Stormtrack - 03-25-2021_tx_la_ms_al_ar_tn_il_in

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 23-Mar-21 08:03 AM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Storm Prediction Center Mar 23, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunders...

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 08:10 AM

Thinking about heading to Central TN Thursday leaving early Thursday morning

Going to be a very widespread event

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 23-Mar-21 08:11 AM

Linear mode.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 08:11 AM

This has also been trending north too

If it goes linear and no supercells out ahead of the CF, regardless is going to be a huge tornado threat

Especially with that 0-1 km Helicity

Sheeesh that LLJ

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 08:33 AM

This is what Grantham said this morning. Still model uncertainty but I think significant threat regardless.

Euro is downright scary. GFS is still higher threat regardless. CAMs should give us a better idea today, NAM 3km comes into range this morning, HRRR tonight with the 00z run, hopefully iron out the mesoscale details better

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Mar-21 08:51 AM

Another Dixie chase that will require you to be in position by noon, as storms will fire early. Still looks a tad messy, but we’ll see as higher resolution CAMs get into play if the morning storms stay far enough north into Tennessee to clear out Mississippi.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 10:24 AM

Woo-wee South-Central TN

2

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 10:55 AM

I'm seeing 2 capping inversions at 850 and 500 mbs in MS on Thursday, not sure what it means for convection but seems like a failure mode atm...

Seems like more north they both get eroded which tells me messy convection to the north and possibly supercells to the south

The capping inversion in alabama is really strong and killing prefrontal sups as they cross the border in the current run, meanwhile MS is looking at 2 rounds of convection regardless of mode.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 11:02 AM

Really think we could see a broad messy storm mode in general...QLCS or not, that 0-1 KM of SRH will support sig tors in a QLCS line

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:05 AM

I mean I'm seeing some high supercell composites and a decently strong cap further south, and with shear profiles that could definitely support more discrete convection

I think the northern part of the risk area is going to end up a mess like last week

In fact the cap is doubled up which could even just kill the threat in southern MS to begin with

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 11:08 AM

I’m going to play south central TN

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:11 AM

I wouldn't recommend...even if there is threat there, the extremely messy storm mode and fast storm motions will make storms both dangerous and hard to chase

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 11:14 AM

Going to be a cluster fuck anywhere you go....if I was a plains chaser I wouldn’t be going down....

2

I’m only going down because I’m use to the bad terrain

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:15 AM

I would recommend central MS. You can see initiation and choose to dip south out of the mess for possible sups or chase the storms through northern MS

2

James T. (NW OH) 23-Mar-21 11:15 AM

I’m passing on this setup

This team unlike Wednesday storms will be grunge

And fast

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 11:18 AM

central and southern MS could see round of warm sector sups as cap erodes around early afternoon, going over the border into Alabama storms encounter cap and weaken pretty quickly tho, storm mode to the north probably good initially before becoming linear

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:18 AM

Yeah, super low LCLs are going to make this very difficult...with storm motions around 60 mph. Chasing anything besides discrete convection is going to be extremely dangerous

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 11:18 AM

Idk I need to get out of the house....been depressed on top of my step dads dad and grandmother passing 2 days ago, bad vibes from everyone in the house....I NEED to get out

Storm chasing is the only thing that keeps me motivated now so

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:19 AM

Central MS is the play. You'll get to decide early where to go and won't have to go far to find the storm you need

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 23-Mar-21 11:20 AM

^ If the north storms squall out pretty much instantly, you'll have the option to dip south, vice versa

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:21 AM

3200 cape and 450 0-1 SRH on the MS/AL border at 21Z is pretty insane but with no capping inversion I wonder what we could see

The NAM is favoring a pretty weak cap and the Nest is favoring a pretty strong one...a lot of uncertainty still

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 11:23 AM

Yeah but you need to be in position by noon-1pm if you go for the southern storms, storms will be ongoing by 1pm along the MS/LA border if NEST verified

Storm mode initially actually looks decent either way you go, northern mode will get pretty messy before long tho

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:26 AM

I actually favor the mode a little more on this setup than last week, outside of AL

There's a lot of uncertainty but I'm seeing much more favorable mid level winds and if the cap stays as strong as the NEST wants it to, the mode will be favorable

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 11:38 AM

Still seeing some of that VBV further south. Longer track stuff might actually be further north if mode stays discrete long enough

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:53 AM

I see it a little bit but not nearly as strong as it was last week. Remember last week it was basically moving BACKWARDS through the sounding which was killing every mesocyclone

MS/AL border...that sounding on the NAM at 21Z is absolutely crazy

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 11:55 AM

Already seeing 90s on the SREF

5

Probably won't be as big an influence. Am really concerned with this setup, LLJ coinciding with peak heating is a bad recipe

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 11:58 AM

The variance in the mesoscale is still something to be seen. The NAM 3km wants a double capping inversion in the warm sector and the NAM wants no cap, both of which would be potentially major failure modes.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 12:31 PM

But the middle ground is a recipe SUPs

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 23-Mar-21 01:33 PM

Round and round in Dixie we go. What’s the failure mode? Nobody knows!

For real though Thursday could be more significant than last week ended up being. Doubt they pull the high risk again though lol

William Frogge (Memphis TN) 23-Mar-21 02:04 PM

Ill be out in it again

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Mar-21 02:14 PM

If you chased last week and have time this week, you should definitely be back out.

There’s different issues compared to last week, but this one seems more favorable for longer tracked tornadoes. The storm motions though are going to be quick.

Although, I’d argue storm motions in Dixie are always a problem.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 23-Mar-21 02:16 PM

yeah i cant think off the top of my head a dixie event that didnt have fast storm motions (edited)

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 02:18 PM

yea i got nothin in term of failure modes outside of missing the timing

shear vector directions are so good too wtf

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 02:31 PM

My failure mode is that my car needs an oil change after last weeks long drive...

1

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 02:37 PM

dis be what we call high confidence in the forecast

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 02:39 PM

They going to go high again if this holds you think?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 02:40 PM

Idk I could see a Day 2 MDT

@Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 23-Mar-21 02:47 PM

Day 2 mod likely. They don’t like high unless they have a lot of confidence, which is how it should be. You don’t have to have 0 doubt about strong violent tornadoes, just 0 doubt that multiple tornadoes will happen in order to meet the thresholds on the tor %s

And with the messy modes, questions on cap, going moderate and holding for more consistency is fine. I also argue that whether it’s enhanced, moderate, or high is pointless in the grand scheme. None of that has to do with danger, just the number of storms and confidence.

1

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 02:51 PM

fwiw the 45% did verify lol

barely

i dislike the terminology used by SPC

wish theyd go to numbers but then again its mostly only for EMs and WFOs

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 02:55 PM

Is that where you're staying?

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 23-Mar-21 02:55 PM

we were actually talking about this at our office last week lol

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 02:56 PM

biggest issue is people mix up moderate and enhanced way too much

marginal and slight were mixed up quite a bit too

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Mar-21 02:57 PM

I honestly miss the old days, especially the good ole "See Text"...

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 23-Mar-21 02:58 PM

within our forecasts on our social media pages i changed the risk levels to low moderate high and extreme going green, yellow-orange, red, and pink respectively to help make the messaging be more clear

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 03:00 PM

@Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) for failure modes, we were discussing earlier the NAM 3k forming a doubled cap and the NAM forming no cap. The variance is uncertainty for sure and a double cap would be a massive failure mode for sure

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 03:01 PM

how is the cap forming

subsidence in the layer, advection of a dry layer aloft etc.?

also two capping inversions doesn't seem possible considering a capping inversion is the definitive top of the boundary layer

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 03:03 PM

I mean what I meant is that I see two separate inversions on the sounding, one at 850 mb and one at 500. That seems unreasonable to me personally but I don't want to discount it either

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 03:04 PM

ehh once you're at 500 mb you should have a pretty robust updraft at that point

i can't imagine an inversion at 500mb would be subsstantial enough to inhibit something that has blown past the LFC

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 03:05 PM

I mean the NAM is showing no cap at all...not saying that is the failure mode, but that there is definitely a lot of uncertainty on mesoscale features and even mode at the moment

I would think we're almost certain to see a significant level of risk at this point though

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 03:07 PM

i have p high confidence in a high impact event

850mb winds are intense even early on over MS

with almost minimal crosswise vorticity

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 03:08 PM

Much stronger mid level flow as well on this system, and the strong lower level winds means airmass recovery can happen quick even in the event of junk convection in the warm sector

Compared to last week*

By the way, something I learned last year regarding a lack of helicity tracks. Helicity tracks are vertically integrated, so if a storm is leaning forwards you won't see a helicity track. Just a little quick tip for those of you who look at those

3

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 03:16 PM

We'll have more info soon, but almost all of MS is pretty much under the gun for this event. Just like last week, could be 2 or 3 rounds of tornadic storms for some areas.

It's hard to pinpoint where the highest risk would be, especially because mode is still kinda questionable.

1

Michael C. [Memphis, TN] 23-Mar-21 03:29 PM

There are two ALs in the channel name..?

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 03:30 PM

Bro, double or nothing

5

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 23-Mar-21 03:39 PM

Double the AL, double the low-LCL grunge.

2

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 04:14 PM

4

Lock it in lads

Holly Pajak (London, ON) 23-Mar-21 04:15 PM

sweet!

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 04:17 PM

This post is ironic considering the conversation we just had in the public event channel, lol. But a few well placed profanities are not the worst thing that can happen.

Go get 'em bud! But please play it safe and if you can try to caravan with some more veteran chasers.

4

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 04:36 PM

+1 on the caravan part, fast storm motions, low LCLs and not so classic cells are a very scary combo. Stay safe!

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 05:04 PM

Looking at these 18Z runs, western/central MS seems like the play early on. the northern storms will fire near you and the southern ones will be catchable

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 05:34 PM

Thursday looks nuts

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 06:21 PM

Thursday looking better than the last high

Still 2 days out but the supercell potential is much better

90%. Skeet

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 06:31 PM

I just pulled this sounding in northeastern MS too. Much more stout EML here.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 06:31 PM

THAT C A P E

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 06:34 PM

That contour was here this morning, and it is already expanding.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 06:35 PM

90% is the golden god. Y'all don't even know.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 06:37 PM

Here is another sounding just west of that last one, and cap is a bit stronger with more cape as well.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 06:37 PM

That’s nuclear.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 23-Mar-21 06:38 PM

I saw a similar sounding last year around easter, and keep in mind how that event preformed in a QLCS environment, and how the two dominant supercells did as well...scary stuff

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 06:42 PM

That fully blown out 0-3 km hodo is just nuts

The probs are almost all pink. So close. Get me some more cape

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 06:48 PM

That moment when the RAP wants to paint an STP bullseye 3 hours from me... RAP wants to form a triple point in SIL. First run where any of the models have shown a triple point forming along the warm front this far north.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 06:56 PM

I am starting to think a lot of people's concerns about overcrowding of the warm sector are not going to be that bad.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 07:06 PM

Do we trust that the moisture will actually get that far north?

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 07:09 PM

It’s easier to think that coming off a partial fail mode of such last week. Storm mode will be messy again but still too far out to tell exactly what happens (edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 07:09 PM

I keep having this feeling like saying "the overcrowding of the warmsector won't be that bad" or "the eml is getting more stout" or anything more favorable for a tornado outbreak is totally wrong ethically to say, especially given the high population of this area.

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 07:17 PM

We’ve had that discussion a lot recently. My opinion is that it is, but when I talk about these events now, I try to take a neutral tone or an analytical tone, I guess you could say. I’ve kinda been trying to move away from the more weenie self I used to be, I guess, helps not being in other weather servers. (edited)

I have no words for this event though. Dixie has taken event after event the past 2-3 years and it’s hard to look at, not to mention the horrible things that the last hurricane seasons have brought as well.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 07:44 PM

A lot of the analogs to 2021 (1965, 1974, ...) had significant severe events in the Midwest, not just the south. OH valley may shoulder some of the burden this year

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 07:52 PM

Exactly. Everytime I get even the slightest hint of any event in the southeast now (even the lower end events) my heart sinks because of how much they are consistently impacted.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:03 PM

At some point as scientists you have to remove yourself from the human element and not let it impact your forecast. But remembering the human element is critical when you shift from forecast to now-cast

Boy who cried wolf is the worst thing that can happen from a bad forecast if we do our jobs and miss high. These folks know better than to fall for that

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 08:05 PM

This exactly. That ping of guilt of your forecasting/nowcasting will always be there but you have to remain professional and purely analyze what is in front of you.

However, you don't want to put too much stock into what you have to say because then it goes to far and the public goes haywire, which can result in more injuries than necessary. There is a very small line you have to stand on in order to keep the public the most safe.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:07 PM

I was basically the only person on storm track (or the country) that nailed the pilger outbreak. Called multiple violents 2 days out. I still feel shitty that people died. Sometimes being a good forecaster sucks.

So let's extrapolate so our current situation. The last outbreak happened but was a bit of a underperform

20 something tors with lots of public attention won't desensitize the public this time around this soon. So make the big forecast. Call the medium tomorrow, at least

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 08:11 PM

Oh wow, I didn't know about that. I was talking to a local NWS forecaster about that event about a month ago, he happened to be on the way back from vacation at the time and just missed getting on that system on the way back south from where he was. He talked about how insane the ingredients were that day over the area.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:14 PM

The indexes that day were a slam dunk. Spc dragged their feet on an earlier upgrade because they aren't great at summer outbreaks

Btw, I work in finance, not weather, so my expertise is mainly as a chaser. But once a met, always a met

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:15 PM

00z HRRR initializing now ladies and gents. The waiting begins...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:17 PM

Qlcs doenst really look locked until after 7pm. Until then expecting warm sector rogues just like last time. But with much better indexes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:18 PM

With the wildcard being the warmfront storms farther north as the low deepens and travels NE

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:20 PM

Yup. Some runs showing risk up into IL and IN. Triple point gamble.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:21 PM

Its the only play I will be able to make. And I am still going to have to rent a car to do it

(mine needs an oil change or I could void the warrenty)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:22 PM

Man, winds are gonna be dumb. 100 kt 500s? Really? 80 kt 850s?

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:23 PM

summer outbreaks are hard yo

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:23 PM

iirc 03/17 setup was modeled to be strong low/upper level winds, but they downgraded day of.

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:24 PM

I think you are right Joey although my memory is trash because I can't even remember what rain looks like

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:24 PM

Summer outbreaks are hard if you rely on indexes built around kansas outbreaks. It's true

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:25 PM

oh im just talknig in the sense of convection initiation but I also live in fuckin North Dakota

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:25 PM

Royce, I gotta say, the SPC loves to hate on MN setups. I just mentally adjust the SPC levels, Moderate = high, enhanced = moderate, when it comes to tor probs.

(edited)

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 08:26 PM

I mean you could live in Wyoming

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:26 PM

08/14 was ENH I believe. We got 22 tornados, of which I saw 2.

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:26 PM

speaking from experiences with practicing convective forecasting in college, the midwest (especially the area between ND-SD-IA-MN) is really really difficult to nail down

and HIGH is something you never want to back up on

it's hard to pull back on messaging like that

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:27 PM

Yeah the summer plains are tough. I did a skill score analysis for the SPC for all the seasons, and they really shine in spring

But summer was low skill, and fall/dixie was worse than luck

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:27 PM

those outbreaks are also the most heavily studied tbf

historically....obviously theres a stronger push towards Dixie research as of late and I know there is some summertime convection research ongoing at SPC (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:28 PM

Mind you that was for my undergrad in 2006. So I'm sure they have improved

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:28 PM

yea VORTEX-SE started in I think 2014?

still a ways to go with research in those environments, a lot of these outbreaks are frustrating in that weak forcing can do so much damage

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 08:29 PM

Yeah they need to push those more, VORTEX-SE has been around for years now and I'm sure that's one of their main focuses in terms of research. I can see why.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:29 PM

Meso scale forcing is still very rough. Pilger showed that

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:29 PM

if memory serves, VORTEX-SE has done a LOT in terms of messaging

and collaboration with emergency managers in the southeast

Alabama is the gold standard of NWS-media-public partnerships

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:30 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:30 PM

One of my grad school projects was on public private partnerships for hurricane warnings. Florida nails it. Good model for tors

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:31 PM

tornadoes are a tad tougher because of the predictability of them as well though (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:31 PM

points at the 2020 hurricane season

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 08:32 PM

https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/news/factsheets/nssl-vortexse-072019.pdf This is the most recent thing I've found on the NSSL website regarding VORTEX-SE

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:32 PM

Moving forward, climate change might not impact tor warning issues, but hurricanes will likely get worse. Makes it that much more important to connect

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:33 PM

not even only that, coastal enhancement of a lot of cities has just increased vulnerabilities

not to mention sea level rise

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:34 PM

But alas we are off topic. Back to the outbreak

3

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 08:34 PM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:34 PM

Half an hour until HRRR 00z starts to spill its secrets...

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 08:35 PM

https://tenor.com/view/lotr-lord-of-the-rings-smeegle-precious-ring-gif-4732430

Precious

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 08:36 PM

Not sure I want to see it, but alas it will come anyway

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 23-Mar-21 08:37 PM

Don't think it'll be pretty, but we'll see...

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 08:39 PM

UMMM

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:47 PM

https://tenor.com/view/incredibles-bob-parr-the-incredibles-gif-7194125

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 08:59 PM

Its coming in boyz!

(edited)

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 09:04 PM

wonder where that EML is coming from

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 09:25 PM

Wondering what Wednesday action will do to Thursday. Nam showed a very active overnight

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 23-Mar-21 09:37 PM

Oh?! Central MS clearing out at 10z

Bruh

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 23-Mar-21 09:47 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 09:47 PM

HRRR setup similar to last time. It's calling for early action in AR, with warm sector showers early

Warm sector roots by 19z and tors begin. MS and AL. Sounds.... familiar

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 10:02 PM

Models are showing more of an EML in the entire warm sector now. Also, though messy, the 0z wants a more semi-discrete storm mode with less crapvection and strataformic precip, and it also wants the qlcs to form later and is favoring more of a discrete supercell mode along the cold front until 0z for the most part, which is interesting. Now to wait to see what the next NAM run wants.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 23-Mar-21 10:03 PM

HRRR Slower than the RAP, not as aggressive with the northern extent. Still plenty of time for that to change however. It does seem to be on board with the idea of a triple point as far north as SIL/IN by the late afternoon/early evening hours

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 23-Mar-21 10:08 PM

Crapvection is always a major failure mode here. I don't trust EML until morning of.

3

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 23-Mar-21 10:47 PM

EML would be fat bad

Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) 23-Mar-21 11:42 PM

Current plan for me is head to NW/ Central Western Mississippi early Thursday morning.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 23-Mar-21 11:53 PM

Ah okay. If it weren't for the terrain (and if I were chasing this in general) I would be chasing somewhere from Meridian up to Columbus MS and then east to about Birmingham.

1

Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) 23-Mar-21 11:59 PM

Thats another option as well, I have a day to decide both drives are equal distance for me.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 02:24 AM

I am curious as to why the didn't have the moderate extend a bit farther south tonight. I do expect the moderate to expand by a lot at the 1730z outlook today though.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 04:01 AM

6Z seriously uptrended

HRRR wants discretes galore

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 04:13 AM

NAM also uptrended

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 04:25 AM

That is a serious uptrend

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 05:46 AM

NWS BMX

Blaine K. (Pocatello, ID) 24-Mar-21 09:09 AM

CAMs last night went absolutely crazy last night, very concerning, hopefully doesn't trend that way on the 12z suite (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 10:23 AM

Can we add IL and IN and KY to this channel? Kind of an academic thing I guess

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 10:24 AM

Or TN?

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 10:25 AM

Wait, how is TN not in this either... This is a big event boys

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 24-Mar-21 10:28 AM

Fixed

1

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 24-Mar-21 10:30 AM

I'll be in the SEMO area tomorrow

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 10:49 AM

https://twitter.com/stormchaserq/status/1374732789187280898?s=21

Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)

Hoping this is not a generational event, but the ingredients sure look like a rare combination. If storm modes are messy/clustered, maybe it’s not so bad. On the other hand, unsettling to see pre-frontal trough in warm sector and boundaries leftover from early day convection.

5

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 24-Mar-21 10:53 AM

glad im not the only one nervous about the pre frontal trough

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 11:06 AM

What do yall look at to see things like surface troughs in the models? Also, day of in the mesoanalysis?

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 24-Mar-21 11:09 AM

SFC troughs are analyzed through pressure data and there will usually be a slight wind shift. A good way to ID with observed data is through hand analysis. (edited)

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 11:13 AM

There was a surface trough associated with the 03/17 event iirc

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 01:11 PM

Are there any chasers from the IN/IL/OH area who are not planning to drive all the way down to Dixie who would be interested in carpool chasing the SIL/SIN play with me?

James T. (NW OH) 24-Mar-21 01:14 PM

Considering

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 01:18 PM

I will have to rent a car for the event, as mine needs an oil change. I also still have to ask my boss if I can get out early.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 01:25 PM

Started to notice the winds are more backed in the WS then they have been for the past day or so...could be huge. I’d figure they’ll extend that MDT north too the TN/KY border. Mention day 1 high risk

Can see a small chance of this going high day 2 but doubt it

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 01:27 PM

I mean, whats the point of Day 2? A high risk at any time will get people's attention. So might as well wait until you have more confidence. (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 01:32 PM

Regardless messy storm mode or not, strong to violent tornado chances are nuts

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 02:13 PM

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Feuer/status/1374782779729317892

Jacob Feuerstein (@Jacob_Feuer)

The words used by the SPC are chosen carefully. I've created a script that checks for the word 'violent' in the 1730z d2 outlooks issued before each of the top 10 tornado producing days each year since 2005. Only four events fit the bill: 4/14/12, 4/24/10, 3/01/07, and 4/07/06.

5

Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) 24-Mar-21 02:45 PM

i'm currently debating whether i have the motivation to chase this one

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 02:46 PM

I may not be able to get off work. I would only go if I could stay out of trees and preferably in IN.

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Mar-21 03:35 PM

Well, the 18z HRRR definitely doesn't make me feel good...

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 03:36 PM

How is it lookin

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 24-Mar-21 03:37 PM

What is the 18Z HRRR doing???? I'm looking at like ????

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 03:43 PM

What is it doing?

I havent looked yet lol

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Mar-21 03:45 PM

Let's just say it looks very discrete

with several rounds

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 03:45 PM

nevermind

I just looked at it. Holy crap...

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Mar-21 03:46 PM

gonna post a couple screenshots

Very favorable soundings also

the would-be Columbia TN storm is feeding on this

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 03:47 PM

HRRR chose nothing short of a superoutbreak from the looks of it. I hope this doesn't turn out this way.

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 24-Mar-21 03:47 PM

one thing i'm noting here, all of these soundings are favorable for 60-70kt storm motions

this is nothing to mess with

Harrison T. (Austin, TX) 24-Mar-21 03:49 PM

SREF sig-tor ingredient probability valid for 21z Thu

Austin | (Grand Forks, ND) 24-Mar-21 04:15 PM

reminder the HRRR is one solution in the range of infinitely many

5

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 04:16 PM

Of course.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 24-Mar-21 04:25 PM

i wonder if they stick with MDT due to last Wednesday

Michael C. [Memphis, TN] 24-Mar-21 04:25 PM

Doubt it. Tomorrow looks plenty more potent than last Wednesday, to put it lightly.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 24-Mar-21 04:26 PM

It does

Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL) 24-Mar-21 04:35 PM

As a note, Victor Gensini is doing another briefing for tomorrow at 730pm central time tonight for those interested

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 24-Mar-21 05:25 PM

Just saw a sounding with over 8 stp at 9 am in the morning. Yeesh. Decent cap and pretty strong EML. I'm hoping the storm motions slow down at least a little, we could be looking at tornadoes moving as fast as 70 mph.

A bit of backing in the mid levels could definitely tank the longer track, violent threat for now...hope that holds.

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 24-Mar-21 05:31 PM

Phil Campbell comes to mind with that kinda speed

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 05:36 PM

https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu/status/1374830673203236872?s=21

Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu)

LIVE update from central Alabama targeting the #tornado outbreak anticipated tomorrow, including the threat of long-track, violent tornadoes across a multi-state region including much of MS/AL into central/western TN and even into northern GA late tomorrow night @RadarOmega_WX https://t.co/uaZ0K6chFZ

Likes

114

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Mar-21 06:05 PM

My one complaint. BRN shear values are too high. Favors multicellular

Also, that storm motion is just brutal

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Mar-21 06:08 PM

Almost 70knts.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Mar-21 06:09 PM

Fast moving wedges...

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:20 PM

Anybody know why KGWX is down?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Mar-21 06:21 PM

https://tenor.com/view/gotta-go-fast-sonic-the-hedgehog-fast-speed-motion-blur-gif-18342829

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 24-Mar-21 06:22 PM

No and that’s not good.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:22 PM

I really hope its just maintenance because if not... it will be bad.

3

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Mar-21 06:24 PM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 06:25 PM

That radar does not seem to be down on my end by the way.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:26 PM

Well I just checked again and now it seems like KGWX is up.

I wonder if its a glitch

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Mar-21 06:26 PM

Luckily appeared to just be a brief downtime for maintenance.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:27 PM

Thank god. I am gonna need KGWX big time tomorrow for chasing.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 24-Mar-21 06:27 PM

That may have been the case.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Mar-21 06:28 PM

Gonna have to pray that none of these radars go down tomorrow.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:30 PM

Absolutely!

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 06:31 PM

or the NOAA radio towers

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 06:31 PM

Can’t get over how nutty tomorrow is looking

Going to be leaving the house when Day 1 rolls out

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Mar-21 06:32 PM

new warning by Gun Barrel City for half dollars and 60

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:32 PM

Tomorrow looks very serious. Big time severe weather outbreak.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 06:32 PM

Going to be the biggest chase day I’ve ever been on

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Mar-21 06:33 PM

These storm motions are dumb. I hope tomorrow is a failure. 60kt wedges are biblical tri state tornado bad

8

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 24-Mar-21 06:33 PM

IF a HIGH risk is warrented, this would be my 4th HIGH risk I’ve ever chased. (5/18/17) (5/20/19) (3/17/21)

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Mar-21 06:33 PM

Pretty sure that meant to go in #03-24-2021_ar_la_ok_ms_tx

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 24-Mar-21 06:34 PM

yes Jacob

sorry

my bad

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 24-Mar-21 06:34 PM

no problem

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 06:35 PM

This event is so big the warnings extend all the way into the day before (edited)

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Mar-21 06:35 PM

The wording of a likely upgrade to high this early is never a good sign

I'm hoping for those BRN shear numbers to be accurate and we get multicells with short tracks

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 06:39 PM

I feel high shear days can just shred the storms, I have seen that many times. However, there is so much CAPE forecast, these updrafts are going to be very robust. idk. We will just have to see. and

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 24-Mar-21 06:44 PM

It takes 15 minutes for a storm to go from 20 dbz to ef4. Tomorrow will give enough time for violent to form but I doubt tracks will be that long unless winds deviate from the forecast

You could end up with some violent cycling storms however

Jason Myers (Wichita Falls, TX) 24-Mar-21 06:54 PM

Mean BRN Shear for long track tors is 275 m^2s^-2. Need >100 for long track sups. I’m betting it’s enough to get a few long track tors even at only 207

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 24-Mar-21 07:01 PM

Got the car fueled up for this morning; Leaving at 1 AM

3

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 07:05 PM

GET SLEEP!!! Forget about weather somehow and let your body rest. (edited)

2

Tristan Lane (Woodstock, GA) 24-Mar-21 07:08 PM

caffeine it up! /s

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 24-Mar-21 07:19 PM

The LFC's for S IN are very high above the LCL. If storms can form, they will likely be photogenic. The CAMs seem to be showing a space between the Low and the warm front crapvection that has the conditional potential for some photogenic and tornadic supercells in the evening hours.

Right near Evansville, 01z. Now this is likely at or just after dark. However, The conditional threat is there. And its a H*** of a lot closer than AL. And much better terrain.

This is a sounding from the NAM3km at 00z, right off the SW tip of IN. NAM3km also shows a similar look to the HRRR, with clearing out of precip after the morning storms then a broken line/semi-discrete clusters coming through around sunset.

But look at those LFC's. These will be sculpted beauties right as the sun sets. If I am lacking in my interpretation, please someone inform me. I am in this Discord to learn.

(edited)

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 25-Mar-21 01:21 AM

Our first observed sounding of the day!

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 02:09 AM

just saw it went high.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 25-Mar-21 02:10 AM

not shocked at all

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 25-Mar-21 02:15 AM

Not suprised

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 03:14 AM

I really don't like this in Dixie. Plains is where I need to be.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 25-Mar-21 04:11 AM

HA

Once again guys being lied too!

I swear can’t make this shit up

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Mar-21 04:18 AM

You're not able to chase?

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 25-Mar-21 04:19 AM

Shit you not

Shits getting real

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 25-Mar-21 04:32 AM

What happened?

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 04:32 AM

he got told to go home.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 25-Mar-21 04:32 AM

Oh man

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 04:37 AM

Probably for the better for him. I mean if it's going to be like SPC says. You don't want to be around this.

6

It gets real very fast and makes you regret being there.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 25-Mar-21 04:41 AM

Ok this is just scary right here

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 25-Mar-21 06:51 AM

Yeah it's disappointing, but the jungle on a high risk can get even the most experienced chasers killed if they let their guard down.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Mar-21 07:29 AM

OH valley fixing to get some action though too on this

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Mar-21 07:50 AM

Both CAMs agreeing on semi discrete UH storms moving through SW IN around 23z - 00z timeframe. Will have an hour of sunlight, followed by one hell of a lightning show for my commute home.

Holly Pajak (London, ON) 25-Mar-21 08:20 AM

For some good lightning shots if you can

2

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Mar-21 08:55 AM

Latest SPC discussion says who's ready for fast moving wedges...

Michael C. [Memphis, TN] 25-Mar-21 08:55 AM

Strongest wording observed in the SPC outlook since 5/20

Josh S. (Crest Hill, IL) 25-Mar-21 09:39 AM

I don’t think I’ve ever been spooked by an event but man today really does look like something else.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 25-Mar-21 09:54 AM

Obs are very impressive. Already 2000+ cape, and the EML has advected well east.

Looking like a potentially very high end event that could go well into the evening

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 25-Mar-21 09:57 AM

big yikes on that end

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 25-Mar-21 10:25 AM

HRRR is still pretty messy. With that being said, it wants some late supercells to evolve in the evening hours as well.

Everything is there in the obs, the only question is evolution at this point

S. F (Montreal, QC)🇨🇦 25-Mar-21 10:58 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1375097681442312197

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

The important thing we see from these early maps. Nothing has changed. The forecast is still very concerning and we have not observed anything which could lower the potential threat.

Justin | @Helicity (NOLA) 25-Mar-21 11:59 AM

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1375115093034233858

NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC)

10:59am CDT #SPC_MD 0253 , #alwx #mswx #lawx, https://t.co/2nHAcSArwu

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-Mar-21 12:29 PM

1

Ken McWatters (Tulsa, OK) 25-Mar-21 01:25 PM

First TOR warning of the day. Watching James Spann online. Debris signature on radar S of Tuscaloosa

2

Eric, Sioux Falls (KD0MVL) 25-Mar-21 01:37 PM

Watching Spann myself

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 25-Mar-21 01:54 PM

Watn to know what you guys think of the MS cells right now, and why they are so clustered. Are you guys expecting the cells in northern MS, or behind that mess, to develop into supercells? Or are we looking for that mess to break up into semi-discrete supercells? \

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 02:06 PM

Jordan is there in MS.

To me it looks linear.

Josh H (Tampa, FL) 25-Mar-21 02:25 PM

yeah it's looking linear to me too.

Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) 25-Mar-21 02:36 PM

It looks like there's semi discrete cells aloft...those cells could become dominant and create just enough space for themselves to develop tornadoes

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Mar-21 02:42 PM

NWS was saying earlier that due to the huge amount of moisture the storms can be strong and still closely spaced.

I am still hoping to head out to Evansville IN, get there right around 00z. Hopefully catch something right before dark. Then get the lightning show afterwards.

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 25-Mar-21 03:36 PM

I can't get out of work unfortunately. I still plan to chase when I get off, but it likely will be just driving a few hours to see some lightning. Being a grown-up with responsibilities is tough. I guess it gives me a better chance to pray for all those in the path.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 25-Mar-21 03:54 PM

Convergence zone and Marine warm front intersect in the area around Corinth, Miss. Could be spot for cleaner supercells to initiate. From there race northeast.

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-Mar-21 06:30 PM

Looking bad in central alabama boys. The day is young

Josh H (Tampa, FL) 25-Mar-21 10:08 PM

wow they can't get a break in alabama.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 11:08 PM

Dashcam. Driving up on on the meso when my house got Tornado warned today. See inflow and Meso and teaching my kids, plus staying calm. http://www.wkateam.com/weather/events/march25th2021/2021_0325_151637_959.MP4

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 11:18 PM

4

3

Going Green..

James T. (NW OH) 25-Mar-21 11:26 PM

Solid chase @Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC)

Great pictures too, nice cut on the first one!

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-Mar-21 11:27 PM

thank you James

B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱ 26-Mar-21 02:23 AM

Big ups, definitely.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Mar-21 03:59 AM

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 26-Mar-21 12:08 PM

Nice catch!

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-Mar-21 01:07 PM

Nashville is going to survey some damage in the suburbs. See what they find hopefully Friday afternoon.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Mar-21 01:15 PM

oh yeah that's going to be updated soon.

Cait French (Nashville, TN) 26-Mar-21 01:20 PM

NWS Nashville is checking Lewis and Wayne counties today. Will be interested to see if they check on the Smyrna cell.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 26-Mar-21 01:30 PM

I would imagine so. I was listening to the RCSO and Smyrna radio feeds and they found a good deal of weather related damage. Not sure if it was straight line or not, but I'm guessing the survey team will make it over there either today or tomorrow.

Cait French (Nashville, TN) 26-Mar-21 01:43 PM

One of my friends sent me a video from there and it looked like a funnel at the very least...

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 26-Mar-21 01:48 PM

I was exhausted last night and didn't even look for video but from what I heard from RCSO it seemed like the damage stretched a decent distance.

I had actually done a lot of campaigning for a state Senate candidate in that area a decade ago so I recognized a lot of the street names

Cait French (Nashville, TN) 26-Mar-21 10:42 PM

3 tornadoes confirmed for the NWS Nashville CWA last night (edited)

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 26-Mar-21 10:48 PM

Yeah I suspected the one near Rock Springs Rd based on scanner traffic last night

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Mar-21 10:50 PM

you ok Cait, friends and family?

Cait French (Nashville, TN) 26-Mar-21 10:53 PM

@Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) Yeah, none of them were close to me and my family lives in East TN. We're all good. Thank you so much for checking!

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-Mar-21 10:53 PM

oh Good same with my family out there.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 27-Mar-21 07:52 PM

My family in franklin didn't even realize a tornado had hit until they saw in the news the next morning

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 28-Mar-21 12:54 AM

Ditto my cousin just north of Franklin. Rotation tonight again. Seen better tilt 2 or the Ft. Campbell radar. Hopefully nothing. However the flooding is pushing FF emergency but they are not there yet.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Mar-21 02:21 PM

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/364269766623363075/826158159860858900/Screen_Shot_2021-03-29_at_2.png

Duncanville, Alabama Tornado now EF3 (edited)

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 29-Mar-21 02:35 PM

That was the one before the big boi?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 29-Mar-21 02:37 PM

It was the first tornado of the day I believe

So probably