Talk about a large slight there. I suspect at least an enhanced contour being introduced within the next two outlook periods given some recent data coming in, however I would understand if they decide not to pull the upgrade quite yet.

Yep, the risk looked good to me. There’s smaller issues with this set up, but the early storms definitely look like hail producers.

really liking the theta-E ridge from DFW up to wichita falls, maybe sneaking north along the quasi front into S OK where there will be more SE winds

not chasing, but def worth a day to chase for the locals

nam3k has a couple nice UH swaths, one right near WFalls and another in W OK on the triple point. I dont have any good proxies for events that I recall. Any TX experts out there recall in the last 10 years? Been a while since we had a good WFalls target

slightly toxic but not super bad: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021042112_NAMNST_060_34.34,-97.03_severe_ml.png

This should still be a bit too far to tell but there is some interesting VBV (starting at 2km) with the NAM. NAM does have a VBV bias, and GFS does not appear to have VBV as prominent. Here are my two cents about this setup (assuming NAM is correct) and VBV in general: 1. There are plenty of examples where VBV does not affect tornado production, and in many cases it is a positive feature as it provides improved vision for storm chasers (good example would be common cold core setup veering where the precip is vented behind the cell). 2. In theory, the inflection point in forecast hodographs appears to be low enough and significant enough for some sort of updraft hindrance for Friday. The lower the inflection point, the higher the risk of detrimental impact to updraft strength. 3. On the other hand, the RAP point sounding for Dallas on 10/20/2019 has many similar characteristics, and still produced an EF3. It is attached above.

00z HRRR says no thanks to dryline storms.

The HRRR is a fickle beast

tor threat all night? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f045.gif

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f063.gif

might get some nasty pre frontal in E TX. NAM really wants to get it going there

theta-e values in TX only get up to right at 340K which is usually my bare minmum for healthy plains tors. saturday theta e's break 350 easy...

To me, it looks like a bimodal setup, with an open warm sector in SE Texas and potentially messy precip, and a triple point play out of wichita falls. the WF play is pretty conditional though, the models arent generating any cells until near sunset, and even then only one or two. I prefer the isolated but conditional setup because that offers the best chance of photogenic cells. Greater chance of a bust though. I'm optimistic something will happen at the triple point despite the thermo being a bit low, the question is will it happen before or after sunset.

I trust the dryline and the helicity. I am more skeptical that the VBV is low enough to come in to play.

awfully quiet for t minus 30hours to a decent event

I was hoping the choice between the triple point and the warm sector would get easier overnight, but the HRRR doesn't convect at the triple point until well after sunset tomorrow. Bit of a 7-10 split of a chase

I would watch that area down near austin for some early initial convection. Models aren't quite on it but could be interesting

Follow that stuff as it moves east

So far south, not sure if its worth the drive

But yeah, I'll keep an eye on it

but yeah 3+ targets there. CAMS area all over. E TX from waco to paris. N tx up near WFalls. W OK on the TP near elk city. even some have the warm front near Tulsa /w tors

dry line hasn't show up really yet. it could go big tho. models just aren't seeing it

watch that south target: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

rare 90% max contour: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

Yeah, it’s a split type day. Chase the storms that will fire well east of the dryline where the jet will be, the dryline bulge near Wichita Falls, or W Ok, where the triple point will end up being

I think I’ll likely take the risk on the southern OK/WF type storm, just because it won’t go linear until well after dark, but I’ll have to see the morning observations.

Role call, anyone else chasing this?

I might stay local if things pop nicely

I'm eyeballing targets. Thinking of playing areas west and east of Temple to Palestine, though if any of the cells in the Austin area keep up like they have been then I won't have to go very far at all.

Yeah, if I was in central Texas, I likely wouldn’t move. But I won’t get free until the afternoon.

It seems that this event continues to appear as a bimodal threat. Here is a sounding that I just pulled out of College Station, Texas at 00z. I don't like the lower levels but NAM tends to oversaturate so I won't pay too much attention to it. A nice EML is present from 700-500mb and an interesting VWP is depicted as well.

Another threat exists along the dryline as previously stated, with large hail and of course a tornado threat. Here is the sounding out of KOUN in Norman.

The pre frontal threat is think is most serious here. Tough terrain. High pop. Large initiation area with really juicy air just N of Houston.

NAM has that secondary low in near Dallas

Problem down there is the amount of initiation and storms. The merging could kill anything that tries to go, especially with the enhanced jet helping initiate.

Like I said, I won’t be able to leave until afternoon, but I’ll likely play the SW Ok, near the triple point. May end up just being a hail type chase, especially since the jet and upper level winds will be enhanced farther east, but hopefully it’s photogenic.

Cams have a couple of long track UH down low in SW OK. Big tracks. More scatters tracks in E TX but a handful.

Yeah, I think im banking on the low enhancing the shear. The low level shear is slightly displaced east of the low, but I’m hoping enough shear with the low itself with at least get 1 tornadic storm out of it, before the cold front absolutely crushed everything into a linear blob.

I will say, if any clearing happens on the dryline tomorrow, which models don’t show, then I’d expect more storms to go up, and they’d go up in a better environment

Not much has changed since last night. Two areas, the dryline in central Texas, which kicks off early in the afternoon, or the triple point. I’ll be headed to the triple point, where the low should enhance the low level shear. CAPE should be 2k-3k in SW OK, N Tx, as that area should see some clearing from the crapvection that forms around noon, which should allow temps to reach the low 70s. Going to be interesting whether everyone bites on the Childress storm, or if the dryline bulge, from peak heating, will erode the cap and pop a storm slightly more east of the triple point, in decently sheared atmosphere. (edited)

so, back to the right thread. vernon. vernon. vernon. ALL the cams

double ENH blobs? interesting...

wow that's alot of cloud debris ruining the cape in Tx this morning. but the big bend area already is around 1250 and advecting NE. strong moisture convergence just ahead of the low in the PH. focusing on that area west of vernon, tx

It’s misting in Wichita Falls. Layer seems pretty thick

Visible sat shows some clearing trying to happen back in the panhandle.

meso discission is up. convection growing upscale west of austin

stuff coming up from SA area as well

INTENSE moisture advection going on between WFalls and Abliene

67/67 in sweetwater right now. good indexes from abliene all the way down to SA building north. meso discusses this being elevated conveciton that will root over time, which models had forecast

fixed - 2 big swaths

SBCIN holding on barely N of austin, gone south of it

Update: @Edgar O'Neal (Yukon, OK) and I were on the tornado warning storm out of childress earlier. It dropped a massive wall cloud there are some great structure to it.

https://twitter.com/samdienst/status/1385726696393830403?s=21

What a day!!! 5 tornadoes!!

Well done gents. Hopefully me trolling the channel screaming Vernon for the last 2 days helped.

Today was a very good day.

Beautiful pictures thanks for sharing

https://twitter.com/MatthewGaylor/status/1385799796225495043

Great tornado genesis vid

Nice and so nice guys. Nailed it!

Y’all did great today

Thanks

NOICE! Good stuff y’all and many more to come

Damn! Nice Shots Adam! Glad you got some!...

Thanks Glen, I'm rendering video now to post on YouTube. Almost 5 hours to render.

good god.

15 minute video in 4K.

Can't wait.

And I have to redo it.

My video is finally up on YouTube to check out!! https://youtu.be/XvJfMgfxdZY

So far OUN has found EF2 and EF1 damage from two of the tornadoes that occurred on Friday. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OUN&product=PNS

That's going to be an interesting research. I believe the EF2 was a completely separate tornado, but we'll see what they find.

The video from James looks to be just to the west of where I was, but is pretty good on how all the tornadoes and rotation produced. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcftX1Owduw

From my angle it looked like one of the twins was the start of the EF2, so I am interested in seeing what the survey finds and if I get to add another tornado to the total I saw. (edited)

This was an awesome chase. It was worth the drive from Kansas City.

Good Job guys. You nailed it! I'm so jelly. Save some for me. When I'm out there. Again, this is great to see chase season in plains of 2021.