Stormtrack - ts-marco-2020

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 10:46 AM

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 22-Aug-20 10:55 AM

Up to 65 mph

4

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 10:58 AM

Could be Hurricane Marco before the afternoon is over

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 10:59 AM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 10:59 AM

TS winds only expand 45 miles from the center

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 11:00 AM

Following in the steps of Marco 2008

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 11:01 AM

The updated track forecast suggests that watches could be required for a portion of the central Gulf Coast later today.

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 11:03 AM

I'm prepping for the potential of having 2 storms. I'm about 60 miles sw of New Orleans

Got sandbags this morning

Cleaning our road drains and ditch today.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 11:03 AM

Good luck, @Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA).

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 11:10 AM

Thanks, not worried much. Our lot is like 3 ft higher than those around us, which puts us at sea level, lmao

1

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 22-Aug-20 11:40 AM

What on Monday night is supposed to weaken Marco. Is there shear? Or interaction from Laura?

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 22-Aug-20 11:48 AM

I'm pretty sure it's headed into shear

Justin | @Helicity (Houma, LA) 22-Aug-20 12:00 PM

Straight up nightmare scenario.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 22-Aug-20 12:38 PM

Recon says the eyewall is closed and the eye's diameter is 10 nautical miles. 70 kt+ flight level winds in the N eyewall with a 55 kt SFMR reading. Very close to being a hurricane now. https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0514A-MARCO.png

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 12:48 PM

seems like Marco is still turning to the right some on satellite

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 12:50 PM

ADT is way off the mark

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.7 / 999.7mb/ 39.0kt

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 22-Aug-20 12:51 PM

When was the last time a storm threaded the needle this perfectly between yucatan and Cuba?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 12:56 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/746013958221332532/746774542067957760/recon_AF309-0514A-MARCO_dropsonde19_20200822-1628.png

6

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 01:32 PM

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 01:55 PM

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:06 PM

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 02:11 PM

Really surprised it's being kept at 65 after seeing that recon data.

1

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 22-Aug-20 02:55 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 02:58 PM

Winds are well ahead of satellite presentation. This is a super dynamic storm. Not a convective impresser. God forbid the convection kicks up. We could see some serious RI.

18z ships: RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.7% 54.6% 35.4% 23.1% 13.9% 25.6% 16.5% 0.0%

Borderline cat 2 in 24-30 hours.

Pretty solid odds of RI gives us 80-90 kts by tomorrow

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 22-Aug-20 03:14 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:20 PM

No more lightning near the center. No more dry air. It's becoming a normal tropical system finally

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 22-Aug-20 03:21 PM

Does the presence of lightning have to do with the mixing coming from dry air?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:22 PM

A well mixed and moist tropical convective burst from a tropical system won't produce lightning outside of the most extreme eyewalls

The dry air entrainment into the convection help promote cooler low levels and more traditional lightning. A true tropical updraft never freezes and therefore won't produce ice or lightning

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 03:23 PM

Or the outer bands which operate more like normal bands of thunderstorms.

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:24 PM

Normals thunderstorms = / = tropical convection (edited)

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 03:26 PM

Getting pretty close to the Western tip of Cuba

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 22-Aug-20 03:31 PM

Center is west of that mark

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 03:38 PM

Yeah looks to be that notch at 21.5 85.5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 03:45 PM

12z euro has double landfall in new Orleans

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 04:34 PM

Eye clearing?

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 22-Aug-20 04:55 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1297275865693220864

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Storm #Marco Advisory 10: Big Changes to This Afternoon'S Forecast For Marco. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches Issued For the Northern Gulf Coast. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 04:56 PM

3

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 22-Aug-20 05:00 PM

Could spell trouble for NOLA and vicinity with both coming onshore only a day or two apart from each other

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 05:01 PM

Serial hurricanes, has that happened in recorded history?

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 22-Aug-20 05:01 PM

I believe so

Max (Saint John, NB) 22-Aug-20 05:03 PM

yes but never in the gulf

theres been 2 C5s simultaneously I believe

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 05:33 PM

Serial landfalls is rare. Closest I've seen is like 7 days apart

Anyone else see the foreboding tweet from the hurricane hunter that they had to gain altitude in macro because the low levels were too rough, and that he was worried it might be a sleeper

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 05:46 PM

do you have their twitter handle (Hurricane Hunter, that is) Royce?

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Aug-20 05:53 PM

There's the eastward shift.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 06:44 PM

Marco gives me the vibes of a slower-moving Nate, more of a dynamically strong storm than a convectively strong storm.

Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 22-Aug-20 06:45 PM

this tweet? https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1297265823258750981?s=20

Jeremy DeHart (@JeremyDeHart53d)

Evolution of the eyewall of #Marco over 4 fixes/4.5 hours. Had to climb from 2500ft to 5000ft literally as we were making the 1st fix bc we wanted no part of this so close to water. Pressure dropped like a rock then leveled off. Let's hope this one is not a sleeper… @53rdWRS

Likes

238

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 06:48 PM

That's a definite hurricane, not sure why the advisories don't have it as one yet.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 22-Aug-20 07:24 PM

New recon is in now

Looks like strengthening leveled out

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 22-Aug-20 07:27 PM

Though they started with a NW -> SE pass

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 22-Aug-20 07:30 PM

Didn't the NW eyewall have the strongest winds last time though?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 07:42 PM

Looks like he has weakened some actually (edited)

It was the NE/E Garrett

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 07:50 PM

That 996 reading seems off considering it was 993 last recon.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 22-Aug-20 07:55 PM

He has some new convection firing rn

So we'll see

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:03 PM

His main problem currently seems to be that intense band still.

That band is intense with an insane amount of lightning and that lightning has ramped up.

That cluster of storms needs to collapse for the core to keep strengthening

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:44 PM

New HWRF run rapidly weakens and dissipates Marco

Could be a crap run since it has some questionable dynamics but we will see.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 08:57 PM

Lightning activity in that storm cluster decreased a bit and it's cloud tops warmed a bit, convection seems to be trying to fire around it's core so it might be able to re-intensify again soon.

FL winds in NE pass at 55 kts but surface at 60 kts, probably will be kept at 65 mph next advisory.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 08:59 PM

it will be interesting if Marco decides to continue moving to the right

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:02 PM

Marco's central pressure seems to fluctuate a lot.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 22-Aug-20 09:04 PM

Marco is not the best looking tropical system right now

at least on satellite

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:10 PM

997mb Weakening again? That band really is sucking energy. Though that might change as it is deteriorating and it's firing fresh convection near it's core again.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:17 PM

Its still not wrapped up yet. Low level convergence still sucks (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 22-Aug-20 09:18 PM

As it moves further into the gulf overnight things'll get better for it

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:19 PM

It appears to be improving already since the thunderstorm cluster is deteriorating while it's throwing up more convection near the core again.

Next advisory will probably be 996/65mph

Or 997/60mph

Though the SFMR makes me think it will be kept at 65

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 09:40 PM

Microwave shows most intense storms are down shear. A weakening signal. Maybe it will recognize overnight

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 09:45 PM

Obvious even when looking at sat, though in the last few frames it does appear to be pulling itself together again somewhat.

Whatever happens Marco is just a player for Laura's stage anyways, what Marco does will be more of a concern with where Laura goes than Marco's impacts on land at this point. (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 10:28 PM

Marco got hot tower again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 10:42 PM

995 mb dropsonde with 14 kts wind

Might be giving it a go again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 22-Aug-20 10:55 PM

Lightning showing up in Marco's hot towers, he's giving it another go.

New update keeps it at 994/65

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:27 PM

macro's convective burst is cricling the eye counter clockwise. it's gonna go nuts tonight

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Aug-20 11:28 PM

Well unless the shear picks up again, seems to have found a lighter pocket of it currently

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 22-Aug-20 11:36 PM

its under 10-20 kts of shear, but due to it's movement, the first 10 kts do nothing. the models arent' handlnig it well

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 12:01 AM

993mb center fix

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 12:01 AM

Still going strong with that upshear CB

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 12:06 AM

Last center fix has it going NW now

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 12:10 AM

We back to the pressure drop

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 12:47 AM

Looks like those storms are dying off while the convection near the core is becoming more dominant. Marco gonna strengthen more.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 01:12 AM

TT looks to have froze right as the new recon was passing the center

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:14 AM

Anywhere else we can get recon data?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 01:15 AM

No new recon data has come through in over 25 minutes, not just a TT thing

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:15 AM

Something disrupted the signal?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 01:17 AM

Came through

993.7

60kt SFMR

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 01:19 AM

Starting to pick back up again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 01:19 AM

Almost a hurricane.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 01:20 AM

Looks like it's also redeveloped an eyewall, open SW

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:21 AM

Large swath of hurricane-force winds aloft.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 02:30 AM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 03:08 AM

this is the most janky near-hurricane since... like last year

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 03:55 AM

A lot of thunderstorm activity around the center

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 04:22 AM

I think they'll got Cat 1 at 5 am

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 23-Aug-20 04:44 AM

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 04:45 AM

I don't know, I was figuring they would maybe pull the trigger after the next recon

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 04:56 AM

Hurricane Warnings have been posted

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 05:00 AM

Cat 1 peak still but they urge that intensity forecast may change

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 10:08 AM

62 knot SFMRs this pass

This is super close to hurricane status

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:53 AM

Weakens this pass but with increasing flight level winds and 66kts just above the surface... ...what the hell is this thing???

Ed Tierney (Des Plaines, IL) 23-Aug-20 10:57 AM

https://twitter.com/ZachWaltersWX/status/1297338053850206214?s=20

Zach Walters (@ZachWaltersWX)

The NHC trying to figure out where Marco will be. https://t.co/o7SlsjZRT9

2

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 11:28 AM

Jesus

Nearly 70kt SFMR

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:31 AM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:32 AM

Wonder if they'll bump it up to 80 mph?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:34 AM

Marcos surface convergence is finally near the center. It should start to organize better now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 11:51 AM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al14/mpswtcke/2020al14_mpswtcke_202008231500.gif

It's a hurricane by energy, not official yet

Looks even better on sat now. We might get an eye to pop soon

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 12:04 PM

Got that NW curve.

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 23-Aug-20 12:08 PM

There was thunderstorms firing all around the center last night so this has certainly got itself organized

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 12:17 PM

Yep, legit thunderstorms, lots of lightning and everything, lots of lightning still.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 12:17 PM

https://twitter.com/JRobersonFOX8/status/1297570106881564678

Josh Roberson FOX 8 (@JRobersonFOX8)

#BREAKING Jean Lafitte will be under a MANDATORY evacuation starting at noon today. Mayor Kerner says they have to air on the side of caution due to #Marco. Can’t wait on #Laura because they don’t want resident out driving in between or during storms if they try to move @FOX8...

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 87.4W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

10

Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 23-Aug-20 12:47 PM

have to air on the side of caution

err err on the side of caution

3

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 02:17 PM

Looking at the satellite, Marco may be starting to develop an eye

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:25 PM

@Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) dvorak shows a little hole just west of the estimated center. Not much but could be the start

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 02:25 PM

ah

ty Royce

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:28 PM

It's afternoon so it's not a sun shadow. There is a legit depression just west of the main towers. Could be it hunters will be able to tell

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:31 PM

Given where the curvature of lightning activity is relative to the hole I am gonna say no, that is not an eye.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:31 PM

IR does not agree. It shows towers wrapped around the west with the center east

Infact, those towers wrapping to the upshear side, again, bad sign. Means likely intensification

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al14/mpswtcke/2020al14_mpswtcke_202008231800.gif

More than meets the "eye"

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al14/diagplot/2020al14_diagplot_202008231800.png

2

GFS with the double tap.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 02:50 PM

What is recon doing?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 02:50 PM

Too high for a search and rescue.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 02:51 PM

Could be sampling or testing instruments

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:08 PM

Recon data froze again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:14 PM

I don’t think it froze, they are just circling in the same exact path each time

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:15 PM

Looks frozen, the plane is in the same spot every time I look. (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 03:26 PM

Recon heading home it seems

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 03:31 PM

Monster burst near the center. With lightning

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:36 PM

What went wrong with recon? They circled and circled and headed home.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 03:46 PM

Looks like they are on the ground right now, looks like mechanical failure they attempted to correct in flight but requires external maintenance.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 03:52 PM

kek

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 03:53 PM

Some of those planes are from the late 50s. They need constant repair. The pilots here at offutt were protesting their safety conditions (edited)

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 04:03 PM

Marco's outerbands getting strung by the upper-level trough making their way here

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 04:06 PM

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al14/dgtldvor/2020al14_dgtldvor_202008231800.gif

Dvorak really likes Marco. The red line up top moving up is bad. That's the maximum potential vel.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 04:13 PM

ADT puts Marco at 61kts, so we should keep in mind that ADT for Marco (due to it's dynamics) probably has a +5-10kt margin of error. (edited)

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) For that graphic is that surface level winds or aloft? Because Marco going to 90kts already would be an achievement for a storm like it.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 04:23 PM

Those are maximum potential surface winds based on current Dvorak

When the green line meets the red line it's fully matured to its max potential

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 04:26 PM

Marco's satellite presentation looking more lopsided again

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 04:26 PM

For now

That convection will wrap around it’s E end again and it will gain a few kts

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 05:03 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Aug-20 05:17 PM

marco still looks pretty healthy. but it's about to hit the wall of shear. this is probably the min pressure

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 05:24 PM

According to the NHC it's already under 20-25kt of shear

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 05:25 PM

Increases to 30 knots tonight and 40 knots tomorrow. Should be pretty significant

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 05:25 PM

As it turns further west it'll also be more perpendicular to the shear vector, increasing effective shear and that's when it'll really struggle

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 07:01 PM

Marco is really feeling that shear right now.

3

1

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 08:32 PM

Why is recon flying so high up? They are flying above the significant winds for the most part.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 08:37 PM

~3000m is the standard for an organized system

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 08:38 PM

Or more precisely, the 700mb layer

2

They’ll fly down to the 850 mb layer on weaker storms/invests

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 08:39 PM

Was confused because the measured winds were so weak

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 08:43 PM

Marco may not be a hurricane when he makes landfall tomorrow

the storm does not look good on satellite

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 08:45 PM

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Aug-20 08:54 PM

Reminder - If you are going to be in the strike zone for this storm, let an Orange know, and you will get the red Ground Zero role, and posting access on #laura-ground-zero-2020 .

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 09:30 PM

He ain't done yet it looks like

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 09:36 PM

Double wind maxima, wonder if it attempted an EWRC

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 09:38 PM

It looks like they are finding two centers.

Cameron (Fortson, GA) 23-Aug-20 09:39 PM

Wouldn't think so given it didn't have a definitive eyewall in the first place since this morning

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 09:39 PM

Told a possibility of a decoupling of the MLC and LLC (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 09:40 PM

Looks like it might be attempting to relocate to the NE, hence the doubles.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 09:41 PM

More than likely the shear is decoupling the MLC and LLC.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 23-Aug-20 09:44 PM

Honestly might not even be a cane rn

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 09:45 PM

Looks like it, extrap pressure really shot up this pass

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 09:45 PM

Yeah 1003 mb

beard (fort worth) 23-Aug-20 09:49 PM

It's already a hurricane and it was forecasted to fall apart and become a t.s. by tomorrow anyway.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 09:49 PM

Considering ATCF has it as a 70 mph TS, it most likely isn’t

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 09:51 PM

ADT puts it at 63 kts, just shy of a cane.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 09:52 PM

ADT can pretty much be scrapped when there's recon

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 09:53 PM

Point was even ADT is putting it below cane status.

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 23-Aug-20 09:57 PM

Gotcha

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 10:06 PM

Still a north movement but slowed some it seems (edited)

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 10:10 PM

That would explain why shear is suddenly taking such a toll on it, previously it's rapid movement was aiding it against the shear.

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 23-Aug-20 10:54 PM

Marco now a Tropical Storm

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 11:00 PM

It is not out of the question that full decoupling could happen before Marco reaches the coast and the system never makes landfall.

If this thing actually never makes landfall lol

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 23-Aug-20 11:02 PM

If this thing actually never makes landfall lol

@Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) peak 2020

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 23-Aug-20 11:03 PM

A hurricane in the gulf and doesn’t make landfall, has that even happened before

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 23-Aug-20 11:05 PM

As I said the other day, Marco is and always was just a player on Laura's stage anyways

The impact of Marco was always going to be greater when it comes to Laura's positioning than what Marco does on land itself

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:42 AM

Well my parents are offically worried about Marco now lmao.

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 24-Aug-20 01:49 AM

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) where are they?

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:51 AM

Houston. West side. Flooded with Harvey any storm is PTSD @Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas)

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 24-Aug-20 01:53 AM

@Sean H(Houghton,MI) fortunately neither storm looks anything like Harvey, but it never hurts to take some precautions if needed. Marco is really falling apart, but will still dump some rain.

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:53 AM

Yeah. Here's hoping haha. Tracking them every hour.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 01:54 AM

Latest recon show Marco is struggling considerably

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:55 AM

Yeah. Is there a High or something causing it to weaken alot?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 01:55 AM

Well a great amount of shear

Sean H(Houghton,MI) 24-Aug-20 01:55 AM

Gotcha.

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 03:38 AM

Marco is currently racing towards the panhandle

There's a chance it could unexpectedly make landfall their fairly quickly

This isn't just a wobble, it looks to be moving Northeast

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 03:44 AM

The CDO is moving that way, but the LLC is currently SW of the convection

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 03:45 AM

In that case, is it already decapitated/decoupled? (edited)

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 03:45 AM

Basically

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 03:46 AM

RIP

It might not even be a TC by the 11 am advisory

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 03:47 AM

There’s some sort of swirl around 28.0 N 88.0 W. Not sure if that’s the center or not

Advisory 2 hours ago had it 40 miles south of that (edited)

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 03:54 AM

Recons just entering him now so we'll see whats up

I'd expect even more weakening despite the cool cloud tops

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 04:08 AM

Nevermind

Recon turned around

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 04:46 AM

idk if they will keep the Hurricane Warnings, the convection is really dislocated from the center now

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 24-Aug-20 05:01 AM

...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED...

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday.

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 24-Aug-20 05:37 AM

This is actually painful to watch

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 24-Aug-20 06:00 AM

Looks like all Marco is doing is priming the atmosphere for Laura

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 06:05 AM

Marco probably a teaser for laura

Michael Carty (Plano, TX) 24-Aug-20 06:07 AM

So now that Marco is choosing to do this , do you guys think Laura’s track will shift eastward especially as the storm pulls south of Cuba?

beard (fort worth) 24-Aug-20 08:52 AM

"Choosing" lol

Laura will move west

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 24-Aug-20 09:35 AM

If Laura goes west, I will have a window view

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Aug-20 09:58 AM

marco will likely be a remnant low off the houston coast tuesday/wednesday, but it will still impact laura, and possibly get absorbed. this mild fujiwhara will likely putt laura a little further west than forecast

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 01:57 PM

6

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 01:59 PM

All TS and storm surge warnings have been cancelled

All the hype about two hurricanes in the gulf and it looks like we won’t even have two systems in the gulf now

8

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 02:32 PM

Yeah instead of two hurricanes in the gulf we will get one big chungus hurricane in the gulf

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Aug-20 03:41 PM

Nice view of some tall convection from the edge of GOES-West

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 03:51 PM

https://twitter.com/matt_laubhan/status/1297983423034855425

Matt Laubhan, CBM (@matt_laubhan)

About 20 minutes ago west of Panama City Beach. @johndolusic @JoelYoungTV @ChelseaBrownTV @NWSTallahassee #Marco https://t.co/sd4Qe97klq

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 03:55 PM

This storm isn't really impressive

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Aug-20 04:43 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 24-Aug-20 05:24 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/746013958221332532/747557153828765817/recon_AF300-1214A-MARCO_dropsonde1_20200824-2012.png

Just your occasional 494 knot wind gust

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 05:35 PM

Got hit by a rogue wave that the instruments didn't know how to process?

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 24-Aug-20 05:40 PM

a rogue wave 753 meters up? lol (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 24-Aug-20 05:44 PM

Well gotta upgrade the swirl to category twelve now clearly

3

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 06:01 PM

I was thinking more along the lines of the sonde glitched out when it got hit by a rogue wave when it reached ocean level

Zach E (Lakeville, MN) 24-Aug-20 06:59 PM

Unlikely that it was a rogue wave

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 07:03 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonMS/status/1298033053780946946

NWS Jackson MS (@NWSJacksonMS)

Tropical Storm Marco has made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight.

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:05 PM

So it made landfall as a TS in spite of cancelled warnings? 2020ing

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 07:05 PM

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 24-Aug-20 07:11 PM

Well its dead now

They pretty much are downgrading after landfall

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 24-Aug-20 07:13 PM

It still looks like it produced minor TS conditions at mostly uninhabited areas.

Def nothing noteworthy, just thought it was funny.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Aug-20 10:35 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1298085701133639680

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Tropical Depression #Marco Advisory 20: Marco Weakens to a Tropical Depression. Heavy Rain Still Possible Tonight Across Portions of the Central Gulf Coast. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 12:54 AM

Imposing hurricane for sure with its one single cloud south of Mississippi

6

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 12:56 AM

At least he made landfall at TS strength... even if very very minimal

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 25-Aug-20 12:56 AM

Definitely gonna be written off as post tropical asap

Yeah I like that for statistical reasons at least lol

Sixth named storm hit of the season already

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-Aug-20 12:58 AM

Well the tropical storm winds never made landfall

The center did basically but the TS winds were in the sheared off CDO south of the Florida peninsula and Alabama

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 25-Aug-20 05:13 AM

Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...MARCO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

7

Jaden L. (Topeka, KS) 25-Aug-20 05:15 AM

dead

GanondorfMain7606 25-Aug-20 07:25 AM

Josh Zitko(Cimarron, NM/STL, MO) 25-Aug-20 09:23 AM

Marco's landfall will always have the little * next to it

TS landfall* *technically (edited)

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 25-Aug-20 10:47 AM

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/484924724258799647/747825053986586664/1920px-Marco_2020_track.png