Stormtrack - ts-paulette-2020

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 07-Sep-20 06:43 PM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 07-Sep-20 07:39 PM

Getting its act together pretty nicely

beard (fort worth) 07-Sep-20 09:47 PM

Won't do a damn thing

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 07-Sep-20 10:17 PM

Not so sure about this one

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Sep-20 10:21 PM

Beard, you are ever so bright and optimistic... But it will do something. It will help contribute to the ACE score. Gotta beat out 2005 you know.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 07-Sep-20 10:40 PM

18z HWRF says this goes nuts once it gets past the trough axis heading towards the weekend

South of Bermuda by 126h

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 07-Sep-20 10:41 PM

NHC did note a possible reintensification episode once it leaves unfavorable VWS

Other global models hold onto this possibility, along with the HWRF

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 07-Sep-20 10:44 PM

Still probably will end up OTS either way, but could get that ACE up lol

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Sep-20 11:03 PM

OTS?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-Sep-20 11:03 PM

Out to sea

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 07-Sep-20 11:03 PM

aka Fish, gotcha

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Sep-20 10:18 AM

ATCF has Paulette at 65 mph now

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Sep-20 10:24 AM

If not for increasing southwesterly shear would be a hurricane this evening

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Sep-20 11:01 AM

Forecast peak at 70 with mention of hurricane not completely out of the question tonight before weakening

Euro is extremely aggressive longer range with a major near Bermuda

GFS basically kills it

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Sep-20 01:45 PM

Aaaand looks like shear may be tilting it pretty big already, LLC might be at SW edge of convection

That's some rough sailing for a few days but 30kt is way more survivable than 50+

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-Sep-20 01:51 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/752939037676797952/image0.jpg

HWRF wants Paulette to be a naked swirl in 40 hours

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 08-Sep-20 01:54 PM

Yeah, seems like trend on that model is that is weakens (possibly down to depression), and then has it quickly strengthening again by the end of the run

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Sep-20 02:00 PM

Wouldn't be super surprising, though will probably regenerate

It certainly won't have an easy time the next few days

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 08-Sep-20 11:16 PM

Forecast to drop to 40-45mph then jump back up to 65 at 120h

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 09-Sep-20 04:00 PM

HWRF SMASH

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 09-Sep-20 04:01 PM

I think we can say conclusively that Paulette has potential next week

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-Sep-20 08:45 PM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 09-Sep-20 09:51 PM

Rather strong agreement on potential major hurricane there

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 09-Sep-20 10:11 PM

A live look at the models for Paulette: https://tenor.com/view/donald-trump-je-sais-pas-i-dont-know-faire-la-grimace-les-bras-en-l-ere-gif-12809587 (edited)

je sais pas

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 10-Sep-20 12:39 AM

That one sub-950 going into the Bahamas is worst case scenario

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 10-Sep-20 10:40 AM

Bermuda is right in the centerline of the cone for Paulette. Forcast to be a 'Cane, per NHC (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 10:57 AM

Also saying their long range intensity forecast is at the low end of guidance and will probably have to be adjusted upward

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Sep-20 11:12 AM

Most of the GFS and euro ensembles like this as a major into berm. Sucks for them. It might even stall our for a few days

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 11:16 AM

Paulette doing some weird movements this morning

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 10-Sep-20 11:23 AM

she's got a pretty poorly stacked center, and steering winds are trailing off. she's gonna start doing weird spins, turns, circles in a couple days

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 11:29 AM

Yeah seems like the sheared CDO keeps pulling the LLC north of track. (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 11:51 AM

Pretty impressively holding on for a storm in shear essentially as strong as its sustained winds

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 12:16 PM

Exposed center but that ain't bad

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 01:27 PM

We are getting recon for Paulette on Saturday

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 01:48 PM

Awesome.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 03:58 PM

Just casually throwing up -80°C lightning filled towers in 40kt shear not even too far NE of the LLC, no big deal

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 10-Sep-20 03:58 PM

Makes me wonder what’ll happen once it begins to exist unfavorable shear

It’s likely to strengthen on its approach to Bermuda, it’s the problem of how much it’ll intensify

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 04:01 PM

According to last forecast discussions shear should peak tonight, at dMax probably, and then begin to decrease over the next few days; so if it's made it this far and remains this robust it probably won't take that long to stack again... it's been trying to despite the shear already

Reminds me of Laura not being fazed much by the Greater Antilles and Omar casually putting along in near hurricane force shear for multiple days

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 04:03 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/753699038007656518/image0.jpg

The persistent convection also helping Paulette deviate well north and east of forecast still

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 04:04 PM

Might change the amount of time it's in big shear

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 04:04 PM

It really never made the west turn that was expected so far (edited)

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 04:04 PM

I remember Florence decapitating itself by RI to a major and jumping north into a wall of shear in its first major hurricane segment

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 07:48 PM

Let me introduce you to major hurricane Paulette via the 18z HWRF

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 10-Sep-20 08:08 PM

Oh crap, that isn't actually too far out

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 08:10 PM

Literally Monday

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 09:19 PM

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 10-Sep-20 09:19 PM

60kts max I see

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 09:19 PM

In deep convection but still

Just doesn't want to die off in the shear

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 09:20 PM

It’s probably flagged

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 10-Sep-20 09:21 PM

This is absolutely gonna bomb out when it leaves shear

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 09:22 PM

Well it’s got 48 hours of shear to go

Probably will weaken a little bit

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-Sep-20 10:51 PM

Paulette now 65 mph. Peak expected to be around 105 mph now

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 10-Sep-20 11:41 PM

So she actually intensified despite being battered with 40 knots of shear

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 10-Sep-20 11:46 PM

maybe less intensification, more intensity was underestimated in the first place

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 11-Sep-20 10:32 AM

one of the things we're finding this season is that slow and steady intensification in the face of bad conditions is just as hard to forecast as RI not occurring during perfect conditions

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 11-Sep-20 02:22 PM

https://twitter.com/logangileswx/status/1304484627525111808?s=21

Logan Giles (@LoganGilesWx)

40 knots of shear and #Paulette has a mid level eye on microwave. Very cool

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 11-Sep-20 10:31 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/494079865050497041/754166137524322314/LATEST.png

Looking better

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 11-Sep-20 10:40 PM

55 kt flags in the right front quadrant

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 11-Sep-20 10:53 PM

Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 12-Sep-20 02:20 AM

I've always wondered why they issue ts and hurricane watches. Like there isn't a ts or hurricane on the way, and people should look out for warnings. Just issue the warnings!

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 12-Sep-20 02:24 AM

Why do we issue winter storm watches, severe thunderstorm watches, and tornado watches?

Same reason.

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 12-Sep-20 03:53 AM

Paulette, what are you doing??

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 12-Sep-20 07:40 AM

?

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 06:16 PM

Recon is in there right now

Huge wind field and microwave shows well defined core

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 06:30 PM

Recon finding a beast of a storm.

78 knots Flight level and still increasing on the WEAK side. Dang

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 06:32 PM

I get the feeling Paulette has been a little stronger than thought for its whole track, what a beast

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 12-Sep-20 06:36 PM

I thought so when we got 60kt flagged barbs on an ASCAT pass days ago

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 06:42 PM

982mb

Probably find a hurricane in NE quad

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 06:53 PM

And it did not surprisingly

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 06:56 PM

Shouldn't take too long if convection gets healthier as shear falls

Rather low pressure for a TS

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 12-Sep-20 07:01 PM

Paulette still seems to be a bit lopsided for now

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 07:54 PM

Still under about 20kt

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 07:58 PM

It’ll take a little bit to vertically align

Ethan T. (Notasulga, AL) 12-Sep-20 08:14 PM

Pressure down to 981.7mb

Really low for a 55-60kt system in my opinion

Alex V (Wausau, WI) 12-Sep-20 08:17 PM

It's probably been a hurricane for half a day

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 12-Sep-20 08:18 PM

I mean, drops and SFMR don't support a hurricane rn

The low pressure can be explained by the massive windfield

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 12-Sep-20 08:44 PM

Latest drop in the SE quad arguably supports a hurricane (edited)

73kt in the lowest 150m, surface winds of 66kt

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 12-Sep-20 08:46 PM

Once it finishes stacking should be good to go

Ian J. (Palm Beach County, FL) 12-Sep-20 08:49 PM

Best track up to 65kt (cat 1)

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/754503447377870855/20200912.png

4

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 12-Sep-20 10:42 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1304973086043729920

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Hurricane #Paulette Advisory 25: Paulette Now a Hurricane. Strong Winds and Heavy Rain Expected to Begin On Bermuda By Sunday Evening. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

Garrett (Hillsdale MI) 13-Sep-20 12:02 AM

New peak is 110mph

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 13-Sep-20 12:12 AM

Gonna be a big ace maker but not good for Bermuda

Sasha (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 13-Sep-20 01:25 AM

Bermuda: https://media.tenor.com/images/305bbe983d08ef78ddf2b885e08a15b4/tenor.gif

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 03:21 AM

Always amazing how many storms in the big ol Atlantic manage to directly hit tiny speck Bermuda

Max (Saint John, NB) 13-Sep-20 07:11 AM

^ always makes me think too

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Sep-20 11:17 AM

Well there's the M...

Hunter Hollman (York, PA) 13-Sep-20 11:35 AM

Yikes

Reminiscent of Humberto of last year

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 13-Sep-20 02:52 PM

Glad it goes major after Bermuda and not before

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 03:44 PM

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 07:38 PM

Recon's in there

976mb in the eyewall so far, has intensified significantly

Parker Hughes (McKinney, Tx) 13-Sep-20 07:55 PM

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305290720362848258

Jack Sillin (@JackSillin)

Out in the Atlantic, #Paulette is within view of radar imagery out of #Bermuda. The system's outer bands are impacting the island now while the core remains about 200km offshore. Still expecting the eye of Paulette to pass over or very near Bermuda later tonight. https://t...

getting in range of the radar in Bermuda

http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 13-Sep-20 08:33 PM

Very impressive looking storm but looks like a bit of dry air is keeping impressive FL winds from mixing down according to sondes/SFMR, good for Bermuda that surface winds aren't as high as they look for that appearance/pressure but of course could ramp up in the next few hours if the eyewall closes off

Calvin Thomas (Mizzou, MO) 13-Sep-20 10:50 PM

Bermuda has a really nice radar page

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=HWIND_MESO_0p6km&user=RADAR

Here's a 0.6 tilt velocity product

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 13-Sep-20 11:24 PM

Nice Calvin, that eye is just hours away.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 14-Sep-20 03:11 AM

Internet communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been disrupted due to a possible island-wide power outage. Only cell phone service is available.

62 mph sustained and 89 mph gust was the last airport measurement

96 mph gust was recorded on the island earlier

Nate O. (DFW - Wylie, Texas) 14-Sep-20 08:46 AM

https://twitter.com/BermudaPremier/status/1305464319501570048?s=19

Premier David Burt (@BermudaPremier)

Just got an update from Minister of National Security @reneemingbda. No major issues have been reported overnight

. The eye of #HurricanePaulette passed directly over the island as a Category 1 storm and we are now in the 2nd half of the storm. #StaySafeBermuda -DB

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Sep-20 08:59 AM

Wow good to hear.

Zachary S (Jasper, AL) 14-Sep-20 03:18 PM

Looking really good

Looks like a lock for major, even the 110kt seems possible with trough interaction

Ethan T [FBI] (Odessa, DE) 15-Sep-20 10:49 PM

Paulette could redevelop further down the line

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 16-Sep-20 10:44 AM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 16-Sep-20 10:46 AM

So does this mean it stops contributing ACE points?

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 22-Sep-20 07:38 PM

It's back.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 22-Sep-20 08:07 PM

https://tenor.com/view/im-back-i-am-back-arnold-schwarzenegger-arnie-arnold-gif-14795798

James K (Jeffco, Colorado) 22-Sep-20 09:59 PM

I guess in that last advisory, they should have let the storm give a final quote: "I'll be back" LOL. Think if it had come back around & far enough south to form into a 'real' storm... Has that ever actually happened?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 10:01 PM

Ivan 2004 might be what you are looking for

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 22-Sep-20 10:37 PM

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1308595955487223808

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic)

Post-Tropical Cyclone #Paulette Advisory 44: Paulette Becomes a Post-Tropical Cyclone For the Second Time. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc

And it gone