Models indicate that a belt of westerlies across the northern
mid-latitude Pacific may undergo considerable amplification during
this period. It appears that this will include a building mid-level
ridge axis to the west of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
coast, while broader ridging across the southern
mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific begins to shift inland of
the California coast and Baja. As this occurs, initially amplified
downstream troughing is forecast to progress east-northeastward out
of the Four Corners states.
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)02-May-21 10:45 AM
Personally think we could see a tornado or two in the 5% at sunset with the LLJ
Until then though, these things are going to line out quickly.
Low level backing lacks until the jet kicks in, and even worse, start to become parallel to the front.
Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO)02-May-21 10:55 AM
I'm acully having trouble picking out a target area for this one, (Missouri) I'm thinking this event will be a pick an area on Monday Morning. look at the observations too
Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)02-May-21 10:58 AM
Well this looks nothing like the NAM NEST (which shows a bust): (edited)
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 11:23 AM
Yeah I'm having trouble with that too. I'm thinking I'm gonna go Mid Missouri (do not want to go to Arkansas or Southern Missouri.) or NE Oklahoma but not seeing anything to make me pick one over the other.
Brad (Carthage, MO)02-May-21 12:26 PM
I’m aiming for Arkansas and then I can always stay with them as they work their way north and east
A day out watching clouds is better than nothing.
Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO)02-May-21 12:37 PM
I was just thinking that too!
Ed Tierney (Oak Lawn, IL)02-May-21 01:34 PM
Not if those clouds don't do much
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 01:35 PM
Also if I'm skipping some classes to do this, not really an issue but would rather spend my time being productive than driving through Missouri for nothing
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 01:44 PM
Tor probs expanded a ton
Peter Potvin (Pembroke, ON) ✱02-May-21 01:45 PM
Sock puppet lol
1
Norman Smith (Racine, OH)02-May-21 01:59 PM
Tuesday looks WAY better
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)02-May-21 02:03 PM
Yea, they bumped everything north to account for the N IL squall line/potential derecho (imo)
Brad (Carthage, MO)02-May-21 02:27 PM
Change of plans. I’m taking my fishing pole in case things bust like they did last time on me. I’m not sure if it looks too promising
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)02-May-21 02:38 PM
It does, but I believe its contingent on Monday performing as modeled. If we get lots of storms, that may stall the moisture advection. Or if the Cold front surges instead of stalls that would wash it out too.
Norman Smith (Racine, OH)02-May-21 02:42 PM
I agree to a degree....think it just depends on what time the impact would be on
Idk how I feel about Monday tbh
Regardless more storms could lead to more boundaries laid out
HRRR showing rapid development in NE OK Monday evening, NAM shows cap bust except near/north of the warm front in MO. I’m surprised theres no consensus. (edited)
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 04:30 PM
I was hoping to be able to decide where and whether I was gonna chase by today but with them disagreeing like they are I have no clue what I'm gonna do. (edited)
Brad (Carthage, MO)02-May-21 04:54 PM
with this showing a storm in my area I think I'm going to go out and see if it amounts to anything. I want to test out my new camera anyway. The model run earlier looked more promising than it does now though
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 04:56 PM
The HRRR is making me lean towards Oklahoma but I don't know if I want to put all my trust in it.
Brad (Carthage, MO)02-May-21 05:05 PM
I have issue with the timing. the cell moving into our area is showing 8pm. I'm considering heading a little farther west myself
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 05:07 PM
Same. That's also making me question if I want to go, don't really want to drive 4-5 hours to get a storm after dark.
Brad (Carthage, MO)02-May-21 05:12 PM
my thinking is if I can get it right as it's starting to fire off and get in behind it, it might make a cool sunset picture and then stay with it as it moves north and east so i don't get hit with any surprises
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)02-May-21 06:02 PM
The next 2 days could be huge, or nothing may happen. I would not put much stock in the CAMs atm. Its really going to come down to the placement of the Cold front and if the advecting moisture/EML is as strong as modeled.
Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)02-May-21 06:50 PM
Its an erratic setup with the upper level forcing, I think the main energy may come in after dark. I prob wouldn’t chase unless I was desperate to see something, possibly after dark in OK/MO. Still more focused on the week after. (edited)
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 07:02 PM
I haven't chased since last year so I'm pretty desperate but not 5 hours for a cell in the dark desperate. This year has really been a letdown after last years dismal season. I'm probably gonna go out next week if we get something closer but I've got finals and of course that's the week things start picking up.
However, I could end up going tomorrow since I can afford to miss the classes I have tomorrow so I wouldn't really be losing anything but my time and gas money. (edited)
Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)02-May-21 09:51 PM
Well the latest 00z HRRR is breaking the cap earlier
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 09:53 PM
I saw that, I'm gonna wait for the 00z nam to see if it has changed it's mind. (edited)
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)02-May-21 09:54 PM
I am wondering if we might get a derecho in N IL tomorrow?
Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)02-May-21 09:57 PM
I just told my parents they will.
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 09:58 PM
it's may 3rd all over again
5
Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)02-May-21 10:10 PM
Is this based off Climo or CAM?
Payton (Lawrence, KS)02-May-21 10:11 PM
it's gonna be 20 years isn't it?
also a contaminated sounding, so i didn't share the rest of it
2
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)02-May-21 10:22 PM
Great chance for Sprites
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 01:17 AM
D2 out before the D1, guess they're thinking on it
Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI)03-May-21 01:58 AM
Welp... (30% SIG Wind driven)
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 01:58 AM
5% TOR expanded a bit
Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO)03-May-21 08:57 AM
You gonna be chasing local today?
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)03-May-21 10:02 AM
With me
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 10:16 AM
@Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) somewhere in illinois along that 5 is where we've been looking. Glad to see they expanded it north
Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)03-May-21 11:15 AM
Anyone chasing IL today? Seems like a low key but high upside chase.
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)03-May-21 11:17 AM
Yes. Josh and I
We will be leaving St. Louis between 2 and 2:45
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 11:24 AM
@Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) Looks like could be a local target for you, planning on going out?
Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)03-May-21 11:25 AM
Strong theta e ridge over E IA and the river. Good moisture conv. Over NE Mo. That should advect east into W IL. Tough target day.
Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)03-May-21 11:33 AM
Of course. OK into NW AR and MO looks really interesting today. Massive convergence ahead of the low. High capes today. Shear isn't great but I still expect a ton of action down there
Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL)03-May-21 11:41 AM
Yeah I'll be out later today that's for sure. I'd be happy with a healthy dose of lightning at this point
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 11:41 AM
Pretty much my perspective haha (edited)
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)03-May-21 11:42 AM
Triple point in OK would be my hypothetical target for OK chasers.
I doubt I get out today.
Eddie Natenberg (Albany, NY)03-May-21 11:52 AM
Well the HRRR is moving things slowly west. Maybe the ecmwf was right all along, its like NWP bingo. And it sounded like it when they start doing bullet points on D1 outlooks.
Matthew Davies (Poteau, OK)03-May-21 12:29 PM
10% hatched in SE OK
Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)03-May-21 12:31 PM
Sounds like they listened to my forecast lol
Dallas VAD looking ideal
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 12:41 PM
Welp, should've called OK a day ago I guess haha
Illinois is backyard though
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-May-21 12:43 PM
Heading for the southern Oklahoma target shortly
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)03-May-21 12:44 PM
Nice. Sulpher area?
Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE)03-May-21 12:45 PM
Sorry if repost.
3
2
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-May-21 12:47 PM
Yeah sulpher area
Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX)03-May-21 12:48 PM
just gonna go out on the roof of my job and watch storms from here lol
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)03-May-21 12:51 PM
That’s what I would target. I just don’t know that I’ll have time and not sure I want to chase that area today with traffic.
Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL)03-May-21 12:51 PM
isn't there supposed to be holes in that roof right now? Lol
Tristan White (Hartselle, AL)03-May-21 12:52 PM
15Z HRRR definitely has discrete sups by like 6-7 pm. Biggest question is how long they can remain discrete and will upscale growth occur quickly? We shall see.
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)03-May-21 12:52 PM
Dallas getting another hailstorm today. Oof
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-May-21 12:59 PM
long enough for dfw to get smacked again and my tuesday is busy
Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX)03-May-21 01:16 PM
Surprisingly, no. That monster hailcore missed my house by a mile or so
With the current surface temps and dewpoints, I'm surprised it hasn't already popped off in north texas
Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL)03-May-21 02:30 PM
My current plan is to chase either along I74 or US136 in central IL today. Thankfully this is local so I can wait until storms are firing until making a move
I hope the clearing trend over W IL continues
Payton (Lawrence, KS)03-May-21 02:34 PM
I would get out before they fire, everytime we've waited until they fire off we are too far to actually make it in time.
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 02:35 PM
I don't think the models predicted this much clearing, should give a bit more of a boost to thermals
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 03:06 PM
If storms can hold together in Illinois, might be a chance
Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL)03-May-21 03:07 PM
Location on that sounding?
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 03:09 PM
@Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) sorry, I'm one to call people out for that usually lol. Near Arthur Illinois
Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL)03-May-21 03:09 PM
no i was just wondering because Im down near peoria chasing and haven't checked models for awhile
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 03:11 PM
Yeah, I'm about to head up that way
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)03-May-21 03:13 PM
There’s the meso for the watch that will soon come.
Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma)03-May-21 03:18 PM
HRRR makes it look like our Oklahoma storms may fire just before 8pm 7pm (edited after most recent run).
And civil twilight is 8:18pm. So an hour and half of decent chasing here. (edited)
Payton (Lawrence, KS)03-May-21 03:26 PM
I'm praying for a cap bust so I can feel good about not going, sorry.
1
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-May-21 03:27 PM
Hanging out until stuff forms in the southern reaches of the viewing area
Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma)03-May-21 03:28 PM
@John Choquette (Edmond, OK) Where are you at?
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-May-21 03:28 PM
Right off the Davis exit on 35
Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma)03-May-21 03:29 PM
Oh nice! IIRC there are the two exits to head towards Hugo/Durant/Atoka right there too.
larger version of latest HRRR for 9pm. This is the peak it's predicting (edited)
John Choquette (Edmond, OK)03-May-21 03:53 PM
Meandering east currently
Matt Luttrell (Norman, Oklahoma)03-May-21 04:27 PM
Madill ~7pm looks pretty good based on this latest run. (edited)
Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK)03-May-21 04:49 PM
There’s the tornado watch.
Brad (Carthage, MO)03-May-21 07:07 PM
I’m trying to decide on going down and catching the storms head on from wagoner or staying and letting them come to me. If I wait I’m hoping they’ll look a little better
Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX)03-May-21 07:23 PM
I’m targeting the storm near Denton
Brad (Carthage, MO)03-May-21 07:40 PM
I think the models are full of crap the last couple storms. I’m not convinced. I should just head down into Texas
Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX)03-May-21 08:02 PM
Switched targets. Heading towards the southern cell
This driver is SO LUCKY! He was caught in the tornado on Stevenson Road in Abbeville County. Unreal how lucky he is tonight. Trees down all around him but he wasn’t hurt. @foxcarolinanews @NWSGSP @KendraKentWx @Amandainthenews
Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO)03-May-21 09:58 PM
......................................................................
#Bust for me... (edited)
Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL)03-May-21 10:18 PM
For once it wasn't a bust for me
Saw at least one tornado and several BEAUTIFUL supercells
I ended up way further south than I originally intended
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 10:42 PM
@Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL) what storm did you see it on? Actual ground circulation?
B. Dean Berry (Pittsburgh PA) ✱03-May-21 10:45 PM
2010 Ranger....Built Ford Tough.
Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL)03-May-21 10:56 PM
Near Ashland, IL. Yeah there was a clear ground circulation but I wasn't super close to it. I'll have to look at my footage tomorrow
Gotta get back on the road now
Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio)03-May-21 11:03 PM
tornado warning extended northeast of Fort Smith
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 11:05 PM
Yeah Drake, Joey and I were on that thing watching it cycle over and over, never saw ground circulation but saw some real violent rotation above the ground multiple times around the time of the reports (edited)
Base was real high
Drake Anthony (Peoria, IL)03-May-21 11:07 PM
The structure on that storm was wild
Did you end up following that storm to the east?
Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO)03-May-21 11:20 PM
Yeah, followed it down past springfield east, ended up bailing south and getting this BEAUTIFUL sculpted supercell at sunset.
Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX)04-May-21 12:01 AM
This is the tornado in Ellis County that crossed I35
4
Jacob Prothro (Central Texas)04-May-21 02:29 AM
Skinny
Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN)04-May-21 08:13 AM
What a chase yesterday. Beautiful structure and at least one tornado. No time to upload anything. Gotta reload for the chase opportunity today in S IN/OH. (edited)
Drone footage from Stevenson Road in Abbeville County South Carolina this afternoon. @NWSGSP will be out surveying the damage on Tuesday. https://t.co/LpEaT6iJW0
Drone footage from Old Hodges Road in Abbeville County after a possible tornado touched down this afternoon. @NWSGSP @foxcarolinanews @KendraKentWx https://t.co/z4IdNdcdry
Drone footage from Stevenson Road in Abbeville County after a possible tornado touched down this afternoon. @foxcarolinanews @NWSGSP @KendraKentWx @Amandainthenews https://t.co/B7IpNGbGZS
More damage in Abbeville County. A neighbor shared these with me taken at a farm along Landfill Road. No one hurt but hearing maybe some livestock killed. @NWSGSP @foxcarolinanews @KendraKentWx @Amandainthenews
Major damage on Hwy 203 in Abbeville County where multiple huge trees are uprooted and sheds gone. @NWSGSP @foxcarolinanews @Amandainthenews @KendraKentWx
A look on Old Hodges Road in Abbeville County. It’s blocked as @SCDOTPress crews are working hard to clear debris. @NWSGSP @foxcarolinanews @KendraKentWx @Amandainthenews
An EF-2 tornado Monday was on the ground for nearly 30 miles across Abbeville and Greenwood counties in South Carolina. @jamesbrierton has the storm findings from @nwscolumbia. #scwx https://t.co/CxCfMTeCow
We have confirmed an EF-1 tornado from Monday afternoon. The tornado passed through Elbert County, GA. More information can be found at this link: https://t.co/uyCUZAFUnA
We have confirmed an EF-2 tornado from Monday afternoon. The tornado passed through Abbeville and Greenwood Counties (SC). More information can be found at this link: https://t.co/jMWydrNIQp
Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS)06-May-21 11:15 PM
Currently at 12 different states with a tornado report for this event