Tomorrow, not looking that good. Still think an OFB may be a trigger, but even the , 500mb is crap, 850 isn’t much better. Seems to me that the only good forcing will be the OFB, and even then, tornado threat isn’t there.

The models have poorly handled the convection tonight. A true roll of the dice tomorrow.

yeah look at nam3k and it doesn't even show the stuff in KS. Let alone the bigger stuff in TX. Horrible you're fired!

Enjoy your mesoscale accidents in the tx and ok PH.

I'm expecting tomorrow to produce, maybe not as well as today

Rap has a pretty solid sig tor risk in Wisconsin tomorrow

Actually it's a big area from Omaha to wisc. The front sagging south could have quite a few supers on it

I am planning to target the IA/IL/WI border area. Starting around Davenport at 21z.

NAM 3km likes this setup, HRRR refuses to create Mesos

Anyone chasing today

I’m cutting over to the Ok panhandle to see if anything goes. Then I’m cutting up to west Kansas to get a room tonight to get ready for tomorrow. I’ll chase it back home tomorrow night. Thursday event will probably be a local chase for me.

I’m skipping today, staying in northern KS. Originally thought about chasing and staying in garden city, but kinda want to keep Nebraska in play tomorrow. (edited)

Sounds good

May go down to Greensburg area see if anything goes off

Today looks like one big bucket of meh. Weak to modest low and mid-level flow, decent CAPE, and high PWs....all scream HP bombs.

Scream elevated storms. But maybe someone can get a good structure/lightning shot

Could get a landspout of today

I think my main issue is the fact that it will be 7pm before they really start firing

Not in IA/IL! Going for the troll (but likely bust) play today.

I don't know about here. Temps in low 70's. High cloud base and cloud deck. I don't see it happening here. THere is a meso vort over me.

narrow band of 2k cape already from NE Neb up to WISC. advecting east pretty fast (edited)

current areas of moisture convergence: S MN moving east. NE KS moving N into neb. will probably get overun by the front, TX/OK PH area. best convergence on teh map today

good/ok cape across much of KS, but nothing notable on the map other than that MCV heading northeast out of state

the cold front up north is almost totally uncapped now. EML gonna suck. hurts severe risk

cap holding over KS/tx/ok. best spot today

Upper 50s for dews, western OK

Western KS is baking rn

Low dews and northwest downslope heating will do that

It aitn even that warm there right now. Warmer here

Really liking western KS

I expect a severe thunderstorm watch here soon

Currently in Davenport IA, going to zip north to Dubuque. NAM3k keeps wanting there to be a few mini sups right at the tri state area. I will stick around till 23z at the latest.

We have initiation in... Nebraska and north KS???

I'm surprised you got enough recovery in Nebraska and north KS. That junk in Oklahoma looked it was going to crap up the Kansas environment (edited)

Today ended up not doing much, Kinda feel bad for those that went to Amarillo, but at least the sun is slowly setting, so still a few good hours to drive back and not be pitch black

also, this will allow them to stay up for the 1am runs

bustish day

Amazing night time supercell in Central KS RN

BEAUTIFUL! What a catch

Holy moly

Some pretty shots there.

Forgot to mention I saw this view near Houston. Suspect that it hit on a boundary from the previous night's storms and of course the trees prevented me from seeing the base.

NORMANNN you got a good future ahead of you man, amazing shots!

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