The 15% severe area for Tuesday has been expanded to include most of the length of the dryline where severe thunderstorms appear possible. Expect adjustments to this area in the coming days, including the potential for greater severe probabilities, as additional model guidance comes in.

Upstream of the early activity, a corridor of surface heating will likely occur from western TX into far western OK, and surface based storms will likely initiate in vicinity of the eastward-mixing dryline by late afternoon. Effective bulk shear from 45-55 kt will support supercells as the initial storm mode and this activity will pose a risk for large to very large hail. A relatively small window will exist for isolated tornadoes as the low-level jet increases during the early evening and before the boundary layer decouples. Some upscale growth may occur, and activity may continue east through parts of northwest and north central TX into OK during the overnight with a continued threat for large hail and damaging wind.

An upgrade to ENG risk for large hail may be introduced from a portion of western TX into southwest OK on the day 1 updates.