CAMS looking like we might get some i-70 magic tomorrow. still suspect on the moisture return, by the dynamics are all there

models relying heavily on crap-vection keeping CAPE down tomorrow. what to do when the model expects a failure mode? what happens when the failure mode fails? (edited)

Yeah

We will have to see

Local chase only, I think

Hey I am just outside my first slight of the year. Wish I had the opportunity to chase it today.

very strong mass convergence ahead of the dryline in SC NE and NC KS

moisture is just as good as forecast already, might be a little better. today might overperform. CAMS have 1-2 solid supercells with long UH tracks in C KS

with the current setup i think you'll get some very photogenic supercells if you chase today. but tor odds are unlikely expect for in merger zones / outflows

could see a sneaky tor or two up near the triple point around Hastings, NE. lcls will be lower and you could get some transitional cells in a narrow band

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021040612_NAM_015_40.43,-96.36_severe_ml.png

NAM/RAP/HRRR all with a sneaky tornado threat after dark in SE NE. cape gets pulled north, CIN doesn't re-establish due to strong advection. low level hodos are good but bulk shear is funky. could have some wandering / embedded supercells /w rotation

Getting some nice morning storms here in Lincoln right now.

the very strong moisture convergence / advection combo going on probably should upgrade this to a 5% tor day from a 2%. STP's stay in the 2 range until midnight.

shouldn't you be in class right now? what you taking?

I don't have class for another 20 minutes, and its a METR programming class using MatLab.

matlab? gross. i was a fortran man

is adam houston still teaching dynamics? i used to chase /w him when he was my instructor

Yes he is!

Great guy. Hoping to get to work with him on the TORUS project soon, but that is a conversation for a different channel.

all 3 HRW are going nuts on SC KS. big time cell tonight. but other cams like NC KS /w some triple points in NEB

SREF says what??? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f015.gif

about to get a round of wind / small hail in omaha. was warned earlier. still growing upscale tho

Small storm just went thru. Clouds scraping the ground. Nice scud. Very low lcls today

RAP Mesoanalysis showing very strong convergence near phillipsburg KS to concordia just SE of the vort max / surface low. looks like we are getting stacked today

i'd be paying close attention to the hastings to great bend area early this afternoon. not sure how stout that EML is

Where are you targeting

i'm workign today and getting a siding quote tonight. so it's armchair for me

Oh ok

but i'd be between phillipsberg and concordia. maybe i-70 to sit and watch. there is another southern mode down west of wichita that HRW was picking up

more photogenic down there, probably. but conditional. we could get some sneaky tors up in SE nebraska today /w HP garbage

FORTRAN! Gross, I am a MATLAB guy...

you haven't programmed until you've had to do physical met. models with fortran. 1000 lines of calculus

on a unix machine none the less

the cams really liking that area just S of great bend for tornado activity. they keep trying to root a supercell down there /w a decent UH swath

Try coding CFD in C++, Numerically integrating Navier-Stokes...

slights pulled north into NE due to strong heating / advection

We did get some decent convection earlier in ICT. Wonder if there's any residual boundaries out there for them to feed off of.

Winds are 31 mph sustained gusting to 45 mph here.

Is cloud cover going to be an issue? Looking at visible satellite, there seems to be a lot of it.

Looks like there may be one in C KS west of Salina. Pretty sharp cutoff between the CU field and nothing.

ongoing crapvection was forecast by the cams. it's even stronger than forecast, but its' further east. storms are actually back-building into the omaha area borderline severe at times. low level shear is solid too. could complicate later

i would keep an eye on those elevated showers over central KS. those are the type of signs that there is a little energy there aloft ready to really get things going.

boring elevated shower starts to root into the CU field and boom

VERY strong convergence signatures near great bend / hays KS. second signature up near central/NE Neb

early crapvection was firing in a weakness in the CIN. CIN appears to be taking back over now. we could have a quiet period until as late as 6pm. but most cams break out KS as early as 3pm

several very noticable boundaries lying around. one across central KS> another into central NE and another across SE NE. all wandering around just waiting

75/60 here in omaha. pretty juicy

well, for april. i mean. it was 85/45 yesterday

really really good convergence along the dryline in C KS all the way to the OK border. maybe we'll see a tail end charley storm after all

showers trying to ruin the warm sector in SE nebrasaka.....and we've got upslope t-storms in N CO. is this june?

CU field apparent on the dry line now. clear as day.....CIN holding tough.. will it fire?

wow. new NAM3km is HEAVY on UH tracks. a wall from C NE to S KS. pretty deep too. major hailers with some tors possible. could we still get that 5% tor day?

Well the latest SPC kept everything the same just now

40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. (edited)

here in omaha i'm just hoping for a nice MCS overnight. could use the rain

i would like to present to you alliance nebraska. its 38F. snowing. thunderstorm /w tons of lightning nearby

such nebraska going on here. (edited)

SRH back there is like 600. if there ever was to be a snownado. that's it.

https://twitter.com/VelocityChasing/status/1379533486781038594

uh....18z NAM is in. that SRH went up A LOT. https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2021040618/006/srh03.us_c.png

600+ 0-3 in that lower dryline area. IF anythign can get going. bulk shear be damned, that's gonna spin

EHI spikes to 10 just W of wichita. at 00z. we got ourselves a game boys!

this may sound like a dumb question... does EHI take into account the helicity for one?

NAM has a legit monster supercell forming just S of great bend then jetting NE and holding overnight /w a bow echo transition

EHI is the integration of cape + helicity

Thank you Royce

err, cape * helicity?

so you get a balanced index regardless of it being a cape heavy or SRH heavy day

ah

any time i see numbers close to 10 i get excited. that's pretty solid. anything higher than 12 is top-end events (edited)

so there is the risk for a long lived supercell with a transition to wind overnight then, correct?

that's what NAM/HRRR/HRW are all betting on

ok

LCLS's are VERY high in that area. so hail is the main threat. as the LLJ picks up LCLS will lower and there could be a tor risk somewhere in there

with EHI that high, you could get explosive develpment /w landspouts early as well

https://i2.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2021040618_006_37.85--99.28.png

sample sounding infront of the forecast supercell

the hodograph there is not overly impressive Royce

at least at that point

0-3 is all that matters to me. chasing here in Nebraska i'm used to upper levels that are basically zero bulk shear in june/july

and the 0-3 is impressive in that sounding

now, will the downdraft be crapping into the inflow or the path of the storm thats another story.

never a dull moment in the world of weather

this is why with this sort of storm you always chase tail end charley. inflow should be unimpeded from the SE, downbursts will get pushed forward ahead of the storm. so it will be able to survive on the unstable air to it's south, riding the boundary axis it creates for itself. eventually the cold pool becomes too much and it bows out

ah

a june setup in April, about 400 miles south of normal

interesting

meso analysis shows CIN dropping below 50 and even 25 across the target areas. 2k cape now as far north as NE NEB

wtf is question mark for current weather mean?

I don’t know. This day seems to be getting weirder and weirder as time goes on tho.

Triple point initiation in NE. Solo boy going near dodge city

Rap shows SCP is up to 7 in SC KS feeding that big boy. And here we go!

Royce, do you think that the cold front might be moving a bit too fast and could undercut the event?

Quick burst of convection on the ks storm. High based. Looks like we could get alot of burst and bust cycles

The front is moving hella slow. Slower than forecast.

Ah, I didn't know that. Thank you. I didn't look that far into it.

https://twitter.com/SCOchasers/status/1379561778674167814

This storm down in kansas is tiny at the moment and does seem to be struggling with the cap a little bit (as expected).

Lcl sky high still. Give her time. She's moving pretty fast toward the good stuff.

Dawson county NE storm looking like a hail maker. More trying to fill south

Yeah that storm over the Cozad area definitely looks like just a hailer for now.

That hailer just went warned, as expected. Here we go!

The towering cumulous is starting to fire along the KS/NE border - worth watching as time goes on as the cap is a little bit weaker in this area.

would not be surprised to see a warning or two come soon for the cluster between La Crosse and Garfield

I'd pay close attention to this storm just west of Garfield...

that supercell near Garfield is starting to take shape

The mesos are weak at the low levels. But they got a chance

Both Nebraska cells have very decent mesos at low levels but velocity is weak

Sandhills is a Christmas tree of mini supers. Elevated. Not enough people out there to care if there's a tornado

https://twitter.com/spotternetwork/status/1379587150161842182 there is a wall cloud reported in KS.

Bottom 2 cells both have mesos. Bottom one is close

Vels are still below warning criteria

Mesos are really stretched SW to NE. Elongated. Lack of upper shear means no stretch in the vertical

seems like the southern most storm near Garfield is getting undercut a bit by the dryline

Hard mode:. The dry line is really just a wind shift and is actually causing better meso rotation

Still a good meso on that cell. Gotta be huge hail

New line of storms firing right over omaha. Yay

Models handled this very well. Too bad no for reports. Would have been super photogenic

Embedded mesos in the KS squall. Some tor threat overnight

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)

Wasn’t bad for structure

looked like some nice cells down there, LCL's just so high hard to get anything down to the surface