My focus is North Mississippi Saturday late afternoon, but I’m not sure about actually going. My target is south side of the Enhanced. Believe warm front will make it to I-40 in Tenn; however, I’m more interested in a likely outflow boundary farther south.

I was skeptical of 10% esp hatched. Looked at constant pressure forecasts and forecast soundings and did find some encouraging signs. First nearly straight west 250/500 mb. 700 mb is near the just right temp. 850 mb is SSW but that’s fine in Dixie, esp if upstairs is nearly straight west. 925 mb is straight south. Hodos generally look good with any mild kinks up high. Then the outflow will enhance low level SRH. (edited)

Finally, the moisture can fast track back since the front never cleared the Gulf. Perhaps most important, actual low-level CAPE is forecast below 800 mb. Only question is whether daytime stuff actually fires on the outflow, south of WF stuff. HRRR is wrong, over forecasts sups Detla to Bama. NAM only has one cell Miss. Awaiting the two ARW versions. See if they match conceptual model. End post. (edited)

Chase vehicle is currently undergoing maintenance so I cannot chase tomorrow.

I tried looking for a rental so I could still make it out there but that didn’t work out. Good luck to those chasing tomorrow.

Good environment for elevated supercells in N IN tomorrow.

Transmission is out of my chase vehicle atm so I get it. That's why I couldn't chase the panhandle event a couple weeks ago

Dude, you've got the tranny dropped out of the Titan right now?

Driveshaft is out at the moment. Will get it fully dropped tomorrow. Gotta replace the torque converter. I almost sprung for an upgraded valve body, but honestly I can do that without pulling the trans so I'll save it for later. (edited)

Chase target OFB, convergence. Driving solo to meet MEM chase partners. Next update lunch.

Is there a reason you're targeting further east?

Southern AR is probably an easier area to chase than N MS

I mean S AR is going to be timed much later I get that, but still

80/60 TOA

Going north from Corinth, Miss

Almost to Henderson Tennessee

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) are you on the Hohenwald cell?

Thanks @Cait French (Nashville, TN) we are home safe. So we followed the Henderson Co. Tenn. cell on Hwy 100 while it put down a likely tornado in Middlefork few miles north of Hwy 100 on hwy 22. We should have been in excellent position, even had good air visibility and structure. Oh but the stupid trees and hills. Some of the worst chase terrain in all of Tenn. Perfect forecast. Arby’s in Corinth. Perfect nowcast. Even perfect road. Nothing to show for it! Oh well it was fun meeting up with Memphis buddies and the chase was nice.

Glad you're all safe! Even bad chase days are better than no chase days!

Morning @Sam Soud (Jacksonville, FL) Saturday is literally the first time in recent memory the Delta actually verified. Several previous outings Ozarks sups would die in the Delta. Of course when we go crap terrain the Delta verifies. We verified too, Henderson Co Tenn, but were unable to achieve visual even with Hwy 100 paralleling the storm. Safety first. Great Pains awaits too, so didn't push. Season is young. Finally the convergence zone is common around the Mississippi Alabama border. Creates a nice boundary intersection with outflow. Favored Dixie Climo. (edited)

I knew the timing on AR was quite a bit later, chasing TN early and blasting west towards the MS border was actually feasible yesterday which is kind of a cool thing to think about. I've always noticed that northern AR has a tendency to bust more often than not, but I've never noticed the same in southern AR. What do you mean by "the delta"? I've heard that term before but never had it explained to me.

The Delta is the very flat few trees Agricultural land there in East Arkansas. Starts Missouri Bootheel. Goes down the Mississippi River in northwest Mississippi and Louisiana but more narrow. East central Arkansas is probably the wide spot. Named for the Mississippi River Delta. Usually it's a bit broader region like the Lower Mississippi Valley. Storm chasers of course only care about the truly flat part. It's incredibly flat. Delta is flatter than Kansas, more like eastern North Dakota. We should have given it another chance, lol! (edited)

Does that delta area cause storms to bust in some way, or is it just that you've had a bad history with storms there lol

I've my hypothesis about downslope into the Valley. Saturday LLJ ever so slightly veered aligned with the Delta and favorable. Backed is downslope off Tennesse and Mississippi bluffs might be unfavorable low level vertical motion. Just a weak hypothesis. Zero evidence.

Usually we want backed LLJ. Slight veer acceptable Dixie Hoosier and Alleys. Too veered no good. Also downslope from Ozarks for Delta. Was Saturday just right? (edited)