Stormtrack - 05-26-2021_ks_ne_ok

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 12:29 AM

This looks tricky. An MCS is definitely going to form late on the 26th, before that though, there could be some tail end Charlie’s that really rotate. The shear, cape, etc is going to be good. Definitely a wind threat on this day that evening, with embedded QLCS’s, but before it goes linear, I’m looking at some storms that could produce. Trying to figure out if I want to stay in NW KS, or go to Nebraska. Nebraska looks to go linear quickly.

Another issue with this day is the HRRR continues to throw rain in western KS during midday. Kills the instability.

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 25-May-21 12:32 AM

W KS looks

ok

last, I looked a day ago. I've heard there's some downgrading on the models now. MCS rain earlier in the day eh Matthew? (edited)

2

Still it's far out for the hrrr and that can change.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 12:58 AM

Chase w KS. Nebraska might get a couple tors but they will be in actual Egypt and line out fast

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 01:12 AM

Interesting... Rap has the warm front returning north across Nebraska and getting active before dark. The entire warm sector is wide open and in good shear

Oof. HRRR has some sexy cells in the Sandhills early. Gonna be a tough call

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 25-May-21 01:20 AM

I’m telling my chase partner to set up in Hays Kansas before that morning right now so he has all directions in play. My gut tells me just west of that area is the best option right now for tornado threat but of course we need to wait until tonight and into tomorrow morning before we get anything really definitive out of it.

Before you ask, I myself am still in San Antonio, I’m just helping him out. I’ve gotten him a lot of tors in the last week and a half.

Lol.

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 25-May-21 02:04 AM

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND INTO NORTHERN KS OVERNIGHT. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 DEG C/KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER) AND RICHER MOISTURE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MATURE/SEVERE MCS. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE YIELDED 30-PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE. SEVERE GUSTS, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE PRONOUNCED BOWING PORTIONS OF THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY LATE.

(edited)

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 10:46 AM

12z HRRR from today has a couple of nice supercells in S NE ahead of the bow Wednesday afternoon, however, that storm evolution is not supported by the 12z 3 km NAM. (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:51 AM

Yep. I’ll be in northern KS. Likely going to target eastern CO/NW KS tomorrow, but want to have the option to go to SW Nebraska.

Norman Smith (Racine, OH) 25-May-21 10:52 AM

^

Really liking McCook, NE as of now

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:54 AM

HRW WRF has a cell in western KS, FV3 is farther north and has the mess in Nebraska. 3km struggles in western KS, and HRRR has cells ahead of the MCS in Nebraska and a few in western KS

HRRR has the jet ramping up in western KS, NAM says SW Nebraska where the jet action is.

Subtle difference which impacts the convergence. Atmosphere in KS is better for tornadoes where Nebraska is better for an MCS

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 11:00 AM

Pretty good agreement there of a jet stream distubance coming out.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 25-May-21 11:02 AM

I too am staring at the models trying to sort through the "McCook or Goodland" dilemma.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 12:40 PM

sig tor values maximize at midnight. of course. stupid LLJ. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f048.gif

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 12:48 PM

looking at cams. HRRR has 1 tor track early in badlands. 1 before dark near mccook/benkelman. hates KS. then has several tor tracks /w lots of cycling possible well into nebraska, even as far east as lincoln after midnight. likely picking up possible QLCS tors in the MCS

NSSL has 2 tornadic supers in W KS near sharon springs, then maybe 1 more overnight /w the MCS much further south. big difference from teh hRRR (edited)

ARW has no tors possible until...thursday morning in N KS?

FV3 as usual looks like the sky is on fire and has cycling tors in SD/nebPH/N KS

it keeps 1-2 supers together until midnight /w long track tors in N KS before the line catches them. Fv3 calling for end of world again, skeptical as usual

1

and NAM3km says only QLCS tors in central NE / N KS after midnight. skeptical at the scale

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 25-May-21 01:06 PM

I think that two or three cyclical supercells will exist between about 21z-00z at the very least. Those will probably put down a few tornadoes, one or two being strong. Those supercells will hold together a bit longer than people expect, however they will inevitably evolve into an MCS/QLCS and we will likely get some more LEWP tors into the night. (edited)

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 03:15 PM

So where’s everyone staying tonight?

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 03:21 PM

I was thinking the same thing too

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 25-May-21 03:24 PM

Norman, I'm leaving early tomorrow. I think.....

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 03:26 PM

Where is your target area tomorrow?

I think I will leave tonight for Hays, Kansas to put me in a good spot for tomorrow.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 03:28 PM

I’ve got Hays in my gps now. I think that’s a good place to evaluate from in the morning. That sizzler there is a pretty good place to eat

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 03:43 PM

HRRR going nuts in Nebraska early.

That's 7pm to 1am. Warm front action with supers

Very mesoscale accident type of day

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 03:52 PM

I have not ate at a Sizzlers since I was a kid.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 03:53 PM

Might have to take a day and drive out to the Sandhills if cams keep up this pattern

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 03:54 PM

Haha I call every steakhouse sizzler. It’s actually called Whiskey Creek I think, and there’s a Days Inn right next door

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 03:58 PM

lol was wondering what you were talking about.

Kyle Sikes (Houston, TX) 25-May-21 03:59 PM

Am I the only one looking at the Texas Panhandle this day?

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 03:59 PM

I think so

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 03:59 PM

PH looks good for hail and if you are wanting a 6+ hour drive tomorrow.

Kyle Sikes (Houston, TX) 25-May-21 04:01 PM

I'd be down for that. Might put me in better position for the next day in Oklahoma too.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 04:02 PM

I am leaving KC soon for Hays, KS to avoid a long drive tomorrow

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 04:10 PM

I'm gonna hedge on warm front action and see if central Nebraska goes tomorrow. Otherwise it's brewery tour time

6

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 25-May-21 06:41 PM

Heading for Western NE/KS border today to help with a potential need for repositioning tomorrow.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 06:45 PM

I’m headed for a steak and bed in west Kansas but I got distracted by that hailer near Salina.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 07:47 PM

I feel like that’s going to bait me tomorrow.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 07:53 PM

Feels like one of those 90% 5% days or 30% 10%+ days

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 07:57 PM

I kinda want to play that Nebraska stuff knowing how many will be in KS tomorrow, but man, that goes linear pretty quickly, and it seems like the NAM doesn’t agree. Observations tomorrow gonna come in clutch.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 08:02 PM

Mesoanalysis is the real mvp

Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) 25-May-21 08:04 PM

Driving through the night to hays, Kansas by morning

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 08:04 PM

I’m looking at somewhere between US 50 and I-70 tomorrow in western Kansas.

Jeff Mangum (Austin, TX) 25-May-21 08:13 PM

@Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) doing the same. Leaving Austin at 9pm.

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 08:14 PM

Oof. Gl

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 25-May-21 08:17 PM

Teams heading toward Nebraska early tmrw am

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 25-May-21 08:17 PM

If we can get a good sup off the dryline by like 22z it’ll track into a really good environment as the llj kicks in

1

Models are having a pretty rough go of it with this event tho I’m definitely gonna keep an eye on obs

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 08:34 PM

The Nebraska play is the low chance high reward okay tomorrow. Good luck my boys

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 08:48 PM

The 18z HRRR showed something similar to that. That’s the obvious Kansas play tomorrow, I feel.

Gabe Pena (Rising Sun, MD) 25-May-21 08:49 PM

I’m not chasing but that’s the target I’m rooting for lol

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 08:49 PM

Just got to Hays and booked a room. Looks like there’s several chasers in town

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 08:51 PM

21z RAP says no soup for sups in Kansas tomorrow.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 08:53 PM

Looks like everyone is going to be chasing this storm for the next two days. Chasers convergence is going to be really bad.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 08:53 PM

There are.

It’s May, so nothing new.

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-May-21 09:03 PM

Even moreso because Kansas was a dud last year

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 09:14 PM

Shit show from the get go

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 09:29 PM

HRRR fires both in central Nebraska and western KS now

2

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 09:32 PM

The W KS storms would be hauling the mail too....

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 09:33 PM

Yeah, it keeps them discrete after dark too, before going into the MCS

That will just continue to enhance the shear

Tomorrow morning is going to be interesting. Was kinda hoping to have to drive for a few hours before getting to my target, just to do something, but if it's truly western KS, then I might not have to go very far

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 09:36 PM

The real debate is to whether to get on the storms as they come into W KS or up into N KS after dark.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 09:37 PM

If I choose western KS, I'll be out there when they fire, just because I'm not sitting around all day for nothing

Don't mind the miles in driving from the place it ultimately goes to

Plus, likely can get a structure shot

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 09:38 PM

Agreed. My partner and I will be driving out from Wichita.

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 09:40 PM

I decided to leave Kansas City in the morning. Hotel rooms are a low supply and I am not paying a high price for a crappy room

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 25-May-21 09:41 PM

It's getting into tourist season. Hotel rooms are always in short supply this time of year.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 09:43 PM

They are also trying to make up for losses suffered during Covid

so the prices are higher than normal. I found the one I'm in roughly $50 cheaper than the others in KS

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-May-21 09:45 PM

Hays has a surplus of hotels so should help for those going their

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 10:08 PM

Things to keep in mind. RAP breaks the cap by 3pm and has a ton of convection

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:08 PM

Oh boy, NAM breaks out convection early too

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 25-May-21 10:08 PM

Primarily ones in more rural areas. Ones where there's a lot of competition (like when I stayed in Joplin a few weeks ago) are still keeping prices down trying to drum up business.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 25-May-21 10:09 PM

It seems like there are still rooms in Hays and I got mine really cheap

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:09 PM

3km breaks out tons of convection at 21z (4pm)

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 10:09 PM

Rap has the warm front without a cap all night. 3pm to 6am

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:09 PM

3km actually pulls the MCS down to KS

Leaves the warm front in KS, that's why

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 10:11 PM

The plot thickens.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:12 PM

This impacts Thursday as well, since the MCS forms and breaks up in KS

1

Welp, luckily don't have to go far tomorrow. 3 hours to central Nebraska, 1 hour out west

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 10:13 PM

That would act to shove things farther south, correct?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:14 PM

Yeah, it would have the OFB in southern KS. It does decay the MCS though, so it's not a continuing surge like the HRRR

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 10:14 PM

Where’s the prime target tomorrow now

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:15 PM

I wouldn't say there is a prime target. It's the same, western KS, or potentially central Nebraska.

Models like to form cells in western KS, where there's less veer back and MCS

But this is a change from earlier, where they only developed 1 cell out in western KS, or none, and you played the tail end charlie of the MCS

@Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) favorite model, the FV3 is just hilarious

WRF NSSL fires a storm at 2pm in western KS

All in all, morning obs are going to be important

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 10:22 PM

Fv3 is new. We don't talk about him

West central KS south of goodland if you want an isolated supercells tor

If you want to get nuts. Southwest nebraska. Maybe the Sandhills

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 10:28 PM

I will pass on Nebraska

Lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 10:29 PM

If the warm front pulls north. Nebraska will be under crazy SRH. If not. KS is the play (edited)

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 25-May-21 10:30 PM

It’s a long drive from KC to goodland

Anything for the chase of the year

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 10:43 PM

Seems like a preponderance of evidence suggests the action will be here tomorrow. Starts mid afternoon as supercells, then morphs quickly into bowing structures. I'm suspicious of the warm front actually hanging up in Kansas. (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:44 PM

Seems like the blended models don't have it into Nebraska. Blended stops at I-70

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 10:49 PM

The HRRR actually shows a meso high moving across northern KS overnight, which stops the progression of the warm front for a bit. That model has the front getting into S NE by mid afternoon, with a deep theta-e axis just south of it.

Stephen M (Wichita, KS) 25-May-21 10:52 PM

Not the Sandhills lmaoooo

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 10:56 PM

HRRR is the only one so far out of the CAMs with it up there.

But, definitely something to look at in the morning, see if there's a meso high or not

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 10:58 PM

for what its worth, dewpoints in SW Neb / NE CO already are starting to recover tonight

the front hasn't even made it to the KS border yet

front still near i-80 in nebraska going south, but it could be stopped soon since there appears to be a low forming in E WY near cheyenne

several meso-boundaries on radar visible. this could get tricky tomorrow

i suggest everyone AVOID all cams tomorrow. too many mesoscale variables. stick to your NAM/RAP non-convective variables

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 11:01 PM

Give me a cell in northern KS, one in west central KS, and one in SW KS

spread us all out

and nebraska cells

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:02 PM

ingore the cells tomorrow on CAMS. chase the indexes. the cape. the convergence. the satelite

this image is disgusting: https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2021052600/023/uh25_003h.us_c.png

how many supercells are on that at once? 8? 10? evenly spaced over 1000+ miles?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 11:07 PM

contaminated, but great hodo

2

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:09 PM

watermelons aren't real

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 11:09 PM

Yes they are

model outputted it.

It's real

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:10 PM

nothing like chasing HP wedges in the dark, right? #hallam

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 25-May-21 11:11 PM

how about this?

I'd take that as well

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:13 PM

i literally just pulled that same sounding

red cloud. 4pm. be there

long dirty nasty skewt's with funky hodos along that warm front are gonna be nuts if they break

its 5000 cape surface.....who care about the ML cape then. if it breaks its over. McCook 2.0

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 25-May-21 11:17 PM

So what does SPC say?

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-May-21 11:19 PM

Find out in 2 hours

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:20 PM

SPC's models are saying chase SW KS for a repeat of yesterday. with an MCS + rando stuff up in NE PH + WY

the nebraska play tomorrow is an early morning call based on frontal positioning

if that warm front pull north, the size of the target are increases by 3x

-14 LI? with 5000 cape? game over man, chase it

2

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 25-May-21 11:23 PM

They go mod?

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:23 PM

nam from the same spot: https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021052600_NAM_021_40.13,-99.88_severe_ml.png

who's ready to chase softballs tomorrow

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 25-May-21 11:23 PM

That 5 inch hail analog

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:26 PM

nam is useless after that hour, because it predicts such a huge cell that it blows up the entire area

80kt 850's at midnight. smells like can MCS late. a big one.

115 kt jet in late may? i'll take it

what't the largest 0-8 shear vector you've ever seen? https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/2021052600_NAM_027_40.93,-98.79_severe_ml.png

waits impatiently for 03z RAP

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 25-May-21 11:49 PM

It seems like years since a NE outbreak. Hope we get some that way.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:53 PM

2019 mccook was the last good nebraska day IMO

before that, man. 2014. 2015-2018 was a ton of busts

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 25-May-21 11:54 PM

Fixing to go watch Pfliger vids now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:55 PM

i was the only person willing to forecast that day. crushed the forecast. had to work. brutal

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 25-May-21 11:55 PM

Still blows my mind

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 25-May-21 11:57 PM

had stormed that morning. i watched the MCS roll through my building downtown. by 3pm it was 95/80 in omaha

hoping for some good days like that in june. but for now i'll take the warm front tomorrow

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 12:00 AM

03z RAP is running now.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 12:30 AM

RAP with the warm front convection into omaha by 7pm. what the...

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 01:18 AM

This event looks strikingly similar to 5/17/19

Just about 75 miles west

*East

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 01:32 AM

Okay I’m finding some intriguing stuff from 3z RAP, and frankly concerning at that.

Here are some soundings I pulled.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 01:34 AM

way to drop the bomb. jesus. how is that first sounding not contaminated. the omega levels are within the acceptable range

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 01:35 AM

That is two models wanting to kill KS tomorrow now. FV3 and RAP.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 01:35 AM

that first sounding is NAM

HRRR is also looking rough

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 01:36 AM

Yep

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 01:39 AM

whenever i see the models are pulling crazy hodos like this even w/o contam. it usually means the models are picking up on some REALLY strong advection

as in they are probably over-doing the advection. i'm skeptical

that being said, if at 9am tomorrow morning the low has dropped and the advection is cranking then i worry

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 01:41 AM

What worries me is we didn’t have much to kill the WS tonight, meaning all of that air is clean and juicy, and the shear environment is nearly untouched.

To all of the chasers chasing tomorrow, I implore you to be very careful no matter what happens. Even if it busts.

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 01:58 AM

Moderate risk

10% tornado.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 02:00 AM

No hatch Hmmm

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 02:01 AM

I think that if the models continue the 0z trend in the morning we will see a move in the TOR probs at the very least.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 02:01 AM

I expect to see a hatch somewhere on that 10% by later and if morning convection can steer clear of the dryline to see a 10 hatch along that and a possible increase to 15% hatch

Exactly

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 02:07 AM

a bit shocked they added 10% already. models are coming around but i'm not sold until morning

oh well i guess i should get some sleep

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 02:08 AM

They can always remove a 10 unhatch ig without too much ridicule

Hard to go from 5 to huge 10 hatch

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 26-May-21 08:01 AM

Wow, thanks Cody. I wish you were up here. I could use a chase partner for today.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 08:34 AM

Got some morning convection in NW Ks, SW NE.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 08:53 AM

Strong tornadoes now

A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES, IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 TO 11 PM CDT. INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

15% hatched

Tristan White (Hartselle, AL) 26-May-21 08:58 AM

...

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 08:59 AM

Definitely something I agree with

VARIANCE IN CAM GUIDANCE APPEARS GREATER-THAN NORMAL REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THE 00Z HRW-NSSL AND HRW-ARW BOTH SUGGEST THAT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL KS, OVERTURNING THE AIR MASS PRIOR TO SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE OF ALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS INDICATED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE UNLIKELY IN THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WEAK MLCIN.

I think the CAMs at 00z fired too early, and don't expect it to fire that early. It's not impossible, I just don't believe we'll see anything go up before 4pm/5pm (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 09:05 AM

The 11z HRRR had a supercell rolling from Scott Co. clear into Saline Co., KS before merging into the likely derecho. That would be in the peak time the discussion mentioned. (edited)

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 09:05 AM

I'm going to Hays I guess

2

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 09:05 AM

Been a very long while since I’ve been in a 10%+ hatched

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 09:06 AM

I think it's been 2 years since I last chased a 15% hatched

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 09:06 AM

If ICT doesn’t get a tor today or tomorrow. It’s going to be hilarious

3

2

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 09:06 AM

the south had one earlier this year, but the May 20 2019 and May 24th or whatever 2019 would be the last I chased the hatched that big (edited)

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 09:10 AM

That's true. (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 09:42 AM

Winds out of the SE in central KS, where mid 60s in dews are moving NW

3

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 09:58 AM

https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/1397542569639391240?s=20

Quincy Vagell (@stormchaserQ)

SPC mentioned the possibility of convection erupting early this afternoon. The 12z Dodge City, KS sounding shows large instability already, mostly above 2km. The convective temperature is 80F and temperatures should quickly rise into the 80s. I’ll update when 12z CAMs roll out.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 10:02 AM

If you want to kill off an hour or two the natural history museum in Hays is really nice

Glen Heinz (Greenville, SC) 26-May-21 10:02 AM

if this stuff fires off early it will damper the bigger stuff later.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 10:05 AM

Lack of capping, existing cape a concern. This could go early and hard before the LLJ kicks in

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 10:06 AM

Noticed that too in that sounding

Michael C. [Memphis, TN] 26-May-21 10:07 AM

There’s quite a bit of CAPE built up. A little bit of sfc heating to bring up that inversion will quickly open it up (no EML as well). I’m still worried about how much time we get before it grows into clusters/lines. NAM and RAP are consistent with large 0-3 km hodos but could potentially be too late (similar to 3/17).

Michael C. [Memphis, TN] 26-May-21 10:21 AM

https://twitter.com/CameronJNixon/status/1397557759957213186

Cameron Nixon (@CameronJNixon)

This is the big leagues for supercells https://t.co/8kqIGE0Qyc

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 10:29 AM

yeah those hodos get bonkers late. but i'm wondering how much of that is induced by the predicted MCS. and how much will matter out ahead of that MCS

looks like the warm front has gone more vertical than zonal. making the 'warm sector' much smaller than I had hoped. big time target in NW KS here up to about mccook. too many but looking at moisture advection i'm trying to see where it's going

advection this morning /w direction

+ is increasing advection / arrows. X is sinking air right now

this is mass BTW, not moisture.

there is a surface vorticity over SE CO as well as once just S of the surface low in WY

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 10:41 AM

So much CAPE that we already have a T Storm warning

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 10:41 AM

best hope that EML shows up soon

they should burn off as cap stabilizes in the next couple hours. could drop some nice outflows

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 10:44 AM

This

Just amazing. It's 10am and we have 3k+ CAPE already

Caleb Brown (North Platte, NE) 26-May-21 10:46 AM

18Z and 21Z launches planned from North Platte this afternoon.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 10:50 AM

waiting for a new run on SREF: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif

have to open to see the update. stupid discord

see you all in omaha at 7am? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 11:04 AM

Hrrr has that NASTY discreet sup down around Great Bend at 00z

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 11:32 AM

Take a look at this!

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 11:34 AM

Where did you sample this?^^

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 11:36 AM

Wakeeney has been in my mind the last few runs.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 11:38 AM

Ok I see now. Those coordinates are so tiny on my phone. Haha. I’m 10 south of there now

I’m leaning towards Scott City also with that north south 83hwy

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 11:46 AM

This is contaminated, but that shear environment is nuts

2

And then there is this one.

3

4

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 11:54 AM

Not sure if this helps anyone out at all, but the HRRR 14z run initialized the dewpoint at 68...it was actually 70 at KICT. Not sure if that's evapo-t or not, but it's something acutely interesting.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 12:10 PM

Well cape won’t be a problem today.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 12:20 PM

Anyone concerned with the HRRR not firing anything off in KS later this afternoon? Been this way the last two runs.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 12:23 PM

Think obs watching will be more important than model watching now

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 12:23 PM

Good point

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 12:24 PM

Upset I can’t chase today. Grandpa in hospice

6

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 12:24 PM

I can’t remember where I heard it, Maybe Tim Marshall, but they said never let a model talk you out of chasing. Besides, It’s May.

4

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 12:24 PM

Good luck to everyone put there today looks like one of the best plains days in the last decade

4

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 12:27 PM

New SPC outlook out. They hatched it further south to include Garden City\GB area

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 12:30 PM

15z hRRR has like 1 good cell in N ks. giant derecho. i dont trust it

1

RAP makes more sense. STP spike to 7+ around 7pm

good avection just S of goodland around that time. thats the spot. then chase Northeast (edited)

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-May-21 12:42 PM

Honestly having the hrrr not convect the whole western third of Kansas gives me way more confidence in isolated supercells lol

9

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 12:50 PM

i woudl watch these cells in KS moving into nebraska. there isnt' anything stopping them from rolling across the entire state here. they are just behind the warm front. for anyone crazy enough to chase SW neb today

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 12:51 PM

Nice winged-foot appearance to the one in NW Thomas Co., KS on radar. Storm has some mid-level rotation.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 01:03 PM

Some's day is fubared before it even started: (12:01:17 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS GLD: 10 N Brewster [Thomas Co, KS] storm chaser reports HAIL of tennis ball size (E2.50 INCH) at 10:52 AM MDT -- storm chaser reported golf ball to tennis ball size hail. hail broke their windshield.

5

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 01:08 PM

Bruhhh

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 01:20 PM

Right there with ya man. Wife just had surgery yesterday and still recovering, so I’m watching the baby.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 01:26 PM

HRRR has current cells in NW KS surviving across the entire state after a right turn. a couple isolated supers in central neb. KS with 2-3 isolated monsters

2

Problem is. Last HRRR run had zero supers in KS. So it's being fickle. I trust the other cams that says balls out action today. Maybe earlier

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:40 PM

OMG that storm ongoing now is going to go nuts. It's riding an East/West cape gradient on the edge of the cap with easterly moist winds feeding into it. It looks like its becoming surface based and turned hard right about an hour ago.

Storm near Colby

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 01:41 PM

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:42 PM

man that's a beaut

NWS Goodland mentions that there's convective initiation along that Outflow Boundary just east of Gove City.

Likely surface based supercells soon. That area up by Colby and east has a 300+ effective inflow helicity and 150+ 0-1 SRH (edited)

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 01:44 PM

It saw It was near Selden and decided "let me turn right"

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:46 PM

http://www.twisterdata.com/vad/vad.php?radar=KGLD By the way, this is incredible

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 01:47 PM

Checking in from Holeridge NE

Looks like I need to drop into KS then west for the main show.

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 01:48 PM

We left the storm up in Colby to set up for later

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:48 PM

yep looking at the 1 minute refresh on awips now that is probably the right idea. Everything is pulling towards goodland. Great CU scott city to russel springs to oakley down to wakeeney

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 01:49 PM

Wakeeney cell that just went up already warned (edited)

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:49 PM

yeah im watching the one minute updates and that thing is going up FAST

boom explosion. That outflow boundary from great bend to lacrosse to quinter to oakley to brewster to almost st francis is going to unzip into sups

Right now heights are actually rising. Just wait till flow turns more southwesterly

Wow.

2

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 01:51 PM

I don’t know if storms can really thrive until this early evening environment. I think we will hold out until 500mb jet kicks in later

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:53 PM

Hey I'm sitting out with ya. Wrecked my car Monday, had to bring it home yesterday and cant chase. Starting to really get regret

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 01:53 PM

Sucks. How ya been man? Been a while

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 01:54 PM

Sorry to hear that Ben. Wish you the best

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:54 PM

Been good. Got rid of social media. It's amazing.

It's all good Michael. At least mine was drive-able and I wasn't at fault

1

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 01:55 PM

I thought you said you were going to get a rental and go back out. Glad you are okay, though, and at least you still have all of these contacts and reference points.

To go off of today*

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:56 PM

Yeah I couldn't mathematically make it all work, and it's not exactly easy to get rentals in Oklahoma City right now. I didn't get home until about 7 last night.

No way could I have turned around and done 16 of 24 hours traveling to/from NW KS to/from central oklahoma

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 01:57 PM

Makes sense.

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 01:57 PM

So I'm trying to get wheels today and chase tomorrow

or jump in with someone

Joey Prom (Lafayette, IN) 26-May-21 02:01 PM

Hey Ben, I am actually looking for a chase partner this weekend

I plan to chase Thursday, I would like to chase E OK

I have a Honda Civic with Michelin Defender Tires

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:02 PM

well problem is I have someone with me and I'm on call this week (yea... yea.... I can't even) so it's kinda complicated. I have someone I can jump in with, but I hate chasing with him (see my moore footage) but I have to be back at my house and crap. I hate having a complicated life LMAO

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 02:05 PM

Yeah I get that.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 02:07 PM

Hrrr wanting line of sups in w/sw Kansas again

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:08 PM

probably right. That one near Wakeeney is a beast already

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 02:08 PM

Don’t we all

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:09 PM

yheah and you got a wife and kiddos, i just have a couple cats i gotta take care of.

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 02:22 PM

Yea I’ve been busy the last few years. Got three kids now. At least I was able to come off the road(trucking) and get a local trucking job. Trying to get out chasing more. Was out with Chris Rice a couple weeks ago in KS. Today looks way better

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 26-May-21 02:32 PM

Please. I'm omw to stay in Liberal for the night and would love some storms before I can't for the rest of the summer

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:38 PM

Funnel on hays cam?

nice wall

https://www.ksn.com/skyview/hays/

Kevin White

SkyView Hays

KSN SkyView Network

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 02:44 PM

its trying

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 02:46 PM

Chris Rice just sent me this

It’s definitely trying

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:49 PM

It's on KSN cam

funnel

https://www.kandrive.org/camera/1438/@-99.38267,38.90226,10?show=roadReports,constructionReports,trafficSpeeds,normalCameras,winterDriving,weatherRadar#camera/1438/3094339288

KanDrive

Reports regarding traffic incidents, winter road conditions, traffic cameras, active and planned construction, etc.

god for the love of all that is holy get to hays

They just warned it for baseballs and tornado possible

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 02:54 PM

I hope everyone goes there. Really.

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:54 PM

if you aren't in hays you're about to miss a tornado fest

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 02:55 PM

it's taking an even further right turn. starting to move S/SE

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 02:56 PM

yes right along that boundary

In addition, with recent VWP data from the KDDC WSR-88D indicative of low-level southeasterly/veering flow in the 0-2km layer quite a bit stronger than RUC forecasts, potential for strong updraft rotation -- and associated tornado potential -- may warrant tornado watch issuance earlier than previously anticipated.

its got a beautiful overshooting top now

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 03:01 PM

I was just about to post that Ben.

And the RUC already had some crazy indices later this evening.

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 03:03 PM

rfd about to wrap around that wall cloud it looks like

Jake the VTP is like a 6 up there already

Whoever is in Hays right now is about to have an epic fucking chase

1

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 03:04 PM

its heading right into 4500 cape along the boundary. nothing to stop it. no cin. no cold air. nada.

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 03:05 PM

its got perfect shear to take it right along that boundary. It just has to start ingesting it and I dont think its stopping

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 03:06 PM

I'm east of salina. So you say that I should go west? Hmm don't mind if i do

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 03:07 PM

My friends all passed up on that storm

Jake Wallentine (Wichita, KS) 26-May-21 03:08 PM

Hail on cam now.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 03:08 PM

I’m so pissed at them. They were on it earlier and decided they wanted to go further west

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 03:08 PM

Once you get to Ellsworth and west, shouldvhave a great view of it

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 03:08 PM

Inflow kicking up again

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 03:09 PM

You can see it from a long distance away

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 03:09 PM

yeah go west. That stuff blowing up on its flank is interfering

i wish I could see it visually in person

im no good at looking at radar and bad angles

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 03:15 PM

Can see it (tower/anvil) damn nicely from salina

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 03:16 PM

Nice tower going up near Great Bend from my vantage point

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 03:19 PM

https://twitter.com/WXgage/status/1397630612824104965

Gage Shaw (@WXgage)

MAJOR rotation just S of Ellis, Kansas moving toward Hays. @NWSDodgeCity @NWSGoodland https://t.co/EnpRWqsfWE

Interesting 18Z from North Platte

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 03:23 PM

No rain shaft yet but can see lightning in the tower now

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 03:25 PM

5000 cape now feeding hays cell

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 03:25 PM

im watching some camera from a chaser and its beautiful

lots of hangys coming out of the wall cloud

radar looks much better too, it cleared the other crap out

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 03:30 PM

@Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) we have someone streaming it right here in the VC

Join us if you want, he is on the storm and close.

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 03:45 PM

Looking at the cell near Hoisington from the north

Starting to get its act together

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 03:46 PM

18z DDC looks prime.

2

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 03:55 PM

oh my

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-May-21 03:58 PM

I'd wait for southwest Kansas. Tough to keep watching Hays from afar, but stay the course. SW KS environment is superior.

1

Jeff Mangum (Austin, TX) 26-May-21 03:58 PM

100%

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 04:04 PM

Tons of chasers here in Scott city just shooting the shit and watching live streams. We will go in a bit

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 04:04 PM

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 04:04 PM

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 04:04 PM

God damn....

Josh Zitko(St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 04:05 PM

https://twitter.com/VORTEXJeff/status/1397644206261288962?s=20

Jeff Frame (@VORTEXJeff)

301pm Tornado northof Loretta @NWSDodgeCity

Jacob Melton (Owosso, MI) 26-May-21 04:12 PM

https://twitter.com/WxPaparazzi/status/1397646300477329414

Doug Kiesling (@WxPaparazzi)

Well that escalated quickly... 4"+ hail on the south side of Hays Ks 15 minutes ago. @NWSGoodland #hail #kswx

Ben Holcomb (Norman, OK) 26-May-21 04:20 PM

Darin Brunin just sent me that of the hays storm

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 04:46 PM

Just set up in Colby KS and wondering what the heck is up with this mess of to the east.

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 04:58 PM

you missed a bunch of tors in hays

and 5" hail. so there's that

i'm thining NW KS is still a good plan. SW KS looks like it could cap bust

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 05:13 PM

I see 2 reports according to SPC lol

Not a watch or even an MCD out for most of the MDT risk area yet

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 05:14 PM

cams didnt have anything until 6-7pm so it's overperforming

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 05:14 PM

Currently just watching towers struggle

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 05:15 PM

Hays/Russell cell looks HP AF lol

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 05:28 PM

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 05:29 PM

Is that the blip west of Scott city?

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 05:29 PM

Yes

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 05:30 PM

Scott city horde is rushing out

A.Michael (Kansas) 26-May-21 05:31 PM

Anyone on that Russell TOR warning

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 05:34 PM

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 05:38 PM

Is SPC site constantly giving a "Forbidden" error for anybody else?

Finally got it to load.

Wind is very strong here in Colby seems to be out of the east though

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 05:41 PM

WT 0210 PDS PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 80% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 80% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

3

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 05:42 PM

Ellsworth cell tried real hard to produce but crapped itself. I'm heading toward sott city now

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 05:42 PM

Tor reported in NE ugh

This is the phase of the chase where I get antsy and feel like I'm gonna miss everything if I don't blast toward an ongoing storm, lol.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 05:43 PM

Thats why im leaving an on going storm before its too late lol

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 05:44 PM

Watch #210 is a PDS

4

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 05:52 PM

Nebraska doing what I said it would. Been a while.

1

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 06:55 PM

Meanwhile us KS folks are watching a pretty but unassuming LP, lol

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 06:55 PM

Give it another hour or two, might get something at dusk

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 06:55 PM

Give those storms about an hour and you’ll get some crazy tornadoes

Really worried for SW KS. Gonna have several supercells down there around 8 PM producing tornadoes

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 06:57 PM

At least the right mover finally got severe warned, lol

Base looks to be shrinking attm but I'll take your advice and be patient.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 07:09 PM

Now to follow this guy north to Oakley or go after new development down by Lakin...

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 07:10 PM

I was hoping everyone stayed north.

Been in Lakin watching this thing. Base has shrunk in the last 20 minutes.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 07:12 PM

This Oakley cell is dying as well

God this is annoying

Why aren't these things exploding out here?

Even tornadic cell going in the nrn Texas ph

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 07:16 PM

LLJ

give it 30

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 07:24 PM

Lack of convergence. Indexes are falling off a bit. That's ok.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 07:28 PM

So, KS bust confirmed?

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-May-21 07:38 PM

Still time. Texas had a little more convergence. See if LLJ can save Kansas.

Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 26-May-21 07:38 PM

Yeah

@Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) look at 700 mb in the DDC OBS sounding

Jeff House (Chattanooga, TN) 26-May-21 07:39 PM

A risk all along. Still ugly? (edited)

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 07:45 PM

Tower w of Garden City looks halfway decent visually, problem is it hasn't changed in the last 45 minutes.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 08:02 PM

I gave up on Ks. I can get on that beast in NE in short order

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 08:06 PM

Looks like it’s finally DDC’s turn

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 08:07 PM

I'm blasting south to DDC. I was trying to catch the NE of Colby one but screw it

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 08:10 PM

Yea, I think DDC is the play if you can get to it.

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 08:12 PM

nevermind its 2 hours lol. I thought it was more like an hour

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 08:13 PM

Funnel already reported on it

Vince Waelti (Rockford, IL) 26-May-21 08:14 PM

f

John Choquette (Edmond, OK) 26-May-21 08:16 PM

sees derik and frank heading for the storm on the nebraska kansas border

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 08:31 PM

Lets see if I can circumnavigate DDC cell...

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 08:39 PM

Rock hard tower right in front of me but it's the left split.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 08:47 PM

Right split still looks like crap on radar, though.

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 08:50 PM

TOR in NW KS

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 08:50 PM

Ofc

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 08:52 PM

My friends are on that rn

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 08:53 PM

I’m in Lenora

Almost.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 08:59 PM

Annnnd warnings dropped on my storm

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 09:05 PM

SW KS never stood a chance lol

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 09:06 PM

SW KS wasn’t supposed to pop until about an hour or 2

Randy Cooper(St Joseph, MO) 26-May-21 09:06 PM

Kinda glad I wasn’t able to chase today. Seemed like one of those days that’s constantly pissing me off

A.Michael (Kansas) 26-May-21 09:37 PM

Not my photo. But posted from KWCH news. Stated taken NE of Ludell

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 09:42 PM

Ow

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 26-May-21 09:47 PM

Grant Leighty (Kansas City, MO) 26-May-21 10:46 PM

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 11:27 PM

Kansas busted, Nebraska and every other state sure didn’t

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 26-May-21 11:27 PM

I guess SW KS is a bust today?

2

Jacob Punch (Kansas City) 26-May-21 11:27 PM

PDS was probably still warranted, at least Nebraska portion

2

Jacob Prothro (Central Texas) 26-May-21 11:31 PM

24 filtered reports, probably will be more once Texas panhandle surveys are done

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 11:37 PM

Ya

Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 26-May-21 11:39 PM

Spot the warm front

Royce Sheibal (Papillion,NE) 26-May-21 11:48 PM

Never stop chasing the warm front -me

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 26-May-21 11:54 PM

No. SW KS busted. The parts of KS that had storms did pretty well.

https://twitter.com/colbygw13/status/1397700992049848330?s=19

Jared Ireland (@colbygw13)

@NWSGoodland video of the tornado in Rawlins County, KS this evening looking north and west. Time was 5:39 CDT. https://t.co/vCIfOmgXvW

Likes

265

I wouldn't call this a bust.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 11:55 PM

Didn’t rainbow bust though.

That was the shear funnel.

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 26-May-21 11:58 PM

@Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) Was that on the DDC cell?

Payton (Lawrence, KS) 26-May-21 11:58 PM

Got my first nader today so I feel pretty good about today. Especially with it only being an hour from where I'm supposed to be.

1

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 26-May-21 11:59 PM

Yeah

Andy Wehrle (Madison, WI) 27-May-21 12:02 AM

You were probably somewhere in front of me then.

Matthew Gaylor (OKC, OK) 27-May-21 12:08 AM

Probably. I never went up to the storm west of Scott city. Was debating going to the panhandle. Then decided to watch the shower the formed SW of Scott City, then once again went towards the panhandle, only to go east for that cell.

Nathan M (Neosho, Mo) 27-May-21 12:09 AM

Myself and a small group of other chasers found this gem and were just glad to have something to take a picture of. On to tomorrow.

Matthew Harding (Wichita, KS) 27-May-21 12:33 AM

We were on the storm southeast side of Russell county. Huge meso:

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 27-May-21 12:35 AM

Drew Terril (Yukon, OK) 27-May-21 01:01 AM

If given a choice, I'll almost always play the WF. Assuming storm motions aren't at too much of an angle relative to the front. This is especially true in the Midwest. I'll take IL WF magic over a Lieowa TP/DL every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Adam Reagan (Norman, OK) 27-May-21 10:21 AM

Frustrating day yesterday, but this was my saving grace. (edited)

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Pat Kepka (Russell Co. KS) 27-May-21 10:27 AM

https://twitter.com/LacewingPhoto/status/1397754500518236160?s=20

Lacewing Photography (@LacewingPhoto)

Vickie and I drove up to the Little River area this evening to watch the clouds roll by. We followed this wall cloud for about 10 miles back towards Inman on a backroad when it spun this ugly little rope. #kswx @NWSWichita @KWCHRoss @JayPraterKAKE @LisaTeachman

Jim Martin (Findlay, Ohio) 27-May-21 01:23 PM

https://twitter.com/MrTwisterChaser/status/1397938401769312264

Mr Twister (@MrTwisterChaser)

From the real camera. I can 99.9% guarantee I will never see anything this amazing at 10:30am again. Brewster KS yesterday. @ReedTimmerAccu @JimCantore

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Cody D. (Lincoln, NE - UNL) 27-May-21 02:04 PM

Wow!

Michael Onesty (St Louis, MO) 27-May-21 09:49 PM

Props to everyone who got nice structure yesterday!

Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 27-May-21 11:03 PM

"Mothership" Colby, Kansas https://lucasmunzlinger2020.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/img_3264.jpg

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Lucas Munzlinger (Dittmer,MO) 28-May-21 11:01 PM

Definitely a interesting photo I took on May 26,2021. Michael, Caleb and I where on I Rd Kansas looking northeast towards the Hill City / Bogue, Kansas storm this photo was taken around the 10:10 - 11:30 PM timeframe https://lucasmunzlinger2020.files.wordpress.com/2021/05/img_3527.jpg

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Jordan Doane (Ringgold, GA) 29-May-21 06:18 PM

https://twitter.com/jordandoane/status/1398750317093793794?s=21

Jordan Doane (@JordanDoane)

Captured the gorgeous elephant rope out tornado from the supercell in Hays, Kansas. 5/26/21 approx. 3:23pm. This is my first real DSLR tornado capture! #kswx #kansastornado #Weather #wxks #tornado #stormchaser #canonphotography

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