20 11:09 PM
Yao
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Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 24-Jul-20 11:29 PM
LOL
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Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 25-Jul-20 01:38 AM
Gonzalo survives for now, Air Force recon found TS winds
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Jul-20 09:37 AM
Gonzalo about to make landfall
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Jul-20 10:24 AM
Gonzalo did a big die
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Jul-20 01:57 PM
Gonzalo now a depression
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Sean H(Houghton,MI) 25-Jul-20 03:18 PM
Yeah Gonzalo was short lived. Oof
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Jul-20 04:04 PM
Gonzalo died
it might revive later tho
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Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Jul-20 04:13 PM
I wouldn't completely count Gonzalo out, it could take advantage of the warm waters of the west Caribbean/Gulf
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Jul-20 04:41 PM
Remnants Of #Gonzalo Advisory 17: Remnants of Gonzalo Moving Across the Far Southeast Caribbean. This is the Last Nhc Advisory. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
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Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-Jul-20 04:44 PM
🇫
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Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Jul-20 04:51 PM
🇫 7
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Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 25-Jul-20 05:30 PM
The Eastern Caribbean Graveyard claims another victim as Gonzalo dissipates. https://t.co/9qcPCdUroN https://t.co/1GJfhraX0D
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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Jul-20 05:32 PM
Eh, probably dissipated before it entered the Caribbean, NHC just extended it a few advisories
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Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 25-Jul-20 05:53 PM
⚰
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Eric (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Jul-20 07:11 PM
gonzalo did the die
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Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱ 25-Jul-20 08:18 PM
RIP Gonzalo.
Archived.
Exported 131 message(s)