First one!

Can we request days?

To be added

Yes you can as long as they are legit enough. lol.

looking like a double barreled low could be setting up. surface low will be in NW IA. upper low over KC. could setup a negative tilt scenario /w some cold core actions as well. liking IA into MO for some sneaky action based on NAM

I'm favoring the area south of St. Louis down into the bootheal, but that cold core up into Iowa is me thinking

nam3km has cold core UH streaks moving N and NW all the way to omaha....maybe i'll get something!

Looking at the models throughout the day I do like this cold core setup into southern Iowa and northern Missouri Wednesday afternoon. I’ll be out wandering Wednesday afternoon looking for photogenic mini supercells and tornadoes.

I'm having trouble pin pointing a target area for my friends and I, We definitely want to get a supercell and hopfully a tornado! I'm thinking the bootheal. Maybe by tomorrow evening I'll have a target area (edited)

Bootheel into NE AR. Best overall odds around 6-7pm. Might get some firing earlier further NW

I now see a trend on the HRRR looks like the storms form in south western missouri and they mature around 2:00 PM, also still scattered (edited)

Was hoping for something in Texas a bit further west, but no dice. Looks like I’ll be sitting this one out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

75%. very decent. or go chase the cold core tubes up north

Where can I find this?

SPC. It's the SREF. Sig tor ingredients

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php

Thank You!!!

What's everyones thoughts on SWMO tomorrow?

that is a rather large 5% tornado probability outlook

Mention of an upgrade to Enhanced also.

feels like an enhanced day to me. ingredients are there. too many failure modes to really 'lock it in' tho

crapvection is a big one. and upper level winds area bit sketch

upgraded to ENH. big upgrade on 10% tor size

fits this pretty well: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2021040703/SREF_prob_combined_0.01_30_500__f021.gif

there is a TON going on right now. the surface low broke into 2 pieces, 1 went into MO following the MCS. the other stalled and is near NW IA. the stalled one actually became dominant, and the upper low is hanging way back in central KS.

today just got alot more complicanted than forecast, and i think ENH is a good guess on how it will evolve

keep an eye on that outflow in S MO. it's moving south and shoudl stall out soon. it's got convergence along it and it's acting as a wind shift. further west the convergence ahead of the upper low is now clear. there is a solid cold-core forming in E KS, moving slowly NE. could push into SE NE/SW IA/NW MO by noonish

finally, there is another area of focus along the training cold front in E OK. this area is moving pretty fast and already has good indexes ahead of it. CIN should build in and hold the sector clear behind that first wave, setting up a decent chase scenario in AR/N LA

cold core has real potential today. 55F/50TD in many areas. if we can any sun that cold really set it up. the upper low is really deepening and should pass up toward omaha. already this morning several thunderstorms trying to form in the cold-core. best alignment would be around 1pm-3pm for some quick spin ups

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) What's your thoughts on SW MO?

springfield area looks interesting. lots of convergence in that zone. indexes going up. CIN is eroding fast, it might go too soon. 3pm is ideal time for that area but could go faster

70/40 TOA just issued

that line lit up really early. EML was weak. gonna be a messy messy day. best tor odds won't happen until later imo

Headed to Helena AR... playing the delta

His moisture return: Wack. His Bulk Shear: Wack. His EML: Wack. His pre-frontal convection: Wack. Me? I'm still calling it an ENH day.

first tor warn is up

MO storms got some really funky transient rotation /w cell mergers. that's a touch one to spot / chase. some of these rogue cells moving like 60mph

mo storm had a very nice signature. RFD blew forward and some leading edge tors with a solid rear inflow jet

IA had 2 confirmed tors. Cold core with the carry. South target with the shocker