https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1394163141332795397

https://tenor.com/view/hail-dents-car-hailing-hail-storm-gif-5320352

big UH cells all over. but the biggest in the E PH

for tors. here are your cams; HRRR on NM border, and well S of lubbock

UH on the 3km NAM is so weird

NSSL has tors possible near sweatwater that area

ARW has NONE in the main target area. but some in the QLCS that will hit houston??

Yeah it seems like an early MCS day like that Dallas day a few weeks back

but there is the big one boys:

Where the whole dryline went up at once

the new FV3 has a massive tornado oubreak forecast

del rio, central tx. sweetwater / childress. amarillo. SW KS

KEEP IN MIND. the FV3 is new, and is totally overblowing UH right now at the low levels

it did forecast a massive outbreak today as well for what it's worth. and we just got lots and lots of hail

so if we forecast persistance based on FV3, its a hail-call. and finally NAM3km has a giant MCS /w embedded supers /w tors

south of lubbck up to childress again

so, best bet, until we have better mesoanalysis for tomorrow morning. put yourself between Lubbock and padukah, again.

What is this FV3 model?

HRW FV3?

The FV3 replaced the WRF-NMM last week.

I'm not sold on that area for day time storms just yet. NAM3K really likes it but HRRR only hints at a few showers until after sunset.

HREF does like the cluster just south of Childress. Still I find the forecast string of pearls around Lubbock south more interesting. Closer to kinematics too. Virtual target unfortunately I’m not out there.

I have a feeling that if we get a storm to latch onto a boundary we might see a few large/strong tornadoes today. Very enlarged hodographs 0-6km (with weaker upper level shear, however that doesn’t hinder tornadogenesis all too much in my experience) supportive of strong-intense (and potentially a violent tornado or two if all mesoscale ingredients come together) tornadoes, SBCAPE values approaching 5000 J/Kg along with strong cape at other levels as well, and lapse rates in excess of 9 C/Km at nearly all levels, supporting very healthy, strong updrafts. For those of you chasing out there today, good luck and be careful!

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) haven’t seen you talk too much about today recently. What are your thoughts?

;)

Sorry been busy with meetings. I got more tonight

Too many meetings for guy who just got laid off.

(I also sell collectables like magic the gathering and I'm on a nonprofit board)

Job interviews?

That's tomorrow, glen. Lol.

Oh ok

If anyone has an MTG collection they want to move fast pst me, lol. Been doing good business

Pimp it out

Anyway, I'll be down at my command center in a few. I'll check them meso

We are capped here again.

About to go hiking. Then maybe a chase?

Thank you.

Was hoping you would go get some Texas tornadoes today glen. You

I see that the MCS heading toward houston did happen as was forecast by cams. interesting....ARW was the one with the MCS and tors in houstin. ARW also had no tors in the lubbock area

You need your first Texas tube glen.

MCS left a huge area of subsidence behind it. all the awy to Lubbock.

convergence is maximiized up toward AMA and in the big bend area. but the lubbock and just SW of lubbock is bouncing bast fast

this means we could have a 2-part initation. one near the easy-break areas far N and S. and a second in the middle late. let me check cams to see if they agree

hmmmm....lots of boundaries leftover down near midland area. this could go big on the edge of that SPC 10%. we've still got a few hours of advection to worry about first

just after 7pm near / NE of lubbock LLJ kicks up. secondary further south: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2021051709/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2021051709/SREF_prob_combined_0.01_40_1000__f018.gif

Is La Mesa a good place to go? That’s were I am heading now

thtas a good spot if things go early. but you might be waitign a while if they dont. be ready to shoot north

NM already had it first tornado. strong VORT MAX heading into the area. great sign for +tors

HRRR has a long track tor right between lamesa and big springs around 6pm

which is also the only game in town and tail end charley if it verifies

secondary target near the NM border NW of lubbock on that run

ARW has a similar solution with NM border early then E of big springs later

fv3 is worthless agian. it has a finger of god SW of AMA, with more monsters out near del rio

Nam3km has a long track in E NM, followed by a tor on the border NW of Lubbock. then some QLCS tors near Abilene later (edited)

dryline in NM is already popping /w really good convergence there.. might be worth just chasing that if you are worried about bust S of lubbock

MD is out and says tornado watch is coming.

yes

https://twitter.com/VelocityChasing/status/1394372241631109126

who thinks today busts? looks good. currently near brownfield

Just north of Lamesa

Since it looks good, it has to bust, right? That’s how it works?

I guess

Lamesa isn't bad, I almost took the road down there. It's only a few miles east of me if I need to drop down

Looks like a few showers are going up just on the NM side. West of Morton TX

i'm still worried about divergence at the surface in TX. could ruin the surface in the S PH and end up with just high based hailers

should be some convergence out here, we have some decent southeasterlies. I'm sitting on the tongue of 60 dews which is pretty rare out here im like 3500ft i think

3224' i guess

mid level lapse rates will mkae fun hailers tho if thats how this plays out

I also kind of like the mesolow over near odessa

big area of moisture convergence along the dryline in SE NM advecting into the S PH.

give it 2-3 hours and prime convergence will be in the odessa to lamesa corridor

yeah that's kind of my idea. That's why im sitting here in brownfield, I can pick off the storm I wanna grab

That ofb from earlier has diffused but should still enhance SRH a little

i hope

meso shows 3000 cape over the entire target area. cin almost gone. interesting meso low setup. i love those

Tornado Watch is out now

(well, my target area) the N PH is lower risk today until something magic happens /w advection in the next 2 hours

llj cramks up later

Wow that's a big boy watch

I'll be running right through that severe watch on my way to CO. Amarillo on 40 then up US 87 to Raton, NM

Should be a very interesting few hours. I wish I was in Texas right now.

splitting supercells near Dora New Mexico

Nice. Looking promising...

got some early firing SE of LUB and down near midland.

Looks like a cell firing near Denver City, TX.

Yeah, that cell might get a few to go East and clear up some space for those targeting other storms.

those east cells are a trap. it's on the warm front and way outside of the peak cape/SCP. not sure how long they can stay supercells. but there is good convergence so they might hang on for a while

That’s why I mentioned it. See how many get baited instead of following the mesoscale environment. (edited)

that storm west of big springs is chonky. that's a good start

Too bad Midland's radar decided to pull a KFDR (edited)

yeah i just went to view it and POOF, nada

Tornado watch expanded eastward.

Don’t want to clutter this up with graphics, but just be aware of that if you are getting out late.

The hail is no joke w/ the Big Spring storm. I left it once I got golf balls. They aren't the nice sloppy kind that mush when they hit something, they're damn hard lol

seagraves storm has small but solid hail too

Missed these views. Near Big Spring, Texas.

Wowza...

the warm front cells have a coulple of right turners pulling into the inflows. and away from the stable air. watch for tors

the dryline itself is full of splits right now. i'd say find something that's not splitting like the one on teh border and chase it

cell north of morton about to get hit /w a merger, might be the place to be. otherwise the apsermont cells on the WF looking like huge hail

http://twitter.com/NWSLubbock/status/1394427915505446919

Lubbock sees the same thing in terms of right movers.

https://twitter.com/dalhartwx/status/1394436731542376454?s=21

Decent look at this beast from SJT, sure be nice if MAF was up tho.

What a beauty. It's actually about midway between KMAF and KSJT and moving straight toward SJT.

Hope those beacons aren't accurate

CHASER WRECK

1 injured

Where at

@Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) location?

where my dot is

cops and paramedics here

its kind of bad but nobody really at fault

Damn

Big day today

Well today was a great day for structure and a tornado

Have better ones from the DSLR that’ll be up tonight

Any more word on the accident?

I have one of the parties with me taking them to hotel in Lubbock. Other went by ambulance to the hospital

Cop assigned 50/50 fault

I was on that storm Caitlyn, was alright

I managed to get those chasers to a hotel in Lubbock and now I'm on my way home. I honestly forgot names I will figure out who was involved later.

Good work Ben

Where was it?

west of wolfforth

What a day. Got to add another tornado to the books! Either my 3rd of 4th of the season. Got a bunch of timelapse of structure to look through when I get done chasing tomorrow too.

Congrats y’all

wowzers!!!

Were you the one in the white Dodge Charger?

No

I have a red camry

Okay. Someone pulled up next to us that looked a lot like you in one

I did my best to avoid people. Still ended up in the middle of it all it seems like.

Same. I did see some friends on the OU DOW team. Daniel Shaw kept passing us and waving - that was great lol

Yeah I saw the raxpol out there. They were running that thing in a clear air mode way early. They must have collected a ton of data yesterday

Sounds about right. Try to avoid the large area of chasers, still get caught up in the middle of chasers.

Chaser traffic got pretty rough on the west side of Lubbock, Texas. I heard there was a chaser accident too.

Yeah, that’s what Ben was saying. He ended up going by it, and ended up giving one of them a ride to their hotel in Lubbock (edited)

That sucks! I hope no one was hurt. I think it was a no fault accident.

50/50 fault, one injury. I think the passenger of one of the vehicles had broken ribs and was having difficulty breathing. What a day. The traffic got nuts. I sat out there with Mike Umschied for probably an hour by Denver City with no real sign of chasers. I think all the andrews/seminole people came to the storm that went into the west side of Lubbock

I tried to avoid chaser traffic like I always do and this time it cost me.

Levelland, Texas May 17,2021 https://lucasmunzlinger2020.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/img_3081.jpg

Posted my Sterling city, Texas tornado video. https://youtu.be/DyRrM5cBGrc

Nice guys!

Thanks!