Tornado

Wind

Hail

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Thoughts concerns please post away.

Arm-chair chasing is allowed! If I was to chase this day, I would go here and this is why.... (edited)

Capping, Hail and Elevated. My issues with this system event. Per Broyles.

The OK cluster doesn't seem elvated to me. I'm more bullish than the SPC on that area based on the soundings I'm pulling from there. Cap seems broken by 00z.

Anyone see a reason to be more pessemistic?

Ask Shane, thats his default state

@Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX)

It's called "realistic."

I haven't looked at tomorrow. I'm not chasing.

I would local chase it or be on the ready to jump in and go. Other then that I wouldn't be going from state to state.

Looks like I’ll be in the county eoc for this versus chasing.

lol your in it man.

Fun times

I think I'll keep an eye out since I've been wanting to get out and chase

seeing more like hailers and elevated. Then after this the next day Moisture is going to be the problem.

Maybe will get a surprise tube? Nah... Not that lucky.

RAP/HRRR/NAM showing some 1-2 STP values in W IA. doesnt seem like alot, but the runs keep nudging slower and slower with better moisture convergence

if the RAP confirms we could end up with a 55-60 TD warm sector /w a very solid vort max just to the west. with 60 kts of bulk shear some mini-supers are definately possible.

again this all depends on how badly the warm sector gets smooshed / dries out. a really dry push at 850 could cap the entire thing until dark

yeah capping, moisture and heating will it be enough? Grungefest with hailers. (edited)

latest SREF is VERY progressive overnight, with minimum thresholds at 40% for severe over nebraska by midnight. with an MCS possible running into iowa

Hell I can be wrong. I wouldn't mind being wrong.

yeah the profile isn't great for chasing if IA does confirm, further south in KS/OK i'm not impressed, the vort max is pretty far away

yeah it's a local chase at best or keep your car out of it.

I'll get a look at 00z GFS

yeah when SCP are 9-12 but stps are only 1-2. hail party is no fun

agreed my dude.

that being said, days like this in march do often crap out little EF0-1 bull moving 60mph. omaha had a couple touchdowns a couple marches ago with similar scenario

NAM was over-progressing the low and it held back an extra 1-2 hours, just long enough to get into a negative tilt setup

hmmm, yep March. They are Finke , very. Geez one month this wouldn't be a bad to go out. Wouldn't be a break out. Would have been stay out the hail. Look for the spinning Thunderhead and watch for tubes.

One month more heating of gulf and this event.

This also might be a hint of what we will be dealing with later on? (edited)

as far as upper level winds? (edited)

there's flow.

lcl is high 700ish. ops (edited)

well 750 to 700.

700mb RH hmm not good.

I think storms will get going after dark. Will be capped.

if your desperate for storms local chase or practice.

North of Elk City any takers? lol

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) yep there it is.

probably gonna be a good first chase with the new truck for the news station tmrw

I am hoping to knock the rust off and break in a new chasing buddy on Thursday here in IN or IL. The question is will we even get storms of some kind?

I wouldn't be expecting much. Maybe a good lightning show after dark? @John Choquette (Edmond, OK) Yeah kick the dust off and chase the hailers after dark. (edited)

More like up your ally for your team and company. lol

yup lol

lol enjoy just for you guys.

large scale climatology patterns favor a VERY active early season. we'll see how it goes

the la nina into neutral shift plus the teleconnection phases looking good. only drawback is the gulf is very cool. will limit the northside

yeah what is the gulf water temps? Since that COld blast?

whatever color blue is, so cold AF

18zNAM followed the rap and slows it down agian. squall line starts right over OMA now. HRRR speeds it up and has dry line thru OMA by 17z

Right near the coast its cold, but most of the gulf is already pretty warm.

latest RAP is very quick tomorrow. has some good STP into N IA. who's ready for some LIOWA tricks?

that gulf eddy gonna be just S of texas ina bout 2 months. juicy

Moisture potential will not be a problem this year, just like last year. However, if we get good moisture return is an open question

last year we had some stupid zonal flow. merdional was not happening below 700mb

2020 was weird...

OMA's 2020 was the driest since the dust bowl. outside of a couple good early spring rains / fall rains it was dead dry. let's hope 2021 doesn't repeat

1 tornado watch in OMA all year. 1. and it was a dud. srsly

interesting contrast because in Oklahoma, my lawn mower got more use than it has in a long time. Never really got dumped on all at once, but the frequency kept the grass growing faster than I could knock it down.

It was MCS galore here halfway in between

trollowa

Never count out iowa for the hail mary tornado. Always when you least expect it, or when you think there isn't a chance. I missed a tornado by a few hours, because we already have up on a sloppy day storm.

^ 5%

Going to be interesting to see what the morning rain does to the environment today. (edited )

Lol here comes Iowa with the trollnado

RAP near Rochester, MN

The dry line and warm sector have been super progressive. Dry line clearing omaha already. (Low of 61 this morning here). The HRRR really liked N IA last night

I was planning chasing today-Sunday in KS/OK/TX just for funsies. I stayed home in case Liowa pulls something today. Kind of glad I did

Strong moisture convergence along the triple point and warm front into NW IA. Should advect NE over the day. Low td t spreads. Even a little cape could set off some mini supercells. Tor chances looking ok

WHAT!!! MN steals tornado show in March. wtf. Wish I had taken a trip home to visit my folks...

Thompson has his hand in it too, dang

Damn, HRRR is very consistent in painting a scary looking Helicity track right over the SE corner of the metro. A lot of good people live there. Likely not expecting severe weather this early. If we get tornados today it would not break the record, but would only be 4 days after the earliest recorded tornado in MN. But that was only set very recently (2017). The previous record which stood for half a century was March 18th. Man, I wish I was back home!!!

Just need cloud breaks to spike those lapse rates

BUY BUY BUY

several WRF models and the RAP both agree with HRRR. we've got CAM convergence

several 63/63 td/t station plots comign in with a solid Q field.

RAP meso shows pocket of 1200+ cape already forming just E of omaha, should overspread the warm sector in a couple hours. 45-50mph gusts here near OMA. the low level hodos are gonna be BLASTING

one concern, BRN shear numbers are near 150, that's too high for good supercell formation. will tend toward mutli-cellular, but with that much SRH even a transient mini-super could drop a tor

HRRR keeps showing a Helicity track just south east of the metro between 6 - 8 pm, tracking into WI. If that shifts just 1 county N, we could be in some trouble

do we go 10% hatched for MN tornados with 20z update?

No

Yea, looks like they kept it at 5%. I am guessing they re skeptical of the moisture. Its conditional, but I think still very possible to get a sig tor out of this, just given what the CAMs are showing.

My Point, the HRRR has been showing basically the same thing for 8+ runs in a row. Now its showing even a few more.

that would be pretty wild if it played out that way since this setup is not favored by climo lol

All the CAPE is 0 - 3km. Very large shear.

Climo is pretty far up the 'ol ladder from mesoscale. And the Meso/Synoptic scale are all for this event, which is due to start in 1 - 2 hours

Big shock, Reed agrees with my desire to go enhanced, lol.

this is a highly conditional, but enhanced potential day IMHO

i'd give this a 10% non-hatched

with a very high bust factor

several of my early spring chases in E NEB come to mind. high shear, low cape, high bust, 10% worthy days. broke my chase partner's tornado cherry on a day like this in april

https://twitter.com/nwstornado/status/1369751034373959683?s=21

40/20

i like the SW edge near fort dodge. the stuff up near mankato is too transient. unless it can get a cell to split hard right you wont get anything

fort dodge target is closest to the triple point and max mass convergence

high wind warning for non-storm gusts to 60mph in SW IA/SE NE

wow. that target is moving fast. the cells/ dryline clockin around 60mph?

if you squint real hard there is a weak meso on the cell 30 mi south of MSP

strcutures still appear to be very trasient. most tops <30k feet.

well that went from troll to yes it's happening.

i think we still may be in troll mode. look at the cells. all left split dominant. moving N away from the inflow. they are just gonna cycle forever.

starting off the midwest season with an IA/MN bust in early march. very 2021

Still to early to call it a bust tbf

I think a few of these cells could become dominant

That one near Judson, MN looks interesting

https://twitter.com/SotaStormChaser/status/1369763806348533761

Why hello

if anything can hold up for more than 15 minutes and get some right turn, it will be ready to rock.

HRRR wants that 2 happen 5 - 7 central. been saying that for 12 hours straight. all according to plan so far

I’m sitting in Alberta Lea waiting it out. Defiantly good clearing and warming

I am so jealous man!

that storm near Fairbault will be crossing into air temperatures in the 40s...

Just saying look at next Wednesday

is GFS back to showing it?

Y u p

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1369766373832806401

Latest HRRR run backs off a bit. Pushes those bigger cells later and into WI more.

some fresh smol boys on the south side of the line. looking very good

better the hell up times a wasting now.

this window will close in couple hrs at BEST.

cells near waterville, east of new prague have pretty clear mesos forming on base vel

bingo

waterville cell has the "eagle look"

MN tor wanring

i think Mike's on it of course? (edited)

i hope mike is on it. that ZDR is INTENSE right now

nope i found him he's way South (edited)

@Holden(MN) has a chance

red red

red shirts

lol

3 cells in a row on that convergence line, all 3 have very solid small mesos

mesos don't exist very far up in the cells, these are def mini-supercells, textbook

Yeah that cluster for a minute had 3-4 hooks trying to form

Lonsdale, Cannon City, and north of Waterville

that mapleton area cell looks fire

cell heading toward apple valley looking steady. good sig on vel despite ugly dbz

apple valley cell showing ZDR curved signature. here we go

Marz is on the new tornado warned cell

Janesville is about to do it

Yeah that looks good

Mike's on that one

@Mike Ma☈z (Minneapolis, MN) GO MIKE! GET IT!

Out bound just died

Did that get chocked off

gusted out, inbound flaired out wide

That was my second guess

early season storms like this love to gust out just like that. my first chase did the same thing RFD'ed into golfballs

Cell is near or on the triple point. Probably in a spot to produce, perhaps cycle, if cold air does not undercut after one or two. Or before any.. (edited)

Woah new role colors!

Looks like new circulation is developing to the south on that tornado warned cell

LOL I think the roles line up with SPC colors. Anyway we’ll see if that cell can recover. It’s on the TP but the cold air is March cold.

these puppies got beaver tails /w strong inbounds on them

tail end charley looks like it cycled pretty fast. new meso happening

Wat we wouldn't do such a thing now would we? lol

amazing how the convergence all got squeeze into that little band there. to the SE and into IA looks like CIN may be holding on.

neat im red now

Lol im the SLGT risk yellow

you know what they say about the red shirts? lol

MET's are dispensable i guess. wait. does this mean admin's are higher than a high? The mythical, legendary, unspoken, "very high"?

lol

nice royce

Castle Rock might be the next one

Admins are going to be the same colour as Mods, as per #announcements. Just gotta wait for that to be changed as I don't have access to change Admin colour.

I like being Moderate. Best chase days! Anyway both the southern cell and middle one are hanging on in Minn. TV showed a brief touch down with dust on the ground about 10 minutes ago I think with the middle one. Second hand report so no pic or screen shot. (edited)

https://twitter.com/EcklJoshua/status/1369781223011328007?s=09

https://twitter.com/norman_wx/status/1369647327015755779?s=21

Here’s a nice aged tweet

https://twitter.com/koryhartman/status/1369783670937108480

O my

That is literally a plains type supercell

https://twitter.com/weathermanwill/status/1369789905199595521?s=21

https://twitter.com/therealdylanmcd/status/1369793776202346496?s=21

Definitely violently rotating...

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1369871845390974976

Til the last drop (edited)