https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Thanks Glen!

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) you going to be chasing Thursday? I may be down in south central NC

Got a feeling that Thursday could be huge as well

Yes I might be to on Thursday? Might be a day not stay in one place. (edited)

Yeah...I think Thursday has a decent shot of going MDT

tbh

Looking a lot like MS/AL; big open warm sector, with good shear and that open warm sector will allow thermos too keep on building

I could skip Wednesday for Thursday?

Shear is high here.

: (

yeah i just got up.

Also one thing I’ve been liking about NC

Is how much your winds are backed in a broader area along Central NC

OH, KY Triple Point setup?!?

Sounding in Southern OH near the low

"Storms should increase through midday west of the mountains across parts of eastern Kentucky/eastern Tennessee ahead of the synoptic system. Relatively low-topped storms -- and local risk for all-hazards severe weather -- will likely evolve."

Man, if this was on a weekend, instead of a single day off, I'd go.

Honestly we could add KY/OH/TN into the mix

That 5% extends into southern Ohio and KY

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

ping @Norman Smith (Racine, OH)

Oh I was seeing if you could add a few more states in the title

Let's see if they enlarge it. Next update coming soon. I'd hate to do it and only to see it go smaller.

https://twitter.com/forecaster25/status/1371916198196166657?s=21

I swear NC is getting hella slept on

Save some for SC

I’m going to be both putting this in this channel and 3-17. But; I just want to say this and only this; tomorrow and Thursday have the potential to be one of the most severe sequent tornado outbreak we’ve seen in a while. AL, MS, TN, East AR. Got to keep in mind, eastern MS & AL is all going to be after sunset. So on top of the terrain, you got HP Supercells moving 50-60 MPH at NIGHT. I’m kinda glad I didn’t go down considering that the main threat is shifting towards the night hours. Then also people aren’t talking about Thursday a lot, because obviously Wednesday is overshadowing it. BUT NC, SC, and GA is just under the gun as much as AL, MS, TN is. Thursday also will be accompanied by fast moving supercells moving through populated areas. Also with the 0-1, & 0-3km SRH we have and the thermos that the NC region is going to reach THAT TOO will also be favorable for strong/long-track tornadoes (wouldn’t even rule out a violent tornado either), which why I’m saying the parameters look as good or almost good as tomorrow that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a B2B Moderate. Point is, both very VERY big days ahead for the South and both days IMO have the same severity levels. Chasers that are going down to these areas the next 2 days....(including myself) please...PLEASE be careful...the next two days are as serious as it gets. The LAST thing I want too see is someone from the chaser community or even in ST to be hurt or killed during the next dangerous 2 days....please make smart decisions but also enjoy yourself. Not only am I worried about y’all but I’m at the point that I’m worried about myself. I care about y’all and you guys are like my online family! Y’all taught me a lot and I can’t thank you enough. (edited)

https://twitter.com/vortexchasing/status/1371998204175208450?s=21

Calling this now...

Day 2 Moderate.

I said it. (edited)

Within a span of 12 hours we went from 1100 j/kg of CAPE too 2500 j/kg

Thursday is literally doing what Wednesday did at it’s day 3-2 stage

HRRR WILDIN ON THE VA/NC BORDER

I'd hit it.

sound the alarms

Gonna be interesting day here tomorrow

Yes Indeed (edited)

I will be leaving for Raleigh around 7-8

I want to say this is the first high mod risk in almost 10 years (edited)

I can definitely see this go high risk...

Mostly because of how fast it’s trending like what today did at Day 2-3

Ugh I am stuck here tomorrow lol

Storms should be rolling in around night time here on the coast

Yeah

You could definitely see something too

I’ll be in SC.

GLENNN

Hope all is well

Ya hanging in there

Hope you’re doing good nick.?

Yes sir doing great

Good to hear.

What area are you looking at tomorrow?

This event reminds me a lot of 4/16/11

Line of discrete supercells over central NC with a threat of strong to violent tornadoes

I’ll be localish. Target area right now is due South of me to I20.

Yowza

Raleigh

LRs good. LcL 500-600. Shear 300-400. Bunkers Right and Left. 42-52knts. Mostly everything is good on that.

Nah it busted

hahaha

Going to leave around 7 am

You might need to leave earlier

That GPS projected arrival time is a lie.

SPC using very strong wording for tomorrow

I’m coming from Baltimore haha. How far do I need to go and what time frame? I was thinking of just driving down 95 tomorrow morning into central NC, trying to get down there by the early afternoon

The other option is leave tonight and sleep in the car somewhere further west so that I can chase the early stuff as well

I’m really pumped

Going to be roughly the same volatile atmosphere as what southern AL and MS had

Wouldn’t be to shocked if we see a High Risk either along the WF/WS in Greensboro through Raleigh

Where exactly is the warm front supposed to set up?

I think In southern VA iirc

I’m just going to play the northern WS near the WF

Ummmm now I’m debating that vortmax

I see nothing along the OH/VA border. IMO the only play is the Carolinas, and even that is messy how I see it.

https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu/status/1372377567827726340?s=21 looks like I may see Reed

Target area for tomrorow

Tomorrow*

Was thinking the same thing

If you want any kind of tornado it’ll be down there

Idk

Congrats on your first tornado James.

Things are in place at the triple point....

NAM NEST and HRRR for the past several runs is downgrading the CAPE in NC

Truly, bro. Congrats! Definitely a big day.

@James T. (NW OH) What tornado did you get? I'm sorry I am late to the discussion.

https://twitter.com/jtmediaoh/status/1372344717556453376?s=21

Thanks btw you guys. Really appreciate it.

There ya go. The right channel

NC/SC actually seems like it's going to overperform rather than underperform. Lots of shear in that area, anything that remains discrete could be very strong

Think they stay mod?

yes. storm mode is an uncertainty still

Then again, I thought they would stick with mod last night so what do I know

I can’t see them going high after today’s underperformance (edited)

meh, it wasn't a bust really

Yeah I used the wrong word

Hit edit immediately lol

wasn't a 45% verification but there were definitely sups and solid tors

But short range looks ass

i mean while in the other channel i defended the HRRR, remember that it needs to be used with interpretation

Hardly any good cape (1500 max) and now HRRR won’t convect or NAM 3k

if the ingredients are there, try to figure out why the model is spitting out what it does and if the output is reasonable or not

Commit to NC for the chase. I would favor a little south to start incase it fires early again

Not sure how storm mode will go over time, NC likes to go upscale with embedded fast

Gonna be a messy chase but tors are tors

@Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) thoughts on the triple point?

In OH

I haven't looked at OH enough yet. Just remember that the CAMs aren't meant to be taken literally, rather interpretation. Look for ingredients, CAMs, and everything else together to figure out where you want to go.

Well look into oh and give it some thought...

I’m curious on what you’ll say

I'm about to sleep or I'd look it over myself and see what I think, but as is I think NC is a very good setup atm...whether it's QLCS or supercell

I would but I gotta wake up at 7 am again

Lol that’s exactly where I’m at haha. I made it to Burlington. Now time to sleep

Triple point magic in Ohio be there.

Currently smack dab in the middle of the MOD at Elizabethtown, NC

Heading out towards Whiteville NC this afternoon

https://twitter.com/norman_wx/status/1372567503801618432?s=21

Moderate risk dropped :/

Yup

Still a 10% sig tornado.

Yeah I am going to hold off on chasing and see what happens here

Save some money on gas lol

Im out.

Heading to Greenwood

surface low detached from the upper low. no longer stacked. surface is all the way up in WV now. upper still over western KY

Near Winnisburg, SC.

As good as it gets in Dixie.

Ocean wedge

lol it never produce. Just the wall cloud.