Tornado (edited)

Wind

Hail

Anyone else going out today. GL and happy Tubes! I'm chasing Crystals today. lol.

I will be out there.

How’s the road network in South Dakota?

Ahem you're forgetting a state

whispers there should be 1 Dakota (edited)

That SW quadrant will be tough road system wise. You'll be battling black hills and badlands. ...mostly black hills based on where the spc drew their outlook it seems.

Terrible

Maybe I will stay in Nebraska and see what happens. I am solo today.

I think I will start my day in Chadron NE

Current mesoanalysis. Strong band of convergence from south of chadron into wy

Second card in SE Colorado. But this area may advect north a ways. I feel like Colorado has the better for odds. The E WY target looks rough to chase

One possible chase plan. Catch a storm near Scottsbluff first the. Head south to catch the monsters coming out of Colorado

Virtual chase plan of the day. Give the Palmer Divide a chance to produce again in Colorado. Could be a second chance northwest Kansas southwest Nebraska. However if I got some good tubes in Colorado I’d Calle it a day and get steak early.

HRRR has discrete supercells all the way to McCook Nebraska as they ride off the palmer. We all knoe about mcook magic

I think I'd sit in Limon (edited)

Yeah I think we agree Nebraska to Colorado. Takeaway is NO Dakotas insta-line-out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__f015.gif

7 pm near the tri state best odds

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

Dream chase would be cyclical from the Palmer Divide to the Tri State. Unfortunately Colorado usually does not cycle more than twice.

30% sig tor ingredients no joke today

Things associated with cyclical sups.

HRRR was indicating life times of 4-6 hours on the southern cells.

They will have to transform into Nebraska supers to pull it off

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) I told my friend last night who is out there right now to set up in chadron this morning so he has both options in play when morning runs and obs come in, and now he’s dropping south a bit.

Normally I hedge northeast so I can adjust to the southwest. Today might be a day to start on the Palmer Divide though. Risk of my plan is not being able to catch up to Nebraska. However there is an Interstate. My second chance drawing would be later in the day along I-76. Note that I’m virtual; so, I can reposition instantly, haha! (edited)

That Scottsbluff to chadron corridor can make some monsters but I'm worried about rapid line out

I agree with you on that. That’s why I am dropping south to Colorado.

Yep. It's why I like Limon. Options south and northward in CO as needed

3-4 long track supers in Colorado today

I really like today for people to bag a few tornadoes

Road network isn't great there, so you'll have to be in the right position at the right time

Two lobe surface vort max. One over Cheyenne, one over SE CO

I am playing the Limon side due to I live 45 min from it

Warm sector is pumping today. Gonna get some high capes. 86/71 at my house

Front range actikn already starting near Cheyenne and south of denver

10% tornado risk on the latest day 1 from SPC

https://climate.cod.edu/data/text/images/spc/co/day1/tornado/spccoday1.tornado.latest.png?v=170

Is that smoke from a fire over lake George

18Z balloon in the air from LBF. Should be pretty insightful.

Tornadoes already starting in S CO

Yep. Sounds about right.

3CAPE and surface vorticity.

I’ve said for years that these should all be one state called “Skid Mark”. I’m kidding, I love the plains.

So what happened today?

had a few tors in CO and SD before rapid upscale

cold pool grew REALLY rapidly. the Nebraska area was in between convergence zone and never really got going

pretty much what was forecast. i was just suprised how fast those cells in the palmer divide area went left. only like 2 right turns all day. shear was a bit off of optimal

Ah. I was trying to follow along from work, saw it went semi linear pretty fast

Garbage ️

I saw my first Colorado tornado today, but my video of it is ass.

left split goes left, undercuts itself by movign over the front or cold air. falls apart. the downdraft reinforces the cold pool, more storms get undercut, boom linear

part of why right movers are so key to sustaining non-linear setups

My crappy video grab of the Woodrow, CO tornado.

At least you got a picture of it. By the time I got pulled over and grabbed my camera it was gone.

I guess this was a rather short lived tornado.

One minute, by the time I stopped to properly film it it was almost gone.

That's sad. A least you got to see a tornado in colorado for the first time!

With how difficult that chase was I'm real happy with my catch. I'm at a steakhouse in Salina right now celebrating.

Ah nice. I take it you are sitting out today with all of that chaser convergence in western Kansas @Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) ?

You are pretty far from the action so I assume that you won't be able to make it if you are chasing it.

Yeah my chase partner has to work tomorrow, so the next two days are off days.

Ah okay.