Stormtrack - 03-13-2021_ok_tx

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 11:42 AM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Heather B. (Austin, TX) 12-Mar-21 11:53 AM

My modus operandi in the thick of a chase is to lean out of the window and scream “wooo hoooo!” at all of the chasers we pass and embarrass Lisa. So if y’all hear crazy screeches, it’s just me saying “Hello!”

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 11:55 AM

Can I scream back?

Heather B. (Austin, TX) 12-Mar-21 12:21 PM

I expect it!

Justin | @Helicity (NOLA) 12-Mar-21 12:34 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1370427679397146625

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

11:31am CST #SPC Day2 Outlook Enhanced Risk: from the eastern tx panhandle into western ok/northwest tx https://t.co/rEAejNpVr0

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 12-Mar-21 12:35 PM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 12:38 PM

Longer track I saw that.

That Chase area is ok-ish. Just remember the Crossing areas. Choke points.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 12-Mar-21 12:54 PM

Models are up-trending a lot with this event. Traditional storm season seems to want to start off with a bang.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-Mar-21 01:03 PM

Let’s gooooo

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 12-Mar-21 01:23 PM

I will have to armchair chase this one. I hope these setups keep going into May, That is when I can get free

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 02:04 PM

event analog: March 18 1982, Sunray/Beaver Tornado

that's the cloests thing in the last 40 years i can find to tomorrow

the april 17, 1970 great panhandle outbreak is too big of an event to be comparable, and was a full month later

looking back at records, there haven't been alot of high plains madness events this early in the year since the early 90's.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 02:24 PM

Geez that hail. 30% whopper Sig.

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 03:09 PM

reed is posting that this is one of the most dynamically signficant events in recent history. he's not wrong. just not sure how well dynamics still translate to tors

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with a few blips of SCP 30+ and STP 10+ on HRRR. long track supercells /w strong tors seems likeely

i have a question....is there a vorticity zone in E NM, similar to the denver vorticity zone?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 03:34 PM

i was looking at the CAMs and they all have an area of surface vortcity just hanging around roswell into SW PH for like 48 hours. meandering around similar to the Denver convegence zone

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 05:14 PM

90% UH bubble /w a couple long tracks in pink

elevated storms likely to be occuring in NE NM and the NW PH early morning into mid-morning. these should leave plenty of outflows for cells to initialize across the SW PH and further E and NE

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 05:18 PM

Yep lots of left overs for the next day.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 05:24 PM

PWET is pretty low, below 1" for most of the target zones tomorrow. these are gonna be LP / MP cells. very photogenic

looks like we'll start with isolated supers along the intersections of the dry line and the meso-boundaries most likely. forcing is pretty strong with a wide area of -8 LI. should be enough to fill in the line so that we'll transition to numerous supercells, into a squall with embedded supercells

not chasing, but i would target SW PH early to try and chase isolated tail end charley. but by later afternoon it should be a chaotic shit-show with merges all over E PH, with the main focus on the SE PH were inflow will be maximized before line-out occurs.

april 17, 1970 might be looking like a better analog now. we could see multiple long track cells if cells can remain isolated enough

the sherwood shores outbreak in the PH was overshadowed by the later lubbock outbreak in 1970 that produced an F5

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 05:45 PM

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021031218_NAMNST_028_33.77,-100.84_severe_ml.png

Lock it in boys. Near Lubbock. 80 kts of bulk shear.

50kt motions right into the updraft.

HRRR agrees /w nam3km: lock in lubbock: https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2021031218_027_34.6--101.5.png

we got the trifecta, boys. 3 pinks on 3 models: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021031221_RAP_027_34.41,-100.78_severe_ml.png

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 06:22 PM

I'll take it, how much?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 12-Mar-21 06:41 PM

https://tenor.com/view/backing-you-get-yours-danny-devito-danny-devito-gif-13052176

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 12-Mar-21 07:37 PM

HRRR is pushing moisture further north than other models

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 08:25 PM

The big questions are:. How far west is initiation? And how far north does the front get? OK PH and SW KS could see play, as well as NM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 08:32 PM

If tonight is the teaser, the good vorticity moves in tomorrow and it's gonna be

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 12-Mar-21 08:36 PM

hope thats right lol id like my first chase of the year to be a good one after 2020 was tornado free for me

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 12-Mar-21 08:37 PM

Isolated supercell ahead of the second line in hrrr. Yes. Two lines

UH swaths have action as far north as good land and as far south as big bend. Could be a major event

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 12-Mar-21 08:47 PM

I might be camping? So if I'm not on record it for me. lol!

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 12-Mar-21 10:04 PM

That map above would be more accurate from 0Z Sunday.

That will be much closer to mature storm time.

I can still seeing it all become linear from the beginning. h5 vector is a hairline away from just that.

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 12-Mar-21 10:08 PM

I agree, it's a tossup. I'm a lot less confident of a window for discrete cells, at least, one that's long enough. I'm gonna try to stay southwest of it as it evolves.

Shane Adams (Fort Worth, TX) 12-Mar-21 10:09 PM

I think south is the best move, for reasons mentioned earlier in another channel.

Nailing initiation tomorrow is paramount.

Those helicity snake maps only mean the line will be spinning. They don't predict mode. I think a LOT of people don't realize that. (edited)

They also don't predict favorable surface conditions.

Half those lines look to be in the stable air.

We all know the best LL helicity is along a boundary/triple point. But if the storm motion is NNE across an E-W boundary, you have about 1 scan for that storm to produce before it's crossed into stable air and then you're done.

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Even if isolated sups develop, the ones close to the TP/WF/boundary will have very short shelf lives.

Palmer has the right plan for tomorrow

SOUTH

Even if the day busts, you can just scoot east and get the hell out of the way. Up north, you're gonna get slammed over and over if you linger too long along the storm front.

You're trying to get east and a 200-mile-long line is moving NNE with you, as the crow flies.

One town, one red light, and that 10 miles of gain you just got gets erased. (edited)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 12-Mar-21 10:23 PM

https://twitter.com/TwisterKidMedia/status/1370575949717180417

Twister Kid (@TwisterKidMedia)

That is quite a signal from the HREF for tomorrow. Woah. Multiple distinct uh tracks showing up. Other ensemble guidance also showing a favorable environment for significant severe weather for tomorrow. Also if you're not using the HREF you should be. #txwx #okwx

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 12-Mar-21 10:33 PM

^for those too lazy to click, Andrew is an SPC forecaster.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 12-Mar-21 11:38 PM

I wish beaming was a thing... Best of luck to yall who go. Looks to be quite the party! Hopefully it doesn't bust like 03/28 last year.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 12:07 AM

I think the linear issue is the only big failure mode. So much forcing that cap won't be an issue, neither should stability.

Chasers gonna have to rely heavily on cams to hit the early convection. That's here the magic will be. Linear mode with embedded supers will be a mess later

Not wrong about the south target tho. I would play just SW of lubbock to start if I was down there

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 13-Mar-21 12:12 AM

Not familiar with the term “cams” in this setting, can you clarify?

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 12:21 AM

Convection allowing models. So the HRRR, NAM3KM, etc.

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 13-Mar-21 12:22 AM

OH. Thank you!

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 12:22 AM

HRRR showing major UH tracks in the OK panhandle, might be a good example of not following the helicity tracks blindly. DP will be in the 54-58 range that far north

Models definitely aren't agreeing on moisture placement. Curious how that'll play out

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 12:24 AM

That's the problem. Too much forcing and no capping means things don't stay discrete. As Matt Sellars so eloquently said several years ago, it's like jamming 15 drunk guys into a McDonald's bathroom and telling then they need to piss before everyone leaves. They end up mostly pissing all over each other.

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 12:47 AM

One complication:. BRN shear values lean toward splitters and mergers. So a mess of mergers going on. But any lone splitter that gets away from the main line could become the main show (edited)

Lance Maxwell (Moore, OK) 13-Mar-21 01:02 AM

SPC sticking with enhanced for now (edited)

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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 01:05 AM

Not particularly surprised. I'm not buying the hype that guys like RT are selling.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 13-Mar-21 01:19 AM

I’m in the camp that says the messy storm mode and the constant splitting will keep the severity down. Hail and wind, sure. But I struggle to see several tornadoes with so many storms and so many mergers.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 01:45 AM

I would not be completely shocked to see a hail driven moderate.

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Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 05:32 AM

All it takes is one discrete cell, or an embedded supercell, the kinematics are there (edited)

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Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 06:14 AM

One or two storms getting it done isn't what the hype guys are trying to sell right now. And best bet for that anyway is tail end Charlie, which realistically should be the preferred target for this setup.

I'm not saying there won't be tornadoes. I just don't see there being an outbreak like some are implying. And it's definitely not going to be a "pick a storm, any storm" day. If you're not on the storm of the day when it produces, it'll be hard to recover and get on it in time.

I bet some chasers get some windshields busted by big hail today. I think there will be plenty of that.

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Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 13-Mar-21 07:59 AM

I expect hail damage for several people. I expect some get out of position due to the poor road network due to the rivers out there as well. I’ll likely be out, mainly because it’s the 1st chase day and last year sucked. I expect 2 hours of several storms, where 1 stays dominate and doesn’t get merged into. Good luck to all who are out today.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 13-Mar-21 08:11 AM

I’m seeing a bit of a weakness from 1-3.5km in hodos right around initiation time. Due to the curvature in that area, left splits appear to be favored in the 1-4km range. I could see there being splitting issues

That weakness is gone by 0Z, so if right movers survive until then its game on

Example from the 12z HRRR H9 ahead of the initiating storms

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-Mar-21 09:17 AM

Oil changed, new wipers put on, windows Rain X-ed, it's almost go time for me.

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John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 13-Mar-21 09:27 AM

Buying some snacks ahead of time and loading cameras with sd cards and heading out in about an hour

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 09:33 AM

Oh man. I'm trying to think about how to skip my birthday, have my daughter stay with my folks and head out to The Big Texan Steakhouse in Amarillo. (edited)

Why did they upgrade to MDT? They had 15% hashed area for TOR at enhanced risk.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 13-Mar-21 09:35 AM

15# came with the MDT. It was 10# with the enchanced

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 09:39 AM

Someone is going to end up getting slammed in the caprock because they can't get out of the way. That's probably where at least one windshield gets lost

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 09:48 AM

If I had not seen the SPC outlook and looked at that forecast sounding above, I would say today is weirdly more tornadic than monster hail. But that's just me looking at one sounding.

The helicity is almost perfectly cyclonic.

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 13-Mar-21 09:51 AM

That sounding to me screams left movers with baseballs pinching you between that and a right mover with a tor (possibly) and baseballs.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 13-Mar-21 09:59 AM

Yep. Hopefully people are building that into their chase plans, instead of going “storm, must get there, oh crap, I’m stuck”

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 13-Mar-21 10:00 AM

I've never understood getting destroyed by hail. Don't trap yourself in that hard.

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 10:00 AM

Cell phone sucks down around Palo Duro if anyone plans there. When you get east and south of it I don't think the highway options are good either. (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 13-Mar-21 10:01 AM

Being at this vaccination mass site for is also preparing me for the traffic today.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 13-Mar-21 10:01 AM

Get that radar, even in Palo Duro.

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Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 10:02 AM

There are some spots NE of Amarillo where I can't even get radio lol. That's when I signed up for Sirius.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 13-Mar-21 10:02 AM

Hoping I avoid all the people who stop in the road to get out and watch as well as those who try to pass in opposite lanes of traffic when it’s a 1+ mile of traffic.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 13-Mar-21 10:03 AM

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 10:03 AM

They have rattlesnake warnings all over the travel stop just east of Amarillo right now.

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 13-Mar-21 10:04 AM

LOL, rattlesnake warnings.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 13-Mar-21 10:32 AM

Its moderate boyz!!!

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Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 10:37 AM

Attachment: So_it_begins.mp4 (686.97 KB)

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Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Mar-21 10:44 AM

I'll be arm-chairing this one (still waiting for something local), but best of luck to y'all out there. Bag a good one!

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Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 10:49 AM

Ditto. My daughter has been gone for a week, birthday lunch I can't skip, etc. If I was 20 years younger I'd be there so fast. I need to save these "get out of jail free" cards for a high risk or something closer on a better day.

From Oklahoma, this would be a very enjoyable chase. You can setup at Amarillo, have some good food and chat here from a restaurant. And everything except immediately SE is accessible.

Then you're back home by midnight. It's perfect.

This isn't Dixie crap lol

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 10:51 AM

Arm chairing as well, at least until the rain lets up here and I go for a hike or something

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 10:51 AM

Is it full overcast in NM too? (NM -- looks like it) (edited)

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 10:52 AM

Yeah, visibility is like 1-2 miles

The main of my arm chairing is over though lol, target area is picked, just have to wait to see how on the money I was when reports come out

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 10:53 AM

What was yours? Mine is the Big Texan Steakhouse lol

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Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 13-Mar-21 10:55 AM

My chasing partner and I will be zoom chasing, lol. We may try to livestream it on my youtube channel. Should be a good exercise. We are looking to start around 20z, right as storms are firing. Can't wait 2 do it for real though.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Mar-21 11:00 AM

Numerical models are pretty consistent on the outflow and dry line DL intersection. Warm front WF would be sloppy, but another possibility. If not capped I prefer a farther south boundary intersection, like if the outflow stays separate below the WF. Then chase DL and outflow intersection or close. Also, with Moderator blessing, keep this channel pretty focused on weather, blockades, and things immediate. Other thoughts probably in Public Event or even Wx Lobby. (edited)

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Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 11:17 AM

Does anyone think cap could complete bust this?

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 11:23 AM

Right now, I think I'd sit near Amarillo or Canyon, and see how the day progresses

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Mar-21 11:29 AM

I think it will go. Cap might be an issue on my preferred south outflow. Warm front may be sloppy, but it’ll go!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 11:58 AM

Lots of clouding over the warm sector, but cape appears to be building on the SW side across the NM border. Best moisture convergence is in the same spot. Expecting this area to advect NE between lubbock and ama before initiation. Lots of outflows hanging around, as well as high clouds complicate things

Although best conditions for STP will be N of lubbock, that chase mode will be chaotic splitters. I would stay south and east and hope for charley

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Palmer (Weld County, CO) 13-Mar-21 12:13 PM

Starting around Springlake

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Mar-21 12:21 PM

https://twitter.com/nick_gormanwx/status/1370786915344080896

Nick (@nick_gormanwx)

Chasers watch out for a construction zone outside of Amarillo. Left lane is closed and there’s no signs. Can’t see it either because of the fog.

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 13-Mar-21 12:29 PM

Thanks to the mets in here @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) @Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) and all the other armchair chasers here for the content! :)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 12:39 PM

I haven't had a chase since N KS in 2019. Go get them for me boys.

Second area of moisture convergence forming along the NM border far southwest past the PH zone. Should advect NE into the SW PH and S of lubbock

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Mar-21 12:46 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1370793100453449730

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

11:45am CST #SPC_MD 0163 , #txwx #nmwx, https://t.co/rqgrA8H1hw

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 12:53 PM

Yup. Towers in the NM plains already going up. This is right along the moist axis ahead of the dryline.

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 13-Mar-21 12:55 PM

Anybody using Zello today?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 12:57 PM

Clovis going up. That's gonna be the trash that heads north of ama. The line near hobbs is where the action worth following starts

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 01:10 PM

RAP mesoanalysis is lighting up just SW of lubbock. SCP spiking hard.

Meso shows over 2k cape in sw PH. Beating the models. Cin eroding fast. Watch for early development

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 13-Mar-21 01:15 PM

Initiation already beginning.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 01:39 PM

Anything NW of lubbock is a trap. It was snowing in NW PH an hour ago

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 02:10 PM

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 13-Mar-21 02:14 PM

the cells west of Dimmitt are also a trap atm

James T. (NW OH) 13-Mar-21 02:23 PM

Blips in SW TX?

Those might be the ones

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 02:32 PM

Moisture and shear axis setup NW to SE from clovis toward lubbock

Stick to the tail end today near lubbock boys and girls. North gonna be messy

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 02:33 PM

Yup. And I wouldn't try to rush west of I-27 either

This is a day I like to sit a little downstream to give room to maneuver and time to react

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 02:34 PM

Secondary axis forming from clovis NE to ama and into OK. It's a trash setup. Don't fall for it

That triple point will be active all afternoon but gonna be a mess

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 02:35 PM

Vectors are almost perpendicular to the WF so that shouldn't even be a play

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 13-Mar-21 02:35 PM

+1, the entire northern part of the risk area is just going to be a total mess

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 13-Mar-21 02:51 PM

Seconded on Lubbock

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 02:51 PM

That angry cue field SW of lubbock looking solid.

Cells west of ama have solid meso structure but are over cold ass air. Hail central

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 13-Mar-21 02:54 PM

Yeah

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 02:55 PM

Nothing but left split trash. That being said. Lcls are super low. You could get a transient tor for a few minutes during mergers. Not worth a chase

New Meso disc nails it. South side of that hash

I would watch the cells near seagraves as they push NE into the moist axis

Hate to say the cursed words. But Plainview in about 90-120 mins.

Hold on folks. Towers going up NW to SE along the moist axis near lubbock to tahkka

Can't tell if turkey or legit on Sat cuz of cirrus

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 13-Mar-21 03:13 PM

These are the ones I would want to be on

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 03:14 PM

That far south?

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 13-Mar-21 03:15 PM

Just got into Amarillo getting gas and heading south and probably east

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 13-Mar-21 03:18 PM

These are about to be the game changers

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:18 PM

Hahah Norm jinx

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 13-Mar-21 03:19 PM

That's the start of the QLCS if I had to guess. Watch for something along the I-27 corridor to go up ahead

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:19 PM

100%

I would agree with that prediction

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 03:20 PM

I'd likely be on what you labeled the cop out cell lol. Planned waiting location was Tulia

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:21 PM

It's only a cop out if you're copping out. That's your target so it doesn't count.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 03:21 PM

Our man Lucas is on that one, so I'll be living vicariously through him

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:21 PM

still is going to be a beautiful supercell

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 13-Mar-21 03:22 PM

I'm real jealous. Wish I'd had the chance to go out today, oh well. Good warmup of forecasting/targeting skills

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:22 PM

Drew looking at the shear vectors across central and east Texas my guess is a pretty classic early Spring Texas-style MCS.

just a gravity wave MAUL

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 13-Mar-21 03:23 PM

Here’s the two I’d be monitoring

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:24 PM

Norm I think I would have headed for the southerly one you've got marked.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 13-Mar-21 03:26 PM

I think the ones west of Lubbock are going to be spitting out tornadoes IF they continue to March NNE

The ones south of Lubbock might just be the tiny start to the MCD

*MCS

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 03:30 PM

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 13-Mar-21 03:52 PM

View from springlake south

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 13-Mar-21 04:25 PM

https://twitter.com/TheTXWXchaser/status/1370847878013390851?s=20

Marcus Diaz (@TheTXWXchaser)

@NWSAmarillo large wedge in progress SW of Happy #txwx #wxtwitter

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Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 04:40 PM

Man. Just got back to a computer after birthday weekend. I think I'm seeing a debris signature SW of KAMA. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 04:47 PM

Those two cells SW of ama are going good

Good mesos. Mergers going on all over

Josh H (Tampa, FL) 13-Mar-21 04:48 PM

This Debris Signature... Hope it's just trees and bushes.

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 13-Mar-21 04:49 PM

Man that is amazing on velocity

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 04:50 PM

That's a TVS if I ever saw one. Whoever said canyon this morning nailed ut

Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma) 13-Mar-21 04:50 PM

My steakhouse joke prediction may happen.

This is a serious storm.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 04:51 PM

HRRR nailed this. Two rogue cells ahead of the dryline

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Josh H (Tampa, FL) 13-Mar-21 04:52 PM

They just had a wedge on stream, Bob Pack (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 04:57 PM

The lower for cell us left splitting into the big daddy. A merger would take this up a notch

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 13-Mar-21 05:00 PM

Wow, we got twins

Pilgar would be proud

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 05:04 PM

https://tenor.com/view/titus-titus-unbreakable-sweet-baby-jesus-gif-7390568

titus

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 05:12 PM

South cell becoming dominant? North cell occluded?

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 13-Mar-21 05:15 PM

North cell is back going nuts it looks like

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 05:17 PM

North cell meso is huge. But south cell has insane inbounds

North may have a giant wrapped wedge, but south is drill bit right now if that's a tor

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 13-Mar-21 05:18 PM

Those chasers need to bail east now on the northern cell

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 05:21 PM

Yeah bail east. Hard right turns on both

They passed the moist axis and will burn hard right into the inflow

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 05:41 PM

Tor warns east of plainview and lubbock now.

About to hit maximum window in next hour

Josh S. (Crest Hill, IL) 13-Mar-21 05:43 PM

That south end of the cell is going to explode

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Mar-21 05:44 PM

@Palmer (Weld County, CO) I hope it helped. I favored a possible southern boundary (vs warm front) intersection with dry line. Appears the impressive Canadian, TX twins were closer to the warm front, which usually goes first. Happy, TX more photogenic elephant trunk / stovepipe was more the differential heating boundary farther south. Plainview is that regime too. I like southern cells now.

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 13-Mar-21 05:46 PM

Currenrly in plainview. Was too far aouth to catch Happy, but I was really close. Keeping an close eye on the Plainview cell but as of yet it looks disorganized

I kinda think the south end goes linear from here. Doesn't seem like storms are spinning

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 13-Mar-21 05:55 PM

Maybe when they approach the differential boundary in a bit. Happy was right on that boundary. Good luck!

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 13-Mar-21 06:01 PM

Radar loop of the Happy TX tornado saved to the movie folder

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Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 07:04 PM

Cell near spur looking solid

We've lined out....but it's a broken line with supercells, and they slowed down a bit. Very chasable

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 13-Mar-21 07:04 PM

Looks like we could have something south of Howardwick

Yup there it is https://twitter.com/Oakhurst_WX/status/1370889043815366659?s=20

Oakhurst_Wx (@Oakhurst_WX)

Confirmed tornado is approaching Howardwick, TX! Take cover immediately! #txwx

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 07:34 PM

DANG I wish I could get some samples from this gorilla catapult:

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 13-Mar-21 07:51 PM

That's a beast. Paducah tx is the site of an historical tornado

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 09:05 PM

I would have managed ok today I think. Probably would have stayed south. This was the target I made this am whilst deciding:

Chris M. (Houston TX) 13-Mar-21 09:17 PM

whistles

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 13-Mar-21 09:37 PM

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Those were shot by my chase partner. That was on that tornado warned cell as it was approaching Claude at around 5:00.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 13-Mar-21 11:05 PM

This the shot I got of the tornado north of Lockney or NE of Plainview around 5pm 30 seconds before this I had that funnel closer to the ground but was trying to get to a spot to pull over. At this point, it was about to go back up. I did notice 5 minutes later what appeared to be a rope tornado in rain, but I lost it after 10 seconds. (edited)

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Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 14-Mar-21 12:07 AM

We were right near this on the west side.

Attachment: video0.mov (633.83 KB)

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Chris M. (Houston TX) 14-Mar-21 12:10 AM

I’m not going to lie I love that view. No scary movie comes close to a cloud near the ground, strobe-lit only by its own flashbulb

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 14-Mar-21 12:28 AM

I love it, very spooky.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 14-Mar-21 01:50 AM

Super long day got baited to the cell just south of the main show cuz we were early enough to think the main show was going to get washed out from the southern storm and then that one would go dominate. Trolled us hard but made up for it later with a Claude and Clarendon tornadoes. Looking back we did also see the initial tornado near happy from a distance so 3 overall. Good first chase even if we did miss the monster

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Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Mar-21 05:53 AM

Nice everyone!

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 14-Mar-21 09:27 AM

Quinn Fesmire (Aledo, TX) 14-Mar-21 12:53 PM

that was pretty spot on

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 14-Mar-21 03:14 PM

We had a similar outcome for yesterday, except we still didn’t see the Claude or Clarendon tornadoes. We were SE of each storm as much as we could be but never saw anything actually form. We were directly on the Claude and Clarendon storms, too, but they either didn’t produce while we were on them or they were not visible due to haze / rain. I think the only thing we did see was that Eldorado tornado.

Edgar O'Neal (Yukon, OK) 14-Mar-21 04:01 PM

Here is a shot I got of the tornado close to Hart, TX on the Tail End Charlie

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Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 14-Mar-21 04:09 PM

Aw, what a gorgeous tornado. Good shot!

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Edgar O'Neal (Yukon, OK) 14-Mar-21 04:18 PM

I posted the video in the Weather Media Section

MesoSafety.com 14-Mar-21 05:31 PM

Yesterday was a good day... Stuck to one storm and got a nice tornado out of it. Wasn't able to fully condense because of the pressure, but nonetheless it's a tornado and I was thrilled after the prior chase day...... Also met @Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) and @Heather B. (Austin, TX)

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Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 14-Mar-21 05:58 PM

“Met” - we ran to your car and started screaming hello

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 14-Mar-21 06:10 PM

CB yelling?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Mar-21 06:46 PM

lol, good see meet ups.

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 14-Mar-21 06:51 PM

Never! Despite us trying

Quinn Fesmire (Aledo, TX) 14-Mar-21 07:31 PM

Lol, that something that I love about chasing.

Lisa M. (Pflugerville, TX) 14-Mar-21 07:35 PM

I spotted the MesoSafety logo and yelled IT’S MIKE! And then we started chasing him

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Quinn Fesmire (Aledo, TX) 14-Mar-21 07:48 PM

LOL! That’s hilarious!

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 14-Mar-21 08:03 PM

You stalked him! lol (just kidding) Like how could you not miss him? lol and I'd do the same thing....

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@MesoSafety.com sorry bud you got a bullseye on you now. (edited)

MesoSafety.com 14-Mar-21 09:38 PM

I mean, I drive safe and keep to my own, so I shouldn't have any problems. Lol. In my 6 years of chasing, I've only ever had a problem with 1 person. Haha.