Stormtrack - 05-08-2021_mo_ks

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-May-21 11:09 AM

Day 4 SPC (edited)

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 05-May-21 11:09 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-May-21 11:10 AM

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 05-May-21 11:35 AM

The 12z nam is now coming onboard with the threat across central KS on Saturday

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 05-May-21 12:29 PM

Mhm

Just checked that

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-May-21 01:13 PM

Nam pulling a little further south than euro. No faith in gfs

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-May-21 02:45 PM

little worried that cap might be too stronk

south side in OK might be too capped. only show might be ont he warm front / TP and chasers will converge

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 05-May-21 02:47 PM

Yeah, the cap will be an issue although I expect 1 or 2 storms to form.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-May-21 02:52 PM

lapse rates are good coming out of the TX PH into NW OK. further south is sus

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 05-May-21 03:54 PM

Think I’m going to target S Kansas

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 05-May-21 03:56 PM

I'm thinking between Salina and Wichita would be a good spot to start (edited)

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 05-May-21 03:57 PM

that's not a bad area to chase.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 05-May-21 03:57 PM

I think I'll try to stick close to the warm front this time

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-May-21 04:13 PM

Triple point for me boys. Busy Saturday

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 05-May-21 04:39 PM

Likely sitting it out. Home with family

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 05-May-21 05:48 PM

If the low comes in farther south, the cap could really mess with this setup

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 05-May-21 05:54 PM

Knowing our luck that's exactly what's gonna happen

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 05-May-21 06:08 PM

18z GFS is putting it farther north but not sure how much I'm trusting the GFS lately

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-May-21 06:24 PM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_0.01_30_500__f081.gif

hello great bend to salina

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-May-21 07:06 PM

Hey @Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) can you explain K Index?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 05-May-21 07:20 PM

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 05-May-21 07:24 PM

Thanks man!

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 05-May-21 08:23 PM

It's the euro version of showalter index

1

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 05-May-21 08:44 PM

triple point magic

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 06-May-21 12:20 AM

Yeah, cap looking pretty strong atm

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 12:35 AM

the SPC's SREF has a much further north solution with the warm front all the way to the NEB border. that might open up the warm sector cap a bit. need another 24 hours to wait for more cams to come in

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 06-May-21 07:31 AM

Even as an OK native, I definitely prefer WFs to DLs. Definitely much more of a midwestern type chaser in that respect

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 06-May-21 07:44 AM

Good morning NAM

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 06-May-21 08:06 AM

That’s the best looking sounding I’ve seen so far in this event. (edited)

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 06-May-21 08:10 AM

SPC throwing in a hatched area for good measure

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 10:54 AM

Nam came back a bit north this last run. I'm still feeling like great bend is a good target. But it could break even closer to dodge city

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 06-May-21 11:39 AM

We’re going to set our sites on the OKC metro for early Saturday and then determine the best target. I’m insistent on KS, my partner wants OK

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 11:43 AM

I thought the cap was gonna be stronger the further south you were?

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 06-May-21 11:44 AM

I’m thinking southern KS.

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 11:53 AM

NW OK might get away with a cap break pretty early. anything that travels east into N OK / S KS will be the best tail end charley target IMO

the upper level support is lagging a bit on the models right now. could change

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-May-21 12:39 PM

hoping oklahoma stays capped so i can chase the triple point saturday and i dont have to dick around in oklahoma for koco

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 01:02 PM

How far off the low is the triple point?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 06-May-21 01:10 PM

Lol, but are you paid if you aren’t in OK?

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-May-21 01:11 PM

no but thats not a big deal lol

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 06-May-21 01:12 PM

Lol. Are you part of their C team; where they send Michael to the best storm, Nick Smith to the 2nd best, and you to the 3rd/4th best storm?

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 06-May-21 01:14 PM

The problem with Kansas is the timing of the cold front scooping SE

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 06-May-21 01:22 PM

i drive for Derik Kline (my boss at hailtrace) so we quickly went to A team so we would be sent to the best spot usually near michael because we get into the hail while everyone else doesn't

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 06-May-21 01:33 PM

Maybe that'll help with forcing since the cap is already pretty stout. But then hopefully it's not progressive enough to undercut anything that can get going.

3

Whoops...replied to John...meant for Josh.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 06-May-21 01:35 PM

@Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) yeah, that was right along with what I was thinking

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 06-May-21 02:21 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSWichita/status/1390297289080467457?s=20

NWS Wichita (@NWSWichita)

@paulstejskal @JustinFrantzen8 There is a threat for tornadoes on Saturday.

See if ICT stays on board

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 04:28 PM

Nam putting the low way up there now

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 06-May-21 05:35 PM

I like that a little better

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 05:50 PM

Get thee to Wichita

5

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 06-May-21 05:50 PM

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) what’s your opinion on Saturday

I’m just picking out what I like and dislike right now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 05:51 PM

If I was closer I would chase it

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 06-May-21 05:51 PM

I'll definitely be targeting wichita to start

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 05:51 PM

Be ready to bail north in case of nuclear cap

1

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 06-May-21 05:52 PM

Thankful for good road connections in wichita

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 05:52 PM

I'm thinking Wichita to Great Bend to start, not sure where exactly

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 06-May-21 05:52 PM

Maybe around Newton

Or Hutchison

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 05:53 PM

I think I want to start further west

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 06-May-21 05:54 PM

I’m thinking The Hutch

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 05:56 PM

Models still show the low to the west, I think the tp should be close to that unless I've got it all wrong

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 06-May-21 06:00 PM

It'll be wherever the cap is weakest/breaks along the warm front

Which is very hard to predict until day of

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 06:01 PM

That's what I imagined, why I had a general area

T Beam (KCMO) 06-May-21 06:01 PM

Im thinking about heading down 35

Wellington, Kansas looks cool

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 06-May-21 06:02 PM

I think I will drive down from KC and go to Wichita to start out.

T Beam (KCMO) 06-May-21 06:04 PM

Yeah. I'm off Saturday, really hoping cap breaks

TJ (Houston/Galveston TX) 06-May-21 06:37 PM

Wellington, Kansas, oh how I love thee.....Also great launch point to avoid the toll roads

1

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 06-May-21 06:40 PM

Thoughts on Medicine Lodge, KS?

Pratt, KS and Hutchinson, KS seem like pretty good target areas. Although I would wait for more data before picking an exact target.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 06:48 PM

Yeah I'm not making any decisions yet other than I'm for sure going out

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 06-May-21 07:04 PM

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 07:06 PM

I'm itching to get out and chase, other than my 45 minute excursion back in March, I haven't been on any real chases since last year.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 06-May-21 07:43 PM

I asked for a Pike Pass for Christmas. Best gift I’ve got in years

1

beard (fort worth) 06-May-21 07:50 PM

Kansas cap busts. TX/OK border gets naders

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 06-May-21 07:51 PM

That’s why we want to go somewhere mid OK early morning so we can surge north if we need to

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 06-May-21 07:57 PM

Yeah, from Texas, you’ll want to be OKC by mid morning ready to make the trip NW

1

beard (fort worth) 06-May-21 09:00 PM

Eh I'll stay and play with the dry line down here.

1

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 06-May-21 09:03 PM

K96 kinda day

2

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 06-May-21 09:17 PM

first one to catch a panic’d Jeff scream stream gets a cookie

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 09:27 PM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/maps/20210506_00z-fcst_valid-2021-05-08.png

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 10:26 PM

nam showing a double barreled low in KS. one upper low near dodge city and a second downwind near the NEB border (edited)

RAP now in range. 340 theta e line passes all the way to the NEB border, but keeps CIN strong and capped all event, only 1 isolated cell near great bend

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 06-May-21 10:36 PM

It seems like models consistently underestimate localized surface heating, probably due to resolution

I always bias towards the cap breaking unless its a nuclear cap, which this doesn't appear to be. It has some weak spots.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 06-May-21 10:57 PM

Has the cap been an issue this year at all? Like I can't really think of any cap busts yet

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 06-May-21 11:02 PM

hasn’t been one yet

Eric Hassfurther (Dallas, TX) 06-May-21 11:17 PM

From a quick glance, T/d spreads look really large. Worries that any cell might be an elevate beauty but with next to no tornado potential. Anyone seeing something different?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 11:36 PM

SREF says chase the NE/KS border https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_0.01_30_500__f051.gif

2

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 06-May-21 11:37 PM

any other models showing similar? Haven't had a lot of time to look at them tonight

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 11:38 PM

RAP is pulling the warm front pretty far north. NAM3km has a couple isolated UH paths in C KS, but a handful up on the NE/KS border, HP grungy city

could not be shocked to see the front make it to the border

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 06-May-21 11:39 PM

Pretty good model spread on this one, with the usual biases. I'm going to trust the fundamentals and head for the TP

1

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 06-May-21 11:40 PM

that's still where I'm leaning. no need to second guess myself the night before I head out on the plains

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 06-May-21 11:55 PM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f051.gif

sig tor odds not great, but maximixed on the warm front

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 12:07 AM

ooooh. that warm front helicity: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f051.gif (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 01:05 AM

new rap has temps near 98 in dodge city....lots of cap. but we do hit convection temp

bite the bullet boys. chase that warm front. salina to concordia

cams came in much slower. still betting on dodge city to great bend.

1

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 02:06 AM

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 07-May-21 02:19 AM

i would go to DDC area and wait.

Just saying.

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 07-May-21 02:23 AM

I think DDC is too far west. I think Royce is correct about playing the WF near Concordia or Salina

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 02:37 AM

I'm trying to decide if triple point or warm front would be the better move, I'll probably end up trying to stay towards the west on the WF (edited)

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 07-May-21 10:25 AM

HRRR now pointing near Great Bend-ish for initiation and then decent helicity swath(s) NE to Salina and even further NE. I'll be curious to see if the tail end of the convection can stay semi-discrete long enough to realize the better LL wind field. Doesn't seem like the environment around the cells would be conducive until later in the evening....as it usually seems to be with the LLJ cranking up. If I were going out I'd probably just hang my hat on the southern most cell and see what happens.

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 07-May-21 10:52 AM

Saturday will be a fairly easy target selection without models. Morning routine is to find the TP on surface chart. Then follow the WF north of Visible satellite. Could be messy right on the WF but farther down the DL a little warm aloft. I’d chase near the TP. Be ready to drop down slightly if tail end Charlie. When a dominant cell becomes apparent get on it. Proper forecasting and nowcasting will put one in position. No speeding or running stop signs necessary. Storm will take 30-60 minutes to mature vs immediate tornado, maybe even 90 minutes. LLJ cranks late and moisture is barely there. That gives time to pick the dominant cell.

3

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 07-May-21 11:13 AM

likely chasing on my own time tmrw. head to kansas in the am just go up 35 toward salina and adjust accordingly to where the tp sets up. might take some patience tmrw early evening f

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 07-May-21 11:21 AM

Already heading towards Kansas now.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-May-21 12:00 PM

Yeah, find the first cell that’s mature that’s in the right environment. I’d caution about trying to find the farther southern storm, especially if one matures north. I feel like people get bit every time going for the farthest south storm when there’s a mature one in good environment, but that’s likely a topic for a different day.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 07-May-21 12:07 PM

We're debating tomorrow... my chase partner isn't too horribly impressed with tomorrow, but I really like the look of the triple point in SW Kansas. I think we have atleast a halfway decent chance of seeing a few tornadoes on a cell that develops in the right environment, especially in that 4-5pm timeframe.... I just hope that the cap is able to let go early enough. I'm also weary of the models underperforming and downplaying as we've seen in a couple of the Texas events lately. Going to be patiently waiting for the 0Z and later models, and I will still probably pull the trigger for tomorrow anyway

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 07-May-21 12:08 PM

I feel like there's definitely a time for going south, mostly when you're dealing with a line/broken line. Get that clear air inflow

But as you said, definitely times not to go south (edited)

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 07-May-21 12:40 PM

Matt I think I capture that well in my original post. Don’t chase a beast all by itself in Oklahoma. Chase Kansas. It could be a cluster along the WF. Might have to drop to south side of cluster. That’s all near the TP. I would not drop far down the DL Saturday.

3

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 07-May-21 12:50 PM

I’ve not had a chance to look at models this morning, but just from reading between the lines here it sounds like I’ll be going over the rainbow tomorrow. I’ll probably just get up early and leave out of Joplin rather than stage somewhere tonight.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 07-May-21 12:54 PM

Am I the only one that doesn’t see much down the dryline/the secondary low

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 07-May-21 01:11 PM

I don’t think that’s gonna break at all

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 07-May-21 01:17 PM

Outside of the storms that develop by reaching ConvT, no. The action tomorrow is going to be on the warm front.

1

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 07-May-21 01:19 PM

Your 1730 Day 2

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 07-May-21 01:28 PM

I would think CTs would be so high further S on the dryline that even if something were to go the spreads will be pretty atrocious. You may get some cool high structure though.

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 02:51 PM

Cams give a slight chance you'll get a break down in W OK. Space ships most likely. I can't make it to great bend tomorrow but that would be my spot. I'll be in SE NEB seeing family so maybe I'll be near Beatrice or Hebron if the warm front gets nuts. SRH looks intense near the WF. (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 03:00 PM

Explosive convection on the warm front between 5 and 6 pm. Let's see how the other cams follow up

New nam is way way slow. Initiation in SW KS. No warm front until late

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 03:06 PM

12z nam?

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-May-21 03:39 PM

If there is anyone coming down through Nebraska and is willing to pick me up early afternoon tomorrow to chase, please let me know in dms!

beard (fort worth) 07-May-21 04:53 PM

@Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) I'm debating making the drive myself but it looks like a sunset/after sunset event and that's just not worth the 5 hours of driving.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 07-May-21 05:07 PM

Yeah

Justin (Warren County, Iowa) 07-May-21 05:47 PM

Came to the same conclusion.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 07-May-21 05:52 PM

I'm starting to have second thoughts after looking at a few soundings along the gulf coast.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-May-21 05:54 PM

What are you seeing Adam|?

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 07-May-21 05:58 PM

I'm worried about the moisture. Seeing 64° dewpoints in Corpus Christi is something I don't like seeing the day before a Kansas chase.

1

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 07-May-21 05:59 PM

+1, also worried about the moisture

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-May-21 06:00 PM

Ah yes, that makes complete sense. I didn't know if you were seeing something else other than that that was also concerning, and I didn't think of the obvious.

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 07-May-21 06:02 PM

literally was just looking at the same thing before i left the office

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 06:04 PM

It's okay I'm bringing my own moisture

3

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 07-May-21 06:07 PM

It’s May, you chase,

5

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 07-May-21 06:09 PM

Yeah I’m glad I can make a game time decision, but I’m sure I’ll be there with bells on... disappointed haha (edited)

2

beard (fort worth) 07-May-21 06:10 PM

Not if it's 5 hours away and high chance of a bust

4

I can stay in Texas and drive an hour Sunday and do that lol

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 07-May-21 06:10 PM

LOL, I agree

beard (fort worth) 07-May-21 06:13 PM

Even HRRR is calling bust lol

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 06:14 PM

What? It doesn't look that way at all

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 07-May-21 06:14 PM

After the crazy busy week I had at work I just don't have the energy to spend all of Saturday and potentially an early part of Sunday behind the wheel of my car for a long shot.

beard (fort worth) 07-May-21 06:15 PM

Yes it does. 18z shows a hailer.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 07-May-21 06:16 PM

I have May 22-31 to do marathon chases.

2

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 06:16 PM

Tornadoes aren't really the threat anymore.

beard (fort worth) 07-May-21 06:17 PM

https://tenor.com/view/gt-live-stephanie-patrick-pretends-to-be-shocked-gif-11012591

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 07-May-21 06:42 PM

I mean y’all have been chasing long enough that you only really go out for days with higher tornado potential. Some of us new guys would love at least some structure photos from hailers haha.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 06:47 PM

I'm just desperate for storms at this point

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 07-May-21 06:48 PM

Patience, they will come

But this is also in your backyard lol

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 07-May-21 06:49 PM

This is close enough to me that normally I’d risk it, but hey the gas price is a factor as well. I’m not talking myself out of going, but there’s definitely reasons I wouldn’t blame someone for opting out.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 07-May-21 06:51 PM

I've seen plenty of structure in my lifetime. I want

️

️, and since I've already seen tornadoes this year I'm not desperate enough to commit an entire Saturday for a structure/hail day. I'm not a fan of losing a windshield like some other chasers I know are. (edited)

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 06:51 PM

Yeah if I weren't in Kansas I probably wouldn't go

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-May-21 06:51 PM

FWIW, if it’s local, you chase.

If you are looking for a high tornado potential with low bust potential, you don’t chase.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 07-May-21 06:52 PM

Yup

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 07-May-21 06:52 PM

If this was in my backyard I would be out.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 07-May-21 06:53 PM

But as was pointed out earlier, if you can get to the triple point early, you might get some magic. Just can’t have it slow down like the NAM previously showed.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 07:02 PM

Sig tor ingredients up to 30. Not bad. But near 10pm

1

Classic April setup.....in may. Moisture is lacking but the TP will sti be active

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 07:04 PM

I will say that part of it is due to the fact I'm gonna be at Philmont and with the drought, I'm not too optimistic.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 07-May-21 07:05 PM

Sunday could be nice

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 07:06 PM

If this was april the low would be rapidly deepening and you'd get better warm sector action. In may not so much

Toxic a AF. But RAP says to chase Beatrice, NE. https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021050721_RAP_026_40.29,-96.62_severe_ml.png

1

Due east right movers at 15 mph. Grungy HP warm front action. So Nebraska.

Spot the theta e ridge. Chase it.

Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) 07-May-21 08:55 PM

I’m out. Good luck tomorrow everyone

1

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 07-May-21 10:27 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 10:52 PM

1

Double HP monsters on the warm front

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 07-May-21 11:05 PM

Nuh uh move that back down here to Kansas

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 11:19 PM

HRRR is the only one going nuts on Nebraska. But the other runs haven't finished yet

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 07-May-21 11:55 PM

I think I will coming out there by myself. If you need a partner or someone to talk to let me know , send me a DM. I am from Kansas City

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 07-May-21 11:57 PM

i may/maynot be able to make it. but ill be likely heading S or SW from lincoln. really like the hebron/deshler/beatrice area for tors

something that can latch onto the warm front

that SRH

HRRR with a possible tor cell on the warm front in SE Neb

1

beard (fort worth) 08-May-21 12:14 AM

@Jacob Metzger (Fort Worth, TX) quiters never score naders

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-May-21 12:22 AM

I shot you a dm.

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 08-May-21 12:26 AM

I'm with Royce, I think southern Nebraska along that WF is the only real place to be tomorrow. For me, it doesn't seem like its worth a 6 hour each way drive. We'll see.

Robert Forry (Flint Town) 08-May-21 12:31 AM

I'm in Cameron for the night. Just a shot northwest from here.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 12:38 AM

KS might get a monster, but with 2000-3000 lcls. real iffy on tor risk. warm front or bust

Robert Forry (Flint Town) 08-May-21 12:38 AM

That's where I'm leaning.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 12:39 AM

some of the HRRR / RAP runs are sneaking in a narrow bank of 3k cape to the NE/KS border. riding up along a warm front with 300+ SRH. we could get a classic Nebraska spring ground scrapper tomorrow

thinking of intercepting at lazy horse brewing in ohiowa, NE. if we bust at least there is beer

when you zoom in too far on your target.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 01:18 AM

bulk shear looks ok. SRH is bonkers. cape is fine, but worried about LCL / overdrying. if the moisture doesn't arrive until late temps will skyrocket to like 85F and the t-td gaps will bust. will have better idea by morning

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 08-May-21 01:19 AM

The 00Z raobs were disappointing

no real moisture, well, anywhere

thin at CRP/BRO

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 01:39 AM

i mean, its nebraska. i can dig up a tor at 62/54 on a warm front with SRH like this easy. but if its 85/54 gg and i'm at the brewery

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 08-May-21 08:48 AM

I'm sitting this one out, those of you in here chasing today best of luck.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 09:06 AM

I think this will be a chase for locals. I start my chasecation on Friday for two weeks.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 09:08 AM

Yeah think I'm gonna head to Salina later

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 09:19 AM

Thanks

It’s Just 2-3 hours away (edited)

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 08-May-21 09:23 AM

Best of luck to all chasing today.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 09:31 AM

Salina is where I plan to start today as well.

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 09:36 AM

I've seen like 3 others on twitter say the same thing. Everyone going there

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-May-21 09:40 AM

If I go that’s where I’ll head, but I need to decide in the next hour or two. Looks like the show starts at Great Bend before sunset

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 09:41 AM

I think it's closer to 5 down there but not sure

Robert Forry (Flint Town) 08-May-21 09:41 AM

Salina as well, but could head north to NE or west to Hays.

I saw those. Oh well. If I go home with a minimum of a case of Stormchaser, that’ll be fine with me.

1

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 09:51 AM

Oh shit I gotta pick some up too now that I'm 21

1

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-May-21 10:03 AM

What stores carry it? I’d like a 6 pack

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 10:05 AM

No clue. All I know is that it's from Free State Brewery in Lawrence.

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 10:07 AM

We all thinking Salina today?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 10:18 AM

Warm sector is mostly cloud free. Cams had it cloud covered for the most part. This has 2 complications. Much warmer surface temps mean stronger cap, mixing down. But the warm front may also surge further north than expected.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-May-21 10:21 AM

Could see several tornadoes after dark as well, when the T to D spreads aren’t as big.

1

Lee S (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 10:28 AM

Most liquor stores in a city, or decent sized town and major grocery stores tend to carry it.

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 10:32 AM

Nam, not 3k. Has the whole of N KS wide open cap by 4pm. Big start and massive upscale. Models are a mess. Time to stick to mesoanalysis

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 08-May-21 10:53 AM

I say sit in Bennington. Heard good things happen near Bennington.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 10:57 AM

I wait in Manhattan

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 11:16 AM

warm front on meso showing strong convergence from broken bow down to manhattan. front is far more negative tilted than the flat front expected

could get this will take the warm sector much further N into nebraska, but it will be quite narrow and steep

SRH gonna be huge. big hail with a couple of tors if people can see them in the HP

cold frotn also appears to be comign in from the west more directly than NW. this is good. more traditional setup

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 08-May-21 11:29 AM

who on our team is chasing today swapped around a ton so idk who the hell is going with me lol i got access to the chase truck so at least well core punch of danger noodles end up too shy today

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 11:29 AM

Do I go NE to the WF play or Salina and wait?

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 11:31 AM

I think I am going to Saline and I will decide from there.

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 11:46 AM

I'm almost to salina as well

Gonna set up a tad NW of Salina then play it by ear from there

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 11:46 AM

Party in Salina. Who’s buying lunch?

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 12:01 PM

Not me we haven’t even got out of Wichita yet

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-May-21 12:26 PM

SPc going enhanced

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 12:31 PM

Not for tors though

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-May-21 12:32 PM

Right. Coverage.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 12:55 PM

Intense southeast winds in Lincoln now. TD still pretty low

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 12:55 PM

Leaving around 1:30-2 and stationing in Salina

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 12:57 PM

My dad decided he wanted to tag along so now I guess I got a chase partner for this. I'm about to head out now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 12:58 PM

Warm front setup right at ne/KS border now. Just south of.hebron (edited)

I got roped into installing a toilet today. So probably no chase for me

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 12:59 PM

That’s

-y

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 01:00 PM

This vort max is huge and elongated. Could support a lot of storms from central Nebraska to salina

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 01:04 PM

I am finishing packing now and will be leaving Kansas City in 30 minutes to a hour

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 08-May-21 01:25 PM

Enroute to the general Salina area

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 01:35 PM

KC gonna get rocked by an MCS later tonight.

6

2

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 01:40 PM

Sitting pretty near Osborne, KS rn

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 01:42 PM

We’re in Lindsborg Kansas right now

What gas station you guys wanna meet at in Salina

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 01:50 PM

Currently in Salina at Petro

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 01:58 PM

What gas station should be good chilling in Salina (edited)

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 02:08 PM

Leaving Kansas City now and heading to QuikTrip to get gas and drinks then Salina here I come.

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 02:10 PM

Anyone wanna go in field comms?

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 08-May-21 02:11 PM

My goto is McDonalds. Recently though I feel like their wifi has been less reliable lol

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 08-May-21 02:14 PM

3

From Denver looking northeast. The high clouds are the receding cap, moving east, and the shortwave axis is just passing Denver now. Feels pretty energetic. Good luck to those chasing!

3

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 02:26 PM

I might later once things start popping off

Just kinda enjoying the sunshine and wind right now :)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 02:29 PM

Cloud deck has backfilled into Lincoln area.

Mesoanalysis shows SCP already pushed north to the frontal cloud edge

Watch the stratus deck edge for storms along that boundary. Elsewhere. Strong convergence just NE of great bend

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-May-21 02:51 PM

I am in lincoln now if anyone is headed down through this area to get to your chase spot. If you want anyone to chase with you, just send me a DM.

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-May-21 02:53 PM

Just got to Salina, KS like 30 minutes ago. Just chilling now waiting for initiation later. I have a feeling we might be moving a little westward at some point.

2

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 03:11 PM

I’m currently moving westward right now

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 08-May-21 03:17 PM

SCP and STP appears to be beginning to increase west of Salina. Time to move west.

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 03:19 PM

I just left Salina

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 03:27 PM

Initiation has shown pretty consistently to start back near Ness City...but more upscale development to the NE along the front later, where parameters may be better but storm mode messier.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 03:28 PM

Your two targets gents. One near great bend and the second closer to the NE border

That's moisture conv. Btw

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 03:30 PM

I'm headed to Great Bend but keeping the north option in the back of my mind just incase

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 03:31 PM

Towers going up in SC neb. But no returns on dbz yet

Passing on chase today. Gonna brewery hop instead

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 03:36 PM

Your right behind me lol

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 03:39 PM

looks like it lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 03:42 PM

Looks like we might get one just vicious right turner in S NE. That just dives hard into KS. Best chance for a tor today. Second area is that predicted spaceship with hail in great bend

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 03:46 PM

Heading to Salina now and then going to go north

Willard (Madrid, IA) 08-May-21 03:47 PM

Holding in Ellsworth right now. Keeping the Great Bend option open as well as going back north. I see some high based cumulus to my north.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 03:49 PM

That's probably the best idea. I'm going to find a quiet road between GB and Ellsworth to get cameras ready

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 04:18 PM

Concordia area has some sexy convergence going on. That area NW to the NE border is the big tor threat imo

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 04:19 PM

Sitting in Salina now, currently figuring out my options

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 04:20 PM

Yeah I’m in between Ellsworth and great Bend and have no idea what to do

I’m just kind of looking at surface observations in satellite right now

I’m just trying to see which place I like better

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 04:22 PM

Stay in Salina or go north...

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 04:23 PM

Better make your decisions. Almost go time

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 04:32 PM

Hodos are nuts in S neb.

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 08-May-21 04:33 PM

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 04:35 PM

I might just go north what do y’all think

Yeah

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 04:41 PM

This could be a pretty good chase day imo

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 04:46 PM

I think now it’s pretty obvious that north of Salinas the place to be

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 04:58 PM

Sounds like a watch is coming. Likely going to be a SVR.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 04:59 PM

Suprised it honestly isn’t tornsdo

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 04:59 PM

The SVR watch just went out now that you say that lol

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-May-21 05:00 PM

https://twitter.com/NWSWichita/status/1391135665136439304?s=20

NWS Wichita (@NWSWichita)

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of Kansas and Nebraska until 9 PM CDT

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 05:01 PM

If there is a tor watch j feel like it will be later and more near the neb border

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-May-21 05:01 PM

Not a long watch either, only 5 hours

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 05:01 PM

SRH is trash further SW

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-May-21 05:02 PM

With the trend northward, ICT might not see a tornado today

2

3

Tor probs are 20/5 (edited)

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 05:08 PM

Going north now

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 08-May-21 05:14 PM

Got to Ellsworth now thinking about continuing west

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 05:23 PM

Meso showing strong cin over the entire warm sector still

Eroding first near salina

Reminder that many cams didn't break until 6pm

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 05:31 PM

I am in Salina now and I think I will go further west myself

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-May-21 05:32 PM

Our best TOR risk will probably be along the WF in southern NE later on in the evening.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 05:35 PM

And we have initiation.

https://tenor.com/view/the-dark-knight-joker-batman-here-we-go-gif-3430376

And. Here. We. Go.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-May-21 05:36 PM

If we get a good WF rider today I might not have to move much to chase.

(I might have a local friend that wants to chase) (edited)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 05:39 PM

Chase downstream of the indexes

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 08-May-21 05:39 PM

North of that?

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 05:39 PM

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 05:40 PM

Anyone got an bottom on that ddc cell? 3000 ft?

3

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-May-21 05:41 PM

Here we go, let us hope that these storms don't grow upscale too fast.

3

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 05:50 PM

Spot the triple point.

3

New action near hays

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 08-May-21 05:54 PM

Yeah I can see at least 3 areas trying to my west (SW/W/NW) (edited)

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 08-May-21 06:04 PM

dewpoint depression still plenty high currently in KS

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 06:33 PM

Indexes going nuts NE of salina

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 06:44 PM

Red Cloud NE booooooys

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 06:51 PM

Don't mess with red cloud. That's my secret low precip spot

Isaac Madera (DFW) 08-May-21 07:04 PM

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 07:12 PM

?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 07:12 PM

Upload fail

1

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 07:39 PM

Guilded Rock NE storm crossed the front. Dropping back south

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-May-21 07:39 PM

Tornado watch issued along the warm front

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 08-May-21 07:41 PM

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 08-May-21 09:25 PM

B-B-B-BUST

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 09:26 PM

The sad part about today is that the tornado part might just be starting as lcl drops and LLJ picks up

Glad I called quit on the chase early. Went drinking instead

1

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 08-May-21 09:33 PM

I just couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger today even though I was in range. Too dark now under cloud base to see much anyway. There will be more chases.

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 08-May-21 10:06 PM

I'm confused...how did it bust? This went about exactly as progged.

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 10:08 PM

A couple if high based in KS. A monster grinder in Nebraska. If there was a tor it was rain wrapped. Tor risk increasing overnight

2

Pretty much what nam3km said. HRRR missed a little

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 08-May-21 10:09 PM

There was a big divergence between the models on moisture advection even up until this morning

Having trouble with the lee cyclogenesis strength/location

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 08-May-21 10:26 PM

There were storms in KS and NE this morning. Laid down a cold air boundary in the east

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 11:03 PM

Whelp. Time to pull off and wait for it to pass.

No punches for me tonight

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 11:16 PM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 08-May-21 11:16 PM

I guess this is getting rather dangerous now.

I wouldn't recommend anyone chasing that right now. Too late in the night for that, and there was a storm that passed over the area not to long before this one and therefore there might still be some flooding issues and there is definitely no dry dirt roads to work with.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 11:23 PM

I'm SE of Salina on it. Very intense storm. Non stop lightning, which has been the theme of the day. Can't see much of storm features tho

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 11:34 PM

Looks like we might have a funnel on this Salina storm. Another chaser I know that is credible is reporting such, and I am a few miles to his east and it does look like it's spinning. Really hard to tell obviously

Jonathan Jarvis (Kansas City) 08-May-21 11:40 PM

Yep, keeping my distance on this one

Mark Jack (Westmoreland, KS) 08-May-21 11:56 PM

Anyone have any updates? Radar looks like it's just dragging these winds along.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 08-May-21 11:56 PM

I'm tracking East on well maintained gravel roads to stay ahead of it. I had a good shot of the actaul wall cloud. Looked decent back by Salina about 10 minutes ago

A TON of tornado looking clouds, likely the ones prompting the false reports. I've been fooled once or twice on this one already

Rising scud under the wall cloud right now to my north. Does not look overly organized however

Mark Jack (Westmoreland, KS) 09-May-21 12:03 AM

Thank you for the update. Everyone stay safe. If anyone needs anything let me know.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-May-21 12:37 AM

Had a really good chase today

No tornadoes but a definite brief wall cloud with very brief funnel and fantastic lightning shots with great structure

Willard (Madrid, IA) 09-May-21 12:39 AM

I was just south of Salina during the tornado warning. I saw the wall cloud and I briefly did see a funnel.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 09-May-21 12:48 AM

I had left there before the warning. I saw a brief wall and possible funnel on a storm north of salina off of 81

Palmer (Weld County, CO) 09-May-21 02:21 AM

Screenshot (May 9, 2021 12:20:59 AM)

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 09-May-21 12:09 PM

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 09-May-21 12:19 PM

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 09-May-21 12:29 PM

Interesting to see if ICT investigates southwest of Salina

Quite a bit of uncertainty what went down regarding a potential tornado

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 09-May-21 03:31 PM

True, although it seems those who first reported it have backed off, realizing that they definitely couldn't confirm that there was a tornado

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 10-May-21 12:00 AM

Think we would’ve heard something by now if they were going to investigate.

2

Structure pics were a plenty yesterday even with the lack of tornadoes