https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

KGWX is DOWN. FYI for the chasers on Wednesday. That radar is in on the border Mississippi/Alabama.

Hopefully it will be back up before then?

I believe it was down for maintenance. Hopefully KGWX will be up and running Wednesday. Its really gonna be needed. (edited)

very

Dang I hope so.

https://twitter.com/nwsspc/status/1371364187478224897?s=21

Please add MO to this. I am targeting the bootheal region as a possible chase target for Wed. This may likely be another big event. I think the chaseable play is the afternoon/evening storms across AR into MO.

Added

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1371494837816541188?s=20 NAM 3km loves to paint apparently

https://twitter.com/bradarnoldwx/status/1371512429121826816?s=21

Wot

Did you see Reed lol

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1371131224031440897?s=20

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1371510601659338756

i'm also considering E AR as well

i worry about the short window there'd be to intercept storms as they haul ass to the NE

I just really don't want to have fomo from this event. I am NOT chasing in the jungle. I also think the true Dixie play will be near dark anyways. I think I need to draw a line in the sand at Jonesboro. Thats a 7 hour drive, and both me and my chase partner have work the next day. But if we get ourselves a wedge its well worth it. But farther than that is not feasible for the middle of the work/school week. Thats like 20 hours total, including chasing. (edited)

when in doubt, skip dixie alley. when you feel like you are going to chase dixie, don't.

Jonesboro is also near the extent I'm willing to travel for a day chase

I think Arkansas/Missouri will be a mess, especially with storms moving through in the late morning. Mississippi Alabama looks good, but for chasing, it’s going to be evening by the time you get the storms you are looking for, and Dixie at night isn’t for most.

If this event happens like the models are showing, we will be looking at the St. Patrick's Day Outbreak. I really hope it busts for the sake of all the good people down there. Last year was Easter tho, so... ‍♂️ (edited)

hope it busts but will be out chasing

Outbreak bust for sure, but an isolated sup or three in eastern Arkansas where you can see forever with a few tornadoes in open country would be cool.

If i'm able to get out of my IRL stuff and go, that's exactly where i'll be

https://twitter.com/norman_wx/status/1371621481550118919?s=21

I'm only gonna say this once more because I know you're tired of me saying it, but be careful dude. That's a whole other planet.

I'm not going to be negative about it, but Jesus be careful, you guys. I know this region has trees and shit, but that's a whole different world. Best of luck.

Also, brush up on your French. You might need it.

Sig tor ingredients. It goes to 90. But that's the largest area of 75 I've seen since they invented that map

Thats intense. Thats intense. Thats intense.

And getting over 60 is quite rare

Large area of huge bulk shear

wow

How is it spreading it so far from the low?

Perfectly wrapped upper levels

This is a synoptic masterpiece

Conductor of the orchestra of death.

Top to bottom. 0 to 1 km SRH over 200 all over the warm sector

Bets on Day 2 high risk?

That's a high.

And it goes all day. Morning in arklatex

Lasts until the carolinas

Chase till you drop

Nam has the cap open until 6am. Expect nocturnal tors in miss,bama (edited)

So there could be the possibility of multiple damaging tornadoes on the ground at the same time, correct?

Yes. Cams are into the zone now. They show a wide area of scatters supers

RAP agrees with NAM. That's never a good thing

holy cow

This will be a day 2 moderate. Day 1 high unless something changes

Is 00Z HRRR out yet? Sorry I suck at keeping track at timing.

The main limit on the event how far the warm front can progress northwards?

Nvm 1 hour or less it seems

ngl im scared to see what the 00Z HRRR shows.

Warm front is the limit factor. I expect this to hit the ozarks hard. A high day could see storms up into the ohio valley too

Anyone know if we are in a vort max wave? Most historical outbreaks time up

MJO forecast to have a strong vort max over about 60-100 west this week. Bad sign

wow

Gfs confirms very intense vort max over the ozarks Wednesday. It's firing on all cylinders boys

Maybe a 4/12/20 event but with a less messy storm mode?

That's the 500mb vort max. Jesus it's huge

negative tilt all the way too

This will be a bit north of 4/12/20. AR, MO, TN also getting action

But honestly right now this looks better on paper

4/12/20 was an overperforming moderate. This has legit high potential

Some veer back veer but solid.

Look at the theta e on the cams and HRRR. A huge plume of moisture rolling in off the east gulf. A good predictor of dixie outbreaks

I haven't seen a large scale setup this good in years. Maybe a decade. It's got me jonsing bad. (edited)

0% day 2 high, i'll go 70/30 against day 2 MDT

Yeah I honestly don’t think day 2 high will ever happen again IMO, or very rarely (like once every 20-30 years)

This is def a day 2 moderate. But they should not bite on high until day 1. Lots of issues here

Early season, so any cloud cover or debris rain could ruin the cape easy

The synoptics are quite locked in however. That low isn't going anywhere but into the ozarks. And it's a big boy

Spann is already preparing for the onslaught of trolls in twitter.

When was the last day 2 high?

April 14, 2012 I belive

Yup. Bust central here in Nebraska

In my experience dixie outbreaks often are less likely to get an upgrade because they don't have all the traditional home run indexes that plains outbreaks do

HRRR is very for its first attempt at this event. Its not liking the NE AR play

Columbus AFB Mississippi radar is back online, at least with the level 3 data

That's only until 7pm. More overnight going east. I think SW missouri is a good spot, but HRRR has early morning storms cutting it off

Cold air funnels in socal. Another predictor of a monster vort max

Can confirm on Level II as well.

YAAA!

VORTMAX still sounds, to me, like a performance edition of the Ram pickup truck.

Dodge Vortmax, coming to a high risk day near you!

The perfect name for a vehicle made for normal chasing.

https://tenor.com/view/truck-gif-4987703

(normal chasing as in not being reed timmer of course)

Because most of us would rather not try and chase in a glorified station wagon with a body that looks like it was a battlefield in ww1

https://twitter.com/evan_bentley/status/1371585871812644867?s=20 I suggest reading the whole thread

I read it. Pretty good thread.

It’s very clear that the atmosphere is a massive powder keg right now. Just waiting for that trough to get there and wreak havoc. Sypnotic setup is one I haven’t seen in some time. A lot of mesoscale stuff to work out, however.

https://twitter.com/NycStormChaser/status/1371642867991654400

Sat map of the possible chase area.

west of I55 is flat, as you can see in the flood plains. (edited)

Idk, as late as this D2 outlook is, maybe everyone should just stay home

source?

It’s a moderate

Well f*** me. Holy crap

Think they meant AL...

dang internet lag.

100% TOR driven...

I agree with the thread that this setup is not as conductive for high end long track tornadoes. But the target area is huge and coverage could exceed 2011 with less intense tors over a larger area

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) could we get an event discussion for this coming up Thursday?

Imo....Thursday has the potential to just be potent as what Wednesday is..

Seems like storm mode is pretty messy for this one.

Both days are going to be broad open warm sector days....NC and eastern SC is going to be bare bone dry in the morning which is going to rapidly build instability

Nice backed winds as well into NC & SC

definately no 'silver bullet' soundings any day this week. lots of VBV going on. but bulk shear is plenty and 0-1 SRH is very good.

in addition. upper level support is almost perfect for a 2-3 day event with wednesday being the max

the early show will be in joplin area, possibly before noon. with an arch of storms down into AR which i think will be the maain show. best chase will be as those AR storms push toward memphies, then spread into N MS

but, due to the HUGE target area, we could see chasable storms in most of LA, and later thru most of MS,AL,TN, maybe even a few storms on the warm front in IL/KY

HREF until 7pm. expect MS and AL to fill in

this definately smells more like easter 2020 than april 2011. temps are lower, LCL's will be ground scrapping with low t-td depressions. 2011 had higher LCL's and was driven by just pure instability and shear setup

April 2011 isn't in the same universe as this tbf

but any time you get a day 2 moderate that big, poeple are going to compare it. tonight will be the big tell. if we can get some action overnight in TX/OK we'll have a better idea of how active tomorrow can get

wednesday night if we can get a big low level jet response from the gulf, we could see a very nasty noctural event in MS/AL/GA that could be a big deal

Agree on your first point

the setup doesnt' exactly scream a bunch of EF4 wedges. but it does suggest a firehose of EF2's on and off for 12+ hours

i haven't seen anyone drop at chase targets yet, so here's 3 plays. Miami OK to Jophlin MO for the noon-hour triple point play

searcy to jonesboro AR for the middle of the road play

monroe LA to jackson MS for the deep south play

all 3 areas are reliability chasable and have good road networks (mostly). should have 3 options to cater to your style of chasing

I see the Hrrr is now bending a knee to the NAM and RAP for timing. Maybe prefrontals late afternoon and Front comes through at night.

I think I’d do the Deep South play if was out. Just feel like the Arkansas play might get messy quickly, with a line of storms

Also, since I’m not going out tomorrow, I’d go out today, if the storms didn’t form around 2am.

I’d play south of the WF tonight, but chasing after dark, on what might be a semi-capped, linear type storm doesn’t sound fun. (edited)

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1371855021466214401

https://twitter.com/norman_wx/status/1371856560541081610?s=21

Upgraded to enhanced today for hail. Honestly will be interesting what forms overnight into the morning and the impact that has on Arkansas tomorrow. (edited)

gonna be a wall of hailers overnight rolling across the plains, expect an MCS into missour in the morning. should drop a big ouflow in S MO and N AR

Jaws theme intensifies

i told ya day 1 high was a good bet. ya'll owe me money

Honestly, as much as people are getting hung up on the “high or not” I thought the rest of the discussion was pretty good.

Elizabeth does good discussions

Yep. We’ve discussed a lot of this here already but pretty much was “morning storms in Arkansas, but strong shear will support wind and tornado threats. Later, there will be lines of storms with everything. And then you’ll have a potentially even bigger show that evening in MS AL”

But always love it when there’s a lot of details in the SPC discussion.

that is one of the bigggest moderates with 15% tor ive seen in long while

they have been giving really solid analysis the last week or so. def an improvement over prior seasons

What about the EML and cap? https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1371653458043023362

Storm mode is messy. CAMs think storms won’t fire until 18z or so we’ll see

Pre frontals SC don't form and you get HP messy. Instead of SC HP's.

Tomorrow will have multiple rounds, except it flip flops with 4/27 in that there will be prefrontal stuff in the afternoon followed by second round in the evening-overnight

yes I know the 3 rnds

or see it in the models.

CIN around 25 hanging around over alot of MS/AL, will likley break in spots and get some pre-frontal trash. CAPE is being pumped in from the gulf so it will keep itself alive until quite late. furhter west in LA/AR i expect storms to fire early and move quick

it’ll get messy. warm advection will help as Royce said

the fast moving / weaker tor setup is sadly the most chaseable due to it's positioning and timing. the better tor conditions will be in the jackson to huntsville corridor after dark, sadly

we could see warnings before noon due to the MC in missouri and possible early initiation in TX. then a brief lull. then cap should break fast. 1500 cape is more than enough to put out some supers in AR /w 60kts of bulk shear

i would watch even as far north as ST louis, as the MCS could help pull the warm front really far norther and outflows could help trigger some spin ups

one spto we've been ingnoring is western TN. the warm front will be moving fast there, and there could be a small cold air wedge it's fightning. CAMs show some peak time convection /w strong UD tracks

I've been watching the midTN area and noticed several models are favoring some consistent UD tracks around the Nashville area. I'm not fully confident yet but I'm definitely not ignoring anything at this point.

my little bro lives in nashville. last thing they need is more freaking tornadoes

you're telling me...the March 3rd missed my apartment by 7 miles (not close but too close for comfort) and the school by about 2 miles... if he needs anything, let me know

I have family west of Nashville. Near Dickson. (edited)

I'll be watching out for them

Yeah! know that area! I'll be here, so if they need anything local, let me know

My uncle’s house was missed by a mile March 3

ok thank you Cait ;) and my uncle's daughter was one block from the March tornado. In that apartment building. They had to move out. (edited)

sorry in Nashville

DANG! Yeah, I've met a few people since then who were very close...it's been a wild year....

Hope you fair well tomorrow.

I'll be curious to see if the warm front lifts enough to put is in the action. Model guidance seems to be leaning that way but we'll see...

WRF is far more aggressive for the central and southern UH paths' than NAM3km. 3 WRF in agreement

really good shear along the warm front in TN. if they can get a little advection from the south it will really spice it up

yep been hounding those models.

Those STP values are pretty scary for AR, but NAM does not want to initiate storms.

NAM is really aggressive in pushing it north. Oddly enough, NAM and its CAM are more aggressive on this setup than the RAP and HRRR. NAM has a very chaseable setup of isolated SC over Eastern AR. If NAM verifies this multiday event will be incredibly widespread. (edited)

It will be a big day

Guess I am chasing the morning and afternoon. Hoping the triple point (ish) in east Arkansas is a play early then I will drive east for the TN/MS boarder around highway 45 (Corinth MS). Lets see if that holds

either way its a play in the nose of the warm sector until sunset

I can really only chase until 00z, then I have to head back. Depending on how far south we get, we will get back no earlier than 2AM. I will be chasing with @Jonathan DeGraw (IN) . Going to be a fun day. We will be in a red Honda Civic with a couple of trained weather spotter stickers on the back. Hopefully we can get Jonny his first tornado!

i got my chaser partner his first tornado on a slight triple point play day. upgraded to 10% right as it touched down

can't imagine breaking a tor cherry on an outbreak day. technically thats how i lost mine but i was 8 and we weren't chasing (edited)

people coming out of the woodwork. olds met friends DMing me on twitter asking about tomorrow

18Z HRRR concerning. 0-1 SRH was forecast to be 150-200, now large areas of 300-400 popping up in MS,AL,TN after dark

AL Gov. Kay Ivey declaring a State of Emergency ahead of tomorrow's event. https://twitter.com/GovernorKayIvey/status/1371922958101446665

O H

0-1 KM bulk shear 45kts. thats not good. across the entire warm sector overnight, very not good.

STP's are not going to forecast this week. total capes are low and overnight they are very low <1500. but 0-3KM capes are above 150. which is plenty for tors with that much shear

this last HRRR run really threw me for a loop. we should see action all the way up into the ohio valley pretty early if that warm front moves as HRRR predicts

ugh. if youre 0-1km bulk shear vectors have flags, you're gonna have a bad time.

Please do not overreact when I ask this, because I am curious. How does this event compare with the OG super outbreak of '74? That event covered a very large area as well. (albeit larger)

90% STI. Very rare. High end event looking like a lock

wow 90% contours now?

The super outbreak happened pretty much all at once. This area is large due to the time involved. Maybe 18 hour straight of tors

For reference, the sti map there would be twice the size and also include the entire ohio valley at 60+

Tomorrow by all means will probably be an outbreak. But by no means a super outbreak like 74 or 2011. Easter 2020 best example

Lots of lightning in the rockies from this low. What will this foretell?

Welp I'm about to hit the road and stop around the MO/AR border

I'll reassess my position in the morning

Longview/Kilgore would be my base on this one.

There just isn't much between there and Shrevport

I think searcy is a good spot. Exits NE, E and S

Storm modes in AR gonna be nuts. Be careful friends

We will be leaving at 7am EDT, targeting arriving in Jonesboro around 1pm cdt

Why so far north?

Distance?

(and I like your city. I've spent time in West L. )

I would think 2 hours from Shreveport should be the rule tomorrow

If I was out, I’d likely sit Monroe

I prefer the southern aspect of this setup, just to avoid any messy modes in AR

What time do you expect initiation in Monroe?

(will it be too late?)

I’d expect initiation from the morning stuff to happen around noon/1pm.

Storms should be going up by that time in most of LA.

That's it I'll be staying home. Family.

Guys share HRRR or GFS runs if you get bored. This one is looking interesting.

Rule of thumb: earlier in the season earlier the cap breaks

SPC mentions early morning Tornadoes for Arkansas in this 01z update for Day 1

Was just reading that. Thanks.

Yeah, 5% now for Little Rock on the tornado risk

This forecast is now making national news (and it's not even its final form). (edited)

Good! Hopefully that’ll get more eyes on so there’s less people caught off guard tomorrow.

Been a while since I've watched James Spann live...

I’m going to be both putting this in this channel and 3-18. But; I just want to say this and only this; tomorrow and Thursday have the POTENTIAL (not saying it will) to be one of the most severe sequent tornado outbreak we’ve seen in a while. AL, MS, TN, East AR. Got to keep in mind, eastern MS & AL is all going to be after sunset. So on top of the terrain, you got HP Supercells moving 50-60 MPH at NIGHT. I’m kinda glad I didn’t go down considering that the main threat is shifting towards the night hours. Then also people aren’t talking about Thursday a lot, because obviously Wednesday is overshadowing it. BUT NC, SC, and GA is just under the gun as much as AL, MS, TN is. Thursday also will be accompanied by fast moving supercells moving through populated areas. Also with the 0-1, & 0-3km SRH we have and the thermos that the NC region is going to reach THAT TOO will also be favorable for strong/long-track tornadoes (wouldn’t even rule out a violent tornado either), which why I’m saying the parameters look as good or almost good as tomorrow that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a B2B Moderate. Point is, both very VERY big days ahead for the South and both days IMO have the same severity levels. Chasers that are going down to these areas the next 2 days....(including myself) please...PLEASE be careful...the next two days are as serious as it gets. The LAST thing I want too see is someone from the chaser community or even in ST to be hurt or killed during the next dangerous 2 days....please make smart decisions but also enjoy yourself. Not only am I worried about y’all but I’m at the point that I’m worried about myself. I care about y’all and you guys are like my online family! Y’all taught me a lot and I can’t thank you enough. (edited)

If you're worried stay home. Your instincts are usually right.

I think there will be several tornadoes in the morning hours tomorrow in Arkansas and LA. The thing is, the clouds will be low, so visibility won't be great no matter what.

I've been concerned about Norman and James since the moment they said they were going.

Luckily I stayed behind for tomorrow (edited)

But I’m going to be chasing round 2 in NC

Again wouldn’t be surprised if the Piedmont Triad region extending down into north central SC goes into a Moderate

The LCL's for tomorrow are stupid low. Under 500m, that ~1000 ft

I'd still really like to see someone post model runs or whatever they are using in their chase. I would, but I'm not going so that feels silly. I can if anyone wants though. I'll put in HRRR after lunch.

The RAP/HRRR is much less keen on the Eastern play. Keeps it 2-3 counties farther south than the NAM as well. But it all depends on what develops tonight

I’m leaving in 3 hours, trying to sleep but my brain is a bag of cats.

GET OFF HERE!

Haha I already slept for 4 hours earlier because of an ear infection.

At this point it’s just extra.

Well sleep = safety

So get some

Welp here’s Along the vort-max/triple point in southern OH

I know the feeling. I am about to experience that myself

Charleston, WV.

We’re gonna get trolled tomorrow and Thursday will pop, as is Dixie tradition.

I’m serious....Thursday is getting slept on HARD

SPC is getting better. I don't see them botching up tomorrow.

They're almost perfect now.

Yeah I told my buddy in Charlotte to be careful and have a plan.

Now you've done it

This sounding comes just south of Jackson at 0z tomorrow

That's not too crazy

Like the balloon flight though.

We have arrived at our hotel

Good luck to everyone tomorrow -- memorize bridge locations!

HRRR hodos are

@Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) that hodo is pornography

Yeah. I didn’t think it could really get much worse, some of these soundings are really getting insane now

Share whatever you guys got.

So, we are locked in for a high tomorrow. Traveling high risk. Starts moderate in AR, movies into a high for MS and AL

Chase of the day. Monroe to Jackson. Expecting a long track sig tor. Maybe 2. AR gonna be active but hard to chase

Does anyone just look at wind levels and revel at 925/850mb winds?

And the meat of it will be nocturnal.

Weird enough if they say the word "long track" you need to keep heading that direction.

Is he quoting? Because I thought that was just his own thoughts and was about to ask "wtf is a traveling high risk?"

I don't think he's quoting anything.

Was just saying that "long track" and "high" are two keywords to watch for tomorrow.

Be bad for chasing

High is usually attached to spacial coverage. More storms, more competition, more mess.

Where would you setup? I'd do Tyler and getting pissy following it in and not being able to see anything or I'd come in from the Miss River and watch it blow over me.

I dunno now. I haven't really deep-dived specific areas but if the eastern AR/NE Louisiana play is fizzing out I'd just stay home.

Yeah. It's not good.

But statistically, their tornadoes are.

The only ways to score in Dixie are to (1) find a damage path afterwards, which means you missed the tornado) (2) get hit by a tornado, which means you're an idiot.

"The only winning move is to not play"

I mean, if enough people try, someone's gonna get lucky. Same principle as whatever local gets the video of the year from their driveway tomorrow.....

But that's all it is, luck (edited)

This is way out of my chase range. But if I was a dixie resident, I would be chasing from home.

And I've never had that kind of luck.

When I say traveling high, I mean that we have a risk that instead of being high for a short period after initiation, it will move as the front mvoes for many hours

I thought that was every risk category, every system?

Kind of how every watch gets whittled away over time.

But typically risk does down after time. This will actually hold tight or grow as the front moves

Basically, tomorrow's 12, 1630, 20 & 0Z outlooks will all be high but updated to match current conditions then?

Reminds me much of easter 2020. But better shear

They will probably start with a small high, then Adjust as shit goes nuts. Then trim after 03z

tomorrow has the potential to be exceptional

Probably not but it might.

It's spread out N/S And the timing is also larger

For reference: el nino 1-2 zone is at +6C

I could see them keeping it at a Mod tonight due to the fact there will be little cap and stuff will fire early

It’s not like it matters though if it’s high or moderate at this point.

I could see this as a moderate hold then late high to cover their ass

I'm now at 75% we wake up to a HIGH

and it will be circled just ne of shreveport (edited)

I called high yesterday. Better have my money

I’m saying mod for tonight. Morning one, depending on how tonight plays out, would be the upgrade.

I think they have rules for days and it changes at midnight.

(e.g. the criteria for a day 1 high risk is much different for the criteria for a day 3 high risk which is probably impossible)

As a chaser I'd be disappointed to see an upgrade to High.

High is a curse for chasers. As a met and chaser I'm well aware of both sides.

Been chasing since 2005 and highs are a bane here and in KS

Highs are just more storms expected, more competing, less isolation. And there will be an entire demographic of chasers that only pull the trigger because "High Risk."

Reactionary fuckers.

Or there are guys like Shane who won't chase highs

I like those chasers. Stay away most of the year.

(I'm not either. It's just not the right day)

I don't "not chase" categories

But Plains Highs are what chaser dreams are made of. Dixie Highs are how chasers get paid to not see tornadoes.

Agree. This could be dangerous to the public and very hard for chasers.

Dixie isn’t fun for several reasons. 1) hard to see 2) fast storm motions 3) the amount of deaths due to mobile homes or lack of shelter. (edited)

How many videos are there of a full tornado lifecycle in Dixie?

Does one even exist?

I guess that could be a goal. But first you have to be able to see it at all. (edited)

population density

Yep. Like I said, isn’t fun when it impacts real people. Plains are fun over open country. Become not fun when it hits a town.

All in all though, I wish everyone luck tomorrow. May you stay ahead of the storms, and stay safe.

One of my best tornado intercepts hit my bosses barn. He lives 50 miles from my home base. No love lost

Didn't know it was his barn at the time. But karma

It's all stp porn at this point. Sick

This isn't even a forecast anymore, it's a highlight reel.

HRRR showing and active morning in the delta up to Memphis. With more isolated action in the bayous

Monroe to Jackson to huntsville. That's the big show. The MO And AR action is the chase.

Throw HRRR out at this point

Mixing is absolute BS and the warm sector opening too

Sadly only 1/5 of that ensemble is HRRR. Rest is wrf and nam (edited)

Lol autocorrect making WRF into wtf

That's by far the most horrible thing yet

HRRR is ten times worse. Just stupid

Dfw included in most recent tor watch

With a couple of tors possible

https://tenor.com/view/shang-tsung-it-has-begun-windy-gif-12038108

T storm watch

Oh yeah duh

3k cape anyone?

warning in south central Arkansas

Union Counth

County

Not sure if its just me, but it appears to myself at least that the dryline convection isn't rapidly growing upscale.

Time to sleep. Tomorrow will be a long day. Rest well, friends.

https://tenor.com/view/gif-panthers-carolina-ice-up-gif-13169768

Time for me to decide where to go. My plan is to take I57 south, we can be at Jonesboro, Memphis, or Huntsville in 7 hours, so around 18z. (Huntsville AL would mean taking I65, much farther east) Thoughts? First time chasing a High risk, tho I will be in the ENH/MOD area. Pretty neat. (edited)

Stay outta the trees man. I would chase the delta today

They made it bigger. Tor watch up already for morning round

Those of you chasing, have fun but don't be dumbasses. You'll have very little room for error today.

Yeah. For me, especially with any kind of moderately long road trip required, this is a nogo. A hunker down and warn people kind of day.

Damn

We are headed to Philadelphia, MS

Got ya!

Man the warm sector boundaries visible on KDGX right now...

yeah...that's gonna be a busy spot soon. there is just so much going on today already with boundaries. imagine sleeping in so you could chase overnight and waking up to 3 tor watches at 9am

gravity waves out ahead of the texas squall. main line is out-racing the waves as well. could get some tornadic interactions soon as rogues fall into the line.

the low-level showers coming off the gulf this morning are a very bad sign. LCLS are super low we already have 2k cape despite the showers. cams firing off rogue supers in that warm sector zone between jackson and birmingham

round 1 around 3pm, round 2 after 6pm. long track violents possible. this is looking like it could be one of our worst since 2011

at or around dark, SRH, bulk shear, and 0-3km cape will be close to what we had in 2011, with a similar area under the gun. (400SRH+, 45kts+, 200j/k+)

I would hold off on the 4/27 comparisons...the cape is nowhere near as insane. 4/27 was a plains instability with dixie shear setup and it's a major outlier in history.

PDS watch coming for Mississippi Alabama. Seems like the HRRR and those early storms look right. We’ll see if people move east towards eastern MS or not.

Cape is decent in eastern MS currently.

SPC went 45 sig

strong moisture convergence in the S/central AL/MS zone in question. 2nd area of good conv is just ahead of the main line in NW MS near memphis

temps in the upper 70s and near 80 now pushing in from the S into the target zone. 2500 cape on RAP meso, still increasing. CIN holding on barely

Yep. That’s why I’m interested in if people will chase this part or wait for the main show at 4pm

CAMS were showing the cap breaking and a handful of supercells formign in the mid-MS-AL zone within the hour. radar returns are starting to fatten up a bit

Stay safe and have fun guys!

If we are at 50k tops right now, 3" max hail size sounds conservative.

with moderate cape values and lapse rates that aren't insane that might keep it below 4

SCP values over 10 starting to spike on RAP MESO in central MS

Arkansas is a washout so I just crossed into Mississippi near Lula.

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1372225519878541313?s=19

we had mud-rain here earlier this week from the dust blowing in from mexico / SW texas. likely still alot around and aloft

Deep CC drop on the tornado already wow

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1372235351968804868

Selma cell looks really good on radar

Question, what's hampering the cells that developed near/SW of Birmingham? I've noticed strengthening mid-level winds but it's as if none of it's carrying down to the surface.

they are right on the edge of the unstable air, there is a little heating differential boundary there, and they might not be rooted

wow, i wait 15 minutes and suddenly everything on jackson radar looks like its about to drop a hook

looks liek the cells are rooting now. mesos appearing

We are in the MO bootheal heading south, trying to decide what to do. The line of storms is really far east already. There are some prefrontal cells near memphis, but I am not sure if those are the play. I think dodge those and keep heading south to pick off the cell in SW AR. But I am not sure.

That's rough. Probably too late?

I am thinking maybe

But not sure

If you're committed, South for sure.

Yea, we are going to chase till we have to leave

get into NW miss. best option. or far south west TN as the front arrives

Yeah, I think the eastern LA western Mississippi is still the play.

They just dropped a PDS watch, goes till 6pm cdt. We will setup south of Memphis and try to pick the cells off as they come. There are only a few river crossings, so we will likely stay on the MS side. Not as wide of an area, but at least we will not be trapped against the river.

some pretty noticable CC depressions on those 2 cells in W AL. long radar trails behind them. not a great spot in between the sites

1 of those 2 is the same that already did damage in E MS. so CC drops from debris verifies

RAP meso showing area of interest in NW MS. SCP's spiking. capes near 2500. over 3000 S of jackson

using my trusted 'follow the moisture convergence' rule. next areas to go should be NW MS, then the cold-core from E OK down into W LA. the squall has over-played the front and left that area ready to pop again

We have a decision point coming up in Memphis. Continue south into NW MS, or roll the dice on the cold core setup. We are 30 min north of Memphis.

HRRR still has initiation after recovery in E AR, big UH. crossing the river around 6pm

the cells in N AL that weren't doing much appear to be back-building toward the SW, joining/merging. new mesos formed

cell in W AL near the border is spinning ont he front side /w clockwise rotation. a left splitter

blazing fast movement, clear CC signature

I’d go south. Either way front gonna catch ya. MHO

^

tor warn up near tusla for the cold core

James got another one

LETS FUCKING GO BABY

theres about 3 cells in that area that all look good. lots of CC drops. hard to tell if hail or debris in many of these. cells are small and moving so fast / far away from radar that velocity data is horrible

storms W of tusca on the border have their own MCV going. check it out on velocity

cell W of birmingham has a very solid meso now

it's right spliting hard. CC drop. zdr curve, the works. vels are low for now but worth watching

tor warn for birmingham now

Some could have stayed in OK and chased.

One SW of Tulsa, one NE of Tulsa on top of the radar site.

I'd rather those just stay in OK lol 2011 was not a fun time to be living near Joplin.

confirmed tor near tuscaloosa

due S of town, moving NE, will go through the S/SE side of town

I feel like I’ve seen this story before.

none of these cells are particularly impressive like 2011's cells. most of these so far are fast-moving half-supers, pretty small mesos, velocities below sig range so far

fingers crossed it stays that way

velocities pick up on the tuscaloosa cell. should pass just SE of town

Yeah, it’s on the ground.

2nd storm just SW of tuscaloosa forming now. has good meso. will go right through town if it holds up

cell due south of tusca about 50 miles is HUGE. monster signature

tusca tornado reported large tornado by public...

I would not want to be in Brookwood in a few minutes

Damn every cell I was on in N MS shit the bed (edited)

2nd tusca cell now warned

couplet passsed right over town. not sure if hail or debris on CC

man these storms got messy. Got to stay south on these, can't see the nados that happen. Also, west. (edited)

LA cells firing now, moving into MS for round 2

brookwood cell with obvious debris ball now. moving N

We are in Clarksdale MS, bout to turn East and head off the cell forming over Yazoo City.

good luck, watch for the left splits. you're gonna be running straight into the bear cage from teh N

2nd warned tusca. cell throwing CC shade now

our plan is to cut in front of it and position for intercept at a clearing on the SE side

best looking cell today is in N AL near russelville. great shape. good structure

john humpress stuck E of tusc due to downed trees

cells on the MS side starting to show some spin

cell that caused huge tree damage E of tusca heading right into birmingham now

appear to actually be 2 mesos int hat cell. a weaker one moving more N closer to birm. and then the big daddy

cell is getting even better organized. motion will take it into NW birm

ZDR hole. CC blue spot. birm cell looking like bad news

returns comign back at biological - tree debris/bugs, and appear to be being pulled downstream

velocities just took a crap. may have gusted out

PDS warning for choctaw county

Yeah me and my friends sat on the cell near Silas AL then called it in

chris conley appeasr to have himself a wedge

Anyone in MO?

That's near the ozarks right? I wouldn't want to be down there

Hell of a ball there

Big vort on that puppy. Nasty one

Parents live right here. Pretty concerned.

Wx radio in the big rig got quite the workout as I went through there. I was past SGF before the storms crept up to I-44 though

Looks like we really lucked out today. Lack of early CIN let the warm sector fire before it was primed (edited)

I’m in MO. I was just on the wrong cell. I was just down I-49 near Anderson. That tornado warned storm had a warning for a very long time

I44 was a mess. People lined up on the sides of the interstate and under every overpass there was from springfield to Joplin

Still a good number of very significant tornadoes

Warrants a HIGH but probably not a 45% hatch

I still maintain a 15% hatch would've covered this event given the lack of long track or violent tors, we saw some significant ones for sure but none of them were long track or, thus far, seemed violent. There was an interesting discussion in the vc earlier with @Austin | (Grand Forks, ND), and I talked to Sam Emmerson and he verified what we were thinking - a lack of mid level flow prevented deep rooted, long track mesos and prevented a lot of supercells from dropping stronger tornadoes often for long periods. The effect as seen on the soundings can be seen as the difference in the sfc-1km and sfc-3km shear and srh. The difference between them was null or even backwards in some cases, and the veered-backed-veered wind profile that arose as a result was a storm killer. We saw some stronger tornadoes develop but it seemed none of them got truly violent, which makes sense as they weren't able to maintain the mesos into the upper levels of the storms and were only intensifying based on the surface conditions alone. Also explains why they were relatively short lived and we saw nothing long track during the event.

I will say, I generally stopped speaking in public events as it felt like there were many people who were cheering on the event, and even further, people who were shouting me down for saying the event wasn't as robust as expected. Calling this a bust is irresponsible, but it didn't perform to expectations, and the fact that me calling that out once we understood the wind profile and failure mode was annoying and prevented better analysis and conversation on the event and what we can learn from it.

Ultimately, if you believe a high verified, that's fine as it's all subjective and that's arguing semantics rather than anything productive that's actually going to teach any of us how to better handle, forecast and track these events.

Silas tornado goes brrrrrrrr

How long was the silas tornado on the ground?

Not sure, have the complete genesis of it though

I mean iirc it lasted about 20-30 minutes, and I haven't seen ef-4+ damage yet; obviously that can still change

I like jokes as much as the next guy but this is StormTrack, not Reddit and this is Target Area, not public event. I come here for detailed breakdowns and in-depth analysis that I can’t get anywhere else. I found Sam’s comment to be insightful and the “Silas goes brrr” response to be inappropriate for this channel. Let’s hold ourselves to a higher standard in here. (edited)

im in the camp of convective outlooks don't matter to the public as much as impact based communications at the wfo level

convective outlooks are primarily used for internal collaboration and external services with core partners like emergency managers

at the end of the day, a discussion about if the high risk "verifies" is going to be a matter of objectivity. Verification is mainly just used for how to improve services, what went right, what went wrong, what can you do better

and i can assure you after every event that includes messaging

We had a lot of cells today in rural poorly scanned areas without alot of chasers. Would bet we missed a lot of touchdowns in forest land that we won't know about until survey hits, or never

with all this said, i think the high was spot on with what we knew

open warm sector definitely did a lot better than i anticipated

im also almost never a fan of weakly forced warm sectors so im usually bullish on them

That being said, we got lucky today. The VBV and that early CIN erosion saved it from being worse. Lots of tors, forecast was pretty accurate. No fatalities today? Good day

yea the only real issue with the outlook was central MS was a whiff

great reminder that we still got a long way to go in meteorology

Yeah the AR and MS zone was a fail. The warm front goes thru and it was unstable....and nothing happened. 850 never got going (edited)

the day im not amazed by the mysteries of the atmosphere is the day i retire

I was shocked at how well the tors in AL produced very obvious debris sigs. And you could see the debris move and fall out over time. Don't see that around here in the plains with such clarity

I don't disagree with anything that's said here, just want to add on that it seems like there were a lot of misinterpretations of the CAMs leading into this event...I didn't really anticipate MS doing a lot (further north, that is) as most of the sups and environment was being trailed directly behind junk convection

Some great footage today too. I'm impressed. Keep up the work boys

when that shows up on the CAMs it is almost immediately a red flag in my eyes

I try not to put an overreliance on CAMs

its easy to fall down that hole

The southern MS cells not doing much wasn't something i figured out until austin went through the soundings in VC, thanks for that by the way

Yeah we are spoiled now. I remember when I first started chasing it was RAP and NAM or bust

the HRRR has been nailing events recently, and I actually think it did a really good job handling today; a little interpretation on the MS storms to be found

also if you use cams only it is very easy to whiff on important features

well that's always the risk and why they need to be taken with a grain of salt rather than literally

there's a lot to be interpreted from the CAMs but i see a lot of chasers take them literally and it leads to missing forecasts

Still gotta stick with:. Chase the ingredients, not the cams

Agreed. The cams are a tool, not a forecast.

Cams were awful today

Our forecast relied solely on AFD’s

Last night when the runs showed the 850 winds pumping hard from the gulf into AL I think we all knew something was up and today would play out different. Still surprised MS failed that badly. But there was alot of stability behind that MCS

Yeah there flip flopping on today too

We threw them out around 10 P.M Tuesday

I don’t know what to do

Chase NC tomorrow, or stay close to home and do upper ohio valley

I’d go to NC for tornadoes

NC looking like hot ass recently

I would put the HRRR as an exception to that today...other than supersaturation last night, it actually was fairly accurate to the play of the event outside of the MS cells behind the rain shield. It pointed towards the AL warm sector cells being the primary threat

But your chances for visibility are dog

Maybe I'm misinterpreting it, but that was my observation as I was looking at the HRRR this morning...junk convection to the north, discrete sups to the south, frontal sups not doing a lot was pretty much what I saw

Hrrr isn’t hardly even convecting in NC but convecting supercells in Ohio but the soundings look bad in OH

I’m about to lose it

wanna move this convo to #03-18-2021_ga_sc_nc_va ?

Chase the ingredient. See u in greensboro

Wrong thread (edited)

I still can’t get over that drone footage Reed Timmer got from that one supercell that was so much of a ground scraper it literally had what looked like tentacles flowing into it at the surface. This is nuts.

Pure DOMIN8ING

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBMX&e=202103181728

Preliminary high-end EF2 for Chiliton county

@Jonathan DeGraw (IN) and I chased down in MS yesterday. We had a cell that we thought was going to do it, formed over Yazoo city, but it never got going and split then fell apart. I was reflecting on the drive back the same consensus that yall came up with, VBV and messy storm mode really acted to hold this event in check. The PDS tor watch in LA/MS was a total bust. The moisture and instability was there for the cells to fire behind the first wave, but I think the low level winds were not as good then. The LLJ just couldn't get going again in MS.

https://twitter.com/StephenQ3340/status/1372622038758793216

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSHUN&e=202103190000

https://twitter.com/spann/status/1372931499633311745

oh sparks

Did mob release a rating on Silas yet

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1373056425832935424

Probably 40-50 small tornadoes by the time they’re done IMO

This graphic doesn’t even include the Silas tornado it appears

https://twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1373129801180053506?s=20

Prelim EF2 with a 400 yard width

Probably went close to 50 miles

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